1

I HC NNG
TRNG I HC S PHM
--- ---











BI GING MN

QUY HOCH THC NGHIM

(CC PHNG PHP THNG K X L S LIU
THC NGHIM)










Ngi son: Giang Th Kim Lin











Nng, 2009
2
Chng 1. CC KHI NIM CHUNG
1.1. Qui hoch thc nghim - bc pht trin ca khoa hc thc nghim
Nhiu cng trnh nghin cu khoa hc cng ngh thng a n gii bi
ton cc, tm iu kin ti u tin hnh cc qu trnh hoc la chn thnh
phn ti u tin hnh cc qu trnh hoc la chn thnh phn ti u ca h
nhiu phn t. Chng hn, khi xem xt cc qu trnh CN ha hc mi, nhim v
nghin cu thng l thay i nhit , p sut v t l cc cht phn ng tm
hiu sut phn ng cao nht, tnh ton, la chn gi tr thch hp nht ca cc
thng s cu trc v ng hc, nhm t n cht lng lm vic v hiu qu
kinh t cao nht ca qu trnh. Nhng bi ton ny thng gii quyt cc mc
nghin cu cc yu t nh hng n h, lp m hnh biu din mi ph
thuc gia cc phn t ca h, iu khin h theo mc ch cho trc, hoc a
v trng thi ti u theo nhng ch tiu nh gi chn. Thng thng cc h
cn iu khin v ti u rt phc tp, i tng nghin cu ngy cng a dng
hn, tr thnh nhng h thng cng knh vi tp hp ln cc yu t nh hng
v ch tiu nh gi. Mi quan h gia cc thnh phn trong h thng cng
khng th m t bng cc hm l thuyt. V vy, a s cc bi ton cc tr c
gii quyt bng thc nghim.
Ngy nay ngi ta thng cp ti phng php kt hp gia l thuyt
v thc nghim. Ty theo mc hiu bit v c ch ca qu trnh, ngha ca
nghin cu l thuyt thng c gii hn tc dng nh hng ban u, h
tr gim bt khi lng cng vic, rt ngn thi gian cho nghin cu thc
nghim. Bn cnh , thc nghim c tc dng tr li, b sung cho kt qu
nghin cu l thuyt, xc nh r hn c ch ca hin tng.
Vai tr ca thc nghim cng ln th mc tiu ra cho chng cng cao,
v vy thc nghim cng c nhu cu pht trin v tr thnh i tng nghin
cu, mt ngnh khoa hc.
C th ni, l thuyt qui hoch thc nghim t khi ra i thu ht s
quan tm v nhn c nhiu ng gp hon thin ca cc nh khoa hc.
Nhng u im r rt ca phng php ny so vi cc thc nghim c in l:
- Gim ng k s lng th nghim cn thit.
3
- Hm lng thng tin nhiu hn r rt, nh nh gi c vai tr qua li
gia cc yu t v nh hng ca chng n hm mc tiu. Nhn c m hnh
ton hc thng k thc nghim theo cc tiu chun thng k, nh gi c sai
s ca qu trnh thc nghim theo cc tiu chun thng k cho php xt nh
hng ca cc yu t vi mc tin cy cn thit.
- Cho php xc nh c iu kin ti u a yu t ca i tng nghin
cu mt cch kh chnh xc bng cc cng c ton hc, thay cho cch gii gn
ng, tm ti u cc b nh cc thc nghim th ng.
1.2. Nhng khi nim c bn ca qui hoch thc nghim
Qui hoch thc nghim l c s phng php lun ca nghin cu thc
nghim hin i. l phng php nghin cu mi, trong cng c ton hc
gia vai tr tch cc. C s ton hc nn tng ca l thuyt qui hoch thc
nghim l ton hc xc sut thng k vi hai lnh vc quan trng l phn tch
phng sai v phn tch hi qui.
* nh ngha qui hoch thc nghim: qui hoch thc nghim l tp hp
cc tc ng nhm a ra chin thut lm thc nghim t giai on u n giai
on kt thc ca qu trnh nghin cu i tng (t nhn thng tin m phng
n vic to ra m hnh ton, xc nh cc iu kin ti u), trong iu kin
hoc cha hiu bit y v c ch ca i tng.
* i tng ca qui hoch thc nghim trong cc ngnh cng ngh: L
mt qu trnh hoc hin tng no c nhng tnh cht, c im cha bit
cn nghin cu. Ngi nghin cu c th cha hiu bit u v i tng,
nhng c mt s thng tin tin nghim d ch l s lit k s lc nhng
thng tin bin i, nh hng n tnh cht i tng. C th hnh dung chng
nh mt hp en trong h thng iu khin gm cc tn hiu u vo v u
ra, nh hnh 1.






Hnh 1. S i tng nghin cu Hnh 2. S i tng nghin
cu vi nhiu e c tnh cng
HP EN
(QU TRNH
LM VIC CA
H THNG)
Z
E
T
Y

I TNG
NGHIN CU Z
e
T
Y
4
- Cc tn hiu u vo c chia thnh ba nhm:
1) Cc bin kim tra c v iu khin c, m ngi nghin cu c th
iu chnh theo d nh, biu din bng vect:
Z = [Z
1
, Z
2
, ..., Z
k
]
2) Cc bin kim tra c nhng khng iu khin c, biu din bng
vect:
T = [T
1
, T
2
, ..., T
h
]
3) Cc bin khng kim tra c v khng iu khin c, biu din
bng vect:
E = [E
1
, E
2
, ..., E
f
]
- Cc tn hiu u ra dng nh gi i tng l vect Y = (y
1
, y
2
,...,
y
q
). Chng thng c gi l cc hm mc tiu. Biu din hnh hc ca hm
mc tiu c gi l mt p ng (b mt biu din).
Phng php tan hc trong x l s liu t k hoch thc nghim l
phng php thng k. V vy cc m hnh biu din hm mc tiu chnh l cc
m hnh thng k thc nghim. Cc m hnh ny nhn c khi c cng tnh
nhiu ngu nhin. Cu trc m hnh thng k thc nghim c dng nh hnh 2.
Trong tp hp cc m hnh thng k khc nhau, m hnh c quan tm
nhiu nht trong thc t l m hnh ca phn tch hi qui. M hnh hi qui c
biu din bng quan h tng qut:
Y = (Z
1
, Z
2
, ..., Z
k
; T
1
, T
2
, ..., T
h
;
1
,
2
,...,
k
) + e = [(Z, T) ; ] + e
Trong = (
1
,
2
,...,
k
) l vect tham s ca m hnh.
Dng hm c n nh trc, cn cc h s l cha bit, cn xc nh
t thc nghim
xc nh cc tham s ca m t thng k thc nghim ta phi lm cc
thc nghim theo k hoch thc nghim. i tng nghin cu chnh ca l
thuyt qui hoch thc nghim l cc thc nghim tch cc. l cc thc
5
nghim ch bao gm cc yu t u vo thuc nhm Z, ngi thc nghim ch
ng thay i chng theo k hoch thc nghim vch sn.
* Cc phng php qui hoc thc nghim :
- Thc nghim sng lc : l thc nghim m nhim v ca n l tch
nhng yu t nh hng ng k ra khi nhng yu t u vo tip tc
nghin cu chng trong cc thc nghim cn thit.
- Thc nghim m phng : l thc nghim lin quan ti vic m phng
hin tng cn nghin cu. C nhiu dng m phng, y ch quan tm n
dng thc nghim c hon tt bng m hnh hi qui a thc.
- Thc nghim cc tr : l thc nghim c pht trin t thc nghim m
phng. Nhim v ca n l xy dng m hnh ton thc nghim, theo xc
nh gi tr ti u ca hm mc tiu v cc ta ti u ca hm. Ni cch
khc l xc nh b kt hp gi tr cc yu t m ti hm mc tiu t cc
tr.
* K hoch thc nghim :
i vi cc thc nghim tch cc, min tc ng l min cc gi tr c th
c ca cc yu t Z trong thc nghim. Trong min tc ng c min qui hoch
- min gi tr ca cc yu t vo Z - trong cha va cc im th nghim
ca thc nghim. Ni cch khc, l min to bi phm v thay i cc yu t
Z theo k hoch thc nghim xc nh. K hoch thc nghim bao gm cc
im th nghim gi l im ca k hoch. l mt b (cn gi l phng n)
kt hp cc gi tr c th ca cc yu t vo Z, ng vi iu kin tin hnh mt
th nghim trong tp hp cc th nghim ca thc nghim. Ti im th i ca k
hoch, b kt hp cc gi tr Z
ji
bao gm gi tr c th ca k yu t u vo :
Z
ji
= [Z
1i
, Z
2i
, ..., Z
kj
]
Trong : i = 1, 2, ..., N l im th nghim th i ca k hoch th
N l s im th nghim ca k hoch.
j = 1, 2, ..., k l yu t th j ; k l s yu t u vo.
6
* Cc mc yu t :
Cc gi tr c th ca yu t vo Z c n nh ti cc im k hoch
gi l cc mc yu t. Khi nim mc yu t dc s dng khi m t cc im
c trng trong min qui hoch: mc trn, mc di, mc c s, mc sao *.
Mc c s Z
0
j
ca cc yu t l iu kin th nghim c qun tm c
bit. Thng thng vect cc yu t u vo ti mc c s Z
0
= [Z
0
j
, Z
0
j
, ...,
Z
0
j
] ch ra trong khng gian yu t mt im c bit no gi l tm k
hoch, m trong vng quanh n phn b ton b cc im k hoch. Cc ta
Z
0
j
ca vect Z
0
c chn theo cng thc:

j
j j
j
Z
Z Z
X

=
0

; j = 1, ..., k
2
min max
j j
Z Z
Zj

=

; j = 1, ..., k
* Gi tr m ha: tin tnh cc h s thc nghim ca m hnh hi qui
ton hc v tin hnh cc bc x l s liu khc, trong k hoch thc nghim
ngi ta s dng cc mc yu t theo gi tr m ha. Gi tr m ha ca yu t
l i lng khng th nguyn, qui i chun ha t cc mc gi tr thc ca
yu t nh quan h :
min max
0 0
) ( 2
j j
j j
j
j j
j
Z Z
Z Z
Z
Z Z
x

=

Trong ti liu ny chng ta gi nguyn cc k hiu: Z
j
l gi tr thc ca
yu t (gi l bin thc) ; x
j
l gi tr m ha ca yu t (gi l bin m).
Nh vy, theo t l qui chun, mc c s m ha ca yu t u vo l : x
0
j

= 0.
Gc ta ca cc x
j
trng vi tm thc nghim, bc thay i ca cc
bin m x
j
ng vi cc bc x
j
chnh l 1 n v.
7

1
2
min max
=

=
j
j j
j
Z
Z Z
x

* Ma trn k hoch thc nghim: l dng m t chun cc iu kin tin
hnh th nghim (cc im th nghim) theo bng ch nht, mi hng l mt th
nghim (cn gi l phng n kt hp cc yu t u vo), cc ct ng vi cc
yu t u vo.
Trong ma trn k hoch Z c th c mt s hng m mi thng s vo
u ging nhau, v d, c mt s hng m mi thng s vo u mc c s,
mi Z
0
j
.
Ma trn k hoch thc nghim X l ma trn ch gm ton cc bin m x
j
.
Cc ct bin m hon ton khc nhau.

1.3. Cc nguyn tc c bn ca qui hoch thc nghim
1.3.1. Nguyn tc khng ly ton b trng thi u vo
c thng tin ton din v tnh cht hm mc tiu v nguyn tc cn
tin hnh v s cc thc nghim trong min qui hoch.









V d, trong trng hp c hai yu t, nu cho mi yu t bin i lin
tc t -1 n +1 th min thc nghim s l hnh vung cha v s im M(x
1
,
x
2
) c trng cho trng thi u vo.
O

* M(x
1
, x
2
)

+1
-1
8
V l thuyt nu khng tin hnh tt c cc thc nghim th c th b
st c im no ca hm mc tiu, tuy nhin thc t khng th thc hin
c iu . Do vy ngi nghin cu ch c th ly nhng gi tr ri rc,
chn mc bin i no cho cc yu t. S la chn ny cn c c s khoa
hc, n gn lin vi s la chn dng hm, tc l dng m phng ca b mt
p ng. Dng hm thng thng l bc mt hoc bc 2 v s mc bin i
thng l hai hoc ba.
1.3.2. Nguyn tc phc tp dn m hnh ton hc
Khi cha c thng tin ban u v cc tnh cht ca hm mc tiu, th
khng nn xy dng m hnh phc tp ca i tng trnh chi ph v ch v
thi gian, phng tin vt cht nu khng dng n m hnh . V th l
thuyt qui hoch thc nghim hng dn nn bt u t nhng m hnh n
gin nht, ng vi nhng thng tin ban u c v i tng.
Logic tin hnh thc nghim l nn lm t th nghim c m hnh n
gin (v d m hnh tuyn tnh), kim tra tnh tng hp ca m hnh :
- Nu m hnh tng hp, t yu cu th dng li, hoc ci tin ;
- Nu m hnh khng th tin hnh giai on tip theo ca thc nghim :
lm nhng th nghim mi, b sung ri nhn c m hnh phc tp hn (v
d m hnh phi tuyn), kim tra m hnh mi cho n khi t c m hnh hu
dng.

1.3.3. Nguyn tc i chng vi nhiu
chnh xc ca m hnh phi tng xng vi cng nhiu ngu
nhin m chng tc ng ln kt qu o hm mc tiu. Trong cng iu kin
nh nhau, nhiu cng nh th m hnh cng phi chnh xc, phi phc tp
hn.
Bng cc cng c tnh ton thng k, ngi ta xy dng hon chnh
cc qui trnh chun theo cc tiu chun thng k gii quyt cc nhim v xc
9
nh tnh tng hp ca m hnh tm c, hiu chnh dng m hnh, kim tra
tnh ng n ca cc gi thit, cc tin m da vo tm ra cc m hnh.

1.4. Cc bc qui hoch thc nghim cc tr
1.4.1. Chn thng s nghin cu
Phn loi cc yu t nh hng ln i tng thnh cc nhm Z, T v E.
Mt mt a ra nhng bin php tch cc hn ch tc ng ca cc nhm
yu t T v E, mt khc phi phn tch chn t Z cc yu t nh hng
chnh, loi bt nhng yu t khng cn thit, nhm m bo tnh kh thi v hiu
qu ca thc nghim
La chn ch tiu (mc tiu) nh gi i tng, sao cho cc ch tiu ny
va p ng cc yu cu ca phng php qui hoch thc nghim, va i din
nht cho cc iu kin ti u ca i tng nghin cu.
Cn c vo s yu t nh hng chnh, ch tiu nh gi, mc ch, nhim
v thc nghim, ngi nghin cu phi bit nhm cc yu t vo theo k hoch
thc nghim, v tnh hiu qu v kh nng lm vic ca cc m hnh hi qui ph
thuc nhiu vo kt qu xc nh yu t vo ca chng.
Trong giai on ny, min qui hoch v s mc thay i ca cc yu t
nh hng phi c xc nh s b.
1.4.2. Lp k hoch thc nghim
Chn c dng k hoch th nghim ph hp vi iu kin tin hnh th
nghim v vi c im cc yu t ca i tng.
Mi dng k hoch c trng bi cc chun ti u v tnh cht khc nhau.
Nn quan tm nhiu n iu kin th nghim v c im o c, nhn gi tr
ca mc tiu.
1.4.3. Tin hnh th nghim nhn thng tin
S dng cc phng php ring cho tng i tng
10
S dng mt s phng php x l s liu, kim t mt s gi thit thng
k. Vic x l nhanh cc thng tin ngay trong qu trnh nhn chng c tc dng
tch cc, gip xc minh kp thi nhng th nghim cn b sung khi iu kin th
nghim cn ang cho php vi cc php kim tra ng nht phng sai, tnh
lin thuc ca s liu b nghi ng, mc nh hng ca cc yu t...
1.4.4. Xy dng v kim tra m hnh thc nghim
S dng phng php bnh phng nh nht v cc ni dung phn tch hi
qui, phn tch phng sai xc nh gi tr ca cc h s trong m hnh hi
qui a thc, kim tra m hnh theo tng thch v kh nng lm vic. Ty
theo loi thc nghim m m hnh l tuyn tnh hay phi tuyn. V d cc dng
phng trnh hi qui:
- M hnh bc hai tuyn tnh:


= =

+ + + = =
k
j
k
u j
u j ju j j k
u j
x x b x b b x x x y
1 1 ,
0 2 1
... ) ,..., , (

- M hnh bc hai phi tuyn:

+ + + + =
= =

k
j jj
k
j
k
u j
u j ju j j
x b x x b x b b y
u j
1
2
1 1 ,
0
...

