Simulation-Based Lean Six-Sigma And Design For

Six-Sigma
Basem El-Haik
Raid Al-Aomar
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?l/!&i", @&se%.
Si%l&tion/b&sed le&n si(/sig%& &nd design 'or si(/sig%& : by @&se% ?l/!&i",
0&id Al/Ao%&r.
p. c%.
A Wiley/Interscience pblic&tion.A
Incldes bibliogr&phic&l re'erences &nd inde(.
IS@#/)39 ,*+/0/7*)/6,7,0/+
IS@#/)09 0/7*)/6,7,0/+
). Si( sig%& 4B&lity control st&nd&rd5 2. <ot&l 8&lity %&n&ge%ent. 3. Prodction
engineering. I. Al/Ao%&r, 0&id. II. <itle.
<S)66.?3+3 2006
62Cdc2266+.6
200607+))2
)0 , + * 6 6 7 3 2 )
To our parents, families, and friends for their continuous support
Basem and Raid
Fall 2006
Summary Of Chater Contents
<he boo" is org&ni.ed into three p&rts9
P&rt I, Ch&pters ), 2, &nd 3, h&s si(/sig%& 'nd&%ent&ls &s its the%e.
P&rt II, Ch&pters 7, 6, 6, &nd *, covers si%l&tion 'nd&%ent&ls.
P&rt III, begins in Ch&pters +, ,, &nd )0 by 'ocsing on si%l&tion/b&sed le&n si(/sig%&
43S/;SS5 &nd design 'or si(/sig%& 43S/1>SS5 &nd provides sever&l c&se stdies. In Ch&pter
)) $e present ele%ents o' sccess'l deploy%ent o' 3S %ethods.
>ollo$ing is & s%%&ry o' the ch&pters.
!art "
In Ch&pter ) $e introdce the concepts o' process &nd customer satisfaction &nd highlight ho$
csto%ers e(perience & prodct or & service &s $ell &s its delivery process. <his ch&pter
concentr&tes on the service side &nd de'ines v&rios ele%ents o' & generic process &s $ell &s
tools sch &s process %&pping. We &lso de%ysti'y the concept o' transaction &nd event
discreteness. In this ch&pter $e e(pl&in $h&t si(/sig%& is &nd ho$ it h&s evolved over ti%e. We
e(pl&in th&t it is & process/b&sed %ethodology &nd introdce the re&der to process %odeling $ith
& high/level overvie$ o' process %&pping, v&le stre&% %&pping &nd v&le &n&lysis &s $ell &s
bsiness process %&n&ge%ent syste%s. <he critic&lity &nd &pplic&tion o' %e&sre%ent syste%s
&n&lysis is introdced. <he 12AIC %ethodology &nd ho$ it incorpor&tes these concepts into &
ro&d %&p %ethod is &lso e(pl&ined.
Ch&pter 2 covers the le&n si( sig%& 4;SS5 concept &nd discsses topics rel&ted to the integr&tion
o' si(/sig%& &nd le&n %&n'&ctring. <he 'ocs in this ch&pter is on the det&ils o' the ;SS
&ppro&ch, the enh&nce%ents %&de to si(/sig%& 12AIC tollg&tes, le&n %&n'&ctring concepts
&nd &i%s, v&le stre&% %&pping, &nd le&n %&n'&ctring techni8es. <he ch&pter &lso highlights
the synergy &nd bene'its o' i%ple%enting &n ;SS syste% &s & 'ond&tion 'or the proposed 3S/
;SS &ppro&ch.
Ch&pter 3 is &n introdction to & high/level 1>SS process. <he 1>SS &ppro&ch introdced helps
design te&%s 'r&%e their proDect $ith 'in&nci&l, cltr&l, &nd str&tegic i%plic&tions to the bsiness.
In this ch&pter $e 'or% &nd integr&te sever&l str&tegic, t&ctic&l, &nd synergistic %ethodologies to
enh&nce service 1>SS c&p&bilities &nd to deliver & bro&d set o' opti%i.ed soltions. We
highlights &nd present the service 1>SS ph&ses9 identi'y, ch&r&cteri.e, opti%i.e, &nd veri'y.
!art ""
In Ch&pter 7 $e introdce the b&sic concepts o' si%l&tion %odeling $ith & 'ocs on process
%odeling &nd ti%e/b&sed per'or%&nce %e&sre%ent.We &lso cl&ri'y the role o' si%l&tion
stdies in serving the incre&sing needs o' co%p&nies th&t see" continos i%prove%ent &nd
opti%&lity in prodction &nd bsiness processes. <o this end, $e provide &n introdction to the
concept, ter%inology, &nd types o' %odels, &long $ith & description o' si%l&tion t&(ono%y &nd &
Dsti'ic&tion 'or tili.ing si%l&tion tools in & v&riety o' re&l/$orld &pplic&tions. Sch & b&c"grond
is essenti&l to est&blishing & b&sic nderst&nding o' $h&t si%l&tion is &ll &bot &nd to
nderst&nding the "ey si%l&tion role in si%l&tion/b&sed si(/sig%& stdies &nd &pplic&tions.
In Ch&pter 6 $e present the det&ils &nd %ech&nics o' 1?S th&t &re essenti&l to providing &
'le(ible pl&t'or% 'or se o' & si%l&tion/b&sed si(/sig%& &ppro&ch9 ele%ents o' syste% %odeling,
events &ctiv&tion, r&ndo% n%ber gener&tion, ti%e &dv&nce%ent, &ni%&tion, &nd &cc%l&ting
st&tistics. In &ddition to po$er'l 1?S %ech&nics, $e &ddress ho$ '&st co%pt&tions on tod&yEs
high/speed processors, &long $ith the gro$ing gr&phics c&p&bility, contribte to the e''ectiveness
&nd vis&li.&tion c&p&bility o' 1?S %odels. We ths provide & deeper nderst&nding o' the 1?S
process, co%ponents, &nd %ech&nis%s. ?(&%ples o' %&n&l &nd co%pter si%l&tions &re sed
to cl&ri'y the 1?S 'nction&lity.
Ch&pter 6 is 'ocsed on &n&ly.ing the v&rios &spects o' the si%l&tion process &nd the set o'
techni8es &nd steps 'ollo$ed $hen condcting & si%l&tion stdy. <he ele%ents o' the
si%l&tion process discssed inclde proDect scoping, concept&l %odeling, d&t& collection,
%odel bilding, %odel &n&lyses, &nd doc%ent&tion. <he ch&pter &lso highlights the lin"&ge o'
these si%l&tion pr&ctices to the over&ll scope o' & si(/sig%& proDect, to the si%l&tion so't$&re
sed, &nd to the process 'ollo$ed by & si(/sig%& te&% in c&rrying ot & co%plete si%l&tion
stdy. >in&lly, $e present the i%plic&tions o' si%l&tion on si(/sig%& &pplic&tions to syste%
design, proble% solving, &nd continos i%prove%ent.
In Ch&pter * $e discss the %&in isses involved in &n&ly.ing si%l&tion otpts9 distingishing
bet$een ter%in&ting &nd ste&dy/st&te si%l&tion, nderst&nding the stoch&stic n&tre o'
si%l&tion otco%es, deter%ining si%l&tion rn controls 4i.e., $&r%/p period, rn length, &nd
n%ber o' replic&tions5, &nd selecting the &ppropri&te %odel otpt &n&lysis %ethod. We &lso
discss the %&in %ethods o' otpt &n&lysis, inclding st&tistic&l &n&lysis, e(peri%ent&l design,
&nd opti%i.&tion.
!art """
Ch&pter + cont&ins &ll the proDect ro&d %&ps 'or the 3S &nd 3S/;SS %ethodologies. <he 12AIC
process &nd le&n principles &nd concepts &re integr&ted into & synergetic ro&d %&p in & 3S/;SS
environ%ent. In Ch&pter + $e &lso present & 3S/1>SS proDect ro&d %&p, $hich highlights &t &
high level the identi'y, ch&rc&teri.e, opti%i.e, &nd v&lid&te ph&ses over the seven develop%ent
st&ges9 ide& cre&tion, voice o' the csto%er &nd bsiness, concept develop%ent, preli%in&ry
design, design opti%i.&tion, veri'ic&tion, &nd l&nch re&diness. In this ch&pter the concept o'
tollg&te is introdced. We &lso highlight the %ost &ppropri&te 1>SS tools &nd %ethods by the
1>SS ph&se, indic&ting $here it is %ost &ppropri&te to st&rt tool se. <he ro&d %&ps &lso
recogni.e the concept o' tollgates, design %ilestones $here 1>SS te&%s pd&te st&"eholders on
develop%ent &nd &s" th&t & decision be %&de &s to $hether to &pprove going to the ne(t st&ge,
recycling b&c" to &n e&rlier st&ge, or c&nceling the proDect &ltogether.
In Ch&pter , $e discss the det&ils o' 3S/;SS &pplic&tion to re&l/$orld syste%s sing the ro&d
%&p presented in Ch&pter +. <he 'ocs is on the pr&ctic&l &spects o' 3S/;SS se in
reengineering tr&ns&ction&l processes in both services &nd %&n'&ctring. <hese &spects &re
discssed throgh &n &pplic&tion o' the 3S/;SS &ppro&ch to & %&n'&ctring c&se stdy.
?%ph&sis is pl&ced on tili.ing si%l&tion/b&sed &pplic&tion o' le&n techni8es &nd si(/sig%&
&n&lysis to i%prove & set o' process C<Bs, de'ined in ter%s o' ti%e/b&sed per'or%&nce to t&"e
&dv&nt&ge o' si%l&tion %odeling 'or & syste%/level &pplic&tion o' si(/sig%& st&tistic&l tools sed
in 12AIC &nd le&n techni8es.
In Ch&pter )0 $e develop & 3S/1>SS clinic c&se stdy sing the ro&d %&p in Ch&pter +. We
sho$ the &pplic&tion o' sever&l tools &s they sp&n over the proDect ro&d %&p. <he c&se stdy &lso
highlights %ost &ppropri&te 1>SS tools. It indic&tes $here it is %ost &ppropri&te to st&rt tool se
sch &s tr&ns'er 'nctions &nd 8&lity 'nction deploy%ent. >ollo$ing the 1>SS ro&d %&p helps
&cceler&te the process introdction &nd &ligns bene'its 'or csto%ers &nd st&"eholders.
Chapter 11 is a practical guide to successful 3S-DFSS and 3S-LSS development,
deployment, and project execution ! generic frame"or# for successful project
management and development is proposed $ased on the authors% experience &his
frame"or# demystifies the am$iguity involved in project selection and specifies a
method for project development 'e provide a practical guide for successful
development of 3S projects $ased on the road maps discussed in Chapter ( &he guide
$egins $y discussing the uni)ue characteristics of 3S projects
!art ""# Simulation Fundamentals
Chater List
Ch&pter 79 @&sic Si%l&tion Concepts
Ch&pter 69 1iscrete ?vent Si%l&tion
Ch&pter 69 <he Si%l&tion Process
Ch&pter *9 Si%l&tion An&lysis
Ch&pter 79 Basi$ Simulation Con$ets
%&' "ntrodu$tion
Prodction &nd bsiness syste%s &re "ey bilding bloc"s in the strctre o' %odern indstri&l
societies. Co%p&nies &nd indstri&l 'ir%s, throgh $hich prodction &nd bsiness oper&tions &re
s&lly per'or%ed, represent the %&Dor sector o' tod&yEs glob&l econo%y. <here'ore, in the l&st
dec&de, co%p&nies h&ve %&de continos i%prove%ent in their prodction &nd bsiness
syste%s & %ilestone in their str&tegic pl&nning 'or the ne$ %illenni%.
It is s&lly &sserted th&t prodction &nd bsiness oper&tions h&ve the potenti&l to strengthen or
$e&"en & co%p&nyEs co%petitive &bility. <o re%&in co%petitive, co%p&nies h&ve to %&int&in &
high level o' per'or%&nce by %&int&ining high 8&lity, lo$ cost, short %&n'&ctring le&d ti%es,
&nd & high level o' csto%er s&tis'&ction. As & reslt o' 'ierce co%petition &nd decre&sing
bsiness s&'ety %&rgins, e''icient &nd robst prodction &nd bsiness oper&tions h&ve beco%e &
necessity 'or srviv&l in the %&r"etpl&ce.
2&ny indstri&l engineering sbDects, sch &s oper&tions rese&rch, 8&lity control, &nd
si%l&tion, o''er robst &nd e''icient design &nd proble%/solving tools $ith the lti%&te &i% o'
per'or%&nce enh&nce%ent. ?(&%ples o' this per'or%&nce inclde the throghpt o' & '&ctory, the
8&lity o' & prodct, or the pro'it o' &n org&ni.&tion. Si%l&tion %odeling &s &n indstri&l
engineering tool 'or syste% design &nd i%prove%ent h&s ndergone tre%endos develop%ent in
the p&st dec&de. <his c&n be pictred throgh the gro$ing c&p&bilities o' si%l&tion so't$&re
tools &nd the &pplic&tion o' si%l&tion soltions to & v&riety o' re&l/$orld proble%s in di''erent
bsiness &ren&s.
With the &id o' si%l&tion, co%p&nies h&ve been &ble to design e''icient prodction &nd bsiness
syste%s, v&lid&te &nd tr&de o'' proposed design soltion &ltern&tives, trobleshoot potenti&l
proble%s, i%prove syste%s per'or%&nce %etrics, &nd conse8ently, ct cost, %eet t&rgets, &nd
boost s&les &nd pro'its. In the l&st dec&de, si%l&tion %odeling h&s been pl&ying & %&Dor role in
designing, &n&ly.ing, &nd opti%i.ing engineering syste%s in & $ide r&nge o' indstri&l &nd
bsiness &pplic&tions.
0ecently, si(/sig%& pr&ctitioners st&rted to recogni.e the essenti&l si%l&tion role in syste%
design, proble% solving, &nd continos i%prove%ent. Syste%/level si%l&tion in p&rticl&r h&s
beco%e & "ey si(/sig%& tool 'or representing &nd %e&sring the ti%e/b&sed per'or%&nce o' re&l/
$orld stoch&stic prodction &nd bsiness syste%s. ?(&%ples inclde si(/sig%& stdies th&t &re
'ocsed on enh&ncing the prodctivity, 8&lity, inventory, 'lo$, e''iciency, &nd le&d ti%e in
prodction &nd bsiness syste%s. In these stdies, si%l&tion is p&rticl&rly essenti&l 'or syste%
represent&tion, per'or%&nce ev&l&tion, e(peri%ent&l design, $h&t/i' &n&lysis, &nd opti%i.&tion.
With sch c&p&bility, si%l&tion %odeling c&n be tili.ed &s &n i%port&nt tool in si(/sig%&
&pplic&tions 'or both 1>SS &nd 12AIC.
@e'ore presenting the det&ils o' si%l&tion tili.&tion in the 3S/;SS &nd 3S/1>SS &ppro&ches,
$e provide &n introdctory to the b&sic concepts o' si%l&tion %odeling, $ith & 'ocs on process
%odeling &nd ti%e/b&sed per'or%&nce %e&sre%ent.We &lso cl&ri'y the role o' si%l&tion
stdies in serving the incre&sing needs o' co%p&nies th&t see" continos i%prove%ent &nd
opti%&lity to prodction &nd bsiness processes. <o this end, $e provide &n introdction to the
concept, ter%inology, &nd types o' %odels, together $ith & description o' si%l&tion t&(ono%y
&nd & Dsti'ic&tion 'or tili.ing si%l&tion tools in & v&riety o' re&l/$orld &pplic&tions. Sch &
b&c"grond is essenti&l to est&blishing & b&sic nderst&nding o' $h&t si%l&tion is &ll &bot &nd
to nderst&nding the "ey si%l&tion role in si%l&tion/b&sed si(/sig%& stdies &nd &pplic&tions.
%&( System )odeling
System modeling &s & ter% incldes t$o i%port&nt co%%only sed concepts9 system &nd
modeling. It is i%per&tive to cl&ri'y sch concepts be'ore &tte%pting to 'ocs on their relev&nce to
the Fsi%l&tionA topic. !ence, in this section $e introdce these t$o concepts &nd provide &
generic cl&ssi'ic&tion o' the v&rios types o' syste% %odels.
%&(&' System Con$et
<he $ord system is co%%only sed in its bro&d %e&ning in & v&riety o' engineering &nd
nonengineering 'ields. In si%ple $ords, & syste% is o'ten re'erred to &s & set o' ele%ents or
oper&tions th&t &re org&ni.ed &nd logic&lly rel&ted to$&rd the &tt&in%ent o' & cert&in go&l or
obDective. <o &tt&in the intended go&l or to serve the desired 'nction, it is necess&ry 'or the
syste% to receive & set o' inpts, to process the% correctly, &nd to prodce the re8ired
otco%es. <o sst&in sch 'lo$, so%e control is re8ired to govern syste% beh&vior. Given sch
& de'inition, $e c&n &n&ly.e &ny syste% 4S5 b&sed on the &rchitectre sho$n in >igre 7.).
Figure %&'# 1e'inition o' the syste% concept.
As sho$n in the 'igre, e&ch syste% c&n be de'ined pri%&rily in ter%s o' & set o' inpts 4I 5 &nd &
process 4P5 th&t tr&ns'or%s &nd ch&nges the ch&r&cteristics o' syste% inpts to prodce &
speci'ic set o' otpts 4O5. <he process is per'or%ed throgh & sets o' syste% ele%ents 45
governed by & set o' rel&tionships 4R5. An over&ll go&l 4!5 is o'ten de'ined to represent the
prpose &nd obDective o' the syste%. <o sst&in & 'l&$less 'lo$ &nd correct 'nction&lity o' I"P"
O, so%e type o' control 4#5 is essenti&lly &pplied to syste% inpts, process, &nd otpts. <hs,
bilding & syste% re8ires pri%&rily si( b&sic ele%ents9
). Speci'ying the set o' inpts 4I 5 &nd the speci'ic&tions re8ired to prodce speci'ied
otco%es 4O5
2. ;isting syste% ele%ents S = 4), 2, 3, . . . , n5 &nd de'ining the ch&r&cteristics &nd the
individ&l role o' e&ch ele%ent
3. An&ly.ing &nd nderst&nding the logic&l rel&tionships 4R), R2, R3, $ $ $ , Rm5 &%ong the set
o' syste% ele%ents de'ined
7. Speci'ying the set o' otco%es 4O5 th&t shold be prodced &nd their speci'ic&tions in
order to re&ch the go&l 4!5 &nd obDective speci'ied
6. Speci'ying the syste% controls 4#5 &nd their rles in %onitoring &nd &dDsting I"P"O 'lo$
to %eet inpts 4I 5, process 4P5, &nd otpt 4O5 speci'ic&tions
6. 1e'ining the go&l 4!5 or the over&ll syste% obDective &nd rel&ting syste% strctre
4inpts, ele%ents, rel&tionships, controls, &nd otpts5 to go&l &tt&in%ent
@&sed on this nderst&nding o' the syste% concept, it beco%es essenti&l th&t &ny &rr&nge%ent o'
things or obDects to be c&lled & syste% h&ve & de'ined set o' ele%ents. Sch ele%ents shold
h&ve so%e logic&l rel&tionships &%ong the%, &nd there shold be so%e type o' go&l, obDective,
or se'l otco%e 'ro% the inter&ction o' the syste% ele%ents de'ined. <r&ns'or%ing syste%
inpts into desired otpts is o'ten per'or%ed throgh the syste% resorces. Correct processing
is o'ten spported by controls &nd inventory syste%s to &ssre 8&lity &nd %&int&in ste&dy
per'or%&nce. -nderst&nding the syste% concept is or g&te$&y to the l&rgest &nd $idest sbDect
o' syste% &n&lysis &nd design, $hich represents & "ey s"ill in si%l&tion %odeling.
Co%%on e(&%ples o' syste% concept inclde & cl&ssroo%, & co%pter syste%, &nd & pl&nt. We
no$ &pply the de'inition o' syste% to & cl&ssroo%. <his le&ds to the 'ollo$ing &n&lyses9
). Stdents o' cert&in 8&li'ic&tions o' &ge, &c&de%ic level, %&Dor, &nd so on, &re speci'ied
&s the set o' inpts 4I 5. -pon gr&d&tion, stdents &re &lso de'ined &s syste% otco%e
4O5.
2. <he over&ll go&l 4!5 is set to provide & good/8&lity edc&tion to stdents &ttending
cl&sses.
3. <o &chieve !, stdents &re sbDect to v&rios ele%ents o' the edc&tion&l process 4P5 in
the cl&ssroo%, $hich involves &ttend&nce, p&rticip&tion in cl&ss &ctivities, sb%itting
&ssign%ents, p&ssing e(&%s, &nd so on, in order to co%plete the cl&ss $ith cert&in
8&li'ic&tions &nd s"ills.
7. <he set o' syste% ele%ents is de'ined &s 'ollo$s9
S = Ht&bles, ch&irs, stdents, instrctor, boo"s, $hitebo&rdI
6. <he ele%ents de'ined in S &re logic&lly rel&ted throgh & set o' rel&tionships 4R5. >or
e(&%ple, ch&irs &re loc&ted &rond the t&bles, t&bles &re sit to '&ce the instrctor,
stdents sit on ch&irs, boo"s &re pt on t&bles in 'ront o' stdents, the instrctor st&nds in
'ront o' stdents &nd ses the $hitebo&rd to e(pl&in the concepts, &nd so on.
6. Inter&ction o' ele%ents &s e(pl&ined in ite% 6 le&ds to the &tt&in%ent o' the go&l 4!5 o'
le&rning or edc&ting stdents on & cert&in sbDect.
*. >in&lly, the instrctor &pplies regl&tions &nd rles o' condct in the cl&ssroo%,
&ttend&nce &nd gr&ding policies, &nd so on, &s & sort o' control 4#5 on the edc&tion
process.
>in&lly, it is $orth %entioning th&t the ter% system covers prodcts &nd processes. A prodct
syste% cold be &n &to%obile, & celll&r phone, & co%pter, or & c&lcl&tor. Any o' these
prodcts involves the de'ined co%ponents o' the syste% in ter%s o' inpts, otpts, ele%ents,
rel&tionships, controls, &nd go&l. <ry to &n&ly.e 'ro% this perspective &ll the e(&%ples described.
Jn the other h&nd, & process syste% c&n be & %&n'&ctring process, &n &sse%bly line, & po$er
pl&nt, & bsiness process sch &s b&n"ing oper&tions, & logistic syste%, or &n edc&tion&l
syste%. Si%il&rly, &ny o' these processes involves the syste% co%ponents de'ined in ter%s o'
inpts, otpts, ele%ents, rel&tionships, controls, &nd go&l. <ry to &n&ly.e &ll the e(&%ples 'ro%
this perspective, too.
%&(&( )odeling Con$et
<he $ord modeling re'ers to the process o' representing & syste% 4& prodct or & process5 $ith &
%odel th&t is e&sier to nderst&nd th&n the &ct&l %odel &nd less e(pensive to bild. <he syste%
represent&tion in the %odel i%plies t&"ing into &ccont the co%ponents o' the syste%, &s
discssed in Section 7.2.). <his incldes representing syste% ele%ents, rel&tionships, go&l,
inpts, controls, &nd otpts. 2odeling & syste% there'ore h&s t$o prere8isites9
). -nderst&nding the strctre o' the &ct&l 4re&l/$orld5 syste% &nd the 'nction&lity &nd
ch&r&cteristics o' e&ch syste% co%ponent &nd rel&tionship. It is i%per&tive to be '&%ili&r
$ith & syste% be'ore &tte%pting to %odel it &nd to nderst&nd its prpose &nd 'nction&lity
be'ore &tte%pting to est&blish & se'l represent&tion o' its beh&vior. >or e(&%ple, the
%odeler needs to be '&%ili&r $ith the prodction syste% o' bilding vehicles be'ore
&tte%pting to %odel & vehicle body shop or & vehicle &sse%bly oper&tion. Si%il&rly, the
%odeler needs to be '&%ili&r $ith v&rios types o' b&n" tr&ns&ctions be'ore &tte%pting to
%odel b&n"ing oper&tions.
2. @eing '&%ili&r $ith di''erent %odeling &nd syste% represent&tion techni8es &nd
%ethods. <his s"ill is essenti&l to choose the &ppropri&te %odeling techni8e 'or
representing the nderlying re&l/$orld syste%. 1e to bdget&ry &nd ti%e constr&ints, the
%odel selected shold be pr&ctic&lly &nd econo%ic&lly 'e&sible &s $ell &s bene'ici&l in
%eeting the lti%&te go&l o' %odeling. As $e discss in Section 7.2.3, sever&l %odel
types c&n be sed to cre&te & syste% %odel, &nd selection o' the %ost 'e&sible %odeling
%ethod is & decision b&sed on econo%y, &tt&in&bility, &nd se'lness.
<he "ey 8estion to be &ns$ered by the %odeler is ho$ to %odel & syste% o' interest. <he
&ns$er is & co%bin&tion o' &rt &nd science th&t is sed 'or &bstr&cting & re&l/$orld syste% into &n
edc&tion&l %odel. <he %odel shold be cle&r, co%prehensive, &nd &ccr&te so th&t $e c&n rely
on its represent&tion in nderst&nding syste% 'nction&lity, &n&ly.ing its v&rios postres, &nd
predicting its 'tre beh&vior. >ro% this perspective, &nd &s sho$n in >igre 7.2, system
modeling is the process o' tr&ns'erring the &ct&l syste% into & %odel th&t c&n be sed to repl&ce
the &ct&l one 'or syste% &n&lysis &nd syste% i%prove%ent. <he obDects o' & re&l/$orld syste%
&re repl&ced by obDects o' represent&tion &nd sy%bols o' indic&tion, inclding the set o' syste%
ele%ents 45, ele%ent rel&tionships 4R5, syste% inpts 4I 5, controls 4#5, &nd syste% otpts 4O5.
<he &ct&l syste% ?C0CICCCJ is %i%ic"ed thoroghly in the syste% %odel, le&ding to &
represent&tion th&t c&ptres the ch&r&cteristics o' the re&l/$orld process. J' corse, $e shold
&l$&ys "eep in %ind th&t the syste% %odel is Dst &n &ppro(i%&tion o' the &ct&l syste%.
!o$ever, this &ppro(i%&tion shold not overloo" the "ey syste% ch&r&cteristics.
Figure %&(# Process o' syste% %odeling.
<he science o' syste% %odeling ste%s 'ro% le&rning %odeling %ethodologies &nd h&ving 'lency
in &n&lytic&l s"ills &nd logic&l thin"ing. <he &rt &spect o' %odeling involves represent&tion,
gr&phic&l &nd &bstr&ction s"ills o' obDects, rel&tionships, &nd strctre. It is si%ply being &ble to
i%&gine syste% 'nction&lity, oper&tion, &nd ele%ent inter&ction &nd possessing the c&p&bility o'
%&pping rel&tionships &nd representing beh&vior. >or e(&%ple, t&"e & vie$ o' &n &sse%bly line,
nderst&nd its 'nction&lity &nd strctre, &nd try to represent it in & process di&gr&%. 1oes the
di&gr&% e(pl&in everything yo need 'or the s&"e o' &n&ly.ing the &sse%bly lineK Wh&t else
shold be 8&nti'ied &nd %e&sredK
%&(&* +yes of )odels
As %entioned in Section 7.2.2, sever&l %odeling %ethods c&n be sed to develop & syste%
%odel. <he &n&lyst decides on the %odeling &ppro&ch by choosing & cert&in type o' %odel to
represent the &ct&l syste%. <he &n&lyst choice $ill be b&sed on sever&l criteri&, sch &s syste%
co%ple(ity, the obDectives o' syste% %odeling, &nd the cost o' %odeling. As sho$n in >igre 7.3,
$e c&n cl&ssi'y the v&rios types o' %odels into 'or %&Dor c&tegories9 physic&l %odels, gr&phic&l
%odels, %&the%&tic&l %odels, &nd co%pter %odels. >ollo$ing is & s%%&ry o' these types o'
%odels.
Figure %&*# <ypes o' syste% %odels.
Physical Models Physic&l %odels &re t&ngible prototypes o' &ct&l prodcts or processes.
Prototypes c&n se & ) 9 ) sc&le or &ny other 'e&sible sc&le o' choice. Sch %odels provide &
close/to/re&lity direct represent&tion o' the &ct&l syste% &nd c&n be sed to de%onstr&te the
syste%Es strctre, the role o' e&ch syste% ele%ent, &nd the &ct&l 'nction&lity o' the syste% o'
interest in & physic&l %&nner. <hey help designers &chieve & deeper nderst&nding o' syste%
strctre &nd det&ils &nd to try ot v&rios con'igr&tions o' design ele%ents be'ore the prodct is
&ct&lly bilt &nd the process deployed. <hey &re sed pri%&rily in engineering o' l&rge/sc&le
proDects to e(&%ine & li%ited set o' beh&vior&l ch&r&cteristics in the syste%. >or e(&%ple, &
stre&% &nd d&% %odel is sed to si%l&te the r&te o' ot'lo$ 'ro% the d&% nder & v&riety o'
circ%st&nces. Prototypes bilt 'or vehicles in ne$ c&r progr&%s or 'or bridges, bildings, &nd
other &rchitectr&l designs &re &ddition&l e(&%ples o' physic&l %odels. Physic&l %odels sch &s
c&r prototypes &re bilt 'ro% cl&y or $ood. <hree/di%ension&l prototype printing %&chines &re
&lso &v&il&ble to develop prototypes sing di''erent %&teri&ls. L&rios techni8es o' r&pid
prototyping &nd reverse engineering &re &lso sed to develop prodct &nd process prototypes.
>igre 7.7 sho$s e(&%ples o' prodct prototypes. Physic&l %odels c&n &lso be oper&tion&l
%odels, sch &s 'light si%l&tors &nd re&l/ti%e si%l&tors o' che%ic&l oper&tions. Another 'or% o'
physic&l %odel c&n be 'ond in ;ego/type %&chine &nd conveyor strctres, &nd pl&nts or re&ctor
%odels. <he bene'it o' physic&l %odels is the direct &nd e&sy/to/nderst&nd t&ngible
represent&tion o' the nderlying syste%. !o$ever, there &re sever&l li%it&tions to physic&l
%odels. <hese li%it&tions inclde the cost o' physic&l %odeling, $hich cold be enor%os in
so%e c&ses. #ot &ll syste%s c&n be %odeled $ith physic&l prototypes. So%e syste%s &re too
co%ple( to be prototyped. Jther physic&l %odels %ight be ti%e cons%ing &nd re8ire sperior
cr&'ting &nd develop%ent s"ills to be bilt. >or e(&%ple, thin" o' bilding & physic&l %odel 'or &
c&rEs intern&l co%bstion engine or &n &sse%bly line o' person&l co%pters. Wh&t types o' cost,
ti%e, co%ple(ity, &nd s"ill $old be involved in %odeling sch syste%sK
Figure %&%# ?(&%ples o' prodct prototypes. 4>ro% http9::$$$.centerpointdr&'ting.co%.5
Graphical Models Gr&phic&l %odels &re &bstr&ctions o' &ct&l prodcts or processes sing
gr&phic&l tools. <his type o' %odeling st&rts $ith p&per &nd pencil s"etches, progresses to
engineering dr&$ings, &nd ends $ith pictres &nd %ovies o' the syste% o' interest. Co%%on
syste% gr&phic&l represent&tions inclde & syste% l&yot, 'lo$ di&gr&%s, bloc" di&gr&%s,
net$or" di&gr&%s, process %&ps, &nd oper&tions ch&rts. Since gr&phic&l represent&tions &re
st&tic %odels, three/di%ension&l &ni%&tions &nd clip videos &re o'ten sed to illstr&te the
oper&tion o' & dyn&%ic syste% or the &sse%bly process o' & prodct. <his &dds to the di''iclty o'
&bstr&cting & co%ple( syste% gr&phic&lly, especi&lly $hen the nderlying prodct &nd process
&re still in the design ph&se. Sch gr&phic&l tools o'ten oversi%pli'y the re&lity o' the syste% in
bloc"s &nd &rro$s &nd do not provide technic&l &nd 'nction&lity det&ils o' the process. <he
&bsence o' dyn&%ic 'nction&lity in gr&phic&l represent&tions %&"es it di''iclt to try ot $h&t/i'
scen&rios &nd to e(pl&in ho$ the syste% responds to v&rios ch&nges in %odel p&r&%eters &nd
oper&ting conditions. Sch li%it&tions h&ve %&de %ost gr&phic&l tools p&rt o' or & prere8isite to
other %odeling techni8es, sch &s physic&l, %&the%&tic&l, &nd co%pter %odels. >igre 7.6
presents &n e(&%ple o' & gr&phic&l %odel 4the oper&tions ch&rt 'or & c&n opener5.
Figure %&,# Process gr&phic&l %odel.
