VIN KHOA HC KH TNG THY VN V MI TRNG

TI LIU HNG DN

NH GI TC NG CA BIN I KH HU V XC NH CC GII PHP THCH NG

VIN KHOA HC KH TNG THY VN V MI TRNG

TI LIU HNG DN

NH GI TC NG CA BIN I KH HU V XC NH CC GII PHP THCH NG

H Ni 2011

i liu hng dn nh gi tc ng ca bin i kh hu v xc nh cc gii php thch ng c Vin Khoa hc Kh tng Thy vn v Mi trng (IMHEN) xy dng vi s ti tr ca Chng trnh Pht trin ca Lin Hp Quc (UNDP). n phm ny c th c ti xut bn mt phn hoc ton b ni dung cung cp thng tin phc v gio dc hoc phi li nhun m khng cn xin php bn quyn, min l c li cm n v dn ngun xut bn. Vin Khoa hc Kh tng Thy vn v Mi trng cng nh Chng trnh Pht trin ca Lin Hp Quc nh gi cao nu nhn c mt bn sao ca bt c n phm no c pht hnh c s dng ti liu ny tham kho. n phm ny khng c s dng bn li hoc v bt c mc ch thng mi khc trc khi c s cho php bng vn bn ca Vin Khoa hc Kh tng Thy vn v Mi trng cng nh ca Chng trnh Pht trin ca Lin Hp Quc.
Chu trch nhim ni dung: Vin Khoa hc Kh tng Thy vn v Mi trng Chu trch nhim xut bn: Ths.Nguyn Chn Huyn Bin tp: ng L Nguyn Tng, ng Trn Vn Sp Thit k, ch bn: Hs. Phm Trung Hiu S ng k KHXB: 19-2011/CXB/04-583/B - In xong np lu chuyn thng 4 nm 2011 In ti: X nghip In ng Bc - S lng: 1000 cun, kch thc 20,5x29,5 cm

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Li cm n
Vin Khoa hc Kh tng Thy vn v Mi trng xin by t lng cm n n Chng trnh Pht trin ca Lin Hp Quc (UNDP) h tr k thut v ti chnh cho vic xy dng ti liu Hng dn ny; cm n cc n v/c nhn cung cp s liu, thng tin cng nh cc t chc/chuyn gia tham gia xy dng v hon thin ti liu hng dn ny. c bit xin cm n: Nhm cn b ca Vin Khoa hc Kh tng Thy vn v Mi trng: PGS.TS. Trn Thc TS. Nguyn Vn Thng TS. Nguyn Th Hin Thun Ths. Trn Thanh Thy Ths. Nguyn L Giang Nhm chuyn gia trong nc: Nhm chuyn gia thuc Vin Cng ngh Chu do TS. Nguyn Hng Thy Phn ch tr. Nhm chuyn gia thuc D n Tng cng nng lc quc gia ng ph vi BKH Vit Nam nhm gim nh tc ng v kim sot pht thi KNK do ng L Nguyn Tng ch tr.

Li gii thiu
Bin i kh hu l mt trong nhng thch thc nghim trng nht i vi Vit Nam trong vic thc hin cc mc tiu pht trin bn vng v xa i gim ngho. Trong o, ng bng sng Cu Long la vng d bi tn thng nht do nc bin dng. Nhn thc r nhng thch thc do bin i kh hu gy ra, ngy 02 thng 12 nm 2008 Th tng Chnh ph ph duyt Chng trnh mc tiu quc gia ng ph vi bin i kh hu ti Quyt nh s 158/2008/Q-TTg. y l mt trong nhng thnh cng ban u quan trng trong n lc ng ph vi bin i kh hu ca Vit Nam v mc tiu pht trin bn vng. Hai trong tm nhim v quan trng ca Chng trnh l: (1) nh gi mc v tc ng ca bin i kh hu i vi cc lnh vc, ngnh v a phng v (2) Xc nh cc gii php ng ph. Ngy 13 thng 10 nm 2009, B Ti nguyn v Mi trng c Cng vn s 3815/ BTNMT-KTTVBKH v Khung hng dn xy dng K hoch hnh ng ng ph vi bin i kh hu hng dn cc B, ngnh, a phng trin khai xy dng K hoch hnh ng ca mnh. Tuy nhin, do bin i kh hu l vn mi khng ch i vi Vit Nam m cn i vi c ton cu, nn nhiu a phng gp khng t kh khn trong vic trin khai thc hin hai nhim v ny. h tr cc a phng v k thut, phng php nh gi tc ng ca bin i kh hu v xut cc gii php ng ph, B Ti nguyn v Mi trng giao Vin Khoa hc Kh tng Thy vn v Mi trng ch tr xy dng Hng dn k thut nh gi tc ng ca bin i kh hu v xc nh cc gii php thch ng vi h tr kinh ph ca Chng trnh Pht trin ca Lin hp quc (UNDP). c bin son mt cch d hiu, d p dng v ph hp vi iu kin thc t ca cc a phng, hy vng ti liu s gp phn gip cc tnh, thnh ph trc thuc Trung ng trong tho g nhng kh khn, vng mc qu trnh xy dng K hoch hnh ng ng ph vi bin i kh hu. B Ti nguyn v Mi trng mong mun nhn c nhng kin ng gp ca cc chuyn gia, cc nh khoa hc, cc nh qun l v cc B, ngnh v a phng tip tc b sung, hon thin ti liu ny. Xin chn thnh cm n.

TS. Trn Hng H Th trng B Ti nguyn v Mi trng

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Mc lc
Mc lc ............................................................................................................................................................................ vi Cc s .........................................................................................................................................................................viii Cc bng biu................................................................................................................................................................ ix DAnh mc t vit tt........................................................................................................................................... xi Chng 1: M u...................................................................................................................................................... 1 1.1. Cn c xy dng Hng dn k thut................................................................................................................... 1 1.2. Phm vi ng dng ca Hng dn k thut......................................................................................................... 1 1.3. Gii thch thut ng.................................................................................................................................................. 2 1.4. Cu trc Hng dn k thut................................................................................................................................. 3 Chng 2: Tng quAn v tc ng cA bin i kh hu.................................................. 5 2.1. Cc tc ng chnh ca bin i kh hu.............................................................................................................. 5 2.2. Cc tc ng ca bin i kh hu theo vng a l............................................................................................ 5 2.2.1. Vng ven bin v hi o............................................................................................................................... 5 2.2.2. Vng ng bng.............................................................................................................................................. 5 2.2.3. Vng ni v trung du..................................................................................................................................... 5 2.2.4. Vng th....................................................................................................................................................... 5

Chng 3: Phng php nh gi tc ng cA bin i kh hu.......................... 9 3.1. Cch tip cn............................................................................................................................................................... 9 3.2. T chc thc hin nh gi tc ng ca bin i kh hu.............................................................................. 9 3.3. Quy trnh nh gi tc ng ca bin i kh hu...........................................................................................10 3.3.1. V tr ca nh gi tc ng trong quy trnh lp k hoch hnh ng ng ph vi bin i kh hu.........................................................................10 3.3.2. Cc bc nh gi tc ng ca bin i kh hu cho cp tnh..........................................................10

Chng 4: Xc nh cc gii php thch ng vi bin i kh hu.......................21 4.1. Cch tip cn ............................................................................................................................................................21 4.2. Quy trnh xc nh v chn la cc gii php thch ng..................................................................................21 Kt lun ...........................................................................................................................................................................28 Ti liu thAm khO.................................................................................................................................................31 1. Ting Vit.......................................................................................................................................................................31 2. Ting Anh......................................................................................................................................................................32

vii

Cc ph lc....................................................................................................................................................................35 Ph lc A. Cc phng php v cng c nh gi tc ng cA bin i kh hu theO ngnh, lnh vc................................................................35 A.1. Phn loi cc phng php nh gi tc ng ca bin i kh hu.............................................................35 A.1.1. Nhm phng php thc nghim............................................................................................................35 A.1.2. Nhm phng php ngoi suy cc s liu lch s .................................................................................35 A.1.3. Nhm phng php nghin cu s dng cc trng hp tng t .................................................35 A.1.4. Nhm phng php chuyn gia ...............................................................................................................36 A.2. Tiu ch v thng tin s dng trong nh gi tc ng ca bin i kh hu theo ngnh, lnh vc.................................................................................................................................36 A.3. Phng php v cng c nh gi tc ng ca bin i kh hu n lnh vc ti nguyn nc ................................................................................................................................36 A.4. Phng php v cng c nh gi tc ng ca bin i kh hu n lnh vc nng nghip.......................................................................................................................................42 A.5. Phng php v cng c nh gi tc ng ca bin i kh hu n lnh vc y t, sc khe cng ng .................................................................................................................42 A.6. Phng php v cng c nh gi tc ng ca bin i kh hu n lnh vc giao thng v h tng k thut ......................................................................................................53 A.7. Phng php v cng c nh gi tc ng ca bin i kh hu n lnh vc cp thot nc...................................................................................................................................53 A.8. Phng php v cng c nh gi tc ng ca bin i kh hu n quy hoch v pht trin th ......................................................................................................................53 A.9 Phng php v cng c nh gi tc ng ca bin i kh hu n lnh vc nng lng ...................53 Ph lc B ...........................................................................................................................................................................57 B.1. Cc gii php thch ng trong lnh vc ti nguyn nc ................................................................................57 B.2. Cc gii php thch ng trong lnh vc nng nghip........................................................................................57 B.3. Cc gii php thch ng trong lnh vc y t sc khe cng ng...................................................................61 B.4. Cc gii php thch ng trong lnh vc giao thng v h tng k thut.......................................................61 B.5. Cc gii php thch ng trong lnh vc quy hoch xy dng v pht trin th .....................................61 B.6. Cc gii php thch ng trong lnh vc nng lng..........................................................................................61 B.7. Cc gii php thch ng theo vng min.............................................................................................................61

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Cc s
S 3.1. Quy trnh Lp k hoch ng ph vi bin i kh hu...............................................................................10 S 3.2. Quy trnh nh gi tc ng ca bin i kh hu......................................................................................11 S 3.3. V d v cc t hp kch bn bin i kh hu v kch bn pht trin....................................................18 S 4.1. Quy trnh Xc nh cc gii php thch ng vi bin i kh hu............................................................22

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Cc bng biu
Bng 2.1. Mt s v d v tc ng ca bin i kh hu............................................................................................... 6 Bng 2.2. Cc ngnh v i tng chu tc ng ca bin i kh hu phn loi theo vng a l........................ 7 Bng 3.1. Cc loi phm vi khng gian trong nh gi tc ng bin i kh hu................................................13 Bng 3.2. Cc thng tin, s liu cn thu thp cho nh gi tc ng ca bin i kh hu ................................14 Bng 3.3. Ni dung nh gi tc ng ca bin i kh hu, nc bin dng........................................................16 Bng 3.4. V d v Ma trn nh gi tc ng, ri ro v kh nng d b tn thng cho lnh vc c s h tng .......................................................................................................................................................17 Bng 3.5. V d v Ma trn nh gi tc ng, ri ro v kh nng d b tn thng theo nhm x hi...........17 Bng 3.6. Cc thc o nh tnh xc nh ri ro do tc ng ca bin i kh hu......................................18 Bng 3.7. Cc thc o nh tnh xc nh kh nng d b tn thng.............................................................18 Bng 4.1. M t cc gii php thch ng.........................................................................................................................23 Bng 4.2. V d v Ma trn phn tch chi ph v li ch...............................................................................................24 Bng 4.3. V d v Ma trn phn tch a mc tiu.......................................................................................................25 Bng A1. Cc tiu ch v thng tin dng trong nh gi tc ng bin i kh hu phn loi theo lnh vc.....................................................................................................................................37 Bng A1. Cc tiu ch v thng tin dng trong nh gi tc ng bin i kh hu phn loi theo lnh vc (tip)..........................................................................................................................38 Bng A1. Cc tiu ch v thng tin dng trong nh gi tc ng bin i kh hu phn loi theo lnh vc (tip)..........................................................................................................................39 Bng A2. Cc phng php nh gi tc ng ca bin i kh hu n lnh vc ti nguyn nc.................40 Bng A2. Cc phng php nh gi tc ng ca bin i kh hu n lnh vc ti nguyn nc (tip)......41 Bng A3. Cc m hnh s dng cho nh gi tc ng bin i kh hu n ngun nc v cht lng nc.............................................................................................................................................41 Bng A4. V d v i tng nh gi tc ng ca bin i kh hu n ti nguyn nc TP.HCM .......42 Bng A5. Cc phng php nh gi tc ng ca bin i kh hu n lnh vc trng trt............................43 Bng A6. Cc phng php nh gi tc ng ca bin i kh hu n lnh vc chn nui............................44 Bng A7. Cc phng php nh gi tc ng ca bin i kh hu n lnh vc thy sn...............................45 Bng A8. Cc phng php nh gi tc ng ca bin i kh hu n lnh vc sc khe cng ng v y t................................................................................................................................................46 Bng A9. Cc phng php nh gi tc ng ca bin i kh hu n lnh vc giao thng...........................47 Bng A9. Cc phng php nh gi tc ng ca bin i kh hu n lnh vc giao thng (tip) ...............48

Bng A10. Cc phng php nh gi tc ng ca bin i kh hu n mng li cp thot nc................49 Bng A11. Cc phng php nh gi tc ng ca bin i kh hu n t ai v quy hoch s dng t th..........................................................................................................................50 Bng A12. V d v nh gi tc ng ca ngp lt do bin i kh hu n t th Thnh ph H Ch Minh theo phng php chng lp bn .............................................................51 Bng A12. V d v nh gi tc ng ca ngp lt do bin i kh hu n t th Thnh ph H Ch Minh theo phng php chng lp bn (tip)..................................................52 Bng A13. Cc phng php nh gi tc ng ca bin i kh hu n pht trin cng nghip v dch v th..........................................................................................................................54 Bng A14. Cc phng php nh gi tc ng ca bin i kh hu n lnh vc nng lng..........................55 Bng B1. Cc gii php thch ng vi bin i kh hu trong lnh vc ti nguyn nc ....................................58 Bng B2. Cc gii php thch ng vi bin i kh hu trong lnh vc trng trt ...............................................59 Bng B3. Cc gii php thch ng vi bin i kh hu trong lnh vc chn nui ...............................................60 Bng B4. Cc gii php thch ng vi bin i kh hu trong lnh vc thy sn...................................................60 Bng B5. Mt s gii php thch ng vi bin i kh hu trong lnh vc y t sc khe cng ng.................63 Bng B6. Cc gii php thch ng vi bin i kh hu trong lnh vc giao thng ..............................................64 Bng B6. Cc gii php thch ng vi bin i kh hu trong lnh vc giao thng (tip)....................................65 Bng B7. Cc gii php thch ng vi bin i kh hu trong lnh vc cp thot nc.......................................66 Bng B8. Mt s gii php thch ng vi bin i kh hu trong lnh vc quy hoch t ai v s dng t th.........................................................................................................................................67 Bng B9. Mt s gii php thch ng vi bin i kh hu trong lnh vc cng nghip v dch v...................68 Bng B10. Mt s bin php thch ng vi bin i kh hu trong lnh vc nng lng......................................69 Bng B11. Cc gii php k thut nhm thch ng vi bin i kh hu trong lnh vc nng lng .................70 Bng B12. Cc gii php thch ng tng hp cho cc vng, min..............................................................................71 Bng B12. Cc gii php thch ng tng hp cho cc vng, min (tip)...................................................................72

xi

Danh mc t vit tt
ADB Asia Development Bank (Ngn hng Pht trin chu ) ATN BKH CBCC CSAG DRAGON GDEM GDP IMHEN p thp nhit i Bin i kh hu Capacity Building on Climate change Project Vit Nam, nhm gim nh tc ng v kim sot pht thi kh nh knh Nhm Phn tch cc H thng kh hu, i hc Cape Town Delta Research and Global Observation Network (Mng li Nghin cu ng bng v Quan trc Ton cu) M hnh s cao ton cu Tng sn phm quc ni Vietnam Institute of Meteorology, Hydrology and Environment (Vin Khoa hc Kh tng Thy vn v Mi trng)

D n Tng cng nng lc quc gia ng ph vi bin i kh hu

IPCC y ban lin chnh ph v bin i kh hu IRRI NASA PTNT SEA START SEI TNMT TP TP HCM UNDP Vin Nghin cu la quc t C quan Hng khng v tr M Pht trin Nng thn Trung tm vng ng Nam ca H thng o to, Nghin cu v Phn tch s thay i ton cu Vin Mi trng Stockholm Ti nguyn v Mi trng Thnh ph Thnh ph H Ch Minh United Nations Development Programme (Chng trnh Pht trin Lin Hp Quc)

Chng 1 M u
1.1. Cn c xy dng Hng dn k thut
Theo Chng trnh mc tiu quc gia ng ph vi bin i kh hu c Th tng Chnh ph ph duyt ti Quyt nh s 158/2008/Q-TTg ngy 02 thng 12 nm 2008 th vic xy dng k hoch hnh ng ng ph vi bin i kh hu (BKH) l mt trong nhng nhim v quan trng ca cc B, ngnh v a phng. xy dng thnh cng cc k hoch hnh ng, cc tnh/thnh ph (sau y gi tt l tnh/thnh) cn phi thc hin mt s ni dung cng vic quan trng: (1) nh gi tc ng v kh nng tn thng do bin i kh hu v (2) Xc nh cc gii php ng ph ph hp. Hin nay, phc v cho cng tc xy dng k hoch hnh ng ca cc B, ngnh v a phng, B Ti nguyn v Mi trng (TNMT) ban hnh Khung Hng dn xy dng k hoch hnh ng ng ph vi bin i kh hu cho cc B, ngnh v a phng (sau y gi tt l Khung hng dn) vo nm 2009. Ti liu ny phn no gip cc nh hoch nh chnh sch v cn b ph trch, nhng ngi lin quan n cc hot ng bin i kh hu c ci nhn tng quan v k hoch hnh ng thch ng vi bin i kh hu. Tuy nhin thc t cho thy cn c mt hng dn chi tit hn v cc phng php nh gi tc ng ca bin i kh hu v xc nh gii php thch ng c th. Xut pht t thc t trn, Vin Khoa hc Kh tng Thy vn v Mi trng c B Ti nguyn v Mi trng giao xy dng ti liu Hng dn k thut v phng php nh gi tc ng ca BKH v xc nh cc gii php thch ng. D n Tng cng nng lc quc gia ng ph vi bin i kh hu Vit Nam, nhm gim nh tc ng v kim sot pht thi kh nh knh (CBCC) do Vin Khoa hc Kh tng Thy vn v Mi trng ch tr thc hin vi s ti tr ca UNDP phi hp vi cc chuyn gia t vn trin khai xy dng ti liu hng dn ny nhm h tr thc hin cc phn 2.4 v 2.5 ca Khung hng dn xy dng k hoch hnh ng ng ph vi bin i kh hu cho cc B, ngnh v a phng. Yu cu t ra l Hng dn K thut phi d hiu, d s dng, ph hp vi thc t Vit Nam v nhu cu cng vic ca cc c nhn/c quan , ang v s thc hin cc nhim v lin quan n ng ph vi bin i kh hu cp tnh. Bn Hng dn ny s l mt trong nhng ti liu tham kho quan trng cho vic chun b k hoch hnh ng ng ph vi bin i kh hu 1.

1.2. Phm vi ng dng ca Hng dn k thut

Bn Hng dn k thut ny c bin son cho cc i tng ch yu sau: - Cc c quan, n v v c nhn c nhim v tham gia trc tip hoc gin tip vo vic xy dng, thc hin, gim st hay iu phi k hoch hnh ng thch ng vi bin i kh hu cp tnh/thnh; - Cc c quan, n v, c nhn chu trch nhim qun l nh nc c cng vic hng ngy c lin quan n bin i kh hu (v d: Ti nguyn nc, thy in, giao thng thy, nui trng v nh bt thy sn, nng nghip). Hng dn k thut ny gip cho cc n v c nhn thuc cc t chc nh nc, phi chnh ph v t nhn: - T chc thc hin nh gi tc ng ca bin i kh hu cp tnh/thnh; - Sp xp th t quan trng ca cc tc ng ca bin i kh hu u tin xem xt; - Xc nh cc gii php thch ng vi bin i kh hu; - Chn la gii php thch ng ph hp. Khung thi gian p dng cho nh gi tc ng v nh gi tn thng thng thng l 20 nm. Khung thi gian ny ph hp vi cc nh hng pht trin kinh t x hi ca cc tnh/thnh. Hng dn k thut ny m t cch tip cn, phng php, cc bc thc hin v mt s v d in hnh v nh gi
1 Mt s ti liu, s liu, hnh nh c s dng trong Hng dn c trch dn t cc ti liu c cng b.

2 tc ng ca bin i kh hu v xc nh gii php thch ng cho cc tnh/thnh. Hng dn cung cp ci nhn tng th v cc phng php ang c s dng trong nh gi tc ng ca bin i kh hu cng nh nhng im yu, im mnh v phm vi ng dng ca tng phng php. Da vo cc cn b, chuyn gia c th chn la phng php ph hp nht vi iu kin v lnh vc u tin ca a phng mnh. Cc tiu ch quan trng chn phng php nh gi tc ng bao gm yu cu d liu, mc chi tit ca kt qu, chi ph, thi gian, nng lc v nhu cu chuyn gia. c th p dng c Hng dn ny trong thc t, ngi s dng cn c s h tr ca cc chuyn gia v c tp hun v cc phng php nh gi c cp trong ti liu ny. bin i kh hu, hoc khng co kha nng thich ng vi nhng tac ng bt li cua bin i kh hu. Kich ban bin i kh hu la gia inh co c s khoa hoc v s tin trin trong tng lai cua cac mi quan h gia kinh t - xa hi, phat thai khi nha kinh, bin i kh hu va mc nc bin dng. Lu y rng, kich ban bin i kh hu khac vi d bao thi tit va d bao khi hu la no chi a ra quan im v mi rang buc gia phat trin kinh t - xa hi va h thng khi hu. Nc bin dng la s dng mc nc cua ai dng trn toan cu, trong o khng bao gm triu, nc dng do bao,.. Nc bin dng tai mt vi tri nao o co th cao hn hoc thp hn so vi trung binh toan cu vi co s khac nhau v nhit cua ai dng va cac yu t khac. Hoat ng u tin la nhng hoat ng cp bach ma nu tri hoan thc hin se lam gia tng tinh d bi tn thng hoc se tiu tn nhiu chi phi hn v sau nay. Tch hp/ Lng ghp/ Kt hp/ Ho hp vn bin i kh hu vao cc k hoach pht trin (Mainsteaming/Integration) la hoat ng iu chinh, b sung k hoach phat trin, bao gm chu trng, chinh sach, c ch, t chc co lin quan n vic thc hin k hoach phat trin, cac nhim vu va san phm cua k hoach cung nh cac phng tin, iu kin thc hin k hoach phat trin cho phu hp vi xu th bin i kh hu, cac hin tng khi hu cc oan va nhng tac ng trc mt va lu dai cua chung i vi k hoach phat trin. nh gi tc ng do bin i kh hu l nghin cu xc nh cc nh hng ca bin i kh hu ln mi trng v cc hot ng kinh t x hi ca a phng. Ngoi cc nh hng bt li cn c th c cc nh hng c li. nh gi tc ng ca bin i kh hu cng bao gm vic xc nh v nh gi cc gii php thch ng vi bin i kh hu. nh gi tn thng do bin i kh hu l nh gi mc d b nh hng ca mt (cc) i tng (cc cng ng, khu vc, nhm ngi hoc hot ng kinh t - x hi/ngnh) di tc ng ca bin i kh hu. Mc d b tn thng ca mt i tng khng ch ph thuc vo bn cht ca bin i kh hu m cn ph thuc vo kh nng thch ng ca i tng . Kt qu nh gi tn thng c th c th hin trn ma trn hoc cc bn tn thng ch ra cc vng/khu vc v nhm dn c c kh nng d b tn thng cao do bin i kh hu.

