1.

Scenario Description (Initiating Event)

Inability to establish steady clientele after 9 months of aggressive field trials

2. Potential Causes (factors that could lead to the initiating event occurring)
Improper packaging
Wrong Strategy
Incompetence/poor skills for the job
Technically competent but very poor in marketing or people relations
Runs on a poor budget that is exhausted too early leading to cutting corners in outreach
after only 2 months
Scattered focus: Rapidly changing ideas, products or services
Wanting to do everything at once
Inability to hide emotions when dealing with potential customers---begging posture or
annoyed stance

3. Potential Consequences (Final outcomes/Impact)
Frustration
Business Closure
Emotional trauma
Eating becomes difficult
Severe cash flow trauma

4. Probability Analysis (Used as guide to select Probability on Matrix based on experience/past
events)
High if business is poorly planned
Probable if technical competence is much higher that marketing competence given that the
sole proprietor is combined designer, producer and marketer

5. Consequence Analysis (Guide to select Consequence Severity on Matrix based on experience/past
events)
Many sole proprietors are poorly funded
Poor training and awareness of effective strategies
Limitations in market research data may lead to poor pricing mechanisms.
Poor collateral levels make recapitalization difficult

6. Existing Safeguards/Controls: Prevention
Started small using own property, minimizing initial capital exposure
Attended Risk Management Seminar and as such aware of such dangers and will take actions
to minimize likelihood of occurrence.

7. Existing Safeguards/Controls: Mitigation
Started small, so consequence severity in terms of losses will also be small. May still have
funds remaining. Only the trauma of no customers might make continuation difficult.


8. Risk Estimate (Before Recommendations)
FINANCIAL: MEDIUM, EMOTIONAL: MEDIUM

9. Recommendations (To reduce Risk to acceptable level)
Change Marketing strategy: Consider focusing on technical and employing an external
marketer. Possibly someone who is VERY TERRIBLE at cooking but good with Human
Relations
Exploring other market segments through brainstorming sessions and creative analysis.
Explore New Markets.
Conduct market research to discover new buyer preferences
Momentary business failure is not life failure: Disruptions are an opportunity for greater
discovery-Always look for the learning opportunity in setbacks.

10. Risk Estimate (After factoring the effects of recommendations)

LOW RISK