Coeficiente de Sacrificio

Repblica de Colombia
Departamento Nacional de Planeacin

Direccin de Estudios Econmicos

ARCHIVOS DE ECONOMA

The cost of disinflation in Colombia
- A sacrifice Ratio Approach-

Jos Daniel REYES PEA

Documento 243
13 de Noviembre de 2003.

La serie ARCHIVOS DE ECONOMIA es un medio de la Direccin de Estudios Econmicos, no es un rgano
oficial del Departamento Nacional de Planeacin. Sus documentos son de carcter provisional, de
responsabilidad exclusiva de sus autores y sus contenidos no comprometen a la institucin.
1
The Cost Of Disinflation In Colombia
A Sacrifice Ratio Approach

Jos Daniel REYES PEA
*
.
Departamento Nacional de Planeacin.

The disinflation episode that Colombia has experienced since 1991 has been costly in
terms of the output and employment. This paper computes the sacrifice ratio not only for
this period but also for each disinflation episode in the Colombian economy since 1957.
In order to accomplish the objective mentioned above, a range of methodologies are
used to compare the sacrifice ratio estimated for each episode. The results show that the
current disinflation episode appears to be not as costly as the previous one, however an
explanation of why the sacrifice ratio of the current episode should be calculated since
1997 is proposed.

[This Draft: October 2003]

Keywords: Sacrifice Ratio and Disinflation Monetary Policy.
JEL Classification Numbers: E52, E58.

1. Introduction

Since 1991 the Colombian economy has shown a disinflationary path. This is the result of the
fundamental objective of the central bank, established in the 1991 constitution, of preserving the buying
power of the currency. Although the achievement of this goal by the central bank has been remarkable
(figures 1 and 2), there is an economic debate about its responsibility in the mediocre economic growth that
Colombia has had in the last five years. Colombias average GDP growth in the period 1990-1995 was 4,5%
while in the period 1996-2000 it was 0.92%
1
.

The relationship between inflation and output has been widely studied both empirically and
theoretically. The most useful empirical tool to measure this relation is the sacrifice ratio, concept that was
introduced by Okun (1978). He proposed to exam a family of Phillips curve models to derive the cost of

*
I am grateful for comments and corrections from Gabriel Piraquive, Andrs Escobar, Natalia Salazar,
Fernando Mesa, Carlos Castro and Claudio Karl. Specially, I would like to thank Laurence Ball and Lawrence
Huiyan Zhang for their comments to my work. I also would like to thank Arzu Cetinkaya and Devirm Yavuz
from the research department of the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey. All errors are mine. Contact
information: jreyes@contractor.iadb.org.

2
disinflation in terms of the percentage of output lost during a given period. Later, Gordon and King (1982)
used a vector autoregression models (VAR) to estimate the sacrifice ratio. After that, Ball (1994) proposed a
different technique for estimating the sacrifice ratio for each disinflation episode based on the movements of
trend output and trend inflation
2
. Finally, Cecchetti and Rich (1999) used a structural vector autorregresion
(SVAR) approach to create an estimation of the sacrifice ratio, based on a structural identification of
aggregate demand and aggregate supply shocks.

The relationship between inflation and output or unemployment has also been studied in Colombia
from different perspectives. Studies made by Clavijo (1994), Partow (1995), Snchez and Nuez (1998),
Misas and Lpez (1999), and Birchenal (1999) have found evidence of the trade-off between inflation and
unemployment in the short run for the Colombian economy. Furthermore, there have been three papers which
have studied the sacrifice ratio: Sarmiento et. al. (1998) using Balls sacrifice ratio methodology analyzed the
desinflationary policies applied in nine countries, whose economic structure is similar to Colombias. Gmez
and J ulio (2000), within a model of transmission mechanisms of monetary policy estimated the sacrifice ratio
under different kinds of assumptions on the formation of inflation expectations. Finally, Gmez (2002) used a
model with a wage-price system, a real block, and an inflation targeting rule, which resemble price setting in
the Colombian economy to estimate the sacrifice ratio for different specifications of wage indexation.

The main purpose of this paper is to shed some light on the methodological discussion about the true
sacrifice ratio of the Colombian economy. In this sense, it computes the sacrifice ratio in each disinflation
episode following Balls methodology. Special attention is given to the current disinflation episode and how
robust the sacrifice ratio is under alternative specifications of inflation trend and output trend. Alternatives
methodologies such as Zhang (2001), and Cecchetti and Rich (1999) will be explored. Furthermore, three
alternatives measures for the output gap are explored and applied to Zhangs methodology.

This paper is divided in seven sections: Disinflation episodes are identified in section 2; section 3
uses Balls methodology to estimate the sacrifice ratio in each disinflation episode; section 4 applies Zhang
(2001) methodology in order to study long-lived effects of disinflation and to observe the effects of
disinflation on unemployment; section 5 test the robustness of the sacrifice ratio under different specifications
of output trend as well as inflation trend and explores the methodology proposed by Cecchetti and Rich
(1999); section 6 makes some comments about the cost of the current disinflation policy; and, finally, some
concluding remarks are presented in section 7.

1
In fact, in 1999 Colombia had its worst economic performance in all of its history, GDP growth was 4.20%.
2
Following Balls work, Zhang (2001) extended this methodology to consider possible long-lived effects over
the output (i.e. hysteresis) in a disinflation episode. His work also intends to measure the sacrifice ratio in
terms of unemployment.
3
2. Selecting Episodes

In order to select the episodes of disinflation in Colombia, Balls methodology is followed. In his
work he defined a disinflation period as: any period that starts at an inflation peak and ends at a though
with annual rate at least two points lower that the peak
3
. For doing this, three assumptions are required
accordingly:

Trend inflation is the centered nine-quarter moving average of inflation
45
.
An inflation peak is a quarter in which trend inflation is higher than the four previous and the four
following quarters.
An inflation though is a quarter in which trend inflation is lower than the four previous and the four
following quarters
6
.

Figure 1 and Figure 2 show the trend inflation in quarterly and annual data. Beginning in 1956 it can
be identified six complete disinflation episodes (1957-1961, 1963-1965, 1966-1968, 1974-1975, 1977-1978,
1980-1984) and the beginning of another (1991).

Figure 1. Trend Inflation and disinflation episodes
(1956 - 2002)
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
35.0%
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0
0
2
Data Source: DANE and Author's calculation.
Figure 2. Trend inflation and desinflation episodes
(1978:1 - 2001:4)
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
35.0%
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Looking at trend inflation between 1991 2001, it is notable that the current disinflation episode is
characterized by two sub-periods: the first one, which I called moderate disinflation period, began in the
second quarter of 1991 and ended in the third quarter of 1997; the second one, which I called pronounced
disinflation period began in the third quarter of 1997 and ended in the second quarter of 2001.

3
See Ball (1994) page 157.
4
Inflation is measured by the percentage change in the consumer price index (CPI).
5
This definition applies when there are quarterly data. If there are annual data, trend inflation is the centered
eight quarters moving average of inflation. The four quarters of the year, two of the previous year and two of
the next year.
4

6
For annual data, a peak (though) is a quarter in which trend inflation is higher (lower) than the previous and
following year.
5
3. Standard Estimation Of Sacrifice Ratio

The sacrifice ratio has its origins in the Phillips curve, concept developed by A. W. Phillips in 1958.
He found a negative relationship between inflation (defined as the growth rate of wages) and the
unemployment rate for England for the period 1861-1957. This finding was broadly tested around the world
and most studies confirmed the hypothesis of the existence of the trade-off between the inflation rate and
unemployment rate in the short run.

In Colombia, Clavijo (1994), Partow (1995), Snchez and Nuez (1998), Misas and Lpez (1999),
Birchenal (1999), and Gmez and J ulio (2000) used different forms of the Phillips curve and found evidence
of this trade-off in the short run. Figures 3 and 4 show the relation between inflation rate and unemployment
rate in Colombia with quarterly and annual data. It is clear that the relationship between these variables is
negative, as it has been confirmed by the previous studies. Specifically, Gmez and J ulio (2000) estimated a
sacrifice ratio of 0.789
7
or 0.322 using two different assumptions on the formation of inflation expectations in
an augmented Phillips curve
8
. Gmez (2002) estimates the sacrifice ratio building a model to resemble price
setting behavior in Colombia under different specifications of wage indexation; his results indicate that when
indexation is backward looking disinflation implies output cost, when there is a decreasing weight of the
backward looking argument in wage indexation the sacrifices ratio is lower, and with credibility of the central
bank disinflation may lead to a negative sacrifice ratio.

Figure 3.
Phillips Curve (1977:1 - 2002:1)
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
35.0%
40.0%
45.0%
5.0% 8.0% 11.0% 14.0% 17.0% 20.0% 23.0%
Unemployment Rate
I
n
f
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a
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R
a
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Figure 4.
Phillips Curve (1977 - 2001)
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
35.0%
5.0% 8.0% 11.0% 14.0% 17.0% 20.0% 23.0%
Unemployment Rate
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7
For this scenario, he also found a confident interval of (0.5 , 1.785) for the sacrifices ratio.

8
A simple Phillips curve model can be represented as
t t t
e
t t
y y + + = ) (
*
, where
t
is the inflation
rate,
t
y is the actual output level and
*
t
y is the full employment output level. Moreover 1 0 < < . In this
context, the sacrifice ratio is defined as
1
.
6
The method to compute the sacrifice ratio based on the Phillips curve has some implications that
makes it less useful for analyzing the cost of different disinflation episodes. This happens because it assumes
that the sacrifice ratio is symmetric on inflation. For these reasons, there are other studies that compute the
sacrifice ratio based on ad hoc estimates of the change in inflation and output losses. Mankiw (1991), for
example, used the Okuns law for United States in order to compute the sacrifice ratio of Volcker disinflation.

In order to develop a systematic estimation of the sacrifice ratio in any disinflation episode, Ball
(1994) proposed a method to estimate it as the ratio of the change in trend inflation and the sum of output
losses over a disinflation episode. The change in trend inflation is the difference between inflation trend
(section 2) at the peak (
P
) and at the though (
T
). The output losses are the difference between the log of
actual output (y
t
) and the log of trend level of output (y
*
t
). He assumed that:

Output is at its natural level at the start of disinflation episode (inflation peak).
Output returns to its potential level four quarters after the end of an episode.
Between this two points potential output growths log-linearity.

Then the sacrifice ratio for each disinflation episode is calculated as:

( )
P T
T
P t
t t
y y
SR

=

+
=
4
*
[1]

The output losses in any disinflation episode can be represented graphically as:

P T T+4
Potencial Output
Actual Output
y
t
Time
Output Losses
Figure 5.
Sacrifices Ratio by the Standard Method

This methodology cannot be used to compute the sacrifice ratio for the current disinflation episode
because equation [1] needs to know the time when this episode ends. The data showed in section 2 (figure 1
and 2) cannot be used to conclude if the disinflation episode has ended because the trend inflation is still
7
falling. For this reason the estimates, following Balls methodology, are only for the six complete
disinflations episodes showed in figure 1. The results are showed in table 1 for annual data, and table 2 for
quarterly data.