1.3. Gii thch thut ng

Thi tit la trang thai khi quyn tai mt ia im nht inh c xac inh bng t hp cac yu t: Nhit , ap sut, m, tc gio, ma, Kh hu thng c inh nghia la trung binh theo thi gian cua thi tit (thng la 30 nm). Bin i kh hu (BKH) l s bin i trng thi ca kh hu so vi trung bnh v/hoc dao ng ca kh hu duy tr trong mt khong thi gian di, thng l vi thp k hoc di hn. Bin i kh hu c th l do cc qu trnh t nhin bn trong hoc cc tc ng bn ngoi, hoc do hot ng ca con ngi lm thay i thnh phn ca kh quyn. Bao gm c trong khai thac s dung t. ng ph vi bin i kh hu (Response/Coping) la cac hoat ng cua con ngi nhm thich ng va giam nhe cac tac nhn gy ra bin i kh hu. Thch nghi/ Thch ng/ Thch hp vi bin i kh hu (Adaptation) la s iu chinh h thng t nhin hoc con ngi i vi hoan canh hoc mi trng thay i, nhm muc ich giam kha nng bi tn thng do bin i kh hu va tn dung cac c hi do no mang lai. Giam nhe bin i kh hu (Mitigation) la cac hoat ng nhm giam mc hoc cng phat thai khi nha kinh. Tnh tn thng/ Kha nng (bi) tn thng (Vulnerability) do tac ng cua bin i kh hu la mc ma mt h thng (t nhin, xa hi, kinh t) co th bi tn thng do

Chng 1: M u 3

1.4. Cu trc Hng dn k thut

Hng dn k thut ny c chia thnh 4 chng chnh v kt lun. - Chng 1: Gii thiu tng quan v xut pht im, mc ch, phm vi s dng v cc thut ng chnh c s dng trong Hng dn k thut; - Chng 2: Trnh by tng quan v tc ng ca bin i kh hu Vit Nam, c im ca tc ng bin i kh hu cho cc vng a l tiu biu, cc ngnh c th chu tc ng nng n ca bin i kh hu cn c u tin nh gi tc ng bin i kh hu; - Chng 3: Trnh by phng php tin hnh nh gi tc ng ca bin i kh hu v kh nng d b

tn thng. Chng ny m t cch tip cn, cc bc v ni dung nh gi tc ng ca bin i kh hu. Cc cng c thng c s dng nh gi tc ng ca bin i kh hu lit k trong Ph lc A; - Chng 4: Trnh by phng php xc nh v la chn cc gii php thch ng vi bin i kh hu cho cc ngnh v nhm i tng c kh nng d b tn thng cao. Chng ny trnh by cch tip cn, quy trnh v cc cng c nh gi hiu qu v s ph hp ca cc gii php thch ng. Cc gii php thch ng tiu biu cho cc ngnh v vng a l c lit k trong Ph lc B; - Kt lun: Tm tt ni dung ca Hng dn v nu ln cc im, cc nhm thc hin nh gi tc ng bin i kh hu cn lu .

Chng 2 Tng quan v tc ng ca bin i kh hu

2.1. Cc tc ng chnh ca bin i kh hu
Theo Kch bn bin i kh hu, nc bin dng cho Vit Nam (B TNMT, thng 6 nm 2009) cc biu hin chnh ca bin i kh hu bao gm s tng nhit ton cu, s thay i v lng ma v nc bin dng. Mc thay i ca nhit , lng ma v nc bin dng ng vi cc kch bn pht thi thp (B1), pht thi trung bnh (B2) v pht thi cao (A1FI) cho cc vng kh hu ca Vit Nam cng c m t chi tit trong ti liu ny (t mc 3.3.2 Cc bc nh gi tc ng ca bin i kh hu cho cp tnh_tr.31 n mc 3.3.2. - bc 4_tr.13). C 7 vng kh hu chnh l Ty Bc, ng Bc, ng bng Bc B, Bc Trung B, Nam Trung B, Ty Nguyn v Nam B. Nhng thay i v nhit , lng ma v nc bin dng do bin i kh hu s dn n cc tc ng v kinh t, x hi v mi trng. Cc tc ng c th l tc ng trc tip hay gin tip, tch cc hay tiu cc. Bng 2.1 di y trnh by mt s v d v cc tc ng ca bin i kh hu. 2.2.2. Vng ng bng Vit Nam c hai vng ng bng chnh l ng bng sng Hng v sng Cu Long. y l cc vng thp nn thng xuyn chu cc tc ng ca ng ngp. Vng ng bng Bc B v Trung B s chu nhiu tc ng ca bo v p thp nhit i, l lt v xi l trong ma ma v hn hn trong ma kh. Theo d tnh, trong tng lai, di tc ng ca nc bin dng th vng ng bng sng Cu Long s l khu vc b nh hng nng n nht . 2.2.3. Vng ni v trung du Vng ni v trung du Vit Nam c th c chia lm cc khu vc ch yu: Vng ni v trung du Bc B, vng ni Trung B v Ty Nguyn. Cc khu vc ny thng chu nh hng ca l, l qut v st l t; chy rng, hn hn (c bit l vng ni Bc B v Trung B). Cc lnh vc: An ninh lng thc; Lm nghip; Giao thng vn ti; Mi trng/ti nguyn nc/a dng sinh hc; Y t, sc khe cng ng/cc vn x hi khc thuc vng ni v trung du Vit Nam c nguy c chu tc ng ng k ca bin i kh hu. 2.2.4. Vng th Vit Nam, cc th tp trung ch yu dc theo vng ven bin v cc vng ng bng. Cc th trn min ni v trung du c quy m khng ln, tuy nhin cc th ny li gi mt vai tr quan trng trong mng li th quc gia. V c bn, cc th nm trong vng no s chu nhng tc ng tiu biu ca vng . Do hu ht cc th ln nm khu vc ng bng v ven bin nn nc bin dng, bo v l lt l nhng mi nguy hi nghim trng nht. Hu ht cc lnh vc kinh t x hi khu vc th u chu tc ng ca bin i kh hu. c bit, do th l trung tm kinh t vn ha chnh tr nn kh nng d b tn thng v thit hi v kinh t, x hi, mi trng, c s h tng... s ln hn. Cc cng ng c kh nng d b tn thng cng a dng hn do cc vn x hi th phc tp hn. Tuy vy, kh nng ng ph cc khu vc th lun cao hn cc khu vc nng thn do c mt bng chung v nhn thc cao hn, trnh v nng lc qun l, h thng h tng tt hn.

2.2. Cc tc ng ca bin i kh hu theo vng a l

Phn ny gii thiu v c im chnh ca tc ng ca bin i kh hu n cc vng a l tiu biu ca Vit Nam v cc ngnh/lnh vc cn tp trung nh gi tc ng mi vng (xem Bng 2.2). Cc vng a l c m t trong phn ny bao gm: Vng ven bin v hi o, vng ng bng, vng ni v trung du v cc khu vc th. 2.2.1. Vng ven bin v hi o Vng ven bin v hi o ca Vit Nam c th c chia lm 3 khu vc: Bc B, Trung B v Nam B. Cc khu vc ny thng xuyn chu nhiu tc ng ca cc hin tng lin quan n kh hu nh bo v p thp nhit i (c bit l vng Trung B); l lt v st l t (c bit l vng ven bin Bc B v Trung B). Bn cnh , vng ven bin l ni tp trung ca nhiu th v cc khu vc dch v nn hu ht cc ngnh v hot ng kinh t x hi , ang v s chu tc ng mnh ca bin i kh hu. Hai ngnh c kh nng chu tc ng mnh ca bin i kh hu trong tng lai vng duyn hi l du lch v thy sn.

Bng 2.1. Mt s v d v tc ng ca bin i kh hu

1. Bin ng v nhit (v d: Nhit tng vo ma nng, gim vo ma lnh, tng nhit cc i, tng s lng cc t nng c cng cao): - Tng lng bc hi v lm gim cn bng nc, lm trm trng thm tnh trng hn hn - Tng cc bnh truyn nhim, tng cc trng hp t vong v bnh mn tnh ngi gi - Gim nng sut v sn lng cy trng, vt nui (c th lm tng nng sut cy trng cho mt s vng nu c nc) - Tng p lc ln gia sc v ng vt hoang d - Tng nguy c chy rng - Tng nhu cu s dng in lm mt v lm gim n nh v tui th ca h thng cung cp in. 2. Thay i v lng ma (tng v ma ma, gim v ma kh) c th dn n: - Tng dng chy l v ngp lt - Tng kh nng sn xut thy in - Tng nguy c xi mn v st l t - Tng hn hn v xm nhp mn trong ma kh - Thay i h sinh thi lu vc sng v cc vng ngp nc 3. Tng cng v tn sut bo c th gy tc ng: - Tng ngp lt vng ven bin v ven sng - Tng nguy c tn tht v ngi, c s h tng v cc hot ng kinh t x hi - Tng nguy c tn ph cc h sinh thi ven bin 4. Nc bin dng c th gy ra: - Tng ngp lt vng ven bin v ven sng - Xm nhp mn su hn lm nh hng ti cc hot ng cung cp nc, nng nghip v nui trng thy sn - Gim kh nng tiu thot nc.

Chng 2: Tng quan v tc ng ca bin i kh hu 7

Bng 2.2. Cc ngnh v i tng chu tc ng ca bin i kh hu phn loi theo vng a l
Vng a l Vng ven bin v hi o Cc tc ng ca bin i kh hu - Mc nc bin dng; - Gia tng bo v p thp nhit i; - Gia tng l lt v st l t (Trung B) Ngnh chu tc ng ca bin i kh hu - Nng nghip v an ninh lng thc - Thy sn - Giao thng vn ti - Xy dng, h tng, pht trin th/nng thn - Mi trng/ti nguyn nc/a dng sinh hc - Y t, sc khe cng ng/cc vn x hi khc - Kinh doanh dch v, thng mi v du lch - Nng nghip v an ninh lng thc - Thy sn - Cng nghip - Giao thng vn ti - Xy dng, h tng, pht trin th/nng thn - Mi trng/ti nguyn nc/a dng sinh hc - Y t, sc khe cng ng/cc vn x hi khc - Kinh doanh dch v, thng mi v du lch - An ninh lng thc - Giao thng vn ti - Mi trng/ti nguyn nc/a dng sinh hc - Y t, sc khe cng ng/cc vn x hi khc - Cng nghip - Giao thng vn ti - Xy dng, h tng, pht trin th - Mi trng/ti nguyn nc - Y t, sc khe cng ng/cc vn x hi khc - Kinh doanh dch v, thng mi v du lch - Nng lng i tng d b tn thng - Nng dn v ng dn ngho ven bin - Ngi gi, tr em, ph n

Vng ng bng

- Mc nc bin dng; - Gia tng bo v p thp nhit i; - L lt v st l t (Bc B) - Xm nhp mn

- Nng dn ngho, - Ngi gi, ph n, tr em

Vng ni v trung du

- Gia tng l v st l t - Gia tng hin tng thi tit cc oan - Nhit gia tng v hn hn (Ty Nguyn v vng ni Bc B v Trung B)

- Dn c min ni, nht l dn tc thiu s - Ngi gi, ph n, tr em

Vng th

- Mc nc bin dng - Gia tng bo v p thp nhit i - Gia tng l lt v ngp ng - Nhit tng

- Ngi ngho: Thu nhp nhp, cng nhn - Ngi gi, ph n, tr em - Ngi lao ng - Ngi nhp c

Chng 3 Phng php nh gi tc ng ca bin i kh hu

3.1. Cch tip cn
nh gi tc ng ca bin i kh hu l vic xc nh cc nh hng do bin i kh hu. Cn ch rng ngoi cc nh hng bt li, bin i kh hu c th c cc nh hng c li. Hin nay c nhiu cch tip cn trong nh gi tc ng ca bin i kh hu. V d nh, theo y ban lin chnh ph v bin i kh hu (IPCC) th c 3 cch: Tip cn tc ng (impactapproach), tip cn tng tc (interactionapproach) v tip cn tng hp (integratedapproach). Mi cch tip cn c nhng im mnh v im hn ch ring. Vic la chn cch tip cn no ph thuc vo nhiu yu t khc nhau nh yu cu nh gi, phm vi, khung thi gian v ngun lc cho php. n gin ha, Hng dn xut cch tip cn nh sau: + u tin nh gi tc ng ca bin i kh hu thi im hin ti (ng vi cc iu kin kinh t, x hi, mi trng hin ti); + Sau nh gi tc ng ca bin i kh hu trong tng lai (ng vi cc kch bn bin i kh hu v iu kin kinh t, x hi, mi trng trong tng lai - theo khung thi gian nh gi); + nh gi tc ng ca bin i kh hu trong tng lai nn c thc hin theo cc kch bn bin i kh hu v nc bin dng khc nhau v cc kch bn pht trin kinh t x hi khc nhau ca a phng; + nh gi tc ng ca bin i kh hu cn c cp nht khi cc kch bn bin i kh hu v nc bin dng c cp nht hoc khi c cc iu chnh quan trng v chin lc, chnh sch, k hoch, quy hoch pht trin ngnh v pht trin kinh t x hi ca a phng; + nh gi tc ng ca bin i kh hu c th c thc hin theo ngnh, theo vng a l, theo ranh gii h sinh thi hay theo lu vc sng v.v... Trong khun kh ca mt k hoch cp tnh th cch tip cn nh gi theo vng a l v theo ngnh c khuyn ngh s dng. i vi mt tnh/thnh th mt nh gi tng th cho ton b a bn nn c thc hin trc. Trn c s , cc nh gi chuyn su s c thc hin cho cc ngnh trong tnh/thnh v cc khu vc c kh nng d b tn thng nht di tc ng ca bin i kh hu; + nh gi tc ng ca bin i kh hu cn c s tham gia ca cc bn lin quan a phng. Cng ng ng vai tr c bit quan trng trong nh gi tc ng ca bin i kh hu thi im hin ti; + Cc yu t v gii cn c xem xt trong qu trnh nh gi tc ng ca bin i kh hu.

3.2. T chc thc hin nh gi tc ng ca bin i kh hu

V mt t chc thc hin, nh gi tc ng ca bin i kh hu nn c thc hin bi mt T cng tc bin i kh hu ca a phng 1 (hay T son tho k hoch hnh ng theo nh xut trong Khung hng dn xy dng k hoch hnh ng) vi s h tr ca mt s chuyn gia. Vic nh gi cho tng ngnh cn phi c s tham gia ca chuyn gia a phng v cc chuyn gia am hiu v ngnh . Cc thnh vin ca T cng tc cn c tp hun trc khi tin hnh nh gi. T cng tc ny nn c iu phi bi S Ti nguyn v Mi trng (hoc Vn phng iu phi bin i kh hu ca tnh/thnh nu c) v bao gm cc chuyn vin k thut ca cc s, ban, ngnh lin quan a phng (cc s quan trng nht l S Nng nghip v Pht trin Nng thn, Xy dng, Giao thng vn ti, K hoch v u t, Ti chnh, Y t, Du lch, Cng nghip), Ban ch
1 Hng dn ny mc nhn rng t cng tc ny c thnh lp ngay t bc 1 ca quy trnh lp k hoch ng ph vi bin i kh hu. Cc nh gi mang tnh k thut chuyn su nh nh gi tc ng ca bin i kh hu n h thng thy vn nn do cc t chc t vn, chuyn gia thc hin. T cng tc ch tham gia vi t cch h tr, cung cp thng tin, nhn xt v hc hi.

10

S 3.1. Quy trnh lp k hoch ng ph vi bin i kh hu

1. Khi ng v chun b trin khai 2. Xc nh mc tiu ca K hoch hnh ng 3. Lp k hoch xy dng k hoch hnh ng 4. Thu thp thng tin v s liu iu tra c bn 5. nh gi tc ng ca Bin i kh hu 6. Xc nh cc gii php ng ph 7. Bin son d tho k hoch hnh ng 8. T chc ly kin ng gp 9. Ph duyt v cng b k hoch hnh ng ng ph vi bin i kh hu

huy Phng chng lt bo ca tnh/thnh, cc t chc x hi nh Hi Ch thp , Hi Lin hip Ph n, Hi Nng dn, Cc trng i hc, Trung tm nghin cu lin quan trn a bn. Do vic iu hnh mt nhm c quy m ln l kh phc tp, T cng tc nn phn thnh hai cp : T cng tc nng ct (bao gm cc thnh vin ca cc s, ban, ngnh, cc t chc quan trng v lin quan trc tip n vn bin i kh hu) v T cng tc m rng (bao gm tt c cc thnh vin nh nu trn). T cng tc nng ct s ng vai tr tham gia trc tip vo cc hot ng nh gi cn T cng tc m rng s ng vai tr h tr, cung cp thng tin, phn bin, nhn xt, gp cho nhm nng ct. Ngoi ra, vic nh gi tc ng, c bit l nh gi cho thi im hin ti nn c s tham gia ca ngi dn a phng, nhng cng ng cc khu vc d b tn thng. Nhng thnh vin ca cng ng s tham gia nh gi vi s h tr ca cc thnh vin nng ct ca T cng tc v cc chuyn gia v cn c tp hun v cch tip cn v phng php nh gi. Trc khi tin hnh nh gi, T cng tc nn xy dng mt k hoch chi tit. Cc thnh vin ca T nn c giao nhim v mt cch c th v r rng. Bn cnh thi gian lm vic c lp, cc thnh vin ca T cng tc

nn t chc cc bui lm vic nhm nh k tho lun v thng nht v cc vn ny sinh trong qu trnh nh gi. T cng tc nn t chc cc bui tham vn rng ri vi cc bn lin quan khi cn thit, nhm m bo cc kt lun ca nh gi tc ng v tnh d b tn thng l chnh xc v ph hp vi a phng.

3.3. Quy trnh nh gi tc ng ca bin i kh hu

3.3.1. V tr ca nh gi tc ng trong quy trnh lp k hoch hnh ng ng ph vi bin i kh hu Theo Khung hng dn xy dng K hoch hnh ng ng ph vi bin i Kh hu ca B, Ngnh, a phng ca B TNMT nm 2009, ni dung lp k hoch ng ph vi bin i kh hu bao gm cc bc t Khi ng v chun b trin khai n Ph duyt v cng b k hoch hnh ng ng ph vi bin i kh hu. Quy trnh lp k hoch ng ph vi bin i kh hu c th c tm tt trong S 3.1 : Hng dn k thut ny tp trung vo vic nh gi tc ng ca bin i kh hu v xc nh cc gii php thch ng, tng ng vi bc 5 v 6 ca S 3.1.

Chng 3: Phng php nh gi tc ng ca bin i kh hu 11

S 3.2. Quy trnh nh gi tc ng ca bin i kh hu

Bc 1: Xc nh cc kch bn bin i kh hu v nc bin dng Bc 2: Xc nh cc kch bn pht trin Bc 3: Xc nh cc ngnh v i tng u tin v phm vi nh gi Bc 4: La chn v phn tch cc cng c nh gi tc ng bin i kh hu Bc 5: nh gi tc ng do bin i kh hu, nc bin dng theo kch bn - nh gi tc ng n mi trng t nhin - nh gi tc ng kinh t x hi Bc 6: nh gi mc ri ro thit hi do cc tc ng ca bin i kh hu Bc 7: nh gi kh nng thch ng vi cc ri ro v kh nng d b tn thng

3.3.2. Cc bc nh gi tc ng ca bin i kh hu cho cp tnh nh gi tc ng ca bin i kh hu, Hng dn xut quy trnh vi 7 bc theo S 3.2 di y: Ni dung v cch thc hin tng bc cng vic c m t trong 7 bc di y: Bc 1: Xc nh kch bn bin i kh hu v nc bin dng - Kich ban bin i kh hu la gia inh co c s khoa hoc v s thay i trong tng lai cua cc biu hin kh hu nh nhit , lng ma, mc nc bin dng. Cc kch bn ny th hin mi quan h gia kinh t - xa hi, phat thai khi nha kinh, bin i kh hu va mc nc bin dng. - Kch bn bin i kh hu, nc bin dng chnh thc cho Vit Nam c B TNMT ban hnh vo thng 6 nm 2009 (xem Kch bn bin i kh hu, nc bin dng cho Vit Nam, B TNMT, 2009, 34 trang). Kch bn ny xt n cc kch bn pht thi thp, trung bnh v cao. Cc kch bn ny m t s thay i kh hu trong th k 21 so vi thi k 1980-1999 ca c nc v 7 vng kh hu chnh: Ty Bc, ng Bc, ng bng Bc B, Bc Trung B, Nam Trung B, Ty Nguyn v Nam B.

- Cc kch bn bin i kh hu, c bit l nc bin dng cho Vit Nam s c cp nht vo cc nm 2010 v 2015 theo l trnh c xc nh trong Chng trnh mc tiu quc gia ng ph vi bin i kh hu. Cc nh gi tc ng v kh nng b tn thng cn c r sot, cp nht khi cc kch bn ny c cng b. - Cc thng s kh hu c m t trong kch bn bin i kh hu chnh thc cho Vit Nam gm mc tng nhit trung bnh nm (OC), mc thay i lng ma nm (%) v mc nc bin dng (cm). Thay i nhit v lng ma cng c m t cho cc thi k trong nm bao gm cc thi k: Cc thng 12-2, thng 3-5, thng 6-8, thng 9-11. - p dng kch bn bin i kh hu cho cp tnh chng ta thc hin cc vic sau:
l

Xc nh cc thng s kh hu quan trng i vi ngnh v i tng nghin cu. V d nh s ngy ma trong thng hay s t nng c nhit cao hn 35OC c th c chn khi xem xt tc ng ca bin i kh hu n du lch. Chn kch bn bin i kh hu, nc bin dng cho a phng t kch bn quc gia (v d ly kch bn quc gia v bin i kh hu, nc bin

12 dng cho vng kh hu Nam B lm kch bn ca Thnh ph Cn Th).

l

Ty thuc vo yu cu v nng lc c th thc hin tnh ton chi tit ha b sung t cc kch bn c cng b chnh thc ca quc gia cho a phng.

ma v nhit ng vi cc kch bn pht thi Thp (B1), Trung bnh (B2) v Cao (A2) hay 3 kch bn v nc bin dng ng vi cc kch bn B1, B2 v A1FI nh gi. Bc 2: Xc nh cc kch bn pht trin - Cc kch bn pht trin1 l kch bn v pht trin tng th kinh t x hi ca tnh, thnh hoc pht trin ngnh, c xy dng t:
l l

- Kch bn bin i kh hu c tnh bt nh rt cao. Thc t cho thy cc m hnh kh hu khc nhau c th cung cp cc kt qu tnh ton v bin i kh hu vi chnh lch rt ln. Do vy, thay v da vo cc con s c th ca kch bn, chng ta nn da vo xu th (trend) v khong (range) ca cc bin s ca thay i v kh hu. - Cc kch bn bin i kh hu v nc bin dng do B TNMT cng b l cc gi tr trung bnh ca cc yu t kh hu (th d: Nhit trung bnh, lng ma bnh qun ma, nm). Cc yu t cc tr kh hu cha c cp (th d: S thay i ca nhit ti cao, ti thp, s ngy ko di ca cc t nng nng, cc t rt...). Trong cc kch bn v nc bin dng cng ch cp n s dng ca mc nc bin trung bnh, cha xt n cc yu t ng lc khc nh nc dng do bo, gi ma, triu, sng, dng chy t thng ngun... - Khi tnh ton cc tc ng ca bin i kh hu cho a phng, nn tnh ton b sung chi tit ha cc kch bn ny cho a phng. Cc m hnh thy vn, thy lc c p dng cung cp nhng thng tin u vo quan trng cho vic nh gi tc ng ca bin i kh hu cho mt tnh, thnh ph nh s thay i v lng ma (theo kch bn bin i kh hu la chn), nc bin dng v cc yu t ng lc khc. Vic la chn v p dng cc m hnh thy vn v thy lc nn do cc n v t vn chuyn ngnh thc hin. - Trn c s cc kch bn trn, Hng dn ny xut la chn 3 kch bn bin i kh hu nh gi ng vi cc tnh hung Thp (thay i t), Trung bnh (thay i va phi) v Cao (thay i ln). Cc kch bn Cao l cc kch bn c th gy ra nhiu ri ro nht v c th l trng hp tc ng ng thi ca nhiu yu t (v d nh, bo, nc bin dng v ma ln cng xy ra). V d: ng vi khung thi gian nh gi chn (v d l nm 2050) chng ta c th la chn 3 kch bn v lng

Cc xu th pht trin trong qu kh; Cc nh hng, quy hoch, k hoch pht trin ca a phng trong tng lai; Cc nghin cu lin quan n xu hng pht trin ca a phng.