Mathematical Models 2&the%&tic&l %odeling is the process o' representing syste% beh&vior
$ith 'or%l&s or %&the%&tic&l e8&tions. Sch %odels &re sy%bolic represent&tions o' syste%s
'nction&lity, decision 4control5 v&ri&bles, response, &nd constr&ints. <hey &ssist in 'or%l&ting
the syste% design proble% in & 'or% th&t is solv&ble sing gr&phic&l &nd c&lcls/b&sed
%ethods. 2&the%&tic&l %odels se %&the%&tic&l e8&tions, prob&bilistic %odels, &nd st&tistic&l
%ethods to represent the 'nd&%ent&l rel&tionships &%ong syste% co%ponents. <he e8&tions
c&n be derived in & n%ber o' $&ys. 2&ny o' the% co%e 'ro% e(tensive scienti'ic stdies th&t
h&ve 'or%l&ted & %&the%&tic&l rel&tionship &nd then tested it &g&inst re&l d&t&. 1esign 'or%l&s
'or stressCstr&in &n&lyses &nd %&the%&tic&l progr&%%ing %odels sch &s line&r &nd go&l
progr&%%ing &re e(&%ples o' %&the%&tic&l %odels. >igre 7.6 sho$s & %&the%&tic&l %odel
bilt sing the 2A<;A@ so't$&re tool. So%e %&the%&tic&l %odels &re b&sed on e%piric&l %odels
sch &s regression %odels &nd tr&ns'er 'nctions. 2&the%&tic&l %odels &re sed e(tensively
no$&d&ys to &n&ly.e $e&ther events, e&rth8&"e ris"s, &nd popl&tion dyn&%ics. <ypic&lly, &
%&the%&tic&l 'or%l& is & closed/'or% rel&tionship bet$een & dependent v&ri&ble 4%5 &nd one or
%ore independent v&ri&bles 4& 5 in the 'or% % = f4& 5. Sch & 'or%l& c&n be line&r or nonline&r
$ith & cert&in p&r&bolic order &s &n &ppro(i%&tion. <he dependent v&ri&ble is o'ten selected to
%e&sre & "ey ch&r&cteristic o' the syste%, sch &s the speed o' & vehicle, the yield o' &
process, the pro'it o' &n org&ni.&tion, the de%&nd o' & prodct, &nd so on. Independent v&ri&bles
o' the 'or%l& represent the "ey or critic&l p&r&%eters on $hich syste% response 4the "ey
ch&r&cteristic5 depends. ?(&%ples inclde the n%ber o' oper&tors in & pl&nt, s&les prices o'
prodcts, oper&ting e(penses, %&chine cycle ti%es, the n%ber o' drive/throgh $indo$s in &
'&st/'ood rest&r&nt, &nd so on. ?(pressing the syste% response &s & 'nction o' syste%
p&r&%eters &lso provides &n obDective 'nction 'or syste% e(peri%ent&l design, i%prove%ent
stdies, &nd opti%i.&tion.A typic&l e(&%ple is the se o' line&r progr&%%ing %odels 'or
&pplic&tions o' c&pit&l bdgeting, prodction pl&nning, resorces &lloc&tion, &nd '&cility loc&tion.
Jther e(&%ples inclde 8eing %odels, 2&r"ov ch&ins, line&r &nd nonline&r regression %odels,
bre&"/even &n&lysis, 'orec&sting %odels, &nd econo%ic order 8&ntity %odels. -n'ortn&tely, not
&ll syste% responses c&n be %odeled sing %&the%&tic&l 'or%l&s. <he co%ple(ity o' %ost re&l/
$orld syste%s precldes the &pplic&tion o' sch %odels. !ence, & set o' si%pli'ic&tion
&ss%ptions %st o'ten &cco%p&ny the &pplic&tion o' %&the%&tic&l %odels 'or the 'or%l&s to
hold. Sch &ss%ptions o'ten le&d to i%pr&ctic&l reslts th&t li%it the ch&nce o' i%ple%enting or
even, in so%e c&ses, considering sch reslts. >or e(&%ple, thin" o' developing & 'or%l& th&t
co%ptes & prodction syste% throghpt given p&r&%eters sch &s %&chine cycle ti%es,
speeds o' convey&nce syste%s, n%ber o' &sse%bly oper&tors, si.es o' syste% b''ers, &nd
pl&nt oper&ting p&ttern. Wh&t type o' %&the%&tic&l %odel $old yo se to &ppro(i%&te sch &
responseK !o$ represent&tive $ill the %&the%&tic&l %odel beK C&n yo se the throghpt
n%bers to pl&n schedle deliveries to csto%ersK
Figure %&-# <$o/di%ension&l %&the%&tic&l %odel.
Computer Models Co%pter %odels &re n%eric&l, gr&phic&l, &nd logic&l represent&tion o' &
syste% 4& prodct or & process5 th&t tili.es the c&p&bility o' & co%pter in '&st co%pt&tions,
l&rge c&p&city, consistency, &ni%&tion, &nd &ccr&cy. Co%pter si%l&tion %odels, $hich
represent the %iddle$&re o' %odeling, &re virt&l represent&tions o' re&l/$orld prodcts &nd
processes on the co%pter. Co%pter si%l&tions o' prodcts &nd processes &re developed
sing di''erent &pplic&tion progr&%s &nd so't$&re tools. >or e(&%ple, & co%pter progr&% c&n be
sed to per'or% 'inite ele%ent &n&lysis to &n&ly.e stresses &nd str&ins 'or & cert&in prodct
design, &s sho$n in >igre 7.*. Si%il&rly, sever&l %&the%&tic&l %odels th&t represent co%ple(
%&the%&tic&l oper&tions, control syste%s, 'lid %ech&nics, co%pter &lgorith%s, &nd others c&n
be bilt, &ni%&ted, &nd &n&ly.ed $ith co%pter tools. So't$&re tools &re &lso &v&il&ble to develop
st&tic &nd dyn&%ic &ni%&tions o' %&ny indstri&l processes.
Figure %&.# >inite ele%ent &n&lysis co%pter %odel.
Accr&te &nd $ell/bilt co%pter %odels co%pens&te 'or the li%it&tions o' the other types o'
%odels. <hey &re bilt sing so't$&re tools, $hich is e&sier, '&ster, &nd che&per th&n bilding
physic&l %odels. In &ddition, the 'le(ibility o' co%pter %odels &llo$ 'or 8ic" ch&nges, e&sy
testing o' $h&t/i's, &nd 8ic" ev&l&tion o' syste% per'or%&nce 'or e(peri%ent&l design &nd
opti%i.&tion stdies. Co%pter %odels &lso provide the bene'its o' gr&phic&l %odels $ith %odern
&ni%&tion &nd logic&l present&tion tools. Indeed, %ost co%pter %odels &re bilt sing gr&phic&l
%odeling tools. Co%p&red to %&the%&tic&l %odels, co%pter %odels &re %ch %ore re&listic
&nd e''icient. <hey tili.e co%pter c&p&bilities 'or %ore &ccr&te &ppro(i%&tions, they rn
co%plic&ted co%pt&tions in little ti%e, &nd they c&n %e&sre syste% per'or%&nce $ithot the
need 'or & closed/'or% de'inition o' the syste% obDective 'nction. Sch c&p&bilities %&de
co%pter %odels the %ost co%%on %odeling techni8es in tod&yEs prodction &nd bsiness
&pplic&tions. ;i%it&tions o' co%pter %odels inclde co%pter li%it&tions, &pplic&tion so't$&re
li%it&tions, the li%it&tions o' syste% co%ple(ity, &nd li%it&tions o' &n&lysts.
1iscrete event si%l&tion 41?S5 4discssed in det&il in Ch&pter 65 is co%pter si%l&tion th&t
%i%ics the oper&tion o' re&l/$orld processes &s they evolve over ti%e. <his type o' co%pter
%odel is the %&Dor 'ocs o' this boo", $here si%l&tion is sed &s & te%pl&te 'or &pplying le&n
si(/sig%& &nd design 'or si(/sig%& %ethods. 1?S co%pter %odeling &ssists in c&ptring the
dyn&%ics &nd logics o' syste% processes &nd esti%&ting the syste%Es long/ter% per'or%&nce
nder stoch&stic conditions. 2oreover, 1?S %odels &llo$ the ser to &s" $h&t/i' 8estions &bot
& syste%, present ch&nges th&t &re %&de in the physic&l conditions, &nd rn the syste% 4o'ten 'or
long periods5 to si%l&te the i%p&ct o' sch ch&nges. <he %odel reslts &re then co%p&red to
g&in insight into the beh&vior o' the syste%. >or e(&%ple, & 1?S pl&nt %odel c&n be sed to
esti%&te the &sse%bly line throghpt by rnning the %odel dyn&%ic&lly &nd tr&c"ing its
throghpt hor by hor or shi't by shi't. <he %odel c&n be &lso sed to &ssess %ltiple
prodction scen&rios b&sed on & long/ter% throghpt &ver&ge. As sho$n in >igre 7.+,
si%l&tion so't$&re tools provide & 'le(ible environ%ent o' %odeling &nd &n&lyses th&t %&"es
1?S inco%p&r&ble to %&the%&tic&l &nd physic&l %odels.
Figure %&/# 1?S environ%ent in the Si%l+ so't$&re p&c"&ge.
%&* Simulation )odeling
As sho$n e&rlier, modeling is the &rt &nd science o' c&ptring the 'nction&lity &nd the relev&nt
ch&r&cteristics o' re&l/$orld syste%s &nd presenting sch syste%s in & 'or% th&t '&cilit&tes
syste% "no$ledge, &n&lyses, i%prove%ent, &nd opti%i.&tion. Physic&l, gr&phic&l, %&the%&tic&l,
&nd co%pter %odels &re the %&Dor types o' %odels developed in di''erent engineering
&pplic&tions. <his section 'ocses on de'ining the simulation concept, developing the t&(ono%y o'
v&rios types o' si%l&tion %odels, &nd e(pl&ining the role o' si%l&tion in pl&nning, designing,
&nd i%proving the per'or%&nce o' %odern bsiness &nd prodction oper&tions.
%&*&' Simulation Defined
Simulation is $idely sed ter% in re'erence to co%pter si%l&tion %odels th&t represent &
prodct or & process. Sch %odels &re bilt b&sed on both %&the%&tic&l &nd logic&l rel&tionships
i%peded $ithin the syste% strctre. >or e(&%ple, 'inite ele%ent &n&lysis is the %&the%&tic&l
b&sis 'or & c&%sh&'t prodct si%l&tion %odel, &nd the oper&tion o' & '&ctory is the logic&l design
b&sis 'or & pl&nt process %odel.
System simulation or simulation modeling, in gener&l, is the %i%ic"ing &ctivity o' the oper&tion o'
& re&l syste%, in & co%pter, $ith & 'ocs on process 'lo$, logic, &nd dyn&%ics. <here'ore,
si%l&tion %e&ns %&"ing & si%pli'ied represent&tion o' &n origin&l. Jst &s & %odel &ircr&'t
c&ptres the %&ny o' the i%port&nt physic&l 'e&tres o' & re&l &ircr&'t, so & si%l&tion %odel
c&ptres the i%port&nt oper&tion&l 'e&tres o' & re&l syste%. ?(&%ples o' syste% si%l&tion &re
the d&y/to/d&y oper&tion o' & b&n", the v&le o' & stoc" port'olio over & ti%e period, the rnning o'
&n &sse%bly line in & '&ctory, &nd the st&'' &ssign%ent o' & hospit&l.
<here'ore, inste&d o' &tte%pting to bild e(tensive %&the%&tic&l %odels by e(perts, si%l&tion
so't$&re tools h&s %&de it possible to %odel &nd &n&ly.e the oper&tion o' & re&l syste% by
engineers &nd %&n&gers, not only progr&%%ers. <his &llo$s engineers to collect pertinent
in'or%&tion &bot the beh&vior o' the syste% by e(ecting & co%pteri.ed %odel inste&d o'
observing the re&l one.
In conclsion, the pri%&ry re8ire%ents 'or si%l&tion &re & si%l&tion &n&lyst 4e.g., & si(/sig%&
core te&% %e%ber or the te&% itsel'5 & co%pter, &nd & si%l&tion l&ng&ge or so't$&re tool.
<he &n&lyst is the "ey pl&yer in condcting the si%l&tion stdy. !e or she is responsible 'or
nderst&nding the re&l/$orld syste% &nd &n&ly.ing its ele%ents, logic, inpts, otpts, &nd go&ls,
in the %&nner presented in Section 7.2.). <he &n&lyst then oper&tes the co%pter syste% &nd
ses the so't$&re tool to bild, v&lid&te, &nd veri'y the si%l&tion %odel. >in&lly, the &n&lyst
&n&ly.es the reslts obt&ined 'ro% rnning the si%l&tion %odel &nd condcts e(peri%ent&l
design $ith the %odel in order to dr&$ conclsions on %odel beh&vior &nd deter%ine the best
p&r&%eter settings.
<he co%pter syste% provides the h&rd$&re &nd so't$&re tools re8ired to oper&te &nd rn the
si%l&tion. <he si%l&tion so't$&re or l&ng&ge provides the pl&t'or% &nd environ%ent th&t
'&cilit&tes %odel bilding, testing, debgging, &nd rnning. <he si%l&tion &n&lyst tili.es the
si%l&tion so't$&re on & c&p&ble co%pter syste% to develop & syste% si%l&tion %odel th&t
c&n be sed &s & pr&ctic&l 4close/to/re&lity5 represent&tion o' the &ct&l syste%. >igre 7.,
presents the si%l&tion concept.
Figure %&0# Si%l&tion concept.
%&*&( Simulation +axonomy
@&sed on the intern&l represent&tion sche%e selected, si%l&tion %odels c&n be discrete,
continuous, or com'ined. 1iscrete event si%l&tion %odels, $hich &re the 'ocs o' this boo", &re
the %ost co%%on &%ong si%l&tion types. 1?S %odels &re b&sed on & discrete intern&l
represent&tion o' %odel v&ri&bles 4v&ri&bles th&t ch&nge their st&te &t discrete points in ti%e5.
1?S %ech&nics &re discssed in det&il in Ch&pter 6.
In gener&l, discrete si%l&tion %odels 'ocs on %odeling discrete v&ri&bles th&t &re presented by
r&ndo% or prob&bilistic %odels, $here the st&te o' the syste% ch&nges in discrete points in ti%e.
A discrete v&ri&ble c&n be the n%ber o' csto%ers in & b&n", prodcts &nd co%ponents in &n
&sse%bly process, or c&rs in & drive/throgh rest&r&nt.
Continos si%l&tion %odels, on the other h&nd, 'ocs on continos v&ri&bles, r&ndo% or
prob&bilistic, $here the st&te o' the syste% ch&nges continosly. ?(&%ples o' continos
v&ri&bles inclde the level o' $&ter behind & d&%, che%ic&l processes in & petrole% re'inery,
&nd the 'lo$ o' 'lids in distribtion pipes.
Co%bined si%l&tion %odels inclde both discrete &nd continos ele%ents. >or e(&%ple,
sep&r&te 4discrete5 'lid cont&iners &rrive to & che%ic&l process $here 'lids &re pored into &
reservoir to be processed in & continos %&nner. >igre 7.)0 sho$s &n &ni%&tion o' & three/
di%ension&l discrete:continos si%l&tion o' pipe c&sting developed $ith & @roo"s Ato%&tion
Ato2od si%l&tion p&c"&ge.
Figure %&'1# 1iscrete:continos Ato2od si%l&tion %odel.
2&the%&tic&lly, $e c&n represent & %odel st&te sing & r&ndo% v&ri&ble &, $here &(t) is & st&te
v&ri&ble th&t ch&nges over ti%e t. >or e(&%ple, *(t) is & continos st&te v&ri&ble th&t represents
the del&y o' the ith csto%er in & b&n". Another e(&%ple o' & discrete/st&te v&ri&ble is the
n%ber o' csto%ers M+4t5N in & 8ee &t ti%e t in &n 2:2:) 8eing syste%.
>rther%ore, %odels &re either deterministic or stochastic depending $hether they %odel
r&ndo%ness &nd ncert&inty in & process or not. A stoch&stic process is & prob&bilistic %odel o' &
syste% th&t evolves r&ndo%ly in ti%e &nd sp&ce. >or%&lly, & stoch&stic process is & collection o'
r&ndo% v&ri&bles M&4t5N de'ined on & co%%on s&%ple 4prob&bility5 sp&ce. ?(&%ples o' stoch&stic
%odels oper&ting $ith r&ndo% v&ri&bles inclde inter&rriv&l ti%es o' csto%ers &rriving &t & b&n"
&nd service or processing ti%es o' csto%ers re8ests or tr&ns&ctions, v&ri&ble cycle ti%es, &nd
%&chinesE ti%e to '&ilre &nd ti%e to rep&ir p&r&%eters.
1eter%inistic %odels, on the other h&nd, involve no r&ndo% or prob&bilistic v&ri&bles in its
processes. ?(&%ples inclde %odeling 'i(ed/cycle/ti%e oper&tions, sch the c&se o' &to%&ted
syste%s &nd &rriv&ls $ith preset &ppoint%ents to & doctor or & l&$yerEs o''ice. <he %&Dority o'
re&l/$orld oper&tions &re prob&bilistic. !ence %ost si%l&tion stdies involve r&ndo% gener&tion
&nd s&%pling 'ro% cert&in prob&bility distribtions to %odel "ey syste% v&ri&bles. L&ri&bility in
%odel inpts le&d to v&ri&bility in %odel otpts. As sho$n in >igre 7.)), there'ore, &
deter%inistic %odel $ill gener&te stoch&stic response 4%5 $hen %odel inpts 4&), &2, &nd &35 &re
stoch&stic.
Figure %&''# 1eter%inistic %odel $ith stoch&stic response.
>in&lly, &nd b&sed on the n&tre o' %odel evolve%ent $ith ti%e, %odels c&n be static or dynamic.
In st&tic %odels the syste% st&te does not ch&nge over ti%e. >or e(&%ple, $hen & cert&in
resorce is &l$&ys &v&il&ble in & %&n'&ctring process, the st&te o' sch & resorce is 'i(ed $ith
ti%e. ?very ti%e this resorce is re8ired or needed, there $ill be no e(pected ch&nge in its
st&ts. 2onte C&rlo si%l&tion %odels &re ti%e/independent 4st&tic5 %odels th&t de&l $ith &
syste% o' 'i(ed st&tes. In sch spre&dsheet/li"e %odels, cert&in v&ri&ble v&les &re ch&nged by
r&ndo% gener&tion, &nd & cert&in %e&sre or %ore &re ev&l&ted &s to sch ch&nges $ithot
considering the ti%ing &nd the dyn&%ics o' sch ch&nges. 2ost oper&tion&l %odels &re, ho$ever,
dyn&%ic. Syste% st&te v&ri&bles o'ten ch&nge $ith ti%e, &nd the inter&ctions th&t reslt 'ro%
sch dyn&%ic ch&nges do &''ect the syste% beh&vior. !ence, in 1?S si%l&tion, the ti%e
di%ension is live. As sho$n in >igre 7.)2, & %odel c&n involve both st&tic &nd dyn&%ic
responses. <his &g&in %&"es 1?S %odels the %ost co%%on &%ong si%l&tion types since they
%odel v&ri&bles th&t ch&nge their st&te &t discrete points in ti%e.
Figure %&'(# St&tic &nd dyn&%ic %odel responses.
1yn&%ic si%l&tion %odels &re 'rther divided into ter%in&ting &nd nonter%in&ting %odels b&sed
on rn ti%e. <er%in&ting %odels &re stopped by & cert&in natural event, sch &s & doctor $ho
sees & li%ited n%ber o' p&tients per d&y, & $or"shop th&t 'inishes &ll 8&ntity in & cert&in order,
or & b&n" th&t oper&tes 'or + hors & d&y. In sch syste%s, the length o' & si%l&tion rn
depends on the n%ber o' ite%s processed, or on re&ching & speci'ied ti%e period, $ith the
%odel ter%in&ting pon co%pletion. 2odels th&t rn 'or & speci'ied period o'ten inclde initi&l
conditions sch &s cle&ning the syste%, 'illing b&n" A<2s, resetting co%pters in & govern%ent
o''ice, or e%ptying b''ers in &n &sse%bly line.
#onter%in&ting %odels, on the other h&nd, c&n rn continosly since the i%p&ct o' initi&li.&tion
is negligible over the long rn &nd no n&tr&l event h&s been speci'ied to stop the%. 2ost pl&nts
rn on & continos %ode, $here prodction lines st&rt every shi't $ithot e%ptying the syste%.
!ence, the rn ti%e 'or sch %odels is o'ten deter%ined st&tistic&lly to obt&in & ste&dy/st&te
response, &s $e discss l&ter.
>igre 7.)3 presents the t&(ono%y o' di''erent si%l&tion types $ith highlighted &ttribtes o' 1?S.
As noted in the 'igre, 1?S %odels &re digit&l 4discrete5, stoch&stic, &nd dyn&%ic co%pter
%odels o' ter%in&ting or nonter%in&ting 4ste&dy/st&te5 response. Sch three ch&r&cteristics o'ten
rese%ble the &ct&l beh&vior o' %&ny re&l/$orld syste%s &nd tr&ns&ction&l processes. >or
e(&%ple, in %&n'&ctring syste%s, the 'lo$ o' r&$ %&teri&l, &sse%bly co%ponents, &nd
prodcts c&n be %odeled &s discrete, dyn&%ic, &nd stoch&stic processes. Si%il&rly, %&ny service
'&cilities o'ten de&l $ith discrete entities th&t rn dyn&%ic&lly in & stoch&stic %&nner.
Figure %&'*# Si%l&tion t&(ono%y.
%&% +he Role Of Simulation
A'ter nderst&nding the v&rios %e&nings &nd &spects o' the ter% simulation modeling, it is
necess&ry to cl&ri'y the role th&t si%l&tion pl&ys in %odern indstri&l &nd bsiness 'ir%s. In this
section $e cl&ri'y the role o' si%l&tion by 'irst Dsti'ying the se o' si%l&tion both technically &nd
economically &nd then presenting the spectr% o' si%l&tion &pplic&tions to v&rios indstries in
the %&n'&ctring &nd service sectors. It is &lso $orth %entioning th&t sing si%l&tion in
indstri&l &nd bsiness &pplic&tion is the %ost co%%on bt not the only 'ield in $hich si%l&tion
is tili.edO it is &lso sed 'or edc&tion&l &nd le&rning prposes, tr&ining, virt&l re&lity
&pplic&tions, %ovies &nd &ni%&tion prodction, &nd cri%in&l Dstice, &%ong others.
%&%&' Simulation 2ustified
<he 8estion o' $hy &nd $hen to si%l&te is typic&l o' those th&t cross the %inds o' pr&ctitioners,
engineers, &nd %&n&gers. We si%ply si%l&te bec&se o' si%l&tion c&p&bilities th&t &re ni8e
&nd po$er'l in syste% represent&tion, per'or%&nce esti%&tion, &nd i%prove%ent. Si%l&tion is
o'ten the &n&lystsE re'ge $hen other soltion tools, sch &s %&the%&tic&l %odels, '&il or beco%e
e(tre%ely di''iclt to &ppro(i%&te the soltion to & cert&in proble%. 2ost re&l/$orld processes in
prodction &nd bsiness syste%s &re co%ple(, stoch&stic, &nd highly nonline&r &nd dyn&%ic,
$hich %&"es it &l%ost i%possible to present the% sing physic&l or %&the%&tic&l %odels.
Atte%pts to se &n&lytic&l %odels in &ppro&ching re&l syste%s s&lly re8ire %&ny
&ppro(i%&tions &nd si%pli'ying &ss%ptions. <his o'ten yields soltions th&t &re nsit&ble 'or
proble%s o' re&l/$orld &pplic&tions.
<here'ore, &n&lysts o'ten se si%l&tion $henever they %eet co%ple( proble%s th&t c&nnot be
solved by other %e&ns, sch &s %&the%&tic&l &nd c&lcls/b&sed %ethods. <he per'or%&nce o'
& re&l syste% is & co%plic&ted 'nction o' the design p&r&%eters, &nd &n &n&lytic&l closed/'or%
e(pression o' the obDective 'nction or the constr&ints %&y not e(ist. A si%l&tion %odel c&n
there'ore be sed to repl&ce the %&the%&tic&l 'or%l&tion o' the nderlying syste%. With the &id
o' the %odel &nd r&ther th&n considering every possible v&ri&tion o' circ%st&nces 'or the
co%ple( proble%, & s&%ple o' possible e(ection p&ths is t&"en &nd stdied.
In short, si%l&tion is o'ten tili.ed $hen the beh&vior o' & syste% is co%ple(, stoch&stic 4r&ther
th&n deter%inistic5, &nd dyn&%ic 4r&ther th&n st&tic5. An&lytic&l %ethods, sch &s 8eing
syste%s, inventory %odels, &nd 2&r"ovi&n %odels, $hich &re co%%only sed to &n&ly.e
prodction &nd bsiness syste%s, o'ten '&il to provide st&tistics on syste% per'or%&nce $hen
re&l/$orld conditions intensi'y to over$hel% &nd e(ceed the syste%/&ppro(i%&ting &ss%ptions.
?(&%ples inclde entities $hose &rriv&l &t & pl&nt or b&n" is not & Poisson process, &nd the 'lo$
o' entities is b&sed on co%ple( decision rles nder stoch&stic v&ri&bility $ithin &v&il&bility o'
syste% resorces.
*ecision support is &nother co%%on Dsti'ic&tion o' si%l&tion stdies. Jbviosly, engineers &nd
%&n&gers $&nt to %&"e the best decisions possible, especi&lly $hen encontering critic&l st&ges
o' design, e(p&nsion, or i%prove%ent proDects $here the re&l syste% h&s not yet been bilt. @y
c&re'lly &n&ly.ing the hypothetic&l syste% $ith si%l&tion, designers c&n &void proble%s $ith
the re&l syste% $hen it is bilt. Si%l&tion stdies &t this st&ge %&y reve&l insr%ont&ble
proble%s th&t cold reslt in proDect c&ncell&tion, &nd s&ve cost, e''ort, &nd ti%e. Sch s&vings
&re obt&ined since it is &l$&ys che&per &nd s&'er to le&rn 'ro% %ist&"es %&de $ith & si%l&ted
syste% 4& co%pter %odel5 th&n to %&"e the% 'or re&l. Si%l&tion c&n redce cost, redce ris",
&nd i%prove &n&lystsE nderst&nding o' the syste% nder stdy.
<he econo%ic Dsti'ic&tion o' si%l&tion o'ten pl&ys & role in selecting si%l&tion &s & soltion tool
in design &nd i%prove%ent stdies. Althogh si%l&tion stdies %ight be costly &nd ti%e
cons%ing in so%e c&ses, the bene'its &nd s&vings obt&ined 'ro% sch stdies o'ten recover the
si%l&tion cost &nd &void %ch 'rther costs. Si%l&tion costs &re typic&lly the initi&l si%l&tion
so't$&re &nd co%pter cost, ye&rly %&inten&nce &nd pgr&de cost, tr&ining cost, engineering
ti%e cost, &nd other costs9 'or tr&veling, prep&ring present&tions $ith %lti%edi& tools, &nd so on.
Sch costs &re o'ten recovered $ith the 'irst t$o or three sccess'l si%l&tion proDects. >rther,
the cost &nd ti%e o' si%l&tion stdies &re o'ten redced by &n&lyst e(perience &nd beco%e
%inscle co%p&red to the long/ter% s&vings 'ro% incre&sing prodctivity &nd e''iciency.
%&%&( Simulation Ali$ations
A better &ns$er to the 8estion F$hy si%l&teKA c&n be re&ched by e(ploring the $ide spectr%
o' si%l&tion &pplic&tions to &ll &spects o' science &nd technology. <his spectr% st&rts by sing
si%l&tion in b&sic sciences to esti%&te the &re& nder & crve, ev&l&ting %ltiple integr&ls, &nd
stdying p&rticle di''sion, &nd continer by tili.ing si%l&tion in pr&ctic&l sit&tions &nd
designing 8eing syste%s, co%%nic&tion net$or"s, econo%ic 'orec&sting, bio%edic&l syste%s,
&nd $&r str&tegies &nd t&ctics.
<od&y, si%l&tion is being sed 'or & $ide r&nge o' &pplic&tions in both %&n'&ctring &nd
bsiness oper&tions. As & po$er'l tool, si%l&tion %odels o' %&n'&ctring syste%s &re sed9
<o deter%ine the throghpt c&p&bility o' & %&n'&ctring cell or &sse%bly line
<o deter%ine the n%ber o' oper&tors in & l&bor/intensive &sse%bly process
<o deter%ine the n%ber o' &to%&ted gided vehicles in & co%ple( %&teri&l/h&ndling
syste%
<o deter%ine the n%ber o' c&rriers in &n electri'ied %onor&il syste%
<o deter%ine the n%ber o' stor&ge &nd retriev&l %&chines in & co%ple( &to%&ted
stor&ge &nd retriev&l syste%
<o deter%ine the best ordering policies 'or &n inventory control syste%
<o v&lid&te the prodction pl&n in %&teri&l re8ire%ent pl&nning
<o deter%ine the opti%&l b''er si.es 'or $or"/in/progress prodcts
<o pl&n the c&p&city o' sb&sse%blies 'eeding & prodction %&inline
>or bsiness oper&tions, si%l&tion %odels &re &lso being sed 'or & $ide r&nge o' &pplic&tions9
<o deter%ine the n%ber o' b&n" tellers, $hich reslts in redcing csto%er $&iting ti%e
by & cert&in percent&ge
<o design distribtion &nd tr&nsport&tion net$or"s to i%prove the per'or%&nce o' logistic
&nd vending syste%s
<o &n&ly.e & co%p&nyEs 'in&nci&l syste%
<o design the oper&ting policies in & '&st/'ood rest&r&nt to redce csto%er ti%e/in/
syste% &nd incre&se csto%er s&tis'&ction
<o ev&l&te h&rd$&re &nd so't$&re re8ire%ents 'or & co%pter net$or"
<o design the oper&ting policies in &n e%ergency roo% to redce p&tient $&iting ti%e &nd
schedle the $or"ing p&ttern o' the %edic&l st&''
<o &ssess the i%p&ct o' govern%ent regl&tions on di''erent pblic services &t both the
%nicip&l &nd n&tion&l levels
<o test the 'e&sibility o' di''erent prodct develop%ent processes &nd to ev&l&te their
i%p&ct on co%p&nyEs bdget &nd co%petitive str&tegy
<o design co%%nic&tion syste%s &nd d&t& tr&ns'er protocols
<&ble 7.) lists e(&%ples o' si%l&tion &pplic&tions in the %&n'&ctring &nd service sectors.
+a3le %&'# Examles of Simulation Ali$ations
Jpen t&ble &s spre&dsheet
)anufa$turing "ndustries Ser4i$e "ndustries
Ato%otive @&n"ing indstry
Aerosp&ce !e&lth syste%s
Pl&stics indstry !otel oper&tions
P&per %ills Co%%nic&tion services
!ose &ppli&nces Co%pter net$or"s
>rnitre %&n'&ctring <r&nsport&tion syste%s
Che%ic&l indstry ;ogistics &nd spply ch&in
Clothing &nd te(tile 0est&r&nts &nd '&st 'ood
P&c"&ging Post&l services
Stor&ge &nd retriev&l Airport oper&tions
<o re&ch the go&ls o' the si%l&tion stdy, cert&in ele%ents o' e&ch si%l&ted syste% o'ten
beco%e the 'ocs o' & si%l&tion %odel. 2odeling &nd tr&c"ing sch ele%ents provide &ttribtes
&nd st&tistics necess&ry to design, i%prove, &nd opti%i.e the nderlying syste% per'or%&nce.
<&ble 7.2 presents e(&%ples o' si%l&ted syste%s $ith %odel %&in ele%ents in e&ch syste%.
+a3le %&(# Examles of Simulated Systems
Jpen t&ble &s spre&dsheet
Simulated System Examles of )odel Elements 5E-R-"-C-O6
2&n'&ctring syste% P&rts, %&chines, oper&tors, conveyors, stor&ge
?%ergency 0oo% P&tients, beds, doctors, nrses, $&iting roo%
@&n" Csto%ers, b&n" tellers, A<2S, lo&n o''icers
0et&il store Shoppers, chec"ot c&sh registers, csto%er service
+a3le %&(# Examles of Simulated Systems
Jpen t&ble &s spre&dsheet
Simulated System Examles of )odel Elements 5E-R-"-C-O6
Co%pter net$or" Server, client PCS, &d%inistr&tor, d&t& protocol
>ree$&y syste% C&rs, tr&''ic lights, ro&d eg%ents, interch&nges
>&st/'ood rest&r&nt Servers, csto%ers, c&rs, drive/throgh $indo$s
@order crossing point C&rs, csto%s &gents, booths ,i%%igr&tion o''icers
Cl&ss registr&tion o''ice Stdents, corses, registr&tion st&tions, helpers
Spply ch&in:logistics Sppliers &nd vendors tr&nsport&tion syste%, clients
%&%&* Simulation !re$autions
;i"e &ny other engineering tool, si%l&tion h&s li%it&tions. Sch li%it&tions shold be de&lt $ith
&s & %otiv&tion &nd shold not discor&ge &n&lysts &nd decision %&"ers. Pno$ing li%it&tions o'
the tool in h&nd shold e%ph&si.e sing it $isely &nd %otiv&te the ser to develop cre&tive
%ethods &nd est&blish the correct &ss%ptions th&t bene'it 'ro% the po$er'l si%l&tion
c&p&bilities &nd preclde si%l&tion li%it&tions 'ro% being & d&%ping '&ctor. !o$ever, cert&in
prec&tions shold be considered in sing si%l&tion to &void the potenti&l pit'&lls o' si%l&tion.