Table 1. Sacrifices Ratios in Colombia
1957-1984
Table 2. Sacrifices Ratios in Colombia
1980:III -1984:1
Episode
Length in
Years
Initial
Inflation
Change in
Inflation
Sacrifices
Ratio
Episode
Length in
Quarters
Initial
Inflation
Change in
Inflation
Sacrifices
Ratio
1957 - 1961 4 14.3% 7.8% 0.25 80:III 84:I 14 27.2% 8.8% 0.92
1963 - 1965 2 20.3% 8.9% -0.02
1966 - 1968 2 13.4% 6.4% 0.17 Source: Author's calculations
1974 - 1975 1 23.9% 2.3% 0.22
1977 - 1978 1 27.3% 5.1% -0.12
1980 - 1984 4 27.1% 8.1% 0.21
Source: Author's calculations

The sacrifice ratios lie within the interval (0.0 to 3.6) found by Ball (1994) for a sample of 28
disinflation episodes in 9 countries. The ratio is positive in four disinflation episodes and it suggests that the
cost had been moderate until the eighties. The interpretation of these sacrifice ratios is what percent the
current output has to fell, from its long run level, due to a reduction of 1% in trend inflation.

The sacrifice ratio calculated for 1980-1984 disinflation episode confirmed Balls results that annual
data understate output losses. Nevertheless, due to Colombias data availability, this cannot be tested for other
disinflation episodes.

Figures 6 and 7 show the difference between output trend and actual output in each disinflation
episode.

Figure 6. Trend output vs Actual Output
1956-1984
7.1
7.2
7.3
7.4
7.5
7.6
7.7
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Figure 7. Trend output vs Actual Output
1980:3-1985:1
7.0
7.0
7.0
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Data Source:Dane and Author's calculation.

8
There are two disinflation episodes with negative sacrifice ratios (1963-1965 and 1977-1978). This
means that in the period when inflation trend had been falling the actual output was higher that its trend. In
other words, it could be inferred that in these periods tight monetary policy did not reduce output level
because there were other factors that hit positively the economy (i.e. supply shocks)
9
.

Although the sacrifice ratio calculated in this section is the most common tool used to measure the
output loss due to a disinflation policy, it has some limitations. Among these limitations are:

As Zhang (2001) argues, this methodology could tend to underestimate the true sacrifice ratio if
economic shocks have long live effects in the economy.
Because Balls methodology assumes that the recession, in a disinflation episode, is totally cause by
a tight monetary policy it does not include the possible effects of supply or structural shocks.
Cecchetti and Rich (1999) proposed an alternative methodology to address this problem.
As Ball (1994) admitted, his methodology is very sensible to the definition of trend output. Changes
over how it is estimated vary significantly the results of sacrifice ratio
10
.

9
Nevertheless this hypothesis must be tested in future studies.
10
On the other hand, changes over the methodology used to estimate trend inflation do not varies the
calculates of sacrifice ratio.
9
4. Alternatives Estimations Of Sacrifice Ratio

This section uses Zhangs (2001) methodology on Colombia data. The sacrifice ratio will be
estimated for the same disinflation episodes with the assumption that the shocks could have long live effects
over the output. This implies that the output cost, due to a disinflationary policy, could be greater than the one
shown in the previous section.

Other approach to the problem is to compute the sacrifice ratio in terms of unemployment. This
methodology also follows Zhangs work.

4.1. Sacrifice Ratio under long-lived effects.

Zhangs methodology takes into account the possible persistence effect of the shocks in an economy.
To do this, he made the following assumptions:

Trend inflation is measured in the same way that Ball (1994). The assumption that output is at its
natural level at the start of the disinflation episode is also hold in this methodology.
For each disinflation episode, the rate of growth of natural output is equal to the rate of growth of the
Hodrick-Prescott filter (HP filter) of the log of output. This assumption introduces the possibility of
some persistence effects in the output.
He used two smoothing parameters of the HP filter (1600 and 16000) because the filter is affected by
recessions. For this reasons the sacrifice ratio could have been underestimated because of the
recession, due to a disinflationary policy, which could have affected its natural level
11
.
Finally, the compute of the sacrifice ratio uses the same equation ([1]) that Ball proposed in 1994.

Figure 8 shows the graphic representation of this methodology. It compares the output loss as well as
the potential output with the methodology presented in the preceding section. Area A represents the output
loss under Balls methodology meanwhile area B is the output loss that must be added to area A if the
economy shows some kind of persistence. As a result, the short-term loss in a economy is area A+B. Area C
is the long term loss due to the persistence of the shocks in the economy. In this study, as well as in Zhangs
work, I am only concentrated on the short-term loss.

11
This issue is very critical to the Colombian economy because in the current disinflation episode the output
felt to its worst level in all historical economic data.
10
P T T+4
Actual Output
y
t
Time
Old Potential
Figure 8. Sacrifices Ratio in a Economy with Persistence Effects
A
New Potential Output
B
C

This approximation has an important implication for Colombian data because it does not need to
know when the disinflation episode ends due to the assumption that natural output grows at the rate of the HP
filter. In other words, it is possible to compute the sacrifice ratio for the current disinflation episode (figure 9)
with the available data
12
. Figure 10 shows the output gap in this episode using the rate of growth of HP filter
with a smooth parameter equal to 1,600.

Figure 9. Trend Inflation in the Actual Disinflation Episode
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
35.0%
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Figure 10 .Output Gap in the Actual Disinflation Episode
(Lambda =1600)
7.1
7.1
7.2
7.2
7.3
7.3
7.4
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This episode is particular since the output level is near its natural level during most part of the
episode. This implies that a tight monetary policy, established in order to reduce the inflation rate in the
beginning of the nineties, did not affect economic activity. But what explains this atypical behavior of the
Colombian economy?, some insights to this questions are going to be explored in the sixth section.

12
For the current disinflation episode, the sacrifice ratio under this methodology is
( )
4 : 2000 4 : 1991
4 : 2000
4 : 1991
*

=

= t
t t
y y
SR
for
quarterly data.
11
The results for annual and quarterly data are showed in tables 3 and 4 respectively. The average of all
disinflation episodes is greater when the sacrifice ratio takes into account possible long lived effects
13
.
Although there is one episode (1966-1968) where the sign changed, compared to the application of Ball
methodology, all episodes show a greater effect (in absolute value) with respect to those showed in table 1.
Even thought the magnitude of the sacrifice ratios changed using this alternative methodology, they coincide
in the fact that the three most important disinflation episodes in Colombia are: 1980-1984, 1974-1975 and
1957-1961
14
.

Table 3. Sacrifices Ratios in Colombia with Long-Lived Effects
1957-1984
Table 4. Sacrifices Ratios in Colombia with Long-Lived Effects
1980:III -2001:1
Episode
Length in
Years
Initial
Inflation
Change in
Inflation
Sacrifices
Ratio
Episode
Length in
Quarters
Initial
Inflation
Change in
Inflation
Sacrifices
Ratio
(HP 1600)
Sacrifices
Ratio
(HP 16000)
1957 - 1961 4 14.3% 7.8% 0.25 80:III 84:I 14 27.2% 8.8% 2.11 2.27
1963 - 1965 2 20.3% 8.9% -0.33 91: II 01:IV 43 29.5% 22.3% 0.89 1.01
1966 - 1968 2 13.4% 6.4% -0.33
1974 - 1975 1 23.9% 2.3% 0.63 Source: Author's calculations
1977 - 1978 1 27.3% 5.1% -0.76
1980 - 1984 4 27.1% 8.1% 1.83
1991 - 2001 10 29.6% 21.9% 0.92

These results show that sacrifice ratios are greater with quarterly data than with annual data. As it
was expected, the sacrifice ratio with a natural output level calculated with a smooth parameter of 1,600 is
smaller than the another one calculated with a smooth parameter of 16,000, since the first one is very affected
by recessions, specially the last recession.

The current disinflation episode does not appear to be the most important one. This result is
something curious because this period had the worst economic recession in Colombia, however it can be
explained by the fact that the output was closer to its potential at the beginning of episode and because we do
not still know when this episode will end. Moreover, the fall in inflation is larger in the current disinflation
episode than in the previous one.

4.2. Sacrifice Ratio from unemployment data.

Zhang (2001) used this methodology to explore the sacrifice ratio as the cost of having a higher
unemployment rate due to a disinflation policy. His methodology has the following assumptions:

13
In fact, the average for annual data following Balls methodology is 0.12 meanwhile with Zhangs
methodology is 0.32.
12
At the beginning of the disinflation episode (inflation peak), the unemployment rate is at its natural
level (or NAIRU
15
).
The NAIRU is constant through the disinflation episode
16
.

The differences between the actual unemployment rate and its natural level is the unemployment
loss. In this context the sacrifice ratio can be constructed as follows:

( )
T P
T
P t
t t
U U
SR

=

+
=
4
*
[2]

Due to unemployment data availability, this exercise is estimated only for quarterly data
17
. For this
reason, only two episodes are analyzed: 1980:I 1984:I and the current disinflation episode. The difference
between the actual unemployment rate and the natural level in each disinflation episode is showed in figures
11 and 12.

Figure 11.
Actual Unemployment vs Natural Rate of
Unemployment (1980:III - 1984:I)
5%
10%
15%
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Figure 12.
Actual Unemployment vs Natural Rate of
Unemployment
(1991:II - 2000:IV)
5%
10%
15%
20%
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From figure 11 it is clear that unemployment was not affected in the episode of the eighties
meanwhile the current disinflation episode appears to have a greater impact in the unemployment rate.
However, the sacrifice ratio is smaller in the second episode because the change in inflation was higher in that
period. Table 5 shows the calculates of sacrifice ratio.

14
The set of episodes showed in tables 3 and 4 do not include the current disinflation episode because it was
not taken into account with Balls methodology.
15
Non Accelerated Inflation Rate of Unemployment.
16
The author also calculated the sacrifices ratio using the standard method. He assumes that NAIRU grows
log-linearly in the disinflation episode. Nevertheless, he recognized that it may not be a good idea to apply this
method to the unemployment data because there are two negatives sacrifice ratios. For these reason I did not
use this method for the Colombian economy.
17
Unemployment data corresponds to National Households Surveys for seven cities from 1977 to 2000. The
cities which are include are: Bogot, Barranquilla, Cali, Medelln, Bucaramanga, Cali y Pasto.
13
Episode
Length in
Quarters
Initial
Inflation
Change in
Inflation
Sacrifices
Ratio
80:III 84:I 14 27.2% 8.8% 3.42
91: II 00:IV 39 29.5% 21.2% 3.34
Table 5. Sacrifices Ratio with Unemployment Data

For the two disinflation episodes analyzed the sacrifice ratio is positive. Its interpretation is that
when the inflation trend went down for 1%, the unemployment losses ( U
t
U
*
t
) go up by 3.42% in the
eighties and 3.34% in the current disinflation episode.

For the disinflation episode from 1980 to 1984, this methodology appears appropriate because the
natural rate of unemployment was very close to the rate estimated by Nez and Bernal (1998), and Henao
and Rojas (1998), moreover the level of unemployment rate at the beginning of the current disinflation
episode was very close to 10%. On the other hand, this argument does not appears to be very convincing for
the current episode given the increasing literature about the existence of hysteresis effects in the
unemployment rate
18
.

18
See Guataqu (2000), Reyes (2002) y Snchez et. al. (2002).
14
5. Some Changes Over The Methodologies And An
Econometric Approach

One of the concerns on Balls methodology is the lack of robustness to changes over how the
potential output is computed. In this section, I will change the assumptions about trend output as well as trend
inflation to see how robust are the preceding estimates for Colombia.

Another concern is on the effects of supply shocks over the methodology. Cecchetti and Rich (1999)
proposed the estimation of a structural VAR system for this problem. In the second part of this section, I will
apply this technique for Colombia.