- Da trn cc thng tin u vo trn, T cng tc bin i kh hu tin hnh pht trin mt (hay mt s) kch bn pht trin ca a phng ng vi mc thi gian nh gi (gi nh l 2030). Mi kch bn cn m t v cung cp cc thng tin v tnh hnh pht trin vo nm 2030 c xt n mi tng tc gia cc yu t vn ha, kinh t, chnh tr, x hi. - Nu c 2 hoc 3 kch bn pht trin c xy dng th mi kch bn nn th hin mt xu th pht trin khc nhau. V d nh: Mt kch bn pht trin cao (tnh hnh pht trin vt mc d kin trong cc k hoch ca thnh ph); mt kch bn pht trin trung bnh vi nhiu thch thc (tng trng chm hn so vi d kin, c nhiu ro cn v kinh t, x hi, mi trng), v.v - cc kch bn c tnh thc t cao nht th vic xy dng cc kch bn cn c s h tr ca cc chuyn gia, s tham vn ca cc bn lin quan a phng. Bc 3: Xc nh cc ngnh, i tng u tin v phm vi nh gi - Cc ngnh v i tng u tin l cc ngnh v i tng cn tp trung nh gi tc ng ca bin i kh hu. l cc ngnh v nhm i tng nhy cm vi s thay i kh hu hoc c kh nng
1 Cc kch bn l nhng m t khc nhau v mt iu kin trong tng lai. khng phi l nhng tin on, m l nhng kh nng theo gi thuyt c xy dng da trn cc c s khoa hc, thng tin v d liu hin c.

Chng 3: Phng php nh gi tc ng ca bin i kh hu 13

Bng 3.1. Cc loi phm vi khng gian trong nh gi tc ng bin i kh hu

- Theo n v hnh chnh: Qun, huyn, thnh ph, tnh - Theo n v a l: Vng h, lu vc sng, vng ven bin, vng ca sng - Theo h sinh thi: m ph, rng ngp mn, vng t sa mc ha, vng nh hng triu - Theo vng kh hu: Sa mc, vng chu nh hng gi ma

thch ng km vi thay i kh hu. Do thi gian v ngun lc c hn, cc a phng cn u tin nh gi tc ng ca bin i kh hu ln cc ngnh v i tng ny. - Phm vi khng gian l gii hn ca vng thc hin nh gi tc ng. Phm vi khng gian thng c xc nh theo (1) mc ch nh gi, (2) cc s liu, d liu hin c, v (3) cc ranh gii hnh chnh, sinh thi, kh hu (xem Bng 3.1). Vic xc nh phm vi khng gian mang tnh cht tng i v khu vc c nh gi vn c tng tc vi cc khu vc ln cn. - Phm vi thi gian l gii hn cc khong v mc thi gian nh gi tc ng ca bin i kh hu. Phm vi thi gian c xc nh theo cc yu t chnh l (1) mc ch nh gi, (2) tin cy ca cc phng php tnh v (3) cc s liu hin c. Cn ch rng phm vi thi gian nh gi cng di tin cy trong vic c lng nhng s thay i trong tng lai cng gim. - Do vic nh gi tc ng cp tnh phi ly cc kch bn bin i kh hu quc gia lm c s trong khi mc chi tit ca cc kch bn ny cha cao, nn Hng dn ny xut cc a phng ly 2 mc thi gian l 2025 v 2040 nh gi. L do la chn 2 mc thi gian ny l: Th nht nm 2025 l thi im chng ta vn c th s dng cc thng s trong cc k hoch, quy hoch pht trin kinh t x hi ca a phng; th 2 nm 2040 l thi im khng qu xa v nhn thy nhng tc ng r rt ca bin i kh hu. - Cc ngnh v i tng u tin v phm vi nh gi c th c xc nh nh sau:

Tham kho cc nghin cu tng t v kin chuyn gia lit k s b cc ngnh v i tng cn tp trung nh gi cng nh phm vi khng gian v thi gian ca nh gi. (Cc nghin cu tng t bao gm cc nghin cu tc ng bin i kh hu, cc nh gi tn thng lin quan n i ngho v thin tai, nh hng pht trin kinh t, x hi ca a phng). Ly kin cc cc bn lin quan a phng ra quyt nh sau cng. C th s dng cc cuc hp, hi tho tham vn, phng vn thu thp kin.

Bc 4: La chn v pht trin cc cng c nh gi tc ng ca bin i kh hu - Cc cng c nh gi tc ng ca bin i kh hu bao gm cc phng php nh lng v nh tnh xc nh cc nh hng ca bin i kh hu, ri ro thit hi do tc ng ca bin i kh hu, kh nng thch ng v kh nng d b tn thng ca cc ngnh v cng ng. Cc cng c ny bao gm Ma trn nh gi, Bn tn thng, M hnh ton v.v Ph lc A gii thiu mt s cng c nh gi tc ng ca bin i kh hu cho mt s ngnh tiu biu nh ti nguyn nc, nng nghip, y t, giao thng, v qun l th. - Ma trn nh gi l cng c thng dng v hiu qu nht trong nh gi tc ng v kh nng d b tn thng do bin i kh hu, nc bin dng. Chi tit v phng php Ma trn nh gi c trnh by trong mc A1 ca Ph lc A. - Trong iu kin cc nh gi tc ng ca bin i kh hu cp tnh, thnh ph chng ta nn chn cc cng c hay m hnh c sn thay v pht trin cng c, m hnh mi. T cng tc chu trch nhim nh

14

Bng 3.2. Cc thng tin, s liu cn thu thp cho nh gi tc ng ca bin i kh hu

Cc kch bn bin i kh hu v nc bin dng, kt qu cc m hnh thy vn, thy lc Cc s liu kh tng thy vn trong qu kh, cc s liu thng k v thin tai v cc thit hi km theo trong qu kh Cc bo co tng kt v tnh hnh dn s, di c, thu nhp, ngn sch, cc dch v x hi, cc cng trnh cng cng, c s h tng, t l ngho i, t l tip cn vi nc sch, in v cc dch v x hi trong cc bo co thng k Cc s liu v kinh t, x hi, gio dc, mi trng Cc k hoch, quy hoch pht trin kinh t x hi, pht trin ngnh, pht trin khng gian th ca a phng Cc d n, chng trnh pht trin quan trng v ang v s thc hin trn a bn tnh/thnh ph bao gm c cc d n lin quan n mi trng, phng chng thin tai v bin i kh hu Cc chnh sch, chin lc pht trin ca a phng Cc nghin cu lin quan n bin i kh hu, phng trnh v qun l thin tai c thc hin a phng Cc kinh nghim v nh gi tc ng v kh nng d b tn thng do bin i kh hu

gi cn tham kho cc nghin cu c sn, cc chuyn gia, cc vin nghin cu, cng ty t vn v cc t chc quc t hc hi kinh nghim v k tha cc kt qu, m hnh thnh cng lm c s chn la cng c nh gi thch hp. - Tiu chun la chn cc cng c nh gi tc ng l:
l

- Cc thng tin s liu cn thit cho nh gi tc ng ca bin i kh hu l rt nhiu v c thu thp t nhiu ngun khc nhau (xem Bng 3.2). Bc 5: nh gi tc ng ca bin i kh hu, nc bin dng theo kch bn - nh gi tc ng ca bin i kh hu v kh nng d b tn thng do bin i kh hu nn thc hin cho thi im hin ti v trong tng lai (ng vi khung thi gian c xc nh Bc 3). - Ni dung nh gi tc ng ca bin i kh hu bao gm: nh gi tc ng n mi trng t nhin v nh gi tc ng n kinh t - x hi. Hng dn xut cc ni dung nh gi nh lit k trong Bng 3.3. Chi tit v cc lnh vc cn xem xt nh gi tc ng ca bin i kh hu theo tng ngnh c th tham kho thm trong Ph Lc A. - nh gi tc ng ca bin i kh hu hin ti c thc hin nh sau:
l

p ng c mc tiu nh gi tc ng bin i kh hu ra, Cho kt qu vi chnh xc cn thit, Ph hp vi nng lc v thi gian cho php ca a phng.

l l

- Ngoi ra khi xem xt chn la cng c v m hnh cng cn quan tm n yu cu v s liu ca cng c, m hnh . Nu khng c y cc s liu yu cu hoc cht lng s liu km th cc sai s nh gi s rt ln d m hnh l hon ho. Cc vn cn t ra khi xem xt v nhu cu s liu ca m hnh l: Nhu cu s liu v d liu l g? Cc ngun s liu d liu hin c chy m hnh khng? C cn phi thu thp thm s liu khng? C thi gian v ngun lc thu thp cc s liu cn thit khng?

Xy dng cc Ma trn nh gi tc ng trong lit k cc him ha do bin i kh hu theo kch bn v Cc i tng chu tc ng s c nh gi. V d Bng 3.4 l Ma trn nh gi tc

Chng 3: Phng php nh gi tc ng ca bin i kh hu 15 ng ca bin i kh hu n cc lnh vc c s h tng v Bng 3.5 l Ma trn nh gi tc ng ca bin i kh hu n cc nhm u tin.
l

v nhm i tng ng vi tng t hp kch bn v ghi nhn kt qu vo Ma trn nh gi tc ng. Bc 6: nh gi ri ro do tc ng ca bin i kh hu, nc bin dng - nh gi ri ro l nh gi kh nng tn tht thit hi do tc ng ca bin i kh hu n cc lnh vc v cc nhm x hi. - Ri ro c xc nh t mc thit hi mi trng, kinh t, x hi (consequences) ca tc ng v kh nng xy ra (likelihood) tc ng . xc nh ri ro c th dng nhiu phng php nh tnh v nh lng khc nhau:
l

S dng cc phng php iu tra, phng vn, hi tho tham vn, hoc cc phng php nh gi khc (xem Ph lc A) xc nh cc tc ng ca bin i kh hu n cc i tng v ghi nhn kt qu vo cc tng ng ca Ma trn nh gi (xem Bng 3.4 v 3.5). Cc yu t cn xc nh l Tc ng g? Mc ca tc ng nh th no? Tc ng xy ra u, thuc khu vc no? V d nh nh gi tc ng ca ngp lt n c s h tng th phi dng cc m hnh thy vn, thy lc (v d NAM v MIKE11) nh gi xem mc ngp tng khu vc l bao nhiu, thi gian ngp l bao lu, c im ca tng loi cng trnh c s h tng l ra sao v.v trn c s mi a ra c mc tc ng c th.

nh lng: Cc m hnh kinh t do cc chuyn gia kinh t xy dng v thc hin nh tnh: Bng 3.6 gii thiu mt phng php o lng ri ro theo cc thc o nh tnh v thit hi v kh nng xy ra. Thc o thit hi c 5 bc: Khng ng k, Trung bnh, Quan trng, Nghim trng, Thm ha. Thc o kh nng xy ra c 5 bc: Hu nh khng, Kh xy ra, C kh nng, Nhiu kh nng, Hu nh chc chn. Ty theo s kt hp gia mc thit hi v kh nng xy ra ri ro s t Thp n Rt cao. i vi cc nh gi ri ro cp cng ng thc o ri ro s n gin hn khong 2-3 bc.

- i vi nh gi tc ng v tnh d b tn thng do bin i kh hu trong tng lai, chng ta cn xt n t hp cc kch bn bin i kh hu v cc kch bn pht trin. Cch tip cn ny l Phng php pht trin v phn tch kch bn. - Phng php Pht trin v phn tch kch bn l phng php xem xt tc ng v kh nng d b tn thng ng vi tng t hp cc kch bn bin i kh hu v cc kch bn pht trin khc nhau. Vi mc ch n gin ha ng thi vn m bo tnh a dng v y ca nh gi, thng thng ngi ta s dng v phn tch t hp ca 3 kch bn bin i kh hu v 3 kch bn pht trin ngha l c 9 trng hp nh gi: Kch bn bin i kh hu1 ng vi kch bn pht trin 1 (trng hp 1), ng vi kch bn pht trin 2 (kch bn 2), ng vi kch bn 3 (trng hp 3); kch bn bin i kh hu 2 ng vi kch bn pht trin 1 (trng hp 4), ng vi kch bn pht trin 2 (trng hp 5) v.v... Tuy nhin, ty vo kh nng v yu cu ca tng a phng, chng ta cng c th chn s trng hp nh gi t hn: V d nh 3 kch bn bin i kh hu v 2 kch bn pht trin (6 trng hp) hay 1 kch bn pht trin (3 trng hp). Xem v d v t hp kch bn trong S 3.3. - Sau khi xc nh c cc t hp kch bn, tin hnh nh gi tc ng ca bin i kh hu cho cc ngnh

- T cng tc thu thp kin nh gi ri ro ca cc bn tham gia (hoc kt qu thu c t m hnh) v ghi nhn kt qu vo Ma trn nh gi, v d Bng 3.4 v 3.5. Bc 7: nh gi kh nng thch ng v kh nng d b tn thng - nh gi kh nng thch ng l nhm r sot li cc thc tin, k hoch, phng n thch ng hin ti ca cc i tng nh gi c kh nng thch ng vi cc ri ro do bin i kh hu khng. - nh gi nng lc thch ng, cc bn tham gia tho lun v nh gi theo cc thang im nh tnh (c th bao gm 3 bc thp, trung bnh, cao - xem Bng 3.6). Cc cu hi hng dn vic tho lun nh gi l: c cc phng n ng ph vi cc tc ng d bo cha? Nu c th l phng n no? Ai

16

Bng 3.3. Ni dung nh gi tc ng ca bin i kh hu, nc bin dng

nh gi tc ng n mi trng t nhin - Mi trng t
l Xm nhp mn l Ngp ng l St l

- Mi trng nc
l Lng ma l Dng chy sng l Nc mt l Nc ngm l Bc thot hi tim nng l L lt l Hn hn l Xm nhp mn l Triu cng

- Mi trng khng kh - H sinh thi v a dng sinh hc

l H sinh thi trn cn l H sinh thi vng triu l H sinh thi di nc l Cc h sinh thi khc

- Mi trng bin nh gi tc ng n kinh t - Nng nghip - Lm nghip - Ng nghip, thy sn - Nng lng - Cng nghip - Giao thng vn ti - Xy dng - Du lch nh gi tc ng n x hi - Di dn - An ninh x hi - Bo tn di tch vn ha, lch s - Bo tn phong tc tp qun, v.v

Chng 3: Phng php nh gi tc ng ca bin i kh hu 17

Bng 3.4. V d v Ma trn nh gi tc ng, ri ro v kh nng d b tn thng cho lnh vc c s h tng

i tng Cc him ha do bin i kh hu theo kch bn Bo (tng cng v tn sut) Cc lnh vc b tc ng Tc ng Ri ro Nng lc thch ng Kh nng d b tn thng Tc ng Mc nc bin dng Ri ro Nng lc thch ng Kh nng d b tn thng

ng b ng st Hng khng H thng thot nc H thng cp nc C s h tng nng lng Cng trnh cng cng

Bng 3.5. V d v Ma trn nh gi tc ng, ri ro v kh nng d b tn thng theo nhm x hi

i tng Cc him ha do bin i kh hu theo kch bn Nhit (v d s t nng c nhit hn 35OC tng ln) Cc lnh vc b tc ng Tc ng Ri ro Nng lc thch ng Kh nng d b tn thng L lt (tng cng v tn sut) Tc ng Ri ro Nng lc thch ng Kh nng d b tn thng

Ngi gi Ph n Tr em Nng dn Ng dn Ngi nhp c, cng nhn H dn tc thiu s

18

S 3.3. V d v Cc t hp kch bn bin i kh hu v kch bn pht trin

Kch bn bin i kh hu 1 + Kch bn pht trin 1 Kch bn bin i kh hu 1 + Kch bn pht trin 2 Kch bn bin i kh hu 2 + Kch bn pht trin 1 Kch bn bin i kh hu 2 + Kch bn pht trin 2 Kch bn bin i kh hu 3 + Kch bn pht trin 1 Kch bn bin i kh hu 3 + Kch bn pht trin 2

6 trng hp nh gi ng vi t hp 3 kch bn bin i kh hu v 2 kch bn pht trin

Bng 3.6. Cc thc o nh tnh xc nh ri ro do tc ng ca bin i kh hu

Tn tht Thit hi Kh nng tc ng xy ra K. ng k Hu nh khng Kh xy ra C kh nng Nhiu kh nng Hu nh chc chn Thp Thp Thp Thp Thp Trung bnh Thp Thp Trung bnh Trung bnh Trung bnh Quan trng Thp Trung bnh Trung bnh Cao Cao Nghim trng Thp Trung bnh Cao Cao Rt cao Thm ha Thp Trung bnh Cao Rt cao Rt cao

Bng 3.7. Cc thc o nh tnh xc nh kh nng d b tn thng

Mc ri ro Rt cao Cao Trung bnh Thp Nng lc thch ng Thp Cao Cao Trung bnh Thp Trung bnh Cao Trung bnh Trung bnh Thp Cao Trung bnh Trung bnh Thp Thp

Chng 3: Phng php nh gi tc ng ca bin i kh hu 19 thc hin? u? C hiu qu khng? C thch ng vi ri ro theo nh nh gi cha? - Kh nng d b tn thng c xc nh t mc ri ro do tc ng ca bin i kh hu v nng lc thch ng. Nu ri ro thp v nng lc thch ng cao th kh nng d b tn thng l thp. Ngc li nu ri ro cao v nng lc thch ng l thp th kh nng d b tn thng s cao. - nh gi kh nng d b tn thng, tng t nh nh gi ri ro, cng c thu thp qua tham vn cc bn tham gia (hoc kt qu thu c t m hnh) v ghi nhn kt qu vo Ma trn nh gi. Cc thc o nh tnh nh Bng 3.7 c th c s dng nh gi kh nng d b tn thng vi bin i kh hu. - Cc khu vc d b tn thng cn c th c th hin qua cc Bn gi l Bn tn thng. - Khi tin hnh nh gi kh nng thch ng v kh nng d b tn thng, chng ta nn lu n cc trng hp c bit v tnh bt nh ca cc Kch bn thng qua cc Phn tch nhy v Phn tch ngng.
l

ny m kh nng d b tn thng c nhng thay i ln th i tng c xem l rt nhy cm vi thng s bin i kh hu ang nghin cu. Chng ta cn phi chun b mt lot cc gii php thch ng cho i tng .
l

Phn tch ngng l phn tch xc nh gii hn bin i kh hu m vt qu kh nng chng chu ca i tng ang nghin cu. V d, nu nhit trn 35OC ko di lin tc trong 4 ngy th tm s cht hay nu mc nc do l lt duy tr mc 50 cm trong 7 ngy th h thng ng b ti mt s v tr nht nh s b h hng.

Lu : - Vic cn nhc tt c cc yu t lin quan trong qu trnh nh gi l mt nhim v khng th. V th, nh gi cn ch r nhng yu t no c xt n, nhng yu t no cha c xt n, l do ti sao, nhng nh hng ca vic cha xt ti cc yu t ny ti kt qu nh gi l g v.v - Kt qu nh gi tc ng, ri ro, v kh nng d b tn thng s c s dng :
l l l

Phn tch nhy l phn tch s thay i ca kh nng d b tn thng ca i tng ang xem xt khi ta thay i ln ca cc thng s bin i kh hu. Nu khi thay i cc thng s

M t bn cht v mc ca ri ro; Xc nh nhu cu v thi im cn thch ng; M t bn cht ca cc gii php thch ng.

Chng 4. Xc nh cc gii php thch ng vi bin i kh hu

4.1. Cch tip cn
- Mc tiu ca thch ng l nng cao nng lc thch ng v gim nh kh nng d b tn thng do tc ng bin i kh hu, gp phn duy tr cc hot ng kinh t x hi ca a phng tin n pht trin bn vng. - Cc k hoch thch ng v vy l cc gii php gp phn nng cao nng lc thch ng ca cc cng ng v cc hot ng kinh t theo 3 nh hng nh sau:
l

- Khi xc nh cc gii php thch ng cn xt n tnh bt nh ca cc kch bn bin i kh hu v kch bn pht trin. iu c ngha l ngi ta s chn cc gii php lun lm tng cng kh nng thch ng cho i tng u tin ngay c khi bin i kh hu khng xy ra, gi l cc gii php ng li ch (co-benefits). - Cc yu t v gii v cc vn gim ngho cn c lng ghp trong qu trnh xc nh cc gii php thch ng. - Thng cc gii php thch ng hiu qu u t nhiu da vo cc sng kin v kinh nghim a phng.

D phng: Cc gii php nhm chun b ng ph vi cc ri ro bin i kh hu; Bo v: Cc gii php nhm trnh cc ri ro bin i kh hu d bo, bo v nguyn trng; To sc chng chu: Cc gii php thch ng nhm tng sc chng chu ri ro ca bin i kh hu.

4.2. Quy trnh xc nh v chn la cc gii php thch ng

- Vic xc nh cc gii php thch ng c thc hin sau khi c kt qu nh gi tc ng ca bin i kh hu (xem S 3.1). Cc kt qu nh gi (bao gm cc tc ng c th xy ra, mc ri ro do cc tc ng gy ra, nng lc thch ng vi ri ro ca cc i tng v kh nng d b tn thng ca cc i tng) l mt phn thng tin u vo cho vic xc nh cc gii php thch ng. Cc thng tin u vo khc bao gm: Mc tiu v yu cu t ra cho cc gii php thch ng, cc gii php c sn, cc ngun lc v cc gii hn. - Mc tiu, yu cu, cc ngun lc v cc gii hn trong xc nh v chn la cc gii php thch ng c xc nh vi s tham gia ca cc bn lin quan bao gm chnh quyn, cng ng, doanh nghip, nh ti tr, v nhng ngi hng li. - Vic xc nh v chn la gii php thch ng c th c thc hin theo S 4.1 di y: Bc 1: Xc nh nhu cu thch ng - Xc nh nhu cu thch ng l tm ra nhu cu cn phi c gii php thch ng cho cc hot ng hay

- Cc gii php thch ng c th c phn loi theo phng thc thc hin:
l

Cc gii php v tng cng nng lc: Nng cao nhn thc, nng lc x hi, nng lc th ch; Cc gii php iu chnh: Can thip hoc iu chnh cc k hoch, chnh sch ang thc hin; Cc gii php cng ngh: a ra cc k thut, thit k mi; Cc gii php v c ch: Xy dng cc hng dn, tiu chun v th tc mi; Cc gii php u t c s h tng: Ti nh c, cung cp h thng cp thot nc, h thng iu; Cc gii php sinh thi: Bo tn v ci thin mi trng t nhin, phc hi v trng rng; Cc gii php kinh t: a dng ha hoc h tr cc ngun sinh k.

22

S 4.1. Quy trnh xc nh cc gii php thch ng vi bin i kh hu

Bc 1: Xc nh nhu cu thch ng Bc 2: Xc nh tiu ch chn la gii php thch ng Bc 3: xut cc gii php thch ng Bc 4: nh gi v chn la gii php thch ng u tin

i tng no? u? Khung thi gian thch ng l bao lu? - Xc nh nhu cu thch ng c thc hin bng cch phn tch kt qu nh gi tc ng v kh nng d b tn thng (Ma trn tn thng). Cc gii php thch ng cn c xy dng cho cc nhm c kh nng d b tn thng cao do tc ng ca bin i kh hu. - C kh nng cc kt qu nh gi tc ng bin i kh hu cho thy khng c nhu cu thch ng (khng cn b sung cc gii php thch ng) th iu c ngha rng khng c nhu cu thch ng. Trng hp ny xy ra khi cc cng ng c nng lc thch ng tt, hoc khi cc a phng v cng ng quan tm n cc mc tiu ngn hn, cp bch nhiu hn vn bin i kh hu, hoc thm ch do khi cc bn tham gia c nhn thc cha y v cc him ha ca bin i kh hu. Bc 2: Xc nh tiu ch chn la cc gii php thch ng - bo m cc gii php thch ng t c hiu qu mong mun cng nh s ng thun t pha cc bn tham gia v hng li, cc tiu ch chn la gii php thch ng phi c xc nh ngay t u vi s tham gia ca cc bn lin quan gm chnh quyn, cc nh ti tr, v cc bn hng li. - Cc tiu ch cho gii php thch ng bao gm cc tiu ch v kinh t v k thut nh cc gii php c sn (availability), chi ph hp l (costs), c tc dng (effectiveness), hiu qu (efificiency), kh thi (feasibility).

