Tac Dong Cua Chinh Sach Co Tuc Toi Gia Chung Khoan

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B GIO DC V O TO B GIO DC V O TO TRNG I H C KINH T TP.HCM TRNG I H C KINH T TP.HCM ---------------------------------
CNG TRNH D THI CNG TRNH D THI GII TH NG NGHIN CU KHOA H C SINH VIN GII TH NG NGHIN CU KHOA H C SINH VIN NH KINH T TR NM 2011 NH KINH T TR NM 2011
TN CNG TRNH: TN CNG TRNH:
PHN TCH CHNH SCH C TC V TC NG PHN TCH CHNH SCH C TC V TC CA N N GI TR TH TRNG CA CC NG CA N N GI TR TH TRNG CA DOANH NGHIP NIM Y T TRN TH TRNG CC DOANH NGHIP NIM Y T TRN TH CHNG KHON VI T NAM TRNG CHNG KHON VI T NAM
THU C NHM NGNH: KHOA H C KINH T THU C NHM NGNH: KHOA H C KINH T
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MC L C:
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Trang ba: .........................................................................................................................i Mc l c: ............................................................................................................................ii Danh m c cc hnh v, b ng bi u v th :.............................................................v TM TT TI: .......................................................................................................1 1. L do chn ti: .......................................................................................................1 2. Mc tiu nghin c u: .................................................................................................1 3. Phng php nghin c u: ..........................................................................................1 4. Ni dung nghin c u: .................................................................................................1 5. ng gp ca ti:...................................................................................................2 6. H ng pht trin ca ti: ......................................................................................2 PH N M U: ............................................................................................................3 CHNG 1: T NG QUAN V C TC - CC TR NG PHI TRN TH GII V GI TR DOANH NGHIP: ....................................................................6 1.1 Khi ni m c tc v chnh sch c tc: .........................................................6 Khi nim: .......................................................................................................6 Qu trnh chi tr c tc: ................................................................................6 Khi nim: .......................................................................................................7 Tm quan tr ng ca chnh sch c tc: ......................................................7 Cc ch tiu o lng chnh sch c t c: ....................................................8 Cc phng th c chi tr c t c: ...................................................................10 Chnh sch l i nhun gi l i th ng:.......................................................13 Chnh sch c t c tin mt n nh: ............................................................15 Chnh sch c t c c t l chi tr khng i: .............................................18 1.1.1 C tc: ...................................................................................................................6 1.1.1.1 1.1.1.2
1.1.2 Chnh sch c t c:...............................................................................................7 1.1.2.1 1.1.2.2 1.1.2.3 1.1.2.4
1.1.3 Cc chnh sch c tc trong th c tin: ............................................................13 1.1.3.1 1.1.3.2 1.1.3.3
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1.1.3.4
Chnh sch chi tr c tc nh hng qu cng v i c tc thng thm vo Cc trng phi trn th gi i v chnh sch c tc v gi tr doanh nghi p:..21
cui nm: ...........................................................................................................................19 1.2 1.2.1 Tr ng phi trung dung: ...................................................................................21 1.2.2 Tr ng phi t khuynh c p tin: ......................................................................23 1.2.3 Tr ng phi h u khuynh b o th : ..................................................................26 1.2.4 ngha trong cc tranh lu n ca mi tr ng phi: .....................................27 K T LU N CHNG 1: ...............................................................................................30 CHNG 2: PHN TCH CHNH SCH C TC C A CC DOANH NGHIP NIM Y T TRN TH TR NG CHNG KHON VI T NAM:..31 2.1 Th c tr ng chi tr c tc ca cc doanh nghi p trong thi gian qua: ...31 Tnh n nh ca c tc chi tr qua cc nm: ............................................31 M c chi tr c t c mi c ph n qua cc nm: ...........................................33 T l chi tr c t c qua cc n m: .................................................................37 T su t c tc qua cc nm: ..........................................................................41 M c c t c mi c ph n ca cc ngnh:.....................................................45 T l chi tr c t c ca cc ngnh: ..............................................................47 T su t c t c c a cc ngnh: ......................................................................49 Tc ng c a chnh sch c tc ln gi tr th trng c a doanh nghi p:..51 2.1.1 Phn tch theo thi gian: ....................................................................................31 2.1.1.1 2.1.1.2 2.1.1.3 2.1.1.4
2.1.2 Phn tch theo ngnh: ........................................................................................45 2.1.2.1 2.1.2.2 2.1.2.3 2.2
2.2.1 V mt nh tnh: .................................................................................................51 2.2.2 V mt nh lng: .............................................................................................53 2.3 nh gi chnh sch c tc c a cc doanh nghi p trong th i gian qua:..58 2.3.1 Mt tch c c:.........................................................................................................58 2.3.2 Mt hn ch:.........................................................................................................60 K T LU N CHNG 2: ...............................................................................................64
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CHNG 3: XU T CHNH SCH C T C PH HP CHO CC DOANH NGHIP NIM Y T TRN TH TR NG CHNG KHON VI T NAM:..65 3.1 Cc nguyn t c c bn trong vi c a ra quyt nh chnh sch c tc c a doanh nghi p: ..................................................................................................................65 3.1.1 Vn d ng cc nguyn t c c b n ca Lintner: ..............................................65 3.1.2 Nguyn tc la ch n chnh sch c tc ph hp: .........................................67 3.2 3.3 Xy d ng quy trnh ra quyt nh chnh sch c tc cho cc doanh nghi p:..68 Mt s xu t l a ch n chnh sch c tc ti u cho cc doanh nghi p:..70
3.3.1 T l chi tr c tc t i u: ..................................................................................71 3.3.2 Hnh th c c tc ti u: .....................................................................................73 3.3.3 Mc n nh c a chnh sch chi tr c tc: .............................................74 K T LU N CHNG 3: ...............................................................................................76 PH N K T LU N:........................................................................................................77 Ti li u tham kh o: ........................................................................................................79 Ph l c: .............................................................................................................................82
DANH M C CC HNH V, TH V B NG BIU:
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Hnh 1.1: Lch s thu sut M t nm 1961 n nm 2011: ................................24 Hnh 1.2: T l s lng cc doanh nghip chi tr c tc so vi t ng s cc doanh nghip S&P500 tnh theo s l ng v tnh theo mc v n ho c a th tr ng t nm 1980-2010:.........................................................................................................................24 Hnh 1.3: Chi ph huy ng v n tnh theo ph n trm s vn huy ng bng cch pht hnh tri phiu v pht hnh c ph n th ng trn th tr ng ch ng khon M : .....26 Hnh 1.4: Chnh sch c tc t i u - Dung ho cc lp lu n ca tr ng phi cnh t v trng ph i cnh h u: ......................................................................................................29 Hnh 2.1 : Phn tr m s lng cc doanh nghip phn loi theo mc n nh ca c tc chi tr t nm 2002 n nm 2009: .........................................................................31 Hnh 2.2 : Thu nh p v c tc mi c phn trung bnh c a th trng t nm 200 0 n nm 2010: ..........................................................................................................................32 Hnh 2.3: S lng cc doanh nghi p nim yt phn lo i theo cc nhm mc c tc khc nhau qua cc nm: ...................................................................................................34 Hnh 2.4: T trng s lng cc doanh nghi p nim yt phn lo i theo cc nhm mc c tc khc nhau qua cc nm: .......................................................................................35 Hnh 2.5: M c c tc m i c phn (DPS) trung bnh c a th tr ng t nm 2001 n nm 2009 (n v ng): .................................................................................................36 Hnh 2.6: T l chi tr c tc trung bnh c a th trng t nm 2000 n nm 2010 :..37 Hnh 2.7: S lng cc doanh nghi p phn lo i theo cc nhm t l chi tr c tc khc nhau qua cc nm: ............................................................................................................38 Hnh 2.8: T trng s lng cc doanh nghip phn lo i theo cc nhm t l chi tr c tc khc nhau qua cc nm: ............................................................................................39 Hnh 2.9: T sut c tc trung bnh c a th tr ng t nm 2001 n nm 2009:....42
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Hnh 2.10 : S l ng cc doanh nghi p phn loi theo cc nhm t sut c tc khc nhau qua cc nm: ............................................................................................................43 Hnh 2.11: T trng s lng cc doanh nghip phn loi theo cc nhm t su t c tc khc nhau qua cc nm: ...................................................................................................44 Hnh 2.12: Mc c tc m i c phn c a cc ngnh t nm 2005 n nm 2009: ..46 Hnh 2.13: Mc c tc m i c phn c a cc ngnh trong nm 2009:.......................47 Hnh 2.14: T l chi tr c tc ca cc ngnh t nm 2005 n nm 2009: ............48 Hnh 2.15: T l chi tr c tc ca cc ngnh trong nm 2009: ................................49 Hnh 2.16: T sut c tc c a cc ngnh t nm 2005 n nm 2009: ...................50 Hnh 2.17: T sut c tc c a cc ngnh trong nm 2009: ........................................51 Hnh 3.1: Quy trnh th c hin quyt nh chnh sch c tc c phn tch theo nhim v ca cc b phn trong doanh nghi p: .......................................................................69
B ng 2.1: M chng khon ca mt s doanh nghip chi tr c tc nhiu hn li nhu n trong nm (t l chi tr c tc ln hn 100%): .................................................40 B ng 2.2: M chng khon ca mt s doanh nghip c li nhu n m nh ng trong nm vn chi tr c tc: .....................................................................................................41
TM TT TI: 1. L do chn ti: Chnh sch c tc l mt trong ba quyt nh ti chnh quan trng trong doanh nghi p. Trn th gii c rt nhi u nghin cu khc nhau v chnh sch c tc, nh ng n vn l m t vn cn gy nhiu tranh ci. Trong khi trn th tr ng ch ng khon Vit Nam, chnh sch c tc ca doanh nghip thi gian qua n i ln thnh mt trong nh ng vn c cc nh u t rt ch trng, ng thi cc doanh nghip vn cha c nhn thc su sc v tm quan tr ng ca chnh sch c tc trong cng tc ti chnh c a mnh. Vi mong mun ng gp mt phn vo vic phn tch r hn quyt nh phn ph i c tc, cng nh tm quan tr ng c a n i vi m c tiu ti a ha ti sn c a cc c ng, ti xin c ch n ti: Phn tch chnh sch c t c v tc ng ca n n gi tr th trng ca cc doanh nghip nim y t trn th trng ch ng khon Vi t Nam lm chuyn nghin c u khoa hc. 2. Mc tiu nghin c u: Mc tiu c a chuyn l d a trn cc l thuyt v th c nghim v chnh sch c tc trn th gii a ra cc phn tch , nh gi chnh sch c tc c a cc doanh nghi p nim yt trn th tr ng ch ng khon Vit Nam. T , ra phng h ng xy d ng chnh sch c tc ph h p cho cc doanh nghi p nim yt trong thi gian ti. 3. Phng php nghin cu: Phng php thng k : Tp h p s liu v nh gi thc tr ng. Phng php m t: nh gi, so snh a ra ci nhn tng quan v chnh sch c tc ca cc cng ty nim yt trn th trng ch ng khon. Phng php phn tch nh lng : Kim nh hi quy cc m hnh kinh t l ng xc nh mi lin h gi a chnh sch c tc v gi tr doanh nghip. 4. Ni dung nghin c u: Chng 1 : Tm hiu cc l thuyt tng quan v chnh sch c tc, cng nh cc tranh lun c a cc trn th gii v chnh sch c tc v gi tr doanh nghip.
Chng 2 : nh gi chnh sch c tc c a cc doanh nghi p nim yt trn th trng chng khon Vit Nam v phn tch tc ng c a chnh sch c tc ln gi tr c a cc doanh nghip nim yt. Chng 3 : Chuyn s ng gp cc kin xy d ng mt chnh sch c tc ph h p cho cc doanh nghi p nim yt trong thi gian ti. 5. ng gp ca ti: Th nh t, trnh by cc nghin c u thc nghim v chnh sch c tc c a cc h c gi trn th gii v rt ra m hnh chi tr c tc ti u t ngha trong cc tranh lun c a mi trng phi v chnh sch c tc. Th hai, nh gi chi tit bng cch th ha chnh sch c tc bng tin m t ca cc doanh nghip nim yt, ng thi, so snh chnh sch chi tr c tc gi a cc ngnh khc nhau trn th tr ng ch ng khon. Th ba , nh tnh v nh lng cc tc ng c a chnh sch c tc b ng tin m t n gi tr ca cc doanh nghi p nim yt trn th tr ng ch ng khon. Th nm, xy d ng m hnh ra quyt nh chnh sch c tc trong doanh nghi p. V a ra phng h ng l a ch n chnh sch c tc ph h p cho cc doanh nghi p nim yt trn th trng ch ng khon Vit Nam. 6. H ng pht tri n ca ti: ti c th m r ng vic phn tch cc chnh sch c tc khc b ng c phn, mua li c phn v nh gi tc ng tng h p c a tt c cc chnh sch c tc ny n gi tr doanh nghip. ng thi nh l ng cc yu t tc ng ln chnh sch c tc t c nhng a ra nhng cn c nh m xc nh chnh sch c tc ph h p nh t cho cc doanh nghip nim yt trn th tr ng ch ng khon.
PH N M U: Nhiu nghin c u trn th gii c tin hnh xc nh m i quan h gi a chnh sch c tc v gi tr doanh nghip, ng ch nht l nghin c u c a Miller v Modigliani (1961) to nh ng n n tng cho trng phi trung dung sau ny. Theo l thuyt ca h, trong iu ki n ca m t th tr ng hiu qu , th khng c m i quan h gi a chnh sch c tc v gi tr th trng c a doanh nghip. Tuy nhin, l thuyt ny li cho thy rng c mt mi quan h gi a chnh sch u t v gi tr th trng, theo , cc chnh sch c tc l khng quan trng v n khng nh hng n gi tr ca cng ty hay s giu c c a cc ch s h u. c rt nhiu tranh lu n v nh ng nghin cu chuyn su c tin hnh t kim tra l thuyt ny. Trong khi mt s nh nghin c u ch ng h n nh Black v Scholes (1974), Merton v Rock (1985) v Peter (1996) c xu h ng h tr l thuyt ny, th cng c nh ng ngi khc li phn i n nh Litzenberger v Ramaswamy (1979), Blume (1980), Litzenberger v Ramaswamy (1982), Ang v Peterson (1985), Dyl v Weigand (1998), Koch v Shenoy (1999). Nh ng quan im tri ngc nhau nh vy dn n s m h v cn phi c nh ng nghin c u r rng d a trn kt qu c th. M i quan h gi a chnh sch c tc v cc chnh sch khc nh chnh sch u t v ti tr lun ch ng cho v phc tp. V vy, vic la chn chnh sch c tc th ng ph thuc vo s thch c a nh qun l, m c d thc t l trng phi trung dung ch ra rng cng tc qun l ti chnh nn thc hin theo chnh sch u t ti a ha thu nhp trong tng lai. Trong khi ti Vit Nam, tuy r ng c nhiu nghin c u v chnh sch c tc c a cc doanh nghi p nim yt trn th tr ng ch ng khon, n hng nhng nghin c u trc y ch a ra cc phn tch v chnh sch c tc v cc nhn t tc ng ln chnh sch c tc. Nghin c u ny c a chng ti mt m t a ra cc nh gi r rng hn chnh sch c tc ca cc doanh nghip nim yt, m t m t nh gi tc ng c a n n gi tr tr trng c a cc doanh nghi p, t a ra thm mt bng ch ng thc nghim trong nh ng tranh lu n v mi quan h gi a chnh sch c tc v gi tr doanh
nghip. Cui cng nghin c u ny s d a vo nhng nh gi gi cho cc doanh nghip Vit Nam a ra chnh sch c tc ph h p. c ci nhn chi tit hn v ti, ph n ny cng xin trnh by thm v i tng nghin c u, ph m v nghin c u, v ngu n d liu nghin c u. i tng nghin c u: i tng nghin c u c a chuyn l chnh sch c tc b ng tin m t v tc ng ca n n gi tr th trng ca cc doanh nghip nim yt trn sn giao dch ch ng khon thnh ph H Ch Minh v sn giao dch ch ng khon H Ni t nm 2000 n nm 2010. Phm vi nghin c u: V khng gian: Chuyn nghin c u chnh sch c tc ca 453 cng ty c trong danh sch nim yt trn sn giao dch ch ng khon thnh ph H Ch Minh v sn giao dch chng khon H Ni vo ngy 31/12/2009. L do chuyn chn ngy 31/12/2009 ly danh sch cc cng ty nim yt l v chng ti cha tm c s liu y v c tc chi tr cho c nm 2010 ca nh ng cng ty bt u c nim yt trong nm 2010 . V thi gian : Thi gian nghin c u l t 28/7/2000 n ngy 20/03/2011. Chuyn ch gii hn nghin c u chnh sch c tc bng tin m t ca cc cng ty t khi c nim yt nim yt trn th tr ng ch ng khon. Ngun d liu nghin c u: D liu s cp: D liu c tc c tng h p t cc cng b thng tin trn th trng (tnh n thi im 20/03/2011) v cc b n co b ch c a 453 cng ty nim yt trn S giao dch ch ng khon thnh ph H Ch Minh v S giao dch chng khon H N i vo ngy 31/12/2009. Ngoi ra, d liu cn c b sung t cc s liu cng b trn cc website: http://cafef.vn, http://fpts.com.vn, http://cophieu68.com, http://stockbiz.vn . Do nhi u nguyn nhn ch quan v khch quan nn d liu thu thp c cn mang nhi u h n ch. Tn h n ngy 20/03/2011, nhi u doanh nghip vn ch a hon tt cng b chi tr c tc cho c n m 2010, ring ch c mt s t cng ty nim yt hon
thnh chi tr c tc, nn, trong mt vi phn tch, c huyn cha th nh gi c chnh sch c tc cho c nm ny .Trong nm 2000, cc doanh nghip nim yt trn th trng rt t v thng tin v c tc khng r rng. H n n a, cc nm trc khi doanh nghip c nim yt trn th tr ng ch ng khon th d liu c tc ca cng ty c ng khng c cng b mt cch c th. M t vi doanh nghip (chng h n Cng Ty C Phn u T Pht Tri n Th V Khu Cng Nghip Sng ( m ch ng khon SJS)) cng b c tc g p cho hai k kinh doanh m khng phn nh r rng mc chi tr cho m i k nn trong nh ng k ny khng xc nh c mc c tc chi tr, mt vi doanh nghip khc cng b c tc b sung cho nhiu nm m khng phn nh t l c tc mi n m l bao nhiu (ch ng hn Cng Ty C Ph n S a Vit Nam (m ch ng khon VNM)). D liu th c p: S liu v danh sch phn ngnh cc doanh nghi p nim yt c ly t http://hsc.com.vn (Cng Ty C Phn Ch ng Khon Thnh Ph H Ch Minh). S liu th ng k c a Tng c c th ng k, Ngn hng nh nc Vit Nam; cc s liu thng k trong cc nghin c u cu phn tch c a cc t ch c v c nhn trong v ngoi nc.
CHNG 1: TNG QUAN V C TC CC TR NG PHI TRN TH GII V CHNH SCH SCH C T C V G I TR DOANH NGHIP 1.1 Khi ni m c tc v chnh sch c tc: 1.1.1 C tc: 1.1.1.1 Khi nim: C tc c phn hay li tc c phn l mt ph n li nhu n sau thu c cng ty c phn phn chia cho cc ch s h u ca mnh bng nhiu hnh th c khc nhau ch ng hn nh bng ti n m t ho c b ng c ph n. 1.1.1.2 Qu trnh chi tr c tc: Cn c vo ho t ng s n xu t kinh doanh trong nm v chnh sch c tc c i h i ng c ng trong nm trc thng qua, hi ng qun tr s xu t vic tr c tc ca c nm, v k ho ch d kin tr c tc ca cng ty trong nm tip theo. C tc c tr ti c ng thng qua ti kho n lu k ca c ng ti n v nh n lu k c phi u ca cng ty, ho c ti tr s ca cng ty. Mc d, c m t s khc bit nh, nhng v c bn, trnh t chi tr c tc din ra vi cc m c th i gian nh sau: Ngy cng b : L ngy hi ng qu n tr cng ty cng b trn phng tin thng tin i chng v quyt nh tr c tc ti cc c ng. Ni dung cng b bao gm s c tc trn mi c phiu c nh n, ngy ghi s, ngy khng hng quyn, ngy tr c tc v phng thc thanh ton. Ngy ghi s (ngy ng k cui cng): L ngy cht danh sch cc c ng hin hnh c quy n nh n c tc ca cng ty. Vo cui ngy ny, cng ty s lp danh sch cc c ng hin hnh c quyn nh n c tc c a t chi tr vo ngy cng b trc . c nh n c tc, cc c ng phi c tn trong danh sch ny. Ngy kha s thng c n nh trc ngy tr c tc mt thi gian nht nh. Ngy khng hng quyn (ngy khng c c tc): Bt u t ngy ny, nh u t no mua c phiu th s khng c quyn nh n c tc c a t chi tr cng b. Ngy ny thng c n nh trc ngy kha s mt thi gian nht nh, th ng ty thu c vo
thi gian hon t t giao dch thanh ton b tr trn th trng ch ng khon. V vo ngy ny, gi c phiu d kin s st gim m t kho n b ng vi s tin c tc v gi tr ny c rt ra kh i doanh nghip. Ngy chi tr : Th ng t hai n b n tu n sau ngy ghi s , cng ty th c hin chi tr c tc cho cc c ng. Vo ngy ny, mi c ng s nhn c ph n c tc c a mnh thng qua ti kho n lu k ho c nh n trc tip ti tr s c a cng ty. 1.1.2 Chnh sch c t c: 1.1.2.1 Khi nim: Chnh sch c tc l chnh sch n nh m c li nhu n ca cng ty c em ra phn phi nh th no. Li nhu n s c gi li ti u t cho cng ty hay c tr cho cc c ng. Li nhu n gi l i cung c p cho cc nh u t mt ngun tng tr ng li nhu n tim nng trong tng lai, trong khi c tc cung c p cho h mt phn ph i hin t i. Chnh sch c tc hay cn g i l chnh sch phn phi l mt trong ba quyt nh ti chnh quan tr ng trong mt doanh nghip v n c lin h m t thit vi hai chnh sch ti chnh cn l i l chnh sch ti tr v chnh sch u t. 1.1.2.2 T m quan tr ng ca chnh sch c tc: Trong cng ty c phn, vic quyt nh phn chia li tc c phn cho cc c ng l iu ht sc quan trng, n khng n thun ch l vic phn chia li cho cc c ng, m n cn lin quan m t thit n cng tc qu n l ti chnh c a cng ty c phn. Nh ng l do c a ra gi i thch cho t m quan trng c a chnh sch c tc nh sau: Th nh t, chnh sch c tc nh hng trc tip n li ch ca cc c ng . C tc cung c p cho c ng mt li nhun hu hnh th ng xuyn v l ngu n thu nhp duy nht m nh u t c th nhn c ngay trong hi n ti khi h u t vo cng ty. Do vy, vic cng ty c duy tr tr c tc n nh hay khng n nh, u n hay giao ng th t thng u lm nh hng n quan im ca nh u t v cng ty, do vy n c th dn n s bin ng gi tr c phiu c a cng ty trn th trng.
Th hai, chnh sch c tc nh hng n chnh sch ti tr c a cng ty . Thng qua vic quyt nh chnh sch c tc m cng ty cng quyt nh lun chnh sch ti tr . V li nhu n gi li l ngu n quan tr ng cho vic ti tr vn c phn cho khu vc t nhn. Nn t , chnh sch c tc nh hng n s lng v n c phn th ng trong cu trc v n c a mt doanh nghip, v m rng ra, nh hng n chi ph s dng v n ca doanh nghi p. Ngoi ra, nu chi tr c tc th cc doanh nghi p ph i b tr li ngun ti tr thiu h t do li nhun gi li t b ng vic huy ng v n t bn ngoi vi nhi u th t c ph c tp, v tn nhiu chi ph hn. Th ba, chnh sch c tc nh hng ti chnh sch u t c a cng ty . Vi ngu n ti tr c chi ph s d ng v n thp t li nhu n gi l i, s lm cho chi ph s dng v n c a doanh nghip mc tng i th p. V ng thi, li nhu n gi l i lun s n c ti doanh nghip. T , doanh nghip c th linh ho t l a chn u t vo cc d n c t su t sinh li cao. Nh vy, li nhu n gi l i c th kch thch tng tr ng li nhun trong tng lai v do c th nh hng n gi tr c phn c a doanh nghip trong tng lai. 1.1.2.3 Cc ch tiu o lng chnh sch c t c: C tc m t c phn th ng (Dividend per Share - DPS): C tc m t c phn l ch tiu phn nh mc thu nhp th c t m mi c phn c h ng t kt qu ho t ng kinh doanh. C tc mt c phn c tnh d a vo phn trm mnh gi c ph n th ng. C tc m t c phn th ng cng c th c tnh ton nh sau:
