Capitolul VI

SONDAJUL STATISTIC
6.1. INTRODUCERE
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datelor statistice, n dauna rapoartelor statistice - IRUP

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6.2. ERORILE DE SONDAJ

3ULQFLSDOD FODV

D HURULORU GH VRQGDM R FRQVWLWXLH

erorile de reprezentativitate sistematice WRDUH,

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GH

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0 VXUDUHD HURULL GH UHSUH]HQWDWLYLWDWH VH SRDWH HIHFW

- absolut
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- relativ FD] vQ FDUH LQGLFDWRUXO

ua:
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2 HURDUH UHODWLY
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x m.

( x), de la

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m
100 5%
m

(6.1)

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GHFL R LPDJLQH DSUR[LPDWLY

GH VRQGDM

VXE 

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D HURULL

- n cazul sondajelor - o constituie nereprezentativitatea, iar erorile

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vQ PLF

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OR

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dicat de reprezentativitate, principalele tipuri de sondaj fiind:

A. Sondaje aleatoare:
a. sondajul simplu;
b. sondajul tipic (stratificat);
c. sondajul de serii;
G VRQGDMXO VHFYHQ LDO

e. sondajul n trepte.

,/

B. Sondaje dirijate
C. Sondaje sistematice
)LHFDUH GLQ WLSXULOH GH VRQGDMH HQXPHUDWH VH SRDWH HIHFWXD vQ GRX

- "repetat" -

FkQG R XQLWDWH SUHOHYDW

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SRSXOD LHL GH RULJLQH L GHFL DUH DQVH V

PDL UHLQWUH vQ HDQWLRQ

- "nerepetat" - FkQG XQLW

LOH QX VXQW VDX QX SRW IL UHVWLWXLWH vQ SRSXOD LD JHQHUDO 

0RGHOXO WHRUHWLF DO DFHVWRU GRX

UHYHQLW

L QHUHYHQLW  3UHOHYDUHD XQLW

1. Procedeul "LOTERIE",
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LPSULPDW

YDULDQWH GH SUHOXFUDUH VH DIO

LORU VH HIHFWXHD]

GXS

vQ

XUQD OXL %HUQRXOOL

HVWH XQ SURFHGHX DOHDWRU vQ FDUH XQLW

SH SURGXVH VDX FRPSRQHQWH

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FX ELO

GLYHUVH PHWRGH GLQWUH FDUH DPLQWLP

QXP UXO GH PDUF

LOH SHUIHFW LGHQWLILFDELOH

DO VDODULD LORU

QXP UXO FDVHL

FRUHVSRQGHQWXO vQUHJLVWUDW SH ELOH HOH DPHVWHFDWH L

extrase aleator dintr-R XUQ 

2. Procedeul "tabelelor cu numere aleatoare" este oarecum similar celui anterior, dar se
DSOLF

SRSXOD LLORU GH PDUL GLPHQVLXQL OD FDUH PHWRGD GH WLS

/272

acestui procedHX XQLW LOH YRU IL SUHOHYDWH GLQ SRSXOD LD 1

ordinea (aleatoare) n care sunt nregistrate numerele ntr-XQ
$FHVWH WDEHOH RIHU
L

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VHULL GH QXPHUH DOHDWRDUH UH]XOWDWH vQ XUP

UH]XOWDWHORU

ILH

VH

RE LQ

SULQ

XWLOL]DUHD

programele specifice pentru "generarea numerelor aleatoare".

3. Procedeul mecanic FRQVW vQ SUHOHYDUHD XQLW LORU
ELQH SUHFL]DWH GHFL OD XQ DQXPLW
HDQWLRQXO

UHSUH]LQW

XQLWDWH D SRSXOD LHL 'HFL



SDV GH QXP UDUH

Q  vQ

WDEHO GH DFHVW WLS VSHFLDO DOF WXLW

DSOLF

rii unui procedeu de tip loterie

FDOFXODWRUXOXL
OD LQWHUYDOH 

HOHFWURQLF

IRORVLQG

de timp, sau numerice)

DSOLFDW ED]HL GH VRQGDM 'H H[HPSOX GDF

GLQ YROXPXO SRSXOD LHL

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HVWH HJDO FX .

1Q 3HQWUX D vPEXQ W

-a

LL FDUDFWHUXO

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RDUHFDUH H[WUDV

extrDJH


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SUHVXSXQHP  'HFL XQLW

LOH FH VH YRU

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6.4. SONDAJUL ALEATOR SIMPLU

(VWH YDULDQWD DOHDWRDUH HOHPHQWDU

GH VRQGDM FHOHODOWH WLSXUL SXWkQG IL vQ HOHVH FD VROX LL

RE LQXWH SULQ SD

rticularizarea unor elemente ale acestui tip de sondaj. El se poate realiza, din punct
GH YHGHUH DO SUHOHY ULL XQLW
LORU vQ XQD GLQ FHOH GRX YDULDQWH - UHSHWDW L QHUHSHWDW.
 6LPEROXUL L XQHOH QR LXQL LQWURGXFWLYH

Cele mai frecvente utilizate siPEROXUL vQ DFHVW FDSLWRO VH SUH]LQW

vQ WDEHOXO QU 

Tabelul nr. 6.1.