Cc h s hi qui B = [b
0
, b
1
, b
2
..., b
k
, b
11
, b
12
, ..., b
jj
] c xc nh theo
cng thc tng qut di dng ma trn :
B = [X*X]
-1
X*Y
Trong X* - ma trn chuyn v ca ma trn k hoch
M hnh thng k thc nghim ch c th s dng sau khi tha mn
cc tiu chun thng k (Student v Fisher).

1.5. ng dng ca qui hoch thc nghim trong ha hc, cng ngh ha
hc, cng ngh vt liu v cng ngh mi trng
1.5.1. Thit lp cc m t thng k
11
1) Xc nh cc yu t nh hng v cu trc h
S yu t c lp nh hng ln qu trnh ha l bng s bc t do ca
h, c xc nh theo cng thc :
F = F
k
+ F
h

trong : F
k
l bc t do iu khin
F
h
l bc t do hnh hc
Ty theo yu cu ca ngi nghin cu m ch cn chn ra k yu t
(k<F) nh hng ln mt hay nhiu hm mc tiu y
q
.
Cu trc h thc hin qu trnh ha l : l mt hp en khng bit r bn
cht bn trong m ch c mi lin h bn ngoi gia hm mc tiu v cc yu t
nh hng.

2) Xc nh cc hm ton m t h
Hm m t h l hm nhiu bin y = (x
1
, x
2
, ..., x
k
) c phn tch
thnh dy Taylor - hm hi qui l thuyt :

= = =
+ + + + =
k
j
j jj
k
j
k
u j
u j ju j j q
x x x x y
1
2
1 1 ,
0
...

Mun xc nh c cc h s hi qui l thuyt phi cn v s th
nghim. Trong thc t s th nghim N l hu hn, v vy m hnh thng k
thc nghim c dng :


+ + + + =
= =

k
j jj
k
j
k
u j
u j ju j j q
x b x x b x b b y
u j
1
2
1 1 ,
0
...

Cc h s b l cc tham s ca m t thng k.

3) Xc nh cc tham s m t thng k
12
Cc tham s ca m t thng k c xc nh t N thc nghim nh
cc k hoch thc nghim theo phng php bnh phng cc tiu. Sau khi tnh
c cc h s b phi kim tra tnh c ngha ca chng theo tiu chun
Student.
4) Kim tra s tng hp ca m t
S tng hp ca m t thng k vi bc tranh thc nghim c kim
chng theo tiu chun Fisher.
1.5.2. Cc phng php k hoch ha thc nghim cc tr ch yu
1) K hoch bc mt hai mc ti u
Nu khng c thng tin tin nghim cho bit h ang vng dng (vng
phi tuyn, vng cc tr) th m t qu trnh nn dng hm tuyn tnh v
khng c cc s hng bnh phng. xc nh cc tham s ca n, nn dng
k hoch bc mt hai mc ti u ca Box-Wilson l k hoch ton phn (2
k
)
hoc trong trng hp cn tit kim thi gian dng k hoch bn phn (2
k-i
).
2) K hoch bc hai
Khi m hnh tuyn tnh bc mt khng tng hp th chng t l vng
thc nghim vng phi tuyn, ta phi dng hm phi tuyn, c cc s hng
bnh phng m t.
C cc dng k hoch bc hai c bn :
- K hoch trc giao ca Box-Wilson
- K hoch bc hai tm xoay ca Box - Hunter
- K hoch bc hai ti u ca Kiefer

1.6. Khi nim h thng v cch tip cn h thng cng ngh
H thng: l tp hp ca nhiu phn t c:
+ Cu trc bn trong nht nh.
+ Tng tc vi mi trng bn ngoi.
: - Tm c cu trc cn phn tch h thnh nhng phn t
- Nm c hnh vi ca h phi m t tp hp bn cht ca h
13
Vy nguyn tc tip cn h thng: phn tch v tng hp m t bn cht
ca h.
tm c bn cht ca h phi nh m hnh ho v tm ra c iu
kin cng ngh ti u nh ti u ho cc hm ton m t bn cht ca h (
thng a n gii bi ton cc tr, tc l tm iu kin ti u thc hin mt
qu trnh nhm t n cht lng lm vic v hiu qu kinh t cao nht).

1.7 M hnh ho
1.7.1. M hnh
L mt i tng c mt ch th no trn c s ca s ng
dng v cu trc v chc nng dung thay th cho mt nguyn bn tng ng
c th gii quyt mt nhim v nht nh.
Mt nguyn bn c th c nhiu m hnh tu thuc vo ch th cn gii
quyt.
1.7.2. M hnh ton
Mt m hnh ton l biu din ton hc nhng mt ch yu ca 1
nguyn bn theo mt nhim v no , trong phm vi gii hn vi 1 chnh
xc va v trong 1 dng thch hp cho s vn dng.
Mt m hnh ton ca mt nguyn bn phi c 4 iu kin
+ Ch m t nhng mt chnh m ch th quan tm.
+ M t trong phm vi gii hn.
+ chnh xc va .
+ Kh nng vn dng m hnh c lp trong iu kin c th.
1.7.3. Cc dng m hnh ton ca i tng cng ngh ho hc
Xt m hmh thng k thc nghim trong ho hc, CNHH ngi ta
xy dng quan h gia cc i lng trn c s thit lp cc quan h trn vic
x l thng k nhng gi tr thc nghim.
xc lp m t thng k ca i tng CNHH cn thc hin nhng bc
sau:
+ Xc nh s cc yu t c lp nh hng ln h, tc l s yu t nh
hng (k) ln 1 hay nhiu hm mc tiu.
+ Xc nh cu trc ca h s c m hnh ho.
14
+ Xc nh cc hm ton m t cc qu trnh xy ra trong h, v
thng l hm nhiu bin v c biu din : y = f( x
1,
x
2,,
x
k
).
+ Xc nh cc thng s m hnh theo s liu thc nghim.
+ Kim tra s tng thch ca m hnh.
1.8. Ti u ho
1.8.1. Khi nim
L qu trnh tm kim iu kin tt nht (iu kin ti u) ca hm s
c nghin cu.
L qu trnh xc nh cc tr ca hm hay tm iu kin ti u tng
ng thc hin 1 qu trnh cho trc.
nh gi im ti u cn chn chun ti u (l cc tiu chun cng
ngh).
1.8.2. Cch biu din bi ton ti u
Ga s mt h thng cng ngh c biu din di dng sau:
Y = F(x
1,
x
2,...
x
k
)
x
1,
x
2,
x
k :
k thnh phn ca vecto thng s u vo.
Hm mc tiu : I = I (x
1
,x
2,
x
k
)
Bi ton c biu din I
opt
= opt I (x
1
,x
2
,x
k
) =I (x
1
opt
,x
2
opt
,x
k
)
hoc I
opt
= max I ( x
1
,x
2
,x
k
) : i vi bi ton max.
I
opt
= min I (x
1
,x
2
,x
k
) : i vi bi ton min.
I
opt
: hiu qu ti u.
x
1
opt
,x
2
opt
,x
k
nghim ti u hoc phng n ti u.
1.8.3. Thnh phn c bn ca bi ton ti u
1.8.3.1. Hm mc tiu
- L hm ph thuc.
- c lp ra trn c s tiu chun ti u c la chn.
Hm mc tiu l hm th hin kt qu m ngi thc hin phi t
c
l tiu chun ti u dng hm, ph thuc vo yu t u vo, gi tr ca
n cho php nh gi cht lng ca 1 nghin cu.
1.8.3.2. Quan h gia cc i lng
15
Cc biu thc ton hc m t cc mi quan h gia tiu chun ti u
ho (hm mc tiu) v cc thng s nh hng (thng s cn ti u) n gi tr
tiu chun ti u ho ny.
Cc quan h ny thng c biu din bng phng trnh c bn hoc
m hnh thng k thc nghim (phng trnh hi qui).
Quan h gia cc yu t nh hng vi nhau c biu din bng ng
thc hoc bt ng thc.
1.8.3.3. Cc iu kin rng buc
bi ton cng ngh c ngha thc t ,cc biu thc m t iu kin
rng buc bao gm: - iu kin bin.
- iu kin ban u
Cc bc gii bi ton ti u:
1. t vn cng ngh : xem xt cng ngh cn c gii quyt l
cng ngh g v chn ra nhng yu t nh hng chnh
Ch ra c hm mc tiu Y : YMAX, hoc YMIN
2. Xy dng mi quan h gia cc yu t nh hng v hm mc tiu
theo qui lut bit trc hoc m hnh thng k thc nghim
3. Tm thut gii: l phng php tm nghim ti u ca cc bi ton
cng ngh trn c s cc m t ton hc tng thch c thit lp. a s
dn n tm cc tr ca cc hm mc tiu
4. Phn tch v nh gi kt qu thu c
- Nu ph hp kim chng bng thc nghim
- Nu khng ph hp xem li tng bc hoc lm li t vic t vn

16
Chng 2. CC PHNG PHP PHN TCH HI QUI TNG QUAN

2.1. Cc thng s thc nghim
2.1.1. i lng ngu nhin
- nh ngha:
i lng ngu nhin (X) l tp hp tt c cc i lng m gi tr ca
n mang li mt cch ngu nhin. Tc l s xut hin l khng bit trc.
- i lng ngu nhin X c gi l ri rc khi n nhn hu hn hoc
v hn cc gi tr m c khc nhau.
- i lng ngu nhin X c gi l lin tc nu n nhn gi tr bt k
trong mt khong ca trc s.
2.1.2. Sai s o
Trong thc nghim, nhng gi tr nhn c l gi tr gn ng ca
mt gi tr thc. x = x a gi l sai s o.
Vi : a l gi tr thc ca mt vt.
x l kt qu quan st c.
x l lch gia a v x.
2.1.2.1. Sai s th
- L sai s phm phi do ph v nhng iu kin cn bn ca php o,
dn n cc ln o c kt qu khc nhau nhiu.
- Cch kh sai s th :
+ Kim tra cc iu kin c bn c b vi phm hay khng.
+ S dng mt phng php nh gi, loi b hoc gi li
nhng kt qu khng bnh thng.
2.1.2.2. Sai s h thng
- L sai s khng lm thay i trong mt lot php o, m thay i
theo mt quy lut nht nh.
- Nguyn nhn gy sai s: do khng iu chnh chnh xc dng c o,
hoc mt i lng lun thay i theo mt quy lut no , nh nhit
- khc phc ngi ta t mt h s hiu chnh ng vi mi nguyn
nhn.
2.1.2.3. Sai s ngu nhin
17
- Sai s ngu nhin ca php o l i lng ngu nhin c trng
bng lut phn phi th hin mi quan h gia cc gi tr c th c ca sai s v
xc sut sai s ngu nhin nhn cc gi tr y.
- L sai s cn li sau khi kh sai s th v sai s h thng.
- Sai s ngu nhin do nhiu yu t gy ra, tc dng rt nh, khng th
tch ring ra, v th khng loi tr c.
2.1.3. Cc c trng s ca i lng ngu nhin
2.1.3.1. K vng
1. K vng ton ca bin ngu nhin
- nh ngha:
K vng ton ca bin ngu nhin X l s c trng cho gi tr trung
bnh tnh theo xc sut ca tt c gi tr ca X.
Cho X l bin ngu nhin, k vng ton ca bin ngu nhin X c
k hiu l E(X) v xc nh nh sau:
- Nu X l bin ngu nhin ri rc v gi tr x
i
c th nhn cc xc sut p
i

(i = 1, 2, ) th: E(X) =
=
n
i 1
p
i
x
i
(2.1)
- Nu X l bin ngu nhin lin tc c hm mt xc sut l f(x) th:
E(X) =

+

xf(x)dx (2.2)
2. K vng mu thc nghim
K vng mu thc nghim c xc nh bng gi tr trung bnh ca
cc s liu quan st ca mi php o.
X =
m
1

=
m
i 1
x
i
(2.3)
Trong : x
i
l s o ca i lng x ln o th i.
m l s ln o.

3. Mod ca bin ngu nhin
Mod ca bin ngu nhin ri rc X l im x
0
sao cho:
P(X = x
0
) = max P (X = x
i
)
i = 1, 2,, tc l ti xc sut x
i
l ln nht.

18
2.1.3.2. Phng sai iu chnh mu thc nghim
Phng sai l c trng quan trng phn nh phn tn gi tr
bin ngu nhin xung quanh k vng v c k hiu l S
2
.
1. Phng sai mu thc nghim
Gi s x
1
, x
2
,x
m
l mu thc nghim ca X, khi S
2
gi l phng
sai mu thc nghim ca X, v c xc nh nh sau:
S
2
=
m
1

=
m
i
i
x
1
( - ) x
2
(2.4)
Trong : S
2
l phng sai mu thc nghim.
m l s ln o hay s ln quan st c.
x
i
l s o ca i lng x ln o th i.
x l trung bnh mu thc nghim.
2. Phng sai iu chnh mu thc nghim
Gi s S
2
l phng sai mu thc nghim, khi s thc S
1
2
c gi
l phng sai mu hiu chnh ca X v c xc nh nh sau:
S
1
2
=
f
1

m
i
x x
1
) (
2
(2.5)
f = m 1 l bc t do c trng cho mu thc nghim.
2.1.3.3. lch chun (SD)
- L tham s dng xc nh phn tn ca bin ngu nhin c
cng n v vi n.
- Gi s S
2
v S
1
2
l phng sai v phng sai iu chnh mu ngu
nhin ca X, khi S v S
1
c gi l lch tiu chun iu chnh mu thc
nghim ca X v xc nh nh sau:
S =
2
S (2.6)
S
1
=
2
1
S (2.7)
2.1.3.4. Sai s chun (SE)
- L t l gia lch chun trung bnh mu vi cn bc hai ca dung
lng mu: SE = =
N
S
1
(2.8)
- L thng s thng k quan trng nh gi mc phn tn ca
mu chnh n biu th sai s ca s trung bnh. Sai s y do s chnh lch c
19
hc c h thng ca s liu m phng thc chn mu l mt trong nhng
nguyn nhn chnh gy nn.
- Mc ch chnh SE l xc nh mc phn tn ca gi tr trung
bnh mu v gii hn tin cy ca mu thc nghim.
2.1.3.5. ngha ca phng sai, lch chun, sai s chun
Phng sai, lch chun, sai s chun gip cho ta nhn bit c
mc ng u ca gi tr thc nghim.
Nu phng sai, lch chun, sai s chun nh th cc gi tr thc
nghim tng i ng u v tp trung xung quanh gi tr trung bnh.

