Avoiding a 2017 Lockout:

An Analytical Research of the NBA and the 2011 Collective Bargaining Agreement
Author: Hayden Coombs; Mentors: Lane Williams (Ph.D.), Marc Skinner (Ph.D.), Peter Novak (J.D.)
Background:
Te collective bargaining agreement (CBA) of the National Basketball
Association (NBA) is the contract between the NBA (the commissioner and the
30 team owners) and the National Basketball Players Association (NBPA) that
dictates the rules of player contracts, trades, revenue distribution, the NBA Draf,
and the salary cap, among other things.
Due to an inability to negotiate and come to reasonable terms, since 1995 the
NBA has gone through four lockouts. Tese lockouts resulted in work stoppages
ranging from as little as a few hours and up to as long as six months. During a
lockout, neither players nor team employees get paid, franchise owners make
no money of their NBA investments, and no basketball is played, which afects
the fans. Tere is almost 100% certainty that the NBA will go through another
lockout in 2017 when either side can opt-out of the current contract.
Purpose:
To provide a mutually benefcial grounds for the NBA and NBPA to discuss
labor negotiations in 2017.
To inform the casual NBA fan of the issues facing the NBA and its future
(see website nbabusiness.com).
To answer the question, Should either side opt-out of the current CBA in
2017, how can the NBA and NBPA work together to avoid a lockout?
What is the CBA?:
Te CBA is a document that governs the distribution of basketball related
income between the league and its players. Franchise owners attempt to limit
the amount of income earned by players to a specifc percentage that constitutes
a salary cap. Because the actual monetary amount of income tends to rise (or at
least vary) year by year, an agreement that settles on a percentage rather than a
specifc amount is usually preferable to both parties.
During the negotiation of this agreement, a representative of the NBPA tries to
get concessions or benefts from the NBA while attempting to raise or keep player
income at the same percentages. When the NBA and NBPA cannot come to an
agreement quickly, it will ofen result in a lockout, which has the possibility of
delaying or canceling an entire season of basketball.
Methods:
Primary administration of a Qualtrics survey to 100 professional basketball
journalists. Tis convenience survey returned a 61% response rate (61). Te
provided answers clearly illustrated the need to proceed with development of
this project.
A second administration of the survey was conducted and sent to 900
randomly selected BYU-Idaho students. Over the course of seven days, the
survey returned 171results, a 19% response rate. Of the 171 responses, 12 were
rejected based of qualifying answers, which resulted in 159 total responses. Te
results of this random survey illustrated the need for a second part of my study:
Making the business side of the NBA more accessible and understandable for
the average NBA fan.
Survey Demographics:
Of 159 respondents-
62% reported that they spend at least one hour each day consuming NBA
media. Tis includes watching NBA games, reading about the NBA, and
studying the NBA.
Respondents were 87% male (138).
Te vast majority of respondents ft into the 18-24 age group (74) or the 25-34
age group (74), meaning that 93% of respondents were 18-34 years old.
Te BYU-Idaho student body features students from all over the United
States, as well as many from other countries. However, even though this was an
anonymous survey, we can make a fairly certain assumption that the majority of
respondents were Caucasian-Americans from the western United States raised
in middle to upper-middle class homes.
Findings:
Respondents felt that both the franchise owners and the NBPA trust NBA
Commissioner Adam Silver. Te 24% discrepancy in the NBPA trust is
most likely due to the poor relationship the NBPA had with former NBA
Commissioner David Stern.
Respondents felt the franchise owners were well-represented during the 2011
lockout and labor negotiations, but felt the NBPA was misrepresented. Tis
feeling of misrepresentation by the NBPA will be a driving factor behind an
opt-out of the current CBA in 2017.
Respondents didnt feel strongly the owners would opt-out of the current CBA
in 2017, but overwhelmingly thought the NBPA would. Misrepresentation could
be a driving force behind an opt-out.
Tree signifcant factors that respondents felt caused the 2011 lockout are not
believed to be as critical leading to a 2017 lockout. Te factors that respondents
felt could lead to a 2017 lockout were centered more on players rights. Te three
factors that made signifcant jumps (player salaries, Bird Rights, draf eligibility)
are completely player-focused.
Comparison of the two surveys administered showed that while the
professional journalists (convenience sample) felt comfortable answering every
survey question, the vast majority of average NBA fans (random sample) did
not know how to answer many of the questions. Tis illustrates the need for a
separate tool that can educate the average NBA fan.
Conclusions:
Due to recent issues within the NBA, Commissioner Adam Silver has been
seen as a much more trustworthy commissioner in the eyes of the NBPA than the
previous commissioner, David Stern. Tese diferences certainly had an impact
on the results of the survey as the NBPA is fairly pleased with the way Adam
Silver is currently handling issues within the NBA.
Te results of this study also identifed the key points that could lead to a 2017
lockout. Focusing on these issues now (once a new NBPA president is chosen),
could certainly lead to prompt labor negotiations should either side opt-out of
the current CBA in 2017.
Survey Results
89%
86%
17%
65%
89%
of respondents think
NBA Commissioner
Adam Silver has the trust
of the franchise owners.
of respondents think
NBA Commissioner
Adam Silver has the trust
of the NBPA.
of respondents think
the franchise owners were
well-represented during
the 2011 lockout.
of respondents think
the NBPA was
well-represented during
the 2011 lockout.
of respondents think
the franchise owners will
opt-out of the current
CBA in 2017.
of respondents think
the NBPA will opt-out
of the current
CBA in 2017.
What are the leading factors that
could lead to an NBA lockout in 2017?
Distribution of Basketball
Related Income (BRI)
Distribution of Basketball
Related Income (BRI)
Player Salary Restrictions
Player Salary Restrictions
Team Salary Cap Team Salary Cap
Luxury Tax
Luxury Tax
Maximum Player
Contract Lengths
Player Amnesty Clause
Player Amnesty Clause
Larry Bird Exception
(Bird Rights)
Larry Bird Exception
(Bird Rights)
Minimum NBA Draf
Eligibility Age
Minimum NBA Draf
Eligibility Age
Maximum Player
Contract Lengths
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
31%
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
What were the leading factors that
lead to the 2011 NBA Lockout?