- Ngoi ra xt n tnh bt nh ca cc kch bn bin i kh hu v s gn kt cc hot ng thch ng vi cc chng trnh, k hoch pht trin khc ca a phng cn xt thm cc tiu ch c tnh chin lc hn, v d nh:
l

Tnh gn kt (synergies): Cc gii php xut gn kt c vi d n khc, cc k hoch, quy hoch, chnh sch pht trin ca thnh ph; khng gy tr ngi hay mu thun vi cc chng trnh hay k hoch hin c; Tnh a mc tiu (multiobjective): Cng mt gii php nhng ng thi t c nhiu mc tiu thch ng cng mt lc; Tnh linh hot (flexibility): Gii php d dng iu chnh, sa i khi cn hay khi c s thay i; Tnh hc hi (learning): Gii php xut c th hc hi kinh nghim t cc hot ng khc, ni khc v c kh nng nhn rng; Tnh chnh tr v x hi (political and social acceptance): ang c c hi thc hin c gii php; Tnh khng hi tic (no regret): Hiu qu ca gii php l tch cc i vi mi kch bn kh hu hay thm ch nu khng c thay i kh hu.

- Ni chung, c rt nhiu tiu ch chn la cc gii php thch ng, ph thuc vo u tin, chin lc, nh hng ca a phng v s chia s trch nhim ca cc bn lin quan.

Chng 4: Xc nh cc gii php thch ng vi bin i kh hu 23

Bng 4.1. M t cc gii php thch ng

Cc mc tiu STT Gii php Mi trng 1 2 Tn gii php Tn gii php Kinh t X hi Khc Kt ni Linh hot Tham gia Khng hi tic Khc Cc tiu ch

Bc 3: xut cc gii php thch ng - Da vo nhu cu thch ng (kt qu ca Bc 1) v cc tiu ch chn la (Bc 2), T cng tc a phng c th xut s b mt s gii php thch ng. C th tham kho thm cc gii php thch ng tiu biu cho mt s vng min v ngnh tiu biu, trnh by trong Ph lc B. - Trnh by thng tin v cc gii php thch ng xut: Cc thng tin cn thit bao gm cc c tnh ca gii php tng ng vi cc mc tiu thch ng ra v s p ng cc tiu ch chn la. Thng tin c th c trnh by di dng cc ma trn, bng biu lm c s cho vic nh gi chn la cc gii php ny (xem Bng 4.1). Bc 4: nh gi v chn gii php thch ng u tin C nhiu phng php xc nh v nh gi gii php thch ng. Bn hng dn ny s trnh by 2 phng php thng dng v n gin nht l Phng php phn tch chi ph- li ch v Phng php phn tch ma trn a mc tiu. 1. Phn tch chi ph - li ch - Phn tch chi ph li ch l mt trong nhng cng c cn bn c s dng nh gi hiu qu v kinh t ca cc hot ng can thip hoc u t. Trong trng hp s dng cho cc gii php thch ng vi tc ng bin i kh hu, phng php Phn tch chi ph li ch cung cp cc thng tin v chi ph v li ch ca cc gii php thch ng c xut lm c s cho vic so snh cc gii php ny. Cc chi ph v li ch ny i khi khng tnh

c bng tin v s c lng gi thng qua kin nh gi ca cc bn tham gia. - Chi ph ca cc gii php thch ng bao gm:
l

Chi ph trc tip nh chi ph trin khai thc hin, chi ph hot ng v chi ph duy tr trong sut thi gian thc hin gii php; Cc chi ph pht sinh trong tng lai c chit khu bng mt t l phn trm nht nh hng nm, c gi l t sut chit khu; Nhng chi ph khc. Nhng chi ph ny c th c phn loi thnh chi ph x hi v mi trng v cng cn c xt n trong qu trnh nh gi gii php thch ng vi bin i kh hu.

- Li ch ca gii php thch ng c tnh bng cc thit hi, tn tht c ngn chn, chng hn nh c s h tng v sinh k c bo v. Cc li ch cng bao gm c nhng li ch v x hi v mi trng. - Thng thng khi t sut chi ph li ch nh hn 1 ngha l chi ph ln hn li ch th bin php c nh gi l khng hiu qu. - i vi cc gii php quan trng, c quy m ln (v d nh vic xy , p) th cn thc hin cc nh gi v kinh t v m v ti chnh mt cch nghim ngt. - Phn tch chi ph v li ch c th l nh tnh hay nh lng hoc bn nh lng (mt s phn phn tch nh lng, mt s phn phn tch nh tnh). Mt phn tch chi ph li ch nh lng thu o i hi rt nhiu d liu (c th khng sn c) v

24

Bng 4.2. V d v Ma trn phn tch chi ph v li ch

Cc gii php thch ng Chi ph Kinh t X hi Mi trng Khc Tng chi ph Kinh t X hi Li ch Mi trng Khc Tng li ch T l li ch/ chi ph

1 2

cn nhiu ngun lc thu thp. Mt phn tch chi ph li ch nh lng cng cn n nhng tnh ton phc tp, c bit l cc gii php, d n lin quan ti cc vn kh hu. Vic la chn hng phn tch no ph thuc vo yu cu ca a phng, tm quan trng v quy m ca gii php, thi gian, nng lc, ngun lc cho php. Hng dn ny ch gii thiu phng php phn tch nh tnh v phn tch nh lng thng cn n cc chuyn gia trong ngnh. - Cc bc phn tch chi ph li ch
l

Bc 4: Xc nh mt quy c cho im cho cc chi ph v li ch c xc nh v gn cho cc chi ph v li ch ny mt im s. V d, mt chui im c gi tr t 1 n 10. Cc gi tr (con s) nh hn i din cho cc chi ph v li ch thp hn. Cc gi tr ln hn i din cho cc chi ph hoc li ch cao hn. Bc 5: Tnh tng chi ph v li ch ca tng gii php thch ng (theo im) sao xc nh t l li ch v chi ph (li ich/chi ph). Kt qu c in vo ma trn phn tch chi ph v li ch. Bc 6: So snh cc gii php thch ng cn c trn kt qu bc nm (gii php no c t l li ch/chi ph cao hn th c xp hng cao hn ngha l c kh nng tng cng nng lc thch ng cao hn, hiu qu hn). Bc 7: T chc tho lun nhm vi cc chuyn gia, cc bn lin quan v cc kt qu s b nhm r sot xem kt qu s b c ph hp vi thc t khng, c vn g cha c cn nhc n hoc cn nhc mt cch khng y khng. Kt qu tho lun ny ng vai tr quan trng trong vic quyt nh xp hng u tin cc gii php.

Bc 1: Lit k tt c cc gii php thch ng c xut v sng lc. Bc 2: Xc nh cc chi ph trin khai thc hin gii php bao gm c cc chi ph x hi v mi trng. Cc kt qu v cc chi ph trn cn c m t thay v ch th hin qua cc con s, v c xc nh thng qua cc tho lun ca nhm tham gia nh gi (v c th vi cc i tng lin quan). Cc chi ph v li ch v x hi v mi trng cn c cn nhc mt cch cn thn. Nhng kt qu trn s c in vo ma trn phn tch chi ph v li ch (xem Bng 4.2). Bc 3: Xc nh cc li ch mang li t gii php thch ng (li ch nh vo vic tn tht c ngn chn v nhng li ch v x hi v mi trng. Nhng kt qu ny s c in vo ma trn phn tch chi ph v li ch.

2. Phng php phn tch ma trn a mc tiu - Ma trn a mc tiu l cng c la chn v phn loi s b (sang lc) cc gii php thch ng khi vic la chn phi xem xt n nhiu tiu ch. Cng c ny c bit hu ch khi vic ra quyt nh c

Chng 4: Xc nh cc gii php thch ng vi bin i kh hu 25

Bng 4.3. V d v Ma trn phn tch a mc tiu

Cc tiu ch nh gi STT Cc gii php thch ng 1 2 3 Tiu ch 1 Tiu ch 2 Tiu ch 3 Tng im

thc hin trong iu kin cc thng tin u vo cha ng cc yu t khng chc chn. - Vic nh gi s p ng cc tiu ch nn c thc hin theo cch cho im. im s thp ng vi gii php thch ng c hiu qu thp v im s cao ng vi gii php thch ng c hiu qu cao hn. Nhn chung, vic cho im mt tiu ch th hin mc (tm) quan trng ca tiu ch trong vic tng cng kh nng thch ng ca cc i tng c kh nng d b tn thng. Vic cho im cn c cn c vo kin chuyn gia, kt qu tham vn cc bn lin quan, cc kt qu nghin cu, tnh ton. - Cc tiu ch nh gi v cc gii php thch ng (hay phng n) c sp xp trong mt bng (gi l Ma trn) bao gm cc ct v hng. Cc ct th hin cc phng n. Cc hng th hin cc tiu ch. Cc gi tr ti cc im giao gia ct v hng l cc gi tr ca gii php ng vi mi tiu ch. Gi tr nh gi (hiu qu) ca mt gii php l tng cc gi tr nh gi theo cc tiu ch ca gii php . Gii php thch ng no c tng im ln hn c coi l hiu qu hn (xem Bng 4.3). - Trong mt s trng hp, tnh kh thi v mt k thut l tiu ch quyt nh n vic la chn hay khng la chn mt phng n. - Cc bc phn tch Ma trn a mc tiu
l l l

cng ca ma trn v cc tiu ch nh gi vo ct bn tri ca ma trn phn tch. Bc 3: Xc nh mt quy c cho im cho cc gii php ng vi mi tiu ch. V d theo thang im t 1 n 5. Trong 1 l im th hin trng hp xu nht v 5 l tt nht. Bc 4: Tin hnh cho im theo thang im c la chn bc 2 cho mi gii php ng vi mi tiu ch. Trong mt s trng hp vic cho im cc gii php c th khng tun theo nguyn tc c xc nh bc 2. Chng hn cc gii php c tnh t ph, tnh mi hoc c hiu qu c bit. Bc 5: Tnh tng im ca mi gii php hng di cng ca ma trn phn tch. Cc gi tr ny th hin s phn loi theo im s ca mi gii php ng cc tiu ch nh gi. Bc 6: T chc tho lun nhm vi cc chuyn gia, cc bn lin quan v cc kt qu s b nhm r sot xem kt qu s b c ph hp vi thc t khng, c vn g cha c cn nhc n hoc cn nhc mt cch khng y khng? Vic cho im cc tiu ch khc nhau c nh hng th no n tng im ca cc gii php v xp hng u tin? C tiu ch no cha c xt n nhng li quan trng i vi a phng khng? Kt qu tho lun ny ng gp vai tr quan trng trong vic quyt nh xp hng u tin cc gii php.

Bc 1: Xc nh cc tiu ch nh gi. Bc 2: in cc gii php thch ng hng trn

Kt lun
nh gi tc ng ca bin i kh hu v xc nh cc gii php thch ng ph hp l cng on quan trng nht trong quy trnh lp k hoch thch ng vi bin i kh hu. Vi ngha , Hng dn ny gp phn quan trng vo vic h tr cho nhim v xy dng K hoch hnh ng ng ph vi bin i kh hu cho cc tnh, thnh ph trong khun kh ca Chng trnh mc tiu quc gia ng ph vi bin i kh hu. Hng dn ny cung cp cch tip cn, nguyn tc, quy trnh, cc bc thc hin nh gi tc ng ca bin i kh hu v cc gii php thch ng cho cc a phng, cng nh mt s phng php mang tnh cht nn tng nh Pht trin v phn tch kch bn, Phn tch chi ph v li ch, v.v... Bn cnh , Hng dn cng gii thiu s b cc phng php c th c s dng nh gi tc ng cho cc ngnh, lnh vc c th cng vi mt s v d minh ha. Tuy nhin, do gii hn v thi gian v ngun lc, ng thi y l mt ti liu p dng cho tt c cc tnh, thnh ph nn Hng dn khng th din gii chi tit tng phng php c th m ch gii thiu nhng phng php c bn nht, cc bc thc hin quan trng nht v nguyn tc chung, nhng iu cn lu . iu ny cng c l gii mt phn do mi a phng c cc yu cu nh gi, c im iu kin t nhin, kinh t, x hi ring v cc ngun thng tin sn c cng khc nhau. Ngoi ra c mt s im cn lu khi tin hnh nh gi tc ng ca bin i kh hu v xc nh cc gii php thch ng l: + S ng h v cam kt ca chnh quyn a phng, cch thc t chc thc hin, c ch giao trch nhim, iu phi v phi hp gia cc bn lin quan, cng tc chia s thng tin, tham vn v s tham gia ca cng ng l c bit quan trng trong qu trnh lp k hoch ng ph vi bin i kh hu. + Khi nh gi tc ng v xc nh cc gii php thch ng cn tnh n nhng trng hp khc nhau v s thay i kh hu v cc kch bn pht trin c th trong tng lai. nh gi tc ng ca bin i kh hu cho mt ngnh khng ch cn chuyn mn v bin i kh hu m cn cn s am hiu su sc v lnh vc , ngnh cng nh v tr a l, c im khc ca a bn ni m cc hot ng ca ngnh din ra. + nh gi tc ng ca bin i kh hu v xc nh cc gii php thch ng cn phi c cp nht khi c cc thng tin b sung v cc kch bn bin i kh hu v cc thay i quan trng v k hoch, nh hng pht trin ca a phng. + Khi tin hnh nh gi, chng ta cn tr li mt s cu hi quan trng sau: - T chc nh gi nh th no? Ai? C quan no cn tham gia nh gi? S tham gia mc no? Tham gia cng on no?

28

- i tng u tin nh gi l ai? Ngnh no? Khu vc no? - Phm vi (khng gian v thi gian) nh gi? - Cc bc thc hin nh gi v xc nh gii php thch ng? Nidung/hot ng cn nh gi? Tiu ch nh gi? - Cc phng php nh gi ph hp? - Cc yu t kh hu no tc ng ln i tng nh gi? Tc ng mc no? - Cc thng tin cn thit cho nh gi? Cc thng tin no c th thu thp c? Mc nh hng ca vic thiu thng tin khng c i vi kt qu nh gi l g? - Cc tc ng ca bin i kh hu i vi a phng l g? thi im no? Khu vc no? Mc th no? i tng no d b tn thng nht? V sao? - C cc gii php thch ng no? Th t u tin cc gii php thch ng? V sao li sp xp theo th t ?... Cui cng, phi tha nhn rng, mc d l mt bn Hng dn K thut, nhng c th p dng c trong thc t th ngi s dng, c bit l T cng tc bin i kh hu v cc bn tham gia vo hot ng nh gi ca a phng cn phi c tp hun mt cch bi bn, ng thi trong qu trnh nh gi phi c s h tr trc tip t cc chuyn gia. Do y l mt vn kh v kh mi m nn bn Hng dn chc chn khng trnh khi nhng thiu st. Vin Khoa hc Kh tng Thy vn v Mi trng, nhm thc hin v Ban qun l d n CBCC hoan nghnh cc kin phn hi t cc chuyn gia trong ngnh, cc bn lin quan v c bit l cc kin t cc a phng, da trn nhng kinh nghim thc t, bn hng dn ny c hon thin hn.

Kt lun 29

Ti liu tham kho

1. Ting Vit
1) B Ti nguyn Mi trng, 2010, Thng bo Quc gia ln th hai ca Vit Nam cho Cng c khung Lin Hp Quc v Bin i kh hu. 2) B Ti nguyn Mi trng, 2009, Chng trnh mc tiu quc gia ng ph vi bin i kh hu ti Vit Nam. 3) B Ti nguyn v Mi trng, 2009, Kch bn bin i kh hu, nc bin dng cho Vit Nam. 4) B Ti nguyn v Mi trng, Cng vn s 3815/ BTNMT-KTTVBKH ngy 13/10/2009 v Khung hng dn xy dng k hoch hnh ng ng ph vi bin i kh hu ca cc b, ngnh, a phng. 5) Quyt nh s 135/2009/Q-TTg ngy 04/11/2009 ban hnh Quy ch iu hnh thc hin Chng trnh mc tiu quc gia. 6) Vin Cng Ngh Chu ti Vit Nam, 2010, Phng php tin hnh nh gi tc ng ca bin i kh hu v xc nh cc gii php thch ng cp tnh. Sn phm ca Hp ng s 04/HKT/ CBCC ngy 24/06/2010 vi D n Tng cng nng lc quc gia ng ph vi bin i kh hu Vit Nam nhm gim nh tc ng v kim sot pht thi kh nh knh ca Vin Khoa hc Kh tng Thy vn v Mi trng. 7) 8) Vin Khoa hc Kh tng Thy vn v Mi trng, 2011, S tay bin i kh hu. Vin Khoa hc Kh tng Thy vn v Mi trng, 2010, Cc kch bn nc bin dng v kh nng gim thiu ri ro Vit Nam, Bo co tng kt d n hp tc vi an Mch. Vin Khoa hc Kh tng Thy vn v Mi trng, 2010, Tc ng ca bin i kh hu ln ti nguyn nc v cc bin php thch ng, Bo co tng kt d n hp tc vi an Mch.

10) Vin Khoa hc Kh tng Thy vn v Mi trng, 2010, Li ch ca thch ng vi bin i kh hu t cc nh my thy in va v nh, ng b vi pht trin nng thn, Bo co tng kt d n hp tc vi an Mch. 11) Vin Khoa hc Kh tng Thy vn v Mi trng, 2009, Tc ng ca bin i kh hu lu vc sng Hng v chnh sch thch nghi huyn Ph Vang, tnh Tha Thin Hu, Bo co tng kt d n hp tc vi H Lan. 12) Nguyn c Ng, 2008, Bin i kh hu. 13) Nguyn Vn Thng v nnk, 2010, Nghin cu nh hng ca bin i kh hu n cc iu kin t nhin, ti nguyn thin nhin v xut cc gii php chin lc phng trnh, gim nh v thch nghi, phc v pht trin bn vng kinh t x hi Vit Nam, ti KC08.13/06-10. 14) Trn Thc, Phan Nguyn Hng, 2009, Bin i khi hu va cac h sinh thai ven bin, sach chuyn khao, Nha xut ban Lao ng. 15) Trn Thc, Nguyn Xun Hin, Trn Hng Thai, Nghin cu anh hng cua mc nc bin dng do bin i khi hu n xm nhp mn khu vc ng bng sng Hng, Tap chi Khi tng Thuy vn,s 589, thang 1 nm 2010. 16) Trn Thc, L Nguyn Tng, Nhng tc ng ca bin i kh hu i vi nc ta, Tp ch Ti nguyn Mi trng, 4/2008. 17) Trn Thc, L Nguyn Tng, Bn v mt s bin php mi thch ng vi bin i kh hu, Tp ch Ti nguyn Mi trng, 2/2008. 18) Trn Thc, Hong Minh Tuyn v nnk, 2011, Tc ng bin i kh hu ln ti nguyn nc Vit Nam, Tp ch Nng nghip v Pht trin Nng thn. 19) Trn Thc, Dng Hng Sn v nnk, 2011, Tc ng ca nc bin dng ti Vit Nam t gc ri

9)

32 ro kinh t x hi. Tp ch Nng nghip v Pht trin Nng thn. 20) Trn Thc, Nguyn Vn Thng, Dng Hng Sn, Hong c Cng, 2011, Bin i kh hu v ng ph vi bin i kh hu Vit Nam - Nghin cu chi tit cho tnh Tha Thin - Hu. 21) Hong c Cng v Phm th Duyn, V phng php xy dng kch bn bin i kh hu cho khu vc nh, Tuyn tp bo co khoa hc ln th 10, Vin khoa hc Kh tng Thy vn v Mi trng. Trang 28-32. 22) L Anh Tun, 2010, Tc ng ca bin i kh hu v nc bin dng ln tnh a dng sinh hc v xu th di dn vng ven bin bn o C Mau, Hi tho khoa hc Bo tn cc gi tr d tr sinh quyn v h tr c dn vng ven bin tnh C Mau trc bin i kh hu. 23) Trn Vit Lin, Hong c Cng, Trn th Tho, 2005, Xy dng kch bn bin i kh hu cho lu vc sng Hng phc v pht trin bn vng v bo v mi trng, Hi tho khoa hc k nim ngy nc v kh tng th gii, thng 3 nm 2005, B Ti nguyn v Mi trng. 24) UNDP, 2005, Khung chnh sch thch ng vi bin i kh hu Xy dng chin lc, chnh sch v gii php. 4) Tran Thuc, Le Nguyen Tuong, Nguyen Van Thang, 2009, Viet Nam Final Country Report on Climate Change Impact and Adaptation, Paper Prepared for the Mekong River Commission. 5) ADB, HCMC PC and HCMC DONRE, 2009, Adapting to Climate Change in Ho Chi Minh City. Ho Chi Minh City. 6) Benestad, R., 2002, Empirically downscaled multimodel ensemble temperature and precipitation scenarios for Norway, Journal of Climate, 15:3008 3027 7) Blenckner,T. and D. Chen, 2003, Comparison of the impact of regional and north-Atlantic atmospheric circulation on an aquatic ecosystem, Climatic Research, 23:131136.

8) Carew-Reid, J., 2007, Rapid Assessment of the Extent and Impact of Sea Level Rise in Vietnam, Queensland, Australia, International Centre for Environmental Management - ICEM. 9) Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis, Contribution of Working Group I to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press. 10) Enke,W. and A. Spekat, 1997, Downscaling climate model outputs into local and regional weather elements by classification and regression, Climate Research, 8:195207. 11) Fawad, K., 2010, Cost benefit Analysis of Adaptation Strategies, City Resilience Planning 12) Giorgi, F., B. Hewitson, J. Christensen, M. Hulme, H. von Storch, P.Whetton, R. Jones, L. Mearns and C. Fu, 2001, Regional climate information evaluation and projections. In: J.T. Houghton, Y. Ding, D.J. Griggs, M. Noguer, P.J. van der Linden, X. Dai, K. Maskell and C.A. Johnson (eds.). pp. 583638. 13) Hahn, M. and A. Frode, 2010, Climate Proofing for Development- Adapting to Climate Change, Reducing Risk, published by GTZ, 38pp. 14) Heyden, H., E. Zorita and H.Von Storch, 1996, Statistical downscaling of monthly mean North Atlantic air-pressure to sea level anomalies in the Baltic Sea, Tellus, 48A:312323

2. Ting Anh
1) Thuc T., Thang N. V. and Cuong H. D., 2010, On the Development of Climate Change Scenarios for Vietnam, Proceedings, the Fifth APHW Conference on Hydrological Regimes and Water Resources Management in the Context of Climate Change, Hanoi. 2) Sub-institute of Hydrometeorology and Environment of South Vietnam, 2010, Climate Change in the Mekong Delta - Climate Scenarios, Sea Level Rise and other Effects. 3) Sub-institute of Hydrometeorology and Environment of South Vietnam, 2010, Research and Assessment of Water and Environment in Mekong River Delta: Living Environment, Ecosystem, Mangrove and Natural Preservation.

