A Synthesis of Ideas Related to the Global Warming Controversy

Edited by: Paul Jacob

February 15th 2007
What is Global Warming?
Definition: Global warming is the observed increase in the average temperature of the
earth's atmosphere and oceans in recent decades and its projected continuation into the
future.i

The earth’s average near-surface atmospheric temperature rose 0.6 ± 0.2 °C (1.1 ± 0.4 °F)
in the 20th Century.ii The prevailing scientific opinion on climate change is that “most of
the warming observed over the last 50 years is attributable to human activities.”iii That
being said, without greenhouse gases, the earth would be 33 °C colder than it currently
is,iv which is undesirable to all concerned – climate change activists and global warming
nay-sayers alike.

Though much of the global warming effect is created by the presence of water vapor,
humans also play a part. The increased amounts of carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4),
and Nitrous Oxide (N2O), are the primary causes of the human-induced component of
warming.v They are released by the burning of fossil fuels, land clearing, agriculture, etc.
and lead to an increase in the greenhouse effect.vi The percentage breakdown of each
major human-induced greenhouse gas for the year 2000 is shown in the chart below:vii

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On the other hand, it is important to keep in mind that there are fundamentally non-
human aspects to global warming, including but not limited to: water vapor, which may
account for some 70-95% of global warming related causes, or even more; but that will
be discussed in more depth later in this report.

If Global Warming is True, What’s the Downside?

An increase in global temperatures can in turn cause other changes, including a rising sea
level and changes in the amount and pattern of precipitation.viii These changes may
increase the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events, such as floods, droughts,
heat waves, hurricanes, and tornados.ix Other consequences include higher or lower
agricultural yields, glacial retreat, reduced summer streamflows, species extinctions, and
increases in the ranges of disease vectors.x Warming is expected to affect the number and
magnitude of these events: however, it is difficult to connect particular events to global
warming.xi Although most studies focus on the period up to 2100, warming (and sea level
rise due to thermal expansion) is expected to continue past then, since CO2 has a long
average atmospheric lifetime.xii

Remaining scientific uncertainties include the exact degree of climate change expected in
the future, and especially how changes will vary from region to region across the globe.xiii
A hotly contested political and public debate has yet to be resolved regarding whether

2
anything should be done, and what could be cost-effectively done to reduce or reverse
future warming, or to deal with the expected consequences.xiv

The Bhutan-Himalaya Glaciers (aerial photo shows forming glacial lakes)

What is the Greenhouse Effect?

Definition: The warming of the atmosphere by the trapping of longwave radiation being
radiated to space.xv

The term 'greenhouse effect' originally came from the greenhouses used for gardening,
but it is a misnomer since greenhouses operate differently.xvi A greenhouse is built of
glass; it heats up primarily because the sun warms the ground inside it, which warms the
air near the ground, and this air is prevented from rising and flowing away.xvii The
warming inside a greenhouse thus occurs by suppressing convection and turbulent
mixing.xviii This can be demonstrated by opening a small window near the roof of a
greenhouse: the temperature will drop considerably.xix It has also been demonstrated
experimentally: a "greenhouse" built of rock salt (which is transparent to IR) heats up just
as one built of glass does.xx Greenhouses thus work primarily by preventing convection;
the atmospheric greenhouse effect however reduces radiation loss, not convection.xxi It is
quite common, however, to find sources that make the "greenhouse" analogy.xxii Although
the primary mechanism for warming greenhouses is the prevention of mixing with the
free atmosphere, the radiative properties of the glazing can still be important to
commercial growers.xxiii With the modern development of new plastic surfaces and
glazings for greenhouses, this has permitted construction of greenhouses which
selectively control radiation transmittance in order to better control the growing
environment.xxiv

Concerning the greenhouse effect, the earth naturally absorbs and reflects incoming solar
radiation and emits longer wavelength terrestrial (thermal) radiation back into space.xxv

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On average, the absorbed solar radiation is balanced by the outgoing terrestrial radiation
emitted to space.xxvi A portion of this terrestrial radiation, though, is itself absorbed by
gases in the atmosphere.xxvii The energy from this absorbed terrestrial radiation warms
the earth’s surface and atmosphere, creating what is known as the “natural greenhouse
effect.” xxviii Without the natural heat-trapping properties of these atmospheric gases, the
average surface temperature of the earth would be about 33 °C lower.xxix The following
Diagram shows how the greenhouse effect works.

