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Energy Output Estimation For Small-Scale Wind
Energy Output Estimation For Small-Scale Wind
n
i1
f
i
f
i
N
: 2
The mean wind speed and its standard deviation are calculated using the following
equations, respectively, as given in [15],
% v
n
i1
f
i
v
i
n
i1
f
i
1
N
n
i1
f
i
v
i
_ _
; 3
s
1
N 1
n
i1
f
i
v
i
v
2
_ _
1=2
: 4
Table 1 (continued)
Cardiff Canberra Davos Athens Ankara
Lat. 51.30N 35.18S 46.48N 38.00N 39.55N
Lon. 3.13W 149.08E 9.50E 23.44E 32.50E
rising above
1800 m
Wind speed
measurement
3-cup rotor
anemometer
3-cup rotor
anemometer
3-cup rotor
anemometer
3-cup rotor
anemometer
Recorded by
R. Fuess type
of anemograph
in a synoptical
station
Values taken
every 10 s were
averaged over
5 min and
stored in a data-
logger. The 5-
min averaged
data were
further
averaged over
1 h
Values taken
every 30 s were
averaged over
10 min. The 10-
min averaged
data were
further
averaged over
1 h
Values taken
every 5 s were
averaged over
1 min and
stored in a
data-logger.
The 1-min
averaged data
were further
averaged over
1 h
Values taken
every 10 s were
averaged over
10 min and
stored in a
data-logger.
The 10-min
averaged data
were further
averaged
over1 h
Continuously
recorded wind
speed data
averaged over
1 h and stored
A.N. Celik / J. Wind Eng. Ind. Aerodyn. 91 (2003) 693707 698
However, if the probability function is already known, Eqs. (3) and (4) are
determined using
v
_
N
0
vf v dv; 5
s
_
N
0
v v
2
f v dv
_ _
1=2
: 6
The mean wind speed and its standard deviation for this particular month are
3.29 and 1.73 m/s, respectively. The monthly mean wind speeds and their
standard deviations are presented in Table 3 for the locations given. Most of
the monthly mean wind speeds are between 2.0 and 3.0 m/s, some over 3.0 m/s
and few over 4.0 m/s and under 2.0 m/s. While December of Cardiff 1994 has
the highest mean wind speed value with 4.1 m/s, January of Davos exhibits the
minimum monthly mean wind speed value, which is 1.69 m/s. The yearly mean wind
speeds range from 2.17 to 2.89 m/s. As these wind speeds suggest, the locations
studied represent poor wind sites. The monthly and yearly mean standard deviation
values are mostly between 1.0 and 2.0 m/s, only a few over 2.0 m/s. The deviation
values could only be assessed together with the wind speed. While a large monthly
deviation with a high wind speed value indicates large day-to-day variation in the
wind speed, a small monthly deviation with a high wind speed value indicates little
day-to-day variation but longer windy time spans and a following windless time
span. The cumulative probability given in the sixth column of Table 2 is calculated
from
Fv
i
j
i1
f v
i
; 7
Table 2
Data arranged in frequency distribution format based on the measured data in time-series format for
January of Cardiff 1996, measured at TyB site near Cardiff, UK, and the probability density distribution
calculated from the Weibull function, f
w
v
i
i v v
i
f
i
f(v
i
) F(v) f
w
(v
i
)
1 01 0.59 61 0.082 0.082 0.096
2 12 1.47 119 0.160 0.242 0.187
3 23 2.56 164 0.220 0.462 0.222
4 34 3.49 166 0.223 0.685 0.198
5 45 4.44 127 0.171 0.856 0.147
6 56 5.42 54 0.073 0.929 0.093
7 67 6.46 26 0.035 0.964 0.049
8 78 7.44 17 0.023 0.987 0.023
9 89 8.50 10 0.013 1.000 0.009
10 910 9.50 0 0.000 1.000 0.003
n
i1
f
i
N 744
n
i1
f v
i
1:0
n
i1
f
w
v
i
1:02
A.N. Celik / J. Wind Eng. Ind. Aerodyn. 91 (2003) 693707 699
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A.N. Celik / J. Wind Eng. Ind. Aerodyn. 91 (2003) 693707 700
where jpi and for i=1, 2, y, n
Fv
n
n
i1
f v
i
1: 8
Replacing f v
i
by the continuous Weibull function given by
f
w
v
k
c
_ _
v
c
_ _
k1
exp
v
c
_ _
k
_ _
; 9
where c is the scale parameter in m/s, k is the unitless shape parameter, and by
substitution of x v=c
k
and solving Eq. (5) for v, G being the gamma function
(Gx
_
N
0
x
x1
expx dx), the following are obtained,
v cG 1 1=k
_
; 10
s c G1 2=k G
2
1 1=k
_
1=2
: 11
Knowing G1 x xGx for the gamma function, Eqs. (10) and (11) can be
solved together to identify the c and k parameters, using the Stirling approximation
for the gamma function given by
Gx
2px
_
x
x1
e
x
1
1
12x
1
288x
2
?