5.1. Changes over the Methodologies.

5.1.1. Trend Output.

Three alternative measures of the output gap are used. The first one is the difference between
capacity utilization and its average over time, the second one is using a potential output constructed by the
estimation of aggregate production function for the Colombian economy, and the third one is to apply the
one-side HP filter to avoid the potential negative bias in Zhangs methodology.

The capacity utilization is a close indicator of economic performance. In this context, a proxy of the
output gap is constructed as the difference between actual capacity utilization and its average over time. The
data corresponds to the survey on the opinion of the entrepreneurs and businessmen gathered by Fedesarrollo.
Figure 13 illustrates the proxy of output gap and each disinflation episode.

Figure 13. Capacity Utilization .
Proxy of Output Gap.
60.0%
65.0%
70.0%
75.0%
80.0%
I

8
1
I

8
2
I

8
3
I

8
4
I

8
5
I

8
6
I

8
7
I

8
8
I

8
9
I

9
0
I

9
1
I

9
2
I

9
3
I

9
4
I

9
5
I

9
6
I

9
7
I

9
8
I

9
9
I

0
0
I

0
1
I

0
2
Data Source: Fedesarrollo.

15
The standard methodology of the sacrifice ratio uses a statistic approach for output trend. In the
second approach, I am going to use a economic approach to estimate a potential output. Therefore, I use the
estimation of the potential output for the Colombian economy using a Constant Elasticity of Substitution
(CES) production function
19
. Figure 14 and 15 show the potential output as well as the output gap estimated
using this methodology.

Figure 14. Actual Output vs Potential Output
7.0
7.1
7.1
7.2
7.2
7.3
7.3
7.4
I

8
1
I

8
2
I

8
3
I

8
4
I

8
5
I

8
6
I

8
7
I

8
8
I

8
9
I

9
0
I

9
1
I

9
2
I

9
3
I

9
4
I

9
5
I

9
6
I

9
7
I

9
8
I

9
9
I

0
0
I

0
1
I

0
2
Figure 15. Output Gap from a CES Production
Function.
-0.0
-0.0
-0.0
-0.0
-
0.0
0.0
I

8
1
I

8
2
I

8
3
I

8
4
I

8
5
I

8
6
I

8
7
I

8
8
I

8
9
I

9
0
I

9
1
I

9
2
I

9
3
I

9
4
I

9
5
I

9
6
I

9
7
I

9
8
I

9
9
I

0
0
I

0
1
I

0
2

Finally, as Zhang shows in his paper, the rate of growth of the trend output could be negatively
affected by the recession during the disinflationary episode. As a result, the methodology is affected by a
negative bias in the estimates of the sacrifice ratio. A way to overcome the bias is with the one sided Hp
filter, that uses the growth of rate of the HP filter only up to the beginning point of the episode. This approach
could be very useful to estimate the current sacrifice ratio because the recession in 1998 affected the output
trend as it is shown in figure 16.

Figure 16. " one side" HP filter vs Huiyan' s Methodology
7.1
7.2
7.2
7.3
7.3
7.4
7.4
I

9
0
I

9
1
I

9
2
I

9
3
I

9
4
I

9
5
I

9
6
I

9
7
I

9
8
I

9
9
I

0
0
I

0
1
L
o
g

O
u
t
p
u
t
"one side"
Hp filter
Huiyan' s
Methodology

Table 6 shows the estimates for each of these three alternatives. The first and the third approaches
support one of the previous sections conclusions; the sacrifice ratio of the eighties appears to be greater that

19
This method estimates an aggregate production function. I calculated the natural levels for the inputs
(capital and labor), which I used to estimate the potential output for Colombian economy. For more details see
Reyes (2003) or appendix A.
16
the sacrifice ratio of the current disinflation episode. According to the second approach, the current
disinflation has a larger sacrifice ratio. There is an important change between the estimates of the sacrifice
ratio in the eighties with Zhangs methodology and with the one sided methodology. This is because the
growth rate of the output trend in the original methodology was 0.05% while with the one sided
methodology it was 0.09%.

Quarterly data
Episode Length in Initial Change in
Quarters Inflation Inflation Cap. Uti P. F. One Side
80:III 84:I 14 27.2% 8.8% 2.81 1.65 8.17
91: II 01:IV 39 29.5% 21.2% 0.74 2.04 3.60
Sacrifices Ratio
Table 6. Alternative calculations of Sacrifices Ratio

Using annual data, the three approaches supported the idea that the sacrifice ratio in the eighties was
larger that the current sacrifice ratio. All episodes kept the sign they had with Zhangs methodology except
the episode from 1974 to 1975 where the sign was negative with the production function approach.

Annual Data
Length in Initial Change in
Years Inflation Inflation Cap. Uti P. F. One Side HP
1963 - 1965 2 20.3% 8.9% --- --- -0.20
1966 - 1968 2 13.4% 6.4% --- --- -0.10
1974 - 1975 1 23.9% 2.3% --- -0.69 1.29
1977 - 1978 1 27.3% 5.1% --- -0.72 -0.49
1980 - 1984 4 27.1% 8.1% 0.66 0.76 2.71
1991 - 2001 10 29.6% 21.9% 0.16 0.50 1.39
Source: Author's calculations.
Sacrifices Ratio
Note: Empty spaces indicate that there was not available data for this episodes due
to differents approaches.
Episode

5.1.2. Trend Inflation.

I use three measures of trend inflation. Instead of constructing trend inflation as a centered nine-
quarters moving average, I use two alternatives approaches: five and four quarters moving average. The
results are showing in table 8 for annual data
20
. This exercises shows little difference between the estimates of

20
This exercise was not done for quarterly data because there was only one episode to compare.
17
sacrifice ratio under Balls methodology. In other words the standard methodology appears no to be sensible
to changes in the method used to obtain trend inflation
21
.

Annual Data
Length in Initial Change in
Quarters Inflation Inflation 9 quarters 5 quarters 4quarters
1957 - 1961 4 14.3% 7.8% 0.25 0.20 ---
1963 - 1965 2 20.3% 8.9% -0.02 -0.01 -0.01
1966 - 1968 2 13.4% 6.4% 0.17 0.13 0.12
1974 - 1975 1 23.9% 2.3% 0.22 0.19 ---
1977 - 1978 1 27.3% 5.1% -0.12 -0.05 ---
1980 - 1984 4 27.1% 8.1% 0.21 0.19 0.17
Source: Author's calculations.
Sacrifices Ratio
Note: Empty spaces indicate that the episode was lost due the different
approaches of trend inflation.
Episode

5.2. An Econometric Approach to Sacrifice Ratio.

This subsection develops one of the methods proposed by Cecchetti and Rich (1999). In their paper,
they derived estimates of the sacrifice ratio from different kinds of structural VAR models
22
. They found that
the estimates are very imprecise and that the degree of imprecision increases with the complexity of the model
used. This subsection makes a brief summary of the first model proposed by Cecchetti and Rich (1999) and its
applications for Colombian data.

This approach consists in the estimation of sacrifice ratio from a SVAR
23
that includes output (y
t
)
and inflation (
t
). The system can be written as:

t n t n t t t t
X X X X X + + + + + =

.......
2 2 1 1 0

With: [3]

i t
i t
i t
y
X
=
i i
i i
i
b b
b b
22 21
12 11

t
y
t
t

=
0
0
0
21
0
12
0
b
b
n i ,...., 2 , 1 , 0 =

21
I also try to obtain the inflation rate as the percentage change in the GDP deflator. In this case, the results do
not change and mostly all disinflation episodes remains equal as well as the sacrifice ratios.
22
In his comment to Balls original work, Cechetti suggested the use of this methodology in order to take into
account the possible effects of a supply shocks over the path of output and inflation.
23
A SVAR can be viewed as a dynamic simultaneous equation model with identifying restrictions based on economic
theory Cecchetti and Rich (1994), page 7.
18
Where
t
is a vector of structural errors that can be expressed as the innovation pertaining to an
aggregate supply (
y
t
) and aggregate demand (

t
). Due to the assumption that each shock comes from a
different source, it is required that [ ] I E
t t
=
'
.

In the context of the estimation of the sacrifice ratio, it is useful to present the system as its vector
moving average representation (VMA) because it uniquely identified the impulse responses of the system to
the structural shocks. In particular, we are interested in the dynamic output response to a demand shock (i.e.
monetary shock) in a given number of periods. Equation [4] shows the VMA representation for this system.

( )
=

= = + + + =
0
2 2 1 1 0
.........
i
t i t i t t t t
L A A A A A X
[4]
With
=
i i
i i
i
a a
a a
A
22 21
12 11

For an explanatory purpose it is useful to present [4] as:

=

+ =
+ =
0
22
0
21
0
12
0
11
i
i t
i
i
y
i t
i
t
i
i t
i
i
y
i t
i
t
a a
a a y

[5]

Cecchetti and Rich (1999) use [5] to construct an estimation of the sacrifice ratio. The sum of each
element
i
a
22
measures the effect of demand shock on its level. In the same way, the sum of each element
i
a
12
measures the effect of demand shock on output level. At this point, it is important to remember that we
are interested in the cumulative effect of output. For this reason, and in the same spirit of Balls original work,
the sacrifice ratio can be written as:

+ +
=
= =
=
= = =
+
=
+
0
22
0 0
12
0
22
0
12
1
0
12
0
0
12
0
...
) (
i
i
i
i
j
i
i
i
i
i
i
i
i
i
t
t
j
t
j t
a
a
a
a a a
y
S [6]
19
Equation [6] requires a time horizon ( ) in which the impact of a demand shock is going to be
analyzed. The numerator measures the cumulative output loss while the denominator is the difference in the
level of inflation after periods. Figure 17 illustrates the relationship between the sacrifice ratio and the
structural impulse response function for output and inflation.

Source: Cecchetti and Rich (1999)
Output
Time
Area
=
Inflation
Time
0
22
i
i
a

= =
0 0
12
i
i
j
i
a
0
12
a
0
22
a
Figure 17. Sacrifices Ratio under a SVAR Approach

The estimation of the structural system was done following Blanchard and Quahs (1989)
methodology. For this reason, the restriction imposed on the system was that aggregate demand shocks do not
have permanent effects on the level output. In particular, the following is imposed
=
=
0
12
0
i
i
a
.

Figures 18 and 19 show the impulse responses of output and inflation to a monetary policy shock.
The estimation of equation [5], for the Colombia economy, is equal to 8,55. This compute
24
assumes a equal
to twenty quarters
25
. Appendix B shows the main steps of the estimation of this SVAR. The economic
interpretation behind this value is that the GDP should fall 8.5 percent due to a reduction of one percent in the
inflation rate.

According to this methodology, a tight monetary policy has had important temporal effects over the
real activity. In particular, this methodology suggests that an important part of the economic recession since
1970 is due to this type of policies. Nevertheless, as Cecchetti and Rich (1999) admitted in their work, this
methodology seems not to be appropriated for estimate a precise sacrifice ratio; in fact they found that the
degree of imprecision increases with the complexity of the model used. Further investigation of this idea for
the Colombian economy may be warranted.

24
It was used quarterly seasonal adjusted data from 1977 to 2001.
25
This value is used by Cecchetti and Rich (1999) in their paper.
20
Figure 18. Dynamic Response of Output to a Monetary
Policy Shock
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.01
0.01
0.01
0.01
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
Data Source: Author's calculation.
Figure 19. Dynamic Response of Inflation to a
Monetary Policy Shock
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.01
0.01
0.01
0.01
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
Data Source: Author's calculation.

