PHT TRIN & HI NHP S 8 (18) - Thng 01-02/2013

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34
1. Gii thiu
Sau khi hnh thnh v i vo
hot ng, th trng chng khon
(TTCK) VN c nhng ng
gp nht nh cho nn kinh t. Tuy
nhin sau giai on tng trng
nng, th trng thng ri vo
trng thi mt cn bng, ch s gi
chng khon lin tc st gim. Bn
cnh , khng hong kinh t ton
cu 2008 khin cho kinh t VN
phi ng u vi nhiu thch
thc. Nhng thng tin tiu cc v
kinh t v m tc ng khng
nh ti s suy gim ca ton th
trng. Nhiu cu hi c t
ra, trong c cu hi: Vy, gia
nhng nhn t kinh t v m vi
TTCK VN c thc s tn ti mi
tng quan hay khng?
Nm 2011 l nm chng kin
nn kinh t VN c nhiu bin ng,
c bit l theo chiu hng bt n,
TTCK st gim nghim trng km
theo nhng bin ng bt thng.
K tha v c chn lc cc nhn
t, bi nghin cu kim nh mi
tng quan ny ti VN bng m
hnh hi quy vi s liu thu thp
n thng 9/2011 nhm phn nh
nhng din bin ca kinh t v m
v ca th trng. Trn c s kt
qu phn tch, bi nghin cu
xut cc kin mi, hu ch cho
vic xy dng v hon thin cc
chnh sch iu hnh v qun l
kinh t v m. Cc kin xut
khng ch tp trung nng cao tnh
hiu qu cho cc chnh sch kinh t
v m m cn cho c TTCK. iu
ny ht sc quan trng v cn thit
trong bi cnh nn kinh t ang
ng u vi nhiu kh khn v
thch thc nh hin nay.
2. C s l thuyt v khung
phn tch
TTCK l mt ch th chu tc
ng ca nhiu nhn t, bao gm
cc nhn t kinh t v m v vi m.
Mi quan h gia cc bin kinh t
v m vi ch s chng khon
i din cho tnh hnh ca TTCK
- c nhiu nh nghin cu
trn th gii quan tm. Stephen A.
Ross (1976) pht trin L thuyt
kinh doanh chnh lch gi (APT
Arbitrage Pricing Theory) gii
thch t sut sinh li ca chng
khon trn th trng. L thuyt
APT cho rng t sut sinh li k
vng ca chng khon c xc
Phn tch tc ng ca cc nhn t kinh t
v m n th trng chng khon VN
PGS.TS. PHan TH BCH nGuyT & THS. PHM DnG PHnG THo
i hc Kinh t TP. HCM
N
ghin cu thc nghim trn th gii v tc ng ca cc nhn t kinh t v
m n TTCK th cc kt qu nghin cu v ch ny c nhiu s khc bit
gia cc th trng, thm ch c kt qu nghin cu tri chiu nhau. Sau thi
gian hnh thnh v i vo hot ng, th trng chng khon VN c nhng ng gp
nht nh cho nn kinh t.Tuy nhin th trng vn tim n kh nhiu nhng bin ng
bt thng v tim n nhiu ri ro. S thng trm ca th trng trong thi gian qua do
tc ng bi nhiu nhn t khc nhau trong khng th loi tr tc ng ca cc nhn
t kinh t v m. Bi nghin cu ny nhm mc tiu kim nh ti VN c tn ti mi tng
quan gia nhng nhn t kinh t v m vi th trng chng khon VN hay khng? Kt qu
nghin cu cho thy cc bin: cung tin, lm pht, sn lng cng nghip (i din cho
hot ng kinh t thc), gi du th gii th hin mi tng quan cng chiu vi TTCK;
cn cc bin li sut v t gi hi oi gia VND/USD th hin mi tng quan ngc
chiu vi TTCK. Trn c s cc kt qu nghin cu, nhm tc gi xut cc gi chnh
sch cho iu hnh kinh t v m v cho th trng vi mc tiu hng ti pht trin mt
TTCK chuyn nghip.
