TRNG I HC NGOI THNG

KHOA QUN TR KINH DOANH

CHNG 2: GI TR THI
GIAN CA TIN T
Ging vin: Bi Thu Hin
Email: hienbt@ftu.edu.vn
1
MC TIU CA CHNG
Tnh ton c gi tr hin ti ca mt khon
tin, chui tin xut hin trong tng lai
Tnh ton c gi tr tng lai ca mt khon
tin hin ti, chui tin
Xc nh c li sut k
ng dng cc cng c tnh ton li sut tr
gp, lp lch tr n, nh gi tri phiu, c phiu
trn th trng ti chnh bng m hnh chit khu
dng tin (DCF)
2
TIN C GI TR THEO THI GIAN

Ti sao?


3
NI DUNG
1. GI TR TNG LAI CA TIN T
3. XC NH LI SUT
2. GI TR HIN TI CA TIN T
4
4. M HNH CHIT KHU DNG TIN
1. GI TR TNG LAI CA TIN T
1.1. Gi tr tng lai ca mt khon tin
1.2. Gi tr tng lai ca mt chui tin u
1.3. Gi tr tng lai ca mt chui tin bin i
5
1.1 GI TR TNG LAI CA MT KHON TIN
Tnh li n
Tnh li kp
6
V d: Mt khon tit kim 100 USD, gi trong
vng 5 nm, li sut 14%/nm, tnh li n. Xc
nh s tin nhn c sau 5 nm ti.

Tnh li n
Vic tnh li cn c trn s tin gc


7
V d: Tnh li n

Hin ti Tng lai
1 2 3 4 5
Li
Gi tr
Tnh li n
8
V d: Tnh li kp

Hin ti Tng lai
1 2 3 4 5
Li
Gi tr 100
Tnh li kp
Vic tnh li cn c trn s tin cui k trc


9
V d: Tnh li kp


Hin ti Tnglai
0 1 2 3 4 5
Li 0
Gi tr 100
Tnh li kp
10
V d: Tnh li kp
Hin ti Tnglai
1 2 3 4 5
Li 6.00 6.36 6.74 7.15 7.57
Gi tr 100 106.00 112.36 119.10 126.25 133.82
Gitr cui nm th 5= $133.82
Tnh li kp
11
1.1. GI TR TNG LAI CA MT KHON TIN
Cng thc

FV: Gi tr tng lai (Future Value)
PV: Gi tr hin ti (Prensent Value)
k: T sut sinh li
n: K hn (thng l nm)
12
V d
Bn gi tit kim ngn hng
Vietcombank s tin l 30 triu
ng, k hn 5 nm. Ngn hng
a ra li sut tit kim dnh
cho k hn ny l 10%/nm.
Vy sau 5 nm bn s c
Ngn hng thanh ton cho bao
nhiu?
1.1.GI TR TNG LAI CA MT KHON TIN
13

t FVF (k,n)= (1+k)
n
FVF (k,n) l tha s gi tr tng li
ca mt khon tin (Tra Bng)

FV= PV x FVF(k,n)
1.1. GI TR TNG LAI CA MT KHON TIN
14
1.1.GI TR TNG LAI CA MT KHON TIN
1.1. GI TR TNG LAI CA MT KHON TIN
V d : Nu thay mc li sut l 15% th s tin
l bao nhiu?




15
1.1.GI TR TNG LAI CA MT KHON TIN
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
0 2 4 6 8
1
0
1
2
1
4
1
6
1
8
2
0
2
2
2
4
2
6
2
8
3
0
Number of Years
F
V

o
f

$
1
0
0
0%
5%
10%
15%
Li sut
Quan h gia li sut v tin t
16
1.1.GI TR TNG LAI CA MT KHON TIN
1.1. GI TR TNG LAI CA MT KHON TIN
V d
Phi mt bao nhiu nm tng sn phm
quc ni (GDP) ca Vit Nam tng gp 2 ln
hin nay nu nn kinh t chng ta phn u gi
tc tng trng u hng nm l 8%?