21
6. The Current Disinflation Episode

In this section I will explore some hypothesis on how the current disinflation episode could be
understood. The main purpose of this section is to come up with an answer to the paradox of having the
greatest fall in inflation since 1990 without the usual effects on output that one might expect under the
Keynesian theory
26
. Finally, I will estimate the sacrifice ratio without taking into account those years where
observe output was above potential output.

The hypothesis is basically as follows: In the beginning of the nineties, almost at the same time as
when the central bank began a tight monetary policy in order to induce a reduction of the inflation rate,
Colombia decided to open its economy (goods & capitals); these two features had two opposite impacts on the
aggregate demand: on one hand, not only national consumption but also national investment began to
increase
27
due to the new requirements of the productive system as well as the progressive changed in the
consumers tastes
28
. On the other hand, the monetary policy had a negative impact in the aggregate demand
given the central bank goal.

These two forces were in opposite directions and their impacts over the aggregate demand (i.e.
output) depended on which one was larger. From the beginning of the nineties to 1997, the positive impact
prevailed over the negative one making the output unaffected by the tight monetary policy
29
. The increases of
the total consumption as well as total investment was financed with debt, this fact made firms and household
accumulate liabilities, which increases their financial vulnerability
30
. This situation turned unsustainable in
1998 when the economy began to enter in a recessive phase. Since that year, the negative impact began to be
more significant than the positive impact. In fact, since that year output has been below its potential level
31

(see figure 10).

Due to the fact that monetary policy only had a negative impact over the output since 1998 and
because the main assumptions in Balls methodology is that recession is the result of a tight monetary policy,
I estimated the sacrifice ratio for the pronounced disinflation period. In order to do this, I use Zhangs
methodology since it does not require to know when the end of the recession will be. The estimated value is
3.6 using a smoothing parameter of 1.600 or 3.7 using a smoothing parameter of 16.000.

26
In other words, I am concerned with figuring out why the sacrifice ratio in the current disinflation episode is
not the most significant one. Moreover, this question becomes truly important when in 1999 Colombia had its
worst economic performance in all its history.
27
In fact, in the first middle of the nineties the consumption and investment grew at the average annual rate of
4.3% and 8.4%, meanwhile in the eighties these rates were 3.1% and 3.5% respectively.
28
This was the result of the imported goods which came to Colombia due to the elimination of the barriers of
external commerce. One example of this is the complete transformation of the vehicles used in the cities.
29
This period corresponds to what I called moderate disinflation period in section two.
30
This explanation is proposed by Echeverry (2001).
22

These values are comparable with those values showed in table 4 for the whole episode. As it was
expected these value are greater than those calculated in section 4. According to this estimation, the tight
monetary policy of the central bank through the decade of nineties has made output fell 3.7% from its natural
level, for each percent of reduction in trend inflation.

31
This period corresponds to what I called pronounced disinflation period in section two.
23
7. Concluding Remarks

This paper examines the output cost of disinflation in Colombia for each disinflation episode from
1957 to 2002 following the methodologies proposed by Ball (1994), Zhang (2001), and Cecchetti and Rich
(1999). In order to take into account the sensitivity of the results to the assumption on the construction of
trend output and trend inflation different procedures are used. Finally, the sacrifice ratio of the current
disinflation episode is estimated without taking into account the years where output is above its potential
level.

As it was expected, the sacrifice ratios for Colombia appear to be sensitive to the way the output
trend is estimated meanwhile they are not sensitive to the method used in the construction of inflation trend. It
is important to emphasize the fact that similar sacrifice ratios are obtained with Zhangs methodology as well
as with different ways used in estimating output trend. In particular, the capacity utilization seems to be a
good variable to obtain the output trend in the disinflation episode. Moreover, estimating the sacrifice ratio
from unemployment data seems to be appropriated for the disinflations of the eighties but not for the
disinflation of the nineties because there is a lot of discussion about the changes of the natural unemployment
rate. Table 9 shows the results of these approaches. The result of using the Cecchetti and Richs methodology
appears somewhat higher than the previous findings.

Table 9. Sacrifice Ratios in each disinfl ati on episode in the Colombian economy.
A Q A Q
Ball (GDP) 0.25 -0.02 0.17 0.22 -0.12 0.21 0.92
Zhang (GDP) 0.25 -0.33 -0.33 0.63 -0.76 1.83 2.11 0.92
1
0.89
1
Zhang (U) 3.42 3.34
Capacity utilization 0.66 2.81 0.16 0.74
Production Function -0.69 -0.72 0.76 1.65 0.50 2.04
One Side HP -0.20 -0.10 1.29 -0.49 2.71 8.17 1.39 3.6
9 quarters 0.25 -0.02 0.17 0.22 -0.12 0.21
5 quarters 0.20 -0.01 0.13 0.19 -0.05 0.19
4quarters -0.01 0.12 0.17
Mean
2
0.24 -0.10 0.03 0.31 -0.38 0.84 3.13 0.68 2.13
Standard Desviation
2
0.03 0.14 0.20 0.65 0.32 0.94 2.90 0.64 1.43
1. Using a smooth parameter of the HP filter of 1600
2. Zhang (U) is not incluided.
Note: The interpretation of this variables is what percent the current output has to fell (if it has postive sign) from its
long run level, due to a reduction of 1% in trend Inflation
1991 - 2001
1957 - 1961 1963 - 1965 1966 - 1968 1974 - 1975 1977 - 1978
1980 - 1984
C
h
a
n
g
e
s

o
v
e
r

O
u
t
p
u
t

G
a
p
S
t
a
n
d
a
r
d

M
e
t
h
o
d
o
l
o
g
i
e
s
C
h
a
n
g
e
s

o
v
e
r

I
n
f
l
a
t
i
o
n

T
r
e
n
d

24

The results show that the current disinflation episode has not been the most important one due to its
particular characteristics. Although, in this episode the output fell to its worst level and the decline in the
inflation rate was remarkable, at the beginning of the episode the output was above its natural level for a long
time. In this paper, it is argued that this happened because there were two economic forces playing opposites
roles in the Colombian economic performance in the nineties: the first one is the inflow of capital to the
economy and the change in consumers tastes, meanwhile the second one is a tight monetary policy conducted
by the central bank. This situation affected the true sacrifices ratio during this episode, in the spirit of Ball s
(1994) methodology. To overcome this situation the sacrifice ratio had to be computed only for those years
when the monetary policy had effects on the economic activity. In this case, the sacrifices ratio was higher
than for any other disinflation episode that Colombia has experienced since 1950.

In summary, the objective of this paper was to shed some light on the methodological puzzle of
having an acquired measure of the sacrifice ratio in each disinflation episode in the Colombian economy. This
issue is crucial for policymakers, since this tool would enable them to assess the consequences of previous
and current monetary policies. Nevertheless, there is a wide area to be explored in this topic. What the long-
run benefit analysis of disinflation is and what the role of fiscal policy should be in each disinflation episode,
are issues which further research is warranted.

25
8. References

Ball, L. (1994). What Determines the Sacrifice Ratio? in Mankiw G. (ed.), Monetary Policy, Chicago,
National Bureau of Economic Research.

Birchenall, J. A. (1999). La Curva de Phillips, la crtica de Lucas y la Persistencia de la Inflacin en
Colombia. Archivos de Macroeconoma No. 102. Departamento Nacional de Planeacin.

Blanchard, O. J. and D. Quah. (1989). The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply
Disturbances The American Economic Review. Vol. 79, No.4

Cecchetti, S. G and R. W. Rich. (1999). Structural Estimates of the U.S. Sacrifice Ratio, Research and
Market Analysis Group. Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

Clavijo, S. (1994). Inflacin o Desempleo: Acaso hay Escogencia en Colombia?. Archivos de
Macroeconoma No. 30. Departamento Nacional de Planeacin.

Echeverry, J. (2001). Memorias de la Recesin de Fin de Siglo en Colombia: Flujos, Balances y Poltica
Anticclica. Boletines de Divulgacin Econmica No. 7. Departamento Nacional de Planeacin.

Henao, M. and N. Rojas. (1998). La Tasa Natural de Desempleo en Colombia, Archivos de
Macroeconoma No. 89. Departamento Nacional de Planeacin.

Gmez, J. (2002). Wage Indexation, Inflation Inertia, and the Cost of Disinflation. Borradores Semanales
de Economa, No. 198. Banco de la Repblica.

Gmez, J. and J. M. Julio. (2000). Transmission Mechanisms and Inflation targeting: the case of
Colombias Disinflation. Borradores Semanales de Economa No. 168. Banco de la Repblica.

Gordon, R. J. and S. R. King. (1982). The output cost of disinflation in traditional and vector
autoregressive models. Brooking papers on Economic Activity 1: 205-42.

Guataqu, J. C.. (2000), Estimaciones de la tasa natural de desempleo en Colombia. Una revision.
Borradores de investigacin, No. 2. Universidad del Rosario.

Mankiw, N. G. (1991), Macroeconomics. New York: Worth Publishers.

26
Misas, M. and E. Lpez. (1999). Un Examen Emprico de la Curva de Phillips en Colombia. Borradores
Semanales de Economa No. 117. Banco de la Repblica.

Nez, J. and R. Bernal. (1998). El Desempleo en Colombia: Tasa Natural, Desempleo Cclico y
Estructural y la Duracin del Desempleo, 1976 1998. Archivos de Macroeconoma No. 97. Departamento
Nacional de Planeacin.

Okun, A. M. (1978). Efficient disinflationary policies, American Economic Review 68 (May): 348 52.

Pantula, S. G. (1989). Testing for Unit Roots in Time Series Data. Econometric Theory, 5, 256-271.

Partow, Z. (1995). Una Revisin de la Literatura sobre los Costos de la Inflacin, Borradores Semanales de
Economa No. 032. Banco de la Repblica.

Reyes, J. (2001). Evidencia de Histresis en el Desempleo en Colombia (1977 2000). Master thesis,
Universidad de los Andes.

Reyes, J. (2003). PIB Potencial bajo una Funcin de Produccin tipo CES, mimeo, Departamento Nacional
de Planeacin.

Snchez, F. and J. Nuez. (1998). La Curva de Salarios para Colombia. Una Estimacin de las Relaciones
entre el Desempleo, la Inflacin y los Ingresos Laborales, 1984 1996. Archivos de Macroeconoma No. 80.

Snchez, F., L.M. Salas and O. A. Nupia (2003). Histresis en el Desempleo Colombiano, mimeo,

Sarmiento, E., A. Pontn and C. Cardona (1998). Evidencia sobre desinflaciones: Experiencia
Internacional, Borradores Semanales de Economa No. 102. Banco de la Repblica.

Zhang, L. (2001). Sacrifice Ratio with Long Lived Effects. Working Paper 446, The J ohns Hopkins
University.
27
APPENDIX A
Potential Output from a CES production function.

This exercise incorporates an estimate of an aggregate production function for the Colombian
economy. GDP is produced by two inputs: Labor (L) and capital (K)
32
. The specific functional form of the
production function is shown in equation [A1].

[ ]

/
) 1 (

+ =
t t t
L K A Y [A1]

Where 0<<1 is the share parameter and >1 determines the degree of substitutability of the inputs.
A is the factorial productivity parameter and >0 is the returns to scale parameter. This function can be
transformed either into a Cobb-Douglas function, a function of substitutes goods or a function of
complementary goods depending on
33
.

Due to the functional form [A1], the estimation uses non linear least squares
34
. Since it is more useful
to treat the productivity as a time varying parameter instead of time invariant one, it is obtained as a residual
of the production function.