?(&%ples o' isses th&t $e shold p&y &ttention to $hen considering si%l&tion inclde the
'ollo$ing9
). <he si%l&tion &n&lyst or decision %&"er shold be &ble to &ns$er the 8estion o' $hen
not to si%l&te. A lot o' si%l&tion stdies &re considered to be design over"ill $hen
condcted 'or solving proble%s o' rel&tive si%plicity. Sch proble%s c&n be solved sing
engineering &n&lysis, co%%on sense, or %&the%&tic&l %odels. !ence, the only bene'its
'ro% &ppro&ching si%ple syste%s $ith si%l&tion is being &ble to pr&ctic %odeling &nd to
provide &n &ni%&tion o' the t&rgeted process.
2. <he cost &nd ti%e o' si%l&tion shold be considered &nd pl&nned $ell. 2&ny si%l&tion
stdies &re nderesti%&ted in ter%s o' ti%e &nd cost. So%e decision %&"ers thin" o'
si%l&tion stdy &s %odel/bilding ti%e &nd cost. Althogh %odel bilding is & critic&l
ph&se o' & si%l&tion stdy, it o'ten cons%es less ti%e &nd cost th&n does e(peri%ent&l
design or d&t& collection.
3. <he s"ill &nd "no$ledge o' the si%l&tion &n&lyst. @eing &n engineer is &l%ost essenti&l
'or si%l&tion pr&ctitioners bec&se o' the type o' &n&lytic&l, st&tistic&l, &nd syste%
&n&lyses s"ills re8ired 'or condcting si%l&tion stdies.
7. ?(pect&tions 'ro% the si%l&tion stdy shold be re&listic &nd not overesti%&ted. A lot o'
pro'ession&ls thin" o' si%l&tion &s & Fcryst&l b&llA throgh $hich they c&n predict &nd
opti%i.e syste% beh&vior. It shold be cle&r to the &n&lyst th&t si%l&tion %odels
the%selves &re not syste% opti%i.ers. While it shold be &sserted th&t si%l&tion is Dst &
tool &nd &n e(peri%ent&l pl&t'or%, it shold &lso be e%ph&si.ed th&t co%bining si%l&tion
$ith &ppropri&te st&tistic&l &n&lyses, e(peri%ent&l design, &nd e''icient se&rch engine c&n
le&d to inv&l&ble syste% in'or%&tion th&t bene'its pl&nning, design, &nd opti%i.&tion.
6. <he reslts obt&ined 'ro% si%l&tion %odels &re &s good &s the %odel d&t& inpts,
&ss%ptions, &nd logic&l design. <he co%%only sed phr&se gar'age,in,gar'age,out
4GIGJ5 is very &pplic&ble to si%l&tion stdies. !ence, speci&l &ttention shold be p&id to
d&t& inpts selection, 'iltering, &nd &ss%ptions.
6. <he &n&lyst shold p&y &ttention to the level o' det&il incorpor&ted in the %odel.
1epending on the obDectives o' the si%l&tion stdy &nd the in'or%&tion &v&il&ble, the
&n&lyst shold decide on the &%ont o' det&il incorpor&ted into the si%l&tion %odel.
So%e stdy obDectives c&n be re&ched $ith %&cro/level %odeling, $here&s others re8ire
%icro/level %odeling. <here is no need 'or the &n&lyst to e(h&st his or her %odeling s"ills
trying to incorpor&te det&ils th&t &re irrelev&nt to si%l&tion obDectives. Inste&d, the %odel
shold be 'ocsed on providing the %e&ns o' syste% &n&lysis th&t yields reslts directly
relev&nt to stdy obDectives.
*. 2odel v&lid&tion &nd veri'ic&tion is not & trivi&l t&s". As discssed l&ter, %odel v&lid&tion
'ocses on %&"ing sre th&t & %odel beh&ves &s re8ired by the %odel/designed logic
&nd th&t its response re'lects the d&t& sed into the %odel. 2odel veri'ic&tion, on the other
h&nd, 'ocses on %&"ing sre th&t the %odel beh&vior rese%bles the intended beh&vior o'
the &ct&l si%l&ted syste%. @oth pr&ctices deter%ine the degree o' %odel reli&bility &nd
re8ire the &n&lyst to be '&%ili&r $ith the s"ills o' %odel testing &nd the strctre &nd
'nction&lity o' the &ct&l syste%.
+. <he reslts o' si%l&tion c&n e&sily be %isinterpreted. !ence, the &n&lyst shold
concentr&te e''orts on collecting reli&ble reslts 'ro% the %odel throgh proper settings o'
rn controls 4$&r%/p period, rn length, &nd n%ber o' replic&tions5 &nd on sing the
proper st&tistic&l &n&lyses to dr&$ %e&ning'l &nd &ccr&te conclsions 'ro% the %odel.
<ypic&l %ist&"es in interpreting si%l&tion reslts inclde relying on & short rn ti%e 4not &
ste&dy/st&te response5, inclding in the reslts bi&ses c&sed by initi&l %odel conditions,
sing the reslts o' one si%l&tion replic&tion, &nd relying on the response %e&n $hile
ignoring the v&ri&bility enco%p&ssed into response v&les.
,. Si%l&tion inpts &nd otpts shold be co%%nic&ted cle&rly &nd correctly to &ll p&rties
o' & si%l&tion stdy. Syste% speci&lists sch &s process engineers &nd syste%
%&n&gers need to be &$&re o' the d&t& sed &nd the %odel logic in order to veri'y the
%odel &nd incre&se its re&listic represent&tion. Si%il&rly, the reslts o' the si%l&tion
%odel shold be co%%nic&ted to get 'eedb&c" 'ro% p&rties on the relev&ncy &nd
&ccr&cy o' reslts.
)0. <he &n&lyst shold &void sing incorrect %e&sres o' per'or%&nce $hen bilding &nd
&n&ly.ing %odel reslts. 2odel per'or%&nce %e&sres shold be progr&%%ed correctly
into the %odel &nd shold be represented by st&tistics collected 'ro% the %odel. Sch
%e&sres shold &lso represent the type o' in'or%&tion essenti&l to the &n&lyst &nd
decision %&"er to dr&$ conclsions &nd in'erences &bot %odel beh&vior.
)). <he &n&lyst shold &void the %isse o' %odel &ni%&tion. In '&ct, &ni%&tion is &n
i%port&nt si%l&tion c&p&bility th&t provides engineers &nd decision %&"ers $ith & gre&t
tool 'or syste% vis&li.&tion &nd response observ&nce. !ence, it is tre th&t F& pictre is
$orth & thos&nd $ords.A Sch & tool is &lso se'l 'or %odel debgging, v&lid&tion &nd
veri'ic&tion, &nd present&tion to e(ectives &nd csto%ers. !o$ever, & lot o' people
%isse %odel &ni%&tion &nd rely on their observ&tion to dr&$ conclsions &s to %odel
long/ter% beh&vior. Given th&t si%l&tion %odels &re stoch&stic &nd dyn&%ic in n&tre, it
shold be cle&r to the &n&lyst th&t & %odelEs st&ts &t & cert&in ti%e does not necess&rily
re'lect its long/ter% beh&vior. Inste&d, %odel st&tistics &re & better represent&tion o' %odel
response.
)2. <he &n&lyst needs to get the spport o' pper %&n&ge%ent &nd decision %&"ers to %&"e
& si%l&tion stdy 'rit'l &nd sccess'l.
)3. >in&lly, the &n&lyst shold select the &ppropri&te si%l&tion so't$&re tools th&t 'it the
&n&lystEs "no$ledge &nd e(pertise &nd th&t &re c&p&ble o' %odeling the nderlying syste%
&nd providing the si%l&tion reslts re8ired. <he criteri& 'or selecting the proper
si%l&tion so't$&re tools &re &v&il&ble in the liter&tre &nd &re not the 'ocs o' this boo". It
shold be "no$n, ho$ever, th&t si%l&tion p&c"&ges v&ry in their c&p&bilities &nd
inclsiveness o' di''erent %odeling syste%s &nd techni8es, sch &s conveyor syste%s,
po$er &nd 'ree syste%s, &to%&ted gided vehicle syste%s, "ine%&tics, &to%&ted
stor&ge &nd retriev&l syste%s, h%&n %odeling c&p&bilities, st&tistic&l tools, opti%i.&tion
%ethods, &ni%&tion, &nd so on.
%&, Simulation Soft7are
Si%l&tion so't$&re tools &re in co%%on se &%ong si%l&tion &nd si(/sig%& pr&ctitioners in
v&rios types o' &pplic&tions &nd 'or di''erent prposes. <he %&Dor bene'it th&t si%l&tion
p&c"&ges provide to si(/sig%& pr&ctitioners is the &bility to %odel dyn&%ic syste%s nder close/
to re&l/$orld conditions. Processes o' & tr&ns&ction&l n&tre in both %&n'&ctring &nd services
o'ten beh&ve in & co%ple(, dyn&%ic, &nd stoch&stic %&nner. Sch c&p&bility there'ore &llo$s
&n&lysts to better e(press ne$ concepts &nd designs 'or tr&ns&ction&l processes, to %e&sre
process per'or%&nce $ith ti%e/b&sed %etrics, to condct st&tistic&l &n&lyses, &nd to i%prove or
opti%i.e ne$ &nd crrent syste%s.
Indeed, %&ny si%l&tion so't$&re tools $ere initi&lly bilt by pr&ctitioners to %odel p&rticl&r re&l/
$orld syste%s, sch &s %&teri&l h&ndling syste%s, he&lth syste%s, &nd &sse%bly lines. <hey
$ere bilt 'ro% entities &nd processes th&t %i%ic the obDects &nd &ctivities in the re&l syste%. <o
'rther %eet the needs o' si(/sig%& pr&ctitioners &nd engineers in gener&l, si%l&tion vendors
developed &nd integr&ted %&ny %odles into their so't$&re prodcts to si%pli'y %odel bilding,
'&cilit&te %odel csto%i.&tion, &llo$ 'or the cre&tion o' i%pressive &ni%&tion, &nd en&ble &n&lysts
to condct st&tistic&l &n&lyses &nd rn opti%i.&tion se&rches. So%e o' these %odles inclde si(/
sig%& de'initions &nd c&lcl&tors &nd provide lin"s to spre&dsheet &nd st&tistic&l so't$&re to rn
e(peri%ent&l designs &nd si(/sig%& &n&lyses directly. >igre 7.)7 sho$s &n e(&%ple o' & 'le(ible
si%l&tion environ%ent developed $ith the WI<#?SS si%l&tion p&c"&ge. WI<#?SS incldes &
%odle 'or si(/sig%& c&lcl&tion, & %odle 'or opti%i.&tion, &nd & direct lin" to the 2I#I<A@
st&tistic&l p&c"&ge.
Figure %&'%# >le(ible si%l&tion so't$&re 'or %odeling &nd &n&lyses.
<he spectr% o' si%l&tion so't$&re crrently &v&il&ble r&nges 'ro% procedr&l l&ng&ges &nd
si%l&tion l&ng&ges to speci&l si%l&tors. <he v&st &%ont o' si%l&tion so't$&re &v&il&ble c&n
be over$hel%ing 'or ne$ sers. Co%%on so't$&re p&c"&ges inclde Ato2od,WI<#?SS,
Si%l+, &nd Aren&. In Ch&pter )) $e provide & co%prehensive list o' si%l&tion so't$&re tools
&nd vendors &nd provide 'rther det&ils on si%l&tion so't$&re 'e&tres, &pplic&tions, &nd
co%p&risons.
%&- Summary
@&sic concepts o' si%l&tion %odeling inclde the syste%, %odel, &nd si%l&tion concepts.
Syste%s inclde inpts, entities, rel&tionships, controls, &nd otpts. Syste% ele%ents shold be
tned to$&rd &tt&ining &n over&ll syste% go&l. A syste% %odel is & represent&tion or &n
&ppro(i%&tion o' & re&l/$orld syste%. 2odels c&n be physic&l, gr&phic&l, %&the%&tic&l, &nd
co%pter %odels. <he go&l o' %odeling is to provide & tool 'or syste% &n&lysis, design, &nd
i%prove%ent th&t is che&per, '&ster, &nd e&sier to nderst&nd. Si%l&tion is the &rt &nd science
o' %i%ic"ing the oper&tion o' & re&l/$orld syste% on the co%pter. It is &i%ed &t c&ptring the
co%ple(, dyn&%ic, &nd stoch&stic ch&r&cteristics o' & re&l/$orld process, $here other types o'
%odels '&ll short. @&sed on the type o' st&te v&ri&bles, co%pter si%l&tion %odels c&n be
discrete, continos, or co%bined. <hey c&n &lso be deter%inistic or stoch&stic, b&sed on
r&ndo%ness %odeling. >in&lly, they c&n be st&tic or dyn&%ic, b&sed on the ch&nges o' syste%
st&te. <he 'ocs o' this boo" is on discrete event si%l&tion %odels, $hich represent syste%sE
co%ple( &nd stoch&stic beh&vior dyn&%ic&lly in ter%s o' discrete st&te v&ri&bles. 1?S is Dsti'ied
by its gro$ing c&p&bility, so't$&re tools, &nd $ide spectr% o' re&l/$orld &pplic&tions. 1?S
si%l&tion is the b&c"bone o' si%l&tion/b&sed le&n si(/sig%& &nd design 'or le&n si(/sig%&.
Chater ,# Dis$rete E4ent Simulation
,&' "ntrodu$tion
As discssed in Ch&pter 7, co%pter si%l&tion, is & techni8e th&t i%it&tes the oper&tion o' &
re&l/$orld syste% &s it evolves over time. 4See Section 7.2.) 'or the de'inition o' system sed in
this boo".5 It is considered &n e(peri%ent&l &nd &pplied %ethodology th&t see"s to describe the
beh&vior o' syste%s, constrct hypotheses th&t &ccont 'or observed beh&vior, &nd predict 'tre
beh&vior. A si%l&tion is there'ore the e(ection o' & %odel, represented by & co%pter progr&%
th&t gives in'or%&tion &bot the syste% being investig&ted.
Process si%l&tion, o'ten sed to %odel prodction &nd bsiness processes in both the
%&n'&ctring &nd service sectors, is re'erred to &s discrete e-ent simulation 41?S5. 1iscrete
event syste%s &re dyn&%ic syste%s th&t evolve in ti%e by the occrrence o' events &t possibly
irregl&r ti%e interv&ls. Since this rese%bles the n&tre o' the %&Dority o' re&l/$orld prodction
&nd bsiness syste%s, 1?S %odels &re sed $idely in re&l/$orld &pplic&tions. ?(&%ples inclde
tr&''ic syste%s, %&n'&ctring syste%s, co%pter/co%%nic&tions syste%s, c&ll centers, b&n"
oper&tions, hospit&ls, rest&r&nts, prodction lines, &nd 'lo$ net$or"s. 2ost o' these syste%s
c&n be %odeled in ter%s o' discrete events $hose occrrence c&ses the syste% to ch&nge 'ro%
one st&te to &nother in & stoch&stic %&nner.
<he simulation modeling approach 'or &n&ly.ing & prodction or bsiness syste% is opposed to
the &n&lytic&l &ppro&ch, $here the %ethod o' &n&ly.ing the syste% is prely theoretic&l or &n
&ppro(i%&tion o' & theoretic&l %odel. As & %ore re&listic &ltern&tive to the &n&lytic&l &ppro&ch,
the si%l&tion &ppro&ch gives %ore 'le(ibility to the si(/sig%& te&% &nd convenience to the
decision %&"er by tili.ing cert&in e''ective %ech&nics. ?vents &ctiv&tion, r&ndo% n%ber
gener&tion, &nd ti%e &dv&nce%ent &re the %&in 1?S %ech&nics. ?vents, $hich &re &ctiv&ted &t
cert&in points in ti%e, &''ect the over&ll st&te o' the syste% 4syste% v&ri&bles, resorces, entity
'lo$, etc.5. <he points in ti%e &t $hich &n event is &ctiv&ted &re s&lly r&ndo%i.ed sing &
r&ndo% n%ber gener&tion techni8e th&t is bilt in the %odel so't$&re tool so th&t no inpt 'ro%
otside the syste% is re8ired. Si%l&tion events e(ist &tono%osly in & discrete %&nner. <i%e
4& si%l&tion cloc"5 is there'ore &dv&nced to & ne(t schedled event since nothing $ill h&ppen
bet$een the e(ection o' &ny t$o consective events. In &ddition to po$er'l 1?S %ech&nics,
'&st co%pt&tions on tod&yEs high/speed processors, &long $ith gro$ing gr&phics c&p&bility, h&ve
contribted gre&tly to the e''ectiveness &nd &ni%&tion or vis&li.&tion c&p&bility in 1?S %odels.
<his ch&pter provides & deeper nderst&nding o' the 1?S process, co%ponents, &nd
%ech&nis%s. ?(&%ples o' %&n&l si%l&tions &re sed to cl&ri'y 1?S 'nction&lity.
,&( System )odeling 8ith DES
@y tili.ing co%pter c&p&bilities in logic&l progr&%%ing, r&ndo% gener&tion, '&st co%pt&tions,
&nd &ni%&tion, 1?S %odeling is c&p&ble o' c&ptring the ch&r&cteristics o' & re&l/$orld process
&nd esti%&ting syste% per'or%&nce %e&sres &t di''erent settings o' its design p&r&%eters. <his
is p&rticl&rly i%port&nt in si(/sig%& 1A2IC &nd 1>SS &pplic&tions, $here syste% per'or%&nce
is opti%i.ed &nd i%proved. <o %e&sre sch per'or%&nce, 1?S i%it&tes the stoch&stic &nd
co%ple( oper&tion o' & re&l/$orld syste% &s it evolves over ti%e &nd see"s to describe &nd
predict the syste%Es &ct&l beh&vior.
<he 1?S &ppro&ch h&s n%eros po$er'l c&p&bilities th&t c&n provide the si(/sig%& te&% $ith
in'or%&tion ele%ents th&t 8&nti'y the syste% ch&r&cteristics, sch &s design or decision
p&r&%eters &nd per'or%&nce %e&sres 4C<Bs:C<Ss5. Sch in'or%&tion %&"es & 1?S %odel &n
e''ective decision spport syste%. >or e(&%ple, 1?S c&n be sed to esti%&te the n%ber o'
resorces needed in & syste% 4e.g., ho$ %&ny oper&tors, %&chines, trc"s5. <he %odel c&n &lso
be sed to &rr&nge &nd b&l&nce resorces to &void bottlenec"s, cross/tr&''ic, b&c"tr&c"ing, &nd
e(cessive $&iting ti%es or inventories.
<o$&rd this end, syste% %odeling $ith 1?S incldes %i%ic"ing the strctre, l&yot, d&t&, logic,
&nd st&tistics o' the re&l/$orld syste% &nd representing the% in & 1?S %odel. An &bstr&ction o'
syste% %odeling $ith 1?S is illstr&ted in >igre 6.). Abstr&cting the re&l/$orld syste% in & 1?S
%odel c&n be &ppro&ched by precise nderst&nding &nd speci'ic&tion o' the det&ils o' the 'ive
syste% %odeling ele%ents sho$n in the 'igre.
Figure ,&'# ?le%ents o' syste% %odeling $ith 1?S.
,&(&' System Stru$ture
A syste% 1?S %odel is e(pected to inclde the strctre o' the &ct&l syste% being si%l&ted.
<his strctre is b&sic&lly the set o' syste% ele%ents in ter%s o' physic&l co%ponents, pieces o'
e8ip%ent, resorces, %&teri&ls, 'lo$ lines, &nd in'r&strctre. 1epending on the n&tre o' the
syste% being %odeled &nd the obDective o' the si%l&tion stdy, the si(/sig%& te&% o'ten
decides on $h&t ele%ents to inclde in the si%l&tion %odel. ?le%ents o' & %&n'&ctring
syste% &re di''erent 'ro% the ele%ents o' & bsiness syste%. Where&s %&n'&ctring syste%s
&re %odeled sing %&chines, l&bor, $or"pieces, conveyors, &nd so on, bsiness syste%s &re
%odeled sing h%&n st&'', csto%ers, in'or%&tion 'lo$, service oper&tions, &nd tr&ns&ctions.
2odeling sch ele%ents thoroghly is $h&t %&"es & %odel re&listic &nd represent&tive. !o$ever,
the level o' det&ils &nd speci'ic&tions o' %odel strctr&l ele%ents depends pri%&rily on the
obDective &nd prpose 'or bilding the %odel. >or e(&%ple, the det&ils o' %&chine co%ponents
&nd "ine%&tics %&y not be help'l in esti%&ting its tili.&tion &nd e''ectiveness. !ence, b&sic
gr&phic&l represent&tions o' strctr&l ele%ents &re o'ten sed in 1?S %odels 'or &ni%&tion
prposes. Jn the other h&nd, physic&l ch&r&cteristics sch &s di%ensions, sp&ce, dist&nces, &nd
p&th$&ys th&t o'ten &''ect 'lo$ rotes, cycle ti%es, &nd c&p&city shold be p&rt o' the %odel
strctre. >or & pl&nt or & %&n'&ctring syste%, <&ble 6.) sho$s e(&%ples o' strctr&l
ele%ents &nd their i%p&ct on %odel per'or%&nce '&ctors.
+a3le ,&'# Examles of Stru$tural Elements in DES
Jpen t&ble &s spre&dsheet
Stru$tural Element )odeled )odel !erforman$e Fa$tor Affe$ted
Conveyor length Conveyor c&p&city
-nit lo&d di%ensions #%ber o' nits st&c"ed
@''er si.e @''er c&p&city
;ength o' &isles &nd $&l"$&ys W&l"ing dist&nce &nd ti%e
Si.e o' &to%&ted gided vehicle AGL #%ber o' AGL c&rriers
;ength o' %onor&il C&rrier tr&veling ti%e
+a3le ,&'# Examles of Stru$tural Elements in DES
Jpen t&ble &s spre&dsheet
Stru$tural Element )odeled )odel !erforman$e Fa$tor Affe$ted
1og sp&cing o' po$er &nd 'ree syste% Po$er &nd 'ree throghpt
1i%ensions o' stor&ge nits Stor&ge &nd retriev&l ti%e
,&(&( System Layout
A syste% l&yot is si%ply the con'igr&tion pl&n 'or & syste%Es strctr&l ele%ents. <he l&yot
speci'ies $here to loc&te pieces o' e8ip%ents, &isles, rep&ir nits, %&teri&l/h&ndling syste%s,
stor&ge nits, lo&ding &nd nlo&ding doc"s, &nd so on. Si%il&r to syste% strctre, pl&cing &nd
si.ing %odel ele%ents &ccording to the l&yot speci'ied reslts in & %ore represent&tive 1?S
%odel. Stic"ing to l&yot speci'ic&tions helps c&ptre the 'lo$ p&th o' %&teri&l or entities $ithin
the syste%. !ence, 'lo$ di&gr&%s &re o'ten developed sing syste% l&yots. When designing
ne$ syste%s or e(p&nding e(isting ones, the l&yot o'ten pl&ys &n i%port&nt role in &ssessing
design &ltern&tives. ?(&%ples o' 8estions &ns$ered in & syste% l&yot inclde9 Wh&t is the
syste% strctreK Wh&t does the syste% loo" li"eK !o$ close is the p&c"&ging dep&rt%ent to the
shipping doc"K !o$ l&rge is the stor&ge &re&K
>&cility pl&nning is the topic nder $hich the l&yot o' & pl&nt or & '&cility is designed. 1ep&rt%ent
&re&s &nd &ctivity/rel&tionship ch&rts &re o'ten sed to provide & design 'or & '&cility l&yot.
;oc&tions o' dep&rt%ents, dist&nces bet$een the%, &nd interdep&rt%ent&l 'lo$ need to be
c&ptred in the 1?S %odel to provide &ccr&te syste% represent&tion.
,&(&* System Data
0e&l/$orld syste%s o'ten involve & tre%endos &%ont o' d&t& $hile 'nctioning. 1&t& collection
syste%s 4%&n&l or &to%&tic5 &re o'ten sed to collect critic&l d&t& 'or v&rios prposes, sch
&s %onitoring o' oper&tions, process control, &nd gener&ting %&n&ge%ent reports. 1?S %odels
&re d&t&/ drivenO hence, pertinent syste% d&t& shold be collected &nd sed in the %odel. J'
corse, not &ll re&l syste% d&t& &re necess&ry to bild &nd rn the 1?S %odel. 1eciding on $h&t
type o' d&t& is necess&ry 'or 1?S is highly dependent on the %odel strctre &nd the go&l o'
si%l&tion. Gener&lly spe&"ing, &ll syste% ele%ents &re de'ined sing syste% d&t&. ?(&%ples
inclde p&r&%eter settings o' %&chines, %&teri&l/h&ndling syste%s, &nd stor&ge syste%s. Sch
p&r&%eters inclde inter&rriv&l ti%es, cycle ti%es, tr&ns'er ti%es, conveying speed, ti%e to '&ilre
42<@>5, ti%e to rep&ir 42<<05, prodct %i(, de'ect &nd scr&p r&tes, &nd others. 2odel
per'or%&nce &nd reslts &re highly dependent on the 8&lity &nd &ccr&cy o' sch d&t&, b&sed
on the co%%only sed ter% gar'age,in,gar'age,out.
<hs, developing & 1?S %odel re8ires the si(/sig%& te&% to de'ine precisely the d&t& ele%ents
needed, the %ethod o' collecting sch d&t&, &nd ho$ the d&t& $ill be represented &nd sed in the
1?S %odel. Ch&pter 7 h&s shed light on the "ey topic o' inpt %odeling &nd st&tistic&l
distribtions sed in 1?S %odels. <&ble 6.2 presents the d&t& th&t need to be collected 'or
%odeling v&rios si%l&tion ele%ents.
+a3le ,&(# Data Colle$ted for 9arious DES Elements
Jpen t&ble &s spre&dsheet
Element )odeled !ertinent Simulation Data
2&chine 4;o&d, cycle, nlo&d5 ti%e, 2<@>,2<<0
Conveyor Speed, c&p&city, type, &cc%l&tion
+a3le ,&(# Data Colle$ted for 9arious DES Elements
Jpen t&ble &s spre&dsheet
Element )odeled !ertinent Simulation Data
Jper&tor W&l" speed, $or" se8ence, $&l" p&th
@''er C&p&city, discipline, inpt:otpt rles
Ato%&ted gided vehicle Speed, &cceler&tion:deceler&tion, rote
Po$er/&nd/'ree syste% Speed, dog sp&cing, ch&in length
P&rt:lo&d Attribtes o' si.e, color, 'lo$, %i(
,&(&% System Logi$
Syste% logic co%prises the rles &nd procedres th&t govern the beh&vior &nd inter&ction o'
v&rios ele%ents in & si%l&tion %odel. It de'ines the rel&tionships &%ong %odel ele%ents &nd
ho$ entities 'lo$ $ithin & syste%. <he progr&%%ing c&p&bility o' si%l&tion l&ng&ges is o'ten
tili.ed to i%ple%ent the syste% logic designed into the 1?S %odel developed. Si%il&rly, re&l/
$orld syste%s o'ten involve & set o' si%ple or co%ple( logic&l designs th&t control syste%
per'or%&nce &nd direct its beh&vior. Abstr&cting relev&nt logic into & 1?S %odel is & critic&l
%odeling t&s". It is prob&bly the %ost di''iclt %odeling ch&llenge th&t '&ces si%l&tion si(/sig%&
te&%s, especi&lly $ith li%it&tions o' so%e si%l&tion so't$&re p&c"&ges. It is $orth re%e%bering,
ho$ever, th&t co%ple( logic is & %&in driver behind the co%%on&lity o' si%l&tion %odeling in
prodction &nd bsiness &pplic&tions.
In & typic&l si%l&tion %odel, it is o'ten the c&se th&t sever&l decision points e(ist $ithin the
%odel oper&tions, sch &s splitting &nd %erging points. At these decision points, cert&in
schedling rles, roting sche%es, &nd oper&tion&l se8ences %&y need to be bilt into the 1?S
%odel to re'lect the &ct&l per'or%&nce o' the nderlying syste%. <&ble 6.3 provides e(&%ples o'
sch logic&l designs.
+a3le ,&*# Examles of )odel Logi$al Designs
Jpen t&ble &s spre&dsheet
)odel A$ti4ity Logi$al Design
P&rts &rriving &t lo&ding doc" Sorting &nd inspection sche%e
0e8esting co%ponents 2odel %i( rles
Prodcing &n order 2&chine schedling rles
2&teri&l h&ndling C&rrier roting rles
St&tistic&l process control 1ecision rles
2&chining & p&rt Se8ence o' oper&tion
>or"li't 'loor oper&tion 1riversE disp&tching rles
Stor&ge &nd retriev&l syste% 4AS:0S5 AS:0S vehicle %ove%ent rles
,&(&, System Statisti$s
Syste% st&tistics &re %e&ns o' collecting rn/ti%e in'or%&tion &nd d&t& 'ro% & syste% dring rn
ti%e &nd &ggreg&ting the% &t the end o' si%l&tion rn ti%e. 1ring rn ti%e, sch st&tistics &re
necess&ry to control the oper&tion &nd 'lo$ o' syste% &ctivities &nd ele%ents. At si%l&tion end,
these st&tistics &re collected to s%%&ri.e syste% per'or%&nce &t v&rios syste% design &nd
p&r&%eter settings. In & syste% 1?S %odel, there'ore, st&tistics &re collected &nd &cc%l&ted to
provide & s%%&ry o' reslts &t the end o' rn ti%e. Sch st&tistics &re sed to %odel re&l/ti%e
%onitoring g&ges &nd cloc"s in & re&l/ $orld syste%. @ec&se o' %odel 'le(ibility, ho$ever,
so%e st&tistics th&t &re sed in the %odel %&y not &ct&lly be in the re&l/$orld syste%. <his is
bec&se st&tistics do not &''ect %odel per'or%&nce. <here'ore, $e c&n de'ine st&tistics th&t &re
necess&ry to syste% oper&tion &nd other st&tistics th&t %&y provide se'l in'or%&tion dring rn
ti%e &nd s%%&ri.e the reslts &t the end o' rn ti%e. Appendi( A covers st&tistics collected 'ro%
si%l&tion &nd otpt &n&lyses per'or%ed sing sch st&tistics. <&ble 6.7 provides e(&%ples o'
sch st&tistics.
+a3le ,&%# Examles of model Statisti$s
Jpen t&ble &s spre&dsheet
)odel Statisti$ 9alue )easured
Jobs prodced per hor Syste% throghpt
Percent o' %&chine bsy ti%e 2&chine tili.&tion
#%ber o' nits in syste% Wor"/in/progress level
<i%e nits spend in syste% 2&n'&ctring le&d ti%e
#%ber o' de'ectives Process 8&lity
#%ber o' %&chine '&ilres 2&inten&nce pl&n
#%ber o' nits on & conveyor Conveyor tili.&tion
#%ber o' nits on & b''er @''er tili.&tion
,&* Elements Of Dis$rete E4ent Simulation
A 1?S %odel is bilt sing & set o' %odel co%ponents 4bilding bloc"s5 &nd is e(ected b&sed
on & set o' 1?S %ech&nis%s. <he n&tre &nd 'nction&lity o' these co%ponents &nd %ech&nis%s
%&y v&ry 'ro% one si%l&tion p&c"&ge to &nother. !o$ever, b&sic co%ponents o' 1?S %odels
&re o'ten de'ined sing & co%%on set o' 1?S ele%ents. <hese ele%ents $ere de'ined in Ch&pter
7 in ter%s o' syste% inpts, process 4ele%ents &nd rel&tionships5, otpts, &nd controls. !ence,
1?S ele%ents inclde syste% entities 4.5, o'ten ch&r&cteri.ed by & set o' &ttribtes 4/T5. <he
syste% st&te 4S5 is described by st&te v&ri&bles 40Rs5. <he syste% st&te ch&nges pon the
occrrence o' & set o' events 45. 1ring oper&tion, di''erent syste% &ctivities 4/5 or t&s"s &re
per'or%ed by syste% resorces 4R5. >in&lly, the %odel involves del&ys 4*5 th&t t&"e pl&ce in the
syste% &nd the logic 415 th&t governs the syste% oper&tion. <hese ele%ents &re sho$n in >igre
6.2. In this section $e discss these ele%ents &nd in the ne(t section discss "ey %ech&nis%s
sed to e(ecte 1?S %odels.
Figure ,&(# 1?S syste% ele%ents.
,&*&' System Entities
?ntities &re ite%s th&t enter & syste% &s inpts, &re processed throgh the syste% resorces &nd
&ctivities, &nd dep&rt the syste% &s otpts. As 1?S dyn&%ic obDects, entities &re %odel/
tr&ce&ble ele%ents th&t &re o'ten o' interest to syste% designers, %&n&gers, &nd si(/sig%&
oper&tives sch &s green belts, bl&c" belts, &nd %&ster bl&c" belts. ?(&%ples inclde p&rts or
prodcts in %&n'&ctring, csto%ers in b&n"ing, c&lls in & csto%er/service center, p&tients in
he&lth syste%s, letters &nd p&c"&ges in post&l services, doc%ents in &n o''ice, insr&nce
policies in &n insr&nce co%p&ny, d&t& in &n in'or%&tion syste%, &nd so on.
