Confidence Intervals

If we know that each member of the population has

probability p of having a certain characteristic, we
can use the CLT theorem to study the distribution
of a sample mean.

What if we don't know p, all we have is our data

from the sample. We want to make an estimate of
p, and give some margin of error. This is
essentially what a confidence interval is.

or a prescribed level of confidence !less than

"##$%, we want to determine a range for which we
are T&'T confident the true population probability
(p) is within the range.

Confidence Intervals, cont.

*sually we want a fairly high confidence level+

,-$, .-$ or ..$ are common, but really any
percentage less than "## is possible. The larger
the confidence, the wider the interval.

The more sure we are of the confidence interval,

the less precise it is.
estimate
Confidence interval
/argin of
error
/argin of
error

Confidence Interval for 0roportion

p is the population proportion !of a certain

characteristic%

To find a C$ confidence interval, we need to

know the 12score of the central C$ in a
standard2normal distribution. Call this '1'

3ur confidence interval is p41567!p%

p is the sample proportion

67!p%89!p!"2p%:n
; ;
; ;

< values for some CIs

or your reference, these could be useful+

Confidence
$
= standard
deviations !1%
-#$ #.>,??.
,-$ "."-#@-
.#$ ".>??A-
.-$ "..-..>
.,$ B.",##.
..$ B.-,-A@
....$ @.B.#-@
To calculate, use
invCorm!CI D !"2CI%:B%
e.g. for ,-$ confidence,
invCorm!.,- D !"2.,-%:B%
8invCorm!.,-D .B-:B%
8invCorm!.A,-%

7Eample+ Fad 'pples
Gou want to give a .-$ confidence interval of how
many apples in a given orchard are bad this year. 3f
all harvested apples, you randomly test "### apples
and find @- of them are bad.

p estimate is p8.#@-, so H8..>-

6I!p%89!.#@-5..>-:"###%8.##-A

The middle .-$ is within "..> sds

3ur confidence interval is .#@-4"..>5.##-A, i.e.

between and .0236 and .0464

We are 95% confident that in this orchard between

2.36% and 4.64% of apples are bad.
;
;
;

/argin of 7rror

Fased on a certain $ confidence interval, the

amount we add:subtract from our estimate is
the margin of error.

In the previous eEample, the margin of error

was "..>5.##-A8.#""@>A which is "."@>A$

or C$ confidence, /7
C
81
C
9!pH:n%

7Eample+ /argin of 7rror
' poll of ">-? adults asked whether they have
ever bobbed for apples. ,>$ said (Ges.)
or .@$ confidence, what is the margin of
errorJ

To find the 12score for the central .@$,

remember that ,$ is in the tails, @.-$ in the
upper tail and @.-$ in the lower tail. 6o
invCorm!..>-%8".A"B is our 1

/7
.@$
8 19!pH:n% 8".A"B59!.,>5.B?:">-?%
8.#".#@, or "..#@$

7Eample+ /argin of 7rror
' poll of ">-? adults asked whether they have
ever bobbed for apples. ,>$ said (Ges.)
What is the margin of error for ..$ confidenceJ

6imilarly, the 1 value for central ..$ is

invCorm!...-%8B.-,>

/7
..$
8B.-,>5.#"#-#"8.#B,#- or B.,#-$

As confidence level of the interval

increases so does the margin of error!

7Eample+ Ietermine 6ample 6i1e
for given Confidence K /7
It is estimated that ?@$ of adults B-2@- sing in
the shower. We want to see if this is true for
adults @- and older. &ow many do we need to
sample to have a margin of error of -$ at a
.#$ confidence level.

/7819!pH:n%, 1 for .#$ confidence is ".>??A-

.#-8".>??A-9!.?@5.-,%:9n

6o 9n8".>??A-9!.?@5.-,%:.#- 8 ">.BA>-

6o n8">.BA>-
B
8B>-.B-, so we need B>> people
sampled !round up to the neEt whole person%

Iecreasing /argin of 7rror by
increasing n

or C$ confidence, /7
C
81
C
9!pH:n%

If we increase the sample si1e, the margin of

error goes down, but at a rate of the sHuare root
of the change in (n).

To halve /7, we need to "#adr#ple $%4& the

sample si1e

To get '('0
th
the /7, we need to increase
sample si1e to be '00 times as large

Ietermine CI from /argin of 7rror

Gou can use the formula /7

C
81
C
9!pH:n% to give
you the confidence level, because you can
determine 1
C
, and from that figure out the
confidence level.

Iivide both sides by 9!pH:n% to give you+

1
C
8/7
C
:9!pH:n%

Then Confidence level is found+

normalcdf!21
C
, 1
C
%
)*
+
*
+

7Eample+ 'pproval Lating
The results of a poll of >-> random citi1ens give
the mayor's approval rating at >,$ with a ?$
margin of error. &ow confident are we that the
city2wide approval is between >@$ and ,"$J

18.#?:9!.>,5.@@:>->%8B.",AA

normalcdf!2B.",AA, B.",AA% 8 ..,#>-

6o the poll used a .,.#>-$ confidence level.