T SCH SOS

2



X HI M

Ci cch
Ch ngha t bn
Ton cu





GEORGE
SOROS

T SCH SOS
2



GEORGE
SOROS


X HI M

Ci cch
Ch ngha t bn
Ton cu


Ngi dch: Nguyn Quang A






GEORGE
SOROS


OPEN SOCIETY

Reforming
Global Capitalism





PublicAffairs
New York
2000




Mc lc


Li gii thiu v
Li cm n vii
Dn nhp ix

Phn I: Khung kh khi nim

1. T duy v Thc ti 3
2. Ph phn Kinh t hc 38
3. Phn thn trong cc th trng ti chnh 58
4. Phn thn trong lch s 91
5. X hi m nh mt L tng 116
6. Vn cc gi tr x hi 138


Phn II: Thi im Hin ti trong Lch s

7. H thng T bn Ch ngha Ton cu 167
8. Khng hong Ti chnh 1997-1999 208
9. Ai Mt nc Nga? 235
10. Mt Cu trc Ti chnh Ton cu Mi 265
11. Cu trc Chnh tr Ton cu 301
12. Lin minh X hi M 330

Kt lun 360
Ch mc 361
Li Gii thiu


Bn c cm trn tay cun sch th tm
*
ca t sch SOS
2
.
Cun X hi M [Ci cch Ch ngha t bn Ton cu] ca
George Soros. y l cun th hai ca Soros trong t sch.
kin v Soros rt khc nhau. C ngi ln n ng nh k
thao tng th trng chng khon, k gy ra khng hong ti
chnh, k tham gia lt . Nhiu ngi ca ngi ng nh mt
thin ti ti chnh, ngi lm t thin ln nht hnh tinh. ng
cho mnh l ngi duy nht trn th gii i ngn chn khng
hong mt cch c mc ch v c t chc. Cun sch ny s
gip bn c hiu k hn v ng v v cc tng ca ng.
Ngi ta ni nhiu v hi nhp kinh t v nn kinh t ton
cu. C ch th trng thnh cng xut sc trong gii
phng ti nng kinh doanh v to ra ca ci. Ch ngha t bn
da vo c ch th trng. Nu ch da vo c ch th trng
v nhn mnh thi qu n cc gi tr th trng, ch ngha t
bn khng th m bo t do, dn ch, v php tr; c th, v
n dn n nhng thm ho nh hai cuc Chin tranh Th
gii, cc cuc khng hong ti chnh. V sao chng xy ra?
Lm sao c th trnh c nhng thm ho nh vy, hay ch
t lm nh bt tc ng tai ho ca chng? l nhng vn
Soros quan tm. V x hi m l mt x hi c th lm
c iu .
Khi nim X hi m c Henri Bergson dng u tin
nm 1932, v Karl Popper pht trin v lm cho khi nim
c bit n rng ri trong cng trnh trit hc ca ng xut
bn nm 1943. Soros chu nh hng mnh ca Karl Popper.

*
Cc quyn trc gm:
1. J. Kornai: Con ng dn ti nn kinh t th trng, Hi Tin hc Vit Nam 2001,
Nh Xut bn Vn ho Thng tin (NXB VHTT) 2002.
2. J. Kornai: H thng X hi ch ngha, NXB Vn ho Thng tin 2002
3. J. Kornai- K. Eggleston: Chm sc sc kho cng ng, NXB VHTT 2002
4. G. Soros: Gi kim thut ti chnh, sp xut bn
5. H. de Soto: S b n ca t bn, sp xut bn
6. J. E. Stiglitz: Ch ngha x hi i v u?sp xut bn
7. F.A. Hayek: Con ng dn ti ch nng n, sp xut bn
Li Gii thiu
__________________________________________________

vi
C trn lnh vc thc tin v trit l ng khng ngng c v
cho x hi m.
Theo Bergson x hi c t chc theo cc nguyn l b
lc l x hi ng; x hi c t chc theo cc nguyn l ph
qut l x hi m. Theo Popper x hi m b e do bi tt c
cc h t tng cho l mnh c chn l cui cng. Soros ng
. Cc h t tng b lc khng cn c coi l c s t
chc x hi hin i, v sau Chin tranh Th gii II v nht l
sau 1989 cc h t tng cho l mnh c chn l cui cng
mt uy tn, ch ngha t bn hin i l biu hin b mo m
v x hi m. X hi m, theo Soros, da vo s tha nhn
rng chn l cui cng l ngoi tm vi ca con ngi, da
vo tnh c th sai ca con ngi, da vo s tha nhn l
nhng kin trc do con ngi to ra nht thit c sai st mt
cch c hu; n l mt x hi da trn cc nguyn l ph qut
song khng bao gi hon ho, lun m ra cho s ci thin.
ng pht hin ra s khng ng b gia nn kinh t ton cu
v dn xp chnh tr ton cu, s tn ti ca cc quc gia c
ch quyn. ng kin ngh lp lin minh x hi m thc y
pht trin x hi m tng nc v t nn mng cho mt x
hi m ton cu.
Cun sch c th b ch cho cc hc gi, cc nh hoch
nh chnh sch, v tt c nhng ai quan tm n nhng vn
chnh tr v kinh t th gii.
Bn ting Vit khc nguyn bn ch mi ch thch ca
tc gi c nh li bng s (nguyn bn c nh du
bng cc k hiu khc nhau). Tt c cc ch thch nh du
sao (
*
) l ca ngi dch. Bn dch chc cn nhiu thiu st
mong bn c thng cm, lng th, v ch bo; xin lin h
theo a ch Tp ch Tin hc v i sng, 54 Hong Ngc
Phch H Ni [25/B7 Nam Thnh Cng], hoc qua in th
thds@hn.vnn.vn hay nqa@netnam.vn

H Ni 4-2004
Nguyn Quang A

Li cm n


y l ln u tin khung kh quan nim m ti bt u pht
trin t nhng ngy sinh vin nhn c s ch ph phn
nghim tc. l mt kinh nghim khch l v gii thot theo
mt cch no . Ti bit n tt c nhng ngi quan tm
n phin bn trc hay phin bn hin thi ca cun sch
ny.
Antole Kaletsky thc s l bin tp ca cun The Crisis
of Global Capitalism: Open Society Endangered [Khng
hong ca Ch ngha T bn Ton cu: X hi M b lm
nguy], gip ti t chc ni dung v lm cho n d tip cn
hn; Roman Frydman gip c bit v khung kh quan
nim; Leon Botstein nu ra nhiu im l th v chng ti
c vi cuc tho lun si ni; Anthony Giddens cho
kin v nhiu hn mt phin bn ca bn tho; William
Newton-Smith lm cho ti hiu ng v mt s im trit
hc; v John Gray khin ti c li cun Great
Transformation [Bin chuyn V i] ca Karl Polanyi.
Nhng ngi khc c cc kin hu ch bao gm Robert
Kuttner, John Simon, Jeffrey Friedman, Mark Malloch
Brown, Arminio Fraga, Tom Glaessner, Aryeh Neier, Daniel
Kahneman, Byron Wien, v Richard Medley.
Trong chun b phin bn ny, ti c s gip c gi
tr ca Adam Posen Institute for International Economics
[Vin Kinh t hc Quc t], mc d ng khng h phi chu
trch nhim v cc quan im ca ti. Yehuda Elkana t
chc mt nhm nghin cu Central European University
[i hc Trung u] ti Budapest, v ti nhn c gp
bng vn bn t Lrnd Ambrus-Lakatos, Fabrizio Coricelli,
John Gray, Jnos Kis, Mria Kovcs, Petr Lom, v Istvn
Rv. Katie Jamieson tm tt bin bn bng vn phong sng
sa quen thuc ca c. Les Gelb t chc mt cuc tho
lun Council on Foreign Relations [U ban Quan h Nc
ngoi] ti New York m t ti hc c rt nhiu. Nhng
ngi tham d bao gm Elizabeth Colagiuri, Morris
Li cm n
__________________________________________________

viii

Goldstein, Nancy Goodman, Roger Kubarych, Lawrence
Korb, Michael Mandelbaum, William Luers, Walter Mead,
Peter Osnos, David Phillips, Adam Posen, Gideon Rose,
Geoff Shandler, Dimitri Simes, Benn Steil, v Fareed Zakaria.
Mort Abramowitz, Martti Ahtisaari, Antony Lester, Charles
W. Maynes, Aryeh Neier, Stewart Paperin, Alex Rondos,
Cornelio Sommaruga, v Joseph Stiglitz tham gia mt
tho lun cui tun ti nh ti. Lord Lester nu ra mt s
vn quan trng lin quan n nh ngha ca ti v x hi
m m ti khng gii quyt c ng tho mn. Ti
mun cm n tt c nhng ngi chu kh c bn tho
cc giai on khc nhau ca s tin trin ca n. H qu ng
c th lit k, nhng ti phi cm t Benjamin Barber,
Leon Botstein, Bill Clapp, Jacques de Larosire, Jeffrey
Friedman, Roman Frydman, Ekaterina Genieva, Antole
Kaletsky, Alex Lupis, Aryeh Neier, Joseph Nye, Andrei
Shleifer, John Simon, v F. van Zyl Slabbert, gi gp
bng vn bn cho ti. Justin Leites c mt vi gi c gi
tr pht cui cng.
Ti rt hi lng vi Peter Osnos v nhm ca ng nh
xut bn Public Affairs v ti bit n Kris Dahl ngh
ng.
Yvonne Sheer nh my i nh my li bn tho khng
bit bao nhiu ln, i chiu cc ti liu tham kho, v hot
ng nh tng qun l d n. Ti khng th lm xong m
khng c c.
Dn nhp





y l mt cun sch v trit hc thc tin: N cung cp mt
khung kh quan nim c nh dng nh mt ch dn cho
hnh ng. Ti c khung kh hng dn trong c cc
hot ng kim tin ln t thin, v ti tin rng n cng p
dng cho x hi ni chung: N cung cp cc nguyn tc ch
o cho mt x hi m ton cu. y l mt s m ng
y tham vng. thc hin n, ti s phi cp nhiu lnh
vc v di chuyn trn nhiu mc: trit hc, thc tin, cng
cng v c nhn.