2.1.4. chnh xc v tin cy ca php o
- Gi s mt php o vi sai s tin cy nh sau:
X X = X =

tin cy l xc sut kt qu cc ln o ri vo khong tin cy
( X - < X < X + ), tc l P( X - < X < X + ) = v tin cy
thng cho trc 0,95; 0,99; 0,999;...
2.2. Phn tch thng k cc kt qu thc nghim (phn tch quy hi)
Gm cc bc sau:
- Kim tra gi tr ca tt c cc h s hi qui bng cch so snh vi sai
s lp li (S
bj
) hay cn gi l sai s chun.
- S ph hp gia m t ton hc vi kt qu thc nghim.
2.2.1. Phng sai ti hin
Xc nh phng sai ti hin xc nh sai s ti hin.
2.2.1.1. Phng sai ti hin ca mt th nghim
Gi s mt th nghim c lp i lp li m ln vi gi tr tng ng
thu c l y
1
, y
2
,...,y
m
. Phng sai ti hin ca mt mu thc nghim c
xc nh nh sau: S
th
2
=
1
f

=
m
i
i
y
1
( - y )
2
(2.9)
hay S
th
2
=
1
1
m

=
m
i
i
y
1
( - y )
2
(2.10)
Trong : f = m 1 l t do c trng cho kh nng bin i m
khng lm thay i h.
20
m l s ln lp.
2.2.1.2. Phng sai ti hin ca mt cuc th nghim
S
th
2
=
N
1

=
N
u
u
S
1
2
(2.11)
M S
u
2
=
1
1
m

=
m
i
ui
y
1
( - y
u
)
2
(2.12)
S
th
2
=
) 1 (
1
m N

=
N
u 1

=
m
i
ui
y
1
( - y
u
)
2
(2.13)
Trong : u = 1,2,3,...
i = 1,2,3,...
N l s th nghin khc nhau.
m l s ln lp li.
Cng thc dng tnh phng sai ti hin ca mt cuc th nghim,
thng s dng cho phngn th nghin song song (phng n m mi mt
im th nghim phi tin hnh lp li).
Phng sai phn phi trung bnh cho tng th nghim c xc nh
nh sau : S
th
2
( y ) =
m
1
S
th
2
(2.14)
V d 1: Tnh phng sai ti hin ca mt cuc th nghim tng ng
vi nhng s liu thc nghim thu c bng sau :

Bng 1:Kt qu th nghim
Kt qu S.T.N

(u)
S ln
lp (m) y
u1
y
u2
y
u3
y
u4

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
73
58
54
84
100
98
77
105
69
58
59
94
106
90
85
95
68
64
52
92
109
97
78
100
70
60
55
90
105
95
80
100
21
T bng s liu ta thy i = 1,2,3; u = 1,2,3,8; m = 3; N = 8.
tnh phng sai ti hin ca mt cuc th nghim ta lp bng sau:
Bng 2: Phng sai ti hin ca tng th nghim

u
(y
u1
- y
u
)
2

(1)
(y
u2
- y
u
)
2

(2)
(y
u3
- y
u
)
2

(3)
(1+2+3) S
u
2
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
4
1
36
25
9
9
25
1
4
16
16
1
25
25
25
4
16
9
4
16
4
4
0
14
24
26
56
42
38
38
50
7
12
13
28
21
19
19
25

=
=
8
1
144
u

T kt qu bng 2, ta tnh phng sai ti hin ca cuc th nghim:
S
th
2
=
N
1

=
N
u
u
S
1
2
=
8
144
= 8
Phng sai phn phi trung bnh cho mt th nghim:
S
th
2
( y ) =
m
1
S
th
2
=
3
18
= 6
2.2.2. Phng sai d
- d l hiu gia gi tr thc nghim thu c vi gi tr tnh c theo
phng trnh hi qui ca cc thng s ti u.
- Phng sai tm c trn c s tng bnh phng cc d gi l
phng sai d, c k hiu v xc nh nh sau:
S
d
2
=
du
f
1
m
u
N
u
y y

=1
~
( )
2
(2.15)
S
d
2
=
du
f
1
u
N
u
y y

=1
~
( )
2
(2.16)
Trong : f
d
= N L t do d.
N l s th nghi m trong mt cuc th nghim.
L s h s c ngha trong phng trnh hi qui.
22
u
y
~
gi tr c tnh theo phng trnh hi qui ng vi iu kin nghim
th u.
u
y l gi tr trung bnh thc nghim ti th nghim th u
(trong iu kin mi im thc nghim c tin hnh lp li).
y
u
l gi tr thc nghim trong iu kin khng lm th nghim lp.
2.2.3. Kim nh thng k
2.2.3.1. Kim tra s ng nht ca cc phng sai
- Kim tra s ng nht ca cc phng sai l kim tra hi t ca
cc gi tr thc nghim. Phng php kim tra ny ch c p dng trong
phng n th nghim song song.
- kim tra ngi ta ch s dng chun Cochoren.
Cc im phn v ca phn phi chun Cochoren vi P = 0,05








Trong : N l s th nghim trong mt cuc th nghim.
f l t do ng vi th nghim c phng sai ti hin ln nht.
m l s ln lp ca th nghim c phng sai ti hin ln nht.
G
b
c tm thy bng vi mc ngha chn, l im gp nhau
gia hng biu th s th nghim N v ct biu th bc t do f.
* Cc bc tin hnh kim tra
- Xc nh i lng trung bnh t cc kt qu ca cc th nghim song
song.
- Xc nh cc phng sai thc nghim (S
u
2
) ti mi im th nghim
theo cng thc (2.9).
- Tnh tng cc phng sai

=
N
u
u
S
1
2

S T.N t do (f = m 1)
1 2 3
2 0,9985 0,9750 0,9392
3 0,9669 0,8709 0,7977



0,000 0,000 0,000
23
- Tnh G
tn
theo cng thc sau: G
tn
=

=
N
u
u
u
S
S
1
2
2
max
; u = 1,2,3,...,N (2.17)
max S
u
2
l gi tr cc i ca phng sai thc nghim th u.
N l s th nghim trong mt cuc th nghim.
- Tra bng G
b
vi mc ngha P chn, s th nghim N v t do f
ca im thc nghim c phng sai ti hin ln nht.
- So snh G
m
v G
b
.
+ Nu G
tn
< G
b
: gi thit c chp nhn.
+ Nu G
tn
< G
b
: gi thit khng c chp nhn.
2.2.3.2. Kim tra ngha ca cc h s trong phng trnh hi qui
- Mc ch ca kim tra ny l xem cc h s b
j
trong phng trnh
hi qui c khc 0 vi mt tin cy no hay khng.
- kim tra ngha ca cc h s trong phng trnh hi qui ta phi
s dng chun Student (t).
* Cc bc tin hnh kim tra:
- Tnh chun t
tn
theo cng thc: t
tn
= t
j
=
bj
j
S
b
(2.18)
b
j
l h s ng vi yu t th j trong PTHQ; j = 0,1,2,
S
bj
lch qun phng ca h s b
j
- Tra bng t
b (P,f)
ng vi mc ngha P chn trc v f; f l bc t do
ng vi phng sai ti hin ca tng phng n m ngi nghin cu chn.
- So snh t
j
v t
b

+ Nu t
j
> t
b
h s b
j
c ngha v c gi li trong PTHQ.
+ Nu t
j
< t
b
h s b
j
khng c ngha v loi khi PTHQ. Cc h s
cn li c tnh li theo phng phpbnh phng ti thiu cho ti khi tt c
chng u c ngha.
2.2.3.3. Kim tra s tng thch ca PTHQ vi thc nghim
- Dng PTHQ l do ngi nghin cu t chn v cc h s trong PTHQ
c xc nh da trn cc s kiu thc nghim. V vy cn phi xem xt m t
ton hc c ph hp vi thc nghim hay khng, v ngi ta dng phn phi
Fisher (F) vi mt mc ngha no .
* Cc bc tin hnh kim tra:
24
- Vit PTHQ vi cc h s c ngha.
- Tnh F
tn
theo cng thc: F
tn
=
2
2
th
tt
S
S
(2.19)
Trong : S
tt
2
l phng sai tng thch v c tnh theo cng thc (2.15),
(2.16).
S
th
2
l phng sai ti hin c tnh theo cng thc (2.8) vi
phng n th nghim ti tm hoc tnh theo cng thc (2.14) ng vi phng n
th nghim song song.
- F
b
tra bng f
b (P, f1,f2)
tc l ng vi mc ngha P chn v bc t do f
1
, f
2

- Tiu chun kim nh (so snh F
tn
v F
b
)
+ Nu F
tn
< F
b
th PTHQ va lp ph hp vi thc nghim.
+ Nu F
tn
> F
b
th PTHQ va lp khng ph hp vi thc nghim v
lm tip cc cng vic sau:
* Kim tra li cng vic tnh ton.
* Xem li m hnh nghin cu ng cha.
* Chn m t ton hc (PTHQ) mc cao hn.
2.3. Cc phng php phn tch hi quy
2.3.1. Phng php bnh phng nh nht (BPNN)
L phng n c bn c hiu lc khi x l cc s liu thc nghim v
xy dng m hnh thng k cho nhiu i tng nghin cu thuc cc lnh vc
khc nhau.
Phng php ny cho php xc nh cc h s ca phng trnh hi
qui chn sao cho lch ca s ph thuc cho so vi s liu thc nghim
l nh nht. min )
~
(
1
2
=

=
N
u
u u
Y Y (2.20)
Trong : Y
u
l gi tr thc nghim ng vi k thng s ti u th
nghim th u.

u
Y
~
l gi tr theo phng trnh hi qui s ti u th nghim
th u.
2.3.2. Hi quy tuyn tnh mt bin
Phng trnh hi quy tuyn tnh mt bin s c dng:

25
x b b y
1 0
+ =
(2.21)
Cc h s ca phng trnh hi quy c xc nh bng phng php
bnh phng nh nht (BPNN), vi s th nghim l N.
H phng trnh chun c dng :

= +
= +


0 ) (
0 ) (
1 0
1 0
i i i i
i i
x x b b x y
x b b y

2.3.3. Hi quy parabol
Phng trnh hi quy parabol - bc hai mt bin c dng:
2
11 1 0
x b x b b y + + =

Cc h s ca phng trnh hi quy cng c xc nh bng phng
php bnh phng nh nht (BPNN), vi s th nghim l N.
Trong trng hp ny :
1
) (
0
=

b
x f
;
x
b
x f
=

1
) (
;
2
11
) (
x
b
x f
=

H phng trnh chun c dng :

= + +
= + +
= + +



i
i i i i
i
i i i i
i
i i
y x x b x b x b
y x x b x b x b
y x b x b N b
2 4
11
3
1
2
0
3
11
2
1 0
2
11 1 0

2.3.4. Hi quy hm s m
Khi s thc nghim N b, nu tng bc ca a thc c th dn n vic
tng phng sai d. Lc ny gim s cc h s khng xc nh, ta dng hi
quy hm s m. Vic xc nh cc h s ca phng trnh hi quy c th rt
kh khn do phi gii h phng trnh phi tuyn. Vic tnh ton s tr nn n
gin hn nu tin hnh thay th cc bin s v h bc a thc.
V d cc quan h kiu hm s m nh sau :
x
b b y
1 0
=

1
0

b
x b y =

26
c logarit ha :
1 0
lg lg lg b x b y + =

x b b y lg lg lg
1 0
+ =

Sau khi t :
t x a b a b z y = = = = lg ; lg ; lg ; lg
0 0 1 1

Ta s nhn c phng trnh tuyn tnh vi cc bin s :
x
a a z
1 0
+ =

t b a z
1 0
+ =

Cc h s a
0
, a
1
, b
1
c xc nh theo phng php BPNN. T a
0
v a
1

c th tnh c b
0
v b
1
.

2.3.5. Hi quy nhiu bin
Nu cn nghin cu lin kt tng quan gia nhiu i lng ngi ta
dng phng trnh hi quy nhiu bin :
k k
x b x b x b b y + + + + = ...
2 2 1 1 0

y, chng ta gp khng phi ng hi quy, m l mt phng hi quy
khi k=2 v mt hyper khi k>2. Trong trng hp chung, b mt ny gi l b
mt mc hoc b mt p tr. Khi xy dng b mt mc trn trc ta ca
khng gian yu t cn phi t cc gi tr bng s ca cc yu t ln h ta .
Phi chuyn t quy m t nhin sang quy m chun. Ngha l phi tin hnh
chun ha tt c cc gi tr ca cc i lng ngu nhin theo cc cng thc
thng k v chuyn t bin thc sang bin c m ha khng c th nguyn.
27
Chng 3. PHNG PHP CHN LA CC YU T NH HNG

3.1. La chn cc yu t u vo
Yu cu i vi cc bin c la chn l cc yu t u vo ca nghin cu
thc nghim :
- L cc bin c lp, iu chnh c, s thay i gi tr ca chng theo cc
mc quy hoch l hon ton c lp, khng ph thuc v ko theo s thay i ca
cc yu t khc. Cc vc t ca chng trong ma trn k hoch phi c lp tuyn
tnh.
- L cc yu t nh lng, v vy cc yu t nh tnh khng c tr s xc
nh c th nh : phng php to mu, mu sc ca i tng, hnh dng ca b
phn lm vic khng th a vo lm yu t nghin cu ca quy hoch thc
nghim.
- C hiu ng nh hng r nt n hm mc tiu nh gi hnh vi i
tng nghin cu.
Cc cn c la chn cc yu t u vo : thng tin tin nghim, kt qu
nghin cu l thuyt, kin chuyn gia, cc thc nghim thm d v thc
nghim sng lc.

3.1.1. Thng tin tin nghim
Thng tin c c nh kt qu quan st trc tip lm vic ca i tng
nghin cu v kt qu tm hiu ti liu tham kho. Phn ln cc i tng nghin
cu c nghin cu bng l thuyt hoc thc nghim. l nhng qu trnh
tng t din ra trong mi trng khc, nhng c cng bn cht vt l, cng quy
lut tc ng y l nhng thng tin s b, nh hng.

3.1.2. Kt qu nghin cu l thuyt
28
Trong nhiu trng hp, ngi nghin cu tuy cha th hiu bit v xy dng
nhng m hnh l thuyt c bn v ton din v i tng, nhng t nhng l
thuyt ca khoa hc c s, hoc t cc cng trnh l thuyt tng t, c th m t
bng cng thc gii tch mt s tnh cht hoc hnh vi no ca i tng nghin
cu.
3.1.3. kin chuyn gia
Thng thng, thng tin t cc ti liu rt t v khng ton din v i tng
nghin cu. Do vy c th s dng phng php xin kin chuyn gia nh gi
mc quan trng ca cc yu t nh hng. Phng hasp ny c hiu qu tt
nu s yu t cn nh gi ln v s chuyn gia ng. y l phng php
c chun ha, c th p dng cho nhiu i tng nghin cu khoa hc khc
nhau.
3.1.4. Cc thc nghim thm d, thc nghim sng lc
i khi, sau cc bc ni trn vn cn li vi yu t nh hng ng nghi ng
m vic loi b hay gi li lm yu t nghin cu cn nh n kt qu kim chng
thc nghim. Hoc khi i tng nghin cu qu mi m, thng tin ban u t v
cha tin cy, vic sng lc cc yu t cn tin hnh ht sc cn thn. Nu b st
yu t quan trng xj no , th cc kt qu nghin cu s ch l 1 thit din ca
mt mc tiu to bi mt phng xj = const. Nhng trng hp ny i hi phi tin
hnh cc thc nghim thm d.
a. Thc nghim thm d n yu t
- Thc hin th nghim vi mt yu t thay di, cc yu t cn li c n
nh cc gi tr c nh.
- X l s li trong c kim tra gi thit v tnh ng nht phng sai v
nh gi mc nh hng ca yu t theo kt qu phn tch phng sai.
- Xc nh m hnh ton thc nghim n yu t tin hnh cc pjaan tch
v d bo cn thit. Bc ny thc hin theo phng php bnh phng b nht.
b. Thc nghim sng lc a yu t
29
Thc nghim sng lc a yu t cn p ng cc yu cu:
- S th nghim so vi s yu t cn kho st l ti thiu, cho php a vo k
hoch t a cc yu t thay , m s th nghim l chp nhn c, tn t cng
sc.
- Cho php phn tch v so snh i chng hiu ng tc ng ca cc yu t
ring r, hoc cc cp yu t theo iu kin t ra ban u.
3.2. Phng php chuyn gia
Cc chuyn gia thuc nhiu trng phi khc nhau s c ngh sp
seexp cc yu t nh hng n i tng theo trnh t gim dn v mc nh
hng n cc mc tiu ti u. Mi chuyn gia khi c hi phi in vo phiu
iu tra, ghi sn cc yu t, th nguyn v khong bin thin ca chng.
Cc chuyn gia cn phi ghi v tr th t ca mi yu t cng quan trng cng c
th t hng trng s cng ln, nu cn thit c th b sung vo phiu nhng yu t
mi hoc b bt yu t c hoc nu kin v min bin thin ca chng. m
bo nh gi khch quan th s chuyn gia c hi cng nhiu cng tt.
3.3. Cc thc nghim sng lc theo phng n bo ha
Sau tt c cc bc: nghin cu ti liu tha kho, ly kin chuyn gia,
phn tch l thuyt nu s yu t nh hng cn li kh ln th thc nghim sng
lc ng vai tr sng lc quyt nh. Ty theo gi thit ban u, ngi ta phn
thnh phng n bo ha, siu bo ha (cn i ngu nhin) v loi k tip.
Thc nghim c gi l bo ha khi ton b s bc t do ca thc nghim
c dng c lng cc h s ca m hnh ton thc nghim. Gi s s h s
trong phng trnh hi quy thc nghim l L, s th nghim ca thc nghim l N,
th thc nghim bo ha l thc nghim m:
L = N
3.4. Nhm cc yu t vo v chn mc tiu nh gi
Mc d qua cc bc sng lc, nhng nhiu thc nghim s yu t cn
nghin cu cn li kh ln. Xt theo quan im h thng, a cng nhiu yu t c
30
nh hng thc s vo mt k hoch thc nghim, ngi nghin cu cng c iu
kin tm c ti u c cht lng cao ca i tng. Tuy nhin li c mt s mt
nhc im.
Trc ht, khc vi thc nghim sng lc, cc thc nghim tm ti u giai
on sau phi p ng cc tiu chun ti u nghim ngt ca k hoch thc
nghim. V th, khi s yu t vo kh ln (ch cn khi k 7 ) th s th nghim
trong k hoch tng ln rt nhiu. mi im li phi tin hnh mt s th
nghim song song (lp li). Ton b cc th nghim cn tin hnh theo trnh t
ngu nhin ha. Cc yu cu ny cng lm tng khi lng v thi gian thc
nghim.
Ngi nghin cu ng trc s la chn: xy dng v tin hnh mt k
hoch thc nghim vi ton b s yu t nh hng chn, v d k = 7, hay tch
ra thnh 2 k hoch song song vi k
1
= 3; k
2
= 4.