6LPEROXUL GH ED]
1XP

UXO

GH XQLW

Q SRSXOD LD

0HGLD DULWPHWLF

L
P

(volumul)
N

SHQWUX

caracteristici
VXUDELOH
binare
m
p

Dispersia caracteristici
P

generDO
Q HDQWLRQ

(YLGHQW vQ SUDFWLF  VSUH GHRVHELUH GH WHRULH VH RSHUHD]

VDX LQGLYL]L ILQLWH 3UHOHYkQG

XQLW

VXUDELOH

Indicatori

binare
P(1-p)

s2

f(1-f)

DVXSUD XQRU SRSXOD LL GH RELHFWH

L GLQ FHOH 1 DOH SRSXOD LHL L vQUHJLVWUkQG SHQWUX ILHFDUH

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ED]D F UXLD VH FDOFXOHD]

PHGLD

, x2, ..., xi, ..., xn pe

xi
n

x=

$FHDVW

(6.2)

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SRSXOD LD JHQHUDO  (YLGHQW F

vQWU R DOW

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GLQ

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indicatorii VWDWLVWLFLL FDOFXOD L SH ED]D GDWHORU GH VRQGDM GLIHU

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GH OD

HDQWLRQ OD HDQWLRQ UH]XOW

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OD

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(valoarea medie a

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JHQHUDO  consistente LQGLFDWRUXO GH VRQGDM V FRQYHDUJ vQ SUREDELOLWDWH SHQWUX YDORUL PDUL DOH OXL
Q  F WUH SDUDPHWUXO WHRUHWLF - GLQ SRSXOD LD JHQHUDO  eficiente V DLE GLVSHUVLH PLQLP  GHFL VH
YD SXWHD DILUPD F
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x A HVWH PDL HILFLHQW GHFkW XQ HDQWLRQ % WRW GH YROXP

x B  GDF  M( x A ) = m, iar M( x B ) = m, iar
HVWLPD LD

SHQWUX YDULDELOD ; SULQ HVWLPDWRUXO

"n" peQWUX

HVWLPDUHD PHGLHL

P  SULQ

D( x A ) < D( x B ) unde M - VHPQLILF

(VWLPD LLOH

RE LQXWH

SH

PHGLD LDU '

ED]D

GDWHORU

- dispersia.

GH

VRQGDM

FRQVWLWXLH

HYDOX UL

DSUR[LPDWLYH

DOH

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printr-XQ VRQGDM VXQW DIHFWDWH GH HURUL &H VH SRDWH RE LQH SULQ VRQGDM HVWH QX YDORDUHD
SDUDPHWUXOXL F XWDW FL XQ

acopHU
SRDUW

LQWHUYDO GH vQFUHGHUH  FDUH

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GDU QHFXQRVFXW

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&HOH GRX

- FX R SUREDELOLWDWH IL[DW

DGHY UDW

GH F WUH FHUFHW WRU

D SDUDPHWUXOXL GLQ SRSXOD LD JHQHUDO  $FHVW LQWHUYDO

sau interval de ncredere.

OLPLWH DOH LQWHUYDOXOXL GH vQFUHGHUH

 inf L  sup  VH FDOFXOHD]

sondajului x1, x2, ...., xi, ...., xn, astfel nct cu o probabilitate P = 1 -  V

P ( inf <  <  sup ) = 1 

SH ED]D GDWHORU

VH vQGHSOLQHDVF

UHOD LD

(6.3)

Intervalul ( inf ;  sup ) UHSUH]LQW intervalul de ncredere L GHILQHWH SUHFL]LD HVWLPD LHL
Probabilitatea P = 1 ncredere.
YDORDUHD

FDUDFWHUL]HD]

FRPSOHPHQWDU

VHPQLILFD LH L VH IL[HD]
 

QLYHOXOXL

GH

DILUPD LLORU

vQFUHGHUH

VH

VH

QXPHWH

QXPHWH

nivel de

nivel sau prag de

SULQ SURJUDPXO GH FHUFHWDUH &HOH PDL XWLOL]DWH YDORUL DOH SUREDELOLW

ncredere sunt 90%, 95%, 99%, 99



VLJXUDQ D

 F URUD OH FRUHVSXQG QLYHOXUL GH VHPQLILFD LH GH 

LL GH
 

 $OWH GHWDOLL DVXSUD ULVFXULORU L HURULORU vQ SDUDJUDIXO 

3H OkQJ

FRHILFLHQWXO GH vQFUHGHUH 

ncredere ( inf ;  sup )

'DF

HJDOH vQ YDORDUH DEVROXW

XQ URO LPSRUWDQW vO MRDF

HURDUHD GH VRQGDM VH UHSDUWL]HD]

DX SUREDELOLW

inf; sup
2

OHJHD QRUPDO  DWXQFL HURULOH

L HJDOH GH DSDUL LH SHQWUX DFHODL YROXP DO HDQWLRQXOXL

-XP WDWHD LQWHUYDOXOXL GH vQFUHGHUH VH QXPHWH HURDUH OLPLWDW



GXS

OXQJLPHD LQWHUYDOXOXL GH

DGPLV

L VH QRWHD] 