Greenhouse Gases
Greenhouse gases (GHGs) are gaseous components of the atmosphere that contribute to
the greenhouse effect.xxx Some greenhouse gases occur naturally in the atmosphere,
while others result from human activities.xxxi Naturally occurring greenhouse gases
include water vapor, carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, and ozone.xxxii Certain
human activities, however, add to the levels of most of these naturally occurring
gases.xxxiii

The major natural greenhouse gases are water vapor, which causes about 36-70% of the
greenhouse effect on earth (not including clouds); carbon dioxide, which causes 9-26%;
methane, which causes 4-9%, and ozone, which causes 3-7%.xxxiv It is not possible to
state that a certain gas causes a certain percentage of the greenhouse effect, because the
influences of the various gases are not additive (the higher ends of the range quoted are

4
for the gas alone; the lower ends, for the gas counting overlaps).xxxv Other greenhouse
gases include, but are not limited to: nitrous oxide, sulfur hexafluoride,
hydrofluorocarbons, perfluorocarbons, and chlorofuorocarbons (see IPCC list of
greenhouse gases).xxxvi

The major atmospheric constituents (nitrogen, N2 and oxygen, O2) are not greenhouse
gases.xxxvii This is because homonuclear molecules such as N2 and O2 neither absorb nor
emit infrared radiation as there is no net change to the dipole moment of these
molecules.xxxviii

Two Differing Points of View: CO2 as the most important Greenhouse Gas vs.
Water Vapor as the most important Greenhouse Gas

CO2 is the Most Important Greenhouse Gas

Some scientific sources and environmental agencies choose to neglect the effects of water
vapor as the most prominent greenhouse gas, and instead focus on CO2 as the
predominant greenhouse gas. For instance, The Kyoto Protocol – the amendment to the
UN Global climate treaty – fails to mention water vapor as a concern and instead focuses
on CO2 as the leading emission in the battle against global warming. This seems odd
since the protocol’s objective is to eliminate excess degrees of greenhouse gases in the
atmosphere in order to quell the Global Warming Phenomenon. From the United Nations
Framework Convention on Climate Change website, we can find the following purpose
statement for the Kyoto Protocol ratification to the United Nations Global Climate
Treaty:

The 1997 Kyoto Protocol shares the Convention’s objective, principles and
institutions, but significantly strengthens the Convention by committing Annex I
Parties to individual, legally-binding targets to limit or reduce their greenhouse
gas emissions. Only Parties to the Convention that have also become Parties to the
Protocol (i.e. by ratifying, accepting, approving, or acceding to it) will be bound
by the Protocol’s commitments. 168 countries and one regional economic
integration organization (the EEC) have ratified the Protocol to date. Of these,
35countries and the EEC are required to reduce greenhouse gas emissions below
levels specified for each of them in the treaty. The individual targets for Annex I
Parties are listed in the Kyoto Protocol’s Annex B. These add up to a total cut in
greenhouse-gas emissions of at least 5% from 1990 levels in the commitment
period 2008-2012.xxxix

Now, to be fair, the reason why the UN might disregard the effects of water vapor is that
this greenhouse gas is not man-made. Moreover, some climate analysts say that the
greenhouse gas emissions which are man-made only spur the increase in water vapor; and
that in the end, these greenhouse gases (CO2, CH4, Nitrous Oxide, etc.) are responsible
for the water vapor increase. This is called Water Vapour Feedback, and is claimed to be
a scientific reason for avoiding anthropogenic (human induced) gases all the more. For
example, Lonnie Thompson, a climatologist at Ohio State University who studies ice
cores and glacier retreat, said, “This research indicates that small changes in temperature,

5
driven by greenhouse gases, put more water vapor into the atmosphere, which drives up
the temperature more.”xl

Furthermore, some scientists claim that water vapor balances itself out because it can
reflect both shortwave and longwave radiation from the sun and earth respectively.

This tendency to reflect from both directions would mean that water vapor both prevents
and adds to the problem of Global Warming.

