Holt Winter Additive Method

Alpha
Month

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12

Jan-12
Feb-12
Mar-12
Apr-12
May-12
Jun-12
Jul-12
Aug-12
Sep-12
Oct-12
Nov-12
Dec-12
Jan-13
Feb-13
Mar-13
Apr-13
May-13
Jun-13
Jul-13
Aug-13
Sep-13
Oct-13
Nov-13
Dec-13
Jan-14
Feb-14
Mar-14
Apr-14
May-14
Jun-14
Jul-14
Aug-14
Sep-14
Oct-14
Nov-14
Dec-14

Yt

323
346
356
289
354
435
301
324
327
246
253
201
225
342
358
321
246
396
406
422
503
480
390
432

Lt

0.590719
LEVEL
St

Beta
0.10585
0.0001
SEASON TREND
Tt
Forecast Error square

312.9167
312.9167
312.9167
312.9167
312.9167
312.9167
312.9167
312.9167
312.9167
312.9167
312.9167
312.9167
255.0262
284.3524
301.4353
326.9915
255.8713
264.3367
353.4641
389.8372
452.1182
514.1712
484.3161
525.4736

10.08333
33.08333
43.08333
-23.9167
41.08333
122.0833
-11.9167
11.08333
14.08333
-66.9167
-59.9167
-111.917
10.10544
33.11446
43.11486
-23.8824
41.10436
122.1111
-11.8755
11.12351
14.13075
-66.864
-59.8731
-111.864

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
-6.12771
-2.37491
-0.3153
2.423203
-5.36137
-3.8978
5.948912
9.169315
14.79119
19.79385
14.5385
17.35613

323
281.9818
325.0608
277.2033
370.4981
372.5933
248.5223
370.4963
413.0899
399.9927
474.0484
386.9379
552.9352
593.3003
620.6569
571.0157
653.3586
751.7215
635.0911
675.4462
695.8095
632.171
656.5179
621.8832

9604
3602.186643
1084.990953
1918.148689
15499.77116
547.8751054
24799.23311
2652.626404
8083.831095
6401.164735
7064.138992
2030.593853

MSE

6940.713395

Dabur india Sales Forecasting By Exponential method

Alpha
Year
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24

Jan-12
Feb-12
Mar-12
Apr-12
May-12
Jun-12
Jul-12
Aug-12
Sep-12
Oct-12
Nov-12
Dec-12
Jan-13
Feb-13
Mar-13
Apr-13
May-13
Jun-13
Jul-13
Aug-13
Sep-13
Oct-13
Nov-13
Dec-13
Jan-14

MSE

0.6018721

Ival
323
346
356
289
354
435
301
324
327
246
253
201
225
342
358
321
246
396
406
422
503
480
390
432

Forecast
ESS
323
323
336.84306
348.37309
312.63808
337.53267
396.19553
338.9
329.93211
328.16735
278.71312
263.23711
225.77833
225.30988
295.5424
333.13388
325.83084
277.78289
348.93446
383.28062
406.58473
464.61439
473.87456
423.3928

529.0000
366.9885
3525.1633
1710.8081
9499.8812
9062.1891
222.0100
8.5972
6751.4740
661.1645
3873.4580
0.6058
13616.5850
3900.9516
147.2312
6372.9628
13975.2857
3256.4753
1499.1907
9295.9040
236.7171
7034.9415
74.0838

y Exponential method
4157.4638

Ival
2016
1908
2007
1742
1838
2000
2232
2052
2511
2520
2286
2367
2367
2511
2574
2232
2106
2502
2529
2322
2727
3330
3006
2835
2808

Holt method
Alpha
Month

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12

Jan-12
Feb-12
Mar-12
Apr-12
May-12
Jun-12
Jul-12
Aug-12
Sep-12
Oct-12
Nov-12
Dec-12
Jan-13
Feb-13
Mar-13
Apr-13
May-13
Jun-13
Jul-13
Aug-13
Sep-13
Oct-13
Nov-13
Dec-13
Jan-14
Feb-14
Mar-14
Apr-14
May-14
Jun-14
Jul-14
Aug-14
Sep-14
Oct-14
Nov-14
Dec-14