17
1.1.GI TR TNG LAI CA MT KHON TIN
1.2. Gi tr tng lai ca mt chui tin u
Chui tin u (annuity): s xut hin ca
nhng khon tin bng nhau vi nhng k
hn bng nhau
V d: Mua nh tr gp, ng tin bo him
nhn th


100T 100T 100T 100T
0 1 2 3 4
18
K hiu:
CF: Dng tin cu thnh
FVA(annuity): Gi tr tng lai ca mt
chui tin u cui k hn
FVAD (annuity due): Gi tr tng lai ca
mt chui tin u u k hn

1.2. Gi tr tng lai ca mt chui tin u
19
1.2. Gi tr tng lai ca mt chui tin u
0 1 2 3 n-1 n
CF CF CF CF CF
CF(1+k)
n-n

CF(1+k)
n-(n-1)

CF(1+k)
n-3

CF(1+k)
n-2

CF(1+k)
n-1

1.2. Gi tr tng lai ca mt chui tin u
20
1.2. Gi tr tng lai ca mt chui tin u
Gi tr tng lai ca mt chui tin u l tng
gi tr cc gi tr tng lai ca cc dng tin cu
thnh ti tng k hn:

FVAn= CF + CF (1+k) + CF (1+k)
2
+.+ CF(1+k)
n-1



| |
1 2
) 1 ( .... ) 1 ( ) 1 ( 1

+ + + + + + + =
n
k k k CF FVAn
1.2. Gi tr tng lai ca mt chui tin u
21
1.2. Gi tr tng lai ca mt chui tin u
Dy s trong ngoc l mt cp s nhn c cng bi
q= (1+k) >1


k
k
S
n
1 ) 1 ( +
=
| |
1 2
) 1 ( .... ) 1 ( ) 1 ( 1

+ + + + + + + =
n
k k k S
1.2. Gi tr tng lai ca mt chui tin u
22
1.2. Gi tr tng lai ca mt chui tin u
1.2. Gi tr tng lai ca mt chui tin u
23
1.2. Gi tr tng lai ca mt chui tin u
FVFA (k,n) l tha s gi tr tng lai ca chui
tin u (Tra Bng)


k
k
n k FVFA
n
1 ) 1 (
) , (
+
=
FVAn = CFx FVFA(k,n)
1.2. Gi tr tng lai ca mt chui tin u
24
1.2. Gi tr tng lai ca mt chui tin u
V d :
Cui mi nm bn c th tit kim v gi vo ngn
hng 200 triu. Tnh gi tr tng lai ca dng tin
ny trn vo nm cui nm th 5, bit li sut ngn
hng a ra l 8%/ nm.
1.2. Gi tr tng lai ca mt chui tin u
25
1.2. Gi tr tng lai ca mt chui tin u
0 1 2 3 4 5
200 200 200 200 200
200
200(1+k)
200 1+k)
2

200(1+k)
3

200 (1+k)
4

1.2. Gi tr tng lai ca mt chui tin u
26
1.2. Gi tr tng lai ca mt chui tin u
V d 2: Tnh dng tin u khi bit gi tr tng lai
Mt ngi mun c s tin hc ph 30.000 USD cho
con trai i du hc vo 5 nm sau th anh ta phi gi
tit kim hng nm mt khon c nh l bao nhiu?
Bit li sut tin gi l 6%/nm?

1.2. Gi tr tng lai ca mt chui tin u
27
1.2. Gi tr tng lai ca mt chui tin u
Lu : Trng hp dng tin xut hin vo u k
hn (annuity due):
Dng tin xut hin sm hn 1 k hn. Khi , gi
tr tng lai ca chui tin u u k hn bng
vi gi tr tng lai ca chui tin u cui k hn
c tng lai ho thm 1 k hn na

1.2. Gi tr tng lai ca mt chui tin u
28
1.2. Gi tr tng lai ca mt chui tin u
0 1 2 3n-1 n
CF CF CF CF CF
CF(1+k)
CF(1+k)
n-3

CF(1+k)
n-2

CF(1+k)
n-1

CF(1+k)
n

1.2. Gi tr tng lai ca mt chui tin u
29
1.2. Gi tr tng lai ca mt chui tin u
FVADn = CF x FVFA(k,n) x(1+k)


FVADn= FVAn x (1+k)