V c tc mt c phn th ng l thu nhp th c t m nh u t nhn c ngay trong hin ti nn nh u t rt quan tm n ch tiu ny. Cc c ng thng ch n mc thay i trong c tc t k ny sang k khc. M t s tng ln trong c tc mt c
phn th ng mang li hiu ng tt trong tm l c a cc nh u t v ngc li nu c tc m t c phn b s t gi m. Nhng ch tiu c tc mt c phn th ng khng ph i l ch tiu o lng trit ca chnh sch c tc. V, nu da vo ch tu ny, nh u t ch bit h nhn c bao nhiu tin t c tc, ch h khng bit cng ty trch bao nhiu phn trm t li nhu n sau thu chia c tc cho cc c ng, v bao nhiu gi li cho u t. V c mt ch tiu khc c th o l ng c yu c u ny l t l chi tr c tc. T l chi tr c tc (Dividend payout ratio): T l chi tr c tc l t s ph n nh mc c tc m cc c ng ca cng ty c phn c h ng chim t l bao nhiu trong thu nh p m t c phn th ng m cng ty t o ra trong k v c tnh nh sau:
T l chi tr c tc cng cho bit cng ty dnh ra bao nhiu ph n trm t thu nh p m t c phn thng ti u t. T l chi tr c tc cng cao ph n nh cng ty s dng i b phn li nhun sau thu chi tr c tc cho cc c ng, ng thi ch c mt phn nh li nhun gi l i ti u t. V ngc l i vi t l chi tr c tc th p. Nh ng n h u t no mun tm kim thu nh p cho nh ng nhu c u tiu dng trong hin ti s thch mt cng ty c t l chi tr c tc cao. Ngc li, nh ng nh u t cha c nhu cu nh n thu nhp t c tc ngay trong hi n t i v mong ch mt s gia tng gi tr c phn thng trong tng lai th h l i thch cc cng ty c t l chi tr c tc thp v gi l i li nhu n nhiu hn ti u t. T su t c tc (Dividend Yield): T sut c tc l t l phn trm gi a c tc v th gi c phiu, hay t l c tc m nh u t nhn c so vi s tin m h phi tr mua c phi u .
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Trong cng th c trn, ty theo nhu c u o l ng khc nhau m chng ta c th s dng gi tr th tr ng mi c ph n cc k khc nhau, ho c khc vi k chia c tc. Nh chng ta bit, thu nh p c a nh u t gm hai phn l c tc v chnh lch gi do chuyn nh ng c phn. Nh vy, t su t c tc l t sut sinh li c a nh u t ch tnh ring cho thu nh p t c t c khi nh u t mua c phn ti m t m c gi th trng no , ngha l t su t c tc ph n nh nh u t s nh n c bao nhiu ng c tc t mt ng u t vo c phiu t i m c gi th tr ng. T su t c tc cng cao th hi n rng nh u t c t su t sinh li t c tc cng cao, cn t su t c tc thp th iu cha hn xu bi v nh u t c th trng ch vo t sut sinh li t li v n c a gi c phiu trn th tr ng. M t t sut c tc mc cao (hay thp) cha chc phn nh c cng ty c chi tr c tc cao (hay th p) khng, v t sut c tc cn ph thuc vo gi c phn trn th trng. Do vy, m ch tiu ny ch dng so snh chnh sch c tc c a nh ng cng ty khc nhau nhng c nhng c im ging nhau v quy m, ngnh ngh kinh doanh v c mc gi c phiu l tng ng nhau. 1.1.2.4 Cc phng th c chi tr c t c: Tr c tc b ng tin mt: Hu ht c tc ca cc cng ty c tr bng tin m t, bi iu ny s thun li cho c ng, v y l ngu n thu nh p ngay trong hin t i m h c th s d ng m khng phi t n chi ph giao dch nh bn i c phn thu v tin m t. C tc tin mt l s n v tin t m cng ty thanh ton cho ch s h u tnh trn m t c ph n, ho c theo m t t l ph n trm so vi m nh gi c phi u. Trong trng h p ny, c tc c chi tr t ti kho n tin m t c a doanh nghip vi mt bt ton i ng trong ti kho n li nhu n gi l i. Tr c tc bng tin mt s lm gim tin m t dn n gi m ti s n v gi m li nhu n cha phn phi trn b ng cn i k ton, t c gim ngu n v n ch s hu. Nh vy vic tr c tc bng tin m t s nh
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h ng trc tip ti kh nng thanh ton v ngun ti tr cho cc nhu c u u t trong tng lai ca cng ty. Tr c tc b ng c ph n: M t c tc c phn l chi tr thm c phn th ng cho cc c ng theo mt t l nht nh m cng ty khng nh n c kho n tin thanh ton no t pha c ng. Thc cht, y l vic phn b theo t l cc c ph n b sung c a m t cng ty cho cc c ng. N lin quan n vic chuyn tin t ti kho n li nhun gi li sang cc ti kho n v n c ph n th ng khc c a cc c ng. Tc ng rng c a giao dch ny l tng s c phn ang lu hnh, v ti phn phi vn gi a cc ti kho n v n ca doanh nghip. T ng v n c phn th ng v tri quyn c a mi c ng i vi li nhu n c a doanh nghip c gi nguyn khng i. Cc cng ty tin hnh tr c tc bng c phn v nhng l do sau y. Th nh t, v cc c ng th ng bn c ph n m h nh n c t c tc, nn m t c tc c phn lm thong hn quyn s h u cc c ph n c a mt doanh nghi p. Th hai, khi doanh nghip chi tr c tc tin mt, mt c tc c phn lm gia tng trn thc t trong c tc tin mt. Th ba , mt c tc c phn s lm gim gi c ph n so vi lc trc nn lm tng tnh hp d n ca c phi u trong mt cc nh u t v cc nh u t d mua hn do gi thp hn. Tr c tc b ng ti s n khc: Mc d khng c tnh ch t ph bi n, song cc cng ty c ph n cng c th tr c tc bng cc ti s n khc. Chng h n, c ng c th nhn c tc b ng cc ti s n khc c a cng ty nh cc thnh ph m, hng ha, cc chng khon c a mt cng ty khc m cng ty s hu, b t ng sn,. Vic tr c tc b ng ti sn khc s lm gi m ti sn vi mt bt ton tng ng trong li nhu n gi li. Theo Lut doanh nghip nm 2005 , cc cng ty c phn Vit Nam c php chi tr c tc bng ti s n khc. Nhng vic tr c tc bng ti sn khc ti Vit Nam hin nay gp ph i mt s v ng m c nh t nh. Th nh t, cc vn bn php lut cha c
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h ng d n c th, gy kh khn cho doanh nghip v cc c quan qun l trong cc th tc lm h s xin php chi tr c tc bng ti s n. Th hai, cc c quan qun l gp kh khn trong cng tc nh gi ti s n khc , cng nh nh gi kho n c tc iu chnh gi tham chiu ca c phiu. Th ba, doanh nghi p g p mt s kh khn nht nh trong qu trnh tri n khai, nh lm th no chia trn t l c tc l ti s n cho tt c cc c ng. Mua l i c ph n: Thay v chi tr c tc tin mt, i khi m t vi doanh nghi p cng mua li cc c phn ang lu hnh. C phn mua l i c gi l c phn ngn qu . Cc doanh nghi p thc hin mua li c ph n theo mt s cch thc nh mua trc tip t cc c ng ca mnh bng cch a ra mt m c gi m, ho c c th mua l i th tr ng t do, hay c th thng lng ring mua li t nh ng ngi nm gi mt lng ln cc c phn nh cc nh ch ch ng h n. Mua li c phn c xem nh l m t quyt nh c tc, v mua li c phn l cch thc m li nhu n ca doanh nghip c chi tr di hnh thc li vn. V vy, nu khng k thu, cc chi ph giao dch v cc b t hon h o c a th trng th cc c ng s khng quan tm gi a li nhu n tng ng t c tc tin m t v mua l i c phn, hay ni cch khc gi tr doanh nghip s khng chu tc ng ca cch th c phn ph i c tc tin mt hay mua li c phn. Tuy nhin trn thc t, mua li c phn lm gia tng gi tr doanh nghip. Quyt nh mua l i c phn c a mt cng ty th ng xu t pht t cc l do sau: C phn ngn qu c s d ng cho cc ho t ng sp nh p v mua li cng ty d dng hn, p ng cc iu kho n chuyn i c phn u i v tri khon cng ty, cng nh vic s d ng cc ch ng ch c quyn mua ch ng khon, v p ng nhu cu c phn mi trong cc chng trnh quyn c mua ch ng khon c a cp iu hnh hay cc k ho ch mua ch ng khon c a nhn vin trong doanh nghi p. Mua li c phn cn lm tng li nhun m i c ph n cho s c ph n ang lu hnh cn li
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v cng lm tng gi c ph n (nu P/E khng i cho mi c ph n trc v sau khi mua li). Cc doanh nghi p quyt nh mua li c phn thay v chi tr c tc bng tin mt h ng cc li th ca thu nh trn thu nhp li v n th p hn so vi c tc tin mt (ho c t ra v thu nh p li v n c th c hon thu n cc thi im trong tng lai). Mua li c phn cn c dng pht ra cc tn hi u tch c c cho cc c ng v cc d kin c a ban iu hnh r ng li nhu n v dng tin c a doanh nghip s cao hn trong tng lai. 1.1.3 Cc chnh sch c tc trong th c tin: 1.1.3.1 Chnh sch l i nhu n gi li th ng: Chnh sch li nhu n gi li th ng xc nh n rng mt doanh nghip nn gi li li nhu n khi doanh nghip c cc c hi u t h a h n cc t sut sinh li cao hn t sut sinh li mong i m cc c ng i hi. Bi l, vic chi tr c tc s dn n kt cu c ho c l doanh nghi p hy sinh cc c hi u t c th ch p nh n c ho c ph i huy ng thm v n c ph n cn thit t cc th trng vn bn ngoi tn km hn nhi u so vi li nhu n gi l i. Din dch m t cch chnh xc th l thuyt gi li li nhu n ng l chi tr c tc thay i t nm ny sang nm khc v ty thu c vo cc c hi u t c sn. Chnh sch li nhun gi l i th ng cn c gi l chnh sch thng d c tc. T thng d cp n phn cn li, v chnh sch thng d c tc n r ng c tc ch c tr trn phn cn li c a thu nhp. Theo l thuyt ny, cng ty ch thc hin vic chi tr c tc sau khi u tin gi li li nhu n ti u t, m b o c cu huy ng vn ti u cho u t ca cng ty. Nh vy doanh nghi p s theo bn bc sau khi tnh t l chi tr c tc khi p d ng chnh sch l i nhu n gi l i th ng: Th nh t, xc nh ngn sch v n ti u . Th hai, quyt nh l ng vn cn thit ti tr cho ngn sch ny, vi cu trc v n m c tiu c. Th ba, s dng thu nh p gi li p ng yu c u v n mc c th. Th t, tr c tc ch khi thu nh p c c ln hn mc cn thit p ng yu c u ngn sch vn ti u.
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Nh vy, nu doanh nghip theo ui chnh sch ny m t cch c ng nh c th mc c tc tr trong b t k nm no cng c th c m t trong ph ng trnh sau: C t c = Thu nh p rng Thu nh p gi li ti u t = Thu nh p rng (T l v n c ph n mc tiu * Tng ngn sch v n) Chnh sch li nhu n gi li th ng cng xut mt cng ty tng trng nn c t l chi tr c tc th p hn cc cng ty ang trong giai on sung mn (bo ha). Vi nh ng c im trn, chnh sch li nhu n gi li th ng c nhng u v nhc im nh sau: u im: Th nh t, gip cng ty ch ng trong vic s dng li nhu n gi li ti u t, nm bt kp th i cc c hi tng trng. i vi nh ng cng ty c nhi u c hi u t tng trng, vic tng cng u t cho pht trin to ra th mnh cho cng ty l vn c u tin hng u. V th, trong qu trnh phn chia l i nhu n sau thu, trc ht cng ty dnh phn li nhu n c n thit p ng yu c u u t. S li nhu n gi li c xem xt d a trn kh nng li li nhu n ti u t trong m i lin h vi cu trc v n ti u. Th hai, gip cng ty gim bt nhu c u huy ng v n t bn ngoi vi chi ph s dng v n cao m li v a phc tp v a tn km chi ph huy ng khng c n thit. Chnh sch ny c bit thch hp cho cc doanh nghi p nh , mi khi s, nh ng doanh nghip ny g p kh khn trong vic huy ng vn t bn ngoi. Hn na, iu ny lm s lm gim h s n, gim ri ro thanh ton, v gi m c chi ph s d ng v n c a cng ty. Cng ty ch thc hin huy ng v n t bn ngoi (pht hnh c phn mi, pht hnh tri phiu, vay n ngn hn) khi li nhu n li khng p ng yu c u u t. Th ba, lm tng v ng chc v ti chnh c a cng ty. Vi vic gia tng gi li li nhu n sau thu ti u t, s lm tng quy m v n ch s hu, t lm tng mc vng chc v ti chnh, v lm tng kh nng vay n sau ny cho cng ty.
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Th t, gip c ng c th trnh thu, ho c hon thu thu nh p c nhn. Vi c gi li phn ln li nhu n sau thu ti u t s lm gi m thu nh p t c tc c a cc c ng, iu ny v a gip c ng c th trnh ph i np thu thu nh p c nhn mc cao, ho c hon np thu thu nh p c nhn sang cc k sau. Th nm, vic ch ng gi li li nhun ti u t s gip cng ty trnh phi pht hnh thm c phn m i, do gip c ng hin ti trnh phi chia s quyn kim sot, bi u quyt v phn chia thu nh p cao cho cc c ng mi. i u ny to thu n li cho cng ty trong vi c qun l iu hnh ho t ng kinh doanh. Nhc im: Nh vy, chng ta thy rng theo chnh sch li nhun gi li th ng th t l chi tr c tc s thay i ty thuc vo cc c hi u t, hoc ty thuc vo thu nhp ho c c hai. Do cc c hi u t v thu nhp ch c chn thay i hng nm, vic p d ng chnh sch li nhu n gi l i th ng mt cch c ng nh c s lm cho m c c tc rt khng n nh. Nm ny, cng ty c th khng tr c tc v cng ty c n tin ti tr cho cc c hi u t tt, song nm khc cng ty c th tr c tc rt cao do khng c nhi u cc c hi u t. Tng t nh vy, thu nh p bin ng thng xuyn cng s dn ti mc c tc bin ng, th m ch nu cc c hi u t l n nh. S khng n nh v thu nh p c tc s nh hng n tm l c a cc nh u t c bit l cc nh u t a thch c tc n nh. iu ny s nh h ng xu ti gi c phiu c a cng ty trn th trng, cng nh hnh nh c a cng ty trong con m t c a gii ti chnh. M t khc, khi p dng c ng nh c chnh sch ny th vic u tin gi li li nhu n c th dn ti gim thiu h s n trn vn c ph n ca cng ty, iu ny c th ph v c u trc v n ti u ca cng ty. 1.1.3.2 Chnh sch c t c tin m t n nh: Chnh sch c tc tin m t n nh c xy dng trn c s l thuyt n nh li tc c phn. Theo , cng ty duy tr chi tr c tc lin tc qua cc nm vi m c chi tr cc nm tng i n nh, c th c s bin ng, song khng ng k so vi s bin
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ng c a li nhun. Tnh n nh c c trng bng mt s min c ng trong vic gim lng tin m t chi tr c tc t k ny sang k khc, v cng ty ch thc hin chi tr c tc mc cao hn khi cng ty c th t c s gia tng li nhun mt cch v ng chc, kh nng tng c tc, ng thi khi tng th s c gng duy tr c tc mc nh cho n khi cng ty th y r l khng th hy vng ngn chn c s gim st li nhun ko di trong thi tng lai. L thuyt c a chnh sch c tc tin mt n nh xu t pht t tm l c a cc nh qun l cho rng cc c ng thng a thch s tng trng n nh c a c tc. Ngay c trong trng h p c s m bo chc ch n cho vic tng c tc ln cao, th cc nh qun l cng ch tng t l c tc ln mt ph n no rt t so vi s gia tng trong li nhu n c a cng ty. Bi v cc nh qu n l c tm l ch i xem vic tng li nhun c t ra bn vng hay khng trc khi iu chnh tng c tc. Chnh sch chi tr c tc tin m t n nh c nhng u im v nhc im nh sau: u im: Th nh t: Nhiu nh u t cm th y cc thay i c tc c ni dung hm ch a thng tin, h nh ng cc thay i trong mc c tc c a m t doanh nghip vi kh nng sinh li. Mt c t gim trong c tc c th c din dch nh mt tn hiu l tim nng li nhu n di hn c a doanh nghi p st gim. Tng t, mt gia tng trong c tc c coi l m t minh ch ng cho mt d ki n rng li nhun tng lai s gia tng. Do ni dung hm ch a thng tin m chnh sch c tc tin mt n nh t o ra s hp dn i vi cc nh u t, v to ra mt hnh nh p v s n nh kinh doanh c a cng ty. T , tc ng lm tng gi c phiu ca cng ty trn th tr ng. Th hai: Nhiu c ng cn v l thuc vo mt dng c tc khng i cho cc nhu cu li nhun tin m t c a mnh. D h c th bn bt m t s c phn nh mt ngu n thu nhp hin ti khc nhng do cc chi ph giao dch v cc ln bn vi l l cho nn phng n ny khng th thay th m t cch hon ho cho thu nh p u n t c tc. Do vy, nu cng ty thc hin tr c tc n nh s dn n n nh thnh ph n c
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ng, to iu kin thun li cho cng tc qun l v iu hnh ho t ng kinh doanh ca cng ty. Nu c tc ca cng ty dao ng tht th ng s gy bin ng thnh phn c ng do s dch chuyn u t ca mt b phn c ng trong cng ty sang cng ty khc c chnh sch c tc n nh hn. Th ba: Mt vi gim c ti chnh th y rng mt chnh sch c tc tng tr ng v n nh thng c xu hng lm gi m s bt trc ca cc nh u t v cc dng c tc tng lai. H tin r ng cc nh u t s tr gi cao hn cho c phn c a mt doanh nghip chi tr c tc n nh, do lm gim chi ph s dng v n c phn c a doanh nghip. Th t: C tc n nh l mt i hi mang tnh php l. Nhi u nh ch ti chnh nh cc cc phng y thc c a ngn hng, qu hu b ng, v cc cng ty b o him thng gii hn nh ng lo i c phn m h c php s hu. tiu chun lit k trong cc danh sch hp php ny, m t doanh nghip phi c mt thnh tch c tc lin tc v n nh. Vic khng chi tr hoc c t gi m mt s lng c tc c th a n vic b gt tn ra khi cc danh sch ny. iu ny s lm gi m th trng tim nng cho c phn ca doanh nghip v c th lm gi c phn st gi m. Ngoi ra, m t s qu c gia, m t trong cc tiu chu n m t doanh nghip nim yt trn th trng ch ng khon l thnh tch c tc c a cng ty ph i lin tc v khng b gin on. Vic c nim yt trn th tr ng ch ng khon to iu ki n thu n li cho doanh nghi p huy dng v n, m t khc cn lm tng uy tn trong kinh doanh c a cng ty. Nhc im: Vic p d ng chnh sch c tc tin m t n nh cng c th gy ra nh ng b t li i vi cng ty, nh cng ty khng ch ng trong vic s d ng ngu n li nhun gi li p ng cc nhu c u u t cho tng tr ng, b sung tng vn kinh doanh. iu ny c th dn ti vic ph i huy ng v n t bn ngoi l ch yu p ng nhu c u u t. Chnh sch ny th ng khng th ph h p cho cc cng ty nh , mi khi s, ho c ang trong giai on tng tr ng. V cc doanh nghi p ny c li nhu n khng n nh
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m chng li ang rt c n huy ng tin cho nhu c u vn thiu h t p ng nhu c u u t, nn vic chi tr c tc t ngu n tin m t qu gi s buc chng phi tm ngu n ti tr t bn ngoi, trong khi vi quy m v danh ti ng c a mnh cc doanh nghi p ny li gp kh khn l n trong vic huy ng v n trn th tr ng v n. Ngoi ra, nu m t doanh nghip i vay nhiu b tr cho chnh sch c tc tin mt th ng xuyn s lm tng mc ri ro ti chnh c a doanh nghip. 1.1.3.3 Chnh sch c t c c t l chi tr khng i: M t vi doanh nghi p thc hin chnh sch c tc c t l chi tr khng i. y l cch tr p d ng trong nhiu cng ty M, theo cc cng ty lun c gng duy tr m t t l ph n trm nh s n gi a ph n tr c tc v thu nhp mi c phn. Nu li nhu n ca doanh nghip thay i nhiu t nm ny sang nm khc th c tc cng giao ng theo. V c bn, t l chi tr c tc khng i c a cc doanh nghi p th ng xoay quanh cc t l chi tr mc tiu di hn. Cc doanh nghi p lun bm st cc t l chi tr c tc mc tiu ny v chng s thay i c tc chi tr bt c khi no li nhu n thay i. Cc doanh nghi p c thu nhp tng i n nh theo thi gian s thch mt chnh sch c tc c t l chi tr khng i, trong nu doanh nghip ang giai on sung mn th t l chi tr khng i s mc cao, cn cc doanh nghi p ny ang giai on tng tr ng th t l chi tr c tc khng i s m c th p hn. Di y l nhng u v nhc im ca chnh sch c tc c t l chi tr khng i. u im: Th nh t, chnh ny c bit thch h p cho cc doanh nghi p c thnh tch l i nhun n nh, mc tng tr ng li nhu n mi nm mc khng i. Cc doanh nghi p thuc lo i ny thng l cc doanh nghip cng ch, cc doanh nghi p ho t ng trong cc ngnh khng mang tnh chu k ho c mt ngnh bo ha. Khi chnh sch c tc c t l chi tr khng i s mang n mt mc c tc chi tr cho cc c ng cng
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nh li nhu n gi l i n nh t k ny sang k khc. T , lm cho cc doanh nghip ny thc hin cng tc qu n l ti chnh c n gin hn. Th hai, vi chnh sch c tc ny, cc doanh nghi p c li nhun n nh th ng d dng quyt nh cng nh thc hin chnh sch c tc ca mnh trong mi nm. Cc doanh nghip ny d dng ch ng gi l i m t mc li nhu n khng i mi nm d a trn nhu cc nhu c u u t c nh trc. T , cc doanh nghip cng d dng duy tr c c u trc v n m c tiu nh trc ca mnh. Nhc im: Nu doanh nghi p p dng chnh sch c tc c t l chi tr khng i mt cch c ng nhc s a n s bin ng th t thng trong c tc qua cc k , v li nhu n thng thay i t nm ny sang nm khc. Khi chnh sch chi tr c tc c t l chi tr khng i s mang nhng nhc im nh chnh sch li nhu n gi l i th ng ch ng hn nh c tc bin ng th t thng s nh h ng x u n tm l c a nh u t, v lm nh hng khng tt n gi c phn trn th trng. Ngoi ra, vic p d ng chnh sch ny lm cho doanh nghi p khng ch ng trong vic gi li li nhu n cho cc c hi u t trong tng lai. Li nhun gi li s tng khi thu nhp tng, v li nhu n gi li s gi m khi thu nhp s t gim, lm cho doanh nghi p c th thiu h t tin m t trong nm ny nhng li d th a tin m t trong nm khc m khng bit u t vo u. 1.1.3.4 Chnh sch chi tr c tc nh hng qu cng v i c tc thng thm vo cu i nm: Chnh sch chi tr c tc nh hng qu c ng vi c tc th ng thm vo cui nm c th c coi l s kt hp ca hai chnh sch c tc tin mt n nh v chnh sch l i nhu n gi l i th ng. y l chnh sch c tc m mt doanh nghi p s t ra mc tr c tc nh k rt thp c th duy tr cc thi im khc nhau v sau s chi tr c tc b sung hay ph tri khi kinh doanh i ln. M i cng ty s cng b mt mc c tc nh k th p m cng ty tin t ng c th duy tr d nc ln cao hay xu ng thp, y l mc c tc m cc c ng c th chc
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chn nh n c trong m i hon c nh. Sau , khi kinh doanh tt hn v li nhu n, dng tin m c cao, cng ty s tr c tc tng thm. Chnh sch c tc ny c nh ng u im v nhc im nh sau: u im: Th nh t, chnh sch phn phi ny c bit thch ch p cho mt doanh nghip c thnh tch li nhun dao ng m nh qua cc nm, v nhu cu tin m t bin ng t nm ny sang nm khc, hay c hai. Ngay c khi li nhun th p, cc nh u t ca doanh nghip vn c th tin c y vo chi tr c tc u n ca h . Khi li nhun cao, v khng c nhu c u s dng ngay dng ti n di ra ny, doanh nghi p c th cng b mt mc c tc th ng vo cui nm. Th hai, chnh sch c tc ny cho ban iu hnh mt kh nng linh hot gi li li nhu n khi c n m vn tha mn c cc nh u t mu n nh n mt mc chi tr c tc bo m. Th ba , cc nh u t bit r ng ph n tng thm c th khng c trong tng lai, do h khng cho r ng ph n tng thm c a c tc th ng cui nm c tc ng pht tn hiu l thu nh p trong tng lai c a cng ty s mi m c cao. V, h cng khng coi vic khng c kho n c tc tng thm l tn hiu x u. Nhc im: Chnh sch ny a n cho doanh nghi p nhiu vn ph c tp trong quyt nh cng nh thc hin chnh sch chi tr c tc. Doanh nghip s gp kh khn hn trong vic xc nh m c c tc nh hng qu l bao nhiu n khng mc qu cao c th nh hng n c tc thng cui nm hay nh hng n li nhun gi li cn thit, cng nh l bao nhiu n khng qu nh khng th p ng nhu c u l thu nhp ch c ch n th ng xuyn c a c ng. Ngoi ra, vic cng b chi tr nhi u ln trong mt nm lm cho doanh nghip ph i t n nhiu chi ph trong vi c t chc cng tc chi tr c tc cho cc c ng, nh chi ph cng b, chi ph thc hin chi tr c tc,.
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1.2
Cc trng phi trn th gi i v chnh sch c tc v gi tr doanh nghi p:
1.2.1 Tr ng phi trung dung: Tr ng phi trung dung m nhng i din tiu biu l Merton Miller v Franco Modigliani (MM), Black Scholes l p lun rng chnh sch c tc khng tc ng ti gi tr doanh nghip, m gi tr doanh nghip do quyt nh u t n nh v n quyt nh dng thu nhp trong tng lai ca cng ty v do vy, quyt nh gi tr ca cng ty. Cn chnh sch phn chia dng thu nhp thnh c tc v thu nhp gi li nh th no l khng quan trng. H cho rng tc ng ca mt chnh sch c tc no c th c b tr chnh xc bng cc hnh thc ti tr khc nh vic bn c phn thng chng h n. Nh ng l p lu n c a tr ng phi trung dung ch ph hp khi c d a trn cc iu kin c a mt th tr ng v n hiu qu v hon h o vi nhng gi nh nh sau: Th nh t, khng c thu . Theo gi nh ny th nh u t khng bn tm v vic h s nhn thu nh p c tc hay thu nhp li v n. Th hai, khng c chi ph giao d ch . Gi nh ny ng r ng cc nh u t u t vo chng khon c a cc doanh nghi p chi tr t ho c khng chi tr c tc c th bn li (khng c ph t n) b t c s c phn no m h mun bn chuyn i li v n thnh thu nh p thng xuyn. Th ba , khng c chi ph pht hnh . Nu cc doanh nghi p khng ph i tr chi ph pht hnh cho vic pht hnh ch ng khon mi, h c th th c c v n c phn cn thit vi cng chi ph, khng k h gi li li nhun hay chi tr c tc. Th t , s hin h u mt chnh sch u t c nh . Theo MM, chnh sch u t c a doanh nghip khng chu tc ng c a chnh sch c tc. Hn n a, MM cho r ng chnh chnh sch u t, ch khng ph i chnh sch c tc, th t s n nh gi tr doanh nghip. Ngoi ra, MM cn cho r ng s hin h u c a mt hiu ng khch hng cng khng c tc ng n gi tr c phn. MM v trng phi trung dung th a nhn rng mt doanh nghip thay i chnh sch c tc c th mt mt s c ng thng qua cc doanh
