1

March 18, 2014

Sachchidanand Shukla
SVP - Economist - Institutional Equity Research
sachchidanand.shukla@axiscap.in
91 22 4325 1108
Shiv Nanda, AVP - Consumer
shiv.nanda@axiscap.in 91 22 4325 1124
India: The first 100 days from May 16
2
From Elections to Independence day
Opinion polls and markets seem to have already elected a new stable government led by Narendra Modi. It has also
sneered at AAP and the third fronts ability to engineer a fractured mandate. We discuss the key factors (personalities
and states etc) on which the above premise and expected outcome hinges
Markets also seem to be factoring in:
Return to fiscal prudence: Huge government borrowings of Rs 5 trn+ threaten to crowd out private investments and vitiate the
interest rate cycle. If the new government articulates its roadmap of returning towards fiscal prudence, investor confidence
will favor India, easing pressure on Indias sovereign rating and currency
Improved investment climate: Easier FDI/ investment climate, divestments, faster clearances, key reforms such as GST, etc
That any new government has to decisively implement a huge list of reforms is a given. The question is, how markets
will judge the new leadership in the first 100 days, which will give it confidence of kickstarting a virtuous cycle. Thus,
in this report, we identify some of the softer issues, which unless tackled will make the euphoria over change of guard
largely ephemeral:
Mindset: What are the few big transformational ideas which can restore faith in the India story? Can the government think
like a facilitator vs. a landlord? Will it give importance to skilling our labor force vs. simplistic dole-outs?
Articulation of intent: Inclusiveness (will it embrace states) and decentralized decision making; can it identify newer engines
of growth (urbanization, revival of manufacturing, tourism?), employment (tax breaks for investments that create new jobs,
Construction, Textiles?) and infrastructure (create state owned land bank companies which will auction these ready parcels
for infra projects, creation of an Infrastructure Ministry to obviate oversight from dozens of ministries, Railways?)
Credibility: Budget will be the first litmus test can it send a bold message through complete diesel deregulation? Can
consistency in tax policy become a hallmark? Can the government restore the credibility of institutions?
18 MAR 2014 Thematic Report
3
Contents
Page
Political math: What is being factored in 4
First 100 days: Policy direction 11
Appendix
Governance deficit, economic weakness beckons leadership change 20
Momentum in BJPs favor 21
Indias other Balance of Payments problem 22
Election schedule 23
Current Lok Sabha Composition 24
Election History 25
Distribution of Lok Sabha seats and ruling parties 26
Regional parties have witnessed big traction 27
18 MAR 2014 Thematic Report
Political math: What is being factored in
5
Possible scenarios for BJP-led NDA based on opinion polls
NDA
230
TMC
26
YSR Congress
12
PM Core*
NDA
200
NDA
180
TDP
10
YSR Congress
12
TDP
10
TMC
26
BJD
14
Possible post election allies** Swingers/outside support
At this point, political momentum is shifting towards the NDA
TRS
6
Scenario:
High probability
1
Scenario:
Medium
probability
2
Scenario:
Low probability 3
*Note: NDA comprises of BJP, Shiv Sena, SAD & LJP, ** Seat projections are average of mean predictions by CSDS and Nielsen survey
#includes independents and other smaller parties
Others#
20
18 MAR 2014 Thematic Report
6
Third front (+ UPA ) may not be the feared party spoiler after all
Core allies
Extended allies
(pre/post
elections)
Swing
possibilities/
outside
support
Desperate
combinations
Total
core +
extended
53 70
236 337
Mentored by leaders of the Left and
regional parties, a non-Congress and non-
BJP front took shape in February 14
Importantly, Jayalalithaas AIADMK has
already broken the alliance with Left in TN
TMC & BSP have decided to stay away
from this front, weakening the core
2 other important members Naveen
Patnaik s BJD (13 LS seats) and AGP have
also distanced themselves from the
coalition, impacting prospects
Extrapolating opinion poll indications, we
find that third front + UPAs seat count will
not be sufficient to form a government, even
if one assumes that all possible candidates
come on board (refer chart on RHS)
Key Risks:
BJP faltering in UP (<40 seats)
INC doing better than expected
~15 parties, 4 PM aspirants and lack of common ideological space make it a seemingly unlikely proposition.
Source: Times Now, Nielsen, CNN-IBN, Axis Capital
Note: Projected seats is the most optimistic projection among opinion poll surveys
18 MAR 2014 Thematic Report
Party Leader Proj. seats* Existing seats
Left (4 parties) 29 25
Total 23 25
SP Mulayam Singh 17 22
JD (U) Nitish Kumar 6 20
JD (S) Deve Gowda 5 1
JVM 2 2
Total 30 45
INC 110 206
UPA allies 15 23
TRS K. Chandrashekar Rao 8 2
RJD Lalu Prasad 10 4
BJD Naveen Patnaik 16 14
DMK 16 18
Total 175 267
AAP 8 0
7
Fourth front: The Last Mile enablers or party spoilers?
West Bengal has 4
th

