Nhiovg ngudi dich + - NGUYEN VAN NGOC, Cir nhan Kinh 18 hoc, dich céc chuang: 4,2.3, 5, °7, 16 va oiai thich thuat ng NGUYEN VAN CONG, PTS. Kinh 18, dich cde chung : 6,7, 8, 15 HOANG VAN HOA, PTS. Kinh 18, ich cde chung : 9, 10, 11 HOANG YEN, PTS, Kinh 18, dich cc chang : 12, 13, 14, 16. TRAN DINH TOAN, Thac sTKinh té phat trign, dich chuong 4. Ngueihigu dinh NouyEN VAN Neoc Dich te nguyén bin = N. GREGORY MANKIW Harvard University MACROECONOMICS Second ediion WORTH PUBLISHER * New York 3.235 ERS 00-01-08 LOI NOI DAU Hién nay. ngay cang c6 nhiéu nguai mong muén hoc tép va nghién ‘cuu kinh té vi muc dich van cung vao cOng tac phan tich, hoach dinh chinh séich kinh 16 va hoat dong kinh doanh. Trén th) truting sach cle chung ta da xuat hién nhiéu cudn sch nu kinh t& hoc, kinh té vi m6, kinh t& vi md, v.v... Tuy nhién, 36 luang tén sach, tac gid van con qué it i so vai chiing Jogi phong pha va da dang 6 céc nudc phucng Tay. Hon nniza, khong phdi tét cd cc cuén sch hién dang luu hénh déu dép ing duoc yéu céu cila sinh vién, can b6 nghién ctu va nhdng ngubi lam cong téc thy tién, néu xét vé phuong dién dich thud, phuang phap irinh bay, keét cau, néi dung v.v. Cudn sch ma chiing {67 gidi thiéu vai ban doc c6 tua a8 “Kinh 16 vi mo" I m6t trong ahiing cuén giéo khoa ndi tiéng nhat vé kinh t& vi ms. NO da nhén cuge gidi thudng trao cho cuén kinh té vi mé hay nhét. Tac gid cuén sacn nay I Gregory Mankiw, gido su truting dai hoc Ha-vot. Ong 1 mot trong nhing nha kinh t& vi m6 tr8, dai dign xudt sde cho trying phai Keynes mdi. Cuén sich duge gido su ciia 350 trang dai hoc 4 27 nue ding fam sach giéo khoa vé kinh t& vi m6. Cho dén nay, nd a duge dich ra 6 thir tiéng (Ove, ¥, Nhét Ban, BS Bao Nha, Tay Ban Nha va Nga). ‘Ngay tir lén xust ban déu tién, cuBn sich 8 duac dng ééo ban doc, ‘ae biBt sinh vién cdc chuyén nganh kink t6 va quén tri kinh doanh, nhiét {it hoan nghénh. Cuén sich dupe dénh gid cao tnudc hét vi nb chi ra mét pphuong phap ligp cn mai trong kink té vi m6. Cac cudn giéo Khea truyén thing VB kinh t& vi m6 thutng tép trung trinh bay ly thuyélt v8 cae bién dong kinh t6 ngan hn, vi diéu nay tao ra co sd Iy thuyét dB hiéu duoc ‘mus tidu, c6ng cu, co ché, tac d6ng cila chinh séch tai chinh va tin 16 Tuy nhién, phutong php tiép cén nay khéng gidp cho sinh vién higu duoc toaa dién énh huréng cia nhiéu chin séch khée nhau, nhu tac dOng cla ching (i tang trang kinh 16, 1) 16 that nghiép tr nhién, 1am phat kinhpién va ng chinh phi. 86 gidi quyét mau thudn trén, tac gi da tim cach vat duoc sit hai hoa gia cac chi d& ngén hen va dai han trong kinh 16 vimé. Mot uu diém quan trong khac cla cutn sch fa, trong khi thita nhén vai tr ndi cia nhing ¥ tuBng, phuong phap tidp cén ma Keynes va tru@ing phai Keynes m3i si? dung, nd da thanh céng trong vige kau nd, he thong hnoa nhidu déng gop quy bau cia céc nha kinh 16 c6 didn, tn o6 din va 6 din mei L6i vn trong sang, chat ch, cd dong va khuc triét cdia tac gid cong 14 mol uy diém eda cusn sach. Tuy nhién, du nay lai gay khong Mt Kho than cho cong tac bién dich. 08 dm bao chat lugng ban dich 8 mic cao rindt, ching ti d8 tép hop duge mt d6i ngu bién dich cb tinh dO ngoai ngit va chuyén mén. Tat cd dich gid déu 1a cin b6 giang day co kinh nghiém cilia BG mén Kinh t& vi md, truéng Bai hoc Kinh té Quéc dan Ha Néi, nhiéu nguéi dé dugc di hoc tap va nghién cuu d Anh va My. Sau khi hhoan thann ban dich, chung 161 da t6 chic thio lun ting chuong va sta hoa nhirg diém chura chinh xac. Tuy nhién, vi nhiéu ly do, chéc chén ‘ban dich cia chung (6i cén nhiéu thiéu sot, rt mong duge ban doc gop va bé sung. Theo chung ti, cuBn sich nay c6 thé ding lam tai ligu tham khéo uy bau cho giéng vién va sinh vién kinh {8 6 ca truting dai hoc, of 6 be dai hee vé sau dai hoc. Ban doc d8 hoc qua mot khoa co ban vé kinh 18 vi mé cb thé dé dang hiéu dugc ndi dung cuén sach. Nhung ban doc in déu tian lam quen voi mén kinh (6 vi m6 s6 gép kho khén nhiéu hon trong vide Mah h6i cac Wy thuyét, mé hinh trinh bay trong cuén sich. Tuy inhign, I rinh bay dudi dang bai gidng, vila cn ké. 16 gich, via co nhiéw tinh hudng, vi dy minh hoa cu thé, chac chan sé giam nhe khé khan cla cae ban Gido sw VO BINH BACH myc Luc Phan I MG DAU (Chuung 1 - Khoa Kini (é vi mo 1.1. Tai sao phi nghin eu mon kinh A vi mo? 1.2. Cie nh kinh tar duy shu thé no? 1.3, Noi dung eta eusn ste Chuong 2 - $6 tieu kind té vi mo, 2.1. Phin dn gid tr a host dg kinh 1: Téng si phim trong nude 2.2. Phin én gid sinh boat: Chis gi tiga ding 2.3. Phin doh tinh tng that nghigh: TY Te that nghigp 2.4, Kel Iwan: Ti ede chi gu thdng ke kinh dn mo hin kind Ws Phan Il NEN KINH TE TRONG DAI HAN Chuong 3 - Thu nap quée dan: Sin xudi, phan phd va phan bé 3.1. Sin xust hing héa va dich vu 3.2. Phan phi thu nkap quoe din cho efe han 6 sin xuat 3.3, Nhu edu v2 hing ha vi eh vu 3.4, Trang thsi can bing va i suit 3.5. Ket loan . Chuong 4 - Tang teudng kinb 1 4.1. Tleh Igy te bin 4.2, Mite wy bin cong thsi vang 43. Sir gia Ging din 6 4.4. Tiga bo cing nghé 4.5. Tietkigm, ng oong vt chin il kind CE Trang 10 10 4 2 4 39 4“ 46 30 sh 33 “3s 8 80 88 a9 100 107 Mw us4.6. Ket lugn : Vaux ra ngodi pham vi me hinh Solow Phy lye: Céich tinh guide ting trum kink 1 Chiuomg 5 - That nghiep 5.1. Mave, tin dupe vige Iam vi t He that ngigp ty nhien 5.2 Stn kigin vige im v8 Unit nghigp tam thoi 53. Tinh cing nhse cia tea luong the 1S va tit nghigp cha vite 544. Cle dang tht nghitp 5. Ket lug Chirong 6 - Tién (¢ va lam phat 64. Tea Bgl? 6.2. Lf thuyét 8 luong ttn 16 6.3. Tae die tft: nguon thu te vige int 464, Lam phst ya Ii sus 6.5. Lai su danh neha vi nhu chu v8 tien Ue 6.6. Nhitog 16 tht XX boi ea Iam phat 6.7. KSt Ivan: Sy phan doi e6 din Phy Iye : Anh huimg'ea cung ting ttn 1 Hig ta ‘V8 tong lai do voi me gi. (Chuang 7 - Nén kinb 1 mi 7.1. Leng voi vA Ring héa que 7.2, TiS kim va du ws trong mén ki 6 ahd v8 md eta 73.75 gid hoi dosi i 7.4. Nube MY véi tu eéch nba kinh 16 Ion vi mi cta Pha tue : Non kin 1 Un va mi ea Phin TIT NEN KINH TE TRONG NGAN HAN Chung 8 - Gi6i thieu nhung bién dong kinh té 8.1, Syke ahau gida ngin han va dai haw 8.2. Téng eau 3. Téag cung 8.4. Chinh sch én din kink ws 8.5. Kei uaa Trang 120 126 132 133 135 be Ist 135 156 162 169 m 175 180 186 190 193 195 198 221 ns 2s 236 27 240 243 249 255 Trang Cuong 9 Téag cbt at 9.1 Th tong ng av dng 1S 260 9.2 Th ting tn 8 tng LM 9.3, Ketan: Trang hi cn Bing gf Ban x Chuong 1¢ - Téng cau IT 283 10149 in ng Kn Big hn 1S - LM 2 102 Mo bin IS-LM vl sh yw ag au 21 103, Dy sy os 295 104 Kenta 302 Chaong 11 -Téng cung 306 1.1, Bom st ag cng 07 1.2. Lam pit th neigp¥8 ng Pils x20 113. Ge a ng ht in eb 8: Kin 1 oe Keynes mol 31 11. Kat aan 37 Chong 12 - Cue tran tan vé chin sch kin t€ vi mo xi 121 Chi sh ei dg ay ng? 32 | 122 Chih sidh 60 doe tye ign theo Gy te hy hy neh? 39) 123, Kean: ach dah ei ach log th gi it dah 39 Phy ue : Tinh bs abst va su din 46; gida lam phét va thal nghigp 362 Chuang 13 Nén kinh t€ mé trong ngin han 365 13.1, Mo sink Mundell-Fleming 365 12.2, Non kinh if nh vA md eit tong dit kign gid Noi doi thé nb 369 13.3. Nem kin nko vat mi etn trong du kign 1} gid hoi dosi eS dah 373 13.4. Non thd i hay 6 dinh 4 gis Si dos? 380 1,5. Mo hinh Mundell-Fleming vi mie gi thay 46 136. Kat an 385 Phy ue + Mo bin agin hea v8 nbn kin tn v8 mo ita 39 (Chuong 14 - Ly thuyét chu kj vé kinh doanb thye té 395 14.1, Nem xét a i kinh w treng didu kign gis 396 4 14.2. Mo bi cha Ky Kinb down tge 18 a81.43, Cube tran lug xung quanh I thot v® chu kj kiah doanh thu ts 134 Ket loan Phin IV BAN THEM VE NHUNG CO SOKINH TE VI MO NAM SAU KINH TE VI MO huang 15 - Tieu dang IS.L EM Keynes vit him tt dang 15.2, Lisher#) v8 sy Tua chon gids ee tht ky 15.3, FModiglani 9 gid thuyet vong di 15.4, Mriedman vis gi thuyet thu nap ihuing xuyen 155. Ket tut hhuong 16 - Ban ve vin dé ng chinh phi 16.1, Quan digm tray thing v8 ng chinh phi 16-2, Quan dién es Ri-edc-lo v8 ng chinh phi 163. C6 tin tadn éuye chinh xe tham hyt ngan sich khong ? 164. Ket wan fhucng 17 - Diu te 17. Daw ws 66 dinh vo kinh dean 172, Dau tw vio nh 173, Dau tw vio hang ton kho 174, Ket Wan hhuung 18 - Cong va clu vé 18.1, Cung dng tion 18 18.2, Nhu etuve ttn 18.3, D6i mai hi chin va sy gin tang ca ban te 184. Ket Ioan hich thuat mgt Trang 408 410 413 44 as aig a1 436 4a 4s 447 49 458 462 465 466 a7 481 485 439 489 498 505 306 510 PHAN I MO DAU Phén | cia cudh séch nay giéi thiGu voi ban doc b6 mén kinh 6 vi md. Chuong 1 gidi 46p vain dé tai sao kinh t8 vi md Iai 18 mot bG mon koa hge hap dan va quan trong; né giai thich nhi'ng céng cy dye c&e nha kinh t@ van dung dé phan tich nn kinh t6' va tém t&t noi dung ca cugn sch nay. Chung 2 trinh bay nhing dang s6 ligu duge cdc nha kinh t8 va hoach dinh chinh sch sif dung 48 nghién ctu nén kinh 18.CHUONG 1 KHOA KINH TE Vi MO Khoa hoe ehiing qua ci ti su chat toe ming uc tating thucng ni A.Anh-xtanh 1.1. Tai sao phai nghién cutu kinh té vi mo? Tai sao thu hap hign nay Iai exw haan mite nim 1950 vir ta 10 nam 1950, né Iai eao hm mie many 1900? Tai sao img mute o 4 Fe lam phit eao, tong khi te uc Hie duy tf duge gi ea Gn dinh? Nesyen nkan no din d&n tinh trang suy thos {ink din «tie nhiing thsi ky thu niip giim va that nerigp tang = vi nha meee {fs va dung nhing ehiah sich ndo d8 giam bt in suit v3 nh chat nghicm trong etn cchiing? Kinh té vi mo - bo man khow inh t6 vai tr edeh mot tng. {né tim eich gid dip whing vin de nay v? nhieu vin dé tien quan DC doi. Nhumg ching ta s8 nhdim khi ket lun Ring nitn kinh t6 o6 kha nang thoa min shu clu gip doi, vi s6 lugng cia moi mac hing duge sin xu ra vin nhu eG. Cae nha kinh t€ goi gi tr hing héa va dich va tink bing gi hign hinb I GDP danh nghia teu tt hom dé phn Sink phic toi Kinb t€ phat vi dich vu cia nn kinh t¢ va khong bj Anh hung b6i nhiing thay d6i cia gis'ed, Dé dat duye muc tieu ny, ese nh kink t& sic dung GDP thre #2: N6 duos dinh nghia {rj hing ha va dich vu tinh thee gid e6 dink. Khi tinh GDP thye 16, nguii ta phi vi du nim 1987. Sau d6, nguii ta sir dung. gid nam 1987 dé ing hin va dich vu khie nhaa va edng chung Isi. Trong vi du ve nn cia ching ta, GDP thye « eta nam: 1994 Ia x Heong.erm| 1904 inh’ ding sin lvgng hing hia ai hon mot nam e: ddinh i inh te iso tans) [6 yee [Hg mgt) Am 1995 Bi Tung tw, GDP tye t€ cia c= [840 « tans) (oem, tango) opr iwc’ = (Spar x gs") + (Ear «Ses i i cam kings, GDP dg bi dog tn iy sang nn Be chido stay i ci, Vy, GDP th pin sin mg cn Kh ih 31bing dong do la trong nam co s6 (trong truiing hop nay la nim 1987). Xét cho cing, hd ning cia x4 hoi trong vige dip ting nhu cau cho ede thanh vicn cia né phu thude vio luong hing héa vA dich vu duce sin xuit ra, va GDP thyc t€ 18 chi tigu t6t hon GDP danh nghia trong vi¢e phiin Anh phic Ioi kinh t. Chi sé digu chinh GOP ‘Tu GDP danh nghia va thue t, ching ta e@ thé tinh duge chi tieu thong Ke thit 3: chi sO dieu chinh GDP. Chi s6 digu chink GDP, con duge goi Ii chi s6 digu chinh gid ‘ngim dinh cia GDP, duge dinh nghia 1 7 is = GDP danhnghia Chi s6aitu chin Gop = SOF Canhnt Ni vay, ci s0' diéu chink GDP ta 4¥ 1g gita GDP danh nghia va GDP tue 1 ‘Dé hida 19 hon GDP danh ngbia, GDP thye tf vi chi s6 digu chinh GDP, ching te hay tr Iai xem xét nn kin té chi si xust mot oa hang ha 14 binh my. Vio bit ky nim io, GDP dank nghia cing bing t6ng s6 ttn chi ra dé mua bénh my trong mim 445, GDP thue # chin bing s6 6 bin my duge sin xual trong nim d6 nha véi gis teinh my eta nam co si nio di. Chi s0 dit chiah GDP 1 gis txinh my nam dé so vei si inh my nam e9 88. ‘Song ofc nitn kinh t¢ hien nay sin xuat nhieu loai hing héa. GDP danh ngbva, GDP thue t€ va chi s5 dieu chinh GDP téng hop nhieu gid cd va lugng hang khic nhau. Hay xem xét nda kinh té sin xusitt4o va cam. Neu ky hieu P [a gid mot loai hing, Q 1 luo hing va chi s6 ma "87" him ¥ nam 1987 duye coi fa nam eo s6, thi chi $6 ditu chinh GDP duge tinh bing céng thie Chi s6 dieu chink GDP = Cue X Qued + Pea x Qe) (PE x Qed + PEn X Qe) ‘Tit s6 cia cong thie nly {a GDP danh nghie va mau s6 Ia GDP thye ts. Ci GDP dan nghia va thyc t du o6 thé duve coi 18 it cba mgt gi6 hing hda; trong trum, hap niy, 6 hing ha bao gim luong tio va eam hign duge sin xudt ra, Chi s6 ditu chinh GDP cho phép ching ta tich GDP dan ng thinh 2 phn: phdn phi da luong bang va phn pin inh gid, Tae la GDP éanh neh GDP thye t x Chi s6 ditu chink GDP GDP danh nghia phn dh gid ri béng 1ién eva sin emg ma nén kinh t€ 130 va GDP the :é phan dnh Khoi hang sin phi «nie sin lug duce dlink gi theo sid 6 inh (cia nam ca sé). Chi sé digu chink GDP pin dnh gi cia me don vi sin haong igh hink so véi gid cia nd wrong ndm ee 36: 32 AG Cac thanh té cla chi tieu Clie nha kinh t va hoach dinh chinh sich khong chi quar ttm 16. ng sén Iugng hang hoa va dich vy eda nen kink tS, ma edn quan tim dein vain de phan phi sin Iugng niy cho nhing mue dich sis dung kiée nhau. Tai khosin quée din phan chia GDP thinh bon thin (6 lon: * Tie dang (C) Daw ww) * Mua hang eda ehinh pid (G) Xuat Khu rng (NX) Bai vay, nou ky higu GDP 1a Y, ehidng ta e6: Y=C+1+G+NX GP ti tdng cia tidu ding, daw ty, mua hing cia chinh phi va xustkhiu rong. Méi do la GDP duye xép vin mot trong bd thinh 16 tren, Phuong inh my 1 mgt ding nh thie ~ ngs 96 ludn luda ding do eh din nghia ec bign 6. N6 age oi I ong nh thie ea 4% Rod che mkdp qude dn ‘Tieu ding bao gom hing héa va dich vw ma efe bO gia Sinh mua. N6 dage chia thanb ba'bo phan chi yéu: hing mau hong, hing au ben va dich vu. Hang mau bng 18 hang ebi ton tai trong thd gian npn nhu thye phim va quin do. Hang lau Ben TA ‘ning a ta trong thd gian di nhu 9, t vi. Dich vu bao gm céc cing vie phuc vw ‘cho ngudi tigu ding do ei e8 nan vA doan nghi¢p thge ign nhu eft te, khém benb, ‘Dau tu bao Om cic hing ha duye mua dé ding trong twong lai. Dau ty eding duge chia thinh ba nhom nh: dtu ts e8 dinh vao kinh doanh, dau ts 6 dinh vio nha 6 va au ‘urvio hang fon kho. Dau tw e6 dinh vio kinh doanh fi vige mua sim nk may va thist bj ‘mdi cla doanh nghigp. Dau tued djnh vio nha dla vige mua nha moi cia ho gia din vA rnguii cho thue nha, Diu tw vio hing fn kho 18 mde tang Gn kho hing héa cia doanh nghigp (néu hing ta kho gid xudng, dau tw vio hing tn kho mang dy Am). Mua hang ciia chinh phit 18 nhing hing hoa va dieh vu ma chinh phi Lién banig, chinh quyén ede bang va dia ghuong mua, Thanh 15 ndy bao gdm thiet bj quin sy, dudng usc 1 va dich ve ma vien che cia chinh phi: cung cdip. N6 khong bao gom cfc khodn chuyéin giao thy nbp cho ef rhin, vi du ttn bio hiém va trg cap xi hoi. Vi nhirug Khon tie nay ebi bigu tht su tii phin b6 thu nhap hign e6 va khong duge thye hign trong qué ‘inh trap dai hang hda va Uich vu, nén ching khong pha fa bo phan cia GDP. ‘Thigh 10 eu elng, xuatkhdu ring, tinh dén quan hg buon bin vi ee nude Khe. Xuai ku rong fi ghd ti Wing héa va dich vu duye xuat kh sang ale nue khde tet i gis uy hang hia va dich vy ma agudi nue ngodi cung edip cho chung ta, NO biéu thi 3 KTyM 33hin chi tigu rong ei nue ngoai dé mua hing hoa va dich vu eta ching ta vi kam D tang thu nbap cia ede aha sin xual trong nuvi PHAN BOC THEM Di tw la gi? Khai nigm dau tr doi khi gay ra sw Hin lon doi vi nbn ngudi mi tip sie wi ‘mon kinh t€ vi mo. Su Kin Ion niy sinh vi cai e6 vé fa dw tr eda ea nhdn Lar khong Pha’ daw tw cia nn kinh 16 vi te exch moe tine she: id sir ching ta quan sis thy bai sw kign sa day: © Ong Smith mua sagt ngoi nha say dimg 100 nam wud day dai la Victoria, * BA Jones xay dung mot ngoi nh’ him dai moi toanh, Teng dau tw 8 day Fi bao nhies:? MOL ngOi nh’, hi ngoi nha hay Khong ed ngoi ha nao ei? Khi quan sit hai giao dich nity. ede nha kinh ( vi md chi tink ngoi nh cia ba Jones vio du tu, Giao dich eia ong Smith khong tao ra FeO; nh mai eho nga kink te: 16 cai tdi phan pho ngOi aha hign es. Vige mua nh cia ‘ap Smith fa daw tu doi v6 ng Smith, nhung la 1 sy edt gidm cia tw eta aguas bin ngoi na. Nguye Iai, ba Jones 43 bi sung them mot ngoi nh mi cho nin Kinh t6, ngo: nhd nav cia ba dage coi 1h «fa We ‘Tuong ty eh vay, ehiing ta hay xem xét hai sw igh sau * Merrill mua ciia Lynch 5 trigu do ta e6 phigu IBM tren thi trating ching khodin Lynch Niu Ose. * General Motor bin 10 trigu do ta €6 phic eho cong ching va sir dung s ttn 46 4 xy dumg mot nha miy 6 10 mi 6 day, dau tr 1a 10 trigu do la, Trong giao ich thit nhat, Merrill duu we vito od phisw IBM, con Lynch gidin dau tr, khong c6 su dy tw ni trong nn kinh ted, Newoe xi, General Motor sis dung mot phir sin Iugmg hang héa va dich vu eéa nen kinh te dé b6 sung vao khoi lug tw bin cba minh; boi vay nhit my méi cia n a aw te Cuy téc chung 1a nhimg hanh vi ma eti ti phan phi thi sin hign e6 gia ede ec nnhan hong due coj a di tr d6i v6. itm kinb te, Kis niém daw tw trong kinh t€ v1 ‘mo gin v6i vige tao ra ty bin mdi eS 34 NGHIEN CUU TINH HUONG 2-1. GDP va cde thin t6 cia né ‘Vio nim 1992, GDP cia My t6ng cong Ia 6 nghin tj. Con s6 nay hin dein mie bit ner khong thé toring tug nd. Ching tae6 thé lam eho né a8 higu hon beng céch chia cho s6 din efia MF vio nim 1992 la 255 trigu nguii. Bang eich nay, ching ta ob duye GDP dw ngubi - hay mite chi ticu bink quan cia mot nguel MF. Con s6 ray [23,298 9 In vio nam 1982, Ching ta sit dung chi tigu GDP niy nhw the no? Bing 2-1 cho thy hai phitn ba trong 96 46, hay 16.036 do la/dau ng, duce chi cho titu ding. Diu tu 1a 3.016 do liu ngudi, Mua hang cia ehinh phi I 4.365 do la/daw nguai, trong a6 6 1.236 do la chi cho qude phdng ea Chinh phi Lien bang. Bing 2-1. GDP va ede thank t6 eda ehi tidus 1992 eee oe Téng Béu nguidi (ty 46 tay (ata) ‘Tong sin phiim trong aude (GDP) 5.950,7 23.298 Tiéu ding 4.095,9 16.036 Hang maw hong 1.2908 5.054 Mang tau ben 480.4 L881 Dich va 2.3247 9.102 Bau wu 770.4 3.016 ‘Diu tur e6 dinh vio my méc, thigt bi 548.3. 2.4147 aw ur e6 dink v20 ahi 217,7 852 au tw ton kho 44 7 ‘Mua hang ciia chirh phii Lig 4.365 Lign bang 4492 L759 Quse phdng 315,8 1236 Ci fink vue kh 13,4 552 Bang va dia phuong 65,8 2.607 Xadt khdis rong = 304 19 Xuiit khidw 636,3 2.451 Nhap khiw 666.7 2.610 Newin: Rs Thay ng Ms 4T sue 35‘Mot cé nhin binh quan mua 2.610 do ta hing héa nhap kh tir nue ngodi va sin ‘ud 2.451 d6 Ia hing xudt khdu sang cic nude khse. Nhw vay, xust khiu rong mang dau am. Vi tku duge it tién hom tir vige bin hang cho ngudi nut ngodi se v6i 36 tien chi ra dé mua hang héa nude ngoai, cho nén ching ta phi thanh ton phiin chenh lech bing céc khoiin vay ng ngudi nude ngodi (hose bin mot $6 tii sin cia ching ta di). ‘Vio nam 1992, mot ngudi My binh quan vay cia nuse ngoai 119 do la GDP va GNP ‘Téng san phim trong nude phan dnb tng thu nhap ciia moi agudi trong mot nn kin t€. Nhung néi m9t céch cu thé, khéi ni¢m "moi ngudi" bao giom nhting ai? C6 tinh nhing ngudi My Lim vige 6 nude ngodi va ngw nude ngoti lam viee tren dat Mj khong? Dé tei loi ning cau hoi ay, ching ta hay phan biet tng san phiim trong nude Wi chi tieu thing ke gin chat voi né Fa tdag sin phim quo dan, * Téng sain phim trong nude (GDP) 18 téng thu nhap kigin duce trong mucic. NO bao gdm ci thu nhap ma ngudi awe ngodi kiém duye trong mnie, nhung khong bao gdm thu chap ma ngudi dan trong nue kiém duge & nude ngodi * Téng sda phdm qué dan (GNP) fa t6ng thu nhap md ngia cin mot nude (ghia 1a cong dan cia mot nude) kiém duve. Né bao gm cd thu nh§p ma ngudi din mot nude kkigm duge & nude ngodi, nung khong bao gm thu nhip ngudsi nue ngoai kiém duve G trong nvée. Hai chi tieu v8 thu nhap nay khe nhau, vi mt ci nhan e6 thé kgm duve thu ahap & mot nuse, nung Iai fd edng dan ei muse khie. ‘Dé higu duve sy khie nhau gia GDP 1a GNP, ching ta hiy new ra mot sé vi du Gia sir moe cong dan Me-hi-cd sang Mj lao dong trong mét thoi gin. Thu kiem duge 6 My {a bo phn GDP cia My vi khoén thu nhap nay kigi duye & nue MJ. ‘Nhung khoin thu nhgp nay khong phi 14 b0 phn GNP cia Mj, vi nguvi cong din ‘khong mang quée tich My. Twung:ty, n¢u cong dan Mj latn vige Mé-hi-co, thu nhap cca anh ta 18 bp phn GNP cia My, nhung Khong phai li bo phan GDP cia M5. ‘Trong da sO truimg hop, ngudi ta khong cin phan biet git GDP vi GNP. Vi haw het dan cu kiém phdn lon thu nhap cia ho & nude minh nen GDP vi GNP khong khic ‘shaw nbige Lim. True day, cdc nhit hoach dink chinh sich My sit dung GNP Lam ui ‘ieu chi yéu dé phin énh thu nbap cia nén kinh t€, Nhung vio nam 1991, BO Thums ‘mai MY chuyén sang sir dung GDP. Xét ten tobn thé giGi, GDP In chi tieu duye sit dung nite how, 36 Cac chi tiéu khac vé thu nhap Hg thing ti Khodn thu nhap quo dan cdn bao gdm cae chi tidu kde eda thu nap. Ching kiée nau mot chit so vi dinh nghia ve GDP va GNP. Ditu quan trong la ching ‘a phi biet ce chi tieu nay, vi e&e nha kinh t€ va bio cht thutmg née ti ching. Ching ta 68 thé xc dinh mei quan he gia cfe chi téu Khe nhau v8 thu nbp bAng cfch xuit phat tir GNP, sau d6 kh trir cdc lugng khée nhau, Dé c6 chi tidu sm phim = (Px MPK) = R é toi da h6a Io nhusn, doanh nghigp tiep tue hue them Lr xuing mie bing gid thue th fn cho khi MPL gidim MPK = VP Gid thué thue té cita te bein fa gi thue duge tinh bang s6 don vj bang héa chit khong phii bang tien . ‘Tom Iai, mot donnh nghisp canh tran, ti da héa toi nbuan tuan theo quy t4e don isdn dé xe dinh xem nén thué bao nhieu lao dong va tu bin, Dounh nghiep ed nh ee 8 mdi nhdn 16 sdn suc cho dé ki scin phim edn bién ceria nan 0 dé gid xudng én mite bang gid nhdn 10 tae €: : Phan phéi thu nhap quéc dan Sav kh dX phan tich xong nu ciu ve nba #6 sin xutt ia ef doanh nghigp ef bigu, bay itching ta o0 thy gi phony the thi trang nh 1 sin xu ia hab phan phot thu np cia nn hind tf. Néu tit cd eft doanh nghigp trong én kinh w dy Th dosh nghigp canh tranh va t6i da ho fi nhuan, thi mi akan 16 sin xu 36 dluye thu akiptwong tg voi pian ddng gdp cin bien cia minh v2o qa nk sin xu ‘Ten luong thve (ta cho mi eng nha ing MPL. va gi thuéthye tir cho ngudi ‘chi sév hitu tw ban bing MPK. Bai vay, tng tién luong thy 1 bing MPL x L va tng, tim thue thie t€ tr cho ngu chu tr Bin Kt MPK x K. “Thu nhap cdn lai saw Ki ee doanh nghigp 43 thanh tosn cho ede nhan té sin xuat 1 loi nhudn kink té cua nguvi chi doath nghigp. Loi nhutn kinb 16 thye tf ban Loi nhuga kind té'= Y - (MPL x L) -(MPS x K) ‘Vi mudi nghien edu vin de phan phdi thu nap quée dan, ching ta bién di phuwong wink tren vai dye: Y= (MPL x L) + (MPK x K) + Loi nhuan kinh “Teng thw nbap duye ehia thanh thu aka tré cho lao dong, thu nb tx cho tr bin va loi nhugin kinh te Song neu gid dinh ring him sin xust 66 tinh chat foi suet Khong dai theo quy mo, Joi nhugn kinh t phii bang 0, Dieu dé e6 aghia 12 thu nhip duye phan phsi bet cho 61* ee luong, thu nap cia wy bin vi loi a Gag than 16 sin xu, Ket lutn bat ng mdy duye rt mt met thinh tu ton hoe néi Utne dud i te dink I§ O-te, ot inh IY king diah rang nu him sin sae os Iei suit khong Gi theo quy mo, thi FURL) = (MPL x L) + (MPK x k) Neu mbit i nhon duge thu nhap tung dng vi sin phim edn bien cian, th {638 efekhoin thu ohdp ein fe nhin © nay phi Bing tng sin layne, en tc aii kign lot sus khong di theo quy mo, 15 da ha lok aban va ean rent hag ¥ loi ‘ahuan kinb (¢ bang khong. nal lai nhusn kinh te bing khong, ching ta Kim t3€ mo dé Iy gi su ton ta cba tui nhugn trong mén kinh te? Ciu ti Ii kha nigm "lo ald theo ghia khiie v6i Igi nhuan kink t, Ch ‘gui lao dong, chi sé bitw tw bin va chi sense, itn dou shu, chu khong thus s6 tr bin mi ho si dung. BUi vay, hoes ABU ong 8 ngwbi si hou tu bin, Kh nigm "loi nhudn" thuong bec gore cane hua Kin t¢ vA thw ohap eta wy txn vi nev go “oi an Ik lot whe we odin, ching ta 66 thé viet: ‘Li nhuan ke toga =Lei nhutn kinh te + (MPK x K) reg ham vi eae gid dinh ci eng a1 oi sult khong di theo quy mo i da 16s ei hun va eanh tranh, loi nes kinht€ bing O. Néu akg gra deh y mo ta gin hing thye (6. ti “loi nbusn" tong sie ti Khon qude dan plas ign phat 1a thu ‘ahap ciia tw ban, Jy a ching ta 6 thé tI cho elu hd nu ra tu chung may vb eich thie reer a thu nhtp cia nén kinh w& dr dosnh nghigp sang ho gia dink. Mol eka oe aga te thu bap bing sin phim cin bien cin minh, vA Khodn tee tesa ae whca a Ging bing tng sin luong. Ting sn lean deg. chia thank ede Greg Ian Wd cho tt bin vi lao dong theo nang suét can bin eta ching NGHIEN CUU TINH HUGNG 1. Nan dich hach va gid mhan «6 gy tiuet tan 8 dign ve phan pit, sis nha w sang sin phim ean bien cia Tp De ning sus cin bieh phy tude vo a6 luamg nkan ts, suhoy oe trong bat Ay ahan t6 nto eting lim thay di sm ph ‘han tw. Do vay, ‘thay dSi cia cung ve mot nhan ts im thay di id can bing ela ahaa es te roe Fn) an Ole, hy a Sts dh nahn i lu ng 6 theo ‘04 8:2¥ = Fak 24) su 66 8 dgo him theo 2 ac nh gd Merle mon eo 62 sul cf bien eda lao ding ting kh lugng lao dOng iim, tin trang gdm et hn ton sang phia tei doc theo cic duéng trong hinh 3-3 va 3-4). Tién lmmg thuc té ting ten ting K-36 nau we Khong ep dot, Nong dn, nhOng nu may mn tha if due hudmg su thinh vuong vé kinh té. Iho man deh bs hy ng a ing 2 i 1 la go ng dna dh hy a ig pc t= hn Go in a eh 960 Ke ht Tram e0 Kt tng da m it dai, don vi dit dai ting thém lam ting sin luong it hon. Sur gio cc nong dan ti nén kha gi hon, thi giai ep sé hit dst dai phi vie tn nap tha ho’ 3.3. Nhu céu vé hang héa va dich vu ining tad bist digu gh quytt dich mic sin xust vi thu np do sia xu go ra ‘duge phan ph6i nhur thé ndo gia edng nhin vi ngubi sir hiu tw bin, Bay giv ching tty tue theo di bu dd v8 vng chu ehuyéa tong inh 3-1 vi ney xem sin Ineng sin xudt ra duye sit dung nbw thé ni. nat Trong chung 2, ching ta di thio lug v* 4 thanh 16 eda GDP: * Tiew ding (C} * Diu wr () * Mua bing eta ehinh phi (G) » Xust khan reg (NX) Bigu do ve ving chu chuyén chi aéu ra ba think (6 dau, BE don giin héa phin tc ci minh, te th hing i dah nti fg Uh ot ai Kg ‘quan he budn bin vii eae nude khée. Vi vy, xust khdu rong bang 0. Ching ta sé nghi city kind 1 vi mo cia efe nén kinh 1@ mut trong chwong 7. Non ki 6 dng bch ing Rng Nv eh vw ma sn x, Bs than (6 nay cia GOP daye biéu thi bing dong nhat thie trong cic tai Khogn que dan: Y=C#14G | (9) Calo M. Cipolla, Giai dosn tin ech mang céng nghigp: XA hoi va kinn 8 chiu Au, 1000-1700, | wt a Sa Rea $4 68Ho ga diah tieu ding mot phan sin luong ci nén kinh t8; doanh nghigp va ho gie «inh sit dang mot phn sin luong dé au tu; va chinh phir mua mot phn sin lvong dé phuc vu cho cic muc tiéu cong cng. Ching ta mucin bigt GDP duge phan bé nhur the rio cho 3 mus dich sit dung nay. Tiéu ding Ki sir dung lung thyc, thye phim, qui 4o hoae di xem phim, ching ta ti¢u «ling mot phan san lwong cia nin kinh 6 Tat ca ese hinh thie tu ding edag lai chi¢m 2/3 GDP. Vi tieu ding lon nhur vay, nén ee nhi kinh t¢ vi mo tap trung nhieu stc tue {Jé nghien cia xm ce ho gia dink lim thé nio dé quyét dinh tieu ding bao nbicu. Chuong 15 sé nghien eitu vin d® nay mot cach chi tit. Trong myc nay, ching ta chi xem xét nhimag phuong di¢n don giin nhat cia Hanh vi tieu ding. Ho gis dinh nian dive thu nhap tt lao dong vA sé hOw ty bn, ndp thus cho chin phi, sau d5 quyet inh xem nen ding bao nbieu thy nhap sau khi nop thué dé teu dang va dinh rabao nhigu dé vst Kiem. Nhurtrong mue 3.2 cing ta da bie, thu nhap ma ho sia dinh nin duge bing sin tummg cia nen kinh t. Sau 6 chinh phi dinh thué ede 4 gia dink va lay di phitn thu nhap bing T. (Mae di chiah phi 4p dung ahiu loa thu kc nhau, chdng haa thue thu ahap e4 nhan va cong ty, thue tiew thy vv. nhung dé Dhue va cho mue dich ea minh, ching ta cong ti ci ching Iai voi. nau). Thu nap sau khi di nop tit ei efe loai thu 1a Y-T duge goi la thu nhdp kid dung. Cie ho gin tri ngtn hing sé mat gid 59%. M6i nan deuce {ubigp no them 826 s6 tien vay, nhumg eid tr ea tiem li gid 5%. Lil suit thye te eke bing 39%, we bang mute chenh ech with Ii sustdanh oghia va ty Ie lam phst _one. chong 6, ching ta sé bin chi ict hom ve mdi quan he gia Iai sust danh nba a I sua thye t€, Tam thoi ching tachi can nbd ring Ii sust thw te phdn tah qh ht thue su cia tn vay. Do vay, ehing ta nn dith dis tw phy thuge vaw ly sth Uwe (6, chi hong phi 1 suat denh nghia, Mi quan he gia Hi suit th 16 vi dau tr e6 thé bw thi hang phuumg tinh sau: a) Phuong trinh ny him ¥ du tw tur aay. N6 6c xubing, phy thude vio li sat. Hinh 3.6 bigu thi ham dau Vi Rh Hai suat-tang, tuomg eu ve en gm, omg a 7 Hin 3-6, Ham dawtw Ham ctu we gdn taong din tc mong mucin 196i Nai suit hue t€ Babu we ph thude "do Iii sud hue t€, vi Iai sui Id chi pht y. Heim dau nedéec subng e6 nghia ang cao, cang it du én die te 66 a Mua hang cia chinh phi Mua hang eda chink phi 1 think 16 thé 3 eta nhu ew vi hing hn va dich vu Chinh phi Licn bang mua sing dan, ten lia, vi dich vu eda nhimg ngudi Kim vige cho chink phd. Chinh quyn dia phurmg mua sich cho thu vign, xay dung truiing hoe va thus gido vien. Chinh quyén ec cap xiy dung dutmg si vi cae cong tiah cdng edn, ivi, tng cong eaiém khong 20% GDP ciia Mg, Nhdng khosin mus hing nay chi fi mot hinh thie chi tiew eda chith phd. Hink thi chi tieu khiée fa chuyén giao thu nap cho cic ho gia dink nhw try edp x8 hoi cho ngudi'nghéo va tri tién bio him cho gud gia, Khée voi mua hing cia chink phi, hinh vi chuyén go thu nhap khong phai true tip sie dung sin long, hing héa va dich vu eta nén kink t€. Cho nén, a6 khOng dave tinh vio big 36 6. Chuyén gio thu shap tée dong gidn tigp den nhu cau-vé hing héa va dich vu, CChuyén giao thu nap fa yeu 6 nguoe ‘ai vi thue: nd fam (ang thu akp kha dung cia ‘ho gia dinb, trong khi thué Lim gim thu nhap khi dung. Cho nen, si gia tang ehuyén iso thu hap duce tai try bing mie ting tuemg ting ela thué lim eho thu ahap kha dung khong thay di. Bay gid ching tae thé sta dinh nghin ei mink véT bang eéch lay thug wir di chuyén giao thu nap. Thu ahap kha dung (Y-T) bao him ed tie dong. ‘im eta thué va tie dng dugg eta ehayén gino tu nhip, Nu mua hing cia chinh phi bing thué trix chuyén giao, thi G=T va chink phi e6 nga sich cén bang. N8u G iin hum T, chinh phi Im vio tinh trang than hut nga sdch. NO duye tai cry bing ech phat Hanh tri phigu eia ehinh phi - nghia li, chinh hi vay tién trén thi tredng tai chin. Neu G nbo hon T, chinh phi e6 ching dic ngn sséch vit phan thang du ray 06 thé sir dung d ted mot plidn s6 ng ton dong va yim bOt rg eda ehinh phi. PHAN BOC THEM Nhiéu loaf lai suat khic naw cia mdt W bio, ban thay e6 thong tin ve nhieu Logi suit Khe nhau, Nhung ong ton b9 cusn sich ny, ching ta ehi n6i dén Iai suit vA ‘ely ra city tung chi e6 mot fox Iai suit trong nién kinh té. Diém phan bigt dduy nist ma ching ta néu ra fa si Khe ahau git Iai suét danh nghia (chara diga chinh m phit) va Iai sist thye t€ (da dig chinh Lam phi): Tat ed ede loa lai sust néu ra io chi du 103i suit danh nghia, xem mue-kinh doanh 90 Iai €6 nbibu loa Iai sust nhur vay tren ban chi? 67Cée loai Iai sust Khe nhau 6 3 digm: * Thi han: Mot s6 khodn cho vay trong nn kinh t¢ 6 thii an nein, e6 Khi e - Nhung eting 6 nhiing khodn cho vay dai (i 30-nam. Lai suat cia e+ thuge vio thei ban eta né. Thong thing, nbwag Khong phi | ‘ing vay, li suft dai han eao hon Iai suat nein han * Rai ro tin dung: Khi phi quyct dinh xem e6 cho vay hay khong, nyu cho 12 Pht th den xe suat hodn tr ein ngubi di vay. Lua php eho phép con ne hone toan tr ten vay bang edeh tuyen bé vi nor Xie sult mal kh nang thank terrane ats ai sudt edn cao, Rui ro tin dung thip abit 18 chin phi va vi vay {8 phicu ctah phi thutng e6 Ini sust thip. Nguve Iai, ahiing cong ty gap kho kay Wi chinh chi goi due ven bang eich phit hinh rt phn méuh sid thdp, abun (ta I8i suat cao, * Tic déng cia thué: Lai suat ei ee lori tr ‘shaw nhitm pye vu cho muc dich dinh thut. Bi bang va dia phuomg phat hinb tr 6 loai tii phiéu nay khong phii 1ai swat. Do wu da i phiéw khiie nhau duge xir ly khie n quan trong nhat fa, khi chin quyién hic, n6 duve goi Id trai phiisu think phé va ngui nop thue thu nhap lien bang cho khosn thu nkap tir v8 thué nay, tri phigu thanh pho e6 lai suit thap hum, {Gh hy ha Toa ai suit kde ahau tren bio ch, Hw nhs hie mio ban eBing 66 thé {idl thick st khée nhau bing céch xem xét tht han, ri ro tin dung va eich dinh thu 446i vi khodn vay. Mae di 6 nhieu log Ii suit Khe nhaw tong mtn kinh ¢6, kinh ¢ vi mo thang, 8 au av ke bietniy. Cac loi Iii sult Kh nhau es x hing tang va elim cong chieu vi naa, Gid dinh chi e6 mot loi Ii sust fi eich don pin héa hu teh dt vor ime tigu cia ching ta, Se aay, ching ta khong tim cach 1y gidi qué tinh ehinh rj din dén mot chinh sich (i Sith ah din tte 18 din dén mot mae maa hing vi thue cia ehinh phi, Ching ‘chi coi mua hing va thué li ede bign s6 ngoai sinh. ‘DE ths hi¢n nhdng bin s6 nay duge e6 dink ben ngodi mo hinh, chi a T a viet T Song mue dich cia chung ta li musn xem xét inh hung cia ehinh seh tai chiah 15; vai ahi bia 86 dye xde dinh trong noi bf mo hin hay Big s6 nd sn O day. ‘eée bin 55 no: sinh Ia teu ding, du t va lai sua Dé bidt de bicn 86 ngoai sinh te dong dé bi 56 no sinh alu thé no, ching ii m@ inh cia minh. Bay fa doi tuang cia mue sau, 68 3.4. Trang thai can bang va lai suat Ching xem st ng ti ong gad ve vn ht chun tog ah 3.1, Ching ta di bat dau bing vige nghien edu cung vé hing hia va dich vy, sa phn tich nu eau vé ching. Lim tg nto dé ching tn in he ge ng ch chap yen 36 vlna? Ns cis ke, you 6 no dim Bo ng Sng ca eu dig, di a hing ch chinh phi bang khoi lung sin phim duye sin xuat ra? Ching ta thay ring li s dng vai t quan trong trong vige fim can bang cung cu Trang thai can bang trén thj truéng hang héa va dich vy: Cung va cau vé san lugng cila nén kinh té inh sau day t6ng ket pn trinh bay trong mye 3.3 v8 nhu Au hang Ce phuemg hoa va dich vu: " si itn ding, vA mo Mag hu chu ve sn lg ci ki 6 pt sin ig ci chin pi Tending po thte vo hv ab thi dog, tage noi State cbn moshing thn cin cin ph ang #5 gos inh ph tae chin sch chi ng ha v8 ch vu, by ching ta pin ch mt Sa Ki xem xt aha chu v8 ng hav ch vo, ay ching : ung Nb ai bay ong ne 31 ethan hn Xt ss xt ye ah i ong nu (K, Ly i a dé mo t2 cung vi cau ve say gidy chiing ta hdy kél hop cae phuong: nay lai, © a sin ogg: NEU ty ta Gi dong va him du to ng a hs ca Kod hs jahap quée dan, ching ta duge Y=OY-D+KN+G Vi ede big $6 G va T bi chinh sich quy dinh, con mic sin lugng Y do se nat 16 sin xut va ham San xuft quyét dink, cho mén ching ta e6 thé viet Yec¥-T+iy+G Phuring trinh nay néi ring cung ve sin lugng bing ctu vé n6 va ctu bang tieu ding, «au tr va mua hing eda ehink pho. BQ 6Pay gid ching ta c6 thé thay Iai sult r dung va td then eit n6 phil diy chin 82 £ Nhimg cau cri 1Oi én cha bax 6 ¥ nghia gi ddi v6i gid tuong di cia eft 6c s0,v6i thye phim ? Ai duoe loi do o6 tic bo ky thuat trong nong nghigp - agudi none dan hay th: ft te? Chinh phi tang thué them 100 tj. Néu khuynh hung tiew dang ct bien bang 0,6, dtu gi sé xay ra d5i vii 18. Tigt kigm cong cong? », Tit kigm tw bin ? © Tiét kigm quée dan ? 