T kha: Nhn t kinh t v m, th trng chng khon VN.
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nh bng phng trnh k nhn t:
Cc nhn t trong m hnh APT
c th l cc nhn t kinh t v m
hoc cc nhn t kinh t vi m.
Nhiu nh khoa hc chng minh
bng thc nghim tc ng ca
cc nhn t v m nh sn lng
cng nghip, ch s gi tiu dng,
cung tin, GDP, t gi hi oi, li
sut, lm pht, ri ro chnh tr, gi
du, khu vc mu dch, v cc ch
s chng khon th trng khu
vc n TTCK nh Merton
(1973); Nelson (1976), Jaffe &
M&elker (1976), Fama & Schwert
(1977) Ross (1976); Chen, Roll,
& Ross (1986); Jorion (1991);
Ely & Robinson (1997); Ferson
& Harvey (1994); Mukherjee &
Naka (1995); Humpe & Macmillan
(2007); Yin-Wong Cheung & Kon
S.Lai (1998). Nhn chung, ti cc
quc gia pht trin th hin r
tc ng ca cc nhn t v m
nTTCK. Tuy nhin, nghin cu
thc nghim ti TTCK mi ni
li tm thy kt qu va c nhng
im tng ng xen ln vi nhiu
khc bit so vi cc TTCK pht
trin. Hai khc bit c bn l:
khng phi tt c cc bin s kinh
t v m theo l thuyt c tc ng
n TTCK u th hin tc ng
n TTCK mi ni hoc ang pht
trin; v thm ch c nhng tc
ng ca mt s nhn t v m n
TTCK th hin tri chiu so vi
cc l thuyt kinh in. V d, ti
cc th trng mi ni, bn thn li
sut khng phi l nhn t tc ng
nhng chnh lch t sut sinh li
v s khc bit v mc ri ro
th nh hng n t sut sinh li
vn c phn (Chen, Roll & Ross
1986). Ti nhiu th trng mi
ni, ch s ri ro chnh tr v gi
du cho thy s tng quan yu
vi TTCK (Harvey 1995a; Erb,
Harvey & Viskanta 1996). Kwon,
Shin & Bacon (1997) nghin cu
ti th trng Hn Quc vi d liu
thng t 1/1980 n 12/1992 cho
thy rng TTCK Hn Quc nhy
cm hn vi hot ng kinh t thc
v hot ng thng mi quc t
so vi TTCK M v Nht, th hin
mi tng quan gia cc nhn t
nh t gi hi oi, cn cn thng
mi, cung tin v ch s sn xut
vi TTCK. Kwon v Shin (1999)
li tip tc kim nh liu hot ng
kinh t thc ti Hn Quc c th
gii thch c nhng bin ng
trn th trng chng khon nc
ny khng, bng cch s dng kim
nh nhn qu Granger v m hnh
vector hiu chnh sai s (VECM).
Kt qu l: TTCK Hn Quc phn
nh trong di hn s thay i ca
cc nhn t kinh t v m vo ch
s gi c phiu. Maysami v Koh
(2000) nhn thy rng nhng thay
i trong hai ch s o lng hot
ng kinh t thc l sn lng
cng nghip v thng mi khng
c s tch hp cng bc vi nhng
thay i ca TTCK Singapore. Tuy
nhin, nhng thay i ca TTCK
li to ra mt dng quan h ng
tch hp vi nhng thay i mc
gi c, cung tin, li sut ngn hn,
di hn v t gi hi oi. Trong khi
vic iu chnh ca li sut v t gi
gp phn quan trng ti mi quan
h ng tch hp th lm pht v
cung tin li khng c nh vy.
