1

TRNG I HC NGOI THNG H NI

TIU LUN
MN TI CHNH QUC T
KHNG HONG TI CHNH M GIAI ON 2007-2009


Ging vin hng dn: TS. Mai Thu Hin
Nhm: 6
Hc vin: Phm Th Mai Anh
Mnh Cng
Phm Th Thu Hoi
Lng Th Xun Hng
Lng Th Hng Loan
Nguyn Hng Anh
Lp: 19A TCNH

2

LI NI U

Cuc khng hong ti chnh- kinh t M d i qua tuy nhin hu qu m n li
cho nn kinh t nhiu nc l ht sc nng n, thm ch n lc ny nhiu nc vn ang gng
mnh vt ln vi nhng kh khn m n li. y l cuc khng hong trong nhiu lnh vc,
bt ngun t khng hong tn dng nh th cp v bn thn n li l ngun gc trc tip dn
n cuc khng hong kinh t ton cu 2008-2010.
Khng hong M xy ra vi s bt ng ln ca th gii. Khng ai c th ng rng mt
tng i, mt u tu Th gii li c th suy sp nhanh n nh vy v ko theo n l bao
nhiu kh khn m c Th gii phi gnh chu.
Vy nguyn nhn ca cuc khng hong ny l g? Din bin ca n ra sao? Hu qu gy
ra nh th no? Chnh ph M c bin php g v Vit Nam c trnh c cn bo khng
hong hay khng? Vng, cng chnh l ni dung m nhm chng ti t chc tho
lun tm ra li gii. T c mt cch nhn tng qut v cuc khng hong kinh t M
2007-2009.
Tiu lun gm 5 phn:
Chng I: NGUYN NHN KHNG HONG
Chng II: DIN BIN CA CUC KHNG HONG
Chng III: TC NG CA CUC KHNG HONG TI CHNH M
Chng IV: BIN PHP I PH VI KHNG HONG CA M
Chng V: BI HC CHO VIT NAM T KHNG HONG TI CHNH M



3

CHNG I: NGUYN NHN KHNG HONG
Khng hong ti chnh xy ra ti mt trong nhng th trng ti chnh lu i v ln
mnh nht th gii. Hng lot cc ngn hng ln M sp v nh hng ca n trn
phm vi ton th gii thc s khin th gii phi kinh ngc. C th c nhiu quan im v
nguyn nhn gy ra cuc khng hong . Vy nguyn nhn no dn ti cuc khng hong ti
chnh M v ko theo l khng hong ti chnh ton cu c th coi l ti t nht trong lch
s pht trin ca th gii? Nhm chng ti xin phn tch da trn nhng nguyn nhn nh sau:
1.Khng hong n di chun
Cho vay th chp di chun l khon cho vay cht lng thp vi mc ri ro cao. Cc
khon vay ny khng c xem xt k lng v thng c bo m bi rt t hoc khng c
giy t chng minh kh nng ti chnh ca ngi i vay.
Trong nhng nm u ca th k XXI, khi s bng n ca gi nh t tr nn nh im, s
lng cc giy t c gim thiu ti mc thp nht. Cc khon vay ny cn c gi l
khng giy t bi v chng hu nh khng c bo m bng bt k giy t no. im tn
dng tr thnh tiu chun duy nht. Nu im tn dng ca mt c nhn thp th khon vay
mang hnh thc di chun (y l khon vay vi cht lng thp hn so vi khon vay t
chun, vn c cho vay vi y cc giy t cn thit). b p li ri ro cao, nhng
khon vay ny l nhng khon vay vi li sut cao hoc ngi i vay phi vay theo li sut
ARM vi li sut ban u thp sau c iu chnh dn ln nhng mc cao hn. Theo
truyn thng, ngi mua thng mun vay tin mua nh vi li sut c nh hn l li sut linh
hot, theo , h s phi thanh ton hng thng tin li vi li sut c nh trong sut 30 nm.
Tuy nhin, li sut ARM li rt thp vi thi hn t 3 n 5 nm. Chnh v vy, n thu ht
c nhng ngi mua c thu nhp thp.
2.Chng khon ha
Cc sn phm chng khon ha xut hin t u thp nin 1970 v pht trin mnh trong
mi trng chnh sch tin t c ni lng t nm 2001.
4

Chng khon ha v vic ra i cc sn phm ca qu trnh ny nh chng khon m bo
bng ti sn th chp (MBS), giy n m bo bng ti sn (CDO) v cc loi tng t l mt
pht minh ln v cng c ti chnh. Tuy nhin, v c t nht ti 4 loi ch th kinh t lin quan
n chng khon ha (thay vi 2 loi ch th kinh t l ngi th chp - i vay v t chc tn
dng cho vay - nhn th chp nh giao dch tn dng truyn thng), v s xut hin ca bo
him cho cc sn phm chng khon ha nh hp ng hon i tn tht tn dng (CDS), v s
ra i ca cc th ch nh cc th ch mc ch c bit (SPV) v nhng cng c u t kt
cu (SIV) mua bn MBS v CDO, nn tn ti nhng ri ro h thng bao gm c ri ro
o c v la chn tri . Trong khi , m hnh gim st ti chnh ca Hoa K trc khng
hong khng nng lc gim st cc ri ro ny.
Nhng ri ro mang tnh h thng tn ti v mt khi s c i vi bong bng th trng
ti sn xy ra th nhng ri ro ny s lm mt lng tin gh gm ca cc bn lin quan. Thm
vo , vic thc hnh cho vay lin ngn hng s lm cho nhng tn tht tn dng ly lan ra
ton h thng ngn hng; mt ngn hng ph sn s ko theo nhiu ngn hng khc ph sn. V
mt lng tin ngi gi tin gy ra t bin rt tin gi cn lm cho tnh hnh thm nghim
trng v din ra nhanh chng hn.
Thc t, th trng nh bt u t iu chnh t nm 2005 khin cho gi nh t gim v
cht lng ti sn m bo cho cc MBS v cc CDO gim theo. Ri ro mang tnh h thng
lm cho khng hong tn dng nh th cp n ra vo thng 5 nm 2006 khi m nhiu t chc
pht hnh MBS v CDO cng nh mt s t chc ti chnh m trong danh mc ti sn ca
mnh c nhiu MBS v CDO sp . Tip theo , khng hong ti chnh n ra vo thng 8
nm 2007 khi n lt c cc SPV v SIV cng sp , ri pht trin thnh khng hong ti
chnh ton cu t thng 9/2008 khi c nhng t chc ti chnh khng l nh Lehman Brothers
sp .



