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gr/gpapadopoulos

&
1
13/12/07

1
) .
) , ,
:
P(A)
0.3
0.3
0.1
0.2

P(B)
0.4
0.4
0.5
0.5

P(AB)

P( A B)

P(A/B)

0.1
0

(15 )

2
) i. 5 (), 3
() 2 () ; ii.

.
; (..
..).
(10 )
) 40% .
70% 20% . i)
ii)
; iii)
,
. .
(20 )
) {B1 , B2 ... , B } P( Bi ) > 0 (
i = 1, 2, ... , ). P( A) > 0 ,
Bayes P( Bi / A) .
;
(5 )
3
) ( )

c x
f (x ) =
0

0 x5
.

c .
; i) ii)
iii)
3 .
(15 )

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) X t
t ,
Poisson.
3 : i) 2
ii) 4
2 iii)
2 2
.

(20 )

4
, 2%
.
300 .
( 300) )
; ) 300 ; )

, i)
ii) 15 .
(25 )
2 30 .
!

:
(0.75)=0.7734, (0.78)=0.7823, (0.8)=0.7881, (0.83)=0.7967, (0.85)=0.8023,
(1.24)=0.8925, (1.25)=0.8944, (1.5)=0.9332, (3.59)=0.9998.
, :
e 10 0.000045, e 6 0.0025, e 3 0.0498, e 2.5 0.0821, e 2 0.135, e 1.5 0.223

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( )

1
)
. ,
.

.

.
.

)
P(A)
0.3
0.3
0.1
0.2

P(B)
0.4
0.4
0.5
0.5

P(AB)
0
0.12
0.05
0

P( A B)

0.7
0.58
0.55
0.7

P(A/B)
0
0.3
0.1
0

2
10!
3!5!3!2!
) i.
, ii.
5!3!2!
10!
) : :

:
P( K ) = 0.4 , P ( / K ) = 0.7 , P ( / K ) = 0.2 .
i) :
P( ) = P( / K ) P( K ) + P( / K ) P( K ) = 0.4 .
40% .
ii) P( / K ) = 0.7 P ( ) = 0.4
iii) P ( K / ) . Bayes
P ( / K ) P ( K )
P( K / ) =
= 0.7 . , ,
P ( )
70% .

) P( Bi / A)
Bi
.

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3
5

c x dx = 1 ... c = 0.08 .
0

5 . i) E ( X ) = x 0.08 x dx = ... = 3.33

0

ii) P(2 < X < 3) = 0.08 x dx = ... = 0.2 iii)

P( X = 3) = 0 .

(3 t ) x
, x = 0,1, 2, ...
x!
i ) P ( X 1 2) = P ( X 1 = 0) + P ( X 1 = 1) + P( X 1 = 2) =

) P ( X t = x) = e 3t

1
2
30
17
3 3
3 3
=e
+e
+e
= e 3 = 0.4233
0!
1!
2! 2
ii ) P( X 2 4) = P( X 2 = 0) + P( X 2 = 1) + P( X 2 = 2) + P( X 2 = 3) + P( X 2 = 4) =
3

60
61
62
63
64
+ e 6
+ e 6
+ e 6
+ e 6
= 115e 6
0!
1!
2!
3!
4!
iii) ( ) 2 .
Y ~ B(3, 0.4233)
3
3
P (Y 2) = (0.4233)2 (0.5767 )1 + (0.4233)3 = 0.3857
2
3
= e 6

4
) ,
X ~ B(300, 0.02) ) () = 300 . 0.02 = 6 ) =300
p 5 q 5 , B (300, 0.02)

N (6, 2.42 2 )
:
86
36
Z
i) P (3 X 8) = P
= (0.83) (1.24) = 0.69
2.42
2.42
15 6

ii) P ( X 15) = P Z
= P(Z 3.72) = 1 (3.72) 0 .
2.42

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&
1
13/12/07

1
) i) ii) .
) 3 60.
3;
(15 )

2
) 6
( ) p (0<p<1).
1, 2, 3
4, 5, 6.

( )
R = p 3 (2 p 3 ) .
(10 )
) 1% .
95%
, 98%
.
. i)
, ii)

iii)
iv)
(ii) .
(20 )
3
) ( )

(8 x)

f ( x ) = 32
0

0 x

.
; i)
ii) 6
iii) 6 .
(15 )

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) f
1; , f
1; ( ).
(5 )
) , X t
6.5 Richter
t , Poisson.
3 ,
6.5 Richter i.
ii. iii)
.
(20 )

4
500
.

20%.
100 ( ).
( 100 ), )
; ) 100
; )
, i) 15
23 ii) 26 .
(25 )

2 30 .
!

:
(0.75)=0.7734, (0.78)=0.7823, (0.8)=0.7881, (0.83)=0.7967, (0.85)=0.8023,
(1.24)=0.8925, (1.25)=0.8944, (1.5)=0.9332, (3.59)=0.9998.
, :
e 10 0.000045, e 6 0.0025, e 3 0.0498, e 2.5 0.0821, e 2 0.135, e 1.5 0.223

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( )

1
) i. ,
ii.

60
= 10
. ) 3! = 3 =
3
3 6
2
) Ai , i = 1, 2, 6 : i .
:
R = P ( A1 A2 A3 A4 A5 A6 ) = P ( A1 A2 A3 ) + P( A4 A5 A6 ) P( A1 A2 A3 A4 A5 A6 ) =

= p 3 + p 3 p 6 = 2 p 3 p 6 = p 3 (2 p 3 )
) :
: .
: P ( ) = 0.01 , P ( / ) = 0.95 , P ( / ) = 0.98 .
i) :
P() = P( / ) P( ) + P( / ) P( ) = 0.95 0.01 + 0.02 0.99 = 0.0293
ii) P( / ) . Bayes
P( / ) P( ) 0.0095
P ( / ) =
=
= 0.324 .
P ()
0.0293
, 32.4%.
iii) P ( / ) = 1 P( / ) = 0.676
iv) ( 95%
98%)
(32.4%). (1%
).
( ),
(1%), 32 ,
.
3

8 x
dx = 1 ... = 8 .
32
0

8 i) E ( X ) = x
0

8 x
8
dx = ... = .
32
3

8 x
15
dx = ... =
iii)
32
16
0

ii) P (0 X 6) =

P ( X = 6) = 0 .
) f
1 .
, f ( ) f
. f
1
( f ( x i ) = P( X = x i ) ).

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(3 t ) x
, x = 0,1, 2, ...
x!
i ) P( X 1 2) = 1 P ( X 1 < 2) = 1 P ( X 1 = 0) P ( X 1 = 1) =

) P ( X t = x) = e 3t

30
31
e 3
= 1 4e 3
0!
1!
ii ) P( X 1 2) = 1 P( X 1 < 2) = 1 P( X 1 = 0) P( X 1 = 1) =

= 1 e 3

( 3 2)
3 (3 )
5 3
e 2 2 = 1 e 2
0!
1!
2
iii) ( )
6.5 Richter.
Y ~ B(3, 1 4e 3 )
3
0
3
3
P (Y = 3) = 1 4e 3 4e 3 = 1 4e 3 .
3
= 1 e

) (

) (

4
) X ~ B (100, 0.2) ) () = 100 . 0.2 = 20 ) =100
p5

q 5,

B(100, 0.2)

N (20, 4 2 )
:
23 20
15 20
Z
i) P (15 X 23) = P
= (0.75) (1.25) = 0.6678
4
4
26 20

ii) P ( X 26) = P Z
= P(Z 1.5) = 1 (1.5) = 0.0668 .
4