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nghip khc c chnh sch c tc hp dn hn. i u ny li c th a n s st gim tm thi gi c phn c a doanh nghip. Tuy nhin, cc nh u t khc thch chnh sch c tc mi s cho rng c phn ca doanh nghip b bn di gi v s mua thm c phn. Trong th gii ca MM, cc giao dch ny din ra tc kh c v khng c ph tn cho nh u t, kt qu l gi tr c a c ph n gi nguyn khng i. Nhng ngc li, MM cng nhn th y rng c nh ng ch ng c thc nghim ng k cho thy rng cc thay i trong chnh sch c tc nh hng n gi c ph n. Hai ng khng nh rng cc thay i quan st c trong gi tr doanh nghip l do ni dung hm ch a thng tin (ho c do tc ng pht tn hi u) c a chnh sch c tc, ch khng phi m hnh chi tr c tc. Mt gia tng trong c tc s chuyn ti thng tin n cc c ng l ban iu hnh doanh nghi p d ki n thu nh p tng lai s cao hn. Tng t, mt c t gim c tc xem nh truyn t thng tin bt li v trin v ng li nhun ca doanh nghip. Do vy m chnh sch c tc c nh hng n gi c phn hay gi tr doanh nghi p. Tuy nhin quan im ny ch c ngha khi tho mn hai iu kin: Th nht, cc nh u t coi trng cc thng tin ny; Th hai, c tc l mt tn hiu v trin vng pht trin ca cng ty v c tc l mt tn hiu ng tin cy hn cc tn hiu khc. Cc nh u t lun quan tm n chnh sch c tc v c tc l mt trong hai ngun thu nhp chnh ca h. Cn mc tin cy cao ca chnh sch c tc khi ng vai tr l tn hiu v kh nng tng trng ca cng ty l hon ton c th l gii c. V thc t, nu cng ty tuyn b tng c tc m khng c thu nhp tr th s phi huy ng vn t bn ngoi hoc phi hy sinh cc khon u t trong tng lai. V th, tng c tc l mt tn hiu c tin cy cao hn v rng buc trch nhim ca nh qun l cng ty nhiu hn cc tn hiu khc1.
Th.S. Nguyn Kim Thu, Chnh sch c tc hp l - Mt bi ton cha c li gii? , Tp ch chng
khon, thng 11, nm 2008.
23
1.2.2 Tr ng phi t khuynh c p tin: Tr ng phi t khuynh c p tin cho r ng th tr ng s t ng th ng cho cc doanh nghip c chnh sch chi tr c tc thp. H khng nh r ng doanh nghi p no chi tr c tc th sau s sa ch a li lm bng cch pht hnh c phn mi. B t c doanh nghip no m ch yu ti tr cho chnh sch c tc bng cch pht hnh c ph n th doanh nghip s ct gi m c tc n mt im m t nht t i vic pht hnh c phn l khng c n thit. D a vo cc ch im lp lu n ca mnh, trng phi cnh t yu c u mt chnh sch c tc thp th m ch l chi tr c tc b ng zero, v tin m t c sn s nn c gi li hoc mua l i c phn. c tin c a tr ng phi cnh t l gi tr m t doanh nghip s t mc ti a bng cch thit lp m t t l chi tr th p. Nh ng khng nh c a h v chnh sch chi tr c tc thp c d a trn nh ng l p lu n c bn sau y: Th nh t, nh ng l p lu n v thu . H lp lu n rng cc doanh nghi p khng nn chi tr c tc v c tc b nh thu cao hn li vn (o lu t thu M trc 1986) ho c t ra li v n khng ch u thu cho n khi bn c phn. Trong nghin c u v chnh sch c tc t nm 1920 v 1960 , John A. Brittain tm th y ch ng c h tr cho ki n ny, ni chung, ng th y rng thu sut tng lm gim t l chi tr c tc. Nh ng, nh ng nghin cu c a ng vo thi im khi m c s chnh lch rt ln gi a thu sut nh trn c tc v thu sut nh trn li vn, v ng th i, s ch nh lch ngy cng gia tng trong giai on nghin c u c a ng. C th nm 1920, thu sut nh trn c tc l 65% v thu su t nh trn li v n l 75%, chnh l ch l -10%, trong khi nm 1960, thu su t nh trn c tc l 90% v thu sut nh trn li vn l 25%, chnh l ch ti 65%. Nh ng lch s thay i, nh ng thay i trong chnh sch thu ca nc M giai on t 1961 n nm 2010 li c xu hng hi t vo nhau. S chnh lch gia hai mc thu sut tin v 0% vo nm 2003, v t nm 2008 n nm 2010 (hnh 1.1).
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Hnh 1.1: Lch s thu sut M t nm 1961 n nm 2011:
Thu sut nh trn c tc Thu sut nh trn li v n
Ngu n: Legg Mason Capital Management, thng 1/2011 Hnh 1.2: T l s lng cc doanh nghip chi tr c tc so vi t ng s cc doanh nghip S&P 500 tnh theo s lng v mc v n ho c a th tr ng t nm 1980 - 2010:
Tnh theo s lng
Tnh theo mc vn ho th trng
Ngu n: Aswath Damodaran (2010), Applied Corporate Finance, Third Edition
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Theo quan im ch quan c a bi nghin c u, s h i t hai mc thu su t ny l tt yu mt th tr ng ch ng khon pht tri n cao v t n s cng bng trong vic i x ca c quan thu i vi b t k m t ngun thu nh p no c a nh u t . T thc tin trn, cc doanh nghi p trn th tr ng ch ng khon khng cn tun theo xu hng gim chi tr c tc nh giai on trc n a (hnh 1.2). M t nm 1986 n nm 1990, cc doanh nghip gia tng chi tr c tc, s lng cc doanh nghi p chi tr c tc cng tng ln trong nhng nm ny. Xu h ng ny th t s bt u t nm 2003 (ngo i tr nm 2008 v nm 2009 do khng ho ng kinh t), s l ng cc doanh nghip chi tr c tc tng vt khi c chnh sch thu c a chnh ph khng cn b t c u i no gi a thu nh p c tc v thu nh p li v n. Do vy, m cu i cng nh ng lun im v thu ca trng phi cnh t ngy cng gi m gi tr so vi trc. Th hai, nh ng lp lu n v cc chi ph pht hnh . S hin din c a chi pht hnh l n ca vic bn c ph n th ng m i cng lm cho cc doanh nghip a thch gi li li nhu n hn. Vi chnh sch u t ca mt doanh nghi p, vic chi tr li nhun c n cho u t i hi doanh nghip huy ng v n c ph n t bn ngoi. Tuy nhin, v n c phn t bn ngoi tn km hn do chi ph pht hnh. V vy, vic s dng v n c phn t bn ngoi s lm tng chi ph s dng v n v lm gi m gi tr doanh nghip. Ngoi ra, chi ph c a vic bn cc pht hnh nh c phn thng nhm p ng nhu c u u t thng qu cao cho h u ht cc doanh nghi p. M t nghin c u vo nm 1994 v cc pht hnh mi ch ra rng chi ph ny chi m kho n 22% vn vay huy ng c nu doanh nghi p pht hnh th p h n 1 t $ tri phi u v 14% v n c phn huy ng c n u doanh nghip pht hnh thp h n 1 t $ c phn th ng mi (hnh 1.3). Nh ng chi ph ny cn l n h n n a nu doanh nghip ny l cc doanh nghip nh, t c uy tn trn th trng v kh khn trong vic tip cn th trng vn. V vy, cc doanh nghi p c cc c hi u t tng trng tt thng c khuynh h ng thch gi li li nhun hn.
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Hnh 1.3: Chi ph huy ng v n tnh theo ph n trm s vn huy ng bng cch pht hnh tri phiu v pht hnh c ph n th ng trn th tr ng ch ng khon M :
Ngu n: R. G. Ibbotson, J. L. Sindelar, and J. R. Ritter , Initial Public Offerings, Journal Of Applied Corporate Finance, vol.1, no.2 pp. 37 -45. 1.2.3 Tr ng phi h u khuynh b o th : Tr ng phi h u khuynh b o th m cc i din tiu biu l Myron J. Gordon, David Durand, Jonh Lintner l p lun rng gi tr c phn th t s ch u nh h ng c a s phn chia li nhu n cho c tc v gi l i ti u t. V c bn h ng r ng cc kin ca MM l h p l nu c cc gi nh hn ch ca m t th trng vn hi u qu v hon ho. Nhng chnh sch c tc tr nn quan trng hn khi khng c cc gi nh ny. Tr ng phi cnh h u tin rng chnh sch chi tr c tc cao s lm ti a ha gi tr doanh nghip, nn h xut cc doanh nghi p chi tr c tc cao. Nh ng khng nh ca trng phi cnh h u ch yu c d a trn nh ng l p lu n sau: Th nh t, nh ng lp lun v khng thch r i ro, cn c gi l l thuyt ch chim trong lng bn tay (Bird in the hand theory Tn t c a MM cho l thuyt ny). Gordon a ra nh ng b ng ch ng thc nghim kh ng nh rng cc c ng khng
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thch ri ro c th thch mt mc c tc no hn l ha hn li vn trong tng lai, v c tc l thu nhp thng xuyn, ch c ch n, trong khi li v n nh n c trong tng lai th t chc chn hn. Theo ng, c tc lm gim tnh b t trc c a c ng, cho php h chit kh u li nhun tng lai c a doanh nghip vi t l thp hn, do lm tng gi tr doanh nghip. V ngc li, vic khng chi tr c tc lm gia tng tnh bt trc ca c ng, lm tng sut chit khu v gim gi c phn. Th hai, nh ng lp lu n v chi ph giao dch. Khi cc c ng c nh n m t m c c tc thp hay thm ch khng nh n c c tc th h c th bn theo nh k s c phn h nm gi p ng nhu c u li nhu n hin ti ca mnh. Nhng do tn ti chi ph giao dch nn cc nh u t s phi b n tm h nh n c c tc tin m t hay c nh n li v n. Chi ph mi gii v cc chnh l ch l l lm cho vic bn c phn ca h rt tn km, nn vic bn c ph n khng th thay th m t cch hon ho cho cc chi tr c tc thng xuyn. Do vy, m cc nh u t vn mong nh n c c tc hn, v h tr gi cao hn cho cc c ph n p ng nhu c u c tc ca h. Th ba , nh ng lp lu n v chi ph i din. Vic chi tr c tc (dng tin chi ra) lm gim s lng li nhu n gi li c sn ti u t v i hi s dng nhiu v n c phn t bn ngoi hn ti tr tng tr ng. Vic huy ng vn t bn ngoi (nh bn c phn thng) trong cc th tr ng v n lm cho cng ty phi chu s gim st k lng c a cc c quan qun l th trng v cc nh u t tng lai, vic ny c coi nh m t chc nng gim st thnh qu ca ban iu hnh. Nh vy, vic chi tr c tc s lm gim chi ph i din gi a cc c ng v ban iu hnh, t lm tng gi tr doanh nghi p. 1.2.4 ngha trong cc tranh lu n ca mi tr ng phi: Cc l p lu n v chnh sch c tc v gi tr doanh nghip t trc n nay vn cn nhi u tranh ci ch a ng ng. Trong , cc tranh lun ch yu xoay quanh ba tr ng phi chnh l tr ng phi trung dung, tr ng phi t khuynh c p tin v trng ph i h u khuynh b o th . Nh ng t sau o lu t ci cch thu M vo nm 1986 v nm
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2003, th cc l p lun ca tr ng phi cnh t ngy cng tr nn t c ch trng h n. Cc tranh lu n hi n nay chuy n h ng t p trung vo cc b t hon h o c a th tr ng. Nhn chung, mi trng phi u c nh ng ng gp quan trng nh t nh cho nh ng kin thc hn lm v chnh sch c tc v gi tr doanh nghip: Th nh t, nh ng l p lun c a tr ng trung dung tuy r ng c d a trn nh ng gi nh ca m t th trng v n hon ho, nh ng chng li cc k c ngha trong vic nh gi tc ng c a chnh sch c tc ln gi tr doanh nghip. Cc nh qun tr hon ton c th s dng cc lp lu n ny thit lp chnh sch c tc m t cch c li nht n gi tr ca doanh nghip, b ng cch t ng bc loi b nh ng gi nh ca MM v nh gi nh ng tc ng c a t ng nhn t mt ln chnh sch c tc. ng thi, nh ng lp lun c a trng phi trung dung phn nh r rng chnh sch c tc v ni dung hm ch a thng tin c a chnh sch c tc. y l iu m cc nh ti chnh hc trc MM vn thng ng nh t chng lm mt, nn c nh ng nhn nh ch quan v chnh sch c tc. Th hai, tuy r ng cc lp lu n ca tr ng phi cnh t v tr ng phi cnh hu l i lp nhau, v mi trng phi li nh n mnh n mt kha c nh lin quan, nh ng chng li mang tnh thc t trong m t th trng v n khng hon h o. Chng ta hon ton c th ph i hp cc l p lun ny vo trong vic nh gi tc ng c a chnh sch c tc n cc mt li ch v thit hi n gi tr doanh nghip c th a ra chnh sch c tc ti u. Chnh sch c tc ti u c bi nghin c u ca chng ti a ra trong m hnh di y l chnh sch lm t i thiu ho cc chi ph pht sinh lin quan. Trong , cc chi ph c a ra lm hai nhm: Nhm th nh t (C1 ): Bao gm chi ph pht hnh, thit h i v thu c a cc c ng. y, thit hi v thu c tnh l chnh l ch trong kho n thu ph i tr trn c tc so vi kho n thu phi tr trn li v n, bao g m c cc chnh lch trong hin gi theo thi gian c a cc kho n thu ph i tr. Thit hi v thu c th m (ngha l li ch) khi thu
29
sut nh trn c tc l th p h n thu sut nh trn li v n, ph n thp h n ny vt ln c cc thit hi trong hin gi theo thi gian c a kho n thu nh trn c tc so vi kho n thu nh trn li v n. Nhm chi ph ny th s ng bin cng vi s gia tng t l chi tr c tc ca doanh nghip v n c th hi n bi ng C1. L p lu n ny c h tr bi quan im ca trng phi cnh t. Nhm th hai (C2): Bao gm chi ph i din, chi ph giao dch, cc chi ph ny c gim tr bi li ch t ri ro thp h n cho cc c ng c quan im rng c tc mang li cho h ri ro thp h n so vi li v n. M hnh c th linh ho t b i hoc thm vo phn gim tr ny trong nhm chi ph th hai tu theo quan im c a cc c ng. Nhm chi ph ny s nghch bin theo s gia tng trong t l chi tr c tc c a doanh nghip v n c th hin bi ng C2. L p lu n ny c h tr bi quan im ca trng phi cnh h u. Hnh 1.4: Chnh sch c tc t i u - Dung ho cc lp lu n ca tr ng phi cnh t v trng ph i cnh h u:
30
By gi , t ng chi ph l t ng cng c a hai nhm chi ph trn (TC = C1 + C2 ) v tng chi ph l mt hm s biu din theo t l chi tr c tc (hnh 1.5). Khi , chnh sch c tc ti u l chnh sch m t l chi tr c tc lm ti thiu ho tng chi ph ny. T l t ny c th khng ng nh t vi vi t l m ng C1 v ng C2 c t nhau. V n cn ph thu c vo hnh d ng th ca hai ng th ng ny. Tuy nhin, m hnh mang tnh l thuyt trn cn c nhc im l cha tnh n cc li ch hay chi ph t ni dung hm ch a thng tin c a chnh sch c tc, cng nh nhi u yu t tc ng khc ln m t chnh sch c tc s trnh by trong ph n d i y. K T LU N CHNG 1: Trn y, chng ta tho lu n cc c im ca chnh sch c tc v cc tr ng phi trn th gii v chnh sch c tc v gi tr doanh nghip. Trong , chnh sch c tc nu c tc ng n gi tr doanh nghip hay khng cng phi thng qua cc yu t tc ng ln b n thn n nh thu, chi ph pht hnh, chi ph giao dch, chi ph i din, bi v cc yu t ny lin quan tr c tip n chnh sch u t v chnh sch ti tr v u tin ca c ng trong doanh nghip. Ngha l chnh sch c tc s phn ng li theo h ng ti a ha gi tr doanh nghip trc cc yu t tc ng c a n. Nh vy, mu n xy d ng mt m hnh chi tr c tc ti u ha gi tr doanh nghip trong thc tin chng ta cng ph i nh gi c nh ng y u t tc ng ln chnh sch c tc. Theo qu an im c a bi nghin c u ny th nh ng nhn t c b n nh t tc ng ln chnh sch c tc l nh ng nhm yu t bn trong, thuc v n i t i ca doanh nghip v n trc tip nh h ng n chnh sch c tc thng qua dng tin thc chi tr c tc, chnh sch u t, chnh sch ti tr ca cng ty, v u tin c a c ng. Cc yu t cn li mun tc ng ln chnh sch c tc cng phi thng qua s tc ng ln cc yu t ny. T , ban qu n tr ph i cn nh c n tt c cc yu t nh h ng n chnh sch c tc nhng nn t chng vo nh ng nhm quan h chnh ph hay quan h nguyn nhn bn trong v nguyn nhn bn ngoi cho ph hp c th a ra c mt chnh sch c tc ti u nh t.
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CHNG 2: PHN TCH CHNH SCH C TC C A CC DOANH NGHIP NIM Y T TRN TH TR NG CHNG KHON VI T NAM: 2.1 Th c tr ng chi tr c tc ca cc doanh nghi p trong thi gian qua: Tnh n nh ca c tc chi tr qua cc nm: 2.1.1 Phn tch theo thi gian: 2.1.1.1 Tr c tin chng ta nh gi chung chnh sch c tc bng tin mt ca cc doanh nghip t n m 2001 n nm 2009 c ci nhn tng qut v chnh sch sch c tc m cc doanh nghip p d ng. Sau chng ta phn tch chi tit chnh sch c tc theo thi gian v theo ngnh c ci nhn c th h n. Hnh 2.1: Phn tr m s lng cc doanh nghip phn lo i theo mc n nh ca c tc chi tr t nm 2002 n nm 2009:
Ngu n:
tng
h p
http://cafef.vn, http://fpts.com.vn,
http://cophieu68.com,
http://stockbiz.vn (Xem ph l c hnh 2.1). Trong ba nm t nm 2003 n nm 2005, cc doanh nghi p trn th trng ch ng khon Vit Nam c xu hng chi tr c tc theo mt m c tin mt c nh. S lng cc doanh nghi p cng b c tc n nh t nm 2002 ti nm 2005 nhiu hn hn cc
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doanh nghip thay i c tc bao gm cc doanh nghi p gia tng c tc v c t gi m c tc. T nm 2006 n nm 2009, dng nh cc doanh nghip khng cn duy tr chnh sch c tc n nh nh lc trc. S lng cc doanh nghi p thay i c tc tng ln v chim t trng ln hn s l ng cc doanh nghi p c c tc n nh. Mc d mt vi nm s lng cc doanh nghi p gia tng trong c tc c t trng cao hn s lng cc doanh nghi p ct gi m c tc, nhng nhn chung mc chnh lch ny l khng ng k t nm 2006 n nm 2009. C th ni trong giai on ny, do nhiu bin ng ca nn kinh t, th trng ch ng khon v ho t ng sn xu t kinh doanh ca doanh nghip nn c tc chi tr cng bin ng theo. Hnh 2.2: Thu nh p v c tc mi c phn trung bnh c a th trng t nm 200 0 n nm 2010:
Nm 2000, s liu c c lng v nm 2010, s liu c tnh ton t nh ng cng ty hon thnh chi tr c tc nm 2010. Ngu n: tng h p t http://cafef.vn, http://fpts.com.vn, http://cophieu68.com, http://stockbiz.vn (Xem ph l c hnh 2.2).
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Chng ta cng khng ngo i tr m t nhn t lm bin ng trong chnh sch c tc ca cc doanh nghip l do yu t qu n tr ca ban iu hnh cc doanh nghi p. T nm 2006 n 2008, nhiu doanh nghip c tnh dng chnh sch c tc pht ra cc tn hiu trn th tr ng. Nu xem xt trn ton b thi k bo co t nm 2001 n nm 20 09 th c tc tin m t chi tr trn th tr ng ch ng khon Vit Nam v a mang tnh t ng i n nh v v a c khuynh hng theo sau li nhu n (hnh 2.2). Tnh n nh: Nhn ton thi k t nm 2000 - 2009, cc doanh nghi p li c xu hng chi tr c tc theo chnh sch c tc tin m t n nh. V bin ng trong thu nhp khc xa bin ng trong bin ng trong c tc. Nm 2008, mc d thu nh p mi c phn c xu h ng st gim nhng mc c tc chi tr vn khng thay i, n nm 2009 thu nh p tng tr li, nhng c tc chi tr khng tng. Khuynh h ng theo sau li nhun: Bng cch nh gi m i quan h gi a thu nh p m i c phn v c tc chi tr mi c phn, chng ta thy rng c tc chi tr c xu hng i theo li nhu n vi h s tng quan c a hai bin rt ln ti 49,84% (ph lc cc thng k chi tit v cc kim nh lin quan c a m hnh hi qui (1) Ma tr n tng quan) . 2.1.1.2 M c chi tr c t c mi c ph n qua cc nm: Trong thi gian qua, cc cng ty c phn ang nim yt trn th trng chng khon Vit Nam thng cng b chi tr c tc hng nm theo mt con s t l nht nh tnh trn mnh gi. V trong nm, cc cng ty thc hin tm ng chi tr c tc theo hng qu hoc hng na nm, ri sau khi kt thc nm ti chnh hoc lu hn, s ra quyt nh chi tr c tc cui cng. trnh ln ln vi t l chi tr c tc phn sau nn trong phn ny, chng ti gi t l chi tr c tc tnh theo mnh gi mt c ph n l mc chi tr c tc mi c ph n (n v % trn mnh gi). Cn c theo s lng cc cng ty vi cc mc tr c tc khc nhau hnh 2.3, chng ta thy rng s lng cc cng ty c cc mc chi tr c tc mi c phn tp trung mc 10% - 20% so vi mnh gi l chim a s qua cc nm .
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Giai o n t nm 2001 n nm 2004, cc cng ty p dng mc chi tr c tc t 10% n 20% trn mnh gi mi c phn cng chim mt s lng ng k nh ng cc doanh nghip chi tr c tc tin mt mc t 0% n 5% trn mnh gi mi c phn l nhi u h n. C th , trong nm 2002 ch ring nhm mc c tc ny c hn 50% cc doanh nghip p dng, v cc nm sau nhm mc c tc ny vn c phn ln cc doanh nghip p dng. Nhiu doanh nghip khng chia c tc trong sut giai on ny chng hn nh Cng Ty C Phn Xut Nhp Khu Thu Sn C u Long An Giang (ACL), cng ty C Phn G ch Men Chang Yih (CYC), Cng Ty C Ph n Phn Bn V Ho Cht D u Kh (DPM), Cng Ty C Ph n Cao Su ng Ph (DPR), Cng Ty C Phn Cao Su N ng (DRC),. Hnh 2.3: S lng cc doanh nghi p nim yt phn lo i theo cc nhm mc c tc khc nhau qua cc nm:
Ngu n:
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http://stockbiz.vn (Xem ph l c hnh 2.3). Nhng giai on sau, t nm 2004 n nm 2009, xu hng ca m c chi tr c tc trn mnh gi mi c phn tng ln v t t 10% n 20%. Cc doanh nghip p dng mc chi tr c tc ny lun lun chim t trong cao (nm 2005: 56.36%, nm 2006:
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54.63%, nm 2007: 59.54%, nm 2008: 47.87%). Ring nm 2009, trong s cc doanh nghip thng k c c ti 199 doanh nghip , chim hn 48.5%, p dng mc chi tr c tc t 10% n 20% trn mnh gi mi c phn (hnh 3.4). C th trong giai on ny c nhng doanh nghip tiu biu nh Cng Ty C Ph n u T V Th ng Mi (DIC), Cng Ty C Ph n C Ph n Xy L p B u in H Ni (HAS), Cng Ty C Phn Pht Trin Nh B Ra Vng Tu (HDC), Cng Ty C Ph n Xut Nh p Khu Khnh Hi (KHA), Cng Ty C Phn Gch Ngi Nh Hip (NHC), Cng Ty C Phn Bng n Phch Nc R ng ng (RAL) , duy tr mc c tc trong khong t 10% n 20% lin tc t nm 200 5 n nm 2009 v ang c xu hng tip tc s dng mc chi tr ny trong nm 2010. Hnh 2.4: T trng s lng cc doanh nghi p nim yt phn lo i theo cc nhm mc c tc khc nhau qua cc nm:
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http://stockbiz.vn (Xem ph l c hnh 2.4). Mt xu h ng c n c ch l t nm 2008 n nm 2009 s lng cc doanh nghip c m c chi tr c tc trong nhm t 15% - 20%, v cc m c c tc ln hn
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20% c xu h ng ch ng li, v cc doanh nghi p ang gia tng p d ng m c chi tr c tc t 0% n 5% mnh gi, trong nhm ny cc doanh nghi p khng chi tr c tc tng ln nhanh chng. C th t trng nhm cc doanh nghip c mc c tc t 0% 5% t nm 2007 l 11% tng ln 18% trong n m 2008 v 19% trong n m 2009. Trong khi, t trng nhm cc doanh nghip c cc mc chi tr c tc t 10% - 15% gim t 60% trong n m 2007 xu ng cn 49% trong nm 2009. Khi nh gi mc chi tr c tc mi c phn b ng s tin chi tr thc cho m i c phn trong mt nm, chng ta thy r ng m c c tc mi c phn t ng u t nm 2001 n nm 2006. Hnh 2.5: M c c tc m i c phn (DPS) trung bnh ca th tr ng t nm 2001 n nm 2009 (n v ng):
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http://stockbiz.vn (Xem ph l c hnh 2.5). C th m c chi tr c tc mi c phn trung bnh c a cc doanh nghi p trn th trng tng t 600 ng mt c ph n vo nm 2001 ln n 1.389 ng nm 2006 v bt u gi m nh tr li v t 1.353 ng vo nm 2009. Giai o n u cc doanh nghip
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c mc chi tr c tc mi c phn thp l do l cn i vi mc gi th tr ng thp ca cc c phiu, v t c m c t su t c tc ph h p vi th tr ng. 2.1.1.3 T l chi tr c t c qua cc nm: T l chi tr c tc l t s phn nh cng ty dng bao nhiu phn trm t li nhun chi tr c tc. T s liu thng k c ca c tc m i c phn v thu nhp mi c phn cng k chng ta tnh ton c t l chi tr c tc. y l ch tiu o lng chnh sch c tc ca cc doanh nghi p t t hn so vi ch tiu c tc m i c ph n phn tch trn. Hnh 2.6: T l chi tr c tc trung bnh c a th trng t nm 2000 n nm 2010 :
Nm 2000 s liu c c lng, v n m 2010 s liu ch tnh cho nh ng doanh nghip hon thnh chi tr c tc cho nm 2010 tnh n 20/3/2011 . Ngu n: tng h p t http://cafef.vn, http://fpts.com.vn, http://cophieu68.com,
http://stockbiz.vn. Nhn chung, t l chi tr c t c ca cc doanh nghi p qua cc nm c s dao ng mnh c bit l t nm 2002 n nm 2005. Mc chi tr c tc ca cc doanh nghi p trn th tr ng mc thp nht vo nm 2003 vi t l chi tr trung bnh vo kho ng
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20%. Nm 2004, t l chi tr c tc tip tc c nhiu doanh nghi p duy tr mc thp kho ng 21.2%. Ngha l cc doanh nghip trong giai on ny ang c xu hng gi li phn l n li nhun. Nhng mt nm sau , t l chi tr c tc bn g n vi s gia tng mnh m trong t l chi tr c tc ln n mc cao nh t trong c giai on nghin c u. T l chi tr c tc nm 2005 mc 93.3%, chng t rng c nhiu doanh nghip trn th trng trong nm ny chi tr gn nh ton b li nhu n t ho t ng kinh doanh cho cc c ng. V cc nm sau , t l chi tr c tc gim tr l i v duy tr trong kho ng t 40% - 60%. y cng l cc t l chi tr c tc m cc doanh nghip p dng t nm 2000 n nm 2003. Nh vy, mc d cng c nh ng bin ng m nh m trong t l chi tr c tc ca cc doanh nghi p nhng bng ch ng ny h tr cho kin l cc doanh nghi p nim yt c gng duy tr chnh sch c tc c t l chi tr khng i t 40% - 60% (hnh 2.6). Hnh 2.7: S lng cc doanh nghi p phn lo i theo cc nhm t l chi tr c tc khc nhau qua cc nm:
Ngu n:
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http://stockbiz.vn (Xem ph l c hnh 2.7).
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nh gi ring theo tng nhm t l chi tr c tc, ta thy nh ng doanh nghip c t l chi tr c tc trong nm kho ng t 20% - 60% lun lun chi m s lng v t trng ln qua cc nm so vi cc doanh nghi p p d ng cc t l chi tr c tc khc, c bit l nh ng nm 2008 v 2009. Giai on t nm 2001 cho n nm 2004, do s liu thu th p c h n ch nn s liu thu thp c ch a phn nh c ht cc nhm t l chi tr c tc ch y u ca th trng. Nh ng trong giai on ny, ta c ng c th thy cc doanh nghip c t l chi tr c tc thp t 0% - 5% chim t trng cao nh t, trong ch y u l cc doanh nghip khng chi tr c tc. M c d vy, cc doanh nghip cn li nu tin hnh chi tr c tc th chi tr vi t l r t cao, ch ng hn nh Cng Ty C Phn Bibica (BBC), Cng Ty C Ph n Xu t Nh p Kh u Khnh Hi (KHA), Cng Ty C Ph n C in Lnh REE, Cng Ty C Phn Th ng M i V Xu t Nh p Khu Thin Nam (TNA),. Hnh 2.8: T trng s lng cc doanh nghip phn lo i theo cc nhm t l chi tr c tc khc nhau qua cc nm:
