ParkCityRealEstateSta@s@cs

Na@onalandLocalRealEstate
th
4 QuarterandAnnualReview
2013:AGoodYear
RickJ.Klein
PrivateMortgageBanker
NMLSR413601

January21,2013
4356479055

RickJ.Klein
4356479055
NMLSR413601

ParkCityRealEstateSta@s@cs
Todays topics:
Demand
Supply
Cash Sales
Distressed and Foreclosure Sales
Pricing Trends
Questions for the Masterminds
What did you learn today/ any new insights?
Take home message for buyers Talking points for sellers Antidotal stories regarding inventory/listings/buyers

RickJ.Klein
4356479055
NMLSR413601

Demand:PendingSales

RickJ.Klein
4356479055
NMLSR413601

NARannounced(12/30/13)thependedhomesalesindexinched
up0.2%to101.7inNovember,butis1.6%belowNovember
2012whenitwas103.3.
According to Dr Yun: Although the final months of 2013
are finishing on a soft note, the year as a whole will end
with the best sales total in seven years.
GPCPSHIsawadecreaseof3%inNovemberto99.48butis0.6%
higherthanNovemberof2012;pendedsalesinthe4thquarter
typicallydipinParkCity.

Demand:PendingSales

RickJ.Klein
4356479055
NMLSR413601

Demand:PendingSales

RickJ.Klein
4356479055

Pended Sales: Greater Park City

180

As of 12/2013
Source: PCMLS/Rick J. Klein

160

120
100
80
60
40
20
0

Ja
nA 07
pr
Ju -07
l
O -07
ct
Ja -07
nA 08
pr
Ju -08
l
O -08
ct
Ja -08
n
A -09
pr
Ju -09
l
O -09
ct
Ja -09
n
A -10
pr
Ju -10
l
O -10
ct
Ja -10
n
A -11
pr
Ju -11
l
O -11
ct
Ja -11
nA 12
pr
Ju -12
l
O -12
ct
Ja -12
nA 13
pr
Ju -13
l
O -13
ct
-1
3

# of transactions

140

Everymonthpendedsaleshigher
thansamemonthYOYfor23months

Land

SFR

Condos

RickJ.Klein
4356479055

Demand:PendingSales
!"#$%&'(")($*(+,$

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RickJ.Klein
4356479055
NMLSRID413601

Demand:PendingSales
Pended Sales: Greater Park City
4th Quarter Comparison

350

(as of 12/2013)
Source: PCMLS/Rick J. Klein

300

Pendedsales4thQtr
up9.4%over2012
Up21.7%over2011

200

150

100

50

VL

SF

CO

013
Q4
2

012
Q4
2

011
Q4
2

010
Q4
2

009
Q4
2

008
Q4
2

007
Q4
2

006

Q4
2

# of Transactions

250

RickJ.Klein
4356479055
NMLSRID413601

Demand:PendingSales
!"#$"$%&'(")*%+,"'-",%!',.%/0-1%
Annual Comparison
(as of 12/2013)

2000

!"#$%&'()*+,!-./%0(12(34&/5(

1800

Pendedsalesfor2013are
up21%over2012
Up41%over2011

1400
1200
1000
800
600
400
200

VL

SF

CO

3
201

2
201

201
1

0
201

9
200

8
200

7
200

200

# of Transactions

1600

Demand:Exis@ngSales

RickJ.Klein
4356479055
NMLSR413601

NARannounced(1/23)exisZngsalesincreased1%toaSAARof
4.87MinDecemberandare0.6%belowthe4.6Mpacein
Decemberof2012.NovemberandDecemberweretheonly
monthsthisyearthatsawadecreasefromtheyearbefore.2013
sawthehighestlevelofsalessince2006.
DrYunstatedExisZnghomesaleshaverisen20%since2011,
withjobgrowthandrecordlowmortgageratesandlargepent
updemand...welostsomemomentumtowardtheendof2013
fromdisappoinZngjobgrowthandlimitedinventory.
GPCsawadecreaseof15%inthe3monthsrollingaveragein
DecemberfromNovember.DecemberistherstZmein22
monthssaleswerebelowyearagolevels.However,the3month
rollingaverageinDecemberis3%higherthanDecember2012.