2. Water Vapor is the Most important Greenhouse Gas

Other scientists have a different notion of the importance of water vapor in effecting the
climate. They believe that the water vapor increases which we have experienced in the
past century are the main cause of global warming, and that CO2 effects are more-or-less
negligible when compared with water vapor effects.

One scientist – Vladimir Shaidurov of the Russian Academy of Sciences – has

established a theory that would relate the increase in water vapor to the catastrophic
Tunguska Event on June 30th of 1908, which felled 60 million trees over 2,150 square
kilometers of Russian countryside.xli

The explosion was most likely caused by the airburst of an asteroid or piece of a comet 5
to 10 kilometers (3–6 miles) above the earth's surface.xlii The energy of the blast was later
estimated to be between 10 and 20 megatons of TNT, which would be equivalent to
Castle Bravo – the most powerful nuclear bomb ever detonated by the US.xliii It is still

6
unclear, however, what the actual cause of the event was, and there is much speculation
regarding its origin.

According Shaidurov, the most potent greenhouse gas is water, and it is this compound
on which his study focuses.xliv Shaidurov takes this one step further by claiming that only
small changes in the atmospheric levels of water, in the form of vapor and ice crystals,
can contribute to significant changes in the temperature of the earth’s surface.xlv This far
outweighs the effects of carbon dioxide and other gases released by human activities.xlvi
A 1% rise in water vapour could raise the global average temperature of the earth’s
surface by more than 4 degrees Celsius!xlvii

As such, Shaidurov has concluded that only an enormous natural phenomenon, such as an
asteroid or comet impact or airburst, could seriously disturb atmospheric water levels,
destroying persistent so-called 'silver', or noctilucent, clouds composed of ice crystals in
the high altitude mesosphere (50 to 85 km).xlviii The Tunguska Event was just such an
event, and coincides with the period of time during which global temperatures appear to
have been rising the most steadily - the twentieth century.xlix There are many hypothetical
mechanisms of how this mesosphere catastrophe might have occurred, and future
research is needed to provide a definitive answer.l

A similar perspective points directly to water vapor as the problem, even outside of
catastrophic events. Dr. Tim Patterson – the Professor Geology at Carleston University
in Ottawa and notable scholar according to liberal pro-environment websites like
sourcewatch.org – is an example of a scientist who goes against the grain of popular
views concerning global warming and seems to be lacking in bias. According to the
sourcewatch website:

Patterson has proven to be a difficult target for climate change alarmist activists
for three reasons: 1) He is a well respected internationally known research
scientist with 118 peer-reviewed research publications as of late 2006; 2) He is a
research scientist who goes where the science takes him and not where climate
change alarmist activists want him to go; and 3) he has been exclusively funded
by governmental research agencies such as the Natural Sciences and Engineering
Research Council of Canada (NSERC) as well as the Canadian Foundation for
Climate and Atmospheric Sciences (CFCAS). Much to his chagrin (especially as
he runs a large lab) he has been unable to attract a single dollar from industry or
and public relations firms such as APCO Worldwide.li

In a recent article in TCS Daily, Patterson discussed the water vapor problem, and the
contrary notion, which negates water vapor and focuses on CO2 emissions instead:

The media, special interest groups, and even some government produced literature
all report that CO2 is the most important greenhouse gas. I was at the Canadian
Museum of Nature a few months ago where a traveling display was set up that
clearly, and erroneously I might add, indicated that CO2 was the most important
greenhouse gas. The number one greenhouse gas is actually water vapor. It's

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 something like 98 percent, by volume, of all greenhouse gases. I like the way that
my colleague, Jan Veizer at the University of Ottawa, a world-renowned expert
on the carbon cycle, lists the relative importance of greenhouse gases when he
speaks on the topic. He points out that the number one greenhouse gas is water
vapor, the number two greenhouse gas is water vapor, the number three
greenhouse gas is water vapor, the number four greenhouse gas is water vapor and
CO2 is a distant fifth. Of course, this list is somewhat facetious as there is only
one type of water vapor. However, he lists the relative importance of greenhouse
gases this was to indicate just how insignificant the tiny carbon dioxide cycle is to
the water vapor cycle that it piggybacks on. To give you an example of this
comparison lets consider the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere. In the 19th
Century, when the world was relatively unindustrialized the level of CO2 in the
atmosphere stood at around 285 ppm. By 2003 the level of CO2 in the
atmosphere, primarily the result of industrialization and land use changes, stood at
376 ppm. The resultant influence on climate has been minimal. Computer models
say that this increase in CO2 should have heated the Earth up significantly by this
stage. However, very little warming that can be attributed to CO2 has actually
occurred.lii

Greenhouse Gases measured using Ice Core Samples

In order to back up the position that CO2 and other greenhouse gases have the potential to
effect climate change, scientists have used ice core samples to study weather patterns in
the past.

