THE MYSTERIOUS BUYER OF US TREASURIES

Who is Really Behind the Belgium Buying?

Gordon T Long
6/18/2014

June 2014 Edition

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THE MYSTERIOUS BUYER OF US TREASURIES

Who is really Behind the Belgium Buying?

JUNE MONTHLY MARKET COMMENTARY

MARKET OVERVIEW ................................................................................................................................................................................ 3
I- DEFINING CHARTS ............................................................................................................................................................................... 3
Defining Chart #2 - Finding the Longer Term Super Cycle Pivot b ............................................................................................. 3
Defining Chart #3 - The Big M and Super Cycle b ...................................................................................................................... 5
Defining Chart #4 Intermediate Term Topping Process ............................................................................................................... 6
II- TARGETS ............................................................................................................................................................................................... 8
III - MONTHLY RISK & PATTERNS ......................................................................................................................................................... 9
RISK ....................................................................................................................................................................................................... 9
PATTERNS.......................................................................................................................................................................................... 11
IV STUDIES............................................................................................................................................................................................ 12
STUDIES Market Internals Need Urgent Medical Rx ................................................................................................................. 13
STUDIES Who Is Buying? .............................................................................................................................................................. 14
STUDIES A Summer Shock?......................................................................................................................................................... 15
STUDIES Tops Are A Process! ..................................................................................................................................................... 16
STRATEGIC MACRO INVESTMENT INSIGHTS Q2 2014 RETAIL CRE (RETAIL COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE) ... 17
STRATEGIC MACRO INVESTMENT INSIGHTS - Q1 2014 - UKRAINE CONFLICT & ENERGY ......................................... 19
V - TRIGGER$ ZONES ............................................................................................................................................................................ 22
VI - DRIVER$ & BIA$ ............................................................................................................................................................................... 23
VII- QUARTERLY KEY METRICS & ASSESSMENT UPDATE ...................................................................................................... 24
A - LONG TERM: Fundamentals ...................................................................................................................................................... 24
B - INTERMEDIATE TERM: Risk ..................................................................................................................................................... 26
C - SHORT TERM: Sentiment........................................................................................................................................................... 28
VIII- GORD'S VIEWS & OPINIONS........................................................................................................................................................ 31
SENTIMENT & CONFIDENCE - NERVOUSNESS........................................................................................................................ 31
EARNINGS .......................................................................................................................................................................................... 33
MARKET AT HISTORIC HIGHS ....................................................................................................................................................... 35

THE MYSTERIOUS BUYER OF US TREASURIES WHO IS REALLY BEHIND THE BELGIUM BUYING? .................... 42
WHO IS THE MYSTERIOUS BELGIUM BUYER? ............................................................................................................................... 42
5 REALISTIC POSSIBILITIES ................................................................................................................................................................ 42
THE ECB's WEAKENING "EURO" STRATEGY .................................................................................................................................. 43
FED'S TAPER DILEMMA ........................................................................................................................................................................ 44
CHINA'S CORRELATION........................................................................................................................................................................ 44
GLOBAL IMBALANCE - BIS/IMF'S GLOBAL IMBALANCE PREDICTAMENT................................................................................ 46
THE LEAST CONSIDERED & MOST OVERLOOKED - THE US TREASURY ............................................................................... 48
HOW WOULD THE US TREASURY HIDE THE SOURCE OF FUNDS? ......................................................................................... 50
US TREASURY GOAL ............................................................................................................................................................................. 53
'FINANCIAL REPRESSION' IS THE MACRO-PRUDENTIAL STRATEGY ...................................................................................... 58
CONCLUSIONS ........................................................................................................................................................................................ 59

June 2014 Edition

2

Copyright 2014 GordonTLong.com

Restricted
All Rights Reserved

general@GordonTLong.com