3.5. nh hng ca cc tin ca phn tch hi qui n s la chn cc yu
t c lp
Phn tch hi quy c xy dng vi nhng tin m chng c lin quan
n mi trng v iu kin thc nghim. iu kin v mi trng thc nghim
li b rng buc bi im cc thng s nghin cu v ch tiu nh gi. Mc
tha mn cc tin vcuar phn tch hi quy ph thuc nhiu vo cch chn nhm
v xc nh mc, khong bin thin ca cc yu t nh hng, vo nhy v
chnh xc ca cc gi tr quan st ch tiu u ra. Do vy, ngi nghin cu cn
bit r cc yu cu ny c nhng quyt nh ti u ngay bc xc nh cc
yu t nghin cu.
31
Chng 4. CC PHNG PHP HOCH NH THC NGHIM

4.1. QUY HOCH TRC GIAO CP I

CC BC QUY HOCH TRC GIAO CP I

1. XC NH MIN BIN THIN
Z
j
min
< Z
j
< Z
j
max

v TM QUY HOCH : Z
j
o
= 0.5(Z
j
min
+ Z
j
max
)
2. CHN DNG PHNG TRNH HI QUY
sau khi m ha : x
j
= 2( Z
j
- Z
j
o
) / ( Z
j
max
- Z
j
min
)
+ chn dng tuyn tnh :
y
1
= b
0
+ b
1
x
1
+ ..+ b
k
x
k

( + hoc dng :
y
1
= b
0
+ b
1
x
1
+ + b
k
x
k
+ b
12
x
1
x
2
+ +b
k-1,k
x
k-1
x
k
)
3. THC HIN N TH NGHIM N = 2
k

TNH TON XC NH CC H S HI QUY b
j

bng phng php Bnh phng cc tiu
4. KIM NH S C NGHA CA CC H S HI QUY b
j

vi chun Student
Thc hin cc th nghim ti tm quy hoch hoc s dng cc th
nghim song song, lp li. Loi b cc b
j
khng c ngha, tnh ton li cc
b
j
v kim nh li cho ti khi ch cn cc b
j
c ngha
5. KIM NH S C NGHA CA PHNG TRNH HI
QUY vi chun Fisher
32
4.1.1. Thc nghim yu t ton phn TYT 2
k

Tu thuc thng tin ban u m ngi nghin cu t chc cc th
nghim nhn c m hnh thng k thc nghim dng tuyn tnh hoc phi
tuyn
Chn qui hoch thc nghim yu t ton phn v tng phn
Nhng thc nghm m mi t hp cc mc ca yu t u c thc
hin nghin cu gi l thc nghim yu t ton phn (TYT n
k
)
N = n
k
(4.1)
Trong : N : lng th nghm
n : s lng mc ca cc yu t
k : s yu t nh hng
Xt thc nghim yu t ton phn 2 mc k yu t nh hng
4.1.1.1. Cch t chc th nghim trc nghim trc giao cp I
1 S th nghim cn thc hin
N = 2
k
2 Mc c bn Z
j
0
=
2
min max
j j
Z Z +
(4.2)
Trong : Z
j
0
l mc c bn ( tm phng n).
Z
j
max
l mc trn (mc cao).
Z
j
min
l mc di (mc thp).
Vect vo ti mc c bn Z
j
0
(j = 1,2,...k) ch ra khng gian cc yu t
ca mt im c bit gi l tm thc nghim.
3 Khong bin thin
=
I

2
min max
j j
Z Z
(j = 1,2,3...k) (4.3)

I
l khong bin thin theo trc Z
j.

V d: Xem trang 25 (Gio trnh Quy hoch thc nghim nghin cu
v ng dng ca Nguyn Th Lan).
4 Bin khng th nguyn : k hiu x
j

M ho c thc hin d dng nh vic chn tm Z
j
0
ca min nghin
cu lm gc to h trc .
33

=
j
j j
j
j
j j
j
j
j j
j
Z Z
x
Z Z
x
Z Z
x

0 0
0
0 min
min
0 max
max
j = 1,2,3...k (4.4)
Ta th nguyn mc trn (x
j
max
) lun bng +1; mc di (x
j
min
)
lun bng 1 v ta ca tm phng n (x
j
) lun bng 0 v trng vi gc ta
.

=
+ =
j j j
j j j
Z Z
Z Z

0 min
0 max
(4.5)
5 Lp ma trn thc nghim
Ma trn thc nghim vi bin thc nghim l mt dng m t chun
cc iu kin tin hnh th nghim theo bng ch nht. Mi hng l mt th
nghim,trong ma trn c mt s hng ging nhau m thng s u mc c s
Z
j
0

Ma trn thc nghim vi bin o l ma trn ch bao gm cc bin o x
j

.Khi xy dng ma trn thc nghim a thm bin x
0
= 1 v b tr cc th
nghim sao cho khng c th nghim no trng nhau. Theo kinh nghm lm nh
sau :
- Xc nh s th nghim cn thc hin theo cng thc N = 2
k
, ct x
0
lun
bng 1
- Lp cho tng yu t nh hng v ln lt t x
1
n x
k
.
Ch : Ngi nghin cu nn a cc th nghim tm vo ma trn
Tnh Y
0
(gi tr tm thc nghim); b
0
c th d on c
vng nghin cu thuc vng tuyn tnh hoc phi tuyn.
6 Tnh cht ma trn trc giao cp I
Ma trn trc giao cp I c nhng tnh cht sau:
- Tnh i xng qua tm thc nghim.
0
1
=

=
N
u
iu
x ; i = 1,2,3,...k (4.6)
u = 1,2,3,...N
34
- Tnh trc giao gia 2 ct trong ma trn thc nghim.
0
1
=

=
N
u
iu iu
x x ; i j = 1,2,3...k (4.7)
- Tnh bt bin khi quay h trc quanh tm thc nghim.
N x
N
u
iu
=

=1
2
; i = 1,2,3,...k (4.8)
* u im ca ma trn trc giao cp I:
- Khi loi b nhng h s khng c ngha s khng phi tnh li cc h
s c ngha.
- Phng sai cc h s b (S
bj
2
) trong phng trnh hi qui c gi tr ti
thiu, xc nh theo kt qu ca N th nghim v nh hn phng sai ti hin
S
th
2
.
- Tm phng n thng tin nhiu nht ch ln thc nghim lp
tm thc nghim l .

4.1.1.2. Mt s dng ca phng trnh hi qui cp I
Trc tin,phi bit c s ph thuc gia cc thng s u vo v
thng s u ra Y=f(x) chn phng trnh hi qui sao cho hp l.
i vi qui hoch thc nghim, nhng phng trnh hi qui cp I
thng chn cc khai trin ca a thc c dng tng qut sau :
Y
~
= b
0
+ b
1
x
1
+...+ b
k
x
k
+...+ b
ij
x
i
x
j
+...+ b
ijk
x
i
x
j
x
k
; vi i j k = 1,2,3...k (4.9)
Trong : b
0
l h s hi qui.
b
j
l h s tuyn tnh.
b
ij
; b
ijk
l h s tng tc cp v tng tc ba.
n gin th chn dng phng trnh hi qui dng tuyn tnh.
Mun xy dng phng trnh hi qui y a thm vo phng
trnh tuyn tnh cc h s tng tc
Vi k = 2 (2 yu t nh hng) ta c:

+ + + =
+ + =
2 1 12 2 2 1 1 0
2 2 1 1 0
~
~
x x b x b x b b Y
x b x b b Y
(4.10)


35
Vi k = 3 ta c:

+ + + + + + + =
+ + + =
3 2 1 123 3 1 13 2 1 23 2 1 12 3 3 2 2 1 1 0
3 3 2 2 1 1 0
b Y
~
b Y
~
x x x b x x b x x b x x b x b x b x b
x b x b x b
(4.11)
4.1.1.3.Lp cng thc tnh h s b trong phng trnh hi qui
1 Phng n bnh phng nh nht (BPNN)
L phng n c bn c hiu lc khi x l cc s liu thc nghim v
xy dng m hnh thng k cho nhiu i tng nghin cu thuc cc lnh vc
khc nhau.
Phng php ny cho php xc nh cc h s ca phng trnh hi
qui chn sao cho lch ca s ph thuc cho so vi s liu thc nghim
l nh nht. min )
~
(
1
2
=

=
N
u
u u
Y Y (4.12)
Trong : Y
u
l gi tr thc nghim ng vi k thng s ti u th
nghim th u.

u
Y
~
l gi tr theo phng trnh hi qui s ti u th nghim
th u.

2 H phng trnh chun tc
Xt k = 2, dng PTHQ nh sau:

Y
~
= b
0
x
0u
+ b
1
x
1u
+ b
2
x
2u
+ b
12
x
1u
x
2u
(4.13)

Thay (4.13) vo (4.12):
( ) [ ]
2
1
2u 1u 12 2u 2 1u 1 0u 0
x x b x b x b x b

=
+ + + =
N
u
u
Y min (4.14)
cc tiu khi tha mn cc iu kin sau:
0
0
=

b
; 0
1
=

b
; 0
2
=

b
; 0
12
=

b
(4.15)

C th vit di dng sau:
36

( ) [ ]
( ) [ ]
( ) [ ]
( ) [ ]

= + + + =

= + + + =

= + + + =

= + + + =

=
=
=
=
4
1
2 1 2 1 12 2 2 1 1 0 0
12
4
1
2 2 1 12 2 2 1 1 0 0
2
4
1
1 2 1 12 2 2 1 1 0 0
1
4
1
0 2 1 12 2 2 1 1 0 0
0
0
0
0
0
u
u u u
u
u u
u
u u
u
u u
x x Y u x x b x b x b x b
b
x Y u x x b x b x b x b
b
x Y u x x b x b x b x b
b
x Y u x x b x b x b x b
b
(4.16)

( )

= + + +
= + + +
= + + +
= + + +




= = = = =
= = = = =
= = = = =
= = = = =
4
1
4
1
4
1
4
1
4
1
2 1
2
2 1 12
2
2 1 2 2
2
1 1 2 1 0
4
1
4
1
4
1
4
1
4
1
2
2
2 1 12
2
2 2 2 1 1 2 0
4
1
4
1
4
1
4
1
4
1
1 2
2
1 12 2 1 2
2
1 1 1 0
4
1
4
1
4
1
4
1
4
1
0 2 1 12 2 2 1 1 0 0
u u u u u
u u u u u u u u u u u
u u u u u
u u u u u u u u
u u u u u
u u u u u u u u
u u u u u
u u u u u u u
x x Y x x b x x b x x b x x b
x Y x x b x b x x b x b
x Y x x b x x b x b x b
x Y x x b x b x b x b
(4.17)
Phng trnh (4.17) gi l h phng trnh chun tc.

3 Cng thc tnh h s b ca phng trnh hi qui
Cc h s b trong phng trnh hi qui c lp nhau v xc nh nh
sau:

=
=
=
=

=
=
=
=
4
1
2 1 12
4
1
2 2
4
1
1 1
4
1
0 0
4
1
4
1
4
1
4
1
u
u u u
u
u u
u
u u
u
u u
Y x x b
Y x b
Y x b
Y x b
(4.18)
Cng thc tng qut tnh cc h s b trong phng trnh hi qui
ca qui hoch trc giao cp I tng ng vi k yu t nh hng nh sau:
37

=
=
=
=

=
=
=
=
4
1
4
1
4
1
4
1
0 0
1
1
1
1
u
u lu ju iu ijl
u
u ju iu ij
u
u ju j
u
u u
Y x x x
N
b
Y x x
N
b
Y x
N
b
Y x
N
b
i j l = 1,2,3...k (4.19)
4 ngha ca h s b trong phng trnh hi qui
Ga tr ca h s b
j
trong phng trnh hi qui c trng cho s ng
gp ca yu t th j vo i lng Y.
H s no c gi tr tuyt i ln nht th yu t tng ng s nh
hng n qu trnh l nhiu nht.
4.1.1.4. Kim tra ngha ca cc h b trong phng trnh hi qui
kim tra ngha ca cc h s b trong phng trnh hi qui phi
tnh phng sai ti hin (lm th nghim song song mi im thc nghim).
H s b trong phng trnh hi qui c lp nhau v xc nh vi mt
chnh xc (S
bj
).
N
S
S
th
bj
= (4.20)
N: s th nghim ng mi phng n.
Tnh ngha ca cc h s b c kim nh theo chun Student (t)
xc nh nh sau :
bj
j
j
S
b
t = (4.21)
Trong : b
j
l h s th j trong phng trnh hi qui tnh theo (4.19).
S
bj
: lch qun phng ca h s j c xc nh theo cng thc
(4.20)
Cc bc kim tra c tin hnh nh mc kim nh thng k
(chng 2)
Cng thc (4.21) xc nh c S
bj
ng vi mi phng n thc
nghim.
1 Phng n thc nghim ti tm
38
Khi hon tt 2
k
th nghm nhn phng n, ngi nghin cu phi
lm thm m (m t nht bng 3) th nghim tm phng n vi cc gi tr ng
vi th nghim tm l:
0
1
Y ,
0
2
Y ,
0
3
Y ...

Phng sai ti hin c xc nh:
S
th
2
=
( )
1
1
2
0 0

=
m
Y Y
m
i
i
i = 1,2,3...m (4.22)
S
th
=
2
th
S (4.23)
Trong : Y
i
0
l gi tr o c ln lp th i

0
Y l gi tr trung bnh ca m ln o
m : s ln lp
Thay (4.23) vo (4.20) tm c gi tr S
bj
.
2 Phng n th nghim song song
Ti mi im th nghim c lp li m ln.Trc khi tnh ton h s b
v kim nh cc thng s thng k phi kim tra s ng nht ca cc phng
sai theo chun Cohoren (G), ch c php c lng cc sai s khi phng sai
ng nht.
Phng sai ti hin ca mt cuc th nghim:
S
th
2
=
( )
) 1 (
1
2
1

= =
m N
Y Y
m
i
i i
N
u
(4.24)
Phng sai phn phi trung bnh ca mt cuc th nghim
S
th
2
(Y ) =
m
S
th
2
(4.25)
Phng sai ca h s b
j

S
bj
2
=
N
Y S
th
) (
2
(4.26)
Sai s chun ( lch qun phng) ca h s b
j


S
bj
=
N
Y S
th
) (
(4.27)
Sau khi kim tra ngha ca cc h s b
j
, vit PTHQ vi cc h s c
ngha v kim tra tng thch ca phng trnh hi qui vi thc nghim.
4.1.1.5. Kim tra s tng thch ca PTHQ vi thc nghim
39
S tng thch ca PTHQ vi thc nghim c kim nh theo chun
Fisher (E).Cc bc kim tra c trnh by mc kim nh thng k (chng
2).
2
2
th
tt
S
S
F =
(4.30)
i vi phng n th nghim ti tm

tt
N
U
u u
tt
f
Y Y
S

=
1
2
)
~
(
(4.31)
Phng n th nghim song song,vi ln lp mi im thc nghim l
m

tt
N
u
u u
tt
f
Y Y m
S

=
1
2
2
)
~
( .
(4.32)

u u
Y Y , : l gi tr thc nghim.
Y
u
: gi tr tnh theo PTHQ.
f
tt
: t do ng vi phng sai tng thch (S
tt
2
).
f
tt
=N-L
N : s th nghim trong phng n.
L : s h s c ngha c kim tra mc (4.1.1.4).
Sau khi kim tra nu PTQH tng thch vi thc nghim s c s
dng tm kim ti u. Nu khng ph hp s phi xem xt li tng bc ca
bi qui hoch v chn m t ton hc mc cao hn.