Gi tr tng lai ca chui tin u vi dng tin
xut hin u k hn
1.2. Gi tr tng lai ca mt chui tin u
30
1.2. Gi tr tng lai ca mt chui tin u
V d:
Mt ngi quyt nh dnh tin mua nh sau
5 nm na. Hin ti ngi c 20000$, v
ngi quyt nh trong vng 4 nm vo cui
mi nm s tit kim c khon tin 20000$
nh vy. Nu li sut tit kim l 8%/nm th sau
5 nm ngi ny c th mua nh vi s tin ti
a l bao nhiu?
31
1.2. Gi tr tng lai ca mt chui tin u
Cc d n sn xut kinh doanh thng em
li cho cc ch u t nhng khon thu
nhp hay pht sinh chi ph khng ging
nhau qua cc thi k
Tnh tng gi tr tng lai ca cc dng
tin cu thnh

t n
n
t
t
k CF FVA

=
+ =

) 1 (
1
1.3. Gi tr tng lai ca mt chui tin bin i
32
V d
Cng ty Nam Phong d nh m rng 1 xng
sn xut bnh ko. Cng ty d kin u t lin
tc trong 5 nm vo cui mi nm vi gi tr
tng ng vi cc nm l 50 triu ng, 40
triu, 25 triu, 10 triu, 10 triu; li sut ti tr l
10%/nm. Tnh tng gi tr u t ca d n
trn theo thi gi ca nm th 5?
33
1.3. Gi tr tng lai ca mt chui tin bin i
NI DUNG
1. GI TR TNG LAI CA TIN T
3. XC NH LI SUT
2. GI TR HIN TI CA TIN T
34
4. M HNH CHIT KHU DNG TIN
2. Gi tr hin ti ca tin t
Mc ch:
Trong u t di hn, cc nh u t c khuynh
hng a cc thu nhp d tnh v hin ti
tnh ton, so snh v nh gi cc d n u t
nh gi cc phng n mua tr gp, gi bo
him nhn th, np qu hu tr.
35
2.1 Tnh gi tr hin ti ca mt khon tin

2.2 Tnh gi tr hin ti ca mt chui tin u

2.3 Tnh gi tr hin ti ca mt chui tin u
v tn

2.4 Tnh gi tr hin ti ca mt chui tin
bin i
36
2. Gi tr hin ti ca tin t


T cng thc xc nh gi tr tng lai ca mt khon tin:
n
k
N FVsaukyhan
PV
) 1 ( +
=
2.1. Gi tr hin ti ca mt khon tin
37
t PVF(k,n) =

PVF(k,n) l tha s gi tr hin ti ca mt
khon tin (Tra bng)

PVn = FVxPVF(k,n)
n
k
|
.
|

\
|
+ 1
1
2.1. Gi tr hin ti ca mt khon tin
38
2.1. Gi tr hin ti ca mt khon tin

Mi quan h gia tha s gi tr tng lai
(FVF) v tha s gi tr hin ti (PVF):


FVF (k,n) =

) , (
1
n k PVF
2.1. Gi tr hin ti ca mt khon tin
39
2.1. Gi tr hin ti ca mt khon tin
V d :
Hin ti bn phi m ti khon tit kim l bao
nhiu cho khon tin 200 triu s nhn c
thi im 10 nm sau? Bit li sut gi tit kim
l 12%/ nm.
40
2.1. Gi tr hin ti ca mt khon tin
2.2. GI TR HIN TI CA CHUI TIN U
PV??? CF CF CF CF
0 1 2 3 4
41
CF CF CF CF
0 1 2 3 n
2
) 1 ( k
CF
+
3
) 1 ( k
CF
+
n
k
CF
) 1 ( +
k
CF
+ 1
42
2.2. GI TR HIN TI CA CHUI TIN U
Gi tr hin ti ca mt chui tin u l tng gi tr hin
ti ca cc dng tin cu thnh bng:


Gi tr trong ngoc n l mt cp s nhn vi
cng bi



Suy ra:


(

+
+ +
+
+
+
=
n
k k k
CF PVA
) 1 (
1
....
) 1 (
1
1
1
2
1
) 1 (
1
<
+
=
k
q
k
k
CF PVA
n
) 1 (
1
1
+