5

3, Bong bong th trng nh

Din bin thay i ca li sut chnh sch Hoa K (ng mu xanh).


Din bin thay i gi nh trong thi k bong bng th trng nh .
Khi bong bng dot.com b b, chnh ph v cc kinh t gia Hoa K by ra chin dch mi
gia nh lm ch mt cn nh pht trin kinh t da trn chng trnh cho vay vi li sut
thp trong my nm u v cao cho cc nm sau (sub prime rate), vit tt SP. i khi, cc nh
tn dng cn mo him cho con n vay tin mua nh c tn l Ninja tc l ngi vay tin
khng cn c cng n vic lm, khng cn tr tin vn ban u v khng cn tr n trong cc
nm u. Tm li, bt c ai ch cn k tn vay tin l c th lm ch cn nh.
Chng hn, gi nh bn 100 -la, ngn hng cho vay 120 -la (cao hn gi nh mua).20
-la, ng c x dng tr tt c chi ph nh tin vn ban u, tin li cho cc nm u,
6

k c cc dch v mua nh ca. Cc nm k tip, ngi mua nh s tr tin li cao hn. Nhng
ngi mua nh u t hy vng gi nh tng, h c th bn li cn nh u t kim li.
Bong bng Dot.com v vo nm 2001 v suy thoi kinh t hin r sau s kin 11 thng 9,
Cc D tr Lin bang Hoa K c nhng bin php tin t cu nn kinh t nc ny khi
suy thoi, l h li sut cho vay qua m lin ngn hng.. Ch trong thi gian ngn t thng
5 nm 2001 n thng 12 nm 2002, li sut lin ngn hng gim 11 t t 6,5% xung cn
1,75%. Tn dng th cp cng gim li sut theo. iu ny kch thch s pht trin ca khu vc
bt ng sn v ngnh xy dng lm ng lc cho tng trng kinh t. Trong mi trng tn
dng d di, nhng t chc ti chnh c xu hng cho vay mo him
,
k c cho nhng ngi
nhp c bt hp php vay. H qu l vay v i vay t nhm mc ch u c dn ti hnh
thnh bong bng nh . Nm 2005, c ti 28% s nh c mua l nhm mc ch u c
v 12% mua ch khng. Nm ny, bong bng nh ny pht trin n mc cc i v v.
T qu IV nm 2005 n qu I nm 2006, gi tr trung v ca gi nh gim 3,3%. Thi im
, tng gi tr tch ly cc khon tn dng nh th cp ln n 600 t -la.
Sau khi bong bng nh v, cc c nhn gp kh khn trong vic tr n. Nhiu t chc tn
dng cho vay mua nh gp kh khn v khng thu hi c n. Gi nh gim nhanh khin
cho cc loi giy n m bo bng ti sn (CDO - vit tt ca collateralized debt obligations)
v chng khon m bo bng ti sn th chp (MBS - vit tt ca mortgage-backed security)
do cc t chc ti chnh pht hnh b gim gi nghim trng. Kt qu l bng cn i ti sn
ca cc t chc ny xu i v xp hng tn dng ca h b cc t chc nh gi nh tt. Cuc
khng hong tn dng nh th cp n ra.
Tm li, s cho vay d di ca cc ngn hng tn dng ti Hoa K a ti s sp
th trng bt ng sn, ko theo s l l ca cc ngn hng, lm cho cc ngnh ngh khc b
ng ca, th thuyn tht nghip. Tin u t, hu tr ca dn chng b bc thnh hi.


7

CHNG II: DIN BIN CA CUC KHNG HONG
1, Ton cnh cuc khng hong kinh t M (2007-2009):
H thng ti chnh ngn hng ca M cui nm 2007 v nm 2008 t nhin lm vo mt trong
nhng cuc khng hong cha tng c. Hng trm t USD tiu tan. S ly lan vn cha
chm dt, hu qu vn cha lng ht.

