MarketWatch: Why is this recovery unlike the others?

PORT WASHINGTON, N.Y. (MarketWatch) The rubber-band theory did not work this time.
Usually, a deep recession is followed by a steep recovery. It's like pulling on a rubber band: The more you pull, the more it
snaps back.
Translated to the economy, a deep recession leaves in its wake a host of pent-up demands.
For example, the long bout of high unemployment that accompanies a deep recession means that consumers must forego a
number of purchases, such as a new car, the latest smartphone, a more modern refrigerator, and so on. Once the economic
climate improves, shoppers are off and running in order to make up for lost time.
The same can be said for business. When faced with a prolonged bout of weak earnings, the first thing companies do is cut
expenses. Buying the latest computer or other technological innovation goes on the back burner until profits pick up.
On the other hand, a mild recession, either short in duration or shallow in depth, means that both employment and profits
are only slightly dented. Thus, spending patterns don't change all that much. Of course, you could argue, that's what makes
the recession mild in the first place.
Whatever the case, if you go by the past recession, the economy should be zooming ahead by now. After all, they don't get
much deeper or much longer than the 2007-09 downturn.
As a matter of fact you have to go back to the first leg downward of the Great Depression, the 1929-1933 plunge, to exceed
the 18 months that the past recession spanned.
All that said, the current recovery is, alas, feeble. It is not living up to expectations because things are different this time.
First and foremost, there is Potomac politics. The only thing you can be sure of when it comes to dealing with members of
Congress is that there will be battles for political turf with little or no regard for their constituents.
In other words, no one is sure what the political climate will bring this year and next. This means uncertainty over taxes and
regulations not to mention the granddaddy of them all, health care.
Then there is foreign competition. And while this has always existed, it is different this time because Washington has
allowed the dollar to become too strong against the currencies of our major trading partners. As a consequence, this makes
our exports less competitive in world markets, while foreign-made products are cheaper.
To get around this, many firms outsource a big chunk of their operations. This is facilitated by the rise of the Internet and
other forms of technology.
Finally, the Great Recession resulted from the bursting of a financial bubble. When this happens, it takes a while before
businesses and individuals are able to pay down their debts and borrow anew.
In today's context, the net result is less hiring, which begets less spending, which, of course, leads to less hiring.
The rubber band theory may not work, but the vicious cycle still does.

A Message For The Class Of 2013
Thank you, President and Trustees.
I have to confess that coming here to speak today raised a question in my mind: Now that high-school students are so
accomplished and work so hard, would I even be admitted today to this eminent liberal arts school, from which I graduated
25 years ago? I was curious enough about this that I contacted an admissions officer here. I asked her to dig up my old
application and give me a quick opinion.

This turned out to be a grave mistake. Not only was her answer 'absolutely not, ' but a few days later I received a letter
informing me that I had been retroactively denied admission to my own alma mater. To make matters worse, they culled
through the entire cabinet of applications from my year and decided to revoke admission for 73% of my classmates.
If that includes any parents here today, I'm really sorry. I've printed out the non-admit list, and after my speech I'll nail it to
the door of our 300-year-old memorial church, which has recently been transformed into the student-run coffee shop Jitters
and Beans.
If it happens that you're on the list, you will have the opportunity to reapply, so you'll probably want to work on bulking up
your application right away. A good start would be to show up tomorrow at 8 a.m. for dorm cleaning crew. And maybe this
summer you'll want to get an unpaid internship at the charity that you pretend to care about the most.
My own sudden lack of credentials caused me to reflect on the fact that I and apparently most of your parents couldn't hold
a candle to you when we were applying to college. So I want to pay tribute to the spectacular collection of new graduates
sitting here today.
In high school you were National Merit Scholars, student council presidents and captains of your fencing teams. You took
dozens of practice SATs, practiced viola for thousands of hours (violinists are a dime a dozen) and French-braided the hair
of homeless veterans.
You masterfully tied together a set of emotional symptoms that looked enough like attention deficit disorder to buy you
extra time on all your finals and standardized tests. Plus, you got to take the exams in special quiet rooms, where a test
facilitator would sharpen the pencils outside, because the grinding sound triggered your acute sensory overload. (Which
somehow didn't preclude your part-time summer job at Blenders Juicery.)
You hired private college advisers to read your essays and hone your interview skills. Just think back to those valuable
sessions where you learned to practically leap out of the chair talking about your passion for writing one-act plays in
Cherokee, or how your heart raced that summer on the Mongolian steppes when you first spotted an ovoo monitor lizard,
once thought to be extinct.
And you learned to deftly walk the college interviewer through your many achievements while still showing carefully
modulated self-effacement: 'Yes, I helped design the CO2 scrubber that will save humanity from global warming, but it was
totally a team effort.'
Then you arrived at this great institution, where you dabbled in a couple of your passions, only to quit them after freshman
year because you found new ones: playing hundreds of rounds of 'Settlers of Catan' and having long debates into the night
over which Stark son is hotter on 'Game of Thrones.'
The keys of your $20, 000 Powell flute became rusted shut after it was put to use as a bong for the last two years. Your
Wilson Pro H22 tennis racquet quickly became a drying rack for your underwear once you found out that the college tennis
team was filled with power-hitting recruits from Estonia and the Ukraine who could knock a flash drive off the top of your
head with a backhand.
So you relaxed into college life a well-deserved break after the exhausting race to get here. You've spent four years
percolating in a warm stew of beer, gender studies and online pornography which led to the subject of your senior thesis,
'Jacobean Dramatic Tropes in Modern 'Massage Surprise' Videos.'
Fortunately, your parents, who had become so accustomed to guiding you through the myriad decisions you had to make to
get into this place, have been able to stay in constant smartphone contact. You've been able to call them when you were at
the salad bar and couldn't remember which salad dressing you like. You were able to email them your sociology paper and
luckily, Dad's colleague Elliot at the firm had an M.A. in sociology and was able to make a few helpful suggestions, such as
the central argument, supporting evidence and the pull-it-all-together conclusion.
Mostly, though, you've spent your last four years being ... well, at home.
When I said goodbye to my son at freshman drop-off day, I was thrown into a black despair over how much I'd miss him.
But as it turned out, he had so few weeks of actually being at college that I never had time to miss him. Misty-eyed, when
the rest of the family was having dinner, I'd say, 'I wonder what Johnny's doing right now, ' and then I'd hear him call from
the family room, 'I'm watching 'Arrested Development.''