=
43
2.2. GI TR HIN TI CA CHUI TIN U

t PVFA (k,n)=
Tra Bng



k
k
n
|
.
|

\
|
+

1
1
1
PV= CFx PVFA(k,n)
n
n
k k
k
CF PV
) 1 (
1 ) 1 (
+
+
=
2.2. Gi tr hin ti ca chui tin u
44
2.2. GI TR HIN TI CA CHUI TIN U
V d:
Tnh gi tr ca mt cn h chung c nu
n c bn tr gp vi li sut
10%/nm v thi gian l 10 nm, mi
nm tr 250.000.000 ng. Vic tr tin
c tin hnh vo cui nm.
2.2. Gi tr hin ti ca chui tin u
45
2.2. GI TR HIN TI CA CHUI TIN U
V d
Tnh gi tr ca mt cn h nu n c
bn tr gp vi li sut 10%/nm v thi
gian l 10 nm, mi nm tr 250.000.000
ng. Vic tr tin c tin hnh vo
u nm.
46
2.2. GI TR HIN TI CA CHUI TIN U


PVAD = CFxPVFA(k,n) (1+k)


Lu : Vi dng tin xut hin u k hn, ta c
cng thc tnh gi tr hin ti nh sau:



2.2. Gi tr hin ti ca chui tin u
47
2.2. GI TR HIN TI CA CHUI TIN U
2.3. Gi tr hin ti ca chui tin u v hn
-Cc dng tin cu thnh xut hin vnh vin, khng
c thi hn: Cng ty c phn tr c tc u i (gi s
cng ty khng bao gi ph sn), Mt mnh t dng
cho thu mi mi

48

k
k
CF PVA
n
) 1 (
1
1
+

=
0
) 1 (
1

+

n
k
suyra n
k
CF
PVA =

2.3. Gi tr hin ti ca chui tin u v hn

49
V d :
Mt bt ng sn em li thu nhp, chi ph hng
nm nh sau:
Doanh thu hng nm: 900 USD
Chi ph hng nm: 100 USD
Cc khon thu phi np: 150USD
Gi s khon thu nhp ca bt ng sn trn l
vnh vin. Tnh gi tr hin ti ca bt ng sn
trn bit li sut chit khu l 10%/nm
2.3. Gi tr hin ti ca chui tin u v hn
50


PV=

=
+
n
t
t
k
CFt
1
) 1 (
2.4. Gi tr hin ti ca chui tin bin i
51
V d:
Bn cn mua 1 chic t mi. i l bn t a ra 2 gi
nh sau:
Phng n 1: Thanh ton ngay 15.500 USD tin mt
Phng n 2: Thanh ton ngay 8.000 USD v tr 4.200
USD vo cui nm th nht v 3500 USD vo cui nm
th 2.
Li sut chit khu l 8%/nm
Bn nn la chn phng n no?
2.4. Gi tr hin ti ca chui tin bin i
52
NI DUNG
1. GI TR TNG LAI CA TIN T
3. XC NH LI SUT
2. GI TR HIN TI CA TIN T
53
4. M HNH CHIT KHU DNG TIN
3. Xc nh li sut
1. Tnh li sut vi k ghp li bng 1 nm
2. Tnh li sut vi k ghp li nh hn 1 nm
3. Lp lch tr n i vi khon vay tr u
4. Mi quan h gia gi tr thi gian ca tin t v
t l lm pht
54
Li sut i vi mt khon tin
Li sut i vi dng tin u (li sut tr
gp)
3.1. Tnh li sut vi k ghp li bng 1 nm
55
k =
1
n
PV
FV
T cng thc xc nh gi tr tng lai ca mt khon
tin , suy ra
3.1. Tnh li sut vi k ghp li bng 1 nm
56
3.1. Tnh li sut vi k ghp li bng 1 nm
V d:
Gi s mt ngn hng cho mt khch hng c
nhn vay 20.000.000 VN v nhn c
45.755.150 VN sau 5 nm, k ghp li theo
nm. Tm li sut ca khon vay trn?