4. Dau tw? Gia sir vige cang nim tin cia ngudi tiéu ding fim ting kj vong tia ho v8 thu hp twang Ini va do d6 twang hing ho mucin tty ding higm ta eng ting theo. iu niy o6 thé 1f gidi bing su dich ehuyén Ién phia tren cla him tieu ding. St dich chuyén nay tie dong dén das tu va [i suat nhu thé nao ? ng & mite itu gh sé xy ra di chin phi tan the vi mn hing @ mie nh nha, Diu voi lai suit va dau tw khi e6 sw thay d6i ngan sich en bang miy ? Cau td li ete ban 6 phu thude vio khuynb huing tiéu ding edn bién khang ? a i dieu nay anh hung nhs thé mio doi véi [Neu tu din pho thuge vio fist, hi du nay inh hating r hung ket luén trong chuemg nay ve tée dong ela chinh sich ti chfahPHU LUC HAM SAN XUAT CoBB-DOUGLAS Ham sin aust nto mo GDP cia ede nen kinh w hi tie gia mot mghj si My ti ding phuomg thite chuyén dit tu bin va lao dong thin nay ? Liv wii dip eho eau hoi ni “i mot nha toxin hoe. 1a ket qui eda sir hop Paul Douglas fi nghj si My dai dign cho bang Illinois ti nam 1949 dén nam 1966. Song nam 1927, khi com I mot gio sw kinh 8 te, Ong di chi 16 mot thue ding nga nhjen: (7 1e phan phoi thu nhap gia tu bie va tao dong hw abu khong thay dt trong mot khodng thi gian Ubi, Néi cach Khe, kbi sin lung ela ngn kinh te tan Ong nan va gud si hit tw ban cing duce hung thu nhap cao hom mt edch bink ing. Ket qua quan sat nay la a i iy Li cho Dooly ng dh ang dein trong khong dét cia cic nhan t6 sin xu, Y ue Douglas hai Charles Cobb, mot nha toxin hoe, ing nei i é , MOK nha toxin hoc, Fing nu es thi Mam sin xuait nao es thé bigu th: ty trong nha « khong Si, néw ede nhain W6 chi nha Oa sin phn can bien cia minh. Him sin xudt phai ed tinh chat la: " ‘Thu nbap ein tu bi MPK xK = oY ‘Thu nhap cit dong = MPL x L = (I= ay ¥ trong d6 cB. mst hang s6 nim ia 0 va I phin dnd t¥ trong thu nhap eiia tw bain. Ny tones iY trong thy ahap cia tw bin, Nghia ti wot phe een ‘obb chi ra ring him s6 e6 tinh chiit ni m Y= FKL) = AKL I Fong d6 A [i mpttham s6 dn hom 0, phin dnb ing suft eta cong nghe hig o6, H ‘ay da tro nen adi ticng voi edi ten ham siin xudi Cobb ™ Douglas hing hy nghien cov KF ham tn cn im nat “am sin xuit Cebb-Douglas e6 loi swat khong ddi theo | quy m0. Nghi fa wb ‘vi lao dong ting theo eding mot t7I¢, sin lugng 86 tang theo ty 18 43. ‘Tgp theo, chung ta bay xem xét.sin phim c4n bien cia ham sin xst Cobb-Douglas. Sin phim ea bien ea uo dong 1 MPL = (I= a) AKL" va sin phim can bien cd tw ban MPK = aaK*"! Tir nhitag phuong trink ny va nd lai ing & adm trong khoing tir dén 1, chiing ta ce thé thy nguyén nhan lim cho sin phim etn bign cia hai nhan t thay Adi. Su gia ting kh6i lung i bain Fam sing MPL vi giim MPK. Tuong tu, su gia tang Khoi tuomg Jao dong lam tang MPK va gidin MPL. MOt cn bO cong ngbe Lim tang tham s6 A sé lim cho sin phim can bien cia hai nha 16 ting theo cing mot ty Ie Sn phim ean bien ciia him sin xust Cobb-Douglas eting 6 thé viet nku sau® = MPL = (=a) Y/L MPK = 0 YK MPL ty I vi sin luong cia mdi edng nhin va MPK gI¢ véi sin tuomg cia mbi dom vi tw ban, YL duye go IA nang sudt bink quan ciia lao dng, va YIK duge goi 1a indi suai binh quan eva dn, Neu ham sim xuat 1a ham Cobb-Douglas, thi nang sudt ‘ean bign cia mot nhan (6 ty 1¢-v6i nang suat inh quan cia né. ©. Gnd V mit tan hoc ching minh nam sén suit Cobb-Dovgls cb [sult King 6 Heo uy md cite hay nem ky gb sy 10H aS bn v8 ao 6g v9 met hlng 8 Flak, 2) = Aki a)! a ein v6 ph Feekat) = Adit 21 et Bin a6 cong the ny AE Kat hope biG the vk hay, a Flak, x)= 22S AKL! ham cia ching ts 8 thin Flak, 2b) = zac ‘ Ivhung AK Ut = FG, L), choot Flak, 20) 2 2KU= 2 ‘cho nén kl iuong ¥ tng fn Bling ch vol mt 25 z, miu ny 65 opin rdng hem sin aust ob et su kndng dh theo auy me "Gna VE mit ta hoe 8 e8 due e6ng the oh sn phim cl bi i nbm sin 28, ng ta cn im hal tp, A Hen Tnéy MPL, 9a IY VI phi eda hm sin ut theo LO th Lam {iu nay bang cdch hb vi Ky Yt (1+) sau 86 Wy nl 20 1 8 c6 ty tiza meta, TuaNg W, {4 c6 MK, my lay phn hm an aut eo K ‘s chs Ve met iodn hoc, 4 idm ta ef tu the nein phim cb dn, hy th ¥ vo Nm in st ei raring ee i te my Mong duang vl cae cng tue fue bly vé vin phém cin bin. viral 85CHUGNG 4 TANG TRUONG KINH Ti Vain d® tang trucing hod: toay Ming cb mdi me; ching qua chi 1 chige do méi duce Khede ein i ‘edn fo 10 mot vin dé mud thud, ludn ludn ghien citu: a6 8 si tea chon gia James Tobin eu dat duce su tang trudng wi thd 16 tang he he miy qua thé he Khde vd ahd oe luomg hing hoa va dich vy 1én -20 han, DE hin fat tang tring kinh- cdc nha kinh tsi dung Lieu phin dah téng thy nip eia moi neudi d nay ca MJ ting gap 3 fan nd 1950, edn ining ta 66 thé quan sit thay su kha bet vé me ‘ng git eée nuse vio bat kj nam ilo Bang 14-1 tinh bay thu nbapbinh quan div ngute a 12 nue dong dan nit the Bi MS dg da eh ; i hs hp 228 ao wing Nigeria chi dat 929 49 ta, ‘hua bang 5% con s6 ni ‘Mp. mn ous 6 lige vi GDP - mot ehi trong nn kinh t& GDP thue t€ hin OP thee du ngudi ting hom esp do. Phin tich xem tai sa0 mic song ney cing tang, ching ta phai hoa chinh phan teh cis minh 4& m6. ed nh thay di dién ea theo thi pian trong nén kinh 4 Ching {@ muon Lam cho phn teh ea minh mang tinh chit dng, nga la ging mtb phim chs Khong chi a bie anh chup, Mo hinh tang tring Solow chi ra inh hung ede et ‘ign, (le tang dan s6 va vign bo cing nghe dci vi sy tang truing theo thi sin fucng, Mo hinh cdn xc dink mot vai nguyen akan gay ra sy kde bigt ln vt nde sing gitla cfc nie, ‘Nhiém vu i theo Ia phan eh xem ehh sich kinh tinh huding ti mie sing {Eu sie lane mic song aby thé mio, Mo inh cia ching tal ca s'dé phn teh nbing Jif de quan trong aha trong kinh t€ hoe nhu: Higa nay nén tgu dng bao nhieu eh fone ca rién kinh w va nén tet kigm bao nhieu cho tuong lai? Vi tgt kitm eba ate Koh te bing div tu, nen tit kigm quyet din Khoi lugmg tr Bin ma nin kink oo a phe vw eho qui tinh sin xu taong la. Luong it kgm cia én kinh & ehiu le dong {Me feD vA hin ic ea ede chinh sich ma chish phi thue hig. Vige inh gi ahing chinh sich ny doi hoi phi higu duce ehi phi va ich Ivi xa hoi cia eae mie ult Hine Khe nhau. Bang 4-1. Su khde nhau vé mic sing gia eée nude nam 1990 Nae Thu bap du nau (40 la) My 22.063 Nhat Bin 17.791 Tay Bite 17385, Me-hiced 6.550 Lien Xo e0 (1989) 627 Bra-xin 4.684 Trung Quoc 2671 In-d0-ne-xi-a 2.329 Packi-xtan 1.631 Bang-ladet Las An Do * 1.280 Nicgioerica 929 44. Tich lay tu ban Mo hinh tang (rung Solow etio bict su gia ting Khoi Luong tu ban, lye luong lao ding va tn bo cong nahe tae dong qua Iai vi nhau nh the ndo va ching doh humg ‘Gi sin hngng ra sao, Buse di tien ds thiet lap mo hinh la phan tich xem eung vi eae AA 89 pai ba aba Sooching ta 66 thé kiém tra ditu nay. Nou cdc nhan t6 thu duge sin phim can bien cita minh, thi tham s6' di nhién sé cho ching ta biet bao nhieu thu nhdp dupe dnb cho Ino dong va bao nhieu cho tu ban. Téng s6 tien long ma ching ta da biet La (PL x L) chi don gién bing (I - a). BA vay (I~ a) Ia ty wong cia lao dong trong Sin lung, Tong tu, tng thu nhap ea tw bin (MPK x K) bing «cY va ofa trong cia tr bin trong sin twong. Ty I¢ thu nhap cia lao dong so vdi thu nhp cia tw bin [A (1 ava. va day chinh Ta ditu mi Dougias 44 quan sit thiy. TY trong cba cdc nian (6 chi pho thude vao tham s6 «, khong phe thude vio kh luong wn hay lao dong hay {inh trang cong nghe duge bidu thi bing tham s6 A, Nang s6 ligu gin day cong phd hop vi ham sin xuit Cobb-Douglas cho thty ty trong thu nap eis lao dng so véi thu nhap cia tw bin My tir {ies 1992, Mac di 6 nhigu thay d6i trong rén kinht€ suot 4 thap ky qua, tj Ie niy 6a {inh 6 con s6 0,7. Phuong thie phan phi thu nbap nity o6 thé dé ding ty sin xual Cobb-Douglas, trong dé tham sé a bing 0.3. 2 3 2 5 ‘TY trpng ca ao dong tone tg th ap 2 ° 19451950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 19k) 198s 1990 199 Nam Thu nhép cia lao déng vdn chin hosing 0.7 ting thu nip trong. mor hosing thd gian dai. Hong s6 gin ding andy eta trong whan 15 a bang ching cho su ing dén cia ham sén xudt Cobo-Dauglas. (Chi tiew wren duce tink trén ca 366 ligu trong 101 Bhodn thu fhdp qué din cia Mj. Thu nhdp cia Nguén : 80 Thuong Mai My. 86 inh 3-14. TY trong cia lao dng trong téng thu nhap a0 dong la phan thi lao tra cho ngubi a0 dong. Téng thu nhap ta tng cita thu luhdp tt 1a0 déngslo’ nhudn céng ty, lei sudt rong. dh uhdp vide 3 vad Kid hao, Tine mid cia ngudi chit so hitu ‘thong dige dua va tinh tod ndy, vind ‘bao gdm ca thu nhdp tiv lao dong va thu snhap ier ban) ink 3-14 im 1948 ii bing ham Bai tap va van dung bé sung 1. Gid sir him sin xust I ham Cobb-Douglas wi @ = 0.3 a, Tw bain va lao dong abn duge ty trong thu nhap [8 beo nhieu cx. ita gs xy a8 ‘elm lao dg ng 10% (0 bp ; > ig sin tm Un ag 67? Gi i we in? Te og the 7Ring ha Gn hung nbu thé nic ti gud tinh eh Hy te bin, Dé fam vice my, ching kit dinh Ino dong va cong nghe kong thay di. Tigp theo, ching ta nt Iong Hire $e ny, tne Het Blog ech BS sung thm ning thay di tong ie ham Ino dons sau d6 cho phép cong nghe thay di Cung va cau vé hang héa Cue vi ctu ve hing ha ding vai tr trung tam trong mo hinh Gnh ve vin kin A ia ching ta 6 chuong 3. Diu ny cing ding di wit mb hinh Solow. Ging ale trong chung 3, cung vé hang hos quy6tdinh mic sin lung duye sin xuat tat moe thee K*, da wen than khdu hao, nén ki lug tu bein bi thw hep, 5 8 Rta Khoi twung tw bain mi cong ahan Hinh 4-4, Bau tu, khsiw hao va trang théi ding inh 44 cho thiy chi e6 mot hoi tung tr bin duy ah fim cho daw wr bing kha bao, Nu in koh dat diye diém ny thi ki ong a bin Kone thay d6i theo thi Bite doa ZEtt® Him cho m6 thay doit ds tw v2 Khu hao va ddd Bh neo ity d6 66 nghia tai Ki Iwung tr bin may, AKO. Ching ta ros day 1a trang thai ddiong cia ki mg tu bin vi ky hig idk 94, Tién tdi trang thai dimg i i i han ca. én kiah &. Ne kinh Trang thi dimg biéu thi trang thii can bing dai hai ver sti tang tit my ci an, bit Ké nd xt pit wi ko hag tu Bin bao hice. is init kin wut pt ve a aomg tb hp hom trang th dmg, ching han Bing ki wong binh 4-4, Trong time hop my, di tu in hom Kh ao, Tho thot J ean, Kh Tuomg c tin tgp tue ting edng wi sin Tuemg eho wt Kh dat dn trang this slime k* 4, Tio nv, iit inh xt ph we KN Huge in Kn am | hngthan Teng tng apy, om i os i an anh fhom mie thay the. Kh luomg tw bin giim va nb vy vin tién dn teang th dng, hi hoi lung bin dat ti trang ti ng, dv a bing Khu ha vis thot hang te bin khong ting, ma cing khong gm, iy bang sé Tién téi trang thai dimg: Ching ta sit dung mot vi du bing s6' dé tim hiéu xem mo hinh Solow hoat d lam the nit d vig 061 trang that dime, Git i ham sin xuit: DE xe dinh him sin xuat cho mi eOng nha M0), ching tw hiy ehie ef ai vé cho Li Thay YL bang y va bin di, ching ta 66 Thay kK/L, ham vay a than cm FF yok? | h tren es thé wit thanh Phung yok lngng mi cong nbn bing ean bac hal eda Khoi lug tw bain mdi cone ahaa, sg oh 30% sin omg dae ki (03) mens mint ‘au bling 4 BE hodin think vi de nay, 10% Khoi luong a fxn bj haw mim mi mdm (5 = 0,1); va nn inh Ubi don vi tr bin mdi cong nhan (k=4). Bay gid, ching ta hay xem digu g° xa niga kin : AT 95Ching ta bat dau bing eich xem xét qui trinh sin xuat phin bé sin hung trong ‘nam thitnhat. Theo him sin xuat, 4 don vj Khoi lugng tw bin t3o ra 2 don vi sin phira mdi eOag nhan. Vi 70% sin lung duye diinh cho tieu ding, con 30% dé tit kiem Vv’ dau te, nén e=1,4 va i=0,6. Mat khic, vi kha hao bing 10% nén 8k=0,4. Voi dtu te bing 0,6 vi khaw hao bang 0.4; me thay di khdi Iuumg tr bin Ak phéi bing 0,2. Vao «fiw nam the hai, kh luong 1 bin midi cong nhan bing 4,2, Bang 4-2 cho thay nign kinh (tig ign ahw thé ni qua eéc nim. Méi att, kh Ing tw bia duge b6 sung va sin ung tang len, Qua abigu nim, nga kinh té dat trang thi dmg véi 9 dom vi tw bin mdi cong ahan. © trang thi dmg ny, me dau tw (0.9 ding bang kh tung tw bin hao mda, do vay khoi layne tr bin khong tang va sin Iugog cing khong ting. B Bang 4-2. Tién ti trang thai dimg: mot vi dy bang sé Gia din: y = VE 03 5=0,1 k ban dau = 40 Nam k y € i ok ak T 4000 2,000—“1.400 0,600 od00 0,200 2 4200 2045143561500 LS 3 4395-2096 14670829 oad 89 4 4584 1499 0,642 0.458.184 5 4768 IRE 1,529 0655477 OTR 10 5602-2367 16577100560 - 0,850 2 7321 1,706 1,894 081207320080 100 8,962 2,994 2.096.898 0896. 0,002. 3,000 3.000 + 2,100 0,900 0.900 0,000 Ngoii eich theo doi tin trinh cia nign kink t¢ trong nid nam dS tim ra trang thai ding, cn 66 eich tinh khie dom gin hain, Ching ta da bidt 7 Ak = sitk) 8k Phuong trinh nay cho bit k thay di nh ths no theo thd ian, Vi AK = 0 tai trang thai dimg, nén chung ta biet ing (= stk) - 5k 96 hay twong duong véind 1 keith) = si Phuong trinh ny Ei m@t ech dé tim trang théi dmg céa kh6i lugng tw bin mdi cong nhan k*. Thay vio vi dy cia mink, ching ta dude: KOK = 0,3/0,1 Bay git bin phuong hai vé, chung ta e6 kr=9 Nhu vay, kiGi twong tu bin mdi cong nhan 6 trang thi dimg bing 9. Két qua nay hing dinh ket qua tinh duge cho trang thi dimg trong bing 4-2. NGHIEN CUU TINH HUONG 4.1, Sy tang trudng thin kj cia Nhat va Dice [Nhat va Dae i at teu hop thin cong v8 tang tug kinh 1, Me db ign nay hig Ihe su eung ve kinh tf, nhung vio ndm 1945, nen kinh ete ea hai nude do 10; vio tinh trang én loan, Thé chit Id hy hoai phn lin Knot ugg te tin, Song hing thap kj sau chin tranb, hy 18 nlng nude dat ky tye ve te do téng trum nhanh ching. Trong khodng tr 1948 den 1972, sin luong binh quan du ngubi cia Nhat tang 8.2% va Dae tag 5,7% hing nam, trong khi MY chi ting trutng wit} 1e 2.2%. Ligu nhing kinh nghi¢o sau chin anh cia Nhat va Dit c6 ding ngae nin khOng tu xé theo g6e dd cua mo hin Solow? Ching ta hiy xem xét mot abn kinh 16 trong trang thi dime. Gid si hie tanh di ph hy mo phan tu ban. (Troag hinh 44, Kho ugg t bin gidm tr k* xudng ki). Khong ai agge nbién nes sin tune ngay tap te idm xubing. Nhumg néu tj 16 it kigm - te ty trong sin lung duye danh dé it Kiem. va dau tw ~ khong d6i, thi nin kinh ts tit qua thoi KY ting trang cao. Sin huong tang bai 1 vi Khoi gng tr bn abo hon, s6 tu bn dave bd sung thong qua Cu tw Tn hom kindu hao. Mic tang truoag eno ny tigp din cho dca ki ven kin t¢tién Sa trang. {hii dmg truse day eis nd. Vi vay, mae di vice phé hity md: pln te bin trong chien ‘tanh lam cho sin luvng ngay lap te ei xu6ng, nhumg vio ng nim sau, 18a kin 16 dat mie tang truing cao hon Binh thing. Stang trwng "hn kj" che Nhat va Duke ‘mi nhieu ty bio kinh doanh di nd i 1 dieu ma mo hinh Solow dy 30 cho ese nude bj chien tanh phi hay phn Kin tw bin Tuy nien, eel IY gid bien tuyng tht ky ny khong don gin chu vay. Gida hai nue nay va MY 66 sis khye bigt quan trong Khe, d6ng vai tr then chot trong thank {una kinh t@ eda ho. So vai MJ, c Nhat va Dic dnb ty Ie thu nhap cao hoa cho tigt kkigm va dw tu, Do vay, ho dit dave trang thai dimg khge. Dé hiéu duge dy it hon si hie biet gita ede aude, ching ta cin xem xét tic dOng cia ty Ie tiét kif ke nha. TKTVM oyNhiing thay déi ctia ty 18 tiét kigm rn a By xem i gk xy ra vi mn kin CK 6 it Km tng a 4s shnh ho cho sy thay di abu vy: Ching ta gi din ring ven Kio {€ xuit phat rang tray ad He lem 5 v8 Kg tr bin Sav, ty We ee ee si gy ah he Wades dich chun en phi ten Ti mie ue kien Ur nets bn ban du ky mg devin di dé Baty ee hee tay ae a 8 cau ho, ahung kd hom tw bin vi heh {ity a. Vi vy, dt eae tom Ki hao vat bin ting he te kee dat ti trang thi ‘Hing 1 ka" oh KS ong tu bin va im I cao hum rng th done ‘MO hh Solow chi ra rng 012 tg ig 10 eno then eh q hit quvet din koi lucy AG nan 7 trans thai ding. Nev ty 1 ti Kiem cao. nen hin te ob 0b eh amg te ban 8 sein Lang ten ham, Nei 1 fe 1 ‘gm tip. nen kin’ 18 8 kh tang bn va sdn luong thep. “ " i tet Kiem va tang wing kink e6 mn quan nu thé no? Ti kgm eno hun din dén ting true ahanh hor ne 5 . nhumg chi trong thi han nein, Su gia ting ty le mii Ney ts 4 Wing ti cho 0 Ki nn inh te datcoge es at ‘ding vn et kinh 6p ue dy 1 lt Ki 6 mie ao, m6 dy th doe as ues, “S8in mg. cao,nhung Khong thé day ti mai mat I ng cing one 3k Ty sty Teanga | Teng ni amped” > dna re E hi omg'ts Bin mi eng uhan Hinh 4-5. Sw gia tang ty 1@ tet kiem Sue sia tang 018 tit kgm s ha § in te 0, jin doi 61 moi Kh hag tu bain che tebe. Bai vy, 8 im eho hd sik Siem dich chuvtn en trén. Tai trai tat dmg eit, bay git dtu tw vie me kay hao. Khoi laong we bain tang ten cho wo Ahi dat duoc rang thai dig mdi vi ki cong te bain vin tem ca he. 98 NGHIEN CUU TINH HUONG eee 4-2. Diu tu va tigt kiém @ nude gitu va nude ngho ‘Theo mo hink Solow, néu mot qué gia dinh tf 1¢ thu nhap cao che tict kigm vi iu ts, n6 s& 06 khoi Ivong wr ban & trang thai dime 16m hom vi thy nip exo hon. Kei Ian Iy thuyet nay ed nhimg ¥ ghia thye tién quan trong. Di nhien né es thé gop phn Iy wii si Khe biet ln ve mic sing gid eée nude. Hinh 4-6 [a bidu do fi quy ve sé Tieu eda 113 nude. Hinh ny bao gom hidu hét cae nén kinb 18 ten thé gigi, (N6 khong bao gm cde muse sin xust diu Téa Ldn vi cde nue XHCN trong thoi kY ny). $6 liu cho thy méi quan fe twong quan thuda git 6) Je sim Tuo dim cho tiét Kiem va thu nhgp div nga. Cate nude 6 ty led ww ea0 hw MY va Nhat thuiing e6 thu nhap eno hon, trong ki ese nue 66 sy 1¢ fw ee thip johu Zaire va Chad e@ mic thu nhap tp. Ding nhw m6 hinh Solow dy bso, ay le dau far a you t6 then e16t quyct dinh mot nue gid hay nghéo. 100.000 0.00 ey ‘Thu bp Su gui 1989 tihng lg) os 10 202s 3038 Wo ‘i ng % si long bin gun 1960-1989) Minh 4-6. Bang chimg quéc (é vé-ty 1é dau tu va thu nbp du ngudi rye tung biew thi thu wha dau ngudi tia mdi nude. Daw te cao gin vii thu nnhap daw ngudi cao, ding nbue md hinh Solow du bio. Big do hoi quy nay chi ra kink nghiém tia 113 made, mai mai die big thy bing mor dim duy nuit. Trac haan iets ah 15 16 dt ke mdi made, e6n Ua 994.2. Mite tu ban @ trang thai vang (Ching tx da xem xét moi quan he gida ty Ie vit kigm, Khoi hamg tw bin va thu hap 6 Wang thai dime, Tie theo, ching ta pin tich sem mae tich ly ur bin nity ki {6i wu, Sau day trong mue 4.5, ching ta s€ tim higu xem chinh sich eda chin phi fam thay di ty ett ie nh the nio. Nhung trae het tong me nay, ching ta trinh bay 19 thuye! lant ev x cho nhimy quyet dinh ehinh sich nhur thé. DE git cho phan tich eda minh don gin den mie cho phép, chting ta gid dink ring cic nha hogch dink chinh ‘ch 6 Ehi ning quyet inh bat kj ty Ket kiem ni eta ngn kinh t€. Thong qua vige stuy dinh 613 tit Kiem, ho etn quyét dint trang thi dmg cia ntn kinh te. Ching ta x6t xem ho s& chon trang thai dimg ni, So sanh cc trang thai dimg Khi chon u fia phe ton trang thi dmg, mue teu e4n nh hoach dinh chfah sich 1a. toi da oj mguii trong Xa ho. Ban tin mbi new khong quan tam dn kh tong tn tong ni kin thim eh mgay ci sn mg, Ho eh quan tn dn rm hang hia va dich vu thé teu ding, Do vay. at oach dink ein sch hi Sign mun chum trang thik dig dem lai mde vou ding eae aha. Trang ti dmg o8 tee ng caw nt dave go mie tch tay ty hm nie dia theo qu tie ving (co it trang ha wg) chy i Bg 4, Lam the wae dé biet nen kin t€ e6« trang (aii ving hay Khong? BE tr caw hoi nay, trade het ehsing (a etn tinh mie gu dig mdi cOng nhan trang thai dime, Sau 115, chung ta 6t xem tang thi nv tao ra, me rgu ding ao nile bg h nue tiéu ding msi ce nhan cr trang thi dim, ching ta bit dw tr cng hat thie back win quike din yresi Chuyén ve ching ta dave enyei Ticu ding bing sin Isumg ti dau tw, DE tah mute tie ding tai trang thai dmg, hing ta chi vite thay ede gi tr trang thai ding eda sin kang tw vao cong ‘ngetre, Sin lung mi cong nan trang thai ding Bang fk), vit k* Kh ng 1 bin abi eOug nbn 6 trang thé dmg. Hon th! nif, trang thsi dimg, dau tang Abate hao 6k®, Thay y bing f(k*) vii bang 8k ‘ong thie tren ehiing ta es Hk) = 6k 100 ding 6 trang thai dig bing sir lugog. ti kha hai luyng tr baw tang them gay lim cho sin tummgeao hon, Phuomg trinh teen ei ra ring ti hao & trang thi dime. Phuong trink ny chi 9 rin ra hai te dong doi w6i sicu eding-¢ trang hii dmg: n fnhung nhigu sin ligmg bun pai si dung dé thay the kh lung tu bain hao mén. eye vi tr efel mot ham Itinh 4-7 v8 ding sin fgmg va Kha ho orang thi ds ; cia khii luyng tu biin «trang thai dimg, Tren hinh nay ehi e€ mBt Khoi lugng te ban toi dah tou ding «te trang thai vag 1g vA Kit hao ‘trang thai ding Kiss amy in as eng han ‘firang ti ing . Tiew ding 6 trang thai dims ding ti daha tiéw ching dace goi ta wang thai vang. Khai lung ew bin & eang thi vag hae ky higu la va thew dang duage ky Inéu la e. Hinh Sin Ding eta nb kinh 12 dpe sie dung dé tien ding hode daw tu. Trong trang sta ding, daw tr bing kh hao. Bai vd, iéu ding d ergng thai dimg bang sein lucang fik*) tric Kady hao BR*. Trang thai tw bin fim giim tigu ding, w sin lung tang cham hon Kh hao, Trong truing hep 6 cing do doe va BO lotDE lam cho vain d® may Khe di doi chat, ching ta hiy gid dinh sien kinh 46 xust hat mot mic tu bin k* mio dé va ring cic nbd hoach dinh chinh sich ed dinh {ang Khoi lung tw bin len ti k*+1, Sin lung tang them sé bing f{ke+1)i(k*), te in phim can bign cia tu bin MPK. Lacing khfv hao ting them cia mot don vi tw bin 8 sung 18 6. Nhw vay anh huing rong cia vige-ting them mat can vit bin 46k veh ‘eu ding 18 (MPK-3). New koi long tr in 6 tang thi Vang, th si gia tang Kha {img bin edng fim ting teu sing vi sin phim edn bien eda tu bin Ién him tle Kea hao, Neu Kho Iuomg tr bin mee eao hom trang thi ving, thi su ga tang kos {Ame tu bin sé Tim gid teu ding, vi sin phim etn bien cia tr bin ahs hon ty te iu hao, Do vay, digu kien dat duge trang thai Vang 1a MPK =8 “Tal mde tu bin trang thi ving, sin phim cn bien eda tu bin bang 6 Ie kid 4h. N6i efch ki, si phim edn bien eda tw bin tri) Ie Khu hao bing 0. Can ohd Ping sgn kinh t€ khong ww dong tic ti tang thi ving. Vige ita chon KON Taong tu bin & mot trang th ding nt dinh, ching han tang thi ving, dee Pane WO! QuyCt din chon & Ie tet kigm nhat din. Hinh 4-8 biGu thi trang thi dim, Ri) eet kigm duge xe did t90 ra mite tw bin € trang th ving. N&u t 1 it Xam 20 han ty 1¢ ge si dung trong sinh may, kh ong tr bin 6 trang thsi dig Ea cao, Ne tj Let Kiem gus dh, ho tum tr bi Stang thi dmg sé qua thi. Bk ‘Sin mg 28 hove a “ogden tae a act Hinh 4-8. Ty 1¢ tet kigm va trang thai vang Co mor Ie tit kiém tae ra. mite tw bin S traug thai wang KS. Su thay dd 18 18 side ‘Kiem sé lam dich chuyén dung sftk#) vi diéu nay dy nén kink re chuyén tdi trang ‘thai ding vii mie siéu ding thlp hon. 102 So s4nh cac trang thai dimg: vi du bang sé Chuing tw hy Sem xét trudmg hep nh hoach dinh chinh sich etn ina chon tran: tii dimg cho nen kinh «€ sau day. Ham sin suit-vin nhu trong cing ta y= vk Sin Iuomg mdi cong ahan bing ein ble hai cia tw bin tren mdi cong nhan. TY te kia hao vin 12 10% tu bain. Lim nay ahd hogeh dinh chinh ssich chon tye tit kigm s va bull vay day 1a trang thsi dimg cia non kin 16 ‘BE xem xét KE eve ma nhd hoach dinh chinh sich e6 thé la chon, hiiy nhé la phung trinh ding v6i trang thai dimg sau dy: v6 va git phuong trinh, ching ta due k= 100 Binh phuong hai Do vay, ty Ie ti¢t ki¢m 0,5 tao ra trang thii vang. Mot cdich khie dé xée dinb trang thi ving Ia sit dung sin phim cin bien cia tw bin, Doi véi him 1 MPR Se Suu Kei sir dung ers “hie trén U6 tinh tosn, chiing ta ghi gid ti cha MPK-8 trong ce trang thai dmg khée a. 0 hai bt eu6i cia bing 4-3. Mot Tha nia, hay chi 5 ing ¢ trang thai yang, sin phan es. ion eb ban trit khiiu hao bang by 103Bang 4.3. So sinh céc trang thai dimg > Gia dink: y s i ” ake oF MPK —MPK.5 0000 00 00 00 ° o ou 10 10 ol 0.9 0,500 0,400 02 40 20 04 16 0.250 aso 03 90 3.0 09 210167 0.067 04 150 40 16 24 02s o.025 os 50 25 25 0,100. 