Demand:Exis@ngSales

RickJ.Klein
4356479055
NMLSR413601

NAR and PC # of Transactions

7,500,000

As of 12/2013
Source NAR and Rick J. Klein

350.0
300.0

6,500,000

250.0

6,000,000

200.0

5,500,000

150.0

5,000,000

100.0

4,500,000

50.0

4,000,000

0.0

Ja

nJu 00
Ja l-00
nJu 01
Ja l-01
nJu 02
Ja l-02
nJu 03
Ja l-03
nJu 04
Ja l-04
nJu 05
Ja l-05
nJu 06
Ja l-06
nJu 07
Ja l-07
nJu 08
Ja l-08
nJu 09
Ja l-09
nJu 10
Ja l-10
nJu 11
Ja l-11
nJu 12
Ja l-12
nJu 13
Ja l-13
n14

7,000,000

NAR SAAR Left Axis

PC 3 Mo Rolling Avg Right Axis

Jan
Ma -07
r
Ma -07
yJul 07
Se -07
p
No -07
v
Jan-07
Ma -08
r
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y-0
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r
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yJul 09
Se -09
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v
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y-1
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v
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Ma -11
r
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y-1
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Se -11
p
No -11
v
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Ma -12
r
Ma -12
yJul 12
Se -12
p
No -12
v
Jan-12
Ma -13
r
Ma -13
y-1
Jul 3
Se -13
p
No -13
v-1
3

# of Transactions

Demand:Exis@ngSales

200

180

140

120

CO
SF
VL

RickJ.Klein
4356479055
NMLSR413601

Closed Sales: Greater Park City

Number of Transactions
(as of 12/2013)
Source: PCMLS/ Rick J. Klein

160

December2013rstmonth
in22monthsclosedsalesnothigher
thantheYOYmonthbefore

100

80

60

40

20

RickJ.Klein
RickJ.Klein
4356479055
4356479055

Demand:Exis@ngSales

NMLSRID413601
NMLSR413601

Closed Sales: Greater Park City

4th Quarter Comparison
(as of 12/2013)

450

Source: PCMLS/Rick J. Klein

400

ClosedsalesthruQ413areup
3%aboveQ42012and
34%aboveQ42011

300
250
200
150
100
50

Condo

Sf

VL

13
Q4

12
Q4

11
Q4

10
Q4

09
Q4

08
Q4

07
Q4

06

Q4

# of Transactions

350

RickJ.Klein
4356479055
NMLSRID413601

Demand:Exis@ngSales
Closed Sales: Greater Park City
Annual Comparison

2000

(as of 12/2013)
Source: PCMLS/Rick J. Klein

1800

Closedsalesfor2013are
17.6%above2012and
31.7%aboveQ42011

1400

16%

1200
1000

38%

800
600
400

46%
200

3
201

2
201

201
1

0
201

9
200

8
200

7
200

0
200

Number of Transactions

1600

RickJ.Klein
4356479055
NMLSRID413601

Demand:Exis@ngSales
Greater Park City Annual Volume
(as of 12/2013)
Source: PCMLS/Rick J. Klein

1,800,000,000
1,600,000,000

Volume for 2013 is

20.2% above 2012 and
37.8% above Q4 2011

1,200,000,000

9%

1,000,000,000
800,000,000

58%
600,000,000
400,000,000

33%

200,000,000

Condo

SF

VL

3
201

2
201

201
1

0
201

9
200

8
200

7
200

0
200

Voume Sold

1,400,000,000

RickJ.Klein
4356479055

Demand:Exis@ngSales
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Supply:Inventory