3.1. Tnh li sut vi k ghp li bng 1 nm
57
3.1. Tnh li sut vi k ghp li bng 1 nm
Cch 1: Phng php th v sai (Trial and error)
S dng my tnh th cc gi tr k sao cho
17%< k<18% sao cho FVF (k,5) t gn gi tr
2,25 nht

Cch 2: Phng php hnh hc

- B1: Xc nh FVFo

- B2: Tra bng tm hai gi tr FVF1(k1,5), FVF2
(k2,5) gn vi FVFo nht sao cho k1<ko<k2 (ko
l gi tr cn tm)
58
3.1. Tnh li sut vi k ghp li bng 1 nm
FVF
FVF2
FVF0
FVF1
K1 K0 K2 K
1 ) 1 2 (
1 2
1 0
0 k k k
FVF FVF
FVF FVF
k +

=
3.1. Tnh li sut vi k ghp li bng 1 nm
59
3.1. Tnh li sut vi k ghp li bng 1 nm
p dng i vi vic tnh li sut
ca mt khon vay tr gp hoc
thu mua my mc thit b.
Khon tin vay c hon tr ti
nhng thi im nh trc, vi
s tin bng nhau
Tnh li sut tr gp (li sut i vi chui tin u)
3.1. Tnh li sut vi k ghp li bng 1 nm
60
3.1. Tnh li sut vi k ghp li bng 1 nm
V d :
Mt doanh nghip mun thu mua mt my ch vi
tnh tr gi 5.000 USD. Ngi cho thu yu cu
doanh nghip phi tr vo cui mi nm l 1527
USD trong thi gian 5 nm. Cng ty cn bit li sut
ca hp ng ti tr ny l bao nhiu ra quyt
nh?
Tnh li sut tr gp (li sut i vi chui tin u)
3.1. Tnh li sut vi k ghp li bng 1 nm
61
3.1. Tnh li sut vi k ghp li bng 1 nm
V d :
Ngn hng A thng bo li sut tin gi 12 thng l
10%/nm, k nhp li vo gc l na nm 1 ln
Ngn hng B thng bo li sut tin gi 12 thng l
11%/nm, k nhp li l hng nm.
Hi gi tit kim u li hn?
62
3.1. Tnh li sut vi k ghp li bng 1 nm
Cng thc tnh
li sut thc t
Ko: li sut thc t
(Effective Annual Rate- EAR)
K: li sut thng bo
(Annual Percentage Rate- APR)
Tnh li sut c k ghp li nh hn 1 nm
3.2. Tnh li sut c k ghp li nh hn 1 nm
m
m
k
k
|
|
.
|

\
|
+ = +
'
0
1 1
63
V d:
Ngn hng Vietcombank cng b li sut tin gi
l 9%/nm. Tnh li sut thc t m ngn hng tr cho
bn nu k ghp li ln lt theo na nm 1 ln, theo
qu, theo thng v hng tun v hng ngy
64
3.2. Tnh li sut c k ghp li nh hn 1 nm
GI TR TNG LAI CA KHON U T VI
K GHP LI NH HN 1 NM
Tnh gi tr
tng lai
ca mt
khon u
t sau n
nm vi thi
hn nhp li
vo gc m
ln trong
nm

mxn
m
k
PV FV
|
.
|

\
|
+ =
'
1
65
Mc ch: Lp k hoch tr n, theo di cng n
(phn bit gc, li phi tr)
3.3. Lp lch tr n i vi khon vay tr u
V d: Mt doanh nghip vay ngn hng mt khon tin
100.000.000 VN, li sut ngn hng 10%/nm, tr dn
trong vng 4 nm vo cui mi nm, mi nm tr mt s
tin bng nhau ( gm c gc v li). Lp lch tr n, bao
gm gc, li ca doanh nghip ?
66
B1: Tnh s tin phi tr mi nm
p dng cng thc
CF= PVAn/PVFA(k,n)
B2: Lp bng theo di