Ti liu tham kho 33 15) Heyden, H., H. Fock and W. Greve, 1998, Detecting relationships between interannual variability in ecological time series and climate using a multivariate statistical approach a case study on Helgoland Road zooplankton, Climate Research, 10:179191. 16) ICEM, 2008, Rapid Assessment of the Extent and Impact of Sea Level Rise in Viet Nam, Retrieved on June 2010 from website: www.icem.com.au 17) ICEM, 2009, Ho Chi Minh City adaptation to climate change Volume 2 - Main study report, Retrieved on June 2010 from ICEMs website: www.icem.com.au 18) IPCC (2007), Climate Change 2007: Synthesis Report Summary for Policymakers, Assessment of Working Groups I, II and III to the Third Assessment Report of the IPCC, Cambridge University Press. 19) James, T. (n.d.), Strategies for Adaption to Greenhouse Effect, Retrieved 09 11, 2010, from Greenhouse Effect and Sea Level Rise: America Starts to Prepare: http://papers.risingsea.net/JAPA/adapt.html 20) Jan F. Feenstra, Ian Burton, Joel B. Smith, Richard S.J. Tol., 1998, Handbook on Methods for Climate Change Assessment and Adaptation Strategies, Amsterdam: UNEP. 21) Kaas, E. and P. Frich, 1995, Diurnal temperature range and cloud cover in the Nordic countries: Observed trends and estimates for the future, Atmospheric Research, 37:211228. 22) Karen, M. and V.C. Toan, 2010, Simple MultiCriteria Analysis Matrix, City Resilience Planning Workshop, Asian Cities Climate Change Resilience Network Project, March 2010, Bangkok 23) Le Van Anh, 2010, Master thesis The Assessment of Impacts of Sea level rising on Master Plan in Ho Chi Minh City, Ho Chi Minh City University of Architecture 24) Martin, E., B.Timbal and E. Brun, 1997, Downscaling of general circulation model output: Simulation of snow climatology of the French Alps and sensitivity to climate change, Climate Dynamics, 13:4556. 25) Megumi MUTO, 2010, JICA-WB-ADB Joint Study: Climate Risks and Adaptation in Asian Coastal MegaCities, The Case of Metro Manila, Report in Bangkok 26) Omstedt, A. and D. Chen, 2001, Influence of atmospheric circulation on the maximum ice extent in the Baltic Se, Journal of Geophysical Research, 106(C3):44934500. 27) Schubert, S., 1998. Downscaling local extreme temperature changes in south-eastern Australia from the CSIRO MARK2 GCM, International Journal of Climatology, 18:14191439. 28) Smit et al., 2001, Adaptation to Climate Change in the Context of Sustainable Development and Equity, In M. C. (ed), Climate Change 2001: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. 29) Solman, S.A. and M.N. Nuez, 1999, Local estimates of global climate change: A statistical downscaling approach, International Journal of Climatology, 19:835861. 30) Stephen, T. and V.C. Toan, 2009, Development of City Resilient Strategy/Plan, Training material for city partners in the framework of Asian Cities Climate Change Resilience Network Project. 31) Sarah, O.S. and F. Liz, 2010, Climate Vulnerability Assessment, City Resilience Planning Workshop, Asian Cities Climate Change Resilience Network Project, March 2010, Bangkok 32) Stephen, T., 2010, Guidelines for Resilience Planning, City Resilience Planning Workshop, Asian Cities Climate Change Resilience Network Project, March 2010, Bangkok 33) The United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction, 2009, 2009 UNISDR Terminology on Disaster Risk Reduction, United Nation, Geneva. 34) Workshop, Asian Cities Climate Change Resilience Network Project, March 2010, Bangkok 35) World Bank, 2008, Climate Resilient Cities: A Primer on Reducing Vulnerabilities to Climate Change Impacts and Strengthening Disaster Risk Management in East Asia Cities, Washington, DC.

Cc ph lc Ph lc A. Cc phng php v cng c nh gi tc ng ca bin i kh hu theo ngnh, lnh vc

A.1. Phn loi cc phng php nh gi tc ng ca tin kim nh cc m hnh d bo tc ng ca bin i kh hu ln mi trng t nhin. bin i kh hu
Cc phng php nh gi tc ng v kh nng d b tn thng ca bin i kh hu bao gm cc phng php nh tnh v nh lng. Cc phng php ny c th c chia thnh 4 nhm chnh l cc phng php thc nghim, cc phng php ngoi suy, nghin cu s dng cc trng hp tng t v phng php chuyn gia. A.1.1. Nhm phng php thc nghim Phng php thc nghim thng c dng trong cc nghin cu y hc, vt l, ha hc, sinh hc. y l cc phng php chun kim tra cc gi thuyt hay nh gi qu trnh, nguyn nhn v nh hng thng qua vic lm th nghim trc tip. Trong nh gi tc ng ca bin i kh hu, cc phng php thc nghim c dng ch yu xc nh tc ng ca cc yu t kh hu v mi trng (nhit , lng ma, mn v ngp do nc bin dng v.v) n cc i tng nghin cu (nng sut cy trng, nguy c dch bnh, v.v). V d v ng dng ca phng php thc nghim trong nh gi tc ng do bin i kh hu: - Nghin cu nh hng ca kh hu v thnh phn khng kh ln cy trng v ging trong phng th nghim cho cy ngn ngy, cy lu nm, su hi, dch bnh - Nghin cu nh hng ca kh hu (nhit ) v thnh phn khng kh (kh nh knh) ln cht lng nc, chui thc n ca h sinh thi - Nghin cu nh hng ca kh hu ln cc c tnh ca t th nhng nh mc phn hy bn, hot ng ca vi sinh vt, tan ra cht dinh dng - Nghin cu nh hng ca kh hu ln cc c tnh ca vt liu xy dng nh bn, tnh gi nhit (lin quan n tit kim nng lng) u im: Phng php thc nghim c th cung cp thng Hn ch: Phng php thc nghim ch thch hp vi cc lnh vc v i tng mc tiu c quy m nh, phm vi tc ng nh v mi trng ca tc ng c th kim sot c. A.1.2. Nhm phng php ngoi suy cc s liu lch s Trong phng php ny ngi ta s dng cc m hnh ton d on nhng tc ng trong tng lai bng cch ngoi suy cc s liu quan trc trong qu kh. Vic s dng cc m hnh ton (hay cn gi l cc m hnh m phng) c thc hin theo 4 bc l chn m hnh thch hp, kim tra nhu cu d liu, pht trin m hnh, chy m hnh v phn tch kt qu. A.1.3. Nhm phng php nghin cu s dng cc trng hp tng t Phng php ny s dng s liu ca cc trng hp tng t mt khu vc khc nh gic tc ng ca bin i kh hu ln i tng ang xem xt. C 4 loi nghin cu tng t thng c dng l: - S kin lch s tng t, - Xu hng lch s tng t, - Khu vc kh hu hin ti tng t, v - Khu vc kh hu tng lai tng t. V d: Khu vc kh hu tnh An Giang, Cn Th, Sc Trng tng t nhau, xu hng lch s v lng ma, nhit trung bnh nm cng tng t, v th thng tin lin quan n tc ng ca bin i kh hu ca cc tnh ny c th c s dng tham kho ln nhau trong qu trnh nh gi tc ng (L Anh Tun. 2009. Tc ng ca bin i kh hu ln h sinh thi v pht trin nng thn vng ng bng sng Cu Long, Din n D tr sinh quyn v pht trin nng thn bn vng ng bng sng Cu Long 5-6/6/2009).

36 A.1.4. Nhm phng php chuyn gia Phng php ny tp hp cc kin v nh gi ca cc chuyn gia v tc ng ca bin i kh hu ln i tng ang xem xt. Cc kin v nh gi ca cc chuyn gia c tp hp t cc ti liu nghin cu, cc bo co nh gi hoc cc cuc hp chuyn gia. V d: Ngy 12/11/2010, Ban ch o Chng trnh hnh ng thch ng vi bin i kh hu ngnh Nng nghip v PTNT (gi tt l Ban ch o bin i kh hu) t chc hi tho ly kin t nhng n v thc hin Chng trnh hnh ng ng ph vi bin i kh hu ca B Nng nghip v PTNT nhm hon thin bn K hoch hnh ng ng ph vi bin i kh hu ca ngnh giai on 2011-2015, tm nhn n 2050. Ti hi tho ny, cc kin ca cc chuyn gia t vn v cc n v lin quan c a ra, trao i v tng hp b sung vo bn d tho k hoch hnh ng. Sau cuc tham vn ny, Ban ch o bin i kh hu tip tc t chc ly kin ca cc c quan qun l nh nc v c quan ngoi B nhm sm hon thnh d tho (Ngun: B Nng nghip & PTNT). Trn y l tm lc s b v cc nhm phng php nh gi tc ng. Gii thiu ny ch mang tnh cht tham kho. Vic la chn phng php c th no ph thuc vo tng a phng v c im ca tng trng hp nh gi v s do t cng tc ca a phng phi hp cng cc chuyn gia xc nh. Ngoi cc phng php trn th nh gi tc ng ca bin i kh hu v kh nng d b tn thng cho thi im hin ti cng c th c thc hin theo phng php c s tham gia ca cng ng v cc bn lin quan a phng.

A.2. Tiu ch v thng tin s dng trong nh gi tc ng ca bin i kh hu theo ngnh, lnh vc
Cc tiu ch v thng tin c s dng h tr cho vic nh gi tc ng do bin i kh hu ca mt s lnh vc c bn c trnh by tng quan trong Bng A1 di y bao gm cc tc ng chnh, cc tiu ch nh gi tc ng, nhng ri ro c th xy ra, cc tiu ch nh gi nng lc thch ng. Ni dung trong bng ny l khng hon ton y v ch mang tnh cht tham kho nhm cung cp thng tin ngi s dng c th nhanh chng tip cn trong qu trnh nh gi.

A.3. Phng php v cng c nh gi tc ng ca bin i kh hu n lnh vc ti nguyn nc

Trong lnh vc ti nguyn nc, cc i tng cn quan tm trong nh gi tc ng ca bin i kh hu bao gm: - Tr lng ngun nc: Nc mt v nc ngm. - Cht lng nc: Cc thay i ha hc, sinh hc, hoc nhit ca nc - H sinh thi thy sn thy sinh - Nhu cu s dng nc (xem Bng A2, A3, A4).

Bng A1. Cc tiu ch v thng tin dng trong nh gi tc ng bin i kh hu phn loi theo lnh vc
Nhng ri ro v thit hi c th xy ra - Gim/mt din tch t nng nghip canh tc - t b nhim mn do nc bin dng - Gim nng sut nng nghip - Thit hi ma mng. - Nhiu loi ging cy trng b thoi ha lm gim sn lng - Gim thu nhp t nng nghip - Mt kh nng tip cn ngun lng thc v nc sch - Khng ngun d tr lng thc - Tnh trng h thng iu, cng trnh thy li v nng lc khai thc, qun l cng trnh thy li - Nng lc qun l nng nghip v d tr lng thc - Nng lc nghin cu v sn xut ngun ging mi c kh nng thch ng cao - Nng lc v ngun lc qun l thin tai v him ha do kh hu - H thng tuyn truyn cho nng dn. - Cc chnh sch x hi h tr nng dn - Nng lc ca h thng iu, cng trnh thy li. - Nng lc qun l v nghin cu sn xut ngun ging - Nng lc ca i tu nh bt hi sn - Nng lc d bo v h thng cnh bo sm cho ng dn v ngi nui thy sn. - Cc chnh sch x hi h tr ng dn - Nng lc qun l tng hp vng b - H thng iu, cng trnh thy li v cc c s h tng th phc v cng nghip - Nng lc qun l t chnh sch v m n vi m trong lnh vc cng nghip v cc lnh vc lin quan - Nng lc quy hoch ngnh cng nghip v vng nguyn liu - Mt/gim din tch t ti u dnh cho cng nghip - Thay i c cu cng nghip - Thit hi my mc, nh xng, c s h tng cng nghip - Gim nng sut lao ng - Suy gim v cn kit ngun nguyn nhin liu sn xut cng nghip - Gim/ thit hi doanh thu cng nghip 37 Tiu ch nh gi nng lc thch ng

Lnh vc

Nhng tc ng chnh ca Tiu ch nh gi tc ng bin i kh hu bin i kh hu

Nng nghip v an ninh lng thc

- Nhit tng - Nc bin dng; - Bo v p thp nhit i; - L lt, hn hn, cc hin tng cc oan khc.

- % Din tch t canh tc nm trong khu vc trng / khu vc kh hn - % Nng sut canh tc nng nghip bin ng hng nm - Vng nng nghip chu nh hng bo, l - Cc loi ging cy trng kh thch ng vi thay i kh hu - T l ngi dn c tip cn vi ngun lng thc v ngun nc an ton - S lng d tr lng thc thc phm - Mt t nui thy hi sn - Bin ng ng trng, gim nng sut nui v nh bt - Suy gim/cn kit ngun v con ging - Thit hi ma v (nui trng v nh bt) do nc bin dng hoc bo, l - Cc c s h tng nui trng thy sn b ph hoi - Thit hi v ngi v cc phng tin nh bt

Thy hi sn

- Nhit tng; - Nc bin dng; - Bo v p thp nhit i; - L lt.

- % Din tch t nui thy hi sn - Ng trng/Vng nh bt thy hi sn - Ngun v cht lng con ging - Cht lng mi trng nc nui v sn xut thy hi sn

Cc ph lc: Ph lc A

Cng nghip

- Nhit tng; - Nc bin dng, - L lt, bo

- Qu t dnh cho sn xut cng nghip - C cu cc ngnh cng nghip: Loi hnh cng nghip, t l cng nghip ch bin, cng ngh cao - Ngun nguyn nhin liu cho cng nghip - Gi tr sn phm cng nghip - Cc yu t cu thnh gi thnh sn phm - Tnh trng sn xut v hiu sut lao ng

38

Bng A1. Cc tiu ch v thng tin dng trong nh gi tc ng bin i kh hu phn loi theo lnh vc (tip)
Nhng ri ro v thit hi c th xy ra Tiu ch nh gi nng lc thch ng

Lnh vc

Nhng tc ng chnh ca bin i kh hu - Gi thnh gia tng, - Mt vic lm ca lng ln cng nhn v nhiu h qu ca tht nghip - Ph hoi v lm h hng cc c s h tng giao thng, phng tin giao thng - Cn tr giao thng, gy ch tc v thit hi ln n, gi thnh vn chuyn, hao tn thi gian vn chuyn, nh hng n nn kinh t

Tiu ch nh gi tc ng bin i kh hu

- Thu nhp v mi trng lm vic ca cng nhn v ngi lao ng

- C s h tng ca ngnh

Giao thng vn ti - Nhit tng;

- Nc bin dng;

- Cc c s h tng giao thng nm trong khu vc trng, ven bin

- Bo v p thp nhit i;

- Nhu cu giao thng

- L lt.

- Nng lc ca h thng h tng ni chung: ng x, cu cng, kh nng tiu thot nc (cht lng c s h tng, kh nng thit k, thi cng) - Nng lc qun l giao thng

- Tnh trng n tc v cc thng s lin quan: Ngp trn trng, o ng

- Cht lng thi cng v tnh trng ng x

- Gy tai nn lm tn hi n sc khe, tnh mng - Kh nng ti chnh dnh cho giao v ti sn thng

- Nhit tng;

Xy dng, h tng, pht trin th/nng thn

- Nc bin dng;

- T l th ha v mc chnh lch gia thnh th v nng thn

- Bo v p thp nhit i;

- L lt, cc hin tng cc oan khc.

- Qu t th v cc khu vc trng thp trong th

- Mt t th v thit hi v ti sn vt cht ca - Nng lc chung ca h thng cng trnh th/nng thn do thin tai thy li, cp thot nc, iu v cc c s h tng k thut khc - Nhng vn hin ti s tr nn trm trng hn: Gia tng ngp ng, nhim bn h thng nc cp, gia tng nhim mi trng do h thng thu gom b gin on - Thit hi v cng trnh nh , cng cng (h hng hoc b ph hy), lm mt ch , gin on cng tc gio dc, y t v sinh hot cng ng - Nng lc qun l nh nc v qun l v quy hoch pht trin th/nng thn - Nng lc thit k, thi cng, gim st cc cng trnh xy dng, c s h tng - Nng lc d bo v cnh bo cc tc ng ca bin i kh hu - Thit hi v u t xy dng, gim gi tr sn phm, - Nng lc nghin cu nhng gii php tng gi thnh nguyn vt liu nh hng n s thch ng ph hp pht trin bn vng ca th trng

- Cc vn kh khn ca h tng hin nay: H thng thot nc lc hu, cp nc sch, thu gom v x l cht thi

- Tnh trng thiu cc c s vt cht h tng x hi: Trng hc, bnh vin, cng trnh cng cng, cng vin

- Mc pht trin u t xy dng cng trnh: Nh , cng trnh cng cng. Gi tr sn phm xy dng

- Cc vn lin quan n ngun cung cp vt liu xy dng

Bng A1. Cc tiu ch v thng tin dng trong nh gi tc ng bin i kh hu phn loi theo lnh vc (tip)
Nhng ri ro v thit hi c th xy ra Tiu ch nh gi nng lc thch ng

Lnh vc

Nhng tc ng chnh ca bin i kh hu - Suy gim v cn kit cc ti nguyn: t, nc, a dng sinh hc - Bin i h sinh thi t nhin - Lm trm trng hn cc vn nhim nc v khng kh - Nng lc qun l, nghin cu v d bo - Nng lc ti chnh v hiu qu s dng ngun ti chnh cho mc ch mi trng - H thng h tng v c s vt cht iu, thy li - Nng lc tuyn truyn, gio dc v vn ng cng thc bo v mi trng ca ton x hi - Gia tng dch bnh v cc thit hi v sc khe v tnh mng - Gia tng cc xung t x hi: Ngho i, tht nghip, tng tnh hnh ti phm - Lm gin on cc chng trnh x hi: Gio dc, y t - Kh nng qun l v cnh bo sm - Nng lc ca h thng y t d phng v cu tr - Nng lc qun l x hi v phng chng ti phm

Tiu ch nh gi tc ng bin i kh hu

- Nhit tng;

Mi trng/ti nguyn nc/a dng sinh hc

- Nc bin dng;

- Cc ch s v mi trng v ti nguyn: t, nc, a dng sinh hc

- Bo v p thp nhit i;

- Cc c im v mi trng, ti nguyn, a dng sinh hc ca khu vc nh gi

- L lt, hn hn, cc hin tng cc oan khc.

- Bn cc vng c nguy c b tn thng

- Tnh trng nhim ngun nc, khng kh trong th v mc tn thng khi c thin tai

- Nhit tng,

Y t, sc khe cng ng/cc vn x hi khc

- Nc bin dng;

- Cc khu vc c nguy c ngp do nc bin dng

- Bo v p thp nhit i; l lt, hn hn

- C s h tng v thit b y t, kh nng tip cn cc c s khm cha bnh

- Thng k v nh gi cc i tng c nguy c tn thng cao: Ngi gi, tr em, ph n, ngi lao ng ngho, ngi nhp c, cc i tng ma ty, mi dm v ti phm khc

- Chnh sch nh nc v a phng v cc vn x hi: Tht nghip, ngho i, an sinh x hi - Nng lc ti chnh v kh nng chi tr cho x hi v h thng an sinh x hi

Cc ph lc: Ph lc A

- Trnh vn ha ca ton x hi v cc i tng nm trong vng d b tn thng

- Nc bin dng;

Kinh doanh dch v, thng mi v du lch

- Bo v p thp nhit i;

- Cc khu vc nm trong vng trng, thp hn mc nc bin dng

- Thit hi v ti sn v c s vt cht ca cc ngnh kinh doanh - Lm gin on hoc mt i cc hot ng kinh doanh gy thit hi v ti chnh

- Nng lc qun l, d bo, cnh bo - Kh nng chng chu ca h thng c s vt cht h tng, iu, thy li. - Nng lc xy dng v thc hin cc quy hoch, k hoch pht trin ngnh

- L lt.

- C cu cc ngnh kinh doanh dch v, cc ngnh c nguy c tn thng cao v d du lch ven bin

39

40

Bng A2. Cc phng php nh gi tc ng ca bin i kh hu n lnh vc ti nguyn nc

Cc yu t kh hu Nhit gia tng i tng b tc ng Tc ng, ri ro Phng php v cng c nh gi

Cht lng nc Tng nguy c nhim ngun nc thng qua s thay - M hnh Vollenweider xc nh hm lng P, N (nc mt, i tnh cht ca cc lp cht trm tch, cht dinh cc i cho php ngm, sinh hot) dng, s phn hy cc bon hu c do nhit tng - M hnh Jorgensen tnh ton lng cht dinh dng Tng nguy c m ly ha cc lu vc v pht sinh cc - Phng php GIS chng lp bn phn vng loi kh c do to tng trng nhanh hn nh hng - Phng php nh gi cht lng nc theo ch s cht lng nc WQI - Phng php phn vng nh hng theo WQI Dng chy mt v dng chy ngm Thay i cng hot ng ca qu trnh hon lu - M hnh ton v tng quan gia lng ma & kh quyn, chu trnh tun hon nc, ch thy nhit v lu lng dng chy cho lu vc vn, v cc chu trnh vt l khc

Nhu cu s dng Nhu cu s dng nc gia tng trong khi tr lng - Kho st ti h gia nh v cc c s sn xut v cc nc phc v nc c th b suy gim i tng s dng khc; thng k cc s liu t cng sinh hot v ty cp nc sn xut - Phn tch d bo v nhu cu s dng nc Lng ma gia tng Tr lng ngun nc Tng d tr ngun nc - M hnh thy vn - M hnh d bo bin i dng chy mt v nc ngm (xem Bng 2.13)

Cht lng nc

nhim ngun nc c th b lan rng do ma qu - Cc m hnh thng k y t cng ng ln gy ngp ng. - Xy dng cc bn ngp lt Tng nguy c ngp lt v xi l t; thay i ch d - M hnh d bo bin i dng chy mt v nc dng chy trong sng v nc ngm; thay i da ngm (xem Bng 2.13) mo vng ca sng. - M hnh d bo bn ct v a mo - Phng php lp bn ngp lt

Mc nc bin dng

Ngun nc

Cc ph lc: Ph lc A 41

Bng A2. Cc phng php nh gi tc ng ca bin i kh hu n lnh vc ti nguyn nc (tip)

Cc yu t kh hu i tng b tc ng Cht lng nc Tc ng, ri ro Tng xm nhp mn trn sng v cc ngun nc ngm Phng php v cng c nh gi - M hnh d bo nhim mn, - M hnh bin i cht lng nc sng (xem Bng 2.13) - Cc m hnh thng k y t cng ng - Phng php lp bn ngp lt - Cc phng php quan trc, nh gi nhim ngun nc - Phng php thc nghim - Phng php lp bn tn thng - Phng php chng lp bn - Phng php lp bn d tn thng - M hnh d bo bin i dng chy - M hnh d bo cht lng nc (xem Bng 2.13) - Cc m hnh d bo xm nhp mn

Mc nhim ngun nc tng do ngp lt trn din rng v ko di.

H sinh thi thy sn Gia tng Ngun nc cng v tn sut cc hin tng thi tit cc oan Cht lng ngun nc

Nhim mn c nguy c lm ph hy h sinh thi thy sn nc ngt Hn hn gia tng ti mt s vng, trong khi mt s ni khc b ngp lt. Thay i bt thng dng chy trn cc sng Mc nc ti cc ao h, sng thp do hn hn dn n tng nng nhim Xm nhp mn gia tng do hn hn gia tng

Bng A3. Cc m hnh s dng cho nh gi tc ng bin i kh hu n ngun nc v cht lng nc

STT 1 Loi d bo D bo ng ngp th M hnh M hnh thot nc th: SWMM, MIKE M hnh thy lc thy vn: NAM, MIKE 11 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Bin i dng chy trn sng D bo bi lng h cha D bo nh hng ca bin i kh hu ln ch thy vn D bo xi mn t D bo din bin dng sng v ca sng Bin i cht lng nc h Bin i cht lng nc sng M hnh thy vn: SSARR, TANK, HECI, NAM, MIKE 11 M hnh bi lng h cha M hnh thy vn tng hp (Coupled atmosphere/ ocean/sea-ice general circulation models -AOGCM/GCM) M hnh qun l xi mn M hnh din bin bn ct trong sng: MIKE 21 M hnh cht lng nc h M hnh cht lng nc sng

42

Bng A4. V d v i tng nh gi tc ng ca bin i kh hu n ti nguyn nc TP.HCM

- Lng nc cp cho ngi dn: Thiu nc xy ra TP HCM, nht l vo ma kh. Khong 25% c dn Thnh ph khng c tip cn ti nc my, mc d c k hoch tng bao ph ti 100% vo nm 2025. - H thng thot nc ca TP HCM: H thng ny phc v khong 60% dn s v ni chung trong tnh trng yu km do thiu qun l v bo tr. C 9 nh my x l nc thi TP HCM. Cc nh my x l nc thi hin nay c cng sut x l nc thi cho ti nm 2010-2015 (B Xy dng, 2006). Nc sng Si Gn v sng ng Nai, mng li knh rch TP HCM v cc ti nc ngm b nhim nghim trng. - Dng chy sng Si Gn v sng ng Nai cng nh ton b mng li sng ngi knh rch trong Thnh ph s b tc ng bi bin i kh hu. Tng lng ma hng nm vo nm 2050 d bo s ging nh mc hin nay, s ln xung v lng ma theo ma chc s nghim trng hn. Lng ma trc tip s cao hn khi c gi ma. - Triu cng: S tc ng ti cc khu tr nc cc b gn TP HCM. Vic b tr vn hnh qun l nc cho lu vc s tr nn quan trng khi ngp lt nh hng su vo t lin nhm m bo cn i hp l, h tr vic chng li hin tng nhim mn ng thi duy tr cp nc v sn xut in. Mng li cp nc l thin v u u ni c cao trnh thp hn 1,5 m cc khu ln cn TP HCM s chu tc ng ca ngp lt, bt k mc nc l l bao nhiu tr phi k hoch xy dng h thng kim sot l lt d kin c trin khai. - Cc nh my x l nc: Do ch yu nm gn sng v knh chnh s c th b tc ng ca ngp lt khi mc nc dng. - Cht lng nc mt (tc l sng ngi knh rch): C th gim i hn na do nng lc x l nc thi hn ch v tim nng phn tn ra ngoi ca cc ngun nc l thin b nhim. Ngun: Ngn hng Pht trin Chu (ADB) v ICEM Trung tm Qun l Mi trng Quc t phi hp vi y ban nhn dn TP HCM, 2009.