8
 The most direct method for measuring atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations for
periods before direct sampling is to measure bubbles of air (fluid or gas inclusions)
trapped in the Antarctic or Greenland ice caps.liii The most widely accepted of such
studies come from a variety of Antarctic cores and indicate that atmospheric CO2 levels
were about 260 – 280µL/L immediately before industrial emissions began and did not
vary much from this level during the preceding 10,000 years.liv

Analysis of the air contained in bubbles in the ice can reveal the palaeocomposition of the
atmosphere, in particular CO2 variations.lv There are great problems relating the dating of
the included bubbles to the dating of the ice, since the bubbles only slowly “close off”
after the ice has been deposited. Nonetheless, recent work has tended to show that during
deglaciations CO2-increases lag temperature-increases by 600 +/- 400 years.lvi

Global Warming Potential

Do you remember how we had various different greenhouse gases that contribute to the
greenhouse effect? Well, another aspect to the global warming phenomenon is the fact
that different molecules absorb and reflect more longwave radiation than others. For
instance, methane (CH4) absorbs and reflects longwave radiation much more effectively
than carbon-dioxide (CO2). Therefore, methane creates a greater global warming effect
than carbon-dioxide, which means that it has a higher global warming potential. Global
warming potential (GWP) is a measure of how much a given mass of greenhouse gas is
estimated to contribute to global warming.lvii It is a relative scale which compares the gas
in question to the same mass of carbon dioxide (whose GWP is by definition 1).lviii A
GWP is calculated over a specific time interval and the value of this must be stated
whenever a GWP is quoted or else the value is meaningless.lix

The table for different GWP’s in relation to the most prominent greenhouse gases is
given below:

  Gas Atmospheric 100-year 20-year 500-year

  Lifetime GWPa GWP GWP
Carbon Dioxide (CO2) 50-200 1 1 1
Methane (CH4) b
12±3 21 56 6.5
Nitrous Oxide (N2O) 120 310 280 170
HFC-23 264 11,700 9,100 9,800
HFC-125 32.6 2,800 4,600 920
HFC-134a 14.6 1,300 3,400 420
HFC-143a 48.3 3,800 5,000 1,400
HFC-152a 1.5 140 460 42
HFC-227ea 36.5 2,900 4,300 950
HFC-236fa 209 6,300 5,100 4,700
HFC-4310mee 17.1 1,300 3,000 400
CF4 50,000 6,500 4,400 10,000
C2F6 10,000 9,200 6,200 14,000
C4F10 2,600 7,000 4,800 10,100
C6F14 3,200 7,400 5,000 10,700

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SF6 3,200 23,900 16,300 34,900
Source: IPCC (1996)
a
GWPs used here are calculated over 100 year time horizon
b
The methane GWP includes the direct effects and thoose indirect effects due to the production of
tropospheric ozone and stratospheric water vapor. The indirect effect due to the production of CO 2
is not included.

In order to determine what the effective radiative force of a gas is, the amount of the gas
is multiplied by the GWP. This is how we can calculate the percentage effects of
greenhouse gases with respect to global warming. As such, the main greenhouse gases
are represented by percentage below:lx

Neglecting the effects of water vapor, the distribution of CO2 to the other greenhouse
gases changes from 3% to approximately 70% as shown below:lxi

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Carbon Dioxide
Carbon dioxide is a chemical compound composed of one carbon and two oxygen
atoms.lxii It is often referred to by its formula CO2.lxiii It is present in the earth’s
atmosphere at a low concentration and acts as a greenhouse gas.lxiv In its solid state, it is
called dry ice.lxv It is a major component of the carbon cycle.lxvi

As of January 2007, the earth's atmospheric CO2 concentration is about 0.0383% by

volume (383 ppmv) or 0.0582% by weight.lxvii This represents about 2.996×1012 tonnes,
and is estimated to be 105 ppm (37.77%) above the pre-industrial average.lxviii

