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Insight 1
Insight 1
www.scbeic.com
E-mail : eic@scb.co.th
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05
Houseview
Update
E-mail
AEC
SMEs ?
Executive summary
4-7
SMEs
8 - 10
11 -17
SMEs
18 - 25
SMEs
26 - 39
... SMEs
40 - 50
SMEs
global trend ?
51 - 55
SMEs ?
56 - 70
SMEs
71 - 73
AEC
SMEs ?
SMEs
SMEs
300
SMEs
(laborintensive industry)
(turnover rate)
(AEC)
SMEs
AEC
(direct
effect)
(indirect effect)
300
8%
100%
100%
3%
4%
SMEs
10-15
(skill mismatch)
SMEs
(labor
productivity)
SMEs
AEC SMEs
AEC AEC
SMEs
SMEs
AEC
SMEs
global trend
(border trade)
SMEs
SMEs
SMEs
(global trend)
SMEs
(social
network)
SMEs
emerging markets
(niche market)
...
SMEs
SMEs
SMEs CLMV
SMEs
SMEs
AEC
SMEs
Focus group
SMEs
(SCB Yong Entrepreneur Program YEP) 12
SCB EIC
1 SMEs
(business environment)
SMEs
300
SMEs SMEs
(labor-intensive industry)
SMEs
300
300
:
300
: %
Small
Medium
16.0
13.1 12.6
12.5
12.9
8.6
6.0 6.1
(turnover rate)
SMEs
SMEs SMEs
sector
: %
: %
Small
Medium
16.0
15.6
11.2
10.8
7.5
12.1
8.9
2.0
SMEs
(AEC) SMEs
AEC
SMEs
3
(non-tariff barriers)
(
)
SMEs
supply chain
SMEs SMEs
SMEs
SMEs
(craftsmanship) SMEs
:
:
700,000
Overall
650,000
600,000
CAGR
5%
550,000
500,000
450,000
400,000
350,000
300,000
250,000
200,000
SMEs
CAGR
4%
2005
2011
: SCB EIC
SMEs
global trend
10
300 SMEs
(direct effect) (indirect effect)
(cost pass-through) SMEs
(direct effect) 2%
-- (hospitality)
SCB EIC
30%
80%
10% hospitality
30% 40%
(direct effect)
4
(direct effect) 2
: %
5.0%
2.1%
5.2%
hospitality
4.0%
3.4%
11
100%
5
8%
= 100%
= 100%
: %
: %
: 7.6%
12
100%
(long-run cost pass-through) 25-35%
5
100% 2
1. (base case)
5 10% 50%
30%
2. (high pass-through case)
5 30% 70%
50% 20%
(systemic shock)
13
-hospitality
-
-
-
+
-
20%
20%
50%
20%
30%
10%
30%
30%
30%
30%
30%
30%
40%
20%
40%
40%
70%
40%
50%
30%
50%
50%
50%
50%
50%
50%
60%
40%
-
-
3G
2
50%
70%
40%
60%
30%
50%
20%
40%
10%
30%
: SCB EIC
14
100%
3%
100%
hospitality
pass-through 20%
23% 20%
hospitality
15
100%
: %
: 2.6%
: 2.6%
: %
: 3.2%
: 3.2%
(indirect effect)
8
(indirect
effect)effect)
(indirect
: % : %
16
100%
2 100% SCB EIC
Input-Output table 2005 (
) 2.3-2.4 3.3-3.4%
GDP 2005 (margin) 4%
hospitality
margin
(margin)
(margin)
100%
100%
:%
: %
17
3 SMEs
SMEs
SMEs (labor productivity)
10-15
2005 2011
10-15
10-15
10
10-15
2011
:
6
5
10-15
10-15
4
3
2
18
80+
75-79
70-74
65-69
60-64
55-59
50-54
45-49
40-44
35-39
30-34
25-29
20-24
15-19
10-14
5-9
0-4
11
2005-2011
2005-2011
17.1
210.0
-1.5
176.2
18.2
(1% )
(2% )
33.8
Real GDP 2005
4,900 2011 ( 2000) (2005-2011)
1.4% 2000-2005 3.8%
1.4%
2005-2011 12,000
2011 ( 2000)
10%
(middle-income trap)
19
12
: %CAGR
40,000
30,000
20,000
10,000
0
2005-2011
12%
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
-2%
-4%
50,000
1990-1995
2000-2005
60,000
1995-2000
( 2011)
: 2000
12,000 2011 ( 2000)
1,700 5,000
40% 46% 14%
4,900
middle-income trap
20
BOX: ?
