P DNG M PHNG MONTE-CARLO PHN TCH RI RO CHI

PH CA D N XY DNG TRONG GIAI ON THI CNG

RISK ANALYSIS FOR BUILDING PROJECTS IN CONSTRUCTION
PHASE

Nguyn Quc Tun
a
, Lu Trng Vn
a
va PGS. L Kiu
b

a: Khoa K Thut Xy Dng, Trng i Hc Bch Khoa, i hc Quc Gia Tp. H Ch
Minh
b: Trng i hc Kin Trc H Ni, H Ni
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1- t vn :
Qu trnh thc hin mt d n xy dng tim n
rt nhiu ri ro, nht l trong giai on thi cng.
Giai on thi cng l giai on di nht v rt
nhy cm i vi cc tc ng ca rt nhiu yu
t so vi tt c cc giai on khc ca mt d n
u t xy dng. Vai tr ca nh thu trong giai
on ny l v cng quan trng. Hng nm trn
t nc ta, c hng trm nh thu t kinh
nghim nht cho n mi ra i b tht bi trong
vic kinh doanh ca mnh, v ng sau nhng
tht bi lun km theo vic tht thot hoc
pht sinh kinh ph hng ngn t ng. Tnh hnh
bin ng v chnh tr, kinh t ca th gii tc
ng khng nh n gi c mt s loi vt t.
Gi cc loi vt t xy dng cng khng ngoi
l, chng khng ngng bin ng theo mt
quy lut kh on trc c. iu ny nh
hng khng nh n kinh ph xy dng cc
cng trnh, nht l trong giai on nn kinh t
ca t nc ta ang pht trin mnh.
Quan tm n vic phn tch ri ro cho d n c
bit i vi cc d n u t xy dng, c
cnh bo v ch trng trong nhng nm gn y.
Do xut mt b khung cng vic phn
tch v qun l ri ro cho cc d n xy dng l
mt vn ht sc cn thit trong giai an hin
nay. Bi bo cung cp mt quy trnh phn tch ri
ro nh l mt cng c ca qun l ri ro cho cc
d n xy dng. Mt phng php kh n gin
cng c gii thiu phn tch ri ro v mt
chi ph ca nh thu trong giai on thi cng vi
cng c h tr l phn mm phn tch ri ro
chuyn dng Crystal Ball

2- Mc tiu, phm vi v i tng nghin cu:
Mc tiu chnh ca vic nghin cu chnh l:
- Nhn dng cc nhn t ri ro tc ng n chi
ph ca nh thu trong giai on thi cng bng
bng cu hi (questionnaire survey). i tng
kho st l cc chuyn gia v k s lm vic
trn cng trng
- Thit lp m hnh m phng phn tch ri ro
tc ng n chi ph ca nh thu vi:
Bin ri ro (risk variables) l gi thp
trn xy dng, gi xi mng, thi gian
hon thnh tng cng tc thi cng (ch
xem xt cc cng tc chnh)
Bin kt qu (result variables) l chi
ph (gi vn) ca nh thu
Phm vi nghin cu: cc d n nh cng nghip
va v nh (s lng: 20 d n)
Thi gian nghin cu: cc d n xy ra t nm
2000 n nm 2004.
a im: TP.H Ch Minh, ng Nai, B Ra
Vng Tu.