In 1?S, entities &re ch&r&cteri.ed by &ttribtes sch &s price, type, cl&ss, color, sh&pe, I1
n%ber, origin, destin&tion, priority, de d&te, &nd so on. Speci'ic v&les o' sch &ttribtes &re
tied to entities &nd c&n di''er 'ro% one entity to &nother. !ence, &ttribtes c&n be considered &s
local v&ri&bles th&t &re tied to individ&l entities. <hese &ttribtes c&n be sed &t di''erent
loc&tions &nd inst&nces $ithin the 1?S %odel to %&"e v&rios decisions 'or directing the 'lo$ o'
entities, &ssigning the% to stor&ge loc&tions, &ctiv&ting resorces, &nd so on.
Also, the type o' entity is the b&sis 'or cl&ssi'ying 1?S syste%s bet$een discrete &nd continos.
1iscrete entities &re %odeled $ith discrete syste%s. Continos entities sch &s 'lo$ o' bl"
%&teri&ls, 'lids, &nd g&ses &re %odeled $ith continos syste%s.As %entioned e&rlier, or 'ocs
in this boo" is on discrete entities since they represent the %&Dority o' tr&ns&ction/b&sed syste%s
in both %&n'&ctring &nd service indstries.
,&*&( System State
<he syste% st&te is & description o' syste% st&ts &t &ny point in ti%e dring & si%l&tion. It
describes the condition o' e&ch syste% co%ponent in the 1?S %odel. As sho$n in >igre 6.2,
these ele%ents inclde syste% inpts 4I5, process 4P5, otpts 4O5, &nd controls 4#5. !ence, &t
&ny point in ti%e, the syste% st&te de'ines the st&te o' syste% inpts 4i.e., types, &%ont, %i(,
speci'ic&tions, &rriv&l process, sorce, &ttribtes5. It &lso de'ines the syste% process in ter%s o'
type o' &ctivities 4/5, n%ber o' &ctive resorces 4R5, n%ber o' nits in the 'lo$, tili.&tion o'
resorces, ti%e in st&te, del&y ti%e, ti%e in syste%, &nd so on. Si%il&rly, & syste% st&te de'ines
the st&te o' %odel otpts 4i.e., types, &%ont, %i(, speci'ic&tions, dep&rtre process,
destin&tion, &ttribtes, v&ri&bility5. <&ble 6.6 incldes e(&%ples o' syste% st&tes th&t typic&lly
t&"e pl&ce in di''erent syste% ele%ents.
+a3le ,&,# examles of states of different model Elements
Jpen t&ble &s spre&dsheet
)odel Element System State
2&chine @sy, do$n, idle, bloc"ed
+a3le ,&,# examles of states of different model Elements
Jpen t&ble &s spre&dsheet
)odel Element System State
@''er ?%pty, 'll, h&l'/'ll
Conveyor ?%pty, 'll, bro"en, bloc"ed, st&rved
;&bor Idle bsy, $&l"ing
Lehicle 2oving, stopped, bro"en, p&r"ing
1?S records ch&nges in & syste% st&te &s it evolves over ti%e &t & discrete point in ti%e to
provide & represent&tion o' syste% beh&vior &nd to collect st&tistics &nd per'or%&nce %e&sres
th&t &re essenti&l to syste% design &nd &n&lysis. Syste% st&te v&ri&bles &re sed to 8&nti'y the
description o' & syste% st&te.
,&*&* State 9aria3les
1?S %odels inclde & collection o' v&ri&bles th&t describe the syste% st&te &t &ny speci'ic point
in ti%e. Sch v&ri&bles cont&in the in'or%&tion needed to describe & %odel co%ponent st&ts &nd
%e&sre its per'or%&nce. ?(&%ples inclde the n%ber o' nits in the syste%, the percent&ge o'
e&ch resorce st&ts 4i.e., Q idle, Q bsy, Q bro"en, Q bloc"ed5, &nd the n%ber o' bsy or idle
oper&tors.
In &ddition to the over&ll syste%/level v&ri&bles, %odel v&ri&bles inclde inpt '&ctors 4&), &2, . . . ,
&n5. <hey represent & set o' independent v&ri&bles $hose ch&nged v&les &''ect syste%
beh&vior, &nd di''erent settings o' sch '&ctors o'ten le&d to di''erent sets o' %odel otco%es.
?(&%ples inclde inter/ &rriv&l ti%es, n%ber o' oper&tors &nd resorces, service ti%e, cycle
ti%e, c&p&city o' b''ers, &nd speeds o' conveyors.
2odel v&ri&bles &lso inclde syste% response 4otpt5 v&ri&bles 4%), %2, . . . , %n5, $hich
represent dependent %e&sres o' syste% per'or%&nce. ?(&%ples inclde syste% throghpt,
&ver&ge tili.&tion o' resorces, &nd %&n'&ctring le&d ti%e. >igre 6.3 is & sche%&tic
represent&tion o' st&te v&ri&bles.
Figure ,&*# Syste% st&te v&ri&bles.
,&*&% System E4ents
An event is &n inst&nt&neos occrrence th&t ch&nges the syste% st&te. As discssed e&rlier, the
syste% st&te is the description o' syste% st&ts &t &ny ti%e, $hich is de'ined by & set o' st&te
v&ri&bles. <he event is the "ey ele%ent in 1?S %odels since the %odels &re ch&r&cteri.ed by
being event/driven. -pd&ting the syste% st&te, collecting syste% st&tistics, &nd &dv&ncing the
si%l&tion cloc" t&"e pl&ce &t event occrrence. <he set o' events 4), 2, 3, . . . , n5 th&t occr
&t cert&in corresponding ti%es 4T), T2, T3, . . . , <n5 &re stored chronologic&lly in &n event list
4discssed l&ter in 1?S %ech&nis%s5. Syste% st&tes 4S), S2, S3, . . . , Sn5 &re ch&nged b&sed on
the events &nd their i%plic&tionsO hence, %odel beh&vior is re'erred to &s event/driven. >igre 6.7
sho$s ho$ & syste% st&te is pd&ted &t event occrrences.
Figure ,&%# ?vent/driven syste% st&te.
?vent occrrence in & 1?S %odel c&n be the &rriv&l o' &n entity, the st&rt o' & co''ee bre&", the
end o' & shi't, the '&ilre o' & resorce, & ch&nge in b&tch si.e, the st&rt o' & ne$ prodction
schedle, the dep&rtre o' &n entity, &nd so on. Since 1?S %odel ele%ents &re interrel&ted &nd
1?S environ%ents &re dyn&%ic, the occrrence o' sch events o'ten le&ds & series o' ch&nges to
the syste% st&te. >or e(&%ple, the &rriv&l o' & csto%er &t & b&n" incre&ses the $&iting line i' the
b&n" teller is bsy, or ch&nges the teller st&ts 'ro% idle to bsy i' & teller is &v&il&ble. Si%il&rly,
$hen the csto%er dep&rts the b&n", the server is ch&nged b&c" to idle, &nother csto%er is
re8ested 'ro% the $&iting line, &nd the n%ber o' csto%ers served is incre&sed. !ence, the
st&te v&ri&bles &''ected &re pd&ted, relev&nt st&tistics &re &cc%l&ted, &nd the si%l&tion cloc"
is &dv&nced to the ne(t event in the event list.
,&*&, System A$ti4ities
An &ctivity is & t&s" per'or%ed in & %odel th&t h&s & speci'ied ti%e dr&tion. Activities &re
deter%ined si%ply by est&blishing & se8ence 'or the oper&tions needed to process &n entity.
?(&%ples o' sch oper&tions inclde receiving, directing, tr&ns'erring, cle&ning, %&chining,
p&c"&ging, &nd shipping. Sch &ctivities either process the entity 4v&le/&dded5 directly, sch &s
ctting &nd serving, or indirectly, sch &s %&teri&l h&ndling, inspection, &nd stor&ge &ctivities
4non/v&le/&dded5.
A process %&p o'ten incldes & se8ence o' &ll &ctivities or oper&tions re8ired to process &n
entity, &long $ith speci'ic&tions &nd the cl&ssi'ic&tion o' di''erent types o' oper&tions. A process
ch&rt o'ten cl&ssi'ies oper&tions into process 4& circle5, tr&nsport 4&n &rro$5, stor&ge 4& tri&ngle5,
del&y 415, &nd inspection 4& s8&re5, &s sho$n in <&ble 6.6. Si%il&rly, &ctivities in & 1?S %odel
c&n be cl&ssi'ied to provide & better nderst&nding o' the process 'lo$ &nd & deeper "no$ledge
o' process oper&tions.
+a3le ,&-# A$ti4ities in a !ro$ess Oerations Chart
Jpen t&ble &s spre&dsheet
Sym3ol !ro$ess )eaning Examle
Processing oper&tion 1rilling oper&tion
<r&nsporting oper&tion >or"li't tr&ns'ers & nit lo&d to stor&ge
Stor&ge oper&tion >inished goods &re stored be'ore
shipping
1el&y oper&tion Wor"/in/process nits &re del&yed be'ore
'in&l &sse%bly
+a3le ,&-# A$ti4ities in a !ro$ess Oerations Chart
Jpen t&ble &s spre&dsheet
Sym3ol !ro$ess )eaning Examle
Inspection oper&tion Jne o' every )00 nits is inspected &t &
8&lity control st&tion
Syste% &ctivities c&n be &lso cl&ssi'ied &s v&le/&dded or non/v&le/&dded9
). 0alue,added 4LA5 acti-ities. L&le is &dded throgh &ctivities th&t tr&ns'or% the
ch&r&cteristics o' &n entity 'ro% one 'or% to &nother.L&le is de'ined by the csto%er. @y
%&"ing ch&nges to entities, sch &ctivities incre&se their v&les. !ence, the price o' & ton
o' rein'orce%ent steel is %ch higher th&n the price o' & ton o' steel billet. Steel billets &re
he&ted, 'or%ed, 8enched, cooled, &nd ct be'ore beco%ing rein'orce%ent steel. Sch
oper&tions gr&d&lly incre&se the v&le o' steel entities.
2. .on,-alue,added 4#LA5 acti-ities. 2&ny oper&tions per'or%ed on entities %&y not &dd
v&le to the% bt they &re still needed to co%plete the process. ?(&%ples inclde
tr&nsporting &nd tr&ns'erring oper&tions, storing &nd del&ying %&teri&ls, &nd 8&lity control
inspections. <he re&der is encor&ged to revisit Ch&pter 2 'or the le&n si(/sig%&
perspectives &bot #LAs.
<he ti%e dr&tion 'or syste% &ctivities is speci'ied in three $&ys, depending on the n&tre o' the
&ctivity9
). Fi2ed time duration. <i%e &ssigned to &n &ctivity h&s & 'i(ed v&le &nd possesses no
v&ri&bility. <ypic&l e(&%ples inclde 'i(ed cycle ti%es in &to%&tic oper&tions sch &s
C#C %&chining, pl&nned stopp&ge ti%es, &nd ti%ed inde(ing oper&tions.
2. Pro'a'ilistic time duration. <he ti%e &ssigned in this c&se incorpor&tes r&ndo%ness &nd
v&ri&bilityO hence, the &ctivity ti%e ch&nges 'ro% one entity to &nother. S&%pling 'ro%
theoretic&l or e%piric&l st&tistic&l distribtions is o'ten sed to represent &ctivity ti%e
dr&tion.
3. Formula,'ased time duration. In this c&se the &ctivity ti%e is c&lcl&ted sing &n
e(pression o' cert&in syste% v&ri&bles. >or e(&%ple, lo&ding ti%e is deter%ined b&sed on
the n%ber o' p&rts lo&ded, $&l"ing ti%e is deter%ined &s & 'nction o' lo&d $eight, &nd
%&chine cycle ti%e is & 'nction o' ctting p&r&%eters.
,&*&- System Resour$es
A syste% resorce represents the tool or %e&n by $hich %odel &ctivities &re c&rried ot.
?(&%ples inclde pieces o' e8ip%ent, oper&tors, personnel, physici&ns, rep&irpersons,
%&chines, speci&li.ed tools, &nd other %e&ns th&t '&cilit&te the processing o' entities. 0esorce
&lloc&tion &nd schedling sche%es &re o'ten i%ple%ented to provide best t&s" &ssign%ents to
resorces. <&ble 6.* incldes e(&%ples o' syste% resorces in %&n'&ctring &nd service
&pplic&tions.
+a3le ,&.# Examles of System Resour$es
Jpen t&ble &s spre&dsheet
)anufa$turing System Ser4i$e System
2&chines &nd %&chine centers Physici&ns
Jper&tors &nd gener&l l&bor @&n" tellers
Inspectors &nd 8&lity controllers !ospit&l beds
0ep&irpersons &nd %&inten&nce cre$s 1rivers
+a3le ,&.# Examles of System Resour$es
Jpen t&ble &s spre&dsheet
)anufa$turing System Ser4i$e System
Asse%bly st&tions &nd tools 1rive/throgh $indo$s
Pey '&ctors th&t &''ect the per'or%&nce o' resorces inclde c&p&city, speed, &nd reli&bility.
C&p&city &''ects resorce tili.&tion, $hich %e&sres the percent&ge o' resorce se. Since
resorces cons%e c&pit&l, syste% designers &nd %&n&gers pre'er to incre&se the tili.&tion o'
resorces throgh better schedling &nd resorce &lloc&tion. 0esorce speed deter%ines the
prodctivity o' the resorce, o'ten %e&sred &s throghpt or yield. Si%il&rly, resorce
throghpt is & l&rger/the/better %e&sre. ?li%in&ting $&ste in ti%e &nd ine''iciencies in
oper&tion incre&ses throghpt. >in&lly, resorce reli&bility deter%ines the percent&ge o'
resorce pti%e 4&v&il&bility5. It is &l$&ys re8ired to incre&se the pti%e percent&ge o'
resorces throgh better %&inten&nce &nd $or"lo&d b&l&ncing. <&ble 6.+ s%%&ri.es the three
resorce '&ctors9
+a3le ,&/# Fa$tors Affe$ting System Resour$es
Jpen t&ble &s spre&dsheet
Resour$e Fa$tor !erforman$e
)easure
:nit )etri$ Examle
C&p&city -tili.&tion Percent bsy 22 is +6Q tili.ed
Speed <hroghpt -nits prodced per
hor 4-P!5
22 prodces 60
-P!
0eli&bility -pti%e 2e&n ti%e v&le
bet$een
22 h&s & 2<@>
'&ilres o' 200 hors
). Resource capacity9 & '&ctor th&t is o'ten %e&sred by ho$ %&ny entities &re &ble to
&ccess or enter & resorce. 2ost resorces, sch &s %&chines, b&n" tellers, &nd
physici&ns, o'ten tre&t one entity &t & ti%e. So%e, ho$ever, per'or% b&tch processing o'
identic&l or di''erent entities, sch &s 'illing %&chines, &sse%bly st&tions, testing centers,
&nd grop/b&sed &ctivities. C&p&city li%it&tions o'ten &''ect the tili.&tion o' resorces,
$here syste% designers o'ten strive to stri"e & b&l&nce bet$een %e&sres. <here'ore,
2. Resource speed9 & '&ctor th&t deter%ines the throghpt or yield o' & resorce. >&st
resorces o'ten rn $ith & short processing ti%e &nd reslt in processing %ore entities in
the ti%e nit. ?(&%ples inclde the speed o' & tr&ns'er line, the cycle ti%e o' & %&chining
center, the service ti%e &t & b&n" teller, &nd the di&gnostic ti%e &t & clinic. -nits prodced
per hor 4-P!5 or per shi't 4-PS5 &re co%%on throghpt %e&sres in %&n'&ctring
syste%s. Cycle ti%e is o'ten the ter% th&t is sed to indic&te the speed o' %&chines &nd
resorces in gener&l. 2&chine throghpt is there'ore, the reciproc&l o' cycle ti%e. <h&t is,
>or e(&%ple, & %&chine $ith & cycle ti%e o' 60 seconds prodces ):60 nit per second or
) nit per %inte. <&"t ti%e is o'ten sed to indic&te the speed o' &to%&tic prodction
lines.
3. Resource relia'ility3 & resorce '&ctor th&t deter%ines the resorce pti%e or &v&il&bility.
It is o'ten %e&sred in ter%s o' %e&n ti%e bet$een '&ilres 42<@>5, $here & resorce
'&ilre is e(pected to occr &t 2<@> ti%e nits. 0ep&ir ti%e, &'ter & '&ilre occrs, is
%e&sred by %e&n ti%e to rep&ir 42<<05. <he resorce pti%e percent&ge is deter%ined
by dividing 2<@> by &v&il&ble ti%e 4both 2<@> &nd 2<<059
,&*&. System Delay
A syste% del&y is &n &ctivity th&t t&"es pl&ce $ithin the syste% bt does not h&ve & speci'ied ti%e
dr&tion. <he dr&tion is deter%ined dring rn ti%e b&sed on dyn&%ic &nd logic&l inter&ctions
&%ong syste% ele%ents. ?(&%ples inclde csto%er $&iting ti%e, del&ys in nit se8encing, &nd
del&ys c&sed by logic&l design. 2e&sring del&ys by &cc%l&ting the ti%e o' del&y
occrrences is the principle &dv&nt&ge o' 1?S %odels. St&tistics i%port&nt to decision %&"ers
c&n be collected sing this c&p&bility9 'or e(&%ple, the &ver&ge $&iting ti%e 'or b&n" csto%ersO
%&n'&ctring le&d ti%eO &nd ti%e sp&n 'ro% the st&rt to the end o' p&rt %&n'&ctring, inclding
del&ys.
,&*&/ System Logi$
Syste% logic controls the per'or%&nce o' &ctivities &nd dict&tes the ti%e, loc&tion, &nd %ethod o'
their e(ection. 1?S %odels rn by e(ecting logic&l designs sch &s rles 'or resorces
&lloc&tion, p&rts se8encing, 'lo$ roting, t&s" prioriti.&tion, &nd $or" schedling. 0ote sheets,
$or" schedles, prodction pl&ns, &nd $or" instrctions &re e(&%ples o' %ethods sed to
i%ple%ent the syste% logic&l design. <&ble 6., s%%&ri.es e(&%ples o' syste% logic.
+a3le ,&0# Examles of System Logi$
Jpen t&ble &s spre&dsheet
Logi$al Design "mlementation )ethod Examle
2&teri&l 'lo$ 0ote sheet 2&chining se8ence
Wor"'orce schedling Wor" schedle #rsing shi'ts in hospit&ls
Prodct/%i( schedling Prodction pl&n Prodction lot si.e
<&s" prioriti.ing Shop 'loor controls ?(pedited processing
St&nd&rd oper&tions Wor" instrctions Prodct &sse%bly
Si%l&tion p&c"&ges o'ten provide bilt/in roting &nd disp&tching rles 'or si%l&tion entities.
<hey &lso provide &n ?nglish/li"e synt&( to progr&% the %odel logic. Si%l&tion p&c"&ges o'ten
%&"e se o' indstri&l &nd bsiness ter%inology &s synt&(9 'or e(&%ple, process, p&rt, l&bor,
%&chine, conveyor, c&rrier, &nd so on. !o$ever, si%l&tion so't$&re tools o'ten v&ry in the
c&p&bility o' their logic&l progr&%%ing pl&t'or%. While so%e tools provide open editors 'or $riting
co%plic&ted logic in & C/li"e or L@/li"e progr&%%ing strctre, others provide li%ited
progr&%%ing c&p&bility 'or %&"ing the %odel bilding e&sier &nd '&ster.
;i"e &ny other progr&%%ing l&ng&ge, $riting the logic in si%l&tion re8ires developing &
'lo$ch&rt o' the logic&l design &nd tr&nsl&ting the logic&l design into code sing the so't$&re
synt&(. Since si%l&tion logic is typic&lly developed to %i%ic re&l/$orld oper&tion&l logic, &
thorogh &nd pr&ctic&l nderst&nding o' the nderlying prodction or bsiness process is &n
essenti&l ingredient 'or developing represent&tive si%l&tion logic.
,&% DES )e$hanisms
As discssed e&rlier, 1?S %odels &re dyn&%ic, event/driven, discrete in ti%e, stoch&stic
4r&ndo%i.ed &nd prob&bilistic5, &nd co%pter/&ni%&ted. Sch ch&r&cteristics &re est&blished in
the 1?S %odel b&sed on cert&in po$er'l %ech&nis%s. 2&in 1?S %ech&nis%s inclde the
cre&tion &nd pd&ting o' &n events list, the ti%e/&dv&nce%ent %ech&nis%, the c&p&bility o'
s&%pling 'ro% prob&bility distribtions $ith r&ndo% n%ber gener&tion, the c&p&bility o'
&cc%l&ting st&tistics over rn ti%e, &nd the po$er o' t$o/ or three/di%ension&l dyn&%ic
gr&phic&l represent&tion $ith &ni%&tion %ech&nis%.
<hese %ech&nis%s represent the b&c"bone o' 1?S 'nction&lity in si%l&tion so't$&re tools
since they &re critic&l to cre&ting oper&tion&l %odels. Althogh si%l&tion so't$&re tools v&ry in
%ethods &nd &lgorith%s to i%ple%ent these %ech&nis%s, the 1?S 'nction&lity o'ten incldes
the cre&tion o' &n event list, &dv&ncing the si%l&tion cloc" 4event/driven &dv&nce%ent5, pd&ting
the event list, pd&ting pertinent st&tistics, &nd chec"ing 'or ter%in&tion. >igre 6.6 is sho$s &
'lo$ch&rt o' 1?S 'nction&lity.
Figure ,&,# 1?S 'nction&lity.
?&ch 1?S %ech&nis% involves %&ny theoretic&l det&ils, &nd in this section $e discss the "ey
ch&r&cteristics &nd %ethods sed in these %ech&nis%s.
,&%&' Dis$rete E4ent )e$hanism
?vents in & 1?S &re discrete since they t&"e pl&ce &t discrete points in ti%e. 1?S 'nction&lity is,
there'ore, b&sed on cre&ting &n event list &nd e(ecting the events o' the list chronologic&lly.
Sch 'nction&lity is b&sed on & discrete event &nd cloc"/&dv&nce%ent %ech&nis%. <he discrete
event %ech&nis% is the %ost distinctive 'e&tre o' 1?S si%l&tion %odels. As discssed e&rlier,
&n e-ent is de'ined &s &n occrrence, & sit&tion, or & condition th&t reslts in ch&nging the state
o' the syste% %odel inst&nt&neosly. <he st&te o' & syste% is represented by & collection o' st&te
v&ri&bles th&t describe the syste% st&ts.
Arriv&l &nd dep&rtre o' entities sch &s p&rts &nd csto%ers &re events th&t ch&nge the st&te o'
& prodction syste% or & service st&tion. In'or%&tion &bot event types &nd their schedled
occrrence ti%es &re stored in &n event list 4?;5. An event list co%prises & set o' events 4?5 &nd
eventCti%e 4<5 co%bin&tion ). <h&t c&n be e(pressed &s 'ollo$s9
?; = M4), T)5, 42, T25, 43, T35,. . . , 4n, Tn5N
At e&ch event occrrence, t$o &ctions t&"e pl&ce in the %odel9 <he ?; is pd&ted in ter%s o'
content &nd ti%e, &nd the st&tistics collected &re pd&ted. -pon the occrrence o' &n event, the
event e(ected $ill be re%oved 'ro% the list &nd the ne(t %ost i%%inent event $ill top the list.
Jther events %&y enter or le&ve the list &ccordingly. -pd&ting &n event list incldes t$o %&in
oper&tions 4>igre 6.659
Figure ,&-# ?vent list oper&tions.
). -ent remo-al. -pon the occrrence o' &n event, the list %&y be pd&ted by re%oving
one or %ore events 'ro% the list, reslting in ch&nging the chronologic&l order o' event
e(ection. So%e events %&y be deleted 'ro% the list be'ore their e(ection. An event %&y
be deleted 'or %&ny re&sons9 'or e(&%ple, $hen the occrrence o' one event precldes
the occrrence o' &nother. ?vent re%ov&l c&n t&"e pl&ce in t$o loc&tions in &n eventlist9
&. From the top of the 1. When &n event is re%oved 'ro% the top o' &n ?;, it is
done or e(ected. >or e(&%ple, event ) in >igre 6.6 $&s processedO hence the
event is re%oved 'ro% the top o' ?;) $hen pd&ting the list to beco%e ?;2.
b. From any other location 4ithin the 1. When &n event is re%oved 'ro% &ny other
loc&tion in the ?; other then the top o' the list, it is c&nceled. >or e(&%ple, event 7
in >igre 6.6 $&s c&nceledO hence the event is re%oved 'ro% ?;) &nd did not sho$
p in ?;2.
2. -ent addition. -pon the occrrence o' &n event, the list %&y be pd&ted by &dding one
or %ore events to the list, reslting in ch&nging the chronologic&l order o' event e(ection.
?vent &ddition c&n t&"e pl&ce in t$o loc&tions in &n ?;9
&. To the top of the 1$ When &n event is &dded to the top o' the ?;, it is
considered &s the %ost i%%inent event to t&"e pl&ce. >or e(&%ple, event * in
>igre 6.6 $&s &dded to the top o' ?;2 &nd $ill be processed 'irst. ?* $&s not &
%e%ber o' ?;) $hen pd&ting the list to beco%e ?;2.
b. To any other location 4ithin the 1$ When &n event is &dded to &ny loc&tion in &n
?; other then the top o' the list, it is Dst being &dded &s & 'tre event. >or
e(&%ple, event 6 in >igre 6.6 $&s &dded to ?;2 &nd $ill be processed right &'ter
2.
<hs, $ith the discrete event %ech&nis%, $e vie$ & syste% &s progressing throgh ti%e 'ro%
one event to &nother r&ther th&n ch&nging continosly. As %entioned e&rlier, %&ny re&l/$orld
syste%s 4e.g., pl&nts, b&n"s, hospit&ls5 oper&te in & discrete %&nner 4tr&ns&ction/ or event/
b&sed5. Since these syste%s o'ten involve $&iting lines, & si%ple discrete event %ech&nis% is
o'ten %odeled sing 8eing %odels. 1?S %odels c&n be vie$ed &s 8eing net$or"s th&t %&y
or %&y not be &%en&ble to 8eing theory. 1iscrete events occr in the si%l&tion %odel si%il&r
to the $&y they occr in the 8eing syste% 4&rriv&l &nd dep&rtre o' events5. >or inst&nce, &
csto%er Doins & 8ee &t & discrete inst&nt o' ti%e, &nd &t & l&ter discrete inst&nt the csto%er
le&ves the b&n". <i%e is &cc%l&ted pon the occrrence o' events &t discrete points in ti%e.
<he csto%er is either in or ot o' the 8ee. <his vie$ reslts in & co%pt&tion&lly e''icient $&y
o' representing ti%e. <he &bility to represent ti%e in &n event/driven %&nner is the gre&test
strength o' 1?S since it c&ptres the dyn&%ic beh&vior o' re&l/$orld prodction &nd bsiness
syste%s.
,&%&( +ime-Ad4an$ement )e$hanism
<he ti%e &ssoci&ted $ith the discrete events 4T), T2, T3, . . . , Tn5 in & si%l&tion %odel is
%&int&ined sing & simulation cloc5 ti%e v&ri&ble. <his v&ri&ble is pd&ted throgh the ne2t,e-ent
time,ad-ancement mechanism, $hich &dv&nces the si%l&tion cloc" to the ti%e o' the %ost
i%%inent event in the event list. >or e(&%ple, >igre 6.* sho$s &n event list o' )0 events 4), 2,
3, . . . , )05 ordered chronologic&lly &s T), T2, T3, . . . , T)0. In 1?S, the ti%e periods bet$een
events 4e.g., ) &nd 25 &re s"ipped $hen e(ecting the %odel, reslting in & compressed
si%l&tion ti%e. !ence, the tot&l ti%e re8ired to process the )0 events in the 1?S co%pter
%odel is %ch shorter th&n the &ct&l cloc" ti%e.
Figure ,&.# <i%e &dv&nce%ent &nd co%pression in 1?S.
<he ti%e/&dv&nce%ent %ech&nis% si%ply st&tes th&t i' no event is occrring in & ti%e sp&n,
there is no need to observe the %odel &nd pd&te st&tistics, so the ti%e is si%ply s"ipped to the
ne(t event schedled in the ?;. <his event/driven ti%e/&dv&nce%ent process contines ntil
so%e speci'ied stopping condition is s&tis'ied. >or e(&%ple, i' & b&n" teller st&rts serving &
csto%er in & b&n", there is no need to tr&c" every second dring the service ti%e. Inste&d, the
cloc" is &dv&nced to the ne(t event, $hich %&y be the end o' the service ti%e i' no other event is
e(pected to t&"e pl&ce dring the service ti%e.
,&%&* Random Samling )e$hanism
<he stoch&stic n&tre o' si%l&tion %odels is est&blished by %e&ns o' s&%pling 'ro% prob&bility
distribtions sing r&ndo% gener&tion techni8es. Stochastic, $hich %e&ns r&ndo%, is
incorpor&ted into the %odel sing %&the%&tic&l %ethods to gener&te stre&%s o' psedor&ndo%
n%bers. A r&ndo% n%ber gener&tion 40#G5 %ech&nis% &llo$s 'or c&ptring the r&ndo%
v&ri&tions in re&l/$orld syste%s in 1?S %odels. <he &bility to &llo$ 'or r&ndo%ness is one o' the
gre&t strengths o' 1?S.
>ro% & pr&ctic&l point o' vie$, r&ndo% n%bers &re b&sic ingredients in the si%l&tion %odels o'
%ost re&l/$orld syste%s. 2&chine cycle ti%es, csto%er service ti%es, e8ip%ent '&ilres, &nd
8&lity control tests &re e(&%ples o' r&ndo%ness ele%ents in 1?S %odels. 0&ndo% %odel d&t&
inpts o'ten le&d r&ndo% %odel otpts. <hs, si%l&tion otco%es, representing re&l/$orld
syste%s, &re o'ten stoch&stic in n&tre &nd le&d to inconsistent per'or%&nce levels.
<he prob&bilistic n&tre o' the ti%e period th&t sep&r&tes sccessive events $hen e(ecting &
1?S %odel represents the %erit o' r&ndo%ness in si%l&tion %odels. ?vents 4e.g., csto%er
&rriv&l, %&chine '&ilre, prodct dep&rtre5 c&n occr &t &ny point in ti%e, reslting in & stoch&stic
si%l&tion environ%ent. <o gener&te sccessive r&ndo% ti%e s&%ples 4T = T), T2, . . .5 bet$een
events, sampling 'ro% prob&bility distribtions is sed. !ence, %ost si%l&tion l&ng&ges, &s $ell
&s generic progr&%%ing l&ng&ges, inclde &n 0#G engine to gener&te event ti%es &nd other
r&ndo% v&ri&bles %odeled. >or e(&%ple, inter&rriv&l ti%es o' cert&in entities to & syste% &re
gener&ted r&ndo%ly by s&%pling 'ro% & continos e(ponenti&l distribtion $hile the n%ber o'
entities &rriving per nit ti%e is r&ndo%ly gener&ted 'ro% & discrete Poisson distribtion. 2odeling
r&ndo%ness in discrete event si%l&tion re8ires 0#G &nd & %ethod 'or selecting d&t& points
r&ndo%ly 'ro% st&tistic&l distribtions. A line&r congrenti&l gener&tor 4;CG5 is sed 'or 0#G,
&nd the inverse %ethod is sed 'or s&%pling 'ro% st&tistic&l distribtions.
RNG with LCG <he prpose o' &n 0#G %&chine in 1?S is to prodce & 'lo$ o' n%bers 'ro% &
continos ni'or% distribtion bet$een 0 &nd ). Sch n%bers represent r&ndo% &nd
independent observ&tions o' & cert&in r&ndo% '&ctor th&t is ni'or%ly distribted bec&se o' the
e8&l prob&bility o' the ni'or% r&ndo% v&ri&ble. <hese r&ndo% n%bers c&n &lso be sed to
s&%ple 'ro% prob&bility distribtions other th&n & ni'or% distribtion.
In &ddition to the ;CG %ethod, co%%on 0#G techni8es inclde co%bined line&r congrenti&l
gener&tors. ;CG is, ho$ever, the %ost co%%on &rith%etic oper&tion 'or gener&ting ni'or% 40,)5
r&ndo% n%bers. <he r&ndo%ness o' s&%pling is &l%ost g&r&nteed sing & congruential
method. ?&ch r&ndo% n%ber gener&ted sing this %ethod $ill be & deci%&l n%ber bet$een 0
&nd ). Given p&r&%eters 60, a, c, &nd m, & psedor&ndo% n%ber Ri c&n be gener&ted 'ro% the
'ollo$ing 'or%l&9
$here 6i v&les &re integers bet$een 0 &nd m / ), bt v&les o' the r&ndo% n%bers gener&ted
th&t &re sed in si%l&tion &re deci%&l n%bers bet$een 0 &nd ).<he oper&tion %od4m5 %e&ns
to divide 4aRi/) S c5 by m &nd retrn the re%&inder o' the division &s the ne(t 6i$ <he initi&l v&le
60 is re'erred to &s the seed o' the r&ndo% gener&tor. <he v&les o' a, c, &nd m const&nts &re
selected properly to prodce & good 'lo$ o' r&ndo% n%bers. >or e(&%ple, i' m T 20, a T )0, c T
6, &nd 60 T 60, the recrsion gener&ting o' Ri v&les is Ri T 4)0Ri/) S 65 %od4205, $hich reslts in
the 'ollo$ing v&les9
60 T 60
6) T H)04605 S 6I %od4205 T 606 %od4205 T 6 &nd R) T 6:20 T 0.26
62 T H)04605 S 6I %od4205 T 66 %od4205 T )6 &nd R2 T )6:20 T 0.*6
.