mc thc tin, ti thit lp mt mng li cc qu t
thin nhm c v cho cc x hi m. Mng li ny bao trm
tt c cc nc ca ch Soviet trc kia v n lan sang
nhng phn khc ca th gii: Nam Phi, mi nc Nam
chu Phi, mi su nc Ty Phi, Haiti, Guatemala, Min
in, v gn y hn Indonesia. Cng c mt Vin X hi
m [Open Society Institute] Hoa K. Mi qu quc gia c
hi ng qun tr v nhn vin ring ca mnh nhng ngi
quyt nh nhng u tin ring ca h v chu trch nhim v
cc hot ng ca qu trong nc mnh. Chng h tr x hi
dn s; chng cng c gng lm vic vi chnh quyn trung
ng v a phng bi v mt chnh ph dn ch v hiu qu
l mt thnh phn ct yu ca mt x hi m, nhng chng
thng bt ho vi chnh ph hoc vi mt s hot ng ca
n. Trong mt s nc, ni bt Slovakia v Croatia, cc qu
thnh cng trong huy ng x hi dn s chng li ch
p bc. Belarus v Min in, cc qu b cm v hot ng
t bn ngoi. Serbia, n hot ng trong nhng hon cnh
gieo neo. Ngoi ra, chng ti c mt mng li cc chng
trnh trong nhng lnh vc m mng li tham gia tch cc
nht: gio dc bc cao v gio dc ph thng; thanh nin;
Dn nhp
__________________________________________________

x

php tr, t php v hnh php, bao gm c nh t; ngh thut
v cc nh ch vn ho; th vin, xut bn, v Internet; cc
phng tin thng tin; cc tng lp dn c d b tn thng
nh nhng ngi thiu nng tm thn; cc sc tc thiu s,
vi nhn mnh c bit n nhng ngi di gan; sc kho
cng ng, lm dng ru v ma tu; v vn vn.
Ti c c s cng nhn rng ri, thc ra b cng iu,
nh mt loi guru ti chnh no , nhng nhng thnh tch
ca ti do gi cc quan im v cc vn chnh tr v an
ninh c cng nhn t r hn. Thc ra, ti ch l mt trong
nhiu ngi hnh ngh ti chnh; song ti hu nh l ngi
duy nht thc hnh ngn chn khng hong mt cch c mc
ch v c t chc.
Trong cun sch ny ti ch trng rng cc nn dn ch
trn th gii nn thit lp mt lin minh vi mc ch kp, th
nht, c v cho pht trin cc x hi m ring tng nc
v, th hai, cng c lut php v cc nh ch quc t cn
thit cho mt x hi m ton cu.
Chng ta sng trong mt th gii c c trng bi trao
i t do v hng ho v dch v v thm ch cn hn bi s
di chuyn t do ca vn. Kt qu l, li sut, t gi hi oi,
v gi c phiu nhiu nc khc nhau gn kt cht ch vi
nhau, v cc th trng ti chnh c nh hng gh gm n
tnh hnh kinh t mi ni. Vn ti chnh c c mt v tr
c n. Vn d lu ng hn cc yu t sn xut khc, v vn
ti chnh thm ch cn lu ng hn cc dng khc ca vn.
Ton cu ho cc th trng ti chnh lm gim kh nng
ca cc nc ring bit nh thu v iu tit vn v n c
th chuyn sang ch khc. Cn c vo vai tr quyt nh m
vn ti chnh quc t ng trong vn may ca cc nc ring
bit, nn khng phi khng thch hp ni v mt h thng
t bn ch ngha ton cu.
Chng ta c th ni v thng li ca ch ngha t bn trn
th gii, song chng ta cha th ni v thng li ca dn ch.
C mt s khng xng i nghim trng gia tnh hnh chnh
tr v kinh t thnh hnh trn th gii ngy nay. Chng ta c
Dn nhp
__________________________________________________



xi
mt nn kinh t ton cu, song nhng dn xp chnh tr vn
da vng chc vo ch quyn quc gia. Lm sao c th dung
ho nhu cu ca mt x hi ton cu vi cc quc gia c ch
quyn? l vn ct yu i mt vi chng ta ngy nay.
Ch ngha t bn v dn ch khng nht thit gn b cht
ch vi nhau. C tng quan no : Tng cc tiu chun
sng v s hnh thnh mt tng lp trung lu c xu hng to
p lc cho quyn t do v dn ch; chng cng c xu hng
ng h n nh chnh tr ln hn. Song mi lin h cn xa mi
l t ng. Cc ch p bc khng ni lng s km kp ca
chng v quyn lc mt cch t nguyn, v chng thng
c tr gip v tip tay bi cc gii kinh doanh, c nc
ngoi v ni a. Chng ta c th thy iu ny nhiu nc,
c bit nhng ni dnh n ti nguyn thin nhin nh du
hay kim cng. C l mi e do ln nht i vi quyn t do
v dn ch trn th gii ngy nay l t s hnh thnh cc lin
minh ti li gia chnh ph v gii kinh doanh.
y khng phi l hin tng mi. N thng c gi l
ch ngha pht xt, v n c trng cho Italy ca Mussolini v
mc khc nhau cho nc c ca Hitler, Ty Ban Nha
ca Franco, B o Nha ca Salazar. Ngy nay n c cc
hnh thc khc nhau, nhng n c th c pht hin ra
Peru ca Fujimori, Zimbabwe ca Mugabe, Min in ca
SPDC, Malaysia ca Mahathir, ch nhc ti vi trng hp.
Lm bi ri hn, s sp ca ch ngha cng sn cng
dn ti mt lin minh ti li gia gii kinh doanh ln v
chnh ph nhiu nc, gm c Nga. C th thy din mo
b ngoi ca qu trnh dn ch, song quyn lc nh nc
c hng trch lm li cho cc gii t nhn. Cc nc dn
ch khng ch nhiu n tnh hnh chnh tr thnh hnh
cc nc khc: Cc u tin khc thng c a v cao hn.
Th nhng nhn dn sng trong cc ch p bc cn s gip
t bn ngoi; nhiu khi l cu tinh duy nht ca h.
Ch ngha t bn rt thnh cng trong to ra ca ci, song
chng ta khng th da vo n m bo t do, dn ch, v
php tr. Kinh doanh c ng c l li nhun; n khng c
Dn nhp
__________________________________________________

xii

thit k bo v cc nguyn l ph qut. Hu ht nhng
ngi kinh doanh l cc cng dn ngay thng; nhng iu
khng lm thay i s thc l kinh doanh c tin hnh v
li lc t nhn ch khng v li ch cng cng. Trch nhim
hng u ca ban qun l l vi cc ch doanh nghip, khng
phi vi mt thc th u m no c gi l li ch cng
cng - mc d cc doanh nghip thng c gng, hoc t nht
lm ra v, hot ng theo cch c tinh thn v ci chung v
iu l tt cho doanh nghip. Nu chng ta chm nom cho
cc nguyn l ph qut nh quyn t do, dn ch, php tr,
chng ta khng th ph mc chng cho s chm sc ca cc
lc lng th trng; chng ta phi thit lp cc nh ch khc
no bo v chng.
Tt c iu ny l qu hin nhin pht biu, th m phi
c ni ra v c tn iu c tin mt cch rng ri l, cc th
trng s lo liu cho mi nhu cu ca chng ta. N thng
c gi l laissez-faire th k th mi chn, song ti
tm ra c mt t hay hn: thuyt th trng chnh thng.
Nhng ngi theo thuyt th trng chnh thng cho rng li
ch cng c phc v tt nht khi ngi dn c php theo
ui t li ca ring h. y l mt tng hp dn, nhng
ch l mt na s tht. Cc th trng l thch hp tuyt vi
cho theo ui li ch t nhn, nhng chng khng c thit
k chm lo cho li ch chung. Duy tr bn thn c ch th
trng l mt li ch chung nh vy. Nhng ngi tham gia
th trng cnh tranh khng phi duy tr cnh tranh m l
thng; nu c th, chng s loi b cnh tranh.
Bo v li ch chung thng l nhim v ca nh nc quc
gia. Nhng quyn lc ca quc gia co li do cc th trng
vn ton cu c m rng. Khi vn t do di chuyn, n c
th b nh thu v iu tit ch vi ri ro xua ui n i. V
vn l thit yu cho to ra ca ci, cc chnh ph phi tho
mn cc nhu cu ca n, thng lm hi n nhng cn nhc
khc. Xua ui vn c th gy hi hn l nh thu v iu
tit c th gy ra. im ny mi y c lm r bi s
Dn nhp
__________________________________________________



