SURPRISE FINDINGS WHICH NO ONE ELSE CAN PREDICT Pg. 1 of 12 WE ARE ALWAYS FIRST AND REMAIN FIRST IN ACCURACY WE ARE HAVING THE ARTS OF WINNING ELECTIONS TODAYS CHANAKYA 12 th May 2014 Loksabha Elections 2014 Exit & Post Poll Pages - 12
Modi wave creates history BJP set to break all its records Congress falls to its lowest tally ever
Methodology : Todays Chanakya carried out an Exit Poll on the day of polling in respective state in each phase & post poll study in each phase (post poll for 12 May polling phase is not included in this analysis).
The entire analysis is based on our Seven Layer Spectrum Model, designed especially for Indian Election. The survey covers 22 states including Delhi & one union territory. Stratified sampling technique was primarily used to make homogenous subgroups. With the help of systematic random sampling, all possible sampling error was reduced to obtain a homogenous representative sample. Data were collected to the profile of all adults age 18 + including by age, Sex, Social class, household, work status, literacy level, etc. Proper weights were assigned so that collected data reflects the socio economic conditions of that state / region. The margin of sampling error is 3.6 percentage points with 95% confidence level. Respondents of Orissa & Andhra Pradesh were simultaneously asked for both assembly elections & Lok Sabha elections. Total respondent sample size was 38984.
TODAYS CHANAKYA (A Political Research Organisation) New Delhi, India
SURPRISE FINDINGS WHICH NO ONE ELSE CAN PREDICT Pg. 2 of 12 WE ARE ALWAYS FIRST AND REMAIN FIRST IN ACCURACY WE ARE HAVING THE ARTS OF WINNING ELECTIONS TODAYS CHANAKYA Loksabha Elections 2014 Exit & Post Poll
Chhattisgarh (11 Seats) Party Vote 2014 (Forecast) Seat 2014 (Forecast) BJP 44% 3% 10 2 (Plus / Minus 2) Seats Congress 35% 3% 1 1 (Plus / Minus 1) Seats AAP 5% 2% - Others 16% 3% -
Important: 1. Please dont forget to put Seat Range (Plus / Minus) 2. The seat tally after using the (Plus / Minus) range will neither exceed the total seats in the respective state nor will be less than zero. 3. Please note that the real numbers of seats in each state & nationwide projection should not be split in any range because our real number of seats is epicenter of our actual projection. Please display the figures as we have mentioned along with the plus/minus range.
TODAYS CHANAKYA (A Political Research Organisation) New Delhi, India
SURPRISE FINDINGS WHICH NO ONE ELSE CAN PREDICT Pg. 3 of 12 WE ARE ALWAYS FIRST AND REMAIN FIRST IN ACCURACY WE ARE HAVING THE ARTS OF WINNING ELECTIONS TODAYS CHANAKYA Loksabha Elections 2014 Exit & Post Poll
Delhi (7 Seats) Party Vote 2014 (Forecast) Seat 2014 (Forecast) BJP 39% 3% 7 1 (Plus / Minus 1) Seats AAP 31% 3% 0 1 (Plus / Minus 1) Seats Congress 20% 3% - Others 10% 3% -
Goa (2 Seats) Party Vote 2014 (Forecast) Seat 2014 (Forecast) BJP 47% 3% 2 1 (Plus / Minus 1) Seats Congress 38% 3% 0 1 (Plus / Minus 1) Seats Others 15% 3% -
Important: 1. Please dont forget to put Seat Range (Plus / Minus) 2. The seat tally after using the (Plus / Minus) range will neither exceed the total seats in the respective state nor will be less than zero. 3. Please note that the real numbers of seats in each state & nationwide projection should not be split in any range because our real number of seats is epicenter of our actual projection. Please display the figures as we have mentioned along with the plus/minus range.
TODAYS CHANAKYA (A Political Research Organisation) New Delhi, India
SURPRISE FINDINGS WHICH NO ONE ELSE CAN PREDICT Pg. 4 of 12 WE ARE ALWAYS FIRST AND REMAIN FIRST IN ACCURACY WE ARE HAVING THE ARTS OF WINNING ELECTIONS TODAYS CHANAKYA Loksabha Elections 2014 Exit & Post Poll
Gujarat (26 Seats) Party Vote 2014 (Forecast) Seat 2014 (Forecast) BJP 45% 3% 26 3 (Plus / Minus 3) Seats Congress 34% 3% 0 3 (Plus / Minus 3) Seats AAP 6% 2% - Others 15% 3% -
Haryana (10 Seats) Party Vote 2014 (Forecast) Seat 2014 (Forecast) BJP+ 35% 3% 8 2 (Plus / Minus 2) Seats Congress 26% 3% 1 1 (Plus / Minus 1) Seats INLD 21% 3% 1 1 (Plus / Minus 1) Seats AAP 9% 2% - Others 9% 3% -
Important: 1. Please dont forget to put Seat Range (Plus / Minus) 2. The seat tally after using the (Plus / Minus) range will neither exceed the total seats in the respective state nor will be less than zero. 3. Please note that the real numbers of seats in each state & nationwide projection should not be split in any range because our real number of seats is epicenter of our actual projection. Please display the figures as we have mentioned along with the plus/minus range.