Hn na, ch s TTCK Singapore
c mi quan h ng tch hp thun
chiu ng k vi TTCK ca Nht
v M. C mt cht khc bit vi
kt lun trn khi Maysami v cng
s (2004) tin hnh nghin cu li
ti Singapore. Kt lun ca h l
ch s TTCK Singapore v ch s
ngnh bt ng sn hnh thnh mi
quan h ng tch hp vi tt c
cc bin s kinh t c la chn
gm li sut ngn hn, di hn, sn
lng cng nghip, lm pht, t gi
v cung tin. c bit, i vi ch
s ti chnh, hot ng kinh t thc
v cung tin th s lin h khng
ng k. Ibrahim & Yusoff (2001)
khi nghin cu ti Malaysia ch
ra rng gi chng khon dng nh
chu nhiu tc ng hn t nhng
thay i ca cc nhn t mang tnh
ni a, in hnh l cung tin. c
bit, cung tin mang li mt hiu
ng dng cho gi chng khon
trong ngn hn, nhng li tc ng
ngc chiu nu xt trong di hn.
T gi hi oi tc ng nghch
chiu ti gi chng khon di
hn; cn sn lng cng nghip
PHT TRIN & HI NHP S 8 (18) - Thng 01-02/2013
Nghin Cu & Trao i
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v lm pht th mang ti hiu ng
dng trong di hn. Cng cng
quan im ny, Rahman v cng
s (2009) cho rng trong di hn th
d tr ngoi hi v sn lng cng
nghip tc ng thun chiu ti gi
chng khon, cn cung tin, li
sut v t gi th li dn ti mt nh
hng ngc chiu ti th trng
chng khon Malaysia. Mohamed
& cng s (2009) tip cn vn
ny da trn m hnh hiu chnh
sai s (ECM), h tm kim s lin
h gia cc bin s kinh t v m
gm lm pht, cung tin, t gi v
bin ng ch s th trng chng
khon Malaysia cho giai on trc
khng hong (d liu t 1987 n
1995) v sau khng hong (t 1999
n 2007). H kt lun rng trc
v sau khng hong, lm pht c
s tng quan dng vi ch s gi
chng khon, cn cung tin th tc
ng ngc chiu vi gi chng
khon. Trong khi , t gi hi oi
th c mi quan h thun chiu vi
gi chng khon trong giai on
trc khng hong nhng li tc
ng ngc chiu vi gi chng
khon sau khng hong.
Bi nghin cu chn lc 6 nhn
t thng gp trong cc kt qu
nghin cu ca th gii xem xt
c th nhm tm ra khung l thuyt
phn tch ph hp cho trng hp
VN.
Tm li, cc kt qu nghin
cu khng ng nht vi cc l
thuyt kinh in, c bit l cc
nghin cu tin hnh cc nc
c nn kinh t mi ni.
3. Phng php nghin cu
Da trn khung l thuyt nu
trn cng nh ph hp vi c
th v thng tin v kinh t VN,
6 nhn t v m sau y c
chn xem xt tng quan vi
th trng chng khon: Cung
tin, Lm pht, Hot ng kinh
t thc, Li sut, T gi hi oi,
Gi du.
D liu th hin tnh hnh ca
TTCK l ch s VN-Index theo
thng trong giai on t thng
7/2000 n thng 9/ 2011 (135
quan st). Ch s VN-Index theo
thng c tnh l trung bnh ca
ch s VN-Index ng ca cui
mi ngy giao dch trong thng,
phn nh xc thc v gim s
sai lch so vi vic ly ch s u
thng hoc cui thng.
Theo l thuyt, tng trng
GDP l bin i din tt hn cho
cc hot ng kinh t thc, tuy
nhin do hn ch khng thu thp
c s liu tng trng GDP
theo thng ca VN nn ch s sn
lng cng nghip c chn
thay th.
D liu c thu thp theo
thng t cc ngun sau: H
thng c s d liu cc ch tiu
ti chnh ca Qu Tin t Quc
t (IFS-IMF); Tng cc Thng
k VN (GSO); Ngn hng Nh
nc VN; y ban Chng khon
Nh nc.