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Nm 2005 v nm 2008 l cc nm m rt nhi u doanh nghip c xu hng chi tr c tc nhiu hn so vi thu nh p. Cc doanh nghip ny c t l chi tr c tc cao hn rt nhi u so vi m c 100%. Do nguyn nhn ny m lm cho t l chi tr c tc trung bnh c a ton b th trng ln cao c bit l nm 2005. Trong , c nh ng cng ty nh Cng Ty C Phn Bng n in Quang (DQC), Cng Ty C Phn C Kh in L Gia (LGC), Cng Ty C Phn Nh a Tn i H ng (TPC), Cng Ty C Phn u t V Sn Xu t Vit Hn (VHG),. C th, t l chi tr c tc ca cc doanh nghip chi tr c tc nhiu hn li nhu n (t l chi tr c tc ln h n 100%) c cho bng 3.1. B ng 2.1: M chng khon ca mt s doanh nghip chi tr c tc nhiu hn li nhu n trong nm ( t l chi tr c tc ln hn 100%):
M CK DQC FPT HAI HSG LGC NKD TAC TPC VHG VKP 2009 450.5% N/A 42.4% 0.0% 41.2% 37.2% 95.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2008 606.1% 396.9% 117.6% 138.9% 66.8% 2069.0% 320.5% 0.0% 0.0% 474.4% 2007 6.0% 334.0% 33.1% N/A 121.9% 23.6% 30.2% 82.8% 45.0% 47.2% 2006 11.5% 7.4% N/A N/A 120.3% 22.5% 49.9% 501.3% 442.5% N/A 2005 122.7% N/A N/A N/A 499.2% 27.0% 56.8% 710.2% 3750.0% N/A
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http://stockbiz.vn. Nh ng doanh nghip ny do duy tr chi tr c tc mi c phn n nh qua cc nm nn chi tr c tc nhiu hn hn rt nhiu so vi thu nh p m i c ph n. Dng tin chi tr c tc cho cc c ng phn l n ly t li nhun c a cc nm trc . c bit, nhiu doanh nghip c li nhun m m vn thc hin chi tr c tc cho k kinh
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doanh . Nhng trng hp ny thng ri vo nm 2008 v nm 2009, khi m cu c kh ng ho ng ton c u ang tc ng xu ln tnh hnh kinh doanh c a cc doanh nghip. V m t vi doanh nghip c li nhu n m do ho t ng u t ti ch nh, u t bt sn b l n ng trong cc n m, m c d li nhu n t ho t ng sn xut kinh doanh chnh c a doanh nghip vn n nh. C th, m t vi doanh nghip c li nhu n m nh ng vn chi tr c tc l Cng Ty C Phn H p Tc Lao ng Vi Nc Ngoi (ILC), Cng Ty C Phn Nam Vit (ANV), Cng Ty C Phn FPT (FPT), Cng Ty C Ph n H u Lin Chu (HLA), Cng Ty C Phn Kinh (KDC), Cng Ty C Ph n Nhit i n Ph L i (PPC). B ng 2.2: M chng khon ca mt s doanh nghip c li nhu n m nh ng trong nm vn chi tr c tc:
DPS M CK ILC ANV FPT HLA KDC PPC 2009 1,200 500 2500 800 2400 1500 2008 2,200 1800 2600 700 1800 300 2007 2,200 1800 3600 N/A 1800 1500 M CK ILC ANV FPT HLA KDC PPC 2009 - 785 - 1,947 - 7,481 3,475 6,120 2,743 EPS 2008 2,938 1,488 655 - 1,050 - 1,080 - 654 2007 15,080 5,953 1,078 N/A 6,072 2,528
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http://stockbiz.vn 2.1.1.4 T su t c t c qua cc nm: T s liu th ng k mc c tc mi c phn v gi c a c phn vo cui nm, chng ta c th tnh ton c t sut c tc mi c phn. y c xem l t s phn nh t sut sinh li t c tc ca nh u t khi mua c phiu vo cu i k. Nhn vo th chng ta c th thy r rng r ng xu hng c a t sut c tc c a th trng ch ng khon c chia lm hai giai on:
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Giai on t nm 2001 n nm 2006 : T sut c tc tng lin tc v u n t 2,19% vo nm 2001 n 5,83 % vo nm 2006. Ngha l c mi 10.000 ng u t vo m t c phiu trn th trng vo cui nm th trung bnh nh u t s nhn c 219 ng t c tc trong nm 2001, v mc ny s tng ln n 583 ng vo nm 2006. Nh vy, trung bnh mi nm , t su t c tc tng khong 21,26%. Nh ng l do khi n t sut c tc trong giai on ny n nh l gi c phiu trn th trng tng trng n nh v mc c tc mi c phn cng tng trng n nh. Gia i on sau nm 2006: Ngc li so vi giai on trc, t sut c tc trong giai on ny th hin mt s bin ng th t th ng. T 5,83 % vo nm 2006, t sut c tc gim xung b t thng vo nm 2007 v t mc 2,57%. V mt nm sau , nm 2008, t sut c tc tng ln rt cao v t mc 9,46%, cao nht trong c giai on t nm 2001 n nm 2009. V t su t c tc gim tr li vo nm 2009 v t mc 5,16% x p x vi nm 2006 . Hnh 2.9: T sut c tc trung bnh c a th tr ng t nm 2001 n nm 2009:
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Nhn vo th th ng k m c c tc mi c phn tng ng trong giai on ny (hnh 2.5), chng ta th y rng c tc m i c ph n dng nh khng bin ng. Vy, nh ng bin ng trong t sut c tc trn th trng ch c chn do bin ng bt th ng trong gi c phi u ca cc doanh nghi p. Th t vy, th trng ch ng khon Vit Nam nh ng nm 2007, 2008 v nm 2009 phn nh nh ng sc thi khc nhau. Th trng t mc tng trng nng vo nm 2007, gi c phiu giai on ny tng cao bt thng lm cho t sut c tc nm 200 7 gim xung rt th p. Ngc li, nm 2008 th trng st gim mnh m, gi c phiu vo cui nm 2008 gim xung rt th p lm cho t sut c tc li tng ln rt cao. Mc t sut c tc dng nh quay tr li mc bnh th ng ging nh nm 2006 khi m th tr ng dn i vo n nh vo cui nm 2009 v u nm 2010 . Hnh 2.10 : S l ng cc doanh nghi p phn loi theo cc nhm t sut c tc khc nhau qua cc nm:
Ngu n:
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http://stockbiz.vn (Xem ph l c hnh 2.10). By gi chng ta nh gi t sut c tc c a cc doanh nghi p nim yt theo by nhm t sut c tc l 0% - 2%, 2% - 4%, , 8% - 10%, v l n h n ho c b ng 10%. C
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th ni rng t nm 2001 n nm 2005, t sut c tc ca cc doanh nghi p l mc thp, th ng xoay quanh m c 0% - 2%. T nm 2006 n nm 2007, nhiu doanh nghip vn c t sut c tc t nm 0% - 2%, ngoi ra t trng cc doanh nghi p c t sut c tc t 2% - 4% gia tng nhanh trong hai n m ny. Nm 2008, s lng cc doanh nghi p c t sut c tc trn 12% gia tng t bin, lm gia tng t tr ng cc doanh nghi p trong nhm t su t c tc trn 12% l n n 33,23%, trong khi nhm cc doanh nghip ny ch chim 0,435% trong nm 2007. Trong , nh ng doanh nghip c t su t c tc cao trong n m 2008 nh Cng Ty C Phn Xu t Nhp Kh u Thu Sn B n Tre - ABT (24,24%), Cng Ty C Phn Dch V T Hng Xanh - HAX (22,86%), Cng Ty C Phn B Hin Viglacera BHV (25,99%), Cng Ty C Phn i n Nh Vi n Thng - LTC (25%) ,. Hnh 2.11: T trng s lng cc doanh nghip phn loi theo cc nhm t su t c tc khc nhau qua cc nm:
Ngu n:
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http://stockbiz.vn (Xem ph l c hnh 2.11). ng thi trong nm, t trng cc doanh nghi p c t sut c tc nh hn 12% l khng ng k v phn u vo cc nhm t su t c tc khc nhau. y l nguyn
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nhn lm gia tng mnh m t su t c tc trung bnh c a ton b th tr ng. V nm 2009, t sut c tc c tc ca cc doanh nghi p vn phn b u t 0% n 10%. Cc doanh nghip c t sut c tc ln hn 12% gim h n so vi nm 2008 v cc nm khc. Trong nm ny, gi c phiu c a cc doanh nghi p ang phc hi, hn n a m t vi doanh nghi p b t u c li l n t ho t ng kinh doanh nn thc hin chi tr c tc cao hn. 2.1.2 Phn tch theo ngnh: Danh sch phn ngnh c ly t d liu ca Cng Ty C Ph n Chng Khon Thnh Ph H Ch Minh, v c trnh by trong ph lc phn ngnh. Trong danh sch 453 doanh nghip nghin c u, chng ti sp xp thnh chn ngnh chnh l cng ngh thng tin, cng nghi p, d u kh, dch v tin ch, dch v tiu dng, hng tiu dng, nguyn vt liu, ti chnh, y t . Do trc nm 2005, cc doanh nghip nim yt trn th trng ch a nhiu, nn nhiu ngnh cn ch a hnh thnh cho cc n m ny. Do vy, chnh sch c tc theo ngnh c trnh by trong cc th v cc phn di y c phn tch t nm 2005 n n m 2009. S liu chi tit v chnh sch c tc trc nm 2005 ca cc ngnh c trnh by trong ph l c. Cc s liu ny ch yu c ly theo phng php trung bnh cng. 2.1.2.1 M c c t c mi c ph n ca cc ngnh: Khi xem xt c tc m t c phn trong nm c a cc doanh nghi p trn th trng ch ng khon Vit Nam, chng ta th y rng mc c tc mi c phn trung bnh c a cc ngnh qua cc nm l khng chnh lch nhau nhiu. Trong , ngnh y t c mc chi tr c tc m i c phn lin tc cao qua cc nm. Cng vi ngnh y t, ngnh dch v tin ch l ngnh c mc c tc mi c phn cng b qua cc nm l tng i cao v n nh qua cc nm. N guyn nhn l do y l hai ngnh dch v cng c ng, t mang tnh chu k, tc tng tr ng ca ngnh l khng cao nn cc doanh nghi p trong ngnh duy tr mc c tc mi c phn u n v cao qua cc nm.
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Do kinh t suy gi m nn ho t ng kinh doanh c a h u ht cc doanh nghi p u gp kh kh n trong nm 2008 v c bit l nm 2009. V vy, tri ngc vi nm 2007, cc ngnh u cng b mc c tc m i c phn cao, m hai nm sau cc ngnh u ct gim mc c tc m i c phn. Hnh 2.12: Mc c tc m i c phn c a cc ngnh t nm 2005 n nm 2009:
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http://stockbiz.vn (Xem ph l c hnh 2.12). Trong , ngnh cng ngh thng tin l ngnh m cc doanh nghi p c xu h ng ct gim c tc mi c ph n r rt nh t, mc c tc m i c ph n t 1.571 ng c tc xu ng cn 760 ng nm 2009 (gim hn 51.6%). Nhng tri ngc vi xu h ng c a ton th trng, hai ngnh dch v cng c ng l ngnh y t v ngnh dch v tin ch vn duy tr mc tng trong c tc mi c ph n. Nm 2009, cc ngnh u duy tr mc c tc trung bnh t 1.000 ng n 1.500 ng. Ring ngnh cng ngh thng tin l ngnh c mc c tc mi c phn thp nh t, trung bnh cc doanh nghi p ca ngnh ny chi tr 760 ng trn m t c phi u, trong khi , ngnh y t c mc c tc cao nh t 2.263 ng trn mt c phiu trong nm 2009 (hnh 2.13).
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Hnh 2.13: Mc c tc m i c phn c a cc ngnh trong nm 2009 :
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http://stockbiz.vn. 2.1.2.2 T l chi tr c t c c a cc ngnh: Phn lo i t l chi tr c tc theo ngnh, chng ta th y rng t l chi tr c tc trung bnh mi ngnh l khc nhau v lin t c bin i theo thi gian. Trong , hai ngnh c tc bin ng mnh trong t l chi tr c tc l ngnh cng ngh thng tin v ngnh cng nghi p. T l chi tr c tc ca ngnh cng ngh thng tin t mc cao nht l 96,10% vo nm 2007 v thp nh t l 26.4% ch hai nm sau . Cn t l chi tr c tc trung bnh c a ngnh cng nghi p t m c cao nht l 166.24% vo nm 2005 v thp nh t l 40.26% vo nm 2007. V y l hai ngnh c tnh chu k cao trong n n kinh t nn li nhu n t ho t ng kinh doanh thng xuyn bin ng. Ngnh cng ngh thng tin nh phn tch trn c mc c tc m i c ph n chi tr qua cc nm cng bin ng m nh, v vy ta c th kh ng nh rng cc doanh nghi p trong ngnh ang u tin gi l i li nhu n ti u t . Chnh sch ny l hon ton ph h p vi c th c a ngnh cng ngh thng tin, mt ngnh cn non tr v c t c
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tng trng rt cao. Ngc li, ngnh cng nghi p li c xu h ng cc doanh nghip trong ngnh p dng chnh sch c tc tin mt n nh. V t l chi tr c tc m i c phn qua cc nm c a ngnh l n nh, lm cho t l chi tr c tc bin ng m nh. Ngnh cng nghi p Vit Nam cn nhiu c hi pht trin, nhng cc doanh nghip trong ngnh l cc doanh nghi p c quy m l n, ngnh c tnh ch t c nh tranh m nh m, v cc doanh nghip cng ang dn dn i vo n nh. Nn ngnh c chnh sch c tc chi tr c tc tin m t mi c ph n vi m c c tc n nh hn. Hnh 2.14: T l chi tr c tc ca cc ngnh t nm 2005 n nm 2009:
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http://stockbiz.vn. (Xem ph lc hnh 2.14) C m t iu c bit l hai ngnh dch v cng c ng l ngnh dch v tin ch v ngnh y t khng nh ng c mc c tc mi c phn (DPS) l tng i n nh m t l chi tr c tc cng n nh theo th i gian. Nhn chung theo thi gian, ngo i tr hai ngnh cng nghi p v cng ngh thng tin th cc ngnh khc trn th trng u c c gn duy tr t l chi tr c tc trong kho ng t 20% n 60%, tng i ng nh t vi t l chi tr c tc trung bnh c a ton b th tr ng.
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Hnh 2.15: T l chi tr c tc ca cc ngnh trong nm 2009:
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tng
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http://stockbiz.vn. Ring nm 2009, nh ng ngnh c t l chi tr c tc thp nh t l ngnh d u kh (23.71%) v ngnh cng ngh thng tin (26.4%). Ngnh cng nghi p l ngnh c t l chi tr c tc cao nht (67.32%). Nhn chung, trong nm 2009, mt mt do iu kin cho ho t ng kinh doanh vn cn nhiu kh khn nn li nhu n nhiu doanh nghip st gi m, mt mt cc doanh nghi p kh tip c n th tr ng v n c ph n mi nn cc doanh nghip c xu h ng gi li li nhun ti tr cho cc c hi u t cho cc nm tip theo. 2.1.2.3 T su t c t c c a cc ngnh: Nhn chung, t sut c tc m i ngnh t nm 2001 n nm 2005 l chnh lch nhau nhi u v bin ng theo nhng hng khc nhau (ph lc hnh 3.16). Nhng t nm 2006 n nm 2009, t sut c tc ca cc ngnh li c xu h ng hi t vi nhau v bin ng cng mt xu h ng vi t su t c tc chung c a ton th tr ng. Nh ng ngnh lin tc duy tr t su t c tc cao nh ngnh dch v tiu dng v dch v tin ch. Ngc li, mt vi ngnh cng c xu h ng duy tr t sut c tc th p nh
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ngnh ti chnh, d u kh v y t. Ngnh ti chnh c t sut c tc qua cc nm u thp l do gi c phiu c a ngnh ny mc cao so vi mt b ng chung c a ton th trng. Hnh 2.16: T sut c tc c a cc ngnh t nm 2005 n nm 2009:
Ngu n:
tng
h p
http://stockbiz.vn (Xem ph l c hnh 2.16). Ring nm 2009, ngnh cng ngh thng tin l ngnh c t sut c tc thp nh t do c tc m i c phn chi tr ca cc doanh nghi p trong ngnh gim th p trong nm ny. Ngnh ti chnh, du kh v y t cng c t sut c tc th p trong nm ny, hai ngnh dch v tiu dng v dch v tin ch tip tc c t sut c tc cao trong nm 2009. c bit, ngnh dch v tiu dng c mc t sut c tc l 8,09% cao nh t so vi cc ngnh cn li. Nh ng ngnh c tnh chu k cao nh ngnh dch v tiu dng, th do tc ng c a suy gim kinh t nn gi tr c phiu trn th trng ca cc doanh nghip trong ngnh cng st gi m t n g i mnh so vi cc ngnh khc. Cui cng, tc ng ny lm cho t sut ca ngnh c ng t ng i cao, m c d mc c tc mi c ph n trong nm 2009 c a ngnh dch v tiu dng l xp x vi cc ngnh cn li.
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Hnh 2.17: T sut c tc c a cc ngnh trong nm 2009:
Ngu n:
tng
h p
http://stockbiz.vn. 2.2 Tc ng c a chnh sch c tc ln gi tr th trng c a doanh nghi p: 2.2.1 V mt nh tnh: D a vo cc tranh lun ca cc trng phi v chnh sch c tc v gi tr doanh nghip th v mt nh tnh, chng ta hon ton c th kh ng nh r ng trn th trng chng khon Vit Nam, chnh sch c tc c tc ng n gi tr doanh nghip. V th trng ch ng khon Vit Nam l khng hon ho c th p ng y cc gi nh c a tr ng phi trung dung m kt lun rng chnh sch c tc l khng nh h ng n gi tr doanh nghip. Trong , cc chi ph i di n, chi ph giao dch, chi ph pht hnh , u l nh ng chi ph l n cho cc c ng v cc doanh nghip trn th trng. V, thu thu nh p c nhn cng c a vo p dng vo n m 2010, vi nhng chnh lch ln trong thu sut n h trn c tc tin mt (5%) v li v n ca nh u t (20% trn nm). Vi nh ng chi ph , chc h n nh cc c ng s phi bn tm cng ty chi tr c tc cho mnh nh th no. V cc nh u t s ph n nh s hi
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lng hay khng hi lng v chnh sch c tc ca doanh nghip bng cch nm gi hay bn n i, c ng nh thay i quan im nh gi c a h v cng ty, t lm bin ng gi c phiu ca cng ty trn th trng. Nh vy, chnh sch c tc r rng l c tc ng n gi tr doanh nghip. M t iu c bit so vi cc th trng ch ng khon pht trin trn th gii, th trng chng khon Vit Nam c tm l by n ca cc nh u t rt cao. Nguyn nhn l th trng ch ng khon Vit Nam tn ti s bt cn x ng thng tin ln gi a nh u t v doanh nghip2 . Do vy, cc nh u t xem trng chnh sch c tc nh l mt cng c cung c p thng tin cho h v doanh nghip. B i vy, chng ti c ng a ra kin rng, chnh sch c tc tc ng nhi u n s bin ng c a gi tr c phiu trn th trng trong thi gian qua l do tc ng pht tn hiu ca chnh sch c tc l rt cao. Chng ta c ng rng, vo nh ng thi gian trc ho c sau thi im mt doanh nghip cng b thng tin chi tr c tc trong k , th gi c phiu c a cng ty thng bin ng m nh h n cc thi im khc, nh ng bin ng ny l do hin t ng r r thng tin c cc nh u c, lm gi thao tng. Nh vy, nh gi chnh sch c tc c tc ng n gi tr doanh nghip thng qua tc ng c a chnh sch c tc ln gi tr th trng vo cc im ny s khng chnh xc. H n n a, nh ng thay i gi tr th trng ca doanh nghip trong ng n hn khng th phn nh c nh ng thay i trong gi tr thc c a doanh nghip. V vy, trong bi nghin c u ny, chng ti s dng nh ng thay i trong di hn ca gi c phiu trn th trng n h gi s thay i trong gi tr doanh nghi p c th l cc thay i trong gi c phi u qua cc nm. Tuy r ng, vn cn nhiu hn ch trong vic nh gi gi tr doanh nghip c a ch tiu ny, nh ng cc thay i trong di hn ca gi c phiu s phn nh t t h n nh ng thay i trong ngn hn.
TS. Trn Th Hi L, Hnh vi by n trn th trng chng khon Vit Nam, nguyn nhn v mt s gii php, Tp ch Ti chnh v pht trin, s 5, 6/2010.
2
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2.2.2 V mt nh lng: M hnh th nht: Khi kim tra mi quan h gi a chnh sch c tc v gi c phiu, chng ta c n xem xt t hai quan im l quan im ca ban qu n tr v ca cc c ng. Ban quan tr i hi ph i duy tr li nhu n p ng cc nhu c u c a cng ty trong di h n nh nhu cu u t v nhu cu thanh kho n, nn h th ng t s tp trung vo vi c gi li li nhu n hn l vic chia c tc. Mt khc, cc c ng li thng tp trung vo mc thu nhp c a h v nhng tc ng c a cc nhn t ln m c thu nh p ny. V vy, cc c ng c xu hng u t vo cc cng ty c chnh sch c tc ph h p vi s thch ca mnh. S khc bit gia u tin ca ban qu n tr v cc c ng v cc kch bn khc nhau ca chnh sch c tc s lm nh hng n gi tr th tr ng c a cng ty. Gi s mt cng ty in hnh c mt tm nhn y khi ng trn c hai quan im trn v cc kch bn lin quan n chnh sch c tc th phi xem xt hai yu t l tng c tc chi tr v li nhu n gi li: U = f (TD, TR) M i kch bn c hin th s cho bit cc chc nng u tin ca chnh sch c tc vi hai y u t l TD v TR tng ng l tng c tc chi tr v li nhu n gi li rng sau thu. V, m hnh di y biu di n cho gi thuyt cho rng chnh sch c tc c nh hng n gi c phi u ho c gi tr th trng ca cng ty. Hai yu t trn c th c biu din nh l cc y u t ti u ha gi tr th tr ng ca cng ty: Gi tr th tr ng c a doanh nghip = f(Li nhun rng, C t c, Thu nhp gi li) Gi tr th tr ng c a cng ty y c th hin trn c s phn tch li nhu n k ton, li nhu n rng c bt ngu n t vic u t hi n ti c a cng ty. Khi li nhun rng t c cao hn , th s lm cho gi c phiu cao hn. Ngoi ra, gi tr th trng ca cng ty cng ph thu c vo c tc chi tr cho cc c ng (i din cho chnh sch c tc) v li nhu n gi li (i din cho cc chnh sch ti tr v chnh sch u t mang v nh ng t ng tr ng li nhu n trong tng lai ca doanh nghip).
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Nh ng thay i trong gi tr th trng c a cng ty, c theo sau bi cc u tin c a cc c ng v c tc ho c li nhu n gi li. Nu a s cc c ng ca m t cng ty thch c tc, nhng chnh sc h ca cng ty thay i c li cho li nhu n gi l i, th th trng c th k vng gi tr th tr ng c a cng ty gi m. Mt khc, nu a s cc c ng ca cng m t cng ty k vng cao hn li nhun li v chnh sch c tc ca cng ty thay i theo hng gi li nhiu li nhu n, th gi tr th trng c kh nng i ln. V vy, gi tr th tr ng c a cng ty c th c th hin nh sau: Vt = f (TDt , Y t , TRt) Trong : Vt = Gi tr th trng ca cng ty, Yt = Li nhu n rng c a cng ty, TDt = Tng c t c chi tr , TRt = Tng li nhu n gi li ti u t.
Sau , chng ta chia hai v m hnh cho V0 (S lng c phn c a cng ty):
Hay: Vi:
Pt = f (DIVt , EPSt , Rt) Dt = TDt/V0: C t c trn mi c phiu, phiu.
Pt = Vt/V0: Gi c phiu c a cng ty,
EPS t = Yt/V0: Thu nh p trn mi c phiu, Rt = TR t/V0: L i nhu n gi l i trn mi c Ngha l gi c phiu (P t ) ph thu c vo c tc chi tr trn mi c phn (Dt ), thu nhp trn m i c phn (Yt ), v li nhun gi li trn m t c ph n gi (Rt ). gi m a cng tuy n ca cc bin gii thch: C tc, li nhu n v thu nhp g li, nn chng ti thay bi n li nhu n gi li trn m i c phn (Rt ) n v ng bng bi n t l li nhun gi l i (rt ) n v phn trm . Vy m hnh c n kim nh l: Pit = + 1 * DIVit + 2 * EPSit + 3 * rit + it (1) (Vi: i = 1N , t = 1 T)
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D liu c ly t 453 cng ty nim yt trn th trng ch ng khon Vit Nam vo cui nm 2009 (31/12/2009). Sau khi iu chnh v lo i b cc quan st khng ph h p, chng ti thu thp c 1.167 mu quan st c ngha th ng k t nm 2001 n nm 2010. V, c hng ta c c kt qu kim nh m hnh (1) nh sau (Xem chi ti t ph l c kim nh m hnh (1)): Pit = 4,751668 + 0,001498 * DIVit + 0,004140 * EPSit + 23,03369 * rit + it (R2 Standard Error: (3.649599) t - Stat: P - Value: (1.301970) (0.1932) (0.001376) (1.088970) (0.2764) = 23,1589%) (0.000354) (11.71020) (0.0000) (4.872567) (4.727219) (0.0000)
Mc ph h p ca hm hi quy l 23,1589%, ngha l nhng thay i trong ba bin gii thch trn gi i thch c 23,1589% nhng thay i trong gi tr th tr ng c a doanh nghip. Ngoi ra, b ng cch s dng nhn t phng i phng sai (VIF) (Xem ph lc cc thng k chi tit v cc kim nh lin quan c a m hnh hi qui (1)), chng ta thy r ng m hnh khng c xy ra hin tng a cng tuy n. Ta th y xc sut c a kim nh F: P[F-statistic = 116.7372 > F0.05(2 , 1.113)] = 0.0000 rt nh, nh vy ta bc b gi thuyt H0: 1=2=3=0. Do , chng ta c th kt lun rng chnh sch c tc tht s c tc ng n gi tr th trng c a doanh nghip qua cc nm. nh gi ngha c a t ng bin gii thch c a m hnh (1), chng th y rng bin EPS v r c kh nng gii thch cao nh ng bin ng ca gi c phiu trn th trng hn bin DIV. L do bin DIV t c ngha kim nh l v c tc mi c ph n th ng c nh qua cc nm v nu c thay i th mc thay i tuyt i khng cao, trong khi gi c phiu trn th trng qua cc nm c mc bin ng ln hn. iu ny cng gii thch rng cc c ng v ban qun tr doanh nghi p t ch tr ng ti mc c tc mi tuyt i trn mi c ph n, m h tp trung nhiu vo s thay i trong c tc chi tr qua cc nm. Nh vy m hnh th hai c pht trin t m hnh cch iu ha c a
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Lintner s b sung cho m hnh trn trong vi c nh gi chnh sch c tc c tc ng n gi tr ca cc doanh nghip trn th trng ch ng khon Vit Nam. M hnh th hai: M hnh cch iu ho v cch th c chi tr c tc c a Lintner, ng r ng nh ng nh qun tr cng nh nh u t thng t p trung vo nh ng thay i trong c tc hn l mc chi tr c tc tuyt i. Do , nhng thay i trong gi c phiu (P) trn th trng s chu tc ng ca s thay i trong mc chi tr c tc (D). Nh vy, ta c m hnh sau: P1 P0 = + *(D1 D0) + Hay: P = + *D + Chia hai v ph ng trnh trn cho P 0 ta c m hnh (*):
Trong ta c th t cc bin s nh sau: Ph n trm thay i trong gi c phiu qua cc n m l:
Thay i trong t sut c tc (Dividend Yield (DY)):
Thay i trong t sut c tc dng ph n nh chnh sch c tc ca doanh nghip qua cc nm. Th t ra, trong ch tiu ny, thay i trong t sut c tc l do thay i trong mc c tc chi tr mi c ph n, v cng th c tnh t sut c tc ly cng m t mc gi k 0 lm m u s. Nh vy, ta c th vit l i m hnh (*) trn nh sau: % P = a + b*DY + u (2) Vi, a v b l cc h s h i qui c a m hnh, trong b < 0 th m hnh mi c ngh a kim nh, v v b n cht nu doanh nghip gia tng chi tr c tc th phi nh i
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trong vic gi li li nhu n to ra cc c h i tng tr ng trong t ng lai lm t ng gi c phi u trn th trng. ngha c a m hnh l phn trm thay i trong gi c phiu (% ) s chu tc ng ca nhng thay i trong t sut c tc ( DY).
D liu c ly t 453 cng ty nim yt trn th trng ch ng khon Vit Nam vo cui nm 2009 (31/12/2009). Sau khi iu chnh v lo i b cc quan st khng ph h p, chng ti thu th p c 780 m u quan st c ngha thng k t n m 2001 n nm 2010. V, chng ta c c kt qu kim nh ca m hnh (2) nh sau (Xem chi tit ph lc kim nh m hnh (2)): % P = 0,3942 Standard Error: t - Stat: P - Value: 9,4648 * DY (0,505015978) (-18,7415987660) (0,000000) + u (R2 = 31,10%)
(0,048697686) (8,094759569) (0,000000)
Mc ph hp c a hm hi qui l R2 l 31.10% l t ng i cao, ngha l nh ng thay i trong t sut c tc gii thch c 31.10% nh ng thay i trong gi c phi u. Vi h s tin c y 95%, chng ta bc b cc gi thuyt H0: H s hi qui ca bin DY l b >= 0, (v kho ng tin c y ca b l (-10,456162 ; -8,473451)). Nh vy, nh ng thay i trong t su t c tc th c s c tc ng ti nh ng thay i trong gi c phiu qua cc nm c a doanh nghip. Hay ni cch khc, trn th tr ng ch ng khon Vit Nam, chnh sch c tc c nh h ng n gi tr doanh nghi p. Cc c lng im ca bin %P cho thy rng, n u doanh nghip gia tng t sut c tc 1%, th gi c phiu trn th trng s tng kho ng 30%. Nh ng n u doanh nghip gia tng t sut c tc ln trn 4,165% th gi c phiu trn th trng li gi m. iu ny c ngh a l cc doanh nghip c chnh sch c tc cng bi n ng th gi c phiu trn th trng cng bi n ng, vo th i im th trng gi ln, th gi c phiu cc doanh nghip ny trn th trng tng nhanh, nh ng khi th trng i vo suy thoi th cc gi c phiu cc doanh nghip ny li st gi m m nh hn. Du tr ca h s ca bin DY l ph h p vi ngh a nh tnh c a m hnh nh trnh by trn. Lp