xiii
tht bi ngon mc ca Oscar Lafontaine, b trng ti chnh
c, khi ng th tng gnh nng thu ln kinh doanh.
Theo cch no y, l mt s pht trin ng th v.
Doanh nghip t nhn tt hn nh nc v to ra ca ci, v
cnh tranh t do qui m ton cu dn n mt s gia tc
v nng sut. Hn na, nh nc thng lm dng quyn lc
ca mnh; ton cu ho cho mt mc t do c nhn m
khng nh nc no c th cung cp.
Nhng c mt tri. Nng lc ca nh nc thc hin cc
chc nng m cng dn k vng n b suy yu. y s
khng phi l mt nguyn nhn ng lo lng nu c th trng
mong cc th trng t do chm lo mi nhu cu, nhng
r rng khng phi vy. Mt s nhu cu tp th ca chng ta
hu nh qu hin hin phi nhc n: ho bnh v an ninh,
lut v trt t, quyn con ngi, bo v mi trng, v yu t
no v cng bng x hi. Cc gi tr th trng ch by t
ci m mt ngi tham gia sn lng tr cho ngi khc trong
trao i t do v khng by t cc li ch chung ca h. Kt
qu l, cc gi tr x hi ch c phc v bi nhng dn xp
x hi v chnh tr, cho d chng t hiu qu hn cc th
trng.
Ngay c phc v cc li ch c nhn, c ch th trng c
nhng hn ch v khuyt tt nht nh m nhng ngi theo
thuyt th trng chnh thng b qua. Mt l, cc th trng
ti chnh l bt n nh mt cch c hu. L thuyt cnh tranh
hon ho coi cc ng cung v cu l cho trc mt cch
c lp. Ni hai ng gp nhau, ta c cn bng. Nhng cc
gi thit theo khi nim cn bng c xy dng him khi
c tho mn trong th gii thc t. Trong lnh vc ti chnh
chng l khng th t c. Cc th trng ti chnh tm
cch chit khu tng lai m tng lai li tu thuc vo hin
ti n c chit khu ra sao. Cn c vo s hiu bit khng
hon ho ca nhng ngi tham gia, kt qu l khng xc
nh mt cch c hu. Nh th, ngc vi tng v mt c
ch t cn bng, tnh n nh ca cc th trng ti chnh cn
c bo v bng chnh sch cng.
Dn nhp
__________________________________________________

xiv

ng tic, chnh sch cng cng khng hon ho, v v th
lch s cc th trng ti chnh b ngt qung bi nhng khng
hong. Tuy nhin, bng mt qu trnh th v sai, cc nc
cng nghip tin tin to ra cc ngn hng trung ng v
nhng khung kh iu tit rt thnh cng gi s bt n
nh trong nhng gii hn c th chu ng c. S sp
ln ln cui cc nc cng nghip tin tin xy ra vo cc
nm 1930. Cc nc ngoi vi ca h thng t bn ton cu
vo v tr khng tt bng: Khng hong ti chnh 1997-1999
gy ra tn ph mt s th trng mi ni cng nhiu nh
i Suy thoi ca cc nm 1930 gy ra Hoa K.
H thng ti chnh quc t khng cn c th c iu tit
trn c s quc gia. Mt tp cc nh ch quc t c thit
lp vo cui Chin tranh Th gii II Bretton Woods nm
1945, nhng chng c thit k cho mt th gii khng c
lun chuyn vn t do. Cc nh ch ny dng cm c
thch nghi vi hon cnh thay i, th nhng chng khng
c kh nng gi nhp vi s pht trin nhanh chng mi y
ca cc th trng ti chnh quc t. Chng khng ngn
c s ly nhim trong khng hong ti chnh quc t 1997-
1999. May thay, cc nc trung tm ca h thng t bn
ton cu khng b nh hng (thc ra, h thm ch cn
c li t tai ho ngoi vi), v nn kinh t th gii phc
hi nhanh hn so vi c th d kin cao im ca khng
hong. Kh nng mau phc hi xut sc ny cng c nim
tin vo nng lc t hiu chnh ca cc th trng ti chnh, v
thay cho tng cng Qu Tin t Quc t (IMF), quyn lc v
nh hng ca n li b cho suy dn. iu ny s khin nn
kinh t th gii d b tn thng hn trong khng hong tip
theo, nu v khi n xut hin. Ngh rng chng ta s khng c
mt khng hong khc l i coi thng lch s.
Yu im trong cu trc chnh tr quc t vt qu khuyt
im trong cu trc ti chnh quc t. Thm kch ca Chin
tranh Th gii II dn n vic thit lp Lin Hip Quc,
c thit k duy tr ho bnh v an ninh trn th gii.
ng tic, thit k khng ngang vi mc ch cao thng.
Dn nhp
__________________________________________________



xv
Ngay khi Lin Hip Quc ra i th gii v thnh hai khi
i chi nhau; mt do Hoa K, mt do Lin X lnh o. Hai
bn kt vo cuc chin ch t, c v qun s v thc h;
th nhng mi bn u nhn ra rng n phi tn trng cc li
ch sng cn ca bn kia, v c hai u c kh nng ph hu
bn kia bng v kh ht nhn. iu ny bin Chin tranh Lnh
thnh mt cng c n nh da vo quan nim d tn song
hng mnh v s m bo hu dit ln nhau (MAD).
S cn bng MAD gia ng v Ty chm dt vi s sp
ni b ca ch Soviet. c mt giy pht lch s khi
Lin Hip Quc c th bt u hot ng nh n c thit k
ban u, th m c hi tut mt khi cc nn dn ch
phng Ty khng thng nht c vi nhau v x tr
khng hong Bosnia ra sao. H thng tr nn bt n nh.
Kinh nghim ca hai cuc chin tranh th gii chng t
rng mt h thng da vo cc quc gia c ch quyn khng
m bo ho bnh v n nh. V cc nh nc ch quyn
thng lm dng quyn lc ca h, mt s gim st v nhng
quyn lc phi l mt din tin ng hoan nghnh. n
im ny tnh cm ng h th trng, chng nh nc l hon
ton c bin minh. Nhng s yu i ca nh nc ch
quyn phi i ng vi s tng cng ca cc nh ch quc
t. y l ch m thuyt th trng chnh thng, phn i nh
chc trch quc t cng nhiu nh nh chc trch quc gia,
ng cn ng. Khng th ph nhn, thuyt th trng chnh
thng khng phi l th phm duy nht; nim tin lu di vo
ch quyn quc gia l th phm khc. Hoa K thm ch gn b
vi ch quyn ca n mnh hn hu ht cc quc gia khc.
Do l siu cng qun s duy nht cn li v l cng quc
kinh t mnh nht, n sn lng tham d vo cc dn xp, nh
T chc Thng mi Th gii, m ca cc th trng trong
khi li cung cp s bo h no cho cc gii th lc, nhng
n ht sc chng bt k vi phm no n ch quyn ca ring
n trong cc lnh vc khc. N sn lng can thip vo cng
vic ni b ca cc nc khc song li khng sn sng phc
tng cc qui tc m n tm cch p t ln ngi khc.
Dn nhp
__________________________________________________