Bi nghin cu p dng kim
nh ng tch hp theo phng
php kim nh nghim n v
phn d Engle Granger xc
nh liu cc bin s kinh t v
m c la chn c mi tng
quan vi th trng chng khon
ti VN hay khng. Ngoi ra,
trnh hin tng hi quy gi,
kim nh nghim n v cng
c s dng xem xt tnh
dng ca cc bin s. Sau khi
kim nh, bi nghin cu dng
phng trnh c lng hi quy
bi phn nh mi tng quan
Bng tm tt k vng tng quan gia cc nhn t v m vi TTCK
Nhn t
Tng
quan
L thuyt v bng chng thc nghim
Hot ng
kinh t thc
+
Fama (1981, 1990); Schwert (1990); Canova & De Nicolo
(1995); Bodie (1976); Geske & Roll (1983); Rozeff (1984);
Pearce & Roley (1983, 1985); Fischer & Merton (1984);
Chen, Roll, & Ross (1986); Barro (1990); Domian & Louton
(1997); Foresti (2006)
Cung tin + Chen, Roll, Ross (1986); Wong (2005); Mukherjee (1995)
Lm pht - Fama (1991); Mohamed & cng s (2009)
Li sut - Fama (1981)
T gi hi oi + / -
Bailey & Chung (1995); Ajayi (1996); Granger (2000);
Gautam Goswami & Sung-Chang Jung (1997)
Gi du + / -
Ferson & Harvey (1994); Hosseini S.M, Z.Ahmad & Y,W.
Lai (2011); Mohan N& H.Singh (2011); Cong et al.(2008);
Gogineni (2008); Weidenmier, Davis, & Aliaga-Diaz (2008).
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Nghin Cu & Trao i
37
gia cc bin, v cng thc hin
hu kim nh nhm nng cao
mc xc thc ca phng trnh
hi quy nh kim nh Wald
(kim nh rng buc tuyn tnh),
kim nh Durbin-Watson (kim
nh hin tng t tng quan).
Mc ch ca nghin cu l
xc nh tc ng ca cc nhn
t kinh t v m n TTCK VN,
v vy m hnh nghin cu c
dng :
VNI
t
=
1
+
2
M
2
t +
3
CPI
t
+

4
IP
t
+
5
R
t
+
6
EX
t
+
7
OP
t
+ u
t
Cc nh u t trn th trng
chng khon thc hin u t
thng da vo cc d bo, tc
l VNI
t
chu tc ng ca cc
bin CPI v M2 c tr (t-k).
Tuy nhin, ti VN do tnh trng
cp nht thng tin cha tt nn
thng tin c cng b bao
hm tr, tc l s liu CPI v
M2 c cng b l da trn vic
thay i gi c hng ha v cung
tin xy ra. V vy, chng ti
khng xt hai bin s ny vi
tr.
4. Kt qu v tho lun
Cc bin CPI, R, OP c tnh
dng. Cc bin VNI, M2, IP, EX
l khng dng I(0) v l dng
I(1). Do , phng trnh hi
quy l thc, cc bin c quan h
ng tch hp.
VNI
t
= 2662,640 +
0,000226M2
t
+ 495,1581CPI
t
+ 0,009985IP
t
- 35,20545R
t
-
0,166722EX
t
+ 4,423258OP
t
+
u
t
R
2
iu chnh = 52,96% ngha
l s thay i ca cc bin kinh
t v m gii thch c 52,96%
s bin ng ca TTCK.
M hnh hi quy c p-value
< 0,01: c lng hi quy t
ngha thng k vi tin cy
99%.
Hin tng a cng tuyn
khng ng k v bo m
tnh hiu qu (effciency) v tnh
bn vng (consistency) ca m
hnh hi quy, khng loi b bin
s no ca m hnh.
Kim nh nghim n v
phn d cho kt qu phn d l
mt chui dng. iu ny khng
nh cc bin trong hai m hnh
l ng tch hp, tc l c tn ti
quan h cn bng trong di hn
gia cc bin kinh t v m ny
vi th trng chng khon.
Kim nh Wald kim nh
rng buc tuyn tnh cc h s
trong m hnh, xem cc h s hi
quy c ngha khng. Kt qu:
p-value < mc ngha = 5%,
nn ta bc b gi thit Ho, tc
l cc h s hi quy khng ng
thi bng 0, m hnh hi quy l
c ngha.