But let's not understate the big achievements you've racked up during the 70 or so days you've actually spent on campus.
The first, and perhaps finest accomplishment, is having persuaded your parents to spend hundreds of thousands of dollars to
extend your childhood for four years.
Let's also not forget how hard you've worked to find something to protest against. In my day, it was apartheid in South
Africa. In yours, it's championing people who wanted the God-given right to use a gender-neutral bathroom. Thrillingly,
you petitioned the President and Trustees and won: Now guys can make both bathrooms on every dorm floor equally
disgusting.
But there is another huge achievement that your generation will take away from college. A great stroke of genius that you
have collectively devised, marshaling all of the intelligence and drive that got you admitted here in the first place: the
hookup culture.
You've had vast amounts of sex weekends upon weekends of bed-swapping that began on Thursday nights. There is not a
single bed, couch, lab counter, library desk, football end zone, university founder's statue, Henry Moore sculpture or
monkey research cage on top of which you, the outstanding class of 2013, haven't copulated.
And you young straight men, in particular, have had amazing advantages. This school, like every other liberal arts
institution today, is 60% women. Factor in a gay population of 8% to 10%, and the odds were massively, groaningly in your
favor.
In my day, the male/female ratio was 50-50. Sadly, it was decades before women saw 'The Social Network' and realized that
by inviting the awkward kid next to them at the cafeteria's gluten-free station to bed, they could get in on the ground floor of
a Zuckerberg or even a Winklevoss.
We didn't have a hookup culture. We had a dating culture. And even that was a culture I was on the periphery of, much like
Jane Goodall watching chimpanzees through binoculars hopeful that the chimps would invite her over but more terrified
that they would rip her face off.
So I stand here, looking at this beautiful, 60% female crowd, and wonder what the hookup culture would have meant to me
if I'd been in school today. I suspect it would have given me many more opportunities to be the only person not having sex.
I want all of you to take a moment and honor yourselves for this signature sexual revolution. Take heart in the idea that no
matter how hard things get, no matter what failures you endure, you will always have the memories of the night when you
and a drunk sophomore did it on top of two passed-out lacrosse players.
Unfortunately, those are memories you'll have to cling to a lot, because here is your dilemma: You, the best-prepared
college generation ever, have just spent four of the most formative years of your lives in an environment that's the exact
opposite of the real world. Every room you've walked into here was filled with ambitious, fascinating people who shared
your interests in which pizza places took online orders and what your zombie kill count was in 'Call of Duty: Black Ops II.'
Your life has been a nonstop ride of work, study and fun. Now, though, you're about to walk out of those iron gates and
what? You're headed into the most challenging labor market of the last 80 years.
Because you're driven and have been told over and over in speeches like this one to follow your passion, you're going to
write eye-catching job query letters and send them with bulging resumes to the heads of Greenpeace, the Aspen Music
Festival, ESPN, the Clinton Global Initiative, 'The Colbert Report' and Tesla Motors.
That will take three days. Then you're going to have months and possibly years of free time ahead of you. Free time that you
won't know how to fill, because you've never really had any before.
Here's where I'd like to give you some concrete suggestions. One: Write a movie or graphic novel (six months, minimum)
and then put it on Kickstarter, asking for $25, 000 to put it into production. That will give you another t30 days to track the
progress of your contributions from friends and relatives, who secretly hope your goal won't be reached so they won't have
to fork over the money, read your book or see your film.
Idea two: On the social media app Foursquare, a person who spends the most time in a venue becomes its 'mayor.' Achieve
this distinction at your local Starbucks, beating out the guy who's constantly on his cellphone trying to sell medical office
furniture and the woman in the corner who makes doll house furniture out of wooden coffee stirrers.