RickJ.Klein
4356479055
NMLSR413601

NAR: Total housing inventory at the end of December

declined 9.3% to 1.86M existing homes available for sale,
which represents a 4.6 month supply at the current sales
pace, compared with 4.9 months in October. Unsold
inventory is 1.3% above a year ago, when there was a 4.5
month supply.
GPCtotallisZngsJanuary1stwas1,113;thisisthesameforthe
pastthreemonths.However,currentinventoryisdown7.3%
fromthisZmelastyearandthisremainsarecordlowsince
January2007.TheabsorpZonrateincreasedfrom6.1to7.4
monthsduetothereducednumberofsales.

Supply:Inventory

RickJ.Klein
4356479055
NMLSR413601

Supply:Inventory

RickJ.Klein
4356479055
NMLSR413601

Active Listings - Greater Park City

2500

(Inventory as of first of the month)

Januaryr 2013
Source: PC MLS & Rick Klein

1,113LisLngs1/1/14athistoriclows

# of listings

2000

1500

1000

31%
34%

500

35%
0

07 -07 -07 -08 -08 -08 -09 -09 -09 -10 -10 -10 -11 -11 -11 -12 -12 -12 -13 -13 -13 -14
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CO

RickJ.Klein
4356479055
NMLSRID413601

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9-:-;"-%)<=>?)

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50

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40
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30
25
20
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10
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l-1
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ct
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Ja
n

# of Months

45

Supply:1/1/14comparedto1/1/13
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4356479055

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4356479055
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4356479055
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CashSales

RickJ.Klein
4356479055
NMLSR413601

NARstatedcashsaleswere32%ofpurchasesinNovember,up
fromfrom31%inOctober;theywere30%inNovember2012.
Investors,whoaccountformostcashsales,purchased19%of
homesinNovember,sameasOctoberandNovember2012.Last
month7outof10investorspaidcash.
GPCcashsalesdeclinedto48%in2013,downfrom50%in2012
However,thenumberofnancedsalesimprovedthroughout
theyear.

RickJ.Klein
4356479055

CashSales

NMLSR413601

Cash Sales History

Source: PCMLS/Rick J. Klein

60%

50%

% of Cash Sales

50%

48%

45%

40%

30%

48%

50%

35%
26%

20%

10%

0%
2007

2008

2009

2010
Cash Sales

2011

2012

2013

RickJ.Klein
4356479055

CashSales

NMLSR413601

Cash Sales History - 2013

Source: PCMLS/Rick J. Klein

70%
60%

58%
48%

% of Cash Sales

50%

45%

45%

Q3 2013

Q4 2o13

40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Q1 2013

Q2 2013
Cash Sales

DistressedSales

RickJ.Klein
4356479055
NMLSR413601

NAR:Distressedhomesaccountedfor14%ofsalesinDecember
10%REOand4%shortsales;theywere24%inDecember2012.
Foreclosuressoldfor18%belowmarketvalueandshortsales
werediscounted13%
GPCdistressedproperZesaccountedfor3.4%ofQ42013sales
downsharplyfrom13%inQ42012.Distressedsalessoldfor
only2%belowmarkettransacZons.

RickJ.Klein
4356479055
NMLSRID413601

DistressedSales
!"##$%&'(")%*&+$,%-.,,./&!01.,&0)/&2$,3)4,&56&789:&
All Property types excluding fractionals
4.00%

!"#$%&'(!#))*+(,"#-+.(/&%"$0&$1(2,34!5/*%6(78(9:&*-(

3.50%

% of transactions

3.00%
2.50%

1.57%

2.00%

0.43%

1.50%
1.00%

1.84%
1.43%

0.50%
0.00%

% Sold

% Listed
Short Sale

Bank Owned

RickJ.Klein
4356479055
NMLSRID413601

DistressedSales
Summit County Distressed Sales Q4
All Property types excluding fractionals