highest LS seats at 42
TMC won 43% of seats
in GE 2009
Withdrew support to
UPA in 2012 after
demands (rollback of
diesel price hike, FDI in
retail) unmet
Despite negative press,
ruling TMC remains
strong in the state
Major angst brewing against INC
and SP (ruling party) due to riots,
which could swing the electorate
towards the next formidable
opposition
Though BSP lost in 2012 assembly
elections, there is no significant
erosion in loyal support base
A Congress-BSP tie up could put a
spoke in the wheel for BJP in UP as
it would lead to a consolidation of
Muslim and Dalit votes

Emotive appeal
Tamil Nadu has the 6
th

highest LS seats at 39
After a disappointing show
in 2009 LS elections,
AIADMK won the 2011
assembly election by
securing a simple majority
Polls indicate momentum
could benefit the party in
the upcoming general
elections

Mamata Banerjee CM,
WB (Trinamool Congress)
J. Jayalalithaa CM,
Tamil Nadu (AIADMK)
Y.S Jaganmohan Reddy
leader (YSR Congress)
Mayawati leader
(BSP)
Banking on the Masses Momentum on her side.
The dark horse
Andhra Pradesh sent 37
MPs to the parliament
However, with
bifurcation of Andhra
Pradesh into Telengana
& Seemandhra ,YSR will
be aiming to get a bulk
of the 25 seats in
Seemandhra
capitalizing on emotive
appeal of joint AP