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lun ny, khng c ngh a l nu doanh nghip cng gi m t sut c tc th gi c phiu trn th trng cng t ng cao. Phn phi tp trung c a bin % P ch ra rng, doanh nghip cng gi m t su t c tc th gi c phiu c ng khng t ng nhiu, m l i c xu h ng gim nh. Kt lu n: Tm li, vi nh ng lp lu n nh tnh v nh lng trn, chng ta c th kt lun rng c m t mi quan h khng nh gi a chnh sch c tc v gi tr ca cc doanh nghip trn th trng ch ng khon Vit Nam hin nay. Chnh sch c tc l mt trong nhng nhn t ln tc ng n gi tr doanh nghi p trong ngn h n, v gi tr doanh nghip trong di hn, mc d cch thc tc ng i vi m i doanh nghip v trong m i thi k l khc nhau. Trong cc ch tiu lin quan n chnh sch c tc th cc thay i trong c tc mi c ph n, t l chi tr c tc v t su t c tc l c nh hng r rng nh t n gi tr th trng c a doanh nghip qua cc nm. 2.3 nh gi chnh sch c tc c a cc doanh nghi p trong th i gian qua: 2.3.1 Mt tch c c: Th nh t, chnh sch c t c cao gip nhi u doanh nghip hot ng hiu qu h n v gi m ri ro cho nh u t. T nm 2000 n nm 2004, th trng ch ng khon ch a c nh ng bc pht trin vng chc, cc nh u t gp rt nhiu r i ro khi u t vo cc doanh nghi p trn th tr ng. Khi , vic tr c tc cao s lm gi m ri ro cho cc c ng c a cng ty v to s tin t ng ca cc c ng vo tnh hnh ti chnh c ng nh ho t ng kinh doanh c a cng ty. Sau , t nm 2008 n nm 2009, do cu c kh ng ho ng kinh t ton c u, v s suy gim c a th tr ng ch ng khon Vit Nam, nn nhiu doanh nghip cng thc hin chi tr c tc cao hn nhiu so vi nh ng nm trc kh ng ho ng, ng thi t ng s ln chi tr c tc trong n m ln n hai ho c ba l n. Nh ng thi gian ny, cc cng ty nim yt c kt qu ho t ng kinh doanh tt v c tnh hnh ti chnh lnh m nh cng b c tc cao gip h tr tnh thanh kho n cho c phiu ca mnh. Cc cng ty ny c xu h ng va tin hnh mua li c phn v
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v a thc hin chi tr c tc bng tin m t. C l y l ph ng php phn ph i t t nh t cho cc nh u t so vi chi tr c tc bng c phiu hay gi l i li nhu n. Chnh sch c tc cao tc ng n tm l ca cc c ng v gi chn cc c ng trung thnh ca cng ty, nh t l cc c ng ln, ng thi thu ht cc nh u t khc trn th trng. Vo nh ng thi im kh khn, r rng ti n m t l rt qu gi, vic tr c tc cao s to thun li cho cc c ng c thm nhiu c hi chuy n h ng u t vo cc knh khc tt hn, t , gp phn gi m thiu ri ro c a h . M t khc, chnh sch c tc tin m t cao cng vi vic mua l i c phn gp ph n t ng tnh thanh kho n ca c phi u trn th tr ng, v to ra cc b c chuyn khi th trng an g phc hi. M t khi chnh sch c tc cao gp phn n nh thnh phn c ng trong cng ty, th t cc c ng trong cng ty v ban iu hnh s c s ng thu n cao trong vic quyt nh cc chnh sch hot ng kinh doanh cho cng ty trong cc k sau. M t khc, c tin tr c tc cao th ban qun l doanh nghip phi nng cao hiu qu s dng vn t c , gim nhng khon chi ph khng hp l, thanh l nhng ti sn km hiu qu , ti cu trc li doanh nghip. ng thi, vic ph i huy ng v n t bn ngoi b p lng v n chi tr, s to p lc lm cho ban qu n tr cng ph i nng cao nng lc iu hnh c th s dng tt cc ngu n v n qu gi, nh t trong nh ng thi k kinh t kh khn. Th hai, chi tr c tc trnh thu cho cc c ng. Php lu t v thu thu nh p trong lnh vc chng khon chnh thc quy nh vic thu thu thu nh p c nhn t li tc u t v n v li tc t ho t ng chuyn nh ng c phn trong Lut Thu Thu Nhp C Nhn nm 2007, c hiu l c thi hnh t ngy 1/1/2009 (sau c hon l i). Do vy nm 2008, cc cng ty nim yt o t tm ng, chia c tc th ng t cc kho n li nhu n gi l i cc nm trc, do lo ng i kho n thu nhp ny s chu thu thu nh p c nhn 5% trong nm 2009. Cu i cng, sau khi c hon thu thu nhp c nhn n ht nm 2009, th t ngy 01/01/2010, cc nh u t ch ng khon ph i tr m c thu 5% cho c tc v 20% cho li v n ho c 0.1% cho mi ln chuy n nh ng vn. Chnh v
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vy nhiu doanh nghip trong nm 2009 tin hnh chi tr c tc tin mt cao cho cc nh u t, bi v nu thc hin chi tr c tc sau thi gian ny th cc kho n thu m nh u t phi n p l khng nh. ng thi ny c a cc doanh nghi p ngoi mc ch tng vn iu l nhm tng nng lc ti chnh, cn gip nh u t n mt phn thu. Nh vy, c th ni, nu ch xem xt trn gc nh u t v thu th chi tr c tc trong tr ng h p ny l ban iu hnh cc doanh nghi p h ng ti m c tiu ti a ha gi tr ti sn cho cc c ng, tuy rng vic tin hnh chi tr c tc cao khng phi ch do m t nguyn nhn l trnh thu thu nhp c nhn. 2.3.2 Mt hn ch: Th nh t, dng chnh sch c t c nh l mt cng c pht tn hi u h n l ti a ha ti sn ca c ng . Thu nhp ca cc c ng khi u t vo m t doanh nghip l c tc v li v n. C tc l ngu n thu nhp thng xuyn t li nhun kinh doanh trong k, trong khi li vn c th c hi n thng qua tng tr ng li nhu n trong t ng lai, iu ny c c t vic ti u t hiu qu ngu n li nhu n gi li. Thng qua vic phn phi gia li nhu n gi li v c tc chi tr, doanh nghip cng phn nh lun thu nh p ca c ng ch yu c nh n di hnh thc no. C tc v li v n c s nh i, l hnh x thuc v bn ch t c a chnh sch c tc. Trong khi trn th trng chng khon Vit Nam thi gian qua, b n ch t ny c a chnh sch c tc b o ngc l i. Cc doanh nghip chi tr c tc cao lm tng gi chng khon trong ngn hn trn th trng, ngha l cc ch ng khon c c tc cao c cc nh u t tm kim h ng li v n vt tri trong nh ng thi gian . Bng ch ng l cc ch ng khon c c tc cao th gi c trn th trng bin ng rt mnh qua cc thi k trc v sau c tc, v cc ch ng khon ny th ng c cc nh u t giao dch nhi u. Nhiu doanh nghip trn th trng chng khon thc hin chi tr c tc cao p ng tm l c a nh u t nh gi hot ng kinh doanh c a doanh nghip b ng mc c tc chi tr trong k . Mc c tc cao c nhiu nh u t ng ngha vi mc li nhu n cao, tnh hnh kinh doanh t t v ban qu n tr ca doanh nghi p c nng lc.
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C th ni, tuy r ng nhng nm gn y kin th c u t ca nh u t c nng cao, nh ng vn cn m t s ln nh u t cn thiu hiu bit v kin th c ti chnh ni chung v chnh sch phn ph i ca doanh nghip ni ring. Th hai, cc nh u t trn th trng ch ng khon n c ta c hnh vi by n rt cao. Li d ng hai c im ny cng vi s b t cn x ng thng tin trn th trng ch ng khon m cc doanh nghip cng b chnh sch c tc h p d n to ra cc tn hi u tt n tm l c a nh u t. Nu khng mun ni l cc doanh nghi p dng chnh sch c tc nh mt cng c nh bng hnh nh cng ty qu mc3. Nhiu cng ty xem chnh sch c tc nh l mt cng c c th truyn t thng tin n cc nh u t, t cng ty s thu ht s quan tm c a cc nh u t v lm tng gi c phiu ln; qua , to thu n li cho vic pht hnh c phn mi sau ny. c mc c tc cao, thm ch nhi u doanh nghip phi chia ht c li nhun trong n m, m khng d phng ti chnh cho cc kho n n ng n hn c ng nh gi li li nhu n cn thit ti u t. Nh vy, cc doanh nghip ny khng cn i trong vic chi tr c tc v tng trng trong tng lai. T gy thit hi cho nh ng kho n u t ca cc nh u t di hn, mc d trong ng n h n, cc nh u t tm kim cc ch ng khon c mc c tc cao s t c mc li nhun cao. ng thi khi cng ty cng b tr c tc mc cao, ri sau pht hnh c ph n mi trn th trng, s lm tng chi ph s dng v n ca doanh nghip, m t khc, n lm thit hi n li ch c a cc c ng hin h u do long gi, c bit l li ch cc c ng thiu s. Bn c nh , do sc p v thanh ton c tc bng tin mt cho c ng, nhiu doanh nghip kinh doanh km hi u qu , thua l vn thanh ton c tc cho c ng .Vic ny lm tng ri ro cho doanh nghi p, v cu i cng l gim gi tr doanh nghip.
Bi Th Ngc Anh, Xy dng chnh sch c tc cho cc cng ty c phn nim yt ti Vit Nam, Lun vn thc s kinh t, nm 2009 v Nguyn Duy Lng, Chnh sch c tc ca cc cng ty nim yt trn th trng chng khon Vit Nam, Lun vn thc s kinh t, nm 2007.
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Th hai, cha ch tr ng vic xy d ng chnh sch c t c m c tiu ph h p. Khi thit lp m t chnh sch c tc th khng c mt chnh sch c tc no ph h p cho m i cng ty. Vy m trn th trng ch ng khon Vit Nam, nhiu doanh nghi p li c li chy ua vi nhau chi tr c tc bng tin mt hay chi tr c tc bng c phn trong nhi u thi k khi m xu h ng c a gii ti chnh v nh u t ang ch n cc c phi u c c tc tin m t cao hay c tc c ph n cao. Vic thit lp mt chnh sch c tc m theo doanh nghip c th ti a ha gi tr cho cc c ng thng b b ng . i u ny th hin cc im sau: Mt l , cc doanh nghi p thit lp chnh sch c tc nhng ch a d a trn cc c s ti chnh vng ch c. Cc c s ti chnh vng chc phi l cc c hi u t, cu trc v n ti u, ri n cc nhn t nh h ng v dng tin thc c a cng ty. Ngha l phi t chnh sch c tc trong m i quan h tng quan vi chnh sch u t v chnh sach ti tr. Trong khi chi cc chnh sch c tc ca cc doanh nghi p li d a qu nhiu vo y u t th tr ng v tm l c a nh u t. Hai l , doanh nghip ch a a ra c t l chi tr c tc mc tiu nht nh m cng ty s h ng vo. T vic thiu cc c s v ng chc cho chnh sch c tc dn n vic doanh nghi p chi tr c tc vi t l phn ph i gi a c tc v li nhun gi li bin ng m nh. Cc cng ty nim yt trn th trng ch ng khon Vit Nam hin nay chia c tc c ao hn nhi u so vi cng ty nim yt trn th trng ch ng khon cc nc khc. Cc doanh nghi p ca Vit Nam ch gi li m c li nhun tch ly v m rng s n xu t vo kho ng t 40 - 60%, mc li nhun gi li nh vy lm hn ch n vic tch ly vn ti u t v ch a t ng x ng vi t c tng tr ng c a cc doanh nghip. Ba l , p d ng cc hnh th c chi tr c tc khng ph h p. Nhiu doanh nghip p dng lin t c nhiu chnh sch c tc tri ngc nhau. Ch ng hn nh trong cng m t k nhiu doanh nghip p d ng hnh thc chi tr c tc bng c phn r i sau mua l i c ph n ca mnh. Ch ng h n, nh KDC nm 2007 pht hnh c phiu thng ln 1,731,771,138,000 ng, cng trong nm ny c ng ty mua li c ph n ca mnh ti 11,118,812,000 ng v nm 2008 tip tc chi
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149,921,826,000 ng mua li c phn c a mnh. Nhiu hnh thc nh c tc c phn, c phiu th ng, chia tch c phiu c cc cng ty qu ch tr ng lm bin ng gi trn th tr ng trong ng n h n. ng l ra, nu trong nm, doanh nghip chi tr c tc tin m t thp, th vic cng b c tc c phn thm s lm t ng t l c tc bng tin mt cho c ng. Nh ng, nhi u doanh nghip li va cng b c tc tin mt cao v c tc c ph n cao. Th ba, chnh sch c tc th ng b chi ph i b i cc nhm c ng ln. Trong cc doanh nghi p trn th tr ng ch ng khon Vit Nam, nh ng c ng l n th ng tham gia vo h i ng qu n tr ca cng ty, nn chnh sch c tc b chi ph i ch y u bi cc c ng ny. Trong khi th tr ng ch ng khon nc ta l i ch a c lut l bo v quy n li c a cc c ng thiu s. Chnh sch c tc c th ni rng khng cn l ti a ho ti sn c a cc c ng n a m l t a ho ti s n ca cc c ng ln. Mu thu n gi a cc c ng ln v cc c ng nh thng xu t hin lin quan ti cc chnh sch c tc, chnh sch pht hnh c phn mi, hay chia tch c phi u, . y l m t vn thc tin trong cc doanh nghip nim yt hin nay. Chnh sch chia c tc nh th no hon ton ph thuc vo chin lc v k ho ch kinh doanh c a mi cng ty. N hng thc t cho thy rng cc c ng ln th ng thng qua hi ng qu n tr xy d ng mt chnh sch chia c tc thc hin nh ng c a h . Ch ng h n, cc c ng ln th y rng vic huy ng vn u t vo bt ng sn trong nm ti chnh tip theo s sinh ra li nhu n rt ln. Do vy h hng cng ty gim ho c ngng chi tr c tc tin m t v p d ng hnh thc chi tr c tc b ng c phi u nh m gi li m t ph n khng nh tin u t vo th trng bt ng sn. Chng ti cho r ng, y c mu thun trong vic theo u i quyn li gi a i bn, l doanh nghip v cc c ng. Mu thun ny xu t pht t s khc bit trong chnh m c tiu u t gi a cc c ng ln (vn gn lin li ch c a doanh nghip vi li ch c a chnh mnh trong di h n) v c ng nh (v n ch l nh ng c ng tm thi do h th ng hay u t ngn hn).
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K T LU N CHNG 2: Tuy r ng, chnh sch c tc c a cc ngnh th hin c nh ng c th ring ph h p vi tng ngnh. Nh ng cc doanh nghip nim yt trn th trng chng khon thc hin chi tr c tc trong thi gian qua cn mang tnh t pht, ch y theo s ng cc doanh nghi p khc. Nu nh m c tiu c a chnh sch c tc l thu ht cc nh c ng tim nng c chin lc u t lu di ph h p, th ngc li, chnh sch c tc c a cc doanh nghi p nim yt thi gian qua li chy theo s thch c a cc nh u t trong ng n h n. V tc ng cu i cng l chnh sch c tc nh h ng r t ln n gi tr doanh nghip trn th trng.
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CHNG 3: XU T CHNH SCH C T C PH HP CHO CC DOANH NGHIP NIM Y T TRN TH TR NG CHNG KHON VI T NAM Khi thit lp mt chnh sch c tc th khng th c mt chnh sch no ph hp cho mi doanh nghip. Mt cng ty khc nhau s c nhng c im ring, hot ng trong nhng lnh vc khc nhau v chu tc ng bi nhng nhn t nh h ng khc nhau. Trong iu kin kinh doanh c th, mi cng ty c nhng chin lc v quan im kinh doanh khc nhau. Cc cng ty cn cn nhc la chn mc c tc ph hp vi c im, tim nng ca mnh, v ph hp vi cc giai on khc nhau ca qu trnh t ng trng. V m c tiu ti h u ca chnh sch c tc l cng vi chnh sch u t v chnh sch ti tr lm ti a ho gi tr doanh nghip. Do vy, phn ny chng ti ch a ra nhng xut mang tnh l thuyt cc doanh nghip nim yt c th tham kho trong cng tc ti chnh ca mnh. Nhng xut ny cng bao hm nhng phn tch v nh gi mang tnh thc tin trn th trng chng khon Vit Nam, ng thi s dng kt qu hi qui m hnh (2) thit lp mc n nh trong chnh sch c tc ti u cho cc doanh nghip nim yt. 3.1 Cc nguyn t c c bn trong vi c a ra cc quyt nh chnh sch c tc ca cc doanh nghi p: 3.1.1 Vn d ng cc nguyn tc c b n ca Lintner: M hnh cch iu ho v cch th c chi tr c tc ca Lintner vo gia thp nin 1950 a ra nh ng nguyn t c c bn nh sau: Th nh t, cc doanh nghip c cc t l chi tr c tc m c tiu di h n. Vi thu nhp tng i n nh, cc doanh nghi p sung mn th ng c t l chi tr c tc cao, cc doanh nghip tng trng th ng chi tr c tc thp. Th hai, cc gim c thng t p trung nhiu vo nh ng thay i c tc hn l so vi mc chi tr c tc tuyt i. Th ba, c tc c thay i theo nhng thay i trong li nhu n n nh v ko di, cc thay i trong li nhu n mt cch t m thi s khng tc ng g n chi tr c tc.
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Th t , c c gim c ti chnh c bit lo lng v vic ph i hu b chnh sch chi tr c tc cao trc y do nhng tc ng ngc c a quyt nh ny. Trong nh ng trng h p nh th, h rt min cng a ra nh ng quyt nh v thay i chnh sch c tc. y l nhng quan im c in ca cc gim c doanh nghi p v chnh sch phn ph i c tc. Nh ng n vn cn mang tnh thi s v c gi tr cho cc doanh nghi p trn th gii ln cc doanh nghi p Vit Nam khi xem xt a ra quyt nh c tc ca mnh. M hnh c a Lintner ch ra rng, vic u tin khi quyt nh chnh sch c tc c a m t doanh nghip l ph i xc nh c t l c tc mc tiu di hn ph hp nh t vi nhng c im c a doanh nghip. y l iu kin tin quyt c mt chnh sch c tc ti u cho doanh nghi p. Sau , vo t ng nm c th doanh nghi p da vo t l chi tr m c tiu thc hin chi tr c tc tng i n nh. Ch ng hn, cng ty c n phi c m t chnh sch c tc an ton, nht qun, ngay c trong tr ng h p li nhun hot ng gim. Mt chnh sch c tc an ton khng ng ngha vi mt chnh sch c tc thp. An ton y l vic tng c tc ph i d a trn nhng thay i trong li nhu n n nh v ko di. ng thi trnh ti a vic c t gim c tc, cho d cng ty ang c mt c hi u t tuyt vi. Nh ng c ng quan tm n dng thu nhp tng lai n nh v ng tin c y t c tc s rt quan tm n s thay i chnh sch c tc t ng t ca cng ty, c bit l khi c tc b c t gi m vi l do l dng l i nhu n gi l i u t vo m t d n mi to gi tr gia tng cho cng ty trong tng lai. Trong trng hp nh th, khng b l c hi u t ny, cng ty nn ch n gii php i vay hay pht hnh c phiu mi. N u v mt l do no cng ty khng th huy ng v n t ngun ti tr bn ngoi m buc ph i ct gi m c tc, th cng ty cn ph i cung c p thng tin y v gii thch mt cch r rng cho cc nh u t bit v chng trnh u t sp ti cng nh nhu cu ti chnh c n thit ti tr cho d n .
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3.1.2 Nguyn tc la ch n chnh sch c tc ph hp: Khi quyt nh l ng tin m t s phn phi cho c ng, c ba im cn l u : (1) Mc tiu quan tr ng nh t l ti a ho gi tr cho cc c ng, (2) Dng tin c a cng ty l thuc v c ng, do ban qun tr khng nn gi li tr phi h c th ti u t kho n tin ny vi t su t sinh li cao h n so vi mc cc c ng c th t mnh kim c. (3) L thuyt trt t phn h n cho rng: Ngu n vn ni sinh (thu nh p gi li) r h n so vi vn bn ngoi (pht hnh c phiu ph thng mi), do nu c c hi u t tt doanh nghip c th s dng thu nh p gi li ti tr s t t hn so vi pht hnh c ph n mi. Nh vy, d a vo nhng im l u ny chng ta c th a ra nh ng nguyn t c c bn sau khi a ra quyt nh chnh sch phn ph i c a doanh nghip Vit Nam: Mt l, phi xem xt nn tng ca c tc l dng tin. Mt s cng ty thu v lng tin mt t hot ng kinh doanh ln song c rt t c hi u t, y th ng l nhng cng ty ang trong giai on bo ho . Nhng cng ty nh vy nn phn phi phn ln thu nhp ca mnh cho c ng, bng cch thu ht cc nhm nh u t a thch c tc cao. Nhng cng ty khc to ra t hoc khng c tin mt d tha song li c nhiu c hi u t tt. Nhng cng ty ny thng phn chia t hoc khng phn chia tin mt nhng hng thu nhp v gi c phiu tng ln, do thu ht cc nh u t a thch li vn c phn. Ni chung, dng tin l thuc v c ng, doanh nghip ch c nhim v l ti u t s tin lm ti a ho ti sn ca c ng, b t k lng tin m t d tha no cng nn c tr l i cho c ng . Hai l, khng nn tch chnh sch c tc ra kh i cc chnh sch ti chnh khc ca doanh nghip m cn ph i xem xt chnh sch c tc cng l mt phn c a chnh sch ti tr. V ngun li nhu n gi li l ngun vn quan trng trong c u trc v n, vi chi ph s dng v n th p hn so vi cc ngun v n khc. Theo l thuyt trt t phn hn th cc doanh nghip nn u tin s dng li nhun gi li ti tr ni b, v cc
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doanh nghip nn iu chnh t ng ng trong cc t l chi tr c tc mc tiu theo cc c hi u t , nh ng ng thi vn trnh cc thay i t xut trong c tc. Ba l, xem xt cc hnh thc chi tr c tc ph h p. Khi ni n phng thc chi tr c tc, xem xt v bn cht ph i l dng tin th c tr li cho cc c ng. Nh vy ch c hai ph ng th c chi tr c tc b ng tin m t ho c b ng cch mua l i c phn l th hin c iu ny. Nh ng ph ng thc chi tr khc nh c tc b ng c phn, c tc bng ti s n ch mang tnh hnh th c. Khi cc c ng mu n nh n c tin m t t chnh sch c tc ny, th h ph i bn cc c phn hay cc ti s n ny, nh ng n u cng ty c th bn cc ti s n ny v thu v tin mt vi cc chi ph giao dch th p h n th cng ty nn thc hin giao dch ny v chi tr tin mt trc tip cho c ng. 3.2 Xy d ng quy trnh ra quyt nh chnh sch c tc cho cc doanh nghi p: Tc tin khi a ra quy trnh quyt nh chnh sch c tc, doanh nghi p phi xc nh cc dng tin t ho t ng kinh doanh s i vo u trc khi dng chi tr c tc. Dng tin t ho t ng kinh doanh ca cng ty s c i theo nh ng h ng khc nhau vi nh ng th t u tin nh sau: u tin : Dng tin t ho t ng kinh doanh ca cng ty trc ht u tin tr cc kho n n n h n v li vay (nu c) cn c theo hp ng. Phn dng tin cn l i s l dng tin dnh cho ch s h u do ch s hu quyt nh phng thc s d ng. Th hai: Dng tin sau s c phn chia lm hai ph n, trong , m t ph n ti u t vo cc hot ng kinh doanh. M c gi li li nhu n ph thu c vo cc c hi u t hiu qu v kh nng huy ng cc ngun v n khc ca doanh nghip. Th ba : Phn cn l i trc ht phc v cho mc ch qu n tr s d tin mt h p l phc v vn lu ng trong doanh nghi p. Cu i cng : Dng tin s c chi tr cho c ng. Doanh nghip cn phi xc nh u tin ca cc c ng c ph ng thc chi tr bng tin mt hay b ng cch mua li c phn mt cch h p l.
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y l nh ng b c i ca dng tin chi tr c tc cho cc c ng. D a vo cc bc i ny chng ta th y r ng chnh sch c tc phi c t trong tng quan m t thit vi cc quyt nh u t , quyt nh ti tr ca doanh nghip v ng thi n cng ch u s kim sot ca c ng. D a vo , chng ti a ra quy trnh ca cc quyt nh trong chnh sch c tc. Hnh 3.1: Quy trnh th c hin quyt nh chnh sch c tc c phn tch theo nhim v ca cc b phn trong doanh nghi p:
Quy trnh ra quyt nh chnh sch c tc cho doanh nghip phi xem xt n cc yu t tc ng bao gm cc yu t bn trong v bn ngoi, cc u tin ca cc c ng. Xem xt cc nh hng ca cc yu t tc ng, cc doanh nghip cn ch trng n cc yu t bn trong l cc yu t li n quan trc tip n cc quyt nh u t v quyt nh ti tr, chng hn cc c hi u t tng trng trong tng lai, cu trc vn mc tiu, kh nng vay n, dng tin,Cc doanh nghip cng cn phi xem xt n cc yu t bn ngoi nh lm pht, xu hng ca nn kinh t, th trng vn, li sut ngn hng,. Nh ng cc nhn t bn trong phi l cc yu t quyt nh, yu t ni ti tc ng ln chnh sch c tc, cc nhn t bn ngoi nu c nh hng n chnh sch c tc cng phi thng qua s tc ng ln cc nhn t bn trong. Nh vy, doanh nghip phi ch trng cc yu t bn trong c th nh hng n chnh sch c tc ca chnh doanh nghip mnh.
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Quy trnh trn c bit nhn mnh n v th ca c ng trong qu trnh ra quyt nh c tc. V c ng l ch doanh nghip, l mc tiu hng n cui cng ca chnh sch c tc, h l nhng ngi hng li trc tip t chnh sch ny . Do vy, h bit r nht chnh sch chi tr c tc phi nh th no t c mc tiu ti a ho gi tr ti sn ca h. Nh ng Vit Nam, li ch ca c ng, c bit l cc c ng thiu s thng b b ng. T , bi nghin cu kin ngh thnh lp b phn quan h nh u t trong doanh nghip. y l b phn m cc doanh nghip ln trn th gii u ch trng pht trin, nhng ti nc ta, phn ln cc doanh nghip cn ch a bit n cng nh tm quan trng v cch thc t chc ca b phn ny. Nguyn nhn l cc doanh nghip Vit Nam thiu ch trng trong cng tc quan h vi nh u t. Nhim v ch yu ca b phn ny l thng tin v chm sc, nhng nhim v ny phi mang tnh hai chiu gia ban qun tr v nh u t. B phn quan h nh u t phi thng tin y cho cc nh u t bit v tnh hnh hot ng sn xut kinh doanh ni chung , v mc tiu ca chnh sch c tc ni ring,, ng thi thng tin ngc li cho ba n qun tr doanh nghip v cc yu cu, cc kin xut ca c ng. B phn ny gip nh u t nm r c tnh hnh ho t ng cng nh chin lc ca cng ty trong t ng lai, nh vy h c th a ra quyt nh tt hn cho chnh sch c tc ca chnh cng ty mnh. B phn ny cn phi chm sc, to mi quan h thn thit vi cc nh c ng chin lc, cng nh cc c ng mi tim nng c chnh sch u t ph hp vi doanh nghip mnh. T hai nhim v trong tm ny, b phn quan h nh u t s gp phn lm gim chi ph i din gia cc c ng v ban qun tr doanh nghip trong chnh sch c tc ni ring, ng thi to iu kin ng nht li ch ca cc c ng v doanh nghip trong chnh sch c tc ni chung. 3.3 Mt s xu t l a ch n chnh sch c tc t i u cho cc doanh nghi p: Chnh sch c t tc ni chung bao gm ba thnh t quan trng. Th nh t, l t l chi tr c tc l bao nhiu, th hai, nn th c hi n chi tr c tc d i hnh thc tr c tc tin mt hay mua li c ph n, v cui cng, vic chi tr c tc nn c th c hin vi
