Annual Average Gold Prices,

trend model
USD
1900
1933
1934
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011

$20.67
$20.67
$35.00
$35.00
$38.94
$40.76
$36.07
$41.17
$59.00
$97.84
$158.96
$160.91
$124.71
$147.78
$193.39
$304.83
$614.61
$459.26
$375.28
$423.61
$360.50
$317.18
$367.72
$446.28
$436.79
$380.74
$383.32
$362.10
$343.86
$360.00
$384.12
$384.05
$387.82
$330.98
$294.12
$278.55
$279.10
$272.67
$309.66
$362.91
$409.17
$444.47
$603.95
$695.39
$871.65
$972.90
$1,224.52
$1,482.17

128.95
138.35
147.74
157.14
166.53
175.93
185.32
194.72
204.11
213.51
222.90
232.30
241.69
251.09
260.48
269.88
279.28
288.67
298.07
307.46
316.86
326.25
335.65
345.04
354.44
363.83
373.23
382.62
392.02
401.41
410.81
420.20
429.60
439.00
448.39
457.79
467.18
476.58
485.97
495.37
504.76
514.16
523.55
532.95

residual res model

cos function

-90.01
-97.59
-111.67
-115.97
-107.53
-78.09
-26.36
-33.81
-79.40
-65.73
-29.51
72.53
372.92
208.17
114.80
153.73
81.22
28.51
69.65
138.82
119.93
54.49
47.67
17.06
-10.58
-3.83
10.89
1.43
-4.20
-70.43
-116.69
-141.65
-150.50
-166.33
-138.73
-94.88
-58.01
-32.10
117.98

-43.42
-65.70
-84.51
-98.70
-107.37
-109.98
-106.38
-96.78
-81.79
-62.34
-39.63
-15.08
9.78
33.42
54.36
71.29
83.17
89.26
89.18
82.93
70.90
53.84
32.81
9.13
-15.75
-40.27
-62.91
-82.26
-97.12
-106.56
-109.99
-107.21
-98.38
-84.06
-65.14
-42.79
-18.39
6.52
30.41
51.78
69.32
81.92
88.80
89.55

final
cos function

85.53
72.65
63.23
58.44
59.17
65.95
78.94
97.93
122.32
151.17
183.27
217.22
251.48
284.51
314.84
341.17
362.45
377.93
387.24
390.39
387.76
380.09
368.46
354.17
338.68
323.56
310.32
300.36
294.90
294.86
300.82
312.99
331.22
354.93
383.25
415.00
448.79
483.10
516.38
547.15
574.08
596.07
612.36
622.50

stochastic1
random

44.61
-116.42
-188.30
-145.04
183.37
18.71
-105.25
-215.35
-142.57
44.09
129.33
-85.39
-78.54
-55.19
23.71
-16.03
133.55
84.85
-271.91
-47.51
-34.50
154.83
-190.40
-104.80
-97.22
181.28
-27.02
-105.59
-78.28
19.72
-135.50
-133.27
-28.26
-181.10
55.78
125.34
-17.72
-83.27
98.51
-8.54
45.55
60.80
3.15
-160.24

2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
2037
2038

$1,690.00

542.34
551.74
561.13
570.53
579.92
589.32
598.72
608.11
617.51
626.90
636.30
645.69
655.09
664.48
673.88
683.27
692.67
702.06
711.46
720.85
730.25
739.64
749.04
758.44
767.83
777.23
786.62

84.10
72.81
56.36
35.79
12.37
-12.44
-37.09
-60.07
-79.93
-95.44
-105.64
-109.89
-107.93
-99.89
-86.25
-67.88
-45.90
-21.69
3.24
27.35
49.14
67.25
80.56
88.24
89.81
85.17
74.62

626.45
624.54
617.49
606.32
592.30
576.88
561.62
548.04
537.58
531.46
530.66
535.80
547.15
564.59
587.62
615.40
646.77
680.37
714.70
748.20
779.39
806.90
829.60
846.67
857.64
862.40
861.24

