Thi Gi Tin T

Phn tch u t chng khon

ThS. Nguyn Quc Vit

Ni dung chnh
Trc thi gian: V sao gi tr tin t li
thay i theo thi gian?
Gi tr tng lai ca 1 s tin v li sut
kp
Gi tr hin ti ca 1 s tin v li sut
chit khu
Gi tr tng lai, gi tr hin ti ca chui
tin t.
nh gi dng tin u thi k v v tn
Xc nh s tin thanh ton u, thi hn
v li sut.
2

Khi nim c bn
Trc thi gian

Thi im hin ti = Thi im phn tch

Thi on

Thi on: gi, ngy, thng, qu, nm

Gi tr tng lai ca 1 khon tin s tin

sau cng trn trc thi gian
Gi tr hin ti ca 1 khon tin s tin
sm nht trn trc thi gian
T l li sut l t l gi tr tng lai
v gi tr hin ti ca 1 s tin c hon
i ngang nhau.
3

T l chit khu, t sut sinh li yu cu

Chi ph vn, chi ph c hi

Gi Tr Tng Lai V d 1

Gi s bn u t $1000 trong vng 1 nm vi

li sut 5%/nm, th gi tr tng lai sau 1 nm
l bao nhiu?
Tin li = 1000(0.05) = 50
Gi tr nhn c sau 1 nm = s tin gc +
tin li = 1000 + 50 = 1050
Gi tr tng lai (FV) = 1000(1 +0.05) =1050
Gi s bn gi nguyn s tin ny trong nm
tip theo, s tin bn c c sau 2 nm s l
bao nhiu?
FV = 1000(1.05)(1.05) = 1000(1.05)2 =
1102.50

Gi tr tng lai: Cng Thc Tng Qut

FV = PV(1 + r)t
FV = gi tr tng lai
PV = gi tr hin ti
r = li sut k hn
t = s k hn tnh li

Nhn t li sut = (1 + r)t = FVIFr, t

= nhn t ghp li kp
Tra bng: r= 5%, t = 2, FVIF5, 2 =1.1025
FV = PV(FVIF5, 2)= 1000*1.1025 = 1102.50
5

Tc ng ca vic ghp li
Li sut n: FV = PV(1 + r*T)
Li sut kp: FV = PV(1 + r)t
Tr li v d trn
FV vi li n = 1000 + 50 + 50 = 1100
FV vi li kp = 1102.50
Khon chnh lch 2.50 chnh t con s
0.05(50) = 2.50 c tr cho khon li nm
u tin
6

Tc ng ca li sut kp & FV
Gi tr tng lai ca 1 ng ($)

40.00

20%

30.00
25.00
20.00

15%

15.00
10.00
5.00

10%

5%
0%
1.00
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24
Thi hn

Gi Tr Tng Lai V d 2
Gi s bn u t $1000 t v d trc
trong vng 5 nm, bn s nhn c s
tin l bao nhiu sau 5 nm?
FV = 1000(1.05)5 = 1276.28
FV = 1000(1 + 0.05*5) = 1250
Chnh lch: 26.28 (tng so vi 2.5 trong 2
nm)

Gi tr Tng Lai V d 3
Gi s bn c mt khon tin gi tit
kim $10 vi li sut 5.5%/nm cch y
200 nm, th hin nay khon u t ny
c gi tr l bao nhiu?
FV = 10(1.055)200 = 447,189.84
FV = 10(1 + 0.055*200) = 120
Chnh lch: 447,069.84

Gi tr Tng Lai V d 4
Gi s cng ty ca bn d tnh tc
tng trng doanh thu t hot ng kinh
doanh l 15%/nm trong vng 5 nm,
nu doanh thu hin ti ca cng ty l 3
triu /nm th doanh thu k vng trong
5 nm ti s l bao nhiu?
FV = 3,000,000(1.15)5 = 6,034,072

10

Cu hi n Phn I
S khc nhau gia li n v li kp l g?
Gi s bn c $500 u t v bn tin
rng bn c th u t sinh li vi t l
bnh qun l 8%/nm trong sut 15 nm.
Vy s tin m bn s c c vo cui nm
th 15 l bao nhiu khi dng li sut kp?
V bn s nhn c bao nhiu khi s dng
li sut n?

