ExxonMobil 2014 Outlook-For-Energy Rollout Presentation

The Outlook for Energy:
A View to 2040
William Colton December 12, 2013
This presentation includes forward-looking statements. Actual future conditions (including economic conditions, energy demand, and energy supply) could differ materially due to changes in technology, the development of new supply sources, political events, demographic changes, and other factors discussed herein and under the heading "Factors Affecting Future Results" in the Investors section of our website at: www.exxonmobil.com. The information provided includes ExxonMobil's internal estimates and forecasts based upon internal data and analyses as well as publically-available information from external sources including the International Energy Agency. This material is not to be used or reproduced without the permission of Exxon Mobil Corporation. All rights reserved.
Energy Outlook Development
100 countries
ExxonMobil 2014 Outlook for Energy

Residential
Commercial
Lt. Transportation Hvy. Transportation
Chemicals
Asphalt Lubricants Flaring Energy Industry Agriculture Heavy Industry
15 demand sectors
Aviation Marine Rail
Power Generation

Motor Gasoline Distillate Asphalt Solar Natural Gas Wind
Naphtha
Jet Fuel Fuel Oil LPG Lubes
Nuclear
Bio-mogas Biomass/Other Bio-distillate Coal Electricity Hydro Market Heat Geothermal
20 fuel types
Technology & Policy

Trade Flows
Global Progress Drives Demand

Population
Billion
GDP
Trillion 2005$
21 18 15
Average Growth / Yr. 2010 2040 0.8%
120
100
80 12 60 9 40 6
Non OECD
3 0 2000
OECD
20
2020
2040
0 2000
2020
2040
Peoples Living Standard Depends on Energy
Peoples Living Standard Depends on Energy
Peoples Living Standard Depend on Energy
Global Progress Drives Demand

Population
Billion
GDP
Trillion 2005$
Energy Demand
Quadrillion BTUs
21 18 15
120
1400
1200 1000
100
80 12 60 9 40 6
Non OECD
800 600
Energy Saved ~500
400
20
OECD
3 0 2000
200 0 2000
2020
2040
0 2000
2020
2040
2020
2040
Global Urbanization & Major Cities (2010)
2010 Percentage Urban 0-50% 50-75% 75-100% 2010 City 10 million +
Source: United Nations and ExxonMobil estimates
Global Urbanization & Major Cities (2040)
2040 Percentage Urban 0-50% 50-75% 75-100% 2010 City 10 million + 2040 City 10 million +
Source: United Nations and ExxonMobil estimates
Electricity Generation Leads Growth

Energy Demand by Sector
Quadrillion BTUs
300
2025
2040
250
200
2010
150
100
50
0 Electricity Generation Industrial Transportation Res/Comm
Industrial
Industrial Energy Demand

By Region
Quadrillion BTUs
By Sector
Percent Share
300
2010
250
Rest of Non OECD
Other
200
Energy Industry Heavy Industry
150
India
China
100
Chemicals
50
OECD
2040
0 2000
2020
2040
Industrial Energy Demand

By Region
Quadrillion BTUs
By Fuel
Percent Share
300
2010 Other
250
Rest of Non OECD
Naphtha NGLs
200
Electricity Other Oil
150
India
China
100
Coal Gas OECD 2040
50
0 2000
2020
2040
Transportation
Light Duty Vehicle Efficiency

Car Fleet by Type
Million Cars
Range of Average Vehicle Efficiency

On-Road Miles per Gallon
1800
Elec/Plug-in Full Hybrid CNG+LPG
75
1600
1400 1200 1000 800
Conv. Diesel
60
Conv. Gasoline
45
Europe
Average Fleet
30
600 400 200 0 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 0 2010 2020 2030 2040 15
U.S.
Transportation Demand
Sector Demand
MBDOE
Commercial Transportation by Region - 2010

MBDOE
75
Rail Marine Aviation
18
Rail Marine Aviation Heavy Duty
15
50
12
Heavy Duty
25
Light Duty
0 2000
0 2010 2020 2030 2040 Asia North Europe Latin Middle Rest of Pacific America America East World
Transportation Demand
Sector Demand
MBDOE
Commercial Transportation by Region - 2040