6.4.2. Indicatori ai sondajului aleator simplu repetat

L QHUHSHWDW

1. Eroare medie de sondaj

a. Cazul sondajului repetat
2EVHUYD LLOH vQUHJLVWUDWH SH ED]D GDWHORU HDQWLRQXOXL [1, x2, ...., xi, ...., xn pot fi considerate
variabile aleatoare, iar folosind indeSHQGHQ D YDORULORU YDULDELOHL VH DUDW F PHGLD GH VRQGDM

x=

x1 +x 2 +...+x n
n

n
1

n
i=1

xi

(6.4)

SRDWH IL XQ HVWLPDWRU QHGHSODVDW DO PHGLHL

FRQGL LD FD PHGLD GH VRQGDM V
$FHDVWD vQVHDPQ

ILH HJDO

D FROHFWLYLW

PHGLHL

(6.5)

UHOD LH H[SULP

D FROHFWLYLW

6H FDOFXOHD]

D(x ) =

IDSWXO F

DGLF

PHGLD

x ntr-un sondaj este un estimator nedeplasat al

LL JHQHUDOH

GLVSHUVLD PHGLHL GH VRQGDM

D (x ):
(6.6)

$EDWHUHD PHGLH S WUDWLF

"x

"

VH vQGHSOLQHWH

F 

M( x ) = m
$FHDVW

LL JHQHUDOH GDF

FX PHGLD JHQHUDO 

D PHGLHL GH VRQGDM HVWH

s
n

(6.7)

n RUL PDL PLF

GLVSHUVLD GH VRQGDM vQWU R HDQWLRQDUH FX UHYHQLUH GH YROXP Q HVWH GH

dect dispersia "

D FROHFWLYLW

LL JHQHUDOH

b. Cazul sondajului nerepetat

/D DFHVW WLS GH VRQGDM XQLW
RGDW

H[WUDV

QHILLQG UHVWLWXLW

LOH VXQW SUHOHYDWH vQWkPSO WRU GLQ SRSXOD LD JHQHUDO  R

SRSXOD LHL GH RULJLQH GHFL QHDYkQG DQVH V

1 HVWH YROXPXO SRSXOD LHL JHQHUDOH DWXQFL

FRQGL LRQDW

GH IDSWXO F

OD SULPD H[WU

1
P (X 1 = x 1 ) = N , dar probabilitatea evenimentului X2 = x2

ategere a avut loc evenimentul X1 = x1

YHULILFDW QX PDL UHYLQH vQ SRSXOD LD JHQHUDO

PHGLH S WUDWLF

"x

HVWH

P (X 2 = x 2 /X 1 = x 1 ) =

1
N1 ,

LDU HOHPHQWXO RGDW

caz n care abaterea

D PHGLHL GH VRQGDM FD P VXU WRU DO HURULL PHGLL GH UHSUH]HQWDWLYLWDWH HVWH

"

Nn
N1

s
n

Nn
N1

n calculele efective, pentru

FRQVLGHUD LH )DFWRUXO

aproximativ de n ori
SHUPLWH V

XQLWDWH

PDL UHLQWUH vQ HDQWLRQ 'DF

n
N

n
N

s
n

< 0, 2 GH UHJXO

n
N

IDFWRUXO

(6.8)
Nn
N1

sau

n
N

, nu se mai ia n

este subunitar. Cnd n - YROXPXO VRQGDMXOXL FUHWH SUHFL]LD VSRUHWH

GXS

VH XWLOL]H]H vQ SUDFWLF

FXP vQ DFHODL UDSRUW VH PLFRUHD]

DEDWHUHD PHGLH

"x

. Acest fapt

VRQGDMH GH YROXP QX SUHD ULGLFDW F FL VSRULUHD YROXPXOXL DFHVWRUD

QX VH UHJ VHWH SURSRU LRQDO vQ ULGLFDUHD SUHFL]LHL VRQGDMXOXL

'DF

YROXPXO 1 DO SRSXOD LHL HVWH ULGLFDW LDU DO VRQGDMXOXL HVWH UHGXV DWXQFL

rezultatul estLP
'DF

ULL LQGLFDWRUXOXL

1 DWXQFL

"x

1, deci

, practic coincide n ambele variante de sondaj.

n
N

GHYLQH QXO L GHFL GLVSDUH L HURDUHD PHGLH GH VRQGDM F FL

FHUFHWDUHD SDU LDO

V-a transformat ntr-R FHUFHWDUH LQWHJUDO  (YLGHQW
rHSUH]HQWDWLYLWDWH VSHFLILFH QXPDL FHUFHW ULL SULQ HDQWLRDQH
Q JHQHUDO HURDUHD GH UHSUH]HQWDWLYLWDWH D HDQWLRQ ULL I U
FHOHL FX UHYHQLUH YDULDQW

Nn
N+1

OD FDUH UHvQWRDUFHUHD UHSHWDW

DFHDVWD QX JHQHUHD]

