Poincare in Science et Methode:

A very small cause that escapes our notice determines a considerable effect that we
cannot fail to see, and then we say that the effect is due to chance. If we knew exactly the
laws of nature and the situation of the universe at the initial moment, we could predict
exactly the situation of that same universe at a succeeding moment. But even if it were
the case that the natural laws had no longer any secret for us, we could still only know the
initial situation approximately. If that enabled us to predict the succeeding situation
with the same approximation, that is all we require, and we should say that the
phenomenon had been predicted, that it is governed by laws. But it is not always so; it
may happen that small differences in the initial conditions produce very great ones in the
final phenomena. A small error in the former will produce an enormous error in the latter.
Prediction becomes impossible, and we have the fortuitous phenomenon.



Norman Macrae in The Economist (1972):

The prospect is, after all, that we are going to enter an age when any duffer sitting at
a computer terminal in his laboratory or office or public library or home can delve
through unimaginable in- creased mountains of information in mass-assembly data
banks with mechanical powers of concentration and calculation that will be greater
by a factor of tens of thousands than was ever available to the human brain of even
an Einstein.

James Montier:

The best rule of thumb is that if you feel confident you are probably overconfident. I
have regular debates with one of my colleagues on this subject. He is a great believer
in having confidence behind an idea. I am much more skeptical. The evidence is
overwhelming; we are generally massively over-confident, so erring on the side of
caution makes sense to me. That said, investing is a very fine balance between
humility and arrogance. You need a certain amount of arrogance to be willing to
take positions that are contrary to everyone else, but you must also have the
humility to keep looking for the evidence that shows you are wrong in your
arrogance.