Tm li, kt qu ca m hnh
hi quy cho thy: Khi cc nhn
Variable Coeffcient Std, Error t-Statistic Prob,
M2 0,000226 0,000107 2,120785 0,0359
CPI 495,1581 1454,838 0,340353 0,7341
IP 0,009985 0,003137 3,183326 0,0018
R -35,20545 9,533841 -3,692682 0,0003
EX -0,166722 0,035176 -4,739677 0,0000
OP 4,423258 1,391436 3,178916 0,0019
C 2662,640 499,1871 5,333952 0,0000
R-squared 0,550651 Mean dependent var 399,1613
Adjusted R-squared 0,529587 S,D, dependent var 242,6059
S.E. of regression 166,3952 Akaike info criterion 13,11707
Sum squared resid 3543981, Schwarz criterion 13,26771
Log likelihood -878,4020 Hannan-Quinn criter, 13,17828
F-statistic 26,14273 Durbin-Watson stat 0,222942
Prob(F-statistic) 0,000000
Bng tm tt cc bin trong m hnh
STT
Tn
bin
Ni dung
n v
o lng
1 VNI Ch s gi chng khon, th hin cho TTCK im
2 M2 Cung tin M2, th hin cho nhn t cung tin T ng
3 CPI
Ch s gi tiu dng theo thng, th hin cho nhn t lm
pht
%
4 IP
Sn lng cng nghip, th hin cho hot ng kinh t
thc
T ng
5 R Li sut cho vay ngn hn, th hin cho nhn t li sut %
6 EX
T gi VND/USD theo IMF, th hin cho nhn t t gi hi
oi
VND/USD
7 OP
trung bnh gi du th FOB giao ngay mi ngy trn th
gii, c dng th hin nhn t gi du.
USD/barrel
PHT TRIN & HI NHP S 8 (18) - Thng 01-02/2013
Nghin Cu & Trao i
38
t khc khng i, ti VN :
- Cung tin tng quan dng
vi TTCK (+): Kt qu ny tng
ng vi cc nghin cu trc
y v mi tng quan gia
cung tin v TTCK. Cung tin
tng l iu kin to ra d tha
tng phng tin thanh ton.
y cng chnh l iu kin
dng tin chy vo TTCK, lm
tng ch s gi chng khon.
- Li sut tng quan m vi
TTCK (-). Li sut cho vay ti
VN thng tng khi xy ra lm
pht do chnh ph tht cht tn
dng nhm kim sot lm pht.
C th thy li sut tng cng l
mt tn hiu cho bit lm pht
ang c chiu hng gia tng. Tn
hiu ny l d nhn bit. Ngoi
ra, hin tng tm l u t theo
by n v tm l chi phi hnh
vi ca nh u t trn TTCK kh
mnh m cng khin cho ch s
gi chng khon st gim khi c
cc tn hiu v bt n kinh t v
m nh li sut tng. Do , trong
iu kin cc nhn t khc khng
i, khi li sut cho vay tng 1%
th ch s VN-Index gim 35,205
im. Kt lun ny tng ng
vi cc nghin cu trc.
- Lm pht tng quan dng
vi TTCK. Kt qu ny tng
ng vi kt qu tm thy th
trng Malaysia (Mohamed &
cng s, 2009) nhng li ngc
vi nhng l thuyt kinh in.
Tuy nhin bin CPI trong m
hnh c ngha thng k thp,
khng phn nh chnh xc tc
ng thc s ca nhn t lm
pht n TTCK. Mt trong nhng
nguyn nhn l do cch tnh ch
s CPI ca VN mang tnh c th
dn n biu hin bt thng ca
CPI. Hng nghin cu tip theo
ca chng ti l s tm mt bin
cng c cho nhn t lm pht.
- Sn lng cng nghip tng
quan dng vi TTCK (+) : Khi
sn lng cng nghip tng 1.000
t ng/ thng th ch s VN-
Index tng 9,985 im. Kt qu
ny tng t nhng nghin cu
trc v ph hp vi thc t VN.