xvi

Trong khi Hoa K coi mnh nh ngi gi vng cc nguyn
l cao thng, nhng ngi khc ch thy s ngo mn quyn
lc. C th gy sc khi ni, nhng ti tin rng chnh thi
n phng ca Hoa K to thnh mt mi e do nghim
trng cho ho bnh v thnh vng ca th gii. Th m Hoa
K c th d dng tr thnh mt lc lng hng hu cho iu
thin, n gin bng chuyn t cch tip cn n phng
sang a phng. Th gii cn mt s qui tc v tiu chun
ng x. Nu Hoa K sn sng tn trng cc qui tc, n c th
dn u trong to ra chng.
ng tic, s khng a ch ngha a phng ca Hoa K
khng phi khng c bin minh. Hu ht cc nh ch quc t
khng hot ng tt. l v chng l cc hip hi cc quc
gia, m nh Hng y Richelieu ni, cc quc gia khng c
cc nguyn l, ch c nhng li ch. iu ny c biu l
trong ng x ca h trong phm vi cc t chc quc t. Mi
thiu st ca mt b my quan liu quc gia, u c nhn
ln trong b my quan liu quc t. Cc nh ch quc t nh
Lin Hip Quc l khng ph hp bo v cc nguyn l
ph qut. iu ny c th thy trong thnh tch bo v nhn
quyn ca Lin Hip Quc.
Ti tin rng c th khin cc nh ch quc t hot ng tt
hn ch vi s gip ca x hi dn s. C th ng l cc
quc gia khng c cc nguyn l, nhng cc quc gia dn ch
p ng li mong mun ca cng dn ca mnh. Nu cc cng
dn c cc nguyn l, h c th p t chng ln chnh ph
ca h. l v sao ti ch trng mt lin minh cc quc gia
dn ch: N c th c s tham gia tch cc ca x hi dn s
m bo l cc chnh ph vn trung thnh vi cc nguyn
l ca lin minh. l ni kh khn ln nht n nu. Nh cc
cuc biu tnh gn y Seattle v Washington chng t,
c th huy ng x hi dn s phn i cc nh ch quc
t; phi tm c cch huy ng n ng h chng.
Lin minh s c hai mc tiu: th nht, tng cng lut
quc t v cc nh ch quc t; th hai, cng c dn ch
trong phm vi ring tng nc. Hai mc tiu, tt nhin, gn
Dn nhp
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xvii
vi nhau: S thc y dn ch phi c thc hin bi cc
nh ch quc t. Khng mt quc gia n nht c th c
u thc cho vic bo v cc nguyn l ph qut. Mi khi c
xung t gia cc nguyn l ph qut v t li, t li chc
thng th. im ny c nhng ngi sng lp hiu r
khi h ngh ra Hin php Hoa K.
Th m c v pht trin dn ch trn khp th gii chnh l
li ch ca tt c cc nn dn ch. Trong x hi ton cu l
thuc ln nhau ngy nay hu ht xung t khng xy ra gia
cc quc gia m l trong ni b cc quc gia. Cc nn dn ch
khng th dung th s vi phm nhn quyn qui m ln, v
sm hay mun chng c th b ko vo cc xung t nh vy,
nh xy ra Nam T. Ngay c nu h t chi b ko vo, h
phi i mt vi dng ngi t nn v cc h qu c hi khc.
C s mu thun no v p t dn ch t bn ngoi. S
mu thun c th c trnh ch nu s can thip mang li li
ch v v vy c chp nhn mt cch t nguyn. mc
ln nht c th, s can thip phi dng nhng khuyn khch
v cam kt xy dng.
Mt khi mt xung t n ra, s rt kh gii quyt. Phng
nga khng hong khng th bt u sm. Nhng trong
cc giai on u kh nhn din ci g s dn n khng
hong. l v sao cch tt nht phng nga khng hong
l c v s pht trin ca ci m ti gi l cc x hi m.
l ci mng li cc Qu X hi M ca ti c gng lm.
Bng to ra cc x hi m, kh nng v khng hong cn can
thip t bn ngoi c th gim i rt nhiu. V nu can thip
trng pht l khng th trnh khi n c bin minh d dng
hn khi trc c cam kt mang tnh xy dng.
Hin nay chng ta da qu nhiu vo cc bin php trng
pht. Lin minh hiu qu duy nht ca cc quc gia dn ch l
mt lin minh qun s - T chc Hip c Bc i Ty
Dng (NATO). Chng ta phi b sung cho NATO bng mt
lin minh chnh tr. V s pht trin ca x hi m lin h cht
ch vi s thnh vng kinh t, lin minh phi hng ti hnh
ng khng nh.
Dn nhp
__________________________________________________

xviii


Cc ngh ny c bit thch ng hin nay, sau can thip
ca NATO Kosovo. Ti tin can thip l cn thit, nhng n
phi c bin minh bng m bo mt tng lai tt hn cho
khu vc. iu ny ch c th t c nu Lin hip chu u
c th a cc nc trong khu vc n gn nhau hn v a
chng n gn chu u hn. tng ny hin nay c chp
nhn rng ri, v n c biu l Hip c n nh cho
ng Nam u. Lm cho n c kt qu phi l u tin cao
nht ca Lin hip chu u. N chc chn l u tin cao nht
ca ti.
i t ci c bit sang ci chung, ti ch trng mt n lc
c phi hp bi cc nn dn ch pht trin c v cho
pht trin dn ch nhng phn km pht trin ca th gii.
N phi c dng tr gip k thut v khuyn khch kinh t.
Kinh t hc v hot ng chnh tr khng th tch ri nhau.
Amartya Sen a ra l l thuyt phc rng pht trin phi
c nh ngha bng quyn t do, ch khng bng tng sn
phm quc ni (GDP).
1

Thnh vin ca lin minh s bao gm Hoa K v Lin hip
chu u, v mt s lng ti hn cc nc dn ch t ngoi
vi ca h thng t bn khc i th lin minh c th ho ra l
mt cng c thng tr v bc lt. Thnh vin c vn nht s
l Hoa K, v hin ti n khng sn lng tun th cc qui tc
m n tm cch p t ln ngi khc. N chng c g s
loi lin minh m ti quan tm, v mt lin minh nh vy
khng th hot ng m khng c Hoa K tham gia; tuy nhin,
n s i hi s nh hng li trit v chnh sch ca Hoa
K t ch ngha n phng sang ch ngha a phng.
Ti nhn ra l xut ca mnh tri vi thuyt th trng
chnh thng. Vin tr nc ngoi tht bi t hi chu Phi
v gn y Lin X v cc quc gia k v, v n cng e
do gy tht bi cho Hip c n nh. S thc rng chng
khng c kt qu khng c ngha l chng ta phi t b

1
Amartya Sen, Development as Freedom (New York: Alfred A. Knopf, 1999). Ting Vit
Pht trin l Quyn t do (Vin QLKT TW, NXB Thng k 2002).
Dn nhp
__________________________________________________



xix
tng. ng hn, chng ta phi xem xt cc l do tht bi v
ngh ra nhng cch hay hn. Vin tr nc ngoi, nh n
c qun l hin nay, qu thng xuyn c hng ti tho
mn nhu cu ca cc nh ti tr, khng phi nhu cu ca
nhng ngi nhn. Ti c th khng nh, da trn nhng
kinh nghim ca ring ti cc nc nh Nga, rng vin tr
bn ngoi c th c hiu qu.
H thng t bn ton cu to ra mt sn chi rt khng
u. L hng gia giu v ngho ngy cng rng hn. iu
ny l nguy him, v mt h thng khng a ra hi vng v li
ch no cho nhng ngi thua nht nh b ph v bi cc
hnh ng tuyt vng. Ngc li, nu chng ta a ra nhng
khuyn khch kinh t cho cc nc hng hi tn dng chng,
chng ta to ra mt cng c hng hu ngn nga khng
hong. Cc khuyn khch nui dng s pht trin kinh t v
chnh tr; s thc rng chng c th c rt li to n by
ci c th c dng chng cc chnh ph ngoan c.
ng tic, cu trc ti chnh ton cu thnh hnh ngy nay
hu nh khng to s h tr no cho nhng ngi km may
mn. Cc xu hng hin thi i theo hng ngc li. Sau
khng hong ti chnh va qua, nh l p t k lut th
trng ln hn. Nhng nu cc th trng l bt n nh mt
cch c hu, p t k lut th trng c ngha l p t s bt
n nh v x hi c th chu s bt n nh n bao nhiu?
By gi chng ta c cc th trng ti chnh ton cu, chng
ta cng cn mt ngn hng trung ng ton cu v cc nh
ch ti chnh quc t khc m s mnh r rng ca chng l
gi cho cc th trng ti chnh vng vng, khng trng trnh.
Nhng bt k hot ng ca ngi cho vay cui cng no
cng gy ra him ho o c no , v cuc chin hin thi
ca nhng ngi theo thuyt th trng chnh thng l loi tr
him ho o c. Kt qu l gim qui m IMF. Khng nghi
ng g, iu s gim nguy c cho vay thi qu i vi cc
th trng mi ni, nhng theo ti khng hong tip theo c
kh nng n t hng ngc li: t dng vn chy ti cc
nc chm pht trin khng tho ng.
Dn nhp
__________________________________________________

xx

U ban Meltzer do Quc hi Hoa K lp ra kin ngh bin
Ngn hng Th gii t mt t chc cho vay thnh mt c
quan cp tr cp cho cc nc ngho nht th gii. l mt
tng tuyt vi, nhng cch m U ban Meltzer c gng l
gim qui m Ngn hng Th gii v tr li vn cha dng cho
cc c ng trong mt s chuyn giao ln ngun lc t ngi
ngho sang ngi giu. Ti tin l vn cha c dng phi
c s dng c ch hn bng cch tng cc hot ng cho
tr cp v cp bo lnh ca Ngn hng. Nhng khng phi
l ci U ban Meltzer ngh ti.
Ti by t l l tng t lin quan n T chc Thng mi
Th gii. C nhu cu khn thit v cc tiu chun lao ng v
bo v mi trng. Song cc nc ngho khng th sc
lm cc vic ny. Thay cho cc bin php trng pht, phi c
khuyn khch cho cc nc ngho c kh nng tun theo.
Mt lin minh ca cc nn dn ch c th c nhiu hnh
thc khc nhau. N c th th ci cch cc nh ch hin hnh
nh Ngn hng Th gii hay thm ch Lin Hip Quc, hoc
n c th hot ng mt cch phi chnh thc hn v cp
cc lnh vc vn hay cc nc c th. N c th c c hi
tt hn ci t Lin Hip Quc so vi bt k n lc trc
y no, chnh xc v n c th hot ng hoc trong phm vi
Lin Hip Quc hoc ngoi Lin Hip Quc nu cc quc gia
thnh vin khc t chi i cng. Nhng lin minh c th
thnh cng ch nu cc thnh vin ca n c th thng nht
gia h vi nhau. V iu c ngha l thit lp mt s qui
tc c s cho mt x hi m ton cu.