.
.
An 0#G %ech&nis% gener&tes n%bers th&t &re not trly r&ndo% bec&se they c&n be
gener&ted in &dv&nce &nd bec&se o' the recrsive n&tre o' ;CG, $here & si%il&r se8ence o'
r&ndo% n%bers c&n be repe&ted &g&in &nd &g&in. >or this re&son, 0#G %ethods &re o'ten
c&lled pseudo,R.!. <&bles o' re&dy/to/se r&ndo% n%bers &re &v&il&ble, especi&lly 'or 2onte
C&rlo si%l&tions, $here r&ndo% s&%pling is sed to esti%&te cert&in e(peri%ent&l otpt. Also,
%ost si%l&tion so't$&re p&c"&ges h&ve the c&p&bility o' &to%&tic r&ndo% n%ber gener&tion.
Appendi( @ presents & t&ble o' r&ndo% n%bers.
ampling with the !n"erse Method -sing &n 0#G $ith ni'or%40,)5 v&les, sccessive r&ndo%
s&%ples c&n be gener&ted 'ro% prob&bility distribtions sing three %ethods9
). In-erse method3 sed 'or s&%pling 'ro% e(ponenti&l, ni'or%, Weibll, &nd tri&ngl&r
prob&bility distribtions &s $ell &s e%piric&l distribtions.
2. #on-olution method3 sed 'or s&%pling 'ro% ?rl&ng, Poisson, nor%&l, &nd bino%i&l
distribtions.
3. /cceptance"re7ection techni8ue3 sed 'or s&%pling 'ro% bet& &nd g&%%& distribtions.
<he inverse %ethod involves prob&bility distribtions $ith & closed/'or% c%l&tive density
'nction 4C1>5, sch &s the e(ponenti&l &nd ni'or% distribtions. <he %ethod consists o' t$o
steps9 r&ndo% n%ber gener&tion o' R &nd co%pting the r&ndo% v&ri&ble 425 'ro% the C1> th&t
corresponds to R. Since the R v&les &re &ll bet$een 0 &nd ), the C1> v&les, or f425 = P4y 25
&re &lso bet$een 0 &nd ), $here 0 f425 ). <he v&le o' 2 is co%pted by deter%ining the
inverse o' C1> &t R or 2 = F
)
4R5. <he prob&bility density 'nction 4P1>5 o' the e(ponenti&l
distribtion is
f(2) T e
/2
$here 2 9 0
<o deter%ine & r&ndo% s&%ple 425 'ro% f425, $e 'irst deter%ine the C1> o' the e(ponenti&l
distribtion by integr&ting f425 'ro% 0 to 2, $hich reslts in
f(2) T ) / e
/2
$here 2 9 0
<he r&ndo% s&%ple is then deter%ined &s 2 = F
)
4R5, $here R is gener&ted $ith &n 0#G. <his
reslts in the 'ollo$ing9
>or e(&%ple, 'ive csto%ers 4 = 65 enter & grocery store e&ch hor, &nd 'or R = 0.*6, the ti%e
period ntil the ne(t csto%er &rriv&l is t = 4):65 ln 4) 0.*65 = 0.2** hor or )6.62 %intes.
<he convoltion %ethod e(presses the r&ndo% s&%ple &s & st&tistic&l s% o' other e&sy/to/
s&%ple r&ndo% v&ri&bles. ?(&%ples inclde the prob&bility distribtions o' & s% o' t$o or %ore
independent r&ndo% v&ri&bles, sch &s Poisson &nd ?rl&ng, $hose s&%ple c&n be obt&ined 'ro%
the e(ponenti&l distribtion s&%ple. >or e(&%ple, the m/?rl&ng r&ndo% v&ri&ble is de'ined &s the
st&tistic&l s% o' m independent &nd identic&lly distribted e(ponenti&l r&ndo% v&ri&bles. !ence,
the m/?rl&ng s&%ple is co%pted &s
S&%pling 'ro% & nor%&l distribtion c&n &lso be &chieved $ith convoltion %ethods, since &s the
centr&l li%it theore% st&tes, the s% o' n independent &nd identic&lly distribted r&ndo%
v&ri&bles beco%es &sy%ptotic&lly nor%&l &s n beco%es s''iciently l&rge.
<he &ccept&nceCreDection %ethod is developed 'or distribtions $ith co%ple( P1>s, $here the
co%ple( P1> f425 is repl&ced by & %ore &n&lytic&lly %&n&ge&ble pro(y P1> h425. 0&ndo%
s&%ples &re then t&"en 'ro% h425.
,&%&% Statisti$al A$$umulation )e$hanism
St&tistics co%prise & set o' per'or%&nce %e&sres &nd %onitoring v&ri&bles th&t &re de'ined
$ithin the 1?S %odel to 8&nti'y its per'or%&nce &nd to collect observ&tions &bot its beh&vior.
<hose st&tistics &re de'ined in the %odel 'or v&rios re&sons9
). :onitoring simulation progress$ L&les o' the set o' %odel st&tistics c&n be de'ined to be
p&rt o' %odel &ni%&tion. Sch v&les &re pd&ted discretely throgh %odel rn ti%e. <he
si(/sig%& te&% c&n observe the progress o' si%l&tion by %onitoring the ch&nges th&t
occr to the v&les o' the st&tistics de'ined. >or e(&%ple, the si(/sig%& te&% c&n observe
continosly the ch&nges th&t occr to the n%ber o' nits or csto%ers in the syste%.
2. #onducting scheduled simulation re-ie4s$ In %&ny si%l&tion stdies it is o'ten
necess&ry to revie$ the syste% st&te &t cert&in points in si%l&tion rn ti%e. <hose cold
be the end o' one $ee" o' oper&ting, the co%pletion o' & cert&in order, or &t & %odel/%i(
ch&nge. With %odel st&tistics de'ined, the si(/sig%& te&% c&n h&lt si%l&tion &t &ny point
in ti%e re&ched by the si%l&tion cloc", &nd revie$ si%l&tion progress by chec"ing the
v&les o' sch st&tistics. >or e(&%ple, the si(/sig%& te&% c&n stop the %odel &t the end
o' the d&y shi't &t & '&st/'ood rest&r&nt &nd revie$ the n%ber o' csto%ers $ho $&ited
%ore th&n )0 %intes &t the rest&r&nt drive/throgh $indo$.
3. Summari;ing model performance$ At the end o' the si%l&tion rn ti%e, the %odel
gener&tes & report th&t incldes &ver&ges 4point esti%&tes5 o' the st&tistics de'ined, &long
$ith v&ri&bility %e&sres sch &s v&ri&nce, r&nge, st&nd&rd devi&tion, &nd con'idence
interv&ls. <hose st&tistics c&n be sed &s & s%%&ry o' the over&ll syste% per'or%&nce.
>or e(&%ple, the &ver&ge throghpt 'or & prodction line is 'ond to be 66.6 nits per
hor.
Collecting st&tistics 'ro% & 1?S %odel dring rn ti%e &nd &t the end o' si%l&tion is &chieved
sing & st&tistic&l &cc%l&tion %ech&nis%. <hrogh this %ech&nis%, the %odel "eeps tr&c" o'
the st&tistics de'ined, &cc%l&tes their v&les, &nd provides &ver&ges o' their per'or%&nce. <his
%ech&nis% is per'or%ed &t the occrrence o' %odel events. As sho$n in >igre 6.6, %odel
st&tistics &re pd&ted &'ter the e(ection o' e&ch event &s $ell &s &t the end o' si%l&tion.
>or e(&%ple, $hen de'ining csto%er $&iting ti%e &s & st&tistic in & 1?S %odel o' & b&n", &
$&iting/ti%e st&tistic&l &cc%l&tor pd&tes the over&ll csto%er $&iting ti%e pon the &rriv&l or
dep&rtre o' csto%ers. As & si%l&tion rn ends, the tot&l &cc%l&ted $&iting ti%e is divided by
the n%ber o' csto%ers 4processed in the b&n" dring rn ti%e5 to obt&in the &ver&ge $&iting
ti%e 'or b&n" csto%ers. In %&n'&ctring, & pl&nt st&tistic c&n be the &ver&ge n%ber o' nits
prodced per hor. Jther st&tistics in & b&n" &nd & pl&nt e(&%ple &re sho$n in <&ble 6.)0.
+a3le ,&'1# Examles of Bank and !lant Statisti$s
Jpen t&ble &s spre&dsheet
Statisti$s in a Bank Examle Statisti$s in a !lant Examle
Aver&ge csto%er $&iting ti%e Aver&ge throghpt per hor
Aver&ge ti%e spent in & syste% #%ber o' de'ectives per shi't
Percent o' ti%e & b&n" teller is idle Aver&ge %&n'&ctring le&d ti%e
#%ber o' csto%ers served per d&y Percent&ge o' %&chine tili.&tion
2&(i%% length o' the $&iting line Aver&ge n%ber o' nits in b''er
,&%&, Animation )e$hanism
Ani%&tion in syste% si%l&tion is & se'l tool to both the si%l&tion %odeler &nd the decision
%&"er. 2ost gr&phic&lly b&sed si%l&tion so't$&re p&c"&ges h&ve de'&lt &ni%&tion ele%ents 'or
syste% resorces, b''ers, oper&tions, l&bor, &nd so on. <his is 8ite se'l 'or %odel debgging,
v&lid&tion, &nd veri'ic&tion. <his type o' &ni%&tion co%es $ith little or no &ddition&l e''ort &nd
gives the %odeler &ddition&l insight into ho$ the %odel $or"s &nd ho$ to test di''erent scen&rios.
>rther, the %ore re&listic the &ni%&tion, the %ore se'l the %odel beco%es to the decision
%&"er in testing scen&rios &nd i%ple%enting soltions.
Si%l&tion %odels c&n rn &nd prodce reslts $ithot &ni%&tion. <he %odel logic is e(ected,
%odel st&tistics &re &cc%l&ted, &nd & s%%&ry report is prodced &t the end o' the %odel rn
ti%e. Si%l&tion/b&sed si(/ sig%& te&%s sed to rely on the reslts o' the %odel progr&% to
v&lid&te the %odel &nd correct errors in logic progr&%%ing &nd %odel p&r&%eters. Jnly the
si%l&tion %odeler $ill be &ble to veri'y %odel correctness &nd se'lness. 1ecision %&"ers
revie$ the %odel reslts &nd sggest $h&t/i' scen&rios &nd e(peri%ents to be per'or%ed.
#o$&d&ys, ho$ever, $ith &ni%&tion being & %ech&nis% o' %ost si%l&tion p&c"&ges, decision
%&"ers c&n $&tch the %odel rn 4in & t$o/ or three/di%ension&l gr&phic&l represent&tion5, tr&c"
%odel entities, observe the i%p&ct o' ch&nges, &nd test %odel beh&vior &t &ny selected point in
the process 'lo$. Sch c&p&bility h&s helped %odelers sell ne$ concepts, co%p&re &ltern&tives,
&nd opti%i.e per'or%&nce. >in&lly, &ni%&ted %odel c&n be sed 'or tr&ining prposes &nd &s &
de%onstr&tion tool in v&rios types o' indstries.
Along $ith &ni%&tion c&p&bility, 1?S %odels &re o'ten co%bined $ith good %odel %&n&ge%ent
tools. -ser/'riendly gr&phic&l ser inter'&ces 'or gr&phics editing $ith libr&ries o' gr&phic&l tools
h&ve %&de %odel &ni%&tion &n e&sy &nd enDoy&ble process. So%e o' those tools h&ve been
developed co%bined $ith & si%l&tion d&t&b&se to store %odels, d&t&, reslts, &nd &ni%&tions.
2odles o' both gr&phic&l &nd p&r&%etric represent&tion 'or b&sic %odel co%ponents sch &s
p&rts, %&chines, resorces, l&bor, conters, 8ees, conveyors, &nd %&ny others &re &v&il&ble in
%ost si%l&tion p&c"&ges. >igre 6.+ sho$s &n e(&%ple o' three/di%ension&l si%l&tion
&ni%&tion bilt $ith Ato2od so't$&re.
Figure ,&/# <hree/di%ension&l si%l&tion &ni%&tion.
,&, )anual Simulation Examle
1iscrete event si%l&tion %odels &re driven by the %ech&nis%s o' discrete event 4tr&ns&ction/
b&sed5, ti%e &dv&nce%ent, r&ndo% s&%pling, st&tistic&l &cc%l&tion, &nd &ni%&tion, &s
discssed in Section 6.7. Sch %ech&nics c&n be better nderstood by &n&ly.ing & 8eing
syste%. Being syste%s &re closely rel&ted to si%l&tion %odels. Being %odels &re si%ple
&nd c&n be encontered &n&lytic&lly to co%p&re the reslts to si%l&tion %odel reslts. Jther
&n&lytic&l %odels th&t c&n be &n&ly.ed $ith si%l&tion inclde inventory %odels, 'in&nci&l
%odels, &nd reli&bility %odels.
Since $e h&ve closed/'or% 'or%l&s to &n&ly.e si%ple 8eing %odels, the need to &ppro&ch
sch %odels $ith si%l&tion is o'ten 8estion&ble. Si%l&tion is o'ten sed in sch c&ses to
cl&ri'y the &pplic&tion o' 1?S %ech&nis%s. Also, $hen &ss%ptions th&t &re re8ired 'or
developing &n&lytic&l 8eing syste%s do not &pply, si%l&tion is sed to &n&ly.e the syste%s.
?vents &rriv&l &nd dep&rtre, deter%ining e&ch eventEs ti%e o' occrrence, &nd pd&ting the
event list &re e(&%ples o' those %ech&nics. @&sed on the %ech&nics o' %odeling discrete
events, the %odeling st&te v&ri&bles &nd st&tistics collected &re deter%ined &t di''erent inst&nts
$hen e(ecting the %odel.
<o cl&ri'y the %ech&nics th&t t&"e pl&ce $ithin & 1?S %odel, &n e(&%ple o' & discrete event
si%l&tion %odel th&t represents & si%ple single/server 8eing %odel 42:2:)5 is presented. In
this %odel, c&rs &re &ss%ed to &rrive &t & single/b&y oil/ch&nge service st&tion b&sed on &n
e(ponenti&lly distribted inter&rriv&l ti%e 4t5 $ith & %e&n o' 20 %intes. <$o types o' oil ch&nges
t&"e pl&ce in the st&tion b&y9 & regl&r oil ch&nge th&t t&"es &bot )6 %intes on &ver&ge, &nd
'll service, $hich t&"es &bot 20 %intes on &ver&ge. <he st&tion history sho$s th&t only 20Q o'
csto%ers &s" 'or & 'll/service oil ch&nge. A si%l&tion %odel is bilt to %i%ic oper&tion o' the
service st&tion. 2odel &ss%ptions inclde the 'ollo$ing9
<here &re no c&rs in the oil/ch&nge st&tion initi&lly 4the 8ee is e%pty &nd the oil/ch&nge
b&y is e%pty5.
<he 'irst c&r &rrives &t the beginning o' si%l&tion 4cloc" ti%e T = 05.
C&rs inter&rriv&l ti%es &re distribted e(ponenti&lly 4this &ss%ption is essenti&l in
&n&ly.ing the %odel &s & 8eing syste%5, $here&s the oil/ ch&nge ti%e is distribted
discretely, $ith & )6/%inte service ti%e h&ving & prob&bility o' +0Q &nd & 20/%inte service
ti%e h&ving & prob&bility o' 20Q.
<he %ove ti%e 'ro% the 8ee to the oil/ch&nge b&y is negligible.
C&rs &re plled 'ro% the 8ee b&sed on 'irst/in/'irst/ot 4>I>J5 discipline.
#o '&ilres &re e(pected to occr &t the oil/ch&nge b&y.
<he logic o' the si%l&tion %odel is per'or%ed b&sed on the 'ollo$ing %ech&nics9 In & discrete
event %ech&nis%, entities 4c&rs5 &rrive &nd dep&rt the service st&tion &t cert&in points in ti%e.
?&ch &rriv&l or dep&rtre is &n event, &nd e&ch event is stored chronologic&lly in &n event list
&ccording to the 'ollo$ing 'or%l&s9
ne(t &rriv&l ti%e = crrent si%l&tion cloc" ti%e + gener&ted inter&rriv&l ti%e
ne(t dep&rtre ti%e = crrent si%l&tion cloc" ti%e + gener&ted service ti%e
>or e&ch c&r &rriv&l, cert&in logic is e(ected b&sed on the discrete event &nd ti%e/&dv&nce%ent
%ech&nis%s. I' & b&y is idle 4e%pty5, the c&r &rriving &t ti%e T enters the b&y 'or service. An 0#G
is sed to s&%ple r&ndo%ly & service ti%e s &nd schedle the c&r dep&rtre to be &t ti%e t = T +
s. In c&se the b&y is bsy, the c&r enters the st&tion 8ee &nd $&its 'or the b&y to be e%pty
b&sed on & >I>J schedle. Jnce the c&r 'inishes service, &n inter&rriv&l ti%e 4a5 is s&%pled
r&ndo%ly sing the 0#G, &nd & ne$ &rriv&l is schedled &t ti%e t = T + a. St&tistics &re
&cc%l&ted &nd collected &nd si%l&tion contines si%il&rly 'or &nother &rriv&l. <he e(ection o'
event &rriv&l is sho$n in & 'lo$ ch&rt &s depicted in >igre 6.,.
Figure ,&0# ?(ection o' & c&r &rriv&lCdep&rtre process.
C&rs inter&rriv&l ti%e is gener&ted r&ndo%ly 'ro% & continos e(ponenti&l distribtion 4%e&n =
20 %intes5, $hile the service ti%e is gener&ted r&ndo%ly 'ro% & discrete distribtion 4)6 %intes
$ith prob&bility +0Q &nd 20 %intes $ith prob&bility 20Q5. S&%pling 'ro% the e(ponenti&l
distribtion $ith & C1> o' f4t5 = ) e
t
, t > 0, reslts in t = 4):5 ln4) R5, $here R = f4t5.L&les o'
R sed to obt&in sccessive r&ndo% ti%e s&%ples 4t5 &re selected 'ro% & ni'or% 40,)5
distribtion sing the ;CG %ethod. Si%il&rly, R is gener&ted 'or s&%pling 'ro% the discrete
distribtion to deter%ine the service ti%e 4s5, $here s = )6 %intes i' 0 R 0.+ &nd s = 20
%intes i' 0.+ < R ).0.
<here'ore, $hen st&rting the si%l&tion 4T = 0, the ti%e &t the si%l&tion cloc"5, $e &ss%e th&t
the 'irst c&r 4csto%er )5 &rrives &t T = 0. <he &rriv&l o' csto%er ) is the event th&t ch&nges the
st&te o' the service st&tion 'ro% idle to bsy.<he service ti%e &ssigned 'or the 'irst csto%er
4csto%er )5 sing R = 0.66*7 is s = )6.00 %intes. <hs, csto%er ) dep&rtre ti%e is
schedled &s 40 + )6.00 = )6.00 %intes5.
While csto%er )Es c&r is receiving & regl&r oil ch&nge, &nother c&r 4csto%er 25 %&y be driven
into the service st&tion. <he &rriv&l ti%e o' csto%er 2 is deter%ined sing R = 0.+623 &s t = 4205
ln4) 0.+6235 = 3+.27 %intes. !ence, the &rriv&l ti%e 'or csto%er 2 is schedled &s 40 + 3+.27
= 3+.27 %intes5.
@&sed on this %ech&nic, the 'irst event list 4?;5 is 'or%ed $ith t$o schedled events on the
si%l&tion cloc"9
4), t)59 dep&rtre o' csto%er )O the dep&rtre ti%e is T = )6.00 %intes.
42, t259 &rriv&l o' csto%er 2O the &rriv&l ti%e is T = 3+.27 %intes.
App&rently, csto%er ) $ill dep&rt the service st&tion be'ore csto%er 2 &rrives. ) $ill be
re%oved 'ro% top o' the ?; &nd the list $ill be redced to 2 &lone. <he si%l&tion cloc" $ill be
&dv&nced to the ne(t event 425 ti%e 4T = )6.00 %intes5 in order to e(ecte 2. <he dep&rtre o'
csto%er ) is the event th&t ch&nges the st&te o' the service st&tion 'ro% bsy to idle.
<he service ti%e &ssigned to csto%er 2 sing R = 0.++6* is s = 20.00 %intes. !ence, the
dep&rtre ti%e o' csto%er 2 is schedled &s 43+.27 + 20.00 = 6+.27 %intes5. A'ter the &rriv&l o'
csto%er 2, &nother c&r 4csto%er 35 is schedled to &rrive &t t = 4205 ln4) 0.26635 = 6.,2
%intes sing R = 0.2663. <he &rriv&l o' csto%er 3 is schedled &s 3+.27 + 6.,2 = 77.)6
%intes.
@&sed on this %ech&nic, the event list is pd&ted $ith the t$o schedled events 439 dep&rtre o'
csto%er 2 &nd 7 = &rriv&l o' csto%er 35. <he t$o events &re schedled on the si%l&tion cloc"
&s 'ollo$s9
39 T = 6+.27 %intes
79 T = 77.)6 %intes
App&rently, csto%er 3 $ill &rrive &t the service st&tion be'ore the dep&rtre o' csto%er 2,
reslting in & $&iting ti%e o' 46+.27 77.)6 = )7.0+ %intes5.
Si%l&tion rn ti%e contines sing the %ech&nis% described ntil & cert&in ter%in&ting condition
is %et &t & cert&in n%ber o' ti%e nits 4e.g., three prodction shi'ts, ) ye&r o' service, 2000 nits
prodced, &nd so on5. A si%l&tion t&ble th&t s%%&ri.es the dyn&%ics o' the 'irst 20 c&rs
&rriving &t the service st&tion is sho$n in <&ble 6.)), $here the 'ollo$ing sy%bols &re sed9
+a3le ,&''# Simulation +a3le for the First (1 Cars
Jpen t&ble &s spre&dsheet
A B C D E F ; H "
) 0.00 0.00 )6.00 0 0.00 )6.00 )6.00 0.00
2 3+.27 3+.27 20.00 3+.27 0.00 6+.27 20.00 23.27
3 6.,2 77.)6 20.00 6+.27 )7.0+ *+.27 37.0+ 0.00
7 3).70 *6.66 )6.00 *+.27 2.6+ ,3.27 )*.6+ 0.00
6 )3.26 ++.+) 20.00 ,3.27 7.73 ))3.27 27.73 0.00
6 2+.)2 ))6.,3 )6.00 ))6.,3 0.00 )3).,3 )6.00 3.6,
* )7.36 )3).2+ )6.00 )3).,3 0.66 )76.,3 )6.66 0.00
+ )6.22 )76.60 )6.00 )76.,3 0.73 )6).,3 )6.73 0.00
, 2).+* )6+.3* 20.00 )6+.3* 0.00 )++.3* 20.00 6.77
)0 )3.,+ )+2.36 )6.00 )++.3* 6.02 203.3* 2).02 0.00
)) 36.67 2)+.+, )6.00 2)+.+, 0.00 233.+, )6.00 )6.62
)2 ,.,6 22+.+7 )6.00 233.+, 6.06 27+.+, 20.06 0.00
)3 )0.67 23,.3+ )6.00 27+.+, ,.6) 263.+, 27.6) 0.00
)7 23.67 263.02 20.00 263.+, 0.+* 2+3.+, 20.+* 0.00
)6 )).*0 2*7.*2 )6.00 2+3.+, ,.)* 2,+.+, 27.)* 0.00
+a3le ,&''# Simulation +a3le for the First (1 Cars
Jpen t&ble &s spre&dsheet
A B C D E F ; H "
)6 )6.,0 2,0.62 )6.00 2,+.+, +.2* 3)3.+, 23.2* 0.00
)* 2+.*0 3),.32 )6.00 3),.32 0.00 337.32 )6.00 6.73
)+ 26.66 377.,* )6.00 377.,* 0.00 36,.,* )6.00 )0.66
), 22.76 36*.72 20.00 36*.72 0.00 3+*.72 20.00 *.76
20 )2.60 3*,.,2 )6.00 3+*.72 *.60 702.72 22.60 0.00
Sum <=>$>2

<<0$00

6?$66

<>?$66 =2$@2
A9 csto%er n%ber 4),2, . . . , 205
@9 r&ndo%ly gener&ted inter&rriv&l ti%e in %intes 'or e&ch csto%er
C9 &rriv&l ti%e o' e&ch csto%er
19 r&ndo%ly gener&ted service ti%e in %intes 'or e&ch csto%er
?9 ti%e &t $hich service 4oil ch&nge5 begins
>9 ti%e th&t e&ch csto%er $&its in the 8ee $&iting 'or service to begin
G9 ti%e &t $hich service 4oil ch&nge5 ends
!9 tot&l ti%e & csto%er spends in the syste% 4$&iting pls service5
I9 idle ti%e 'or the st&tion b&y
Sever&l st&tistics c&n be c&lcl&ted %&n&lly 'ro% d&t& in the si%l&tion t&ble. <hese st&tistics
&re collected by &cc%l&ting st&te v&ri&bles &nd by &ver&ging the &cc%l&ted v&les over the
rn ti%e. In co%pter si%l&tion, %odel st&te v&ri&bles &re tr&c"ed dyn&%ic&lly to &cc%l&te
ti%es &nd occr/ rences o' events over rn ti%e &nd to provide &ver&ges o' st&tistics o' interest &t
the end o' the si%l&tion rn ti%e. <he 'ollo$ing c&lcl&tions sho$ e(&%ples o' "ey st&tistics th&t
&re o' interest to the &n&lyst in the service st&tion e(&%ple9
Aver&ge csto%er $&iting ti%e = 4tot&l $&iting ti%e in 8ee5:4n%ber o' csto%ers5 =
6+.66:20 = 3.73 %intes.
Aver&ge c&r service ti%e = 4tot&l service ti%e5:4n%ber o' csto%ers5 = 330.00:20 =
)6.60 %intes.
Aver&ge inter&rriv&l ti%e = 4s% o' inter&rriv&l ti%es5:4n%ber o' csto%ers5 ) =
3*,.,2:420 )5 = ),.,, %intes.
Aver&ge $&iting ti%e 'or $&iting csto%ers = 4tot&l $&iting ti%e5:4n%ber o' csto%ers
$ho $&it5 = 6+.66:)2 = 6.*2 %intes.
Aver&ge ti%e/in/syste% = 4tot&l ti%e in syste%5:4n%ber o' csto%ers5 = 3,+.66:20 =
),.,3 %intes. <his c&n &lso be c&lcl&ted by s%%ing the &ver&ge $&iting ti%e &nd
&ver&ge service ti%e 4i.e., 3.73 + )6.6 = ),.,35.
<he prob&bility th&t & csto%er h&s to $&it = 4n%ber o' csto%ers $ho $&it5:4n%ber o'
csto%ers5 = )2:20 = 60Q.
<he tili.&tion o' the st&tion b&y = H).00 4tot&l idle ti%e:tot&l rn ti%e5I = )00Q H).00
4*2.72:702.725I = +2.00Q.
,&- Comuter DES Examle
In this section $e present & 1?S co%pter si%l&tion %odel 'or & s%&ll he&lth c&re clinic.
Si%l&tion is tili.ed to bild & clinic %odel th&t c&n be sed to &ssess oper&tion&l &ltern&tives 'or
%&(i%i.ing the n%ber o' p&tients served $hile %ini%i.ing the p&tient ti%e/in/syste% 4clinic5.
<hrogh this si%ple e(&%ple $e describe ho$ 1?S %ech&nics &re tili.ed to represent clinic
ele%ents &nd p&tient 'lo$ &nd to gener&te si%l&tion d&t& 'ro% relev&nt s&%pling distribtions.
We brie'ly discss %odel &ss%ptions, %odel constrction, &nd %odel v&lid&tion &nd veri'ic&tion.
>in&lly, & %odel &n&lysis s&%ple $ill be presented to de%onstr&te ho$ 1?S provides &ns$ers to
"ey 8estions on the beh&vior o' the clinic syste%.
<he clinic tre&ts both rgent &nd &cte c&re p&tients. 2ost p&tients re8ire &cte c&re. 2ost
rgent c&re p&tients &re &ssessed by clinic doctors &nd sent to the hospit&l. <he clinic &d%its t$o
types o' p&tients9 ne$ p&tients 4i.e., $&l"/ ins5 &nd retrn p&tients 4i.e., p&tients $ith
&ppoint%ents5. A p&tient &rrives &t the clinicEs $&iting roo% &nd $&its &t the registr&tion conter.
P&tients then $&it 'or the %edic&l &ssist&nt to &d%it the% to the clinic. <he %edic&l &ssist&nt c&lls
p&tients, t&"es their blood pressre, chec"s their te%per&tre, &nd &s" the% relev&nt 8estions
be'ore they enter the e(&%in&tion roo%. <he t$o physici&ns in the e(&%in&tion roo%s di&gnose
p&tients, rele&se the%, or direct the% to the l&b or the ph&r%&cy. I' the p&tient is sent to the l&b
he or she retrns $ith the l&b reslts to the e(&%in&tion roo% to see the s&%e physici&n th&t he
or she s&$ e&rlier. P&tients $ho h&ve been rele&sed le&ve the clinic. >igre 6.)0 sho$s p&tient
'lo$ in the clinic. Potenti&l p&tient $&iting points &re inclded on the %&p.
Figure ,&'1# Process %&p o' p&tient 'lo$ in the clinic e(&%ple.
-nli"e %&n&l si%l&tion, the clinic logic &nd 'lo$ sho$n in >igre 6.)) is not e&sy to %odel
%&n&lly 4&n&lytic&lly5. A net$or" o' 8ees c&n be sed to &ppro(i%&te the soltion $ith %&ny
&ss%ptions. !ence, co%pter 1?S $ith Ato2od so't$&re is sed to %odel the clinic, esti%&te
its per'or%&nce %etrics, &nd select the best oper&ting str&tegy.
Figure ,&''# Ato2od si%l&tion %odel o' the clinic e(&%ple.
<he stdent version o' the Ato2od so't$&re p&c"&ge is sed to si%l&te the clinic e(&%ple.
?ven $ith the li%ited n%ber o' si%l&tion entities in the stdent version, Ato2od provides &
'le(ible %odel bilding &nd logic progr&%%ing pl&t'or% th&t %&"es it e&sy to develop three/
di%ension&l strctres, incorpor&te co%ple( logic, &nd insert process d&t&. It &lso esti%&tes
%&ny si%l&tion st&tistics &nd provides &n e(cellent %odle to &n&ly.e si%l&tion otpts $ith
AtoSt&t. <he 'ollo$ing &ss%ptions &re sed in bilding the clinic si%l&tion %odel9
<he p&tientsE inter&rriv&l ti%e is distribted e(ponenti&lly $ith & %e&n o' )6 %intes.
Arriving p&tients register &nd $&it to be c&lled. <he clinic $&iting roo% h&s & %&(i%%
c&p&city o' 60 se&ts.
<he clinic oper&tion p&ttern is + hors per d&y 'ro% +900 &.%. to 6900 p.%. $ith & )/hor
lnch, $hich is set initi&lly )2900 to )900 p.%. 1e to the n&tre o' the clinic $or", ho$ever,
st&'' %e%bers t&"e their lnch bre&" b&sed on their &v&il&ble idle ti%e.
<$enty/'ive percent o' p&tients &re re8ired to t&"e & l&b blood test, $hich t&"es 26
%intes on &ver&ge. P&tients $ho t&"e their l&b test %st retrn to the physici&n $ho
re8ested the test. P&tients retrning 'ro% the l&b test h&ve & di''erent processing ti%es by
physici&ns.
Si(ty percent o' p&tients &re re8ired to reschedle &ppoint%ents $ith & clinic physici&n
'or 'rther tre&t%ent.
>i'ty percent o' p&tients &re sent to the ph&r%&cy to get prescription drgs.
>i'teen percent o' p&tients &re tre&ted by & clinic physici&n &nd rele&sed 'ro% the clinic in
their 'irst visit.
<he %edic&l &ssist&nt per'or%s three 'nctions9 t&"ing blood pressre, chec"ing
te%per&tre, &nd &s"ing p&tients 8estions &bot their he&lth.
Clinic st&'' &re distribted &s sho$n in <&ble 6.)2.
+a3le ,&'(# Distri3ution of Clini$ Staff
Jpen t&ble &s spre&dsheet
Resour$e Staff
Conter ) cler"
0egistr&tion 2 cler"s
2edic&l c&re 2 &ssist&nts
?(&%in&tion 2 physici&ns
<est l&b ) technici&n
Ph&r%&cy ) ph&r%&cist
<o %odel the stoch&stic n&tre o' the clinic oper&tion, the si%l&tion d&t& th&t h&ve been
collected &re 'itted to st&nd&rd distribtions. 2odel inpts &re gener&ted r&ndo%ly 'ro%
Ato2odEs bilt/in st&tistic&l distribtions. In Ato2od, distribtions &re s&%pled sing &n inverse
%ethod $ith ;CG 0#G. >rther det&ils on %odeling si%l&tion inpts &re presented in Ch&pter 6.