4.1.2. Thc nghim yu t tng phn TYP 2
k-p

m t qu trnh thc nghim th qui hoch thc nghim yu t ton
phn TYT 2
k
khng hiu qu khi s yu t k kh ln. S yu t k tng chm m
s th nghim tng qu nhanh (N=2
k
) v s c rt nhiu bc t do kim tra s
tng thch ca PTHQ vi thc nghim.
Tht kh khn v kinh t khi phi thc hin 1 cuc th nghim TYT 2
k

m yu t k>4.
40
V vy s gim ng k s th nghim nu ta dng thc nghim yu t
tng phn (li gii tng phn) m ngi nghin cu vn thu c m hnh th
nghim m t tng thch qu trnh th nghim.
K hiu: TYP 2
k-p

Trong :
2: l 2 mc ca mi yu t nh hng
k: s yu t nh hng
p: c trng cho mc tng phn
4.1.2.1. Xy dng m hnh thng k thc nghim
4.1.2.2 Cch t chc th nghim trong phng n thc nghim tng phn
N=2
k-p

S th nghim trong phng n tng phn bng
p
2
1
bng TYT 2
k

4.1.2.3. Cng thc tnh h s b trong PTHQ ca qui hoch phn bng TYP
2
k-p

cho li gii tng phn l mt phng n trc giao ta cn chn
phng n thc nghim yu t ton phn c s yu t nh hng nh hn lm
mc c s.
c p dng ging nh trong qui hoch TYT 2
k

b
0
=
u
N
u
u
X Y
N
0
1
1

=

b
j
=
ju
N
u
u
X Y
N

=1
1

u = 1,2,.,N
j = 1,2,..,k
4.1.2.4.Cc bc thc hin qui hoch phn bng
1/ Trng hp k=3, p=1
- Lp qui hoch v xy dng ma trn TYT 2
2
.
- Thay ct c hiu ng tng tc bng hiu ng tuyn tnh (x
1
x
2
=x
3
).
- Lm 4 th nghim v dng kt qu ca 4 th nghim tnh h s b
0
, b
1
,
b
2
, b
3
.
41
- Sau khi lm 4 th nghim u, v mt l do no ngi nghin cu cho
rng tng tc cp c ngha th lm 4 th nghim ca na bng cn li, nhng
ln ny thay yu t b sung x
3
= -x
1
x
2
. Nh vy qui hoch s cn na bng.
x
3
= x
1
x
2

x
3
= -x
1
x
2

2/ Trng hp k=4, p=1
- Lp qui hoch TYT 2
3

- Thay x
3
= x
1
x
2
x
3

- Lm 8 th nghim v s dng kt qu ca 8 th nghim tnh h s b
0
,
b
1
, b
2
, b
3
, b
4
.
Nh vy qui hoch phn bng vi 2 na bng khi thay x
4
= x
1
x
2
x
3

3/ Trng hp k=5, p=2
Lp qui hoch TYT 2
3
.
- Thay x
4
= x
1
x
2
, (b qua tng tc x
1
x
2
), x
5
= x
1
x
2
x
3
(b qua tng tc
x
1
x
2
x
3
).
- Lm 8 th nghim v dng kt qu ca th nghim xc nh h s
b0 v 5 h s cn li.
- Qui hoch phn bng vi 4 phn bng nh sau:
1 {
2 1 4
x x x = , }
3 2 1 5
x x x x =
2 {
2 1 4
x x x = , }
3 2 1 5
x x x x =
3 {
2 1 4
x x x = , }
3 2 1 5
x x x x =
4 {
2 1 4
x x x = , }
3 2 1 5
x x x x =
42
4.2. QUY HOCH TRC GIAO CP II

CC BC QUY HOCH TRC GIAO CP II


6. XC NH MIN BIN THIN Z
j
min
< Z
j
< Z
j
max

v TM QUY HOCH : Z
j
o
= 0.5(Z
j
min
+ Z
j
max
)
7. CHN DNG PHNG TRNH HI QUY
sau khi m ha : x
j
= 2( Z
j
- Z
j
o
) / ( Z
j
max
- Z
j
min
)
y
1
= b
0
+ b
1
x
1
+ ..+ b
k
x
k
+ b
12
x
1
x
2
+ + b
11
x
1
2
+ + b
kk
x
k
2

8. THC HIN N TH NGHIM N = 2
k
+ 2k +n
o

Trong : - 2
k
th nghim ca QHTG cp I
vi cc Z
j
= Z
j
min
hoc Z
j
= Z
j
max

- 2k th nghim ti cc im sao : x
j
=
TG
hoc x
j
= -
TG

- n
o
th nghim ti tm Z
j
= Z
j
o
9. TNH TON XC NH CC H S HI QUY b
j

bng phng php Bnh phng cc tiu
10. KIM NH S C NGHA CA CC H S HI QUY b
j

vi chun Student
Thc hin cc th nghim ti tm quy hoch hoc s dng cc th
nghim song song. Loi b cc b
j
khng c ngha, tnh ton li cc b
j
v
kim nh li cho ti khi ch cn cc b
j
c ngha
11. KIM NH S C NGHA CA PHNG TRNH HI
QUY vi chun Fisher

43
4.3. Ti u ha qui hoch thc nghim
Bc 1
- Xc nh mt im xut pht nm trong min gii hn tng th ca
cc bin u vo. Chn im lm mc c bn, chn khong bin thin ca
tng bin xc nh min gii hn ca quy hoch thc nghim trc giao
cp mt.
Bc 2
- Lm cc th nghim theo quy hoch trc giao cp mt
- Xy dng phng trnh hi quy bc nht .
Nu phng trnh hi quy bc nht khng tng thch th chuyn ti thc
hin bc 4 .
Nu phng trnh hi quy bc nht tng thch th thc hin bc 3.
Bc 3
- Xc nh vect gradient ca hm mc tiu ti mc c bn v xut pht
t mc c bn xc nh ta cc im thc nghim nm cch u nhau trn
hng ca vect gradient vi khong cch t chn ph hp vi i tng
nghin cu. Lm thc nghim xc nh mt im c gi tr hm mc tiu tt
nht trn hng gradient. Chn im tm c lm im xut pht mi v quay
v bc 2 .
Bc 4
- Lm cc th nghim theo quy hoch cp hai (trc giao hoc quay).
Bc 5
- Xy dng phng trnh hi quy bc hai.
- Nu phng trnh hi quy bc hai khng tng thch th chuyn ti thc
hin bc 6 .
- Nu phng trnh hi quy bc hai tng thch th thc hin bc 7.
Bc 6
- Thu hp khong bin thin ca cc bin u vo ri quay v bc 5.
Bc 7
44
- Tm cc tr ca hm mc tiu thu c dng phng trnh hi quy bc
hai thu c bc 5 v lm li thc nghim kim chng v nh gi kt
qu.
4.3.1. Ti u ha theo phng php leo dc
Bc 1: Chn im xut pht X
(0)
(x
1
(0)
,

, x
n
(0)
)
Chn cc gi tr
y
> 0

v
x
> 0
Xc nh y(X
(0)
)

Bc 2: Xc nh vect gradient ti im X
(0)

Bc 3 : Chn s dng;
T im X
(0)
xc nh X
(1)
:


0
1
) 0 (
1
) 1 (
1
X X
x
y
x x
=

=



0
2
) 0 (
2
) 1 (
2
X X
x
y
x x
=

=

. . . . . . . . . . . . . .

0
) 0 ( ) 1 (
X X
n
n n
x
y
x x
=

=

( du + khi tm max , du - khi tm min )
Xc nh y(X
(1)
)
Bc 4: So snh y(X
(1)
) vi y(X
(0)
).
Nu y(X
(1)
) tt hn y(X
(0)
) tip tc lp li bc 3 leo dc ti X
(2)
,

X
(3)
, ,

X
(k)

45
Nu y(X
(k)
) xu hn y(X
(k-1)
) Thc hin php gn X
(1)
= X
(k-1)
v
y
(1)
= y(X
(k-1)
), sau chuyn sang bc 5

Bc 5: Kim tra iu kin dng:
y
y y
) 0 ( ) 1 (
hoc / v
x n n
x x x x + +
2 ) 0 ( ) 1 ( 2 ) 0 (
1
) 1 (
1
) ( ... ) (
(*)
- Nu (*) khng tha mn:
+ Chn X
(1)
lm im xut pht mi ( ni cch khc : thc hin php gn
X
(0)
= X
(1)
v y
(0)
= y
(1)
)
+ Quay li bc 2
- Nu (*) tha mn kt lun : y

t gi tr ti u ti X
(1)

4.3.2. Phng php lun phin tng bin gii bi ton ti u phng nh

* Bc 1: Chn im xut pht X
(0)
(x
1
(0)
,

, x
n
(0)
),
Chn cc gi tr
y
> 0

v
x
> 0


Lm thc nghim xc nh gi tr y
(0)
* Bc 2: Thc hin n phin gii bi ton ti u ln lt vi tng bin x
i

t im xut pht X
(0)
(x
1
(0)
,

, x
n
(0)
) tm ra im X
(1)
(x
1
(1)
, x
2
(1)
,

, x
n
(1)
)
tt hn.
- Phin 1: C nh (n-1) bin, gii bi ton ti u vi bin cn li (gi s
x
1
) khi cho x
1
chy trong min gi tr ca n. Gi s y tt nht ti X
(*1)
= (x
1
(1)
,
x
2
(0)
, x
3
(0)
,, x
n
(0)
)
- Phin 2: Tin hnh tng t vi bin x
2
(c nh cc bin cn li trong
x
1
= x
1
(1)
). Tm c gi tr y tt nht ti im X
(*2)
= (x
1
(1)
,
x
2
(1)
, x
3
(0)
,, x
n
(0)
) .
- Phin th k : Gii bi ton ti u vi bin x
k
(c nh cc bin cn li
trong x
1
= x
1
(1)
,, x
k-1
= x
k-1
(1)
,

x
k+1
= x
k+1
(0)
,

x
n
= x
n
(0)
,

). Tm c gi tr y
tt nht ti im X
(*k)
= (x
1
(1)
, ,

x
k
(1)
, x
k+1
(0)
,, x
n
(0)
) .
46
- Phin th n : Gii bi ton ti u vi bin x
n
(c nh cc bin cn li
trong x
1
= x
1
(1)
, , x
k-1
= x
k-1
(1)
,

x
k+1
= x
k+1
(0)
, ,

x
n
= x
n
(0)
,

). Tm c gi
tr y tt nht ti im X
(*n)
= (x
1
(1)
, ,

x
k
(1)
, x
k+1
(1)
,, x
n
(1)
) .
t X
(1)
= X
(*n)
; y
(1)
= y(X
(1)
)

* Bc 3: Kim tra iu kin dng:
y
y y
) 0 ( ) 1 (
hoc/v
x n n
x x x x + +
2 ) 0 ( ) 1 ( 2 ) 0 (
1
) 1 (
1
) ( ... ) (
(*)
trong y
(1)
= y(X
(1)
) = y(x
1
(1)
, , x
n
(1)
)
- Nu (*) khng tha mn:
+ Chn X
(1)
lm im xut pht mi ( ni cch khc : thc hin php gn
X
(0)
= X
(1)
v y
(0)
= y
(1)
)
+ Quay li bc 2
- Nu (*) tha mn: kt lun y

t gi tr ti u ti X
(1)


47
Chng 5. NG DNG QUY HOCH THC NGHIM TRONG
CC QU TRNH CNG NGH HA HC
5.1. Bi ton 1.
Mc ch: Nghin cu ti u ho quy trnh c nh t bo nm men
bng Alginat ln men ru.
Quy trnh cng ngh c m t theo s (trang 1).
Nghin cu cc yu t nh hng n mng li gel: nng alginat;
nng glucose; nng t bo:




Sau qu trnh ln men, vt cc ht gel ra v xc nh t l (%) ht gel b
nt. T l ht gel b nt cng thp cng tt ngha l ht gel cng chc cng tt.
Hm mc tiu: Y = Y(Z
1
,Z
2
,Z
3
)
Bi ton ti u: Xc nh nng alginat; nng glucose; nng t
bo nm men ht gel bn nht trong qu trnh ln men ru bng t bo nm
men, c nh bng alginat.
Ymin = min Y(Z
1
,Z
2
,Z
3
)
Sau khi tin hnh cc th nghim thm d, tc gi chn vng kho st
nh sau:
Z
1
= 1 4%
Z
2
= 10 18%
Z
3
= 10 20%
y l bi ton ti u phng nh, gii bi ton theo phng php leo dc.
Phng n qui hoch thc nghim: phng php trc giao cp 1.
S th nghim phi lm: 2
k
=2
3
=8
Vi Z
1min
=1 Z
1
4=Z
1max

Z
2min
=10 Z
2
18=Z
2max

Z
3min
=10 Z
3
20=Z
3max

im xut pht tm phng n:
Z
0
= (2.5; 14; 15)
Z
1
Nng alginat
Z
2
Nng glucose T l ht gel b nt Y(%)
Z
3
Nng t bo

Ln men trong dung
dch ng glucose
bng t bo nm
men c nh
48
Gi tr ca hm mc tiu ti im Z
0
c xc nh bng thc nghim:
Y(Z
0
) = 7.5
Ma trn thc nghim c b tr nh sau:
S
TN Z
1
Z
2
Z
3
Y
1 4 18 20 12.35
2 4 18 10 8.87
3 4 10 20 12.08
4 4 10 10 6.92
5 1 18 20 42.13
6 1 18 10 13.51
7 1 10 20 22.19
8 1 10 10 4.57

Phng trnh hi qui c dng:
Y = B
0
+ B
1
Z
1
+ B
2
Z
2
+ B
3
Z
3

Trong h m ho khng th nguyn ta c c:
Mc trn: - k hiu +1
Mc c s: - k hiu 0
Mc di: - k hiu 1
Cng thc chuyn t h n v thc qua n v m ho khng th nguyn:
j
0
j j
j
Z
Z Z
X

=
; j = 1, ..., k
2
Z Z
Zj
min
j
max
j

=
; j = 1, ..., k
Thu c ma trn thc nghim vi cc bin m nh sau:
S
TN
X
0
X
1
X
2
X
3
Y
1 1 1 1 1 12.35
2 1 1 1 -1 8.87
49
3 1 1 -1 1 12.08
4 1 1 -1 -1 6.92
5 1 -1 1 1 42.13
6 1 -1 1 -1 13.51
7 1 -1 -1 1 22.19
8 1 -1 -1 -1 4.57

T kt qu thc nghim, tnh ton cc h s Bj:
N
Yi
B
n
i

=
=
1
0

N
Y X
B
n
i
i ij
i

=
=
1

N
X X
B
n
i
i j
j

=
=
1
i 1
1
.Y ) . (

T s liu thc nghim trn, p dng cc cng thc trn ta xc nh c
gi tr B
0
, B
1
, B
2
v B
3
thu c kt qu:

B
1
B
2
B
3
B
0

-5.2725 3.8875 6.86 15.3275

tnh phng sai ti hin, tc gi lm thm 3 th nghim tm.
Kt qu cc th nghim tm:
N
0
Y
u
0

0
Y
Y
u
0
-
0
Y
(Y
u
0
-
0
Y )
2

(Y
u
0
-
0
Y )
2

1 5.65 -1.8533 3.43472
2 7.19 -0.3133 0.09818
3 9.67

7.50333

2.1667 4.69459
8.22749
Phng sai ti hin c tnh theo cng thc:
50
2
1
0 0 2
) (
1
1

=
m
i
i th
Y Y
m
S

1
) (
1
2 0 0

=

=
m
Y Y
S
m
i
i
th

trong m l s th nghim tm phng n.
- S c ngha ca h s hi quy c kim nh theo tiu chun Student:
i b
S
i
b
ti =

b
i
: l h s th i trong phng trnh hi quy.
S
bi
: lch qun phng ca h s th i.
N
S
S
th
b
i
=

Phng sai ti hin: S
2
th
= 4.11
kim nh ngha cc h s, tc gi tnh cc h s t
j
(theo cng thc
trang 5), thu c kt qu sau:
t
0
t
1
t
2
t
3

21.3746 7.35263 5.42122 9.56644

Tra bng phn phi phn v Student vi mc ngha p = 0.05, f = N
0
-1 = 2
ta c t
0.05
(2) = 4.3. Vy cc h s t
j
u ln hn t
0.05
(2) nn cc h s ca
phng trnh hi qui u c ngha.
Phng trnh hi qui c dng sau:

L
=15.3275-5.2725X1+3.8875X2+6.86X3
Kim nh s tng thch ca phng trnh hi qui vi thc nghim:
STT
L
Y
i

Y
i
-

L

(Y
i
-

L
)
2

1 20.81 12.35 -8.46 71.5716
2 7.09 8.87 1.78 3.1684
3 13.03 12.08 -0.95 0.9025
4 -0.69 6.92 7.61 57.9121
51
5 31.35 42.13 10.78 116.208
6 17.63 13.51 -4.12 16.9744
7 23.57 22.19 -1.38 1.9044
8 9.85 4.57 -5.28 27.8784
Phng sai d (theo cng thc trang 5):
L N
Y Y
S
N
i
i i
du

=

=1
2
^
2
) (


(N l s th nghim, L l h s ngha)
Ta c: S
2
d
= 74.13
Tiu chun Fisher:
F= S
2
d
/ S
2
th
= 74.13/4.1 = 18.08
Tra bng phn v phn b Fisher vi p = 0.05; f
1
= N-L = 4; f
2
= N
0
-1 = 2;
ta c:
F
1-p
= F
0.095
(4,2) = 19.3. Vy F < F
0.95
(4;2). Phng trnh hi qui tng
thch vi thc nghim.
*Ti u ho thc nghim bng phng php leo dc tm gi tr Y
min
.