Khi sn lng cng nghip tng,
nn kinh t tng trng, trin
vng u t kh quan, cc doanh
nghip c nhiu kh nng kinh
doanh sinh li cao, do thu ht
dng vn u t vo TTCK. Khi
nn kinh t tng trng, nhu cu
huy ng vn qua knh TTCK
ca cc doanh nghip cng gia
tng nhm p ng nhu cu m
rng hot ng, lng hng ha
chng khon trn th trng cng
hp dn hn, v th, TTCK s
tng trng khi nn kinh t tng
trng.
- T gi hi oi c tng quan
m vi TTCK (-) : khi t gi tng
(VND mt gi) 100 ng/USD
th ch s VN-Index st gim
16,672 im. VN thng xuyn
l mt quc gia nhp siu, k
thut khoa hc cng cha thc
s pht trin nn ch yu phi
nhp my mc, nguyn vt liu,
t nc ngoi. USD l mt
ngoi t c gi tr mnh so vi
VND, gi c nhiu sn phm cn
c trn USD nh gi, doanh
nghip a chung loi hnh vay
bng USD, ngi dn c tm l
nm gi USD nh l hnh thc
tr n trnh ri ro. Nhng iu
trn dn n khi t gi tng,
VND mt gi to ra tm l bt
an cho nh u t. C th xem
cng l mt tn hiu rng nhiu
bt n kinh t v m s n, do
, TTCK s st gim.
- Gi du th gii c tng
quan dng vi TTCK: Khi gi
du tng 1 USD/barrel th ch
s VN-Index tng 4,423 im.
Theo l thuyt, mi tng quan
gia gi du vi TTCK c th l
dng hoc m, s c mi tng
quan thun (+) gia gi du vi
gi chng khon trong cc nc
xut khu du m nhng li c
mi tng quan nghch (-) i
vi nhng nc nhp khu du
m. VN khng phi l mt quc
gia xut khu du m m li th
hin tng quan dng gia gi
du vi TTCK l v thc cht bin
ng gi xng du khi th hin ra
trn th trng VN chu nhiu s
can thip t pha Nh nc, nn
tn hiu pht ra t nhn t ny
b bp mo.
5. Gi chnh sch
Trn c s kt qu phn tch
trn v bi hc kinh nghim
rt ra t cc l thuyt v nghin
cu trn th gii, bi nghin cu
xut mt s kin cho vic
xy dng v hon thin cc chnh
sch iu hnh v qun l kinh
t v m:
5.1. Chnh sch kinh t v m
cn hng n to s n nh,
bn vng cho th trng chng
khon.
Th trng chng khon l
hn th biu ca nn kinh t, tc
l n phn nh nhng g c k
vng s xy ra trong nn kinh
t. Kt qu phn tch hi quy
cho thy cc nhn t kinh t v
m thc s c tc ng n th
trng chng khon. Do , vic
ban hnh v qun l cc chnh
sch kinh t v m ca Chnh
ph khng ch hng n vic
iu hnh nn kinh t m cn cn
phi quan tm n s pht trin
bn vng cho th trng chng
khon. Trong qu trnh nghin
cu xut v sa i cc chnh
S 8 (18) - Thng 01- 02/2013 PHT TRIN & HI NHP
Nghin Cu & Trao i
39
sch kinh t v m ni chung v
th trng chng khon ni ring,
cn nghin cu hnh vi ca cc
ch th kinh t c th nh hng
n vic ra cc quyt nh kinh t
cng nh gi c th trng ra sao,
chnh l vic ng dng ca ti
chnh hc hnh vi trong qun l
bi v trn thc t cc nh u t
khng phi lun lun hnh ng
theo l tr. Thc t nu th trng
hi 3 yu t: hnh vi bt hp
l ca nh u t, hiu ng bt
hp l mang tnh h thng, v
gii hn kinh doanh chnh lch
gi, th l lc m hin tng
gi c phiu s b nh gi sai.