Thut ng "x hi m-open society" do Henri Bergson a
ra nm 1932, khi ng xut bn cun sch The Two Sources of
Morality and Religion [Hai Ngun ca o c v Tn gio]
ca ng. Theo Bergson, mt ngun ca o c l b lc,
ngun kia l ph qut. Loi trc to ra x hi ng, loi sau
to ra x hi m. Khi nim c Karl Popper pht trin
thm, ngi l l trong cun sch The Open Society and Its
Enemies [X hi M v Nhng K th ca N] ca mnh rng
Dn nhp
__________________________________________________



xxi

x hi m b e do bi cc thc h t tng ph qut cho
l mnh c chn l cui cng. ng cho khi nim x hi m
mt nn tng nhn thc lun - c th l, s hiu hit khng
hon ho c hu ca chng ta. Cc thc h t tng ph
qut, cho l mnh c chn l cui cng, l mi e do x hi
m v i hi ca h c th c p t ch bng cng bc.
Cch din t ca Bergson c ch hiu cc xung t sc
tc nh Nam T; cch din t ca Popper c ch lm
sng t cc mi e do do cc ch ton tr gy ra, nh
nc c Nazi v Lin X. Trong v sau Chin tranh Th
gii II, khi nim x hi m c th c hiu d dng nht
bng i snh n vi cc x hi ng da trn c s cc h t
tng ton tr nh ch ngha pht xt v cng sn. iu ny
ng cho n s sp ca ch Soviet nm 1989.
K t , tnh hnh thay i. S sp ch ngha cng
sn khng t ng dn n s thit lp x hi m. S phn
i n gin gia x hi m v ng khng cn p dng c
na. X hi m b e do t mt hng khng ng: s theo
ui t li khng kim ch. Chng ta quen ngh v quyn
lc - dng mt chnh ph p bc hay mt thc h i chn
l cui cng v tm cch p t bng cc bin php cng bc
nh cn tr ch yu cho mt x hi m. By gi ho ra l
thiu quyn lc v thiu s c kt x hi c th cng lm suy
yu ngang vy. S tan r ca Lin X chng t rng mt
nh nc yu cng c th l mt mi e do i vi t do.
2

Vi t cch mt sinh vin sau Chin tranh Th gii II, ti
st sng chp nhn khi nim x hi m ca Popper. Nh mt
ngi do thi Hungary u tin thot khi s tiu dit ca
Nazi bng chp nhn mt nhn dng gi v sau trn khi
ch ngha cng sn bng di c, ti hc c khi cn tr
loi t chc x hi no thnh hnh l quan trng n th no.
Cch phn i gia x hi m v ng ca Popper t ra ht
sc quan trng i vi ti. N khng ch lm sng t thiu
st cn bn ca cc h t tng ton tr m n cng soi sng

2
Stephen Holmes, What Russia Teaches Us Now: How Weak States Threaten Freedom,
The American Prospect (July-August 1997): 30-39.
Dn nhp
__________________________________________________

xxii

mt s vn trit hc c bn. Chnh trit hc ca ng ch
dn ti thit lp mng li cc Qu X hi M ca ti.
Ti l mt ngi tham gia tch cc trong cch mng qut
sch h thng Soviet, v kinh nghim buc ti tin hnh
xem xt li k lng khi nim x hi m. iu dn ti n
cc kha cnh trit hc ca cun sch ny.

Ti bt u cun sch vi vic kho st quan h gia t duy
v thc ti. Ti khng ln n ch ngha hin thc hay ch
ngha l tng; ng hn, ti tm s cn i gia hai th.
ng l c mt thc ti, song n khng hon ton c th tip
cn c cho tr tu chng ta. Quan nim ca chng ta v th
gii c th xp x th gii nh n l, nhng chng bao gi c
th hon ton tng ng vi n. Thay v bn ci bn cht ca
thc ti hay chn l cui cng, ti coi nh im xut pht ca
mnh l s hiu bit ca chng ta v th gii trong chng ta
sng l khng hon ho mt cch c hu. Chng ta l mt
phn ca th gii chng ta tm cch hiu, v s hiu bit
khng hon ho ca chng ta ng mt vai tr tch cc trong
hnh thnh cc s kin trong chng ta tham gia vo. C
mt tng tc hai chiu gia s hiu bit ca chng ta v cc
s kin ny ci a mt yu t bt nh vo c hai. N bo
m rng chng ta khng th t c s cho cc quyt nh ca
mnh ln tri thc v rng cc hnh ng ca chng ta c th
c cc h qu khng d tnh. Hai tc ng nui dng ln
nhau. Ti gi c ch phn hi hai chiu ny l tnh phn thn
v n l hn tng ca khung kh quan nim ca ti.
Khi nim phn thn hu nh hin nhin, th m n c cc
h lu khng c chp nhn mt cch ph bin. N to ra
mt s chia tch gia cc khoa hc t nhin v x hi v n
lm xi mn cc gi thit m l thuyt kinh t da vo: ng
x duy l ni chung, v cc k vng duy l ni ring. N a ra
mt din gii v cc th trng ti chnh hot ng ra sao khc
hon ton cch l thuyt kinh t xut. l mt trng hp
ni khung kh quan nim ca ti c cc h lu thc tin.
Dn nhp
__________________________________________________



xxiii

Trong cun sch ny ti i qu s ph phn cc tng
c chp nhn ni chung. Ti s dng cc khi nim v tnh
c th sai (fallibility) v tnh phn thn trnh by mt l
thuyt v lch s. Ti din gii cc th trng ti chnh nh
mt qu trnh lch s v ti dng chng nh mt phng th
nghim kim tra l thuyt ca mnh. Th nghim ca ti
khng to ra cc kt qu tt nh so snh c vi cc phng
trnh xc nh cn bng trong l thuyt kinh t. iu ny lm
cho din gii ca ti l khng th chp nhn c i vi cc
nh kinh t hc, song ti dm chc rng tt hn i chp nhn
rng cc th trng ti chnh l khng th tin on c mt
cch c hu hn l tn trng mt l thuyt sai.
Ti din gii lch s nh mt qu trnh phn thn trong
cc quyt nh c thin kin ca nhng ngi tham gia tng
tc vi mt thc ti vt qu s lnh hi ca h. Tng tc c
th l t-tng cng hay t-hiu chnh. Mt qu trnh t-tng
cng khng th i mi m khng gp cc gii hn do thc
ti t ra, nhng n c th i lu v xa gy ra nhng
thay i quan trng trong th gii thc. Nu v khi n tr nn
khng th duy tr c, th n c th khi ng mt qu trnh
t tng cng theo chiu ngc li. Cc chui boom-bust
(hng thnh bt pht- ln bi) nh vy quan st c mt cch
r rng trong cc th trng ti chnh, nhng phm vi, trng
, v din tin thc s ca chng vn khng chc chn.
Khi ti th p dng m hnh boom-bust vo lch s ni
chung, din gii ca ti tr thnh mang phong cch ring v
gng go hn. Tuy nhin, n c th lm sng t, min l n
khng c coi l qu nghim tc. ng tic, ti khng
lun theo li khuyn ca chnh mnh, nh c gi s thy.
Nghim trng hn, ti c trnh by mt s tng v x hi
nn c t chc ra sao. Ti pht trin khi nim v x hi
m, mt hip hi ca cc c nhn t do tn trng cc quyn
ca nhau trong phm vi mt khung kh lut php.
3


3
Bryan Magee, Confession of a Philosopher: A Personal Journey Through Western
Philosophy from Plato to Popper (New York: Random House, 1999), p. 119.
Dn nhp
__________________________________________________

xxiv

Thuyt th trng chnh thng khng hon ton chng x
hi m theo cch cc thc h ton tr nh ch ngha pht xt
v cng sn chng; ng hn, n th hin mt s mo m
v khi nim, mt s cng iu qu ng mt trong cc kha
cnh ca n. iu chng lm cho n t nguy him hn.
Thuyt th trng chnh thng gy nguy him cho x hi m
mt cch khng c bng din gii sai cc th trng hot
ng ra sao v cho chng vai tr chi phi qu ng.
Nhng ngi theo thuyt th trng chnh thng tin vo
quyn t do c nhn, ci l hn tng ca x hi m, nhng
h cng iu gi tr ca c ch th trng. H tin rng cc th
trng hiu qu m bo phn b ngun lc tt nht v bt k
can thip no t nh nc hay t cc nh ch quc t, u c
hi. V thuyt th trng chnh thng tr nn rt c nh
hng, ngy nay n to thnh mt mi e do ln hn i vi
x hi m ton cu so vi ch ngha cng sn hay ch ngha
x hi, v cc h t tng hon ton mt tn nhim.
Vi t cch mt ngi ch trng x hi m, ti mun lm
r rng ti khng chng ch ngha t bn per se (t n). Khi
nim x hi m v nn kinh t th trng lin kt mt thit vi
nhau, v ch ngha t bn ton cu a chng ta n gn
mt x hi m ton cu. Nhng cc th trng l khng hon
ho. Chng c th ch phc v cho cc nhu cu c nhn; chm
lo n nhu cu x hi vt qu phm vi ca chng. V ngay
c nh cc nh phn b ngun lc, chng cng khng hon
ho: Cc th trng ti chnh l bt n nh mt cch c hu.
iu khng c ngha chng ta phi t b ch ngha t bn;
ng hn, chng ta phi c gng sa cc nhc im ca n.
Ch ngha cng sn tm cch hu b c ch th trng
v p t kim sot tp th ln mi hot ng kinh t. Thuyt
th trng chnh thng tm cch hu b ra quyt nh tp th
v p t uy quyn ti cao ca cc gi tr th trng ln trn
tt c cc gi tr chnh tr v x hi. C hai thi cc u sai.
Chng ta cn nhn ra rng tt c mi kin trc ca con ngi
u c sai st. S hon thin nm ngoi tm vi ca chng ta.
Chng ta phi t tho mn vi ci tt th nh: mt x hi
Dn nhp
__________________________________________________



xxv
khng hon ho t m cho s ci thin. Ch ngha t bn
ton cu rt cn ci thin.