3-Tng quan:
Mt s yu t ri ro trong ngnh xy dng
c cc tc gi trong v ngoi nc quan tm,
c th l:
Wang(1987) (cited in Chang, 1990) ch ra rng
mt s hot ng trong cng tc qun l xy
dng bao gm: Hoch nh, T chc, ng vin,
Hng dn, Thng tin, Kim sot, Phi hp v
d bo. Trong bin u vo ca n chnh l:
vt liu, trang thit b, nhn cng, ti chnh. y
l nhng yu t v cng quan trng quyt nh
gi thng thu v thnh cng ca d n (Asley et
al., 1987; Pinto and Slevin, 1988, cited in Liu,
1999).
Theo ngun ca Surety Association of Canada,
2003 nhn nh 05 nhn t nh hng rt ln
n s tht bi ca nh thu chnh l: phm vi
hot ng ca nh thu, trnh v k thut thi
cng, h thng qun l, s sch thanh ton, vn
ni b.
T Vng(2002), a ra mt nhn t ht sc
tng qut, tc ng n tin thi cng cng
trnh chnh l thi gian hon thnh tng cng
tc. V bng phn tch m phng tc gi nh
lng xc xut hon thnh d n trong mt
khong thi gian nht nh.
Phm L Minh Thng (2002), bng phng php
phn tch nh tnh xut 5 nhn t ri ro tc
ng vo tin thi cng cng trnh l: mi
trng chnh tr, thin nhin, c s h tng; mi
trng kinh t, tin t, thi trng; nhn t k
thut bn trong d n; nhn t phi k thut bn
trong d n; nhn t thc hin thi cng.
Tham kho cc nghin cu trn v mt s nghin
cu khc, nhn thy rng cc yu t tc ng gy
ra ri ro cho nh thu l rt nhiu. Ni chung tt
c cc yu t gy tc hi cho nh thu u nh
hng n chi ph ca h. Do rt cn thit
da vo cc nghin cu trn v vic phng vn
trc tip kt hp vi vic s dng bng cu hi
m i tng chnh l cc chuyn gia v cc nh
thu xy dng hin nay tm ra cc nhn t ch
yu gy ra ri ro chi ph cho nh thu.
3.Cc nhn t nh hng n ri ro chi ph
ca nh thu:

Thng qua vic phng vn trc tip v s dng
bng cu hi cc nhn t ri ro c nhn
dng v tm tt nh sau:























Da vo kt qu phng vn v cc bng cu hi
trn, cc nhn t nh hng n ri ro chi ph
nh thu c nhn dng: thi gian hon
thnh tng cng tc thi cng v s bin ng
gi ca hai loi vt t ch yu l Thp v Xi
mng.

4- Cc gi thit nghin cu:
4.1- Gi thit v nhn t th nht:
Cc cng tc xy lp c xt chnh l
cc cng tc xy lp chnh ca cng trnh
trong mt tin thi cng tng th.
Thi gian hon thnh mt cng tc chnh
l khong thi gian thi cng cng tc
tnh t thi im bt u n thi im
kt thc, hon thnh khi lng ca cng
tc cn c theo h s thit k.
4.2- Gi thit v nhn t th hai:
Nhn t bin ng gi vt t c xem xt trong
nghin cu ny tp trung vo s bin ng gi
ca hai loi vt t l thp v xi mng.Gi vt liu
c tham kho trong phm vi khu vc tp.H
Ch Minh
4.3- Gi thit chung:
Cc yu t mi trng chnh sch, thin
nhin khng c s thay i ln, t ngt
nh hng n tin v chi ph ca nh
thu.
Trong qu trnh xy dng khng c nhng
s thay i qu ln v ph ch u t.
Vic cn i ti chnh trong ni b ca nh
thu n nh v p ng c nhu cu ca
cng trng.
Nhu cu s dng nhn cng v my mc
trn cng trng c p ng kp thi.
5. Mi quan h tng quan gi c ca cc loi
vt t:
Nh cp trn, da vo kt qu thu thp
bng cu hi v vic phng vn trc tip,
nghin cu thng k v a ra gi ca hai
loi vt liu chnh c kh nng nh hng n
chi ph ca nh thu l thp v xi mng:
Vt liu thp c chia lm 3 loi: Thp
hnh, thp c <=10, thp c >10.
Vt liu xi mng: xi mng H Tin
PC30.

Bng 3- Ma trn h s tng quan gia gi cc
loi vt liu

Thp
<=10
Thp
>10
Thp
hnh
Xi
mng
Thp <=10 1,00
Thp >10 0,99 1,00
Thp hnh 0,98 1,00 1,00
Xi m ng 0,66 0,66 0,62 1,00