2. NHN XT
- Tc gi xc nh hm mc tiu, bi ton ti u v phng n qui hoch
trc giao cp 1 l ph hp. Cc s liu c tc gi tnh ton hu nh khng sai
lch so vi cc s liu c tnh ton li.
- Tuy nhin, cc s liu thc nghim (Yi) bin thin bt hp l (khng theo
qui lut tuyn tnh). ng thi, ba gi tr Y
0
ca th nghim ti tm sai lch
nhau qu nhiu v khc rt xa so vi h s B
0
. (V nu cc s liu thc nghim
ng tin cy v tnh ton chnh xc th Y
0
phi xp x B
0
) v gi tr trung bnh
ca chng l 7.503. Cc cng thc v php tnh c kim tra li l ng, v
vy c th ni cc s liu thc nghim Yi cha c chnh xc.
52
- C th thc hin bi tan ti u vi h s tng tc.

53
5.2.Bi ton 2.
1. Nghin cu nh hng ca mt s yu t cng ngh n qu trnh chit
tch anthocyanin
1.1. nh hng ca t l dung mi
Nghin cu nh hng ca t l dung mi n hm lng v mu
anthocyanin thu c. Ngi N/C lm 6 th nghim trong cc iu kin nh
sau:
-Nhit chit: 30
0
C
-Thi gian chit: 45 pht
-Chit trong h dung mi c t l dung mi nc: ethanol thay i nh
bng 1.
Bng1. Cc thng s ban u v kt qu th nghim
S
TT
%
V
nc

%
V
ethanol

T l
nc / ethanol
Hm lng %
anthocyanin,
mu
1
8
0
20 4/1 0,827 3,53
2
7
0
30 7/3 0.890 3,50
3
6
0
40 3/2 0.870 3,46
4
5
0
50 1/1 0,857 3,40
5
4
0
60 2/3 0,845 3,37
6
3
0
70 3/7 0,840 3.34





54
Hnh 1: Biu biu din nh hng ca t l dung
mi n hm lng v mu anthocyanin
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
1 2 3 4 5 6
%

a
n
t
h
o
c
y
a
n
i
n
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4

u
% anthocyanin
mu
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
3
0

p
h

t
4
5

p
h

t
6
0

p
h

t
7
5

p
h

t
9
0

p
h

t
%

a
n
t
h
o
c
y
a
n
i
n
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4

u
% anthocyanin
mu
Hnh 2: Biu biu din nh hng ca thi gian chit n hm
lng v mu anthocyanin thu c














1.2. nh hng ca thi gian chit
Tin hnh 5 th nghim trong cc iu kin sau:
- Nhit chit: 30
0
C
- Chit trong dung mi c t l nc: ethanol l 7/3
- Thi gian thay i t 30- 90 pht.













55
Hnh 3: Biu biu din nh hng ca nhit n hm
lng v mu anthocyanin
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
3
0
o
C
4
0
o
C
5
0
o
C
6
0
o
C
7
0
o
C
%

a
n
t
h
o
c
y
a
n
i
n
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4

u
% anthocyanin
mu
1.3. nh hng ca nhit
Nghin cu nh hng ca nhit , tin hnh 5 th nghim trong cng
iu kin:
- Chit trong h dung mi c t l nc: ethanol l 7/3
- Thi gian chit: 45 pht.
- Nhit chit thay i t 30
0
C 70
0
C. Cc thng s c th v kt qu
c th hin trn biu hnh (3).













Qua nghin cu nh hng ca mt s yu t cng ngh n kh nng thu
nhn anthocyanin chng ti nhn thy: Dung mi, t l dung mi, thi gian
chit, nhit chit u nh hng n kh nng chit tch anthocyanin t bp
ci tm. ng vi mi iu kin khc nhau chng ti thu c anthocyanin c
hm lng v mu khc nhau. T cc kt qu nghin cu chng ti chn
c min kho st thch hp ca cc yu t cng ngh cho cc nghin cu tip
theo nh sau:
- Chit trong h dung mi c t l nc: ethanol dao ng t 7/3 1/1
- Nhit chit t 3040
0
C
- Thi gian chit trong khong 4575 pht
56
2. Ti u ho iu kin chit tch anthocyanin c mu cao t bp ci
tm
Vi mc ch ca ti l thu nhn v s dng cht mu anthocyanin,
chng ti tin hnh ti u ho iu kin chit tch trong khun kh bi ton
ti u a mc tiu thu nhn cht mu anthocyanin c hm lng v mu
cao nht.
2.1 Chn cc yu t nh hng
Trong qu trnh chit tch anthocyanin phi chu tc ng ca nhiu yu
t cng ngh, song y chng ti chn 3 yu t c thm d phn trn:
- Z
1
: Nhit chit,
0
C
- Z
2
: Thi gian chit, pht
- Z
3
: T l nc trong h dung mi,%
- Y
1
: Hm lng anthocyanin, %
- Y
2
: mu
Phng trnh biu din mi quan h c dng:
Y
1
= f ( Z
1
, Z
2
, Z
3
) Y2 = (Z
1
, Z
2
, Z
3
)
Y
1
Max Y2 Max
Y1 l hm mc tiu hm lng Y2 Hm mc tiu mu.
2.2 Cc bc thc hin bi ton quy hoch
2.2.1 Chn phng n quy hoch
xc nh hng i ca ti v nhanh chng tin ti min ti u chng
ti chn phng n quy hoch trc giao cp I (TYT 2
k
) thc nghim yu t ton
phn 2 mc, k yu t nh hng.
Phng trnh hi qui c dng:
Y = b
0
+ b
1
x
1
+ b
2
x
2
+ b
3
x
3
+ b
12
x
1
x
2
+ b
13
x
1
x
3
+ b
23
x
2
x
3
+ b
123
x
1
x
2
x
3
(1 )
Trong :
b
0
: H s hi qui.
b
1
, b
2
, b
3
: H s tuyn tnh
b
12
, b
23
, b
13
: H s tng tc i
b
123
: H s tng tc ba
Mi h s b c trng cho nh hng ca cc yu t n qu trnh chit
tch.
57
2.2.2. T chc th nghim trc giao cp I
Theo [1] s th nghim trong phng n l 2
k
= 8, (k = 3) v iu kin th
nghim c ghi bng (2).
Bng 2 : iu kin th nghim c chn:
Cc yu t nh hng
Cc mc
Z
1
,
0
C Z
2
, pht Z
3
, %V
Mc trn (+1) 40 75 70
Mc c s (0) 35 60 60
Mc di (-1) 30 45 50
Khong bin
thin
5 15 10
T cch chn phng n v iu kin th nghim, chng ti xy dng ma
trn thc nghim theo bin m v tin hnh th nghim theo ma trn.
Kt qu c ghi bng (3)
Bng 3. Ma trn thc nghim trc giao cp I, k=3, v kt qu
STT Bin m
x
1
x
2
x
3
x
1
x
2
x
1
x
3
x
2
x
3
x
1
x
2
x
3

Y
1
Y
2

1 + + + + + + + 0,975 3,433
2 _ + + _ _ + _ 1,102 4,525
3 + _ + _ + _ _ 0,849 4,255
4 _ _ + + _ _ + 1,109 4,987
5 + + _ + _ _ _ 0,854 2,007
6 _ + _ _ + _ + 0,717 3,988
7 + _ _ _ _ + + 0,944 3,205
8 _ _ _ + + + _ 0,813 3,767
T
1
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0,915 3,834
T
2
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0,935 3,991
T
3
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0,955 3,773
Trong :
- x
1
: Nhit chit,
0
C
- x
2
: Thi gian chit, pht
- x
3
: T l nc trong h dung mi,%
- Y
1
: Hm mc tiu hm lng anthocyanin,%
- Y
2
: Hm mc tiu mu.
2.2.3 Xy dng m t ton hc cho hm mc tiu hm lng anthocyanin
58
a) Chn phng trnh hi qui:
Phng trnh hi qui c chn theo phng trnh (1) mc 2.2.1.
Cc h s b1, b2, b3...b123 c tnh theo s liu thc nghim hm mc
tiu hm lng anthocyanin (Y
1
).
b) Tnh h s b:
V phng n c chn l quy hoch trc giao, theo [1] cc h s bj trong
phng trnh hi qui (1) c xc nh theo cng thc sau:
b
j
= ) (
1
1
u
N
u
ju
y x
N

=
vi : j = (1, k )
b
ij
=
u ju
N
u
iu
y x x
N
) (
1
1

i j = (1, k ) (2)
bijk =
u ku ju
N
u
iu
y x x x
N
) (
1
1

=
i j k = (1, k )
T s liu thc nghim bng (3), p dng cc cng thc (2) ta tnh c
cc h s b:
b
0
= 0,9208 b
12
= 0,017
b
1
= -0.07 b
13
= -0,0255
b
2
= 0,0488 b
23
= -0,019
b
3
= 0,088 b
123
= 0,0155
c) Kim nh mc ngha ca cc h s b trong phng trnh 3.1
Cc h s c kim nh theo tiu chun Student (t)
j
b
j
j
S
b
t = (3)
So snh t
j
vi t
p
(f) . Trong : - t
p
(f) l chun student tra bng ng
vi xc sut tin cy p v bc t do f, f = n
0
1.
b
j
: l h s trong phng trnh hi quy chn.
S
bj
l lch ca cc h s b
j

Nu t
j
> t
p
(f) th h s b
j
c ngha.
Nu t
j
< t
p
(f) th h s b
j
b loi khi phng trnh.
kim nh theo chun Student (t) ta thay h s b
j
, S
bj
vo cng thc
(3.3) ta c cc gi tr t
j
:
t
0
= 130,21 t
12
= 2,510
t
1
= 10,01 t
13
= 3,606
59
t
2
= 6,894 t
23
= 2,687
t
3
= 12,445 t
123
= 2,192
Tra bng tiu chun Student ta c t
p
(f
th
) = t
0,05
(2) = 4,3
Do t
12
< t
p
(f
th
), t
13
< t
p
(f
th
), t
23
< t
p
(f
th
), t
123
< t
p
(f
th
) nn cc h s b
12
, b
13
, b
23
,
b
123
loi ra khi phng trnh. Phng trnh ng hc c dng:
y
1
= 0,9208 - 0,07x
1
+ 0,04875x
2
+ 0,088x
3
(4)
d) Kim nh s ph hp ca phng trnh hi qui vi thc nghim
S tng thch ca phng trnh vi thc nghim c kim nh
theo tiu chun Fisher (F).
2
th
2
d
S
S
F = =

7,8406
Tra bng tiu chun Fisher ta c F
1-
p( f
1
, f
2
) = F
0,95
(4,2) = 19,3
Ta c F < F
1-p
. Vy m hnh ton hc chn ph hp vi thc nghim.
2.2.4 Ti u ho thc nghim thu c hm lng anthocyanin cao nht
a) Tnh cc bc chuyn ng
j
:
T mc c s Z
0
j
,

v phng trnh hi qui tuyn tnh i vi hm mc
tiu hm lng chng ti tnh bc chuyn ng
j
(j = 1, 2, 3) cho mi yu t.
Kt qu c ghi bng 4.
Bng 4. Kt qu tnh bc chuyn ng
j
ca cc yu t
Cc yu t nh hng
Cc mc
Z
1
,
0
C
Z
2
,
pht
Z
3
,
%
Mc c s 35 60 60
Khong bin thin (
j
)
5 15 10
H s bj -0,070 0,048 0.088
bj
j

-0,350 0,731 0,88
Bc chuyn ng (
j
)
-1,980 4,150 5
Lm trn -2 4 5
Theo bng s liu (4) ta c :
max
3 3
b = 0,88, theo ti liu [1]
Chn bc chuyn ng =
3
0,5 .
3
= 0,5.10 =5.
Cc bc chuyn ng ca yu t x
1
, x
2
c tnh:
60

3 3
1 1
3 1

=
b
b
= -1,98

3 3
2 2
3 2

=
b
b
= 4,1

b) T chc th nghim leo dc:
T kt qu cc bc chuyn ng
j
bng (4), chng ti t chc th
nghim leo dc v im xut pht t tm thc nghim.
Th nghim theo hng chn, kt qu c biu din bng 5.
Bng 5: Kt qu th nghim theo hng leo dc

Yu t

TN
Z
1
,
0
C
Z
2
,
pht
Z
3
,
%
y
1
,% y
2

1( Tn ti
tm )
35 60 60 0,927
2 33 64 65 0.962
3 31 68 70 0,985
4 29 72 75 1,113 4,720
5 27 76 80 0,997
Nhn vo bng 5, kt qu th nghim tt nht th nghim th t. Ti nhit
chit 29
0
C, thi gian chit 72 pht, t l nc trong h dung mi l 75%
chng ti thu c hm lng anthocyanin cao nht l 1,113 %. Ti th nghim
ny, chng ti xc nh mu ca anthocyanin l: 4,720. y cha phi l
mu thu c cao nht. V th, chng ti tin hnh tm iu kin chit tch ti
u thu c anthocyanin c mu cao.
2.2.5 Xy dng m t ton hc vi hm mc tiu mu.
a) Chn phng trnh hi qui:
Phng trnh hi qui c chn theo phng trnh (1) mc 2.2.1. Cc h
s b1, b2, b3...b123 c tnh theo s liu thc nghim hm mc tiu mu
(Y
2
).
b) Kim tra mc ngha ca h s b trong phng trnh hi qui:
61
Sau khi kim tra mc ngha ca cc h s b ta c: t
13
< t
p
(f
th
), t
23
< t
p
(f
th
),
t
123
< t
p
(f
th
) nn cc h s b
13
, b
23
, b
123
b loi ra khi phng trnh.
Phng trnh hi qui c dng:
=

y 3,7709 - 0,55x
1
0,2826x
2
+ 0,5291x
3
0,2224x
1
x
2
(5)
c) Kim nh s ph hp ca phng trnh hi qui vi thc nghim:
Cc bc kim tra c trnh by ph lc 6.
Sau khi kim tra ta c phng trnh hi qui (5) ph hp vi thc nghim.
2.2.6: Ti u ho thc nghim thu c anthocyanin c mu cao.
Sau khi kim tra phng trnh hi quy ph hp vi thc nghim,
chng ti tin hnh ti u ho thc nghim bng phng php leo dc thu
c anthocyanin c mu cao.
* Tnh bc chuyn ng ca cc yu t
Cng t mc c s Z
j
v phng trnh hi qui i vi hm mc tiu
mu. Chng ti tnh bc chuyn ng
j
(j = 1, 2, 3) tng t nh mc 2.2.3.
Kt qu c th hin bng 6.
Bng 6: Tnh bc chuyn ng
j
ca cc yu t
Cc yu t
Cc mc
Z
1
,
0
C
Z
2
,
pht
Z
3
, %
Mc c s 35 60 60
Khong bin thin (
j
)
5 15 10
H s bj -0,55
-
0,2826
0,5291
bj
j

-2,57
-
4,239
5,29
Bc chuyn ng (
j
)
-2,07 -3,2 4
Lm trn -2 -3 4
*T chc th nghim leo dc cho hm mc tiu mu:
62
T bc chuyn ng
j
(j = 1, 2, 3) bng 3.10 chng ti t chc th
nghim theo hng leo dc, vi im xut pht l mc c s Z
0
j
(Z
0
1
, Z
0
2,
Z
0
3
).
Chng ti thc

hin th nghim theo hng chn. Kt qu biu din bng 7.
Bng 7: Kt qu th nghim theo hng leo dc
T kt qu thc nghim theo hng leo dc bng 7. Chng ti nhn thy
ti th nghim th t cho kt qu tt nht. mu t gi tr 5,001, vi iu
kin cng ngh: nhit 29
0
C, thi gian 51 pht, t l nc trong h dung mi
72%. Ti th nghim ny, chng ti xc nh hm lng anthocyanin l 0,975.
2.3. Ti u ho hm a mc tiu bng phng php chp tuyn tnh.
Qu trnh chit tch cht mu anthocyanin c mu cao t bp ci tm
c c trng bi hai phng trnh (4), (5). Hai phng trnh ny th hin s
tc ng ca cc yu t cng ngh n hm lng v mu anthocyanin thu
c.
Khi c s thay i ca b s liu (x
1
, x
2
, x
3
) trong bng ma trn thc
nghim (56) th cho cc gi tr thc nghim y
1
, y
2
khc nhau v y
1max
, y
2max
cng
khc nhau.
Vi mc ch thu nhn cht mu anthocyanin c hm lng v mu
cao, nhim v ca chng ti phi ti u ho hm a mc tiu tm gii php

