EIC | Economic Intelligence Center

Monthly/February 2011

Insight
AEC


AEC
(ASEAN Economic Community: AEC)
(EU) 580
1.5

2015

supra-national authority
intergovernmental method

AEC


SMEs
2 (1)



(2)







(core competency)
AEC (nontradables become tradables)
(ASEAN expatriate class)
(market trend)

CLMV
AEC (critical mass of consumer)


ASEAN+3

EIC Economic Intelligence Center

1
AEC

AEC (Free Trade Area: FTA)

AEC

AEC


AEC 10 AEC
(ASEAN Community)
(ASEAN Political-Security Community)
(ASEAN Socio-Cultural Community)
(European Community) (European Union)


AEC

Economic Community (AEC)

1 ASEAN

*

: SCB EIC Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) ; China Ministryof
Commerce ; United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) International Monetary
Fund (IMF)

EIC Economic Intelligence Center

AEC 100%
100%
4 AEC (1) (single market
and production base) (2) (competitive economic region) (3)
(equitable economic development) (4) (integration
into global economy)

100%
AEC

73.6%*

82%

50%

100%

100%

SMEs

* 2008 - 2009
: SCB EIC ,

EIC Economic Intelligence Center

BOX: 2015
AEC 2015
AEC 2015
2015
2010
70% 2010
AEC 2015

70%
AEC

SMEs

2015
AEC


AEC 2015
2015 AEC

EIC Economic Intelligence Center

1.
-
- 0%
- 0%
-
-

- ( )
- 100%
- 70%
-
- -


2.
-
-

-
- intergovernment method
(European Central Bank: ECB)

-
(Supra-national authorities)

(European Parliament)
(European Court)

(European Legal System)

(European Competition Commission)
supra-national authority


intergovernmental method


1


1

, ...

EIC Economic Intelligence Center

AEC

AFTA

common external tariff


0%
0%
(harmonization of economic policies)

AEC

(free trade area) (customs union) (common market) (economic union)

: SCB EIC David J. Dennis and Zainal Aznam Yusof (2003) 2

David J. Dennis and Zainal Aznam Yusof (2003), Developing Indicators of ASEAN Integration A Preliminary Survey for a
Roadmap, final report to REPSF Project 02/001

EIC Economic Intelligence Center

BOX:
AEC
0% ( ) 6
0%
2010 4 2015
( Outlook special issue: FTAs)

ASEAN FTA 10
6 3 ( ASEAN)
6 53
ASEAN

FTA AFTA
ASEAN 0%
2012
29% 2010 8% 2017

2012

/ 2010-2020

__ __ __ __ __ __ __

%
35
30
25

28.7
21.8

20
18.0

15

2.8

2020

2019

2018

2017

2016

2015

0
0

2010

0.2

2014

4.1

2013

7.7

2012

8.4

2011

10

: SCB EIC ; ,

EIC Economic Intelligence Center

AEC

(investment and labor mobility) Insight

70%

AEC
70%

2006

2008

2010

(priority integration sectors)

49%

51%

70%

49%

51%

49%

51%

30%

: SCB EIC ASEAN

10

2013

2015

70%
70%

EIC Economic Intelligence Center

AEC

AEC

BOX: AEC
ASEAN Framework Agreement on Service:
AFAS (General Agreement
on Trade in Services: GATS) GATS
positive list

negative list

GATS-Plus
GATS 4 (1)
(cross-border supply) (2) (consumption abroad) (3)
(commercial presence) (4) (temporary
movement of natural persons) AFAS
(package) package
11 2015 8
WTO
(professional services)
GATS
7 12
WTO
WTO
AEC

11

EIC Economic Intelligence Center

2 (1)
(2)
GATS 4 ( BOX:
AEC) 1-3



39%
70%


4% 49%

6
*
: %

53
44

= 49%
35

30 30 28
26 24
21 20 19

16 16 15 15
14 14 14 12
10 7
6

12

* 5
** Business Online PCL
: SCB EIC SETSMART

IT

**

**

**

1 0

EIC Economic Intelligence Center

AEC


100%





3

30% 35% 2025 2050 16%

13

EIC Economic Intelligence Center

7
Purchasing Power Parity: PPP 2010*
: (PPP)/

5,000
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
0

* 2001 2010
: SCB EIC World Economic Outlook (WEO), IMF; Cost of investing and doing business
in ASEAN (2001 edition), ASEAN Penn World tables

AEC
(Mutual Recognition
Agreement: MRA) 7
4
MRA

MRA

14

EIC Economic Intelligence Center

3 AEC

30%, 40% 49%
AEC 70%

70% 2015

100%

100%

100%

49%

49%

40%
30%

30%

: SCB EIC World Trade Organization (WTO) Asian Development Bank (ADB)

(joint venture)

15

EIC Economic Intelligence Center

(EBITDA margin)
21
7 5 5

AEC

AEC

EBITDA margin

: SCB EIC Bloomberg

5

Bloomberg
Global Industry Classification Standard (GICS) Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) Standard & Poors (S&P)