HURUL GH

UHYHQLUH HVWH PDL PLF

D DFHORUDL XQLW

GHFkW D

L vQ HDQWLRQ vQU XW

HWH

reprezentativitatea.
1RW

a. 'XS FXP V-D REVHUYDW vQ UHOD LLOH  L  FkQG

- DEDWHUHD PHGLH S WUDWLF SULQ SRSXOD LD JHQHUDO HVWH QHFXQRVFXW  HD D IRVW vQORFXLW FX V estimatorul ei stabilit pe baza unui sondaj;
b. 'DF HDQWLRQXO vQ YHGHUHD HVWLP ULL DEDWHULL PHGLHL S WUDWLFH VH HIHFWXHD] SH ED]D XQXL
QXP U UHGXV GH XQLW

L vQ SURE  DWXQFL HVWLPDWRUXO OXL

VH RE LQH UDSRUWkQG VXPD S WUDWHORU GH OD

medie (x i x ) la (n -  L QX OD Q - YROXPXO XQLW LORU GLQ SURE 

c. Un estimator DO GLVSHUVLHL vQ FD]XO vQ FDUH QX VH SRDWH DVLJXUD
2

SHQWUX FDOFXOXO vPSU WLHULL HVWH L YDORDUHD PD[LP

2
" max

d.

(x min x ) 2 + (x max x ) 2
2

vQ FD]XO FDUDFWHULVWLFLORU P VXUDELOH

Q FD]XO FDUDFWHULVWLFLORU ELQDUH UHOD LLOH GH FDOFXO DOH HURULL PHGLL U PkQ YDODELOH FX

PHQ LXQHD F

vQ ORFXO OXL

HVWH IUHFYHQ D UHODWLY

e.

R HDQWLRQDUH SUHOLPLQDU

D LQGLFDWRUXOXL

"

se va lucra cu " max =

f(1 f ) = = 0, 5(1 0, 5 ) = 0, 25 , unde f

D FDUDFWHULVWLFLL ELQDUH F UXLD L V

-a atribuit codul x1 = 1.

Q VLWXD LD VRQGDMHORU GH YROXP ULGLFDW FDOFXOXO HURULL SUREDELOH VH HIHFWXHD]

tiliznd

FRHILFLHQ LL GH SUREDELOLWDWH LGHQWLILFD L vQ WDEHOHOH /DSODFH DQH[D GH H[HPSOX SHQWUX XQ ULVF

= 1 2 (z); 0, 05 = 1 2 (z); 2 (z) = 0, 95;

5%;
sondajele de volum redus (n < 30 -  GH XQLW
 (URDUHD OLPLW
(URDUHD
HVWLP

OLPLW

(eroDUHD PD[LP
PD[LP

DGPLV

(z) = 0, 475 tabelar z0,05 = 1,96. Pentru

L VH YD IRORVL WDEHOD OHJLL 6WXGHQW

DGPLV

VDX SUREDELO 

GHILQHWH

VLJXUDQ D

x L VH P
ULL mediei "m" prin variabila de sondaj
x m < x  0 ULPHD - x FDUDFWHUL]HD]

LQHJDOLW

VRDU

- x
(sau probabilitatea de ncredere)

SUREDELOLVW DVWIHO

SUHFL]LD

HVWLPD LHL

Aprecierea satisfacerii

LL QX VH SRDWH IDFH GHFkW FD R SUREDELOLWDWH GH UHDOL]DUH

P( x m <

x)

=1

(6.9)

Probabilitatea 1  VH DOHJH GH F WUH FHUFHW WRU vQ

n estimare, cele mai uzuale valori fiind 0,95; 0,99; 0,999.
(URDUHD OLPLW

z=

VH GHWHUPLQ

IXQF LH GH

QLYHOXO GH VLJXUDQ

XUP ULW

SRUQLQG GH OD YDULDELOD

xm
"

(6.10)

FDUH DD FXP VH FXQRDWH DUH R UHSDUWL LH QRUPDO  ILLQG YDORDUHD WDEHODW  FDUH VDWLVIDFH

2 (z ) = P = 1 .

UHOD LD

3HQWUX

YDORDUHD

= 0, 05; 0, 01; 0, 001 valorile variabilei z sunt z0,05=1,96;

X]XDO

 'LQ WDEHOHOH /DSODFH VH SRW RE LQH P ULPLOH ] L SHQWUX DOWH SUDJXUL

z0,01=2,33 respectiv z0,001

GH VHPQLILFD LH

'LQ  UH]XOW

xm

HVWH HJDO

FX

pentru cazul sondajului repetat

=z

=z

HURDUHD

EvideQW

WRDWH

n
N

(6.11)

n varianta sondajului nerepetat

SUHFL] ULOH

HIHFWXDWH

DQWHULRU

FX

(6.12)

SULYLUH

OD

vQORFXLUHD

"

LQGLFDWRUXOXL

prin

HVWLPDWRUL U PkQ YDODELOH

 'HWHUPLQDUHD YROXPXOXL HDQWLRQXOXL
/D RUJDQL]DUHD XQHL FHUFHW UL SULQ VRQGDM XQD GLQ SUREOHPHOH GH UH]ROYDW HVWH GLPHQVLRQDUHD
OXL UD LRQDO  (VWH DGHY UDW F
VSRUHWH