11

Gi Tr Hin Ti
Bn phi u t bao nhiu vo hm nay
nhn c mt s tin trong tng lai?
FV = PV(1 + r)t
Suy ra: PV = FV / (1 + r)t = FV * [PVIFr,t]
1/ (1 + r)t = [PVIFr,t]: nhn t chit khu

12

Khi chng ta cp n chit khu ngha l

chng ta ang tm gi tr hin ti ca mt khon
tin trong tng lai.
Khi chng ta bn n gi tr ca bt k ci g
ngha l chng ta ni n gi tr hin ti tr phi
chng ta quy nh r rng rng chng ta cn
n gi tr tng lai.

Gi tr Hin ti V d 1
Gi s bn mun c 1 s tin l $10,000
trong nm ti thanh ton cho chic xe
t d nh mua, nu bn c th u t
kim li 7%/nm th bn cn s tin bao
nhiu u t vo ngy hm nay?
- PV = 10,000 / (1.07)1 = 9345.79

13

Gi tr Hin Ti V d 2
Bn mun bt u tit kim cho con/em
bn bc vo hc lp 1 cho n khi tt
nghip cp 3 trng lng, khi bn d
tnh con/em bn s cn s tin $150,000
trong vng 17 nm. Nu bn t tin rng
bn s kim li c 8%/nm th bn cn
u t s tin bao nhiu vo hm nay?
PV = 150,000 / (1.08)17 = 40,540.34

14

Gi tr Hin Ti V d 3
Gia nh bn thnh lp mt Qu u t
lp nghip cho bn trc y 10 nm v
s tin hin gi trong qu ny l
$19,671.51. Nu qu u t sinh li
7%/nm th lc gia nh bn u t
bao nhiu?
PV = 19,671.51 / (1.07)10 = 10,000

15

Gi tr Hin ti Mi lin h I
mt mc li sut thi hn cng di th
gi tr hin ti cng nh
Gi tr hin ti ca khon tin $500 l bao
nhiu khi s tin vo nm th 5? Nm
th 10? Sut chit khu l 10%/nm
5 nm: PV = 500 / (1.1)5 = 310.46
10 nm: PV = 500 / (1.1)10 = 192.77

16

Gi tr Hin ti Mi lin h II
Cng mt khong thi gian t l li sut
(sut chit khu) cng cao, gi tr hin ti
cng thp.
Gi tr hin ti ca $500 nm th 5 l bao
nhiu nu t l li sut l 10%? 15%?
T l = 10%: PV = 500 / (1.1)5 = 310.46
T l = 15%: PV = 500 / (1.15)5 = 248.59

17

Gi tr hin ti ca 1 ng ($)

Tc ng ca sut chit khu & PV

18

1.00

0%

0.75

0.5
5%
0.25

10%
15%
20%
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24
Thi hn

Cu hi n Phn II
u l mi lin h gia gi tr tng lai v hin
ti?
Gi s bn cn $15,000 trong vng 3 nm, nu
bn c c hi kim li 6%/nm th bn cn u
t bao nhiu vo ngy hm nay?
Nu bn mun s tin trn phi sinh li mc
8%, bn s phi u t nhiu hn hay t hn
mc 6%? V con s ny l bao nhiu?

