ENSOQUICK LOOK March 6, 2014 A monthly summary of the status of El Ni no, La Ni na

and the Southern Oscillation, or ENSO, based on NINO3.4 index (120-170W, 5S-5N)
During January through February the observed ENSO conditions moved to the borderline of cool-neutral
and weak La Nina. However, most of the ENSO prediction models continue to indicate neutral ENSO into
northern spring 2014. During late spring and summer a warming tendency is seen in both dynamical and
statistical models.
Early-Mar CPC/IRI Consensus Forecast
1
FMA MAM AMJ MJJ JJA JAS ASO SON OND
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Time Period
P
r
o
b
a
b
i
l
i
t
y

(
%
)
ENSO state based on NINO3.4 SST Anomaly
Neutral ENSO: 0.5
o
C to 0.5
o
C
2014 2014
Mid-Feb IRI/CPC Plume-Based Forecast
2
FMA MAM AMJ MJJ JJA JAS ASO SON OND
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Time Period
ENSO state based on NINO3.4 SST Anomaly
Neutral ENSO: 0.5
o
C to 0.5
o
C
2014 2014
El Nino
Neutral
La Nina
Climatological
Probability:
El Nino
Neutral
La Nina
Historical Sea Surface Temperature Index
19821984198619881990199219941996199820002002200420062008201020122014
3
2
1
0
1
2
3

N
I
N
O
3
.
4

I
n
d
e
x

(
o
C
)
Time Period
NDJ Jan JFM FMA MAM AMJ MJJ JJA JAS ASO SON OND
-2.5
-2.0
-1.5
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
N
i
n
o
3
.
4

S
S
T

A
n
o
m
a
l
y

(
O
C
)
DYN AVG
STAT AVG
CPC CON
Dynamical Model:
Statistical Model:
NCEP CFSv2
NASA GMAO
JMA
SCRIPPS
LDEO
AUS/POAMA
ECMWF
UKMO
KMA SNU
ESSIC ICM
COLA CCSM3
MetFRANCE
JPN-FRCGC
CS-IRI-MM
GFDL CM2.1
CMC CANSIP
CPC MRKOV
CDC LIM
CPC CA
CPC CCA
CSU CLIPR
UBC NNET
FSU REGR
UCLA TCP
2013 2014
Mid-Feb 2014 Plume of Model ENSO Predictions
OBS FORECAST
IRI/CPC
Historically Speaking
El Ni no and La Ni na events tend to develop during the period Apr-Jun and they:
- Tend to reach their maximum strength during Dec-Feb
- Typically persist for 9-12 months, though occasionally persisting for up to 2 years
- Typically recur every 2 to 7 years
1
Based on a consensus of CPC and IRI forecasters, in association with the ofcial CPC/IRI ENSO Diagnostic Discussion.
2
Purely objective, based on regression, using equally weighted model predictions from the plume.