<&ble 6.)3 s%%&ri.es the s&%pling distribtions sed in the clinic %odel.
+a3le ,&'*# Samling Distri3utions :sed in the Clini$ Examle
Jpen t&ble &s spre&dsheet
!ro$ess !atient +ye Distri3ution
Arriv&l All p&tients ?(ponenti&l 4)6 %in5
Conter Jst entering clinic
<o be rele&sed 'ro% clinic
-ni'or% 4).2, 0.65 %in
?(ponenti&l 47 %in5
0egistr&tion #e$ &nd $&l"/ins
0etrning
-ni'or% 43.6, ).65
-ni'or% 42, 0.65
2edic&l &ssist&nt <&"ing blood pressre
Chec"ing te%per&tre
Bestionn&ire
#or%&l 460, 65 sec
#or%&l 460, 65 sec
<ri&ngl&r 42, 7, )05 %in
?(&%in&tion All p&tients
0etrning 'ro% l&b test
<ri&ngl&r 4)0, )6, 705
<ri&ngl&r 47, 6, )05 %in
;&b test Per'or%ing blood test #or%&l 426, 35 %in
Ph&r%&cy >irst ti%e
Second ti%e
<ri&ngl&r 4).6, 7, +5 %in
<ri&ngl&r 4), 3, 65 %in
Since Ato2od is lo&d/driven, clinic %odel bilding $ith Ato2od begins by de'ining & process
'or cre&ting p&tients 4lo&ds5. An initi&li.&tion process c&n be sed to cre&te & d%%y lo&d &nd
clone to v&rios clinic processes. P&tients &re directed throgh clinic oper&tions b&sed on
&ssigning lo&d &ttribtes. <he t$o %&in lo&d types de'ined &re 'or $&l"/ins &nd schedled 4ne$ or
retrning5 p&tients. Bees &nd resorces &re then sed to constrct the clinic %odel. ?&ch
8ee is de'ined in ter%s o' c&p&city &nd loc&tion, &nd e&ch resorce is de'ined $ith & cert&in
distribtion cycle ti%e. Synt&( is $ritten to direct p&tient 'lo$ &nd to control inter&ctions &%ong
clinic processes. <he %odel intended 'lo$ logic is sed to veri'y the %odel, &nd the per'or%&nce
d&t& e(pected or observed &re sed to v&lid&te the %odel. >igre 6.)) sho$s & si%ple &ni%&tion
o' the Ato2od clinic si%l&tion %odel.
Jnce v&lid&ted &nd veri'ied, the %odel c&n be sed to collect clinic st&tistics &to%&tic&lly. -nli"e
%&n&l si%l&tion, ho$ever, co%pter si%l&tion cre&tes & si%l&tion events list, tr&c"s events,
pd&tes the event list, &nd develops &n intern&l si%l&tion t&ble to &cc%l&te si%l&tion
st&tistics. We obt&in the reslts by rnning the %odel 'or 70 hors. <he 'ollo$ing st&tistics &re
gener&ted 'ro% the %odel9
&ver&ge ti%e th&t p&tients spend in the clinic = +7.62 %intes
&ver&ge service 4tot&l tre&t%ent5 ti%e = 66.) %intes
&ver&ge $&iting ti%e = 2+.62 %intes
n%ber o' p&tients tre&ted d&ily = 2* p&tients
We 'ond th&t the p&tient e(&%in&tion process contribted the %&Dor del&y in the clinic. <he
e(&%in&tion process t&"es on &ver&ge 72.,0 %intes, $ith & $&iting ti%e o' &bot 20.,* %intes
&nd & tre&t%ent ti%e o' &bot 2).,3 %intes. Also, p&tients co%pl&in th&t physici&ns &re
pressred to co%plete tre&t%ent 8ic"ly. Still, ho$ever, de to roting p&tients, the t$o clinic
e(&%in&tion physici&ns &re tili.ed ,3.6Q &nd +,.6Q. <his is & rel&tively high tili.&tion v&le.
<he obDective is to se the %odel to redce $&iting ti%e &nd incre&se service ti%e $ithot 'rther
incre&sing the tili.&tion o' e(&%in&tion resorces &nd $ithot redcing the n%ber o' p&tients
tre&ted d&ily. It is there'ore sggested &s &n &ltern&tive process con'igr&tion to %ini%i.e cost
th&t one o' the registr&tion cler"s be re%oved &nd the e(&%in&tion physici&ns be incre&sed by
one. <he &ltern&tive clinic process strctre incldes ch&nging clinic resorces &s sho$n in <&ble
6.)7.
+a3le ,&'%# Alternati4e Clini$ !ro$ess Stru$ture
Jpen t&ble &s spre&dsheet
Resour$e Staff
Conter ) cler"
0egistr&tion ) cler"
2edic&l c&re 2 &ssist&nts
?(&%in&tion 3 physici&ns
<est l&b ) technici&n
Ph&r%&cy ) ph&r%&cist
@y rnning &nother si%l&tion $ith the ne$ clinic strctre, the 'ollo$ing st&tistics &re gener&ted
'ro% the %odel9
&ver&ge ti%e th&t p&tients spend in the clinic = *7.30 %intes
&ver&ge service 4tot&l tre&t%ent5 ti%e = 60.)2 %intes
&ver&ge $&iting ti%e = )7.)+ %intes
n%ber o' p&tients tre&ted d&ily = 32 p&tients
<he pd&ted st&tistics sho$ & redction in the &ver&ge ti%e spent in the clinic, $ith &n incre&se in
the tre&t%ent ti%e. <he redction is &chieved pri%&rily in $&iting ti%e. ?(&%in&tion physici&ns
spend & longer ti%e $ith p&tients.<he tot&l n%ber o' p&tients tre&ted d&ily h&s incre&sed to &n
&ver&ge o' 32. Aver&ge tili.&tion o' the three physici&n resorces is &lso redced to &n &ver&ge
o' *6Q 4*7.+Q, *6.6Q, &nd *3.7Q5. <he pd&ted process con'igr&tion is &lso v&lid&ted $ith
sbDect %&tter e(perts &nd reco%%ended 'or i%ple%ent&tion. I%prove%ent $&s &lso Dsti'ied
$ith & costCbene'it &n&lysis.
,&. Summary
<he 1?S techni8es presented in this ch&pter &re %ost c&p&ble &nd po$er'l tools 'or bsiness
process si%l&tion o' tr&ns&ction&l n&tre $ithin 1>SS &nd si(/sig%& proDects. A 1?S provides
%odeling o' entity 'lo$s $ith c&p&bilities th&t &llo$ the si%l&tion %odeler to see ho$ 'lo$ obDects
&re roted throgh the syste%. 1?S $itnesses gro$ing c&p&bility, so't$&re tools, &nd & $ide
spectr% o' re&l/$orld &pplic&tions.
Sever&l consider&tions shold prep&re the te&% 'or pl&nning & tr&ns&ction/ b&sed process
si%l&tion stdy &nd 'or &ddressing the sit&bility o' their choice o' &dopted si%l&tion p&c"&ge.
>irst, & cle&r cl&ssi'ic&tion o' the proDect bsiness processes is needed &s & prodct develop%ent
&nd prodction process 'or proble% solving, inclding distribtion processes or service/b&sed
processes. Process cycle ti%es &nd resorce re8ire%ents &re s&lly h&ndled by si%l&tion,
prodcing %ore &ccr&te reslts. 2&ny 1?S si%l&tion p&c"&ges &re c&p&ble o' representing
highly v&ri&ble steps $ith tightly copled resorces. 2odeling shi'ts, do$nti%e, overti%e, &nd
le&rning crves $ith %ltiple replic&tions 'or resorces &re so%e o' the i%port&nt consider&tions
in bilding & v&lid si%l&tion %odel.
In the conte(t o' si(/sig%&, discrete event si%l&tion is 8ite sit&ble 'or prodction process
proble% solving, $here otpts &re prodced in & b&tch or continos/'lo$ %ode in rel&tively
high vol%es. <&s"s sch &s &sse%bly, dis&sse%bly, setp, inspection, &nd re$or" &re typic&l
steps in prodction processes $ith 8eing rles &nd do$nti%e %odeling. Sch processes &re
s&lly %odeled to obt&in ste&dy/st&te beh&vior p&st the $&r%/p period.
In %odeling distribtion processes in & prodction environ%ent, it is i%port&nt to de'ine &ttribtes
'or 'lo$ entities in order to "eep tr&c" o' ni8e ch&r&cteristics sch &s v&le/&dds, cost, &nd
dist&nce tr&veled. 1e to the tr&nsient n&tre o' distribtion processes, the si%l&tion %odel
$&r%/p period is s&lly longer th&n other prodction processes.
In & service/b&sed indstry, processes present & %&Dor &re& 'or e%ploy%ent o' si%l&tion
stdies. <hese processes &re typic&lly ch&r&cteri.ed by & non/ v&le/&dded ti%e th&t e(ceeds the
v&le/&dded ti%e 4processing5. <he si%l&tion o' service processes represents & ch&llenge
bec&se the entities &nd processing resorces &re both typic&lly h%&n. 2odeling h%&n
beh&vior is co%ple( &nd npredict&ble. >or e(&%ple, csto%ers c&lling & service center %&y hold
or h&ng p. 2odeling &d&pt&tion is re8ired to %odel sch sit&tions. Also, processing ti%es &re
highly v&ri&ble &nd csto%er &rriv&ls &re r&ndo% &nd &dd to the %odel co%ple(ity. 2odel
&ccr&cy de%&nds represent&tive prob&bility distribtions. Jther$ise, & ste&dy st&te %&y not be
re&ched.
Chater -# +he Simulation !ro$ess
-&' "ntrodu$tion
<he set o' techni8es, steps, &nd logic 'ollo$ed $hen condcting & si%l&tion stdy is re'erred to
in the conte(t o' this boo" &s & simulation process. <he det&ils o' sch & process o'ten depend on
the n&tre o' the si(/sig%& proDect, the proDect obDectives, the si%l&tion so't$&re sed, &nd even
on the $&y the te&% h&ndles si%l&tion %odeling.Althogh the t&ctics o' sch & process o'ten
v&ries 'ro% one &pplic&tion to &nother &nd 'ro% one si%l&tion proDect to &nother, the over&ll
strctre o' the si%l&tion process is co%%on. It is necess&ry to 'ollo$ & syste%&tic %ethod
$hen per'or%ing the si%l&tion process. <his ch&pter is 'ocsed on &n&ly.ing the v&rios
&spects o' the si%l&tion process, the process 'ollo$ed by & si(/sig%& te&% c&rrying ot &
co%plete si%l&tion stdy.
Si%l&tion proDects &re condcted pri%&rily 'or one o' three prposes9 syste% design, proble%
solving, &nd continos i%prove%ent. <he three prposes c&n, ho$ever, be &chieved sing &
generic syste%&tic &ppro&ch. <his &ppro&ch st&rts $ith & cle&r de'inition o' the design ch&llenge,
the proble%, or the i%prove%ent opportnity. Altern&tives o' syste% design, proble% solving, &nd
i%prove%ent opportnity &re then developed.<hese &ltern&tives &re ev&l&ted sing si%l&tion/
b&sed per'or%&nce criteri& chosen by the te&%. <he &ltern&tive $ith the best esti%&ted
per'or%&nce is 'in&lly selected &nd i%ple%ented.
Si%l&tion is sed &s &n e''ective tool 'or di&gnosing the syste% &nd de'ining proble%s,
ch&llenges, &nd opportnities. It is &lso sed 'or developing &nd ev&l&ting &ltern&tives &s $ell &s
'or &ssessing the per'or%&nce o' e&ch &ltern&tive. !ence, & co%plete si%l&tion stdy o'ten
incldes proble% de'initionO setting si%l&tion obDectivesO developing & concept&l %odelO
speci'ying %odel &ss%ptionsO collecting pertinent %odel d&t&O bilding, veri'ying, &nd v&lid&ting
the si%l&tion %odelO &n&ly.ing %odel otptsO &nd doc%enting the proDect 'indings.
-&( Categories Of Simulation Studies
@&sed on the princip&l go&l o' the proDect, si%l&tion stdies c&n be c&tegori.ed into three
cl&sses9 syste% design, proble% solving, &nd continos i%prove%ent. <hese c&tegories &re
sho$n in >igre 6.). <he t&ctics &nd techni8es sed in & si%l&tion stdy o'ten v&ry depending
on these three c&tegories. >in&lly, it is $orth %entioning th&t si%l&tion is the environ%ent o'
si%l&tion/b&sed si(/sig%&, le&n si(/sig%&, &nd design 'or si(/sig%& %ethods. >ollo$ing is &
discssion o' the three c&tegories o' si%l&tion stdies.
Figure -&'# C&tegories o' si%l&tion stdies.
-&(&' Simulation-Based System Design
2&ny si%l&tion stdies &re sed to &ssist the design process. <his is o'ten &ligned $ith & typic&l
obDective o' & 1>SS proDect. !o$ever, the 'ocs here is on & event/driven or tr&ns&ction/b&sed
process &nd service design r&ther th&n the prodct design 4see, e.g., =&ng &nd ?l/!&i", 20035.
Process co%p&tibility stdies c&n bene'it gre&tly 'ro% si%l&tion/b&sed design. Applic&tions o'
si%l&tion proDects inclde & $ide spectr% o' proDects, sch &s the develop%ent o' ne$ '&cilities,
%&Dor e(p&nsions o' & %&n'&ctring syste%, & ne$ clinic, & ne$ b&n", & ne$ vehicle progr&%,
&nd & ne$ tr&nsport&tion net$or".
1esigning & ne$ syste% or process $ith or $ithot si%l&tion o'ten involves testing ne$
concepts, bilding ne$ strctres or l&yots, &nd developing ne$ logic. <ypic&l obDectives o'
design si%l&tion stdies inclde developing & ne$ syste% design, &ssessing &nd v&lid&ting &
proposed design, &nd co%p&ring t$o or %ore design &ltern&tives. We c&n conclde th&t so%e
synergy &nd &lign%ent c&n be lever&ged by dr&$ing on the si%il&rities bet$een syste% design
&nd the si%l&tion process. <his is e(plored 'rther in l&ter ch&pters o' this boo".
<he 'le(ibility o' si%l&tion %odeling provides &n e(cellent pl&t'or% 'or developing &nd testing
design &ltern&tives &s $ell &s 'or &n&ly.ing & v&riety o' process sche%es.<he rel&tively lo$ cost
&nd high e''iciency o' si%l&tion o'ten pro%otes the se o' si%l&tion stdies, solely on sch
%erits. S&ving &chieved 'ro% si%l&tion/b&sed design stdies o'ten co%e 'ro% testing design
'e&sibility, enh&ncing the syste% strctre, &nd reco%%ending process ch&nges p 'ront 4see
Section +.75. 1esign ch&nges h&ve lo$ cost &nd resorce i%plic&tions $hen c&rried ot &t the
concept st&ge 4see Ch&pter + 'or & theoretic&l conte(t &nd Ch&pter )0 'or &n &pplic&tion c&se
stdy5. >igre 6.2 sho$s the proDect cost rel&tion to the st&ge o' the proDect. As sho$n in the
'igre, the cost o' engineering ch&nges incre&ses e(ponenti&lly $ith ti%e in &ny proDect.
?(pensive ch&nges o'ten t&"e pl&ce &t the constrction &nd oper&tion st&ges o' the proDect,
$here the proDect is sbDected to costly del&ys, oper&tion interrptions, &nd di''iclt physic&l
ch&nges.
Figure -&(# Cost o' %&"ing ch&nges &t v&rios proDect st&ges.
As sho$n in >igre 6.3, the design o' sch syste%s incldes syste% strctr&l design, logic&l
design, &nd syste% p&r&%etric design.
Figure -&*# Syste% design $ith si%l&tion.
). Syste% strctr&l design incldes developing & syste% strctre in ter%s o' ele%ents,
l&yot, &nd represent&tion. In & pl&nt e(&%ple, this %&y inclde selecting %&chines,
pieces o' e8ip%ent, &nd %&teri&l/h&ndling syste%s, &nd developing &n &ppropri&te l&yot
o' the syste% strctre. <he l&yot $old inclde dep&rt%ent&l sp&cing, $or"sp&ce
design, &isles, %&teri&l 'lo$ di&gr&%, &nd so on. An &ctivity rel&tionship di&gr&% is o'ten
sed to gide &nd strctre the syste% l&yot. >in&lly, represent&tion is %&de sing
gr&phic&l tools &nd %ethods to present the %odel strctre de'ined.
2. Syste% logic&l design incldes developing the logic th&t governs the beh&vior o' the
nderlying syste%. <he syste% 'nction&lity &nd the $&y throgh $hich syste% ele%ents
$or" on syste% entities &re de'ined throgh the syste% logic&l design. ?(&%ples o' logic&l
design inclde 'lo$ logic, se8ence o' oper&tion, priority sche%es, %&"ing decisions,
schedling rles, &nd so on.
3. P&r&%etric design incldes setting p&r&%eters 4control '&ctors5 to v&les or levels th&t
le&d to 'est per'or%&nce. <hese p&r&%eters &re de'ined &s settings 'or %odel strctr&l
ele%ents. ?(&%ples inclde %&chine cycle ti%es &nd reli&bility d&t&, %&teri&l h&ndling
&nd tr&ns'er speed, b''er c&p&city, &nd so on. 1i''erent levels o' sch p&r&%eters &re
tested sing the si%l&tion %odel throgh e(peri%ent&l design &nd opti%i.&tion se&rch to
&rrive &t the p&r&%eter settings th&t le&d to best syste% per'or%&nce. >or e(&%ple,
di''erent p&r&%eters in & %&n'&ctring process 4e.g., n%ber o' oper&tors, %&chine cycle
ti%es, conveyor speeds, b''er c&p&cities5 &re set so th&t the throghpt o' & pl&nt is
%&(i%i.ed.
Syste% strctr&l, logic&l, &nd p&r&%etric design &''ects syste% per'or%&nce 4%odel response5
directly in ter%s o' syste% throghpt, le&d ti%e, inventory levels, &nd so on. In designing
syste%s, sch responses
H)I
&re sed to gide the design process. >or e(&%ple, one l&yot %&y
reslt in longer %&teri&l 'lo$ &nd conse8ently, longer %&n'&ctring le&d ti%e. 1el&ys cre&ted
bec&se o' i%proper logic&l design &lso &''ect le&d ti%e &nd throghpt. >in&lly, & longer cycle
ti%e or & high percent&ge o' do$nti%e &t & cert&in $or"st&tion %&y cre&t & syste% bottlenec"
th&t c&ses del&ys &nd reslts in throghpt. <he design 'or si(/sig%& 41>SS5 %ethod is &pplied
to enh&nce the syste% design so th&t best per'or%&nce c&n be &chieved.
-&(&( !ro3lem-Sol4ing Simulation
Prodction &nd bsiness syste%s o'ten '&ce ch&llenges th&t &''ect their oper&tion &nd
per'or%&nce.<he i%p&ct o' sch ch&llenges v&ries 'ro% redced e''iciency or 're8ent del&ys &nd
'&ilres to %&Dor shtdo$ns &nd c&t&strophes. !ence, & big portion o' the $or" o' prodction
%&n&gers, syste% engineers, &nd oper&tions %&n&gers is o'ten 'ocsed on %onitoring the
syste% per'or%&nce, t&c"ling oper&tion&l proble%s, &nd &tte%pting to prevent 'tre proble%s. In
&ddition, %&ny o' these proble%s %&y be conclded 'ro% csto%er co%pl&ins, %&r"et 'eedb&c",
&nd &ct&l s&les n%bers.
1i&gnosing sch proble%s &nd providing the proper soltion is not &l$&ys & trivi&l t&s".
1i&gnostic &n&lysis, testing $h&t/i' scen&rios, &nd v&lid&ting the 'e&sibility o' proposed 'i(es &re
typic&lly re8ired. L&rios engineering &n&lyses th&t &re b&sed on &n&lytic&l %odeling or
engineering sense &re o'ten tili.ed to solve proble%s. ?(&%ples inclde inventory %odels,
8eing %odels, reli&bility %odels, '&ilre %ode &nd e''ect &n&lysis, root/c&se &n&lysis, '&lt/
tree &n&lysis, &nd so on. !o$ever, &s discssed in Ch&pter 7, the &ss%ptions &nd &n&lytic&l
li%it&tions o' sch tools li%it their &pplic&tion 'or solving proble%s o' consider&ble co%ple(ity.
1?S c&p&bilities provide & 'le(ible proble%/solving pl&t'or%. !ence, &s sho$n in >igre 6.7,
si%l&tion %odeling is tili.ed to per'or% the %&in proble%/solving techni8es o' di&gnosing
syste%s, testing oper&tion&l sche%es, &nd v&lid&ting prescribed soltions. <hese techni8es 'it
the obDective o' si(/sig%& 12AIC proDects.
Figure -&%# Proble% solving $ith si%l&tion.
As sho$n in >igre 6.7, solving proble%s $ith si%l&tion incldes proble% di&gnostic &nd
de'inition, testing soltion sche%es, &nd v&lid&ting proble% soltion.
). Proble% di&gnostic $ith si%l&tion is not &l$&ys &n e&sy t&s". It depends he&vily on the
credibility o' the %odel bilt. <he %odel h&s to re'lect the crrent syste% st&te 4inclding
the i%p&ct o' the proble%5. In so%e c&ses, the proble% %&y be 'ond $hile the %odel is
being bilt. <his is bec&se, &s discssed in Ch&pter 7, syste% strctre, l&yot, d&t&, &nd
logic &re e(plored thoroghly $hen bilding the %odel. Jnce the %odel is bilt, observing
the %odel per'or%&nce dring rn ti%e %&y &lso le&d to .oo%/in on the proble% or
proble% &re&. <he 8&lity o' &ni%&tion &nd gr&phic&l represent&tion o'ten pl&y & %&Dor
role in proble% di&gnostic by $&tching the %odel. In other c&ses it is necess&ry to per'or%
so%e tests, inserting so%e logic, or stdying the si%l&tion report in order to di&gnose the
sorce o' the proble%.
2. A'ter di&gnosing the proble%, si%l&tion c&n be sed to test & v&riety o' proble% soltion
sche%es. Sch sche%es &re o'ten tested sing $h&t/i' &n&lysis, $here the i%p&ct o' e&ch
sche%e on %odel per'or%&nce is tested &nd &n&ly.ed. <he %ost 'e&sible sche%e th&t
le&ds to & co%prehensive 'i( o' the proble% 4$ithot &dding &nother proble%5 is selected
&s & soltion to the proble% de'ined. 2odel 'le(ibility &nd e''iciency &llo$ 'or testing l&rge
n%ber o' soltion sche%es &nd rnning v&rios $h&t/i' scen&rios.
3. >in&lly, the vi&bility &nd robstness o' the soltion sche%e proposed 'or the nderlying
proble% is tested. Sensitivity &n&lysis c&n be sed to test soltion robstness to v&rios
sorces o' v&ri&tions. #ot &ll soltion sche%es &re &ble to 'nction properly $ith other
syste% ele%ents nder syste% constr&ints &nd $or" conditions. S%&ll v&ri&tions in sch
conditions %&y le&d to dr&stic ch&nges in syste% per'or%&nce. !ence, si%l&tion is sed
to test soltion sensitivity &nd robstness be'ore considering the soltion sche%e to be
'in&l.
-&(&* Continuous "mro4ement Simulation
It is o'ten &sserted th&t the sccess o' prodction &nd bsiness syste%s in sst&ining & cert&in
level o' per'or%&nce depends on e''ort in est&blishing &nd i%ple%enting pl&ns 'or continos
i%prove%ent. Co%p&nies do not &l$&ys $&it ntil & proble% &rises to t&"e correction &nd
i%prove%ent &ctions. 2&n&gers &nd engineers o'ten believe th&t there is &l$&ys & $indo$ 'or
i%prove%ent in the $&y th&t co%p&nies prodce prodcts or provide services.<hrogh this
$indo$, syste% %&n&gers &nd pl&nners o'ten 'oresee opportnities 'or %&"ing the syste% better
&nd %ore prep&red to '&ce 'tre ch&llenges. As discssed in Ch&pter 2, this %&tches the
philosophy o' le&n %&n'&ctring &nd le&n si(/sig%& 4;SS5 stdies. <he J&p&nese ter% Aai;en is
sed $idely to re'er to continos i%prove%ent %ethods &nd techni8es th&t co%p&nies 'ollo$ to
boost e''iciency &nd sst&in high per'or%&nce. !ence, continos i%prove%ent e''ort is o'ten
'ocsed on de'ining i%prove%ent opportnities, proposing i%prove%ent pl&ns, &nd testing the
v&lidity o' the i%prove%ent &ctions proposed.A lot o' those &ctions &rise 'ro% developing 'tre
oper&tion&l pl&ns 'or e(p&nsion &nd bsiness gro$th.
Jpportnities o' i%prove%ent c&n be de'ined by thin"ing o' better $&ys to do things,
br&instor%ing on cost &nd $&ste redction %e&sres, &nd bench%&r"ing co%petition. Si%l&tion
c&n be tili.ed to se&rch 'or sch opportnities &nd 'or testing di''erent i%prove%ent pl&ns. So%e
o' those pl&ns %&y not be 'e&sibleO hence, the si%l&tion c&n test pl&n 'e&sibility &nd &pplic&bility.
>in&lly, the %odel c&n be sed to v&lid&te the i%prove%ent pl&n selected &nd to chec" its
robstness &nd vi&bility. >igre 6.6 sho$s the tili.&tion o' si%l&tion in &iding the continos
i%prove%ent e''ort.
Figure -&,# Continos i%prove%ent $ith si%l&tion.
As sho$n in the 'igre, continos i%prove%ent $ith si%l&tion incldes de'ining opportnities,
testing i%prove%ent pl&ns, &nd v&lid&ting the pl&n selected.
). 1e'ining &n i%prove%ent opportnity c&n be &ppro&ched in di''erent $&ys. <hro$ing
ide&s 'or i%prove%ent into rotinely schedled %eetings, holding br&instor%ing sessions,
&nd bench%&r"ing co%petition &re e(&%ples o' techni8es &dopted to gener&te ide&s &nd
opportnities 'or i%prove%ent. !&ving & represent&tive si%l&tion %odel th&t c&n be
$&tched &nd &n&ly.ed by & continos i%prove%ent te&% c&n be bene'ici&l in this reg&rd.
Ch&nges sggested &nd ide&s r&ised by te&% %e%bers c&n be tested &nd ev&l&ted
8ic"ly &t virt&lly no cost.
2. A'ter & cert&in i%prove%ent opportnity is de'ined, it o'ten necess&ry to provide & pl&n
&nd %ech&nis% 'or &chieving the de'ined i%prove%ent. 1i''erent %ethods &nd techni8es
c&n be sed to i%prove per'or%&nce, ct cost, &nd redce $&ste. ;e&n %&n'&ctring
techni8es &re co%%only sed by engineers to &chieve i%prove%ent pl&ns. In le&n
%&n'&ctring, the 'ocs is on cost &nd $&ste redction, redcing %&n'&ctring le&d ti%e
&nd co%p&ny response ti%e, &nd incre&sing e8ip%ent &nd l&bor e''ectiveness.
Si%l&tion c&n &id in &pplying &nd testing the i%p&ct o' the i%prove%ent pl&ns proposed.
3. >in&lly, the vi&bility &nd robstness o' the i%prove%ent &ction or pl&n proposed is tested.
Sensitivity &n&lysis c&n be sed to test the pl&nEs robstness to v&rios sorces o'
v&ri&tions. -sing the si%l&tion %odel, i%prove%ent &ctions &re i%ple%ented &nd
per'or%&nce is ev&l&ted to 8&nti'y the i%prove%ent. <he sensitivity o' the pl&n to &
v&riety o' oper&ting conditions is then tested to %&"e sre th&t there no neg&tive i%p&ct
$ill occr on other syste% 'nctions &nd th&t the i%prove%ent level c&n be sst&ined.
H)I
We &lso sed critic&l/to/8&lity ch&r&cteristics 4C<Bs5 &s &n &ltern&tive si(/sig%& ter%inology.
-&* Systemati$ Simulation Aroa$h
<he &ppro&ch 'ollo$ed 'or &pplying e&ch o' the three c&tegories o' si%l&tion stdies discssed
in Section 6.2 h&s & speci'ic n&tre &nd re8ire%ents. >or the three c&tegories, ho$ever, $e c&n
'ollo$ & generic &nd syste%&tic &ppro&ch 'or &pplying & si%l&tion stdy e''ectively. <his
&ppro&ch consists o' co%%on st&ges 'or per'or%ing the si%l&tion stdy, &s sho$n in >igre 6.6.
Figure -&-# Syste%&tic si%l&tion &ppro&ch.
<he &ppro&ch sho$n in the 'igre is & typic&l engineering %ethodology 'or the three c&tegories o'
si%l&tion stdies 4i.e., syste% design, proble% solving, &nd syste% i%prove%ent5 th&t pts the
si%l&tion process into the conte(t o' engineering soltion %ethods. ?ngineers &nd si%l&tion
&n&lysts o'ten &dopt &nd se sch &n &ppro&ch i%plicitly in re&l/$orld si%l&tion stdies $ithot
strctring it into st&ges &nd steps. <he &ppro&ch is &n engineering %ethodology th&t consists o'
'ive iter&tive st&ges, &s sho$n in >igre 6.69 Identi'y the si%l&tion proble%, develop soltion
&ltern&tives, ev&l&te soltion &ltern&tives, select the best soltion &ltern&tive, &nd i%ple%ent the
soltion selected.
-&*&' "dentifi$ation of the !ro3lem or Oortunity
Any si%l&tion stdy shold st&rt by de'ining the proble% to be solved &nd &n&ly.ed throgh
si%l&tion. Syste% design, per'or%&nce, &nd i%prove%ent ch&llenge &re three types o'
si%l&tion proble%s. In continos i%prove%ent stdies, the proble% is vie$ed &s &n
i%prove%ent opportnity i' there is no speci'ic proble% to be solved.
<he si%l&tion proble% is de'ined in ter%s o' stdy scope, stdy obDectives, &nd %odel
&ss%ptions.
). 1e'ining the scope o' & si%l&tion stdy st&rts by describing the syste% strctre, logic,
&nd 'nction&lity. A process %&p or 'lo$ch&rt c&n be sed to de'ine the process strctre
&nd 'lo$. <he stdy scope &lso incldes & cle&r description o' the syste% proble% or
opportnity. 1escribing the ch&llenges, li%it&tions, &nd isses $ith the crrent st&te &nd
e(pl&ining $hy sch isses t&"e pl&ce provide the si%l&tion &n&lyst $ith & s&tis'&ctory
de'inition o' the si%l&tion proble%. I' possible, the proble% c&n be strctred
%&the%&tic&lly or by sing & sche%&tic di&gr&% to %&"e it e&sy 'or the &n&lyst to
nderst&nd v&rios &spects o' the proble%.
2. @&sed on the proble% scope, the si%l&tion stdy obDectives &re set &nd e(pressed in
the %ost concise $&y possible. <ogether $ith the over&ll obDective o' the stdy, $hich is
o'ten &i%ed &t solving the proble% th&t h&s been de'ined, the stdy sbobDectives provide
the criteri& &nd %ech&nis% 'or solving the proble%. >or e(&%ple, the over&ll obDective
%ight be to incre&se csto%er s&tis'&ction, &nd the speci'ic obDectives %ight be to redce
both csto%er $&iting ti%e &nd processing ti%e. It is &l$&ys better to de'ine 8&nti'i&ble
%etrics th&t %e&sre the obDectives th&t h&ve been de'ined.
3. 2odel &ss%ptions &re de'ined to n&rro$ do$n the scope o' the proble% &nd to sh&rpen
the stdy obDectives. 2odel &ss%ptions &lso help in directing %odel &n&lysis &nd in
selecting proper %ethods &nd techni8es to solve the proble% de'ined. 2ost %odel
&ss%ptions c&n be rel&ted to the srronding syste% conditions, the constr&ints on
syste% 'nction&lity, &nd the &v&il&bility o' %onet&ry &nd technic&l resorces. >or
e(&%ple, the pl&nt oper&ting p&ttern %ight be & restriction on its d&ily prodctivity. 2odel
&ss%ptions &re &lso 'ocsed on the sorce &nd type o' d&t& sed in the %odel, sch &s
reli&bility d&t&, processing ti%es, &nd decision/%&"ing rles. St&tistic&l %ethods &nd
distribtions &re &l$&ys tili.ed in this reg&rd.
-&*&( De4eloment of Solution and "mro4ement Alternati4es
Jnce & proble% or &n opportnity h&s been identi'ied, soltion &ltern&tives c&n be e(plored &nd
developed. Sch &ltern&tives &re e(plored by &n&ly.ing the proble% v&ri&bles, obDectives, &nd
constr&ints &nd &tte%pting to de'ine the p&r&%eter setp, the strctr&l ch&nges, or the logic&l
design necess&ry to %eet the proble% obDectives $ithot viol&ting its physic&l &nd logic&l
constr&ints. Soltion &ltern&tives &re then developed by strctring the set o' %ethods &nd
&ctions $ithin e&ch &ltern&tive e(plored. It is i%port&nt to p&y &ttention to the $&y in $hich $e
present the set o' soltion &ltern&tives th&t h&s been developed. <he &n&lyst shold be &ble to
pinpoint the di''erences &%ong soltion &ltern&tives. <&bles, gr&phs, &nd s%%&ry sheets c&n be
sed to present &nd co%p&re the soltion &ltern&tives developed.