19

Gi tr tng lai ca dng tin t V d 1

Gi s, chng ta c dng tin nh di
y. Hy tnh gi tr tng lai ti nm th
3 ca tng khon tin mc li sut 8%
v cng li:

Hin ti (nm 0): FV = 7000(1.08)3 = 8,817.98

Nm 1: FV = 4,000(1.08)2 = 4,665.60
Nm 2: FV = 4,000(1.08) = 4,320
Nm 3: Gi tr = 4,000
Tng tr gi 3 nm = 8817.98 + 4665.60 + 4320 + 4000 =
21,803.58

Gi tr ti nm 4 = 21,803.58(1.08) = 23,547.87
$7000

20

$4,000

$4,000

$4,000

$23,547.87

Dng tin t - Gi tr tng lai - V d 2

Gi s bn u t $500 vo 1 qu u t
hm nay v $600 trong nm ti. Nu qu
ny tr 9%/nm th bn s c bao nhiu
tin trong vng 2 nm?
FV = 500(1.09)2 + 600(1.09) = 1248.05

21

Dng tin t FV - V d 2 (tt)

Bn s nhn c bao nhiu trong 5 nm
ti nu nh bn khng u t thm?
Cch th nht:
FV = 500(1.09)5 + 600(1.09)4 = 1616.26

Cch th hai s dng gi tr nm th

2:
FV = 1248.05(1.09)3 = 1616.26

22

Dng tin t FV - V d 3
Gi s bn c k hoch gi 1 khon tin
$100 vo ngn hng trong 1 nm v $300
vo nm th 3. Bn s c c s tin
trong ti khon l bao nhiu vo nm th
5 nu t l li sut l 8%/nm?
FV = 100(1.08)4 + 300(1.08)2 = 136.05 +
349.92 = 485.97

23

Cng thc tng qut - Dng tin t

Gi tr tng lai:
FVt = CF0(1+r)t + CF1(1+r)t-1 + CF2(1+r)t-2
+ + CFt-1(1+r)1 + CFt
Gi tr hin ti:

PV0 = CF0/(1+r)0 + CF1/(1+r)1 +

CF2/(1+r)2 + ..+ CFt/(1+r)t
24

Gi tr hin ti ca dng tin t

V d 1
Gi s, chng ta c dng tin pht sinh qua
tng nm di y, vi li sut 12% chng ta i
tm gi tr hin ti ca tng khon tin v cng
chng li:

25

Nm 1: 200 / (1.12)1 = 178.57

Nm 2: 400 / (1.12)2 = 318.88
Nm 3: 600 / (1.12)3 = 427.07
Nm 4: 800 / (1.12)4 = 508.41
Tng PV = 178.57 + 318.88 + 427.07 + 508.41 =
1432.93

Biu din Trc thi gian - V d 1

0

200
178.57
318.88
427.07
508.41
1432.93

26

400

600

800

Dng tin t Gi tr hin ti - V d 2

Bn ang tnh n mt khon u t m bn s
nhn c $1000 vo nm 1, $2000 vo nm 2
v $3000 vo nm 3. Nu bn mun sinh li
10% trn s tin ca bn th s tin m bn
phi sn sng chi ra hm nay l bao nhiu?

27

PV = 1000 / (1.1)1 = 909.09

PV = 2000 / (1.1)2 = 1652.89
PV = 3000 / (1.1)3 = 2253.94
PV0 = 909.09 + 1652.89 + 2253.94 = 4815.92

Cu hi n Phn III
Gi s bn c dng tin t nh sau:
Nm 1: CF1 = $100
Nm 2 & 3: CF2&3 = $200
Nm 4 & 5: CF4&5 = $300
T l li sut yu cu l 7% /nm
Gi tr ca dng tin t vo nm th 5?
Gi tr ca dng tin t vo hm nay?
Gi tr ca dng tin t vo nm th 3?
28

nh ngha Dng tin u thi k

v v tn
Dng tin u thi k mt chui cc khon
tin bng nhau xy ra thng xuyn trong mt
khong thi gian nht nh.
Nu khon tin u tin xy ra vo cui thi on th
n c gi l dng tin u thng thng
Nu khon tin u tin xy ra vo u thi on th
n c hiu l dng tin u u k