32.75
90.34
1.65
-54.13
-68.36
-55.72
-77.56
-23.94
49.17
91.32
143.79
62.79
-45.07
305.52
17.65
-94.02
-104.44
-173.23
-138.16
174.22
-79.33
70.89
-46.03
28.51
-142.44
67.05
27.79

final
stochastic1
random

38.94
40.76
36.07
41.17
59.00
97.84
158.96
160.91
124.71
147.78
193.39
304.83
614.61
459.26
375.28
423.61
360.50
317.18
367.72
446.28
436.79
380.74
383.32
362.10
343.86
360.00
384.12
384.05
387.82
330.98
294.12
278.55
279.10
272.67
309.66
362.91
409.17
444.47
603.95
486.83
550.31
574.96
526.71
372.70

res2 difference

-7.58
-14.09
-4.30
8.43
29.44
51.72
-7.45
-45.60
13.67
36.21
102.04
300.38
-164.75
-93.38
38.93
-72.51
-52.72
41.14
69.16
-18.89
-65.45
-6.82
-30.62
-27.64
6.74
14.72
-9.47
-5.63
-66.24
-46.26
-24.97
-8.85
-15.83
27.59
43.85
36.87
25.91
150.08

final
stochastic1
random

151.54
-161.22
119.17
-120.33
-139.52
-82.15
-59.54
89.12
69.45
177.90
-116.16
-112.18
-103.80
-16.34
39.90
91.23
74.29
40.16
201.00
-24.93
10.88
-242.73
68.28
123.77
147.13
-9.61
56.52
-53.29
250.94
-133.43
155.13
75.06
49.33
69.48
91.05
-91.63
-82.11
13.31
208.93
-13.02
-136.29
19.46
19.29
-55.40

38.94
40.76
36.07
41.17
59.00
97.84
158.96
160.91
124.71
147.78
193.39
304.83
614.61
459.26
375.28
423.61
360.50
317.18
367.72
446.28
436.79
380.74
383.32
362.10
343.86
360.00
384.12
384.05
387.82
330.98
294.12
278.55
279.10
272.67
309.66
362.91
409.17
444.47
603.95
590.93
454.63
474.09
493.38
437.99

$1,800.00

$1,600.00

$1,400.00

$1,200.00

$1,000.00

Gold Price
$800.00

$600.00

$400.00

$400.00

575.10
642.08
562.78
516.40
511.57
533.60
521.16
584.17
666.68
718.22
780.09
708.48
610.01
970.00
691.52
589.25
588.23
528.83
573.30
895.08
650.92
810.53
703.01
786.94
625.39
844.27
814.41

-83.64
-15.22
-201.09
-21.39
-125.52
-19.01
-159.20
-72.49
110.40
-59.51
8.84
9.08
53.18
29.88
37.70
-208.22
12.01
138.79
-23.02
21.24
65.77
49.85
73.14
-9.85
226.41
-121.10
-10.68

354.34
339.12
138.03
116.64
-8.88
-27.89
-187.09
-259.58
-149.18
-208.69
-199.85
-190.77
-137.60
-107.72
-70.02
-278.23
-266.23
-127.44
-150.45
-129.21
-63.44
-13.58
59.56
49.71
276.12
155.01
144.34

$200.00

$1,800.00

$1,600.00

$1,400.00

$1,200.00

$1,000.00
Gold Price

$800.00

$600.00

$400.00

$200.00

$0.00

$2,000.00

$1,500.00

$1,000.00

$1,000.00

Gold Price

$500.00

$0.00

-$500.00

400.00

for stochastic 1
mean
std

-5.48
111.52

300.00

for stochastic 2
mean
std

5.47
72.62

200.00

Residual 100.00

For cos model:

period
amp

0.25
100.00
0.00

1960
-100.00

-200.00

$1,800.00

$1,600.00

$1,400.00

$1,200.00

$1,000.00

$800.00

$600.00

$400.00

1970

$400.00

$200.00

$0.00
1880

1900

1920

1940

1960

1980

2000

Year

$1,800.00

$1,600.00

$1,400.00

$1,200.00

$1,000.00

$800.00

$600.00

$400.00

$200.00

$0.00
1880

1900

1920

1940

1960

1980
Year

$2,000.00

$1,500.00

$1,000.00

2000

$1,000.00

$500.00

$0.00
1880

-$500.00

1900

1920

1940

1960

1980

Year

2000

1980

1990

2000

2010

Year

Gold Data
Modeled Gold, deterministic Residual

2020

2040

2060

Gold Data
Modeled Gold, Stochastic1

2000

2020

2040

2060

Gold Data
Modeled gold, Stochastic 2

2000

2020

2040

2060

$800.00

y = 9.3953x

$700.00

$600.00

$500.00

$400.00

$300.00

$200.00

$100.00

$0.00

1960

1970

1980

1990

y = 9.3953x - 18361

2000

2010

2020

2030