Nhn t T l %
Thi gian thi cng 83
Gi vt t 60
Chi ph nhn cng 53
Nhn t khc 20
Bng 1 -Kt qu thu c t vic
phng vn 30 i tng
- Hu ht cc k s trong ngnh (89,5%)
u nhn nh rng c mi quan h trc
tip gia thi gian hon thnh d n v
chi ph thc hin.
- Hu ht (74,77%) cc k s chu trch
nhim v d ton cng trnh khng nh
s bin ng v gi vt t(gi thp, xi mng),
chi ph nhn cng v trang thit b c nh
hng rt ln n chi ph d n
Bng 2- Kt qu thu c t 107 bng cu hi
Bng 4- Hm phn b xc xut ca gi cc loi
vt t

Thp
<=10
Thp
>10
Thp
hnh
Xi
mng
Phn phi xc xut Gama Gama Gama Normal
Ghi ch: Gi thp trn c tham kho t ngun
ca S Ti chnh - Vt gi TP.HCM, 1999-2004)
5.Tin thi cng cng trnh v mi quan h
tng quan gia cc nhn t ri ro:
Nghin cu s phn tch da trn tin thi cng
nh cng nghip c tnh ton da trn 29 cng
tc chnh, khi lng(tham kho), v mi quan
h tng quan ca chng nh sau:

Bng 5- Tm tt cc thng s ca cc cng tc xy lp cng trnh
STT Tn cng tc VT
Khi lng
(Tham Kho)
Thi gian
thi cng
(ngy)
Hm phn phi
xc xut dung cho m
phng
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6)
1 o t mng
m
902,00 4 Bta
2 B tng lt mng
m
19,00 5 Logistic
3 Cp pha mng
m
102,00 6 Gama
4 Cp thp mng
kg
3.943,83 6 Weibull
5 B tng mng
m
51,00 6 Logistic
6 Tho CP mng
m
102,00 6 Bta
7 Lp t mng
m
831,00 4 Gama
8 Ct thp king
kg
4.977,60 8 Pareto
9 Cp pha king
m
520,00 8 Uniform
10 B tng king
m
38,50 8 Bta
11 Tho d CP king
m
520,00 8 Uniform
12 Ct thp ct
kg
7.432,00 8 Gama
13 Cp pha ct
m
270,45 9 Weibull
14 B tng ct
m
23,00 9 Extreme value
15 Tho d CP ct
m
270,45 9 Extreme value
16 Xy tng 200
m
1.142,00 28 Weibull
17 T tng, ct
m
2.775,50 28 Extreme value
18 SXLD h thng ca
m
387,50 5 Gama
19 B matit
m
3.134,50 15 Extreme value
20 Sn nc
m
3.134,50 15 Extreme value
21 SXLD khung thp
kg
48.235,00 23 Weibull
22 San i, lu ln nn
m
3.672,00 4 Weibull
23 Ri , lu ln cht
m
774,00 6 Logistic
24 Ct thp nn
kg
8.090,00 3 Weibull
25 B tng nn
m
367,20 2 Bta
26 Xoa nn
m
3.672,00 2 Weibull
27 Lp t h thng in
m
3.672,00 15 Lognormal
28 V sinh cng trng
m
3.713,00 2 Weibull
29 Lp tole m mu
m
3.713,00 2 Pareto
Tng thi gian thi cng cng trnh = 190

Ghi ch: Hm phn phi xc xut ca cc nhn t c thng k v kim nh vi d liu u vo l
29 cng tc tng t ca 20 cng trnh trong qu kh ca nh thu.

6.Phn tch d liu v kt qu:
6.1- Phn tch d liu:

Vic phn tch d liu da trn cc nhn t u vo l cc bin ri ro ng vi hm phn b xc xut v
h s tng quan tng ng vi m hnh tc ng nh sau:


































Hnh 1-M hnh tc ng v phn tch ri ro

Vi s liu nh trn, cng vi n gi thi cng, nh mc vt liu ( thp, xi mng) cho tng cng tc
tng ng, cn c theo m hnh m phng Monte-Carlo vi s h tr ca phn mm Crystal Ball nh
trn s cho chng ta bit kt qu ca chi ph (gi vn) ca nh thu.

