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Supply chain planning


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( )Cachon and Lariviere 1999

21

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4/
.

( )47

X1T

X2T

2.211

0.322

0.911

0.202

0.222


""

**2.221

(0)

22.311
()91 3


R2%

21.1

S.E

0.901

**2.113 *3.220

(**) (. )0001
(*) (. )0005

:
. - .

51

"" ( = )330468
( )0001 (. )2704

: :

- :

( )48


X1
X2
X3
X4

X1
2

X3
0.922
0.022
2

X2
0.901
2

X4
0.220
0.991
0.202
2

- .

( )49 ( )
( )

2
3
2
9



X1
X2
X3
X4

X6

X7

0.232
0.229
0.392
0.212

0.922
0.220
0.300
0.221

. .
.
51

- .

1/
.

( )30
( ) .

X2T

2.111

0.019



R 2%


S.E

92.2

0.92

0.901

:
- .

( )%2103=4
.

4/
.

( )31
( ) .

X1T

2.323

0.313



R 2%


S.E

30.2

0.111

0.922

( = 4

)%4005 ( . )00687 = S.E.

52


: :

- .

( )34


X1
X2
X3
X4

X1
2

X2
0.2022

X3
**0.900
**0.3122

X4
0.012
*0.212**0.311
2

(*) (. )0005

(**) (. )0001

( )0001 ( )0005 .

-
.

( )33 (
) ( )

2
3
2
9



X1
X2
X3
X4

X6

X7

**0.222
*0.212**0.121
**0.112

*0.211
**0.319**0.213
**0.110

(*) (.)0005
(**) (.)0001

. . - .

53

- .

1/ :

( )32
( )

X1T

X2T

X3T

X4T

239-

0.391

0.093

0.291

0.931

0.239
**

0.012
*
()3.01

0.913
**

0.220
**

()22.119

()21.111


""

**
()2.013-

()1.122

( 0 )

**
391.113
()222.9

R2%

11

S.E

0.329

(**) (. )0001
(*) (.)0005

:
. . - .

. . "" (

= )4260784 ()0001
( )13502

()00412 %88

54

4/

( )35
( ) .

X1T

X2T

X3T

X4T

0.212

0.021

0.191-

0.232

0.121


""

**
()2.201

0.099
*

0.011**

0.011
**

0.122
**

()3.023

()9.321-

()9.211

()99.031

(0)

**
211.11
()222.9

R2%

19.1

S.E

0.212

(**) (. )0001
(*) (.)0005

( ) :
. . . - .

"" ( )597066

( )0001 ( )13502

( )

( )%9207=4

()00161 =S.E

55

:
.

- .

- .

.
2/3
( ) .

( )
( ) (

) :

- ( )
.

( )36 ( )

X6T

2.211

0.291 -


""

1.221

0.992**
2.992 -

( 0 )


R2%

**
22.111
()91.2

21.1

S.E

0.112

(**) (. )0001


56

"" ( = )110869
( )0001 ( )28 1

( )%1908=4

-
.

( )37 ( )

X7T

1.212

0.102 -

0.211
**
**
2.0321.191
""
(**) (. )0001

( 0 )


R2%

**
32.329
()91.2

29.2

S.E

0.111


""

( )450452 ( )0001

(. )2801


( )%3205=4 ( )00689 = S.E.

: :

-
.

57

( )38 ( )

X6T

2.219

0.310 -

0.311
**
**
2.122()21.201
""
(**) (. )0001

( 0)


R2%

**
22.231
()221.2

1.1

S.E

0.220

( ) ( )

"" ( = )130347
( )0001 ( )13801

( )%808= 4
.

- .

( )39 (

X7T

2.102

0.921 -

0.221
**
**
()1.012-
()32.212
""
(**) (. )0001

( 0 )


R2%

**
20.212
()221.2

31.1

S.E

0.912


( ) ( )
. "" (
= )500193 ()0001
( . )13801 (4
58

= )%4607 (= S.E
)00275 .

: :

- :

( )20 (

X6T

1.112

0.211 -



R2%

S.E

91.2

0.222

0.112 -

( ) ( )

- .

( )21 (

X7T

9.190

0.221 -



R2%

21.1

S.E

0.011

0.111 -

( ) ( )
( )%5807= 4 .


.
59

:
.


.
3/3
.

( ) ( )

: :

-
.

( )24 ( )
( )

X5
**

X1

X2

X3

X4

0.110**

0.123**

0.122**

0.192 -

(**) (. )0001

61

( )0001

( )00823 - 00614 - .

-
.

( )23

X3T

X4T

1.902

0.220 -

0.133 -

0.229 0.903
**
**
9.121 2.12321.101
""
(**) ()0001

( 0 )

13.021
()91.3


R2%

11.1

S.E

0.901

. - .

"" ( )840019

( )0001 ( . )2704
( )00206 %7707

: :

-
.

61

( )22 (
) ( )

X5

X1

X2

0.021*
0.212

X3

X4

0.092
**
0.131 -

(*) (. )0005

(**) (. )0001

-
.

( )25

X2T

X3T

X4T

2.223

0.011

0.311

0.911 -

**
()21.301

0.222
**
()3.039

0.310
**
()2.111

0.111**
()20.311-


""

( 0 )


R2%

**
21.122
()221.2

91.2

S.E

0.991

(*) (. )0005

(**) (. )0001

( . ) .

( ) . - .

62

""

( = )380715 ()0001
( )13603

( )%2601 =4
.

: :

-
.

( )26 (
) ( ) .

X5

X1

0.132 -

X2

0.311

X3

0.212 -

X4

0.311 -


( )00745 -00467 -

-
.

( )27
.

X1T

X3T

9.129

0.011 -

0.021 -

0.211 -

0.221 -



R2%

S.E

10.1

0.011

63

- .

- .

()00098 %6007 .

:
.

4/3

Path Analysis

) .

: .

x3t
-0.402

-0.445

0.835

x6t

x2t

0.515

x5t

-0.587
0.301

x7t

x1t

-0.534

x4t
64


: .
x4t

-0.676
0.53
0.482
0.915

-0.297

x6t
0.26

x5t
-0.516

x3t
0.324

0.096
0.065
0.044

x7t

x1t

-0.088
0.133

x2t

: .
0.453

x7t

-0.766
-0587

x1t

0.356

x5t
-0.695

x6t

0.409

x2t

-0.318

x3t

"
"

.
65

* :

:
.

5/3 :

: :

-1 :



( ) .

-4 (
) :

66

-3
:

- .

.
: :

-1 :

67

-4 :

-3 :

: :

-1 :

68

-4 :

-3 :

.
6/3 :

: :

-1


.
69

-4
(

-3

"
" " " .

: :

-1

-4

.
71

-3

: :

-1

-4


"

"

-3



71

.
7/3 :
:

72

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