0-000 06 6.0 36 24 00083-0017 07 490 10 49 21 oot 0029 08» 64.0 80 64 16 = 0,062 -0.038 09 RIO 90 RI 09 008604 10 1000 100 100 0.0 0050 -0.050 Qué trinh tign téi trang thai vang ‘BAY gi ching ta hly xt van cia nha hoach dinh chin sich mt eich thue ts hom, O teér, ching t gia dinh ni hoch dinh chinh sich e6 thé lua chon dye trang, Inti ang v8 a hooch dinh chinh sich chon trang thi ding e6 mie teu dong oo Dial ha Mes kinh 6 dat duce 6 max trang ht dmg king phi rang thal ang seal 8 xy ra view ding, da tu vit bin Ki nn kinh Le chuyéa tr tang thes “ize AY sang rang thik dimg Khic?Ligu te dong eda qua trnh chuyén d6i eo gan “nha hoach dinh ehinh seh tim ech dat duge rang thai ving khong? {Chine a phii xom xt hai treme hon: nt kinh tbat Qu wi Ki lung bin ‘on hom hod nh hon Khoi lugng te bin trang thi ving. Trutmg hgp eb quan te ban iy abi kh khan hon co nha hoach dinh chinhséch; n6 bude nha hoach dinh chink ringtal & sinh ich loi ci teu ding bien ti va tieu ding tung lat Nh chime ta ‘VIMY G mac 45, tinh Kinh may 8 phé bin & Raw het cdc én kinh ke cd Mp Hat dau vi mite ty bin cao hon trang thal ving. Ching text rvdng hop rtm “inh ¢ Rut ht voi koi Iuomg ty bin Ién bom Kh lung ty bin trang this ‘ong ttubng hop niy, nha hoach dinh chinh séch theo dudi chinh sich edt vi eh 28 cit gin kh uomg tw bin 6 trang th din. Gi sir chinh sch nay thank In WA who th dim ndo d6 - poi T8 ty ~ 49 He tit kiem gidm te: se ob the dn tot sing thii ving, Hin 49 cho thay ditu gh xy ra vi sin tuo, ding vA du tu Kh tf tisk “$m gid, Si suy gidm ge tet kigm ngay Hs Fim tng teu ding va grine da tw, Dau tr bay gi thap hon kia hao, cho aén ngn kinh te khong cdn @ trang thi dig na. Ki khdi luong tu ban giim, sin lung, tieu ding va dau tw dan dn giim ti trang {hai dimg méi. Vi trang hii dime nif trang thii ving, nn chung ta biét sing tien dang cao hom mic trae khi tf Ie tict ki¢m giim, mae di san Layne va du te tsp hon, ‘Sin ne 9) Tiew ding (e) Duwi i Th gin Fete Hinh 4-9. Bign php eét gdm Ggt kigm Ki xuat phat voi mite tu ban cao hom trang thai vang 1 gid d mite neang ing. Rhi hhc tong tu bein gid theo thoi gian, sd lung, dieu ding va daw cing gid. Vi nn inh t€ bt dw vet qué nbigu ww bein, nén trang thai ding méi cé mite thew ding ‘ao hom trang thi dmg bean de Hink nay cho thdy didu gi xdy ca d6i voi san lang, tu dang vd daw te thea thei sian hi nién kink (€ xuci phat vii kha luaang tw ban ton hon trang that vang vi (FF¢ thet kid bi cat gid. Bién phdp cat sid 15 18 ti€t kiém (1a thoi didin 16) ngay lip nie tam tang tiéu ding va dw Can lau ¥ rang, so véi trang théi dimg ci, teu'ding khong chi cac hom trang théi {ime mei mi con cao hon trong sust qu tinh chuyén sang tang thik ving. Neu Rh {uunE tx bin cao hon Ki uong tw ban 6 trang thi ving, th biém php cft giim tet kKigm 16 rang fa mot chinh sich t6t, vi n6 Kim tang tigu dimg ta, moi thi diém. Bat dau v6i mite tu ban thip hon trang thai ving. Khi rén kinh W xutt phat gi ‘kh6i lagng tu bin thdp hom trang thi ving, nha hogch dinh chfah sich phii tang « le Aist kigm dé dat duge trang théi ving, Hinh 4-10 cho bigt ket qua cia chinh sich ting tj ' iet kigm. Su gia tig Ie tet kigm & thoi diém to ngay lap tie fim gidm tiea ding sling du, Theo th ih. ya tng dt im cho Kb ue tu in tng, Tong qué trinh teh Jay tw ban, sin Ivong, tiéu ding va diw tw dan cin tang len va dat ti trang théi dimg mdi, Vi trang thai dimg ban dau thip hon trang thii vang, cho nen su sia tang tit kigm e6 thé dn t8i mic Lieu ding cao hum so vei diém xust phi 54 105Sin tg) Tis ding) Bia tw) — Tang ue ke Hinh 4-10. Bign phép tang tét kigm khi xusit phat V6i mite tu him thip hon trang thai vang Hiah nay cho thy digu gi say ra doi vi se len, teu ding va dau te the thot sien Rit ntm kin 16 dt dt vi ‘nang bin nh ham rang tha ving vd 15 I it kin tng len, Su gia tang 1618 {ict Kim (ai thi didn to) ngay kp te fam gid rdw ding vd du te tang “003 Lieu sw gia tang tit kiem din t6i ta hong? C6 thé dat duge digu d6, vi tieu di dat duce trang thai dimg moi ddi hii ban ‘mite tong img. Khi kai tang tw bain eo thi gan, szin hang, tg dling vai da tccting tang, Vi ng kin txt phe voi qua i we bdn, nén trang thai ding moi 6 mie tien ding cao hon trang thai ding ban di ing thai ving e6 tim ting phic Iyi kind te lang & trang thi dimg cao han, Nhung vige fay phai eft gm tieu ding, Ha lu § rng, «teu ly nguge voi ruong hop itn kinh w& xuat phi 6 mae tren trang thi ving. Khi je kinh tf xu pht 6 trang thi exo how trang thé ving, th eu dimg ea hom tong swot qua tinh tr ve trang théi ving. Khinén kink 16 xndk phat d twang thai evo hon {rang thal vag, qué trink dat 16% trang thd ving 140 ra nate tiéu ding cae hm tai mot (hot din. Khi nin kink 1 xudt phar & trang thai thdip hon trang thdi ving, qué crinh dla 16 trang thd vdng dd hi phe gin wi ding itn tai dé tngtiew dng trong wong tai. Vige quyet dink xem o6 nen tim ech dat t6i trang thei ving khong 1a mot didw het ‘eho khan, v1 sO Iuong ngui tieu dig thay d6i theo tdi gian, Vige ds duge trang i ving dem lai me cao nit eta tiew ding trong trang thi dig vi bi vty e6 lot cho thé he mai sau. Nhu vay khi bn kin tf xust pht 6 mde tap hom trang thi vang, vige Jatt trang thai vang di oi pli tang dau ty, qua ds ng ign tai 106 ‘sim tieu ding eda the Ki pha quy6e dinh xem 66 tang mde tich Tay ur bn hay khong, nh hoach dinh chin sich phai so sink phe li ea ee the he Khe ahau. Nha hoach dinh chiah sich quan tim niu hon dy thé he dvcmg thi e6 thé Khong theo dui chin sch dint trang théi ving. Nguge fai, nha hoach dinb chinh séeh quan tam nhu nhaw dei tt cic thé he sé lua chon chioh sich dn si trang thi vang. Mae dd the be hin tai phi tieu ding it hon, ntumg nhitu the he sau duoe loi khi nin Kind té dat ti trang th ving, Do vay, mic tich ly tr ban U6 phy thude chit yéu vio chd ching ta can ah nu thé nao gia ie cathe hg hidn tai va tong Ini, “Qui te ving” trong kink tinh ni vi cing ta ing “kay che chi moi ngutsi nh Khi con ein Wi su che ch cia ho" [Neu tin vao ditu rin nly, ching ta s8 quan tim iG tit cd ee thé he. Trong trum hop 4, vige dat duce Khoi lung tu bin «trang thai ving 18 phuemg dn tra ~ vi dy 1s 1y do ai sao n6 dupe gai li "Trang tha: vang” 4.3. Sy gia tang dan sé Mo hinh Sotow ea bin chi ra ring qué trinh teh lay tw ban chua dis dé Iy gi sw tang truimg vimg chic. TY 1¢ tit kiem cao tam thoi din ti ng truimg eno, nhumg nn kin t¢ 66 thé tién den trang thai dime v6i khoi luong ts ban va sin tong khong thay i, Dé Ly gid sw tang trang vang ehée mi ching ta quan sit thay &hidw het miei noi tren thé pidi, ching ta phi md rong mo Ninh Solow dé dua them vio hai nguion khie ciia su ting trusng: su gia ting dan s6 va tign bo cong nghg. Trong mse my ching ta bi sung sur gia tang dan s6' vio m6 hink ‘Thay vi-gia din dan so khong di ain da teinh bay trong ede mye 4.1 va 4.2, bay git ching ta gid dich rag dan s6 va luc lugng lao dong ting vi 16 6 dlink n. Vi du ‘@ Mj, 47 Ie tang dan s6 hing nam bing 1%, nén n=0,01, Biou nay ¢6 nghia li néu mot nam nao 46 ¢6 150 trigu ngudi lao dong, thi trong nim ti, Ie Iugng lao dong bing 1515 trigu (1,01 x 150), trong nam tiép theo bang 153,015 trigu (1,01%151,5) va ww. Trang thai dimg khi cé sy gia.ting dan sé ‘Su gia tng dar s6 anh huéng t6i trang thai dimg nhw thé nao? Dé tra Loi edu hoi nay, chuing ta phéi phan tich xem cing véi sy gia ting dan sO, dfiu tw va kha hao thay. di nhur thé mio va ching tée dong dén qué trinh tich lay tw ban trén mBi cong nan ra sao. Nhu di néu & tren, dau tw Lim ting khoi Iugng tur bin, edn khdu hao Lam gidm n6, Nhung bay gid edn e6 them you t6 thir ba lim thay d6i kh6i Iugng tw bin mdi cong ‘nhiin: Iugng cong nln ting Lam cho tw bin trén mdi cong nhan gidm xu6neg. Vin qui ude nbs trea, ta 66: K=K/L Ib kh6i Iuong tw bin mi cong nha; y=Y/L ta sin lume moi cong nhan. Nhung cin nké ring s6 luong cng nhan khéng edn e6 dint ‘ahi traie ma, ma tang I8n theo thi gia, 5% 107Su thay Ui cia Khoi luong tr bin mdi cong nban bang: Ak=i- (64 mk Phuomg trinh niy cho thay dw tu méi, Khiu hao va sur gia tang dan sinh bude nnhe thé ato én khoi luung tu bin m6i cOng aban, Daw tu lam ting k, nhung khsiu hao va sy gia targ dan sO am idm k. Tren day ching ta d3 bist phasing trin nay trong trudmg bop din so khong di (n=O), (rm sik) a ie k a Fee ds hl tuomg tin Bi cng na Hinh 4-11, Su gia tang dan sé trong mé hinh Solow Gioing nhve kiuie hao, su gia tang dan si a: mot nguyen nhin tam cho khoi eam, fur bd mdi cng nbn giim di. Goi w la 15 U6 tang dar s6 va 8 li 1 Ie Bhd ha, thi (8 hk i eam dw tw can thigt dé sii? cho khdi heang we bain méi cong (Ching ta o6 thé coi (6 + nk ed ra vite di han k kidng thay di Bow nem Kin 1 d tang that ding, du tw phdi ean boing vii kha hao va sue git (6 + mk. Trang thai nay duge bid thi bing giao diéin cia hai ding dé dan $6 nie dau tu vita dit dé git cho khoi {ung turban mai cong nbn khong thay déi, Mie daw tr vim di bao gm ed mie Khai thao tu bain high 66 bang 8k. Neots bi wba Fang tr bin sia tang can 38 im gidim mite ang bi cho mdi cong nhan. Phuong trinh trén cho ching ta bic 2, 6 en bao gm ci phn du tu eh thiet dé trang cho nhimg cong nin méi. Khoi luyeg dau tu etn thiet dé dj nay bang nk, vi c6 n cong nhan mii tinh cho mdi cong nhan hin €6 va we nb cw 1a kh ng Si fh ly tu ban tren mi cong nhan theo ech giving nwt knaiu hao, Khu hao kim giim k do sit hao mon, edn sw gia tang din $6 Kim giim k vi pha ri khoi wang te ban ra cho nhieu eng nin hen. 108 Dé sit dung due phuvng trinh ten, ching ta thay i bang sftk). Phung 66 th viet tai nb sau: ai stk) = (3 + ake DS xem yeu {6 mao quyét dink Khoi Iuomg tu bin tren mdi eOng nan tai trang thé ding, ching ta sit dung hinh 4-11. Hinh may mé rong phin ich cba hinh 44 dé bao him ea inh hung eda str gia tang dain sO, Non kink (€ 6 trang théi dmg Khi Kid gg tur bin trén mai cong han khong di, Ching ta ky higu gid tri dimg eta k la k*. New ken ham k®, thi aw tr kin bom mee vita di, nén k tang. Néw k Ion hom k*, dau tw ahd thom mie vin di, do vay k gi, 6 trang thai dimg, tie dang duong cia du tu d6i véi kh lung tw bin vita di: db can bing tie dng Am eta kid hao va ty Ie tang dan s6. Nhu vay, 6 mite k*, ke va it = Sk" + nk*. Khi nén kinh t€ dat dua trang thai dimg, du tw phye vu che hai muc dich, Mot plian cia n6 (BK*) thay the bo phan tu bin bi hao mon, phn edn Iai (nk*) duye dink dé trang bj eho eong nba mi Dou tu, au tw via dt un <— Ks hg nmi cong tn Uinh 4-12, Anh huding cia su gia tang dan s6 . han. Boi vay m3 hinh Solow deebdo rang (ic nbn inh #6 vi 1818 ng Lin $6 cao Jha sé emit bain bi cong wn thdlp Jum va bail vy 08 thu whip tha’p ho, TH 16 tang dan 36 tang (én daddy dung Digi thi su gia tang dan $6 kh hao en phia trén, Trang thai ding mdi eb Ahi Laem. bain Bi ecing nd hip 5d 109NGHIEN CUU TINH HUONG Tac déng cia sy tang din sé Str gia lang dan s6 Fim thay d6i a hinh Solow eo ban tren ba phuong din. Thi nit, 26 gitip ching ta Iy gidi sy ting trudng ving chée mot eieh chinh xe hom. 0 {fang that dmg vii sy gia tang dtm si, Khoi lugng tu bin aren mi eOng Ahan khOny 6s, oi vt 6 huong eng nhiin tang Wi tF 1 n, tng Khoi Iuong tw bn vi sin luong cing ting vGi ty Ie n. Do vay, surgia ting din 36 khong thé ly gid sr tang tng ving ec ela mie sing, vi sin Iuong md’ cong nbn & rang thai dimg khong thay dé Nhung su gia ting dan s6 e6 thé ly git su tang tung ving che cia tng sin amg (Th hai, su gia tng din s6 gdp ching ta 1y gidi ti sao mot s6 ause gidu trong Ni mt 6 nunc Ki Ini nghéo. Ching ta hiy xem xet inh hutng cia su gia tang dan RE Hinks 4-12 cho thty ring neu 1 te ing dan 56 thay Gi wnt len no, kh lnong te bin mai cong nhin & trang thai dimg gid tt K*L xtong k*2, Vi k* thip hon va vi ¥" = fik*), nén sin luung mdi cong nkan cing ths, Nhu vay, mo hinh Solow du bic ing nude e6 47 Ie tang dan s6 cao hen e6 GDP dtu aguéi thay han, Cuci cing, su gia ting dan s6 sinh heing 16 diéu kiga xe dinh mae ic iy tr bin itang thi ving. Dé tim duge ditu kien nay rong nen kinh tf e6 s¥ gia ting dan ad ching ta vin tich hinh nhu trase, Tieu ding mBi cong akan fa ery Vi sin mong 6 trang thai dim 1a 1k) va dau tr bing (B 4n)k*, ching ta e6 thé viet phuung tinh ticu ding tai trang thii dimg abu sau: fk) (5 + mk ‘Sir dung ech tap twin nhw phn trade, el ‘hoa tiew ding k* fi mie théa man slew kign ding ta ket lugn ring mie tw bin 61 da MPK = 8~n ny MPK- tang thi vang, sin pki edn bien eat bin irks hao bing 6 te tang dan 5 4-3. Sur tang din $6 6 nude giau va nude nghéo Theo mo hinh Solow, au gin 6s 1j 18 ting dan 36 cao s8 €6 Khoi hung tu bin {fia agus trang ths ding thap va nh vay thu nha biah qutn cing thip, NOt een ic aude ting din $6 cao Fam cho dit nue nghto di bi Khd 6 thé duy an mite Ho bin binh quan cao khi s6 luong cong nian tang qui nhanh. Ching te hay xem s6 lieu quic LE dd thy rb dieu ds, 100.000 vr Coas Su gia tang din 6 (% aim) (binh quin 1960 - 1989) Bang ching qude té vé sy tang din s6 va thu ahap daw ngudi Minh 4. Hink nay (a bieiv dd hii quy cia 113 mnie NG chi ra vitng eae nui vi 1 Ib ting dan $6 cao 6 xt haing ¢6 mite hw tnhap dl ued tha, nines inh Solow dw bao Hinb 4-13 fi bigu do hoi quy ve s6 ligu ca 113 nude mA ching ta di xét trong nghien ci tinh hung 4.2. N6 cho thay efe nude e6 11g tang din s¥ eao thing c6 {hu nap dau ng thip. Bang elvng quée t€ may phd hop vei dy bio cia mo hinh Solow ring 19 le tang din s6 Ta yeu 16 guy dinin mie sing cia mot nue. 4.4, Tién bd céng nghé Bay git ching ta da them tign bo cong nghé, ngudn thi ba cua ting trudng kinh {E,vao m6 hinh Solow. Tren diy mo hah eb ehing t dBi dinh mg quan he khong Gi gita du vio tw ban vi lao dong véi sin luong hing hoa va dich vu. Chiing ta c6 thé bign d6i mo hinh dé bao ham ci se gia tang agoai sinh cia nang Lye sin xuat unHigu qua cia lao dong Dé dtm iisn bo cong nehe vio mo hinh, chung ta phi bat ew tir him sin xust lien ket ting tu bin K va lao dong L véi ting sin luyng Y, Ching ta di bigt him sin xuat Y=FKD Bay gid ching ta viet him sin xust dud dang Y= FKL xE) Trong dé E ta bign mi 66 ten Ia higw qué phi nh higu bit ci ci thin, iio dy tao dong. Higu quit cia lao dong ia X8 hoi ve phuung phap sin xust nhu: cong nghe hign 6 duge qui cia lao dong tang len. Hu qua cia lao dong cin phan anh site khoe, tay nghié cia tue luung lao dong, Bigu thie L x E 13 luc Iugng lao dong tinh bang don vi hiéw qué. N6 bao him s6 Iugmg cOng nhin L vi higu qui cin mdi cong nin E. Nhu vay, him si ay ni ing ting sin lung Y phu thude vio s6 dem vj tw bin K va s6-dan vi higu qua eda lao dong Lx E, Gi dinh dom gid ahat ve tig 60 cong nghe 18 nd Fam eho higu qui cia tao dong E tang theo ty Ie e@ dinh g ndo d6. Vi dy nu g = 0,02 thi mdi dam vj lao dong 38 tea nen higu eusi hon 2%/nam: sin luumg ting cu Ive lang lao dong ting them 2%. Dang tic bo cong mghe nay due goi la c6 tink chat md rong lao déng vA g due goi li ty le tig bo cong nghe ms rang lao dong. Vi lye lugng lao dong L tang vii ty We n va hhigu qui eta m6i don vi lao dong E tang voi ty Ie g, nen s0 dom vj higu qui eda lao dong Lx & tang vii tp Ie nt, Trang thai dimg véi tién bd cong nghé Vige bigu thi tign bo cong nghe dati hinh thie mi rong lao dong lam cho n6 gidng nh su gia {ang dan s6. Cling nh phn tich nén kinh t€ bang ahing s6 hang tinh cho indi cdng nhan, trong plita nay ching ta phn tich atm kinh t6 bing ning sé luvny {ink cho mdi dom vj higu quit cia lao dong, Hay ky higu k= K/(L x E) fk tw ban tinh cho mbi dom vi i¢u qui vay = Y/L x E ) ki sin Iugng tinh cho mdi dan vi higu qua ‘oi nhimg din’ ngbia nay, ching ta vin e6 thé viet y = 1) tien hanh nw U2 Lim véi se gia tang {urban theo thai ian bay gid chuyén think: Ak = slik) - (540+ gk Phan ich cia ching ta ve nn kink 1 dug «tan 83, Phang tinh chi ra sy tiga trién ed Bigu thie mei, Lien qua hot Tuomg tu bi vi higu qué tang, den g- ude We dO.tié bo cong neh, Mah thanh vi K li hb cho mdi don vi hieu quai cia ao dong. New g cao, si) Larmg dom van va Kh uang tw bain cho mei don vj higu quit e6 xu hum gin, 112 Nhu duge chi ra trong hih 4-14, su b6 sung ti¢n bo cong nghg vito mo hink khong. {am thay d6i ding ké phan tich cia ching ta ve trang théi ding. Cé mot me cia k, kj hieu bing k*, ma tai d6 kh6i lugog tw bin vA sin lugng tinh (én mBi don vi bieu qua. ‘khong thay d6i, Trang thai dimg ny 1 trang thai cAn bing di han cia rién kinh te. Grn-gk sft) iat, ut vita dit co k si tug tr bin mai dom vi higu qui Hinh 4-14, Bua them tién bp cong ngh¢ Viee dua them sign b¢ cong nghe md 56 lugng dom vi higu quai do tin 46 cong rong lao dong voi 15 (@ g dnh hucng tdi nghé 6 xu hudng lam gidm k Trong han tich cia chiing ta theo cdvh het nue trang thai dime, dau we stk) logl trt se sue gia tdng din 56. Bay gids k duoc dink gid sir cia k da Khdit hao, 54 gia tang inghia la Khoi lvong tw bin tréa mdi don dn s6' va tiéin b6 cong nghé Wj higu qué ctia lao dong. Su gia tang cia Anh huéng clia tién bé céng nghé Bing 4-4 cho thay 4 bién s6 then cht biéu hi¢n nhu thé nao trong trang thi dmg v6i tign b9 cOng nghé, Nhu ching ta via thay, Khoi lugng tw ban tren mdi don vj higu qua k khong d6i & trang thai dimg. Vi y=f(k), sin Iupng tren mdi dom ¥j higu qui cling khong thay d6i. Mac di vay, ching ta cn nbé ring s6 lugmg dem vj higu qua trén moi cong nhin tang v6i ty Ie g. Bit vay, sin lung mbi cong nban (Y/L = y x E) cing tang v6i ty Ie g. Tong san phim [¥ = y x (ExL)] tang véi ty le nt Khi 6 tigh b9 cong nghé, mo hinh €6 thé gii thich duge sy gin tang ving chde cota mite sng. Neha 1, ching ta i chi ra rang tign b9 cong nghe o6 thé din den siz tang tung ving chéc cia sin lugng mbi cOng nhan. Mat Kise, 1 I¢tiétkigm cao chi «lin dé Ie tang trang eao khi cha dat duge trang thai dng. Khi ren kinh w d3 & ‘rang tii ding, 1} Ie tang truing cia sin loong mdi cong nha chi phy thude vio tién xm D6 13bbe cong nghe. Md hhinh Solow chi ra rang chi cé tin bb cong nghé méi gid thich diaae su gia tang khong ngitng cia mie sbing Vige dua tien bo cong aghe vau'sn6 tinh cing fam thay di dieu kign dat 6 tang {hit vang. Trang thi Vang duye dink neha fa trang tha’ dimg t6i da host me tigu ding {ren m6i dom vj higu qué eta Ino dng, Voi Kp lun twang tw nh da sir dung te dy hing ta e6 the ehting minh ing vie ding ten mi cam ¥ higu qua értrang thai dig cP =f (EN BY KE Tieu ding trang thi dimg dgt mae Wi da khi MPK = 8+n4g MPK -8=n +g hay Nghia 1, tai mée ty bin 6 trang thai ving, sim phim cin bién rong eta tr bin (MPK - 8) bing Fle ting tragmg cia tng sn Iumy (n + g). Vi trén thye 16, efe nén inh te tril qua ed su gia tang din s6 va isn b9 cong nghé, nén ebving ta phi sit dung ais kign nity d& ckinh pid xem ebuing ec it hay nhiew tu bin hm trang thii vane. Bang 4-4. Ty 1é tang trudng 6 ign bo cong nghe ing thai dirng trong mo hinh Solow véi Bin Ty 1é tang trading] 0 0 g nee ‘Tw bain tren moi dom vi higu qua Sin twyng tren mdi dan vj higu quai Sin luumg tea mdi cong ahan Ting sin luyng NGHIEN COU TINH HUONG a 4-4, Tang truing ta trang thai dime 6 My bay gid, sau khi dit dua tién bo cong aghe vio mo hinh Solow va ly gidi se tang tring ving eh eda mite xing, ching ta cin tim higu xem Iy thuyet eda minh o6 pia hap vi thue té hay khong. Mo hina Solow d bio ring tién bO edng nghé lam cho nhieu bin s6 dong thai ting len. Trong irang thai dimg cd sin tung va Ue ban moi Ong nbn dou Lang eting tye va tidn bo cong ngh. S6 leu cia MF trong 40 nam qua cho thy ci sin Iuumg va tr bin mdi edng nha eu tang vii tye gin nhuenhau - khodng ram, 14 Tic b0 cong mghe cing tic dong den gid nhan 16. Bai Lp 8(€) deus) chuwmg yeu au ban ching miah Flog trong trang thai ding, ttn lung thye t tang bing mile ang «cia tin 9 cong nghe, Song gid thue thre té eda tw bin khong thay di Nhu vay, ahing dy bio iy ding voi MJ. Trong 40 nam qua, ton lung thye t€ ting khodng 2%nam, in bing mite ng GD? thye t¢ teen mBi eOng nhan. Nhung gi : ing thu nhip the 16 eia te ban chia cho khoi lung tu bin) vin nb et icici 4.5. Tiét kigm, ting truéng va chinh sach kinh té ‘Saw khi sit dang mo hinh Solow dé lam £0 moi quan he gid ese ngudn Khe nhaw cist tang trutmg kin 16, bay git ching ta e6 thé ding ly thuyét dé dink hudng suy nghit ci minh Ve ehinh sich kinh 18, O day, ching ta d8 e&p dn bon vin dB ehiah sich sau: 1. XG hoi chiing t1 nem tict kigm ahieu hay i? 2. Chinh sich 6 .hé tie dng ttt kigm nhs thé nao? 3. Chinh sacl can dae biet Khuye' khich loai dau tw nao? 4. Chinh sich tie dong nf the nio ti t6e do tign bd eding nghe? Danh gid ty Ig tiét kigm ‘Mo hinh Solow cho thiy tu bin va sin luong & trang thai ding phu thude vio tj le ict kigm nhu thé'ndo. C6 mot tye tet kigm ta0 ra trang thai ving cho chang ta mic ‘icu ding vi phic li kinh t cao nhl. Ket qua niy gip ta tr loi vie d chinh sich «tow tien; tf Ie tiet kigm wrong mién kinh 4 qua cao, qua tp hay vita pl Neu sn phim edn bién cita tw bin wir kha hao lem hom ¢y Ie ting trueing, thi én inh t dang host dong i luong tw ban nhé hon mée trang thai vang, Trong truing hap nay, si gia tang ty H tet kigm eb thé din ti trang thai ding v6i miée tigu ding «a0 hon. Newoe lai, néu san phim can bien rong cia tw bin thap hon ty Ié tang truing, thi ngn kinh t€ dang hoat dong voi qui mhigu ty bin va ein cit gina ty Is tit kigm, DE inh Bi qué tinh téch laf tr bin cia mot quée gi, ching ta cin so sinh ty Ie ting ‘rucmg va ty sudt loi nhujn rng eda te bin, Vige so sinh nay doi hoi pha ude lung 1 1¢ tang trang (n +g) va si. phim cén bien ring (MPK - 5. GDP thye t€ cia MJ tang binh quan 3%/nam, née n > g = 0.03 Chuing ta €6 thé ug luemg sin phim cin bién rong clia tu bin nhiy ba naan 16 sau: |. Khdi luong tw bén bing khong 2,5 fan cia GDP hing nim 2. Khiiu hao tv bin bing khong 19% GDP. 3. TY trong thu nhap cia tw bin trong sin luong bing khoiing 30%, BF ils‘Nhin (6 1 cho bist k=2,5y; nhan t6 2 cho biét 3k = O,ly. Do dé 8 = ky = (Oty V,5y) = 0,04 Nhw vay, mi nam tr bin bi hao mon khoing 4%. Dé tinh san phim can bien cia lu ban ti nhen (0 1 va 3, ching ta cin nbd Iai ket lugn 6 chuong 3 ring tu bin duge tnd theo sin phim cam bien cia né, BUi vay, TJ trong thu nhap eda tw bin = (MPK x KYY = MPK x (K/Y) Bay gid thay ee con s6 rit ra tt nhan U6 1 a3 0,30 = MPK x 2,5 Diu nay him ¥ MPK = 0,3/2,5 = 0,12 _,,. Nit vay, sin phim can bien cia tr ban bing khoing 12%/ndm. Sin phém can bign ‘pag cde bin (MPK - 3) bing khoing 8%/nam, eao hon ty Ie (Ang truing Binh quin 6/nm, Ty le loi nhuan cao cia tr bin him ¥ kh6i luong tu bin & My hign thi 4 i Luong tw bin ign thap hon mac {rang thi ving. Phat hign niy cho thiy rng eée nba hoach dinh chinh sich nén tang 1) fe tit kigm va dhu tu. Tren thuc (, vige gia tang mic hinh thinh tw bin nhieu nam | nay 1a. mt wu tien cao trong chinh sich cia Mj. Thay déi ty 18 tiét kigm Chih sich cia nha nude tée dang ti tet kitm theo hai eich: true tig qua tst kigm cong cong va gidn ticp qua cic bien phép khuyén khich tiét ki¢m tu nhan, Tict kigm cong cong la gu gia thu nhap va chi teu cia chinh phi. Neu chiah phi chi nhieu hon thu, sé din ti thm hut ngin sich va mae tit kim am. NhurdS thay trong chuong 3, tham hut ngan séch lim kin at dau tu, Khoi lung tw ban gidm sit do thant hut ngan sich la mot phn ginh ning ng quée gi chat len vai cde the he mai sau, Mit ic, néu chirh phi chi ti¢w it hon mic thu, sé c6 thang dur ngin sich. Khi dd chinh phi 66 thé thanh ton mot phan ng quée gia va thie dy dau tit” Tict kiém tw nhan cing bi dong béi mét loat chink sich cia chinh phi. Tu: Kong dave da vio minh Solo, quyet dk tt kigm cas hp sie dat re hace lit mi kgm demi: een Ut kgm cag eno tek aeinedee wh ‘ip. Ne tus cao din va thu aap ea urban La gdm it kiss heated Vim gi lot. Niu quy dn ta at thus cng hg Kou het ‘hut dave thong qua nhm Tam tng It va Khuen Bch tt isnt aan ee 16 5 ‘aha kinb (6 e6 quan diém khie nhau ve mie do phin ing eta it kigm tw nhén 46% v6i fahing bien phap khuyén khich nay. NGHIEN CUU TINH HUONG 4-3. Bio hiém xa hoi va tiét kigm Mot chuong trinh cia ehinh phi thuimg duce coi Li e6 ie dong dé til kigm ter jnhan la he thong bio hiém xi hoi, Bio hiém xi hoi A he thong chuyén giao cuye thigt ke dé duy tei thu nap cho ngudi gia. Thue tien lung dénh vio ngudi dang lam vige duce sir dung dé tri cho ngubi gid. 118 théng niy fim gidm nu cau dt kigm cho thoi ky ve uw vi bai vay c6 the fam giim mae teh lay tw bin, Cho nen, dé ching Iai se suy giim tit kiem do he thong bio hiém xa hei gay ra, nhigu nha kinh t€ khuyén nghi nén edi ech he thong bio hiém xi hoi. He tkéng hin ry 18 eh€ dO tra ki ban nghi hun - phan Kon nguon thu tir thut hign tai (te tien dong bio hiém) duge tri cho the he ngudi gid hign ta. MOt khuyCn aghj fhe théng bio hiém ‘xi hi phi duge rai srg roan 69. Theo ké hosch nay, chinh phi chuyén ttn thu cia the he dang sting va Lim vige vio qug tin thi, sau dé tra cd g6e Iin lai cho chinh thé fhe dé kh ho ve hur. Theo che do bio higm xi hoi thi try todn bo, su gia tang tigt kigm cng cng bi lai phian suy gidm trong tict ki¢m tw nha, Vi tic dong cia bio hiém xi hoi d6i véi tit kitm quéc din e6 J nghia quan trong hu vay, nén nhiu nha kink t€ di tim eich uée lung anh tung cia né. Song bing ching khong 15 ring. Béi vay, khong cé su nhit ti vb vige ligu bio him xa h)i e6 lam gidm tit kiem quo gia khoag vA néu c6 thi giim bao nhieu. Phan bé dau tu cila nén kinh té ‘Mo hhinh Solow dua ra gid dinh dom gi hod 18 chi ¢6 mot loai tw ban. Song irén thé gid thuc ra ¢6 nhigu loai tu bin khae nhau. Cae doanh nghi¢p tu nln Au tw vio ning loai tr ban truyén thdag nhur xe di, nh may Iuyén kim, va ede loai tu bin méi nnhw méy tinh, ngudi my. Chinh phi dau tu vao nhieu logit on cong cOng - duge goi [a cose ha tang ~ nbs ding 88, chu Ong, he thong tieu nude, Ngodi ra, com e6: mot lout w bin nda fa vin whim le - 6 Ta kim tite, tay nghe mit ngudi lao dong tigp thu cuge thong qua qui trinh gio dye va do to ti thd nien thicu cho dén khi tring thinh, cing nhu trong qué trinh lao dong. Mac di mo-hinh Solow eo bin chi bao gor ty ban hién vat va khong c6 géng ly gidi higu qui cia lao dong, xét theo nbigu phuong dien, vn nha Iye twong ty nhu tw bin hign vat. Cong nhur tu bin bign vat, né lim tng nang Iye sin xuat hing hod va dich vy cia chiing ta, Vige ‘ing cao von ahan Ive cin tdi nbtng khodn du tu vio gido vign, thu ign va thdi gian 47,Geet hoach dink chinh sich dang tim eéch thie dy ang tung kinh phi Ei yet vn de 1 Tai hin tw bin nto en thet nhit dot vor een kee N6i eéeh Te fot tt bin nto dem gi cho ching ta sn phim ein bien coc air acy chung, Siz nn oach dinh chink sich c6 thé da vio thi trudng dl phe be nnguibn tit kigm diieith dw tr khic nhau. Nhing nginh 6 xix phim ean bien seta ban oe a tien sin sing nhit trong vice vay tho li sul th rung de are i st clot bik die, Nhieu nha kinh tip lug ring chinh phi chi can too as ha ari Binh dking” cho cic loai ur bin khée nha - ching han damn bow ring he théng. trang con bie wt cde dang twin. Khi do, ehinh pha eo aha ee vio thi ‘euing dé phan b6 tu bin mot eéch e6 hneu qua bin. Neu quan diém nay diing, thi ich Io\ cia qua tein 6 16 cao hon du bio etiam hinh Solow. Hon nia, mote jhueg ngoai bien Ién hon ede dang khéc. Vi eng ngosi bien cong nghe eao hon xy dng nha may yen Lamy ce int Phi phi tfah duve quy mo anh hung ngoas hien kinh t€ nghi ng@ thanh cong cia vin de rt Kh khan, ot dang ws bin ma ehioh phi nt het phi quan tam fa tu bin ‘cong cOng. Chinh he rune wong va dia phuong thutng xuyen pha quyetdjuh xem o> vay tién d8 ti try ho wige xAy dng dung s,cbu ong vi he thdng trang shaven es khong. Trong cue he ae tanh ct tng thong nim 1992, ang elt vin Cliaton lap lets ing nude My GRU a2 vo co ha tang. Ong aud quel rng mie du tea ee, co sisha, na fa ess cho nn Kinh ¢ how dong voi ning sutt cao hum. Y heey nay man fw ei su hung dng lin phe phin rong gid ede mes Lis Song tit e8 dew ‘ht tf ring vige tinh todn sin phém bin cong cong rat khd khan, Tur jualin to ra ok mhuae elt d& tic toin eho cOng ty oF hee ‘bin, trong khi ich ‘oi eda We bin cong cong phan tén how niu. {tutng ving chée cia thu ng méi cong nhan ' nbién, md hinh Solow coi tién b6 cong nehe 118, Ji bicn ngoai sink; m6 hinh khong ly zidi nd. Rat tiée ngudi ta chua bigu rd cae ySu to quyét dinh tign b6 cong nghe. same phép mién thud d6i véi qui trinh nghitn cxtu va tiga khai, Cie co an shin Ee ia nh ‘Té chite Khoa hoz Quie gia tro cfip cho cong tic nghién ctu co bin, ie) ‘cing, he Gi trinh bay 6 trem, nhing nguivi ding bé chinh sich cong ngh¢ lap tute ee Ph , NGHIEN CUU TINH HUONG _ 4-6. Su suy giim (7 1é tang trudng kinh té todn cau rong tng wa an i coh ow Anh ehh se pt ae 20 omg 9a a bi eng a 90 a tng ie kn ayn te hs Bie ye een tt gc ei 13 ang in ty 2.2 ag Con 17%. Cie mabe Khe ng ap pho pim sl te ty hte aghiom to Cie eng Wink nghion cd chi rng uy gi I tng 8 nguyen shin @sg gn sa ho hh gan shee Boat Hag hen si ee Fs oh Ie ug yl hn me hp mc i dame aha iy tw nhien Hay ky higu luc lvong fav ding Ii L, 6 ngs 6 vie fam fi, so nguti that nghign Hi U. Vi moi cong nhan dew e¢ vige lam hoge bi thit nghigp, nen -E+U Ge 133Lue ong, 1 dong bang tng clia $6 ngubi e6 vice vA thst nghigp. Ty Ie thst nghih nut ihien. Ty whiep DE tap trung vio nhing yu 5 quy6tdinh that nghigp, ching ta tno tye tug Ino dong khong thay d6i Qus tri chuyén trtrang thi e6 vige sang tht {higp dugemnin hoa trong hioh $2. Hyky hit s 4 Ie tive, we s6 ngut dang 68 wigs hung bi mat vice mi thing va 1 tim dae vige ime <6 ngubl dang ‘oat nghign nung tim dave vigc Him mi thing. Ching ta gid dinh cd hai 1) le mio Mong thay iva phan tch xem ching cing nhau quyet din te tht nghigy nb the oh gid dink ring quy Mat vigets) Hinh 8-2. Qué trinh chuyén tir e6 vige sang that nghiép Trong mdi thot A}, 6. moe a les dang 06 vige bi mat vige vd. mot te j ‘ngibi dang thét nghiép tim duce viée lam. T$ 18 mat vige va tim due vie tam quyét dint 6 Ie thd nghiép, New tj le that nghiep khong tang ma edng khong giim - nghia 1a neu hj tng {ae done & trong trang thi ding - thi s6 ngudi tim duce vige lim phai bing s6 ng bi mit vige. Vi fU 18 56 ngudi tim duve viee Ham va sE la s6 nguoi mat vige, hai con 6 nay bing hau: u (Chiing ta e6 thé bien di phucng erin ny dé xée diah ty 1g tht nghi hang ta i nghiep trong trang {2 dime, Hay chi J ring E=L-U, nghia li s6 nguii o6 vie bing lve lugng Ino dng titi s6 mgt that nghigp, Digu n2y him y 1U = s(L-U) Chia cd hai vé cia phuomg trinh cho L, ching ta duye E 14 Gili dé tim UNL, ching ta due u_is Lo wer Phuong trink miy phan énh oy 1¢ tet nghigp U/L phu thude vio 19 I¢ mat vige s va 1 16 kigm duge vise lim f. TY Ie mit vige eang eao, thi ty Ig cht ngh pedi cao. TY 1g tim duge vige lim cing exo, thi ty le that nghigp eng thap, Sau day fi mot vi du bing 86. Gia sit 19% s6i ng dang Ham vige bi mst vide mdi thing (s=0,01) vi ciew nay e6 nghfa la vie Kim binh quiin kéo dai 100 thing hay kho: 8 nam. Ching ta tip tue gid dinh ring khosing 2 lam méi thing (F=9,20) va ditu nay him ¥ mdi luet agi tit n ai 5 thing. Trong truing hop nay, 47 i that nghigp cia trang thé si gu tt mghiep tim eve vige p biah qui kéo ding Wi am 0.01 L > Ors 020 5 = 0.0176 Ty Ig that nghiep trong vi du trén vio Bhoing 5%. Mo hinh nay v2 6) I that nghigp twnhicn es vé dung nhien, nhumg lai 66 ¥ nghia quan trong d6i vi chinh sich cia nha nue. Bat k¥ chink sich nao whoa et gin (9 1 thdt nghigp ne nhién déu phat giim 1} 18 mat vige hue tang 3 16 tim dave vie Tam. Tucang i, bait ehnh sich mao te do 16 1 18 met vie hee 118 tim eee vide lam ‘iing lam thay d6i 118 that nghiép re mien. Mac di mo hinh nay o6 tie dung trong vige gin ty Ie that nghigp wii ty 16 mat vige va 4 Ie tim duue vige lim, nhumg n6 khong IY ii due vain dé trung tian Ta: tai sao lai e6 that nghigp? Neu moi ngudi du nhanh ehing tim duoe vige Lim, thi ty 1é tim due vige lim sé rit cao, va ty Ie that nghigp gan bang 0. Mo hinh miy ve ty Ie thit nghigp gid dinh mei nui khong dong thi tim duue vige lim ngay. ahung khong by ial duce tai sao, T-ong cde muc sau, ching ta s8 phan tich nhiing nguyen nhan gay ¢ that nghigp: d6 la sur tne kiém viee kim va tinh eting nhic eda ttm heme, 5.2. Su tim kiém viéc lam va that nghiép tam th Mot nguyén nbin giy ra that nghigp li cong nhan cin e6 thai gian tim vige lim Mo hinh edn bing vé th: mg lao darg ting hop trinh bay trong ehvimg 3 wi dioh ‘ng cong nhan va vite fam dng nhat wi nhav, do dé moi eOng nhan dew hodn toan thich hyp vii moi cong vige. New ditu nay thyc siding vi thj truimg luo ong cain bing, thi sy mt vide khong tao ra that rghigp: agua cong nhain bi sa thi s® tim ngay dduge mot vige lam méi v6i me Iuong thi true, oa 135‘Tren thu t€, eOng nhiin e6 hing si thich va mang Iue khiée nhau, viee lam edng 08 nhiing thue tinh khiée nhau, Hon nit, ede Ivong thong tin ve ngwvi musn tim vige lam va ehd Lam vige edn ting khong luon Iuoa tring pha, af kheip, si ev dng ve mat sda IY cia cOne nban cing khong dién ra ngay lip tie. Qué trinh tim kiém vige lium ‘hich hop doi hoi phai e6 thoi gian va nd Ive. ET nhien, vi eon vige Khe nhaw dO’ hd cic loai chuyén mon khie nhaw vi dem lai me huong kh nhau, néa nhng eong akan ‘hat nghigp e thé khong chip nhan cong vige du tién mi ho tim dave. Tink trang that nghigp do cong nhan can e6 thoi gian dé tim kigm vige Fim duge goi la dt nghiép tan thé. Mot one do tit neh tam thi ndo 6 1 en tht tone ia Kn t€ thay i. Vi nhigu ngeyén nha khic nha, eée loi hing hia ma doanh nghigp va ho gia inh e6 nu ci thay i theo thi gan, Khi hv edu vé ng hoa thay di nu eau vé Tao dng A sin xvi ra nhimg hang hn dé cing thay dBi theo. Ching han, vige pit minh ra tinh ef nha Lam gi nhu edu v8 miiy cht, dln Gist pidm sit hu ed ve lav slong ci ede cong ty sin xuat may eh. Dag thd, dgw nay Ini fam tang mh caw ve tao dongtrong nganh edng nghigp dig tc. Twn. ty, do ese ving ke nhau sin aut hing haag hia khic nhau, nhu cu vé lao dong e6 thé tang & ving nay, trong khi gid «ving Khe. Su gia tng gis du es thé fam cho nhu chu la dong ting 0 ee bang si xuit sv mv nr Tech Dat va gm @ ede bang sin xutt O10 nh Misi-gin. Cae ni kinh t€goi su thay di tong ex ea nh cu gia ede nginh hoe ving Is dich chuyén gia cdc ngdnh. Vi su dich chuyén gitta cde nginh thudng xuyén xy ravi vi ‘cong nhan An e6 thai gian dé thay déi nginh nghé cia minh, nén that nghi¢p tam théi two Tuo nt Su dich chuyén gida ede ngdnh khong phai Id nguyen nhan duy nha tora si mat vige va thit nghigp tam thoi. Cong nha e6 thé bit ngerbi mat vige khi cae doanh nghigp ‘i ph sin, khi ket qua lao dng cia ho khong ehtp nhan duye boge kh nguti ta khong ein (6 ehuyes mon cia ho. Cong nhin cing c6 thé bo vige dé thay di nein nghe hhoge ehuyén t0i ving kiie eta dit nue. Khi cung va edu ve lao dong ciia ee doanh rnghigp thay dd, that nghigp tam this 1a dit khong thé tri Khoi Chinh séch cla nha nudc va that nghiép tam th Nita chinh sich cia nha nu tim eich ct gim ty fe that mghigp tw nhién thong qua vige ha thap ty Ie that nghiep tam this. Cie chucmg trinh day nghé eta nh nu \duge hoach dinh dé tao thuan ii cho si chuyén di eda cong nhan tir nghah cong nghigp dang bi co lai sang ede nganh tang trudng mann. Vige ee chuong trinh nay lim gid 118 that nghigp tw nhién dén dau edn tay thude vio kis mang lim tang ty 1é tim duge vige Fim. ‘Trong khi d6, ee chuong tinh khie cia chi (Fe thst nghigp tr nhign, Mot trong cf phi do; Khi fai win tigp Lam tang cebwong tinh nhu thé la bdo hiéin that nghigp. 