TODAYS CHANAKYA (A Political Research Organisation) New Delhi, India
SURPRISE FINDINGS WHICH NO ONE ELSE CAN PREDICT Pg. 5 of 12 WE ARE ALWAYS FIRST AND REMAIN FIRST IN ACCURACY WE ARE HAVING THE ARTS OF WINNING ELECTIONS TODAYS CHANAKYA Loksabha Elections 2014 Exit & Post Poll
Himachal (4 Seats) Party Vote 2014 (Forecast) Seat 2014 (Forecast) BJP 48% 3% 4 1 (Plus / Minus 1) Seats Congress 37% 3% 0 1 (Plus / Minus 1) Seats AAP 4% 2% - Others 11% 3% -
Important: 1. Please dont forget to put Seat Range (Plus / Minus) 2. The seat tally after using the (Plus / Minus) range will neither exceed the total seats in the respective state nor will be less than zero. 3. Please note that the real numbers of seats in each state & nationwide projection should not be split in any range because our real number of seats is epicenter of our actual projection. Please display the figures as we have mentioned along with the plus/minus range.
TODAYS CHANAKYA (A Political Research Organisation) New Delhi, India
SURPRISE FINDINGS WHICH NO ONE ELSE CAN PREDICT Pg. 6 of 12 WE ARE ALWAYS FIRST AND REMAIN FIRST IN ACCURACY WE ARE HAVING THE ARTS OF WINNING ELECTIONS TODAYS CHANAKYA Loksabha Elections 2014 Exit & Post Poll
Madhya Pradesh (29 Seats) Party Vote 2014 (Forecast) Seat 2014 (Forecast) BJP 47% 3% 26 3 (Plus / Minus 3) Seats Congress 35% 3% 3 2 (Plus / Minus 2) Seats Others 18% 3% -
Important: 1. Please dont forget to put Seat Range (Plus / Minus) 2. The seat tally after using the (Plus / Minus) range will neither exceed the total seats in the respective state nor will be less than zero. 3. Please note that the real numbers of seats in each state & nationwide projection should not be split in any range because our real number of seats is epicenter of our actual projection. Please display the figures as we have mentioned along with the plus/minus range.
TODAYS CHANAKYA (A Political Research Organisation) New Delhi, India
SURPRISE FINDINGS WHICH NO ONE ELSE CAN PREDICT Pg. 7 of 12 WE ARE ALWAYS FIRST AND REMAIN FIRST IN ACCURACY WE ARE HAVING THE ARTS OF WINNING ELECTIONS TODAYS CHANAKYA Loksabha Elections 2014 Exit & Post Poll
Rajasthan (25 Seats) Party Vote 2014 (Forecast) Seat 2014 (Forecast) BJP 47% 3% 25 2 (Plus / Minus 2) Seats Congress 35% 3% 0 2 (Plus / Minus 2) Seats AAP 4% 2% - Others 14% 3% -
Tamil Nadu (39 Seats) Party Vote 2014 (Forecast) Seat 2014 (Forecast) AIADMK 33% 3% 27 4 (Plus / Minus 4) Seats DMK 25% 3% 5 2 (Plus / Minus 2) Seats BJP+ 27% 3% 7 3 (Plus / Minus 3) Seats Congress 8% 2% - Others 7% 3% -
Important: 1. Please dont forget to put Seat Range (Plus / Minus) 2. The seat tally after using the (Plus / Minus) range will neither exceed the total seats in the respective state nor will be less than zero. 3. Please note that the real numbers of seats in each state & nationwide projection should not be split in any range because our real number of seats is epicenter of our actual projection. Please display the figures as we have mentioned along with the plus/minus range.
TODAYS CHANAKYA (A Political Research Organisation) New Delhi, India
SURPRISE FINDINGS WHICH NO ONE ELSE CAN PREDICT Pg. 8 of 12 WE ARE ALWAYS FIRST AND REMAIN FIRST IN ACCURACY WE ARE HAVING THE ARTS OF WINNING ELECTIONS TODAYS CHANAKYA Loksabha Elections 2014 Exit & Post Poll
Uttarakhand (5 Seats) Party Vote 2014 (Forecast) Seat 2014 (Forecast) BJP 49% 3% 5 1 (Plus / Minus 1) Seats Congress 37% 3% 0 1 (Plus / Minus 1) Seats Others 14% 3% -
Assam (14 seats) Party Vote 2014 (Forecast) Seat 2014 (Forecast) BJP 43% 3% 8 3 (Plus / Minus 3) Seats Congress 37% 3% 4 2 (Plus / Minus 2) Seats Others 20% 3% 2 1 (Plus / Minus 1) Seats
Important: 1. Please dont forget to put Seat Range (Plus / Minus) 2. The seat tally after using the (Plus / Minus) range will neither exceed the total seats in the respective state nor will be less than zero. 3. Please note that the real numbers of seats in each state & nationwide projection should not be split in any range because our real number of seats is epicenter of our actual projection. Please display the figures as we have mentioned along with the plus/minus range.