Despite its small concentration, CO2 is a very important component of earth's

atmosphere, because it absorbs infrared radiation at wavelengths of 4.26 µm (asymmetric
stretching vibrational mode) and 14.99 µm (bending vibrational mode) and enhances the
greenhouse effect.lxix

The Carbon Cycle

Definition: The organic circulation of carbon from the atmosphere into organisms and
back again.lxx

The cycle is usually thought of as four major reservoirs of carbon interconnected by

pathways of exchange.lxxi The reservoirs are the atmosphere, the terrestrial biosphere
(which usually includes freshwater systems and non-living organic material, such as soil
carbon), the oceans (which includes dissolved inorganic carbon and living and non-living
marine biota), and the sediments (which includes fossil fuels).lxxii The annual movements
of carbon, the carbon exchanges between reservoirs, occur because of various chemical,
physical, geological, and biological processes.lxxiii The ocean contains the largest active
pool of carbon near the surface of the Earth, but the deep ocean part of this pool does not
rapidly exchange with the atmosphere.lxxiv

11
i
“Global Warming,” 14 Feb. 2007 < http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_warming>
ii
Ibid.
iii
Ibid.
iv
J.T. Houghton, et al., Climate Change 2001: A Scientific Basis (New York: Cambridge University Press,
2001) 101.
v
“Global Warming,” 14 Feb. 2007 < http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_warming>
vi
Ibid.
vii
Ibid.
viii
Ibid.
ix
Ibid.
x
Ibid.
xi
Ibid.
xii
Ibid.
xiii
Ibid.
xiv
Ibid.
xv
“Greenhouse Effect,” 14 Feb. 2007 <http://en.mimi.hu/meteorology/longwave_radiation.html>
xvi
“Greenhouse Effect,” 14 Feb. 2007 < http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greenhouse_effect>
xvii
Ibid.
xviii
Ibid.
xix
Ibid.
xx
Ibid.
xxi
Ibid.
xxii
Ibid.
xxiii
Ibid.
xxiv
Ibid.
xxv
J.T. Houghton, et al., Climate Change 2001: A Scientific Basis (New York: Cambridge University Press,
2001) 89-90.
xxvi
Ibid.
xxvii
Ibid.
xxviii
Ibid.
xxix
Ibid.
xxx
“Greenhouse Gas,” 14 Feb. 2007 < http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greenhouse_gas>
xxxi
Ibid.
xxxii
Ibid.
xxxiii
Ibid.
xxxiv
Ibid.
xxxv
Ibid.
xxxvi
Ibid.
xxxvii
Ibid.
xxxviii
Ibid.
xxxix
“Kyoto Protocol,” 14 Feb. 2007 <http://unfccc.int/kyoto_protocol/items/2830.php>
xl
Arianne Appel, “Global Warming Supercharged by Water Vapor,” National Geographic, 10 Nov. 2005,
14 Feb. 2007 <http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2005/11/1110_051110_warming_2.html>

12
Carbon is taken from the atmosphere in several ways:

 When the sun is shining, plants perform photosynthesis to convert carbon dioxide
into carbohydrates, releasing oxygen in the process. This process is most prolific
in relatively new forests where tree growth is still rapid.lxxv
 At the surface of the oceans towards the poles, seawater becomes cooler and more
carbonic acid is formed as CO2 becomes more soluble. This is coupled to the
ocean's thermohaline circulation which transports dense surface water into the
ocean's interior.lxxvi
 In upper ocean areas of high biological productivity, organisms convert reduced
carbon to tissues, or carbonates to hard body parts such as shells and tests. These