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mc n nh nh th no, t c l qu phn phi hng nm m t mc n nh hay thay i thng xuyn? 3.3.1 T l chi tr c tc ti u: Vi m t cng ty nh t nh, t l tr c tc ti u l m t hm s c a cc bin s: Bin s th nh t: Cc c hi u t c a cng ty. Phn tch cc cng ty trn th trng chng khon Vit Nam thng qua cc y u t vi m v v m, chng ta thy rng nn kinh t ca t nc ang mc tng tr ng nhanh, vo l mt trong nh ng nc c tc tng tr ng nhanh nht th gii. Th tr ng ti chnh ni chung v th trng chng khon ni ring cn non tr v ang tng b c hon thi n, nh ng ni chung th trng ch ng khon n c ta c mc tng trng cao, nh u t ngy cng c ki n thc v am hiu lnh vc ny. Ti cc yu t vi m, cc doanh nghi p trn th trng phn l n l nh ng doanh nghip v a v nh, c bit l sn giao dch chng khon H Ni, quy m c a cc doanh nghi p l cn nh h n nhiu so vi cc nc trong khu vc v trn th gii. Nh ng cc doanh nghi p t n d ng c cc iu kin kinh t thu n li c a t nc t c cc tc tng trng ngy cng cao. Theo chi n lc pht trin kinh t n nm 2020 , n c ta s c bn tr thnh m t nc cng nghip hin i, do vy, cc c hi tng trng dnh cho cc doanh nghi p ngy cng nhi u. Nh vy, c th ni c hi u t cho s tng trng c a cc cng ty l r t cao, t bit l ngnh cng ngh thng tin. Do , cc doanh nghip nn gi li li nhu n sn sng p ng cho cc nhu c u u t ny. Ngha l t l chi tr c tc mc thp nn c cc doanh nghi p p d ng trong thi gian ti. Bin s th hai: C cu v n m c tiu c a cng ty, tnh sn c v chi ph s dng v n bn ngoi. C u trc v n mc tiu c a cc cng ty l khc nhau tu theo c im c a cng ty v c a ngnh m cng ty ang ho t ng. Nh ng do chi ph s d ng v n t ngun vn bn ngoi c bit l ngu n v n vay trong nhiu thi k l tng i cao, c th l trong nh ng nm m chnh ph th c hin chnh sch kim ch lm pht.
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Ch ng h n nh nm 2011, chnh ph ang thc hin m c tiu kim ch lm pht mc 7%, li su t ngn hng tng ln cao, lm cho cc doanh nghi p khng th vay c vn cho ho t ng kinh doanh cng nh huy ng vn trn th trng tri phi u. Nh vy, xu h ng v cu trc v n c a cc doanh nghip Vit Nam nn thin v v n c phn thng, trong ngun v n gi l i phi mang ngha chin lc cho cc doanh nghip. Ngh a l cc doanh nghip nn u tin gi li li nhu n m c cao v chi tr c tc thp p ng yu cu c u trc v n ny. Bin s cu i cng: Quan im ca ban qu n tr v nhu c u thu nh p ca nh u t, hay cc u tin c a c ng v mc c tc cao hay thp. Cc u tin ny c a cc nh u t trn th trng ch ng khon Vit Nam l ch a r rng. Cc nh u t u c tm l thch chi tr c tc mc cao. Tuy nhin, nhm cc nh u t di hn, xu h ng l a ch n mc chi tr c tc v a ph i dnh vn cho ti u t vn cao hn nhm cc nh u t ngn hn. Nh ng c m t mu thun y, cc nh u t ngn hn l cc nh u t tin hnh giao dch nhiu h ng li v n, ngu n thu nh p ch yu c a h vn c xem l li v n, th cc c phiu c c tc cao d n n mc bin ng gi ln th ng c cc nh u t ny ch trng. H mun c phiu c mc c tc cao l t c cc mc li vn h p d n. Nhng, cng phi ni rng, xu th ny l khng t n t i mi mi khi th tr ng ch ng khon ngy cng pht tri n, nh u t ngy cng c trnh u t cao. Vy, m c c tc vi t l chi tr thp vn l m c ph h p nh t i vi cc nh u t hin nay. T ng qut cc bin s trn, chng ta c th thy rng chnh sch c tc vi t l chi tr thp ho c c th khng chi tr c tc l ph h p vi cc doanh nghip trn th trng chng khon Vit Nam, c bit l cc doanh nghip v a v nh, cc doanh nghip c tc tng tr ng nhanh. Trong , cc doanh nghi p ngnh cng ngh thng tin nn thc hin chnh sch khng chi tr c tc.
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3.3.2 Hnh th c c tc ti u: Hnh thc c tc ti u ph thuc vo u tin c a nh u t l mu n nhn thu nhp bng li v n hay bng tin m t. T nm 2007 tr v trc, ch mt s t cc nh u t ngn h n thch chi tr c tc bng tin mt, cn l i ph n ln u thch chi tr bng c phiu ho c v a b ng c phiu va b ng tin m t4 . Nh ng t nm 2008 tr i, hnh thc chi tr c tc bng c phiu khng cn c nhiu nh u t a thch do th trng b suy gim. T nhng iu ki n nh vy, cc nh nh u t Vit Nam nn ch n cho mnh cch thc u t di hn v h ng li vn t s tng trng c a cc doanh nghi p. V chnh sch thu thu nhp c nhn th t nm 2010 , Vit Nam p d ng mc thu su t 5% trn c tc v 20% trn li v n tnh cho c nm (hoc 0.1% trn mi ln giao dch). Mc thu sut nh vy ang ng h cc doanh nghi p chi tr c tc b ng tin m t. Trong ngn hn nh ng nm ti, mc thu sut ny s khng i. Nh ng v di h n th chc ch n mc thu sut thu thu nh p c nhn s tng ln khi thu nhp bnh qun u ngi c a Vit Nam tng ln. ng thi, cho th trng ti chnh Vit Nam pht trin lnh m nh th chnh sch thu thu nhp c nhn s c xu h ng tin n s khng phn bit gi a c tc tin mt v li vn. Khi , thu su t nh trn li v n v thu sut nh trn c tc tin mt l tim cn vi nhau, hay t ra c nh ng chi tit trong chnh sch thu ca Nh nc gim i s khc bit gia hai mc thu sut ny. ng thi, th tr ng ch ng khon Vit Nam t khi kh ng ho ng nm 2008 cho n by gi , tuy c tc phc h i cao, nh ng tm l nhiu nh u t cn lo ng i v hin ti vn ch a c nhi u y u t tch c c thc y th tr ng. Trong khi, vic thc hin chnh sch c tc b ng cch mua l i c ph n l t c ch tr ng, m cc doanh nghi p th ng xem l hnh thc u t ti chnh trn th tr ng b ng chnh c phiu c a mnh. Vic p dng hnh thc mua l i c phn trong thi im kt thc nm ti chnh
Phm Th Thanh Xun, Chnh sch c tc L thuy t v th c tin t i m t s cng ty c ph n khu vc thnh ph H Ch Minh , Lun vn thc s Kinh t, nm 2007.
4
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2010 s tng lng c u trn th tr ng v to ng lc tng gi c phiu, gp phn tch c c lm chuyn bin th tr ng theo xu h ng tt h n. Nh ng v di h n, vic mua li c phn tr c tc l t thch hp i vi mt th trng ch ng khon cn mi m v c n huy ng nhiu v n, cng nh cn nhiu hng ho pht trin nh th trng ch ng khon Vit Nam. Vy, hnh thc c tc tin m t vn l hnh thc ch o theo quan im ca bi nghin c u ny. Ngoi ra, cc doanh nghi p c th linh ng p d ng cc hnh thc c tc b ng c ph n ho c c tc b ng ti sn cng nh chia, tch c phiu nh m t s ph h p vi nguyn v ng c a cc c ng v ti a ho gi tr doanh nghip. 3.3.3 Mc n nh c a chnh sch chi tr c t c: M hnh (2) nh ng ph n trn kim nh mi quan h gi a s thay i trong c tc chi tr v s thay i trong gi c phi u trn th tr ng v ch ra r ng cc doanh nghip c chnh sch c tc n nh hay chi tr vi m c c tc tng nh th ng xuyn th ng c xu h ng l gi c phiu tng vi tc rt cao qua cc n m. C th, trung bnh nu mt doanh nghip khng thay i c tc qua cc nm th doanh nghip ny c gi c phiu trn th trng tng ln ti 39,41% trong nm . M hnh cng khuyn cc doanh nghi p gia tng t su t c tc (tnh theo cng mt mc gi cho nm g c) t 0% n 3% l tt nh t, n u tng cao h n 4,165% th gi c phiu trn th tr ng l i c xu h ng gi m. Nh vy, mt doanh nghi p c m c c tc n nh c cc nh u t a thch h n l cc doanh nghi p c m c c tc thay i. y dng nh l c trng v tc ng pht tn hi u ca chnh sch c tc. Nh ng cc doanh nghi p trn th trng ch ng khon ph n ln l cn c quy m nh, tc tng tr ng cao nn chnh sch c tc li nhun gi li th ng c u tin nh l p lun cc phn trn, th bng cch no cc doanh nghip c th thc hin chi tr c tc vi cc mc n nh qua cc nm? Cc doanh nghip hon ton c th p d ng cho mnh chnh sch l i nhu n gi l i th ng nh ng vn gi c mc c tc n nh, bng cch kt h p linh
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hot gi a cc chnh sch c tc ny vi chnh sch c tc tin mt n nh v chnh sch c tc nh k thp c ng vi c tc tng thm. Ngoi ra, cc doanh nghi p trn th tr ng ch ng khon Vit Nam c ng c th thc hin hai cch sau y. u tin, doanh nghi p c th gi li li nhu n kh cao trong nhng nm c nhu c u v n cao. Nu cng ty tip t c tng trng, cc gim c c th tip tc thc hin chin lc ny m khng nh t thit ph i gim c tc. Th hai, doanh nghip c th vay vn cho nhu c u v n m mnh cn v do tng t l n trn vn c phn mt cch tm thi trnh tr ng h p gi m c tc. Nu doanh nghip c nhiu c hi u t tt trong su t mt nm no th chnh sch vay n s thch h p h n so vi c t gi m c tc. Sau , doanh nghip c th gi li li nhu n hay bn c phn mi y t s n trn v n c phn v vi m c thch hp. ng thi, cc doanh nghi p cng phi hi u r mc tiu cng nh cch thc thc hin chnh sch li nhu n gi l i vi cc bc nh sau: Th nh t, d on thu nhp v cc c hi u t mc trung bnh trong m t kho ng thi gian t nh t l nm nm ti. Th hai, s dng nh ng thng tin ny xc nh l ng thu nh p trung bnh tr c tc, t l tr c tc theo chnh sch l i nhun gi li th ng trong kho ng thi gian m doanh nghip lp k ho ch. Th ba, sau , ra chnh sch tr c tc m c tiu d a trn cc d liu d on. Nh vy, nh ng doanh nghip trn th tr ng ch ng khon Vit Nam nn s dng m hnh li nhun gi li th ng thit lp t l tr c tc mc tiu trong di hn, ch khng ph i l cch thc xc nh t l chi tr c tc cho mi mt nm. T , cc doanh nghip c th duy tr c m c c tc n nh qua cc n m. Cc cng ty nn s dng chnh sch ny m t cch c nguyn t c v phi c thc hin b ng mt m hnh d bo ti chnh trn my vi tnh. Thng tin v chi ph s dng v n d kin v yu c u v n lun chuyn c a vo m hnh cng vi cc d bo lng hng bn, l i nhu n bin, kh u hao, v cc yu t khc c n thit cho vic d bo
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dng tin. Cu trc vn m c tiu cng phi c xc nh r rng. M hnh ny s tnh ra l ng v n vay v v n c ph n p ng yu c u ngn sch vn trong khi duy tr c c u trc vn m c tiu. Cc cng ty c th dng m hnh ny thit lp m t t l chi tr c tc trong m t kho ng thi gian d kin m bo vn c phn h tr ngn sch v n m khng c n phi bn ra c phiu ph thng m i hay thay i cu trc v n m c tiu. K T LU N CHNG 3: Cc doanh nghi p nim yt trn th tr ng ch ng khon Vit Nam nn hc tp kinh nghim chi tr c tc ca cc doanh nghi p trn th gii c lnh vc kinh doanh ph hp. ng thi, cc doanh nghip nim yt phi n m v ng cc nguyn t c khi a ra quyt nh chnh sch c tc. Trong chng ny, ti cng gi xy d ng quy trnh ra quyt nh c tc cho cc doanh nghi p, quy trnh ny gp ph n gi m b t cn x ng thng tin trong doanh nghi p. V, n c th a chnh sch c tc h ng v mc tiu cui cng c a n l ti a ha ti sn c a cc c ng. Chng ny cng a ra m t s xut l a ch n chnh sch c tc ti u cho doanh nghip nim yt cc doanh nghip c th tham kh o khi ra quyt nh c tc trong tng lai. Quan im c a chuyn l khi gim bt cn x ng thng tin trong doanh nghi p, khi cc c ng s nm r tnh hnh c a doanh nghip, th h hon ton c th a ra chnh sch c tc ti u ph h p vi ring doanh nghi p mnh.
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PH N K T LU N: Doanh nghip nn quyt nh chnh sch c tc nh th no? Cu hi khng ch lin quan n chnh sch c tc m n cn lin quan n chnh sch ti tr v chnh sch u t ca doanh nghi p. Quyt nh phn phi ni ring v cc quyt nh ti chnh khc c a mt doanh nghip ni chung u ph i h ng ti mc tiu cui cng l ti a ho gi tr doanh nghip. Cc quyt nh ti chnh lun lun lin quan mt thit vi nhau, v chu s tc ng ca nhiu nhn t bn trong v bn ngoi doanh nghip. Do vy, vic ra cc quyt nh ti chnh l mt vn ph c tp v kh khn, n i hi cc gim c ti chnh ph i c hiu thu o v p d ng thnh cng cc kin thc ti chnh doanh nghip hin i. Bi nghin c u a ra cc phn tch chi tit v chnh sch c tc ca cc doanh nghip nim yt trn th tr ng ch ng khon Vit Nam trong thi gian qua. M c d, bi nghin c u khng gii quyt ht t t c cc vn pht sinh trong thc tin lin quan n chnh sch c tc nh cc yu t tc ng n chnh sch c tc; hoc cc hnh thc phn phi c tc b ng c ph n, v bng hnh thc mua li c phn; hoc chnh sch c tc ring p d ng cho tng ngnh c th. Nh ng chng ti vn hy vng rng, n c th gp mt ph n vo vic nng cao cng tc qu n l ti chnh c a cc doanh nghip trn th tr ng ch ng khon Vit Nam trong thi gian ti. H ng nghin c u m r ng ca ti: Vic c nh ng phn tch y v r rng v chnh sch c tc cng nh tm quan tr ng ca n n vic ti u ha gi tr doanh nghip s gp ph n quan trng lm cng tc qu n l ti chnh c a doanh nghip tr nn hiu qu hn. Do vy, t nh ng h n ch ca ti ny chng ti xut m rng vic phn tch cc chnh sch c tc theo nhng hng nh sau: Th nh t, phn tch cc chnh sch c tc khc nh chnh sch c tc b ng c phn, hoc mua li c ph n v nh gi tc ng t ng hp ca tt c cc chnh sch c tc n gi tr th tr ng c a doanh nghip.
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Th hai, nh l ng cc yu t tc ng ln chnh sch c tc ca cc doanh nghi p nim yt trn th trng ch ng khon Vit Nam. Th ba, phn tch cc chnh sch c tc p d ng cc ngnh khc nhau trn th trng chng khon Vit nam, t a ra nhng cn c nhm xc nh chnh sch c tc ph h p nht cho t ng ngnh trn th tr ng ch ng khon Vit Nam. Nh ng h ng m rng ny nu c th c hin nghin c u mt cch y v hiu qu s gp nng cao tm vc ti chnh ca cc doanh nghi p nim yt cng nh thc y th tr ng ch ng khon Vit Nam pht trin.
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TI LI U THAM KH O: Ti li u ti ng Vi t: 1. PGS.TS Tr n Ngc Th (2007), Ti chnh doanh nghip hin i, Nh xut bn Th ng K, trang 307-343. 2. Hc vin ti chnh (2008), Gio trnh ti chnh doanh nghi p, Nh xut bn Ti chnh, trang 257-290. 3. Eugene F.Brigham, Joel F. Houston (2008), Qu n tr ti chnh , i h c kinh t lut Thnh ph H Ch Minh - Nh Xut B n Cengage Learning, trang 774-814. 4. Th.S Trn Th Hi L, Hnh vi b y n trn th trng ch ng khon Vi t Nam, nguyn nhn v m t s gi i php , Tp ch Ti chnh v pht tri n, s 5, 6/2010. 5. Phm Th Thanh Xun (2007), Chnh sch c tc L thuy t v th c tin t i mt s cng ty c ph n khu vc thnh ph H Ch Minh , Lu n vn thc s Kinh t. 6. Bi Th Ngc Anh (2009), Xy d ng chnh sch c tc cho cc cng ty c ph n nim y t t i Vit Nam, Lu n vn th c s Kinh t. 7. Nguyn Duy L n g (2007), Chnh sch c tc ca cc cng ty nim yt trn th trng ch ng khon Vi t Nam, Lun vn th c s Kinh t. 8. Th.S. Nguyn Kim Thu, Chnh sch c tc hp l - Mt bi ton cha c li gii? , Tp ch chng khon, thng 11, nm 2008. 9. Hip hi cc nh u t ti chnh Vit Nam (2009) , VAFI nh gi chn h sch c tc ti cc cng ty i chng trong mi l m nm qua . 10. L An Khang (2008), nh h ng c a b t cn x ng thng tin i vi nh u t trn th trng ch ng khon thn ph H Ch Minh, Lun vn th c s Kinh t. 11. TS. Ph m Kinh Lun (2010), Ch ng khon ph ng, h i tho to m vi khch hng StoxPro.
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12. Cc website: www.ssc.gov.vn www.hsx.vn www.hnx.vn www.vafi.org.vn www.hsc.com.vn www.fpts.com.vn Ti li u ti ng Anh: 1. George M. Frankfurter, Bob G. Wood, James W. Wansley (2003), Dividend policy: theory and practice , Elsevier Science. 2. Harold Kent Baker (2009), Dividends and Dividend Policy , Jonh Wiley and Sons, Inc. 3. Aswath Damodaran (2010), Applied Corporate Finance, Third Edition, pp. 505591. 4. Henri Servaes, Peter Tufano (February, 2006), The Theory and Practice of Corporate Dividend and Share Repurchase Policy , Deutsche Bank. 5. Liang Shao (2010) , Two Essays on Cross-Country Differences in Corporate Dividend Policies , www.ssrn.com. 6. Clemens Sialm (2009), Tax Changes and Asset Pricing , American Economic Review. 7. Michael J. Mauboussin (January 25, 2011), The Real Role of Dividends in Building Wealth, Legg Mason Capital Management. 8. Michael S. Rozeff Michael S. Rozeff (Fall 1982), Growth, Beta and Agency Costs as Determinants of Dividend Payout Ratios , Journal of Financial Research, Vol. 5, No. 3, pp. 249-259. (y ban chng khon Nh nc) (S Giao dch ch ng khon TP. HCM) (S giao dch ch ng khon H Ni) (Hip hi cc nh u t ti chnh Vit Nam) (Cng ty C Ph n Ch ng Khon Thnh Ph H Ch Minh) (Cng ty C Ph n Ch ng Khon FPT).
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9. Mark S. Grinblatt, Ronald W. Masulis and Sheridan Titman (July 1984), The Valuation Effects of Stock Splits and Stock Dividends , www.ssrn.com. 10. Henk von Eije, William Megginson (March 15, 2007), Dvidend policy in the european union, www.ssrn.com. 11. King Fuei LEE (March 2008), Owning assets that pay shareholders to own them over time: The power of investing for dividends in Asia , Schroder Investments Limited. 12. J.P.Morgan (2011), Dividends: The 2011 guide to dividend policy trends and best practices, Corporate Finance Advisory. 13. Werner R.Murhadi (2007), Study On Dividend Policy: Antecedent and Its Im pact On Share Price, www.ssrn.com. 14. John R. M.Hand, Wayne R. Landsman (1999), The Pricing of Dividends in Equity Valuation , www.ssrn.com. 15. Kenneth Khang, Tao-Hsien Dolly King (2002), Is Dividend Policy related to Information Asymmetry? Evidence from Insider Trading Gains , www.ssrn.com. 16. Samy Ben Naceur, Mohamed Goaied and Amel Belanes (2007), On the Determinants and Dynamics of dividend policy, www.ssrn.com. 17. Kai Nekat and Peter Nippel (2008), The Impact of a Firms Payout Policy on Stock Prices and Shareholders Wealth in an Inefficient Market , www.ssrn.com 18. SALIH, ALAA,A (2010) The Effect of Dividend Policy on Market Value UK Empirical Study. Doctoral thesi s, Durham University, at Durham E-Theses Online: http://etheses.dur.ac.uk/556/ 19. Cc website: www.standardandpoors.com www.bloomberg.com www.jpmorgan.com www.dividendgrowthinvestor.com (Standard and Poors) (Bloomberg) (J.P.Morgan) (Dividend Growth Investor)
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PH L C: Ph l c hnh 2.1: Ph n trm s l ng cc doanh nghi p phn lo i theo m c n nh ca c tc chi tr t nm 2002 n nm 2009:
M c n nh c tc Nm 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Khng i 0.00% 80.00% 66.67% 62.96% 36.70% 20.40% 23.37% 33.74%
Tng 100.00% 6.67% 20.83% 24.07% 30.28% 43.78% 41.00% 31.90%
Gim 0.00% 13.33% 12.50% 12.96% 33.03% 35.82% 35.63% 34.36%
Ph lc hnh 2.2: Thu nhp v c tc mi c phn trung bnh c a th trng t nm 2000 n nm 2010:
Nm DIV EPS 2000* 518.22 871.25 2001 600 1027 2002 864.44 1210.6 2003 910.42 1427 2004 1063.5 2185.3 2005 1305.2 3482.5 2006 1388.5 3866.6 2007 1343 4421.8 2008 1369 3032.8 2009 1353.1 3717.6 2010* 2019.1 3572.1
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Ph l c hnh 2.3:
S lng cc doanh nghip ni m yt phn loi theo cc nhm mc chi tr c tc (tnh theo % mnh gi mi c phn) Nm 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 0-5% 2 23 23 23 24 24 29 60 79 5-10% 2 0 0 0 6 29 34 34 37 10-15% 2 8 9 10 31 58 83 72 105 15-20% 0 7 10 14 31 54 73 85 94 20-25% 0 4 3 4 8 23 20 43 53 25-30% 0 1 0 1 4 6 9 15 15 >=30% Tng 0 2 3 2 6 11 14 19 27 6 45 48 54 110 205 262 328 410
Ph l c hnh 2.4: T trng s lng cc doanh nghip phn loi cc nhm mc chi tr c tc (tnh theo % mnh gi mi c phn) Nm 0%-5% 5%-10% 10%-15% 15%-20% 20%-25% 25%-30% >=30% 2001 33% 33% 33% 0% 0% 0% 0% 2002 51% 0% 18% 16% 9% 2% 4% 2003 48% 0% 19% 21% 6% 0% 6% 2004 43% 0% 19% 26% 7% 2% 4% 2005 22% 5% 28% 28% 7% 4% 5% 2006 12% 14% 28% 26% 11% 3% 5% 2007 11% 13% 32% 28% 8% 3% 5% 2008 18% 10% 22% 26% 13% 5% 6% 2009 19% 9% 26% 23% 13% 4% 7%
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Ph lc hnh 2.5: Mc c tc mi c ph n (DPS) trung bnh ca th tr ng t nm 2001 n nm 2009 (n v ng): Mc chi tr c tc (DPS) trung bnh t nm 2001 n nm 2009 S DPS nh DPS ln DPS trung Nm lng nht nht bnh lch chun 2001 6 0 1,000 600 395.81140290 2002 45 0 3,000 864 965.20707175 2003 48 0 4,500 910 1030.01609683 2004 54 0 5,500 1,063 1198.66568936 2005 110 0 5,000 1,305 977.57547636 2006 205 0 6,000 1,389 961.68855856 2007 262 0 4,800 1,343 809.98177396 2008 328 0 9,500 1,369 1045.61494043 2009 410 0 11,000 1,353 1115.19132956
Ph l c hnh 2.7: S lng cc doanh nghip nim yt phn loi theo cc nhm t l chi tr c tc khc nhau qua cc nm Nm 0%-20% 20%-40% 40%-60% 60%-80% 80%-100% >=100% Tng 2001 1 2 6 10 1 1 21 2002 23 5 8 7 0 1 44 2003 23 5 5 3 0 1 37 2004 24 8 9 3 0 0 44 2005 29 14 24 7 4 10 88 2006 44 57 47 29 13 7 197 2007 54 86 75 35 8 4 262 2008 61 59 86 70 29 20 325 2009 96 91 118 68 24 10 407
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Ph l c hnh 2.8: T trng s lng cc doanh nghip phn loi theo cc nhm t l chi tr c tc khc nhau qua cc nm: Nm 0%-20% 20%-40% 40%-60% 60%-80% 80%-100% >=100% 2001 5% 10% 29% 48% 5% 5% 2002 52% 11% 18% 16% 0% 2% 2003 62% 14% 14% 8% 0% 3% 2004 55% 18% 20% 7% 0% 0% 2005 33% 16% 27% 8% 5% 11% 2006 22% 29% 24% 15% 7% 4% 2007 21% 33% 29% 13% 3% 2% 2008 19% 18% 26% 22% 9% 6% 2009 24% 22% 29% 17% 6% 2%
Ph l c hnh 2.9:
T sut c tc trung bnh ca th trng t nm 2001 n nm 2009 S T sut c tc nh T sut c tc ln T sut c tc trung lng nht nht bnh 6 0.00% 3.19% 2.19% 45 0.00% 13.51% 3.41% 48 0.00% 19.83% 3.94% 54 0.00% 46.88% 3.98% 110 0.00% 34.00% 4.38% 205 0.00% 238.10% 5.83% 262 0.00% 12.94% 2.57% 328 0.00% 43.48% 9.46% 410 0.00% 28.85% 5.16% lch chun 1.16% 4.78% 5.80% 7.77% 6.01% 18.01% 1.85% 6.68% 3.91%
Nm 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
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Ph l c hnh 2.10: S lng cc doanh nghip phn loi theo cc nhm t sut c tc khc nhau
Nm 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 0%-2% 1 23 23 22 24 55 94 50 90 2%-4% 4 1 1 0 5 54 95 20 76 4%-6% 0 1 1 5 5 30 33 20 79 6%-8% 0 4 3 7 6 10 7 49 84 8%-10% 0 2 4 4 6 13 2 36 44 10%-12% 0 2 1 0 1 4 0 38 17 >=12% 0 4 4 1 4 14 1 106 20 Tng 5 37 37 39 51 180 232 319 410
Ph l c hnh 2.11: T trng s lng cc doanh nghip nim yt phn loi theo cc nhm t sut c tc khc nhau qua cc nm
Nm 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 0%-2% 20.00% 62.16% 62.16% 56.41% 47.06% 30.56% 40.52% 15.67% 21.95% 2%-4% 80.00% 2.70% 2.70% 0.00% 9.80% 30.00% 40.95% 6.27% 18.54% 4%-6% 0.00% 2.70% 2.70% 12.82% 9.80% 16.67% 14.22% 6.27% 19.27% 6%-8% 0.00% 10.81% 8.11% 17.95% 11.76% 5.56% 3.02% 15.36% 20.49% 8%-10% 0.00% 5.41% 10.81% 10.26% 11.76% 7.22% 0.86% 11.29% 10.73% 10%-12% 0.00% 5.41% 2.70% 0.00% 1.96% 2.22% 0.00% 11.91% 4.15% >=12% 0.00% 10.81% 10.81% 2.56% 7.84% 7.78% 0.43% 33.23% 4.88%
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Ph l c hnh 2.12:
M c c tc m i c phn (DPS) trung bnh theo ngnh trong giai on 2001-2009 Ngnh Cng ngh thng tin Cng nghi p Du kh Dch v ti n ch Dch v tiu dng Hng tiu dng Nguyn v t li u Ti chnh Y t 2001 2002 2003 1000 950 N/A N/A N/A 350 0 N/A N/A 1600 825 0 433 N/A 856 1500 N/A 0 1600 1000 0 500 1300 739 1500 1400 0 2004 2005 1600 1119 1200 500 1200 765 750 3450 2200 1483 1234 600 1100 1200 1041 1550 2100 2400 2006 2007 2008 1421 1515 1033 1385 1000 1104 1289 1581 1533 1571 1266 1390 1332 1356 1543 1439 1072 2100 782 1379 1300 1275 1418 1344 1641 1155 2100 2009 760 1366 1017 1330 1148 1452 1353 1296 2263 S lng 10 219 6 21 30 67 41 48 11
Ph l c hnh 2.14:
T l chi tr c tc trung bnh theo ngnh trong giai on 2001 2009: Ngnh Cng ngh thng tin Cng nghi p D u kh D ch v tin ch D ch v tiu dng Hng tiu dng Nguyn v t li u Ti chnh Y t 2001 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 0.00% N/A N/A 2002 N/A 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% N/A 0.00% 0.00% N/A 0.00% 2003 45.71% 19.26% 0.00% 0.00% N/A 23.95% 22.22% N/A 0.00% 2004 51.22% 19.16% N/A 12.76% 65.79% 21.01% 14.12% N/A N/A 2005 34.92% 166.42% 9.54% 26.34% 66.11% 41.09% 36.68% 60.61% 40.26% 2006 38.57% 55.53% 51.09% 46.19% 39.30% 33.01% 39.15% 31.04% 25.05% 2007 96.10% 40.26% 34.90% 50.30% 38.50% 42.36% 33.34% 21.69% 35.76% 2008 75.99% 54.60% 25.30% 56.01% 57.06% 68.94% 58.72% 35.42% 45.95% 2009 26.40% 67.32% 23.71% 45.53% 55.29% 48.07% 37.59% 33.94% 36.47% S lng 10 219 6 21 30 67 41 48 11
88
Ph l c hnh 2.16:
T sut c tc trung bnh theo ngnh trong giai o n 2001 - 2009
Ngnh Cng ngh thng tin Cng nghi p D u kh Dch v tin ch Dch v tiu dng Hng tiu dng Nguyn v t liu Ti chnh Y t 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 S lng 10 219 6 21 30 67 41 48 11
3.04% 2.65% N/A N/A N/A 2.60% 0.00% N/A N/A
5.52% 3.00% 0.00% 0.00% N/A 4.34% 4.50% N/A 0.00%
7.84% 3.85% 0.00% 0.00% N/A 4.39% 6.02% N/A 0.00%
4.32% 2.42% N/A 15.63% N/A 3.20% 3.23% N/A N/A
3.79% 4.38% 0.00% 12.93% 7.69% 3.39% 3.96% 0.00% N/A
3.98% 8.57% 1.48% 6.65% 3.04% 3.08% 3.02% 1.73% 1.26%
2.79% 7.07% 2.50% 10.12% 1.91% 4.25% 4.29% 9.83% 2.19% 10.95% 3.32% 9.94% 2.37% 9.84% 1.06% 5.28% 1.15% 5.07%
2.62% 5.26% 2.88% 5.98% 8.09% 5.47% 4.96% 3.23% 3.83%
Ph l c kim nh m hnh h i qui (1):