Finally, it is necessary to built the potential level of inputs (L and K) in order to put them into the
production function and to estimate potential output. For the stock of capital, it was assumed that the natural
capacity utilization corresponds to the average of the data that is above its historical mean level. On the other
hand, the natural level of labor was estimated using the natural rate of unemployment over the population
who are willing to work. In this context, the natural rate of unemployment corresponds to the average of the
data that is below its historical level
35
.

The potential output is estimated from the CES production function. For further details and results
see Reyes (2003).

32
The capital stock was corrected by capacity utilization indicator from Fedesarrollo.
33
When 1 is the case of perfect substitution, when is the case of no substitution, and when
0 = is the case of unit elasticity of substitution (Cobb-Douglas case).
34
The estimated equation was:
t t t t
L K A Y

+ + =

] ) 1 ( ln[ ln ln .
35
Due to data availability, this exercises was done only for quarterly data. For annual data it was assumed that
the natural rate of unemployment was the same that for quarterly data.
28
APPENDIX B

Drift Trend
Unit
root
Lags Autocorrelation Conclusion Drift Trend
Unit
root
Lags Autocorrelation Conclusion
Model 3
1.26 -1.73
(-2.8)
-1.09
(-3.45)
4 No
Model 3
0.67 -1.34
(-2.8)
-6.87
(-3.4)
3 No I(0)
Model 2
-0.13
(2.54)
-0.14
(-2.5)
4 No
Model 2
Model 1
-1.14
(-1.95)
4 No I(1)
Model 1
Drift Trend
Unit
root
Lags Autocorrelation Conclusion Drift Trend
Unit
root
Lags Autocorrelation Conclusion
Model 3
1.22 1.05
(2.8)
-1.21
(-3.45)
4 No
Model 3
2.61 -1.1
(-2.79)
-4.07
(-3.45)
5 No I(0)
Model 2
1.14
(2.54)
-1.08
(-2.8)
4 No I(1)
Model 2
Model 1*
2.72
(-1.9)
4 No
Model 1
I used the procedure suggested by Doldado et al (1990).
The critic value at 5% is in parenthesis.
* In the Dickey-Fuller test it is mandatory that the parameter of unit root to be less
or equal to cero. When the estimation is greater that zero it is necesary to use
another test. In this case I use the second model, even though the drift is no
estadistically different formzero
Augmented Dickey - Fuller t-statistic
[Inflation]
[D(Inflation)]
[Output]
[D(Output)]

Level Trend conclusion
Inflation 0.54 I(1)
D (Inflation) 0.21 I(0)
Output 0.16 I(1)
D (Output) 0.10 I(0)
Critical values*.
10% 5% 1%
Nivel 0.35 0.46 0.74
Tendencia 0.12 0.15 0.22
* These critical values do not depend on the number of data.
KPSS test

29
Lags Ho Ha
Trace
t-statistic*
Critical
Value (5%)
Trace
t-statistic*
Critical
Value
(5%)
Trace
t-statistic*
Critical
Value (5%)
r=0 r>=1 21.78 19.96 5.00 15.41 14.94 25.32
r=1 r=2 3.31 9.24 1.56 3.76 3.06 12.25
r=0 r>=1 24.88 19.96 8.44 15.41 19.22 25.32
r=1 r=2 6.48 9.24 -2.00 3.76 3.55 12.25
r=0 r>=1 32.90 19.96 8.39 15.41 15.88 25.32
r=1 r=2 6.54 9.24 1.85 3.76 2.71 12.25
r=0 r>=1 38.12 19.96 11.28 15.41 16.50 25.32
r=1 r=2 5.54 9.24 3.48 3.76 3.50 12.25
r=0 r>=1 17.12 19.96 4.04 15.41 8.00 25.32
r=1 r=2 2.62 9.24 1.03 3.76 2.88 12.25
* This statistic was adjusted for small sample according to Cheung and Lai (1993).
Note: I followed the so-called Pantula principle (Pantula (1989)).
4
5
Johansen procedure for cointegration analysis
-Determination of the cointegration rank-
Cidrift Model
1
2
3
Cimean Model Drift Model

Lags
Akaike
(aic)
Schwarz
(sc)
Hanna-Quinn
(hq)
0 -19.4829 -19.4829 -19.4829
1 -19.4453 -19.335 -19.4008
2 -19.4369 -19.2162 -19.3479
3 -19.4789 -19.1478 -19.3453
4 -19.9758 -19.5343 -19.7977
5 -19.9374 -19.3856 -19.7148
6 -19.9824 -19.3202 -19.7152
Model selection criteria for the VAR.
Note: For each of the lags I used the same sample
period in order to make them comparable.

Lags
Pormanteau
Test
Adjusted
Pormanteau
Test
Lambda 1
(Kurtosis)
Lambda 2
(skewness)
Lambda 3
(J oin)
0
209.79792
(0.0000)
241.40843
(0.0000)
9.49090
(0.00869)
28.40368
(0.0000)
37.89459
(0.0000)
1
223.43639
(0.0000)
254.56886
(0.0000)
4.57165
(0.10169)
30.34441
(0.0000)
34.91606
(0.0000)
2
150.12655
(0.00002)
172.42386
(0.0000)
4.41119
(0.11018)
39.23275
(0.0000)
43.64394
(0.0000)
3
127.89375
(0.0007)
147.58335
(0.00001)
3.09765
(0.21250)
28.90988
(0.0000)
32.00753
(0.0000)
4
79.58155
(0.36694)
92.85799
(0.09163)
0.05465
(0.97305)
9.67836
(0.00791)
9.73301
(0.04517)
5
79.16627
(0.23696)
91.55104
(0.05088)
0.30663
(0.85786)
2.06640
(0.35587)
2.37302
(0.66751)
6
63.33090
(0.57035)
73.63052
(0.24269)
0.29665
(0.86215)
7.03695
(0.02964)
7.33360
(0.11927)
P-value in parenthesis.
Autocorrelation Multivariate Normality
Error Diagnostic

C DLY(-1) DLY(-2) DLY(-3) DLY(-4) DLY(-5) DINF(-1) DINF(-2) DINF(-3) DINF(-4) DINF(-5)
DLY 0.0041 -0.1701 -0.1141 -0.0046 0.5016 0.1542 -0.1898 0.0713 -0.1003 0.0541 -0.0178
(-1.4951) (-1.5421) (-1.1594) (-0.0450) (5.0142) (1.4010) (-1.8159) (0.7834) (-1.1643) (0.60739) (-0.1957)
DINF -0.0093 0.0683 0.2602 0.2581 0.2022 0.1895 0.0081 -0.0958 0.2052 -0.4809 -0.0912
(-3.338) (0.6124) (2.6154) (2.48126) (1.999) (1.7027) (0.0764) (-1.0408) (2.3568) (-5.3441) (-0.9915)
DLY: First difference of Output. DINF: First Difference of Inflation.
Note: t-statistics in parenthesis.
Var Estimates

ARCHIVOS DE ECONOMIA

No Ttulo Autores Fecha

1 La coyuntura econmica en Colombia y Venezuela Andrs LANGEBAEK Octubre 1992
Patricia DELGADO
Fernando Mesa Parra

2 La tasa de cambio y el comercio colombo-venezolano Fernando Mesa Parra Noviembre 1992
Andrs LANGEBAEK

3 Las mayores exportaciones colombianas de caf redujeron Carlos Esteban POSADA Noviembre 1992
el precio externo? Andrs LANGEBAEK

4 El dficit pblico: una perspectiva macroeconmica. J orge Enrique RESTREPO Noviembre 1992
J uan Pablo ZRATE
Carlos Esteban POSADA

5 El costo de uso del capital en Colombia. Mauricio OLIVERA Diciembre 1992

6 Colombia y los flujos de capital privado a Amrica Latina Andrs LANGEBAEK Febrero 1993

7 Infraestructura fsica. Clubs de convergencia y crecimiento J os Dario URIBE Febrero 1993
econmico.

8 El costo de uso del capital: una nueva estimacin (Revisin) Mauricio OLIVERA Marzo 1993

9 Dos modelos de transporte de carga por carretera. Carlos Esteban POSADA Marzo 1993
Edgar TRUJ ILLO CIRO
Alvaro CONCHA
J uan Carlos ELORZA

10 La determinacin del precio interno del caf en un modelo Carlos Felipe J ARAMILLO Abril 1993
de optimizacin intertemporal. Carlos Esteban POSADA

11 El encaje ptimo Edgar TRUJ ILLO CIRO Mayo 1993

12 Crecimiento econmico, Capital Carlos Esteban POSADA J unio 1993
humano y educacin: la teora y el
caso colombiano posterior a 1945

13 Estimacin del PIB trimestral segn los componentes del gasto. Rafael CUBILLOS J unio 1993
Fanny Mercedes VALDERRAMA

14 Diferencial de tasas de inters y flujos de capital en Colombia Andrs LANGEBAEK Agosto 1993
(1980-1993)

15 Empleo y capital en Colombia: nuevas Adriana BARRIOS Septiembre 1993
estimaciones (1950-1992) Marta Luz HENAO
Fanny Mercedes VALDERRAMA
Diego Mauricio VSQUEZ

16 Productividad, crecimiento y ciclos en la economa Carlos Esteban POSADA Septiembre 1993
colombiana (1967-1992)

17 Crecimiento econmico y apertura en Chile y Mxico y Fernando MESA PARRA Septiembre 1993
perspectivas para Colombia.

18 El papel del capital pblico en la produccin, inversin y Fabio SNCHEZ TORRES Octubre 1993
el crecimiento econmico en Colombia.

19 Tasa de cambio real y tasa de cambio de equilibrio. Andrs LANGEBAEK Octubre 1993

20 La evolucin econmica reciente: dos interpretaciones Carlos Esteban POSADA Noviembre 1993
alternativas.

21 El papel de gasto pblico y su financiacin en la coyuntura Alvaro ZARTA AVILA Diciembre 1993
actual: algunas implicaciones complementarias.

22 Inversin extranjera y crecimiento econmico. Alejandro GAVIRIA Diciembre 1993


J avier Alberto GUTIRREZ

23 Inflacin y crecimiento en Colombia Alejandro GAVIRIA Febrero 1994

24 Exportaciones y crecimiento en Colombia Fernando MESA PARRA Febrero 1994

25 Experimento con la vieja y la nueva teora del crecimiento Carlos Esteban POSADA Febrero 1994
econmico (porqu crece tan rpido China?)

26 Modelos econmicos de criminalidad y la posibilidad de Carlos Esteban POSADA Abril 1994
una dinmica prolongada.

27 Regmenes cambiarios, poltica macroeconmica y flujos Carlos Esteban POSADA Abril 1994
de capital en Colombia.

28 Comercio intraindustrial: el caso colombiano Carlos POMBO Abril 1994

29 Efectos de una bonanza petrolera a la luz de un modelo Hernando ZULETA Mayo 1994
de optimizacin intertemporal. J uan Pablo ARANGO

30 Crecimiento econmico y productividad en Colombia: Sergio CLAVIJ O J unio 1994
. una perspectiva de largo plazo (1957-1994)

31 Inflacin o desempleo: Acaso hay escogencia en Colombia? Sergio CLAVIJ O Agosto 1994

32 La distribucin del ingreso y el sistema financiero Edgar TRUJ ILLO CIRO Agosto 1994

33 La trinidad econmica imposible en Colombia: estabilidad Sergio CLAVIJ O Agosto 1994
cambiaria, independencia monetaria y flujos de capital libres

34 Dj vu?: tasa de cambio, deuda externa y esfuerzo Sergio CLAVIJ O Mayo 1995
exportador en Colombia.

35 La crtica de Lucas y la inversin en Colombia: Mauricio CRDENAS Septiembre 1995
nueva evidencia Mauricio OLIVERA

36 Tasa de Cambio y ajuste del sector externo en Colombia. Fernando MESA PARRA Septiembre 1995
Dairo ESTRADA

37 Anlisis de la evolucin y composicin del Sector Pblico. Mauricio Olivera G. Septiembre 1995
Manuel Fernando Castro Q.
Fabio Snchez T.