xli
“Tunguska Event,” 14 Feb. 2007 < http://www.answers.com/topic/tunguska_event>
xlii
“Tunguska Event,” 14 Feb. 2007 < http://www. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tunguska_event>
xliii
Ibid.
xliv
University of Leicester, “Greenhouse theory smashed by biggest stone,” 14 Mar. 2006, 14 Feb. 2007
<http://www.physorg.com/news11710.html>
xlv
Ibid.
xlvi
Ibid.
xlvii
Ibid.
xlviii
University of Leicester, “Greenhouse theory smashed by biggest stone,” 14 Mar. 2006, 14 Feb. 2007
<http://www.physorg.com/news11710.html>
xlix
Ibid.
l
Ibid.
li
“Tim Patterson,” 14 Feb. 2007 < http://www.sourcewatch.org/index.php?title=Tim_Patterson>
lii
Dr. Tim Patterson, “The Geologic Record and Climate Change,” TCS Daily, 01 Jan. 2005, 14 Feb. 2007
< http://www.tcsdaily.com/article.aspx?id=010405M>
liii
“Carbon Dioxide,” 14 Feb. 2007 < http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carbon_dioxide>
liv
Ibid.
lv
“Ice Core,” 14 Feb. 2007 < http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ice_core>
lvi
Ibid.
lvii
“Global Warming Potential,” 14 Feb. 2007 < http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_warming_potential>
lviii
Ibid.
lix
Ibid.
lx
Monte Hieb, “Water Vapor Rules the Greenhouse System,” 10 Jan. 2003, 14 Feb. 2007
<http://www.geocraft.com/WVFossils/greenhouse_data.html>
lxi
Ibid.
lxii
“Carbon Dioxide,” 14 Feb. 2007 <http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carbon_dioxide>
lxiii
Ibid.
lxiv
Ibid.
lxv
Ibid.
lxvi
Ibid.
lxvii
Ibid.
lxviii
Ibid.
lxix
Ibid.
lxx
“Carbon Cycle,” 14 Feb. 2007 < http://dictionary.reference.com/browse/carbon%20cycle>
lxxi
“Carbon Cycle,” 14 Feb. 2007 <http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carbon_cycle>
lxxii
Ibid.
lxxiii
Ibid.
lxxiv
Ibid.
lxxv
Ibid.
lxxvi
Ibid.

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 are, respectively, oxidized (soft-tissue pump) and redissolved (carbonate pump) at
lower average levels of the ocean than those at which they formed, resulting in a
downward flow of carbon.lxxvii
 The weathering of silicate rock. Carbonic acid reacts with weathered rock to
produce bicarbonate ions. The bicarbonate ions produced are carried to the ocean,
where they are used to make marine carbonates. Unlike disolved CO2 in
equilibrium or tissues which decay, weathering does not move the carbon into a
reservoir from which it can readily return to the atmosphere.lxxviii

lxxvii
Ibid.
lxxviii
Ibid.

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Carbon can be released back into the atmosphere in many different ways:

 Through the respiration performed by plants and animals. This is an exothermic

reaction and it involves the breaking down of glucose (or other organic
molecules) into carbon dioxide and water.lxxix
 Through the decay of animal and plant matter. Fungi and bacteria break down the
carbon compounds in dead animals and plants and convert the carbon to carbon
dioxide if oxygen is present, or methane if not.lxxx
 Through combustion of organic material which oxidizes the carbon it contains,
producing carbon dioxide (and other things, like water vapor). Burning fossil
fuels such as coal, petroleum products, and natural gas releases carbon that has
been stored in the geosphere for millions of years. This is the major reason for the
current rise in atmospheric carbon dioxide levels.lxxxi
 Production of cement. Carbon dioxide is released when limestone (calcium
carbonate) is heated to produce lime (calcium oxide), a component of cement. lxxxii
 At the surface of the oceans where the water becomes warmer, dissolved carbon
dioxide is released back into the atmosphere.lxxxiii
 Volcanic eruptions and metamorphism release gases into the atmosphere. These
gases include water vapor, carbon dioxide and sulfur dioxide. The carbon dioxide
released is roughly equal to the amount removed by silicate weathering; so the
two processes, which are the chemical reverse of each other, sum to roughly zero,
and do not affect the level of atmospheric carbon dioxide on time scales of less
than about 100,000 yr.lxxxiv

Controversy?
The global warming controversy is an ongoing dispute about the effects of humans on
global climate, and about what policies should be implemented to avoid possible
undesirable effects of climate change.lxxxv

The current scientific consensus on climate change is that recent warming indicates a
fairly stable long-term trend, that the trend is largely human-caused, and that serious
damage may result if steps are not taken to halt the trend.lxxxvi Mainstream scientific
organizations worldwide (Royal Society, American Geophysical Union, Joint Science
Academies, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, American Meteorological
Society, and American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)) concur
with the assessment that “most of the observed warming over the last 50 years is likely to
have been due to the human-caused increase in greenhouse gas concentrations.”lxxxvii

lxxix
Ibid.
lxxx
Ibid.
lxxxi
Ibid.
lxxxii
Ibid.
lxxxiii
Ibid.
lxxxiv
Ibid.
lxxxv
“Global Warming Controversy,” 14 Feb. 2007
<http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_warming_controversy>
lxxxvi
Ibid.
lxxxvii
Ibid.