_ _
: 12
There are different ways to calculate the Weibull distribution model parameters, c
and k. Jamil [16] presents two ways to determine the Weibull parameters. As well as
the method addressed above, using the gamma function, the cumulative probability
method, which employs least-squares t (LSQM) to the observed distribution, is
explained by Jamil. Besides the commonly used graphical method (known as
LSQM), Seguro and Lambert [17] present two more methods for calculating the
parameters: the maximum likelihood method, and the proposed modied maximum
likelihood method. The reference energy output was calculated using the sample
time-series data set. This value was then compared to the total energy output
corresponding to each of the three estimated Weibull distributions. It was concluded
by Seguro and Lambert [17] that the maximum likelihood method is recommended
for use with time-series wind data, and the modied maximum likelihood method is
recommended for use with wind data in frequency distribution format. Lun and Lam
[18] calculated the two parameters of the Weibull density distribution function for
three different locations in Hong Kong, using a long-term data source, consisting of
30 years of hourly mean wind speed data. Garcia et al. [19] dealt with the estimation
of the annual Weibull and Lognormal parameters from 20 locations in Navarre,
Spain. The wind speed data used in [19] were in hourly time-series format, collected
every 10 min and then averaged over 1 h. Both Lun and Lam [18] and Garcia et al.
[19] used the traditional graphical method for the Weibull parameters. Protoger-
opoulos [20] studied the inuence of wind speed frequency on wind resource
calculation, using two time steps, hourly and 5 min data. He concluded that the
hourly time resolution, compared to 5 min resolution, provides satisfactory accuracy
in wind resource estimation. As the references indicate, the resolution of time-series
A.N. Celik / J. Wind Eng. Ind. Aerodyn. 91 (2003) 693707 701
wind data used in wind probability distribution analysis is hourly, which is the
average of measurements at shorter time intervals, 5 s to 10 min. In the literature, it
was also noted that the data used in wind probability distribution analyses are of the
hourly time-series type, rather than any other type (such as gusty type).
The c and k parameters calculated for this particular month in the present study
are 3.72 m/s and 1.89, respectively. The Weibull probability density distribution
f
w
v
i
calculated using these values are given in the last column of Table 2. When
it is compared to the measured probability density distribution given in the
fth column, it is obvious that the Weibull model is a reasonable t for this
particular month. However, the main criterion in judging the suitability of a
distribution function is its success in predicting the wind energy output, which will be
dealt with in the next section. The monthly Weibull distribution parameters
identied are given in Table 4 for the selected locations. The monthly scale
parameter mostly changes between 2.0 and 4.0 m/s, it is over 4.0 m/s in only 3
months and under 2.0 m/s in 5 months. As expected, most of the monthly shape
parameters are between 1.0 and 2.0, it is over 2.0 in 5 months and under 1.0 only in 1
month. For a k value close to 1, the relative frequency distribution as a function of
velocity is relatively at, indicating a highly variable wind regime, whereas for kX3;
the relative frequency distribution becomes more peaked, which indicates more
regular, steadier winds.
4. Wind energy output
In the present article, the wind energy calculations were carried out for a wind
turbine of 50 W nominal power with 0.65 m
2
swept area. The power output can be
calculated either by using the analytical model for the performance of this type of
wind turbine or, alternatively, by correlating the wind generator response to wind
speed by a polynomial curve. The output power for this wind turbine was measured
for a range of wind speeds at the outdoor hybrid experimental site of the Solar
Energy Unit of Cardiff University, and tted with a polynomial curve of 3rd degree
[21]. The tted curve is given by the following form:
P
out
0:964 2:299v 1:214v
2
0:0572v
3
13
with the cut-in and cut-out wind speed values of 1.45 and 13.0 m/s, respectively.