38 Incidencia distributiva del IVA en un modelo del ciclo de vida. J uan Carlos PARRA OSORIO Octubre 1995
Fabio J os SNCHEZ T.

39 Por qu los nios pobres no van a la escuela? Fabio SNCHEZ TORRES Noviembre 1995
(Determinantes de la asistencia escolar en Colombia) J airo Augusto NEZ M.

40 Matriz de Contabilidad Social 1992. Fanny M. VALDERRAMA Diciembre 1995
J avier Alberto GUTIRREZ

41 Multiplicadores de Contabilidad derivados de la Matriz J avier Alberto GUTIRREZ Enero 1996
de Contabilidad Social Fanny M. VALDERRAMA G.

42 El ciclo de referencia de la economa colombiana. Martin MAURER Febrero 1996
Mara Camila URIBE S.

43 Impacto de las transferencias intergubernamentales en la J uan Carlos PARRA OSORIO Marzo 1996
distribucin interpersonal del ingreso en Colombia.

44 Auge y colapso del ahorro empresarial en Colombia: Fabio SNCHEZ TORRES Abril 1996
1983-1994 Guillermo MURCIA GUZMN
Carlos OLIVA NEIRA

45 Evolucin y comportamiento del gasto pblico en Colombia: Cielo Mara NUMPAQUE Mayo 1996
1950-1994 Ligia RODRGUEZ CUESTAS



46 Los efectos no considerados de la apertura econmica en el Fernando MESA PARRA Mayo 1996
mercado laboral industrial. J avier Alberto GUTIRREZ

47 Un modelo de Financiamiento ptimo de un aumento Alvaro ZARTA AVILA J unio 1996
permanente en el gasto pblico:
Una ilustracin con el caso colombiano.

48 Estadsticas descriptivas del mercado laboral masculino y Roco RIBERO M. Agosto 1996
femenino en Colombia: 1976 -1995 Carmen J uliana GARCA B.

49 Un sistema de indicadores lderes para Colombia Martn MAURER Agosto 1996
Mara Camila URIBE
J avier BIRCHENALL

50 Evolucin y determinantes de la productividad en Colombia: Fabio SNCHEZ TORRES Agosto 1996
Un anlisis global y sectorial J orge Ivn RODRGUEZ
J airo NEZ MNDEZ

51 Gobernabilidad y Finanzas Pblicas en Colombia. Csar A. CABALLERO R Noviembre 1996

52 Tasas Marginales Efectivas de Tributacin en Colombia. Mauricio OLIVERA G. Noviembre 1996

53 Un modelo keynesiano para la economa colombiana Fabio J os SNCHEZ T. Febrero 1997
Clara Elena PARRA

54 Trimestralizacin del Producto Interno Bruto por el lado Fanny M. VALDERRAMA Febrero 1997
de la oferta.

55 Poder de mercado, economas de escala, complementariedades J un Mauricio RAMREZ Marzo 1997
intersectoriales y crecimiento de la productividad en la
industria colombiana.

56 Estimacin y calibracin de sistemas flexibles de gasto. J ess Orlando GRACIA Abril 1997
Gustavo HERNNDEZ

57 Mecanismos de ahorro e Inversin en las Empresas Pblicas Fabio SNCHEZ TORRES Mayo 1997
Colombianas: 1985-1994 Guilllermo MURCIA G.

58 Capital Flows, Savings and investment in Colombia: 1990-1996 J os Antonio OCAMPO G. Mayo 1997
Camilo Ernesto TOVAR M.

59 Un Modelo de Equilibrio General Computable con J uan Pablo ARANGO J unio 1997
Competencia imperfecta para Colombia. J ess Orlando GRACIA
Gustavo HERNNDEZ
J uan Mauricio RAMREZ

60 El clculo del PIB Potencial en Colombia. J avier A. BIRCHENALL J . J ulio 1997

61 Determinantes del Ahorro de los hogares. Explicacin Alberto CASTAEDA C. J ulio 1997
de su cada en los noventa. Gabriel PIRAQUIVE G.

62 Los ingresos laborales de hombres y Roco RIBERO Agosto 1997
mujeres en Colombia: 1976-1995 Claudia MEZA

63 Determinantes de la participacin laboral de hombres y Roco RIBERO Agosto 1997
mujeres en Colombia: 1976-1995 Claudia MEZA

64 Inversin bajo incertidumbre en la Industria Colombiana: J avier A. BIRCHENALL Agosto 1997
1985-1995

65 Modelo IS-LM para Colombia. Relaciones de largo plazo y J orge Enrique RESTREPO Agosto 1997
fluctuaciones econmicas.

66 Correcciones a los Ingresos de las Encuestas de hogares y J airo A. NEZ MNDEZ Septiembre 1997
distribucin del Ingreso Urbano en Colombia. J aime A. J IMNEZ CASTRO

67 Ahorro, Inversin y Transferencias en las Entidades Fabio SNCHEZ TORRES Octubre 1997
Territoriales Colombianas Mauricio OLIVERA G.
Giovanni CORTS S.


68 Efectos de la Tasa de cambio real sobre la Inversin Fernando MESA PARRA Octubre 1997
industrial en un Modelo de transferencia de precios. Leyla Marcela SALGUERO
Fabio SNCHEZ TORRES

69 Convergencia Regional: Una revisin del caso J avier A. BIRCHENALL Octubre 1997
Colombiano. Guillermo E. MURCIA G.

70 Income distribution, human capital and economic J avier A. BIRCHENALL Octubre 1997
growth in Colombia.

71 Evolucin y determinantes del Ahorro del Gobierno Central. Fabio SNCHEZ TORRES Noviembre 1997
Ma. Victoria ANGULO

72 Macroeconomic Perforrmance and Inequality in Colombia: Raquel BERNAL Diciembre 1997
1976-1996 Mauricio CRDENAS
J airo NEZ MNDEZ
Fabio SNCHEZ TORRES

73 Liberacin comercial y salarios en Colombia: 1976-1994 Donald ROBBINS Enero 1998

74 Educacin y salarios relativos en Colombia: 1976-1995 J airo NEZ MNDEZ Enero 1998
Determinantes, evolucin e implicaciones para Fabio SNCHEZ TORRES
la distribucin del Ingreso

75 La tasa de inters ptima Carlos Esteban POSADA Febrero 1998

76 Los costos econmicos de la criminalidad y la violencia en Edgar TRUJ ILLO CIRO Marzo 1998
Colombia: 1991-1996 Martha Elena BADEL

77 Elasticidades Precio y Sustitucin para la Industria J un Pablo ARANGO Marzo 1998
Colombiana. J ess Orlando GRACIA
Gustavo HERNNDEZ

78 Flujos Internacionales de Capital en Colombia: Ricardo ROCHA GARCA Marzo 1998
Un enfoque de Portafolio Fernando MESA PARRA

79 Macroeconoma, ajuste estructural y equidad en Colombia: J os Antonio OCAMPO Marzo 1998
1978-1996 Mara J os PREZ
Camilo Ernesto TOVAR
Francisco J avier LASSO

80 La Curva de Salarios para Colombia. Una Estimacin de las Fabio SNCHEZ TORRES Marzo 1998
Relaciones entre el Desempleo, la Inflacin y los Ingresos J airo NEZ MNDEZ
Laborales: 1984- 1996.

81 Participacin, Desempleo y Mercados Laborales en Colombia. J aime TENJ O G. Abril 1998
Rocio RIBERO M.

82 Reformas comerciales, mrgenes de beneficio y J un Pablo ARANGO Abril 1998
productividad en la industria colombiana J ess Orlando GRACIA
Gustavo HERNNDEZ
J un Mauricio RAMREZ

83 Capital y Crecimiento Econmico en un Modelo Alvaro ZARTA AVILA Mayo 1998.
Dinmico: Una presentacin de la dinmica
Transicional para los casos de EEUU y Colombia

84 Determinantes de la Inversin en Colombia: E videncia sobre Clara Helena PARRA J unio 1998.
el capital humano y la violencia.

85 Mujeres en sus casas: Un recuento de la poblacin Piedad URDINOLA C. J unio 1998.
Femenina econmicamente activa

86 Descomposicin de la desigualdad del Ingreso laboral Fabio SNCHEZ TORRES J unio 1998.
Urbano en Colombia: 1976-1997 J airo NEZ MNDEZ



87 El tamao del Estado Colombiano Indicadores y tendencias: Angela CORDI GALAT J unio 1998.
1976-1997

88 Elasticidades de sustitucin de las importaciones para la Gustavo HERNNDEZ J unio 1998.
economa colombiana.

89 La tasa natural de desempleo en Colombia Martha Luz HENAO J unio 1998.
Norberto ROJ AS

90 The role of shocks in the colombian economy Ana Mara MENNDEZ J ulio 1998.

91 The determinants of Human Capital Accumulation in Donald J . ROBBINS J ulio 1998.
Colombia, with implications for Trade and Growth Theory

92 Estimaciones de funciones de demanda de trabajo dinmicas Alejandro VIVAS BENTEZ J ulio 1998.
para la economa colombiana, 1980-1996 Stefano FARN
Dagoberto URBANO

93 Anlisis de las relaciones entre violencia y equidad. Alfredo SARMIENTO Agosto 1998.
Lida Marina BECERRA

94 Evaluacin terica y emprica de las exportaciones Fernando MESA PARRA Agosto 1998.
no tradicionales en Colombia Mara Isabel COCK
Angela Patricia J IMNEZ

95 Valoracin econmica del empleo domstico femenino Piedad URDINOLA C. Agosto 1998.
no remunerado, en Colombia, 1978-1993

96 Eficiencia en el Gasto Pblico de Educacin. Mara Camila URIBE Agosto 1998.

97 El desempleo en Colombia: tasa natural, desempleo cclico J airo NEZ M. Septiembre 1998.
y estructural y la duracin del desempleo: 1976-1998. Raquel BERNAL S.

98 Productividad y retornos sociales del Capital humano: Francisco A. GONZLEZ R. Noviembre 1998.
Microfundamentos y evidencia para Colombia. Carolina GUZMN RUIZ
Angela L. PACHN G.

99 Reglas monetarias en Colombia y Chile J orge E. RESTREPO L. Enero 1999.

100 Inflation Target Zone: The Case of Colombia: 1973-1994 J orge E. RESTREPO L. Febrero 1999.

101 Es creble la Poltica Cambiaria en Colombia? Carolina HOYOS V. Marzo 1999.

102 La Curva de Phillips, la Crtica de Lucas y la persistencia J avier A.BIRCHENALL Abril 1999.
de la inflacin en Colombia.

103 Un modelo macroeconomtrico para la economa J avier A.BIRCHENALL Abril 1999.
Colombiana J uan Daniel OVIEDO

104 Una revisin de la literatura terica y la experiencia Marcela ESLAVA MEJ A Abril 1999.
Internacional en regulacin

105 El transporte terrestre de carga en Colombia Marcela ESLAVA MEJ A Abril 1999.
Documento para el Taller de Regulacin. Eleonora LOZANO RODRGUEZ

106 Notas de Economa Monetaria. (Primera Parte) J uan Carlos ECHEVERRY G. Abril 1999.

107 Ejercicios de Causalidad y Exogeneidad para Ingresos Mauricio BUSSOLO Mayo 1999.
salariales nominales pblicos y privados Colombianos J ess Orlando GRACIA
(1976-1997). Camilo ZEA

108 Real Exchange Rate Swings and Export Behavior: Felipe ILLANES Mayo 1999.
Explaining the Robustness of Chilean Exports.