136 Theo chuung trink nay, cong aban that nghigp e6 thé nan cuve mg phn tien twong cia minh trong mot thi ian nhit dinh sau khi mt vige. Mee di ede quy dinh oy thé” cia chuong trinh nay thay di hang nam va khong hod toin gidng nhau gita cée bang, hung néu tinh bin quan, mot cdng niin tham gia bio hiéin that aghigp & My nan dave 50% s6 lung truve day anh t kigm duye trong 26 twin. O nhitu nude chau Au, ‘churong trinh bao hiém that eghigp tham chi edn hio bigp hon, ‘Thong qua vige Lim giim nhe khé khan kinh t€ cia ngwi bj thét nghigp. chuemg tinh bio him that nghiep am tang quy mo thit nghigp tam thoi va Gy 18 Ue nhien, [Nguri that nghigp nan duce tra ep bio hiém that nghigp s¢ chu it sic ép hon trong vige tim kigin vige lam mdi va rat e6 kha nang hy khong mucin chap nbgn nhiag cong vige khOng hap din. Ditu nay fam gidm ty 1g tim duge vige “Am. Ngodi ra, Bhi ky ket hop dong lao dong, cong nhan khong mudn ky hp dng dai han, vi ho biet ring chong (rin bio hiém that nghigp ddim bio mot phan thu ahap eho v9. Dieu niy Fam tang ty le mat wige. Ki luan bao hiém that aghigp Lam tang 1 tht nghigp ty nie khong e6 neha 1a chinh sich miy khéng nén 2. Chuug tin bio im tht nghigp et Ig & eh m6 Tam iim tinh bak dinh ve thu nbap eda cong nhan. Ngoai ra, vie cho phép cong nhan ti hoi nhng vige {im khong ip dn, wo digu kign cho cong nhan vi vige lam e6 thé phi hop wi nhaw hon. Vige di gid chi phi va ih loi eda ese he théng bio nigm tht nghiep Khe nhaw 1a mot nh-ém vu kh6 khan va tigp tye fa chit de due nhieu ngudi aghién ci Céc nba kinh t€ nghien edu bio hiém that nghigp thudng khuyéa nghi' dudng Ii ci cich he thong ay, nh Lam giém quy mo that nghiep. Khuyén nghi kh phé big 1a you ctu doanh nghiep sa thii cOne nhan phi tri toin 9 try cp thYt nghigp cho ho. He thong nhur vay duye goi Id he thong bt chiu 100%, vi so tien doanh ngai¢p pha ‘ndp bao hiém x4 hoi phin nh mite t6n that ma cong nhan phi ehiu Khi bj thet nghiep. Haw het cde chuong trink bign nay deu La he thong bdr chu ndt phan. Tite Ih khi ede doanh nghiep sa thii cong nfan, ho chi phai ti mot phitn try ep that nghigp cho cong ‘han; phitn edn Iai duve liy ra tir ede khoda thu chung cia chuomg sinh, Vi chi phi ‘ri mot phiin t6n that do nk trang that nghiép tao ra, ho sin sing sa thi edng nhan ‘khi nhu cau cia ho vé lao dng tam thi thip. Tuy vay, bign php cai eich duge khuyén ‘gh d& gop phn Fim gidm tinh trang sa thai tm thoi tra lan, NGHIEN CUU TINH HUONG SL. That nghigp-G Anh gita hai cuge chién tranh Gitta The chign 1 va II, nude Anh phi chiu méec that nghigp cao kéo dai. Tu nam 1920 dén 1938, ty Ie that ngkigp & Anh binh quan Li 14% va chua bao giv gidm xuong, ui 9%, 8 137Hai nhitkinh t€ Daniel Benjamin Levis va Kochin eho ring nguyén nhin cia ty Ie Usit nghiep eao niy phan lin Ia de cite khosin tro ep that nghigp hio hip tai Anh. He cura ba bang ching dé bio ve quan diém 6, The mbit, trong thi ky nay, sw gia ting tra esp thit nghigp & Anh dién ra slong thsi vi sy gia ting ty Ié that nghi¢p trong mien inh 16. Thi hai, thanh nign, nhing ngedi khong hote chi nhan due rit it iro ep that nghign, €6 ty Ie that nghiep tha hon nhidu so véi ngubi Ién tdi. Thi ba, khi tro ep ‘hit nghiep cho phu nf cd chidng bi e4: giim vao nim 1932, ty Ie that nghigp eta ho igiim ding ké so voi nam ii. Ca ba bing ching nay cho thay 66 mdi lign he gida tre ep that nghigp va ty Ig that ngbiep. Cich If gidi ren day v8 tinh tang that nghigp & Anh gia hai cude chic tranh gay nhitu tranh efi gita ee nha kinh t€ aghien eitu ve thdi ky ny. Mot khé khan trong vite Iy gidi bing chimg a s6 lieu v3 tro cp that nghigp va ty Ie that nghigp c6 thé phan na hai moi quan he khée nhau ~ m0t e6 tinh chat kink t€, mot e6 tinh chit chiah tr. Mot mat, mifc tro esp cing cao, cing ci khi nang nguti that nghigp khong chip nin hing cong vige khong hip din, va nhs vay ty Ig that nghigp cng tes think vain de cchinh tr ep bsich va chinh phi bude phi quyét dinh mate to etp that nghigp cao. Bai vay, mic that nghigp eao o6 thé giy ra tro edp that nghigp cao chi khong phii nguce lai, Khi quan sit thay e6 m6i Liem he thue nghigm gift tj 1¢ that nghigp va tro ep that rngbigp, ching ta khong thé ndi chic ring di phat hign m6i litm he kinh t6, moi quan hg chinh tr, hay mot ket hop nao es gida hing, SO NGHIEN CUU TINH HUGNG ON 5-2. Bao hiém thit nghiép va ty 1¢ tim duge vige 1am Mot cich khie dé ching minh anh hadng cia bio hiém thtt nghigp doi véi su tim kigin vige lam fa phan tich xem ning kich thich kinh t& mi ngui that nghigp nhiin \duge te dong nw the mito dén ty Ie tim due vige fam cia ho. Dé lim digu ny, agudi ‘a ein xem xét s6 ligu vé bin than shiny ngudi bi that nehigp, chit khong phai 36 lieu ve 1 that nghigp trong toan ba nen kinh (8. $6 lieu ed nhan doi khi cung ep nhing "ing ching kh ly gi theo nhieu ech Khe mhaw hom. Mot phat hign rit ra tir ligu ed nn dye hurting bio higm that nghigp nea, xéc suai tan duye vige Kim méi eta ho ting len ‘ing ké. Hinh 5-3 chi ra mite d0 phy thude cia tj Ie tim duge vige lim vao s0 tun due hisimg try ep cdm Iai, Dinh nhuon ta diém 0 cho théy xéc suit tim duce vige Lam zi tang gin gp doi khi ty edp thit nghiep Khong con nda, Divu nay cho thiy ring Ki hong es io higm, m8 Ive tim ism vigy hm ea tng nha th nghi tang len hing ki Khi ngudi cong nhan that nghiep khong 138 Bling chiing khiic vé tie dong cia ede kich thich kinh t€ d6i véi vige tim kiém vise Jam duge bang Illinois tign hinh vio nim 1985, Newii ta 8 chon npdu nhien nhiine gui mdi dén xin hung bio hiém tat nghiep vi tuyen bo thuemg cho ho 500 d6 Ia 1éw-ho tim duge wige Lim trong pham vi 11 twain, Sau 46, 86 ligu nhim nay dave dem so sinh véi mot adm thir nghi¢m kheng duge busing bign phép khuysin khich néu tren ‘Thai gian that nghiep binh quan cia nhém that nghign twyén b6 duge thurmg 500 46 Ie 1317.0 twhn, so Vi 183 twin cia nhém thie nghigm khong duce thicing, Nhu vay, phn thuimg di lam giém thai gian that nghigp binh quan 7% va diéu dé cho thely o6 mhieh ‘ng lye hon trong vige tim kim vige Kim. Thir nghigm nay chi ra mot each 15 ring ing nhimg kich thict do he thong bio hiém xi hoi to ra 66 te dong i ty Ie tim duoe viee Ham, g 005 = on oo Xe us mb tn iin ag mot vide iy ae ee ‘6 ki cho nla ang bis in hi nghign Hinh 5-3. Ty 1¢ tim duge vige Kim Hinh nay cho thdy xd suit tim duge vige —nita, Dinh’ nhon tai dim 0 cho thay ¢@ lam thay ddi nti thé ndo khi quyén se gia rang dang Ké 1516 tim due viéc Ing bdo hig tat nghigp khong can Lam trong twain het han huang bdo hivin (Chui §: Koxing bi thien ton trong 018 tim duce vie lam eta nhing tin cud li mei ‘ic twomg thong ké. Vi ede ed nha rn bd mau diew tra khi ho tim dae vie lam. ne on 56 we tinh v1 I¢ thm due vige idm nedy edng kém chink xéc 5.3. Tinh cig nhac cua tién lyong thyc té va that nghiép ché vie Nguyen nhiin thi Fai gay ra that rghigp [a tinh-ciing mde ctia tim lwcong - hay that bai cia vige digu chinh titn tung dé eA bing cung cu vé Ino dong. Trong mé hrinh ve trang thii ean bing eid thi trong Tao dong trinh biy & chong 3, «én Inne eg Iethue té ditu chinh dé can bang cung elu. Tuy nbisn, ttn luwng Khong pha endo eng linh hoat. Dai khi tign lume bj mic mae cao hon mie Rim ean bang thi teudmg, inh 5.4 chi ray do ti sao tnh eng nhc ct itm tag la tno ra tit nghiep Ki én tome thu 1 cao hom mac Fim edn bag thi tring, lung cung. ve lao dong ‘in hom hug a bom a i TY le ang cung ung en wh) ‘Minh 6-1. $6 ligu lich sir vé lam phat va ty 1é tang titn te Trong biel ds moi quy gia 18 tang rd '@ vd lam phar, mdi dicin bidu thi mee ‘hap kj. Truc oan biéw di 1¥ 18 tang cung ting én ré binh quan trong 10 nam (tink theo Mz) vé true tung bie thi 0 1é ‘am phd bin quan (tinh theo chi sé dieu chinh GDP. Mat lien he naong. quan ‘hun gita 0518 tang tid t€ ve lam phat 1a bang ching cho 104 tien dean cia ty shave 56 lug rang 1 e ting tén té cue in dén 15 18 lam phat cao. inh 6-2 xem xet ching mot wn de da tren 5 lgu qui 8. NG bigu gn Ie Lam rh binh cuan va ty Ie tng tien te binh quan tung thap ky 1980 6 34 nude. Met tne sam a a Bela oy 1 tg tin 1 v8 am phat kh 16. Nhimg nude e6 1 Te ang ung ting titmt8 thi, lam phat eting e6 xu hing thip, 168 Digi thi 18 18 lam phrdt bin quatn (tink Nou xem sé ligu hang thing ve ty 1¢ tang tien t¢ va lam bit, chi khong phi 56 ligu trong c4 10 nam, ching ta sé khong thay moi lign he tuong quan chat ché gia hai bign s0 dy. Ly thuyet tren v8 tam phit chi e6 tie dung t6t nhat trong dai han, chit khong phai trong ngin han. Ching ta sé xem xét inh huting agin han cia nhing thay {461 trong 6 luony ten t¢ khi trd Iai vain de big dong kinh tC trong phan 3 cia cud sich niy, 6.3. Thué duc tién : Nguén thu tir viée'in tién CChinh phi e6 thé thi try cée khosin chi. tieu eda minh bing ba eich, Tht abst, m6 6 thé tang mie thu°eie foal shué, ching han thug thu ahap ed nbin vt cong ty. Tht hha. n6 e6 thé vay ttn cia nia dan. Thi ba, n6 es thé Kim theo eieh dem gin fin tien, Ngvidn thu kgm duce bing eich in tien duge goi IA thué dae téén, Thust nga nay ‘66 nguiin g6e tr Gicng Php seignewr, nghia fi Linh chia phong kign, Vio thi (rung e6, 4 169Hinh cha ndm de quyn ddc tien tren Kin dja cia win, Neay nay, quyen ndy huge W chinh phi trung wong va day cing it mt nguidn thu ngan sich, Xi chinh phi in tien d& chi itu, mite cung ing tin t tang len. Dé hat n6, mie sane igen ting ai ety ra Lam phit. In itm dé to nevn thu cing siding au Sp dung thué lam phat. : Gost nin, 66 le ching ta chara thy £8 am pt o6 thé coil mot loa thu. uy inate Khong ti abn duoe ching ti yeu chu phi nop lon thué nay chinh phi hg in sien Kh n6 cn. Vay ai 18 nga nop lai thue lam pht my ? Cau ta ela nga en, Khi si ed tang, gi tri th t€ cia 56 ttn trong ti ban giim xing. Khi chink pin them mo s itn moi dé sis dung, n6 lam cho s6 in ca tong tay dia ching sen fém Bf tr hon. Nhu vay, lam: phstchinh I loi tus dinh vio s6 tin mt reo dang git, Nevin thu kiém duye nko vige in tin rit kh nha gita e&e nue. 6 MY s6 ttn ‘iy etn: thut de itn thug dui 3% nguon thu ed chinh phi. OY vi Hy lap, thus de ttn thudng chigm ten 10% ngun thu cia chi phi. © ede nusc dang ti 4 hot Wy sieu lam phat thue de itn thang Ii nguén thu chi yéu ela chinh ph = ‘Fabien, ohu chu in tien dé chi tie ta nguyen nha chs yéu gay ea sicu lam phi NGHIEN COU TINH HUONG 6-4, Tai tra cho cuge Cach mang 7 My Mi, hue dc ten khong phai 1 nguidn thu chi yu cia chinh phi Mp trong Heh ir can dai, nhung tinh tinh hon toan khic 6 thd ky eich day ha th kj. Vio dia hey eg ute a Lue dia (My - ND) etn tim atta dé i ta cho euge Cch mang, nhuag khi ming tao ngudn thu bing eich dénh thut bi hin ché. Do dd, Que hor che ‘yeu dua vio viee in tin gity 46 ehi tiew cho cude chicn anh Mic 49 ph thude cia Qué hoi vio thué dic tin ngiy cang tang. Vao nim 1775, {tans tien Ine dia moi pst hinh & MY vio Khoing ein 6 tieu 9 la. Sei hang nyc Kang len én 19 trigu d0 Ia vio nam 1776; 13 teigw d6 la nim 1777; 63,4 tnieu do In ‘nam 178 va. 124,8 trigu d6 ta nim 1779, hong 66 el ding ngac nhien i su gia ting cung dng itm t¢ nhanh nh vay 4% din dn lam phat trim trong. Vio cus chign tanh, gid ving “ih bang dng do fe Ine aie Fane on 100 fan so wi mc vai nim tute dS, S6 lung fen Iue dia King 1d any 68 the cho dong dot tye dia gh nhw kong cbn gia tr. Neay cd ngay nay, thaah nat "et nhu dong ttn le da” vin due dng a8 chi mot vat e6 gid tthe 16 170 6.4. Lam phat va lai suat ‘Cho dén nay, ching tad’ xem xé: moi quan he gita sy gia tang ten 1¢ va lam phat Bay git, ching ta sé ban ve moi quan he gita lam phat va Tai sust Hai logi lai suat : thye té va danh nghia : Bi kod ngan hang dem li is sir bam én et kgm cin minh vio mot kon gb Kang dem I st ing 96, Nis, bon vita Kd i Nl kg eg sul Ph ‘ 0 véi thir dim gi tiem mot nam true diy a : 66 nghia 1a gi. Tat nhign ban é Cau ti pw thude va quan ign "situ hn” 66 nga Cc 3 Iuong do ta nkiew hn 8% so vit rae day. Nhung au gi ci tng va vi vay mé le do Is ma due shang tom, hi se mua et ban Khong tng 8%. NEW A) I Jam phat fi $% thi s6 hing ma ban mua duge chi ting 396. Neu tj Ie lam phat li 10% sie mua eda ban tham chi da gm 2%, ching ban da gis hon 8 suit ma ngin hing tr I lat sud dank nghia va su gia sn ibs (Cie ni kin go ta 1 se miu ei ban cue oi fa sud ae t. Nui bw th 1 sus dank gi, th Hi sua the € va mL am pit, thi mi quan he gia 3 big way 6 thé hur saw Lai suit thye 13 phian chenh [ech gia 131 sust danh nghia va t) Ie lam phi Higu cng Fisher Bign déi phuung tinh vé Iai swat thue t6, ching ta e6 thé thay Ang Iai sust dant: nigh 1a t6ng eda Tai saat thye tS va ty lé lam phat = icrte S4theo of goi fa trinh Fisher, by ten cia hi kin’ Phuong tinh wish theo eich nay goi IA phuomg trinh Fisher, Wy {© hoe 1 Fisher (1867-1947). N6 eho tty Ii gut danh nghia 66 thé thay di do ha sn nhan : do fai swat thye t€ thay dd hode do ty Ie lam phit thay di. thin 2 phn 1 eu si dé xay dung mo IY thuyéi ve suai thuc t€ dieu chinh dé dim bio su ea Vige teh Ii sust danh ngti swat danb nghia. Chuong 3 cho thay ng i Fey chi ea eng ie gay Bing dn et ir vb au LS thy ong chi ‘ inh) 1 lm pi Cn pong tinh Fer cho ching it cdg i at ge © 19 Ie fam phat lai vai nau, ehdng ta dave I5i sust danh nghia, a phe ng ta thy i ting ene s Lh gph i Fisher cho cing a hy en we dng tad apna hb, Thee tae sos a6 17)1% cua 1g nw cho 1 16 amp ; ! é lam ph ng 15. Theo phon nh Fisher, 1 lam ph ng 1% 38 ip ea a su dah neha ang IT t-te 19 Ie lam phai va lai suat danh nghia duce goi ia hiéu sing Fisher. . NGHIEN CUU TINH HUONG SSNS 6-5. Lam phat va lai suit danh nghia ‘Higu tng Fisher c6 tac dung nbu thé ndo di véi vige ly gid y nghia cia Ini sat? ‘Dé tri loi cau hoi may, ching ts hiy qua pee iy ching ta hay quan sit bai loai sO ligu vo lam phat va lit sust Hinh 6-3 bigu thi bign dong theo thoi gi ia vay athe ng theo thoi gian cia Iai sult danh nghia vat I¢ Lam phit é My. Banc th thy ng su 40 nim gua, hf tg Fisher phat hy Mee da 16i. Khi Ie lim phat cao, I sustdanh nghia eng €6 xu hung cao. " Phan trim “Ty een 2h 1950985 19601965 19701975 1980 1985 1999 1995 Na Hinh 6-3. Dién bién cia tam phat va tai suat danh nghia theo thdi gi Hinh nay ghi tai suat dank nghia Yai sudi tin phi ka thang do Bj Tai chinh phat anit; vd 5916 lam phat (tinh bang CPI) 6 M5 tr nam 1952, N6 chi ra higu Jing Fisher : Lam phét cao dy lai sudt dank nghia ten cao. Hinh 6-4 xem xét sy khiée nau gia céc m ia va ty stn 3 nnhau gid cic nude ve Ii sust danh nghia va ty Ie lam i ah inh, Mt fn eT amps di | Rin nia, lam phat suiit danh nghia ‘0 quan hé chat che véi nhau. Nhimg nude o6 lam ; Is ‘6 lai suat danh nghia cao. * ea 2 Li sus dnd nga thang l- ga) ' 3 030100300200 “TY lam pt. thang lg ‘inh 6-4, Lai suit danh nghia va tj 1@ lam phat @ ee nude Bid di hoi quy nay bitin thi Iai suit 1992. Hinh nay eiing cho thdy c6 moi anh nghia ba thang va 1 1¢ fam phir Tien hg twmg quan thug gia 05 18 fam (irong nam trade 46) 528 mabe vio nam phat va Iai suit dank ugha, Cae cong ty dtu su pts Uo bit et rb m6} quan he gia Jam phat va li sust, Vi str phigu thay J6i nguge nhigu vi 1 sust,ngudi ta cb thé Lim gid trén co sé dy doin chinh xée chiew hutimg bign dOng cia Iai sust. Nhibu c6ng ty & ph Uon thue mot sng theo doi hah vi ein Fed ahim theo doi chinh sich tien t¢ va tin we v8 lam phat dé du kin nhing thay d6i cia Hai loai lai suat thyc té : dy kién va thyc hign Ki ngudi vay vi ngudi cho vay thia thuin mot mic Lai suit danh nghia, ho khong biet tj 1¢ lam phat sé 18 bao nhieu trong thoi gian vay ng. Do d6, chung ta cin phan biet hai Ki nigm Iai sustthye t6 lai swat ma ngudi cho vay va di vay dg kién khi cho vay, oi 18 di sudt chu £€ de kien, vi lai sua thye t€ duge thc hien teen thuc 6, gol 1 lai suai the t€ thuc hier. Mie di ngudt vay va sho vay khong thé diy dosin mot ech chde chin lam phat trong tuemg Iai, nhumg ho cd mot kY vong no do ve ty I¢ lam phit. Hay ding dé biéu {thi gj 1 lam phit thye hign trong (wong lai va x® biGu thi KY vong v8 lam phét trong (urong lai, Mie Li sust thue 0S dy kit 1a i - a cdm Hai sud thye t8 thue hign Ia i - 13Hai mie Ii sust det nay kde nhau Khi mac lam phitthue tx khe me om phit car kign Sur phan biet gida fam phat thue t va dy kién dnt: huimg dn hiew ding Fisher nhs treiho.? RO rang, lam phit danh nghie khong thé digu chinh Uéthich dng véi lam phat the hign, vi khong ai biet lam phat thye hign 13 bao ahieu Khi quy dint Iai sutt doch unis. Lai sutt danh nghia chi ¢6 thé dtu chinh dé thich ding voi fam phit du kien Higu tng Fisher 66 thé big thi chinh sie hon duct dang sult thue t€ du kién« bj quy dioh béi trang thc-edn bing ten thi xing hing ha Vi dich va, nhu di tein bay bang m6. hin trong chug 3. Li suit danh aha thay di theo 1} 18 mot - mot voi nhiing thay di trong ty t¢ lam phat dr kien 2° NGHIEN CUU TINH HUONG 6-5. Li Suat danh nghia trong thé kj mudi chin Mie di 30 lieu gn day cho thay e6 moi quan he thudn gida 1a sust danh neha va 1 lam phat, song dieu db khong phi bao gi cing ding. Theo s6 leu thu thip vee who cui the ky 19 va day the ky 20, li sult danh nghia cao khong di kem tj Te loon hit cao, Vige khong xudt higm bat ky higu ting Fisher nto trong thoi kj nay di gy ‘81101 cho 1 Fisher. Ong cho ring fm phit di "lim ebo ct thwomg gia bi bat ng Mac db Khong truc tigp quan sit duve ky vong, nhumg ching ta e6 thé ude luong ching bing ech xem xét mic do dei dng cia lam phi. Trong thoi gian yan day, lnm Phil thutmng kéo dai: kh n6 cao vio mot nim ndo dé, thi né cd xu hung ety cao van Tar gau ds. Bi vay, ki oi ngui quan sit thy lam pit cao, thi dieu hoan toan hop {y lho dur kien lam phat s& cao trong tung lai. Neue Iai, trong thé’ kj 19, Kit eh ry ~bin vi vang 66 higu Iue, lam pht thudng khong kéo dai. New lam phat e ‘nam, thi vao nam sau d6 lam phat ed thé cao, nhuny ‘ea0 khong him, Bia bi bat nga". 174 6.5. Lai sudt danh nghia va nhu cau vé ti LJ thuyét s6 lugng dua tren ca sham chu dom gin ve tien t¢: #6 gid dinh ahu cds ve 80 du tign (@ thue tej Ie thusn vii thu nhip. Mjc di 1y thuyet so luung {2 dién xust phat tt khi phan tfeh vai eda tién , nhung n6 chia phai la tét ed. 6 day, chins ‘4 bd sunig mot chan t Khiie quyét dinh lung chu v8 tit te 18 lai suat danh nghia, cai iit tién Titn mi ban gid trong vi khong mang Iai thu nhap. Thay vi gid tién, neu ban si: dung no dé mua crii phicu chinh phii hoae giri vio tai khodn tiét kiém, bin sé thu duoc ‘ai suit danh nghia. Lai suat danh nghia fa cai ma ban da bi qua khi gid tidn chi kho {sid tii phigu: né ehinh La chi phi choi cba vice git tien. Mot eich khiée dé thay duge c4i gid cia vide git ttn bang tai sutt danh nghi 50 sinh Ii tte thue 1 eta ede loai tai sin Khiic nhau. Tai sin khong phii tite, ching ‘han trai phicu ch'nh phi, ¢6 loi tite thu tt 12 r, Tidn ef loi tie thu t ey kign la —n° Mi id tricia no gikim ding bang ty Ig lam phat. Khi gid tidn, ban tir bi phiin chénl {ech gitta hai loai thu nhap nay. Do 46, edi gid cia vige git tign lar - (-n°), va theo phuong trinh Fisher dé 18 lai suat dank nghia. Cing nhu lueng ctu vé binh my phy thude vao gi bénh mj, luong cu ve titn 1¢ hu thude vio gid cia viée if tién. Do 46, nhu chu v8 sb du tign «thu tf pha thude ed vic ‘thu nhdp va lai suit dash nghia. Ching ta viet him cau wing quat vé ttn nhur sau (MIP) = Lai, Y Chir edi L duge st dung dé biéu thi nhu chu ve titn t, vi titn 1 tai sin dé thanh ‘xin «tic thi sin dé sir dung dé thye hign ede giao dich. Phuong trinh nay noi ring nhu clu tien t¢ thye t 1a. mot him ca thy ahap va lai sudt dank nghia. Mac thu nhip Y ing cao, nhu cau ve s6 dur thye t cing lén, Lai suit danh nghia i cing cao, nhu cau ve s6 dw thuc t€ cing thip, ‘Mite cung tmg tién t8 tuong Iai va gia cd hién tai Him chu vé tign «¢ dang ting qust ndy ath huimg ti IY thuyCt eda ching ta ve ‘mie gid nhur the 80? Trude het, hay tao ra sy bang nhau gid cung va elu vé ttn thue t© MIP vi L(Y); MIP = Lii¥) Sau dé, sit dueg phuong tinh Fisher dé bigu thi suit thye t€ va lam phit dy kién: MiP = Lr + 2, Y) qe 175 suat danh nghia bing tng ciaPhuorg trinh niy chi 7 nhu chu ten 1 thue Wf phy thude vito ty 1¢ lam phat di kin Phuong tinh tng quit ciia nhu clu tit chi ra ay dis hom IY thuyét s6 hang ve ua trinh xtc dink mie gid. Ly thuy¢t s6 luong tin t¢ n6i ring mic cung king tién te hign ti quyet dinh mie gid hign tai. Ket ludn nay chi dng mot phn: neu ai sus danh va sin ling duge git @ mite khong déi, mic gid sé bin dong ty 16 thuin véi ccung ting tiém (, Song Iai suat danh nghia tai khong c6 dink, m6 phu thude vio lam, phat du kisn, trong khi ty 1¢ lam phit du kien loi phu thude vio ty Ié tang tign t@. Str bign diem cia Bi suat danh ghia trong ham clu v8 ign t¢ ta0 them mot kénh mi qua 49, cung tng tien 1¢ tic dng vio ine gic. Phuong trish nu clu ve tidn te tng quat niy ngy ¥ eng mite gid Khong chi phy thude vio cung dng ttn t¢ hign tai, ma edn viw mic cung tng tidn t¢ du kin trong tuong lai. DE thay duge diéu do, ching ta hay git dinh Fed cong b6 sé ting mic cung “ing tign t¢ trong tuomg lai, chit khong thay di ngay mie cung tng tien 1&. Thong bio niy lam cho dén ching dy kién cung dng tit t¢ s8 tang va lam phi eding ting theo. Su gia tang ty Ie lam phat dr kign nay sé lam ting lai sutt danh nghia thong qua hig ting Fisher. Lai suat danh nghia cao hum ngay lap te Kam gidm nhu ciu ves du tit, '¢ thyc 16. Vi lung tion chu thay déi, sw suy gkim cia nhw ch ve si due thue t€ din dé mite gid cao hon. Do vay, mic cung dng tign t¢ di kien cao hom trong. tum la Tam tang gid 8 hign tai, Anh huimg cit tign t@ di vai gi ed twong di phite tap. Phin phu Iue eiba chuune nay sé trink bay mei quan he tofn hoe lign kot me gid vi Khoi Ime tien te hin tai ‘A tung lai. Ket lua rit ra tr phn tich d6 La: mie gidphy thud vio sé binh quin sia quyén via mife cung dmg tign t¢ hign tai va mc cung ting tien te de kig sé phd bien trong tong Iai Lam thé nao dé chan dimg siéu tam phat Su nhay eim cia nhu cau v8 tién t¢ thu t€ wii Ii sust danh ghia im phite tap them vain d® chan ding si¢u lam phat. New Ly thayét sé luyng hoin toan ching va fai suit danh nghia khong tie dong dén nhu edu ve ttn t, thi vige chan dine sicu lam ait iri ner dé ding: ngan hing (rung ung chi cia ngimg in tién. Ngay lip te, mic ‘ung ting titn tes dn dinh vA gid e& cing én dinh Nhung au ahu chu ve tin (¢ phu thud va Iai suat danh ghia. tht vige chin ding ‘i¢u lam phit tr4:né phic tap hon. Bign phip eft gidm lam phit din deh gid ed eta vige gid tien gidm, do dé fim tang nhu chu ve tign t. Neu ngan hing trung ung chi ston gin nging in titn (him ¥ git cho M khong déi), si gia tang s6 du thue t¢ (M/P) uhal thiet sé faim gid ca giim. Vi vay, néu ngtn hang trung wong khong thin trong, shigm vy het sie don gin 43 chan ding siéw lam phat 8 din ti nh hinh gid idm 16 $8 Trong truimg hyp nay, ngain hing (rung wong khong dat duge myc tigu ei minh La én inh wi i Mr M —— Kamiya gan Hinh 6-5. Lim thé nao 4é chan dimg lam phat khi sé dur thue t@ phu thuge vio lai suit danh nghia cd bn dink, (3) Ladi sudt dant nghta i didu chinh theo ty 18 mst ~ mgt cing vi lam phat. (4) Su sut gidm cia Iai sudt dan nglita lam cho 30 dv thue #8 (MIP) tang vot. (8) Khi 48, dicing di eta cung ding rn te M phu use vdo diimedi eiia ite i vO eta od tle 1 MI, Khi xem sérnhng duedng lit ma cde bigh s0 rin 0¢ dit kigin phi di thea, ching ta ric ra dmg (8 chin sch evng tng ibn 16 phi thea duit dé chan ding wan phi. (1G phan tren ciing ta during di mong ‘mucin cia nie gid P. (2) Tip theo 1a 1¢ 16 fam phéenaiep tue cao cho dn khi git Ngan hing trung wong et theo dusi chink sich tita «¢ nde dé dim bio gid ed 6 inh? Dung I6i nao me cung ig tien t¢ edn di theo dé Kiem che lam phil ma khong «sly ra tinh trang giim pht?” DE ta li eau hii ny, chiing ta [hn te dud len, Ching ta hit dau bing muc tu dn dinh gis ca vi tim ra duimg di eda mie eung ting tiem t& thich hup vii mue tieu d6. Hinh 6.5 tinh bay 5 bute dé xie din duimg di eda méz cung. ding tien te |. During di moni mucin eta gid ed 6 tren eding edn hinh v8, Gide tang trong thd ‘ky sigu lam phat. Sau ds, chink sich tiem te mit pht huy tie dang va gi ed dn din, [NS eo cho wi thas 2. Tigp theo, 4) Ie tam pl Ky ici din it sr igu th te do ia tag mi fim wi 0. KTV 1773. Lai suit danh nghia i disu chinh theo ty 1€ mo - mot cing vi ty Is lam ph itu nay phi hop v6i hieu tng Fisher. Do ds, lai suét danh nghia eting cao cho den ki gid ci Gn dinh vi saw ds gidm xuoing mie tp hen. 4. Su gitim sat eda i sust danh ng! as ein viee wit tiem wim xubing 5. Vi bay wit da biet dug di edia mae gid P va eli sf du thye t€ M/P, ching ta ¢ thé suy ra dvimg di bit bude cia eung ting ttn 1¢ M. Kbi sigu lam phit ehtim dit, ime cung ding tien t¢ phi ting vot dé thich ting vii swegia ting s6 du thu t6. Sau khi ing tien 1 dimg la. 6 mie khong di dé dim bio cho gi c& dn dinh. lam tang ahu caw ve 86 dr thue «8, vi €6i ing vot eu ‘Mot vain d® quan trong mi phan tich niy chua dé edp dén 1 nigm tin vao ngan hing trang wong. Dé lam phit durkién vi 18 suit dant nghia giim xudng, moi ngudi hii in ring ngain hang trung wom sé khong in mbidu én nbs trude nia. Rt Kho tao a ky vong nhur vay trong thi KY sigu lam phi. Di mbign, néu ngan kang trung wong. fan theo khuygn nuhi cia ching ta va dot ngot tang mde eung tng ti8n 18, thi nd 3 thé gap khé khan trong vige thuyé: phuc moi ngus tin ring siéu lamp phit d& quar. ‘new moi newi Khong tin vio ngdn hing trung wong, lam phit dy kin va lai suit danh nghia sé khong gim, s6' du thue t khong ting, v3 str ting vot eda cung tng tien {@ 36 dy lam phat en eao ham, ‘Tren thue t€, ngin hang trung wong thuimg tim edeh tao ra nigm tin vio minh bang eich loai bi nguyen nhan co bin gv. ra sigu lam phat: nhu cu ve thué dc titn, Haw het eae etude sieu Lam phat déu xuct higa khi ehinh phi in tidn dé chi ticu. Khi chinh Phi edn cin dén nguidn thu tr thu dc ten, thi moi ngui sé khong tin vao cong bé cia ngin hing trung wg ve sy én inh gid c4. Do nguyén nhan nay, ede cuse sieu lam Pht thutng chim dt cing véi bien php cai eich thi chinh - gidm chi tieu ehinh phi v8 fing thué - nhing bign php fimgiim nhu ehw v8 thué dic tien. Vi v4y, mac dd tam phat luon luon vad daw eting li hicn tuung tien 1g, nhung bien php chdim dt sicu lam phat Iai thutng 1a hig tum NGHIEN CUU TINH HUGNG 6-7. Siéu lam phat & Bite gitta hai cuge chién tranh ‘Sau chic tranh the gici thi nha, nue Dit d@ tri qua mot trong nhing cude sigu ‘am phi ding chi ¥ hat trong lich si. Khi chign tranh ket thi, e&e muse dng minh Dupe nude Date phii tri nhiing khodn boi thutmg chia tranh khéng fo. Nhiing khodn ei sty Fam cho nga seh eia Bate tham hut kin va chink phi Bite phai phat hinh mot 6 td it in, 178 1 i 108 10" 5 ios a a cote : 3 € 2 0% wo E él z £10" cane ng sine ws 2 (tigi 3 Zoo to" Ege ot 10! 1 wees Nim Hin 6-6, Tien teva gid edd Bae pita hai cube chin tran ung ing tien 18 va gid ea mde trong hing vi du din hin vé tie dong cea hint sich in tid wen guy ano tin Hink nay cho tely tink ink cung dng (ie te va gid ed 6 Die wr ring 1119. dé 1211924. Su gia tang manh me eri Hiinh 6:6 chi ra Kho lung titn 18 vi mie gid chung 6 Bute tir 1/1922 sn 12/1924, Trong thi ky may, ed k1Gi lung tidn 13 va gid ed du ting vii te dQ ehéng mat, Vi da, gid ea mot ty nhat bio tr 0.3 mic vio thing 1/1921 tang dén | me vao thing 511922: 8 mie vio ‘hing 10/1922; 100 mic vio thing 2/1923; va 1000 miie vio thing 911923. Sau d6 vao mba thu nam 1923, gid e4 bit dau ting vot: gié mol tis bio fa 2000 me vio ming 1 thing 10; 20.000 mic vao ngiy 15 thing 10, mot trigu mie vio ngiy 29 thang 10; 15 trigu mie vio ngay 9 thing 11 vA 70 trigu mie vio ngiy 17 thing 11 Sang thing 12/1923, cung ting tien ¢ vi gid ed dat nbién 6 dink, ‘Daing li chinh sich ti ehinh da gay ra inh trang siéw lam phat & Dac, vi biga phip i ech tai ehinh di chan ding nd, Vaio eusi nim 1923, sé lugmg nhan vie chinh phi 1 bj eft gdm 1/3, ee khosn boi thug chigh tran tam thsi bi inh la va 6 thé gid 4, Dong thai, mot ng hing trung ung mdi (Rentenbank) da thay thé ngdin hing trun twmg ci (Reiehsbans). Rentenbank cam ket khong ti trg cho chi tigu chin phi bang eich in tin, ‘Theo phan tich Ay thuyét eda chung ta, vige chan dimg sieu lam 6 du tion t¢ thye t€ Hinh 6-7 cho thay s6 dur thye t€ & Bue khong giim khi lam phat tia tang va sau d6 fui tang khi Lam phat giim, Song tri vi IY thuyét cia ehiing ta, sv tia tang s6 du thue w khing xiy ra ngay lap tée. Cé 18 qué trinh dtu exinh cia s6 der the 1€ U6 vi gid eda vige gid Hien dim ra tet, Hose e@ thé ngudi Drie en e6 thi oe 179sian dé tin rag tam phat quai that d4 ket thie, do a6 lam phat dv ki gidm ct fin tag . phat du kigh giim chain how Ob seus 10 hag I sh) Ty a ng hing 000 ” a a 8 ee wo SE 0 rr wm is Minh 6-7. Lam phat va nbu cu vé si du thue té 4 Diie gia hai cude chién tranh Hinh nay m6 tai tam phat vi ni ci ve so die thuc 0 & Dite ti thing 111922 déin 1211924. Khi lam pha ang, 56 de tee a 16 gidim. Khi lam phat Két thie, so due se 18 tang. 6.6. Nhimg tén that x4 héi cila lam phat Phan tich via ching ta v8 nguyen nhan va tie dong et ati” dl nha va tfc dong cia lam phat chu dé cap nhigu 8 nhiing van ce x3 hoi do lam phat gay ra, Bay git ching ta chuyén sang vain dé nay. Neu ban tv 6 thé anh ta $8 Int ng dn Bn hg a am phi i mtv J xt ' 0 a pt a 1 vin x i sth anh gL pi nh rp "Ta ag ch ang wm ch ong ine yk ma he I nt a 64 my him nu kn e Kn pha avn de ans Tag Moy 89 kha nang mua duve phigu hang héa hen, cee ine ohanh, Nhung :ong ne des teen ea 36 N ‘ci sé khong tang s nhan cling Khong duoc tang tidn lume thue t¢ nhanh hem. News kim, mdi nam ho s& duce tang basing ft hom, 180 ‘Vay tai so tam pht ai fa mt vain ee x3 hoi? Phin tich ky. ching ta thay t6n that do lam phat gay ra khong 13 ring. Nhin chung, ce aha kind tS kbOng nhat tri ve quy tac oi ning tn tai xa hd} ay. Dieu Lam cho nhieu ngudi ngae nhien fa m9 s6 aba” inh «8 qua quyet cing tn that do lam phit gay ra khong ding ké - i ningt ket Tuan may cling diing di vii ty le Lam phat vie phi ma haw het ede nude da tai qua trong nhimng nam gin diy. Lam phat dy kién “Tratie het, ching ta bin v8 tung hop lam phat di kid. Gi sit moi thing git €& tang 1%. Loai lam phat dn dinh va biét trade 12%nam ny gay ra nbimy tn that gh cho xa hoi? “Téin that thi nt la tée dung gay big dang thué lam phat dinh vao s6 tién ma moi nguidi dang gitt. Nhur ching ta di phan tich, ty If fam phat caw hum din (6 Ii sat dab rnghia cao hon, do dé Fim gidm s6 du titn 1 thye t Néu bink quan moj nuvi gilt $6 du tién t@ thip hon, ho ein dé ngin hing ahiew Fan hm dé pit tien - vi dy, indi wan ho efi thé rit hai Fan 50 da la shay vi mgt in LO0 d6 la. Sw bat tiga cia vige gi it tien hum tg0 nén chi phi goi Ia chi phi mon gidy cia Lam phit, vi v éc dén ngan hang ohio an hom thumg lam cho giay vita moi ngwdi nhanh ching mon di “ein that tit hai ci tam phit phit sinh Ki lam phat cao bude ef doank nghi¢p ‘hii thay di bigu gi thutmg xuyén hom. Vige thay di gid doi khi cng t6n kém: vE {4 n6 di hoi pha in va phn phi exe eatald ani, Loai tn thit ny duge gpi TA eh Phi thue dam, vi tj I¢ lam phi cing evo, efe higu an cing phi in Is thge dom nhieu Tan bon, Logi tn tht tht ba eda ‘am phit phat sinh do ee doant nghitptrinb dtu chink si ca thutmg xuyen kh phi chiu chi phi thue don; vi vay, lyn phat eng ene, sr bi dong cia git twong doi cing kin. Vi dy mot doanh nghigp phit hank eatald méi vao thing giéng hang nam. Neu khong es lam phil, gid tung UC ci ni so vi mie" gis chung khong thay d6i trong ra, Nhung nu lam phit 6 mae (thing, thi ti dau mam An cus nam, gi taomg doi eta n6 sé im 12%. Nhu vay. tm phat gay ea su thay A6i trong gid twomg di Virén kinb 16th trum da vio whi tuwmg dd dé phan D6 nguidn Hh e6 bigu qu, néx aun pit din dn tin trang kém higu qua xs theo Bide lye mot 9 vi m0. Losi tn tht ett eat fom phi do Twat thé Sy ra. NhiBu digu khode eda lust thug khong tinh dé tie dng cla lama phit, Lam phat e6 thé Lim thay d6i nghia vu nop thud eda ed nbn, thutmng tri voi ¥ dinb cia mgs Lam Tus Mot vi du vé that bai eda lugtthué trong vige doi pho vi tam phat fi each xit cit thug d6i vi fai 8 vn, Gil sir hom nay ban mua mot e6 phic var mot nan sau bain 9 181118 vi mite gi thue t€ khong thay di, Ditu duimg nw hop ly ta chinh phis hong msn Anh thug, vi ban khong hE tang duns: thu nbap thue tt khosn dau tw nay 281 khong 6 lam phit, ban khong-phai nop thué. Nhung new ty Ie kam phat fa 12% ban dau ban di tri 100 do fa cho mét e6 phigu; dé gid tr thue « khong di sau mot nam, ban phi bin 6 phigu d6 wii wid 112 d0 In Trong trving typ ny, do khong tah én tae dong ea lam phi, uit shue Iai cho rang ban dei thu nhap 12 do la cho mi «6 phiéu, vi ehinh phi din tha vie phiin Iai vé wa nay. Tit nhiea vin dé fa ch {ut thue tink thu bap tren ea sisi st dank nghia v8 vain, chi Khong phi Iai thue 1s, Trong vi du nay vi ahicu vi du khse, lam phat dt fim bitin dang ede Khodn the i nop, Ten that thi naam eda lam phit fi sw bat tien eta eude sing trong mot thé pis imi gid cd thi truding thug xuyen thay di. Tidn 12 thuvde do ma ching ta dua vio 4 tinh toxin eae giao dich kinh t. Khi es lam phat, edi thutie ndy co gidn, Tinh-hinh 45 gidng abu truiing hop dom vj do chitu dai, khi Quiie hoi thong qua mot daw lust ay dinh 1 thie (Anh) bang 36 insu viv nam 1995; 35 insu vao nim 199%; 34 insy vio nam 1997, v.v... Mie di dao luat d6 €6 thé eit rmg, song nd rit bat tien, Khi NOt ng mio dé do bang thie, chung ta cin xée dinh xem khi do lutmg anh ta ding tHave eta nam 1995 hay nam 1996, dé so sinh chiew di do duve qua cic nam khde hau, nguidi ta cin diéu chinh “lam phit", Tuemg tx, dong do la 1d edi thie Kem tie dung hom Khi gid tri eda né thug xuyén thay di Vida, su thay di gid ed Tam do tan ec KE hose fi chinh cba ed nha Mot quyé! tinh quan trong mi tft ed ede ho zin dink phi dua ra li dnh bao nhigu thu ahgp cho tieu ding va bao nhieu dé tet kiem eho tus gid. Mot do ta tict ki¢m vi dt ta vél ene sual danh nghia e6 dinh sé mary la mot sli tte 38e din trong tuemg, lai. Ning te thu {© cia s6 do a ds - esi quyet dink mite soing eta ho khi ve hur - phu thude vis mie gid trong (wong lai. Quyed dink tit kim bao nhigu tr nén dé dine hom, nou gai a biet rang nue gi sau 30 nae wong tw nhu hig nay. NGHIEN CUU TINH HUONG 6-8. Cuge séng tron;: thoi ky sigu lam phit & Bol ia {Téa that do tam phat pay ra bo 19 8 ring abst khi tam phic dat mite eye ky eao BA bio sau teh th tap chi phd Ucn eho ching ta bist cude sing ra sao trong thot ky ‘cu Tam phit & Bolivia nam 1985. Hay chil ¥ den nbn t6n that eda lam phat ma ba bio niy nfin man. Ligu kinh nghi¢m cia Bolivia e6 phit hop vii dnh wid c 8 Keynes dai duse trieh & day chung niy khong? 