Energy output comparison is used as the main test to determine the accuracy
of the Weibull-representative wind speed data. The energy output calculated
using the time-series data serves as the reference energy output E
TS
; which is
determined by
E
TS
N
i1
P
out;i
Dt
i
; 14
where Dt
i
is the hourly time interval. The energy output using the Weibull-
representative data, which will be referred to as the Weibull-representative energy
A.N. Celik / J. Wind Eng. Ind. Aerodyn. 91 (2003) 693707 702
T
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A.N. Celik / J. Wind Eng. Ind. Aerodyn. 91 (2003) 693707 703
output, E
WR
; is calculated from
E
WR
n
i1
P
out;i
f
w
v
i
NDt
i
: 15
Fig. 1 presents the monthly reference energy outputs versus the Weibull-
representative energy outputs for Cardiff 1996. For this particular site in Cardiff,
it could be concluded that the wind energy generator works, for most of the time,
under the rated power output. The yearly average monthly energy output value of
2.53 kWh for this specic wind turbine (of 50 W nominal power) proves that fact.
The most energy contribution is made in January with 4.67 kWh, while the least
energy contribution is observed to be 1.48 kWh in August. Fig. 2 shows the
magnitude of the monthly errors in the Weibull-representative energy outputs
relative to the reference energy outputs. It could be said that the Weibull-
representative energy outputs agree well with the reference energy outputs. The
Weibull-representative data overestimate the energy output in 8 months, and
underestimate in 4 of the months. For this particular year, the maximum error is a
6.45% underestimation, occurring in November, while the minimum error is a
1.30% overestimation that occurs in October. The yearly average error is 2.25% for
this particular year, determined from the following equation
Error%
1
12
12
i1
E
WR;i
E
TS;i
E
TS;i
: 16
The errors in the Weibull-representative energy outputs relative to the reference
energy outputs are given in Fig. 3 for selected locations. It is noted that the reference
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
From t ime-series dat a
From Weibull-represent at ive dat a
Months
W
i
n
d
e
n
e
r
g
y
o
u
t
p
u
t
(
k
W
h
/
m
o
n
t
h
)
Fig. 1. Monthly wind energy output calculated using the measured data in time-series format and the
Weibull-representative data, for a wind turbine of 50 W nominal power, for Cardiff 1996 data.
A.N. Celik / J. Wind Eng. Ind. Aerodyn. 91 (2003) 693707 704
energy outputs are underestimated by the Weibull-representative data in every
month of Davos and in 11 months of Canberra. It is also interesting to note that
these two locations have the lowest yearly mean wind speeds amongst the given 8
locations, as could be seen from Table 3. Out of 96 months analysed, the maximum
error is an 8.8% underestimation, which occurs in January of Davos. No error
occurs in January of Cardiff 1995. The yearly average errors calculated from Eq. (16)
-7%
-6%
-5%
-4%
-3%
-2%
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
E
r
r
o
r
Months
Fig. 2. Error in wind energy output estimation using the Weibull-representative data in reference to the
energy output using the measured data in time-series format, for Cardiff 1996 data.
-10%
-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Cardiff 1994 Cardiff 1995 Cardiff 1996 Canbe rra
Davos At hens Ankara Cardiff 1991
Months
E
r
r
o
r
Fig. 3. Error in wind energy output estimation using the Weibull-representative data in reference to the
energy output using the measured data in time-series format, for various locations.
A.N. Celik / J. Wind Eng. Ind. Aerodyn. 91 (2003) 693707 705
are presented in Table 5 for the locations given. The overall error in the wind energy
output estimation using the Weibull-representative data relative to that using the
measured data in time-series format is 2.79%, for the total of 96 months.
5. Conclusions
Estimation of wind energy output for small-scale systems has been the subject of
this paper. The main aim has been to use the Weibull-representative wind data
instead of the measured data in time-series format for estimating the wind energy
output. The Weibull function parameters were calculated analytically on a monthly
basis, using the gamma function, from the measured data in time-series format. The
wind speed data in frequency distribution format have been generated based on the
Weibull distribution function, using the parameters identied earlier.
The monthly energy outputs were calculated for a wind turbine of 50 W nominal
power, using the Weibull-representative and measured data in time-series format.
Energy output comparison was used as the main test to determine the accuracy of
the Weibull-representative wind speed data. The energy outputs calculated using the
measured data in time-series format were used as the reference energy output.
Finally, the monthly energy outputs calculated using the Weibull-representative data
were compared to the reference energy outputs. A total of 96 months of data were
used from 5 different locations in the world. As the overall error of 2.79% shows, the
Weibull-representative data are very successful in representing the time-series data as
far as the locations analysed are concerned.
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Table 5
Yearly average errors in calculation of the wind energy output using the Weibull-representative data for
various locations calculated from Eq. (16)
Error (%)
Cardiff 1991 3.60
Cardiff 1994 2.72
Cardiff 1995 1.97
Cardiff 1996 2.25
Canberra 4.11
Davos 4.73
Athens 1.57
Ankara 1.35
Average 2.79
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