109 Segregacin laboral en las 7 principales ciudades del pas. Piedad URDINOLA Mayo 1999.

110 Estimaciones trimestrales de la lnea de pobreza y sus relaciones J airo NEZ MNDEZ Mayo 1999
con el desempeo macroeconmico Colombiano: (1977-1997) Fabio J os SNCHEZ T.



111 Costos de la corrupcin en Colombia. Marta Elena BADEL Mayo 1999

112 Relevancia de la dinmica transicional para el Alvaro ZARTA J unio 1999
crecimiento de largo plazo: Efectos sobre las tasas de
inters real, la productividad marginal y la estructura
de la produccin para los casos de EEUU y Colombia..

113 La recesin actual en Colombia: Flujos, Balances y J uan Carlos ECHEVERRY J unio 1999
Poltica anticclica

114 Monetary Rules in a Small Open Economy J orge E. RESTREPO L. J unio 1999

115 El Balance del Sector Pblico y la Sostenibilidad J uan Carlos ECHEVERRY J unio 1999
Fiscal en Colombia Gabriel PIRAQUIVE
Natalia SALAZAR FERRO
Ma. Victoria ANGULO
Gustavo HERNNDEZ
Cielo Ma. NUMPAQUE
Israel FAINBOIM
Carlos J orge RODRIGUEZ

116 Crisis y recuperacin de las Finanzas Pblicas lecciones Marcela ESLAVA MEJ A J ulio 1999
de Amrica Latina para el caso colombiano.

117 Complementariedades Factoriales y Cambio Tcnico Gustavo HERNNDEZ J ulio 1999
en la Industria Colombiana. J uan Mauricio RAMREZ

118 Hay un estancamiento en la oferta de crdito? J uan Carlos ECHEVERRY J ulio 1999
Natalia SALAZAR FERRO

119 Income distribution and macroeconomics in Colombia. J avier A. Birchenall J . J ulio 1999.

120 Transporte carretero de carga. Taller de regulacin. J uan Carlos ECHEVERRY G. Agosto 1999.
DNP-UMACRO. Informe final. Marcela ESLAVA MEJ A
Eleonora LOZANO RODRIGUEZ

121 Se cumplen las verdades nacionales a nivel regional? Nelly.Angela CORDI GALAT Agosto 1999.
Primera aproximacin a la construccin de matrices de
contabilidad social regionales en Colombia.

122 El capital social en Colombia. J ohn SUDARSKY Octubre 1999.
La medicin nacional con el BARCAS
Separata N 1 de 5

Separata N 2 de 5

Separata N 3 de 5

Separata N 4 de 5

Separata N 5 de 5

127 The Liquidity Effect in Colombia J orge Enrique RESTREPO Noviembre 1999.

128 Upac: Evolucin y crisis de un modelo de desarrollo. J uan Carlos ECHEVERRI G. Diciembre 1999.
Orlando Gracia
B. Piedad Urdinola

129 Confronting fiscal imbalances via intertemporal J uan Carlos ECHEVERRY G. Diciembre 1999.
Economics, politics and justice: the case of Colombia Vernica Navas-Ospina



130 La tasa de inters en la coyuntura reciente en Colombia. J orge Enrique RESTREPO Diciembre 1999.

131 Los ciclos econmicos en Colombia. Evidencia emprica: J orge Enrique RESTREPO Enero 2000.
(1977-1998) J os Daniel REYES PEa

132 Colombia'natural trade partners and its bilateral trade Hernn Eduardo VALLEJ O Enero 2000.
performance: Evidence from1960 to 1996

133 Los derechos constitucionales de prestacin y sus Luis Carlos SOTELO Febrero 2000.
implicaciones econmico- polticas. Los casos del
derecho a la salud y de los derechos de los reclusos

134 La reactivacin productiva del sector privado colombiano Luis Alberto ZULETA Marzo 2000.
(Documento elaborado para el BID)

135 Geography and Economic Development: Fabio J OS SNCHEZ T. Marzo 2000.
A Municipal Approach for Colombia. J airo NEZ MNDEZ

136 La evaluacin de resultados en la modernizacin Eduardo WIESNER DURN Abril 2000.
del Estado en Amrica Latina. Restricciones y
Estrategia para su desarrollo.

137 La regulacin de precios del transporte de carga por Marcela ESLAVA MEJ A Abril 2000.
carretera en Colombia.

138 El conflicto armado en Colombia. Yuri GORBANEFF J ulio 2000.
Una aproximacin a la teora de juegos. Flavio J COME

139 Determinacin del consumo bsico de agua potable J uan Carlos J UNCA SALAS Noviembre 2000.
subsidiable en Colombia.
.
140 Incidencia fiscal de los incentivos tributarios J uan Ricardo ORTEGA Noviembre 2000.
Gabriel Armando PIRAQUIVE
Gustavo Adolfo HERNNDEZ
Carolina SOTO LOSADA
Sergio Ivn PRADA
J uan Mauricio RAMIREZ

141 Exenciones tributarias: Gustavo A. HERNNDEZ Diciembre 2000
Costo fiscal y anlisis de incidencia Carolina SOTO LOSADA
Sergio Ivn PRADA

142 La contabilidad del crecimiento, las dinmicas transicionales y Alvaro ZARTA AVILA Febrero 2001
el largo plazo: Una comparacin internacional de 46 pases y
una presentacin de casos de economas tipo:
EEUU, Corea del Sur y Colombia.

143 Nos parecemos al resto del mundo? J uan Carlos ECHEVERRY G. Febrero 2001
El Conflicto colombiano en el contexto internacional. Natalia SALAZAR FERRO
Vernica NAVAS OSPINA

144 Inconstitucionalidad del Plan Nacional de Desarrollo: Luis Edmundo SUREZ S. Marzo 2001
causas, efectos y alternativas. Diego Mauricio AVILA A.

145 La afiliacin a la salud y los efectos redistributivos Hernando MORENO G. Abril 2001
de los subsidios a la demanda.

146 La participacin laboral: qu ha pasado y qu Mauricio SANTA MARA S. Abril 2001
podemos esperar? Norberto ROJ AS DELGADILLO

147 Anlisis de las importaciones agropecuarias en la Gustavo HERNNDEZ Mayo 2001
dcada de los Noventa. J uan Ricardo PERILLA

148 Impacto econmico del programa de Desarrollo Gustavo A. HERNNDEZ Mayo 2001
alternativo del Plan Colombia Sergio Ivn PRADA
J uan Mauricio RAMREZ


149 Anlisis de la presupuestacin de la inversin de la Nacin. Ulpiano AYALA ORAMAS Mayo 2001

150 DNPENSION: Un modelo de simulacin para estimar J uan Carlos PARRA OSORIO Mayo 2001
el costo fiscal del sistema pensional colombiano.

151 La oferta de combustible de Venezuela en la frontera Hernando MORENO G. J unio 2001
con Colombia: una aproximacin a su cuantificacin

152 Shocks fiscales y trminos de intercambio en el caso mer ZAK MUOZ. J ulio 2001
colombiano.

153 Demanda por importaciones en Colombia: Igor Esteban ZUCCARDI J ulio 2001
Una estimacin.

154 Elementos para mejorar la adaptabilidad del Mauricio SANTA MARA S. Agosto 2001
mercado laboral colombiano. Norberto ROJ AS DELGADILLO

155 Qu tan poderosas son las aerolneas colombianas? Ximena PEA PARGA Agosto 2001
Estimacin de poder de mercado de las rutas colombianas.

156 Elementos para el debate sobre una nueva reforma J uan Carlos ECHEVERRY Septiembre 2001
pensional en Colombia. Andrs ESCOBAR ARANGO
Csar MERCHN HERNNDEZ
Gabriel PIRAQUIVE GALEANO
Mauricio SANTA MARA S.

157 Agregando votos en un sistema altamente Francisco GUTIRREZ S. Octubre 2001
desistitucionalizado.

158 Eficiencia -X en el Sector Bancario Colombiano Carlos Alberto CASTRO I Noviembre 2001

159 Determinantes de la calidad de la educacin en Colombia. Alejandro GAVIRIA Noviembre 2001
J orge Hugo BARRIENTOS

160 Evaluacin de la descentralizacin municipal. Fabio SNCHEZ TORRES Noviembre 2001
Descentralizacin y macroeconoma

161 Impuestos a las transacciones: Implicaciones sobre el bienestar Rodrigo SUESCN Noviembre 2001
y el crecimiento.

162 Strategic Trade Policy and Exchange Rate Uncertainty Fernando MESA PARRA Noviembre 2001

163 Evaluacin de la descentralizacin municipal en Colombia. Alberto MALDONADO C. Noviembre 2001
Avances y resultados de la descentralizacin
Poltica en Colombia

164 Choques financieros, precios de activos y recesin Alejandro BADEL FLREZ Noviembre 2001
en Colombia.

165 Evaluacin de la descentralizacin municipal en J uan Gonzalo ZAPATA Noviembre 2001
Colombia. Se consolid la sostenibilidad fiscal de los Olga Luca ACOSTA
municipios colombianos durante los aos noventa. Adriana GONZLEZ

166 Evaluacin de la descentralizacin municipal en Ma. Mercedes MALDONADO Noviembre 2001
Colombia. La descentralizacin en el Sector de Gonzalo VARGAS FORERO
Agua potable y Saneamiento bsico.

167 Evaluacin de la descentralizacin municipal en Edgar GONZLEZ SALAS Diciembre 2001
Colombia. La relacin entre corrupcin y proceso
de descentralizacin en Colombia.

168 Evaluacin de la descentralizacin municipal en Carmen Helena VERGARA Diciembre 2001
Colombia. Estudio general sobre antecedentes, Mary SIMPSON
diseo, avances y resultados generales del proceso de
descentralizacin territorial en el Sector Educativo.

169 Evaluacin de la descentralizacin municipal en Edgar GONZLEZ SALAS Diciembre 2001
Colombia. Componente de capacidad institucional.


170 Evaluacin de la descentralizacin municipal en Ivn J ARAMILLO PREZ Diciembre 2001
Colombia. Evaluacin de la descentralizacin en
Salud en Colombia.

171 External Trade, Skill, Technology and the recent Mauricio SANTA MARA S. Diciembre 2001
increase of income inequality in Colombia

172 Seguimiento y evaluacin de la participacin de los Direccin de Desarrollo Diciembre 2001
resguardos indgenas en los ingresos corrientes de la Territorial
Nacin para el perodo 1998 y 1999.

173 Exposicin de Motivos de la Reforma de la Ley 60 de Direccin de Desarrollo Diciembre 2001
1993. Sector Educacin y Sector Salud Social

174 Transferencias, incentivos y la endogenidad del gasto Eduardo WIESNER DURN Enero 2002.
Territorial. Seminario internacional sobre Federalismo
fiscal - Secretara de Hacienda de Mxico, CEPAL,
ILPES, CAF - Cancn, Mxico. 18-20 de Mayo de 2000

175 Cualificacin laboral y grado de sindicalizacin Flavio J COME LIVANO Enero 2002.

176 OFFSETS: Aproximacin terica y experiencia Nohora Eugenia POSADA Febrero 2002.
Internacional. Yaneth Cristina GIHA TOVAR
Paola BUENDA GARCA
Alvaro J os CHVEZ G.