Nhng ngi phn i k hoch gii cu ti Ph Wall. (nh: Foxbusiness)
* Thng 6/2007: Hai qu phng h (hedge fund - mt loi qu c tnh i chng thp v khng
b qun ch qu cht) ca Bear Stearns - ngn hng u t ln th 5 ca M - qu ng sau khi
nh cc vo cc chng khon c m bo bng cc khon cho vay bt ng sn di
chun M
* Thng 7 - Thng 9/2007: Ngn hng IKB ca c tr thnh ngn hng u tin ti chu u
chu nh hng bi nhng khon u t xu trn th trng cho vay di chun M. Trong
khi , Ngn hng SachsenLB ca c phi nhn s cu tr t chnh ph.
* Thng 8 nm 2007, mt s t chc tn dng ca M nh New Century Financial Corporation
phi lm th tc xin ph sn. Mt s khc th ri vo tnh trng c phiu ca mnh mt gi
mnh nh Countrywide Financial Corporation. Nhiu ngi gi tin cc t chc tn dng ny
lo s v n rt tin, gy ra hin tng t bin rt tin gi khin cho cc t chc cng
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thm kh khn. Nguy c khan him tn dng hnh thnh. Cuc khng hong ti chnh thc th
chnh thc n ra
* Ngy 14/9/2007: Ln u tin trong hn 1 th k, khch hng n n ko n ba vy i
rt tin mt ngn hng ln ti Anh - Ngn hng cho vay th chp Northern Rock - ngn hng
ln th 5 ti Anh.
* Ngy 15/10/2007: Citigroup - Tp on ngn hng hng u nc M - cng b li nhun
Qu 3 bt ng gim 57% do cc khon thua l v trch lp d phng ln ti 6,5 t USD. Gim
c iu hnh Citigroup Charles Prince t chc vo ngy 4/11.
* Ngy 15/10/2007: Citigroup - Tp on ngn hng hng u nc M - cng b li nhun
Qu 3 bt ng gim 57% do cc khon thua l v trch lp d phng ln ti 6,5 t USD. Gim
c iu hnh Citigroup Charles Prince t chc vo ngy 4/11.
* Ngy 17/12/2007: Cuc khng hong tn dng lan sang chu c vi nn nhn l Tp on
Centro Properties, mt ch s hu ca cc ph bun bn ln M ti c sau khi tp on ny
a ra cnh bo li nhun gim. C phiu Centro Properties tt gi 70% ti cc giao dch
Sydney.
Thng 12 nm 2007, cuc khng hong tin sang nc trm trng hn khi nhng bo co kinh
t cui nm cho thy s iu chnh ca th trng bt ng sn din ra lu hn d tnh v quy
m ca khng hong cng rng hn d tnh. Tnh trng i tn dng tr nn r rng. H thng
d tr lin bang c gng gim mnh li sut lin ngn hng vo thng 12/2007 v thng 2 nm
2008 nhng khng c hiu qu nh mong i.
GDP trong qu IV nm 2007 gim mc tng ng k, ch tng 0,6% so vi mc tng 4,9%
qu III/2007
Nm 2008-2009: i suy thoi

9


Tnh hnh ph sn 2007-2008
Nm 2008 bt u nhng du hiu m m. Bong bng nh t xut hin ti M vi trn
1 triu ch nh t i mt vi nguy c tch thu ti sn th n. Nhiu ngn hng vng phi cc
khon n di chun (subprime loan) phi hng chu nhng khon thua l nng.
* Ngy 11/1/2008: Bank of America - ngn hng ln nht nc M v tin gi v vn ho
th trng - b ra 4 t USD mua li Countrywide Financial sau khi ngn hng cho vay th
chp a c ny thng bo ph sn do cc khon cho vay kh i qu ln.
* 30/1/2008: Ngn hng ln nht Thu S UBS cng b trch lp d phng 4 t USD, nng
tng s tin trch lp d phng ln 18,4 t USD do nhng tht thot quan n cuc khng
hong cho vay cm c.
* 17/2/2008: Anh quc hu ha Ngn hng Northern Rock.
* 28/2/2008: Ngn hng DZ Bank ca c c a vo danh sch cc nn nhn ca cuc
khng hong cho vay di chun vi tng gi tr ti sn mt gi l 1,36 t euro.
* Thng 3 nm 2008, Ngn hng d tr lin bang New York c cu Bear Sterns, nhng khng
ni. 16-17/3/2008, cng ty ny chp nhn JP Morgan Chase mua li vi gi 10 dollar mt c
phiu, ngha l thp hn rt nhiu vi gi 130,2 dollar mt c phiu lc t gi nht trc khi
khng hong n ra. Vic Ngn hng d tr lin bang New York cu khng ni Bear Sterns v
buc lng cng ty ny b bn i vi gi qu r khin cho s lo ngi v nng lc can thip
ca chnh ph cu vin cc t chc ti chnh gp kh khn. S sp
* 29/4/2008: Deutsche Bank ln u tin trong nm nm cng b mt khon thua l trc thu
sau khi buc phi trch lp d phng 4,2 t USD cho cc khon n xu v cc chng khon
c m bo bi cc khon th thp bt ng sn.
* 11/7/2008: Chnh quyn lin bang M ot quyn kim sot Ngn hng IndyMac Bancorp.
y l mt trong nhng v ng ca ngn hng ln nht t trc ti nay sau khi nhng ngi
gi tin rt ra hn 1,3 t USD trong vng 11 ngy.
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* 31/7: Deutsche Bank cng b khon trch lp d phng tip theo l 3,6 t USD, nng tng s
tin ngn hng ny mt ln 11 t USD. Deutsche Bank tr thnh mt trong 10 nn nhn ln
nht ca cuc khng hong tn dng ton cu.
* Thng 8 nm 2008, n lt Lehman Brothers, mt t chc ti chnh vo loi ln nht v lu
i nht ca M, b ph sn. Tip sau Lehman l mt s cng ty khc
* 7/9: Cc D tr Lin bang (Fed) v B Ti chnh M ot quyn kim sot hai tp on
chuyn cho vay th chp Fannie Mae v Freddie Mac nhm h tr th trng nh t M.
* 11/9/2008: Lehman Brothers tuyn b ang n lc tm kim i tc bn li chnh mnh.
C phiu ca ngn hng u t ny tt gim 45%.

Cc nhn vin ca Lehman Brothers. (nh: foxbusiness)
* 14/9: Bank of America cho bit s mua Merrill Lynch vi gi 29 USD/c phn sau khi t
chi ngh mua li ca Lehman Brother
* 15/9: y l ngy ti t nht ti Ph Wall k t khi th trng ny m ca tr li sau v
khng b 2 to thp i ti M vo Thng 9 nm 2001. Lehman Brothers sp nh du v
ph sn ln nht ti M; Merrill Lynch b Bank of America Corp thu tm; American
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International Group - tp on bo him ln nht th gii mt kh nng thanh ton do nhng
khon thua l lin quan ti n cm c.