If the NDA only manages to gather180-200 seats, forging alliances with large regional parties will be pertinent
in the backdrop of Indias other Balance of Payments problem (ref appendix)
*Note: seat projections based on the most optimistic among poll surveys
18 MAR 2014 Thematic Report
8
Swing states for BJP to hit 200!
170-180 seats will see direct competition between BJP and INC. However, mission 272 rests on delivering in
states such as UP & Bihar where it is a multi-cornered fight
Direct fight BJP vs. INC
BJP vs. regional parties
Regional parties slugfest
5
80
40
25
25
48
28
42
39
21
14
29
42
Note: Numbers represent
Lok Sabha seats for that state
Uttar Pradesh (UP): Strong comeback and
polarization after Muzaffarnagar riots, and ruling
SPs bungling on governance also helps
Andhra Pradesh (AP): Limited presence of BJP
hence YSR Congress or TDP alignment key. TRSs
reluctance to ally with INC is a key positive
Tamil Nadu (TN): Ruled by AIADMK, a former BJP
ally. The party has a clear edge, but has joined
the 3rd front. Importantly, some other influential
entities ie PMK & DMDK have also allied with BJP
Bihar (BH): Nitish has lost ground, BJP gaining
momentum and has tied up with Paswans LJP and has
managed to sway members from RJD too
Maharashtra (MH): Tie
ups with RPI and an
understanding with MNS
on contesting LS polls ,as
long as it does not upset
its equation with SS, will
be a positive
18 MAR 2014 Thematic Report
9
Uttar Pradesh the big fight!
Mission 272 hinges on BJPs performance in Eastern UP
6 mn new voters (5% of total UP electorate),
of which most are located in urban areas
where BJP has traditionally been strong
BJPs prospects have strengthened after the
communal riots
Versus others, BJP has averaged the
lowest seat to vote conversion (0.8x) over
the past 3 general elections in UP
INC-BSP potential pre-poll alliance:
Secular votes could move from a
declining Congress to BSP
Tailwinds for BJP Headwinds for BJP
18 MAR 2014 Thematic Report
Region: Upper Doab
No of seats: 15
Upper hand: BJP
Insight: Strong support
from upper middle
class and Jats
Region: Bundelkhand
No of seats: 4
Upper hand: BSP & BJP
Region: Lower Doab
No of seats: 11
Upper hand: SP
Region: Avadh
No of seats: 18
Upper hand: BSP, BJP
Region: Rohailkhand
No of seats: 11
Upper hand: BSP
Insight: Bi-polar contest between
Modi and one of the other three
BSP, SP and INC
Region: Poorvanchal
No of seats: 21
Upper hand: BSP & BJP
Insight: Bi-polar contest
between Modi and one of the
other three BSP, SP and INC
10
Political alliances: Momentum in BJPs favor
AIADMK, which is expected to be a
big winner in TN, calls off alliance
with 3rd front
DMDK and PMK in TN have entered
into negotiations with BJP over
forming a pre-poll alliance
Arrangement in Haryana ensures
2 cornered fights between 3 parties
(including BJP) and the Congress
Naveen Patnaik of BJD distances himself
from 3rd front
BJP forms pre-poll alliance with LJP in Bihar
to garner Muslim votes
TRS rejects alliance with Congress in AP
TMCs political engagement with Anna
Hazare may eat into AAPs votes
Poll survey projects NDAs seat
count to increase to ~220
CNN-IBN CSDS
survey projects NDAs
seat count at 176
Plenty of positive developments for BJP in the run up to elections
18 MAR 2014 Thematic Report
First 100 days: Policy direction
12
Credibility
Emphasize consistency in tax policy
Budget will be the first litmus test for
the new government. Can articulate
on subsidy management (esp diesel
deregulation) and realistic revenue
measures
Articulation of intent
Spell out new engines of
Employment:: Construction, tax
breaks for investments that create
jobs: textiles?)
Growth : Urbanization, Revival of
Manufacturing (Spl Enclaves),
SMEs
Infra: Creation of a separate Infra
ministry? Govt owned Land bank
corporations for Infra projects?
Railways as a big capex driver?
Inclusiveness
Dialogue with states,
decentralization of power to
address GST/DTC, Land
acquisition, Mining, APMC
GST: Provide momentum post Oct
after the 14
th
Finance Commission
report
Dole out vs. Skilling/Soft Infra,
health/education / Use food &
education vouchers ?
Mindset
Paradigm shifts in thinking? Govt
as landlord to facilitator for pvt
sector
Remove fear psychosis in the
bureaucracy and private sector
Restore respect for institutions &
institutionalization of processes
Strong PMO that leads and
coordinates effectively between
various ministries and catalyzes
execution
The first 3 months: Markets await a change in mindset of govt, not
incrementalism!
12
18 MAR 2014 Thematic Report
No magic economic wand. Implementation of new ideas eg Manufacturing Revival or new Urbanization wave
etc will take years. It is just the change in mindset that can spark a new momentum
13
Left wing policies
The middle path
Policy tilt towards the middle path due to coalition politics
No privatization
No FDI in
retail/insurance
Spike in social
spending
Job reservations
Financial sector reforms, bond markets, Bank licensing
Divestments/privatization
Infra creation (Railways, DFC), new urban centres
Stable tax regime
Calibrated FDI in Insurance/defense
Capital market sops
Repeal of socialist schemes such as MNREGA & Food
security not possible but implementation can be tweaked,
eg states can be given voluntary exit in return for increased
allocation for skill development, infra spending etc

Right wing policies
Complete
privatization
Labor reforms
Raise defense
spending
BJP
208
Swingers
111
Anti-BJP
206
18 MAR 2014 Thematic Report
14
Tackle subsidies
Guarantees to keep food & fertilizer
subsidy elevated. Hence:
Deregulate diesel
DCT in LPG/ Kerosene
Initiate food & education vouchers
Budget will be the litmus Test: Focus to be on quality vs. quantity
FY15E Fiscal Deficit at
4.1% with
overoptimistic revenue
& underestimated
expenditure
New govt can peg
higher at ~4.5% but
initiate qualitative
changes
Rating Agencies / Investors
Restate revenue realistically
Provide for GST compensation to
states to get them on board
Bind govt to firm fiscal
targets - FRBM II
18 MAR 2014 Thematic Report
15
A realistic budget by the new govt?