182 ong peso bap bénh - Lam prat bing len dit dot Neudi Bot'via tap trung vio vige déi tien LA PAZ, Bolivia - khi Edgar Mranda nhin dave si tien luumg hing thiing 25 ti peso, anh ta king dé mit this gian. Ding peso giim gid hing git. Cho, nen, khi ve chy ra chs dé mua gao va my se ding cho 4 Ung, anh ta da toan bs peso cy |i di déi sang dd la 6 cher den, (Ong Miranda sitdung phuong esch Toi eaw dé tom tai khi sing trong Tony phat khiing khicp hat tren the gigi hign nay. Bolivia 1 tinh hudng Aé ching ta nghier cuiu xm am pst JP do chon vit hora sao. Gi ei tng nhanh dé mie Ht ah hong tuing twong dave khi xem quis fit. Vi do, tong 6 thing, git i «dQ 38.000%/nam. Tuy nbien theo cen sé chinh thie, ty 16 lam phil cite nam gos: 200%, va tj 1¢ lam phsit eta nam ry dy kigh & mike KOOO% - mae dt ede tinh tosr khie cho thay n5 phii cao hun nhigu fan. Trong bat ky truemg hep nie, kam phit ets Bolivia edng lam cho 2 trating hop lam phit nguy hiem khie Ii Lxracen (370%) vi i-na (1 100%) tr tinh ning ehis Hin bS nh Ac-hen- u a iy ra vi cia nyt Miranda 38 ta Ching ta dS ding higu duce ditu gi xiy ra véi thu ahap cia nga Mi nu anh (a Khong nen ching di tis thin doa. Vio medy anh tae tr 25 tri peso, 1d la gid 500.000 peso. Nhurvay anh ta nhin duge $0 dd la, Chi vii ngiy sav 45, véi 19 gid 900.000 peso, ank ta sé chi cd 27 dla ‘Ching toi chi mghi én hom may vA dit ei peso thanh do I", gm die e0n, ty khai thie ving, Ong Ronald Macloan, adi nhuy vay, "Chiing t0i a tri thinh nhiny con ngudithign Va dé ton tai, nbn vien nb’ nue khong tra lai gity ev md khong «di hd 10. Cée Iuat su, KE to:n vicn, the uéin t6c, thtm chi ed cic e6 gai diGm hu nbu eiing bi vige 4 try thanh ning, newdi A6i tien ten dudng pho. Cong nan 16 chit: het cube din! cong miy dé cude dinh dng Khée vi yep ea pism dc. Giém die bud Lt i antic ngodi, tfch ra ese khodn thug va cho vay gid mao - ho lim bit ky vige gi kicm do la-phye-vu cho mue dich du co. Vé dy: sin lung cia nginh khai khosing que doanh giiim tir 18.009 tin v8o nies hngosii xuding con 12,000 tin. Nhing agudi the mo kicm thu nhap bang céich Kin vit nung vien quing qui nbst vio e&p Fong An tvs cs ho, sat d6 quar doe mang hai ceie bang dai lap chuyén qua nude Por ling ging. Mic di khong em thige ni lin sity day hing nim Peru xuft khéu khodng 4.000 tin tide, “Chung toi kong sin wut ged, Tat ehing wi dew Babin kl dy etn” ‘mot nha budn thist bi hang mang & Las Paz ndi, "New tu khong cin biel cai gh tot, es xu nia. Chuiny t0i dl thin mt XAG; suy doi v8 dao de..." a IeMot digu bi mitt di due eding khai ma ai eding bigt fi trén thue (6, tl ed s6 U6 la tron thj trwimg chy den eeu Liy ti hoat dong budn nha phien bit hap php vsi MF, Bon buon Kau aha phien thu duoe khoding 1 ¢¥ do ta mot nam. rong khi dy, dit nigie chiw tn that nang ni vi kam phat, chi you do nguiin thu ia chinh phi chi di tang (ii 15% mie chi vi tham hut nein sich ehiah phi chicm 25% tng sin phim hing nam cua dt nave. Nevin thu bi tén hai do su cham {66 tong vie nop thus va thu klong thu due de nan tem ep va than ahiing tein lan emi te a Lam phat khéng dy ki Lam phat khong du kicn 66 tie dng nguy bam so vi bat Ky tin 4am phat da din, duge dur kigh tr use: m6 phan phi lai hain mot ‘civh de doin, Ban 06 thé thay dieu dé khi xem xét cic khodn cho vay dai han, Cae kh ude eho vay thutng qui dinb ri mite Iai suit danh ghia, dua trém eu st tj lam it dy kien, Neu lam phat kiie xa mute de ith, thi foi tite thue t thye hign ma neu tra che nguii cho vay kikie mite rit hai bea dy kign trae. Neu lym phit cao fam inte dy kign, ngudi di vay sé duve Iwi va nguidi eto vay bi thet, vi ngudh di vay trd ne bing nhang cong do lai gi ti hon, Nguve lai, nu um pt la tip hon mae de kien, nigubi cho vay sé due lei va nguii di vay bj tity, vi khodn ttm phi ta o6 gid ti eas hhom so vei mie hai bén ds dy kg, uit mio ela Vi du, hay xét truimg hop mot ngubi vay desi hinh thie eam o& vi ‘Viv thisi diém 6, tai sust doi vi hing Khodn vay edm e6 this han 30 nam la 6%/nam ‘Me i sual nity dia trén 6 1¢ Lam phat dy kien thip - lam phat binh quiin 10 nam true 116 lh 2.5%, Neu cho vay e6 thé di dy kien thu duge lui ie thue t& khoiing 3.5% va fpgit i vay dy kien phai tri mie Ii sult thye t€ nly. Tren thye t¢, Ie lam phat bin ‘quan G nude 5% trong this gian vay cm ed, do dé li suat thye t thu hign chi la 1% ‘Mic am phst khong dr kign dK li eho ngudl vay mic nam 1960. 1 ngui cho vay bj thua thigt Lam phit khong dir kich edn kin (6m hai nbong ngudi nhin hag hint e6 dink Cong nian va duanh nghigp thuimg thoa thud Ve mie Img danh nghia Khi cong nan “© hnmy (hoae tham chi ed true d6). Vi tuumg huv fi khosin thu nhap tr sau, cho nen ‘ge a cdg nhan di cho eie doanh pghigp vay: cong han eung cap dich vu lo dong bro doanh nghi¢o, nhung khong abn duce di thu ahip trae kh vé gi. Gidng abu Bat +13 gu eho vay nt, cOng nin bj thi Khi lam phat eao hon mic du kgm, Gidng nh ‘suit vay, ce doanh mghigp bi thigt khi lam phat thap hon mifc du kien, Ning tinh hung ny cumg exp cho ta fy 18 ring ehding lai lam pit bign dong 4 manh, Ty Ie lam phat cdng bich dong manh, tinh bit tie ma ca nguii vay va eho ay phi doi phi cing iin, vi phiin kin din eu ghér rit ro - hy Khong thi nh khong dy dosn diye do lam pit big dng manh gay t6n ha su bal tie = i nhs tea moi ng “4 New ed nhiing tie dong nay do tin bat teée cia fam phat way ra, thi vige I gh sao ede hop dong danh nghia li phé bic ahr vay Kx mot vain c® nan gai. New ta 6 thé nuh Ring nguts vay va cho vay ¢6 thé bio ve minh ching la tinh bit tric bang. eich viet cae hop dong dui hinh thie ede bign thye 18 - nghie Ia ap dung md chi 56 truot pid mio dé. Trong edie nn kinh ted lam phit quii cao va hay thay di, vige dp ung chi s6 truct gid thuimg ki pho bien; doi Khi chi so trugt gid nay dye van dung drs ink thie viet hop dong bing dong ngoai t¢ dn dink hon. Déi vii ahing nn kinh {6 66 mie lam phit vow phi ah MJ, ehi sO teat gid it duye van dyng hen, Nhung gay ci d MY, mot x6 khosin ng di han cing dp dung chi $6 trurt wis, Vi du try edfp bio higm x3 hoi doi vot ngut gid dupe dieu chinh hing nam dé thich ing voi nbn, thay d6i trong ehi s0 gi tieu éing. NGHIEN CUU TINH HUONG 6-9, Phong trio bin vi bac, cudc bau ci nam 1896 va my phil thiy Oz Viee phan phi Ini cia edi do nhimg thay di khOng du kidn cia mde gid thudng 1a nguin ge gay ra nh tang ri loan ve chin ti, eng han Phong into Bac Ty do vio cubi thé kj 19. Tir 1880 dn 1896, gid ci G MF gidm 23%. Tinh trang gidm phat niy 6 loi cho ching - cic ngin hing & ving dang bac - ahung lai gay thigt bai cho con ng - ede chi trang tai ¢ mign Nam va mién Tay. Mot giéi phip dye dia ra dé kfc phue tinh trang ny Fi thay ché do bin vi ving bing che do song bin vi, trong 46, cei ving va bac déu due phép die thinh tign. Vige chuyén sang ehé do song bin vi se am tang cung ting ttn 1¢ va chan ding giim phat ‘ain d2 bin vi bac da chi phi cude Btw cit Tong thing vao nim 1896. Ung eir ven ing Cong hos, William McKinley van dng tranh eir dya tren euwmg linh diy tri ch «lo bin i ving. Ung eit viene ding Dan chi, William Jennings Bryan la ing ho che «lo song bin vi, Trong mot bai dién van néi ting, Bryan tuyen bd, "Cie vj sé khong Him ng trade nbi thong Kb6 nly en agwi lao dng, cde vi sé Khong dng dinh loa gui tren eay tinh gi bing ving". Khong e6 gi ding ngae nhs, vi MeKinley ag cir vien cita phe biio thi mién Bong, con Bryan [img eit vién ci phai dan ty & mign Nam vi mién Tay, ' Cude tranh Iwan ve bac my duye mo ta dui hinh thie d& nbd hat trong eusn sich dank cho tré em 6 ten Mu plu thay Xit Oz. Cudn sich doe mot phing vign mign Tay viet ngay sau cude bau eit nam 1896, ké mot ci chuygn Vé Dorothy, mot bé pai bi Lae ‘i mig dit la rt xarnha Gi cia em & ving Kasas. Dorothy (nhiing gid ti truyer thong ‘ein MJ) Ket ban voi 3 ngudi: anh bi nhin (ndng dan), nguii teu phu bing kén: (cong nan cong nghigp) va mot con str ma tine gim vue qua sie manb cia n6 (William Jennings Bryan). Ca bn nguii cing nhau di tren mot con duimg gach miu ving diy ‘nguy nan (ehé dd ban vi ving) vGi hy vong tim duge my phil thiy, ngwi e6 thé dura 42 185Dorothy ¥@ nh. Cudt eting thi ho ci 18 161 due Xi O7 (Washington), nei moi new shin thé gidi qua nhing chige kinh miu xanh (tin). Mu phi thiy (Wiliam MeKink tim moi ech ching 18 fa minh ed ich eho moi nytt, nhumg thy ra chi ti ké lia d Vai d® ea Dorothy ehi due wisi quy8t kh em biet due sie manh thin KY nam tron 01 dsp bae cia minh. . Mae di nhing newb Cong hoa ci chic thing torg cude bu eit mim 1X96 va mus My duy t0 che do bain vi ving, rhumg nhing ngut ding ho eh do bin vi bac U3 ahr lage ef mi ho: mucin fi lam phi. Trong khosng thi gian bau ei, vang lt uve phit bign Alaska, Ue vat Nam Phi. Ngo’ a, ning nguti li vang d& phit minh ra phuoms ‘hip xyanua (eyanide) cho phép lay ving tir quing mot eich dé ding. Tinh hanh v: ang cung Ung tim te va gid vi. Ty nam 1896 den 1910, mie gi ad tang 35% Oe oer er Quy mé lam phat va sy in dong cila lem phat Phian tinh bay v8 fam phat s8 khing dy di néwkhOng ahiin manh mot thye 1 quan trong, nhung it ai iéu clave Fi: lam phat eao [i tam ph bign doi, itu dot ec ghia 1, nhiing nue e6 me lam phit binh quin cao cing eb xu huvng ed tf Ie lam Dit thay ddi in tir nam niy qua nam Khe. Y nghia eia Ket ludn nay La, nw me nunc atyét dinh theo dus chinh sich tign te gay lam phat cao, né sé phi chip ahan tinh ‘rang tym phat 66 nhigu bign dong In. Vi hing ly do chiing ta di thio huan 3 tee tam phit bign dong manh Fim targ-tinh bit trie U6 Wi ed ngui cho vay va di vay. bing eich bude ho phai phy thuge vio sur phin phai la eda edi mot eich doc dosin tren iy mo én. Loai tn thit ma tinh bat te gly ra cho ka hoi rt kho dinh gid, nhune hie eh rat kin, 6.7. Két luan: Sy phan déi cé dién Ching ta dkét thie phn trinh bay ve tién 1¢ va lam phat. Bay git ching ta hay ‘Quay Fai V8 xem xét mot gid dinh tren chét him chia trong phan tich cia mink. Trong chuomg 3, 4 va 5, ching t di ly gid nhibu big 86 kink tt vi mo, nh GDP the t, Khoi lug tw ba, en lucy thie 18 va Hi suit thye (@. Cae bitin 5 nay dye chia thanh 2 nhém. Nhoin th nb fi s¥ Iuog, ching han GDP thye t€ [3 ting kh {rg hang ha due sin xusit Fa trong mt nim aio ds. Nhom thi hai ki yid taome do Viclu, tga lung thye t€ ta gié tong déi eda tigu ding vi nghi ng; Iai sud thu th eid san Tung bien ti so wi sin tung tuumg lai. Ci al nm nay » sung vd gi {wumg doi ~ due got la ete big thice té Trong chuung niy. ching ta di shio sit ede bien darh nghia. Cie bith dan nghia luvs bicu thi bing ttn. Co nhieu b cn dank nghia: mute gi, 18 lam phat, tt lame ‘mA mOt ng nn duce (s6 dO La te cho eding vide dim). 186, Dieu nbin qua cs thé gay bat nu, chiing ta es thé Iy gid ede bien thye tf ma khong cin ti bicn danb nghia hay sy hign dign ela tien t¢. Trong ede chuimg trudec, ching ta di nghién exw quy mo va su phan bo san hang eda nén kinh tf rv khong nd {i t¥ le lam phat. Ly thuyet ea ching ta ve thi wimg lao dng da Wy gi tién Iuong thye ma khong can d° eap den tién Luong danh nghia (Cie nha inh tS got su tich ri vi mat Ly thuyet nay giita ede bite thee 16 va big anh nghia 1a su phan doi co dién. BS chinh Ia titn di eho Iy thuyet kinh té vi mo ed ign. Su phan dies dign 1a mot nhan te sAu se quan trong, vi n6 Kim eho Iythuyét kinh t¢ tri nn don yin hon, Noi mdt eich cu thé, né cho phép chiing ta khio sit ede bien thue t€ nhu di fam ieong ki bi qua ede bich danh aghia. Sy phan doi 26 dién xuat hign trong Iy thuyé: c6 dign, vi nhimg thay d6i trong cung ting tién té khong tée dng, i ede bie thu t€. Tinh chat vo dung cia tidn doi véi ede big thye t& duge go! Lt fink trung lap ciia tien 1@. DO: v6i nbiew mye dich - dae bigt khi nghién ctu ede vin fe dai han ~ tind teung tip cia tién 1 e6 thé eo fa gin ding, ‘Tuy nhien, tin trung lap oda tidn te khong mo ti the gist mat eich day da. 6 phan «daw chuomng 8, ebsing ta sé b3 qua m0 hinh e6 din va tinh trung Ip cia Wen te. Vice lam niy gp ching ta higu dude nhieu bign twomg kinh té vi mo, ching han nhang bigo dong kinh t€ nga ban, Tom tat |. Tit Ha khoi tog tai sin duce ding dé giao dich. Né duce sir dung dé bio ton {gid tr, fam dor vj tinh tosn va phuomg tign tao di. Nhu loai ti sin Khe nhaw luce ding fim tin: che do tidn hing héa sit dung mot loa tai sin cS gid tr e6 ‘hau Fim ti, tila: che do tién phép dinh sir dung mat loai tai sin mi chie ning, duy nhat cia n6 li ding Lam tien. Trong eée nen kinh t6 hign dai, ce ngain hing ‘rung wong abu Quy Dy tt Lien bang e6 trich nhiem kiém soat cung ung titn 1. 2. Ly thuyét s6 tung itn te chi rd GDP danb nghia g) Ie thus véi Kh Iuomg tien 4. Vi ee nhan «6 sin xudt va him sin xuat qui diah GDP thu 6, 1) thuyét 6 Jong tion ¢ ham ¥ ng mie gid ye thud véi Khoi lugmg Aiém Ue Be vy, 1S ang Khoi lung tim t¢-quyet dinh t I¢ am phi ’ 3. Thué de ti@n ta ngvibn thu ma china phil tad ra bing cach in tin, Né lat loai thud «tinh vao s6titm mi moi ng dang i. Mae di thué di ttn & Rew nt ce nde hong ching ké, nhung n6 thurimg fi aguidn thu chi yu eda ehinh ph mhiing nude dang trai qua thoi ky sigu lam phat. 4. Lai sutt danh-nahia fa tng cia Iai sust thye té va 4j Ie lam phat Higu ung Fisher ni Ping 1 sul dash nghia bien dng theo 4 Ie m6t ~ mot v6i lam pht kt, 5. Li suit danh ngha la (6a that eda vige gid titn, Do dé, nguii ta e¢ thé nhgn dink ing nhu cu ve tien t@ phy thude vao Iii suat danh nghia. Néu dking nh vay, kim 35 187hs fam pk 8 moi vp pv a dn he tng chim dit, " ‘fang nh 6, Tle inn ‘cua tam phit dy kien bao ism chi phi mon giay. chi phi thye dom, thist thy mt thy ag i, Bs dng do th iy a if oc vic chin lit nh ang cin lm it Ta tit eb gm pt soy Arkin Bs ph ph i eal mot eich doe don ida eh ng sen ne 7. Theo IY thuyet e6 Boi La sar phan doi co dién. naan Cac thuat ngit then chat Lam it Cung ting tidn 1 Situ mph Quy Du tri Lien bang Tene Chinh sich tion te 0 (On i Nghien vu thi trudmg mei Don vi tinh tain Phumg tign trao di Plaoumy trinh $6 lume ‘Toe dv tau thong tien te ‘itn hang ha ‘Toe do liu thong thu nbap eda tion 1¢ SO du tien te thye « ai suat thue-té dy kien (Chi phi mon gay Chi phi thye dam Cie bin danh nghia va thue 1 Phung trinh va higu king Fisher. Tid mat Tien gii khong ky han Sy tring khép abu ctu ign phip dink Tinb trang lip Ban vi vang Ly thuyét so luong ve widn te Ham cau ve tien «@ Thué die tien Li suat danh nghta thye 16 Su phan doi 6 dién tien we hue hien Cau héi 6n tap |. Miy fit ke ede ehie nang ea tién tet Tien phip dink fi gi Vien hing hoa 1a gi? 2 3. . Ai kiém soit cung dng ttn va bing 4 Hay vit va gai th phucng trinh sé lava! Ik Gii dinh te do lou thong khong d6i him ¥ gi? Ai nop thu lam phit? Neu lam phat tang tir 6 den 8%, dou ah xiy ra voi lai suit thye W vi danh nghia theo higu ting Fisher? dieu gi xiy ra doi vi 86 dur thye (6 khi sicu Jam phat ket rhc! Hay gidi Ligt ke tt ed ede loai tén that cia lam pit ma ban bie. va sip xép chung theo imife dg quan trong tren ex $6 quan dim cia ban. Bai tap va van dung gh Ba chic nang ita tien Ii gi? Nhimg thi sin dusi day dip dng vi khong dip ting, chic nang nio? 1. Thé tin dung, b. Bie tranh Rembrandt ¢. V6 thu dign ngim, Gia sir ban dang 66 véin cho mot nue ahd (ching han nhu Bermuda) ve vige nén in dong tién rigng cia minh hay sir dung dong titn cia "mot nude King gitng lon hom (ching han Mj). Hy cho bigt nung mat loi vit ha cia dong ti eve gia! SurGn din twang A vex ej ea 2 nue 5 vai rd gi rong quy inh ny khong? Trong chign tranh thé giGi thi hai, c4 Date va Ank dou di e6 nliimg ké foach sir dung vi khi tién t¢: mdi nude din tien cba nude kia v6i § dinh ding may bay th ‘xudng vi $6 lung ln, Tai sav day e6 thé 1a mt foai vi khi bi hai? Calvin Coolidge mot Ian di néi “Iam phat fa sy an quyt’. Ong musin noi tGi ditu i? Ban c6 dng § khong? Tai sao o6 va tai sao khong? G day kit niem lam phat du kign va Khong dy kién 66 ¥ nghia gl khong? - Mot ss nha ich si kinh 6 d8 thay ring trong thai ky bin vi ving, ving cuge phit hign nhigu nht sau mot eude giim phat kéo dai. (ghing han nbing ph hign ra ving vio nam 1896), Tei sao dieu dé 66 thé ding? Gia sir iew dong phy tuge vbo s6 du thye t (vi sO dar thue (#14 mgt phn eda cil. Hay chi ra Ang nu s6 du thge tf phy thude vio Iai suit canh ngtin, thi 1 1 cung img tien ¢ bay gir tée dong 16 tieu ding, dau te va li su thee W. LA suit danh nghia digu’chinh nbitu hom hay it hon tj 1 mot ~ mot so v6 lam phét dur kin? Nhan din ehgeh Khoi sy phan d0i 6 dign va higu dng Fisher my duge oi la higw ing Mundel-Tobin, Lan thé no d& ban e6 thé di dn nhan din cho fing trén thy {6 bigu sg Mundell - Tobin e6 quan trong khong? 189PHU LUC ANH HUONG CUA CUNG UNG TIEN TE HIEN Tar VA TUONG LAI B61 VOI MUC GIA Trong chuomg may, ching td btn lng ca v8 9 dv thye & phu thuge vao sh Ph eit, thi mde gif pho thude ed vio eung dng ttm te hig tal vd tang lr Lay wid ching tas xem x6t mot eich eu thé hn, De an gn hav mat tine Sa mite cho phép, cng ta thi nha dang tuyén {inh eta Nim chu ve tit t8 kh Ct ci ee bien si bu tinh bing logrt tr ohice, Love iu ve tien 1 e6 dang (Peet = pd) (AD it eta shes hnmg ttn 18 ta thoi dim t; px fa Lo-garit ede im {hoi digi t, va y {a tham s¥ phin anh sy shay cim eda nhu cau vo tit te i He lam phi. Theo tinh chat cia lo-gaeit, my - py Ia ldotrt edad the WEVA pet pe OF IE kam phi gi 4am phat fang them 1% va thii KY Va CHL. Phuong wink niy noi ring neu 6 du thu 1@ 93 gidm ys, Chang ta 2 st dung mt loat gi dh dé e6 dave hem ed ve itn & viel theo eich ad Tae el, ching tad bo qua tie dong eia sin hamg doi voi nh ci ve tee ek hie B ching a ng gi dink sin hamg khong thay di. Thi ha, Bing ede te y {eam nit chi khong phi 8 suit danh nghia vio ptung toh, chun to ‘ang gid aa isu thue t khong thay di. Tn, bing eich dalam phi the hee che {héng pha I lam phit du kin vio phung tinh, chung agi dinh eo au hice her hoon ‘nic, TA ed nhimng gid thict niy chi nhiim dom gin hia vin de sent nin sii phim wiah AL é big thins id 1a Kim eda cung ing fiom (€ higm Gai va twomg lai. Phuemg tinh AL es thé viet Ini ahw saw Pee hp me grap iw ay Phunsng tsinh ny ehi 8 mite gi ing ion thin tai va mie git (inh duse mie gis hea tai fs bin quan gia quyen eta mv eung i thin KS tgp theo. Thew each amg ty, ching ta tht ky tio vee Pere The mer apap me (an 190 Sit dung phuramg trink ny dé thay ps1 vao phuong trink A2, ching te danse y ¥ met + coy on Phung tinh may cho thay mie gi hign ta Ls binh quan gia quyén ein me ing ten 8 © eumg rg én ia ha Ky tgp thc vi me gd ugg ten © hn ts ne cag ten ee th KY th Ky sau U6. Toe ae gi ht byt 2 dae tn an per 14) 0 27h wea + t 143 (AS) MOS PY Tea !Bay git sir durg phucng trinh AS dé thé vio phuumg tink Ad, ching ta duve > > 1+ mgs ¢ —T mse + ss (A6) Ta ee ay way £6 thé € cich lim. Ban e6 thé tgp tue sir dung phucmg trinh ‘Tir day ban e6 thé thay due eich fim. Ban 6 ths tip tue i AA2 dé thay thé cho mie gi twang lai, NEu lip Iai ech Kim d6 vis [dn vo han, ehting, as thy duge ms] an ma + ES dey? ey o c ang tung tw. Thao phueng tinh wong d6 *." biéu hi sin vO han eds nhing s6 hang tung ty. AT, ste gid hign ta la 38 binh quain gia quyén eta mic eung ing dn ts ign ta vi tA i nhimg mie eung ing tia 1 trong tung | 1 aig lin + wey Hay liu y den vai tx cia 7, tham $5 my chi phi dd: nhay ciim ein sé dr thue te 4151 vGi lam phi. Quyén s6 la ede mi eung tng én «6 wong Iai gdm dn theo ep nin vy Le (+ NEuy nhs, vi #9) eng av ee quyén 56 im ahah Trong trudng hap nay, mide cung ting ttn t@ hign tai fi han 16 chi yeu qui dink mc i (Di ahien new y= 0, ching tae If thy 6 ung iene: me gy thud vi ceung dng tin t@ hign tai va efe mie cung tng ten t¢ wong lai hodn tein chong hit buy Sin hang): Net y én, hi YC + gd Bang 1 vi ce quyén 36 gidm chim. Trone twig hop niy, ede mite eung ting ten 1 tung lai ding vai tr quan trong trong vise i dinh micgis hien ta, Cuoi cing, ching ta hay ni ling gia dinh ve sw higu bist hod hio. New khong biel chic chin ve tng lai, ching ta-ede vigt him ei ve tite t8 nher sau mu = pe= = Epes = po (any ‘rong do Eps! 1 male gid kid. Phuong tinh AK nd cng Kae ph thus vo tam phe Ken Nun har ee Bue tung nn hd ae chira hg i int + > Ema 4 — Emus +. (a9 TT Tage EME Tg Ems to] 95 191Phiri tri Ad ni ring mite gid pha thude vio cung ng dnt higm ta va cung ‘ing tign 1@ dr kin trong twang. la. Phuwng tein A9 phir hop véi um phét. Khi si¢u lam phit chain 1 tung lai; digu nay 6 fim gi a 192 CHUONG 7 NEN KINH TE MG Kiang cé dan tc ndo bi phd sin vt chuomg mai Benjamia Franklin Ching ta wa thich nhitu hing héa va dich vu duye si1 xuat & nue ngodi. Cong ‘Gi thit bb Texas, ching te edn an of hdi cia Na Uy, di xe hoi sin xuat & Nhat eGng nohu § Michigan, vi di nghi d Florida hay & Mehicd. Ty do suat nhgp khiu “im loi cho dan cu cia tat 4 ede nuve. Thuong mai quvie € cho phép mbi nue chuyén mon héa vio mat hing ma minh sin xuat 66 higu qui abt, Fong thoi né edng cung ep cho moi ngubi hing ha va dich vy da dang hen. Khoi tuong thuomg mai quiet 03 ting len trong sus bn mui nim qua, lam cho ‘efe nbn kinh t€ ngay eang phu thude Min nhau. Hinh 7.1 bigu thi ahap khdu va xust iki cia MJ tinh theo phin tram GDP.’Bigu dO cho thay rd xu huing ting Ién trong quan he thuong mai vsi nude ngoti. Vio nhing nim 1950, nap kh chun dat mete 5% GDP, nhung hign nay di vaot qui 10%. a pine a 19501955 19601965 10701095 Ton ToRS Tom OHS 4 Hinh 7-1. Ty trong cia nhip khéu va xuat khéu trong GDP (*) Thuemg mai quoi téngay céng quan tromg dk vi wen kink 12 M3. Oe a3 Krve 193“GDP a ate mm Nae Hinh 7-2. Ty trong cia nhap khdu va xust khdu trong GDP (%), 1992 Trong khi thong mai quée18'cd § nga quan trong déi v6i nude M3, thi d6i vi nhiing nude nhé hon, thm cht day edn 10 vin d® song con. Trong khi thuong mai quoc t 66 ¥ nghia quan trong d6i véi nude My, tht day qua 1a vin d sng com d6i voi nhiing nue nhd hon. Hinh 7-2 cho thay ty trong cia xuit khdu va nhap khdu trong GDP cia 7 nuve cong nghiep Ion. Ching han, nhap khiu cia Ca-na-da va Anh chim khoiing 25% GDP. 6 nig nude nay, thuong mai quée t 1 vin d® trung tam trong phan tic’ va hoach dinh chinh sich kinh te Trong cée chuong truée, chuing ta 43 don gin hia phan tich cia minh bing ed:h Bid dinh nn kinh t€ khong e6 moi lién he véi nude ngodi, nghia la ching ta chi xem xét nn kinh t€ déng, Song tren thue té, cdc nude d@u xust khéu hang héa vi dich vu ‘Ching ta bat dau phiin 7.1 bang eich d® cap dén cde van && Ve tinh tosn, Dé hisu fuge nign kinh t mi hoat dong ra sao, ching ta phai ndm duge ede bign s6 kinh ti mo then cht phn énh su wong tic gita cée nude. Cée ddng nht thie ctia tai khoin thu nhap qusc dan cho thay vain de ndi bat Ih udng hing hda va dich vu chiy qua ese fa Khu quéc gin e6 m6i quan he chat ché voi ludng von dé tai tre eho qua trinh tich lay vn, 194 ‘Trong phiin 7.2, ching ta nghién cou nhimng yéu 6 quyét dinh cdc lidmg chu chuyén ‘quiet ny. Ching ta xay dang mo hinh v8 nn kinh w ahd va mid eta twang ng vi imo hinh eta ching ta v8 nen kinh t ding trong chuong 3. Mo inh nly cho bist nhing 46016 quy6tdinh Ot sue Fi con ny hay chi ng wen th rung thE gi xd chink sch {rong nue, ngoai nude tie dong ra sao dn lig chu chuyén cba vn va hing hoa Phin 7.3 ban we mic gid ma mot nude trao d6i tren th trudmg ths wisi. Ching ta s€ khio sit nhiing yéu (6 quyét dinh gif twong doi cia hing noi so véi hang ngoa. ‘Chiing ta cng xem xét eae yeu 16 quyét dinh mic gis duve Ap dung trong ira0 di gi «dong noi t¢ va ngoui te. Mo hinh cia ching ta cdn cho thay bio ho mau dich - tie ehinh sich duge soan thio dé bio vé nn sin xuft trong nude nam han ch’ sy canh tranh cin nurie ngodi - tae dong ra sao dén Khdi lung thuemg mai quiet vi ty gid Hoi dos, 7A. Luéng vén va hang héa quéc té (Ching ta bat du nghien cit kinh 6 vi mo cia nitn kinh t mir bing viee dura ra céch | akin khéc d6i véi qué tinh hach (oan thu nhap quéc din da ban dén tony chuong 2. Vai tré cia xudt khau rong Hay xem xét nhimng khodn chi tieu ve hang héa va dich.vu do moi nea kinh t€ t20 ra, Trong nn kinh 1 ding, toin bd sin lugng duge bin trong nuéc, va hi teu duge chia thinh 3 thanh 16: teu dang, du tu va mua hang cia chinh phi. Trong nién kinh (6 | mé, mot phian sin Lung bin trong nude va mot phn duye xust Khu nue Mgodi. Ching ta 66 thé chia chi tieu dé mua sin long Y cia nign kinh tS mé than « think t: * Tieu ding hing héa va dich vy trong nuvie -C* * Daw tu hang h6a va dich vu trong nude - If + Mua hing hia vi dich vu trong nude cia chinh phir - G2 * Xuft khdu hang hoa va dich vu - EX chi feu thanh 4 thinh t6 nay duge biéu thj bang dong nh the: Vice phan cl yectetsot+ex | Ting cia 3 thin 16 dau C+ 14+ G? i ei teu trong nuded mua King hés va | dich vu tong mucc, Thanh 1 thew EX 1 chi itu cia nue ngodi dé mua nang hia vi dich vu trong nie Bay giiy ching ta fim cho dong nit thie nay tr nen hitu feh hen, Dé lim vige hndy lum ¥ ring chi 3. 