3.3. Lp lch tr n i vi khon vay tr u
67
K hn
S tin
u k
(1)
Tin thanh
ton trong
k (2)
Li
(3)= (1)x10%
Gc
(4)=(2)- (3)
S tin
cn li
cui k
(5)= (1)- (4)
1
2
3
4
Lp lch tr n i vi khon vay tr u
68
V d: Mt doanh nghip vay ngn hng mt
khon tin 100.000.000 VN, li sut ngn
hng 10%/nm, tr dn trong vng 4 nm vo
cui mi nm, mi nm tr gc bng nhau. Lp
lch tr n, bao gm gc, li ca doanh nghip
?
Lp lch tr n i vi khon vay tr u
69
K hn
S tin
u k
(1)
Tin thanh
ton trong
k (2)
Li
(3)= (1)x10%
Gc
(4)=(2)- (3)
S tin
cn li
cui k
(5)= (1)- (4)
1
2
3
4
5
3.3. Lp lch tr n i vi khon vay tr u
70
CPI: s n v tin t c th mua c r hng
ha, dch v tiu biu
T l lm pht: Tc tng CPI qua cc nm
Li sut thc t: li sut tnh n nh hng
ca lm pht
3.4. Mi quan h gia gi tr thi gian ca tin
t v t l lm pht
71
Cng thc Fisher (Quan h gia li sut thc t, li
sut danh ngha v t l lm pht)

Li sut thc t = Li sut danh ngha T l lm pht
) 1 (
) 1 (
1
t tylelampha
hnghia laisuatdan
cte laisuatthu
+
+
= +
72
3.4. Mi quan h gia gi tr thi gian ca tin
t v t l lm pht
V d 1: Li sut tri phiu chnh ph M l 2,5%/nm. T
l lm pht l 1,5%.
Li sut thc t = 2,5-1,5= 1%
V d 2: Trong giai on 1922-1923, kinh t c tri qua
giai on lm pht phi m 1200%/nm. Li sut tin gi
lc l 5%/nm
p dng CT Fisher:
Li sut thc t= (1+0,05)/(1+12) -1= -0,9192
Khng th p dng CT 2
3.4. Mi quan h gia gi tr thi gian ca tin t v
t l lm pht
73
p dng: S dng li sut thc t
tnh gi tr hin ti ca mt khon tin
Bn mun 1 nm sau nhn c 100 USD vi li
sut ngn hng l 10%/nm. Gi s t l lm pht
l 7%/nm. Tnh gi tr hin ti ca khon tin
trn.
3.4. Mi quan h gia gi tr thi gian ca tin t v t
l lm pht
74
NI DUNG
1. GI TR TNG LAI CA TIN T
3. XC NH LI SUT
2. GI TR HIN TI CA TIN T
75
4. M HNH CHIT KHU DNG TIN
4. M HNH CHIT KHU DNG TIN
M hnh chit khu
dng tin (DCF-
Discounted Cash Flow
model) xy dng trn
khi nim gi tr thi
gian ca tin t v
quan h gia li
nhun v ri ro
76
4.1 NG DNG NH GI TRI PHIU
1. Khi nim
Tri phiu (bond) l cng c n
di hn do chnh ph hoc doanh
nghip pht hnh nhm huy ng vn
di hn.

Thut ng
Li sut coupon
Mnh gi tri phiu (Par Value)
Ngy o hn
T sut sinh li ti thi im o hn (YTM)
T l hin ti (Current yield)
IV: NH GI TRI PHIU
4.1 NG DNG NH GI TRI PHIU
Khi nim: L tri
phiu khng c
thi gian o hn
(perpetual bond,
consol)

Cng thc tnh:

4.1 NG DNG NH GI TRI PHIU
KHNG C THI HN
Gi tr tri phiu c xc nh bng hin gi ton
b dng tin thu nhp t tri phiu trong tng lai

n
n
t
t
k
Menhgia
k
Tienlai
P
) 1 ( ) 1 (
1
+
+
+
=

=
IV: NH GI TRI PHIU
4.1 NG DNG NH GI TRI PHIU
Tri phiu c k hn khng c hng li nh k
Tri phiu khng c tr li hng nm m ch tr vo
mnh gi vo ngy o hn
n
k
Menhgia
P
) 1 ( +
=
IV: NH GI TRI PHIU 4.1 NG DNG NH GI TRI PHIU
nh gi tri phiu ghp li nhiu ln
trong nm

