By Gp Capt (Dr.

) RM Saxena

Meso-scale Forecasting in India

INTRODUCTION-

MEANING & DEFINITION

PROBLEMS IN MESOSCALE FORECASTING EVOLUTION OF MESOSCALE FORECASTING IN INDIA OBSERVATION NETWORK NEEDED METHODS

INTEGRATED MODEL
CONCLUSION

CLASSIFICATION OF SCALES
S.NO NAME OF SCALE SPACE SCALE TIME SCALE

1. 2.
3. 4.

Climatological (Seasons) Synoptic Scale (Cyclones) Meso Scale (Tornado,Thunder -storm, Fog) Micro Scale (Smoke plumes)

10,000s km 1000s km 100s km 10s km

Few Months

Few Days

Few Hours

Few Minutes

PROBLEMS IN MESOSCALE FORECASTING

OBSERVATIONAL NETWORK IS SPACED AT 300 KM

& FREQUENCY OF OBSERVATIONS IS 3HR. WEATHER DEVELOPS IN LESS THAN 100 KM & WITHIN A HOUR. DEVASTATION POTENTIAL OF MESOSCALE SYSTEMS LIKE TORNADO, THUNDERSTORM, CLOUDBURST, GALE &TIDAL WAVES IS VERY HIGH. MORE MODERN OBSERVATIONAL PLATFORMS ARE NEEDED. INTEGRATED MODEL & A NODAL AGENCY TO COORDINATE AT NATIONAL LEVEL IS REQUIRED

TYPES OF MESOSCALE FORECASTING

TYPE OF FORECAST DURATION EXAMPLE

NOWCASTING

NEXT 2-3HR

FOG, MIST

VERY SHORT RANGE

3-9 HR

TORNADOES, THUNDERSTOMS

SHORT RANGE

9-24HR

HIGH WINDS,HEAVY RAIN

EVOLUTION OF MESOSCALE FORECASTING IN INDIA

YEAR METHOD 3 CM WEATHER RADAR 10 CM WEATHER RADAR SATELLITE PICTURES SCOPOGRAPH COASTAL RADAR NETWORK NWP MODELS WEATHER PHENOMENON LOCAL THUNDERSTORM AREAS OF PRECIPITATION CLOUD COVERAGE RUNWAY VISUAL RANGE CYCLONE TRACKING COMPUTER GENERATED FORECAST

1950s 1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s

Various methods are: LINEAR EXTRAPOLATION MESOSCALE CLIMATOLOGY CHECK LISTS DECISION TREES LOCAL AREA CHARTS OBJECTIVE TECHNIQUES NWP MODELS

THE THREE AREAS WHICH REQUIRE AUGMENTATION ARE:-

Upper air data

Radar data Satellite imageries Some useful websites are: www.imd.gov.in www.imd.ernet.in www.ncmrwf.gov.in www.grads.iges.org

OBSERVATION NETWORK SHOULD CONSISTS OF: DENSE CWOs DOPPLER RADARS WIND PROFILERS LIDARs SODARs AWS & DCP

MICROWAVE RADIOMETERS
HIGH RESOLUTION SATELLITE OBSERVATIONS AIRCRAFT COMMUNICATION ADDRESSING & RECORDING

SYSTEM(ACARS)

INTEGRATED MODEL
S.N.

FACILITY/SERVICE

RESOURCE AGENCY

1.
2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10.

RADARS
UPPER AIR OBSERVATIONS INSAT DATA HRPT DATA(NOAA) SODARS AIRCRAFT DATA AWS,DCPS SHIP DATA AEROSOL CONCENTRATION RAINFALLDATA

IMD,NATIONAL AIRPORT AUTHORITY

IMD,IAF,IN, & DRDO IMD IMD,SAC& NRSA IITM ,NPL IAF,NRSA & CIVIL AIRLINES IMD,DRDO & INDUSTRIES IN,NIO,SHIPPING INDUSTRY AIR POLLUTION CENTRES IMD,AGRICULTURE & IRRIGATION DEPT.

11.
12.

NWP MODEL
MESOSCALE MODELLING

IMD &NCMRWF
IIT,IMD IISC,& IITM

 AN INTEGRATED MODEL IS NEEDED WHICH WILL

CONCLUSIONS

DEVELOP:FREQUENY OF ANALYSIS: MONITORING DATA HALF HOURLY OR AS FREQUENTLY AS POSSIBLE. COMPOSITING: SUMMARISING FEATURES FROM ALL SOURCES IN ONE PRESENTATION. POST-NOWCAST ANALYSIS:TO ASSESS ACCURACY OF NOWCAST INTERMS OF OCCURRENCE/NONOCCURREENCES OF PREDICTED WEATHER ELEMENTS IT SHOULD BE FOLLOWED BY AUGMENTATION OF EXISTING OBSERVATION NETWORK. A NODAL AGENCY(IMD/NCMRWF) TO FORMULATE, COORDINATE & IMPLEMENT A COMPREHENSIVE PLAN OF MESOSCALE DATA ACQUISITION ASSIMILATION & ANALYSIS.