6.2- Kt qu phn tch:
Vi khi lng v tin tham kho nh trn
kt hp vi n gi thi cng, nh mc vt t
v chi ph nhn cng v my ca tng cng tc
ca nh thu C.I.D( mang tnh tham kho),
v vi mc chi ph gin tip l 2.000.000
ng/ngy ta s c kt qu nh sau:

B ng 6- Bng kt qu tr thng k ca gi vn
Statistics for Display Range: Value
Trials 9.997
Mean 3.247.683.806
Median 3.222.396.328
Mode ---
Standard Deviation 124.720.182
Variance 2E+16
Skewness 1,01
Crystal ball pht bin
ngu nhin
Hm phn b xc xut v h
s tng quan ca cc bin
Thi gian hon
thnh cc cng tc
(t 1-> 29)
Gi thp <=10,
>10,
Thp hnh, Xi mng
Thi gian hon
thnh cc cng tc
(t 1-> 29)
Gi thp <=10,
>10,
Thp hnh, Xi mng
Tng chi ph
Nhn Cng+my
Tng chi ph vt
liu
GI VN (i)
Tng chi ph
gin tip
XC XUT TCH LY
CA GI VN
i < =10.000 ; i = i+1 i > 10.000
Bt u
Kt thc
i = 1
Kurtosis 3,83
Coeff. of Variability 0,04
Range Minimum 3.000.000.000
Range Maximum 3.700.000.000
Range Width 700.000.000
Mean Std. Error 1.256.662,40















Hnh 2 -Xc xut tch ly gi vn ca nh thu

7. Kt lun v kin ngh:
Kt qu phn tch ch ra rng vi s bin
ng v gi vt t ( thp, xi mng) v thi gian
hon thnh cng tc, gi vn nh thu bin
ng vi mt bin cc i l 700.000.000
ng. Trong tr trung bnh ca gi vn nm
trong khong 3.247.683.806 124.720.182
ng, y l khong gi tr ng tin cy (95%).
Kt qu ny rt hu ch i vi nh thu trong
vic ra quyt nh u thu.
Cn c vo kt qu trn, nh thu cn c th
bit c xc xut hon thnh cng trnh vi
mt gi vn nht nh. ng thi da trn kt
qu trn nh thu cn c th bit c xc xut
t c li nhun mong mun thng qua kh
nng chi tr ca ch u t.
Tm li, kt qu nghin cu ch ra rng cc
nhn t tc ng mnh n ri ro chi ph ca
nh thu bao gm: thi gian hon thnh tng
cng tc v gi vt t ( thp, xi mng). Bn
cnh thng qua m hnh tnh ton da trn
phng php m phng Monte-Carlo vi s h
tr ca phn mm Crystal Ball, kt qu phn
tch cho ta thy c kh nng v mc
nh hng ca cc bin ri ro n chi ph ca
nh thu. Trn c s , quyt nh cui cng
ca nh thu cn ty thuc vo tnh phiu lu,
chp nhn ri ro v c bin php, m hnh
kim sot ri ro mt cch hp l ca mnh.
Tuy nhin pht trin tip tc cho phng
php ny, cc tc gi ngh cc nghin cu
tip theo nn i su vo lnh vc nh dn dng
nh cc cao c vn phng, chung c v ng
thi kt hp vi bi ton ti u ha v tin
v chi ph gii quyt mt cch trit vn
.

8.Ti liu tham kho:

1. T Vng, 1998. Nghin cu v p dng
m hnh tnh ton gii quyt cc bi ton ti
u ha s mng v thi gian v chi ph,
c xt ri ro v mt thi gian. Lun vn Thc
S, i hc Bch Khoa TP.HCM.112p
2. Gary Leonard Cave, 2002. Qualitative
Analasis, Methodologies in USA. Puerto
Vallatar Mexico March 2002.
3. Raftery, J.. Risk analysis in project
management. E and FN Spon. 1994
4. Glenday, Graham. Monte- Carlo Simulation
Techniques in the valuation of Truncated
Distribution in the Context of Project
Appraisal, Reading for Risk Analysis.
Harvard University 1996.
5. Merrow E.W., Yarossi M.E., Assessing
project cost and Schedule Risk. ACCE
Internationals profestional practice guide to
risk, ACCE Transactions 1990.
6. Nystrom Paul C, Ramamurthy K., Wilson
A.L. Organization context, Climate and
innovativeness: adoption of imaging
technology, Journal of Engineering and
technology Management (JET M) 2002.