Tp on AIG. (nh: Foxbusiness)
* 16/9: Ngn hng trung ng cc nc trn th gii hng t USD vo cc th trng tin
t vi n lc h nhit tnh trng cng thng v ngn chn s ng bng ca h thng ti chnh
ton cu. C phiu AIG gim gn mt na. Fed cng b k hoch bm 85 t USD vo AIG v
nm gi 80% c phn. Ngn hng Barclays ca Anh mua li mt phn ti sn ti Bc M ca
Lehman vi tr gi 1,75 t USD.
* 17/9: C phiu ca Goldman Sachs v Morgan Stanley gim mnh; Tp on Lloyds TSB
ca Anh mua li i th HBOS; U ban Chng khon M kim ch tnh trng bn khng.
* 19/9: Cc th trng chng khon th gii tng vt sau khi M cng b k hoch mua li ti
sn ca cc tp on ti chnh ang gp kh khn, gip lm thanh sch h thng ti chnh.
* 20-21/9: Cng b cc chi tit bn k hoch gii cu 700 t USD. Hai ngn hng Goldman
Sachs v Morgan Stanley c chuyn i thnh tp on ngn hng a nng, nh du s kt
thc m hnh ngn hng u t ti Ph Wall.
* 22/9: Tp on Nomura Holdings ca Nht tr 525 triu USD thu tm hot ng ca
Lehman ti chu . Sau , Nomura cng mua li Lehman ti chu u v Trung ng.
Mitsubishi UFJ Financial ng mua 20% c phn Morgan Stanley.
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* 23/9: Warren Buffett tr 5 t USD mua 9% c phn Goldman Sachs; Cc iu tra lin bang
M (FBI) iu tra Fannie, Freddie, AIG v Lehman v nghi ng c s gian ln trong cuc
khng hong ti chnh ti M.
* 25/9: Washington Mutual Inc. (WaMu), mt trong nhng ngn hng ln nht M sp
cng do nh cc rt ln vo th trng cho vay th chp. C quan Bo him tin gi lin
bang M (FDIC) ot quyn kim sot WaMu v sau bn cc ti sn ca ngn hng tit
kim ln nht M cho JPMorgan Chase & Co. vi gi 1,9 t USD. Vi 307 t USD tng ti
sn, WaMu tr thnh ngn hng b ph sn ln nht trong lch s M.
Trong khi ti Washington D.C., cc thnh vin ch cht trong quc hi ng v nhng
iu khon chnh trong k hoch gii cu 700 t USD.

WaMu - mt trong nhng ngn hng ln nht M sp
cng do nh cc rt ln vo th trng cho vay
th chp. (nh: Foxbusiness)
* 29/9: H vin bt ng khng thng qua k hoch gii cu th trng ti chnh M. Phn ng
ngay lp tc vi quyt nh trn, ch s cng nghip Dow Jones tt gim gn 780 im - mc
gim trong mt ngy mnh nht t trc ti nay.
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* 1/10: Thng vin M thng qua bn k hoch gii cu 700 t USD (t l 74-25) vi mt s
im c thay i, bao gm: gia hn o lut ct gim thu thu nhp cho doanh nghip v
c nhn (tnh s lm ngn sch tht thu 149 t USD); tng hn mc bo him tin gi ti C
quan Bo him tin gi Lin bang t 100.000 USD ln 250.000 USD
*Thng 10/2008, khng hong tn dng lan rng ra ton nc M. Khi Iceland lm vo ph
sn, chnh ph cc nc trn th gii cng ti tp thng bo k hoch cu nguy nn kinh t.
Trong qu 4 nm 2008 GDP ca M gim 3.8% theo bo co u tin ngy 30 thng
ging nm 2009 ri iu chnh li l 5.4% chng t suy thoi ang gia tng.
Cng trong nm ny, nhp siu 813 t 800 triu -la ngha l xut cng c 1377 t nhng
nhp cng 2190 t -la.
Ch s k ngh trung bnh ca M khong 14164 vo 9/10/2007 n 27/2/2009 ch cn
7067, mt gn 50% chng t nc M ri vo i khng hong kinh t.
Tnh c nm 2009, kinh t M tng trng m 2,4%, mc tng trng tnh theo nm thp
nht t nm 1946







14

CHNG III: TC NG CA CUC KHNG HONG TI
CHNH M
1. i vi Hoa K
Cuc khng hong a nc M bc vo thi k ti t nht trong lch s t sau cuc i
suy thoi thp nin 1930.
Hng lot cc ngn hng hng u th gii nh Lehman, Merrill Lynch, tuyn b ph
sn hoc b bn r cho nc ngoi.
Nm 2008, M n 10000 t -la, mt mn n ln nht m cha quc gia no c.
Nm 2009, kinh t m tng trng m 2,4%, thp nht t 1946.
T l tht nghip tng nh hng tiu cc n thu nhp v qua tiu dng ca cc h gia nh
gim lm cho cc doanh nghip kh bn c hng ha. Hng ha tha, mc gi chung ca
nn kinh t gim lin tc, dn n lm pht cao.
T l tht nghip Hoa k (%)
Thng 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
2007 4.6 4.5 4.4 4.5 4.5 4.6 4.7 4.6 4.7 4.8 4.7 4.9
2008 4.9 4.8 5.4 5.0 5.5 5.6 5.8 6.2 6.2 6.6 6.8 7.2
2009 7.6 8.1 8.5 8.9 9.4 9.5 9.4 9.7 9.8
Cuc khng hong lm cho nn cng nghip hng u nc M sp -Cng nghip t
vi s kin ph sn ca ba hng t hng u l General Mtors (GM), Ford Motor v
Chrysler.
Tnh hnh khng hong ca ngnh ch to t Hoa K th hin r nht qua tnh hnh
kinh doanh ca Detroit's Big Three t qu IV nm 2007. Thng 2 nm 2008, GM thng bo
rng nm 2007 hng b l 38,7 t dollar (trc khi tr thu v phn tr n). Ford c mc l
kinh doanh trong nm 2007 l 2,723 t dollar. Sang nm 2008, tnh hnh kinh doanh cng ti t
hn. Doanh s ca 3 hng ch to t ln nht nc ny trong nm 2008 gim xung mc
15