Dng tin u v tn l mt chui v hn

nhng khon tin bng nhau xy ra cui k v
khng bao gi chm dt.
29

Dng tin u Cng thc c bn

Dng tin u thi k:
1

1 (1 r ) t
PV C

(1 r ) t 1
FV C

Dngtinuvhn:PV=C/r
30

Dng tin u PV - V d 1
Gi s, bn d nh mn mt s tin vo ngy
hm nay. Nu bn phi tr mt khon u n
hng nm l $632 trong vng 48 nm vi li
sut l 10% th s tin bn cn mn l bao
nhiu?
p dng cng thc:

1 (1.1) 48
PV 632
6,254.86
0.1

31

Gi tr hin ti ca dng tin u thng

thng (5 nm, t l li sut 5.5%)
0

1
$1,000

2
$1,000

3
$1,000

4
$1,000

5
$1,000

Thi im cui nm
$947.87
$898.45
$851.61
$807.22

$765.13

32

C
1
PV 1
$4,270.28
t
r (1 r )

Gi tr hin ti ca dng tin u

u k (5 nm, t l li sut 5.5%)
0
$1,000

1
$1,000

2
$1,000

3
$1,000

$1,000

Thi im cui nm
$947.87
$898.45
$851.61
$807.22

C
1
PV 1
1 r $4,505.15
t
r (1 r )
33

Gi tr hin ti ca dng tin v tn

(s tin $1,000, t l li sut 7%)
Trng hp dng tin u tin n v cng

1
PV

t
1

r
)
t
1 (
1
PV

$
14
,
285
.
71
r
34

Gi tr tng lai ca dng tin u thng

thng (5 nm, t l li sut 5.5%)
$1,238.82
$1,174.24

$1,113.02
$1,055.00
$1,000.00

$1,000

$1,000

$1,000

$1,000
4

Thi im cui nm

$1,000
5

(1 r ) 1
FV C
$5,581.08
r
t

Thi im khc nhau s nh hng n FV nh th no?

35

Gi tr tng lai ca dng tin u

u k(5 nm, t l li sut 5.5%)
FV5 = $5,888.04
$1,306.96
$1,238.82
$1,174.24
$1,113.02
$1,055.00
$1,000
0

$1,000
1

$1,000
2

$1,000

$1,000

Thi im cui nm
t

(1 r ) 1
FV C
1 r $5,888.04
r
36

Dng tin u vo thi im u nm

Gi tr tng lai ca dng tin u

V d 1
Gi s bn mun tit kim khi v hu
bng vic gi tit kim ngn hng khon
tin $2000/nm. Nu li sut l 7.5%/nm
th sau 40 nm na bn s c c bao
nhiu?
FV = 2000(1.07540 1)/0.075 = 454,513.04

37

Gi tr tng lai ca dng tin u

V d 2
Bn ang tit kim mua nh v bn
ang gi ngn hng $10,000 mi nm
trong ti khon vi li sut 8%/nm.
Khon tin tit kim u tin c thc
hin ngy hm nay. Bn s c bao nhiu
vo cui nm th 3?
FV = 10,000[(1.083 1) / 0.08](1.08) =
35,061.12

38

Gi tr tng lai ca dng tin u

V d 3
Chng ta nhn c 1 s thng tin xung quanh
vic pht hnh Chng ch tit kim mua nh
do Cng ty Vinaland pht hnh di hnh thc
ngi mua s phi tr 5 triu/thng trong sut 5
nm sau khi d n hon thnh s nhn c
quyn mua cn h 60m2. Nh vy thc cht sau
5 nm bn b ra s tin l bao nhiu? (gi s
chi ph c hi ca vn u t ch n gin l li
sut tit kim hng thng ca ngn hng mc
8%/nm)
FV = 5[(1+(0.08/12))60 1) /
(0.08/12)](1+0.08/12) = 369,835 triu ng
39