8S Me chen lc lam pit Hinh 7-14, Mate chénb Iéch tam phat va ty gia hdi dodt ; Big d8 di quy nay cho thy mdi quan dodi mdi nue (rrén da a), tromg thot KY ‘ne ita tam pht vat gid Ndi dod dan, Hanh ve ch thy nog nadie 6 1 16 aha. rye oda bei i cht a phan ae, sy Hel) 1 am ht Wk ee ee ouinaldscin ition dc so vit MS trong tho 0 « 1991. Tryctune tet eet da 6 mite lam phat twong dei thép, dng 1991. Truc tung bie th su thay di bin m quan tink theo phn tram ciia 1 gid hoi sign eta ho xu hung Fen gid ee A A TE Trudng hgp dac biét: sy ngang bang sic mua eu co bin trong kinh t€ hoc, duye goi La quy ude mar gid, n6i ring, sso bn ing tm gett eas ek a ed trong cong mot tht gin. NEI Bia ta pba New York vi gi tip hom 30 v6 Chicago, thi nha du eo s& thu duge li nhugn Khi mua uh my & New York, va bdn Iai 4 Chicago. Do Iuon tuon chop lay nhing tho cu nh thé, nba iw ex lam tang eau Ida ‘my 6 New York va ting cung # Chicago. Ditu dé diy gi & New York tang len va lam im gid & Chicago - e nhur vay cho den khi gid ed ngang nhow tren hai thi tradng, ui lugt mot gid dp dung cho thi trudmg qué t€ duge goi IA su ngang béng tin nio d6) phai 6 site mua nhu nhau 6 tat cd cic nude. Didu dé €6 thé duce iti thich 4 217 4dca bai kiém loi nhutn khi mua lia my & thi trutmg trong nude va bin ra nude ngoi Cée nha dau co khao khét loi nhuan sé dy gid tia mi trong nuée tang len Twoog tng voi gid & muse ngodi, Ditu twong ty cing xiy ra, vou trén thi trudmg quide t6, | do ta nua duge nhitu lia my han so v6i trong nude, céc chi du co sE mua lia my 6 nuve ‘goal vA dem vé tn trong nude, lam cho gié Ida my trong aude gidm xuong ngang vi aif qui (6. Nhu vy, vige ede nha du eo que t¢ tim kim Ioi nhudn lim gid lie my ten thé gigi ngang nha CChiing ta c6 thé sit dung mo hinh eta minh v8 ty gi héi doai th i thi ; inh e#a mink if hi dodi the ta gidi thich foe thuyet ve su ogang bing sue mua Phin ing nhach nhay cia cde nha du co quée Inet way doi lin trong xust khdu rong. Tinh nhay edm eve ky cac iy ea xuat Khu rong dim bio rng 1 gi hoi dodithye t€ edn bing ludn luon xp xi 6 mite dim bio sy ngang bing stic mua, : se —__—_ Ty gid ba oti ge Xa kh rg Nx Hinh 7-15, Su gang bing sic mua uy tua mot gid dp dung cho hi wade em vdimhtng su thay dd nls trong 6} ‘he sii cho thay xudi kidu rong rat uhay gid hai lod thu té Sw ngang bing stic mua e6 hai ¥ nghia quan trong. Thi nha, vi dtm, i ia quan tor hit, vi dutmg xust khiiw {ped sin ah nbm egang, aking thay d6i rong tet kim hoe du tu khong A hang Tie dat BS Modi thet hose dank nghia. Thi hai, vi ty gis hoi dos thye khong {hay 46, mor su thay Ai trong tg hoi dosidanh nghis bit ngubn ti sv thay di pa 218 ci. LY thuyét ve’ su ngang bing site mua c6 thue t khOng? Da s6 ede aha kinh ttn ring, cho di 16 gich cia né rat hip dn, nhumg su ngang bang site mur khong mo ti the gis mot e4ea hoin todn chinh xéc. Thir hat, nhigu hing héa khong dé ding trac Gi, Cit t6e 5 Tokyo o6 thé dat hon i New York, nhung khong thé 8 buon bin quéc 1, vi khong thé van chuyén dieh vu eft t6e, Thi hai, ngay ed ning mat hing héa trac 446i duge khong phi lic nao cing la nhing mat hing thay thé hodn hio. Mot s6 ngui thich xe Toyota hom, mot s6 khée Iai thich xe Ford. Do dé, gid twong é6i cba Toyots ’ Ford c6 thé bisn ding trong mot pham vi nbst dinh ma khong tao ra mt eo hoi kicin: Joi nhutn mao. Vi nhing ly do niy mi trén thue t,t} git hoi dosi thu t€ bign done thuing xuyen, ‘Mae di ly thuyét ve su ngang bing site mua khong mo ta thé gidi mot each hoi: hao, nhumg né neu ra mot can ci dé ohn dinh ring ty gid hoi dodi thu 1€ bign done trong mot pham vi nbit dinh. Lo gich eda né e6 nhitu gid tr quan trong: khi tY gid hos dodi thye t6 cing xa réi mic du dosn eda Iy thuyét vé sw ngang bing sie mua, thi cing 6 nhiou mguis es doxg cat tham gia vao hoat dong diu ev quée (6. Mae dit ching ts khong thé dua vio sw ngang bang siz mua dé phi nhén moi su thay dei trong ty gic hoi dosi thu t, nhumg I thuyét nay dua ra ly do dé ching ta tin ting sy bith dn cia ty gif hoi doi thye 1 khong 16n hoae chi mang tinh chat tam thi NGHIEN CUU TINH HUONG 7-4, Big Mac khdp thé gidi Ly thuyet ve sw ngang bing sie mua néi ring sau khi dieu china tf gia hoi dosi, hing hoa duye bin ra wi cing mot gid 6 khip moi nai. Do dd, 13 gid hot dot gia hai dong titn phy thude vo bign dng gid ed & hai nude Dé tim hiéu xem Ij thuyét may phit huy te dung t6t dén mite nio, ts tap chi quée 1 Nha kinh ré thuding xuyen thu thip s6 ligu ve gid ed ea mot mat King duge ban ty niu nude: binh Hamburger Big Mac cia hing Me Donald. Theo s¥ nging bang sic ‘mua, gti eda 1 che binh Big Mac phi e& quap he chat ché véi gid hOi dosi dank ghia cia mot mute. Gia Big Mac tink bing not te cing eao, tj i Wi dodi (tinh cho 1 do 1a) eang cao. Bling 7-1 ghi mite gid qude t¢ vaonam 1993, khi | chide Big Mac bin v6i gid 2,28 0 la tai MJ. Du vio a6 ligu nay, ngudi ta €6 thé si dung ly thuyét ve si ngang bing sie mua dé dy bio ty gid hoi dosi danh nghia, Vi dy, vi tai Nhat | ehige Big Mac gid 391 yon, nguis ta dy bio ring ty gis hi dosi ida do Ia va yon 1A 391/2,28 hay 17i ‘yen an mot do la. Tai mife ty gié may, chide Big Mac duye bin véi gid nbur nhau 6 Nha va MB. 4o4 219. fF git hoi dogi thye t€ vi dy bio khic nhaw ding ké. Chang han ty wid hoi dey shat hg gery tes tg eee “a thye hign rit van nhau. di khong chioh xée, song Iy thuy vé su ngarg bng site mua La.mot dinh ‘hung gin ding ve ty gid hoi dodi. a Bang 7.1. Gid Big Mac va ty gia hoi doai: bang ste mua ‘TY gid h6i doai (trén 1 do la My) Ging dung ty thuyét vé su ngang or eae 109,00 47,81 32.45 pee pe 77: 000,00 33:772,00 27 521,00 an pine + 4,79 127, 1 ‘36 ola 2,76 i Frage Mame en Mach Con 2575 139 6.6 ad eee 18.50 RL 534 « tic 4.60 202 i Woeie a Reon Pr trae a F oe 148 154 sa ingit 35, 147 ‘coat i mk I an Gundy 5.45 239 k in 300,00 1009,00 196. frag oe HRS Pe yt tan oe 48,00 21,05 25.16 9 o 2.28 on “100 7.4. Nude My vdi tu cach nén kinh té Ién va md cita Trong chug nay, ching tdi thay nén kind 1 nhs vi mé elim vay hinh ea sao, (Ching ta di xem xét nhiing yéu t quy dinh lung chu chuygn von qusse 1€ phye vy cho fich ly von odng nhu lung hing hia va dich vy quie 18. Ching ta eng phan tich nnhiing yew 66 quy dink ty gid hii dosi thue t va danh nghia cita mt nse. Phan tich cea chiing ta cho thay bing chinh sich khife nau ~ nhu tign tS, ti ehinh va thang ic ddng ra sao dén cin chn thuung mai va ty gid hoi dos. Non kinh t€ ma ching ta nghien edu la én kinh (€ “nhs” h éu theo nghia tai swat cia nd bi quy dink boi thi rutng Ki ehinh the giGi ~ nghia La ching ta gid dina ing 15 khong thé tae ding Wi Iai suit thé gid, do U6 n6 6 thé vay va eho vay Inne von khong han ché «mite lai suat thé giv. Gid dink may trdi nguye vi gid dinh dope dia a khi nghién edu ngn kinh (€ déng trong chuong 3. Trong nen kinh t€ ding, lik suat trong ninie phai dim bio sy edn bing git tigt kigm va du te trong nuse, nghia [a nhiing chinh sich tie dng dg tit kigm hode dau tw sé lam thay dei i sust ed bing, Kt luan no trong nhiing phan (ich tren e6 thé ip dung cho wn kinh t€ naw MY ching ham? Caw tr li Et Oi mo hinh cho ta mot vii Ket tutn, MOt mt, nn Kink t€ Mj khdng kin hoae bigt kip dé mic khong hé bj anh hurimg bir ning xu hudng phat Uwign 6 nucie ngodi. Mite thann hyt thug mi tem tong vio thap ky 80 vat tu thap ky 90 cho thay tin quan trong eda thi wutmg ti chiah qué té trong vige eung eX von ccho du tu d¢ My.Do d6, nhimg phan tich ve nén kink t€ ding 6 chuong 3 kheng thé isi thich dy di tae dong eta shinh sich di voi nen kinh 8 Mj. mie e6 thé sit dung tigt Mat kde, nign kinh (M9 eng khong nh va mi eta dé ‘46 St quai phn tich @ chuong may. Trude het, My dd kim dS arb hutg ti thi trate {ai ehinh thé gid. Chah sich tit chinh eda MJ bi quy trich nhigm da gay ra Bi sudt thye t8 cao, phé bign khép thé zidi vie nbimg nam 1980. Hai fa, vin khong 66 ifah co dng hodn hao gia ede mage. Nu nhw moi ngudi thich gid cia cai cia ho dudi dang tai san trong nude hem fi i sin music ngodi, in phuc vo cho qus trinh tich Liy von khong di chuyén tr do dé san bing lil suit 6 tit ed cde nude. Voi hai ly do nbur vay, ching ta khong thé sie dung tigp mo hinh eda minh v8 nin kinh w nh va mi ota 46 m6 ta niga inh t€ My, , Ki phan tieh cbinh sich eta mot nude nh My, ching ta Cin pho hop 10 gich VB niga kinh (8 ding «chung 3 wi Jo gich ve ngn kinh 1 nbo vit md cia & chiwmng ny. Phin phw tue cua chuong ny trinh biy mot mo hinh vé ign hinh t€ nim gids 2 thd cue tren, Trong trvimg hep trung gian d6, ching ta e6 quan hy vay vi eho vay cube (6, ‘nhumng Iai suat Khong bj quy dink béi thi truemg ti chinb que t€. That vay, Kh mot nién kinh ( vay ng nue ngodi nhieu, né phil dua ra mie lai sit exo di sic Hip din ie ngodi. Va ket qui Khong e6 gi ngae abien La, ching ta @6 mgt Kt cee nh’ dw ten hyp ela 2 ti cue 05 tinh bay AAO 221Vidu, rung hop gim tietkiem quéc dan do bign php mi rong UE chia. Cae eng én kinh t€ ng, ehinh sded nay lim ting ai sul vt lan at au te. 5 ‘og nén inh t€ nh va mi cite, né gay ra tham hut thuang mai vi syle a dong noi (. Bai véy, mic di mo hinh ¥ mtn kinb t€’nhd va meee gi cu khong, 18 chin ade ném kin t€ MY, song n6 dom il iad in WE Ue dong cia chinh sich di vi cin can thumg mai vA ty hii doi, Tom tat {+ Xult ku cbng la phitn cheb eh gida xust Khu va ap Ky, NS bing me hen Weh gia edi ma ching ta sin xu va edi ma ching ta e6 nh ctu d& pve vu ticu dung, daw tw va mua ling ea chinh pho. 22s ts nade ngodi rng 1 me chenh ech gia it kiem vi dw wy trong nue Sap Gn fuong mai 18 Khoi luong xust Khu rong eda chung ta vé hang hoa dich ung nhat thie bach ton thu nhap que in cho thy caw a mae ngoat Ong luon ludn bang edn ean tiweng mai $+ Tie dong cli'mot chinh sich nio 45 46i wi ein can thuumg mai 6 thé duge xe tie dong cha n6 dén tict kigm va iu tw, Nhimng chinh sim cu tw din den thing dur thuong mai, cdn nhiing tang ehiti¢u chinh phi hose gdm thus, Hinh 721 mo ta qua waa sgchinh sich niy lim gi tit Kiem qude dan S, qua dln gidm neooe Son Fea ba nage Hi sual can bing r. Lai suft cao hon Lim giim cd dau tu trong dade Lon sei ate ngoti rong NFL Su giim st cin du tr me ogodi rdng lame ung W540 la tn th tevtng hoi dos. Tj wid hoi dos tanga nut kde rene wing xuong. hop S. Trong nin kinh t dng, su gi 230 THE Sf fe dong cm chi sich think trong md inh nay 1 te dng ket ia chinh sich d trong mén kinh i déng vA trong tién kinh té aho-vh neeene Gene ths tong nen kink t€ dng, vige ma rong Wi chiah tong tn Kish te tin ee ane 1 sust va lin at dau tu. Ging nh tong mén kinh teh v4 moh olan, ‘ng i chinh dn én thm hor thuomg mai va gi hoi dos tangle Mot eich 06 ahan bist quan be gida 3 Tosi inh kin t 1 x6 Ong nhit the: S=14NX one ef} rang hop, chin sich ti chiah mi rOng lam gid gt kigm qué dan im sit cia S phd hop véi sw giim sit cia | vi NX hong déi & mie bang khong. Trong aén kinh t nbd va mé cira, tinh trang suy giim te php wp sucha NX Tee sel Be a inh Ne in inven ea emg hy eng nev NX Jeu ie, bigs em ot hong hon me sy am ca § Su deh chuyéo ein dung chu diy tu, Gi siding chu dau w dich chuyéa god, 66 thE do quse hoi thong qua dyo lust mign thu dt tw. Hinh 7-22 bigu the «tong 45. Nhu chu ve véa vay tng le Lim ting Ii su ean Bing. Mi salt canton tam gidm dt tw nie ngoai rong. Ngubi MY cho muse ngoai vay it hor, cba ng va ngoai cho MJ vay nhitu hon. Daw tw nude ngodi rong giim lam gim cung ve dé la wen thi truting hoi dos. TY gis hoi dosi tang va xust kh Ong gidm. (b) Dau ex nude ngodi rang (a) Thi truong vén vay . ; t - — NFiir) ‘Von vay STeNEL Diu:ter nude ngati rong, ue am tang lai sudt. Fink (b) cho thy tai sudt cao hom lim gidin daw tw nude ngodi rong. Hink fe) cho thdy daw tu utée ngoai rong it hon lam rang 65 gid /ndt dodi va gidim xuat ku rong. Tygiti doi te 1 ut kh ng inh 7-22. Sv gia tang nhu edu du tur trong nén kinh té 16m va md cita Saar ane moe anti gt chuyén dudng xuat khdu rong ra ngoai. Vi khong co dieu g cay ra tren a 1 chuyén cia dubng xuat khdu rong lam cing ty gid h6i dodi. TY gid hot deat tang 115° BIhing cia MY tra nén dat tuomg d6i so v6i hang ngoai. Digu ny han che xust khw va huyein khich nhip khév. Cuoi cing, chinh sch han ché thueng mai khong anh hung «den edn edn thuomg mai. (a) Thy twang von vay &) Dau tu nude ngoai rime . s . : "mer Neues Se NF Wer von vey vant gong Chin sdch han che mhdp Khu tam range) Te ewe Wt dos fu cite v8 sus Khu rong nh doe mo 14 G hin (c)-TS gi hd dodi thu té'tang. trong ki cin can thaong mai diane hai | Cén bing nh ei. Khong cb dieu gi xiv ra trén th trving vn vay hin (a) ode daw 1 nuée ngoai rong trong hinh (6). 2 owe) Te ut ing Hinh 7-23, Chinh sich han ché nhap Khu trong nén kinh t€ ln vi mé cin Su dich chuyén cia duimg dau tw nude ngoai rong. Nhitw nguyen nhiin e6 thé fim cho diimg dtu tw nude ngodi rong dich chuyén, vi du su thay déi chinh sich tai chinh ¢ nuse ngodi. Gia sir Dt theo dui chinh sich &i chinh nh fam tang tit kiém & Bite. Chinh sich ny lim cho Iii suit cia Dac gm xuding. Lai suit thip ¢ Dibe Fam nin lng efe nha dau tw MY dang eho vay & Dic va khuytn khich ci nha dau te Die cho vay & 449, Diu tu nuse ngodi rong gdm xudng tai moi me Ii sut cho tnaie ea Mj, LY do kh ©6 thé lam dutmg NFI dich chuyén Ia inh hinh chinh tr bat dn nue ngoni. Gi sit xiy ra cude chien tranh hoae eich mang nuvi ngodi, Cie nha di tw khip "thé git s& tim zich rit tai sin cia ho ra khOi nude dé va tim noi “an tod” & mat nue won Iuon én dinh niu Mj. Ket qui, dau tw nude ngodi ring cia MY giim, inh 7-24 bigu dién tie dong ea sy dich ehuyén duimg dau tw nuve ngoti rong (NFD) Cu ve v6n vay gi lam cho Iai suit edn 98mg ha xudng. Lai ust thay hom Tam 232 tang NFI, nhung dieu nly chi Bm giim mot phn se dich chuyén cia dudmg NFL. Mito dfhu ts nude ngodi rong thep bon Fim im cung ve dla tren thj trading hi dos, 19 oi doa tang va xust Khu rong gidm xubing. (2) Th trudmg von vay (b) Daw tu nue ngodi rong . - é i INS . NFM) - — aneaised = — Hinh 7-24, Sig gkim sit dau tw nude ngoai ring trong nen inh t€ Yon va mi cira Két luan nh trong nitn kinh t€ nh vi mé cita. Nhung trén nhimg gide d9 khic, hai mo Fink Ca 146 23316i dosi va khong anh hug gi dén cén car ‘thuong mg it Bal tap va van dung 234 Néu chin tranh bing né & nude agoai, dieu a6 06 thé tie dor , 8 mi gi, ih he dng nbn Kn My theo ahieu cach, Hay sit dung mo hinh cba nén kinh té én va més cla dé xem x hig ne dh ey oat hen ath ey Di ay soi tm, cin stn tung sav gb dor MG? aa ‘xem xét timg téc dong ring Dict). . MOE '& Chinh phii MJ tang chi tieu cho qucic phong vi lo ngai phii tham chi, 5. Nhu ctu cia efe nude Khe v8 cle loi va kh wi tan do My sin xutt tang. Cpe chi ran lim cho‘ tng ty ia MY in gv tong hoiin mot s6 du én dau tu. 7 aa 44 Cue chin ran i eho ng iu ding MS in hia tiét kim ohitu hom, eae metala ns 6: Nabi M9 ten longi vce chuyén d cha ae not, v vay om ‘ngudi quyét dinh nghi tai My. eeu way es hie £ Cée nha dtu tu nage ngodi cho ring My 18 noi dau ty an todn cho vin dtu tu PHAN I Mae NEN KINH TE TRONG NGAN HAN rong phén 2, ching ta 48 trinh bay nhimg Iy thuyét gidi thich bidu hign cia nén kinh té trong dai han. Nhimg If thuyét dé dua trén co sb ‘suf phan di cé dién - tite tién 48 cho rang cac bién thuc t nhu san luong va vigc lim khéng phy thuée vao big danh nghia, ching han cung dng tién t8. Mac di su phn di cé dién nhin chung c6 higu Ive trong dai han, song phén I6n cdc nha kinh t8 déu cho ring diéu d6 khang thé nado ap dung trong ngan han. Trong phan Ill nay, ching ta sé xem xét cch giai thich cia cdc nha kinh 18 vé nhing bién déng kinh t@ ngdin han. ‘Chuong 8 98n vé nhiing su khdc nhau can ban gidla dai han va ngan han, déng thd. gidi thiéu mé hinh téng cung va téng céu, VSi mé hin nay, ching ta phan tich xem cdc ct s6c téc déng dén nén kinh t6 gay ra nhiing bién dong cia san lugng va viée [am nhu thé no. Ba chufang tig theo sé tinh bay dy than vé mé hinh tng cung va t@ng cu. Chuang 9 va 10 gii thigu ly thuyét vé téng edu, duge go 1a mé hinh IS - LM, qua 46 ching ta higu duge téc déng cia chinh sich tin t8 va lai chinh d6i véi tGng cu v8 hang héa va dich vu. Chuong 11 tiinh bay cae I thuyét vé téng cung va méi quan hé gid ching, rong shuong 12, chiing ta sé thao ludn vé vige ede nha hoach dinh chinh sach nén phan ting nhy thé no trudc nhing bién dng ngan han. Chinh sch tién t@ va tai chinh nén dong vai tr chi déng hay bi déng 7 Chinh sch nén duse thuc hién dya trén mot dao luat hay nén duge phép ty nghi hanh dng? Chuang 13 dua céc van 48 quéc 16 vao trong phan tick eda ching ta. M6 hinh Mundell - Fleming, mét If thuyét vé big d6rg cia nén kinh t€ mé trong ngin han s8 duge giéi thiéu 6 chuong nay. Chuong cusi cing cla phn nay, chung 14, giéi thgu iy thuyét vé ‘chu ky kinh doanh thu Ly thuyét khac nay vé bin dng kinh t& ng’ han duge mét ahSm céc nhé kinh t8 tuy nhd, nhung o6 anh husng len ting h. Né cho t&ng sy phan d6i c6 dién mé ta biéu hién cia nén kinh {8 c@ trong ngén han va dai han. Né hoan toan di lap vif thuyét ngén hhan doe trinh bay ti chuong 8 dn chuong 13 duce da s6.cée nha inh té ding hs 235CHUONG 8 GIGI THIEU NHONG BIEN DONG KINH TE Thé sisi higm dai theo dai chu ky kink dounh giding nue ngudt Ai Cap 6 dai quan sdt 1a tut d séng Nin. Cit sau mot thoi gian, hién ‘ugg nay lai dp la, m6 tim quan trong ln lao dé wi moi ng nnhiewg chiea ai hid dite nhitng nguyen nhan tat yeu evan, John Bates Clark, 1898 inh te va th sich. Nhw ee ban thay trong hinh 8-1. GDP thue t khong tang mot wich dea din. Ci eude suy thoi - tie thoi ky thu ahap gid sit va that nghigp gia Wi dign nhieu Fin. Cuge suy thodi kinh t€ Mj vio nam 1990 da lim cho GDP fekim 2.2% neu tinh ti dinh ti diy cia nd, va tle that nghiep tang len ti 7.7%, Cie cuge suy thosi kinh (€ ebm gn vei tun lam vige ngén hon : nhitu cdng aban chi lim vige aia ngay va chi e6 rat ft cong nan lam them gid. Cée nb kinh t€ goi nhing bign dong nay eda sin lugng va vige fim li chu kj kin dows, Me dit kh niém nay Lim ching ta nghi rang nhing bien dong trong nn kinh {s mang tinh gy tual va €6 thé dy bio duce, nbumg thye 16 khong phii nhu vay. Cie cue sty toa dign ra thutng xuyen, nhung khong tuan theo qui lu nio. Doi kh ching ‘X9y ra gan ahau nh ef cuge suy thos nam 1980 va 19%2. Ddi ki cbiing cach xa nhau, hur ee cue suy thodi nam 1982 vi 1990, ‘rong ohn X eta cu6n sich nay, ching ta di phat trign mo hinh dé xée dinh nhimng yeu t5 ay dinh thu nbp qude din, thit nghigp, lam pht va cde bign s6 kinh te khide Ninung elit ts khong phi tich tai sao efe bigs s6 nay Iai bién dng nhigu ahw vay 4 aim nay sang nam khée. Trong phn ny, ching ta xay dumg mo hinh dé ly gidt ‘hang bien "ng ngain han nay. Vi GDP thye t€ la chi tiu tt ahat v8 phe li kinb 16, 0 ui hing vai ro trong tam trong mo hinh cba chiing ta ‘ing shu eau Ai cap tim e&eh dép dap Aswan dé ngan 18 tut 6 Thung long song |. i no’ Fen dai tim each ché ngu chu ky kinh doanh thong qua eSe chinh sch kinh * thea hop. Ms hinh ma ching ta tinh bay trong nhigu chuong sau cho thily chinh ‘eh tal ek «vi gn t6 tie dng ti chu ky kinh doanh ni the nv. Ching tase thay % ‘ing cfe ehinh sich miy e6 thé én inh on kind (6, nhumg edrg e6 thé fam cho ching tre) néarteam trong bas. 8.1. Su khac nhau giifa ngan han va dai han say dome inh nn bn dng koh 1 nn mts, ching a pt cm nh ss hn cin oi an Ua tn ly hong 5 chan wht se Kh ch ig Kesha en ti ih ta nh hn Fg an od I pd ing ha on Fong nd nhieu logi gid bj "mde" é mot mite nhdt dink ndo dé. Vi gid cd biéu flee fae tong ngtn hn 8d nn shah sch knh eg sng Kena wong cae Kg ti gin Eh 10 Ty esa ge ruse hin tram thay 4 tt 4 qu 1960 —«1965—=«N97=S«C9TS— 19RD RS 1919S Hinh 8-1. Tang tring cia GDP 6 MY nay. Suy tod La whing thd ky trong dB GP gid trong hg th B18 tang inting cia GDP mang dé dm Su tang tvuing ctia GDP thee 1é binh aud King 3%/ nam ne detng chin dm ngang cho thay, mung c6 sue bien thign ding ké xung quan mite binh quan tin t¢ 5%. Theo md hinh ¢6 din ma da s6 cde nha kinh té nbit tri lag duge sit dung: At 237<4 mo ta bidu hign eda nm kinh t trang dai han, cung tng tien 18 tée dong ti bie anh nga - tic cdc bign tinh bing ten - chi khong tic dong t6i bien thue t€. Nhw ching ta di bist trong chaong 6, rguyen tie niy duge goi lsu phan dai ed igh, Trong evo nu cde VE hing hava dietons Bag thas nh ebu Ii chia sy te dong ei chith sich stmt, chinhadch iat chinh va vo nn yeu Khic. Do ds in eng esc ea gc 0 ue 8 hap y cho vie ot dng oo iu qudchinh seh ti ehin vation ¢ chim én dah nen kin & rong naan Non Trong phin edn Iai eda chuong niy, ching ta dia m mot md hah 6 thé Iy gia fig bicn dong ngin han cia nén kind ts. Mo hinh cung chu mi ching ta da sf dung <4 rh th thi teutmg bsnih my trong chuomg | cung cp mo s6 higu bist co ban ahi Xe Kink € hoe. Mo hinh my cho théy cung va elu ve mot mat hing nto dé dng thot uel din gid, Iugng hang bin ra va su thay di eda ede bigh nguai sinh tie dong t ied va sin Iuong nh thé nio. © day, ching ta trinh ty m0 hinh ny eho toda bd spa Kin t= dye goi 8 md hin wing cang vad wing en Minh kin tS vi md dy cho phép ching ta nghien edu xem mit gid chung vi tng sin lung dage quy dah hw the nao, NG edng fa phuomg tign dé xem xét sy tag phiin gida bigu hien eda non inh t trong di han va agin haa, 238 Mie di mo hin téng cung va tGng chu ging mo binh cung chu v8 mt loi hing hoa ea bigt, nhung ching khong hoan ‘oan gidng nhau. Mo hinh cung civ vé mot mat hang duy ait chi xem xét mot mat ing wong na kinh trong 1d Nguge lai, md bin t6ng ung va tng eb mo hink phe tap. gin hing tie dg qua lat gion thi tring vi nha NGHIEN CUU TINH HUONG a 8-1. Viin dé nan gidi vé tinh cing nhée ciia gid tap chi Giti ed eimg nase cén mite nto ? Cau tra Idi phu thuge vao chd gid mi hing ta xem xét thude loai no. Mot s6 loai hing héa, ching han hia mj, du tuemg vA thit lon ‘mde ham durye mua ban & e4e st giao dich e6 t6 chic vA gid cdciaching thay déi timg hit: Khong ai 6 thé cho ring cic loai gid nly cling nhc. Nhung gii ed cia hau het hing, hoa va dich wy eat it thay i. Mot cude ditu tra cho thay 37,7% coanh nghigp thay di mot fan; 17.4% khée thay d6i gid ec dui mot fan mdi nam. Nhimg 1y do din dén tinh cing nhc cia gi ca khong phai bao gir cing 1 ring. ‘Ching han, ching ta hay xem xét thj tuting tap chi, Mot eOng trink ngbién eu cho thay gid tap chi bam & ei quay ban bio rit it Khi thay d6i, Mot tap cti dign hinh cho DPhép Jam phat lim x6i mon gid thue «cia m6 ti khong 25%, tre khi n6 ting gid dank neha. Neu lam phit c+ mide 42%/ndm, thi mot ty béo thay di gid ca eta n6 trong, khoding 6 nam. Tai sao gid tap ehi fi e6 dinh qua fiw nbu vay ? Cie nha kinh t€ khong 66 lai gi

40. “Th hy. sin ha Hinh 8-2, Dung téng ctu uding tng cu AD bie thi mei quay he lta mite gid P vid ling cau v8 hang hoa a dich vu YN duge vé cho mot mite ung ing tien 08 hit dink M, Buing ing ctu dee suding : mie gid cing cao, 6 dv thuc té M cang nh, da dé hams cet hang hav cich vu ¥ cing cng tp, an hy nha ing phaomg inh 36 long HE due viet dd eung fu ve $6 du tiem t¢ thue . aa eee MiP = (MiP) 240 Trong ds k = /V. Duvi dang nay, phuong trinh sé luyng adi Ring cung v2 s6du tide t@ thue 1 MIP bing ctu (M4/PY* va mac eau may ty He thud wi san lung Y. Oi vdi mdi mie cung Ung tien te mht dinh, phuong trina 86 lweng AG: Ken moi quan he 19 Ie nghich gitta mi gis vi sin luyng ¥. Hinh 8-2 cho biet nhiing et hop sia P va Y thé man phuung tinh so luong véi mie cung ing ten t@ €6 din. NO duge i Ft dudng tng ctu Tai sao duéng téng cau lai déc xuéng? ‘Duding (ng ctu doc xudng. Boi vi mbi cung ing tien t¢ nh inh, phuvwg tinh s6 luong xéc dinh gid tr] danh nghia cia sin lung PY. Vi vay, néu mic gid P tang, sin lugng Y phai gid. Cé mgt eéch dé higu msi quan be ty Ie nghich gi P va Y 14 xem xét msi quan be ita khi lung tidn t¢ va giao dich. Vi chuing ta di gi dinh We d¢ tuw theng tien, (© khong d6i, nen cung tng lida tf quyet dinh gid tr tinh bang ¢0 la cis tH cd ci giao dich dign ra rong nn kin (6. NSu gi ca ting, mei giao dich cin mt luomg tien nhitu hon, ddo dé lung giao dich, cing v6i né Ii ung hang béa vi dich vy mua duye,'ph2i giim. ‘Tuung tu, ching ta e6 thé xem xét cung va cau ve 6 du itn t¢ the 16. Néu sin Iugng, cao hon, moi nguii thye hign nhieu giao dich hon va cia mot lung s6 du thue te M/P 16m hon. Voi mic cung ting ti8n t¢ danh nghia nba dnb, s6 dur thye té in hom ham § mie gid tht hon. Nguve Iai, néu mu gis thip hon, si du tien (@ thue t8 kom. hum; 56 du tin t¢ thye t 6m hom cho phép thye hign duge nhieu giao dich hon vi nbur vay san lung eting phi cao han. ‘Su dich chuyén cla duéng téng cau Dutmg AD duge vé cho mot mie cung tng tidn t@ nha dink. N6i cach Kic, m6 ‘cho ta biGt ahigu két hop e6 thé 66 iia P vi Y Kh €6 mot mie eung ig ten te nha «inh. New cung ing ten 1 thay di, e&e KEL hop gia P va Y sé thay d6i, neha la dutmg Wing elu dich chuyéa di, Ching ta hiy xem xét vai trubmg hop 6 sur dich chuyén, “True het, ching ta phan tich xom ditu gi xiy ra néu Quy Dy tet Lien bang gid ‘cung ting tign t. Phung tinh sO lung MV = PY cho chiing ta biet bign phap eft gidm ‘cung dng tién t¢ din dn st eiim sit tuong ting cia gid tr sin luyng danh nghia PY. Tai moi mite gid cho true, lugng san phim sé thap hom va tai mo lung sn lug cho trie, mie gid s8thtp hun, Nw duye chi ra trong hinh 8-3, duimg ting edu dich chuyén va phia trong. Ticp theo, ehiing ta xcin x$t ditu gi xay ra néu Fed tng cung ting tien (¢. Phuong {inh s6 lung cho chiing ta bet 6 su gia tang ciia PY. Tai moi‘ gid cho (ruse, Huong sin phiim sé cao hon, va tai moi luong sin phim cho trusc, mic gid sé cao hon. Nhir duge chi ra trong hinh 8-4, duimg tng ciu dich chuyén ra phia ngoi Ako 16 KTV 2418.3. Téng cung ‘During téng cau ty né khong cho ching ta biét mic gid hay luong sin phim; nd chi phan Anh moi quan h¢ gia hai bien s6 niy. Dé b6 sung cho dutmg téng clu, ching tach ti mt quen be Khe gida P va Y dé tao ra gino diém vi dng ting eau = Go hin 8 ng tng. cing. C3 ha bg tng eh v8 Sng cig cong Gy inh mie gi lynn phim, Tong cung (AS) biéuhi¢n moi quan hé gida lvong cung vé hang héa va dich vu 'Vi gi cd a oat tong th gian di vd eng he trong tho an a, tft quan he nay phi tage vo Khodng thi gan mi ching ta xem XE. Ching ta cin thao lugn vé hai dudng t6ng cung khée nhau : du’mg tng cung dai han (LRAS) ‘ "8 dudng tng eu npn tan (SRASI. Ching ta cing ch tinh bay Bue qui dd Hinh 83. Su dich chuyén vio phia trong cia dung tng chu edn hin sangd an eieene ™_ at &y se thay AB no trong cang dng ‘ne cing lim cho dng ing euch ctyén. Tal moi mie gid cho tnade gin eung tng tien M hy a ‘hye 1€ MIP thd hon, do d6 sén tworg , ‘hp han. Cho nen, bitn php cde giain Dai han : Budng téng cung thing ding ung tng tin 1 lam cho dug AD dich chugén vio trong Vi mo hinh e& digs mo ti bigu hign ota mtn kinh t€ trong thai gian di, ching ta xy dung dutng téng cung dai han tirmd hinh e6 dign. Trong chwong 3, ching ta di bgt tuung sin phim dage sin xu pha thude vio Iugng tw bin va lao dong e6 dint, cng nhurvao think d0 cOng nghe hign c6. Ching ta e6 thé mo ti dieu nay bang him u-FRD y Theo mo hinh c6 dién, sin luong khong phuy thude vio mic gi. Dé biéu thi mic sin luung bing nfsiu tsi moi méc gis, ching ta vé dudng tng cung thing ding nw trong hinh 8-5. Giao diém cia duing tng clu va duimg tng cung thang ding niy quy€t dinh mie gis. , os Trong thoi sian dil, mie si ong bi guy dn bi Bhai lune Tete tu bin tao dongva rink dB cng 84, Su dich chuyén cia dudmg AD ra phia ngoai gh ign 6. Nha way. nd thins Taio mic gid P cho trae, gia on 3 Phu thuge vio aie gid. Duong var eee ea cane nen. Bene tng can ng 21 in : MR ee eraneafenastn jen 16 M hhdm 3 56 duetue t€ cho dung tdng cu dich chuyen ra 2 ting thdng din «ac han, do dé sin tng ¥cao hn. Cho phiangoot ne dieing thdng ding. sien reg i ca cone dng st ong phi ngvon ge day nt eay ea ang its dong ci Sng chu, Tham chi ngay ci Khicung dng kn i doe git dome ob we une ting cu vin dich chuyén do nhing tay dBi tong te thong tin ee F ¥ onan tl a ve t6ng chu trong chuomg 9 vA 1D, ching ta s8 phn tich ahitu To lop sin tores "igen nhdo 66 thé im eho dudng ting eh dich chuyde Hin 8-5. Duong tng cung & 2 a 42, An 243Jee dubng (Sng cung 1a dung thing ding, thi su thay d6i ca ting ctu ehi te One 15 wi 8 chu Khong dink burg to sn lueng, Vid oe ‘ung ting tién t¢ giém, Sree One cu dich chuyén xuting dui ah trong hinh 9-6 Nogiene (chuyén tir gino diéma i a ro stanton Minh 8-6. Sw dich chuyén cia dudng ting cu trong dai han Cree he din cane ng ttn lim thing ding mong han en hap ed dt ns i dich Chaya s4ong gm wn au che tone ke id, aah Din can bing cca nen kinh 1€ shit khong te bn tt sain tung. clue 62 sang B.Vi dung téng cung pire ‘Sng cung thing cing théa mn su phan doi e6 dé, vi ns gu y ring sin Iwong de lap véi cung tng ten tf. Mae sin lung dis ug Yonay duge goi la sén lwong Cargins hay sin tang av nhien. Dé ia me in laomg tune hi efe nguon tue rang th t duge sit dung Net, hotem6i mot eéch th te ely nghiep & mie ‘ur nhien, Ngan han: Budng téng cung nam ngang Ching ta hay xét mot vi du eye doan, Gid sit bing ci cée doanh nghigp dtu phat hanh Tanah Bh Ué phit hinh nhing bing gi nay stk lon, whe vay, 18 cd ee Loa git cd dtu bi "mle ket" & mic dinh tude. Tai mie pd do dow ty ighi¢p sin sang dap cng nhan dé sin xuat ra mot luyng Sang nh edu cis khich hing. Vi gid ei cing obde, chine re tige ae tring hop nay Ding dung t6rg.cung nim ngang nhw wong Rink 8:7 744 ong ing ov ci nt in gle idm ci ing ng cn tng in st ih ho inca gg aging ang gin an in pn. Td Hh citing ‘an botog ut Iuong, Vi dy, néu Fed dot ngot giim cung ting . aa ne ing nae ch ehayen vo wong a tong hinh #8 Non ln cn a a ch chuyén cia duimg ting ci Seng nie sd hu Trong trong hep nay, te lal gid cde 6 dak trong ngbn he Bai vay, duimg tdng ccung gin than SRAS rnd gang, aca Y ‘hush si one, Hinh 8-7. Dudng tng cung ngdin han vi gid cd khOng thé get im pm sin hong tong ngin ba, sy giim cia tng ct fim gm sin ‘cic doanh nghiép bj mae ket schinh nay lp te, Sth ng eto gdm J ng, ion bingy toda pan Ssactlt ae at an aap se tom Tinh ah ay uve hy pha sat cong akan v gdm sin oe Bien pip ci in cung fing tin t@ sam cho dong. tng ctu. dich chuyéh sing dui. Trang thi edn bing Cia uién kinh (é ciuyén tr dim A sang B. Vi dong + tdng cag. nde ngang trang ngan han, nén vige ting edu gid kéo theo su suy gidm cia dn lung, Y ‘That ame gd han inh 8-8, Su dich chuyén cia dudmg tng chu trong ned 245Se PHAN BOC THEM Ngdin han, dai han va rat dai han Cuoin sich ny trnh bay rt abies mo hin v8 nin kin te va mdi mo hinh gin wi "mot tap hop wid dinh dé dim gian ha vin dB. Cé met eich dé phn toni mo kink den tron eo si Khong thdi gian ma cic mo hinh dp dang. Cé ba nhm mo hin { Nain hai. Chung nay v2 ede chuong tigp theo gigi thigu ly thuyét ngén han ve fen Kinh 16: Ly thuyet nay gid dinh gi ci cung nbc va vi thé, tw bin va lao dong «6 We Khong duoe sit dung het. Tin cdg nhde cia gi e& duge cho la quan tong dot vei Tite I gid nog big dong eta nbn kin t€ mi chang ta quan sit duge t thang nay sang thang Khe hode tt nam nay sang nam khic. Dai han. Chong 3 43 gidi thigw 1y thuyet co bin dai han ve nm kinh t, duge fi [8 mo hinh e6 didn. Chung 6 teah bay 17 thuy6! 