SCB EIC
103,000
3 260,000
13
: , %CAGR
39
36
23
1.5%
25
14
2005
1.1%
15
15,000
20,000
12,000
9,000
2011
: SCB EIC
21
(skill mismatch)
World Bank
30%
AEC
14
Skill mismatch
()
()
::
300
. .
200
200
100
100
-100
-100
-200
-200
-300
: SCB EIC
22
300
-300
skill mismatch
1 1
3-7 . .
90%
SMEs
SMEs
hospitality
23
15
2010
: (nominal price 2010)
35,000
30,000
25,000
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
0
22,264 9,668
2,330
SMEs
SMEs
24
BOX: SMEs
300
300
SMEs SMEs
SMEs
(productivity) 300
outsource outsource
(value-added)
(white labeling)
quantity discount
(differentiation and uniqueness)
layout
3
25
4
SMEs
SMEs
300
(AEC)
SMEs SMEs
SMEs
SMEs 1 1-2
300
13% 1-2
SMEs SMEs
SMEs
9%
AEC
16
SMEs 1-2
1-2
1-2
: %
: %
14%
12%
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
13%
1-2
11%
9%
10%
7%
8% 9%
2%
: ()
1-2
: SCB EIC
26
SMEs 37 308
300
17 SMEs
SMEs
300
: %
: %
(unskilled)
62%
55%
(skilled)
50%
56%
: 12%
8%
6%
()
(%)
38%
45%
50%
44%
235
296
133
59
20%
16%
10%
10%
6%
4%
4%
0%
7%
13%
7%
6%
5%
14%
11%
10%
10%
15%
:
300 %
: SCB EIC
27
SMEs 17%
22% 14% 11%
SMEs
16%
27% 24%
18
SMEs
SMEs
SMEs
: % SMEs
: % SMEs
(%)
53% 47%
22%
41%
59%
20%
70%
14%
44% 56%
11%
17%
30%
28
(20-50%)
100%
0%
20%
:
: SCB EIC
40%
( 20%)
( 50%)
60%
80%
100%
19 SMEs
: %
30%
27%
25%
20%
21%
24%
16%
15%
10%
11%
10%
5%
0%
:
: SCB EIC
29
SMEs SMEs
SMEs SMEs
SMEs
SMEs 3 8%
3%
8.4%
20 SMEs
SMEs
SMEs
: % SMEs
SMEs
37%
50%
0%
61%
63%
100%
SMEs
39%
100%
49%
74%
26%
50%
= 20%
51%
0%
= 40%
:
: SCB EIC
30
21 SMEs
33
:: %% SMEs
SMEs
(%)
8.4%
8.2%
7.8%
7.2%
0%
1-5%
10%
40%
20%
30%
5-10%
50%
60%
10-20%
70%
20%
80%
90% 100%
: % 3
: SCB EIC
31
SMEs SMEs
35%
1% SMEs SMEs
SMEs
(Economies of Scale)
SMEs
SMEs
22 SMEs
SMEs
300
SMEs
300
: % SMEs
: % SMEs
28%
4%
1%
14%
35%
72%
20%
26%
: 300
: SCB EIC
32
SMEs SMEs
SMEs SMEs SMEs
SMEs SMEs
23 SMEs
SMEs SMEs
300
:
% SMEs
300
: % SMEs
100%
80%
17%
28%
32%
33%
60%
40%
67%
20%
0%
100%
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
68%
78%
83%
17%
21%
22%
Small
72%
79%
Medium
83%
Large
: 300
: SCB EIC
33
AEC
24 SMEs
AEC
AEC
: % SMEs
2%
41%
5%
52%
AEC
AEC
AEC
AEC
: % SMEs
: % SMEs
15%
23%
57%
32%
15%
85%
28%
32%
68%
45%
: (AEC)
AEC
AEC
: SCB EIC
34
AEC
25 SMEs
AEC
: % SMEs
12%
53%
22%
25%
11%
36%
39%
35%
39%
47%
52%
28%
: AEC
: SCB EIC
35
SMEs
26 AEC
AEC
AEC
: % SMEs
15%
15%
23%
13%
8%
26%
18%
46%
34%
21%
24%
17%
22%
16%
10%
36%
23%
26%
5%
10%
19%
18%
31%
26%
25%
14%
50%
56%
61%
54%
36%
: AEC
: SCB EIC
36
SMEs AEC
72% 57%
SMEs
SMEs
SMEs AEC
AEC
27 SMEs
AEC 2015
SMEs AEC
: % SMEs
43%
32%
57%
24%
20%
16%
8%
28%
72%
SMEs
28%
26%
21%
17%
7%
: AEC
: SCB EIC
37
AEC SMEs
SMEs SMEs
5%
SMEs 17% 3
SMEs
CLMV SMEs
SMEs
28
SMEs
SMEs SMEs
: % SMEs
SMEs
3
SMEs
95%
83%
5%
17%
20%
20%
17%
15%
14%
13%
36%
8%
6%
31%
27%
27%
24%
:
3
: SCB EIC
38
39
..