Idea three: Constantly monitor news sites for breaking stories and then try to be the first to tweet an edgy joke about what's
happening. Speed is of the essence here, because within minutes others will carpet bomb the same territory with comedy,
but if you're first out of the gate, you'll get the retweets. This won't land you a job or get you paid, but you can't
underestimate bragging rights at friends' engagement parties.
A final idea is to go to the least expensive graduate school you can find and just hunker down. You'll want to look as young
as possible when actual good jobs come in three to seven years and you're competing against new grads, so try not to get
any wrinkles stay out of the sun and don't smoke or react facially to anything, even if the Cubs win the World Series or if
they find out that Amelia Earhart ate her navigator Fred Noonan.
I know that I haven't given you the keys to happiness in this speech today, but what more can you expect from someone
who's just lost his B.A.? I believe that because most commencement speakers have been so successful, they think they can
identify the ingredients that led them to success. But they tend to discount the major role that simple good fortune and
timing played in their prosperity. So I advise you to ignore all the cliches of the typical commencement speech and do what
your generation does best: get lucky.























7 ways to make your life more joyful
Your cell phone is ringing. Your inbox is overflowing. Your friend wants to discuss her son's glue-sniffing habit. Martha
Beck has news for youyou don't have to Be There for all people all the time. Just follow her escape routes.
The great English writer E.M. Forster may have valued connection above all else, but for us 21st-century folks,
disconnection is as necessary as connection for creating a healthy, happy life. When we force ourselves to connect against
our heart's desires, we create false, resentful relationships; when we disconnect from the people who deplete us, we set them
free to find their tribes while we find ours. I've listed some of my favorite disconnection strategies below, in the hope that
you might find them useful.
1. Hide. Blame my high school English teacherI'll call her Mrs. Jensenwho married at 17, bore her first child at 19, and
was a farmwife and mother of four by age 22. When she felt overwhelmed, she'd retreat into a field of tall corn near her
house and hide there, listening to her children search for her, until she heard a cry of genuine pain or felt ready to reconnect,
whichever came first. "Martha, " Mrs. Jensen told me, "every woman needs a cornfield. No matter what's happening in your
life, find yourself a cornfield and hide there whenever you need to."
I've used hundreds of other "cornfields" over the years: cars, forests, hotels, bathrooms. I've been known to hide for days,
but even a few minutes can calm my strung-out nervesor yours. If you don't already have a cornfield, find one now.
2. Go primitive. We all know that technological advances have made connection easier than ever before. They've also led
some people to think that breaking away is a violation of the social order. At such times, I become downright Amish,
religiously committed to avoiding all modern communication technology. I unplug phones, computers, intercoms and fax
machines, risking opprobrium, because I know that if I don't lose touch with some of the people who are trying to reach me,
I'll lose touch with myself. The over-connected me is a cranky, tired fussbudget. Silence is golden if it keeps me from
broadcasting that fretful self into my network of treasured relationships.
3. Play favorites. Your ability to connect is a resource much more precious than money, so manage it well. Make a list of
everyone to whom you feel bonded, then consider what kind of return you're getting on your investment. It may sound cold-
blooded to say you must divest yourself of the relationships that give you consistent losses, but unless you do this, you'll
soon run out of capital, and you'll have no connection energy left to invest in anybody. So, please, decide now to
deliberately limit the time and attention you spend on "low yield" relationships. Above all
4. Get rid of squid. Squid is my word for people who seem to be missing their backbones but possess myriad sucking
tentacles of emotional need. Like many invertebrates, squid appear limp and squishybut once they get a grip on you,
they're incredibly powerful. Masters at catalyzing guilt and obligation, they operate by squeezing pity from everyone they
meet. Getting a squid out of your life is never pretty. Tell them straightforwardly that you want them, yes them, to leave
now, yes, now. This will be unpleasant. There will be lasting hurt feelings. Don't worry. Squid love hurt feelings. They
hoard them, trading them in for pity points when they find another victimer, friend. Let them go, their coffers bulging.
5. Be insensitive. This is a very compassionate way to use your own psychological instincts. Instead of connecting with
every person's problems, let yourself feel whether someone really needs your attention, or whether the best gift you can give
might be a little abruptness.
6. Rehearse escape lines. When I'm overextended, I paradoxically become worse at setting boundaries. I end up resorting to
rehearsed exit lines. Take the time to rehearse several reliable alternatives. Because, when you're exhausted, a practiced
excuse can keep you from wading deeper into relationships you don't need and can't handle.
7. Be shallow. Even staying in touch with a reasonably small number of high-quality people can be overwhelming if you
tend toward emotional intensity. In such cases, shallowness can be a delightful alternative. E-mail a stupid joke. Gather your
friends to watch TV shows in which strangers paint one another's rooms the color of phlegm and then feign mutual delight.
Once you know you can swim in the deep end of human connection, it's fun to splash around in the shallows.
I hope you find these disconnection strategies as useful as I do. By striking a balance between the imperative to "only
connect" and the need for individuation, you really will relax your psyche and your relationships, making your life as a
whole more joyful, more loving.
'Soft Skills' Can Help You Get Ahead