~13.4% nominal GDP growth and assumed tax
buoyancy of 1.4x is very optimistic
Aggressive assumptions though Surcharge on rich
retained to help garner some revenues
Does not consider gas price hike (impact of
~Rs 120 bn), + ~Rs 340 bn worth of subsidy
rolled over
Fuel subsidy provided for = Rs 250 bn. Eventual
subsidy may be higher by ~250 bn.
Deficit reduction of 0.5% in FY15 largely revenue
driven and hence any shortfall will need
corresponding cut in plan expenditure yet again
(Rs bn)
FY14
RE
Budget ed YoY
14RE/ 14BE
FY15 L ikel y
New govt
FY15
BE
YoY Change
15BE/ 14RE
Gross Tax Revenue 11, 589 (6) 13, 432 13, 792 19
Net Tax Revenue 8, 360 (5) 9, 504 9, 864 18
Non- Tax Revenue 1, 932 12 1, 800 1, 807 (6)
Tot al Revenue Receipt 10, 293 (3) 11, 304 11, 671 13
Expendit ure
Interest Payments 3,801 3 4,270 4,270 12
Defence 1,248 7 1,300 1,344 8
Subsidies 2,555 11 2,793 2,557 0
Food 920 2 1,200 1,150 25
Fertilizer 680 3 800 680 (0)
Petroleum 855 32 700 634 (26)
Non Pl an Expendit ure 10, 277 4 11, 272 11, 078 8
Non Pl an Capit al Exp 872 (26) 1, 000 1, 001 15
Pl an Expendit ure 4, 755 (14) 5, 244 5, 553 17
Tot al Expendit ure 15, 904 (4) 17, 516 17, 632 11
Revenue Deficit 3, 703 - 4, 368 3, 829 -
% of GDP (3. 3) - (3. 4) (3. 0) -
Fiscal Deficit 5, 245 - 5, 612 5, 286 -
% of GDP (4. 6) - (4. 4) (4. 1) -
18 MAR 2014 Thematic Report
Source: budget documents, Axis Capital
Food Rs 267 bn overdue rolled over
The new government will have to present a budget with realistic numbers
and yet demonstrate its commitment to fiscal consolidation
16
Reforms bucket list for the next government
Opening up of coal sector for private players for merchant mining
Enabling environment for Coal India to take firm coal pricing decisions
Provide faster environment/forest clearance to captive coal blocks
Coal block allocation - Implement policy to auction coal blocks through competitive bidding
Railway infra: Faster implementation of 3 mega railway projects (~100 km each) can augment coal supply by ~300 MTPA
Faster E&P approvals to promote domestic oil/gas production
Subsidy Rationalization: Diesel Deregulation/ restart DBT in cooking fuel subsidy
Rationalization of state specific taxes on crude to provide level playing field to all refineries
SEB financials: Ensure regular tariff hikes and reduction in T&D losses in SEBs through regular monitoring by the Finance
Ministry and using the influence of PSU lenders
Reduction of T&D losses Incentivize state governments to reduce power theft
Clearances: ~9GW of coal/hydro generation capacity stalled on account of fuel/clearances/financing issues
Faster environmental/forest clearance for transmission lines
Govt. to kick start infra investments via EPC model e.g. Roads - 15,000 kms of NHDP yet to be bid (With a D:E of 0.6x, NHAI
has requisite funding)
Revive interest in BOT projects: Approximately INR 100 bn worth of road projects stuck for premium renegotiation
Ports Kick start tendering (e.g. 4th terminal of JPNT port)
Metro - Contracts for Ahmedabad, Pune, Jaipur, Mumbai (Phase II and III), Bangalore (Phase II) and Delhi (Phase III) city
Airport - Award contracts for new airports (New Mumbai + 16 other)
Coal
Oil & Gas
Power
Infrastructure
18 MAR 2014 Thematic Report
17
What do markets want to see on Infra financing
Restarting construction This can only happen by the new govt. on EPC basis. Note, there are hardly any PPP projects
in Gujarat (e.g. Jyoti Gram project is a prime example of EPC working well)
Monetizing existing assets by giving them to private cos. will ensure better use of the assets while unlocking money for
the govt. to create new assets with long term risk capital!
Use of carrot and stick approach to deal with defaulting cos. and lax banks
Power: Improving viability of SEBs through a disciplined approach of regular tariff hikes and reduction in T&D losses
through modernization. While SEBs is a state subject, Central govt can force these measures through Finance Ministry/
RBI by curbing lending to SEBs
Coal India can increase production by at least 10% from existing mines without new capacity
Roads: The govt. has the funds to finance new assets - Example: NHAI has 15,000 kms of roads yet to award under the
NHDP. Total cost expected to be Rs 1.8 trn. Even if NHAI were to undertake entirely on EPC, they can fund the same.
Cash balance of Rs 110 bn with annual premium payments of Rs 100 bn; Net debt of Rs 64 bn only
Railways 300 kms of railway linkage can help increase supply by 300 MT this needs to be done urgently. Railways
are also an easy place to start as can easily demonstrate impact in 2 years itself
Secondary financing IIFCL / Infra debt funds have been a good initiative trying to match long term funding for long
gestation projects however, they are only looking to finance completed projects post 1 year of operations currently and
those good assets banks are not willing to sell (theyd rather sell loans for assets under construction)
Currently secondary financing not working as over-regulated - Relaxation of norms needed; must leave economics to the market
18 MAR 2014 Thematic Report
18
What can the government do over a longer term?