SUHFL]LD

P ULPHD YROXPXOXL Q DO VRQGDMXOXL

UH]XOWDWHORU

UHGXFH

HURDUHD

HFRQRPLFLWDWH HVWH QHFHVDU FD DFHVW YROXP V

VH GHWHUPLQ
VLJXUDQ

QXP UXO PLQLP GH XQLW

L GH

PHGLH

- n virtutea legii numerelor mari -

SUREDELO 

LQkQG

ILH FkW PDL PLF /XkQG vQ

REVHUYDW FDUH

VHDPD

GH

FULWHULL

GH

considerare ambele aspecte,

VDWLVIDF

H[LJHQ HOH

GH SUHFL]LH L

IRUPXODWH vQ UDSRUW FX FHUFHWDUHD UHVSHFWLY 

Q WHRULD L SUDFWLFD VRQGDMXOXL VH RSHUHD]

UHGXV 

vQ

IXQF LH

GH

JUDGXO

GH

RPRJHQLWDWH

DO

FX HDQWLRDQH
FROHFWLYLW

LL

PDUL

L HDQWLRD

JHQHUDOH

ne "de volum

,QWHUSUHWDUHD

HURULL

GH

UHSUH]HQWDWLYLWDWH VH IDFH vQ PRG GLIHULW SHQWUX HDQWLRDQHOH GH YROXP PDUH VH IRORVHWH GLVWULEX LD
QRUPDO

/DSODFH LDU SHQWUX FHOH GH YROXP UHGXV GLVWULEX LD 6WXGHQW

&DOFXOXO YROXPXOXL HDQWLRQXOXL VH UHDOL]HD]

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PD[LP

DGPLV 

care n cazul sondajului repetat este:

=z

"


GH XQGH SXQHP vQ HYLGHQ

2
x

= z2

"

SH Q

astfel nct:

n=

z2

"

2
x

(6.13)

iar n cazul sondajului rHSHWDW UHOD LD HVWH

z2
2+
x

"

z2

n=

(6.14)

3HQWUX D GLPHQVLRQD UD LRQDO YROXPXO Q DO HDQWLRQXOXL VXQW QHFHVDUH XUP WRDUHOH HOHPHQWH

HURDUHD OLPLW

DGPLVLELO

" x FDUH VH VWDELOHWH vQ IXQF LH GH SDUWLFXODULW

SUREOHPHL SUDFWLFH GH VROX LRQDW GH SUHFL]LD QHFHVDU

LOH FRQFUHWH DOH

GH DVLJXUDW

- probabilitatea de ncredere (1  ), (sau eroarea

vedere practic - de certitudine;

  VXILFLHQW GH DSURSLDW

- din punct de

- dispersia VDX HVWLPDWRUXO DFHVWHLD FDUDFWHULVWLFLL vQ SRSXOD LD JHQHUDO " ;

- n cazul prHOHY ULL I U UHYHQLUH HVWH QHFHVDU D VH FXQRDWH L YROXPXO 1 DO FROHFWLYLW

LL

4. Calculul intervalului de "ncredere"

,QWHUYDOXO GH vQFUHGHUH

GHVHPQHD]

SRSXOD LHL JHQHUDOH (O VH GHWHUPLQ

]RQD SUREDELO

vQ LQWHULRUXO F UHLD VH YD SODVD PHGLD

SRUQLQG GH OD PHGLD GH VRQGDM FRUHFWDW

FX QLYHOXO HURULL OLPLW

PD[LP DGPLV 

xm <

UHOD LH HFKLYDOHQW

L
UH]XOW

FX GXEOD LQHJDOLWDWH

<m<x+

LQkQG FRQW GH UHOD LD  UHVSHFWLY  GHFL GH PRGXO GH FDOFXO D HURULL OLPLW 

F 

P ( x m < x ) = P ( x < x m <

= P (x x < m < x + x ) =1-
Deci, "LQWHUYDOXO

GDU QHFXQRVFXW

/XQJLPHD

vQFUHGHUH

]RQD

SUREDELO

vQ

FDUH

VH

YD

SODVD

YDORDUHD

D PHGLHL GLQ SRSXOD LD JHQHUDO 

LQWHUYDOXOXL

YDORULORU P VXUDW

=
(6.15)

GHOLPLWHD]

GH

vQFUHGHUH

HVWH

VHPQLILFD LH OD YDORUL PLFL DOH OXL

valorile z

GLUHFW

SURSRU LRQDO

FX

" L LQYHUV SURSRU LRQDO

SULQ DEDWHUHD PHGLH S WUDWLF

DGHY UDW

GH

x)

P ULPHD

vPSU WLHULL

FX QLYHOXO SUDJXOXL GH

FUHVF L P ULPHD HDQWLRQXOXL OD FUHWHUHD OXL Q

LQWHUYDOXO GH vQFUHGHUH GHYLQH PDL PLF GHFL SUHFL]LD HVWLPD LHL VSRUHWH
Q XQHOH VLWXD LL SUH]LQW

LQWHUHV L SRDWH DYHD VHQV ORJLF FDOFXOXO LQWHUYDOXOXL SUREDELO GH

SODVDUH D QLYHOXOXL WRWDOL]DW DO FDUDFWHULVWLFLL vQ SRSXOD LD JHQHUDO 

i=1

xi O N x

(6.16)

'LQ LQWHUYDOXO GH vQFUHGHUH SHQWUX YDORDUHD DJUHJDW

>

N m >N x+z




(YLGHQW SHQWUX VRQGDMXO

N xz

Nx este:

QHUHSHWDW

YDORULL HURULL SUREDELOH FX IRUPXOD DGHFYDW

(6.17)

UHOD LD  VH

DGDSWHD]

OHVQH vQ VHQVXO vQORFXLULL

DFHVWXL WLS GH VRQGDM

Alte aspecte referitore la fundamentarea stabilirii intervalelor de ncredere vor fi tratate n

paragraful referitor la testarea ipotezelor statistice (6.9).

