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Ang TGBL 122011 94043
Ang TGBL 122011 94043
BUY
CMP Target Price
Investment Period
Stock Info Sector Market Cap (` cr) Beta 52 Week High / Low Avg. Daily Volume Face Value (`) BSE Sensex Nifty Reuters Code Bloomberg Code FMCG 5,219 1.0 120/80 294,179 1 15,391 4,613 TAGL.BO TGBL@IN
`84 `97
12 Months
Shareholding Pattern (%) Promoters MF / Banks / Indian Fls FII / NRIs / OCBs Indian Public / Others 35.2 33.4 9.8 21.6
3m
1yr
FY2010 5,784 19.3 390 73.2 8.9 6.2 14.5 1.5 10.4 6.2 0.9 10.8
FY2011 5,984 3.5 254 (34.8) 8.6 3.4 26.4 1.4 5.4 6.7 0.8 8.9
FY2012E 6,522 9.0 336 32.1 9.2 5.4 16.6 1.4 8.4 8.0 0.7 8.6
FY2013E 7,110 9.0 427 27.2 10.1 6.9 12.2 1.3 10.2 9.6 0.6 8.6
Investment thesis
Fast emerging global beverage player
Among the top 10 global players in the hot drinks category, posing a challenge to Nestl, Kraft Foods and Unilever, among others. TGBL, led by its various acquisitions in recent years, has become a global non-alcoholic beverage company. The company now features among the global top 10 players list in the hot drinks category. Exhibit 1: Top10 Global players (%Off-trade value) - Hot drinks category
Company Nestl SA Kraft Foods Inc. Unilever Group Sara Lee Corp Tchibo GmbH Tata Global Beverages Ltd Associated British Foods Plc (ABF) JM Smucker Co, The Strauss Group Ltd Lavazza SpA, Luigi
Source: Euromonitor International, Angel Research
2010 15.2 7.8 4.4 3.4 1.6 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.1
1,000 800 600 400 200 0 USA Canada & UK & Africa Europe & South Asia Non Australia ME Branded 2011 2009 2010 Others
The company generates over 70% of its consolidated sales from outside India.
During FY2011, TGBL reported more than 70% of its revenue from outside India. The company has a leadership position in the tea and coffee markets in several countries. The company is the second largest global tea marketing company and the third largest player (post acquisition of Eight O Clock coffee through its subsidiary Tata Coffee) in the branded coffee market in the US. Exhibit 3: TGBLs country-wise sales of hot drinks in CY10 (% retail value)
21
26
19
10
24
India
Canada
USA
UK
Others
Apart from being among the leaders in global tea markets, TGBLs leadership in the Indian tea market has also been increasing. Currently, iconic brands like Tata Tea, Kanan Devan and Tetley feature among the top tea brands in the country. Exhibit 4: Top tea brand shares in India (% retail value)
Brand Tata Tea Brooke Bond Duncans Lipton Wagh Bakri Kanan Devan Goodricke Twinings Golden Tips Girnar Jay Green Tea Tetley Kho-Cha Company TGBL HUL Duncans Industries HUL Wagh Bakri TGBL Goodricke Group Twinings Pvt Ltd Golden Tips Tea Co Girnar Food & Beverages Jay Shree Tea TGBL Kho-Cha Darjeeling Tea Bureau CY2010 19.7 19.1 8.6 6.2 3.5 3.3 1.5 1.2 1.1 1 0.7 0.5 0.2
(%)
FY2012E
FY2013E
FY2012E
EBITDA
Source: Company, Angel Research
OPM
FY2013E
FY2007
FY2008
FY2009
FY2010
FY2011
(%)
(` )
Also, with the Tea Board of India estimating higher production of tea in 2011 as compared to 2010 (~5% higher production), we expect auction prices of tea to soften, thereby providing a relief to the company from the heightened input cost pressure. It is estimated that tea production in India will cross 1,000mn kgs in 2011 with increased tea production from North India. Exhibit 7: Monthly estimated tea production for CY2011
CY2011 (000kgs) Total Assam Growth (yoy %) Total W. Bengal Growth (yoy %) Total North India Growth (yoy %) Total South India Growth (yoy %) All India Growth (yoy %) Jan 3,426 (37) 2,934 (8) 6,412 (26) (21) (23) Feb 114 (39) (34) (4) (7) Mar 60 (4) 28 (3) 16 April (3) 27 3 17 7 May 9 10 9 (3) 5 June 62,824 24 25,955 2 16 25,251 (7) 10 July 76,311 14 33,934 (1) 9 21,329 5 8 Aug 84,080 7 27,148 (1) 5 14,250 (4) 3 Sept 66,962 7 23,762 (2) 93,062 4 17,999 (2) 3 Oct 70,467 (2) 22,973 (10) 95,039 (4) 22,458 4 117,497 (3) Jan to Oct 455,826 9 184,263 648,998 6 198,160 (2) 847,158 4 94 23,669 37,025 30,968 909 14,364 11,954 20,330 1,004 38,137 49,451 51,738
( `)
100 50 0
Feb-09 Feb-10 May-08 May-10 May-09 Feb-11 May-11 Aug-10 Aug-08 Aug-09 Nov-08 Nov-09 Aug-11 Nov-10 Nov-11
Area (hectares) 383,629 394,170 396,066 398,453 399,964 407,647 411,335 414,347 414,953 416,269 420,470 420,289 418,363 425,966 427,065 431,204 434,294 474,027 490,200 504,366 509,806 515,832 519,598 521,403 523,000 567,020 578,458 NA NA NA NA
Production (000 kgs) 560,427 560,562 581,484 639,864 656,162 620,803 665,251 700,014 688,105 720,338 754,192 732,322 760,826 752,895 756,016 780,140 810,031 874,108 825,935 846,922 853,923 838,474 878,129 892,965 927,984 981,800 986,430 980,820 978,999 966,403 1000000E
Revenue overview
TGBL has become a global non beverage player post its various acquisitions in many geographical regions. Though the companys key revenue generating product remains tea, it is also present in coffee though its subsidiary Tata Coffee Ltd. The company has recently started to expand its product portfolio by entering into other beverages. The company has recently entered into a JV with PepsiCo India Pvt. Ltd. to develop non-carbonated, ready-to-drink beverages focused on health and enhanced wellness for international markets. Exhibit 12: Category-wise sales breakup FY2011
8 2
19 1 1 71 Tetley Tea Coffee Plantations Others Eight O'Clock Indian Tea Brands Vitax 29 Good Earth Others Jemca
We expect the companys consolidated revenue to witness a ~9% CAGR over FY2011-13E, driven by modest volume growth and selective price hikes in the companys key categories tea and coffee. The tea industry has witnessed a number of changes over the years with changing consumer behavior due to changing lifestyles and increased awareness. Though tea remains the key focus area for TGBL, the company is focusing on expanding its footprint across the globe, strengthening its position in the global tea market and getting noticed in the global beverages category. Over the years, TGBL has grown inorganically considering the sluggish growth in the domestic tea market. Exhibit 14: Time line of acquisitions and JVs of TGBL
Year FY2000 FY2005 FY2006 FY2009 FY2011 FY2012 Company Tetley Good Earth, Inc., USA Eight O' Clock Coffee Company, USA Grand, Russia Rising Beverage Company Llc Nourishco Beverages Ltd (With PepsiCo India) Country UK USA USA Russia USA India
EV (` cr)
Dec-07
Dec-08
Dec-09
Dec-10
Aug-07
Aug-08
Aug-09
Aug-10
EV
1.3
1.1
0.9
0.7
0.5