177 Pensiones: conceptos y esquemas de financiacin Csar Augusto MERCHN H. Febrero 2002.

178 La erradicacin de las minas antipersonal sembradas Yilberto LAHUERTA P. Marzo 2002.
en Colombia - Implicaciones y costos- Ivette Mara ALTAMAR

179 Economic growth in Colombia: A reversal of "Fortune"? Mauricio CRDENAS S. Marzo 2002.

180 El siglo del modelo de desarrollo. J uan Carlos ECHEVERRY G Abril 2002.

181 Metodologa de un Modelo ARIMA condicionado J uan Pablo HERRERA S. Abril 2002.
para el pronstico del PIB. Gustavo A. HERNNDEZ D.

182 Cules son los colombianos con pensiones Csar Augusto MERCHN H. Abril 2002.
privilegiadas?

183 Garantas en carreteras de primera generacin. J os Daniel REYES PEA. Abril 2002
Impacto econmico.

184 Impacto econmico de las garantas de la Nacin J os Daniel REYES PEA. Abril 2002
en proyectos de infraestructura.

185 Aproximacin metodolgica y cuantitativa Ricardo PREZ SANDOVAL Abril 2002
de los costos econmicos generados por el Andrs VERGARA BALLN
problema de las drogas ilcitas en Colombia Yilberto LAHUERTA P
(1995 - 2000)

186 Tendencia, ciclos y distribucin del ingreso J uan Carlos ECHEVERRY G. Abril 2002.
en Colombia: una crtica al concepto de Andrs ESCOBAR ARANGO
"modelo de desarrollo" Mauricio SANTA MARA S.

187 Crecimiento y ciclos econmicos. Efectos de los choques Igor Esteban ZUCCARDI H. Mayo 2002.
de oferta y demanda en el crecimiento colombiano

188 A general equilibriummodel for tax policy Thomas Fox RUTHERFORD. Mayo 2002.
analysis in Colombia. The MEGATAX model. Miles Kenneth. LIGHT

189 A dynamic general equilibriummodel for tax Thomas Fox RUTHERFORD. Mayo 2002.
policy analysis in Colombia. Miles Kenneth. LIGHT
Gustavo HERNNDEZ

190 Sistema Bancario Colombiano: Alejandro BADEL FLREZ. J unio 2002.
Somos eficientes a nivel internacional?


191 Poltica para mejorar el servicio de transporte pblico DNP: DIE- GEINF J unio 2002.
urbano de pasajeros.

192 Two decades of economic and social development Carlos Eduardo VLEZ J unio 2002.
in urban Colombia: a mixed outcome Mauricio SANTA MARA,
Natalia MILLAN
Bndicte DE LA BRIERE
World Bank (LAC/PREM)

193 Cules colegios ofrecen mejor educacin en Colombia? J airo NEZ MNDEZ J unio 2002.
Roberto STEINER
Ximena CADENA
Renata PARDO
CEDE, U. de los Andes

194 Nuevos enfoques de poltica regional en Amrica Latina: Edgard MONCAYO J . J ulio 2002.
El caso de Colombia en perspectiva histrica.
Las nuevas teoras y enfoques conceptuales sobre el
desarrollo regional. Hacia un nuevo paradigma?
Separata 1 de 7

Las polticas regionales: Un enfoque por generaciones
Separata 2 de 7

Un mundo de geometra variable:
Los territorios que ganan y los que pierden.
Separata 3 de 7

Enfoques tericos y evidencias empricas sobre
el desarrollo regional en Colombia.
Separata 4 de 7

Las polticas regionales en Colombia.
Separata 5 de 7

Tendencias del desarrollo regional en Colombia.
-Polarizacin, apertura y conflicto-
Separata 6 de 7

Marco conceptual y metodolgico para el diseo
de una nueva generacin de polticas de desarrollo
regional en Colombia.
Separata 7 de 7

201 Viabilidad de los servicios pblicos domiciliarios Mauricio SANTA MARA Agosto 2002
en la ciudad de Santiago de Cali. Francisco BERNAL
Carlos David BELTRN
David VILLALBA

202 Optimal enforcement: Finding the right balance J aime Andrs ESTRADA Agosto 2002

203 Does corporate governance matter for developing Paula ACOSTA MRQUEZ Agosto 2002
countries?
An overview of the Mexican case.



204 Reflexiones sobre el proceso de paz del gobierno de Andrs Camilo LEGUZAMO Agosto 2002
PASTRANA y las FARC-Ep: (1998-2002)

205 Contratacin pblica en Colombia y teora Econmica. Yuri GORBANEFF Septiembre 2002.

206 Does planning pay to performin infrastructure? Daniel TORRES GRACIA Septiembre 2002.
Deconstructing the babylon tower on the planning/
performance relationships in energy, telecommunications
and transport sectors colombian case.

207 A dynamic analysis of household decision making in urban Fabio SNCHEZ TORRES Octubre 2002.
Colombia, 1976-1998 J airo Nez Mndez
Changes in household structure, human capital
and its returns, and female labor force participation .

208 Inversin pblica sectorial y crecimiento Alvaro A. PERDOMO S. Octubre 2002.
Econmico: Una aproximacin desde la
Metodologa VAR.

209 Impacto macroeconmico y distributivo del Impuesto de mer ZAK MUOZ. Octubre 2002.
seguridad democrtica. Oscar Mauricio VALENCIA

210 Empleo informal y evasin fiscal en Colombia. J airo A. NEZ MNDEZ Octubre 2002.

211 Diagnstico del programa de reinsercin en Colombia: Maria Eugenia PINTO B. Noviembre 2002.
mecanismos para incentivar la desmovilizacin voluntaria Andrs VERGARA BALLN
individual. Yilberto LAHUERTA P.

212 Economas de escala en los hogares y pobreza. Francisco J avier LASSO V. Noviembre 2002.
Tesis para optar el ttulo de Magster en Teora y
Poltica Econmica de la Universidad Nacional
de Colombia.

213 Nueva metodologa de Encuesta de hogares. Francisco J avier LASSO V. Noviembre 2002.
Ms o menos desempleados?

214 Una aproximacin de la Poltica Comercial Estratgica Ricardo E. ROCHA G.. Diciembre 2002.
para el ingreso de Colombia al ALCA. J uan Ricardo PERILLA
Ramiro LPEZ SOLER

215 The political business cycle in Colombia Allan DRAZEN Enero 2003.
on the National and Regional level. Marcela ESLAVA
University of Maryland

216 Balance macroeconmico de 2002 y Direccin de Estudios Enero 2003.
Perspectivas para 2003. Econmicos

217 Women workers in Bogot s Informal sector: J airo G. ISAZA CASTRO Febrero 2003.
Gendered impact of structural adjustment
Policies in the 1990s.
Tesis para optar el ttulo de Magster en
Estudios de Desarrollo del Instituto de Estudios
Sociales de The Hague- Holanda.

218 Determinantes de la duracin del desempleo en Carlos E. CASTELLAR P. Marzo 2003.
el rea metropolitana de Cali 1988-1998. J os Ignacio URIBE G.
(Documento elaborado por profesores del Depar-
tamento de Economa de la Universidad del Valle)

219 Conflicto, violencia y actividad criminal en Colombia: Fabio SNCHEZ TORRES Marzo 2003.
Un anlisis espacial. Ana Mara DAZ
Michel FORMISANO

220 Evaluating the impact of SENA on earnings and Alejandro GAVIRIA URIBE Abril 2003.
Employment. J airo A. NEZ MNDEZ

221 Un anlisis de la relacin entre inversin extranjera y Erika Bibiana PEDRAZA Abril 2003.
Comercio exterior en la economa colombiana.


222 Free Trade Area of the Americas. An impact Miles Kenneth. LIGHT Abril 2003.
Assessment for Colombia. Thomas Fox RUTHERFORD

223 Construccin de una Matriz de Contabilidad Social Gustavo Adolfo HERNNDEZ Mayo 2003.
Financiera para Colombia.

224 Elementos para el anlisis de Incidencia tributaria. Andrs ESCOBAR Mayo 2003.
Gustavo HERNNDEZ
Gabriel PIRAQUIVE

225 Desempeo econmico por tipo de4 firma: Erika Bibiana PEDRAZA Mayo 2003.
Empresas nacionales vs. Grandes y pequeas receptoras
De inversin extranjera.

226 El balance estructural del Gobierno Central en Colombia. Natalia SALAZAR J unio 2003.
Diego PRADA

227 Descentralizacin y Equidad en Amrica Latina: Eduardo WIESNER J unio 2003.
Enlaces Institucionales y de Poltica

228 Ciclos econmicos y mercado laboral en Colombia: Fabio SNCHEZ TORRES J ulio 2003.
quin gana ms, quin pierde ms? 1984-2000. Luz Magdalena SALAS
Oskar NUPIA

229 Efectos de un acuerdo bilateral de libre comercio con Direcciones de Estudios J ulio 2003.
Estados Unidos Econmicos y de
Desarrollo Empresarial
del DNP

230 Pobreza, crimen y crecimiento regional en Colombia. Ricardo Ernesto ROCHA G. Agosto 2003.
(Versin para comentarios) Hermes Fernando MARTNEZ

231 Contracciones leves y profundas: J orge E. SENZ CASTRO Agosto 2003.
Efectos asimtricos sobre la pobreza J uan Pablo HERRERA S.
El caso colombiano 1984-2000. Oscar E. GUZMN SILVA

232 Sistema de modelos multivariados para la proyeccin Carlos Alberto CASTRO I. Septiembre 2003.
del Producto Interno Bruto

233 Yet another lagging, coincident and leading index for Carlos Alberto CASTRO I. Septiembre 2003.
The Colombian economy.

234 Posibles implicaciones de la legalizacin del consumo, Andrs VERGARA BALLN Septiembre 2003.
Produccin y comercializacin de las drogas en Colombia. Yilberto LAHUERTA P.
Sandra Patricia CORREA

235 Impactos econmicos generados por el uso de minas Yilberto LAHUERTA P. Septiembre 2003.
antipersonal en Colombia.

236 Cunto duran los colombianos en el desempleo y en el Hermes Fernando MARTNEZ Septiembre 2003.
Empleo?: Un anlisis de supervivencia.

237 Barreras a la entrada en el mercado de compras del Fernando J . ESTUPIAN Octubre 2003.
Sector pblico.
Un anlisis de estructura de mercado en la perspectiva
De la negociacin del Area de Libre Comercio de las
Amricas.

238 Relative labor supply and the gender wage Gap: Diego F. ANGEL-URDINOLA Octubre 2003.
Evidence for Colombia and the United States. Quentin WODON

239 The gender wage Gap and poverty in Colombia. Diego F. ANGEL-URDINOLA Octubre 2003.
. Quentin WODON

240 The impact on inequality of raising the minimumwage: Diego F. ANGEL-URDINOLA Octubre 2003.
Gap- narrowing and reranking effects. Quentin WODON



241 Inversin y restricciones crediticias en la dcada de Catalina DELGADO G. Octubre 2003.
los 90 en Colombia.

242 Metodologas de estimacin del balance estructural: Luis Edgar BASTO M.. Noviembre 2003.
Una aplicacin al caso colombiano.

243 The cost of disinflation in Colombia : J os Daniel REYES P.. Noviembre 2003.
-A sacrifice Ratio Approach-

Coeficiente de Sacrificio

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Figure 17. Sacrifices Ratio under a SVAR Approach

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