After working five years as a regional director at a large health insurer in Oakland, Calif., Daniel Eddleman felt ready to
move up the ladder. So he found a mentor within the company who agreed with Mr. Eddleman that his performance and
leadership ability merited the promotion.
But he'd need to work on a few soft skills to clinch the job. 'It can be a challenging environment to get noticed in because
it's such a big organization, ' says Mr. Eddleman, who connected with a job coach who helped him identify and work on
three weak areasincluding the ability to self-assess, manage his emotions and brag.
'I realized that I can sometimes come on too strong. I learned to let the moment pass so I could have the space to make a
calm decision. I also learned how to acknowledge my own accomplishments to the right people by feathering them into
conversation, which is something that I've never been comfortable doing, ' says Mr. Eddleman, who ended up getting the
promotion to vice president.
Most people are terrible at self-assessment, a core skill that is needed to succeed, says Peggy Klaus, an executive coach
from Berkeley, Calif., and author of 'Brag! The Art of Tooting Your Own Horn Without Blowing It.'
'It's not easy to turn the mirror back on yourself and be absolutely honest, ' she says. 'And it's hard for other people to give
difficult feedback. But you need to encourage honest feedback from third partieswho can help give you a more objective
viewpoint that you can act on.'
Although hard skills like sales and software knowledge can get you through the door, more companies are asking for soft
skills as well from job candidates, finds a recent study by Millennial Branding, a consulting firm in Boston.
Soft skills refer to personal aptitudes and attitudes, such as being a good listener and communicator, that affect how people
perceive you in the workplace and strongly influence workplace relationships. Fortunately, most soft skills can be adjusted
or learned on your own time with some feedback from peers.
Here are a few day-to-day skills that can play a big role in determining whether you get promoted, hired or even fired:
Compile two lists to use as an action guide. One should itemize what you do well and the second should list improvements
others would like to see in you, says Gabriela Cora, an executive coach in Miami. 'You have to be open for that feedback
and willing to work on those points. And don't just ask people that you're friendly with. Ask a couple of people that you're
always competing against or people that you butt heads with.'
Learn to control your emotions, and you should see a quick improvement in your working relationships. Uncover what
your emotional triggers are so you can predict and head off any potentially rash or embarrassing responses to peers or
bosses. Emotional outbursts aren't viewed favorably in most workplaces, which is why you should just excuse yourself from
meetings or work if you feel emotionally overwhelmed.
Know your limits. This can not only preserve your health and sanity, it can keep you from exceeding your limits and
making mistakes that can hurt your career. If you can only handle five of seven tasks, for instance, that's something you
need to talk to your boss about, says Ms. Klaus, who had a client who got saddled with two jobs and ended up hospitalized
because of stress and overwork.
'Your manager may not even know how swamped you are if you keep taking on additional work without question, ' she says.
'You need to outline very specifically what's on your plate, how much more you can handle, if any, and prioritize what
needs to be done.'
Most people are uncomfortable with self-promotion, but hard work doesn't always get noticed without a little help. There
are plenty of mediocre employees who get promoted because they're good at letting the bosses know how good they are at
their jobs, says Ms. Klaus. 'You simply want to let other people know who you are and what you've accomplished in a very
gracious and artfully skillful way.' For example, don't just boast, tell stories that frame your achievements in an entertaining
narrative way.