16

EIC Economic Intelligence Center

EBITDA margin

10

21%

15%

19%

10%

7%

9%

17%
8%
n/a

9%

2%

19%

26%

n/a
5%

n/a

n/a

4%
11%

5%

21%

22%
12%

7%

17%

17%

16%

19%

9%

25%

25% n/a

4%

n/a

8%
39%

10%

7%

21%
n/a

8%
0%
5%
7%

15%
21%

n/a
7%

: SCB EIC Bloomberg

40%

17

EIC Economic Intelligence Center

1 4 (priority
integration sectors)
AEC

AEC



AEC

11 AEC

100%

100%

100%

67%

49%

40%
30%
AEC = 70%

: SCB EIC Jutamas and Fink (2007) 6

Jutamas Arunanondchai and Fink, Carsten (2007), Trade in Health Services in the ASEAN Region, World Bank Policy Research Working Paper 4147,
March 2007

18

EIC Economic Intelligence Center

15%
40%

12

----

: 10,000

15

44

12

61

11

61
18

6
1
1

10

<0.5

14

10

n/a

<0.5

<0.5

: SCB EIC World Health Statistics 2010, World Health Organization (WHO)

19

EIC Economic Intelligence Center

(aging population)
60 15% 2025 22% 2050
11% ( 2010) 30% 35% 2025
2050 16% 27% 2050 12%

13

( 60 )
: %

: SCB EIC United Nations (UN)

20

EIC Economic Intelligence Center

14
2000-2009

: 10,000

28
26
22
18

n/a

6
5

2007

: ( )

32

1,148

58
136

12
= 18

27
42
36

753
307

= 80

63

: SCB EIC World Health Statistics 2010, WHO

200

10%
(third-class services)

-
1993-1999 the National Investment Coordinating
Board 12 234

25%
83% 5,760
175

21

EIC Economic Intelligence Center

15

: SCB EIC World Health Statistics 2010, WHO

15% 40%

22

EIC Economic Intelligence Center

(core competency)
AEC

16

3 AEC

(non-tradables to tradables)

(ASEAN expatriate class)

Leverage core competency

+
+
+

=
=
=

: SCB EIC

ASEAN+3
(core competency)
AEC

23

EIC Economic Intelligence Center

BOX:
AEC

18,000
20%

the World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) 10
27% 20%
46% 52%

:


77% 61%




34,000

24

EIC Economic Intelligence Center

AEC
3 (1)

(2) (non-tradables become tradables)
(3)
(ASEAN expatriate class)





7

(Malaysia My Second Home Program: MM2H)

70%
80%

25

EIC Economic Intelligence Center

AEC
3
1.



7% 8 5%

2.


3. 3
3 (1) () (2) (3) 4%, 23%
7%
(Halal) 3

(core competency)
AEC (critical mass of consumer)


12% 10 9%
30

Red Bull
100 8

8% 20
6%

BrandZ Top 100 Most Valuable Global Brands 2010 Millward Brown Optimor

26

EIC Economic Intelligence Center

270
2005 2009
18.2
10.4 9
5 1
AEC
(critical mass of consumer)



AEC

27

EIC Economic Intelligence Center

vithan.charoenphon@scb.co.th
(662) 544-2478

( )

7

( )

International Economics and Finance ()

() ()
Fulbright MBA
Kellogg School of Management Northwestern University

ekasit.kanchanapinyokul@scb.co.th
(662) 544-3085

Head of Research
metinee.jongsaliswang@scb.co.th
(662) 544-3259

8 McKinsey &
Company PricewaterhouseCoopers

28

EIC Economic Intelligence Center

SCB Economic Intelligence Center

()

sethaput.suthiwartnarueput@scb.co.th
(662)544-4996

bunyanuch.niltakoch@scb.co.th
(662)544-5644

Chief Economist

metinee.jongsaliswang@scb.co.th
(662)544-3259
pornthep.jubandhu@scb.co.th
(662)544-3066
mantana.lertchaitawee@scb.co.th
(662)544-6760

akarapat.charoenpanich@scb.co.th
(662)544-5602
sukanya.prangwattananon@scb.co.th
(662)544-6103
ekasit.kanchanapinyokul@scb.co.th
(662)544-3085

pranida.syamananda@scb.co.th
(662)544-2705

darakorn.pipatanakul@scb.co.th
(662)544-4006

paradee.vivatanaprasert@scb.co.th
(662)544-2475

vithan.chareonphon@scb.co.th
(662)544-2478

witchuda.chummee@scb.co.th
(662)544-1644

kampon.adireksombat@scb.co.th
(662)544-1463

pinattha.aruntat@scb.co.th
(662)544-2953

vipasara.arpaskundait@scb.co.th
(662)544-6566

jiraporn.kritsadarak@scb.co.th
(662)544-6759

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