y khng phi l mt tm tt y ca cun sch ca
ti. Th d, ti khng nhc n s phn bit m ti a ra
gia lm lut v chi theo lut. Nhng ni cho bit l
cun sch nhm bao ph nhiu lnh vc - c l qu nhiu lnh
vc. C th hiu qu hn tp trung vo t im hn, nhng
khung kh quan nim gn b vi nhau v ti thy kh a ra
mt im m khng c cc im khc. Ti coi iu ny l mt
im yu trong cu trc cun sch, v di nh sng ca gi
thuyt cng tc ca ti v tnh c th sai trit , khng chc
l tt c cc im ca ti c sc thuyt phc ngang nhau.
im yu khng l c hu trong l l, v cc im khc
nhau khng ph thuc logic vo nhau; ng hn, n l kt qu
ca s a thch c nhn ca ti. mc c nhn, cun sch
ny l cng trnh ca i ti. Ti bt u n khi ti l mt
sinh vin v vn cha hon thnh n. Ti khng sn lng
bung tha n. Nhiu im ti nu ra y ti a ra trc
kia, nhng ti vn cm thy ti c th lm cho chng tt hn.
Ti c mt ng cu bn v, Tamas Losonczy, mt ho s
theo xu hng biu hin tru tng, sut i ng Hungary.
Ch ngha biu hin tru tng khng c php
Hungary cho n kh gn y. Kt qu l, ng cm thy
phi buc lp li cc ch chnh ca ng trong tt c cc bc
v ca ng. iu ny lm cho tranh ca ng ln xn v phc
tp hn tranh ca cc bc thy ca xu hng biu hin tru
tng phng Ty. Ti cm nhn v trit hc theo cch nh
ng v hi ho, v ti s l ti mc cng triu chng: Ti cm
thy buc phi lp li nhng l l ti a ra trong cc cun
sch trc, v ti khng cm thy rng cc im ca ti c
trnh by khc chit. Ti c th sai. Tuyn b ca ti rng tnh
phn thn khng c nhn ra trong l thuyt kinh t c th
ng vo nm 1987, khi ti xut bn cun The Alchemy of
Finance [Gi kim thut Ti chnh] ln u tin, nhng ti
b mt s kinh t gia ph bnh rng iu khng cn ng
Dn nhp
__________________________________________________

xxvi

na. Th m ti c th thy t ph bnh ca h l im ch
yu ca tnh phn thn - c th l, cc th trng ti chnh l
khng th tin on c mt cch c hu ni chung vn
cha c chp nhn, v h trch ti do khng to ra mt l
thuyt c kh nng a ra cc tin on hp l.
S thc rng ti nhi cc tng chnh sut c cuc i
vo cun sch ny chng lm cho n d c. Ti hi vng, tuy
vy, l ng n lc. mc bn lun cng khai, ti tin ti c
mt s ng gp xng ng. Ngoi khi nim v x hi m v
xut cho mt lin minh cc nn dn ch, ti nhc ti:

khi nim v tnh phn thn;
gi thuyt cng tc v tnh c th sai trit ;
nh gi s tch gia cc khoa hc t nhin v x hi;
ph phn l thuyt cn bng trong kinh t hc v phc
ho mt h thuyt mi;
tho lun cch m cc gi tr th trng xm nhp vo
cc lnh vc m ng ra chng khng thuc v;
ph phn thuyt th trng chnh thng;
khi nim v cc tnh hung xa cn bng;
khi nim lm lc mu m;
din gii cc th trng ti chnh nh mt qu trnh lch
s trong kt qu khc vi nhng k vng;
phn bit gia lm lut v chi theo lut v nh
rng trong tham gia chnh tr (khc bit vi tham gia th
trng) chng ta phi c ch dn bi quan nim ca
chng ta v li ch chung d cho nhng ngi khc
khng lm th;
kho st t m s khc bit gia trung tm v ngoi vi
trong h thng t bn ton cu;
kho st cu trc ti chnh v chnh tr ton cu mi.

Nhng kh khn do cun sch ny l ra b trm trng hn
bi cch n c vit. Khi nguyn n l mt bi bo ti
cng b s thng Hai 1997 ca The Atlantic Monthly di
Dn nhp
__________________________________________________



xxvii
tiu The Capitalist Threat: Mi e do T bn ch ngha.
S thc rng mt nh t bn nguyn mu i ph phn ch
ngha t bn gy ra s xn xao ng k, v ti quyt
nh m rng bi bo thnh mt cun sch. Khi ti ang vit,
mt cuc khng hong ti chnh ln, thuc loi ti cnh
bo chng li, n ra thng By 1997, v ti cm thy ti c
ci g khn cp v quan trng ni v ch . Khi Nga v
n ni a ca n thng Tm 1998, ti ngh h thng t bn
ton cu sp tan v, v v th ti quyt nh vi a cun
sch i in.
Cun sch c xut bn thng Mi Mt 1998 vi tiu
The Crisis of Global Capitalism: Open Society Endangered
[Khng hong ca Ch ngha T bn Ton cu: X hi M b
Lm nguy]. Khi n lc chun b ln xut bn ba mm, ti
bt u sa li n, v s sa li mau chng tr nn quan trng
n mc t cch nh mt cun sch mi. Ti quyt nh
xut bn n di mt tiu mi.
Nhn li, ti sai khi tin on thm ho, v by gi ti
hi ng mt ra. Nhn li t vin cnh ca nm 2000, hnh nh
l ti phm phi hai tnh nhm ch yu. Mt l s nh gi
thp nng lc ca cc nh chc trch ti chnh ngn chn
tai ho khi n e do trung tm ca h thng t bn ton cu.
Rt cuc, ti nhn mnh s cch bit gia trung tm v
ngoi vi. S thc rng Cc D tr Lin bang thnh cng
trong bo v nn kinh t Hoa K trong khi Qu Tin t Quc t
tht bi trong bo v cc nn kinh t ngoi vi l mt s
biu hin ca s cch bit . Ti phi c kh nng thy
trc iu .
Tnh ton sai th hai l b qua nh hng ca cch
mng cng ngh. R rng, n l mt nhn t ch yu cho
php trung tm gi sch nhng rc ri ngoi vi. c mt
Internet boom xy ra ng thi vi bust cc th trng mi
ni. Lm sao ti c th b qua iu ? Ti b lm ng
bi s thc rng nhng tin b cng ngh - ng st, in,
in thoi xy ra trong th k mi chn, thi k bn thn
n l mt giai on ca ch ngha t bn ton cu. D sao
Dn nhp
__________________________________________________

xxviii

cng ngh cng gy ra cc boom v bust trong nhng ngy
y. y l mt sai lm ln trong phn tch ca ti, sai lm m
ti khng th c kh nng xo i m khng lm gi t liu
lch s. Ti c th, tuy vy, tha nhn n.
Bt chp nhng sai lm ny, ti cm thy c gi tr trong
cch tip cn ca ti bin minh cho vic sa cun sch.
Ln u tin trong i ti, cc tng ca ti nhn c s
ch ph phn, v ti c li nhiu t n. V s tha
nhn sai lm nm tm ca cch tip cn ca ti, ti a tt
c ph phn m ti coi l hp l vo. Ti cng chuyn tm
quan trng t ti chnh sang chnh tr. Cun The Crisis of
Global Capitalism thu ht s ch ch yu v ci ti ni
v khng hong ti chnh. iu ny c th hiu c theo
quan im ca tnh hnh thnh hnh lc v s kht ting
ca ti nh nh u c ti chnh. Tho lun ca ti v ci ti
gi l khu vc phi th trng gi ra t phn ng hn nhiu.
Khi ti sa cun sch, ti cm thy rt cp thit trau chut
cc tng ca ti v cu trc chnh tr v an ninh ton cu
mc su hn nhiu.
Vic sa lm ny sinh mt vn : Nu ti sa i phn
tch ban u ca ti v khng hong 1997-1999, ti s gi
mo t liu lch s. Do , trong phn ca cun sch cp
n khng hong 1997-1999, ti quyt nh nguyn vn
bn ban u v ch ra u ti sa li. Gii php ny lm
cho cu trc ca cun sch cng knh hn.
b cho iu ny, ti mun cung cp mt l trnh n
gin. Trong Chng 1 ti bt u vi tnh phn thn v tnh
c th sai. iu ny dn ti n tho lun v phng php
khoa hc Chng 2.
Trong Chng 3 ti kim tra tnh hp l v tnh tho ng
ca tnh phn thn trong phng th nghim ca cc th trng
ti chnh, da ch yu vo ni dung ly t cun The Alchemy
of Finance ca ti trc y.
Trong Chng 4 ti th pht trin mt l thuyt v lch s
da vo quan h phn thn gia t duy ca nhng ngi tham
gia v cc s kin trong h tham gia vo. Tnh c th sai
Dn nhp
__________________________________________________