thp ngang hi thp nin 1950. Tm thng u nm 2008, Chrysler b l ti 400 triu dollar.
GM b l trc thu 4,2 t dollar ch ring trong qu III nm 2008, trong khi Ford l 2,75 t
dollar.
Mc d nhn c cc khon vay ca Chnh ph nhng cc cng ty ny vn ln lt
tuyn b ph sn.
T trng ca nn kinh t Ha K i vi kinh t th gii cng gim, t trng ny nm
2008 l 23.79% - mc thp nht trong vng 20 nm tr li y, gim 8% so vi nm 2001. Tc
tng trng trung bnh ca kinh t Hoa K gim t 3,42%/nm (t 1991-2000) xung
1,61%/nm (t 2001- 2010) trong khi tc tng trng trung bnh ca kinh t th gii tng t
3,07%/nm (1991-2000) ln 3,2%/nm (2001-2010). Trong sut giai on 10 nm tr li y,
kinh t Hoa K lin tc c tc pht trin thp hn tc trung bnh ca ton th gii. Gi tr
ng USD gim st, tnh n thng 9 nm 2009, ng USD mt gi 10% so vi thng 12
nm 2005 v 18% so vi thng 12 nm 2000 (tnh theo t gi USD/SDR).
Bng 2: T GI NGOI T TNH TRN SDR THNG 9 NM 2009
Tin t

% thay i so vi
12/2005
% thay i so vi
12/2000
USD -9,3 -17,8
EURO 11,4 32,7
Yn 17,6 9,9
Nhn dn t 7,2 - 0,5
2. i vi th gii
Hoa k l th trng nhp khu quan trng ca nhiu nc, do khi kinh t M suy
thoi, xut khu nhiu nc b thit hi. Nht l cc nc xut khu theo hng ng . Mt s
16

nn kinh t nh Nht bn, i Loan, Singapo ri vo suy thoi, Cc nn kinh t khac tng
trng chm li.
Chu u vn c mi quan h mt thit vi M chu tc ng nghim trng c v ti
chnh ln kinh t. Nhiu t chc ti chnh y lm voph sn n mc khng hong mt
s nc nh Iceland, NgaKhu vc ng Euro chnh thc ri vo cuc khng hong k t
ngy u thnh lp.
Cc nn kinh t M Latinh cng b nh hng tiu cc khi cc dng vn ngn hn b rt
khi khu vc v gi du gim mnh.
Khng hong M l nguyn nhn cuc khng hon kinh t ton cu 2008-2009
Chi ph th gii khc phc hu qu ca cuc khng hong ny l khong 11.900 t USD,
theo c tnh ca Qu Tin t quc t (IMF). iu c ngha l nu chia bnh qun, mi
ngi trong th gii 6,7 t dn vo thi im c th c thm 1.779 USD nu cuc khng
hong khng xy ra.
Tnh ra thit hi tng ng 1/5 sn lng kinh t ton cu bin mt. Khon tin chi ra
cu nguy nn kinh t th gii ln ny l ln nht trong lch s. Theo tnh ton ca IMF trong
bo co a ra trc dp k nim hai nm bt u khng hong, chi ph cu nguy ny vn
ang tip tc tng. Hu ht s tin chi ra l t cc nc pht trin, vi con s ln ti 10.200 t
USD. Trong khi , cc nc ang pht trin ch chi 1.700 t USD.
GDP ton cu nm 2009 gim 5.826 t USD so vi nm 2008 (y l ln u tin GDP ton
cu tng trng m trong vng 20 nm tr li y), ko tc pht trin trung bnh ca ton
giai on i xung, t 4,04%/nm cho giai on 2001 n 2007, xung cn 3,2% cho c giai
on 2001-2010. Trong nm 2010, c tnh kinh t th gii bc u phc hi vi tc
tng trng l 4,8% tuy nhin tc tng trng ny c d bo s gim xung 4,2% trong
nm 2011 v tng tr li vo nm 2012 (IMF).