Dependent Variable: P Method: Least Squares Date: 05/11/11 Time: 21:08 Sample: 1 1167 Included observations: 1166 P=(1)+(2)*DIV+(3)*EPS+(4)*R Coefficient (1) (2) (3) (4) R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood 4.751668 0.001498 0.004140 23.03369 0.231589 0.229605 33.01930 1266899. -5730.089 Std. Error 3.649599 0.001376 0.000354 4.872567 Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Durbin-Watson stat t-Statistic 1.301970 1.088970 11.71020 4.727219 Prob. 0.1932 0.2764 0.0000 0.0000 36.45386 37.61934 9.835486 9.852849 1.437657
89
Ph l c cc thng k chi tit v cc kim nh lin quan c a m hnh hi qui (1): Ma trn tng quan:
DIV DIV EPS P R
1.000000
EPS
0.498339 1.000000
P
0.188249 0.463042 1.000000
R
-0.350916 0.246063 0.238050 1.000000
Ma Tr n hip Phng sai:

C(1) C(2) C(3) C(4) C(1) 13.31957 -0.003634 0.000472 -15.65769 C(2) -0.003634 1.89E-06 -3.13E-07 0.003778 C(3) 0.000472 -3.13E-07 1.25E-07 -0.000893 C(4) -15.65769 0.003778 -0.000893 23.74191
Gi tr cc th ng k m t:
Mean Median Maximum Minimum Std. Dev. Skewness Kurtosis Jarque-Bera Probability Sum Sum Sq. Dev. Observations P 36.45386 25.50000 459.4000 0.000000 37.61934 3.924907 28.76536 35245.92 0.000000 42505.20 1648725. 1166 DIV 1402.128 1400.000 11000.00 0.000000 981.6855 2.317491 18.25016 12342.61 0.000000 1634881. 1.12E+09 1166 EPS 3904.648 3308.000 33580.00 -13528.00 3690.853 2.287369 17.18558 10793.22 0.000000 4552819. 1.59E+10 1166 R 0.583285 0.577000 1.000000 0.000000 0.247956 0.022216 2.363292 19.79143 0.000050 680.1100 71.62684 1166
90
Kim tra a c ng tuy n s dng nhn t phng i phng sai (VIF):

