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Basic Technical Analysis


Online Class
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Technical Analysis



1 2

2

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Fundamental Analysis
1
1
2 2
2 2
2 2 1


1 1 2
2
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Technical Analysis History




& Joseph de la Vega & 17

&
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Technical Analysis History


& 18
Munehisa Homma


(Candlesticks Chart)

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Philosophy of Technical Analysis

1. Market Action Discounts Everything


2 1
2 2 1
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Philosophy of Technical Analysis


2

2 ,2 1

2 1

2 2

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Philosophy of Technical Analysis

2 2 1
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Philosophy of Technical Analysis

1 (Demand < Supply )


2 ()
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Philosophy of Technical Analysis

1 ( Demand > Supply )


2 2 1 (1 )
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Philosophy of Technical Analysis

2. Prices Move in Trends


2 2
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Philosophy of Technical Analysis

2
2 1
2
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Philosophy of Technical Analysis


1
12 1
2
2
2 1 2
2 2 1
22
1 2

1 22
2 1
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Philosophy of Technical Analysis

3. History Repeats Itself


1
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Philosophy of Technical Analysis


2 1
2

1 2
11
1 2 2
1 22
2
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Philosophy of Technical Analysis

Chart Pattern Head and Shoulder


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1.

2
1
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/
/
etc
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&


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2 1 1
1
1
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2.
2
1 2
2
1 1
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3. 1 11 2
1 2
1 2 2
2 2 1
2 1
2 2 12
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22
2
2
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4. 1
2 1
1 2
1
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5. 2
2
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1. 1
1
2 Trend following 2
Sideway
12 212

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2. 2
1 1
21
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3. 2 2
100 % 1 ,22
2 1 1 Stop loss
1 2
1 2
100 % 2

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4.
21
2 2 2
22
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Comparison of Technical Analysis in Stocks and Futures

2 1
futures
2
1 2
2 2
futures
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Stocks

22 2
1 21

1
2
2 2 2 1
1
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Stocks

1 ABC 100
100 10000
1.
ABC 1 10
100 1000
2. 2
200 20000
20000-10000 = 10000
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Futures

Futures 2
1 2 1
1 1
1
2 1
1 2
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Futures

1. (Commodity Futures) 1

1
(AFET) 2 1 2
6 1 3, 5%, ,
1 ,
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Futures

2. (Financial Futures)

() ()
TFEX 1
2 1 SET50
2 SET50 Index Futures
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Futures

Open Interest (OI)


Open Interest Future

future

long short
Open Interest
long short
Open Interest
long short
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Comparison of Technical Analysis in Stocks and Futures

Pricing Structure

Futures 1
2
, 1
1
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Comparison of Technical Analysis in Stocks and Futures

Limited Life Span

Futures
GFZ14/GF10Z14
2014 2 futures 12
2
1 2

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Comparison of Technical Analysis in Stocks and Futures

Lower Margin Requirement


1 2

Futures 1 1 2 22 10%
2 Leverage 2
2
2 2
1 Futures

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Comparison of Technical Analysis in Stocks and Futures

Time Frame is Shorter


1

2 Futures Leverage
2 Futures 1

Futures
2
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Comparison of Technical Analysis in Stocks and Futures

Greater Reliance on Timing


Futures
2 2 1

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Dow Theory

(Dow Theory) &

& Technical Analysis

Charles H. Dow (18511902) ,


,
100 ,
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Dow Theory

,, ,
,,



, 19
,

1902 , ,
The Wall Street Journal


industrial average
, ,
, The ABC of Stock
Speculation, The Stock Market Barometer
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Dow Theory
(Dow Theory) 6 G

1. The Averages Discount Everything

&
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Dow Theory
2. The Market Has Three Trends

& 3
1 The major trend
&
&
1
2 The intermediate trend
&
&

& & retrace


& 50%

&

3
&
3
G
3 The minor trend
G &
&
&

3
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Dow Theory
Major Trend
1
Intermediate Trend

3
3
Minor Trend

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Dow Theory
3. Major Trends Have Three Phases

Accumulation

Public Participation Distribution



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Dow Theory
4. The Averages Must Confirm Each Other

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Dow Theory
5. Volume Must Confirm the Trend

G )

Volume (

G

G
G
G

&
&
&

&
G

G

&
&
&

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Dow Theory
6. A Trend Is Assummed to Be in Effect
Until It Gives Definite Signals That It
Has Reversed



&
G &

&

&

& & ( &

) &
& &

&
&
&

& &
& &

&
&
G
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Chart

Chart
2 1 1
Chart
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Chart

ABC ()

22 6 2011
1 1
38.00
38.25
2 35.50
35.75
1 174,919,392
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Bar Chart
38.00
38.25
2 35.50
35.75

Bar Chart
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Bar Chart

Bar Chart
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Chart

Chart
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Chart

Chart
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Bar Chart

Bar Chart
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Volume

Volume
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Line Chart

Line Chart
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Candlestick Chart

Candlestick Chart
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Candlestick Chart

Candlestick Chart
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Point and Figure Chart

Point and Figure Chart


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Arithmetic vs Logarithmic Scale

Arithmetic Scale

Logarithmic Scale

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Arithmetic vs Logarithmic Scale

Arithmetic Scale

Logarithmic Scale
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Arithmetic vs Logarithmic Scale


Arithmetic Scale

Logarithmic Scale

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( Price Spread )

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Monthly Chart

Monthly Chart
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Weekly Chart

Weekly Chart
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Daily Chart

Daily Chart
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Hourly Chart

Hourly Chart
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Minute Chart

Minute Chart
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