Income
PSUs dividends: > US$5 bn
GST, DTC and service taxes can add up to 2% of GDP
and substantially to tax collection over the next few
years if implemented successfully across India
Expenditure
Cut in oil subsidies by diesel deregulation
Save 10-15% of money spent on subsidies by
implementing DCT
Food & Education vouchers
Value of government owned land: US$ 1.2 trn
Value of PSUs: US$ 600 bn
Only 50 of the 223 PSUs are listed
Non PSU stakes: US$10 bn
SUUTI stake in 19 companies including ITC, L&T, Axis
Bank, and puts on HZL, Balco, VSNL, etc
Auctioning invaluable national resources
Coal mines, oilfields, telecom spectrum, etc
Encash assets Manage P&L
Dedicated rail freight corridor, Bullet
Trains
Urbanization wave - Creation of new
cities, new airports and ports
Untangle the power sector, restructure
SEBs and fix fuel supply issues
Urban infrastructure, e.g. metro-rail,
bullet trains
Revamp the energy sector

Propel growth
Clear policies for accessing Indian
consumer and financial markets
Transparent policies for exploiting
natural resources: coal, iron ore, oil,
shale gas, etc
Consistent tax policies
Kick start infrastructure spending Attract domestic investments Attract FDI
Single window clearances,
transparent laws and administration
Fast tracking skill development
institutes,
New bank licenses
In a demand constrained world, India has the luxury of supply side issues which are addressable through
domestic policy changes
18 MAR 2014 Thematic Report
Appendix
Politics
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4
Governance deficit, economic weakness beckons leadership change
1987-1990
Corruption became a big
issue with the Bofors
scandal break out.
3 prime ministers within
3years
India faced a BoP crisis
leading the country to pledge
its gold with the IMF
Interest rates during this
period were 20%+
INC with the help
of left parties
formed the
government
This period was
marked by a
significant
liberalization drive,
industrial
delicensing and
tariff reforms
1st time a united
front of parties
managed to form a
government
This phase saw
capital gains
waiver, several PSU
divestments and
reforms in telecom
and power sector
Coalition
politics was
at its worst
with the
country
seeing 3
prime
ministers in 3
years

Fiscal deficit
jumped to
6%+ from
4% in 1996
Intl. sanctions
imposed post
Indias
peaceful
nuke tests
Kargil war
Numerous
scandals,
corruption
& policy
paralysis
Persistent
inflation
Growth
rates <5%
Fiscal
deficit
worrisome
1991-96 1996-99 1999-04 2009-14
5.3
43%
7.3
25%
6.7
-1%
8.1
9%
5
2%
GDP growth
Sensex CAGR
?
2014 2004-09
UPA I reaped the
benefits of a global
upturn & reforms of
the previous govt