R 0.599176 0.671193 0.697874 R2 0.359012 0.450500 0.487028 1-R2 0.640988 0.549500 0.512972 VIF = 1/(1-R2 ) 1.5600916086 1.8198362147 1.9494241401
R = f (DIV,EPS) EPS = f (DIV,R) DIV = f (EPS,R)
Ph l c kim nh m hnh h i qui (2):

SUMMARY OUTPUT Regression Statistics Multiple R 0.557714663 R Square 0.311045645 Adjusted R Square 0.310160099 Standard Error 1.357862727 Observations 780
ANOVA Regression Residual Total df 1 778 779 SS 647.6270893 1434.469543 2082.096632 MS 647.6271 1.843791 F 351.24752 Significance F 5.8178E-65
Coefficients Intercept X Vari able 1 0.394196062 -9.464806839
Standard Error 0.048697686 0.505015978
t Stat 8.09476 -18.7416
P-value 0.000000 0.000000
Lower 95% 0.298601637 -10.4561622
Upper 95% 0.489790487 -8.473451483
91
Ph lc phn ngnh: Danh sch phn ngnh ca 453 doanh nghi p nim yt trn th trng chng khon Vit Nam vo ngy 31/12/2009 (Ngun: http://hsc.com.vn )
Ngnh Cng ngh thng tin FPT ALP TTP VKP SAP TMC DXP ILC VST CSG B82 REE CCM NAV SJE S64 TXM VTS V11 HBC HT1 UIC PHC PGC PVG S74 KHP HAX TCT DAE SRB CTB HBD TPC NVC TSC VSG TMS VIP BTH BHV MCG PTM BMP S12 SSS PVA DAC V15 TKC SCJ SDP TV2 PLC PGS SJD TST CJC BBS NTP SHI PIT VSC PGT VTO LGC BHC TCR LCG RDP SJM SD7 SDC DTC VC2 CID SCC DIC VC1 PVC MTG NLC POT L10 BXH DPC GIL TH1 MAC HCT PJT TYA HCC SKS LM3 DNP SD2 SD8 TV3 VMC VC3 C92 SDY PTC SDU PVD SFC HJS HBE SGH HEV M chng khon ONE L62 CLC VCB KKC PAN TJC PJC VFC SRF XMC QTC L43 SDG SDJ SD9 TV4 VCC SC5 VE1 TBX CIC PVX PGD ASP RHC DST RIC CTC UNI MEC PMS SRA ST8 SMC VNT VSP TCL GLT BT6 DID L44 PPG SD3 S91 VTV VC6 VC5 VE9 YBC L18 VNE PVS PSC TBC LBE VPL ALT COM TMP QST PET EFI BTP VSH STC ECI EID NBP SEB PNC HST DAD PPC TIC VNS SGD SED TLC SVI STP HPG SDA SHN VNL VNA GMD TIE MCV DC4 LO5 SDN SD4 S96 VHL VTA VC7 HAS QNC CSC VCG VTC BPC SFN VNC VMG TIX MHC HTV SFI VHG DZM CYC L61 SJC SD5 S99 HLY DCC VC9 SDS DXV SDD FPC SAM VPK MCP DHI TMX PVE SHC PTS DVP DNC CDC NHC MCO SDT S55 DCT TLT CTN ICG BCC VCS LUT HT2 LTC SPP DTT HTP TNA VGP DDM VFR PVT VBH CVT LBM NAG SNG SD6 HUT VIT SDH CNT BTS HPS CTM
Cng nghip
Du Kh Dch v tin ch Dch v tiu dng
MKV BST PDC VNG EBS BED
92
RAL GDT SBT Hng tiu dng SAF SJ1 DHC AGC LIX HSI PHT TKU VID BVH D2D CII CTG WSS DHG AMV
DQC VTB LAF LSS TS4 BHS SCD HRC DPM KSH HLA PVI NTL NBB VCB SSI DBT
GTA SRC NGC ANV VHC NST VNM PHR BKC TCS HMC BMI SZL SJS SHB SHS DCL
SAV DRC CAD ATA FBT TCM VDL TRC HOM TC6 VGS VNR STL ITA STB HCM PMC
MHL CSM DBC SGC NPS VTL TNC HGM HLC HSG SGT HLG LGL EIB VIX DHT
KMR PAC GGG TAC AGF GMC TRI DPR DHA THT VIS SVC VPH BCI BVS MSN IMP CMC SSC IFS ABT PNJ NKD HVT BMC MDC GHA DXG VIC RCL HPC VIG OPC
TTF HHC NSC FMC ACL TNG VFG MMC NBC YSC HAG ITC DIG KLS PVF DVD
DCS BAS HVG BLF ICF HAD TPP SQC TDN CAP HDC SIC KBC CTS TRA
KHA BBC KDC AAM CAN THB HAI MIC SSM HAP TDH VNI ACB AGR DMC
HNM MPC
Nguyn vt liu
Ti chnh
Y t

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i

B GIO DC V O TO B GIO DC V O TO TRNG I H C KINH T TP.HCM TRNG I H C KINH T TP.HCM ---------------------------------

TN CNG TRNH: TN CNG TRNH:

1.1.2 Chnh sch c t c:...............................................................................................7 1.1.2.1 1.1.2.2 1.1.2.3 1.1.2.4

1.1.3 Cc chnh sch c tc trong th c tin: ............................................................13 1.1.3.1 1.1.3.2 1.1.3.3

DANH M C CC HNH V, TH V B NG BIU:

Cc trng phi trn th gi i v chnh sch c tc v gi tr doanh nghi p:

khon, thng 11, nm 2008.

Hnh 1.1: Lch s thu sut M t nm 1961 n nm 2011:

Thu sut nh trn c tc Thu sut nh trn li v n

Tnh theo s lng

Tnh theo mc vn ho th trng

Ngu n: Aswath Damodaran (2010), Applied Corporate Finance, Third Edition

http://stockbiz.vn (Xem ph l c hnh 2.7).

http://stockbiz.vn (Xem ph l c hnh 2.8).

http://stockbiz.vn (Xem ph l c hnh 3.9).

Hnh 2.13: Mc c tc m i c phn c a cc ngnh trong nm 2009 :

Hnh 2.15: T l chi tr c tc ca cc ngnh trong nm 2009:

Hnh 2.17: T sut c tc c a cc ngnh trong nm 2009:

Pt = f (DIVt , EPSt , Rt) Dt = TDt/V0: C t c trn mi c phiu, phiu.

Pt = Vt/V0: Gi c phiu c a cng ty,

Trong ta c th t cc bin s nh sau: Ph n trm thay i trong gi c phiu qua cc n m l:

Thay i trong t sut c tc (Dividend Yield (DY)):

(0,048697686) (8,094759569) (0,000000)

Khng i 0.00% 80.00% 66.67% 62.96% 36.70% 20.40% 23.37% 33.74%

Tng 100.00% 6.67% 20.83% 24.07% 30.28% 43.78% 41.00% 31.90%

Gim 0.00% 13.33% 12.50% 12.96% 33.03% 35.82% 35.63% 34.36%

Nm 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

3.04% 2.65% N/A N/A N/A 2.60% 0.00% N/A N/A

5.52% 3.00% 0.00% 0.00% N/A 4.34% 4.50% N/A 0.00%

7.84% 3.85% 0.00% 0.00% N/A 4.39% 6.02% N/A 0.00%

4.32% 2.42% N/A 15.63% N/A 3.20% 3.23% N/A N/A

3.79% 4.38% 0.00% 12.93% 7.69% 3.39% 3.96% 0.00% N/A

3.98% 8.57% 1.48% 6.65% 3.04% 3.08% 3.02% 1.73% 1.26%

2.62% 5.26% 2.88% 5.98% 8.09% 5.47% 4.96% 3.23% 3.83%

Ph l c kim nh m hnh h i qui (1):

Ma Tr n hip Phng sai:

Kim tra a c ng tuy n s dng nhn t phng i phng sai (VIF):

R = f (DIV,EPS) EPS = f (DIV,R) DIV = f (EPS,R)

Ph l c kim nh m hnh h i qui (2):

Coefficients Intercept X Vari able 1 0.394196062 -9.464806839

Standard Error 0.048697686 0.505015978

t Stat 8.09476 -18.7416

P-value 0.000000 0.000000

Lower 95% 0.298601637 -10.4561622

Upper 95% 0.489790487 -8.473451483

Du Kh Dch v tin ch Dch v tiu dng

MKV BST PDC VNG EBS BED

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