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However, there are also a small but vocal number of scientists in climate and climate-
related fields that disagree with the consensus view.lxxxviii

Three is considerable opposition from some members of the political and business
communities both to the conclusion that humans are causing climate change and to the
need to take action to reduce human effects on climate.lxxxix Chiefly, opposition arises
because of claims that these actions would cause enormous expense and disruption to the
current geopolitical and economic situation, with no obvious recognizable short-term
benefits.xc This is a public and political debate.xci While the climate projections involved
in the discussion are constrained by basic physical principles (though they depend on
assumptions about emissions), political and economic effects of both global warming and
mitigation are more difficult to quantify.xcii As an example, in asking whether the costs of
reducing fossil fuel dependency outweigh the costs of not taking action, one is confronted
by the fact that it is difficult to anticipate social or technological changes that affect such
costs.xciii

Assertions by Proponents of Global Warming Theory

Supporters of the anthropogenic global warming hypothesis assert that:

 The fact that carbon dioxide absorbs and emits IR radiation has been known for
over a century.xciv
 Gas bubbles trapped in ice cores give us a detailed record of atmospheric
chemistry and temperature back more than eight hundred thousand years, with the
temperature record confirmed by other geologic evidence. This record shows a
correlation between atmospheric carbon dioxide and temperature.xcv
 The recent rise in carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases is greater than any
in hundreds of thousands of years and this is human-caused, as shown by the
isotopic signature of CO2 from fossil fuels.xcvi
 The historical temperature record shows a rise of 0.4–0.8 °C over the last 100
years.xcvii
 The current warmth is unusual in the past 1000.xcviii
 Climate change attribution studies, using both models and observations, find that
the warming of the last 50 years is likely caused by human activity; natural
variability (including solar variation) alone cannot explain the recent change.xcix
 Climate models can reproduce the observed trend only when greenhouse gas
forcing is included.c
lxxxviii
Ibid.
lxxxix
Ibid.
xc
Ibid.
xci
Ibid.
xcii
Ibid.
xciii
Ibid.
xciv
Ibid.
xcv
Ibid.
xcvi
Ibid.
xcvii
Ibid.
xcviii
Ibid.
xcix
Ibid.

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  The IPCC reports correctly summarize the state of climate science.ci
 Humankind is performing a great geophysical experiment, and if it turns out badly
—however that is defined—we cannot undo it. We cannot even abruptly turn it
off. Too many of the things we are doing now have long-term ramifications for
centuries to come.cii
 Climate models predict more warming, sea level rise, more frequent and severe
storms, drought and heat waves, spread of tropical diseases, and other climactic
effects in the future.ciii
 The current warming trend will accelerate when melting ice exposes more dark
sea and land that will reflect less sunlight; and when the tundra thaws and releases
large quantities of trapped greenhouse gases.civ
 Atlantic hurricane trends have been recently linked to climate change.cv
 The Precautionary principle requires that action should be taken now to prevent or
mitigate warming.cvi

Proponents of the anthropogenic global warming hypothesis tend to support the IPCC
position, and thus represent the scientific consensus (though with considerable
differences over details, and especially over what action should be taken). cvii

Assertions by Opponents of Global Warming Theory

Some of the assertions made in opposition to the hypothesis of anthropogenic global
warming include:

 The field of climate science has been a “scientific backwater” because most of the
bright students went into physics, math, or computer science. To improve the
quality of climate science, the quality of the basic science underlying it must be
improved.cviii
 The relationship between historic temperatures and CO2 levels, based on ice-core
samples, shows that carbon dioxide levels rise after global temperatures rise.cix
 IPCC draws firm conclusions unjustified by the science, especially given the
acknowledged weakness of cloud physics in the climate models.cx
 The influential "Hockey Stick" study by Mann has been shown to contain errors.cxi
 Correlation does not imply causation, so just because temperatures have risen
overall since the beginning of the Industrial Revolution doesn’t necessarily mean
that Industrialization has caused the change in temperature.cxii

c
Ibid.
ci
Ibid.
cii
Ibid.
ciii
Ibid.
civ
Ibid.
cv
Ibid.
cvi
Ibid.
cvii
Ibid.
cviii
Ibid.
cix
Ibid.
cx
Ibid.
cxi
Ibid.

