Last winter, the UK was warned months in advance it would be hit by severe

conditions; but this never materialised, only incessant rain. Over the Atlantic,
meanwhile, the winter was unusually bitter the polar vortex wreakin havoc on the
!ast "oast.
#he UK$s %et O&&ice stressed it didn$t actually &orecast the severe conditions, sayin
'it$s not currently scienti&ically possible to provide a detailed &orecast over these lon
timescales(. As &ar as predictin snow is concerned, it said) '*ecause there are so
many &actors involved, enerally that can only be discussed in any detail in our &ive+
day &orecasts.( ,t$s commendable honesty, but you miht be inclined to respond with)
'A &at lot o& ood, that is.(
-et hope is at hand. A team o& %et O&&ice scientists report that, thanks to advances in
modellin the .orth Atlantic weather system, 'key aspects o& !uropean and .orth
American winter climate/ are hihly predictable months ahead.(
0o what$s chaned1 2ell, in part it all depends on what you mean by a weather
&orecast. -ou, , or 3armer 4iles miht want to know i& it is oin to rain or snow next
week, so that we can anticipate how to et to work or whether to ather in the herds.
*ut the laws o& physics have set a &undamental limit on how &ar in advance that kind
o& detail can be predicted. *eyond about 56 days in the &uture, it is mathematically
impossible to &orecast details such as local rain&all, no matter how much you know
about the state o& the weather system today. #he weather is a chaotic system,
crucially dependent on the turbulent &lows o& atmospheric circulation. 0o the tiniest
di&&erences in the state o& the system riht now can lead to completely di&&erent
outcomes several days down the line.