8.4
11%
18 MAR 2014 Thematic Report
21
Momentum in BJPs favor
Source:
Medium risk
High risk
Low risk
18 MAR 2014 Thematic Report
States Seats
BJP seat count
2009 2014 proj Change
Uttar Pradesh 80 10 44 34
Maharashtra 48 9 19 10
Andhra Pradesh 42 0 0 0
West Bengal 42 1 1 0
Bihar 40 12 24 12
Tamil Nadu 39 0 0 0
Madhya Pradesh 29 16 24 8
Karnataka 28 19 15 (4)
Gujarat 26 15 19 4
Rajasthan 25 4 20 16
Odisha 21 0 2 2
Kerala 20 0 1 1
Assam 14 4 5 1
Jharkhand 14 8 12 4
Punjab 13 1 3 2
Chhattisgarh 11 10 8 (2)
Haryana 10 0 6 6
Delhi 7 0 1 1
Jammu and Kashmir 6 0 0 0
Uttarakhand 5 0 4 4
Himachal Pradesh 4 3 4 1
Others (incl. UT) 19 4 4 0
Tot al 543 116 216
Risk
Taking a cue from BJPs
performance in the recent state
assembly elections and poll
surveys, we believe the party
could comfortably squeeze 70
seats from its stronghold states
(Gujarat, Rajasthan, Madhya
Pradesh and Chhattisgarh) alone!
22
There is a already clamor for grant of special status (~ Rs 1 tn worth of funds pa) from the above states, which has
been used by the Centre to woo regional parties. Seemandhras inclusion in the existing 11 Special Category States will
raise such demands from a horde of other states like Odisha, Jharkhand, Chhattisgarh, Rajasthan
Indias other Balance of Payments problem
West Bengal: Mamata had
demanded ~Rs 660 bn (Rs
220 bn p.a interest
moratorium for 3 years) before
she walked out of UPA
Bihar: Attempts to entice
Nitish Kumar demanded a
special package for Bihar and
was wooed with Rs 340 bn
package in lieu of political
support
Andhra Pradesh: Cabinet has
accorded 'special category'
status for 5 years to
Seemandhra, The package
entails minimum funding of
Rs 500 bn over the next 5
years alongside tax incentives
UP: The SP was wooed with
~Rs 200 bn package in 2012 in
lieu of outside support to the UPA
18 MAR 2014 Thematic Report
23
Election schedule
St at e Seat s 7- Apr 9- Apr 10- Apr 12- Apr 17- Apr 24- Apr 30- Apr 7- May 12- May
Uttar Pradesh 80 10 11 12 14 15 18
Maharashtra 48 10 19 19
Andhra Pradesh 42 17 25
West Bengal 42 4 6 9 6 17
Bihar 40 6 7 7 7 7 6
Tamil Nadu 39 39
Madhya Pradesh 29 9 10 10
Karnataka 28 28
Gujarat 26 26
Rajasthan 25 20 5
Odisha 21 10 11
Kerala 20 20
Assam 14 5 3 6
Jharkhand 14 5 5 4
Punjab 13 13
Chhattisgarh 11 1 3 7
Haryana 10 10
Delhi 7 7
Jammu and Kashmir 6 1 1 1 1 2
Uttarakhand 5 5
Himachal Pradesh 4 4
Arunachal Pradesh 2 2
Goa 2 2
Manipur 2 1
Meghalaya 2 2
Tripura 2 1 1
Tot al 543 6 7 92 7 119 117 89 64 41
Source ECI, Axis Capital *Note: We have not given the election schedule for states with a single Lok Sabha seat
18 MAR 2014 Thematic Report
24
Current Lok Sabha composition
S. No Party/Individual Seats
20 All India Forward Bloc(AIFB) 2
21 Indian Union Muslim League (IUML) 2
22 Jharkhand Mukti Morcha(JMM) 2
23 Jharkhand Vikas Morcha (Prajatantrik)(JVM (P)) 2
24 Revolutionary Socialist Party(RSP) 2
25 Telangana Rashtra Samithi(TRS) 2
26 Yuvajana Sramika Rythu Congress Party(YSR Congress Party) 2
27 All India Majlis- E- Ittehadul Muslimeen(AIMIM) 1
28 All India United Democratic Front(AIUDF) 1
29 Asom Gana Parishad(AGP) 1
30 Bahujan Vikas Aaghadi(BVA) 1
31 Bodoland Peoples Front(BPF) 1
32 Haryana Janhit Congress (BL) (HJC) 1
33 Janata Dal (Secular)(JD(S)) 1
34 Kerala Congress (M) (KC(M)) 1
35 Marumalarchi Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam(MDMK) 1
36 Sikkim Democratic Front(SDF) 1
37 Swabhimani Paksha(SWP) 1
38 Viduthalai Chiruthaigal Katchi(VCK) 1