0.459085
LEVEL
Lt

Yt

323
346
356
289
354
435
301
324
327
246
253
201
225
342
358
321
246
396
406
422
503
480
390
432

323
333.559
339.271
346.9519
320.3484
335.7972
381.3404
344.4605
335.0685
331.365
292.1757
274.189
240.5864
233.4265
283.2661
317.5732
319.1461
285.5656
336.2624
368.2786
392.9437
443.4727
460.2483
428.0058

Beta
TREND
Tt

0.000000
0.001056
0.001627
0.002395
-0.000266
0.001279
0.005833
0.002145
0.001205
0.000835
-0.003084
-0.004882
-0.008242
-0.008957
-0.003972
-0.000541
-0.000384
-0.003742
0.001328
0.004529
0.006996
0.012048
0.013724
0.010498

0.00010000000

MSE
Forecast

323
333.56001
339.27265
346.95432
320.3481
335.79846
381.34623
344.46263
335.06975
331.36588
292.1726
274.18417
240.57817
233.41751
283.26213
317.57262
319.1457
285.56186
336.26368
368.28311
392.95072
443.48474
460.26207
428.016308
428.02681
428.03731
428.0478
428.0583
428.0688
428.0793
428.0898
428.1003
428.11079
428.12129
428.13179

5907
Error square

529
503.5531203
2527.339345
49.64160268
13145.05909
1210.932769
3288.590226
304.9433487
7933.419942
6141.211553
8312.443558
2419.082241
10286.38721
15520.7969
1424.146924
5122.640268
5906.584052
14505.34491
7350.716226
18148.64088
7577.576686
2860.617616
798.7447675

Holt Winter Multiplicative Method

Alpha
Month

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12

Jan-12
Feb-12
Mar-12
Apr-12
May-12
Jun-12
Jul-12
Aug-12
Sep-12
Oct-12
Nov-12
Dec-12
Jan-13
Feb-13
Mar-13
Apr-13
May-13
Jun-13
Jul-13
Aug-13
Sep-13
Oct-13
Nov-13
Dec-13
Jan-14
Feb-14
Mar-14
Apr-14
May-14
Jun-14
Jul-14
Aug-14
Sep-14
Oct-14
Nov-14
Dec-14

Yt

Lt

323
346
356
289
354
435
301
324
327
246
253
201
225
342
358
321
246
396
406
422
503
480
390
432

312.9167
312.9167
312.9167
312.9167
312.9167
312.9167
312.9167
312.9167
312.9167
312.9167
312.9167
312.9167
289.9085
277.1771
276.6175
293.3863
287.6874
282.6866
312.6772
358.3923
422.8222
517.1357
580.1635
650.3054

0.242343
Beta
0.9999
LEVEL SEASON TREND
St
Tt
Forecast

1.032224
1.105726
1.137683
0.923569
1.131292
1.390146
0.961917
1.035419
1.045007
0.786152
0.808522
0.642344
1.032198
1.105739
1.137699
0.923586
1.131264
1.390148
0.961951
1.035434
1.045021
0.786166
0.808508
0.642346

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
-23.0059
-12.7324
-0.56075
16.76701
-5.69661
-5.00085
29.98705
45.71355
64.42802
94.31051
63.03089
70.14124

323
295.121
300.8542
254.9574
350.8738
392.0085
267.1108
354.8012
422.2933
383.0527
494.3677
413.1517
743.6437
874.1835
979.2505
859.7385
1132.408
1489.061
1097.869
1254.361
1339.275
1062.675
1149.585
958.38

0.0001
Error square

9604
2197.640214
3265.642187
4361.628791
10998.51578
15.93175124
19290.20624
4515.67695
6513.567219
9398.788452
10892.61726
355.2567647

MSE

tiplicative Method
6784.123