SMEs
1-2 4
80% (border trade)
20%YOY
3-5%
4 (CLM) 80%
border trade
4
70 30
29
*
*
::
1,007
833
2011 ()
: %
: %
2011 ()
1,147
% CAGR
(2009-2011)
21.6%
8.5%
100% = 899.8
7.8%
22.7%
12.3%
23.3%
76.7%
2009
77.3%
2010
78.4%
2011
12.1%
62.3%
*
: SCB EIC
40
17.5%
2 3
98%
-
30 4
-
-
-
-
: SCB EIC
41
CLM
5
CLM 2,400
2
50%
- 20,000
90%YOY
42
CLM
31
60%
, , ,
,
, ,
, ,
,
, , ,
, , ,
(96.0%) (1.5%)
, ,
: SCB EIC
- -
AEC
-
-
-
27%YOY
1 45%
(brand recognition)
60%
43
SMEs
-
- 3
(business
model)
-
- 2
30% 2012 - 2015
-
-
(
)
SGS ()
44
-
-
80%
500,000
L/C
(direct quote)
-
-
AEC 3
SMEs 3
6 3 47,499
3%
45
2
()
AEC
(MOU)
2011 3
(perishable goods)
46
32 6 3%
:
:
100,000
90,000
80,000
70,000
60,000
50,000
40,000
30,000
20,000
10,000
0
94,885
92,362
73,495
2009
3.2%
YOY
2010
2011
46,015
47,499
1H 2011
1H 2012
: SCB EIC
(special
economic zone)
3
SMEs
SMEs
(expat)
47
33
2,100
(sister cities) .
ACMECS
2
(export processing zone) (supporting industries)
6,000
100%
48
1,600 AEC /
/
: SCB EIC
34
10
..-..
()
(%YOY)
()
5,075.2
5.2
2,453.9
-28.1
2,531.3
20.7
1,945.9
18.3
2,500.1
56.1
1,960.9
32.9
2,375.7
8.0
2,232.9
21.7
2,310.6
43.7
2,053.7
38.5
2,073.8
-10.4
1,289.8
-5.3
(%YOY)
1,936.5
-0.6
1,534.2
13.8
1,767.4
60.5
1,080.0
27.3
1,716.1
1.7
1,681.3
49.3
10
1,658.3
-2.1
1,781.5
48.3
35,120.3
16.9
30,150.4
29.8
59,065.3
15.6
48,164.5
23.6
10
..-..
()
(%YOY)
()
(%YOY)
13,916.7
40.1
11,879.9
27.6
7,792.8
19.3
7,824.2
64.5
4,932.1
36.0
3,597.7
9.3
3,411.1
-14.8
2,901.3
64.1
3,029.1
12.4
2,830.4
43.9
2,518.6
60.8
1,448.2
-8.0
7
8
2,261.9
1,960.0
19.7
326.3
1,878.8
1,325.7
31.0
16.3
1,850.6
121.4
5,353.8
474.6
10
1,804.9
-20.1
908.7
-25.4
37,646.9
24.2
33,694.0
39.6
81,124.8
26.5
73,642.7
42.9
49
35
10
..-..
..-..
()
(%YOY)
()
(%YOY)
7,360.1
10.4
4,793.1
-6.7
3,631.3
51.1
2,595.0
16.7
3,312.6
39.3
3,333.9
64.0
3,232.6
47.0
3,190.8
53.5
2,926.2
33.7
936.3
-59.7
6
7
2,696.7
1,836.5
21.8
-5.0
1,919.6
1,294.8
14.1
2.8
1,719.3
78.8
865.7
-39.7
1,646.8
-9.4
1,286.2
34.9
10
1,521.4
19.1
1,218.7
21.1
30,715.7
14.6
24,184.8
18.4
60,599.3
19.2
45,618.9
12.5
10
..-..
