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SH 2013 q2 1 Icra Tyres
SH 2013 q2 1 Icra Tyres
Anjan Deb Ghosh +91 22 6179 6392 aghosh@icraindia.com Contacts: Subrata Ray +91 22 6179 6386 subrata@icraindia.com Pavethra Ponniah +91 44 4596 4314 pavethrap@icraindia.com K Srikumar +91 44 4596 4318 ksrikumar@icraindia.com Subrat Dwibedi +91 22 6179 6382 subrat.dwibedi@icraindia.com A M Pradeep +91 44 4596 4312 arockia.pradeep@icraindia.com
Overview
Tyre demand to revive by ~8-10% supported by the replacement tyre growth engine
The OEM segment in the domestic tyre industry reported around ~2% volume growth in aggregate during 2012-13, as volume declines in Truck and Bus (T&B) segment (-23%) and the tractor segment (-3%) was offset by growth in LCV (~11%), relatively modest growth in high volume segment like passenger vehicles (PV, ~4%) and flat Motorcycle volumes. On the other hand, the trends in the replacement segment were quite different, with healthy volume growth in T&B segment and weak volumes in two-wheeler (2W) segment. Overall the Indian Tyre Industry domestic demand is estimated to have posted flat to marginal volume de-growth (0% to -1%) during 2012-13. However in terms of tonnage the industry growth was supported by strong replacement demand in high tonnage contributing segments like T&B and PV leading to an estimated growth of ~ 4.5-5% during 2012-13. This, coupled with marginal improvement in realisations has resulted in ~8-9% growth in revenues for the industry. During 2013-14, ICRA expects the OEM tyre demand (volumes) to grow by a muted ~2% while the replacement demand (volumes) is expected to be much stronger at 15% supported by growth in high volume segments like 2W. However tonnage growth during 2013-14 is expected at ~5-6% only, driven by relatively slower growth in T&B replacements.
Benign rubber prices supported industry wide margin expansion of over 200 bps during 2012-13. However flat margins expected for 2013-14 supported by a strong H1; margins may moderate in H2 with volatility in crude and NR. Strong high margin replacement tyre demand a positive
Rubber prices, after having peaked at Rs. 240 per kg in April 2011, trended down to Rs. 160-170 kg during 2012-13. With bulk of the 2012-13 revenues coming from replacement volumes (segment enjoying relatively high profitability), domestic tyre manufacturers were able to hold on to prices for a large part of the year, leading to an industry wide margin expansion of over 200 bps during 2012-13. ICRA expects the industry to benefit from lower priced raw material contracted during H1, 2013-14 to support margins. Coupled with healthy replacement demand volumes we expect industry wide margins to hold at 2012-13 levels, despite any firming in NR and crude prices during H2, 2013-14. Slowing pace of debt funded capacity additions and relatively lower depreciation are also expected to support net margins.
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Pace of capacity additions expected to continues; albeit at a moderately lower level on the back of recent large capacity additions
Over the last few fiscals, the domestic tyre industry has been gearing up for the imminent structural change in the T&B segment with cross ply tyres giving way to the technically superior radial tyres. Between March 2009 and March 2012, the industry is estimated to have added 62.4 million tyres capacity, reflecting a CAGR of 16%, in order to bridge the demand gap. Although the current subdued demand outlook would warrant some moderation in capacity addition, tyre manufacturers are unlikely to defer capex materially at this stage of their expansion. Overall, over the last four years, domestic tyre majors have incurred over Rs. 120 billion capex, resulting in increased interest and depreciation burden. The industry-wide leverage, which has been on an uptrend over last several years, however moderated (from 1.4x to 1.2x) during 2012-13, supported by healthy cash accruals. Keeping in mind the eventual permeation of radial tyres, tyre manufacturers (both domestic and international) have committed substantial amount of investments (Rs. 51.5 billion) between CY13 and CY15 towards addition of ~13.2 million tyres, primarily in the radial space.
Apollo-Cooper acquisition; risky bet that could reap rich dividends in the long run
On June 12, 2013, Apollo Tyres Limited announced its proposed acquisition of USA based Cooper Tire & Rubber Company, in an all cash deal totalling USD 2.5 billion (~Rs. 14,500 15,000 crore). The acquisition, once concluded, will make Apollo Group the 7th largest tyre manufacturer globally. While this large sized acquisition is based on leverage and consequently strains the balance sheet, in the longer term there could be potential for significant gains from potential synergy between the two entities.
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VII. Brief coverage on the following tyre majors a) Apollo Tyres Limited; includes a separate commentary on Apollo's acquisition of Cooper Tire
b) Balkrishna Industries Limited c) Ceat Limited d) Elgi Rubber Company Limited e) Goodyear India Limited f) JK Tyre and Industries Limited g) MRF Limited h) TVS Srichakra Limited
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