xxix
lm cho cn bng l khng th, li ba kh nng: gn cn
bng ca x hi m; bt cn bng tnh ca x hi ng; v bt
cn bng ng ca s thay i ch mang tnh cch mng.
iu ny dn n tho lun v x hi m nh mt l tng
Chng 5. Trong Chng 6 ti tho lun vn cc gi tr x
hi v a ra s phn bit gia lm lut v chi theo lut.
Khung kh l thuyt hon tt y.
Phn II p dng khung kh l thuyt cho thi im hin ti
ca lch s. Nhng thi gian khng ng yn. Nh nhc
ti trc, ti bt u vit The Crisis of Global Capitalism
trc khi khng hong ti chnh 1997-1999 n ra; ti vi a
sch i in ng khi khng hong ln nh im v ngh li
v sa li n cn thn k t : Tt c iu ny c phn nh
trong vn bn. Chng 7 cho mt tng quan mang tnh ph
phn v h thng t bn ton cu. Chng 8 cp khng
hong ti chnh 1997-1999. Chng 9 xem xt li tht bi ca
Nga tin hnh chuyn i t x hi ng sang x hi m.
Chng 10 kho st cu trc ti chnh ton cu v a ra vi
gi lin quan n nhng ci thin kh d. Chng 11 cp
cu trc chnh tr ton cu trong khung cnh mt trng hp
trc nghim: s tan r ca Nam T. V chng 12 kho st
cc trin vng ca mt x hi m ton cu.
V tnh chnh xc lch s, ti gi vn bn ca Chng 7 v
8 c bn khng thay i, ch ra ni quan im ca ti thay
i. Cc chng cn li by t quan im hin thi ca ti.
Ni vn bn vn nh c, th l do ti khng th ci thin
n. Ti vn ci m cho s ph phn, tuy vy, ti sn sng tin
hnh sa li na. Ti mun tip tc trau chut cun sch,
nhng cui cng mt thi hn khc li n v ti li phi vi
a n n nh in. Nh ti ni trc, ti coi cun sch
ny l cng trnh ca i ti v ti tip tc pht trin n chng
no ti cn sng.



PHN I




KHUNG KH KHI NIM



2

CHNG 1

T duy v Thc ti













hi nim v x hi m da trn s tha nhn rng s
hiu bit ca chng ta v th gii l khng hon ho
mt cch c hu. Nhng ngi cho rng mnh nm
c chn l cui cng l a ra mt i hi sai, h ch c th
thc thi n bng cch p t quan im ca mnh ln nhng
ngi khc quan im. Kt qu ca s p buc nh vy l mt
x hi ng, trong quyn t do suy ngh v din t b cm
on. Ngc li, nu chng ta tha nhn tnh c th sai lm
ca mnh, chng ta c th c c mt s hiu bit tt hn v
thc t m khng bao gi t ti kin thc hon ho. Hnh
ng trn s hiu bit , chng ta c th to ra mt x hi
m ra cho s ci thin chng bao gi kt thc. X hi m
khng t ti s hon ho, nhng n c phm cht to ln v
m bo quyn t do t duy v ngn lun v mang li phm
vi rng ri cho th nghim v sng to.
K
gii thch khi nim v x hi m, ti phi bt u vi
quan h gia t duy v thc ti, c bit khi n lin quan n
nhng chuyn x hi. Ti cn chng t ci g l ci lm cho
s hiu bit ca chng ta khng hon ho mt cch c hu.
Tri thc khng vt qu tm hiu bit ca chng ta, nhng
GEORGE SOROS
___________________________________________________

4
khi n cc tnh th trong chng ta l nhng ngi tham
gia tch cc, chng ta khng th t c s cho quyt nh ca
mnh ch ring trn tri thc. Tri thc lin quan n cc s
thc, nhng cc s kin m cc quyt nh ca chng ta lin
quan n khng phi l cc s thc. Chng nm trong tng
lai v tu thuc vo cc quyt nh hin ti ca chng ta.
Ngay c sau khi chng xy ra, chng khc cc s thc to
thnh i tng ch th ca khoa hc t nhin bi v chng b
nh hng ca ci chng ta t duy v; l ngun gc ca
nhng kh khn ca chng ta.
Mi quan h gia t duy v thc ti l mt ch lm cc
trit gia bn tm t khi u ca trit hc, nhng vn cha
c hiu mt cch thch ng. Bn cht ca cc vn trit
hc l n khng c cc cu tr li dt khot, khng th chi
ci c, hay, chnh xc hn, mi cu tr li li nu ra nhng
cu hi mi. Ti khng th hi vng lm tt hn mt cht no,
nhng ti cm thy ti c ci g quan trng ni.
im ct li ti mun a ra l mi quan h gia t duy v
thc ti mang tnh phn thn (reflexive) - tc l, ci chng ta
ngh, c mt cch tc ng ln ci chng ta ngh v. Hin
nhin, iu ny khng ng vi mi kha cnh ca thc ti.
Cc hin tng t nhin din tin bt chp ci chng ta ngh.
Ch trong lnh vc x hi th tnh phn thn mi thch ng,
nhng chnh l ch chng ta quan tm y. Ti s th
chng minh rng tnh phn thn a mt yu t bt nh c
vo s hiu bit ca ngi tham gia, ln vo cc s kin m
h tham gia vo. Tnh phn thn khng l ngun bt nh duy
nht, c trong t duy ca chng ta hay trong thc ti, nhng
khi n xy ra, n to thnh mt ngun bt nh thm vo.
Ti bc vo tho lun vi s bi ri. Cc l l trit hc
thng c xu hng chng bao gi chm dt, v, c bit,
tnh phn thn da vo mt l l vng vo: S hiu bit ca
ngi tham gia l khng hon ho bi v s hiu bit khng
hon ho ca h a mt yu t khng th tin on c vo
tnh th m h tham gia. Ti cng c cc kh khn ring trong
i ph vi ch . Mt ln, vo u cc nm 1960, ti
T duy v Thc ti
__________________________________________________



5
ba nm kho st n cho n mt hm ti chng hiu ni ci
ti vit ngy hm trc v quyt nh thi. By gi ti qay tr
li cng v i . Ti c cng c bi thnh cng ca
mnh trong p dng khung kh ca ti trong th gii thc t.


L thuyt Tng hp v Chn l

t c tri thc, cn phn bit gia t duy v thc ti. Tri
thc bao gm cc tuyn b ng v, theo l thuyt tng hp
v chn l, cc tuyn b l ng khi, v ch khi, chng tng
ng vi cc s thc. c kh nng xc nh liu tuyn b c
ng khng, s thc phi c lp vi cc tuyn b dn chiu
ti n; phi c mt s tch bch kn k gia cc tuyn b v
cc s thc: cc s thc mt bn, cc tuyn b bn kia.
Cc s thc c th dng nh tiu chun theo s tht ca
cc tuyn b c nh gi.
Khng suy ra, tuy vy, rng cc s thc lun tch ri v
c lp vi cc tuyn b lin h vi chng. Tt c ci c
khng nh l s tch bch l cn thit cho thu nhn tri thc.
i khi s tch bch cn thit thnh hnh, lc khc li khng;
trong trng hp sau, s hiu bit ca ngi tham gia khng
t ti tri thc.
Trong cc x hi nguyn thu, ngi dn khng phn bit
gia t duy ring ca h v th gii m nhng suy ngh
lin quan ti. H to ra cc nim tin c coi nh thc ti.
Th d, h ban linh hn cho cc i tng v h chp nhn s
tn ti ca nhng linh hn . Mt khi s phn bit gia suy
ngh v thc ti c nhn ra, quan nim ny v th gii c
th thy l sai. Nhng tuyn b ng c th c phn bit
vi cc tuyn b sai v con ng cho pht trin tri thc m
ra. Thuyt vt linh v tn gio nguyn thu mt tnh hp dn
ca chng; trit hc v khoa hc hnh thnh.
Khi cc trit gia bt u tho lun mi quan h gia t duy
v thc ti, mi quan tm ch yu ca h l xc lp bn cht
v s tn ti ca thc t (bn th hc: ontology) v gii
GEORGE SOROS
___________________________________________________