()
(%YOY)
()
(%YOY)
207,324.4
45.7
98,811.9
-30.3
29,780.0
-21.1
13,853.9
-25.9
25,908.2
5.7
17,027.4
-3.9
12,387.1
38.0
8,557.7
16.1
8,104.1
6,118.0
-9.8
13.9
4,864.2
4,323.5
-15.1
7.6
6,069.5
5.5
3,123.9
-33.2
4,948.2
-30.4
4,203.4
19.7
3,992.7
-12.7
1,220.0
-58.3
3,710.0
-22.0
2,578.6
2.0
71,022.0
1.0
50,706.0
4.7
379,364.2
18.4
209,270.4
-18.7
9
10
50
6 global trend ?
SMEs
(globalization)
SMEs
lifestyle SMEs
business model
(social network)
SMEs
social network Facebook Twitter
digital media
SMEs
Facebook
Facebook 11 16 (
2012) digital lifestyle
SMEs
SMEs like SMEs Facebook like fan page
1 like like 6 !
51
) 70% 4-5
30% 37,240 (184,710
) SMEs
36
3 2015
:
2015F
37,240
CAGR
28%
CAGR
69%
2011
10,730
2010
6,360
: SCB EIC
(going green)
SMEs
eco-products SMEs eco-design
recycle
eco-shop SMEs
(recycle)
52
tableware
SMEs
(niche market)
niche marketing
lifestyle
SMEs
(demographic
change)
Emerging markets
SMEs
(China
Brand Association) (snack food)
3,000
20% SMEs
BRICS (
)
53
37
2
: %
: %
2.4
0.9
1.1
20
20-39
1.7
40-59
60
(aging society)
SMEs
elderly care business -
SMEs
54
(health-conscious consumers)
2007
1.4 2012 2.2
54% SMEs
SMEs
100%
Organic Thailand 2003
(USDA)
SMEs
fish
oil
SMEs 2-3
100% 5
global trends
SMEs
55
7 ?
SMEs
SMEs
CLMV SMEs
AEC
SMEs
SMEs
98% 85%
10
CLMV 30%
45%
28%
SMEs AEC 30,000
5,000
38
SMEs
99.7
97.3
99.9
97.0
95.7
99
84
59
97
85
83
88
37
32
58
39
N/A
76
SMEs*
(%)
SMEs(%CAGR 2000-2007)
28.5
44.7
3.3
21.3
N/A
-1.1
11.9
28.2
3.0
8.3
N/A
-1.7
: SCB EIC Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA),
(.), IMF, Department of Statistics Malaysia, General Statistics Office Of
Vietnam National Institute of Statistics of Cambodia
56
SMEs SMEs
SMEs 2007-2011
SMEs 6% 2%
2.6 SMEs
SMEs AEC
SMEs
SMEs CLMV
SMEs
SMEs
SMEs CLMV
CLMV
non-residential
residential
SMEs
2012 25-30%
1.5
80% 2012 3
-
-
57
39 CLMV
( 2011) ()
()
(USD/kWh)*
(USD/m3)**
(USD/)
(USD/container)
(USD/container)
69.5
28.8
242.3
87.8
6.2
14.3
48.3
5
29
4
6
8
45
9
44
7
93
9
85
N/A
90
0.08
0.5
254
625
750
0.07
0.44
297
450
435
0.06
0.36
167
644
660
0.05
0.3
96
580
670
0.07
0.6
75
1,880
2,035
0.21
0.4
61
732
872
0.06
1.05
65
N/A
N/A
* -
** m3 minimum charge
non-residential company 4.8 10 m3 0.6
m3
: SCB EIC CEIC, World Bank, ASEAN Centre for Energy ASEAN Secretariat
SMEs
SMEs
58
CLMV SMEs
26% 2000-2010
20% 2005-2010
CLMV SMEs
40
SMEs
)
() ()
()
(
: %CAGR*
()
()
: % CAGR*
: % CAGR*
14%
5%
14%
11%
11%
1%
22%
26%
26%
23%
11%
11%
5%
23%
22%
18%
18%
0%
1%
5%
5%
0%
3%
3%
* 2009-2011 2000-2010
: SCB EIC National Institute of Statistics Cambodia Ho Chi Minh City Statistical Office
59
SMEs
SMEs
partner
SMEs
SMEs CLMV
40-50% SMEs SMEs
(joint venture)
41 SMEs
SMEs
: % SMEs
16%
8%
4%
8%
8%
6%
40%
50%
13%
4%
18%
21%
22%
5%
6%
15%
26%
23%
46%
1%
2%
41%
1%
8%
: SCB EIC Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA),
(.), General Statistics Office Of Vietnam National Institute of Statistics
of Cambodia
60
CLMV SMEs