6 dign ve ttn teva chung 7 inh bay i thuyet e6 ign ve nen kina tf mi. Nhong chusng nly gid din gid es fan boat, do te ban va lao dong dot si dung het, Chltg cong e6 din lung ty bin lng ‘ng va cong nghe chuyén tu bis vA no dng thanh sin tng. Nhing gi dit nay sp dng t6t shat cho khoding thoi gian va: nam. Trong kong thi gian Ws, pit ed oo dieu chinh Jimi dé dat mic ean bing, con tu bin, lo dong va cong neh taong doi 6 dink, {, Rat dai han. Chuong 4 trish bay ly thuyet eo bin ve tang truimy kinh tf due £01 {3m hin Solow. Mo kink nay phn tich Khong ‘hi gian di dé tw bin, lo dong N2.cone neh hitn e6 thay d6i. Mo Hinh nay duge xty dung ahim ly gidi phuong thie hhoat dong cia én kinh tf rong hosing thdi gian nhita thap XChi phan teh ee chinh sich kinh w ditu quan tong cin lau ¥ rng ching inh fixing deh nn kinh trong tit cee khong thd gia Do d6, chung ta can p thw dio tt ed ef mo hinb nay Tit ngan han dén dai han Ching ts 66 thé tng ket ee ket qui phan tch eGia minh nhw sau: Trong thd gian ‘ain ald cd cing nde dag tng cing gan mh ndm ngang visu thay dl eka tg utd dn ti sin haong eh nen dinh +: Trong th ian di, ge lnh hag, dong fag came thang ding visu thay dd cia ting edu chi tde dong 164 mic gia. Do 86, é €6 tie dang khéc nhau trong nhang quang thi gian Jc dng eins suy gm ting cu. Ci bam i Fh ta ng han nde mo tog nh. Teng inh ye duimg tng cung a a Trang ' z g phai di qua diém ds théi can bing dai han, dug (6g cung ngsin han cting phai di qua cit Mav gt Thea sn to r ai han Hinh 8-9, Trang thai can bang di ; duing ting eu. Vi gid cd da du eh én mie nay, ding tng cung ngdin ha cing phi di qua diém ney. Trang dai han, nbn kinh 1€ te diéu chink dé dat t6i wang thdi can bang tai giao digin etia ding ring cung dai han va “Tht ha. ha Hinh 8-10. Su suy gkim cia tng cau 1 tc din A sang didm B, voi sin lone 6 didi mite 1 nhién, Khi gid ed gic mn kink 1 dn dn hot Ki in sy thodi vd chuyeh tidiéin B den digin Ban da nen kin t€ nim 6 trang thi can bang doi han tai didn A. Sic suy gin ting cd, e4 thé do bién phdp edt gdm ung ng id @ gy a, chuyén mw bin ces 247ate thoi giati tién lwong va gid ed gidm vige fam thé lai mite te nbien, nhumg gid ea ae Ww eid ed thay hom so véi trang thi can bing dai han NGHIEN CUU TINH HUONG 8. Vang, alin ts gidy bae xanh va sr thu hep vio nhing nam 1870 Ms icin ee Noi ttn 349 B mt . i M9 Lt vo ih dg Sn ng a eh pen wi nn knh Tre cn naan vay, Itong ving quyét dink cung ting tién 1 va mie gid, is Nah seh wang tn tec, se i cud Noi chign rb) Tai chinh thong bio khong di Cn php tink rons Binh dng my hay che do bin vi ving Rng he thing dhe pot aha oe ym Sa i, chioh ph pt hid tung tien gity nt em tang tk eh SY ba sank do ma cia ching - vast dang thut de ttn de tri cho ic khosn chi tiu wong chign tanh, Do eung tng tiem tet i wip doi trong nbiing nam chién tanh tang, gid ed da ss hi te ehh ah thi, omg tm i ity ete anh ua ang vo {5 mtn cyt ai ebé Win ving bay Kg Ding Gay ne ene Wu chi uy i thing a pip inh Tey ahr Pape ‘anh th bake mh hac inh chih cht dah noe wae anh i he hE W nv ng Sm gin dla oe vee ae am Me ich ea hi gd ewe dy ce doe oe, Vice quay tnt tai che do bin vi van ho ech my phi ‘id (rude chign tranh vit dieu mr apc cet hI mi Bnei iy ding nghia voi sy suy giim cba tng chu, (Ni chink ing), Do each ng ew phi chim hom 6 do tang tang ca sn ang tin See vate Kh te ti qua mot eupe suythodi Ko di nit trong lich "(1873 don 1879), Vaio nam 1879, i : ‘nam 1879, mite gid tro bi ne trade chi cl ‘hin vi vaing duge: khoi phe, “we mmeicines aay 8.4. Chinh sach én dinh kinh Bicn dong cia ngn kinh t€ ndi chung bat ngudn tir nhng thay di eda téng cung va tng ctu. Cae nh kinh t6 goi nhdng thay déi ngoai sinh cia ede dug ay IA edt sd¢ Ai Vi rien kinh te. Cie et se phi va sw yen inh ve kinh t6, bly sin (uong vA vige Lim ra khoi mic ty nhiéa cia ching, Mo hah tng cung va téng elu cho thay efe csc gay ra nhiing bich dong kinh ( nhu the nao. Mo hinh nay cing rit 6 tie dung trong vige dinh gis xem chin sich kinh t vi ‘m0 o6 thé tae dong t6i eée eG sce niu the nao kh a6 mucin gin bot quy mo bis dong. Chink sdch 6u dinh fa chinb sich cia nha nude nam gilt cho sin lugng va vige Iam & mie ty nhign, Vi cung ting ign t¢ e6 tic dong manh mé t6i *6ng cu, nén ehinh sch tien te 1a. mot thanh 16 quan trong cia chinh sch én dinh. Cac cu séc déi vdi téng cau Ching ta hay xét mot vi dy vé ed s6e d6i v6i tng edu vige phit minh ra may déin tien ty dong. Nhing chige miy nay lam cho vige rat titn mat tnd nén dB bon, do 44 Kam gdm nu chu ve tien t@. Gi sir trube ki ust hign nbn chige my nay, mBi gui Can dn nha bang mii tuin mot Fin dé rit 100 do la va chi teu din dan s6 tien 445 trong ci twin, trong tring hop nay, 86 tién binh quan duge gid 18 $0 do fa. Sau Kh 6 may d&im tidn, mdi gus dén ngain hing mdi twdn 2 fan vat 50 dé ta mei fin, cho nen s6 titn Binh quin duve gi li 25 dd la, Trong vi du nay, nhu caw ve ttm (¢ gidm ‘mot nia, Vie gid nu cu ve tién 1¢ tuomg dung vai s¥ gia ting Ie dd Inu thong tion te, BE thdy duge ditu dé, hay nbé ring MiP = kY trong d6 k= I/V. Su edt glim s6 du ttn t¢ thye tal moi nade sim Iuyag cho trgde ham y 6 sur gdm sit ci k bay gia tang cia V. Vi sy xuat hin logi may d¢m ttn tr ‘dong cho phép moi nguii git tem hom trong vi, cho nén déng dota quay vong ahanh, hon. Digu dé 6 ngia Ii, vi moi ngui nln ttn thug xuyn hon, nen Khedng thd sian Ke tr khi cong do la due rr cho dén khi chi teu gm xu0ng. Nhu vay, t6e 49 Jw thong tang len [Neu cung dng tien 16 Khing thay di, tht kh tém tou thong nanh hon, mc chi ‘iow dant nghiatang.va dugg (ng ci dich chuyéa ra pha ngodi abu rong Kinh 8-11. Trong ngin han, si gia tang ‘éng cA lim tang sin lugng cia rita kinh (6 ~ 6 gay ra si bung n6 kinh t¢. Tai mie gi e8, eae doanh nghigp bay gid bin dug nhieu sin phim han, Do vay, ho thué them eOng nfsn, ing mde sir dung nha raiy va thst bi cia minh, 249Tsai tome Hinh 8-11.Su gia tang cia ting cau Ban dau nén kink t& ndm trong trang théi én bang dai han ta diém A. Su gia tang én sin tugmg cao hom mite te nhién. Khi ‘sid cd ting, san lugmg gidim dan era Iai ting cu do te dé lw thang tién 8 tang mite te nhién ciia nd vd nén kink té cluyén én kink té vie diém A dé B, dé chuyén wr diém B sang C. ‘Theo thai gian, tng ctu cao diy tién lvong va gid cd len eao. Khi gi cA tang, ‘wong cau vé sin phim giim xudg, vi nén kinh t€ din dn té lai mic sin luong te atign, Nhung trong, bude qua do ign tsi mic gid cao hom, sin luong cia nén kinh te dat mite cao hon sin lugng ty nhien, Fed 6 thé lam gi dé ngan chan si bing né nay vi gid sin luong 6 gin mic ty nhien ? Fed e6 thé gidm cung ting titn te dé bi Iai su gia ting cia t6c do liu thong, Bien phip loai tr Anh huimg cia si thay d6i te dd luu thong e6 thé lim tng edu dn din. Nhu yay, Fed c6 thé kitm che hode tham ehi trit tieu nh hung doi véi sin Luong, va vige Rim eta eée et sc ddi vd téng chu, néw né. kiém soat cung ting tien te mot kkhéo 160. Nhung ligu Fed thyc sueé duge nang Ive cin thiét hay khong. Day Iai 12. mot van d@ khé khan hon ma ching ia s8 gidi dap trong chuong 12. NGHIEN CUU TINH HUONG 8-3. Toe do luu thong va cude suy thodi nam 1982 ‘Toc do tu thong tien te én dinh hay bien dong manh ? Ldi gidi dip cho cau hoi ny nh huding den eéch thie ditu hanh chinh sich tién t¢ cia Fed, Mot mit, néu t6e 40 lau thong én dinh, vige én dink tng chu khé dé ding : Fed chi cin gid cho cung. ting ttn t¢ khong dGi hoe ting theo mot ty 1é du dan, Mat khéc, néu te dd lu thong 250 bién dong man, vige én dink tng edu ddi hdi phai dieu chink cung img tion te thug xuyen nhiim qigtricw abiing thay di eda te d@ aw thong, CCuge king holing sau se mt Md tii qua vio nam 1982 max phn 6 thé qu cho sw suy giim manb, dot ngot va nlin chung vin cin chua giaithih dye, cia We «4 lau thong. Hin 8-12 bidu dign te 0 nw thong (due tinh bang e&ch Hy GDP dank nghia chia cho My tim 1960. Hinh ny cho thay te d0 lou thong len tye tang tong ning nim 1960 vat 1970, ahumg gikim dng ké vio thi ky sau nam 1981. Kinb nehigm ci dau nh nim 198) cho thy Fed Khong th dua vio si 6 din ea ed Iu thong. ‘Vio nam 1982, Fed loai tr dnh hudng ea sv giim sit tc do lu thong bang eich tang cung dng ten t¢, Tuy nhien, kiém-ché fam phat 18 moi quan tam hing du ela Fed vio dw nhimg nam 1930, do d6'n6 da gidm ty 1¢ tang cung ting tign # V3 sau d6 tng. cu giim xudng. Tie déng tng hop cui hai lye lugng ds - su suy giim tie dd) lua thong, vi chinh sich tidn t¢ ching lam phat - 5 dln dén cue suy thodi stu sfe mht ké rsa) ‘ude Dai suy thesi vio ning nam 1930, Ching ta nen skinh gi hinh dong ein Fed nh thé nio ? N6 da dit doe mye teu kkicm ché' lam phit & mie thap (tuy vin eao hon mie dy kién), nhung t6n that ma nd ding ké cia sin luung va vige Fim, Cuge suy thei 1982 Fim boc 4 ro cic mue tieu mau thudn nau cia Fed : duy tri mie toan dung va gift lam phit & ine kigm soat dupe, Chinh sich 6n dinh thuimg hay vip phai su dinh 46% gita hai mue tiow nay, 0 1970S TORSO Nim Hinh 8-12. Tee 46 lu thong tien t& Va0 atin nhimng nam 80, vi nhigu IS do gid sit nay gép phin lam gidm t6ng sma ching ta chu Wid, Wie d6 liu thong cu vr din dn cube suy thot 1982, md 120 1 (GDP danh nghia chia cho My) trong nhiing cube suy thodi sau sde wha kim sucing tp hen nlieu so v6ichién tong lich st hign dt ducing tang trong nk.iong ai trae Sy (a5 siNhéng cu séc déi véi téng cung «Cling nhw ei sé d6i vi cau, efe et se 46 vi cung cing gly ra ning bin dong cia nén kinh t. Cx s6e doi véi cung 18 ed sc inh hung (ine kinh t6 thong qua tae dong t6i chi phi sin xudt va qua dd tie dong va gid cd ma ede doanh nghigp-quy dink, Vi efe of se doi vi cung €6 tie dong true ttp ti me gi, cho nen doi khi ching bn duye goi la et s6e gid c’. C6 thé neu ra mgt sO vi du * Khi han hin tin phé mia mang - tuemg cung ve tuong thye gidm, lam thye tang, * Last bo ve moi tevong mi yu cu ie doa ngiep pi i Chu ee down aghiep phi itm me gay 0 hid chy ch hing thn ho Kh ang duh hn iiss oh Cong doin du tranh manb hom - ditu n ‘hing héa duge sin xust bOi cong nisin trong ede am tang luong va gid ed eta ning chiie cong doin, * TS chic eéc ten du mo quée t€- bing cich han che 8 Won €6 thé tang gid dau tren the gici inh tran, ef nba sin xust Moet ? Y Thuy one Hinh 8-13. Ca se bat loi di voi ung it se cung ba gk dy chi ph v4 id ed dng len, Néu bug cau duge gitrc6 dinh, On kinh t's ciyén te didn A sang. B sida tang len va sin lugng gidim. Cé the Khi Bid ca gidim sudng, nbn kink 12 sé ‘quay tre Iai mite tu nhién tai didin A 252 Mac gis it se cung bit Igi irdidin A sang C. Tic hai ctia chink sch andy 18. mite gid Hen tue idng ten h 8-14. Thich ing v Dé dei phd bi et se cung bit li, Fed €6 thé tang tng cau dé ngan chan su sim sit sin laamg. Nén kinh té 5& chuyén Tat ed ahing tradmg hop ten du & ahitng et se bat oi dé voi eng. Cu se cung {hugn Ie, ching han si tan Fie ede ten dau md quse 16, sé Lam giim chi phi vi gid cA. Hinh 8-13 eho thy ed se cung bal loi anh hung dn nén kinh t6 nhu *hé mao. Duimg ting cung ngin han dich chuyén len trén. (Co sc cung c6 thé lam iim sin lucmg tr nbign va nhu vay né lim dich chuyén dung tGng cung dai han sang trai, nhumng & day ching ta bd qua inh huing nay). Ncw (ng clu duge git khong di, ngn kinh t€ chuyén ti diém A sang B : me gid tang len va sin Iuong glam xudng dui mc te nhign. Dé ehiah it hign tuomg fam phat kém suy thodi vi ign kinh t roi vi tah trang suy thodi (sin Iugng pm) trong Khi phii chu lam phst (gi tang). Diing trude csc cung bat ii, nhd hoch dinh ehh seh 6 tréch ahigm kiém soit tng elu, ching han Fed, s€ gap kh6 khan trong vige lua evon gida hai phiong én. Phuomg sn thir nbat, duge miah hoa trong hinh 8-13 1d git cho tng cau khong Trong (ewig, hop niy, sin lueng va vige fim tha hon nate ty nbién. C6 kha wing gid idm dé phuc hoi mic toa dung tai me gid nhu e6 (digm A). Ning t6c hai cia ‘qui trinh nay la eude suy thodi daw dn. Phuong an thit hai duoc mink hoa bing hinh 8-14. N6 yeu chu phii mi réng ting cau dé dua nn kink tt mée tw nhign ohanh ching hon. NSu su gia tng tng edu ign ra dong tho vi se cing, nbn kinh t€nhanh ching choyén tr diém A sang C. “rong tvtime hop ny, ng indi Fed da thich ing wi et sc cung. Tat nh, nhge vt qui quy md sain xuek, do dé ec doanh nghiép bi can kiet hang tn kho Tinh trang can kigt hang ton klio nay cho ho tang quy mo sin xu Néit edie doanth nghiép dang siin xuit & inte Yeh tieu du kh Ey tp hum mie sin suit, do vay ede doanh nghigp tich ly mhiou hang te kho, Quai trinh wich fay hung tam ko nt the’ bude doar nghigp phat gidim quy md sin suit hp hon mec bing Yo rng a 9.4, ° ane Vici tes a kien vo Trg tring yh ud in bmg eo hm se uf gy msn itn ce dou hip iu Ring hon gym sin tc hs Kh a hyn to Kh ea ht sung Sho na emg Hon tang guy mn xn Xt Qu tinh nyt din eho UK th ap Bg mee ew en és c kip ¥ ta mt uw ‘Tim io dim Keynes hea hom the xo heap ¥ ta dy hist chin sch chin Gv Teo tre, Ching ta Ne dg mah hy eh ra eh thas di Chin is thu wht, Ki mot tong ee igh goat sinh thay a Chinh sich tii chinh via nhdn tis mua hang eda chin phi. Ching ta hay phan We acm ny nga ing en ela go se See se he nin kinh (€. Vi mea hing ea chin phi mot thin 16 ele eh tg, nem tai a ii th np eh ideo, ki emia King ci chinh phi cao hon, chi i dr kia cao hm. NEw mua ng ea chin phi tg them Ot tong bing, ding chi ‘iw kign s@ dich chuyén fea phia ten mot khong Bing AG, nhu tong hinh 9-5 ‘Trang thai can Bing eda nbn kinh 1 chayé ti dim A dn diém B. rl 263Fie & Genoa Y Hinh 9-5, Su gia tang mite mua hang cia chinh pha trong giao diém Keynes Tal muir thu nidp dt Ri nao dos gia bgp wang tr Ys ten Yo, Cn tes ¥ rd ‘ng mua hing cia chink phi bang AG mie tang thu nip (AY) tuo hon mee fam cho chi cw de kin tng them mit Adng mua hang cia ehinh phi (MG). Do nog tang tig. Trang thi edn bing vy, inh sich tdi eink et ae dung instn didn: sang dim B, cm thu Rusé dl dl vi nn np Do thi nay ehi ra ring, mic ting mua hing cia chinh phi thimn éhi cdn tam tang thu tp vii quy mo Kin hm. Digw does nghia 1, AY lin hum AG. Ty x6 AVIAG ae sia ennat tf tua hing cia chink phi: ns cho ching ta bic thu nhap ting thém boo {niu khi mua ea ehinh phi ing them mo do, MOLY nghia eda ino dren Keynes 14 @-ehd, nhan ti mua hing eda ehinh phi kin hon Zu: 3 chin sich ti chinh o6 tic dung khuyéch dai thu nap? Ly do li theo him them ean cao hon din dén mie teu ding eaw hon. Vi mie mua hing tana sane rsait ean phi tim ting thu ahgp, cho nén nd Ong im tng teu dong, tigp as aa, ae. Sau ds Ist Lam ting isu ding va v.x.- Do vay trong mo hin ny, mite tang mun hing ee ehinh phi tao m mic tang th adp tom hoe hii ti Kin dn mie nto? Be trl cau hai ny, “iam ong qui tinh thay di eta:thu nkgp. Qui tinh nay bat diy Bh eh ee tang hem mat hug bang AG. Mc ting chi ticu nay dfn dn thu nhap tang them met aung, Toe AG; Se sia ting thu nhap ohu vay fam eho teu ding ting them mot lang ba {PSX AG. trong ds, MPC Ti khuynh hung teu ding edn bién. Mc tang ue ding 1S fas a im tng chi itu va thu nhp. Mie tng th nhip bing MPC + AG ne INF hai ny ti toe Fim tang titu ding mt lung bing MPC x (MPC x AG) v8 bin jan nto Kim tng chi cu va thu hp, v.v..Swhii tgp nu vay tiga dong the Neu ding ti dién v0 han, Higu éng ting eng dil vi thu nha nding tw hay theo doi time bute Thay un Sw ng nemo hh = 3G “Thay doi dau tien trong tigu dng = 3 6 Thay di ving hai rong tibu ding = MPC AG Thay ds vong ba tong teu ding a AY = {1+ MPC + MPC? + MPC.) AG kin tus hinge chi phi ing 5 AIAG = 1» MPC + MPC? + MPC} Cong thie tinh nha te ny [i mot ep i nhan vo han. Ket qua tinh tain Cuye cho phép ching ta vigt nban wr nb sau' AY/AG = V(1-MPC) Vi du, néu khuynh fusing teu ding cin bién 18 06; nhan tir sé AYIAG = 1+ 0,640,674 0,6" + ing Trong trudng hyp nay, 1 Jo fa tang them trong mua hang eda ehinh phi Lim eho thu nha edn bing tang thém 2,5 do tn ‘i {hin sch chin wb ahi thud By gt ching at em shy cis tho te dog nh od hy agp ein Bing Bi pi lp em eho th ak i dg YT ng nag ng AT, gb i ag lc dng ns MPC x AT. Ta Ky tah Ya, ih by id seven hm Nh ching ith tren 9-6 ing chi hig ich eda ma dean bing MPC x AT. Di 2g cia nen kinh te chuyén trdiém A sang diém B, + Gh eha v6 tan ne: ening a chong minh qu dl 8 nby nu Seu. Cho sn cha we pong ah yw ay phuong te ti ht ri prueng inn sau, ening ta doe ey hay ata = mye zeit) és 2. chi a CN tr ath a gee phi nd hh dig ni dng sm chit wp. BS dang prog ah vecyenstes iy wp ching a use ar Ca¥ 660 ia a8. ching to aie ee Sarid = 143-6) Kt qud may cong Sng nu pn nd bay Wen 638 265ang nhu bign phip ting mua hang cia chinh phi e6 téc dung khuyéch dai thu rnhtp, chinh sch wim thud ciing ed tie dung nhw vay. Nhu di trinh biy trong phiin true, thay di ban dw eia eh tiou duce khuyéch dai mie 1/(1-MPC). Tie dung tng eng etia chinh sich thay doi thué doi v6 thu nhap bing: AYIAT = - MPC/(I-MPC) Cong tite tren dye go! [A mba ti dhue: te tuorg thu nhip thay ait tome ting vi mot do tn thay d6i eta thué. ¥F du, néu khuynb hung tiew dong ein bien 12 0,6; nih tr thus 8 bang: AY/AT = -0,64(1-0,6) = -1,5. 1 do Ia thue fim cho thu ahap ean bing tang, Trong vi dy niy, bign phip c: = them 1,5 do ta Hinh 9-6, Bign php edt giim thué trong giao iém Keynes Taxmot mite tu np bai kno ign hip edt gidm thué & mite AT tam cho ch tien de Kigh tang them mot lugng iong ding bing MPC x, AT. Trang thd: ean ‘ing chuyén ir didn A same ddim B, con ‘thu np vang tit Yen Yo, Trang sruing hop navy, ching 1a cing thay rang chinh siich tai chinh 6 tae dung khuyéch dai 455 vi tu nip Gaucho vd ot Doe Ging a te, eS ta an rm ceh ing ni i dung mB chit pada. Lau tng pune tnt Yropeneies "s¥ =C (s¥ 41) in a chang ta dune: svat =-ci-c) él qu ny cig ng nu pn tinh bay an, 265 NGHIEN CUU TINH HUONG 9-1. Kennedy, Keynes va chinh sich cat gidm thué nam 1964 Khi John Kemnedy ti thinh ting thong MY vao nam 1961, Ong da dua den Oasinhion movs6 nha kinh te ué ti bx tong thoi KY U6 vio Lim vige weng Hoi dong 8 vin Kind t€, C¥e ni inh t& due dio t3o theo tinh tin Kin t€ hoe eta Keynes ay «65 dav 1 twig eda Keynes vio ee cue thio lujn Ve chinh sich kin © ica exo nb. Mot trong ahiing kien nghi dtu tien eta HO dng Ki tang thu nhgp que din bing ‘cil gina thus. Chinh sich nay tt nhign din dn vige edt gidm ding & thue thi nap ei nan vi cong ty viw nam 1964. Mue tigu eda edt gidim thu Ib khuyén Khich tang chi tigu eho tigu dang va du ty, din dn mie thu nhap va vige fam exw hon. Khi mot ‘ha bio hii Kennady tai sao Iai ting ho ehinh sch eit giim thus, Kennedy tri loi: "Dé kich thich nn kinh 1. Ong khOng nhé hoe tfinh kinh té hoe 101 Ong di hoe sao?" aing nhu ee e& vin kinh 1 eda Kennedy dy don, chinh sich eft giim thut din Ach thi ky bing a6 kinh U6, Te do tang trang cia GDP thue WB 5,3% nam 1964 vi. 6,0% nim 1965. Ty Ie that nghigp gidm tr $,7% nam 1963 xwsng ein 5,2% nim 1964 vi 4,5% nim 1965, (Cie nh kinh t vin tgp tye tranh ludn vé nguyen nha tao ra su ting trudng aban ‘ching ny Vio Gav nhing nam 1960, Mat nhém ede ahi kinh tC doe goi Ki ee nhi trong cung lap lun ring bing n6 kinh te fa ket qui eda higu ing Kiet thich do chink heft giimy thud thy ahip 190 ra, Theo quan diém eda ho, khi cOng nhin duye phép ‘Iai phn thu nip kin hon eda minb, ho s® cung abu lao dong hon mot each ding é, qua dé lim tang tng eung ve hing hia va dich vu. song nhiing ng theo Keynes Jai nhin manh tic dong cia chinh sich eft giim thue doi v6i tag ctu. Ho evi ehinl sich cit giim thué nam 1964 fi thir nghigm thaah cong cia ehinh séch Gi chin mi ny va minh ching cho tinh dking din eda kinh t€ hoc Keynes. Lai suat, déu tu va duéng IS Giao diém Keynes ehi [4 mot bute dat na méng ten con dudng phit tién mo hinh 1S - LM eda ching ta, Gino digm Keyoes rit b6 ieh, vi né chi ra yéu 15 quyét din thu 5. Hy xem phn kn eda Arthur Okun v6 inh ech ct gm th nd 1964 doce nh kin 6 cds Kennedy dara rong "Tinh An ing ein ehin sch eBt gti AS nb 1960 Ads 267snhap cia nm kinh 18 tai Mink (a) v= hon di tt kai su tang we 1 den rs fare gidim daw we de high er Hr) suing con U2). Hinh (bd v8 gia diem Kesnes: daw ut die bitin gidin tie Herv) sudng en Hera) fam cho tha whip iin ve ¥ sing Y2, Hinh (c) vé dicing 1S bide hién andi quan he situ lai sudt va thu mhyip: tai suit edng cao, thu nh igo, thu nip eang thap, (a) Ham dau tu Tir) lind 7 Dae 1 du itn, Tay en, dn ni khong thue 0 ring du wr dy kign khong thay Adi, Nhu da hun te thé haya td Ke ph the h bay 6 ehuemg 3, ch sual theo quan he ty Ig mghich, ne (b) Giao diém Keynes f foc 2 foo baer i 10 nh Y “Th hp sin omg (Dung 18, Pr 1s nH ¥ Thu ahip, sin amg, Hinh 9-7. Cach ve duimg 1S DE ds them mei quan be wit Hai ust va eu tw ode iu tu di kien abu sau: Ham du te my de v8 tong Hn 9-7 3 . Wong hh 9-7 (a) Vi su hi phi vaya cho dy dn dau 04, nen khi tii swat tang, dau tw du ki¢h sé yim. " ” 268 “40 mo hinh, ching ta biéu thi Wn ‘Chung ta e6 thé sit dung him esu tu va d thi giao digme Keynes dé xe din xem {hu nip thay di nr th no Ki Ii sult thay di, Vi eu tw 26 mai ign be ty 1€ nghich vi Ii sua, vige Ii sul tang tir Len r2 Lam gi lugng dw tu tr [(r1) zu6ing edn Tira) Sut gm sit trong dau tw du high fam dich chuyén hata chi ti¢u xuding dui bu trong hinh 9-7(b). Do vay, tin trang iim di tw dr kig Kam dich ckuyén him chi gu din dén mite thu nha tip hom, do do Kam tang bi su va thu aha gi, Dudag 1S tm cit moi quan he gid i sus vA chu ahs edt ra tir ham dy tu va giao diém Keynes. Lai suit cing cao, mie du tw dy kign cng thap, do dé thu mba. ing thap. Vi vay, ding IS dsc xusng, nh trong binh 9-7 (e) ‘Chinh sach tai chinh lam cho duéng IS dich chuyén nhu thé nao? Dung 1S chi cho charg ta bist mic thu nhgp tai bat ky mie ching ta d3 bit te giao diém Keynes, thu nhip eng phy Ul h. Dudng IS duge v8 cho mot chinh sich thi chinh abst dink. Ditu d6 €6 Jn tai chink thay d3i, dutmng chi ghia li, duimg 1S gi G va T ef dinh. Khi chinh si IS sé dich chuyén. Hinh 9-8 sir dung giao diém Keynes dé phan tich xem khi mic mua hing cia chinh phi tang tir Gy ten Go, dug 1S dich chuyén nh thé nio. dduye vé eho’ mute [ij suat F nhat dink, do d6 cing cho mute dw tw dy kign nhat dinh. Giao digm Keynes chi ra ring, st thay di nay trong chinh sich ti chinh Kim ting chi icu dy kigh va thu nnhap cn bing ti ¥; fen Y2, Do do, khi mua hang cia chinh phi tang, duiimg 1S dich cchuyén ra ngod Ching ta e6 thé sir dung giao dim Keynes dé phan tich xem nbing thay AS Khe trong ehinh sich ti chinh Lim dich chuyén duimg IS nbu thé nio. Vi ign phép gid ‘hue eiing Lam tang ehi gu va thu map, nén n6 edng Kam dich ehuyén ding IS ra got. Ci bin phip et iim nwa hing eta chia phi, va tng thus dou fam gm thu np; do d6 Fam dich chuyén dum IS vio trong. Tomlin IS chi ra mi quaan be wits 1a st vd thu nnd tren eh ervemg hang nda va dich vy. Bung IS dae vé eho mot chinh stich tai chink mbt din. Bat k3 sw ‘inh. sich tai chink Idan tng nu cin v8 hang ha va dich vu cing thay doi nao tron aan cho duaing IS dich chusén v8 ben phii. Bat &% su thay dit nav trong chin stich tai chink tam gic nhu cit v8 kang hoa va dich vu cing lam eh ducing IS dich chuyéin v8 ben wri Ay, 269(2) Giao diém Keynes Hinh (a) cho tha’y bhi mua hang cia ehinh + phi tang, chi view de kid eaing tang tai b AS ie ai sud mado Sir dich chuyen ten hia trén ciia chi tien dw kién mot Rhoding ing AG tam cho thu hap tang thém mou lugng bing AGI MPC). Do dé wong hin (b), dong IS dich ‘huyén sang phat mor ‘vam, nhue thé i. y r ‘Tou ap sie amg () Duime 1S Lae % Y Thu at, me Minh 9-8. Kili mua hang cia ehinh phi ‘ang, duimg IS dich chuyén sang phi Cach gidi thich duéng IS bang vén ‘vay 270 Hy nha lai ring dng nhat thie ti khodn thu nhap quo dan e6 thé viet dus dang: Y-C-GeI s V6 tri eda phuemg tFinh ndy 1a tet kigm qude dn S, bang tng cits Fit kigm wo nan Y - TC va tict kigm eong cong T- G, Ve phi 8 daw tw I. Tiet kigm quéie dan fu tw Diu thj clu VE von vay. bigu thi cung ve vs vay Dé xem thi trvimng von vay tao ra dutmg IS nhur thé nao, ching ta thay C bing him tieu dung ‘bang him fw tw: Y¥-CY-1)-G= 10) ‘Ve trai cia phuomg trinh nay chi rv ring cung ve vén vay phy thude vio thu nhap* vi chink sch tai chinh, Ve phi chi raring eau ve von vay phy thude vae 18i suit. Lai suit digu ehinh wii khi 6 sw ein bang cung elu ve vn vay. Nhu hinh 9-9 cho thi, ching ta e# thé gidi thieh dwimg IS Khi chi raring. Jam cA bang thi teuimg von vay tai mie thu nhap bat ky mio. Khi thu nhdp tang ti Y1 Wi Yo, tit kigm quoe dan Y - C - G edng tang. (Titu ding tang it hon thu nh vi khuynh hung ticu dng cd bien nhé hun 1). Cung vé von vay tang lim cho Iii sust gi tir ry xuGing 12. Duimng 1S 16m tit moi quan he sau: thu nhap cao hom din dé tst ‘cho mie Iai suat can bang thaip hon. Vi vay, ding IS sus kkiem eao hun vai dieu dé 1a doe xuding. (0) Thi teuimg vn vay (©) Duong 1s : SIT) SY) 4 Liens Laisutt hes 18 Ts % Y Y aw eK Tha ap Sn eng Hinh 9-9. Lf gidi dudng IS bing vin vay 18 vin vay. Bude IS trong hinh (b) bid Hinh (a) chi ra réng thu nhip tang ti ¥, ‘tht mai quan be 0516 ngliich ita thu 1a Ya Laan tang 18 kigin va do 6 tana sic Iai suai, din dn e6n bang cung eda nlp ve lai sud 5 nmve duimg IS cing cho thay tai sao sy thay di trong. chinh sich hin im dich chuyén dvimg 1S. Bien phip ting mua hing cia chink phir hay edt thug dieu fim giim tet kigm qusie dkin tai moi mde thu Hhap. Sy gidm sit cia cung i din den cin bing thi truimg. Vi lai suit bay gir eao hum ‘moi mate thu nhap, nen duimg IS dich chuyén Ken trén dé thich dng vii sw thay 6 inh chat mi rOng trong chink sich ti ein, can lu ¥ rang duimg IS khong quy dink thu nbapy ¥ vi Ki swat r, mit be gida Y va r phat sinh tren thi truimg ing hoa va dich vu, hay a6 ‘wong duumg Ly thi truimg von vay. Dé xie dink trang thi cin bang ea nitn kinh te hing ta cin phil xem xét moi quan he Khe nda gid hai big s6 ny. Dé la digu ehing ta sé de cip dein ér phi sau diy. 9.2. Thi truéng tién té va duéng LM Duiimg LM fi moi quan he gid 13 suat va thu nlp hinh thin ton thi trutmg ve 86 du tign t@. DE higu moi quan he nay, ching ta bit iw bang vige xem xét mot I thuyét dom win vé i suit due got li IY thuyét ve sue wa thich thank khodin. Ly thuyét vé sy ua thich thanh khoan Ly thuy¢t vé stra thich thanh ksi fa each Keynes ve li suit. Cong nhu giao diém Keynes dat nén ting cho duimg 1S, lj thuyét Ye sir a thich thanh khosin dat ngn ting cho duimg LM. Ly thuyét nay widi thich cung va elu ve sh dur tign 0 thue 18 (vin dé ching ta dl nghign cu trong chumg 6) quy dinh 15 suat abe the nie. dom gin aha ww tum Ching ta hy bat dau bing cung ve 9 de tit t@ thue 18. Néw goi M fi cung ting sien te vi P La mie gid, tht M/P 1 cung ve sé er ign Ue thu t&. Ly thuyét v8 su ua ‘hich thanh khexin gid dinh cung ve si du tign 1 thu t e6 dink, nen: (Min) = HP ‘Cung ve tién @ M Ii mot big chinh sich ngosi sinh do ngan hang trung uumy quyet dlink. Mie gid P eang 1a mot bien ngoai sinh trong m6 hinh nay. (Chung ta eoi mie gi 18 cho truce, vi md hin IS-LM - mue ticu cao aht tong chuumg nly = nghién oxy hang vin dé nein uid khong di. Gil din may ney ¥ rang cung ve si du ten wth t& e6 dinh, ew thé La Khong phu thude viv lai sua. Khi dat cung vB sb we ten tne trong mim he vi Ii sul nh rong hinh 9-10, ching ta ec dud tung thing ding am, Khim m2 Wnt get ie ep a i r con wie MiP Minh 9-10, Cong vé sé dur tien ¢@ thu té Pang ung ves ction w¢ Ua tng ding, ica hing ph tae vo CChuing ta 66 thé bigu din nhu edu ve s6 du tim 16 thue 18 nh sau «wiry = Len) “ign ai at va Tung chu v8 6 dur that t€, Dung elu may dsc xudng, vi Iai sudt eng hm Kam gin yng eu ¥e 6 dr the wa. , a ung 18. Ne in ds a, i cg i is i yw ug, el ci | arn nid a et ay i es, on ne cng esau tpn phat ‘ay nde Bigt gids 151 sual thyc 1 va II sua éanh nghia, Vai Ws cbs: {bo ua am pat acto y ode hat ona hh IS-LM 8492 6 cp dn ong ehusng 10 M36 273 as KTV 6. Lu yng & iy «du7 rr Hh 911 wu uve a6 Vi Idi sudit ta chi phi ctia vige git tién, nee (ai suit cao lam gid amg vitu ve " uP Minh 9.12. thay vs ua thie than kosn Laut de hi cho whi arsenide tha ing cm. DS 1 hae vu ion 9 I a, ching Ap ang cv 9 i Hn 9-12. Theo thet vt thch anh hai, sat dou cee ae can bing thi trwdng tin t8. Tai mn s aang a rm Tai mie Iii sua edn bing, layne, iu ve sO dr ttn tthe Su dieu chinh cia I5i suf ti dim ct etm eh ie chink sn cna minh KA Ist Koa ee me Khi Iai suat khong dat mie ean bing. New 274 tai ust qué cao, Ing cung ve 86 dr tdn W thu U8 viet qua Iwemy eB. Nhiing nguit te qué nhigu tin t¢ tim eich chuyén s6 tien khong dem Iai I sus thash Cin gil ngs fang hode tri phi¢u dert lai Ii suit. Ngan hing va newt phit hinb ti piu - nhdng thuimg thich tri fi suat thi - phin dng Iai tinh trang du cung ve tién nay bh 'm mae Lai suit ma hy san sing ted, Ngut lai, néu Iai stat qui thip, nén lum Chu ve én vuyt qu cung, moi new bn ui phicu hose rut ten ra kisi eae mgAn hang Ca digu nay Kim ting Ig suit, Tai mie 1 swat ein bing, mot ngudt dtu hi Kong vo tai sin bing tin vi khong phi bing tién ea ho. Ly thuyét vé saw thich thanh Khia ngu ¥ cing, sr wkim sit cia cung ve ttn 1@ fon Ging {ai swat va si gia tang cung vt tidn t€ Fim gdm i suat, Dé wid thie IY do 16, ching ta hay gid din rang Quy Du tei Lign bang est gidm cung dmg tien t. Vie M kim sé in gidm M/P, vi P trong mo hinh nay khong thay dé, Cung v8 s6 dur tig te thue «8 dich chuyén sang tsi, hw trong inh 9-13, Lai sust ein bing tang tr fi lon r, Lii suit cao han hig moi nyc muon yi amg 86 dur ign tthe 18 it fm. wp MP MiP Hinly9-13. Bign phip edt giim cung ting tién té trong by thuyét ‘vé su ua thich thanh khosin Sweet gid cong eae ten t@ ue My suing — vi ante ghd Kling thay dit, Dowdy, li ii cung ve so due tgs 16, suit ean bang tang tir Ken can My fam g NGHIEN CUU TINH HUONG 9-2, Paul Volker, chinh stich thét chat tién té va su gia tang Iai sudt u nhimg nim 1980 i ching kien tinh inh fam phat gion manh nh sited dai ¢ MJ, Vio cust ning nam 1970, kam pit dat dh This ky d vi nhanh nit trong at in 275shh seh thi chat ten eh vay tc dong me the mado dn i su? Cau tt Ly oe vo do di thin gian. Phan tich cua ching ta v8 hes ting Fisher chav 6 dante CaME 9 thay i chin sich ten eda Volker im ee am phat Kauh aehia, Ty nhien 1 thuyei ve sw ua hich than kota ce ing trong ngin iv eid i Gn dinh, chin seh tdn t@ ni vau nie tice ch, 1g lam pit s8 $6 du om 16 thue va ing Ii suat dan ghia it KS ut 6 dup hap vi thu tin. Teong nhng nam IRD lai suat dan e si im pit wim. Nhung so ii nam true ki es tuyen bth ie 10-1959 ce er atte ching ta thay eng si de ttn we thue te Mdehae cho CPD wii 83% {a8 suit dank nghia it theo ky phi thaomy may tang ti 10.1% ten 119%. Do seg cin sich that chat enw kim gli ai suit trong di ‘inv tang Li sua trong ngin han, “hun tm dingy thuyet ve st ue tc than Khun dé hit {a 03 thdy rang fl suit cin bing » mie Ii suit lane ca bing e “in = 1h hue vi thu hp. Dm LM biguth nc quae he ‘ea thu nhap vii hon nay, ching ta gi dinh rang ehi ei sult ma ic dong dcn hg ci ve Me 1 Ni eu the hon, mit th nap Y cng tie wf i hu Chu Wién te, Khi np cae cans £0, dd 0 giao oh phil sit dung ttn niga hee cay i th Ahi exo um ain dé nhu cu tem eau am tag sit, chang ta viet him lu ve tien tg nhur sau: (wry = Len.y) june cha ve 6 tien thud quan hs 1 age we Voi thu np, sus v2 Fe chun Koi sw dusy 1y thuyet vé su wa thich than Khoa 14 wil 1 suat kh thu ahdp thay dé. Vi do. ehun a xiy ahi thu hip tang tir ¥1 len Y2..Nhw minh how 6 hiah 9.14 18 eda thy hap fam sch chuyén duting edu tga W ra phia ngoai, Dé can Dang thi truimg ve so de titn te “iMe 1. ut phi tang rs Ten. i vay thu ap ence din don i suit cao hem, xiy 26 (ah 7 rg in ie o . 3 oer 7 Hink 9-14, Cach v8 dutmg LM oo LM bid didn moi quam he gies bai suit vd thu nhap: thu rhdp eang cao, i sudt “ang cao. Hink (a) bide din hi tring v2 36 de the 18; Thu nig tang tit ¥4 ten Ya lam tang nu cd v8 tin 1, qua dé fam tang {ai sudt tr ry Len ra. Hinh (b) vé dng t va Iai suat: Thu nbap cig cao, nh ‘quan he gida thu ahap va Th i cng coh biéu thi ny " vl cau ve 58d tho cng ene utc ng cing cing [5 thet ve su us thichthash Khon fi moto hin dom gin ven su LY thayGt miy coi ung tng ttn 1 va me gi la yeu 6 nyoat sinh v4 a Teh ‘Ans il seat dieu ehinh dé en bang cung elu ve 56 dtm ts thy te Neh y ‘ng s gia ting cung ve tign t¢ fam gin Iai sua ani ching t cho phép ci wes dy thue (© phu thude vo thu nhap qute dan, tht 17 et ve su wa thich thanh Khan Kyo a mdi quan he gid thu nlp va lad eae RAE the nkip cao im ting 36 du thye te, do dé Fim ting li sult. Dun LM wo 4t moi quan be ty 1é hun nay yida thu nhgp va lai sus, * Mo hinh IS = LM ket hup ede yeu 16 cia gieo dim Keynes va ede yeu w oie y {inet ve sua thich thanh Khodn, Gao diém eia ding IS vs dune LM cla rte Hi sua va thu nip tha mins edn bing ea ed th rainy hing boa va ie ae Cac khdi nigm then chet ‘Mo tinh 1S - LM Duvng IS ‘Nha tir mua hing cia chinh phi LY thuyet ve su wa thich thank khosin Duvng LM Giao diém Keynes Nhan tir thu cau hai én tap iii thich tai sap chnh sich thi chinh €6 tie dung 1. Side gino sm Keyes 3 yesh dt tw ap ue dn in ii pve iene ss thigh ha Kod dpi ths cng ¥ dng thay v8 ch Wich no cee ana i a Kh i hich, cn ra gi Th gh me 3, Tai sav dudng IS dée xucng? 