Cu hi n Phn IV
Bn cn bit khon tin thanh ton cho mt
khon vay v bn mun bit cn phi vay mn
bao nhiu tin hoc bn c k hoch tit kim
phc v cho mc ch tng lai, bn s phi
tnh ton gi tr tng lai hoc hin ti ca mt
dng tin u?
Bn mun nhn c $5000 mi thng t thng
sau cho n khi v hu. Nu bn c kh nng
u t sinh li c bnh qun 0.75% /thng v
d kin cn khon thu nhp ny trong sut 25
nm, th bn phi c bao nhiu tin u t
vo ti thi im ny?
40

Xc nh s tin u - PV
C
1
PV 1
t
r
1 r

PV
C

1
1

PV r
C

1
1

41

Xc nh s tin u
Nu bn mn s tin $1,000.00 mc
li sut 11% trong 5 nm, hy xc nh s
tin cn thanh ton u?
1000 0.11
C
$270.57

1
1

5
1.11

42

Xc nh s tin u
Gi s bn mun vay $20,000 cho vic
mua xe mi. Ngn hng c th cho bn
vay vi li sut 8%/nm, tr li hng
thng (8/12 = 0.66667% /thng). Nu
bn mun vay 4 nm th s tin bn phi
tr hng thng l bao nhiu?
20,000 = C[1 1 / 1.006666748] /0.0066667
C = 488.26

43

Xc nh s tin u - FV

C
t
FV
1 r 1
r
FV
C

t
1 r 1 r

C
44

FV r

1 r 1
t

Xc nh s tin u
Nu bn mun c s tin $100,000.00
trong 5 nm na, vi mc li sut bnh
qun 11%/nm bn s phi tit kim mt
s tin u mi nm l bao nhiu?

45

100,000 0.11

1.11 1
5

$16,057.03

Xc nh s tin u da trn bng

tnh
Bn c th dng bng tnh Excel xc
nh s tin cn phi thanh ton:
PMT(rate,nper,pv,fv)
Cng thc ny tng t nh trong tnh FV, PV

Click biu tng Excel thc hnh

46

Xc nh yu t thi hn VD1
Bn s dng mt th tn dng $1000 v bn ch
c th sc tr mt khon tin ti a l
$20/thng vi li sut l 1.5%/thng. Bn phi
mt bao lu mi tr ht s tin $1000 ny?
Bt u vi cng thc v hy nh hm ln:

47

1000 = 20(1 1/1.015t) / 0.015

0.75 = 1 1 / 1.015t
1 / 1.015t = 0.25
1 / 0.25 = 1.015t
t = ln(1/0.25) / ln(1.015) = 93.111 thng = 7.76 nm

Xc nh yu t thi hn VD2
Gi s bn mn $2000 li sut 5% v
bn s phi tr hng nm khon tin bng
nhau l $734.42. Mt bao lu bn mi tr
ht khon vay trn?
2000 = 734.42(1 1/1.05t) / 0.05
0.136161869 = 1 1/1.05t
1/1.05t = 0.863838131
1.157624287 = 1.05t
t = ln(1.157624287) / ln(1.05) = 3 nm
48

Xc nh t l li sut
Gi s bn vay $10,000 t ngn hng
mua xe. Bn ng tr $207.58 /thng
trong vng 60 thng. Vy t l li sut
mt thng m bn phi tr l bao nhiu?
Bng tnh Excel:
Nper (t) = 60; PV=10,000; PMT (C) =-207.58
-> I/Y (rate) = 0.75%
Phng php th:
10,000 = 207.58[1 1 / (1+r)60] /r
49

Cu hi n Phn V
Bn mun nhn $5000 mi thng trong vng 5
nm ti. Vy th hm nay bn phi gi vo ti
khon ngn hng bao nhiu tin nu bn c th
kim c 0.75% /thng?
Nu bn ch c $200,000 gi vo Ngn hng
th sut sinh li mi thng l bao nhiu?
Gi s bn c $200,000 gi Ngn hng v c
th kim li 0.75% mi thng
Mt bao nhiu thng bn c c $5000?
Bn s nhn c bao nhiu mi thng trong
vng 5 nm?
50

KT THC