CLMV
18% 24% 2000-2011
1 2012 30%YOY
2012 100% 1.5
CLMV
CLMV 1 1,500
1 250
1
5,000
18% 39% 2000-2010
SMEs
CLMV
42
::
25
::
30%
()
%CAGR 2000-2011 ()
25%
24%
20
20%
18%
15
2,276
1,444
1,571
15%
10%
10
7%
5
4%
0
893
10%
5%
0%
248
:
*
:
SCB EIC CEIC
61
43 SMEs
: % (CAGR)
2000-2011
: %
: %
: % (CAGR 2000-2010)
19%
11%
18%
20%
17%
1
7
1 0.5
13
4
4
92
86
99
92
95
11%
6
7
87
1
2
4.7 4
6 13
0
3
95
94
94
SEs MEs SEs MEs SEs MEs SEs MEs SEs MEs
62
85
2012 85%
SMEs
30% SMEs
joint venture SMEs
1% 2000 8% 2010
44
SMEs
SMEs
:%: %
::%CAGR
(2000-2010)
%CAGR
(2000-2010)
( )
22% 22%
31%
8%
5%
6%
11%
3%
36%
2000
41%
22%
16%
18%
18%
15%
15%
8%
7%
13%
7%
4%
20%
2007
63
SMEs AEC
SMEs
CLMV Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA) Business Environment
and Enterprise Performance Survey World Bank SMEs
SMEs CLMV
SMEs
CLMV
64
SMEs CLMV
CLMV 10
SMEs
(subcontract)
4
(labor-intensive industry)
40%
2.0 8.5
4
(productivity) 4
4
65
4
45
4
: USD/
: USD/
4,816
8.4
2.0
1,083
1. 1
10
2.
Doing Business
(2012) 2 21 652
8 152
66
2
365 42
46
:
:
(21)
(8)
652
157
(x)
(4)
35
(4)
183
(x)
5 6.5%
67
BOX:
1 1
180
(1)
40%
(2)
30%
(3)
30%
1,000,000
400,000 300,000 300,000
15% 80%
47
1
:
519,200
400,000
180
424,000
620
95,200 180
1
:
1,000,000
1,149,200
1
:
300,000
30,000
330,000
: SCB EIC
2 169
64 180
68
1 180 400,000
95,200
4 4
800 2
10
2
4
69
BOX:
SMEs
(.) 2012-2013
AEC
48
SMEs
SMEs 100
2010
8
50
1 / 100
)
.
(unwind hedging)
money changer/ money transfer agent
(nonresident: NR)
/
NR (underlying)
500 NR
(direct loan) NR
: SCB EIC
70
8 SMEs
SMEs
SMEs
SMEs SMEs
SMEs
SMEs
SMEs
40%
SMEs SMEs
SMEs
SMEs
SMEs
SMEs
SMEs
(supplier) SMEs
SMEs
(labor productivity)
AEC
71
4D Dirty (
), Dangerous (), Difficult () Demeaning ()
()
SMEs
middle-income trap SMEs 75%
SMEs
AEC
SMEs business matching SMEs
(rehabilitation program)
72
12%
8%
AEC
CLMV
SMEs
AEC
SMEs
SMEs SMEs
partner
business model
73
.
Chief Economist
. 2553 Chief
Economist (SCB
EIC) .
.
(IMF),
ING, Booz, Allen, Hamilton
. (Kings Scholarship)
Harvard University
Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT)
. 20
Asia Society 2550
74
( )
Kellogg
School of Management, Northwestern University
10
7
()
University of
Texas at Arlington
) 2551
10
(
)
MBA
(AIT)
Investment Banking J.P.Morgan
2553
Portfolio
(Kings Scholarship)
Yale University
London School of Economics (LSE)
7
( )
.
. ()
Policy
Economics, University of Illinois, Urbana-Champaign World Bank
London School of Economics
Applied Economics and Management Cornell University
()
75
(TDRI)
()
()
University of California, Berkeley
(IDE-JATRO)
()
()
(EBA) Applied Economics
University of Michigan
:
Disclaimer : The information contained in this report has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable. However, neither we nor any of
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76
()
E-mail : eic@scb.co.th : +662 544 2953
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77
NOTES
NOTES