MBDOE
75
Rail Marine Aviation
18
Rail Marine Aviation Heavy Duty
15
50
12
Heavy Duty
25
2010
Light Duty
0 2000
0 2010 2020 2030 2040 Asia North Europe Latin Middle Rest of Pacific America America East World
Electricity generation
Electricity Use by Region

Electricity Use
1000 KWh per Capita
12
2040
Growth in Electricity Demand 2010 2040 ~90%
10 8 6
America North America North
Europe Europe
4
2 0 0
2010
Latin America
2040
Middle East
Asia Pacific
Rest of World
10
Population (Billions)
Economic Choices for U.S. Electricity

Plant Cost, Startup 2030
2013 cents/kWh Baseload Intermittent
15
Coal Reliability Cost* Reliability Cost*
12
9
Gas $60/tonne of CO2
6
$0/tonne
0
1 2 Gas3 4 5 Coal 6 7 Nuclear 8 9 10 CCS 11 Onshore 12 13 14 Solar 15 PV 16 Wind Utility
*Reliability cost includes integration, backup capacity and additional transmission costs.
Electricity Demand
Global Electrical Demand by Sector
Thousand TWh
Global Electrical Demand by Fuel

Thousand TWh
40
40
Other Industry
30
30
Gas
Heavy Industry
20
20
Coal
Commercial
Nuclear
10
Residential Transportation
10
Wind & Solar Other Renewables
Oil
0 2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
0 2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
Energy Mix Continues to Evolve

Quadrillion BTUs
225 200 175 150
0.7%
2040
1.7%
2010
Average Growth / Yr. 2010 - 2040 1.0%

0.0%
125
100 75 2.5% 50 25 0
Oil Gas Coal Nuclear Biomass Solar / Wind / Biofuels Hydro / Geo
0.4%
5.9%
2.0%
CO2 Emissions Plateau

Energy-Related CO2 Emissions by Region
Billion Tonnes
Emissions per Capita

Tonnes / Person
40
12
2010
10 30
Asia Pacific
8
2040
20
Middle East Africa
Latin America
10
Russia/Caspian
Europe North America
0 2000
0 2020 2040 OECD Non OECD
Supply
Liquids Supply
Liquid Supply by Type
MBDOE
Crude and Condensate Resource*

Trillion barrels of oil
120
Biofuels Oil Sands Tight Oil Deepwater
100
80
Other NGLs
Remaining Resource
60
40
Conventional Crude & Condensate
2
Cumulative Production through 2040
20
0 2000
0 2020 2040 2040

* Source: IEA
Gas Resources Abundant; Supply Diversifies

Remaining Recoverable Resource*
Thousand TCF
Gas Production by Region

BCFD
Gas Production by Type

BCFD
30
Africa
600
600
ROW
500
Unconventional Middle East
500
AP
NA
20
Asia Pacific
400
400
Unconventional
300
Russia/ Caspian
300
10
Conventional Europe Latin America North America
200
200
Conventional
100
100
0
* Source: IEA
2012
2012
2011
0 2000
2020
2040
0 2000
2020
2040
LNG Demand Triples and LNG Supply Diversifies
LNG in 2040
BCFD
100
Other Europe Atlantic Basin
Middle East
80
60
Asia Pacific
40
2010 Pacific Basin
20
0 Demand Supply
Global Energy Trade
Indicative trade flows ExxonMobil 2014 Outlook for Energy
Liquids Trade
35
Russia/Caspian
35
North America
35
Europe
0
0 0 -35 -35 -35
Middle East
35
35
Asia Pacific
Latin America
35
35
Africa
-35 0
-35
MBDOE
35
Net Exports
-35
-35
0 2010 -35 2025 2040
Net Imports
Natural Gas Trade

60
Russia/Caspian
60
North America
60
Europe
0
0 0 -60 -60
-60
Middle East
60
60
Asia Pacific
Latin America
60
60
Africa
-60 0
-60
BCFD
60
Net Exports
-60
-60
0 2010 -60 2025 2040
Net Imports
Conclusions

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The Outlook for Energy:

Energy Outlook Development