TODAYS CHANAKYA (A Political Research Organisation) New Delhi, India
SURPRISE FINDINGS WHICH NO ONE ELSE CAN PREDICT Pg. 9 of 12 WE ARE ALWAYS FIRST AND REMAIN FIRST IN ACCURACY WE ARE HAVING THE ARTS OF WINNING ELECTIONS TODAYS CHANAKYA Loksabha Elections 2014 Exit & Post Poll
West Bengal (42 Seats) Party Vote 2014 (Forecast) Seat 2014 (Forecast) AITC 34% 3% 25 4 (Plus / Minus 4) Seats BJP 24% 3% 8 4 (Plus / Minus 4) Seats CPI / CPM 21% 3% 4 2 (Plus / Minus 2) Seats Congress 15% 3% 5 2 (Plus / Minus 2) Seats Others 6% 2% -
Bihar (40 Seats) Party Vote 2014 (Forecast) Seat 2014 (Forecast) BJP+ 38% 3% 31 4 (Plus / Minus 4) Seats RJD + Congress 29% 3% 9 2 (Plus / Minus 2) Seats JDU 19% 3% 0 2 (Plus / Minus 2) Seats AAP 4% 2% - Others 10% 3% -
Important: 1. Please dont forget to put Seat Range (Plus / Minus) 2. The seat tally after using the (Plus / Minus) range will neither exceed the total seats in the respective state nor will be less than zero. 3. Please note that the real numbers of seats in each state & nationwide projection should not be split in any range because our real number of seats is epicenter of our actual projection. Please display the figures as we have mentioned along with the plus/minus range.
TODAYS CHANAKYA (A Political Research Organisation) New Delhi, India
SURPRISE FINDINGS WHICH NO ONE ELSE CAN PREDICT Pg. 10 of 12 WE ARE ALWAYS FIRST AND REMAIN FIRST IN ACCURACY WE ARE HAVING THE ARTS OF WINNING ELECTIONS TODAYS CHANAKYA Loksabha Elections 2014 Exit & Post Poll
Karnataka (28 Seats) Party Vote 2014 (Forecast) Seat 2014 (Forecast) BJP 42% 3% 20 3 (Plus / Minus 3) Seats Congress 35% 3% 6 2 (Plus / Minus 2) Seats JDS 15% 3% 2 1 (Plus / Minus 1) Seats Others 8% 2% -
Important: 1. Please dont forget to put Seat Range (Plus / Minus) 2. The seat tally after using the (Plus / Minus) range will neither exceed the total seats in the respective state nor will be less than zero. 3. Please note that the real numbers of seats in each state & nationwide projection should not be split in any range because our real number of seats is epicenter of our actual projection. Please display the figures as we have mentioned along with the plus/minus range.
TODAYS CHANAKYA (A Political Research Organisation) New Delhi, India
SURPRISE FINDINGS WHICH NO ONE ELSE CAN PREDICT Pg. 11 of 12 WE ARE ALWAYS FIRST AND REMAIN FIRST IN ACCURACY WE ARE HAVING THE ARTS OF WINNING ELECTIONS TODAYS CHANAKYA Loksabha Elections 2014 Exit & Post Poll
Odisha (21 Seats) Party Vote 2014 (Forecast) Seat 2014 (Forecast) BJD 38% 3% 12 2 (Plus / Minus 2) Seats BJP 35% 3% 8 2 (Plus / Minus 2) Seats Congress 20% 3% 1 1 (Plus / Minus 1) Seats Others 7% 2% -
Important: 1. Please dont forget to put Seat Range (Plus / Minus) 2. The seat tally after using the (Plus / Minus) range will neither exceed the total seats in the respective state nor will be less than zero. 3. Please note that the real numbers of seats in each state & nationwide projection should not be split in any range because our real number of seats is epicenter of our actual projection. Please display the figures as we have mentioned along with the plus/minus range.
TODAYS CHANAKYA (A Political Research Organisation) New Delhi, India
SURPRISE FINDINGS WHICH NO ONE ELSE CAN PREDICT Pg. 12 of 12 WE ARE ALWAYS FIRST AND REMAIN FIRST IN ACCURACY WE ARE HAVING THE ARTS OF WINNING ELECTIONS TODAYS CHANAKYA Loksabha Elections 2014 Exit & Post Poll
Important: 1. Please dont forget to put Seat Range (Plus / Minus) 2. The seat tally after using the (Plus / Minus) range will neither exceed the total seats in the respective state nor will be less than zero. 3. Please note that the real numbers of seats in each state & nationwide projection should not be split in any range because our real number of seats is epicenter of our actual projection. Please display the figures as we have mentioned along with the plus/minus range.