6.5. CALCULUL INDICATORILOR SONDAJULUI

N CAZUL CARATERISTICILOR BINARE (ALTERNATIVE)
Q FD]XO vQ FDUH YDULDELOD ; SRDWH DU WD GRDU R vQVXLUH SH FDUH R SRVHG

elementele poSXOD LHL FDUDFWHULVWLFD SRDUW

QXPHOH GH

ELQDU

VDX

DOWHUQDWLY

GRDU XQHOH GLQ

'H H[HPSOX SHQWUX R FROHFWLYLWDWH GH SLHVH ORW FRPDQG  FRQWUDFW HWF ;

SRDWH IL IHOXO SLHVHL

GHIHFW

VDX

EXQ

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GH PXQFLWRUL

- caracteristica
FDUDFWHULVWLFD ; poate

reprezenta nivelul de calificare sau salarizare ("peste" sau "sub medie") etc.
3UHVXSXQkQG FD L SkQ

DFXP F

SRSXOD LD VXSXV

GLQWUH FDUH XQ QXP U RDUHFDUH ILH . SRVHG

ED]D VHOHF LHL V

SRVHG

vQ VRQGDMXO

x 1 , x 2 , ..., x n ,

N XQLW

 L [k+1

= xk+2 = ..... = xn = 0

LL FH

YDORDUHD 

L FHUFHWDWH SRVHG

L vQ SOXV

x1 = x2 = ..... = xk

FDUDFWHULVWLFD

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FDUDFWHULVWLFD ; YDORDUHD  LDU FHORU FH QX R SRVHG

'DF

GLQ 1 HOHPHQWH

- N QX R SRVHG  Se propune ca pe

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FDUDFWHULVWLFD ; L 1

FDUDFWHULVWLFD ; L Q

- k nu o

SURSRU LD vQ HDQWLRQ D HOHPHQWHORU FDUH SRVHG

n
1
n 
i=1

x=

xi = 1 [1k + 0(n k)] =

n

FDUH HVWH WRFPDL IUHFYHQ D UHODWLY

6H REVHUY
DO SUREDELOLW
F

0I

IUHFYHQ D UHODWLY

k
n

FDUDFWHULVWLFD ; HVW

e media

(6.18)

D FDUDFWHULVWLFLL FHUFHWDWH vQ HDQWLRQ L HVWH QRWDW

I VDX In

I D FDUDFWHULVWLFLL ; vQ HDQWLRQ HVWH XQ HVWLPDWRU QHGHSODVDW

LL S GHRDUHFH GLQ UHOD LD JHQHUDO

M( x ) = m UH]XOW

LPHGLDW vQ ED]D FHORU SUHFHGHQWH

S

'H DVHPHQHD WHRUHPD OXL %HUQRXOOL FDUH H[SULP

FRQYHUJHQ D vQ SUREDELOLWDWH D IUHFYHQ HL

UHODWLYH I F WUH S DGLF 

P ( f p <  ) G 1,
 

VWDELOHWH F

Dispersia "
"

n
1

N i=1

I HVWH XQ HVWLPDWRU FRQVLVWHQW SHQWUX SUREDELOL

D FDUDFWHULVWLFLL DOWHUQDWLYH VH FDOFXOHD]

(x i m ) 2 =

n
1

N i=1

GXS

tatea p.
FXP XUPHD] 

k
(x i N ) 2 = p (1 p )

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SULQ IUHFYHQ D UHODWLY

"f

p(1p )
n

SUREDELOLWDWHD S

I vQ FD]XO VRQGDMXOXL UHSHWDW L QHUHSHWDW

(6.19)

respectiv
"f

p(1p )
n

Nn
N1

(6.20)

Intervalul de ncredere pentru probabilitatea p n cazul sondajului repetat este:



'DF

p(1p )
n

< p < f+z

1 HVWH PDUH LDU GDF

intervalul de ncrederH SHQWUX

coeficientul (N n )/(N 1 ) .

fz

p(1p )
n

(6.21)

Q HVWH GH DVHPHQHD PDUH GDU UHODWLY PLF vQ UDSRUW FX 1 VH RE LQH

SUREDELOLWDWHD

S

FD]XO

VRQGDMXOXL

9ROXPXO Q VH RE LQH GLQ UHOD LD

=z

p(1p )
n

Nn
N1

=z

"f

(6.22)

GH XQGH vQ ILQDO UH]XOW 

(6.23)

n=

z 2 p(1p )N
(N1 ) 2 +z 2 p(1p )

XQGH S VH HVWLPHD]