35.0%

Source: Summit County Recorder, PCMLS/Rick J. Klein

30.0%

31.2%

% Distressed

25.0%

20.0%

15.0%

13.04%

10.0%

5.0%

5.66%
6.0%

3.41%

0.0%
4th Qtr 11

4th Qtr 12
% Sold
% Listed

1.85%

4th Qtr 13

RickJ.Klein
4356479055

DistressedSales
Percent of Distressed Sales Summit County

45.0%

Source: Summit County Recorder, PCMLS/Rick J. Klein

40.0%
35.0%
30.0%
25.0%
20.0%
15.0%
10.0%
5.0%

Short Sale

REO

13
Q4

13
Q3

13
Q2

13
Q1

12
Q4

12
Q3

12
Q2

12
Q1

11
Q4

11
Q3

11
Q2

11
Q1

10
Q4

Q3

10

0.0%

Distressed Sales & Pricing

RickJ.Klein
4356479055
NMLSRID413601

Greater Park City Median Prices

6 month rolling average
(as of 12/2013)

$650,000

Source: PCMLS/Rick J. Klein

AspercentageofdistressedproperLesdeclines,
dierenceinsalespricenarrows

$600,000

30.00%

25.00%

20.00%

$500,000

15.00%

$450,000

10.00%

$400,000

5.00%

$350,000

0.00%

Se
O p-1
Noct-10
Dev-10
0
Jac-1
0
Fen-1
1
M b-1
a 1
Apr-1
M r-11
a 1
Ju y-1
n 1
Ju -11
Au l-1
1
Seg-1
1
O p-11
Noct-1
1
Dev-1
1
Ja c-1
1
Fen-1
2
M b-1
a 2
Apr-1
M r-12
a 2
Ju y-1
n 2
Ju -12
Au l-1
Seg-12
2
O p-1
Noct-12
Dev-12
2
Ja c-1
2
Fen-1
3
M b-1
a 3
Apr-1
M r-13
a 3
Ju y-1
n 3
Ju -13
Au l-1
Seg-13
3
O p-1
Noct-13
Dev-13
c- 3
13

$550,000

All

Ex Distressed

% Distressed right axis

ShadowInventory/Foreclosures

RickJ.Klein
4356479055

CoreLogicannounced(1/9/2014)shadowinventoryfellto1.7M
homesasofNovember2013a24%decreasefromlastyear;this
isthelowestlevelsinceAugust2008.
AsofNovembertherewereapprox.812Khomesinsomestage
offoreclosurecomparedto1.2MinNovember2012;adecrease
of34%.InaddiZon,therewerefewerthan5%ofallloansin
seriousdelinquency.

ShadowInventory/Foreclosures

RickJ.Klein
4356479055

ShadowInventory/Foreclosures

RickJ.Klein
4356479055
NMLSRID413601

Foreclosure Report - Wasatch County

Source: Wasatch County Recorder/Rick J. Klein

160
140

In2013,NODShavenot
shownimprovement;TTDsup.