). 1e'ining the set o' soltion &ltern&tives is &ppro&ched by e(ploring the soltion do%&in
&nd listing the potenti&l soltion %ethods. In &ddition to & thorogh nderst&nding &nd
solid e(perience in the nderlying syste%, & co%bin&tion o' cre&tivity &nd engineering
s"ills is re8ired to gener&te & set o' soltion &ltern&tives. @r&instor%ing sessions &nd
ide&/gener&ting techni8es c&n be sed in this reg&rd in & %&nner si%il&r to th&t sed 'or
gener&ted i%prove%ent ide&s. With si%l&tion, ho$ever, soltion ide&s c&n be gener&ted
in & %ch e&sier $&y. @y providing & close/to/re&lity represent&tion o' the syste%, the
%odel c&n be sed to observe the syste%Es dyn&%ic beh&vior, pro%ote ide& gener&tion,
&nd predict the per'or%&nce 'or e&ch ide& gener&ted.
2. ?(ploring the soltion do%&in o' the nderlying proble% o'ten le&ds to de'ining & set o'
potenti&l soltion ide&s. <hose ide&s &re tr&ns'or%ed into & set o' soltion &ltern&tives by
strctring e&ch ide& in ter%s o' & %ethod &nd & set o' &ctions &nd ch&nges. <he
'e&sibility o' e&ch ide& is chec"ed &nd v&lid&ted in the process o' developing the set o'
soltion &ltern&tives. ?&ch 'e&sible soltion ide& is pt in ter%s o' & concise &nd speci'ic
pl&n th&t is &i%ed &t %&"ing the ch&nge re8ired to eli%in&te the proble% or to i%prove
syste% per'or%&nce. Strctring &n ide& into & soltion &ltern&tive re8ires "no$ledge in
engineering syste%s, represent&tion %ethods, &nd best pr&ctices.
-&*&* E4aluation of Solution Alternati4es
In this st&ge, the set o' soltion &ltern&tives selected &re ev&l&ted b&sed on the obDectives
de'ined, &nd soltion &ltern&tives &re r&n"ed &ccordingly. ?v&l&ting soltion &ltern&tives is
essenti&l to co%p&re their per'or%&nce &nd %&"e it e&sier 'or decision %&"ers to select the best
soltion &ltern&tive. ?v&l&ting soltion &ltern&tives incldes de'ining & set o' per'or%&nce criteri&
&nd ev&l&ting e&ch soltion &ltern&tive 'or the set o' criteri& de'ined. Si%l&tion pl&ys & pri%&ry
role in per'or%&nce ev&l&tion nder co%ple(, dyn&%ic, &nd stoch&stic beh&vior o' re&l/$orld
syste%s.
). 1e'ining & set o' per'or%&nce criteri& incldes providing the proper 8&ntit&tive %etrics
th&t %e&sre &n &spect o' the syste% per'or%&nce. <his incldes %onet&ry criteri& sch
&s cost, pro'it, &nd r&te o' retrn, &s $ell &s technic&l &nd oper&tion&l criteri& sch &s
throghpt, e''ectiveness, &nd delivery speed. <his %&y &lso inclde so%e sociotechnic&l
criteri& th&t %&y be di''iclt to %e&sre, sch &s &ppe&l, rept&tion, &nd csto%er
s&tis'&ction. It is i%port&nt to select, &s %ch &s possible, & set o' %e&sr&ble criteri& th&t
c&n be &ssessed sing the si%l&tion %odel &nd c&n be sed &s & b&sis to co%p&re
soltion &ltern&tives. In &ddition to the si%l&tion c&p&bility o' 'le(ible progr&%%ing, %odel
conters, t&llies, &nd st&tistics provide the &n&lyst $ith & v&riety o' techni8es to %e&sre
per'or%&nce criteri&. So%e o' those criteri&, sch &s throghpt, le&d ti%e, &nd inventory
level, c&n be t&"en &t & syste% level. Jthers, sch &s tili.&tion, e''ectiveness, &nd
reli&bility, c&n be t&"en &t the process or oper&tion level. >in&lly, so%e o' the %e&sres,
sch &s 8&lity, cost, &nd n%ber o' nits processed, c&n be rel&ted to the syste% entity.
2. Jnce the set o' per'or%&nce %e&sres &re de'ined, & si%l&tion %odel c&n be sed to
ev&l&te the set o' soltion &ltern&tives. ?&ch si%l&tion/b&sed ev&l&tion provides & set
o' per'or%&nce %e&sres. Soltion &ltern&tives &re then co%p&red &nd the &ltern&tive
$ith the best per'or%&nce is selected. <he si%l&tion %odel is set to 8&nti'y co%p&rison
criteri& 4& set o' per'or%&nce %e&sres5 $ithot the need 'or & closed/'or% de'inition o'
e&ch %odel response. >or e(&%ple, in & %&n'&ctring syste% %odel, syste% throghpt
is & 'nction o' b''er si.es, %&chine cycle ti%es &nd reli&bility, conveyor speeds, &nd so
on. It %&y not be possible &n&lytic&lly to provide & closed/'or% de'inition o' the throghpt
'nction. !o$ever, r&ndo%ness o'ten co%bines the response sign&ls o' si%l&tion
%odels. L&ri&bility enco%p&ssed in the si%l&tion %odel le&ds to v&ri&bility in the %odel
otco%e. !ence, the stoch&stic n&tre o' si%l&tion otco%es shold be inclded in &n
&ltern&tive co%p&rison. 2ltiple si%l&tion replic&tions &re o'ten sed to re'lect v&ri&bility
in %odel otco%es, &nd st&tistic&l %e&sres sch &s otpt %e&ns, v&ri&nces, &nd
con'idence interv&ls &re co%pted to represent sch v&ri&bility.
-&*&% Sele$tion of the Best Alternati4e
In this st&ge, the best soltion or i%prove%ent &ltern&tive is selected b&sed on the si%l&tion
ev&l&tion in the preceding step. <he best soltion in ter%s o' v&les o' per'or%&nce %e&sres is
selected by co%p&ring its over&ll per'or%&nce to the rest o' the soltion &ltern&tives. Co%p&ring
the per'or%&nce o' soltion &ltern&tives b&sed on %ltiple obDectives, ho$ever, is not &n e&sy
t&s".
Selecting the best soltion &ltern&tive is & decision/%&"ing process th&t is b&sed on &n
over&rching &ssess%ent o' soltion &ltern&tives. I' the co%p&rison is %&de b&sed on & single
obDective, the &ltern&tive $ith best per'or%&nce is selected. When %ltiple per'or%&nce
%e&sres &re sed, %lticriteri& decision %&"ing 42C125 is re8ired to &ssess soltion
&ltern&tives b&sed on %ltiple decision criteri&. I' one &ltern&tive do%in&tes other &ltern&tives 'or
&ll per'or%&nce criteri&, the nondo%in&ted soltion is selected. Jther$ise, 2C12 techni8es
sch &s go&l progr&%%ing &nd &n&lytic&l hier&rchy process &re sed to spport the %lticriteri&
decision. Sch %ethods &re b&sed on both sbDective &nd obDective Ddg%ents o' & decision
%&"er or grop o' e(perts in $eighting decision criteri& &nd r&n"ing soltion &ltern&tives. An
over&ll tility 'nction Ho'ten re'erred to &s & %lti&ttribte tility 'nction 42A->5I is developed by
co%bining criteri& $eights &nd per'or%&nce ev&l&tion. 2A-> is sed to provide &n over&rching
tility score to r&n" soltion &ltern&tives.
St&tistic&l co%p&r&tive &n&lysis &nd hypothesis testing &re &lso sed to co%p&re soltion
&ltern&tives. It is $orth %entioning, ho$ever, th&t other '&ctors th&t %&y not be ev&l&ted sing
the si%l&tion %odel, sch &s econo%ic&l '&ctors, s&'ety, &nd environ%ent&l concerns, &re o'ten
inclded in the selection process. <he soltion selected is then reco%%ended 'or i%ple%ent&tion
in the re&l/$orld syste% &s & design 'or & ne$ syste%, &s & soltion to &n e(isting proble%, or &s
&n i%prove%ent pl&n 'or &n e(isting syste%.
-&*&, "mlementation of the Alternati4e Sele$ted
>in&lly, the soltion &ltern&tive selected is considered 'or i%ple%ent&tion. 1epending on the
n&tre o' the proble%, i%ple%ent&tion prep&r&tions &re o'ten t&"en prior to the &ct&l
constrction&l ch&nges on the 'loor. ;i"e &ny other proDect, i%ple%enting the soltion
reco%%ended by the si%l&tion stdy is per'or%ed into ph&ses. ProDect %&n&ge%ent techni8es
&re o'ten sed to strctre the ti%e 'r&%e 'or the e(ection pl&n &nd to &lloc&te the resorces
re8ired. Althogh so%e o' the p&r&%eters &nd logic reco%%ended by the si%l&tion %&y be
&ltered dring the inst&ll&tion st&ge, the %odel c&n still be sed &s & tool 'or giding the
i%ple%ent&tion process &t its v&rios st&ges. 2ilestone %eetings 'or progress revie$s c&n
bene'it 'ro% si%l&tion reslts &nd si%l&tion &ni%&tion o' the syste% strctre.
-&% Stes "n A Simulation Study
In this section $e present & procedre 'or condcting si%l&tion stdies in ter%s o' & step/by/
step &ppro&ch 'or de'ining the si%l&tion proble%, bilding the si%l&tion %odel, &nd condcting
si%l&tion e(peri%ents. <his procedre is & det&iled tr&nsl&tion o' the syste%&tic si%l&tion
&ppro&ch presented in >igre 6.6. >igre 6.* is & 'lo$ch&rt o' the step/by/step si%l&tion
procedre.
Figure -&.# <he si%l&tion procedre.
<he si%l&tion syste%&tic &ppro&ch sho$n in >igre 6.* represents the engineering 'r&%e$or" o'
the si%l&tion stdy. <he steps %&y v&ry 'ro% one &n&lyst to &nother bec&se o' '&ctors sch &s
the n&tre o' the proble% &nd the si%l&tion so't$&re sed. !o$ever, the bilding bloc"s o' the
si%l&tion procedre &re typic&lly co%%on &%ong si%l&tion stdies.
<he si%l&tion procedre, o'ten represented by & 'lo$ch&rt, consists o' the ele%ents &nd the
logic&l se8ence o' the si%l&tion stdy. It &lso incldes decision points throgh $hich the
concept &nd %odel &re chec"ed, v&lid&ted, &nd veri'ied. Iter&tive steps %&y be necess&ry to
&dDst &nd %odi'y the %odel concept &nd logic. >in&lly, the procedre sho$s steps th&t c&n be
e(ected in p&r&llel $ith other steps.
-&%&' !ro3lem Formulation
<he si%l&tion stdy shold st&rt $ith & concise de'inition &nd st&te%ent o' the nderlying
proble%. <he proble% st&te%ent incldes & description o' the sit&tion or the syste% o' the stdy
&nd the proble% th&t needs to be solved. >or%l&ting the proble% in ter%s o' &n over&ll go&l &nd
& set o' constr&ints provides & better represent&tion o' the proble% st&te%ent. A thorogh
nderst&nding o' the ele%ents &nd strctre o' the syste% nder stdy o'ten helps in developing
the proble% st&te%ent.
>or%l&ting & design proble% incldes st&ting the over&ll design obDective &nd the constr&ints on
the design process. >or e(&%ple, the go&l %ight be to design & %&teri&l/h&ndling syste% th&t is
c&p&ble o' tr&ns'erring & cert&in ite% 'ro% point A to point @. <he constr&ints on the design
process %&y inclde cert&in throghpt re8ire%ents, bdget li%it&tions, nit lo&d c&p&city,
inclin&tion &nd declin&tion re8ire%ents, &nd so on. <hs, the design proble% is 'or%l&ted sch
th&t the go&l de'ined is %et $ithot viol&ting &ny o' the constr&ints. -nli"e line&r progr&%%ing,
ho$ever, in si%l&tion there is no need to e(press the proble% go&l &nd constr&ints
%&the%&tic&lly. @oth &re %odeled sing di''erent ele%ents &nd resorces o' 1?S.
Si%il&rly, 'or%l&ting & proble% in &n e(isting syste% incldes st&ting the over&ll proble%/solving
obDective &nd the constr&ints on the soltion proposed. >or e(&%ple, the proble% %ight be
identi'ied &s & redction in syste% throghpt by & cert&in percent&ge. !ence, the si%l&tion go&l
is set to boost the syste% throghpt to re&ch & cert&in t&rget. <he constr&ints on the soltion
proposed %&y inclde the li%ited c&p&city o' $or"st&tions, conveyor speeds, n%ber o'
oper&tors, prodct %i(, &nd bdget li%it&tion, &%ong others. <hs, the proble% is 'or%l&ted
sch th&t the go&l de'ined is %et $ithot viol&ting &ny o' the constr&ints.
>in&lly, the 'or%l&tion o' &n i%prove%ent proble% %&y inclde st&ting the over&ll i%prove%ent
obDective in ter%s o' %ltiple &nd o'ten co%peting go&ls $hile %eeting process constr&ints. >or
e(&%ple, the 'irst go&l %ight be to redce the %&n'&ctring le&d ti%e by & cert&in percent&ge in
order to &pply le&n %&n'&ctring principles, &nd the second go&l, to inclde %eeting cert&in
throghpt re8ire%ents. @oth types o' go&ls &re o'ten sbDect to & si%il&r set o' process
constr&ints, sch &s bdget li%it&tions, v&ri&tions in %&n'&ctring oper&tions, &nd 'lo$
re8ire%ents. <hs, the i%prove%ent proble% is 'or%l&ted sch th&t the t$o go&ls &re %et
$ithot viol&ting &ny o' the constr&ints th&t h&ve been de'ined.
-&%&( Setting Study O3<e$ti4es
@&sed on the proble% 'or%l&tion, & set o' obDectives c&n be set to the si%l&tion stdy. Sch
obDectives represent the criteri& throgh $hich the over&ll go&l o' the stdy is &chieved. Stdy
obDectives si%ply indic&te 8estions th&t shold be &ns$ered by the si%l&tion stdy. ?(&%ples
inclde deter%ining crrent/st&te per'or%&nce, testing design &ltern&tives, stdying the i%p&ct o'
speeding p the %&inline conveyor, &nd opti%i.ing the n%ber o' c&rriers in & %&teri&l/h&ndling
syste%.
Speci'ying stdy obDectives serves v&rios prposes. >irst, $e c&n decide i' si%l&tion is the best
tool to se to solve the nderlying proble%. 1o $e h&ve enogh d&t& to deter%ine %etrics 'or the
obDectives th&t h&ve been de'inedK C&n $e se &n&lytic&l %ethods to &ns$er the 8estions th&t
h&ve been r&isedK Is the so't$&re tool c&p&ble o' presenting &nd &n&ly.ing stdy re8ire%ents
so th&t the stdy obDectives &re &chievedK <hese types o' 8estions c&n be better &ns$ered by
st&ting the obDectives o' the si%l&tion stdy n&%bigosly.
In ter%s o' %odeling, %odel ele%ents &nd %odel logic &re selected &nd designed to provide
&ppropri&te %e&sres o' per'or%&nce th&t 8&nti'y the stdy obDectives. >or e(&%ple, to %eet
stdy obDectives, &n &cc%l&ting conveyor is sed &s & %&teri&l/h&ndling syste%. Also, st&tistics
th&t represent throghpt, le&d ti%e, del&ys, &nd n%ber o' c&rriers &re inserted into the %odel
over ti%e to &cc%l&te the d&t& re8ired &t the end o' the rn. Speci'ying stdy obDectives
provides & cle&r vision 'or &n&ly.ing %odel otpts so th&t the 8estions r&ised &re &ns$ered by
the si%l&tion report.
-&%&* Con$etual )odeling
1eveloping & concept&l %odel is the process throgh $hich the %odeler &bstr&cts the strctre,
'nction&lity, &nd essenti&l 'e&tres o' & re&l/$orld syste% into & strctr&l &nd logic&l
represent&tion th&t is tr&ns'er&ble into & si%l&tion %odel. <he %odel concept c&n be & si%ple or
& co%ple( gr&phic&l represent&tion, sch &s & bloc" di&gr&%, & 'lo$ch&rt, or & process %&p th&t
depicts "ey ch&r&cteristics o' the si%l&ted syste%, sch &s inpts, ele%ents, p&r&%eters, logic,
'lo$, &nd otpts. Sch & represent&tion shold event&lly be progr&%%&ble &nd tr&ns'er&ble
into & si%l&tion %odel sing &v&il&ble si%l&tion so't$&re tools. <hs, & sccess'l %odel
concept is one th&t t&"es into consider&tion the %ethod o' tr&ns'erring e&ch &bstr&cted
ch&r&cteristic, bilding e&ch %odel ele%ent, &nd progr&%%ing the concept&l logic sing the
so't$&re tool.
<he &rt o' concept&l %odeling is & co%bin&tion o' syste% "no$ledge &nd %odel/bilding s"ills.
<he %odeler st&rts by & est&blishing & thorogh nderst&nding o' the syste%, $hether it is & ne$
or &n e(isting syste%. <he %odeler stdies syste% inpts, ele%ents, strctre, logic, 'lo$, &nd
otpts &nd &bstr&cts the over&ll strctre &nd the interrel&tionships o' strctre ele%ents into &
concept&l %odel.
<he %odel concept is presented considering the co%ponents &nd c&p&bilities o' the si%l&tion
environ%ent. >or e(&%ple, developing & concept th&t incldes & po$er/&nd/'ree conveyor syste%
shold 'ind ot i' there is & c&p&bility 'or %odeling sch & syste% in the si%l&tion so't$&re tool
being sed. Pey p&r&%eters o' syste% ele%ents &re &lso speci'ied &s & p&rt o' the %odel
concept. >or e(&%ple, the concept o' sing & convey&nce syste% to tr&ns'er entities 'ro% point A
to point @ shold inclde p&r&%eters o' conveyor type, speed, reli&bility, &nd c&p&city. Sch
p&r&%eters gide d&t& collection &nd ele%ent selection.
>in&lly, the %odel concept is developed t&"ing into consider&tion the proble% &s it $&s
'or%l&ted &nd the obDectives o' the si%l&tion stdy. >igre 6.+ sho$s the re8ire%ents 'or
concept&l %odeling.
Figure -&/# 1eveloping & %odel concept.
-&%&% Data Colle$tion
Si%l&tion %odels &re d&t&/driven co%pter progr&%s th&t receive inpt d&t&, e(ecte the logic
designed, &nd prodce cert&in otpts. !ence, the d&t& collection step is & "ey co%ponent o' &ny
si%l&tion stdy. Si%l&tion d&t& c&n, ho$ever, be collected in p&r&llel to bilding & %odel sing
the si%l&tion so't$&re. <his is reco%%ended since d&t& collection %&y be ti%e cons%ing in
so%e c&ses, &nd bilding the %odel strctre &nd designing %odel logic c&n be independent o'
the %odel d&t&. 1e'&lt p&r&%eters &nd generic d&t& c&n be sed initi&lly ntil the syste% d&t&
&re collected.
<he 8&lity o' d&t& sed in the %odels drives the over&ll %odel 8&lity &nd v&lidity &nd &''ects the
&ccr&cy o' the %odel reslts &nd st&tistics collected. !ence, the ter% gar'age,in,gar'age,out
4GIGJ5 is o'ten co%%on in %odeling. >or & %odel to be represent&tive, it h&s to be driven by
represent&tive d&t& in ter%s o' d&t& integrity, &ccr&cy, &nd co%prehensiveness.
1&t& ele%ents re8ired 'or constrcting & si%l&tion %odel &re o'ten deter%ined b&sed on the
%odel concept, %odel strctre, &nd the n&tre &nd type o' %odel otco%es &nd st&tistics to be
collected. >or e(&%ple, typic&l d&t& collected 'or %odeling & b&n" oper&tion inclde csto%er
inter&rriv&l ti%es &nd the service ti%e distribtion.
1epending on the n&tre o' the si%l&tion stdy, %odel d&t& &re collected by revie$ing historic&l
d&t&, by observing &nd %onitoring syste% oper&tions, &nd by sing bench%&r" d&t&
&ss%ptions. <he three types o' d&t& collected in %odel develop%ent &re sho$n in >igre 6.,.
Figure -&0# Collecting %odel d&t&.
!istoric&l d&t& &re o'ten sed $hen %odeling e(isting syste%s th&t h&ve been in oper&tion 'or &
cert&in ti%e. ?(&%ples o' historic&l d&t& inclde &ct&l prodction d&t&, %&inten&nce d&t&,
inventory records, csto%er 'eedb&c"s, &nd $ee"ly &nd %onthly reports on oper&tions
per'or%&nce. St&tistic&l %ethods o' inpt %odeling 4discssed brie'ly in Appendi( A5, sch &s
descriptive st&tistics, re%oving otliers, &nd 'itting d&t& distribtions pl&y &n i%port&nt role in
&n&ly.ing historic&l d&t&.
In c&se historic&l d&t& &re not &v&il&ble 'or & s''icient period o' ti%e, the &ct&l per'or%&nce o'
syste% c&n be observed to collect pertinent d&t&. <i%e stdies sing & stop$&tch &re co%%on
d&t& collection %ethods in this reg&rd. A ti%e stdy ses & st&nd&rd 'or% to collect d&t& &nd
st&rts by %onitoring syste% beh&vior. Syste% %onitoring incldes $&tching the oper&tion o' &
cert&in syste% ele%ent, nderst&nding its 'nction&lity, &nd deciding on the p&r&%eters to be
collected &nd the ti%es o' collecting d&t&. <he d&t& collected shold be st&tistic&lly represent&tive
&nd shold be distribted to cover the entire spectr% o' syste% oper&tion. Selecting the
&ppropri&te s&%ple si.e &nd ti%es o' observ&tions &re t&"en is essenti&l to obt&in represent&tive
d&t&.
>in&lly, $hen no historic&l d&t& &re &v&il&ble &nd it is not per%issible to collect d&t& sing ti%e
stdies, si%l&tion d&t& %&y be bench%&r"ed or &ss%ed. ?dc&ted gesses, bench%&r" d&t&,
&nd theoretic&l st&tistic&l %odels c&n be sed to develop the d&t& re8ired 'or si%l&tion. <his
o'ten occrs $hen %odeling ne$ syste%s &nd testing proposed design &ltern&tives. ?(perience
in both %odeling &nd syste% &n&lysis o'ten e8ips the si%l&tion &n&lyst $ith the "no$ledge &nd
s"ill th&t is essenti&l to provide edc&ted gesses o' & v&riety o' %odel d&t&. 1&t& 'ro% & si%il&r
bsiness or %&n'&ctring process c&n be sed in the %odel, &t le&st &s & st&rting point. >in&lly,
theoretic&l st&tistic&l distribtions $ith esti%&ted p&r&%eters c&n be sed 'or %odel d&t&. All
types o' &ss%ed d&t& &re sbDect to %odi'ic&tion &nd &lter&tion &s the %odel bilding
progresses &nd %ore insight is g&ined into %odel beh&vior.
!nput Modeling <he p&rt o' si%l&tion concerned $ith selecting proper d&t& represent&tion 'or
deter%inistic %odel p&r&%eters &nd stoch&stic %odel v&ri&bles is re'erred to &s input modeling.
1eter%inistic %odel d&t& &re typic&lly e&sier to predict &nd set since their v&les $ill be 'i(ed in
the %odel over the rn ti%e. ?(&%ples inclde const&nt de%&nd, schedled deliveries, 'i(ed
cycle ti%es, 'i(ed b''er c&p&city, &nd const&nt n%ber o' l&bor or %&chine resorces. L&les 'or
these p&r&%eters &re 'i(ed initi&lly i' "no$n 'or cert&in or c&n be vie$ed &s decision or design
v&ri&bles 4control '&ctors5 th&t &re set to their opti%% levels throgh e(peri%ent&l design or
opti%i.&tion %ethods.
Stoch&stic %odel inpts, on the other h&nd, c&n be vie$ed &s noise 4r&ndo%5 '&ctors th&t ch&nge
over ti%e r&ndo%ly or &ccording to cert&in prob&bility distribtions. Jver the si%l&tion rn
period, v&les 'or these v&ri&bles &re s&%pled 'ro% theoretic&l or e%piric&l prob&bility
distribtions. !ence, it is 'irst re8ired to 'it & cert&in prob&bility distribtion to the d&t& collected,
insert into the %odel the distribtion selected, &nd sing the s&%pling %ech&nis% discssed in
Ch&pter 6, gener&te s&%ples o' the v&ri&ble over the rn ti%e. I' v&les ch&nge r&ndo%ly,
ni'or% r&ndo% n%bers c&n be sed to gener&te v&les 'or the v&ri&ble. As discssed e&rlier, in
&ddition to the v&ri&bility o' &d&ption over the rn ti%e, di''erent r&ndo% n%ber stre&%s o'ten
reslt in di''erent sets o' d&t& s&%pled, $hich le&ds to stoch&stic v&ri&bility in %odel otco%es.
!ence, %ltiple si%l&tion replic&tions &re o'ten sed to esti%&te e&ch %odel per'or%&nce
%e&sre in ter%s o' & %e&n &nd & v&ri&nce.
2&ny st&tistic&l %ethods &re typic&lly sed 'or %odeling si%l&tion inpts. !o$ever, the b&sic
concept in these %ethods is si%ple. I' $e co%pte the %e&n o' & s&%ple o' 20 n%bers, the
v&le obt&ined $ill gener&lly be %ch di''erent 'ro% the popl&tion %e&n 4i.e., the s&%pling
distribtion is not & good &ppro(i%&tion o' the d&t& distribtion5. @t i' $e s&%pled %&ny sets o'
20 n%bers over &nd over &g&in, co%pted the %e&n 'or e&ch set, &nd constrcted & rel&tive
're8ency distribtion o' &ll sets, $e $old event&lly 'ind th&t the distribtion o' %e&ns is & very
good &ppro(i%&tion to the s&%pling distribtion. <he s&%pling distribtion o' the %e&n is &
theoretic&l distribtion th&t is &ppro&ched &s the n%ber o' s&%ples in the rel&tive 're8ency
distribtion incre&ses. As the n%ber o' s&%ples &ppro&ches in'inity, the rel&tive 're8ency
distribtion o' &ct&l d&t& &ppro&ches the s&%pling distribtion in the si%l&tion %odel.
<he s&%pling distribtion o' the %e&n 'or & cert&in s&%ple si.e is Dst &n e(&%pleO there is &
di''erent s&%pling distribtion 'or other s&%ple si.es.<here &re &lso & n%ber o' st&tistic&l tests
designed to &ssess $hether & given distribtion describes & d&t& set '&ith'lly. Althogh inpt
%odeling c&n be &ppro&ched di''erently, & generic procedre 'or inpt %odeling 4'itting d&t&
collected to prob&bility distribtions5 c&n be developed. <his procedre is &lso bilt in &s &
%odle in %&ny si%l&tion p&c"&ges. <he procedre incldes the 'ollo$ing steps9
Step B3 Plot the d&t&.
o -se & histogr&% &nd s%%&ry st&tistics to deter%ine the gener&l ch&r&cteristics
o' the nderlying distribtion.
Step 23 Select & '&%ily o' distribtions.
o -se the reslts o' step B to select & set o' Fre&son&bleA distribtions.
o >it e&ch distribtion to the d&t& observed &nd esti%&te the distribtion
p&r&%eters.
Step <3 Select the best distribtion.
o 1eter%ine $hich o' the 'itted distribtions best represents the d&t& observed
sing one or %ore &ppropri&te st&tistics.
Step @3 Chec" the distribtion 8&lity.
o 1eter%ine the distribtion goodness o' 'it9
Chi/s8&re test
Pol%ogorovCS%irnov test
AndersonC1&rling test
2&ny si%l&tion boo"s inclde & det&iled description o' co%%on prob&bility distribtions in
si%l&tion stdies. 42&ny o' these &re discssed in Appendi( A5, $hich incldes & s%%&ry o'
p&r&%eters, &pplic&tions, &nd gr&phic&l represent&tions o' prob&bility distribtions th&t &re
co%%only sed in conDnction $ith si%l&tion. Si%l&tion boo"s &lso provide sggestions 'or
selecting prob&bility distribtions 'or di''erent d&t& sit&tions. <&ble 6.) presents & s%%&ry o'
so%e co%%only sed distribtions in si%l&tion stdies o' v&rios d&t& sit&tions in
%&n'&ctring &pplic&tions.
+a3le -&'# Summary of Commonly :sed Distri3utions in Simulation Studies
Jpen t&ble &s spre&dsheet
Simulation 9aria3le !ro3a3ility
Distri3ution
=ey Distri3ution !arameters
2&chine cycle ti%e -ni'or%
<ri&ngl&r
4%in.,%&(.5
4%in.,%&(.,%ode5
Speed 'or conveyor,&to%&ted -ni'or% 4%in.,%&(.5
+a3le -&'# Summary of Commonly :sed Distri3utions in Simulation Studies
Jpen t&ble &s spre&dsheet
Simulation 9aria3le !ro3a3ility
Distri3ution
=ey Distri3ution !arameters
gided vehicle 4AGL5,
'or" trc",etc.
<r&vel ti%e 'or AGL, 'or" trc",etc. <ri&ngl&r
;ognor%&l
4%in.,%&(.,%ode5
4%e&n,st&nd&rd devi&tion5
1o$nti%e 4ti%e to rep&ir5 <ri&ngl&r 4%in.,%&(.,%ode5
-pti%e 4ti%e bet$een '&ilres5 ?rl&ng
?(ponenti&l
4%e&n, A C 35
T ):2<@>
Scr&p r&te @ino%i&l Q scr&pped
Inter&rriv&l ti%e ?rl&ng
?(ponenti&l
;ognor%&l
4%e&n, A T 25
T ):2<@A
4%e&n,st&nd&rd devi&tion5
P&rt type &ssign%ent @ino%i&l
?%piric&l discrete
Q prodct %i(
Q A,Q @,etc.
-&%&, )odel Building
1&t& collection &nd %odel bilding o'ten cons%e the %&Dority o' the ti%e re8ired 'or co%pletion
o' & si%l&tion proDect. <o redce sch ti%e, the %odeler shold st&rt bilding the si%l&tion
%odel $hile d&t& &re being collected. <he concept&l %odel c&n be sed to constrct the
co%pter %odel sing &ss%ed d&t& ntil the d&t& collected beco%e &v&il&ble. <he overl&p
bet$een %odel bilding &nd d&t& collection does not &''ect the logic&l se8ence o' the si%l&tion
procedre. Constrcting %odel co%ponents, entity 'lo$, &nd logic depends %ostly on the %odel
concept &nd is in %ost c&ses independent o' %odel d&t&. Jnce the %odel is re&dy, %odel inpt
d&t& &nd p&r&%eter settings c&n be inserted into the %odel l&ter. Also, since & l&rge portion o' &
si%l&tion stdy is o'ten spent in collecting %odel d&t&, bilding the %odel si%lt&neosly
redces signi'ic&ntly the over&ll dr&tion o' the si%l&tion stdy &nd provides %ore ti%e 'or %odel
&n&lysis &nd e(peri%ent&tion.
<here is no st&nd&rd procedre 'or bilding & si%l&tion %odel. <he procedre is o'ten b&sed on
the %odeler &ppro&ch &nd on the si%l&tion so't$&re tool sed. !o$ever, & generic procedre
'or bilding & si%l&tion %odel e''ectively is e(pected to inclde "ey b&sic steps. <his procedre
is sho$n in >igre 6.)0.
Figure -&'1# 2odel/bilding procedre.
<he %odel/bilding procedre st&rts by i%porting & co%pter/&ided design 4CA15 'ile o' the
syste% l&yot. <he CA1 'ile is & t$o/ or three/di%ension&l l&yot 'ile developed in &ny
co%%erci&l dr&'ting &nd design so't$&re tool. Althogh the l&yot h&s no i%p&ct on %odel
per'or%&nce, it is & se'l gr&phic&l represent&tion o' the syste% th&t provides re&listic syste%
&ni%&tion, especi&lly & three/di%ension&l l&yot. @ec&se o' the l&rge si.e o' three/di%ension&l
'iles, %ost si%l&tion %odels &re bilt on & t$o/di%ension&l l&yot, $hich provides loc&tions &nd
sp&ces 'or v&rios syste% ele%ents, sch &s %&chines, pieces o' e8ip%ent, conveyors,
stor&ge, &nd lo&dingCnlo&ding dec"s. It &lso provides & physic&l re'erence to the entity 'lo$ by
sho$ing physic&l syste% ele%ents sch &s &isles, $&l"$&ys, $&lls, e%pty sp&ces, &nd o''ices.
<hs, $hen rnning the %odel, the entity 'lo$ $ithin di''erent %odel ele%ents $ill %&tch the 'lo$
o' p&rts or csto%ers in the re&l/$orld syste%.
