PRESENTER

PAKISTAN 21st CENTURY

ISLAMIC REPUBLIC OF PAKISTAN

IS PAKISTANS ECONOMY ON THE VERGE OF COLLAPSE

Facts first Economic indicators

GDP (purchasing power parity) $514.6 billion (2012 est.) $496.3 billion (2011 est.) $481.7 billion (2010 est.) note: data are in 2012 US dollars $230.5 billion (2012 est.) 3.7% (2012 est.) 3% (2011 est.) 3.1% (2010 est.) $2,900 (2012 est.) $2,800 (2011 est.) $2,800 (2010 est.) note: data are in 2012 US dollars

GDP (official exchange rate) GDP - real growth rate GDP - per capita (PPP)

Continued
GDP - composition by sector agriculture: 20.1% industry: 25.5% services: 54.4% (2012 est.) 22.3% (FY05/06 est.) 60.36 million note: extensive export of labor, mostly to the Middle East, and use of child labor (2012 est.) agriculture: 45.1% industry: 20.7% services: 34.2% (2010 est.)

Population below poverty line Labor force

Labor force - by occupation

Unemployment rate

5.6% (2012 est.) 5.6% (2011 est.) note: substantial underemployment exists total: 7.7% male: 7% female: 10.5% (2008) lowest 10%: 9.9% highest 10%: 39.3% (FY07/08) 30.6 (FY07/08) 41 (FY98/99)

Unemployment, youth ages 15-24

Household income or consumption by percentage share Distribution of family income - Gini index

Investment (gross fixed) Budget Taxes and other revenues Budget surplus (+) or deficit (-) Public debt Inflation rate (consumer prices)

10.9% of GDP (2012 est.) revenues: $29.51 billion expenditures: $44.19 billion (2012 est.) 12.8% of GDP (2012 est.) -6.4% of GDP (2012 est.) 50.4% of GDP (2012 est.) 60.1% of GDP (2011 est.) 11.3% (2012 est.) 11.9% (2011 est.)

Agriculture - products

cotton, wheat, rice, sugarcane, fruits, vegetables; milk, beef, mutton, eggs

Industries

textiles and apparel, food processing, pharmaceuticals, construction materials, paper products, fertilizer, shrimp
3% (2011 est.) -$4.632 billion (2012 est.) $268 million (2011 est.)

Industrial production growth rate Current Account Balance

Exports

$24.66 billion (2012 est.) $26.3 billion (2011 est.) US 15%, UAE 9.7%, Afghanistan 9.5%, China 9.2%, UK 5%, Germany 4.5% (2012 est.) $40.82 billion (2012 est.) $38.93 billion (2011 est.) UAE 17.2%, China 15%, Saudi Arabia 11.2%, Kuwait 8.9%, Malaysia 5.4%, Japan 4.3% (2012 est.)

Exports - partners

Imports Imports - partners

Reserves of foreign exchange and gold

$13.5 billion (30 November 2012 est.) $18.09 billion (31 December 2011 est.)

Debt - external
Exchange rates

$55.98 billion (31 December 2012 est.) $58.27 billion (31 December 2011 est.)
Pakistani rupees (PKR) per US dollar 95.1 (2012 est.) 86.3434 (2011 est.) 85.194 (2010 est.) 81.71 (2009) 70.64 (2008)

History, shows that Pakistan's economic trajectory, since 1947, has been erratic and inconsistent, and yet it has escaped the fate of a failed state.

History at Glance

Immediately after Independence Pakistan inherited one of the largest irrigation systems a well-connected road and railway system did not take advantage of existing provisions de-capitalisation of resources. only two textile mills and one cement plant by the British.

Ayub Khan's era

witnessed an average growth rate of 5.4 per cent 'Golden Age' the 'role model' food prices stabilised increase in public and private investments seven families 91.6 per cent of private domestic deposits and 84.4 per cent of assets widespread protests downfall of the Ayub regime.

Zulfikar Ali Bhutto's (1972-77)

socialist policies large scale nationalization Popular belief is that nationalization harmed the economy drastically consequences similar to the previous government expulsion of the Bhutto Government.

Zia ul-Haq's regime (1977-1988)

inflow of US aid Soviet invasion of Afghanistan $0.5 billion in 1978 to $3.2 billion in loans remittances of close to $25 billion increase in fixed investments from 15.5 to 16.77 per cent of the GDP Investments in textiles increased from 17.9 in 1977 to 37.4 in 1988 Average export growth rate also rose from 10.32 (1973-78) to 14.33 per cent (1978-88)

Both democratic regimes of Benazir Bhutto and Nawaz Sharif were burdened with multi-faceted pressures that included debt servicing, reduced aid after the end of cold war, fall in remittances after the Gulf boom of the 80's fizzled out, restrictions after nuclear testing and serious law and order crisis.

General Pervez Musharraf's regime (1999-2008)

return of capital flow and workers' remittances that were earlier absorbed into the black market 9/11 people preferred to go through the official line The U.S. invasion of Afghanistan

war led to huge inflow of foreign assistance

the exchange reserves hit $4 billion thereby stabilising the economy The growth rate hit close to 8 per cent in 2005 moment of rejoicing was short-lived consumption and imports (leading to 'overheat' of the economy

PPP led government (2008-2012)

inherited an economy in shambles Spending on development

bad policy decisions of the past and the global financial crisis.
fixed investment took a back seat

The investment rate was 13.4 percent in 2011 The Foreign Direct Investment also declined fear of an 'imminent collapse' The 2010 floods

supposedly the lowest the country had witnessed in 37 years

highly unstable political environment

Conclusion

The present economic scenario Fire-fighting measures Tide over the energy crisis

THANK YOU