A.4. Phng php v cng c nh gi tc ng ca nh gi tc ng ca bin i kh hu n cc lnh vc trng trt (Bng A5), chn nui (Bng A6) v thy sn bin i kh hu n lnh vc nng nghip
Nng nghip1 l lnh vc nhy cm i vi cc yu t kh hu nh nhit , s ngy nng, lng ma, v.v V vy bin i kh hu tc ng rt ln n nng nghip. Cc nh hng trc tip bao gm cc tc ng n sinh trng, nng sut cy trng, vt nui, thy hi sn, thi v gieo trng, lm tng nguy c ly lan su bnh, dch bnh lm nh hng n sinh sn, tng trng ca gia sc, gia cm, thy hi sn, cy trng, lm gim nng sut nh bt thy hi sn, gy ra cc thit hi v c s vt cht, phng tin sn xut, nh bt ca ngnh nng nghip. Hng dn ny gii thiu mt vi phng php tiu biu
1 Khi nim nng nghip y ch bao hm lnh vc trng trt, chn nui v thy sn.

(Bng A7). i vi trng trt cc i tng l ging cy trng, nng sut cy trng, ma v v t canh tc. i vi chn nui i tng l din tch chn nui, ging loi, c s h tng chn nui, v nng sut chn nui. Cc i tng ca thy sn l ging loi, nng sut nui, c s h tng v thit b nui trng v nh bt v sn lng nh bt thy hi sn.

A.5. Phng php v cng c nh gi tc ng ca bin i kh hu n lnh vc y t, sc khe cng ng

Bin i kh hu khng phi l mt nguyn nhn mi gy bnh tt hay t vong m n ch thay i nhng yu t nh hng n sc khe v tnh mng con ngi v lm trm trng thm tnh trng bnh tt v t vong (v d bin i

Cc ph lc: Ph lc A 43

Bng A5. Cc phng php nh gi tc ng ca bin i kh hu n lnh vc trng trt

Cc yu t kh hu Nhit gia tng i tng b tc ng Ging-cy trng Nng sut cy trng S ngy nng thay i Lng ma gia tng & nc bin dng Ma v t canh tc Tc ng, ri ro Thay i loi cy trng truyn thng ti a phng, gia tng vng cy trng nhit i Lm gim nng sut cy trng do dch bnh c iu kin pht trin, nhu cu nc cho cy trng tng trong khi ngun nc b hn ch do hn hn Lm thay i thi v Gy ngp lt lm gim din tch canh tc Nguy c xi l, lm bc mu cc vng t nng nghip. Tng din tch t canh tc b nhim mn Ging cy trng Nng sut cy trng nh hng n cc loi cy khng a nc do ngp lt gia tng v ko di. Tng nhu cu chuyn i cc loi ging cy trng Gy thit hi v gim nng sut do ma ln tht thng xy ra vo thi im ra hoa - kt qu, hay do ngp ng Nng sut b suy gim do t v nc b nhim mn Lmgiatngdchbnh,suhinhhnglnnnngsutcytrng Cc hin tng kh hu cc oan khc: Bo, p thp nhit i Nng sut cy trng v c s h tng chn nui Gy thit hi nng n i vi cy trng do ma mng b tn ph, cy trng b , gy Tn ph, lm h hng cc c s h tng chn nui nh chung tri, ao, h - Thng k, nh gi v d bo thit hi - Lp bn ngp lt - Quan trc v thng k - Cc m hnh nh gi nhim mn - Thng k v quan trc, th nghim - Thng k v lng ha chi ph Phng php nh gi - Kho st v thng k - Quan trc v nh gi cht lng ma v

kh hu lm cho cc hin tng thi tit cc oan xut hin nhiu hn, vi cng cao hn v bt thng hn). Khi nh gi tc ng ca bin i kh hu n sc khe, ngi ta thng khng xem xt y hc lm sng (quan tm n c nhn) m tp trung vo nh gi sc khe cng ng (quan tm n cng ng). V nguyn tc c bn ca sc khe, y t cng ng l nguyn tc phng nga nhm kim sot nguyn nhn gy bnh, cc ri ro v sc khe khc v tnh mng. S thch ng vi bin i kh hu ca y t cng ng l nhng n lc d on v lp k hoch chun b ng ph vi tc ng ca bin i kh hu ln y t v sc khe. S thay i cc yu t kh hu nh nhit , m v bc x mt tri c th lm thay i nng ca cc cht nhim khng kh, gy ra cc bnh v tim mch, ng h hp Nhit cao s nh hng trc tip n nguy c bnh tt v t vong, c bit vi nhng ngi ang b cng thng hoc

c bnh l v sc khe tm thn. Bn cnh nhng tc ng trc tip ny, bin i kh hu c th lm thay i cht lng nc, ha tan c cht vo mi trng nc (c bit l nhit cao thc y hin tng to n hoa), v thng qua chui thc n s tch ly vo trong c th con ngi. Tuy nhin, vic nh gi nhng tc ng ny i hi nghin cu chuyn su trong thi gian di, v do , s khng nm trong phm vi ca Hng dn (xem Bng A8). Hng dn ny gii thiu mt s phng php nh gi nhng tc ng chnh ca bin i kh hu n mt s i tng ca sc khe cng ng v ngnh y t bao gm: - Cc bnh lin quan n s thay i nhit : Thay i ch nhit, cc t nng (lnh); - D ng;

44 - Bnh truyn nhim; - Cc bnh do cc cht nhim khng kh gy ra; - Tnh mng con ngi; - C s h tng, thit b ngnh y t.

A.7. Phng php v cng c nh gi tc ng ca bin i kh hu n lnh vc cp thot nc

i vi mng li cp thot nc, c hai i tng cn quan tm l cng trnh ng ng v cng trnh u mi (cng trnh thu, trm bm, cng trnh x l nc). (xem Bng A10).

A.6. Phng php v cng c nh gi tc ng ca bin i kh hu n lnh vc giao thng v h A.8. Phng php v cng c nh gi tc ng ca bin i kh hu n quy hoch v pht trin tng k thut th
Lnh vc h tng k thut c xem xt y bao gm: Giao thng, cp thot nc, cung cp nng lng v thng tin lin lc. H tng k thut c vai tr quan trng i vi s pht trin ca cc a phng. Do mng li c s h tng k thut chim din tch kh ln trn mt t c bit l mng li giao thng do vy s chu nhng tc ng ln t bin i kh hu. Mng li cp thot nc, c bit cp thot nc th, l mt trong nhng lnh vc cn tp trung nh gi. Hng dn k thut ny tp trung vo hai lnh vc chnh l giao thng v cp thot nc. Giao thng Bin i kh hu s nh hng n giao thng do s thay i cc yu t kh tng v hin tng thi tit cc oan nh cc t nng nng, gia tng lng ma, bo v gia tng mc nc bin. Nhng him ha ny s c nhng tc ng khc nhau n cc loi hnh giao thng ty thuc vo c im vng a l m h thng giao thng c xy dng, vn hnh. Trong hng dn ny cc loi hnh giao thng (i tng b tc ng) s c nhm thnh 4 nhm chnh: - Giao thng ng b; - Giao thng ng st; - Giao thng ng thy, v - Giao thng ng hng khng. Hng dn ch tp trung gii thiu phng php nh gi cc tc ng trc tip. Cc tc ng gin tip nh gia tng chi ph x hi, nhim mi trng s khng c cp n y do tnh phc tp v lin ngnh ca n (xem Bng A9). Hu ht cc h thng th u chu cc tc ng ln ca bin i kh hu. Mt s lnh vc c lit k trn nh: Giao thng, h tng hay sc khe, y t. Do vy, phn ny ch yu tp trung vo cc vn v t ai & quy hoch s dng t th v pht trin cng nghip & dch v th. t ai v quy hoch s dng t th Bin i kh hu, nht l nc bin dng s c nhng tc ng nghim trng n lnh vc t ai. iu ny s nh hng n cc li ch kinh t i km vi quyn s dng t v nh hng n th trng bt ng sn. Bng A11, A12 gii thiu mt s phng php nh gi tc ng ca bin i kh hu n t ai v quy hoch s dng t. Pht trin cng nghip v dch v th Do tc ng ca bin i kh hu, pht trin cng nghip v cc dch v th ch yu s chu nhng thit hi v mt kinh t. Nhng i tng b tc ng l sn xut cng nghip v dch v (xem Bng A13).

A.9 Phng php v cng c nh gi tc ng ca bin i kh hu n lnh vc nng lng

Bin i kh hu c nhng tc ng rt ln n lnh vc nng lng, trong cc i tng b tc ng bao gm nhu cu s dng nng lng, ngun cung cp nng lng v cc c s vt cht ca mng li cung cp nng lng. Vit Nam, cc ngun nng lng c bn l nng lng in (thy in v nhit in) v ngun nng lng du m - kh gas thin nhin (xem Bng A14).

Cc ph lc: Ph lc A 45

Bng A6. Cc phng php nh gi tc ng ca bin i kh hu n lnh vc chn nui

Cc yu t kh hu Nhit gia tng i tng b tc ng Ging - loi Tc ng, ri ro Nhit gia tng nh hng n kh nng thch nghi ca vt nui, thay i thi quen sinh sn Gia tng nguy c dch bnh, gy thit hi ln, gim nng sut chn nui Ngp lt lm gim din tch chn nui (chung tri, ng c) Thay i thi quen sinh trng Tng nhu cu chuyn i ging loi trong trng hp ngp lt xy ra thng xuyn v ko di Nng sut chn nui Gim vng lng thc cho gia sc, gim nng sut chn nui Gia tng dch bnh trong gia sc, gia cm, tng kh nng lan truyn dch bnh Gia tng cng v tn sut cc hin tng thi tit cc oan Nng sut chn nui C s h tng chn nui Bo v l lt gy thit hi ln trong chn nui, lm gim nng sut hoc gim s lng n gia sc Ph hoi hay lm h hng chung tri chn nui - Thng k v lng ha chi ph - Phng php lp bn ngp lt - Quan st v thc nghim Phng php nh gi - Nghin cu thc nghim v ging v kh nng chu nhit/hn

Nng sut chn nui

Lng ma gia tng/Mc nc bin dng

t chn nui

Ging loi

- Th nghim v lng ha chi ph - Thng k v D bo v lng ha chi ph

46

Bng A7. Cc phng php nh gi tc ng ca bin i kh hu n lnh vc thy sn

Cc yu t kh hu Nhit gia tng i tng b tc ng Ging, loi Tc ng, ri ro Thay i trong s phn b sinh cnh cho cc loi c th, c bit l s thay i trong cu trc v chc nng qun th c Nguy c mt cc h sinh thi nhy cm vi nhit Thay i trong tnh hin hu ca sinh cnh do s gia tng nhng dng hi lu chnh Nng sut nui/nh bt Thay i mi trng sng ca to v cc vi sinh vt gy nh hng n ch dinh dng ca ngun nc gy nh hng n nng sut v cht lng thy sn Nng sut suy gim do dch bnh tng trong iu kin nhit cao, do cc loi thy sinh b cht khi cc t nng nng ko di. Lng ma gia tng Ging, loi Mt sinh cnh do s thay i ch ma nh hng n khi tch ngun nc (theo ma hoc trong nm) Thay i nng nc, nht l mn ca nc bin Mt hoc thay i v tr lung c L lt lm tht thot thy sn nui trong cc h ao. C s h tng, phng tin Ao h, b m, knh dn ncphc v nui trng thy sn b ph hoi Tu thuyn, thit b nui trng v nh bt b h hng Mc nc bin dng Din tch nui thy sn Nc mn xm nhp lm gim cc vng thy sn nc ngt Mt nhng vng t ngp nc ven bin v sinh thi ca sng do s thay i dng chy v mc nc bin Ging, loi S xm nhp ca cc loi khc dn n s cnh tranh mi hay li sng n tht Gy tht thot thy hi sn nui trng trong cc ao h, mgy Tn ph, lm h hng cc c s h tng nui trng thy h sn, lm mt hoc h hng tu thuyn v cc thit b nh bt khc - Thng k, nh gi v d bo thit hi - Thng k v lng ha chi ph - nh gi tc ng ca nhit n cc thi k tng trng ca cc loi thy hi sn - Quan st v thng k Phng php nh gi - Kho st v thng k

Nng sut nui/ nh bt

- Kho st v nghin cu thc a, quan trc cht lng nc

Cc hin tng kh hu cc oan khc: Bo, p thp nhit i

Nng sut v c s h tng nui trng v nh bt thy hi sn.

Cc ph lc: Ph lc A 47

Bng A8. Cc phng php nh gi tc ng ca bin i kh hu n lnh vc sc khe cng ng v y t

Cc yu t kh hu S thay i v nhit v lng ma (cc thng s nhy cm c th l: S ngy nng lin tc c nhit trn 38OC, trong iu kin ngp lt hoc khng c ma; s ngy ma lin tc, s ngy khng ma lin tc, s ngy c nhit thp hn 10OC.) i tng b tc ng Cc bnh lin quan n thay i nhit , v d: St cao do qu nng (hyperthermia), mt nhit do qu lnh (hypothermia), Cc bnh d ng (Vim mi d ng, hen suyn) Cc bnh truyn nhim v bnh dch Tc ng Tng nguy c bnh tt, t vong do cc t nng nng/ lnh ko di xy ra i vi nhng ngi lm vic ngoi tri, ngi gi, ngi bnh, ngi b tiu ng, ngi b tim mch, bo ph, tr em v tr s sinh, ngi ngho, ngi v gia c. Tnh trng bnh tt cng s trm trng thm do nng nng tng cng, ma t dn n hn hn, thiu nc. Gia tng cc bnh d ng do nhit v m tng, do gia tng nng Ozone tng i lu; c bit l tr em, ngi c sc khng yu Nhit v m tng l iu kin thun li cho mui pht trin v vy lm gia tng cc bnh nh st rt, st xut huyt c bit nhng i tng c sc khng km nh tr em, ngi gi, ngi bnh; ngi ngho, ngi sng khu dn c c thu nhp thp, iu kin v sinh km; ngi sng vng thp, c nguy c ngp lt Gia tng cc bnh do k sinh trng Chuyn dch vng nhim bnh do cc loi cn trng v sinh vt di chuyn ln cc v cao hn cng vi s thay i nhit Gia tng v lan truyn dch bnh do s ly nhim gia ngi-ngi, ng vt-ngi nh cm Tng din tch vng nhim bnh i vi bnh lan truyn qua ng nc nh dch t (Vibrio Cholera) c bit nhng ni khng c kh nng tip cn ngun nc sch, vng thp, c nguy c ngp Gia tng cc bnh lin quan n ng tiu ha do nhit v m tng l iu kin thun li cho cc loi nm mc pht trin c bit ngi ngho, nhng ngi sng vng c thu nhp thp, tr em S thay i v nhit v lng ma Cc bnh do nhim khng kh Tng nguy c b vim ng h hp, vim phi, bnh tim mch v t t do gia tng lng kh axit (NO2, SO2) v bi; c bit l tr em, ngi lm vic ngoi tri, ngi gi, ngi bnh tim, phi Tng nguy c ung th Cc hin tng Tnh mng kh hu cc oan con ngi khc : Bo, lt, p thp nhit i Tng nguy c b thng hoc t vong do bo, l, p thp nhit i tng ln v cng v tn xut. Cc i tng d b tn thng nht l ngi gi, tr em. - Thng k, iu tra, kho st - Quan trc cht lng khng kh, iu tra, kho st, m hnh ha - iu tra, kho st - Thng k thit hi, Ngoi suy (t s liu lch s) - Lp bn tn thng - Thng k thit hi, Ngoi suy (t s liu lch s) - Lp bn ngp lt - Cc phng php thc nghim - Cc phng php thc nghim - iu tra, kho st Phng php nh gi - M hnh ha kh tng, c o nhit - GIS - Thng k

- iu tra, kho st - M hnh ha, thng k, iu tra, kho st

C s h tng, thit b Tng mc ph hoi, h hng i vi c s h tng y t ngnh y t (bnh vin, trm y t) v thit b y t, cu tr

48

Bng A9. Cc phng php nh gi tc ng ca bin i kh hu n lnh vc giao thng

Cc yu t kh hu Gia tng nhit i tng b tc ng Mng li ng b Tc ng, ri ro H tng Phng tin Phng php nh gi

- Thng k, - Lm thay i tin v thi gin thi cng - Tng nguy c h hng v gim tui th cc O thnh phn ca phng tin giao thng nh: kho st, iu (v d khi nhit qu cao - trn 40 C) ng c (nng qu mc),xm, lp, phanh tra giao thng, - Lm h hng v gim tui th ca xe nh gi ri ro ng (v d, tan chy nha ng gy, gin n ) - Ri ro sc khe v an ton do lng nhit ta ra t ng cao tc, ng hm - Bin dng ng ray khi nhit tng qu cao v ko di - C kh nng gy sai lch i vi cc tn hiu trn ng ray; Tng thi gian vn chuyn do gim vn tc tu; Tng nguy c r r nguyn liu - C kh nng lm h hng v gim tui th ca tu v cc phng thit b lin quan - Cn ng bng di hn v cn nhiu nhin liu hn do khng kh long hn

ng st

ng hng khng

- C s h tng ng hng khng (nh xng, trm bo hnh) c nguy c b nh hng (h hng, chy n) khi nhit tng qu cao

ng thy

- Mc nc ti thiu m bo iu kin vn - Tng chi ph vn chuyn ng thy hnh c kh nng b nh hng - C th lm h hng cc phng tin vn ti ng thy khi nhit qu cao.

Gia tng lng ma

ng b

ng st

ng thy

- Tng su, thi gian v cng ngp - Gia tng tai nn trn ng; t on dch - Thng k, lt cc con ng ven bin v cc con v trung chuyn; ch tc giao thng; kho st, iu ng nm trong vng trng; Gy tai nn lm tn hi n sc khe, tra giao thng, Ngp ng hm tnh mng v ti sn nh gi ri ro - Tng mc ph hoi v lm h hng - Cc phng tin vn chuyn ng b - M hnh: ng khi l lt xy ra thng xuyn hn, cng d b h hng hn trong iu kin l lt Cn bng mnh hn, thi gian ngp lu hn. khc nghit. nc, thy vn, thy lc - Ngp lt ng ray - Ri ro n s an ton ca thit b, Thornthwaite, - Nguy c cun tri v lm h hng - Tu v cc thit b lin quan c nguy c b h SWMM, ng ray hng v ph hoi khi l lt xy ra vi cng MIKE11.. mnh - Lp bn ngp - Ngp cng - Nguy hi n nhng cng trnh cng, gia lt: ArcGIS, tng nguy c trn du - Lng sng c th b thay i (v d b MapINFO thu hp hay st l) mt s on gy cn - Cc phng tin, tu b c th b h hng, tr cho vn chuyn ph hoi khi l ln xy ra thng xuyn hn - Ngp lt sn bay - H thng thot nc qu ti

ng hng khng

Cc ph lc: Ph lc A 49

Bng A9. Cc phng php nh gi tc ng ca bin i kh hu n lnh vc giao thng

Cc yu t kh hu Gia tng mc nc bin i tng b tc ng ng b, ng st Tc ng, ri ro H tng - Gia tng ngp lt cc con ng ven bin, cc tuyn ng ray; ng hm/cng trnh ngm - n mn ng ven bin - Ph hy v lm h hng nn ng, m cu, ng ray khi ma, bo cng ln xy ra Phng tin - Cn tr lu thng - Cc phng tin giao thng ng b, ng st c nguy c h hng do mc nc bin dng lm ko di thi gian ngp v tng chiu cao song bin khi bo xy ra. Phng php nh gi - Thng k, kho st - iu tra giao thng - M hnh: SLRRP

ng hng - Ko di thi gian ngp sn bay khi khng l lt xy ra - Lm qu ti h thng thot nc sn bay ng thy - Mc nc su hn - C kh nng gy nguy hi n cng v cu cng v c s h tng lin quan do thi gian ngp lt ko di. - Tng mc ph hoi v lm h hng h tng ng b, ng st nh nn ng, cu cng, h thng tn hiu, chiu sng, nh xng - Cho php tu c ti trng ln hn

Cng trnh Gia tng cng v cu ng tn sut p thp nhit i, bo

- ng ca hoc ngng tr ng ph, ng st, sn bay, h thng vn chuyn, h thng bo ng - Tng nguy c ph hoi, lm h hng cc phng tin vn chuyn.