V vy ngoi nhng nn tng
php quy c bn xy dng cc
chnh sch, cc nh hoch nh
chnh sch khng nn xem nh
tc ng mang tnh hiu ng m
ng khi ban hnh, iu chnh
cc chnh sch ni chung v qun
l TTCK ni ring.
5.2. Nng cao tnh hiu qu ca
thng tin v m.
TTCK phn ng rt mnh
trc cc thng tin. Trong thc
t, c nhng nhm thng tin trng
khp, c thng tin mang tnh
tr nhng cng c nhng thng
tin mang tnh d bo. i vi cc
nh hoch nh chnh sch, khi
a ra nhng chin lc ngn,
trung v di hn th thng tin t
cc chin lc ny s c cc
nh u t tip nhn, phn tch
v nh gi a vo d bo
gi chng khon trn th trng
v xy dng chin lc u t .
chnh xc, minh bch v kp
thi ca thng tin s c nhng
tc ng ln th trng v hnh
vi ca cc nh u t. Do ,
vic cng b thng tin cn c
thc hin chuyn nghip v c
kim sot bi hnh lang php l
trnh tnh trng kinh doanh
ni gin, li ch nhm lm bp
mo v ri lon th trng.
5.3. Chnh sch tin t trong tng
quan vi TTCK.
Chnh sch tin t l qu trnh
qun l cung tin ca Ngn hng
Nh nc hng ti mt li sut
mong mun t c nhng
mc ch n nh v tng trng
kinh t. Chnh sch tin t ti
VN tt yu phi la chn mc
tiu hng n c th, ph hp
vi c th pht trin ca tng
giai on. D c la chn mc
tiu no th chnh sch tin t
cn c l trnh c th, trnh gy
ra nhng c sc tm l cho nh
u t, gy nh hng tiu cc
cho s pht trin ca th trng
chng khon. S suy gim ca
TTCK - n lt n - s li nh
hng ngc n dng vn vo
nn kinh t, gp phn gy kh
khn cho vic pht huy tc dng
ca cc chnh sch. Hn th na,
th trng chng khon VN cn
non tr nn cha bn vng, d b
st gim do tc ng ca chnh
sch tht cht tin t. V vy,
Ngn hng Nh nc cn trnh
nhng ng thi bt ng trong
iu hnh chnh sch. Chnh sch
cho vay theo li sut tha thun
cho nhng khon vay trung di
hn cng l mt gii php gip
PHT TRIN & HI NHP S 8 (18) - Thng 01-02/2013
Nghin Cu & Trao i
40
bnh n th trng li sut. Tuy
nhin, thc hin chnh sch
ny, cn c s ng thun ca
cc ngn hng trong ton h
thng v s kim sot cht ch
ca ngn hng nh nc. Vic c
mt s ngn hng nh khng
tim lc ti chnh nhng vn huy
ng vn bt chp tnh hiu qu
ca vn huy ng v vn cho vay
lm lng on th trng li
sut. Ngn hng Nh nc nn l
ngi t chc, gim st duy
tr mt th trng li sut bnh n
bng cc quy nh c th v ch
ti nghim ngt phng nga
ri ro h thng.
T gi l mt trong nhng
bin s phc tp v nhy cm
nht trong iu hnh kinh t v
m hin nay. Mi s bin ng
ca n tc ng n hng lot
cc mc tiu i khng nhau:
tng t gi khuyn khch xut
khu th c th nh hng xu
n doanh nghip trong nc c
nguyn liu u vo l hng nhp
khu, tng ri ro cho cc doanh
nghip c n vay bng ngoi t,
gnh nng n nn ca Chnh Ph,
thu ht vn u t iu hnh
t gi thc s l mt nhim v rt
phc tp. V vy bt c s thay
i no trong gi tr tin ng
u phi t trong mi quan h
vi cc bin s v m khc ca
nn kinh t m bo rng
s iu chnh t gi l ph hp,
p ng c s cn bng tng
th ca nn kinh t ch khng
ring mc tiu h tr xut khu.