GXS

FXP V D DU WDW DQWHULRU

QHUHSHWDW

LQWHUYLQH

6.6. SONDAJUL TIPIC (STRATIFICAT)

6H FRQVLGHU

SRSXOD LD JHQHUDO

ck QXPLWH JUXSH VDX VWUDWXUL L F

vPS U LW

vQWU XQ QXP U GH VXESRSXOD LL SDU LDOH F1

URUD OH FRUHVSXQG XUP WRDUHOH YDORUL DOH FDUDFWHULVWLFLL

c 1 : x 11 , x21 , ..., x N11

c 2 : x 12 , x22 , ..., x N22

c 3 : x 1k , x 2k , ..., x Nrk

'XS

(6.24)

FXP VH YHGH VWUDWXO F1

SRSXOD LHL F HVWH

, c2, .....,

are N1 XQLW

, c2 are N2 XQLW

L HWF 1XP UXO WRWDO DO XQLW

LORU

N =N

N1 + N2 + ... + Nk = i=1 i
Din fiecare din aceste straturi se fac cte n1, n2, ....., nk extrageri la ntmplare nerepetate,

DVWIHO F 

n1 + n2 + ... + nk = i=1 n i = n


Q ILLQG QXP UXO WRWDO DO XQLW

3ULQ XUPDUH GLQ ILHFDUH JUXS

F URU XQLW

LORU HDQWLRQXOXL
VWUDW VH HIHFWXHD]

FkWH XQ VRQGDM RE LQkQG HDQWLRDQH DOH

au caracteristici cu valorile:
x11, x21, ..., xn11; x12, x22, ..., xn22; x1k, x2k, ..., xnrk,
unde variabilele de sondaj xij (i = 1, 2, ..., nj; j = 1, 2, ..., k) sunt considerate drept variabile
aleatoare.
6H LQWURGXF QRWD LLOH

r Nj
1
  xi
N j=1i=1
- PHGLD JHQHUDO
Nj
1
m j = N j  xi
- media sondajului
i=1

m=

3ULQ XUPDUH UH]XOW

m=
DGLF

k
1

N j=1

(6.25)
j

(6.26)

PHGLD JHQHUDO

VH PDL VFULH

Nj mi

(6.27)

PHGLD YDORULORU FDUDFWHULVWLFH vQ SRSXOD LD JHQHUDO

JUXS  SRQGHULOH ILLQG HJDOH UHVSHFWLY FX

Nj
N

HVWH PHGLD SRQGHUDW

(j = 1, 2, ..., k ).

Analog, n cadrul sondajelor, notnd:

x=

k nj
1

n
j=1i=1

xj =

nj
1
n 
i=1

xi

xi

(6.28)

(6.29)

deducem:

x=

1
n 
j=1

njxj

(6.30)

D PHGLLORU GH

deci media valorilor caracteristicii din sondaj de volum

SRQGHUDW

n ij
n

n = n

HVWH

j=1

HJDO

FX

PHGLD

D PHGLLORU JUXSHORU DOH YDORULORU FDUDFWHULVWLFLL GLQ ILHFDUH VRQGDM SRQGHUHD ILLQG HJDO

FX

(j = 1, 2, ..., k ).
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demonsWUHD]

x HVWH

XQ HVWLPDWRU QHGHSODVDW L FRQVLVWHQW DO PHGLHL JHQHUDOH P GHRDUHFH VH

F 

M x =m
L

N2
j

2
j=1 N

(1 f j ) n

D x =

(6.31)

unde:
"j
2

'XS

Nj
1

N j 1 i=1

(x ij m ) 2 ; f j =

FXP UH]XOW

n
N

GLQ  GLVSHUVLD YDULDELOHL

VXQW PDL PDUL L GLVSHUVLLOH

"j
2

VXQW PDL PLFL 3ULQ XUPDUH FD VRQGDMXO WLSLF V

acceptabile este QHFHVDU L VXILFLHQW FD QXP

5H]XOW

UXO XQLW

FX FkW YROXPHOH Qj
SRDW

LORU H[WUDVH GLQ ILHFDUH JUXS

HURDUHD PHGLH GH UHSUH]HQWDWLYLWDWH L UHVSHFWLY HURDUHD OLPLW

GHSLQG GH GLVSHUVLD WRWDO

'DF

x HVWH FX DWkW PDL PLF

GD UH]XOWDWH

ILH PDUH
DGPLV

QX PDL

L GH PHGLD GLVSHUVLLORU JUXSHORU

VH IRORVHWH GLVSHUVLD GLQ SRSXOD LD GH ED]  HURDUHD OLPLW

YD IL

- pentru sondajul repetat:

2
n de unde:

"


z2"2

n=

x =z

- pentru sondajul nerepetat:

=z

n
N

de unde:

Q PRG DQDORJ VH SURFHGHD]

z2"2

n=

2
n

"

2 2
2+ z
N

L vQ FD]XO FkQG HVWLPDWRUXO

2 este s2.