17

th 1: Tc tng trng GDP ton cu 2000 - 2010

th 2 : Tng trng xut khu v GDP ton th gii
(1990 2010)
Ngun: IMF Data Statistic





18

CHNG IV: BIN PHP I PH VI KHNG HONG CA M
1, Cc D tr Lin bang (Fed):
Ngay khi khng hong tn dng nh th cp n ra, Fed bt u can thip bng cch h
li sut v tng mua MBS. n khi tnh hnh pht trin thnh khng hong ti chnh t thng 8
nm 2007, Cc D tr Lin bang Hoa K (Fed) tip tc tin hnh cc bin php ni lng
tin t tng thanh khon cho cc t chc ti chnh. C th l li sut cho vay qua m lin
ngn hng c gim t 5,25% qua 6 t xung cn 2% ch trong vng cha y 8 thng
(18/9/2007-30/4/2008). Li sut ny sau cn tip tc gim v n ngy 16/12/2008 ch cn
0,25%, mc li sut gn 0 him thy.
Fed cn thc hin nghip v th trng m (mua li tri phiu chnh ph Hoa K hin c), h
li sut,..
Ch tr chng trnh Term Auction Facility cp cc khon vay ngn hn c k hn t 28 n
84 ngy theo li sut cao nht m cc t chc ti chnh tr qua u gi. Fed cn tin hnh cho
vay th chp i vi cc t chc ti chnh vi s tin tng cng ti 1,6 nghn t tnh n thng
11 nm 2008.
2, Chnh ph
Trc tnh hnh khng hong ti chnh nghim trng, chnh quyn Bush trnh quc
hi thng qua gi ti chnh 700 t dollar. Ban u H vin Hoa K do ng Dn ch Hoa K
chim a s bc b v cho rng khng th ph tin cu khng c qu nhiu t chc ti
chnh gp kh khn. Song sau khi k hoch s dng 700 t dollar c iu chnh sang hng
chi cho c cc chng trnh phc v ng o ngi dn nhm kch thch tiu dng (nh tr
gip cho ngi tht nghip, h tr dinh dng cho ngi ngho v ngi thu nhp thp, pht
trin c s h tng), qua vc dy nn kinh t, n c Thng vin thng qua. Ngy 3
thng 10 nm 2008, Tng thng Bush k Emergency Economic Stabilization Act of 2008
cho php thc hin gi kch thch 700 t dollar ny.
19

D theo ng Cng Ha hay ng Dn Ch, nh cm quyn Hoa K ch c th can thip
vo sinh hot kinh t mt cch gin tip qua hai h thng tin t v ti chnh. Theo h thng
tin t, chnh ph c th gim li sut nhng ngi vay n c th tr tin nh hay cc hng
c th mn n khuch trng x nghip; tc l to cng n vic lm. Hnh ng ny nhm
mc ch chn ng gi nh , ng thi lm gim con s tht nghip.
Tng thng Obama phi i ph nhiu vn cp thit v cn thit cho s khng hong
kinh t 2008 ti Hoa K. Th nht l to nim tin ca ngi dn vo h thng tin t; th hai l
chn ng tht nghip ang gia tng; th ba l kch thch nhu cu th trng; tc l lm tng
mc cung to cng n vic lm cho dn chng. Do , trc tnh trng khn trng khng
hong kinh t, quc hi Hoa K ph chun cho tng thng Obama x dng s tin 800 t
-la cu nguy kinh t Hoa K.
Nhm mc ch to nim tin h thng ngn hng, chnh ph gip mt vi ngn hng, tn dng
hay hng bo him (th d AIG) bo v s tin hu tr ca ngi dn
Nhm mc ch chn ng nn tht nghip, chnh ph phi gip cc i cng ty; th d ba
hng xe hi GM, Chrysler v Ford
Nhm mc ch tng mc cu, chnh ph gim li sut, gim thu, xy ct cc cng tc h tng
c s to cng n vic lm v kch thch th trng tiu th
Nhm mc ch lm gim nn tht nghip trong nc, khuynh hng b quan ta cng gia
tng. Khuynh hng ny b th gii ln n. Kinh t ton cu do Hoa K xng c th b tht
bi nn tng thng Obama bi b quyt nh ny; nhng tinh thn nh ai ny lo cng ngy
cng c s ng h ca dn chng Hoa K.
Chnh ph v quc hi cng thng qua nhiu b lut quan trng, trong c Lut Ti
u t v phc hi nm 2009, ban hnh 17-2-2009 c mc tiu l hi phc li nn kinh t ca
M ang suy thoi trm trng.
+ Lut ny nhm to ra cng n vic lm, c cu vn mt s cng vic v c gng khi
phc sn xut.
20

+ Thc y vic mua hng ca khch hng (gim thu, cc khon tr gip cho nhng
ngi n a c,.)
+ Dng li in thng minh nhm mc ch hn ch nhp cng du th.
+ Cc khon tr gip cho gio dc, y t, c bit l pht trin cng ngh v nng
lng
Trong lut ny c mt phn dnh cho u t c s h tng nh chng trnh Tn kinh t ca
Tng thng Roosevelt nm 1933 trong k i khng hong kinh t 1929-1939.
Tng s gi kch cu cho d n ny l 787 t -la.
S thnh cng hay tht bi ca lut ny ph thuc vo 11 im sau:
1- Phn li thc s ca Qu Lin bang (Real Federal Funds rate).
Phn li ca Qu Lin bang l phn li (rate) ca cc ngn hng cho vay ln nhau on
k. Phn li thc s ca Qu Lin bang l phn li ca cc nh bng cho vay ngn hn tr i
ch s lm pht.
2- ng biu din phn li hng nm: (Interest rate yield curve)
3- lch phiu n (Bond) ca cc cng ty: (Corporate bond spread)
lch phiu n AAA l hiu s gia phn li hng nm ca cc cng ty v phn li hng
nm ca cng kh phiu 10 nm. Th d phn li cng kh phiu 10 nm l 3.5% v ca cng
ty l 6% th hiu s ny 2.5%
4- S gi lm vic (Worked hours) ca khu vc t:
S gi lm vic c ch s 2002 l gc 100 (so snh vi 2002). Ngi ta nh ngha s
gi lm vic ty theo cc hng t cn sn xut nhiu th cng nhn c lm thm gi tc l
gi lm vic ph tri v nu s gi lm vic ny gim tc l nn kinh t khng kh. Thng
thng ti cc hng t khi no kinh t pht trin th cng nhn mi phi lm gi ph tri. Nh
vy s gi lm vic ny n nh hay l tng ln trong 3, 4 thng lin th ch s ny chng t
21