Yu t
TN
Z
1
,
0
C
Z
2
,
pht
Z
3
,
%
y
2
y
1

1( Tn ti
tm )
35 60 60 3,991
2 33 57 64 4,403
3 31 54 68 4,927
4 29 51 72 5,001 0,975
5 27 48 75 4,872
63
cng ngh thc tin tt cho c hai hm mc tiu, ng thi nng cao tnh ton
din v tnh thuyt phc cho kt qu thu c.
Thc t khng th c mt nghim chung cho c hai qu trnh t c
y
1max
, y
2max
m ch tm c nghim tho hip (x
1
, x
2
, x
3
) cc gi tr y
1
, y
2

nm gn y
1max
, y
2max
. tm c nghim tho hip chng ti s dng phng
php chp tuyn tnh :
y
L
=
1
y
1
+
2
y
2

Trong :
-
1
l h s quan trng ng vi hm mc tiu hm lng (y
1
)
-
2
l h s quan trng ng vi hm mc tiu mu (y
2
)
Vi mc ch thu nhn cht mu anthocyanin ng dng lm cht ch th
trong ho phn tch. chng ti u tin cho hm mc tiu hm lng.
Chn: -
1
= 0,6,
2
= 0,4
Ta c phng trnh hm a mc tiu : y
L
= 0,6y
1
+ 0,4y
2

Cc h s ca phng trnh hi quy c tnh theo bng 8
Bng 8. Tnh h s ca phng trnh hi quy
H s b y
1
y
2
y
L

b
0
0,928 3,7709 2,06
b
1
-0,07 -0,55 -0,262
b
2
0,04875 -0,2826 -0,0837
b
3
0,088 0,5291 0,2644
b
12
-0,2223 -0,22
Ta c phng trnh hi quy:
y
L
= 2,06 0,262x
1
- 0,08379x
2
+ 0,2644x
3
0,222x
1
x
2
( 6 )
Tin hnh ti u ha hm a mc tiu tm gii php cng ngh thc tin
ph hp.
*Tnh cc bc chuyn ng
j
: cho HMT y
L
Cng tng t nh mc 2.2.3, chng ti tnh bc chuyn ng
j
(
3 2 1
, , ) cho cc yu t nh hng. Kt qu c biu din bng 9.
Bng 9. Tnh bc chuyn ng ca cc mc yu t
64














* T chc th nghim leo dc cho hm mc tiu Y
L
:
Bng 10: Kt qu th nghim theo hng leo dc ca hm chp Y
L

Cc yu t nh hng
K
TN Z
1
,
0
C
Z
2
,
pht
Z
3
,%
Y
1
,% Y
2
Y
L

1 ( TN
ti tm)
35 60 60 0,927 3,991 2,149
2 33,5 58,5 63 0,943 4,403 2,287
3 32 57 66 0,972 4,911 2,548
4 30,5 55,5 69 0,983 4,952 2,553
5 29 54 72 1,110 4,967 2,656
6 28,5 52,5 75 0,915 4,500 2,397

Nhn vo bng 10, ti th nghim th 5 hm chp y
L
t gi tr ln nht
y
Lmax
= 2,656. So snh vi cc th nghim leo dc vi tng hm mc tiu ta c
PA.TN Z
1
,
0
C

Z
2
, Z
3
, % y
1
,% y
2
y
L
Cc yu t
Cc mc
Z
1
,
0
C
Z
2
,
pht
Z
3
, %
Mc c s 35 60 60
Khong bin thin
(
j
)
5 15 10
H s bj
-
0,262
-
0,08397
0,2644
bj
j

-1,31
-
1,427
3
Bc chuyn ng
(
j
)
-1,48
-
1,427
3
Lm trn -1,5 -1,5 3
65
pht

Theo
% Anth
29 75 75 1,113 4,72 2,556
Theo
mu
29 51 72 0,975 5,001 2,585
Theo
hm chp
29 54 72 1,110 4,967 2,656
T bng trn chng ti tm c iu kin tt chit cht mu
anthocyanin t bp ci tm trong mi trng trung tnh l:
Nhit chit 29
0
C
Thi gian chit l 54 pht
H dung mi nc -ethanol l 72-28
66
5.3. Bi ton 3.
KT QU NGHIN CU NH HNG CA NHIT V
NNG KIM N QU TRNH TCH TP CHT RA KHI X
SI XENLULO
(Trch mt phn ti lun vn Thc s ca CN Nguyn B Trung
khoa Ha, trng i hc S phm HN )
I. KT QU NGHIN CU T TI
1. Nghin cu nh hng ca nhit v nng kim n qu trnh tch
tp cht ra khi x si xenlulo.
1.1. nh hng ca thi gian v nng NaOH n lng tp cht tch
ra.
Gai b sau khi c tch s b, dng tay tc gai b kh ra thnh
nhng si mng, ct li thnh b, cc b c khi lng xp x nhau khong 15
gam. Ngm cc b si vo dung dch NaOH cc nng nghin cu trong
thi gian tng ng. Kt qu thu c bng sau:
Bng 1.1: Kt qu kho st nh hng ca thi gian v nng
n lng tp cht tch ra

Thi gian
C%
5 gi 10 gi 15 gi 20 gi
1% NaOH 10.098 10.978 12.46 13.01
3% NaOH 12.92 14.1 15.4 14.81
5% NaOH 14.01 14.67 15.598 14.46


67
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
0 5 10 15 20 25
thoi gian (gio)
%

t
a
c
h

d
u
o
c
1%
3%
5%

Hnh 1.1. nh hng thi gian v nng NaOH n lng tp cht tch
ra.
Nhn xt: T 3 ng biu din nng 1%, 3% v 5% ta nhn
thy rng nng kim 1% th hiu qu tch l khng cao. Khi tng nng
kim ln 3% v 5% th hiu qu tch tng ln nhiu. Tuy nhin hiu qu tch
trong khong nng t 3 5% l khng khc nhau lm trong khong thi
gian t 10 15h.
iu ny c th c gii thch nh sau: nng qu long 1%, thi
gian ngn ban u cha ho tan cc tp cht bao bc bn ngoi nn hiu
qu ca qu trnh tch khng cao. Sau thi gian t 10 15 gi, cc lp bn
ngoi b ho tan nn to iu kin thun li cho NaOH thm nhp vo bn
trong ho tan hemixenlulo, lignin v cc cht c phn t lng thp khc c
trong cc b si.
Nh vy qua th cho ta thy rng c thi gian v nng u c nh
hng r nt n qu trnh tch tp cht ra khi x si gai.

1.1.2. Ti u ho thc nghim qu trnh tch tp cht ra khi si gai.
tin ti min ti u, chng ti chn phng n thc nghim yu t ton
phn. Hai yu t nh hng n qu trnh l nng (Z
1
) v thi gian ngm
68
(Z
2
). Hm mc tiu cn t c l lng tp cht tch ra khi si l ln nht
hay ni cch khc hiu qu tch l cao nht.
quy hoch thc nghim ton phn, chng ti tin hnh b tr th
nghim thay i ng thi cc yu t, mi yu t c tin hnh 3 mc: mc
trn, mc di v mc c s th nghim tm phng n
Mc trn, mc di, khong bin thin c trnh by bng 1.2, ma trn
quy hoch thc nghim c trnh by bng 1.3.
Bng 1.2. Cc mc th nghim.
Mc di Mc c s Mc trn Khong bin
thin ()
Z
1
(C% NaOH) 3 4 5 1
Z
2
(thi gian ngm) 10 12.5 15 2.5

Lp ma trn quy hoch:
Vi 2 yu t nhit v nng (k = 2), mi yu t c hai mc l mc
trn v mc di. Vy s th nghim c tin hnh l N = 2
2
= 4 th nghim.
Phng n tin hnh trnh by bng sau:

Bng 1.3. Ma trn quy hoch thc nghim.
Cc yu t theo t
l thc
Cc yu t theo t l
m ho
Gi tr o
c
N
Z
1
(C%) Z
2
(t) X
0
X
1
X
2
X
1
X
2
Y
1 5 15 1 1 1 1 15.598
2 3 10 1 -1 -1 1 14.1
3 5 10 1 1 -1 -1 14.67
4 3 15 1 -1 1 -1 15.4
5 4 12.5 1 0 0 0 14.82
6 4 12.5 1 0 0 0 14.8
7 4 12.5 1 0 0 0 14.75

Thit lp phng trnh hi quy:
69
Tnh h s hi quy: Cc h s hi quy c tnh theo cng thc ton hc
(3), (4), (5). T s liu thc nghim ta xc nh c cc gi tr b
0
, b
1
, b
2
nh
sau:
b
0
= 14,982 ; b
1
= 0,192 ; b
2
= 0,557 ; b
12
= - 0,093
Vi kt qu trn ta c phng trnh hi quy theo ton hc:
Y = 14,982 + 0,192 X
1
+ 0,557 X
2
0,093 X
1
X
2


kim nh ngha ca h s hi quy v s tng thch ca phng
trnh hi quy vi thc nghim, ta phi tm phng sai ti hin S
2
th
. Do vy
chng ta phi lm thm 3 th nghim tm phng n v thu c gi tr
0
Y .
T cng thc tnh phng sai ti hin, ta c: S
2

th
= 0,0013 ; S
th
=
0.03605551
Kim nh cc h s c ngha ca phng trnh hi quy:
S c ngha ca h s hi quy c theo tiu chun Student:
i
b
i
S
b
ti =
Bng cch tnh nh trn ta thu c cc gi tr t
i
nh sau:


t
0
= 828,833 t
2
= 30,896
t
1
= 10,650 t
12
= 5,158
Tra bng tiu chun Student ta c t
0,05
(2) = 4,303.
Qua bng s liu trn ta thy cc c h s b
0
, b
1
, b
2
, b
12
l c ngha vi
tin cy P<0,05.
Vy phng trnh hi quy m t nh hng ca nng kim v nhit
ln qu trnh tch tp cht ra khi si gai b c dng sau:
Y
1
= 14,982 + 0,192 X
1
+ 0,557 X
2
0,093 X
1
X
2

Nhn xt: S c mt ca cc gi tr b
1
, b
2
v b
12
trong phng trnh hi
quy cho thy c 2 yu t nng v thi gian u nh hng n qu trnh tch
cc cht c phn t lng thp ra khi gai b. c bit, s c mt ca gi tr b
12

chng t c s tng tc qua li gia hai yu t nng kim v thi gian
ngm.
Gi tr b
12
b hn nhiu so vi b
1
, b
2
v mang du m, trong khi b
1
v
b
2
u mang du dng nn v mt ton hc cho ta c nhng nhn xt sau:
70
- S tng tc gia hai yu t trong khong kho st l nh, khng ng k
v c th b qua s tng tc . Nu vt ra khi khong kho st, th s
tng tc qua li gia hai yu t c th nh hng n lng tp cht c tch
ra.
- Trong khong kho st mun tng hiu qa tch tp cht th phi tng
nng kim v thi gian ngm. Tuy nhin trong 2 yu t trn th thi gian
ngm ng vai tr quan trng hn do gi tr h s b
2
l ln hn so vi b
1
.
Ti u ho thc nghim.
Chng ti tin hnh ti u ho qu trnh tch tp cht ra khi s si gai
bng phng php thc nghim leo dc nht. Vi cc h s ca phng trnh
hi quy nh trn, tng nng kim v thi gian th hiu qu tch tp cht s
tng, n mt gii hn no th gi tr phn trm tp cht tch ra l cc i v
qu gii hn th gim xung.
Ti u ho c thc hin nh sau:
Chn bc nhy ca yu t x
1
l
1
= 0,05. Da vo
1
ta tnh c gi tr

2
theo cng thc sau :
3 3
1 1
3 1

=
b
b


3 3
2 2
3 2

=
b
b

c: 36 , 0
1 . 192 , 0
5 , 2 . 557 , 0
. 05 , 0
2
= = T cc thng s tnh c, chng ti tin
hnh thc nghim ti u ho cc mc c s v bc nhy nh sau:
Bng 1.4. Kt qu ti u phng trnh hi quy Y
1
m t nh hng
ca nng v thi gian ln hm lng cc cht tch ra.
Cc yu t X
1
(nng
kim C%)
X
2
(thi gian ngm)
Mc c s 4 % 12,5 gi = 750
pht
Bc nhy
1
= 0,05
2
= 0,36 gi
20 pht
Nng
NaOH
Thi gian ngm Y (lng cht
tch ra)
71
4,05 770 pht 14,3
4,10 790 pht 14,81
4,15
(TNTT)
810 pht -
4,20
(TNTT)
830 pht -
4,25 850 pht 15,34
4,30 870 pht 15,62
4,35 890 pht 15,2

Nh vy hiu qu tch tp cht ra khi x si gai th phi tin hnh
cc thng s sau nhit phng.
Cc thng s ti u Gi tr
Nng kim C%
4,3%
Thi gian ngm 870 pht (14 gi 30
pht)


II. NHN XT V NH GI V BI TON TI U HA TRONG
TI
1. V phng php nghin cu
3.1.1. Phng php quy hoch thc nghim.
Trong ti trn, CN NBT s dng phng php quy hoch thc
nghim tan phn. Ni dung ca phng php nh sau:
- Kho st nh hng ca cc yu t n qu trnh tch tp cht ra khi si
xenlulo, chn ra cc yu t nh hng nht.
- Xy dng ma trn quy hoch thc nghim.
- T chc th nghim v ly mu thng k.
- T s liu thu c, xy dng m hnh thng k thc nghim m t
qu trnh.
72
- Kim nh thng k.
- Phn tch s tng tc gia cc yu t nh hng n qu trnh x l si
trong phm vi chn.

quy hoch thc nghim ton phn, tc gi tin hnh b tr th nghim
thay i ng thi cc yu t. Mi yu t c tin hnh 3 mc: Mc trn;
mc di; mc c s th nghim tm phng n. Xy dng hm mc tiu
cn t c (max hay min).
Lp ma trn quy hoch:
Vi 2 yu t l nhit v nng (k = 2), mi yu t c hai mc l mc
trn v mc di. Vy s th nghim c tin hnh l N = 2
2
= 4 th nghim.
tin cho vic tnh ton, ta chuyn t h trc t nhin Z
1
, Z
2
c th
nguyn sang h trc khng th nguyn m ho. Vic m ho c thc hin d
dng nh chn tm ca min c nghin cu lm gc to .
Trong h m ho khng th nguyn ta c c:
Mc trn: - k hiu +1
Mc c s: - k hiu 0
Mc di: - k hiu 1
Cng thc chuyn t h n v thc qua n v m ho khng th nguyn:
j
0
j j
j
Z
Z Z
X

= ; j = 1, ..., k (1)
2
Z Z
Zj
min
j
max
j

= ; j = 1, ..., k (2)
Thit lp phng trnh hi quy m t nh hng ca cc yu
t n qu trnh nghin cu:
Tnh h s hi quy: Cc h s hi quy c tnh theo cng thc ton hc
nh sau:
N
Yi
b
n
1 i
0

=
= (3)
N
Y X
b
n
1 i
i ij
i

=
= (4)

73
N
.Y ) X . X (
b
n
1 i
i i 1 j
1 j

=
= (5)
T s liu thc nghim trn, p dng cc cng thc (3), (4) v (5) xc nh
c gi tr b
0
, b
1
, b
2
v b
12
.
T kt qu trn c phng trnh theo ton hc: Y = b
0
+ b
1
X
1
+ b
2
X
2
+
b
12
X
1
X
2
Kim nh ngha ca h s hi quy v s tng thch ca
phng trnh hi quy vi thc nghim. Tm phng sai ti hin S
2
th
. Do vy,
phi lm thm 3 th nghim tm phng n v thu c ba gi tr
0
i
Y v gi
tr
0
Y

ti

tm.
Phng sai ti hin c tnh theo cng thc:
2
m
1 i
0 0
i
2
th
) Y Y (
1 m
1
S

=

= (6)
1 m
) Y Y (
S
m
1 i
2 0 0
i
th

=
(7)
trong m l s th nghim tm phng n.
- S c ngha ca h s hi quy c kim nh theo tiu chun Student:
i
b
i
S
b
ti =
b
i
: l h s th i trong phng trnh hi quy.
S
bi
: lch qun phng ca h s th i.
N
S
S
th
b
i
= (8)
Tra bng tiu chun Student ta c t
0,05
(2) = 4,303.
Nu gi tr t
j
> t
0,05
(2) = 4,303 th cc h s b
j
l c ngha, ngc li l
khng c ngha.
Xy dng phng trnh hi quy vi cc h s b
j
c ngha.
- Kim nh s tng thch ca phng trnh hi quy vi thc nghim theo
tiu chun Fisher.
Ta c
2
th
2
du
S
S
F = (9)
74
vi
L N
) Y Y (
S
N
1 i
2
^
i i
2
du

=
(10)
(N l s th nghim, L l h s ngha)

=
=
4
1 i
i i i
X b Y (11)
Thay s vo tnh ton ta c cc gi tr Y
1
; Y
2
; Y
3
;Y
4
.So snh vi F
(1-
p)(f1,f2)
vi P = 0,05; f
1
l bc t do ca phng sai tng thch (f
1
= n - l); f
2
l
bc t do ca phng sai ti hin (f
2
= m 1).Tra bng ta c c gi tr
F
(0,95)(f1,f2)

Nu F < F
tb
th phng trnh hi quy tm c l tng thch vi thc
nghim vi mc ngha 95% , ngc li l khng tng thch.
1.3. Ti u ho thc nghim.
Tin hnh ti u ha bng phng php thc nghim leo dc nht.
Vect

y grad l mt vect c chiu biu th s bin thin nhanh nht ca

y grad (x), gi tr ca

y grad (x) thay i t im ny sang im khc trong khng

gian yu t.
Vi m hnh tuyn tnh bi k,
k
x
y
... j
x
y
i
x
y
y grad
k 2 1

+ +

(12)
hoc k b ... j b i b y grad
k 2 1
+ + + =

(13)
Chuyn ng theo

y grad l chuyn ng theo ng ngn nht n im

ti u, bi v hng grad l hng c nghing dc nht dn t im cho
n im cc i.
Trong trng hp k yu t vic tnh ng dc nht trn mt p ng c
thc hin nh sau:
Chn bc nhy ca yu t x
1
l
1
; da vo
1
ta tnh c
2
theo cng
thc:
i i
j j
i j
b
b
.