- Thng k, kho st - iu tra giao thng - M hnh AOGCM, HURASIM, SLOSH

50

Bng A10. Cc phng php nh gi tc ng ca bin i kh hu n mng li cp thot nc

Cc yu t kh hu Gia tng nhit i tng b tc ng Cc ng ng cung cp Cng trnh khai thc/ x l nc Lng ma gia tng/Nc bin dng Cc cng trnh khai thc v x l nc cp Tc ng, ri ro Tng nguy c bin dng do nhit, nh hng n an ton v chng tht thot nc Thay i gii php x l hoc tng thi gian do nhit tng lm tng hm lng vi sinh vt v cht l lng trong nc Nguy c ngp lt cc nh my cp nc v x l Lm gin on hot ng khai thc nc ngm khi ngp lt Ma ln km theo xi l t u ngun nh hng n qu trnh khai thc nc mt Nhim mn ngun nc mt ko di thi gian x l Cng trnh ng ng Nhim mn v n mn cc ng ng cp nc, tng kh nng tht thot, r r; Tng kh nng thm ngc nh hng cht lng ngun nc Ma ln lm tng lng nc thi gy qu ti mng li ng ng Ngp lt gy cn tr thot nc, c bit khi cao ngp cao hn ca x. Cng trnh x l, trm bm Qu ti cc cng trnh x l Gin on cng tc x l khi c ma ln hoc triu cng cao i hi tng cng u t trm bm, k chn khi mc nc cao hn ca x. Phng php nh gi - Thng k, kho st, iu tra, nh gi ri ro - Xy dng bn ngp lt

Cc ph lc: Ph lc A 51

Bng A11. Cc phng php nh gi tc ng ca bin i kh hu n t ai v quy hoch s dng t th

Cc yu t kh hu Thay i v lng ma, v mc nc bin dng Nhng i tng b tc ng Cc khu vc t ai ca th Gi tr t ai v th trng bt ng sn Nguy c / nh hng - Mt t do ngp lt, xi l - Lm nh hng/gin on cc hot ng kinh t, vn ha, x hi - Lm gim gi tr t ai ti khu vc b ngp lt, st l - Gim tnh thanh khon ca th trng - nh hng n quyn s dng v cc quyn c bn ca ngi dn gn lin vi bt ng sn - Gy kh khn trong vic xy dng cc quy hoch s dng t th do tnh bt nh ca bin i kh hu cao, cc thin tai tng ln trong khi qu t hn ch, dn s ngy cng cao - Quy hoch treo, km thc thi Phng php nh gi - Phng php chng lp bn GIS (xem v d Bng 2.22), m hnh GDEM, bn cao nn, H s kho st a cht - D bo v nh gi th trng, kho st iu tra

Xy dng quy hoch s dng t

- nh gi, d bo thng qua vic chng lp cc bn tn thng, tnh ton chi ph v li ch ca cc phng n khc nhau - D bo v nh gi x hi hc

Kh nng thc thi quy hoch

52

Bng A12. V d v nh gi tc ng ca ngp lt do bin i kh hu n t th Thnh ph H Ch Minh theo phng php chng lp bn
Mc tiu: Da theo cc kch bn mc nc bin dng tnh ton trn khu vc thnh ph H Ch Minh, dng phng php chng lp bn xc nh cc khu vc ngp lt di tc ng ca bin i kh hu, t xc nh phm vi v quy m s dng t th b ngp lt tng ng vi cc kch bn ny. Cc d liu: - Kch bn nc bin dng ca B Ti nguyn v Mi trng (s dng kch bn trung bnh B2). Kch bn 2020 Trung bnh (B2) 12 2030 17 Cc mc thi gian 2050 30 2070 46 2100 75

- D liu a hnh ton cu: y l nhng d liu khng gian c s dng v bn ba chiu v t c th v c bn d bo thit hi do thin tai nh chy rng v l lt. Hin c 2 loi d liu a hnh ton cu l SRTM v GDEM: (i) SRTM (Shuttle Radar Topography Mission) l d liu v rt chi tit b mt a hnh ca Tri t theo khng gian ba chiu, c thu thp c th bng phng php giao thoa cho php d liu hnh nh t anten kp ca radar tch khi cao ca mt t; (ii) GDEM (Global Digital Elevation Model) l d liu thu nhp t my cm bin lp trn mt v tinh ca NASA, trong c thng tin chi tit v cao trung bnh so vi mc nc bin tng khu vc, d liu c phn gii 30m x 30m. - D liu a hnh trong nc: y l d liu do B Ti nguyn v Mi Trng pht hnh, bao gm cc im o c trc tip ngoi hin trng c th hin thnh bn s ha vi t l 1:2000 v 1:5000. Bn a hnh bao gm cc im v cc ng bnh c s ha thnh lp bn dng im c kinh , v v cao . Cc phn khim khuyt t d liu o c thc t c b sung t d liu SRTM. Phng php: + Phng php tnh c thc hin trn nn bn cao s ha GIS ca thnh ph xc nh cc vng t thp c cao a hnh thp hn 12 cm, 17 cm, 30 cm, 46 cm, 75 cm, t nh ra nhng vng c kh nng ngp. Cc vng nm pha trong t lin, cc vng b chn bi bao khng n thng ra bin hay sng, s khng nh hng bi nc bin dng. Gi tr c (cm) Nh hn 0 0 12 0 12 12 17 17 30 30 46 46 75 Ln hn 75 Do , vng a hnh cn c chn lc theo cc tiu ch: - Cc vng c cao a hnh thp hn 12, 15, 30, 46, 75cm. Gi tr mi (cm) 0 12 12 17 30 46 75 Khng c gi tr

Cc ph lc: Ph lc A 53

Bng A12. V d v nh gi tc ng ca ngp lt do bin i kh hu n t th Thnh ph H Ch Minh theo phng php chng lp bn (tip)
- Cc vng tip gip b bin. - Cc vng c lin kt ng thi vi b mt nc sng, h, knh rch ni thng ra bin. Sau khi cc khu vc c xc nh l c kh nng ngp, din tch b ngp s c tnh theo 1 trong 2 cch sau: - m s lng phn gii ca mi vng ri nhn vi din tch ca mi phn gii. Kch thc ca phn gii c th c ly ty hay ly trc tip kch thc mc nh ban u ca d liu. - Tnh theo hm ca ta cc nh ca phn din tch, cng thc tnh din tch c xy dng sn trong cc chng trnh h thng thng tin a l, phng php ny tnh cho d liu dng vect (polygon). Ngun: L Vn Anh (2010)

54

Bng A13. Cc phng php nh gi tc ng ca bin i kh hu n pht trin cng nghip v dch v th
Cc yu t kh hu
Nhit gia tng

Nhng i tng b tc ng
Sn xut cng nghip/ Cc dch v th

Tc ng, ri ro Tc ng
Tc ng n mi trng lm vic ca cng nhn Tng chi ph h thng lm mt, iu ha My mc, thit b c nguy c b h hng, Nhit gia tng lm nh hng ln n dch v

Ri ro
Lm gim nng sut sn xut cng nghip Tng gi thnh sn phm, tng chi ph cho cc ngnh dch v Lng khch c th gim hoc tng ty theo vng Tng chi ph vn hnh i vi ngnh du lch Doanh s bn hng thay i (gim hoc tng)

Phng php nh gi
Quan trc v kho st nhit , iu tra x hi hc Thng k v Lng ha cc gi tr chi ph Kho st v thng k, so snh v nh gi

Tng nhu cu dng nc Lng ma gia tng Sn xut cng nghip Tc ng n ngun nguyn - vt liu Tc ng n qu trnh vn chuyn, phn phi hng ha Cc c s h tng cng nghip c th b ngp lt trong thi gian ko di Cc dch v th Mc nc bin dng Sn xut cng nghip Gim cc hot ng gii tr ngoi tri Ngp lt cc khu vc nh my, khu cng nghip

Gia tng chi ph Lm gim sn lng v nng sut Gy thit hi v ti sn Gi thnh sn phm tng Nguy c nhim ngun nc t vic pht tn cc cht ha hc t nh my khi ngp lt xy ra Suy gim ngun thu Thit hi ti sn Suy gim sn lng v nng sut Nguy c pht tn cc cht thi cng nghip ra mi trng

Thng k v Lng ha cc gi tr chi ph Thng k v Lng ha cc gi tr chi ph

Kho st cao nn, m hnh GDEM v ngp Thng k v nh gi Kho st cao nn, th nghim cht thi c chn lp

Hn ch/thu hp qu t pht trin cng nghip

Gim ngun u t vo cng nghip Thit hi v gi tr u t khu cng nghip Thng k v so snh nh gi

Cc dch v th

Ngp lt cc khu vc cng vin, khu du lch Gim din tch khai thc kinh doanh Ngng tr giao thng lin lc, gim lng khch du lch

Thit hi ti sn Gim ngun thu Tng chi ph u t nh hng ln n doanh thu dch v du lch

Kho st cao nn, m hnh GDEM v ngp, lng ha chi ph

Cc ph lc: Ph lc A 55

Bng A14. Cc phng php nh gi tc ng ca bin i kh hu n lnh vc nng lng

Cc yu t kh hu
Nhit gia tng

Nhng i tng b tc ng
Nhu cu s dng nng lng Ngun cung cp nng lng C s vt cht ca mng li cung cp

Tc ng, ri ro Tc ng
Gia tng nhu cu lm mt, iu ha

Ri ro
Tng nhu cu nng lng v chi ph nng lng

Phng php nh gi
Quan trc v kho st nhit . Kho st nhu cu dng in

Nhit tng lm gim hiu sut lm mt nh my in Nhit dy dn tng

Tng gi thnh v gim hiu sut sn xut Gim hiu sut truyn ti trn ng dy in Tnh ton hiu sut pht nng ng truyn

Lng ma gia tng

Nhu cu s dng nng lng Ngun cung cp nng lng

Nhiu khu vc ngp lt; Tng nhu cu dng nng lng bm thot nc th Tng tr lng nc cho thy in Hot ng phc v cung cp nng lng gim st do l lt Cc nh my nhit in b ngp lt

C th khng p ng c nhu cu dng in mt s khu vc

Kho st nhu cu dng in

Thun li cho cp in vi iu kin m bo d tr nc u ngun nh hng n hot ng khai thc kh t v dn khoan Lm thit hi ti sn Gin on hot ng cp in

Kho st v d bo lng ma

Kho st v d bo lng ma

Thng k v lng ha chi ph Thng k v lng ha chi ph, m hnh truyn ti in Thng k v lng ha chi ph

C s vt cht ca mng li cung cp

Mng li truyn dn (ng dy, trm bin p) b ngp

H hng thit b, gin on cung cp in Nguy c n mn v h hng ng dy trn khng H hng cc ng dy ngm

Thng k v lng ha chi ph

Thng k v lng ha chi ph Thng k v lng ha chi ph

Nc bin dng

Ngun cung cp nng lng C s vt cht ca mng li cung cp

H tng tng khai thc, dn khoan b h hng Cc ng ng dn gas, kh t c nguy c b h hi Cc cng trnh thit b ng dy cp ngm

Thit hi ti sn v gin on khai thc Gin on cung cp, tht thot kh gas B ngp v h hng B n mn bi nc mn

Thng k v lng ha chi ph

Ph lc B Cc gii php thch ng vi bin i kh hu

gip cung cp thm thng tin cho vic chn la cc gii php thch ng vi bin i kh hu, trong phn ny Hng dn gii thiu mt s gii php thch ng tiu biu c chn la, s dng trong cc d n hoc chng trnh thch ng vi bin i kh hu ti Vit Nam v cc nc trong khu vc. Cc gii php thch ng c xem xt da trn 4 nhm nh sau: - D phng: Cc gii php nhm chun b v d phng ng ph vi bin i kh hu v cc s kin bt thng. - Bo v: Cc gii php thch ng nhm bo v nguyn trng, trnh tc ng d bo ca bin i kh hu v gim thiu thit hi. - To sc chng chu: Cc gii php thch ng nhm tng sc chng chi cc tc ng ca bin i kh hu . - Sn sng: Cc gii php thch ng nhm i ph vi tc ng d bo ca bin i kh hu. Cc gii php thch ng c trnh by ln lt cho mt s ngnh nh ti nguyn nc, nng nghip, y t sc khe, giao thng v h tng k thut, quy hoch xy dng v thit k th v nng lng. Cc gii php c nu y l khng y v ch mang tnh cht tham kho. tr cho kh nng p dng cc gii php thch ng a phng. Theo y ban Lin chnh ph v bin i kh hu (IPCC ,1996), nhng gii php quan trng quy m quc gia bao gm: - Nng cao cht lng o to v gio dc ph thng cho ngi dn ph thuc vo nng nghip, c bit l nhng vng nng thn ngho, xa xi, ho lnh; - Xc nh c tnh d tn thng ca h thng nng nghip hin ti; - Nghin cu to ra cc chin lc v pht trin ging cy trng mi; - Gio dc v truyn thng mang kt qu nghin cu n cho nng dn; - Cc chng trnh lng thc, thc phm, h tr gi v chng trnh an ninh x hi khc; - m bo giao thng vn ti, phn phi, v hi nhp th trng cung cp cc c s h tng cn thit v cung cp thc phm khi mt ma. cc a phng, nhng gii php thch ng tt nht i nng nghip cn tn dng ti a nhng g m kh hu em li v hn ch n mc ti thiu nhng tc ng tiu cc ca n. Cc gii php thch ng trong lnh vc nng nghip bao gm gii php thch ng i vi trng trt (A2-, chn nui (4.3.2.2) v thy hi sn (4.3.3.3). Cc gii php thch ng trong lnh vc trng trt Cc gii php thch ng trong lnh vc trng trt mang tnh c th ring ca tng a phng, khu vc. Bng B2 ch trnh by cc gii php thch ng khi qut. Cc gii php thch ng trong lnh vc chn nui Cc gii php thch ng trong lnh vc chn nui ch yu l cng c h thng cnh bo dch bnh; Vic nghin cu cc gii php k thut, cng ngh nhm ci thin ging; Thay i phng thc chn nui theo hng tit kim t, nng lng, ngun nc. (xem Bng B3).

B.1. Cc gii php thch ng trong lnh vc ti nguyn nc

(Xem Bng B.1)

B.2. Cc gii php thch ng trong lnh vc nng nghip

Mc d a s cc gii php thch ng vi bin i kh hu trong lnh vc nng nghip thng mang tnh a phng, vic hoch nh cc chin lc thch ng quc gia ng vai tr quan trng trong vic thc y v h

58

Bng B1. Cc gii php thch ng vi bin i kh hu trong lnh vc ti nguyn nc

Cc yu t kh hu Nhit gia tng Tc ng, ri ro Tng nguy c nhim ngun nc thng qua cc lp cht trm tch, cht dinh dng, s phn hy cc bon hu c To tng trng nhanh hn.. dn n hin tng m ly ha cc thy vc, pht sinh cc loi kh c Thay i cng hot ng ca qu trnh hon lu kh quyn, chu trnh tun hon nc v cc chu trnh sinh a ho khc Thc y qu trnh bc hi nc lm gia tng nng cc cht nhim trong cc sng sui ao h Nhu cu s dng nc gia tng do nhu cu gii nhit, lm mt, iu ha, trong sinh hot v sn xut - Xy dng nguyn tc dng nc; thay i thi quen dng nc tuyn truyn nng cao thc ca ngi dn trong s dng nc v tit kim nc - Nghin cu cng ngh v phng php x l, thay i nguyn tc vn hnh, thit lp h thng chuyn i linh hot gia nc ngm v nc mt - Quy hoch tng th ngun nc, xy dng h thng d tr - Nghin cu xy dng h thng bao, p ngn mn; S dng cc gii php nhn to: Thay i v tr hoc cao ca ly nc; Lt y knh - Xy dng h thng quan trc v phn tch mn - C ch quan trc; c quy hoch tng th ngun nc, xy dng cc cng trnh p tr nc, cn bng ngun nc Gii php thch ng - C ch quan trc v kim tra thng xuyn i vi cht lng ngun nc ao h, sng sui

Nhit nc tng cao v ma h s gy kh khn trong qu trnh x l nc cp v x l nc thi

Lng ma gia tng

Gia tng ngun nc, tng d tr ngun nc

Mc nc bin dng

Tng din tch b xm nhp mn ti cc ca sng v ca ngun nc ngm Nc b nhim mn do thy triu ln Tc ng n ngun nc ngt ti thy vc Nhim mn c nguy c lm ph hy h sinh thi thy sn nc ngt

- Xy dng ch quan trc v kim tra nng mn - Quy hoch tng th ngun nc, xy dng h thng d tr ; Trnh lm thay i dng chy chnh trong vic xy dng h thng p, h tr nc - S dng cc gii php nhn to: Thay i v tr hoc cao ca ly nc; Lt y knh; S dng cc ng ng kn thay cho knh h Kt hp nhng h tr nc ring r thnh mt h thng; S dng phng php ti np nhn to hn ch bc hi nc

Gia tng cng v tn sut cc hin tng thi tit cc oan

Hn hn gia tng ti mt s vng, trong khi mt s ni khc b ngp lt Thay i bt thng dng chy trn cc sng Mc nc ti cc ao h, sng thp trong khi nng cc cht dinh dng, cn l lng v cc loi mui rt cao, dn n s thay i mi, v ca nc Gia tng qu trnh xm nhp mn do hn hn

Cc ph lc: Ph lc B 59

Bng B2. Cc gii php thch ng vi bin i kh hu trong lnh vc trng trt
Cc yu t kh hu Nhit thay i (gia tng vo ma h, gim vo ma ng) Tc ng, ri ro Thay i loi cy trng truyn thng ti mi vng, gia tng vng cy trng nhit i Dch bnh c iu kin pht trin trong iu kin nng m cao hn lm gim nng sut cy trng Gy ngp lt lm gim din tch canh tc Nguy c xi l, bc mu cc vng t nng nghip - S dng c hiu qu t canh tc, tp dng cc loi lung, lip, trng trn gin, trng thy sinh - Tng cng hiu qu cng tc quy hoch ngnh trng trt - Nng cao nhn thc cho ngi nng dn v cc tc ng ca bin i kh hu v cc gii php thch ng - Lng ghp Thch ng vi bin i kh hu vo cc k hoch, quy hoch, chnh sch ca ngnh nng nghip - Nghin cu ging cy trng chu nc v dch bnh, c nng sut cao - Nghin cu cc cng ngh sinh hc, phn bn v kh nng trng linh hot - Nghin cu chuyn i thi v ca cc loi cy trng d b tc ng - Hnh thnh cc chnh sch x hi h tr cho ngi lm nng nghip - Xy dng h thng bao ngn nc, ngn mn Gii php thch ng - Nghin cu cc ging cy trng c kh nng thch ng c vi s thay i nhit v c kh nng khng dch bnh cao hn

Thay i lng ma, nc bin dng

Gim nng sut cc loi cy trng khng a nc, lm tng nhu cu chuyn i ging cy trng Lm thit hi v gim nng sut do ma ln tht thng xy ra vo thi im ra hoa - kt qu Ma ln tht thng gy ngp ng ko di v thit hi ma mng t v nc b mn xm nhp lm nh hng n cc loi cy trng Lm thay i ma v, nh hng n an ninh lng thc Lm gia tng dch bnh, su bnh nh hng ln n nng sut cy trng

60

Bng B3. Cc gii php thch ng vi bin i kh hu trong lnh vc chn nui
Cc yu t kh hu Nhit thay i i tng b tc ng Ging - loi Nng sut chn nui Tc ng, ri ro Nhit gia tng nh hng n tnh thch nghi ca vt nui, thay i thi quen sinh sn Gia tng nguy c dch bnh, gy thit hi ln, gim nng sut chn nui Gii php thch ng - Nghin cu p dng cc cng ngh sinh hc trong la chn ging, loi c kh nng khng bnh cao v kh nng thch nghi vi iu kin nng lnh cc oan - Tng cng cc gii php phng trnh v x l cc loi dch bnh - Tng cng hiu qu s dng t, p dng cc cng ngh chn nui mi, hn ch s dng phng php chn th - Quy hoch cc vng chn nui tp trung t chu tc ng ca cc him ha kh hu - Nghin cu cc cng ngh chn ging, to ging c kh nng thch nghi cao - Nghin cu nhm a dng ha cc loi thc n - C h thng chn nui an ton sinh hc - Ch ng chun b cc gii php ng ph (v chung tri, thuc men) khi l lt xy ra - C h thng cnh bo sm, ngn nga nhng ri ro v thit hi mt cch nhanh chng

Lng ma thay i/ Mc nc bin dng

t chn nui

Ngp lt lm gim din tch chn nui suy gim Lng ma gia tng v nc bin dng c nguy c lm gim din tch ng c v thu hp din tch chn th

Ging loi Nng sut chn nui

Thay i thi quen sinh trng Gim vng lng thc cho gia sc lm gim nng sut chn nui Gia tng dch bnh trong gia sc, gia cm, tng kh nng lan truyn dch bnh

Gia tng cng v tn sut cc hin tng thi tit cc oan

Nng sut chn nui

Bo v l lt gy thit hi ln trong chn nui, lm gim nng sut hoc gim s lng n gia sc

Bng B4. Cc gii php thch ng vi bin i kh hu trong lnh vc thy sn

i tng b tc ng Ging loi Tc ng Thay i thi quen sinh trng Thay i sinh cnh hoc thay i mi trng sng Ngun ti nguyn thy hi sn t nhin b suy gim Phng thc nui thy sn v khai thc nh bt Gim hiu qu ca cc phng thc nui trng, nh bt truyn thng Gii php thch ng - Nghin cu cng ngh sinh hc nhm ci thin ngun ging loi, tng kh nng thch nghi vi mi trng - Nghin cu thay th vic nh bt bng nui trong mi trng t nhin - Nghin cu cc loi ging pht trin nhanh, kh nng khng bnh tt - Tuyn truyn nhng chnh sch bo v ti nguyn thy hi sn - Nghin cu cc gii php k thut mi gip thy hi sn nui trng thch nghi c vi s thay i kh hu. - Ci to lng h, gia c b bao, xy bao - Tng cng nhn thc, nng lc (k thut v my mc) cho cc i tu nh bt thy hi sn - Tng cng cng tc cnh bo bo, cung cp cc thit b thng tin lin lc cn thit cho cc i tu

Cc ph lc: Ph lc B 61 Cc gii php thch ng trong lnh vc thy sn Trong lnh vc thy sn, cc chin lc v gii php thch ng ph thuc vo mt s iu kin vt l, sinh thi v kinh t - x hi bao gm: - Bn cht tc ng ca bin i kh hu n ngun ti nguyn thy hi sn; - Bn cht loi thy hi sn: Nc mn, nc l hay nc ngt; - V tr ngun thy hi sn; - Loi thy hi sn: Nc m hay nc lnh; - Hin trng ngh thy hi sn; - Bn cht ngnh ngh: Thng mi hay tr gi; - Tm quan trng ca ngh thy hi sn i vi kinh t a phng, ton quc v vng; - Cc hot ng thch ng ca cc ngnh khc nh ti nguyn nc, ti nguyn vng ven bin, nng nghip v s dng t. Bng B4 trn y gii thiu mt s gii php thch ng tiu biu cho 3 i tng l ging loi; phng thc nui trng v khai thc nh bt; vic tng cng nng sut v hiu qu.

B.4. Cc gii php thch ng trong lnh vc giao thng v h tng k thut
Giao thng Cc nhm gii php thch ng vi bin i kh hu i vi lnh vc giao thng bao gm: Ci thin, iu chnh cng tc vn hnh, quan trc v p dng cng ngh tin tin, chia s kinh nghim, thay i thit k, iu chnh quy hoch giao thng v quy hoch s dng t v bo him. (xem Bng B6) Cp thot nc (xem Bng B7)

B.5. Cc gii php thch ng trong lnh vc quy hoch xy dng v pht trin th
t ai v quy hoch s dng t th Cc gii php v m ng vai tr quan trng trong vic tng cng kh nng thch ng trong quy hoch th. Cc a phng cn quan tm n mt s yu t nh cao trnh nn, cc gii php c tnh phng nga ch ng khi bin c xy ra, cc gii php thit k c tnh i mi, cc gii php xy dng quy hoch v qun l sau quy hoch v.v... (xem Bng B8) Pht trin cng nghip v dch v (xem Bng B9)

B.3. Cc gii php thch ng trong lnh vc y t sc B.6. Cc gii php thch ng trong lnh vc nng lng khe cng ng
tng cng kh nng thch ng vi tc ng ca bin i kh hu trong lnh vc y t th mt trong nhng vic cn thit u tin l thit lp h thng gim st sc khe cng ng nhm pht hin nhng thay i v sc khe lin quan n bin i kh hu. y l c s xut chng trnh hnh ng v nh gi hiu qu ca cc gii php thch ng. Bn cnh , cc c quan y t cp tnh/thnh cn phi chun b v trang b kh nng ng ph i vi cc tc ng n sc khe khi cc hin tng kh hu cc oan xy ra. Vic chun b ny bao gm t cng tc qun l, t chc, k nng, chuyn mn, nghin cu, trang thit b n vn ng, nng cao nhn thc cho cng ng. (xem Bng B5) (xem Bng B10, B11)

B.7. Cc gii php thch ng theo vng min

Xt phm vi mt vng cc gii php thch ng vi bin i kh hu c th c chia thnh cc nhm nh sau : - Cc gii php quy hoch di hn: Quy hoch th, quy hoch h thng h tng k thut (giao thng, ngun nc cp v mng li cp thot nc), quy hoch s dng t (phn vng nng nghip, du lch, bo tn t nhin), quy hoch code nn; - Cc gii php chnh sch kinh t: Cc chnh sch ca nh nc v a phng trong ti nh c, chnh sch v t ai, n b gii ta, chnh sch v thu v tr cp u i; - Cc gii php cng trnh: Xy dng h thng iu, h thng thot nc, nh trn

62 cc, gii php vt liu xy dng, xy dng h cha, - Cc gii php nng cao nng lc, nhn thc: Tuyn truyn, vn ng, gio dc nng cao thc ca cng ng, c bit trong cc lnh vc y t v v sinh dch bnh, bo v ti nguyn thin nhin, tit kim nng lng. - Cc gii php k thut ca tng ngnh: Nghin cu iu chnh ging loi, thay i ma v v phng thc canh tc, nui trng trong nng nghip, gii php k thut vt liu xy dng, cng ngh x l nc. - Cc cng c qun l khc: Ch gim st, quan trc; h thng cnh bo sm; h thng cung cp thng tin qun l. Khi xc nh v la chn cc gii php thch ng cho mt vng th cc gii php ca cc ngnh, lnh vc, i tng khc nhau cn m bo tnh tng th. Ni mt cch khc, cc gii php ny phi bao trm cc lnh vc khc nhau nh gii php v th ch, chnh sch, gii php k thut, gii php cng trnh, gii php v kinh t, x hi, v.v... Cc c quan ban ngnh v cc bn lin quan trong vng phi phi hp vi nhau. Cc gii php ca cc ngnh, i tng khc nhau phi mang tnh b tr cho nhau, khng chng cho (v d gii php thch ng cho ngnh ny khng c lm tn hi n ngnh khc). Khi cc gii php ca cc ngnh p ng c cc tiu ch trn th vic tng hp cc gii php ny s cho chng ta mt gi gii php tng cng kh nng thch ng cho tng a phng (xem Bng B12). Vic la chn cc gii php thch ng cho vng min s phi cn c vo c im, bi cnh ca tng a phng, mc tc ng ca cc hin tng bin i kh hu, mc d b tn thng v ty thuc vo kh nng ng ph ca tng a phng i vi tng lnh vc khc nhau. Cc v d v cc gii php thch ng c th cho tng lnh vc c trnh by phn 3.4. i vi cc vng min c th, iu quan trng l chn la c cc gi gii php c tnh bao qut v tng hp.

