Millions of people are at risk from massive earthquakes in
the Himalayas, say geologists in the United States and India. Great earthquakes, they propose, are the only release for stress that has been building in the Earth's crust along the southern edge of the Himalayas for decades. Large earthquakes have struck this region every few decades since the early nineteenth century. Since 1950, when the biggest earthquake within a single continent in recorded history shook Assam, the fault lines have been silent. But the pressure has been mounting, say Roger Bilham of the University of Colorado, Boulder, and colleagues. Some parts of the Himalayan region have been seismically inactive for far longer, perhaps even for several centuries. If earthquakes happen in these places, they could therefore be catastrophic. Extrapolating from the human cost of earlier earthquakes in the light of today's population numbers, Bilham's team estimates that 200,000 people could be killed in a single event. But if the earthquake happened near one of the huge cities on the Ganges Plain, fatalities could be ten times greater, they speculate. This region, which stretches 300 km to the south and southeast of the Himalayas, is home to over 40 million people, mainly in the capital cities of Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Nepal and Pakistan. A disaster here would dwarf the one that occurred last January, when 19,000 people were killed by an earthquake in Bhuj, northwest India. The Bhuj event highlighted the ineffectiveness of building codes that are supposed to lessen the seismic hazard. Other Indian cities would probably be no better equipped to withstand a major quake. The region south of the Himalayas is earthquake-prone because the Indian continent is colliding with the Eurasian tectonic plate to the north. This process began at least 50 million years ago, creating the mountain range and the Tibetan plateau at the collision zone.Where the two plates converge, the Indian one plunges below the Eurasian. Pressure builds up as the plates push together, until the Indian plate lurches suddenly downwards, sending a great earthquake reverberating across hundreds of kilometres.