"

 6RQGDMXO WLSLF SURSRU LRQDO

Se caracteUL]HD]
H[WUDJ DWkWHD XQLW

SULQ IDSWXO F

GLQ ILHFDUH JUXS

vQ FDUH D IRVW vPS U LW

UDSRUWXO GLQWUH YROXPXO JHQHUDO DO HDQWLRQXOXL L YROXPXO SRSXOD LHL DGLF

nj
Nj

n
N

sau

fj=f(j=1, 2, ..., k)

Din (6.32) se deduce:

k

f=

n1
N1

SRSXOD LD JHQHUDO

L vQFkW UDSRUWXO GLQWUH QXP UXO ORU L YROXPXO JUXSHL GLQ FDUH V DX H[WUDV V

n2
N2

= ... =

nk
Nk

nj
j =1
k

 Nj
j =1

n
N

SULQ GHILQL LH

(6.32)

VH

ILH HJDO FX

GH XQGH DSOLFkQG FXQRVFXWD SURSULHWDWH D LUXOXL GH UDSRDUWH HJDOH

VXPD QXPLWRULORU HVWH HJDO

nj =

VXPD QXP U WRULORU 

FX ILHFDUH GLQ UDSRDUWH 

N j = fN j (j = 1, 2, ..., k )

n
N

Introducnd valoarea mai sus a lui nj

vQ H[SUHVLD  L

IXQF LHL GH HVWLPD LH VWDWLVWLF  [ GHYLQH

Dx =

LQkQG VHDPD FD Ij

=f, dispersia

Nj
"j
j=1 N

1f
n

(6.33)

6.6.2. Sondajul tipic optim

'DF

YROXPXO VRQGDMXOXL GH JUXS

Qj HVWH DVWIHO GLPHQVLRQDW vQFkW HILFLHQ D V

atunci sondajul tipic este optim. Acest fapt revine la determinarea numelor nj

ILH PD[LP 

FDUH V

VDWLVIDF

FRQGL LD

n1 +n2 + ... + nk = n
L SHQWUX FDUH

2
j=1 N

(1 f j ) n jj

(6.34)

ILH PLQLP  )RORVLQG PHWRGD PXOWLSOLFDWRULORU OXL /DJUDQJH VH RE LQH

n Nj j
k

"

nj =

N2
j

D x =

 Nj j
j=1

, j = 1, 2, ...,

(6.35)

$FHDVWD HVWH GHFL H[SUHVLD FDUH GHWHUPLQ

PD[LP 

YROXPHOH Qj SHQWUX FDUH HILFLHQ D VRQGDMXOXL HVWH

6.7. SONDAJUL DE SERII. SONDAJUL

N MAI MULTE FAZE
$GHVHD XQLW
PXQFLWRULL OXFUHD]
FD]XUL

VRQGDMXO

LOH FROHFWLYLW

LL JHQHUDOH DOF WXLHVF DD QXPLWHOH XQLW

SRDWH

IL

RUJDQL]DW

FRPSOH[H XUPkQG FD WRDWH XQLW

vQ

DD

IHO

vQFkW

LOH VLPSOH DIHUHQWH XQLW

VH

H[WUDJ

VSUH

VWXGLX

LORU FRPSOH[H H[WUDVH V

QLFL R H[FHS LH Q PRG FXUHQW vQ SUDFWLFD PHWRGHL VRQGDMXOXL XQLW

VDX XQHRUL

L FRPSOH[H 'H SLOG 

vQ FDGUXO DQXPLWRU IRUPD LL GH OXFUX RDPHQLL WU LHVF vQ IDPLOLL HWF Q DVHPHQHD

DVHPHQHD

XQLW

VH FHUFHWH]H I U

LOH FRPSOH[H VH QXPHVF VHULL

GHQXPLUHD GH VRQGDMH GH VHULL

FXLEXUL  'H XQGH UH]XOW

Evaluarea rezultatelor sondajului de serii se face cu ajutorul metodelor descrise la sondajul

DOHDWRU VLPSOX vQORFXLQG vQV
VHULLORU XQLW

QXP UXO XQLW

LORU VLPSOH GLQ SRSXOD LD 1 L GLQ VRQGDM Q FX QXP UXO

LORU FRPSOH[H 5 L U Q ORFXO GLVSHUVLHL GLQWUH YDORULOH LQGLYLGXDOH V

GLVSHUVLD GLQWUH VHULL XQLW

FDOFXO VH SUHVXSXQH F

L FRPSOH[H

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DQDORJ FX GLVSHUVLD GLQWUH JUXSH /D DFHVW

YROXPXO VHULLORU HVWH HJDO Q PRG WDFLW SRDWH IL H[WLQV

FDOFXO L SHQWUX VHULLOH DSUR[LPDWLY HJDOH 'DF

vQV

se utili]HD]

DFHDVW

LSRWHF

GH

YROXPXO VHULLORU HVWH PXOW GLIHULW VXQW QHFHVDUH

alte scheme de calcul. Atunci poate fi asimilat cu un sondaj stratificat.

Q VWDWLVWLFD HFRQRPLF

L VRFLDO

nu la ntmplare, ci n procesXO GH]YROW

FDGUXO XQHL XQLW
FRPSOH[

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sondajul de serii -

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e de reprezentativitate -

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OH

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oritatea cazurilor individuale.

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de obicei pe acelea pe care le

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subiectiv. Deci pe aFHDVW

rezultatelor sondajului.

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