nn kinh t ang trn hi phc. C th l thng ging nm 2009 s gi lm vic ca cng
nhn c ch s 102.9, thng 2 l 102.2, thng 3 l 101.2, thng 4 l 100.4, thng 5 l 9.99, thng
6 l 9.94, thng 7 l 99.2, thng 8 l 99.1
6- n t mua hng ha phi quc phng: (non defense capital goods orders)
n t hng phi quc phng l ch s kinh t khi cc nh u t ch cc hng tin tng
vo nn kinh t th cc cng ty mi u t vo my mc mi, cc my in ton v cc hng
ha
Trong nm 2009, s n t hng gi tr hng thng u di 35 t v chng t nn kinh t ca
Hoa K cha c hi phc.
7- Tin t lu hnh (Money Supply):
Tin t lu hnh cn c tn l tin t cung cp, l s tin k thc ngn hng v trong
Qu Th trng Tin t (Money Market Fund) sau khi iu chnh v lm pht l tr s tn
dng ca s tin c th s dng c.
8- Gi chng khon
9- Ch s ISM.
ISM vit tt ca ch Institute for Supply Management Index, vin qun l ch s
hng cung cp.
10- Gi du th
11- S xe bn c
7 trong 11 ch th kinh t k trong nhng lot bi trc c ch s dng trong thng 9 bao
gm s gi lm vic, giy php xy ct, n t hng ha phi quc phng, gi tr chng khon,
n t hng xut cng gia tng, li sut thc s ca qu Lin bang, ng biu din tin li
hng nm.

22

CHNG V: BI HC CHO VIT NAM T KHNG HONG TI
CHNH M
M ca kinh t v hi nhp mang li nhiu li ch cho Vit Nam nhng ng thi
cng khin chng ta phi i mt vi nhiu nguy c hn khi xy ra bin ng. Tc ng ca
cuc khng hong ny c tnh hai mt, song ch yu l tc ng tiu cc ti kinh t ton cu
cng nh ca Vit Nam. Do hi nhp ngy cng su v rng vo nn kinh t th gii nn Vit
Nam cng chu nhng tc ng nht nh, tuy khng trc tip.
1. Nhng tc ng n nn kinh t Vit Nam
+ Tc ng n tng trng nn kinh t:
Khng hong d lm cho tc tng trng ca Vit Nam gim v t l tht nghip tng
cao. Thc t nm 2008, tc ny ch t 6,23% ( d bo ca Quc hi l 7%), thp nht trong
vng 9 nm qua. Sn xut thu hp, thu nhp gim st, that nghip gia tng.
+ Tc ng n FDI:
Tri vi tt c nhiu d on ban u cho rng FDI Vit Nam s gim mnh do nh
hng ca khng hong, tnh hnh thu ht vn u t trc tip nc ngoi vo Vit Nam nm
2008 tng k lc trong hn 20 nm. Tnh n 19/12/2008, tng s vn FDI u t vo Vit
Nam hn 64 t -la M, tng 199,9% so vi 2007.
+ Tc ng n xut khu Vit Nam
Xut khu ca Vit Nam b nh hng kh nhiu bi M l th trng xut khu ln
nht ca Vit Nam
Tnh hnh trn a n kt qu l c nm 2008 xut khu ch t khong 64 t -la,
tng 31,8% so vi 2007. Xut khu gim khng ch v s n t hng m c v gi bn
ca hng ha xut khu. Nhiu doanh nghip trong nc gp kh khn do tiu th hng ha
gim v thiu vn u t.
23

2. Vit Nam lm g i ph vi khng hong
Chnh ph Vit Nam ra 05 nhm gii php c bn nh sau:
- Gii php thc y sn xut - kinh doanh v y mnh xut khu
- Gii php y mnh, kch cu u t v tiu dng
- Thc hin chnh sch ti chnh tin t linh hot
- Thc hin su rng chnh sch an sinh v x hi
- Phi hp tt trong t chc ch o, iu hnh
3. Bi hc rt ra t khng hong
Thc t cho thy, Tr tu v bn lnh Vit Nam , ang v s b th thch, kt qur chng
lm pht, vt qua khng hong v trin vng pht trin kinh t bn vng nc ta s cn ty
thuc rt ln vo quyt tm chnh tr, nhn thc v cch thc gii quyt cc im mu cht sau:
Phi hp hi ha bn tay Nh nc php quyn v bn tay th trng
Nhng cuc khng hong kinh t-ti chnh-tin t khu vc v th gii , ang v s cn
chng t, khi bn tay hu hnh ca Nh nc hoc nm qu cht, hoc b bung lng qu
mc, v c khi bn tay v hnh ca th trng b lm dng v cao thi qu, th u c nguy
c dn n nhng cc oan, nh hng xu n nn kinh t v thm ch dn n khng hong
nu c nhng bt ng qu mc gia nh nc v th trng.
Cc khim khuyt ca th trng t do phi c sa cha bng s can thip ch ng
v tch cc ca Nh nc kiu mi, mang tnh php quyn v i din cao hn.
c bit, cn sm khc phc nhng bt cp v nhn thc v lm dng trong thc t v
quyn lc ch quan ca nh nc, v sc mnh th trng khch quan, v tnh a mc tiu ca
chnh sch, cn nng cao cht lng xy dng cc quy hoch, d n; thc hin nghim tc cc
24

