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    Forecasting Demand For Services

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    Fergy Christin Maitimu
    The document discusses forecasting demand for services and includes the following key points: 1) It describes different forecasting models and methods including Delphi forecasting, exponential smoothing, and time series forecasting. 2) It provides an example of a Delphi forecasting exercise to predict what future election a woman will become President of the United States. 3) It also gives an example of how the Delphi method was used in the nuclear power industry and includes the results of three rounds of forecasts. 4) Additionally, it shows a historical analogy graph comparing two time series data sets from 1977 to 1986 and another comparing two series from 2000 to 2020.

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    Forecasting Demand For Services

    Uploaded by

    Fergy Christin Maitimu
    18 views6 pages
    The document discusses forecasting demand for services and includes the following key points: 1) It describes different forecasting models and methods including Delphi forecasting, exponential smoothing, and time series forecasting. 2) It provides an example of a Delphi forecasting exercise to predict what future election a woman will become President of the United States. 3) It also gives an example of how the Delphi method was used in the nuclear power industry and includes the results of three rounds of forecasts. 4) Additionally, it shows a historical analogy graph comparing two time series data sets from 1977 to 1986 and another comparing two series from 2000 to 2020.

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    forecast

    Original Title

    11 Forecast

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    The document discusses forecasting demand for services and includes the following key points: 1) It describes different forecasting models and methods including Delphi forecasting, exponential smoothing, and time series forecasting. 2) It provides an example of a Delphi forecasting exercise to predict what future election a woman will become President of the United States. 3) It also gives an example of how the Delphi method was used in the nuclear power industry and includes the results of three rounds of forecasts. 4) Additionally, it shows a historical analogy graph comparing two time series data sets from 1977 to 1986 and another comparing two series from 2000 to 2020.

    Copyright:

    Attribution Non-Commercial (BY-NC)
    Download as PPT, PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Flag for inappropriate content
    Download as ppt, pdf, or txt
    18 views6 pages

    Forecasting Demand For Services

    Uploaded by

    Fergy Christin Maitimu
    The document discusses forecasting demand for services and includes the following key points: 1) It describes different forecasting models and methods including Delphi forecasting, exponential smoothing, and time series forecasting. 2) It provides an example of a Delphi forecasting exercise to predict what future election a woman will become President of the United States. 3) It also gives an example of how the Delphi method was used in the nuclear power industry and includes the results of three rounds of forecasts. 4) Additionally, it shows a historical analogy graph comparing two time series data sets from 1977 to 1986 and another comparing two series from 2000 to 2020.

    Copyright:

    Attribution Non-Commercial (BY-NC)
    Download as PPT, PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Flag for inappropriate content
    Download as ppt, pdf, or txt
    of 6

    Forecasting Demand for Services

    Learning Objectives

    Recommend the appropriate forecasting model for a given situation. Conduct a Delphi forecasting exercise. Describe the features of exponential smoothing. Conduct time series forecasting using exponential smoothing with trend and seasonal adjustments.

    Delphi Forecasting Exercise In what future election will a woman become President of the United States?

    Year 2004 2012 2016 2020

    1st Round

    2nd Round

    Final Round

    2 4 2 2 2 2

    2024
    2028 2032 2036 2040 2044 Never

    3
    3 2 2 2 3 1

    2
    4 3 3 2 4 2

    2
    2 4 4 4 3 3
    4

    Delphi Method Nuclear Power Industry Example


    1
    No jdgmt. Strongly disagr.

    6
    Disagr.

    5
    Disagr. Somewh.

    6
    Uncert.

    15
    Agree somewh.

    35
    Agree

    6
    Strongly agree

    Round 1 Round 2 Round 3

    Historical Analogy
    50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 Series 1

    600 500 400 300 200 100 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 Series1 Series2

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