1i''erent %odel ele%ents &nd co%ponents &re bilt sing the set o' %odles or bilding bloc"s
de'ined in the si%l&tion so't$&re tool sed. ?(&%ples inclde resorces or %&chines, 8ees or
b''ers, conveyors, &nd lo&ds or p&rts. 2ost si%l&tion tools h&ve bilt/in, re&dy/to/se, &nd
dr&g/&nd/drop %odles o' sch co%ponents $ith so%e gr&phic&l represent&tion. Constrcting &
%odel co%ponent incldes selecting the si%l&tion ele%ent th&t best represents the co%ponent
&nd loc&ting the ele%ent on its &ct&l loc&tions in the syste%Es CA1 l&yot. At this st&ge, %odel
ele%ents &re not rel&ted to e&ch other.
?le%ent interrel&tionships, decision points, &nd entity 'lo$ &re de'ined by developing the %odel
logic. 1epending on the si%l&tion tool sed, the %odel logic c&n be developed by de'ining in &nd
ot roting rles &t e&ch si%l&tion ele%ent, the %odel logic c&n be $ritten &nd debgged in &
cert&in editing environ%ent, or the t$o %&y be co%bined. Althogh %ost ne$ si%l&tion so't$&re
tools strive to redce the progr&%%ing e''ort, $riting code is still necess&ry to i%ple%ent the
%odel logic.
Jnce the %odel logic is developed, $e st&rt rnning the %odel. !o$ever, the %odel per'or%&nce
&nd reslts %&y not re'lect the beh&vior o' the syste% o' interest $ithot inserting represent&tive
d&t& into the %odel &nd setting the p&r&%eters o' v&rios syste% co%ponents. Sch d&t& shold
be collected $hile the 'irst three steps in the %odel/bilding procedre &re being e(ected. As the
%odel d&t& beco%e &v&il&ble, $e st&rt inserting the d&t& in the %odel 'ollo$ing the instrctions
sggested by the si%l&tion tool sed. Gener&lly, this is &n e&sy &nd 8ic" step in the %odel/
bilding procedre.
<he l&st step in bilding & si%l&tion %odel is to &dd the &ni%&tion &nd gr&phic&l represent&tions
o' %odel co%ple%ents &nd the srronding environ%ent. <ypic&l e(&%ples inclde developing
&ni%&tion th&t re'lects & pl&nt environ%ent, & b&n"ing syste%, & rest&r&nt, or others. Althogh
&ni%&tion does not re&lly &dd to the 8&lity o' the si%l&tion reslts, it helps gre&tly in %odel
v&lid&tion &nd veri'ic&tion. It is &lso & gre&t selling &nd present&tion tool, especi&lly i' developed
$ith three/di%ension&l gr&phics. So%e si%l&tion environ%ents &llo$ 'or only t$o/ or 2U/
di%ension&l gr&phic&l represent&tion. In &ddition to providing & gr&phics editing environ%ent,
si%l&tion so't$&re tools inclde libr&ries o' re&dy/to/se gr&phics th&t sit di''erent syste%s
si%l&ted 'or both %&n'&ctring &nd service &pplic&tions.
-&%&- )odel 9erifi$ation
2odel veri'ic&tion is the 8&lity control chec" th&t is &pplied to the si%l&tion %odel bilt. ;i"e &ny
other co%pter progr&%, the si%l&tion %odel shold per'or% b&sed on the intended logic&l
design sed in bilding the %odel. Althogh, %odel logic c&n be de'ined sing di''erent %ethods
&nd c&n be i%ple%ented sing di''erent progr&%%ing techni8es, e(ection o' the logic $hen
rnning the %odel shold re'lect the initi&l design o' the progr&%%er or %odeler. 1i''erent
%ethods &re sed 'or debgging logic&l 4progr&%%ing5 errors &s $ell &s errors in inptting d&t&
&nd setting %odel p&r&%eters. Corrected potenti&l code &nd d&t& discrep&ncies shold &l$&ys be
veri'ied by c&re'l observ&tion o' ch&nges in %odel beh&vior.
<o veri'y & %odel, $e si%ply chec" $hether the %odel is doing $h&t it is spposed to do. >or
e(&%ple, does the %odel re&d the inpt d&t& properlyK 1oes the %odel send the right p&rt to the
right pl&ceK 1oes the %odel i%ple%ent the prodction schedle prescribedK 1o csto%ers in the
%odel 'ollo$ the 8eing discipline proposedK 1oes the %odel provide the right otptK And so
on. Jther veri'ic&tion techni8es inclde &pplying rles o' co%%on sense, $&tching the %odel
&ni%&tion periodic&lly dring rn ti%e, e(&%ining %odel otpts, &nd &s"ing &nother %odeler to
revie$ the %odel &nd chec" its beh&vior. <he observ&tions %&de by other &n&lysts &re v&l&ble
since the %odel bilder $ill be %ore 'ocsed on the progr&%%ing det&ils &nd less 'ocsed on the
i%plic&tion o' di''erent progr&%%ing ele%ents. When the %odel logic is co%ple(, %ore th&n one
si%l&tion &n&lyst %&y h&ve to $or" on bilding the %odel.
-&%&. )odel 9alidation
2odel v&lid&tion is the process o' chec"ing the &ccr&cy o' the %odel represent&tion to the re&l/
$orld syste% th&t h&s been si%l&ted. It is si%ply &bot &ns$ering the 'ollo$ing 8estion9 1oes
the %odel beh&ve si%il&rly to the si%l&ted syste%K Since the %odel $ill be sed to repl&ce the
&ct&l syste% in e(peri%ent&l design &nd per'or%&nce &n&lysis, c&n $e rely in its represent&tion
o' the &ct&l syste%K
Pno$ing th&t the %odel is only &n &ppro(i%&tion o' the re&l/$orld syste%, "ey ch&r&cteristics o'
&ct&l syste% beh&vior shold be c&ptred in the %odel, especi&lly those rel&ted to co%p&ring
&ltern&tives, dr&$ing in'erences, &nd %&"ing decisions. !ence, necess&ry ch&nges &nd
c&libr&tions th&t &re %&de to the %odel to better represent the &ct&l syste% shold be retrned
to the %odel concept. <he %odel concept represents the %odelerEs &bstr&ction o' the re&l/$orld
syste% strctre &nd logic. <hs, i' the %odel $ere not 'lly v&lid, the %odel concept needs to be
enh&nced &nd then tr&nsl&ted into the si%l&tion %odel.
Sever&l techni8es &re s&lly 'ollo$ed by %odelers to chec" the v&lidity o' the %odel be'ore
sing it 'or sch prposes. ?(&%ples inclde chec"ing the d&t& sed in the %odel &nd co%p&ring
the% to the &ct&l syste% d&t&, v&lid&ting the %odel logic in ter%s o' 'lo$, se8ence, roting,
decisions, schedling, &nd so on, vis/V/vis the re&l/$orld syste%, &nd %&tching the reslts o' the
%odel st&tistics to those o' &ct&l syste% per'or%&nce %e&sres.
Cross/v&lid&tion sing &ct&l syste% reslts &nd rnning cert&in $h&t/i' scen&rios c&n &lso be
sed to chec" %odel v&lidity. >or e(&%ple, l&st ye&rEs throghpt d&t& c&n sed be to v&lid&te the
throghpt n%ber prodced by the %odel 'or the s&%e dr&tion &nd nder si%il&r conditions.
We c&n &lso doble the cycle ti%e o' & cert&in oper&tion &nd see i' the syste% throghpt
prodced is &''ected &ccordingly or i' the %&n'&ctring le&d ti%e d&t& re'lect this incre&se in
cycle ti%e.
-&%&/ )odel Analysis
>(?

!&ving & veri'ied &nd v&lid&ted si%l&tion %odel provides &n&lysts $ith & gre&t opportnity since
it provides & 'le(ible pl&t'or% on $hich to rn e(peri%ents &nd to &pply v&rios types o'
engineering &n&lyses e''ectively. With the l&test &dv&nces in co%pter speed &nd c&p&city, even
l&rge/sc&le si%l&tion %odels o' intensive gr&phics c&n be rn 'or sever&l replic&tions in &
rel&tively short ti%e. !ence, it t&"es only & 'e$ %intes to rn %ltiple si%l&tion replic&tions 'or
long periods o' ti%e in %ost si%l&tion environ%ents.
As sho$n in >igre 6.)), %odel &n&lysis o'ten incldes st&tistic&l &n&lysis, e(peri%ent&l design,
&nd opti%i.&tion se&rch. <he obDective o' sch %ethods is to &n&ly.e the per'or%&nce o' the
si%l&tion %odel, co%p&re the per'or%&nce o' proposed design &ltern&tives, &nd provide the
%odel strctre &nd p&r&%eter setting th&t $ill le&d to the best level o' per'or%&nce. St&tistic&l
&n&lyses inclde representing per'or%&nce $ith descriptive st&tistics sch &s %e&n, v&ri&nce,
&nd con'idence interv&ls. It &lso incldes per'or%ing v&rios st&tistic&l tests 'or hypothesis testing
&nd co%p&r&tive &n&lysis. ?(peri%ent&l design $ith si%l&tion incldes condcting & p&rti&l or
'll '&ctori&l design o' e(peri%ents to provide the best settings to %odel control v&ri&bles. >in&lly,
se&rch &lgorith%s inclde the &pplic&tion o' opti%i.&tion se&rch %ethods sch &s e(h&stive
se&rch, genetic &lgorith%, si%l&tion &nne&ling, &nd t&b se&rch to opti%i.e &n obDective
'nction.
Figure -&''# Continos i%prove%ent $ith si%l&tion.
<he speed &nd 'le(ibility o' the si%l&tion %odel &lso '&cilit&te condcting e(peri%ent&l design
&nd rnning opti%i.&tion &lgorith%s. Also, the &v&il&bility o' di''erent %ethods &nd &n&lyses in
co%%erci&l si%l&tion so't$&re tools '&cilit&tes the se o' otpt &n&lyses. 2ost 'll versions o'
si%l&tion p&c"&ges &re e8ipped $ith %odles 'or st&tistic&l &n&lyses &nd &dd/ins o'
e(peri%ent&l design &nd opti%i.&tion %ethods.
-&%&0 Study Do$umentation
<he 'in&l step in & si%l&tion stdy is to doc%ent the stdy &nd report its reslts. Proper
doc%ent&tion is crci&l to the sccess o' & si%l&tion stdy. <he si%l&tion process o'ten
incldes co%%nic&ting $ith %&ny sides, $riting co%ple( logic, encontering enor%os &%onts
o' d&t&, condcting e(tensive e(peri%ent&tion, &nd going throgh sever&l progress revie$s &nd
%ilestones. <hs, $ithot proper doc%ent&tion, the &n&lyst loses tr&c" o' &nd control over the
stdy &nd c&nnot deliver the re8ired in'or%&tion or %eet the stdy e(pect&tions. <his o'ten
reslts in &n in&ccr&te si%l&tion %odel $ith poor reslts, in&bility to Dsti'y %odel beh&vior &nd
e(pl&in %odel reslts, &nd loss o' othersE con'idence in stdy 'indings &nd reco%%end&tions.
1oc%enting the si%l&tion stdy is the develop%ent o' & stdy 'ile th&t incldes the det&ils o'
e&ch si%l&tion step. Co%prehensive doc%ent&tion o' & si%l&tion stdy co%prises three %&in
ele%ents9 det&iled doc%ent&tion o' the si%l&tion %odel, the develop%ent o' &n engineering
si%l&tion report, &nd the present&tion o' si%l&tion reslts to csto%ers &nd p&rtners o' the
si%l&tion proDect. >igre 6.)2 presents the three ele%ents o' doc%enting & si%l&tion stdy.
Figure -&'(# 1oc%enting & si%l&tion stdy.
<he 'irst ele%ent in doc%enting & si%l&tion stdy incldes doc%ent&tion o' the si%l&tion
%odel. <his incldes doc%enting both the concept %odel &nd the si%l&tion progr&%. <he
doc%ent&tion o' the %odel concept incldes doc%enting the syste% process %&p, 'lo$ch&rts,
bloc" di&gr&%s, &nd s"etches th&t e(pl&in the %odel concept, %odel ele%ents, %odeling
&ppro&ch, &nd %odel logic&l design. Si%l&tion %odel doc%ent&tion incldes & description o'
%odel strctre, progr&% det&ils &nd 'lo$ch&rts, code &nd e(pl&n&tion o' rotines sing $ithin/
code co%%ents &nd notes, &nd &n e(pl&n&tion o' the schedling &nd se8encing rles, roting
rles, &nd the decision/%&"ing process 'ollo$ed &t decision points $ithin the %odel. 2odel
reporting &lso incldes & st&te%ent o' %odel &ss%ptions &nd & description o' %odel inpts &nd
otpts. @y revie$ing sch doc%ents, $e shold be &ble to nderst&nd ho$ the %odel re&ds
inpts, processes the logic, ses &v&il&ble si%l&tion ele%ents, &nd provides the re8ired
otpts. Sch doc%ent&tion '&cilit&tes %&"ing %odel ch&nges, e(pl&ining the d&t& sed in the
%odel, debgging code &nd logic, nderst&nding %odel beh&vior, &nd interpreting %odel reslts.
<he %&Dor deliver&ble o' the si%l&tion stdy is the develop%ent o' & si%l&tion report. <his
incldes & 'or%&l engineering report &nd spple%ent&ry %&teri&ls o' the si%l&tion process.
Sch & report constittes the co%%nic&tion %edi% bet$een the si%l&tion &n&lyst &nd the
other p&rties involved in the si%l&tion stdy. So%e o' those p&rties %&y not even see the %odel
or t&l" to the si%l&tion &n&lystO hence, the report shold be co%prehensive, n&%bigos, &nd
nderst&nd&ble by people o' v&rios s"ills &nd b&c"gronds.
<he ele%ents o' & 'or%&l si%l&tion report inclde & description o' the nderlying syste%,
'or%l&tion o' the si%l&tion proble%, & st&te%ent o' stdy obDectives &nd &ss%ptions, sorces
o' %odel d&t&, & description o' the %odel strctre, &nd & s%%&ry o' si%l&tion reslts, 'indings,
conclsions, &nd reco%%end&tions. Spple%ent&ry %&teri&ls inclde the d&t& inpts sed,
syste% &nd %odel gr&phs, s"etches &nd dr&$ings, det&ils o' e(peri%ent&l design &nd otpt
&n&lysis, &nd & printot o' si%l&tion reslts. It is &lso co%%on &%ong si%l&tion engineers to
provide & one/p&ge s%%&ry o' "ey in'or%&tion provided by the si%l&tion stdy. <his type o'
e(ective revie$ provides concise &nd 'ocsed in'or%&tion 'or those decision %&"ers, %&n&gers,
&nd 'ir% e(ectives $ho %&y not be interested in the det&ils o' %odel inpts, strctre, &nd
reslts &n&lysis. A si%l&tion report incldes the 'ollo$ing ele%ents9
). <he Syste% @eing Si%l&ted
&. @&c"grond
b. Syste% description
c. Syste% design
2. <he Si%l&tion Proble%
&. Proble% 'or%l&tion
b. Proble% &ss%ptions
c. Stdy obDectives
3. <he Si%l&tion 2odel
&. 2odel strctre
b. 2odel inpts
c. 2odel &ss%ptions
7. Si%l&tion 0eslts
&. 0eslts s%%&ry
b. 0eslts &n&lysis
6. Stdy Conclsion
&. Stdy 'inding
b. Stdy reco%%end&tions
6. Stdy Spple%ents
&. 1r&$ings &nd gr&phs
b. Inpt d&t&
c. Jtpt d&t&
d. ?(peri%ent&l design
e. Jthers
<he si%l&tion stdy is o'ten conclded by presenting the si%l&tion reslts to csto%ers,
%&n&gers, &nd other p&rties to the si%l&tion proDect. Sch & present&tion o'ten incldes &
s%%&ry o' the si%l&tion reslts 4s%%&ry o' stdy steps, reslts &nd 'indings, conclsions,
&nd reco%%end&tions5. <he present&tion shold inclde rnning &ni%&tions, %ovies, or
sn&pshots o' the si%l&tion %odel in & v&riety o' sit&tions. Sch &ni%&tions help e(pl&in the
stdy reslts &nd &id the &n&lyst in selling the design proposed, co%p&ring design &ltern&tives,
&nd secring %&n&ge%ent spport throgh proposed soltions &nd pl&ns o' &ction. <he
co%%nic&tion &nd present&tion s"ills o' the si%l&tion &n&lyst pl&y & %&Dor role in developing &
sccess'l present&tion &nd g&ining %&n&geri&l spport to i%ple%ent the reco%%end&tions o'
the si%l&tion proDect.
H2I
We provide 'rther insight on &n&ly.ing si%l&tion otpts in Ch&pter * &nd Appendi( A.
-&, Examle# Alying +he Simulation !ro$ess +o A Hosital
Emergen$y Room
In this section $e &pply the si%l&tion process to &n e%ergency roo% 4?05 si%l&tion. <he %&in
obDective here is to se si%l&tion to stdy the ?0 syste%, i%prove the ?0 oper&tion by redcing
tot&l ti%e in the syste%, &nd predict the e''ect o' ch&nges on long/ter% per'or%&nce. ?0
si%l&tion stdy re8ire%ents inclde the 'ollo$ing9
Identi'ying %e&sre%ent points necess&ry 'or syste% ev&l&tion
Selecting &nd &pplying the &ppropri&te si%l&tion &ppro&ches &nd techni8es to
represent the syste% processes
Identi'ying ?0 oper&tion&l $e&" points &nd bottlenec"s
Sggesting i%prove%ents to the crrent sit&tion
Constrcting & represent&tion o' the ?0 syste% con'igr&tion proposed
Leri'ying the syste% proposed
#R Process Description As depicted in >igre 6.)3, the ?0 e(&%ple consists o' three st&tions9
the tri&ge st&tion, $here p&tients record their n&%es &nd 'ill ot the tri&ge 'or%O the reception
st&tion, $here the st&tion &ttend&nt enters their d&t& into & co%pter &nd cre&tes %edic&l 'iles 'or
ne$ p&tientsO &nd the tre&t%ent roo%, 'or physici&n di&gnosis. I' & p&tient needs 'rther
tre&t%ent, he or she $ill be sent to & speci&list doctor 4i.e., internist, c&rdiologist, gynecologist,
ophth&l%ologist, etc.5 >or serios %edic&l e%ergencies 4i.e., &ccidents, he&rt &tt&c"s,
p&rtritions, etc.5, p&tients &re tre&ted directly by doctors $ithot p&ssing throgh the tri&ge &nd
d&t&/entry st&tions.
Figure -&'*# Concept&l %odel o' the ?0 e(&%ple.
An ?0 syste% c&n be vie$ed &s & 8eing syste% $ith & single ch&nnel 4i.e., &d%ission,
tre&t%ent, rele&se5. <he p&tient 'lo$ $ithin the ?0 is se8enti&l &nd c&n be co%bined into & one/
stop service in order to &pply the 'or%l&s o' the single/server 8eing %odel. In pr&ctice,
ho$ever, di''erent ?0 resorces provide service &t di''erent loc&tions.
<he ?0 is not & typic&l 'irst/in/'irst/served syste%O the ?0 oper&tes sing speci'ic rles to rote
p&tients. <he priority 'or & p&tient to enter the ?0 depends on his or her %edic&l c&se &nd the ris"
involved in %&"ing the p&tient $&it. Althogh %ore co%ple( 8eing %odels 4e.g., & net$or" o'
8ees5 c&n be sed to &ppro(i%&te the syste%, si%l&tion $ill be & better &ltern&tive, given the
stdy re8ire%ents %entioned. <he syste% c&n still be described by the r&te o' p&tient &rriv&ls
&nd the service %ech&nis%, $hich incldes the 'ollo$ing three st&ges9
). P&ssing by tri&ge
2. ?ntering & p&tientEs rel&ted d&t& in co%pter records
3. Physic&l tre&t%ent
In the ?0 1?S %odel, t$o %&in events c&se &n inst&nt&neos ch&nge in the st&te o' the ?0
syste%9
). <he entry o' & p&tient into the syste% 4p&tient &rriv&l5
2. <he rele&se o' & p&tient pon co%pletion o' tre&t%ent 4p&tient dep&rtre5
@&sed on in'or%&tion obt&ined 'ro% sbDect %&tter e(perts, observ&tion, &nd historic&l d&t&, the
'ollo$ing logic governs the 'lo$ o' p&tients in the ?09
<he order o' tre&t%ent priority is high ris", %edi% ris", &nd nor%&l c&ses, respectively.
?0 p&tients &re cl&ssi'ied &s 'ollo$s9
o Ris5y case3 & prob&bility o' 70Q
o :edium,ris5 case3 & prob&bility o' 30Q
o .ormal case3 & prob&bility o' 30Q
When & ris"y c&se &rrives &t the ?0, it does not p&ss throgh the tri&ge or d&t&/entry
st&gesO the person is tre&ted directly by & physici&n.
When & %edi%/ris" c&se &rrives, the person p&sses throgh tri&ge bt does not p&ss
throgh the d&t&/entry &re&.
When & nor%&l c&se &rrives, the person %st p&ss throgh &ll three st&ges9 tri&ge, d&t&
entry, &nd tre&t%ent.
Jne physici&n c&n tre&t p to t$o p&tients in the e%ergency roo%.
P&tients le&ving the e%ergency roo% &re roted &s 'ollo$s9
o <hose $ho $ill le&ve the hospit&l9 & percent&ge o' 70Q
o Those 4ho 4ill continue the treatment in other specialist units in the hospital3 &
percent&ge o' 60Q
Data Collection and !nput Modeling A'ter getting per%ission 'ro% the hospit&l &d%inistr&tion,
the proDect te&% st&rted their $or" by observing the sit&tion in the ?0 &nd collecting pertinent
d&t&, inclding conting the 8ee o' p&tients, %e&sring the service ti%e &t v&rios process
st&ges &nd the inter/&rriv&l ti%e o' p&tients, tr&c"ing p&tient 'lo$, &nd so on. Also, historic&l d&t&
'ro% the ?0 $ere revie$ed &nd s%%&ri.ed.
<he te&% $&s '&ced $ith & l&c" o' historic&l d&t& 4records o' p&tient &rriv&ls &nd service
dr&tions5 essenti&l to esti%&ting the service &nd inter&rriv&l ti%es. <hs, it $&s decided to collect
d&t& sing & stop$&tch. Pertinent d&t& 'or 6, s&%ples 4p&tients5 $ere collected. <&ble 6.2
s%%&ri.es the d&t& collected in ter%s o' p&tient &rriv&l ti%es &nd the ti%e 'or end o' service &t
the three ?0 st&tions. -sing the d&t& collected, v&les &re esti%&ted 'or e&ch p&tientEs inter&rriv&l
&nd service ti%es &t the three ?0 st&tions.
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33 +96* +96, ,900 ,906 )+ 2 ) 6
37 ,906 ,906 ,936 ,970 + ) 30 6
36 ,90* ,90+ ,9)6 ,92) 2 ) + 7
36 ,970 ,97) )0900 )0920 33 ) ), 20
3* ,960 ,96) )0920 )0930 )0 ) 2, )0
3+ ,966 ,966 )0930 ))900 6 ) 37 30
3, )090
0
)090) )0970 ))900 6 ) 3, 20
70 )090
0
)090) )0960 ))970 0 ) 7, 60
7) )09)
0
)09)) )09)2 ))900 )0 ) ) 7+
72 )093
6
)0936 )0970 ))920 26 ) 7 70
73 )093
6
)0936 )097) ))900 0 ) 6 ),
77 )097
0
)097) )0976 ))930 6 ) 7 76
76 )096
6
)0966 )096+ )29)0 )6 ) 2 *2
76 ))90
0
))906 ))9)0 )2930 6 6 6 +0
7* ))9) ))9)6 ))920 )2900 )6 ) 7 70
+a3le -&(# ER Data Colle$ted
Jpen t&ble &s spre&dsheet
!atie
nt
@um3
er
+im
e of
Arri
4al
at
+ria
ge
5'6
+ime of
Arri4al
at
Re$eti
on 5(6
+ime of
Startin
g the
+reatm
ent
+ime of
!atient
Deart
ure 5*6
+ime
Bet7e
en
Arri4a
ls
5min6
Ser4i
$e
+ime
'
5min6
Ser4i
$e
+ime
(
5min6
Ser4i$
e
+ime
*
5min6
6
7+ ))93
0
))93) ))936 )2900 )6 ) 7 26
7, ))97
0
))97) ))976 )3900 )0 ) 7 *6
60 ))97
0
))97) ))960 )3900 0 ) , *0
6) ))97
6
))976 ))97+ )29)0 6 ) 2 22
62 ))97
6
))976 ))966 )2920 0 ) , 26
63 )290
0
)290) )29)0 )2970 )6 ) , 30
67 )29)
0
)29)) )2920 )39)6 )0 ) , 66
66 )393
0
)393) )3937 )7900 +0 ) 3 26
66 )397
0
)397) )7900 )79)6 )0 ) ), )6
6* )790
0
)790) )7920 )7930 20 ) ), )0
6+ )790
6
)7906 )79)0 )6900 6 ) 7 60
6, )692
0
792) )6930 )*9)0 )26 ) , 70
<o 'it d&t& collected to their corresponding st&tistic&l distribtions, the inpt %odeling %odle in
&n A0?#A si%l&tion p&c"&ge $&s sed. <&ble 6.3 s%%&ri.es the reslts 'or inter&rriv&l ti%es.
+a3le -&*# Fitting Data Colle$ted to Statisti$al Distri3utions
>a?

Jpen t&ble &s spre&dsheet
Patients Interarri-al Time
1istribtion s%%&ry Goodness o' 'it9
1istribtion9e(ponenti&l
?(pression9 C0.00) S ?WPJ4)7.65
S8&re error90.002,06
1&t& s%%&ry
#%ber o' d&t& points T 6,
2in.d&t& v&le T 0
2&(.d&t& v&le T )26
S&%ple %e&n T )7.6
S&%ple std.dev. T 2).2
Chi/s8&re test
#%ber o' interv&ls T2
1egrees o' 'reedo% T 0
<est st&tistic T 0.)67
Corresponding p/v&le X 0.006
Ser-ice Time at the Triage Station
1istribtion s%%&ry
1istribtion9lognor%&l
?(pression90.6 S ;JG#40.667,0.37*5
S8&re error90.0)307*
1&t& s%%&ry
#%ber o' d&t& points T 6,
2in.d&t& v&le T )
2&(.d&t& v&le T 6
S&%ple %e&n T ).22
S&%ple std.dev. T 0.+32
Goodness o' 'it9
Chi/s8&re test
#%ber o' interv&ls T 2
1egrees o' 'reedo% T /)
<est st&tistic T 6.72
Corresponding p/v&le X 0.006
Ser-ice Time at the Registration Station
1istribtion s%%&ry
1istribtion9lognor%&l
?(pression90.6 S ;JG#4+.),,)2.*5
S8&re error90.07766*
1&t& s%%&ry
#%ber o' d&t& points T 6,
2in.d&t& v&le T )
2&(.d&t& v&le T 7,
S&%ple %e&n T +.76
S&%ple std.dev. T ,.,6
Goodness o' 'it9
Chi/s8&re test
#%ber o' interv&ls T *
1egrees o' 'reedo% T 7
<est st&tistic T )6.,
Corresponding p/v&le X 0.006
Ser-ice Time at the Treatment Station
1istribtion s%%&ry
1istribtion9Weibll
?(pression92 S W?I@4)6.+,0.675
S8&re error90.00)6,2
1&t& s%%&ry
#%ber o' d&t& points T 37
2in.d&t& v&le T 2
2&(.d&t& v&le T )2*
S&%ple %e&n T 23.)
S&%ple std.dev. T 2+.*
Goodness o' 'it9
Chi/s8&re test
#%ber o' interv&ls T 2
1egrees o' 'reedo% T C)
<est st&tistic T 0.)22
Corresponding p/v&le X 0.006
H&I
See Appendi( A 'or &ddition&l st&tistic&l sbst&nce.
Model $uilding% &erification% and &alidation -sing Ato2od si%l&tion so't$&re, the b&se
%odel is bilt &s sho$n in the Ato2od &ni%&tion sho$n in >igre 6.)7. <he %odel logic $&s 'irst
veri'ied &nd the %odel beh&vior $&s v&lid&ted sing the d&t& collected &nd observ&tions o' ?0
sbDect %&tter e(perts. Ato2od %odel ele%ents sed inclde9
Figure -&'%# Ato2od &ni%&tion o' the ?0 %odel.
ntity3 p&tients
/ttri'utes3 he&lth 4cl&ssi'ic&tion o' ?0 p&tients5
/cti-ity3 tre&t%ent
2ogenous e-ent3 &rriv&l o' p&tients
ndogenous e-ent3 co%pletion o' tre&t%ent 4dep&rtre o' p&tients5
State -aria'le3 n%ber o' p&tients $&iting, n%ber o' bsy doctors, etc.
Model Results <he %odel is set to rn )0 d&ys continosly 4270 hors, &ss%ing th&t the ?0
oper&tes three shi'ts & d&y5 &'ter & $&r%/p period o' + hors. As sho$n 'ro% the 8ee st&tistics
in >igre 6.)6, & tot&l o' )00) p&tients $ere tre&ted &t the ?0, o' $hich 3*3 p&tients $ere
cl&ssi'ied &s serios. A tot&l o' 62+ p&tients $ent throgh the three ?0 st&tions, st&rting $ith
tri&ge. <he &ver&ge ?0 p&tient spent &bot 662 seconds $&iting, &bot )22 seconds &t tri&ge,
&bot *,0 seconds &t the reception registr&tion, &nd &bot 2**2 seconds in tre&t%ent. <he
&ver&ge tot&l ti%e/in/syste% is &bot 3677 seconds.
Figure -&',# S%%&ry o' Ato2od 8ee st&tistics.
>igre 6.)6 sho$s the Ato2od s%%&ry o' resorce st&tistics. <he %odel is set to se one
resorce 4teller5 'or reception, one 'or co%pter d&t& entry, &nd & high n%ber o' resorces 'or
physici&ns since the n%ber o' physici&ns sed &t &ny point is b&sed on the n%ber o' p&tients
in the ?0 roo%. -tili.&tion is & "ey resorce st&tistic th&t c&n be sed in directing ?0
i%prove%ent &ctions.
Figure -&'-# S%%&ry o' Ato2od resorce st&tistics.
@&sed on %odel observ&tions &nd %odel st&tistics, the 'ollo$ing %e&sres $ere t&"en to i%prove
?0 oper&tions. I%prove%ent e''orts &re 'ocsed on redcing p&tient $&iting ti%e be'ore service,
registr&tion ti%e, &nd $&iting 'or tre&t%ent ti%e. <his $ill signi'ic&ntly redce the over&ll ti%e
spent in the syste%. Jther %e&sres &re &i%ed &t incre&sing the e''ectiveness o' ?0 oper&tions
by opti%i.ing the n%ber o' physici&ns &nd incre&sing the tili.&tion o' reception &nd tri&ge
resorces. Jther %icro %e&sres c&n &lso t&"e pl&ce to i%prove $or" procedres, especi&lly 'or
prep&ring p&tient 'iles &nd entering p&tient in'or%&tion.
>ollo$ing is & s%%&ry o' ?0 i%prove%ent &ctions9
<he long ti%e spent in the reception st&ge $&s redced 'irst since & long $&iting ti%e
%&y &''ect p&tient he&lth neg&tively 4i.e., %&y convert it 'ro% nor%&l or %edi% to
serios5. <he reception &nd registr&tion ti%e is i%proved by developing & %ore e''ective
$or" procedre 'or prep&ring p&tient 'iles &nd entering p&tient in'or%&tion. A ti%e &nd
%otion stdy $&s reco%%ended 'or this prpose. An integr&ted hospit&l d&t&b&se o'ten
provides & sbst&nti&l ti%e s&ving in this reg&rd.
<i%e spent $hile p&tients $&it 'or physici&ns &t the tre&t%ent st&tion $&s redced by
ch&nging the rle o' Fone doctor to t$o p&tientsA &nd &llo$ing the i%%edi&te &ssign%ent o'
&nother &v&il&ble doctor to the second p&tient.
<he 'in&l n%ber o' physici&n resorces is set to three b&sed on the tili.&tion o'
physici&n resorces 4see >igre 6.)65.
<he tri&ge &nd registr&tion resorces $ere co%bined, de to lo$ tili.&tion o' the tri&ge
resorce.
Ch&nges in the tot&l ti%e/in/syste% $ere observed throgh & con'ir%&tion si%l&tion rn $ith 'ive
replic&tions, &s sho$n in >igre 6.)*. <he ne$ &ver&ge ti%e/in/syste% is 2*32 seconds.
Co%p&red to &n &ver&ge ti%e/in/syste% o' 3677 seconds in the initi&l ?0 %odel, i%prove%ent
&ctions reslted in &bot & 26Q redction in &ver&ge p&tient ti%e/in/syste%.
Figure -&'.# >ive replic&tions o' the ?0 ti%e/in/syste%.
-&- Summary
In this ch&pter $e presented & det&iled description o' the si%l&tion process, inclding the det&ils
o' si%l&tion procedres 'or proDect scoping, d&t& collecting, %odel bilding, %odel &n&lyses, &nd
%odel doc%ent&tion. <his process is l&ter integr&ted into the si(/sig%& proDect ch&rter in the 3S/
;SS &nd 3S/1>SS &ppro&ches.