Vic can thip, iu hnh, kim
sot cht ch t gi gia USD v
VND ca Ngn hng Nh nc
xut pht t thi quen s dng
ng USD trong giao thng ca
ngi VN. Trong sut mt thi
gian di, t gi USD/VND dao
ng vi bin rt thp nn
tm l nh u t rt nhy cm
trc nhng thng tin bt ng
v ni rng hay thu hp bin .
Trong iu kin kinh t hin nay,
t gi vn nn c kim sot bi
Chnh ph theo hng n nh
to mt mi trng bnh n
cho cc doanh nghip. Ngoi ra,
Ngn hng Nh nc cng nn
cho thc hin thanh ton quc t
bng cc ngoi t khc, thay th
ng USD gim p lc cung
tin ln ngoi t ny. ng thi,
cho cc doanh nghip thc hin
cc nhm cng c phi sinh nh
hp ng k hn, quyn chn
vn cung cu ngoi t khng
gy tr ngi cho hot ng sn
xut kinh doanh v theo ,
chng khon cc cng ty ny
tng trng n nh hn.
5.4. Gia tng ni lc cho nn kinh
t.
Nhng chnh sch tin t linh
hot v ph hp cho s pht
trin ca th trng chng khon
nh trnh by trn s to
iu kin cho cc doanh nghip
m rng hot ng, gia tng li
nhun, nh hng ha chng
khon trn th trng s c
gia tng c v s lng ln cht
lng, to iu kin pht trin
th trng chng khon. Doanh
nghip hot ng tt s gia tng
ni lc cho nn kinh t, to c s
gia tng d tr quc gia, c
nh vy th VN mi c th thc
hin cc chnh sch tin t cng
nh chnh sch qun l iu hnh
t nc khc mt cch c hiu
qu.
5.5. Hng n mt th trng
chng khon hiu qu v thng
tin.
Bn cnh vic quan tm n
cc nhn t v chnh sch kinh t
v m nhm pht trin th trng
hng ha th bn thn th trng
chng khon VN cng cn hng
n tnh hiu qu v mt thng
tin. C nh vy th gi c chng
khon mi phn nh ng v kp
thi khi c nhng tin tc v thay
i chnh sch kinh t v m.
iu ny th hin a chiu ca
mi tng quan: chnh sch kinh
t v m ca Chnh ph cn quan
tm th trng chng khon
pht trin, TTCK phi dng
hiu qu th mi c th phn nh
nhng k vng t chnh sch
em li, khi chnh sch c
th hin kt qu ng mc qua
TTCK th ni lc nn kinh t gia
S 8 (18) - Thng 01- 02/2013 PHT TRIN & HI NHP
Nghin Cu & Trao i
41
tng li to iu kin cho chnh
sch cng th hin kt qu iu
hnh tt hn. Th trng chng
khon pht trin bn vng n
lt n li pht tn hiu n nh
u t trong v ngoi nc v s
pht trin ca nn kinh t, thu ht
dng vn vo th trng, li tip
tc to iu kin cho cc doanh
nghip trong nn kinh t pht
trin hn. Tm li, trong mi
tng quan qua li nhiu ln ny,
nn kinh t VN s c tip thm
c s ngy cng tng trng
n nh.
nng cao hiu qu v mt
thng tin cho th trng chng
khon, nhng gii php sau c
xut: Ci thin tnh minh bch
ca thng tin c cng b, tin
ti d b bin giao dch ti cc
sn giao dch chng khon, to
iu kin cho gi chng khon
phn ng nhanh chng vi thng
tin cng b, nng cao vai tr
ca c quan gim st th trng
chng khon, nng cao tnh thc
thi ca h thng lut php lin
quan n hot ng u t chng
khon, nng cao cht lng h
thng c s h tng, rt ngn
thi gian thanh ton ph hp vi
thng l quc t, kim sot cht
tiu chun nim yt nhm tng
tnh an ton cho nh u t.
iu quan trng nht l cc
gii php trn cn phi c thc
hin kt hp mt cch hi ha
nhm pht huy ti a tc dng
trn TTCK l
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