%&#'$ Global Strategy Group &($ NE 02 Congressional Race )*"($ June 3, 2014
Democrat Brad Ashford Tied with Unpopular Rep. Lee Terry Survey shows remarkable weak position for incumbent
The Congressional race in Nebraska's 2 nd District is dead even as voters are eager for an alternative to incumbent Republican Lee Terry, according to a recent survey of likely voters in the district conducted by Global Strategy Group. 1 Given Democrat Brad Ashford's strong initial standing and the widespread dissatisfaction with Terry's performance in office, Ashford is well positioned to win the seat this November. Key findings are as follows:
Few voters are committed to re-electing Lee Terry this fall. Only one-third (33%) of voters say they would vote to re-elect Lee Terry if the election were held tomorrow, while another one-third (33%) would consider another candidate and three in ten (30%) are committed to replacing him. Even among Republicans, just one-half (50%) are committed to re-electing their incumbent Congressman, while nearly three-fourths of Independents (74%) say they will either consider another candidate (46%) or definitely vote to replace Terry (28%).
Voters of aII poIiticaI stripes have serious doubts about Terry's performance in office. Likely voters in the district are overwhelmingly negative (36% positive/63% negative) in the ratings they afford Terry for his job in Congress. ndependents rate Terry's performance negatively by greater than a two-to-one margin (30% positive/68% negative), while GOP voters are evenly split on Terry's performance in office (52% positive/48% negative). Terry's shaky standing with district Republicans is yet another indication of the trouble the Congressman is having holding on to his Republican base after barely withstanding a primary challenge last month. Terry's job rating among Republican voters is nearly identical to the narrow 53%/47% margin with which he won the Republican primary against Dan Frei despite outspending Frei by greater than a 20-to-1 margin, roughly $900,000 dollars to $40,000 dollars, in the race.
Brad Ashford is tied with Terry in a head to head matchup. State Representative Brad Ashford is drawing an equal share of votes as Terry in a trial heat with the three candidates currently on the November ballot, including Libertarian candidate Steven Laird (41% Ashford/41% Terry/4% Laird). Ashford's competitive standing is a reflection of the Democrat's broad appeal, as he not only consolidates a greater share of voters from his own party (75% of Democrats) than Terry (63% of Republicans) but also wins Independent and moderate voters by comfortable margins. Ashford leads Terry by 12 points among Independents (44% Ashford/32% Terry), and outperforms the incumbent by a 2-to-1 margin among the district's wide swath of self-described moderates (55% Ashford/27% Terry).
The bottom line is this: Brad Ashford has a clear opportunity to win the race for Nebraska's 2 nd
Congressional District this year. District voters have deeply soured on Lee Terry, who has failed to convince even his own Republican base that he deserves re-election this fall. This survey represents another repudiation of Terry from district voters after his unconvincing performance in the Republican primary last month, and Ashford's cross-partisan appeal makes him an ideal candidate to provide the alternative that voters are looking for this November.
+ This survey was conducted among 400 likely November 2014 voters in Nebraska's 2 nd Congressional District between May 29 th
and June 1 st , 2014. The margin of error at the 95% confidence level is+/- 4.9 percentage points on the overall sample. The margin of error on sub-samples is greater.