=
(14)
trong :
i
l bc nhy ca yu t th i
b
i
, b
j
l h s hi quy ca cc yu t tng quan
75

i
,
j
l khong bin thin ca tng yu t tng ng
thay s vo ta tnh c cc gi tr
j
khc.
T cc thng s tnh c, tin hnh thc nghim ti u ho cc mc
c s vi cc bc nhy tnh sn trc. Chuyn ng grad phi bt u t
im 0 (mc c s ca mi yu t) v dng li khi tm c im ti u nu
nhng hn ch t vo cc yu t lm cho chuyn ng tip tc theo hng
grad khng hp l na.
76
5.4. Bi ton 4.
Ti u ho thc nghim qu trnh chit cc hp cht t g vang
Tin hnh ti u ha thc nghim qu trnh chit bng phng php chng
ninh vi dung mi l H
2
O. tin ti min ti u, chng ti chn phng n
thc nghim yu t ton phn. Ba yu t nh hng n qu trnh l khi lng
g (Z
1
-g), th tch dung mi (Z
2
- ml) v thi gian chng (Z
3
- h). Hm mc
tiu cn t c l hp th quang ln nht. Mc trn, mc di, khong
bin thin c trnh by bng 1.
Bng 1. Cc mc th nghim.
Cc yu t Mc
di
Mc
c s
Mc
trn
Khong bin thin
()
Z1 (m g) 5 7,5 10 2,5
Z
1
(V-ml) 50 100 150 50
Z
2
(thi gian - h) 4 7 10 3
Trong h m ho khng th nguyn ta c c:
Mc trn: - k hiu +1
Mc c s: - k hiu 0
Mc di: - k hiu 1
Lp ma trn quy hoch: Vi 3 yu t khi lng g, th tch dung mi v thi
gian chng, mi yu t c hai mc l mc trn v mc di. Vy s th nghim
c tin hnh l N = 2
3
= 8 th nghim. Phng n tin hnh, ma trn quy
hoch thc nghim c trnh by bng 2.
Bng 2. Ma trn quy hoch thc nghim
Cc yu t theo
t l thc
Cc yu t theo t l m ho Mt
quang
TN
Z
1
Z
2
Z
3
X
0
X
1
X
2
X
3
Y
i

1 10 150 10 1 1 1 1 0,1083
2 5 50 10 1 -1 -1 1 0,1009
3 10 50 10 1 1 -1 1 0,1085
4 5 150 10 1 -1 1 1 0,0855
5 10 150 4 1 1 1 -1 0,1078
77
6 5 50 4 1 -1 -1 -1 0,1092
7 10 50 4 1 1 -1 -1 0,1105
8 5 150 4 1 -1 1 -1 0,1047
9 7.5 100 7 0,1060
10 7.5 100 7 0,1072
11 7.5 100 7 0,1085

Thit lp phng trnh hi quy:
Phng trnh hi quy theo ton hc (3):
Y = b
0
+ b
1
X
1
+ b
2
X
2
+ b
3
X
3
+ b
12
X
1
X
2
+ b
13
X
1
X
3
+ b
23
X
2
X
3
(3)

Cc h s hi quy b
j
c tnh theo cng thc ton hc nh sau:
N
Yi
b
n
1 i
0

=
= (4)
N
Y X
b
n
1 i
i ij
i

=
= (5)
N
.Y ) X . X (
b
n
1 i
i i 1 j
1 j

=
= (6)
Tnh h s hi quy: Cc h s hi quy c tnh theo cng thc ton hc (4),
(5), (6). T s liu thc nghim ta xc nh c cc gi tr b
0
, b
i
, b
ij
nh sau:
b
0
b
1
b
2
b
3
b
12
b
23
b
31

0.147 0.0046 -0.0031 -0.0039 0.019 -0.0008 0.0030
Vi kt qu trn ta c phng trnh hi quy theo ton hc:
Y = 0.1047+0.0046X
1
-0.0031X
2
-0.0039X
3
+0.0019X
1
X
2
-0.0008X
2
X
3
+
0.0030X
3
X
1

kim nh ngha ca h s hi quy v s tng thch ca phng
trnh hi quy vi thc nghim phi lm thm 3 th nghim tm phng n (th
nghim 9,10, 11 trong bng 3.8) xc nh phng sai ti hin theo cng thc
(2.9) ta c: S
2
th
= 1,56.10
-6
. T : S
th
= 0.0013.
Kim tra s c ngha ca h s hi quy c kim nh theo tiu chun
Student:
78
i
b
S
i
i
b
t =
(7)
Vi S
bj
l lch qun phng tnh bng:
N
th
bj
S
S = (8)
S
th
l phng sai ti hin i vi 3 th nghim ti tm tnh theo cng thc:
1 3
) (
3
1
2 0 0
2

= u
u
th
y y
S (9)
Theo cng thc (7):
i
b
S
i
i
b
t = thu c cc gi tr t
i
nh sau:


t
0
t
1
t
2
t
3
t
12
t
23
t
31

166.828 7.332 4.941 6.197 2.969 1.275 3.782

Tra bng tiu chun Student ta c t
0,05
(2) = 4,303.
Qua cc gi tr t
i
cho thy: t
12
, t
23,
t
31
< t
0,05
vy cc c h s b
12
; b
23
khng
c ngha, cc h s cn li b
0
, b
1
, b
2
, b
3
, b
31
l c ngha vi tin cy
P=0,05.
T phng trnh hi quy m t nh hng ca cc yu t ln qu trnh
chit cc hp cht ha hc t cy g vang c dng sau:
Y = 0.147 + 0.0046X
1
- 0.0031X
2
- 0.0039X
3

Kim nh s tng thch ca phng trnh hi quy vi thc nghim theo
tiu chun Fisher.
Kim nh s tng thch ca phng trnh hi quy vi thc nghim theo tiu
chun Fisher.
Ta c
2
th
2
du
S
S
F = (10)
vi
L N
) Y Y (
S
N
1 i
2
^
i i
2
du

=
(11)
(N l s th nghim, L l h s ngha).
Cc gi tr
i
Y

tnh c theo phng trinh hi qui:

=
=
4
1
i i
X

i
i
b Y
79
F
tb
= F
(1-p)(f1,f2)
vi mc ngha 95% th p = 0,05; f
1
l bc t do ca
phng sai tng thch (f
1
= N - L); f
2
l bc t do ca phng sai ti hin (f
2
=
m 1). Tra bng ta c c gi tr F
tb
= F
(0,95)(f1,f2)
. So snh F v F
tb
, nu F < F
tb

th phng trnh hi quy tm c l tng thch vi thc nghim vi mc
ngha 95% , ngc li l khng tng thch.
Gi tr F tnh theo cng thc (10) vi phng sai d tnh theo cng thc
(11): Cc gi tr
i
Y

tnh c theo phng trinh hi qui (3):

=
=
4
1
i i
X

i
i
b Y
Thay s vo phng trnh hi quy, tnh ton ta c cc gi tr Y
i
.
T c: S
2
d
= 9,8.10
-6
, F = 6,24.
So snh F vi F
(1-p)(f1,f2)
trong P = 0,05; 1-P = 0,95 l mc ngha; f
1
l bc
t do ca phng sai tng thch (f
1
= N L = 3); f
2
l bc t do ca phng sai
ti hin (f
2
= m 1 = 2). Tra bng ta c c gi tr F
(0,95)(f1,f2)
= F(0,05)(3,2) =
18,3.
Nh vy F < F
tb
, phng trnh hi quy tm c l tng thch vi thc
nghim vi mc ngha 95%.

80
5.5. Bi ton 5
Mc ch: Nghin cu ti u ho quy trnh c nh t bo nm men bng
Alginat ln men ru.
Quy trnh cng ngh c m t theo s (trang 1).
Nghin cu cc yu t nh hng n mng li gel: nng alginat; nng
glucose; nng t bo:





Sau qu trnh ln men, vt cc ht gel ra v xc nh t l (%) ht gel b nt. T
l ht gel b nt cng thp cng tt ngha l ht gel cng chc cng tt.
Hm mc tiu: Y = Y(Z
1
,Z
2
,Z
3
)
Bi ton ti u: Xc nh nng alginat; nng glucose; nng t bo
nm men ht gel bn nht trong qu trnh ln men ru bng t bo nm
men, c nh bng alginat.
Ymin = min Y(Z
1
,Z
2
,Z
3
)
Sau khi tin hnh cc th nghim thm d, tc gi chn vng kho st nh
sau:
Z
1
= 1 4%
Z
2
= 10 18%
Z
3
= 10 20%
y l bi ton ti u phng nh, gii bi ton theo phng php leo dc.
Phng n qui hoch thc nghim: phng php trc giao cp 1.
S th nghim phi lm: 2
k
=2
3
=8
Vi Z
1min
=1 Z
1
4=Z
1max

Z
2min
=10 Z
2
18=Z
2max

Z
3min
=10 Z
3
20=Z
3max

im xut pht tm phng n: Z
0
= (2.5; 14; 15)
Gi tr ca hm mc tiu ti im Z
0
c xc nh bng thc nghim: Y(Z
0
) =
7.5
Z
1
Nng alginat
Z
2
Nng glucose T l ht gel b nt Y(%)
Z
3
Nng t bo

Ln men trong dung
dch ng glucose
bng t bo nm
men c nh
81
Ma trn thc nghim c b tr nh sau:
S TN Z
1
Z
2
Z
3
Y
1 4 18 20 12.35
2 4 18 10 8.87
3 4 10 20 12.08
4 4 10 10 6.92
5 1 18 20 42.13
6 1 18 10 13.51
7 1 10 20 22.19
8 1 10 10 4.57

Phng trnh hi qui c dng:
Y = B
0
+ B
1
Z
1
+ B
2
Z
2
+ B
3
Z
3

Trong h m ho khng th nguyn ta c c:
Mc trn: - k hiu +1
Mc c s: - k hiu 0
Mc di: - k hiu 1
Cng thc chuyn t h n v thc qua n v m ho khng th nguyn:
j
0
j j
j
Z
Z Z
X

= ; j = 1, ..., k
2
Z Z
Zj
min
j
max
j

= ; j = 1, ..., k
Thu c ma trn thc nghim vi cc bin m nh sau:
S TN X
0
X
1
X
2
X
3
Y
1 1 1 1 1 12.35
2 1 1 1 -1 8.87
3 1 1 -1 1 12.08
4 1 1 -1 -1 6.92
5 1 -1 1 1 42.13
6 1 -1 1 -1 13.51
7 1 -1 -1 1 22.19
82
8 1 -1 -1 -1 4.57

T kt qu thc nghim, tnh ton cc h s Bj:
N
Yi
B
n
i

=
=
1
0

N
Y X
B
n
i
i ij
i

=
=
1

N
X X
B
n
i
i j
j

=
=
1
i 1
1
.Y ) . (

T s liu thc nghim trn, p dng cc cng thc trn ta xc nh c gi tr
B
0
, B
1
, B
2
v B
3
thu c kt qu:
B
1
B
2
B
3
B
0

-5.25 3.75 6.6 12.275

tnh phng sai ti hin, tc gi lm thm 3 th nghim tm.
Kt qu cc th nghim tm:
N
0
Y
u
0

0
Y
Y
u
0
-
0
Y
(Y
u
0
-
0
Y )
2

(Y
u
0
-
0
Y )
2

1 5.65 -1.8533 3.43472
2 7.19 -0.3133 0.09818
3 9.67

7.50333

2.1667 4.69459
8.22749

Phng sai ti hin c tnh theo cng thc:
2
m
1 i
0 0
i
2
th
) Y Y (
1 m
1
S

=

=
1 m
) Y Y (
S
m
1 i
2 0 0
i
th

=

trong m l s th nghim tm phng n.
83
- S c ngha ca h s hi quy c kim nh theo tiu chun Student:
i
b
i
S
b
ti =
b
i
: l h s th i trong phng trnh hi quy.
S
bi
: lch qun phng ca h s th i.
N
S
S
th
b
i
=
Phng sai ti hin: S
2
th
= 4.11
kim nh ngha cc h s, tc gi tnh cc h s t
j
, thu c kt qu sau:
t
0
t
1
t
2
t
3

23.3746 3.5263 5.42122 9.6644

Tra bng phn phi phn v Student vi mc ngha p = 0.05, f = N
0
-1 = 2 ta
c t
0.05
(2) = 4.3. Vy cc h s t
j
u ln hn t
0.05
(2) nn h s b
1
ca phng
trnh hi qui khng c ngha.

Phng trnh hi qui c dng sau:

L
=12.275 + 3.75X2 + 6.6X3

Kim nh s tng thch ca phng trnh hi qui vi thc nghim:

STT
L
Y
i
Y
i
-
L
(Y
i
-
L
)
2

1 20.81 12.35 -8.46 71.5716
2 7.09 8.87 1.78 3.1684
3 13.03 12.08 -0.95 0.9025
4 -0.69 6.92 7.61 57.9121
5 31.35 42.13 10.78 116.208
6 17.63 13.51 -4.12 16.9744
7 23.57 22.19 -1.38 1.9044
8 9.85 4.57 -5.28 27.8784
84
Phng sai d (theo cng thc trang 5):
L N
) Y Y (
S
N
1 i
2
^
i i
2
du

=

(N l s th nghim, L l h s ngha)
Ta c: S
2
d
= 74.13
Tiu chun Fisher:
F= S
2
d
/ S
2
th
= 74.13/4.1 = 18.08
Tra bng phn v phn b Fisher vi p = 0.05; f
1
= N-L = 4; f
2
= N
0
-1 = 2; ta c:
F
1-p
= F
0.095
(4,2) = 19.3. Vy F < F
0.95
(4;2). Phng trnh hi qui tng thch
vi thc nghim.


85
TI LIU THAM KHO
[1] Nguyn Th Lan, Quy hoch thc nghim, bi ging dnh cho sinh vin
chuyn ngnh Cng ngh Ha hc trng i hc Bch khoa - i hc
Nng.
[2] Trn Vn Ng, L thuyt thc nghim, i hc Bch Khoa TPHCM, 1997.
[3] GS.TSKH Nguyn Minh Tuyn, Quy hoch thc nghim, Nh XB Khoa
hc v K thut, 2005.
[4] GS.TSKH Nguyn Minh Tuyn, PGS.TS Phm Vn Thim, K thut h
thng cng ngh ha hc, Tp 1, Nh XB Khoa hc v K thut, 2001.
[5] X.L. Acnadarova, V.V. Capharov, Ti u ha thc nghim trong ha hc
v cng ngh ha hc (Ting Nga & bn dch ca Nguyn Cnh, Nguyn
nh Soa), i hc Bch Khoa TPHCM, 1994.
[6] ivorad R. Lazc, Design of Experiments in Chemical Engineering: A
Practical Guide, WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH, 2004.
[7] D.R. Cox and N. Reid, The theory of design experiment, Chapman &
Hall/CRC, 2000.