17
  The period since the beginning of the Industrial Revolution has produced “urban
heat islands” that could be skewing temperature measurements that indicate the
recent warming.cxiii
 Using "consensus" as evidence is an appeal to the majority argument rather than
scientific discussion. Some have proposed that, because the issue has become so
politicized, climatologists who disagree with the consensus may be afraid to speak
out for fear of losing their positions or funding.cxiv
 Climate models will not be able to predict the future climate until they can predict
solar and volcanic activity, changes in sea temperature, and changes to cosmic ray
levels that make the low level clouds that cool the earth, and take into account
other recently discovered feedback mechanisms.cxv
 Estimates at CO2’s effectiveness as a greenhouse gas vary, but are generally
around 10-100 times lower than water weight for weight, leaving a “net”
greenhouse effect of man-made CO2 emissions at less than 1%.cxvi
 Climate science cannot make definitive predictions yet, since computer models
used to make these predictions are still evolving and do not yet take into account
recently discovered feedback mechanisms.cxvii
 Global temperatures are directly related to such factors as sunspot activity (an 11-
year cycle).cxviii
 Global warming is largely a result of reduced low-altitude cloud cover from
reduced Galactic cosmic rays (GCRs). It is similar in concept to the Wilson cloud
chamber but on a global scale, where earth's atmosphere acts as the cloud
chamber.cxix
 The concern about global warming is analogous to the concern about global
cooling in the 1970s. The concern about global cooling was unnecessarily
alarmist. Therefore, the concern about global warming is likely to be equally
alarmist.cxx
 Many opponents also point to the Medieval warm period, which lasted from the
10th to the 14th Century, and which indicated an above-average temperature for at
least Western Europe, and possibly the whole earth. This period was followed by
the Little Ice Age, which lasted until the 19th Century, when the earth began to
heat up again.cxxi
 Satellite temperature records show less warming than surface land and sea
records.cxxii
 Climatic changes equal to or even more severe than those on Earth are also
happening on other bodies within this solar system, including Mars, Jupiter, Pluto
cxii
Ibid.
cxiii
Ibid.
cxiv
Ibid.
cxv
Ibid.
cxvi
Ibid.
cxvii
Ibid.
cxviii
Ibid.
cxix
Ibid.
cxx
Ibid.
cxxi
Ibid.
cxxii
Ibid.

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 and Triton.cxxiii

Reasons to take no action against Global Warming

Those who see global warming as an incorrect hypothesis are against preventative global
warming measures for a number of reasons, as outlined below:

 There is a distinct correlation between GDP growth and greenhouse-gas

emissions. If this correlation is assumed to be a case of causation, a cutback in
emissions might lead to a decrease in the rate of GDP growth. cxxiv
 Future scientific advances or engineering projects will remedy the problem before
it becomes serious, and will do it for less money.cxxv
 A small amount of global warming would be benign or even beneficial, as
increased carbon dioxide would benefit plant life, thus potentially becoming
profitable for agriculture world-wide.cxxvi

Do Cows Cause Global Warming?

According to a recent UN Study titled “Livestock’s Long Shadow,” the evidence points
to farms, particularly ones that breed cattle and pigs, as the breeding grounds for global
warming. According to the report, some 18% of CO2 emissions are related to livestock,
37% of Methane emissions are related to livestock, and 65% of Nitrous Oxide emissions
are related to livestock!cxxvii

cxxiii
Ibid.
cxxiv
Ibid.
cxxv
Ibid.
cxxvi
Ibid.
cxxvii
Vincent Castel, et al., Livestock’s Long Shadow: Environmental Issues and Opinions (Rome: Food and
Agricultural Organization of the United Nations, 2006) p. xxi.

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