quy nh v u thu thc cht, chng thng thu, p thu v cc gian ln thu khc gy tn hi
li ch chung v di hn; tng cng kim ton c lp, xy dng v p dng rng ri h thng
ch tiu hiu qu
V di hn, cn chuyn nhanh t m hnh nh nc nh u t ln nht v pht trin
ch yu theo b rng hin nay, sang m hnh nh nc nh qun l cng v pht trin theo
b su, i i vi vic chuyn dch ngun ng lc chnh trong u t pht trin kinh t t khu
vc kinh t nh nc sang khu vc kinh t ngoi nh nc; yu cu v t chc li nn kinh t
v cc doanh nghip trong nc s cp thit hn nhm tng cng s hp tc, gn kt, sc
cnh tranh v hiu qu sn xut kinh doanh ca tng doanh nghip, cng nh hiu qu u t
kinh t-x hi ni chung
Hn na, cn sm thit lp c ch th trng cnh tranh y , lnh mnh trong vic
cung cp cc sn phm v nguyn , nhin liu u vo thit yu ca nn kinh t, ri mi bi
b s kim sot hnh chnh v gi c.
Coi trng tnh ng b v ch n tnh 2 mt ca cc gii php chnh sch.
Bn lnh v Tr tu Vit Nam cn th hin trong s dm i din, chp nhn v bit cch
vt qua th thch trn c s tun th cc yu cu, ln quy trnh ca kinh t th trng, coi
trng tnh ng b, c trng tm, trng im ca cc mc tiu, loi cng c chnh sch v
s phi hp n khp cn c gia cc c quan chc nng hu quan, nng cao hiu qu u t
kinh t-x hi
Ngoi ra, cn coi trng vic xy dng h thng s liu thng k v d liu thng tin quc
gia v chuyn ngnh hin i, c cht lng cao, p ng mi nhu cu a dng v qun l
nh nc cc cp, kinh doanh v nghin cu khoa hc; khc phc tnh trng phn tn, chia
ct, ri rc, ng bng v thiu chun ho thng nht gia cc ngun v n v qun l
thng tin, gy kh khn v t cho cc n v v c nhn c nhu cu tip cn, khai thc
v s dng cc thng tin ny, ng thi lm gim sc cnh tranh ca nn kinh t v gia tng
s lng ph cc ngun lc x hi.
25

Trng dng ngi ti v u tranh khng khoan nhng vi tham nhng.
Hin ti l nguyn kh quc gia, v vy, Vit Nam cn c nhiu bin php, chnhs sch
khuyn khch ngi ti, c ch bi dng hp l v nht l vic u t ng mc, trnh
b xt nhn ti. Mun c nh vy cn phi c s n lc t pha nh nc v s ng
thun t nhn dn
Tham nhng lm tht thu v tht thot, gim hiu qu cc ngun lc x hi, nhng lut
nh qun l kinh t x hi, lm nn lng nh u t trong v ngoi nc, gy cn tr cho
s vn hnh thng sut ca nn kinh t vi t cch mt chnh th t nhin, l ci ngun mi
bt n, tr ngi v thch thc ln nht, gy tn tht to ln, kh lng cho li ch, uy tn
quc gia, lm gia tng tnh trng ri lon k cng x hi, xu hng ly tm v mt ng
thun, k th nguy him nht t bn trong i vi cng cuc i mi v pht trin Vit
Nam. V vy, phng, chng tham nhng ang l bi ton kh m vn cha c li gii trit
.Nn kinh t trong sch vng mnh khng th c hin tng tham nhng. ng v Nh
nc ta cn mnh tay hn na, u tranh khng khoan nhng vi nn tham nhng.








26

KT LUN
Cuc khng hong kinh t M 2007-2009 tc ng su rng vo mi mt ca cc nn
kinh t trn th gii. N chm ngi cho cuc khng hong kinh t ton cu 2008-2010. M
cng nhiu quc gia khc ang gnh chu nhng tn tht nng n m cuc khng hong ny
mang li. Tuy nhin nm 2010 c nhiu du hiu kh quan cho s phc hi v thc t nn
kinh t bt u vc dy t m ly khng hong, tuy cn chm.
Nhng bi hc v kinh nghim rt ra t cuc khng hong ny hy vng s gip cho nn
kinh t Vit Nam ni ring v Th gii ni chung s pht trin vng chc trong tng lai.












27

DANH MC TI LIU THAM KHO

A .Gio trnh v nghin cu chuyn
1. PGS.TS Nguyn Vn Tin Giao trnh ti chnh quc t - Nh xut bn Thng k
2. PGS.TS Nguyn Hu Ti Giao trnh l thuyt tin t- i hc kinh t quc dn
3. T.S Nguyn c Hng Khng hong ti chnh ton cu , thch thc vi Vit
Nam Nh xut bn Thanh Nin thng 4/2010
4. Phm Ton Thin Khng hong cho vay th chp di chun M: bi hc v
mt s kin ngh - Tp ch khoa hc HQGHN, Kinh t v kinh doanh 25 (2009)39-
53
5. Ngn hng Nh nc Vit Nam Tc ng ca cuc khng hong ti chnh ton
cu ti d tr ngoi hi
6. Dennis Vink (Nyenrode Business Universiteit) Adre E.Thibeault(Vlerick Leuven
Gent management School)- ABS, MBS and CDO compared: an empirical analysis-
Sep 9
th
,2008
7. American Bar Association, Banking Law Committee, Business Law Section The
Finance Crisis of 2007-2009: Cause and contributing circumstances-
September,2009
8. Federick Grifin U.S Financial crisis: Subprime Lending and Mortgage Fraud
9. Peter Rizov- Working paper ,2008 Mortgage crisis in the United States May
2
nd
2009
B.Internet ( E-Paper)
1. Bnh trng tn dng gy khng hong, bi hc cho Vit Nam .
http://tuanvietnam.vietnamnet.vn/banh-truong-tin-dung-gay-khung-hoang-bai-hoc-cho-
viet-nam
2.Khng hong ti chnh m, i tm nguyn nhn v h qu.
http://www.tuanvietnam.net/2008-09-24-khung-hoang-tai-chinh-my-di-tim-nguyen-
nhan-va-he-qua-
3.Data , Report- FED : http://www.federalreserve.gov/

4.Data, Report- New York Fed: http://www.newyorkfed.org/

5. IMF Data Mapper - http://www.imf.org/external/index.htm

6.WikipediaPage-Technicalterms&Others http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Main_Page

28