PERSONAL THEFT

Understanding the Risks

Contents
September 2013
Cody Moldenhauer
Stat 301
Purpose of the Analysis
obody !ants to find out something of theirs is stolen" ho!e#er !e $annot
assume that e#erything !ill al!ays be !here !e left it% &hat if people $ould find out
!hether you !ere in a situation that made you more likely to be a #i$tim of personal
theft' (#ery year" the )ureau of *usti$e Statisti$s $olle$ts data regarding personal theft%
+his data is $olle$ted from #arious poli$e agen$ies around the United States of Ameri$a
and published online for e#eryone to see% &hile most people do not see a purpose for
this data" analy,ing it may sho! !hether you are more likely to be a #i$tim of personal
theft% -n top of kno!ing !hether you may be at risk" the poli$e may also use this data%
+he poli$e $an use it to kno! !hat to look for !hen looking for potential #i$tims of theft"
and kno! !hat areas they should pay more attention to% Using this data !e $an see
!hat types of people are more at risk%
+o analy,e this data it is easier to look at ho! the data is des$ribed through
tables% Sho!n belo! is +able 1" !hi$h des$ribes the data by sho!ing a#erages of the
data" if the data is ske!ed" the range of the data" and some other information% +he data
!as $olle$ted by regions of the United States in$luding ortheast" Mid!est" South" and
&est%
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000
Mean .21/3 /2012%22 33/01 2/2/2%22 1.0/0
Standard (rror 32/0%00 1/132%12 /103%1/ 11/0%3/ 11220%03
Median 3.022 /212. 332.3 11/21 13020
Standard 4e#iation 121.0%03 3/300%3 1/2/2%33 123./%2/ 23000%.1
Sample 5arian$e 230030132 1203/30202 332311021 12320210. 230..1010
6urtosis 2%0. 1%00 73%12 73%21 2%22
Ske!ness 1%31 70%03 0%01 70%0/ 1%22
Range 32222 /2122 02013 22213 20010
Minimum 1.1.2 01032 22//1 00103 01322
Ma8imum 103333 133130 /202. 1/.11 1003.2
Sum 32.332 31/.11 2/2122 23.3.1 233/2.
+able 1% 4es$ripti#e Statisti$s of Personal +heft throughout the U%S% by 9ear%
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:inding the Risks
Region in the United States
;n order to understand !hi$h people might be more at risk" ; looked into the
follo!ing three things%
1% &hat regions throughout the United States !ere the most at risk'
2% &hat in$ome le#el !as the most at risk'
3% ;s the le#el of personal thefts rising as time mo#es on'
<ooking into the regions that are the most at risk $an sho! us !hat areas in the
Unites States that are more likely to ha#e #i$tims of personal theft% )y identifying these
areas !e $an kno! !here the fo$us on pre#enting personal theft should be pla$ed the
most% +he areas !hi$h are most at risk are sho!n in :igure 1 belo!% :rom the data" !e
$an see that the South is the most likely area for personal theft to o$$ur% +his is follo!ed
$losely by the ortheast% &e $an also see that people li#ing in the &est are only about
t!o7thirds as likely to be a #i$tim of personal theft as the people that are li#ing in the
South% )y sho!ing this information in :igure 1 it is easy to see !here personal theft
o$$urs the most" and in !hi$h years personal theft !as the highest%
:igure 1% Personal +heft by Region and 9ear
=ousehold ;n$ome
+he ne8t !ay to find !hi$h areas !ere the most at risk !as to look at in$ome
le#els% ;n$ome le#els are important !hen $onsidering personal theft be$ause there may
be a $orrelation bet!een ho! mu$h a household makes and ho! mu$h se$urity they
ha#e to prote$t their in#estments% :or households that make a lot of money" they
sometimes ha#e pri#ate se$urity that prote$ts them from theft% ;n other $ases" lo!er
in$ome housing often has more desperate people and lo!er le#els of se$urity%
=o!e#er" :igure 2" belo!" sho!s ho! the in$ome le#el has no effe$t on the number of
thefts that o$$urred%
+he analysis on in$ome le#el and personal theft re#eals something interesting%
o matter !hat in$ome le#el a household may be at in the United States" there is a
fairly e>ual $han$e that it may be$ome a #i$tim of personal theft% +his may be be$ause
households that $annot afford any e8tra se$urity ha#e less to take% ;t $ould also mean
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that thie#es are !illing to take e8tra risk and do not mind ha#ing to deal !ith a $amera
or se$urity de#i$e $at$hing them%
:igure 2% Personal +heft by =ousehold ;n$ome
+he :uture of Personal +heft
6no!ing !hether the o#erall number of #i$tims of personal theft in the United
States is rising or falling is important% ;f the number is rising then it $osts #i$tims more
money% =o!e#er if it is falling then it sho!s that people ha#e less in$enti#e to steal% +his
$ould be be$ause of a higher standard of li#ing or better e$onomi$ times% 4uring better
e$onomi$ times" people are probably not as desperate to get something through theft
be$ause they $an afford to ha#e it% +heft rates $an also sho! !hether !hat !e are
doing to stop theft is !orking or en$ouraging the a$t more% ;n order to sho! !hether
personal theft rates !ere rising or falling in $ertain areas !e must first $onsider the data
by year and region" sho!n in +able 2 belo!% +hen !e must look at !hether the trend is
going up or do!n for different regions% +his is sho!n by the line graph in :igure 3?on the
ne8t page@%
9ear
Region 1//1 1//3 1//. 1/// 2000 Arand +otal
ortheast 3/222 //030 .3/20 00103 1003.2 00.320
Mid!est 332/. /1.22 22//1 1/.11 12303 3232.0
South 103333 133130 /202. 2023/ 01322 031../
&est 1.1.2 01032 13223 1/133 11202 300101
Arand +otal 32.332 31/.10 2/2122 23.3.1 233/2. 12012/3
+able 2% Personal +heft by 9ear and Region
0
:igure 3% Personal +heft by 9ear and Region%
&e $an see from :igure 3 and +able 2 that the personal theft rate in the Southern
Area of the United States has been dropping sin$e 1//3% ;n 1//3" the South hit a peak
#alue of 133"130 thefts% Sin$e then the rate has been dropping e#ery year% +he &est
seems ha#e to been rather $onstant" so !e $an e8pe$t that the rate !ill not $hange #ery
mu$h in the future% Unlike the &est and the South ho!e#er" the Mid!est and the
ortheast seem to be rather unpredi$table% +hey both seem to Bump around from year
to year% 4ue to this" it is hard to tell !hether people are more at risk or less at risk then
they !ould be in other areas% ;n re$ent years" the graph sho!s that the South !ent from
being the most likely area for personal theft to o$$ur to the least likely% +he &est stayed
rather $onstant and remained the least or se$ond least likely area for theft to o$$ur
throughout all years% +he data sho!s that personal theft rates ha#e been dropping
o#erall sin$e 1//1" meaning the future should be less !orrisome then in pre#ious years%
=opefully this trend !ill $ontinue until personal theft is no longer a $on$ern for the
Ameri$an popula$e%
Referen$es
)ureau of *usti$e Statisti$s% umber of personal theftsClar$enies by region and
household in$ome" 1//172000% Aenerated using the C5S 5i$timi,ation Analysis
+ool at !!!%bBs%go#% 107Sep713%
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