120
100
80
60
40
20

Notice of Default

4
10
Q
1
1
Q 1
2
11
Q
3
11
Q
4
1
Q 1
1
1
Q 2
2
12
Q
3
1
Q 2
4
1
Q 2
1
1
Q 3
2
13
Q
3
1
Q 3
4
13

10

10

10

09

09

09

09

08

08

08

08

07

07

07

2
Q

07

Trustee's Deed

ShadowInventory/Foreclosures

RickJ.Klein
4356479055
NMLSRID413601

Foreclosure Report - Wasatch County

Annual Comparison

600

Source: Wasatch Countty Recorder/Rick J. Klein

2013NODsaredown30%and
TTDsaredown43%from2012

500
400
300
200
100

Notice of Default

Trustee's Deed

13
20

12
20

11
20

10
20

09
20

08
20

20

07

ShadowInventory/Foreclosures

RickJ.Klein
4356479055
NMLSRID413601

Foreclosure Report - Summit County

Source: Summi County Recorder/Rick J. Klein

250

200

In2013,NODSaredownnearly
50%fromQ1;TTDsshowliWlegain
150

100

50

Q 07
2
Q 07
3
Q 07
4
Q 07
1
Q 08
2
Q 09
3
Q 08
4
Q 08
1
Q 09
2
Q 09
3
Q 09
4
Q 09
1
Q 10
2
Q 10
3
Q 10
4
1
Q 0
1
Q 11
2
Q 11
3
Q 11
4
Q 11
1
Q 12
2
Q 12
3
Q 12
4
Q 12
1
Q 13
2
Q 13
3
Q 13
4
13

Notice of Default

Trustee's Deed

RickJ.Klein
4356479055
NMLSRID413601

ShadowInventory/Foreclosures
Foreclosure Report - Summit County
Annual Comparison
Source: Summit County Recorder/Rick J. Klein

600

2013NODsaredown20%and
TTDsaredown26%from2012

500
400
300
200
100

Notice of Default

Trustee's Deed

13
20

12
20

11
20

10
20

09
20

08
20

20

07

HomePrices
NAR(1/23)statedmedianexisZnghomepricerose9.9%to
$198,000fromoneyearago.
CaseShillerannounced(12/31)homepricesincreased13.6%for
the12monthsendingOctoberforthe10and20City
Composite:highestgainsinceFebruary2006.
FHFAstated(12/24)homepricesincreased8.2%forthe12
monthsendingOctober2013.
CoreLogicreported(12/22)homepricesincreased11.8%in
NovembercomparedtoNovember2012;excludingdistressed
sales,theHPIincreased10.4%,
GPC6monthrollingmedianwas$505,967inDecemberup
7.9%;GPC12monthmedianwas$508,250up7%fromone
yearago.

RickJ.Klein
4356479055
NMLSR413601

RickJ.Klein
4356479055

HomePrices

NMLSR413601

NAR and PC Median Price Trends

As of 12/2013

PC Median right axis

13

1/
1/

1/
1/

1/
1

1/
1/

1/
1/

1/
1/

1/
1/

1/
1/

1/
1/

1/
1/

1/
1/

1/
1/

1/
1/

US Median left axis

12

$100,000

/1
1

$100,000

10

$200,000

09

$120,000

08

$300,000

07

$140,000

06

$400,000

05

$160,000

04

$500,000

03

$180,000

02

$600,000

01

$200,000

00

$700,000

PC 6 Mo Rolling Avg

$800,000

Source: NAR, PCMLS/Rick J. Klein

$220,000

1/
1/

NAR Median

$240,000

HomePrices

RickJ.Klein
4356479055
NMLSR413601

HomePrices

RickJ.Klein
4356479055
NMLSR413601

HomePrices

RickJ.Klein
4356479055
NMLSR413601

HomePrices

Source:FHFA

RickJ.Klein
4356479055
NMLSR413601

Ja
M n-0
a 1
Se y-0
p 1
Ja -0
1
M n-0
a 2
Se y-0
p 2
Ja -0
2
M n-0
a 3
Se y-0
p- 3
Ja 0
3
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a 4
Se y-0
p 4
Ja -0
4
M n-0
ay 5
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p 9
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9
M n-1
a 0
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p- 0
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0
M n-1
a 1
Se y-1
1
Ja p-1
1
M n-1
ay 2
Se -1
p 2
Ja -1
2
M n-1
a 3
Se y-1
p- 3
13

