Jordan Bernhardt

Math 1040 Project 2

Part 1 A: The class size is 10. No, student didnt share same birthday. I think this is unusual may
be because of such a small class size.
Part 1 B: Calculation of Theoretical Probability of Shared Birthday
P (at least 2 share birthday) = 1 (365Pn) / 365); where n is the number of students
n = 10; P (at least 2 share birthday) = 1 0.823 = 0.117

Part 1 C: Simulation of Class Members Sharing a Birthday

85
166
177
218
225
267
322
349
360
No

46
109
141
176
197
217
243
272
325
No

54
116
118
127
142
161
219
270
319
No

46
66
85
125
156
270
274
300
324
No

71
106
114
148
154
156
250
272
337
No

46
67
141
186
228
259
305
330
351
No

55
125
163
178
220
227
297
338
355
No

54
100
145
148
202
227
238
245
306
No

38
53
177
202
209
226
246
254
359
No

34
41
83
114
195
225
230
280
346
No

80
138
138
142
151
192
202
342
350
Yes

28
33
34
50
133
203
245
253
296
No

46
58
69
105
113
180
304
311
331
No

90
98
165
166
211
227
257
264
284
No

88
105
166
179
196
235
242
286
331
No

69
128
150
155
253
281
334
336
352
No

133
141
184
221
221
290
353
355
364
Yes

84
101
102
180
242
268
281
288
360
No

Simulated Probability= number of yeses/20

= 6/20
= 0.3
Part 1 D: Conclusion
For the simulation of classes, a class size of 20 was used and 20 classes were simulated. The probability
that 2 people shared the same birthday in this simulation, P(S) was 0.3. The theoretical probability that 2
people share the same birthday in a class size of 20, P(T), was 0.4114. The simulation produced a lower
rate of shared birthdays than what is predicted by P(T).
When the class was polled, no one was found to share a birthday. The attending class size was
10. In a class size of 10 students the P(T) was 0.117 so the P(T) that no one shares a birthday in a class
of 19 students is 0.823 (1 P(T)). Taking all the data together, we can conclude that:

The poll taken in part one produce an unusual result since the chance that no one would share a
birthday was much higher based on the theoretical probability.
The simulation produced a result that was lower than the theoretical probability by greater than
27% which would make the event unusual.
The theoretical probability that at least 2 people share a birthday grows as the population size
increases.

83
88
160
168
267
275
311
365
365
Yes

17
37
75
81
127
162
189
276
363
No

Part 2 A:

# of pips P(x)
Expected Value
x * P(x)
2
0.0278
0.0556 0.1111
3
0.0556
0.1667 0.5000
4
0.0833
0.3333 1.3333
5
0.1111
0.5556 2.7778
6
0.1389
0.8333 5.0000
7
0.1667
1.1667 8.1667
8
0.1389
1.1111 8.8889
9
0.1111
1.0000 9.0000
10
0.0833
0.8333 8.3333
11
0.0556
0.6111 6.7222
12
0.0278
0.3333 4.0000
Expected Values
Standard Deviation
7.0000 54.8333
2.4152

Part 2 B:
Bin
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12

Relative Frequency Expected Value

x * P(x)
0.0250
0.0500
0.1000
0.0333
0.1000
0.3000
0.1000
0.4000
1.6000
0.1500
0.7500
3.7500
0.1000
0.6000
3.6000
0.1667
1.1667
8.1667
0.1583
1.2667 10.1333
0.1083
0.9750
8.7750
0.0667
0.6667
6.6667
0.0667
0.7333
8.0667
0.0250
0.3000
3.6000
Expected Values
Standard Deviation
7.0083 54.7583
2.3752

Part 2 C:
In the theoretical graph we see that the expected probabilities gradually increased and then decreased
uniformly creating normal looking distribution. In the simulated graph the distribution is not as uniform
because the number of throws were limited to 120. If more random throws were generated the graphs
would begin to look more alike.