Total 542
S. No Party/Individual Seats
1 Indian National Congress(INC) 206
2 Bharatiya Janata Party(BJP) 116
3 Samajwadi Party(SP) 22
4 Bahujan Samaj Party(BSP) 21
5 Janata Dal (United) (JD(U)) 20
6 All India Trinamool Congress(AITC) 19
7 Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam(DMK) 18
8 Communist Party of India (Marxist)(CPI(M)) 16
9 Biju Janata Dal(BJD) 14
10 Shiv Sena(SS) 11
11 All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam(AIADMK) 9
12 Independent(Ind.) 9
13 Nationalist Congress Party(NCP) 9
14 Telugu Desam Party(TDP) 6
15 Rashtriya Lok Dal(RLD) 5
16 Communist Party of India(CPI) 4
17 Rashtriya Janata Dal(RJD) 4
18 Shiromani Akali Dal(SAD) 4
19 Jammu and Kashmir National Conference(J&KNC) 3
Outside support to UPA UPA NDA
18 MAR 2014 Thematic Report
Source: ECI
25
Election history
Year Vot er t urnout I NC seat count BJP seat count Government Prime Minist er Part y
1952 46% 364 - INC Jawarlal Nehru INC
1957 55% 371 - INC Jawarlal Nehru INC
1962 55% 361 - INC Jawarlal Nehru INC
1967 61% 283 - INC Indira Gandhi INC
1971 55% 352 - INC Indira Gandhi INC
1977 60% 189 - Lok Dal Moraji Desai Janata Party
1980 60% 351 - INC Indira Gandhi INC
1984 64% 414 2 INC Rajiv Gandhi INC
1989 62% 197 85 National Front^ V.P Singh Janata Dal
1991 57% 244 120 INC+left P.V. Narasimha Rao INC
1996 58% 140 161 United front# Deve Gowda Janata Dal
1998 62% 141 182 NDA Atal Bihari Vajpayee BJP
1999 60% 114 180 NDA Atal Bihari Vajpayee BJP
2004 58% 145 138 UPA + external support Manmohan Singh INC
2009 58% 206 116 UPA + external support Manmohan Singh INC
Source: ECI ^ National front was a coalition of Janata Dal, BJP and Left, # Coalition of Janata Dal, Samajwadi party, Telugu Desam party and Left
18 MAR 2014 Thematic Report
26
Distribution of Lok Sabha seats and ruling parties
States Ruling Party
Andhra Pradesh INC
Arunachal Pradesh INC
Assam INC
Bihar JDU
Chattisgarh BJP
Delhi INC
Goa BJP
Gujarat BJP
Haryana INC
Himachal Pradesh INC
Jammu & Kashmir J&K national conference
Jharkhand Jharkhand Mukti Morcha
Karnataka INC
Kerala INC
Madhya Pradesh BJP
Maharashtra INC
Manipur INC
Meghalaya INC
Mizoram INC
Nagaland Naga Peoples Front
Odisha BJD
Punjab Shiromani Akali Dal
Rajasthan INC
Sikkim Sikkim Democratic Front
Tamil Nadu AIADMK
Tripura CPI (M)
Uttar Pradesh SP
Uttarakhand INC
West Bengal All India Trinamool Congress *543 elected seats and 2 nominated seats
18 MAR 2014 Thematic Report
27
Regional parties have witnessed big traction
Party State Leader Lok Sabha
Seats
Seat share in
state ( %)
Al l iance
Samajwadi Party Uttar Pradesh Mulayam Singh Yadav 22 28 None
Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) Uttar Pradesh Mayawati 21 26 None
Janata Dal (United) Bihar Nitish Kumar 20 50 None
All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) West Bengal Mamata Banerjee 19 45 None
DMK Tamil Nadu M. Karunanidhi 18 46 None
Biju Janata Dal (BJD) Odisha Naveen Patnaik 14 67 Third front
Shiv Sena Maharashtra Uddhav Thackeray 11 23 NDA
AIADMK Tamil Nadu J. Jayalalithaa 9 23 Third front
Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) Tamil Nadu Sharad Pawar 9 19 UPA
Telugu Desam Party (TDP) Andhra Pradesh Chandrababu Naidu 6 14 Third front
YSR Congress Andhra Pradesh Y. S. Jaganmohan Reddy 2 5 None
Telangana Rashtra Samithi Andhra Pradesh K. Chandrashekar Rao 2 5 None
18 MAR 2014 Thematic Report
28
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