Cc ph lc: Ph lc B 63

Bng B5. Mt s gii php thch ng vi bin i kh hu trong lnh vc y t sc khe cng ng
Cc yu t kh hu S thay i v nhit v lng ma Cc hin tng kh hu cc oan khc : Bo, lt, p thp nhit i Tc ng - Cc bnh lin quan n thay i nhit , v d: St cao do qu nng (hyperthermia), mt nhit do qu lnh (hypothermia), - Tng nguy c t vong do cc t nng nng/ lnh ko di Gii php thch ng - S dng h thng cnh bo sc khe tiu chun - Gio dc v truyn thng cng ng; nng cao nhn thc cng ng v mi nguy him t s thay i nhit v cc t nng nng/lnh hn ch cc bnh lin quan n nhit - p dng chin lc tip cn vi i tng c nguy c cao - Thng k v thu thp thng tin, xy dng c s d liu v vn sc khe cng ng v bin i kh hu - Tng cng nng lc x l ca h thng y t a phng trong trng hp xy ra thin tai, dch bnh - Trng cy trong th gim hin tng c o nhit - Thit k cng trnh trong c cng ngh chng nhit - Nng cao nhn thc cng ng v nguy c gia tng cc tc nhn gy d ng, cch phng trnh v cha tr - Thit lp h thng cnh bo theo thi gian cho cng ng - Cp nht v ph bin thng tin trn cc phng tin truyn thng - Cung cp dch v y t thng trc ti nhng im nhy cm - Xy dng v ph bin cc bn hng dn du hiu v triu chng ca bnh tt n ngi dn thng qua cc bo i, t ri v trung tm y t d phng

Tng cc bnh d ng, vim mi; hen suyn... Gia tng cc bnh nh st rt, st xut huyt do nhit v m tng l iu kin thun li cho mui pht trin Gia tng cc bnh lin quan n ng tiu ha do nhit v m tng l iu kin thun li cho cc loi nm mc pht trin Gia tng cc bnh do k sinh trng

- Nng cao nhn thc v gio dc cng ng gi v sinh mi trng, tiu dit ni tr ng ca cc loi k sinh trng mang bnh - Cung cp dch v y t thng trc ti nhng im nhy cm - Thit lp h thng cnh bo theo thi gian cho cng ng - Cp nht v ph bin thng tin lin quan trn cc phng tin truyn thng

Chuyn dch vng nhim bnh do cc loi cn trng v vt mang bnh

64

Bng B6. Cc gii php thch ng vi bin i kh hu trong lnh vc giao thng
Cc yu t kh hu Gia tng nhit Tc ng, ri ro H tng Lm thay i tin v thi gian thi cng (v d khi nhit qu cao - trn 40OC) Lm h hng v gim tui th ca ng (v d, tan chy nha ng gy, gin n ) Phng tin Tng nguy c h hng v gim tui th cc thnh phn ca phng tin giao thng nh: ng c (nng qu mc), xm, lp, phanh xe Gii php thch ng - iu chnh thi gian thi cng - iu chnh thit k v thit b cho cc hng tin giao thng m bo chu nhit tt (v d h thng thng gi, gim nhit) - Thay i thit k h thng lm lnh - Nghin cu p dng cc vt liu chu nhit tt hn, cc cng ngh lm ng mi - Tng cng cng tc bo tr, bo dng - C kh nng gy sai lch i vi cc tn hiu trn ng ray; Tng thi gian vn chuyn do gim vn tc tu; Tng nguy c r r nguyn liu - C kh nng lm h hng v gim tui th ca tu v cc phng thit b lin quan - Tng chi ph vn chuyn ng thy - C th lm h hng cc phng tin vn ti ng thy khi nhit qu cao - Gia tng tai nn trn ng; t on dch v trung chuyn; ch tc giao thng; Gy tai nn lm tn hi n sc khe, tnh mng v ti sn - Cc phng tin vn chuyn cng d b h hng hn trong iu kin l lt khc nghit. - Nguy hi n nhng cng trnh cng, gia tng nguy c trn du - Cc phng tin, tu b c th b h hng, ph hoi khi l ln xy ra thng xuyn hn - Nghin cu p dng cng ngh mi, thit k mi trong xy dng ng ray - Gim tc lu thng v tn sut ca mt s loi hnh dch v khi mc ri ro cao - Ci tin h thng cnh bo cc ri ro - Kim tra v bo tr thng xuyn - Thay i hng vn chuyn, no vt lng knh v khi thng dng chy - Xy dng tng/ bin - iu chnh cc quy hoch pht trin ng b, ng thy, ng st hin ti v lng ghp bin i kh hu vo cc quy hoch trong tng lai - Thay i thit k v vt liu - Gia tng cao nn ng b, ng ray - Xy dng ro cn chn l cho hm; lp t h thng bm d phng

Bin dng ng ray khi nhit tng qu cao v ko di

Mc nc trong cc knh, rch h thp Gia tng lng ma - Tng su, thi gian v cng ngp lt cc con ng ven bin v cc con ng nm trong vng trng; Ngp ng hm, ngp lt ng ray, ngp cng - Tng mc ph hoi v lm h hng ng khi l lt xy ra thng xuyn hn, mnh hn, thi gian ngp lu hn - Nguy c cun tri v lm h hng ng ray - Gia tng ngp lt cc con ng ven bin, cc tuyn ng ray; ng hm/ cng trnh ngm - n mn ng ven bin - Ph hy v lm h hng nn ng, m cu, ng ray khi ma, bo cng ln xy ra - Ko di thi gian ngp sn bay khi l lt xy ra - Lm qu ti h thng thot nc sn bay

Mc nc bin dng

- Cn tr lu thng - Xy dng tng/ bin - Cc phng tin giao thng ng b, - iu chnh cc quy hoch pht trin ng st c nguy c h hng do mc nc ng b, ng thy, ng st bin dng lm ko di thi gian ngp v hin ti v lng ghp bin i kh hu tng chiu cao song bin khi bo xy ra vo cc quy hoch trong tng lai - Thay i thit k v vt liu - Gia tng cao nn ng v cng trnh lin quan - Lp t h thng bm d phng - Tng cng cng tc bo tr, bo dng - Ci to h thng thot nc

Cc ph lc: Ph lc B 65

Bng B6. Cc gii php thch ng vi bin i kh hu trong lnh vc giao thng (tip)
Cc yu t kh hu H tng - C kh nng gy nguy hi n cng v cu cng v c s h tng lin quan do thi gian ngp lt ko di Gia tng cng v tn sut p thp nhit i, bo Tng mc ph hoi v lm h hng h tng ng b, ng st nh nn ng, cu cng, h thng tn hiu, chiu sng, nh xng - ng ca hoc ngng tr ng ph, ng st, sn bay, h thng vn chuyn, h thng bo ng - Tng nguy c ph hoi, lm h hng cc phng tin vn chuyn - Thit k cc cng trnh lin quan thch ng vi vn tc gi ln - Nghin cu p dng cc vt liu mi c kh nng chng chu tt vi cc hin tng kh hu cc oan. - S dng cng ngh thng minh pht hin nhng s c bt thng Tc ng, ri ro Phng tin Gii php thch ng

66

Bng B7. Cc gii php thch ng vi bin i kh hu trong lnh vc cp thot nc

Cc yu t i tng kh hu b tc ng Gia tng nhit Cc ng ng cung cp Tc ng, ri ro Gii php thch ng

- Thit lp h thng quan trc, thng xuyn kim tra ng ng cp nc - Nghin cu p dng vt liu mi cho ng ng cp nc Cng trnh khai Phi thay i gii php x l hoc tng thi gian do nhit - Chn gii php ngm ha cc tuyn thc/ x l nc tng lm tng hm lng vi sinh vt v cht l lng trong nc cp nc hn ch tip xc trc tip vi nhit Nguy c ngp lt cc nh my cp nc v x l Lng ma Cc cng trnh - Nghin cu p dng cc cng ngh gia tng/ khai thc v x x l mi Nc bin l nc cp Lm gin on hot ng khai thc nc ngm khi ngp lt - Quy hoch hp l cao trnh nn, dng c gii php nng nn cc b i vi Ma ln km theo xi l t u ngun nh hng n nhng nh my hin hu qu trnh khai thc nc mt - Nghin cu quy hoch ngun cp nc, linh hot chuyn i nc ngm Nhim mn ngun nc mt ko di thi gian x l v nc mt, hn ch tc ng bt thng ca bin i ngun nc mt - Quy hoch v tr thu nc v trm bm, Cng trnh Nhim mn v n mn cc ng ng cp nc, tng kh cao ly nc hn ch tp cht ng ng nng tht thot, r r; Tng kh nng thm ngc nh hng - Quy hoch cao trnh nn cht lng ngun nc - Quan trc v thng xuyn kim tra Cng trnh Ma ln lm tng lng nc thi gy qu ti mng li ng ng ng ng - C ch bo tr nh k cc tuyn ng ng cng, ng ng cp nc Ngp lt gy cn tr thot nc, c bit khi cao ngp - Quy hoch cao trnh nn i vi cc cao hn ca x khu th mi - Quy nh ca x, cc v tr trm bm Cng trnh x l, Qu ti cc cng trnh x l x, v tr trm x l hp l trm bm - Tnh ton hp l quy m ng ng, Gin on cng tc x l khi c ma ln hoc triu cng cao dng h thng thot nc ring - Quan trc v c ch cnh bo v d i hi tng cng u t trm bm, k chn khi mc nc phng trong trng hp khn cp cao hn ca x. - Nghin cu cng ngh x l thch ng vi iu kin ngp lt (h, ca x, trm bm...)

Tng nguy c bin dng do nhit, nh hng n an ton v chng tht thot nc

Cc ph lc: Ph lc B 67

Bng B8. Mt s gii php thch ng vi bin i kh hu trong lnh vc quy hoch t ai v s dng t th
Nhng i tng b tc ng Cc khu vc t ai ca th Nhng tc ng ch yu - Mt t do ngp lt, t ai b xi l, st ln - Lm nh hng/gin on cc hot ng kinh t, vn ha, x hi - Nguy c mt nh - Lm h hng, gy thit hi ti sn cho ngi dn v nh nc - Nguy c nh hng n tnh mng dn c th - Lm gim gi tr t ai ti khu vc b ngp lt, st l - Gim tnh thanh khon ca th trng - nh hng n quyn s dng v cc quyn c bn ca ngi dn gn lin vi bt ng sn Cc gii php thch ng - Quy hoch cao trnh nn - m bo cc hnh lang thot l an ton - Trnh quy hoch v tr c nguy c b ngp do nc bin dng - Xem xt tc ng tng th ca quy hoch mt khu vc n cc khu vc ln cn - Quy hoch code nn - Gii php k thut cng trnh (p nn, b bao, nh trn cc, ) - m bo cc yu t k thut xy dng (h kt cu, mi, vch bao che..) - Quy hoch s dng t hp l - Khng pht trin dn c v cc d n pht trin th trong khu vc ngp - Tng cng cng tc qun l, gim st sau quy hoch - Tng cng cng tc kim tra, gim st qu trnh thc thi quy hoch

Cc cng trnh nh ca, cng trnh cng cng, h tng k thut

Gi tr t ai v th trng bt ng sn

68

Bng B9. Mt s gii php thch ng vi bin i kh hu trong lnh vc cng nghip v dch v
Cc i tng Cc tc ng Sn xut cng nghip/ Cc dch v th Tc ng n mi trng lm vic ca cng nhn Tng chi ph h thng lm mt, iu ha Nhit , din bin ma thay i, bo l xut hin thng xuyn hn lm nh hng ln n dch v Ri ro Lm gim nng sut sn xut cng nghip Tng gi thnh sn phm, tng chi ph cho cc ngnh dch v Gim lng khch, tng chi ph vn hnh i vi ngnh du lch Doanh s bn hng gim Tng nhu cu dng nc Gia tng chi ph - Tng hiu qu ca h thng cp nc - Gii thiu v khuyn khch cc gii php tit kim nc Gii php thch ng - Ci thin mi trng lm vic ca cng nhn - S dng cc vt liu mi nhm gim nhit v tit kim nng lng - Thit k cc cng trnh thch ng vi bin i kh hu - Tng cng din tch cy xanh

Sn xut cng nghip

Tc ng n ngun nguyn- vt liu nh hng n sn lng v nng sut Tc ng n qu trnh vn chuyn, phn phi hng ha - p dng nhiu phng n vn chuyn hng ha, chun b cc phng n d tr hng ha d phng Thit hi ti sn Suy gim sn lng v nng sut Nguy c pht tn cc cht thi cng nghip ra mi trng - Kim sot cc khu vc chn lp cht thi rn v cc khu vc x l nc thi cng nghip - C gii php ch ng phng trnh v x l khi c tc ng bt thng - Gii php quy hoch tng th th - Quy hoch cao trnh nn - nh gi v thm nh cc d n trn quan im mi trng v bin i kh hu - Ch trng nh gi t nhin, iu kin a hnh khi lp d n - Ch trng nh gi tc ng mi trng v mi trng chin lc - Gii php quy hoch tng th th - Quy hoch cao trnh nn

Sn xut cng nghip

Ngp lt cc khu vc nh my, khu cng nghip

Hn ch/thu hp qu t pht trin cng nghip

Gim ngun u t vo cng nghip Thit hi v gi tr u t khu cng nghip

Cc dch v th

Ngp lt cc khu vc cng vin, khu du lch

Thit hi ti sn Gim ngun thu

Gim din tch khai thc kinh doanh Tng chi ph u t Ngng tr giao thng lin lc nh hng ln n doanh thu dch v du lch

- Kt hp vi cc gii php thch ng v mt giao thng

Cc ph lc: Ph lc B 69

Bng B10. Mt s bin thch ng vi bin i kh hu trong lnh vc nng lng

Cc i tng Cc tc ng Nhu cu s dng nng lng Gia tng nhu cu lm mt, iu ha Tng nhu cu bm thot nc th do ngp lt Ri ro Tng nhu cu nng lng v chi ph nng lng Tng nhu cu dng in Gii php thch ng - Gii php k thut cng trnh, v bao che, mi. Gii php ta nh xanh, tit kim nng lng - S dng vt liu a phng thch ng mi trng - C gii php s dng nng lng hiu qu, gim nhu cu s dng nng lng - Tng cng tuyn truyn v gio dc trong tit kim nng lng

Ngun cung cp nng lng

Nhit tng lm gim hiu sut lm mt nh my in Tng tr lng nc cho thy in Tng nguy c bo, lt

Tng gi thnh v gim hiu sut sn xut

- Gii php k thut cng ngh nng cao hiu sut nh my - Hn ch tht thot, gim gi thnh cp in Thun li cho cp in vi iu kin - C quy hoch ngun nng lng quc gia, d tr nc cho thy in m bo d tr nc u ngun nh hng n hot ng khai thc - Tng cng h thng cnh bo sm kh t v dn khoan Lm thit hi ti sn Gin on hot ng cp in - Quy hoch xy dng m bo code nn chng ngp

Cc nh my nhit in b ngp lt

C s vt cht ca mng li cung cp

Nhit dy dn tng

Gim hiu sut truyn ti trn ng dy in

- Nghin cu s dng vt liu v cng ngh mi - m bo cc tiu chun thit k v tiu chun xy dng cng trnh

Mng li truyn dn (ng H hng thit b, gin on dy, trm bin p) b ngp cung cp in Nguy c n mn v h hng ng dy trn khng H hng cc ng dy ngm Cc cng trnh thit b ng dy cp ngm Cc ng ng dn gas, kh t c nguy c b h hi B ngp v h hng B n mn bi nc mn Gin on cung cp, tht thot kh gas - Quy hoch cao trnh nn - Quy hoch tt mng li cp thot nc, m bo cht lng cc tiu chun k thut chng r r, tht thot

70

Bng B11. Cc gii php k thut nhm thch ng vi bin i kh hu trong lnh vc nng lng
Tc ng, ri ro Gii php Loi gii php Kh nng thch ng - Hiu qu iu ha khng kh gia tng s lm gim chi ph in mc d c chi ph u t ban u cao hn. - Tiu chun hiu qu s gip gim pht thi kh nh knh Gia tng chi ph nng lng Tiu chun lp v nhit lm lnh Hiu chnh nguy c - Tng cch nhit trn v gim h s bng rm l nhng gii php c tnh hiu qu kinh t cao. - Tiu chun s gip gim pht thi kh nh knh Nhng vn ngp lt v tn nhit nh my in Chnh sch quy hoch v Ngn nga tr nh my thy in tc ng Ngn nga tc ng - Vic cho php cc nh my in nm dc sng cn phi xem xt n cc tc ng tim tng ca ngp lt - Vic cho php nhng nh my in ven bin v nh my du/kh t cn phi xem xt n cc tc ng ca vic gia tng mc nc bin v cc hin tng thi tit nguy him - Gim st hay thay i ch dng chy v hnh thi sng c th yu cu s thay i trong hng tip cn qun l ngun nc (Nash v Gleick, 1993) - S thay i v nhu cu dng in v sn xut thy in c th yu cu s thay i cng sut thit k - C quan chnh ph c th cung cp thng tin v cc gii php tit kim nng lng (v d, chng trnh dn nhn sn phm) - S tr cp cho gi in lm bp mo th trng v to nn s tiu th lng ph. Tc ng ln nhm thu nhp thp c th c ci thin thng qua nhng chng trnh mc tiu

Gia tng chi ph nng lng Tiu chun hiu qu Hiu chnh lm lnh my iu ha khng kh nguy c

Ngp lt v nhng tc ng Quy hoch v tr do cc hin tng thi tit nh my khai thc in nguy him ven bin/ kh t Mt cng sut pht in ca nh my thy in Thay i cch tip cn vi vic qun l ngun nc v thy in

Chia s mt mt

Thay i trong yu cu cng Xem xt nhu cu v sut in cng sut thy in Gia tng chi ph lm lnh khng gian Tng chi ph in quc gia Chng trnh thng tin

iu chnh nguy c iu chnh nguy c Chia s ri ro

Gim tr gi cho nng lng

Cc ph lc: Ph lc B 71

Bng B12. Cc gii php thch ng tng hp cho cc vng, min

Nhm gii php Cc gii php c th thch ng Nhm gii php quy hoch Quy hoch s dng t: - Phn vng nng nghip v trng trt, vng khai thc du lch, vng bo tn t nhin - Cc im dn c nng thn Quy hoch h thng h tng k thut: Giao thng, ngun nc cp v mng li cp thot nc Cc ngnh lin quan Cc ngnh nng nghip, thy hi sn; cc ngnh sn xut; ngnh du lch Cc u tin c bit ti cc vng min

- Cn c quan tm ti tt c cc vng min nh l nhng chin lc di hn nhm tng cng kh nng thch ng - Cc vng bin v hi o cn tin hnh quy hoch cc vng bo tn; quy hoch phn cc vng khai thc du lch, vng dn c trnh cc khu vc c nguy c tn thng cao do nc bin dng v cc hin tng cc oan ca bin i kh hu - Cn xem xt yu t lin vng i vi quy hoch cc vng min, nhm m bo gii php khng gy tn hi cho cc khu vc ln cn

Hu ht cc ngnh, - Cn c bit quan tm cc khu vc c nguy c ngp hoc l lt c bit cc ngnh - Vng ni v cao nguyn cn c quy hoch bo v v s dng hp l giao thng v h ngun nc tng k thut Ngnh cng nghip v sn xut Pht trin th, sn xut cng nghip, du lch - Quy hoch code nn cn c c bit lu tm ti khu vc th ven bin v cc vng trng thp. - Cc vng ng bng c bit cc vng ven knh rch, vng trng, thp cn quan tm n code nn v tc ng ca thy triu, nc bin dng. - Vng bin v hi o cn quan tm n thy hi sn, nng nghip, du lch, - Vng ng bng cn quan tm n nng nghip, v sinh y t v dch bnh - Vng ni v cao nguyn ch trng quan tm n cc vn giao thng, h tng, cp nc, bo v rng v ti nguyn thin nhin - Vng th c bit quan tm vn v giao thng, h tng v code nn

Quy hoch code nn cho cc khu vc dn c, sn xut, du lch

Quy hoch ngnh (ty thuc theo tng a phng)

Ty tng ngnh v a phng

Nhm gii php cng trnh

Xy dng h thng iu, v h thng thot nc

Cc ngnh nng nghip, thy hi sn, cc khu dn c, th, cng nghip, sn xut Ngun nc, chng ngp lt

- Bo v t canh tc nng nghip hoc t th ti cc vng bin hi o, ng bng v th

p thy li, h cha

- Vng nng thn vi cc cng trnh thu li v vng ni vi cc p, h cha

Nh trn cc, hoc nng Xy dng, c s - Cc vng ng bng, ven sng rch nn nh h tng, pht trin - Cc cng trnh xy dng th v nng thn th Gii php vt liu xy dng cng trnh

72

Bng B12. Cc gii php thch ng tng hp cho cc vng, min (tip)
Nhm gii php thch ng Gii php chnh sch kinh t Cc gii php c th Cc ngnh lin quan ng ph trong lnh vc pht trin th v nng thn Cc u tin c bit ti cc vng min

Cc chnh sch ca nh nc v a phng trong ti nh c, chnh sch v t ai, n b gii ta Chnh sch v thu v tr cp u i

- Hu ht cc th v nng thn. Cn c bit lu tm ti cc i tng ngho, dn tc thiu s

Hu ht cc ngnh sn xut - Hu ht cc vng v lnh vc v dch v nhm lm gim mc tn thng cho ngi b tc ng - Tt c cc vng th v im dn c nng thn - Cn c bit lu tm ti cc i tng ngho, dn tc thiu s

Cng c gio dc x hi

Tuyn truyn, vn ng, Tt c cc ngnh c bit l ngnh Ti nguyn v gio dc nng cao thc ca cng ng, c bit trong Mi trng, Gio dc cc lnh vc y t v v sinh dch bnh, trong lnh vc bo v ti nguyn thin nhin, tit kim nng lng Ngin cu iu chnh ging loi, thay i ma v v ch trong nng nghip, gii php k thut vt liu xy dng, cng ngh x l nc C ch gim st, quan trc; h thng cnh bo sm; h thng cung cp thng tin qun l Ty thuc tng ngnh, tp trung vo cc lnh vc nng nghip, thy hi sn, sn xut cng nghip

Gii php k thut ca tng ngnh

- Hu ht cc vng v cc lnh vc.

Cc cng c qun l khc

Tt c cc ngnh nhm thch ng vi mc nc bin dng v cc hin tng kh hu bt thng

- Cnh bo sm v nc bin dng ti cc vng bin, hi o, nng thn v th - Cc thng tin trong lnh vc quy hoch v pht trin ngnh tt c cc a phng