m: s ln ghp li trong nm

mn
mn
t
t
m k
Menhgia
m k
m Tienlai
P
) / 1 ( ) / 1 (
/
1
+
+
+
=

=
IV: NH GI TRI PHIU
4.1 NG DNG NH GI TRI PHIU
V d: Xc nh gi tri phiu c mnh gi 1000
USD, o hn trong vng 10 nm, li sut coupon
bng 10 % v t sut sinh li mong i ca nh
u t l 12%, li sut c tr 6 thng 1 ln.
IV: NH GI TRI PHIU 4.1 NG DNG NH GI TRI PHIU
T sut sinh li hin ti trn th
trng (Current Yield)
Cho bit t l phn trm thu nhp m tin li
tri phiu mang li cho nh u t hng nm.
% 100 x
ng Giathitruo
gnam Tinlaihan
CY =
IV: NH GI TRI PHIU 4.1 NG DNG NH GI TRI PHIU
V d:
Nu bn mua tri phiu vi mnh gi 100 USD vi
gi 92.5 USD, li sut coupon l 10% th li sut
hin ti l bao nhiu?
IV: NH GI TRI PHIU
4.1 NG DNG NH GI TRI PHIU
Li sut hin ti iu chnh: tnh n mc discount hay
premium ca nh u t

% 100 x
n sonamdaoha
ng giathitruo Menhgia
ng Giathitruo
gnam Tinlaihan
CY
(

+ =
IV: NH GI TRI PHIU
4.1 NG DNG NH GI TRI PHIU
V d: Tnh li sut hin ti iu chnh vi s nm
o hn l 5 nm?

IV: NH GI TRI PHIU 4.1 NG DNG NH GI TRI PHIU
Nu li sut c li coupon = 0 th CY c tnh nh
sau:
n: s nm o hn cn li

1
1

|
|
.
|

\
|
=
n
ng Giathitruo
Menhgia
CY
IV: NH GI TRI PHIU 4.1 NG DNG NH GI TRI PHIU
V d: Tri phiu c li sut coupon bng 0, c
mnh gi 100USD, o hn trong 2 nm c bn
vi gi 92.5 USD th li sut hin ti ca tri phiu
l bao nhiu?
IV: NH GI TRI PHIU 4.1 NG DNG NH GI TRI PHIU
T sut sinh li lc o hn (YTM)
V d: Gi s mt TP mnh gi 1000 USD,
thi hn 10nm, li sut c hng hng nm 12
% vi gi 831.82 USD, bn gi tri phiu ny n
khi o hn th t sut mong i ca nh u t tri
phiu l bao nhiu?
IV: NH GI TRI PHIU
4.1 NG DNG NH GI TRI PHIU
Khi nim:
C phiu l giy chng nhn quyn s hu
cng ty, ngi nm gi c phiu c quyn i vi
ti sn v thu nhp ca cng ty,
4.1 NG DNG NH GI C PHIU
nh gi theo nguyn tc chit khu dng
tin u v hn
Cng thc:
P = D/k

4.1 NG DNG NH GI C PHIU
Cng thc chung



Po :gi bn c phn thi im hin ti
Pn: gi bn c phn trn th trng ti thi im k
hn n
Dt: li tc c phn k vng ca mi c phn ti thi
im k hn th t

n
n
t
t
k
Pn
k
dt
P
) 1 ( ) 1 (
1
0
+
+
+
=

=
4.1 NH GI C PHIU THNG
M hnh tng trng n nh (Gordon)
Gi nh: Li tc tng trng vi mt t l n nh qua cc
nm

g k
D
V

=
1
4.1 NH GI C PHIU THNG
V d: C phiu ca cng ty k vng tng 10%/nm
mi mi trong tng lai. Nm trc cng ty tr c
tc: 25.000 VND/nm. T l chit khu d kin l:
22%
NH GI C PHIU THNG 4.1 NH GI C PHIU THNG
M hnh khng tng trng


k
D
V =
NH GI C PHIU THNG 4.1 NH GI C PHIU THNG
M hnh tng trng theo giai on
Gi nh c g1, g2 vi g2 c nh

(

+
+
+
+
=
+
=

) ( ) 1 (
1
) 1 (
) 1 (
2
1
1
1 0
g k
D
k k
g D
V
n
n
n
t
t
t
NH GI C PHIU THNG 4.1 NH GI C PHIU THNG
V d
C phiu GP c t l tng trng d kin 10%
trong 3 nm u v sau tng trng n nh
mc 6 %. Cng ty va chia c tc l 2.4 USD/nm.
T l chit khu l 12%. Tnh gi tr ca c phiu?

NH GI C PHIU THNG 4.1 NH GI C PHIU THNG