HomePrices

$800,000

$600,000

6 mo Rolling Median Price

RickJ.Klein
4356479055
NMLSRID413601

Greater Park City Median Prices

6 month rolling median

(as of 12/2013)
Source: PCMLS/Rick J. Klein

$700,000

2013:6monthrollingavg.up7.9%

$500,000

$400,000

$300,000

$200,000

$100,000

$0

RickJ.Klein
4356479055
NMLSRID413601

HomePrices
,-./0.-"1/-2"3405"6.74/8"1-49.:"
!"#$%&'(#$)*+,&"
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2013:12monthmedianprice
up7%above2012
Up11.4%above2011

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HomePricesbySegment

RickJ.Klein
4356479055

-./0.1"23451"#6,"

("7."74085/"938:4;+<3"
21".="#$;$!#%"
!"#$%&'()*+!,-.%/'01'23&.4'

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Median Price Q4 12 to Q4 13 down 15%
Median Price $/Sq Ft Q4 12 to Q4 13 up 11%

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->"#6,"740"938:4"?@4A"5B81C"

->"#6,"D;EF"G<"?H8IJ<"2B81C"

HomePricesbySegment

RickJ.Klein
4356479055

,-./-0"12340"$!5%&!

6"7-"73/84."928:3;(<2!

#!!!!!"

10"-="$%;%!$&!
"#$%&'!()*+",-.&/!01!23'.4!

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Median Price Q4 12 to Q4 13 up 17%
Median Price $/Sq Ft Q4 12 to Q4 13 up 7%

%!!!!!"

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,>"$!5%&"73/"928:3"?@3A<"1B80C"

,>"$!5%&"73/"D;EFG<"?H8IJ<"1B80C"

RickJ.Klein
4356479055

HomePricesbySegment
,-$./012$!3+!

4$56$507819$:/8;0<)=/!
.2$6>$!%<%#!&!
"#$%&'!()*+",-.&/!01!23'.4!

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Median Price Q4 12 to Q4 13 up 28%
Median Price $/Sq Ft Q4 12 to Q4 13 up 23%

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,-$!3+$507$DE,F-=$?G8HI=$.B82C$

RickJ.Klein
4356479055

HomePricesbySegment
-."/0123"$!4%&!

("56"517829":08;1<*=0!
/3"6>",<%!$&!
"#$%&'!()*+",-.&/!01!23'.4!

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Median Price Q4 12 to Q4 13 up 7%
Median Price $/Sq Ft Q4 12 to Q4 13 up 3%

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Q4 2013 Snap Shot

!"#$%&$
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RickJ.Klein
4356479055
NMLSR413601

!"#$%&$

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290,584,305 330,598,772 13.8%
*Median: based on 12 months 2BIJK'

349,000

RickJ.Klein
4356479055

MortgageRates

NMLSR413601

RatesquotedforapurchasetransacZonw/onepoint(asof1/23/13)

Conforming

30 Year Fixed

5/1 ARM

4.500%

3.375%

4.586% APR

3.127% APR

High Balance

4.500%

3.625%

($600,300)

4.542% APR

3.175% APR

4.375%

3.000%

Non-Conforming

4.403% APR

2.944% APR

Conforming 15 year fixed: 3.75%; APR 3.898%

InSummary

RickJ.Klein
4356479055
NMLSR413601

Demandremainsstrong:totalnumberofsalesin2013were17%
higherthan2012.
Inventoryisdown7%fromlastlastyearandisatthelowestlevel
sincewestartedkeepingrecordsin2007.
PropertypricesshowsustainedappreciaZon.Medianpricesare7%
higherthanin2013.
ForeclosuresandshortsaleshavedeclineddramaZcallythispastyear
andnowmakeuplessthan4%ofourtotalnumberofsales.
Ourmarketishighlysegmented;consumersneedknowledgeable
professionalagentsforsellingorpurchasingproperty.
Ratesaregreatandyourreferralsareappreciated.

DebriefandBrainstorm
Questions for the Masterminds
What did you learn today/ any new insights?
Take home message for buyers Talking points for sellers Antidotal stories regarding inventory/listings/buyers -

RickJ.Klein
4356479055
NMLSR413601