4, Tai sav dung LM doc len? Bai tap va van dung |. Sir dung giao digm Keynes dé gidi thich tie ding ei bign phip: a, Tang mie mua hing ea chinh phir b. Tang thu! «©, Tang mua hiing eda chinh phi va thué @ mie nhwrnhaw «digm Keynes, gist hm teu ding d3 eho fi C= 200 + 0,751 -T) 2. Trong gi Dit td kign bang 100 mus hing ei ehinh phi va thus déu bing 100. a, Viet chi teu dy kign de dang mot him ci thu nbd. b. Mae can bing cia thy nhap fa bao mhigu? «. Néu mu ng cia chinh phi ing itn 125, me thu np cin bing md bao nhieu? d. Mua hing cia chinh phii phai bing bao nhidw dé dat duge thu ship Late . » Aases aah nung aha nt: yee aut Chg yh bay he thong thue bang eich viet mac thu tr thus dui dang: TT+y ' “Trong d T vit li cae tham 36 cia fut thus. Tham 56 & 18 nae thu bign: chu np ting them 1 dla, tha v8 thus tang them x 1 da 1, He thoing thug nay Em shay di ech thie phi dng cia tieu ding di vei nhng, thay di eda GDP abu then’ . He thong thué ny fam thay dé phn tng ca ném kin 1 di wo nhing thay {Si trong mie mua hang eda ehinh phd nhw thé nao? 440 281*Y Him thay dio eco dong Me O88 a ang tit Kin trong si - c=Trey-ty Thong 46 Cb tham so due yo ec cp #188 Xiy ra doi v6i thu nhap can 6 4 Ign & 9 pm au egg ot MAP €4N Be Kbi x hoi it ey itu eh xay ra di vai tet kee i sao ban Ini coi ket 4. Nahich ty may o6 xuse ©6 Va tai sa0 khong? bing? qui may Li ghich Wy eva dik higa trong mo bink es ign chung Trong 6 r 1a lai suat wa i ° H Cung Vi clu v8 so du tiga t¢ thue 1 mess “a Ci ROE i 8 3 xy a i suat can i i fi il SE xy ra d0i vi Iai suat eg bing ncu.cune “ Nei Quy Du ist Lien bang musa nan, i seit Ten 79%, né cn quy dink mac ns MUON nang Iai seat I = 7 h 282 “ie khiynh hung teu ding cin bign, 3 khong? Tai sao CHUONG 10 TONG CAU I Khose hoe la mgt ngdnh AX sinh: cng ed nhiéu benls mhdn th si 16 wi en WE hoe ring das due nhieu tien bo; va chinh beak fam ndy sinh edch chiar bgnh. Nam 1932 li dy eta euge Dai ses hex ve cho dit mcd mang, mink edt ho vit dé ok sinh ra mi ‘mn hoe méi ma ngaiy nay: ehninng ta go Ia Kink 18 mah Paul Samuelson nh vii rae eda md hin IS-LM Iai vi ng ten thi trutig hin hoa vi dich va, con duimg LM bieu thi trang thi edn bing teen thj tring 6 de tty 1 thye (€ va ed hai dng IS vi LM ding this quy¢t dinh thu hap quée din trong agi, ign, khi mie gid 26 inh. Bay gid, ching ta ehuyén sang ting dung md biah dS, Cham : nay sir dung mo binh IS-LM dé phi teh ba vain é nguyen nha tidm ting din dén nhing bic dong cba ih xe hon, ching ta sit dung mo hinh IS-LM dé xem xc: sir thay doi eda ce bid ngoat sinh inh fusing nhur the nio Wi ede bicA nO; sinh, Vi cchinh sich th chinh vi tien té Et nhung bith ngoai sink, nén mo hin IS-LM cho thy ching sinh hung nhu the mio ti née kinh t€ trong ngin han, Md tinh nay eng eh? uly ning bicn Jong tren thj trakmg tien «¢ va thi rudmy hing hs tie dm tnt inh t nhur the nav, ‘Teong chuvng 9, cing ta Thit whdi, ching thu nbgp quse dan, Néi el Thit acing ta eng chi ra mie do phi hyp enn ting cung vi vine ev da bin dé trong champ 8. Die big cing tp 1 hin IS-LM Tam ke nod dra thuyetv& dmg tng ct. Gay. ching tab a dang dom gin oh, md inh nay Khong phn bie gia cong nhanreg rg anhign Ma biah thong tin Khong hain hio wid dah mdi hd eung ep trong rién kind \s 32 Aull mat loathing ini‘ duy mh va isu ding miu lost Ring hoe hy e nha. Vi Sma Ming hoa qua in, ef aki cang exp king thé quan aitchone ti fe Iasi 6 tak moi thi cig, Io theo di chat ché git sn phim ma he ein vane uns GaP, pune Khong thé theo di chat eé gi cia hing hoa ma ho tee sling. Do thong {in khong hoi iio, doi khi ho Hin lon pita su thay die i edt gidm lam phat nkanb chéng thuimg es ty Ie hy sinh nh hem {ruimg hap cat gidm lam phit cham, Nghia 1a, nguwe vii dieu ma deting Phillips bao lim ky vong thich nghi du kign,“ligu php s6c" tra it wn kém hon phone php eit «skim lam phat tr ti, Him na, ede nue e6 ning thé ehé quy din tea len Hnh hoat ching han hap ding lao dag ngéin hue, e6 ty Ie hy sinh no hom. Nhing phat hi¢n nay cho thaly vige eat gidm lam phat luon tuon gay ra mot 96 tn that, nung chins thé che e6 thé ink hung dén quy m0 cia nd. a 11.3. Cae xu huéng phat trién gan day: Kinh té hoc Keynes méi Cite nha kinh -€ khong nha tri ve eich (61 nbat dé Iy gid nhitng big dong kinh te ngdn han. Co hai truimg phi te ting kin: kinh t€ hye 66 dign méi vA kinh té hoe Keynes mi. Cac nha kink t€ eé dien méi ing Wo nhiing mo hinh trong U6 tién lweng vA gi c dlicu chink nhanh chong dé cd bang thi ruimg. Nhing mo hinh ean big thi trang ‘rinh bay trong chuung nay - mo hinh han thife sai fim cia cong nin va théng tin khong hodn hao - duge hw het ee nhi kink, t6°e6 dién moi biet tai trong nhing natn 1970. Gin day hon, nhitu aka kinh técé dign méi chuyen su chi ciaho vioLy thuyéi chu &Y kinh doanh thue 1€ , mt IJ thuyét dp dung cae gido Iy eta ms hinh c6 din - ching han nhs ei ed lish hoat va tinh trung lap cia tien 1¢ - dy gii bien dOng kin "6. Chiing ta sé tinh bay Iy thuyet niy trong chung. 14. Céc nha kinh 4€ Keynes mai tin ring mo hinh luge nhimg bién déng k nh t6 agin han virho ting ho ion Luong cing, hic. Trong eudn L¥ thuyei Tong quai, Keynes inh te tb exe inh de 66 dign che rang tie wang va si cd nhanh ching du chinh dé can bang thi Ne? aay{ruimg. One nhiin manh ring tng ed ta yeu 6 true het uy dinh thu hap qude din ‘ong thoi gian ngn. Cae nh kinh t& Keynes méi vip nh ket lug ew bain nay Tone inh ve nghign ey, ce nk kth 8 Keynes ni eo ging pit tig dy da fan pharm php tgp etn cia Keynes ve btn dong kinh (Nhu cong coh ghien sy gre Rl Keynes mi hating vio vice hoan chia i thuyet v2 ting cung Ming eae |y wii bigw hien ca tien baamg ¥: rong thoi gian agin. Ching tim cach xc dirh hit ak ca Ais ne nh chat khong hon ho cua th teuimg im che ttn ane Ii ata ares. tng nb Lim cho men inh dieu chink chim chap Kh quay toe Ae Ru te ahién, Tromg tam nghign edu Khe ein phii Keynes mii Is ton hidoey te gauge ting cho m0 bin eda ching ta ve bien dong kinh te. Tron mue ni cig (2 tinh bay mot vai xu hung nghien edu mi ny. Chi phi thyc don nhé.va anh huéng ngoai hién cla téng cau Mot ly so lim cho gid ea khong thé dieu chinh ngay ta P tte trong thi yan nin {i nhitng chi phé-e6 lign quan den qui DE thay d6i gid ed eda minh, SRanK Reni 6 thé phe ede catao mn cho Khich hing, pi ph bang id mo cho nha vien bin hing cua minh hose. trong tung I ‘mi. Chi phi dé digu ehinh op hit hing, phi in thu dow i, due go la chi phi thue don, im cho eae doanh nghigy th gi i, chit Khong digu ehinh liga tue Kit A€ khong oh tr ve vig eh phi the dom ey gid dave vin eng ME sided rong thi pian agin hay kone. NAdng newt hod mshi lp hers Ring thy Sat tate stem thurmg etn. Lm the no ma ei ph hue dom nh ne vay bo de sb thin IY gi ef cute suy thsi gay ra dn tha to in cho xa oi! Nhore ges fe Raone si tht ehi phi thye dom dip lai ring no Khong os ng la khong gay ra bau quai: me dd chi ph thue dom nh doi vi mot doanh nghigp i -nhuny ching 6 the gay ra higu ding Kin doi vGi nem kinh t6 ni chung thia nhan ning dn hug ngoai hign cia 'a mot doanh nghiép Lim Iwi cho ede doanh, nehigp kle trong rém kinht€. Khi mot doanh nghit gdm wi n gid bin n tang ai du tign t¢ thye t8. Su gia tang so duc tign t€ thue rare Dhan tH Ong tng cu (Sing eich dich ehuyén dug LM ra phia neon), Se ny tOog inh 16 den lot Ia tin tang nbu tu ve sin pins eb tit cae inant uubien An ling kinh 1 vi ano iy ein su dtu chin gid ed do mot dasgh nghigp SiMe hen Wi wi nh chu v8 sin phim cia tA ed ede domnh nghigp tide tone voi ink acing ngoai hign eva téng cau Khi ten ta ‘nt hating ngoai hign eta tng edu, chi phi thee dam nh e6 thé fam cho gid ea eas ‘hdc, vi si ting nic miy wy a tn that kin cho 4 hi, Gil sir bon 332 Cor hi ra quyét djnh, nén doi khi nd khong tri duge chi phi thie don vi Sy dan chéo nhau cua tién long va gid cd A fs jr uy dinh itn twomg va gii cd méi Gane e¢ dm cho tién hamg va mic gid chung diéu chanh Ching ny em vy, im oh i eit enh ay ed si a in iho my thing thin gettin yg nine nt DD hn ot peeing thang an iy Ng 0 Att ee danni ing sve Ce fn hn i Dog nh ihung cae nha doanh nghigp nay khong thé ting gid qua nhiéu, ere a iia ho vio ngay 15, st¢ ting gid cua bait ky doanh nghigp nao AP4 3396 ¥A UF Ie that nghigp tw nhien fi 6 binh quan cia thit nghigp wong hai 340 tus Cho an, hin sich i ho cng . the» dn win; each Kim nay dim bio cho ca lan phit wa that nghign «eu thip trong nygiy bau et. Vige tim aig dang nn kinh t& dé phue vu cho mue tieu Using ei dwse gor Li clu Ay kink doank ehinh tri v3 hign nay duve nie whi kinh 1S Vi hhow hge gin ve ehirh tri tang euting nghicn ev, Sy hod nghi dBi vi ede nha chin tri Kim eho mgt si nha Kinh te Kon tigag dt phi dat ehinh sch kinh (€ ngodi vony ewong t6a eda ehinh tri. MOt 36 nguri Khuyén nighi sia déi mot <3 digm trong high plsip, ching han dit ra yeu edu v8 edn bing ngin sich - mot digu khosin si bude bin tay eda ee ahi Lim Wuat vi im cheng kinb te khang bi eda ts bi su bat ei va chil nghia eu hoi NGHIEN CUU TINH HUONG Nen kinh té dudi thoi cae ting thong Cong hoa va Dan chi Chin ding ekm-qayén tie dong vio sgn kinh t nhw thé’ nio? Cie chuyen gin rnghign edu nhimg ein dé lien quan dee kinh 1€ VA chinh ti dvi dang tim Wi cho eau Wt ny. Mot phat hign ly dh fi hai ebinh ding & My dung nhw di thye thi chinh sich kinh t€ vi md kliée nau mgt cdeh e6 he thong, sia GDP thue t trong mbi khda bin nam cia nnhigm ky ting thoug tram 1948. Ching ta hay ehd J ring mée ting tru’mg luon luo thip, va thudiag mang ditt am, trong nam thi hai eta ehinh quyén Cong ht. Sau trong, bbiy nam mia GDP ge t€ gim 14 nam thi bai bode thi ba eta ehinh quyén Cong hia Nguue Iai, ngn-kinh t€ thuiing phye Ndi 1 thir hai va thir ba cia chinh quyeo Dan ha Bing 12-1 tinh bay ting teuding : bign nay Ei hai ding €6 mdi quan tim Kée nau v8 lam phi vi that nghigp. Noha Ta, khing nin coi ee nha ehinh tr 1a abing mit et hoi mit chi nén coi hy Fi ning ngudé 66 chin kign ridng, Nhimg agua Cong, hia ed ve ‘ght Lam phit how nbn nguisi Dan chi, Do décho theo dus ehinh sieh thu hep ngay sau khi Len eZinn quyéén v3 sin sAng ehju dumg mot eude suy thos dé eit giam lam phat. Nhving nguisi Dan chi theo dust ehinh sch mit rong nhiim cat gkim thit nghiep va si hiv dung haar qui fi lam phat es6 hen, Khi phan tich tink hinh tag cung ine Mot eich Iy wit eh ph dv? 351Wen ching ty rng we ge hi a's hae, ein sich te ay ci his gant Cong hn Nh, ng hb hh fc nbau rit nhi¢u va qua trinh chink trisla mot ngudn Bbc Thi chi gay ef Thin hi gayi Ki cp ahi eich 1 th ih in 9 hg hay Sy Se chith sf am cho ni Kin thong ey we hi ‘king phi chin dg eet ehh Tag icu ki¢n Ap dung quy tac 6 dinh, Fed ‘khong thé thay d6i chink ew are r 'y d6i trong bi khong khi chinh dai han duye cdi thign. Mat khie, quy tée chink sch ches Mange oe cor i trong vige tae dong t6i chink sich kink 4am phat st hon tro ing theo dudi chiah ser sy ra bién dong kinh te Ding ching miy, ching ta van chur ide chinh seh 6 dinh, Mot mat, quy ich 6 dinh cing fm yim site monk wv ma, Tang trudng cua GDP thyc té tron; va Dan chit eS Ci chink quyén Dan chi Mam trong mh ks céc chinh quyén Cong hoa Téiig théng - The nhat ‘Thit hai, The ba ‘Thét tu — oa 9 Kemewiioiwon 27 Johnson, 9 y a sis 36 so 26 4a 45 4k 5 0s Binh quin 33 ot 4a BA ‘Nam trong nhigm ky Téng thin is nhait thing ThonhétThohai Tho thew Eisenhower 37 Eisenhower If Ww A | Nixon 27 a Nixor/Ford fa ie j Reagan I ie as | Reagan \s » s a 30 25 i Binh quan 3,0 = 352 Tinh bat nhat cla chinh sach tay nghi Gi sit ching ta tin tung var ee abit hogch inh ehinh sch eda orinb, Ui akin thong qua ehinh sich (iy nghi 6 ra au viet hon chin sich of dinh, Nét ve bun eh ‘chin sch ty nghi 1 chinh sich link host. Kh ede nhi hoch dink ebih sich 1A gui thong minh va ring hamg, ¢6 I ehting ta kbOny o6 Ij do gi dé Khong eho phe ho tay huhi hinh dng khi phit dng pho wii nhang dieu kign thay dé ‘Song clink sch ed dinh e6 thé wu vigt hon ehinh sich tay nghi Khi 6 bie tong, tien haw bat nhat (tink bat nhl) rong quai tinh thye thi chinh sich. Trong mots6 tinh hhigng, ede nh hoach dink ehiah sich mucin thing bio true enh sich mi ho sé theo dus nhdun te dong vio ky vong ela nha ra quy@t dinh tw nhan Nhung saw d6, sau khi ‘ce ni ra quyet dinh tu nha hinh dong tren cu sir ky vong ea hy, ee nh hoaeh dink chin} sich fai khong mucin Fam theo thong bao eit minh, Khi hit ede nha hoaeh dink tchinh sich khong nht quén trong inh dong. ede aha ra quyst dink tw nbn hoi mghi thong bio ehinh sich, Trong tinh the nay, dé to ra niém tin vao thong bio eta minh, ccie nhit hoach dnl ehinh seh fai mad eam ket the hign ehinh sieh e6 dinh, vf du khong edt ra tir ich ia nh nie trong vide Tinh bat nha dye minh hoa mot each dom gin mht Tinh vge Kind 18, mtr Fin vate eh i ~ cw thé a eink thuemy lung voit nhimg KE khiing xi dé giai thost con tin. Chinh sich cong bhai eta Fiiu het eie quée gia ka ho khang thiamg luung vé con tin, Mug teu eta cong Bs 06 1 ryan chan finh trang bon Khiing b6 bat ede eon tin: néu vige bit e6e con tin hudin fon kong e6 lui, bon khing bs hiinh ding bup ly sé khéing bat eGe con tin. Nui ech khic, imue dich eda eOng bei fa tie dng vio ky song eda bon khiing bd vit cua d6 vio hanh vi cin ching, Song tren thue 18, néu moi ngwii Khong in che rang ei aba hogeh dirk chink sich thve bign chinh sich da emg bo, thi vige cong bi €6 bie dung rat nbd. Boa Khiing, bo bict rang khi con tin di bj bil gid, e6 thé nhieu new mud chip nfm mot vai inhuime bo dé isi thedt ho. Cich duy hat d& ngdn cin bon kiting bé hin dong la khong cho phép ee nha hoaeh djnh ehinh sich tiy nghi inh ddng, wi bude ho pt tudn thir nguyen tée khong thavng hamg, Néu ede nha hogeh dinh ehiah sich thee sie ‘co kha nang nhuyng bi, bon khing bo hi nu khang es dong eet dé bait git eon hin tin \Véia fé twime tir nha khong bi tims nhur the seit higm twong qui inh twe higR hin sieh tign t2. Ching ta hiy sem xst tinh trang nan ii ei Quy Dy tnt Lign bang, Iki og pi quan tach et lam phat va that nehigp. Theo duimg Ph ‘i sida Lam phat va that nghigp ph-thude vio lam phit dy kién, Chie ebvin Fed mun tat fam phst thip, v4 nhur vay, n6 €6 date sitchin dt usa Io ng lam phat thap 18 mve tigu ti ‘si moi ngui dou du Kid DDE Hany gis fam phit dy kien, Fed thuimg tuyen 63 eewo eds chink eh ign 1. 4784 23 KTM 8Song bin than tuyén bs vi ehinh sich lam phat thip tw ns Khong dking tin eay. Mot thi Kj vong dl hin thinh, Fed e5 dong eu khong pit li hia news trong tuyen p> eit minh d8 eit ylim that nghign. Cie tie nin inh te tu aha nina chan khong {i vio cong b6 chinh sich. Gidng nhurvi Téng thong ‘ng true vin de hing hoiing ec gies thy daw in khi phi thong Iuemg dé yi that ho, Quy Du tet Line bang tt iy mahi nh cong cing cio they Kh tan Khi oh tng lam phe alc iim LIM nbigp, Song cng ah bon King BS Khong tin vi chah sch kone thumg two, fe He ohin kinh tty nhan Khong tin vo chioh sich fam phi tip di dove cing bo Kt lua bat ngiy eta phan tich nay fi di khi ede n fing dat due me view cia min ham do khong dae guy toy nigh {one truime hep bon khing bs nh dng hp. x8 ft com tn by a hoa, neu ee nha hoach dinh chinks sich en ef V8 tan * nhln fa tr cha thuemg lume dé gist that con nh sich tiga Keine 2a Mth ham ma Kho phi chi mie thi nghigp cao hom neu Pag et theo dus chinh sich lam phit tang Khong. Su bit nhit ea chinh sich tay nghi phit sinh trong nhigw hon eénh Khe nhaw Dui day. mot s6 vi du: + DE Khuyé Kfch dw ut, chinh phi tuyén bo 58 Kony inh thu’ thu nkap thu thé gh do thu gy © fa hang eich git eho mic tue tm do én din chit Rng phat bang eieh guy din Ie thu® ea trong mt nam hip to “nh kn t€goi chi “Sic nay El ue ung mi a. B pir eho mite dé Kh they J, mg ta ph chp nan tau hut tong nang nam th hp hip bat hmg (sy thos va eh iu ea ‘at thug (clin tran. “Thai ba, neu a es the sie dung tian hut mgd seh de chuye’n enh mang thus ela the he hign tai cho eae the’ hE damy fai, VF du, mot scimhit inh tS hip fad rang new the he hién tye phat phat cbong chien tranh dé iw ve Uw do, eie thé fe twmg lal sé €6 lui, De bude ning nguri thy hucmy tuamg lai pat vt mot ph ebi ph, the he hig tak co8 the 14 tre cho chin trank bane eich chap nhan thm hut nein sich. Chink phi 66 Ihe te lai 98 ng vay trong efien tanh bang each dinh thus vio the he tip thee. Nhang nguyen nbn ny Ki eho hau het ee nha kink te phi than quy the edn tt, quy bie ehw chink sick tat chinh ein phat tinh shan si thos vi chien tran, rong 86 wap 18 tia chink sh, bing ag doa ee tink hus | APO 357NGHIEN CUU TINH HUONG 12-6. TY 1 ng tren GDP qua hai tram ndim New so voi quy mo cia nén kink te, thi ny cia chink pha bign long tir Sine nea 1980 va du ahng nant 19%) Tat tvdng he eee ee He ban htm ht tn ch nian hg SIME ho gis tOng ny eda chinh phi 1a chica Teena ° 1790 18101430 1850 147018501910 T9308 T950 Nas ns _ Minh 12-2. TY 1¢ ng chink phi trén GDP tie nam 1790 a nay 2G ti ne cia chink phi MS dan tromg thoi bin, tt gat dogn it fe a hd eta wen kin VEME.TS 81980. kt 1§ 18 ng ten GDP tong ma '€ Fer tome thoi chin vd grim khong c6 cade ung dot quan s¥ tom nto 19701990 2010 Niu s cong bang gila cde the he, vige chi vio ma .vige ebiip nha {ranh (6 ra a ti wu, Tuy ahien, mf tham hut gin diy ne on 1 phe phsin tn inh th va eto ring chung ta dy chat cin cent pe pt ‘ham hut ngan seh Main "6 18 43 chit ginh wing thue kha len ese the he tuong lai mot eich eo 358 12.3. Két luan: Hoach dinh chinh sach trong thé gidi bat dinh ‘Trong chuung ny, ching tad phan tich xem chinh sich nén déing vai trd thy dng hay chi dng khi ¢6 ede biém dony inh té va nén duve thye hign thee quy tae ¢6 dinh hay tay nghi. C6 nbitw ly 1¢ dng ho ci hai phuong dign eta ede eau hot niy. C6 18 ket lun rd rang dy hat ( khong e6 tring hop don iin vi bit bude eho bat et quan digm eu thé nao ve chirh sich kinh tf md, Xét cho elng, ching ta phi 1y Ie kivie nhau, ea v8 cinh t€ va ehinb tr, va te miinh quyét dinh xem ehinb phi non «dong vai trd gi khi tim eich dn dinh ign kinb t6 Trong bit ei nh busing nao, ee nd Kinh t€ du dng vai tr then elt trong vige hhoaeh dinh cinh sich kin (Virén kinb tet phe tp, nén vai tr ny thug kh Xian, Nhung d eting bi dieu khong thé tinh Khoi. Cie ah kinh té Bho thé BS tay dicho den khi én thée cia ching ta vé nn kinh 1 ho’ hio mdi dew ra khuyén nghi- Khi cha dat dye mue ticu tn, a d6 vin phi e6 vin eho ede ahi hogch diah chink sich kin t€. Cho di dai khi it kh Khon, cong vige dé vin I eb ede nb kind te Vai t6 cia ede nha kinh 1 trong qué tinh hoach dink chinh sich edn yuot ra ngodi ppham vi 66 ain cho ede nha hoach dink chinh sich. Ngay ed nhing nhit kinh t€ trong hoe dug eting gidn tip tie dong ti chinh sich thong qua ede cing trinh nghien ‘minh. Trong phiin kt ludn cuba Li chuyet eding que, John Maynard cfu VA bai bao et Keynes hay sai, tu twig oda ete nha kinh (6 va trigt gia v8 chin tr via 66 sc manh 16m han nhieu so v6i quan nigm thong thing cua ching ta. Di ncn, the ici con bj che nge bi vai yéu U6 khie nda. Cae aha thye hinh nght ring minh khong he chiu anh huving cia gid tr unde, ten thye t€ lai thuing fino Te eta mgt 6 nha kin {8 qui e6. Nhiimg ké chm quyen mat tringhe due 1% phin bio eda chia efing cm thay yen long hon khi doe tie phim ma mot hoe gid hang xoing no d6 di viét mot vai Hien nay, aban dinh ny vin git nguyén gid tri nhu khi Keynes viet ra vio nam 1935 - chi e6 dieu hign nay nhi hoe gi hang xoang dé Igichinh Fa Keynes, Tom tat 1. Nhiing ngudi ang bo chinh sich chi dong cho rng ngu chinh sich thi chinh hoe ‘in t khong phn dng v6i ci ei s6e thi nén kinh t€ thug xuyea phi chiu dung ciel s6e t30 ra niin bicn dong bit loi doi v6i sin Iuumg va thét nghigp. Nhivu ni tin ring ehinh sch kinh t€ thinh cOng trong vige Gn dinh wen kinh t 2, Nhung gui ing bb chénh sich thy dag cho rng, vi ehinh sich i chinh va tia 1 gan vit do tee Keo di vA big cing, nén moi mu toan Gn dinh aém kinh U6 che 480 359a 4 Cac Khai Waal odin dn ket eve fim hon ka matin din, Ne {iu bat hien nay cia ching a v8 nn Kin & qui i, king de he din Taig chinh sich én inh thank cong vi ehinh vi vay. nha chin ‘ nguibn wie thug xuyen wy ra bia dng kinh i€ ich hig nay Ning neu Ging ho ehioh sich tay ngbi ap tudn rang quyi 4 digs kign eho cic nha hoach dinh ehinh wih hing “inh hung bat ngs ‘iy nghi Minh dong {ioe ph Lint host khi pixie ty Nivime meu ding 6 {Se chinh sich odin Kip lua rang ching ta khong. the wai i Mt tinh ehinh tH cho ting ee nha chine thutog vores {alfa tone qua tinh thue hien chinh sich kink & va dai hig sit dung ehinh sich Ki ke pive vu cho mue cu chin tea eine hes Need oe hee ap twan baiting 2” MS Ahwe Wien auy te ehinh sich ed dinh a pil quyet van ee bat nha igm then chét DO 8 trong v5 do try Chi si € cic eht ict chi dae ‘Cho ky kin doanh etn te, ie ahi tien te Cor che ww dn dink Phe phin eva Lucas Tinh bat mht Cau héi 6n tap Bo te trang va do t€ ngodi fa gi? Chin sich sich gm '¢ hay tai ehioh, Chinh sich trong dai hum - chin hom’? Vi sa? «ic hom lai t90 thud Jai cho ede nha hoach inh chink Hy fink biy 2 phuomy php mis ede hi Kink W sit dung dé du bio xu ths pit trign trong nen kia or Hay tinh vw sich trong vige din dinh nid "iy phe phiin eda Lucas ! lich sir kinh tv mv 6 y ‘quan Long U6 vi chin sich kink «€ 47 mo? Tinh bit nhat ea chin Sich kin (ig? Visao nh hoach dinhchinh sich khong i die Ct Me 40 omg cae th be ma hod a? Trong tok housing may, ww digm eta quy tée chinh sich e@ dinh th gi? iy ligt ke ba quy ue ehinh sich m Vi suo? Fed cin tuan theo. Ban ting ho quy tie nio? ay dun ra ba Iy do wii thich vi sao yeu cau o an img nein Sich es thé fa quy tée 4 nghiem nest Ui vi chinh seh thi ehinht Bai tap va van dung L¢ trong eh wie n phat chaye sie dinh bai dvimy Phillips iid ssw chinh Gi wit tst mghien vi usu" aie =e) tay Fe abst nghigp wr nln 1 1 Lam ht va i mghigp, uP Fi aF KE thst mghip oh td ks, Neorg iedng Dan chi fin deo das eh sich ‘Be lam phat dy kien. Ngo “ang ha Iudn theo dus chinh sieh we dO Ging tien 1 cin chigg Cong ha tuo thes oh ih We ng as why ied Wy ting tit 16 tg thap, Theo ban thi foxi inh “eh ky kinh doanh chinb tr nighigp 98 xiy ra nou: AW 1 Ci in amma ing niu the nguyen ie ang mg mee nee non? bs tt ing thay pinot cn que? saat fi an int oe mh 6 he hin hg gn ut i a i i oh Ey th mm mg tg in ty nie he ne hn hse en pn ge inp ng ch ce ah i em a hg hit na oh BN Ey gat Ly an Ly em ny a i gi tham hut agin sich di Cue dieu ebinh d un can bing. So sinh dé xuat nity vei qe ‘Bey nga nch gh ne uy Nene 161 hom? Ban ox nha thaly vain d gh Papin ng uy ie ogi ae ah el Ken Bag Kg 361PHU LUC TINH BAT NHAT VA SU DANH B61 GIA LAM PHAT VA THAT NGHIEP Sc RY hn pv bt i ig fy ah Ni dane my de po ng cd gidi tich. ee “oe Gi sn Philips 8 i adn Philips i gta gd mph v ht gig p Now ky hee 80 ett egies ep ater ase eee Ne Jam phat dy kién, thi that nghi¢p duve xie dinh bai: aaa usu age ~ x) ‘That mghign thap khi lam phat vurot quai mae tam phat jm xudng dia mt am phd Kn PM ME cao Kam ph DE dong 1 Fed kh thee n phip kiém sos cung ing inh rng Fed kiém soit lam prt mt eich hoan io la dite bine ed musty tam pt a vit thalp va thit nghi¢p thip. Gid sit tén cua that fam phat theo quan diém cia Fed o6 thé bigu dién bing him: me ‘tna Lown) ut ye? Sa i ey BW eh Ho dog et enki i chin ih No ge ih ¥en Fs it ly inci shen mene sy ce a oe ie aa at Ake chioh sich 6 dink, Fed cam ket theo dus quy fe inh ut thd guy ag, at ith, Kh efe te nhan enhanc tin ng Fo Quy te toi uu fg Do thal nghiep é mie ty nhign, cho dit mae lam phit bi trong Iugt pip Fi bao nbicu, ngudi ta khong duce loi gb Khi chip nln bat kj sie lam phat rio. Do d5, quy tie ed dinh t6i uu di xii Fed phi tao ea lam phat bing khong. hay x: ich tn 1 tay nghi. Trong diéu kien ty nghi hinh dong, ron inh 8 van han nr sau 1. Cie tie nhaw tu rn binh thanh RY vong vé lam phat eda ho x 2. Fed chon mie lam phit hign tix lave xiie dinh, of Ig that nghigp eng duge 3. Do fam phat du ign va hien tat xe dinh, Trong digu kige nh vay, Fed 167 thigu héa t6n that cia minh L(u, x) dya teen ring bude mi dung Phillips dae ra, Khi dé ra quyét dinh eda minh ve 17 If lam phat, Fed coi lam pht dy kin 1a yeu 16 eho truse ‘DE tim ket qui trong dibu kign chinh sich tay nghi, ching ta phii xem xét mie Jam phit ma Fed chon. Bing eich thay thé duimg Phillips vio him tén that cia Fed, celing ta dupe Leu, m) =u" = a(n — at) + yn? Hay chi ¥ rng tn thit eta Fed quan he tj Ie nghich véi mite lam phit khong dy igo (biéu the th 2) va quan he 1 1 than voi mac lam pt hign ti (ig thie th 3) DE tim ra mae lam ph 6 thigu ha in tht ny, chung ta hiy Lay vi phan theo x dLidn=- a+ 2yx ‘Tin that nhd neat khi vi phan nay bing khong. Dieu dé e6 nghia B ray) Cho di ege tie aban tw nhtn di kign mic fam phit nto, day vin Li nate fam phat “t6i uu" cn chon. Tat nhien, mot tie nhan tw nhan hinh dong hop ly hiéw duge mye tieu cia Fed va ring bude mi duding Phillips dat ra. Bdi vay, ho dur kiéa Fed chon mic Lam phat dy kign bang tom phat thye t¢ fx" = x= a/(2p)] vi that nghiep P, t fam pst bing mie ty nhign cia x6 (u Bay git chung ta hay so sinh ket exe trong ditu kign tay nghi hand déng "ti wu" i kevcue trong digu kign quy te “ti vu". Trong ei hai tung hop, hit nghigp du & mie tr nbien cua 26. Nhung chinh sie’ tay nghi to ra lam phit eao hon so vi chin sich €6 dinh. Nhu vay, chinh sch tay nghi & mie 161 mt kém hom chith sich e6 dinh ‘5i vu, mae dit Fed 161 thigu béa tn that Leu, x) trong diéu kien tay agi hin qua, ching ta thay 06 vé ky lakhi Fed dat daye Ket eue tt hen ki tun theo aquy tie 66 dinh. Vi sao tong digu kign tiy nghi hin dong, Fed khong bit chude trang a 363bap cam St twin thi quy tie kam pit bang Khiing? Ca eK fi Fed dang eli mot {rd chai vi ee nh hoach dink chink sich tr nha e6 ky vong up I. Khi Khong ean et twain thi quy tie e6 dinh ty 12 lam phit bing khong, Bed khong the Lam cho ese tac nnhan dt kien lam phat bing khong Vi du, ehiing & Hy gia dinh Fed chi dm vin tuyén 0 s2 theo dui ehinh sich {oon Dit bang Khong. Mot cine bo nu vay wn tin ni khong ding tin wy. Kh Is ome x fam phit di thinh hinh, Fed 6 ding ex tr bi Ki Ita trong edn bo ea minh ule cat giana that nghigp. Cae tie nham te nha higu due dong evs do, v1 the hho da bhon tin vio tuyen bi eta Fed tira Ly thuyet nay ve ehinh seh tién t@ dem lai mot ket Huda {inh hung si quyen try mel the quan trong. Tron met hint dong, Fed ed the tgo rt ein mot ket ewe nb kh quy te 8 dink lam phit King khong, New Fed ghst lam phat hn nhieu s» wi that nghigp (v4 the y ri Kin) tam phit trong dieu kign tay nehi gan bing Khong, vi Fed khong e6 ding ev Lim ting lam phat. Phat high niy fi mot chi din d voi gui c® trich nhigm bo nhigm thing dée nin hing trung vemes mit eich khie thay eh sige chip nhan quy tie e® dink Fi nism ning nei ghe tn um pt C6 inh ti theo chi mghia ty do quan tam Wi that thuimg bo nhigm vj thding die ht fam phi hip hing trang amg bao thi dung bé sung 1. Bae vaso shim nim 1970, ei 4 1 lam phit vi that nehigp tw mhign 6 Me fans HLiy sir dung. mx hinh ve Gin aC nha dé pha Wich hie tum nay. Ty wid lini ch nh sich tay neh dave vin dung 4. Trong m6 hinh di tinh bay. ditt s& xy ra Oi ei 16 tam phat Ki 4 Ie that mghigp tw mbien tang len? Bay gilt hay thay si mo hin mot chit bing eich gi dink sia Fed fi ham bie hai cho ed lam pit va th 8 hn tn that tit neh, Neha fi, Leu mye us at Hy ti tue ee burie wimg ty nl phn tri by trén cet gi ho 16 Ham hat trong didu kgm ehinh sich tay neh? © Wy wy digu gi s& say ra v6 Fe fam ph, Kh Uy 1 that nehigp tr ahign wane? 4. Vao nam 1979. Teng thong Jimmy Carer bi nhigm nit nydin hang tung ung bio tha Paul Volcker Kim chi tich Quy Dy tr Licn bang. Theo mo hinh nav, dou gi 6 the xiy ta di voi ka phat va that nehiep? 364 CHUNG 18 NEN KINH T& MG TRONG NGAN HAN ¢ bang eich bd zaanchamg ni a th cin quo 1. Nbr inh yn daw io ong huang Te ciateh vw mn Rudy Kio U6 hing fv eh vw mA Me Nes Kin ian cong vay vi ch vay to ech ewig tt chin the Ch tv om he hy a en. inh oi, MH hie tpt i won hie 2 Mundell-Fleming dirt ning cin nhiie quebe a moh nen kin t ah vi mei. MO hin, ening ta «hi ban den trong chong 7 phat righ trong ee chung 9 vi 10, xlotl-Fteming fi bu ign eda nign se. ong hing st ah cn vey gtty td snr Nahi cng en Seabee ing thay doi trong ditu kign kinh it dh chin th hi shy med Ke ih Sl e a me ra Jem xét phuemg thive hoat dong iia nen kink ( trong i ki oe a wt n : tinh d& cp Wi cude tranh Iuan VE vain dé nn the ndi hay e6 diab WY gi hai dos 43.1, Mé hinh-Mundell-Fleming «ta pit ign om hinh Mundell-Plessing, wi ee me sa 98 oa ng cite hin ich Kae ait tone du kn ig siealng a de hot os tha i 365Cac thanh té ciia mé hinh ‘Mo hinh Mundell-Fleming bao yim nhing thifah us chucmg trae. Ching ta bit iu mot 0 ra mo hinh. Bs 1a hing ta di biet trong eie dom gin bing eich viet ra ba phuung trinh Y= QY-1) +i) +G+NX(e) Is MIP = Li, Y iM Trude khi ghép ba phuwmg tinh wii nhaw dé thet lap mo hin nysén han ve nite oh t€ ah vi mi, euing a hy fn it xem lai ¥rphia ca ting pao tinh nay Fong tinh dau ten mo ti thi ting King hse. NS phin nh wing du aap Y Sing tng cia teu ding C, daw tw, mashing ei ehinh phd Gv aust kd Ong it dng 4 Ie thutn v6i thu ship khé dung Y-T. Bas try le nghich vii it wants uit kh rong Ie nghieh vei tS gid vi da, Hiy nh lai ing ching ta dink ngtia ty gid hoi di © 14 layne ngoai t& tinh een rect don vi agi te - vi dy, © 1h 100 yén teén 1 do la. Dé phye vu cho mo hioh Mundell-Fleming, ching ta khong cin phin bit gid ty gi i doi anh nghia va thor {© Trong chuong 7, ching ta d3 lien ket xuit khiu rong vei ty gid hii dot thye tee 2s bing eP/P*, tong dP 1a mite git tong nude vi P* Li mae gid nue ngodi. Vi m0 hinh Mundell-Fleming gid dinh wis ca e6 dink, su thay di eda ty gid hoi dos the 16 16 thud voi sw thay di ea ty yi dost dan nghia, Te La, Kh ty wid hol de danl nghia tang, hing ngosi tr nen ré hon so véi ng noi va digu nay lam aiden eect ‘hd vai khuyén khich ahgp kh, Phucng tri th hai mo ti thi teuimg tién t@. Nb phin doh cung ve si de tidn te {he t€ MP Bang chu LirY), Cau vi sa cr thue tt 1 mehich Ii sud va ty Ie (aan wai thu obgp. Cung dng tien te M 1a bin ngoai sinh do ngin hing tung wong kigv sost. Giding abu mo hinh IS. undell-Fleming coi mie gid P 1a bich ‘ngosi sinh, Pao tin thi bx ns ing Ii sus the gi quyt din Lt suit tong ne. Phuemg {Gah ny dling vi ching ta dang xem xét én kinh (Sho vi ni eta. Dieu ny ham fans so wi én inh (the gid, nen Kin K€ trong nutie nh da mie a the vay jose cho vay niu nh né musa ten thj ning tit ehinh the pid sh khong pay ea anh fury gi U6} ve sual the gi ‘Sa Phung tinh ny mo ti diy di mo binh Mundell-Feming. Con vige cia ching ta Hi xem xét ¥ nghia eda ching doi. vi ahimg big dong nein han trong nén kinh he 1h ma in. NEw ban de chu higu dure ese phe tinh niy, hay xem la chug 7 V9 true Khi tgp tue nyhien evry mye sa 366 Ma hinh trén dé thi Y-e Me tn Mandcl-Feng phn ch at Bing ech ng 6 ht Cid dn ht dé ay mo hin dag mF hong 8 hap de it ten re ns ys dst cae hf en rs tung nh ong 13-1 DD thi may duce v8 wi digu kien Lai suat khong d6i 6 mde Hai swat the gi. Hai phuemg tinh eis Minh ny 1s CYT +GHNX() IS? MiP = Lat, ¥) Me Cinng tt hee ing ny 8" WA LM nd neigh isu khong 3 me 1st he gil, Trang hi cm Dg ci ree igo digi eda dig 1S'Va LM"Giaw diém niy quyétd i si dos v . ue ar j i Ty is tos Nei aa Tout. sin me Hinh 13-1. Mo hinh Mundell-Fleming, ‘ns ni tm ah Maelening cy ao hinge rac au imi iow bin von bg TS" ia ht gid, Ni ho thse th hp 015 truding hing iia vd diu kign edn bang - hoi dodi edn bang, LM® cra thi truing vidn trong khi git li ur gid hoi doi khong duye dia vao phuong tht ho dai i bao bia Tinh 132 eo thay dag EM® hk tha the ABE, 367