6
thch lm sao bit c n (nhn thc lun: epistemology).
iu ny dn h n ngh di dng quan h mt chiu trong
l tr tm kim tri thc mt cch tch cc cn thc ti th th
ng ch c khm ph. Cch nhn ny vo mi quan h
c thnh cng ca khoa hc cng c. Phng php khoa
hc lm ht sc mnh bo v i tng ch th khi b
t duy v hnh ng ca nh quan st khoa hc lm vy bn.
Song quan h gia t duy v thc ti khng l con ng
mt chiu. Cc tnh th, trong c ngi tham gia c t duy,
khng nm l ch c nghin cu; chng c cc quyt
nh ca nhng ngi tham gia nho nn mt cch tch cc.
Tt nhin, c cc s kin xy ra c lp vi ci m bt k ai
ngh; cc hin tng ny, nh chuyn ng ca cc hnh tinh,
to thnh i tng ch th ca khoa hc t nhin. y t
duy ng vai tr n gin, mt chiu, c phn cho n: N
phc v cho s hiu bit thc ti. Cc tuyn b khoa hc c
th hoc c th khng tng ng vi cc s thc ca th gii
vt l, nhng trong c hai trng hp cc s thc l tch ri
khi v c lp vi cc tuyn b dn chiu n chng. l l
do ti sao cc khoa hc t nhin c th to ra nhng kt
qu gy n tng n vy.
Cc s kin x hi li khc, v chng c nhng ngi tham
gia bit suy ngh. y quan h gia t duy v thc ti phc
tp hn. T duy ca chng ta hng dn chng ta hnh ng,
v hnh ng ca chng ta c mt tc ng ln ci g xy ra.
Khi c nhiu ngi khc nhau, khng th m bo rng mi
ngi i mt vi cng tnh hung s ngh ging nhau. Kt
qu l mt s thc, nhng n khng t cch c coi l
tiu chun c lp theo tnh ng n hay tnh hp l ca
t duy ca ngi tham gia c th c nh gi, bi v n cn
tu thuc vo nhng ngi tham gia suy ngh v lm ci g.
Thiu mt tiu chun c lp, t duy ca ngi tham gia
khng c t cch c coi nh tri thc. Ngay cho d c
mt s tng ng gia ci nhng ngi tham gia ngh v ci
thc s xy ra, n c th xy ra bi tc ng ca cc quyt
nh ca nhng ngi tham gia; bi vy, s tng ng khng
T duy v Thc ti
__________________________________________________



7
cung cp loi bng chng v tnh ng n ca tuyn b ci
c th nhn c nu gi nh cc tuyn b v cc s thc
ng l c lp vi nhau. Thay cho quan h mt chiu, ci l
c s ca tri thc, t duy ng mt vai tr kp.
Mt mt, nhng ngi tham gia c t duy tm cch hiu
tnh hung trong h tham gia. Ti gi iu ny l chc
nng (hm s) th ng hay nhn thc. Mt khc, h tham gia
vo tnh hung m h tm cch hiu. Ti coi iu ny l chc
nng (hm) tch cc hay tham gia. Thay cho con ng mt
chiu, c s tng tc hai chiu gia nhng ngi tham gia
vo tnh hnh. Hai hm s hot ng theo chiu ngc nhau,
v chng c th i n mu thun vi nhau. Bin s c lp
ca mt hm l bin s ph thuc ca hm kia. Nu c hai
hm ng thi lin kt vi cng cc bin s, mt hm c th
tc ot hm kia mt bin s c lp. S can thip a mt
nhn t bt nh vo c hai hm s iu khng xy ra nu gi
nh hai hm s hot ng c lp vi nhau. l ci ti gi
l tnh phn thn (reflexivity). Ti ly t t ng vn ting
Php, gi mt ng t l phn thn khi ch th v khch th l
nh nhau, nh trong je me lave (ti [t] tm).


L thuyt Phn thn

Tnh phn thn c th pht biu dng hai hm qui:

x = f (y) hm nhn thc [cognitive function]
y = (x) hm tham gia [participating function]

y x m t ci nhn ca ngi tham gia v tnh hnh y.
C hai hm c gi tr no sao cho x khng th l ng nht
vi y. Ngoi ra, c hai hm bao gm thi gian tri i, ci c
th c ghi li bng cch dng k hiu x
t1
, x
t2
v

y
t1
, y
t2
.
Ring mi hm s c th c mt kt qu xc nh: trong
trng hp hm nhn thc, tnh hnh c th xc nh quan
im ca nhng ngi tham gia; trong trng hp hm tham
GEORGE SOROS
___________________________________________________

8

gia, quan im ca nhng ngi tham gia, chuyn thnh hnh
ng, c th xc nh kt qu. Nhng c hai hm s u
khng hot ng trong s cch li tuyt vi. Bin s c lp
ca mt hm y trong trng hp ca f v x trong trng hp
ca l bin s ph thuc ca hm kia. Bng k hiu,

y
t2
= f [(y
t1
)] v
x
t2
= [f(x
t1
)]

Chng no hai hm s c mt gi tr khc 1
*
v c hai hm
u hot ng, c quan im ca ngi tham gia ln trng thi
thc s ca s vic khng cn nh nhau vi thi gian tri i
v chng ci no c xc nh bi ci xy ra trc n. C hai
hm to ra cc kt qu bt nh, v nhn t bt nh trong mt
hm c th quy cho s ph thuc ca n vo hm kia.
y, tt nhin, l mt trnh by gin lc. Hu ht cc tnh
hung c nhiu hn mt ngi tham gia, nh vy thay cho x
n thun chng ta phi lit k x
1,2,3, n
. V bn thn tnh hnh
cha nhiu bin s bn cnh cc hnh ng ca ngi tham
gia n thun, nh th cng thc phi l

y = a,b, c, (x
1,2,3, n
).

Nhng iu khng lm thay i l l c bn: Khi hai
hm s ng thi lin kt cng cc bin s, s tng tc ca
chng a mt nhn t bt nh vo c hai. Quan im ca
ngi tham gia khng c xc nh bi tnh hnh v tnh hnh
tu thuc vo quan im ca ngi tham gia, v tnh hnh
khng th c xc nh bi cc quyt nh ca ngi tham
gia v ngi tham gia hnh ng trn c s tri thc khng
tho ng. Thiu s tng ng mt mt gia quan im ca
ngi tham gia v trng thi thc s ca s vic v mt khc
gia cc nh ca nhng ngi tham gia v kt qu thc s.

*
Nu hai hm khng c cng im c nh (fixed point) th iu tc gi m t c th xy ra.

T duy v Thc ti
__________________________________________________



9
Tnh phn thn hot ng mt phm vi kh hp. Thc ti
bao gm cc lnh vc mnh mng khng b nh hng bi t
duy ca nhng ngi tham gia, v t duy ca ngi dn lin
quan n nhiu i tng khc vi tnh hnh trong h tham
gia vo: H c th m c, theo ui nhng mng tng,
hoc m chm trong nhng suy t trit l hay kho cu khoa
hc. Hn na, tnh phn thn khng phi l ngun duy nht
ca bt nh, c trong thc t hay trong t duy ca ngi tham
gia, nhng trong phm vi hp n hot ng, n l mt ngun
thm ca bt nh. Phm vi hp tnh c l c bit quan
trng i vi chng ta nh nhng ngi tham gia c t duy,
bi v l ni chng ta sng cuc i mnh.


Ngi Tham gia i li Ngi Quan st

ng i snh v tr ca ngi tham gia vi v tr ca nh
khoa hc t nhin. y khng phi l mt so snh thng
c tin hnh, song trong trng hp ny n s lm sng t.
Cc nh khoa hc t nhin ngh v mt v tr c lp vi t
duy ca h. Cc tuyn b ca h thuc v mt v tr, cc s
thc m h dn chiu ti thuc mt v tr khc. Ch c tng
ng mt chiu gia cc tuyn b v cc s thc l kh d.
l c trng mu cht lm cho cc s thc ph hp
dng nh tiu chun m tnh ng n hay hp l ca cc
tuyn b c th c nh gi. N cng lm cho cc s thc
min khi b thao tng bi cc tuyn b v chng. Nu nh
khoa hc mun thao tc thc t mt cch thnh cng, u tin
phi thu c tri thc t n.
Khng phi vy trong trng hp ca nhng ngi tham
gia c t duy. H c th thao tng thc t trc tip hn bng
cch a ra cc t tng v l l tc ng n cc quyt nh
ring ca h v ca nhng ngi tham gia khc. Cc t tng
ny khng cn tng ng vi cc s thc v tnh hnh; tht
vy, chng khng th lm vy v thiu s tng ng ci c
trng cho t duy ca ngi tham gia. Tuy nhin, chng s tc
GEORGE SOROS
___________________________________________________

10
ng ln tnh hnh - d, tnh n hiu bit khng hon ho ca
h, kt qu c th khc vi k vng. C c ch phn hi hai
chiu lm cho c quan im ca ngi tham gia v din tin
thc s ca cc s kin u b nh hng. Mt qu trnh lm
thay i c t duy v thc ti c cho l qu trnh lch s.


Mt Qu trnh Lch s

C ch phn hi hai chiu khng nht thit gy ra mt qu
trnh lch s. N n thun ch c tim nng lm vy. C
nhiu trng hp trong kt qu khng khc nhng k vng
hoc s phn k khng kch mt s thay i v k vng ca
ngi tham gia. Nhng hin nhin cc trng hp khi ng
mt qu trnh ng hc l cc trng hp l th hn.
Cha kho cho vic hiu ng hc nh vy c thy trong
yu t phn xt hoc thin kin m ngi tham gia phi dng
cho cc quyt nh ca mnh. Chng ta thy h khng th
lm m khng a vo mt thin kin nh vy. n lt n,
s khc nhau gia kt qu v k vng c kh nng nh hng
n thin kin. Phn hi c th l dng hoc m. Mt phn
hi dng s tng cng nh kin ban u, ci c th li to
ra phn hi dng hn na, nhng qu trnh khng th tip
tc v hn nh bi v cui cng thin kin nht thit tr nn
r rt n mc thc ti c l khng th sng theo cc k vng.
Nhng ngi tham gia khc nhau c cc nh kin khc
nhau, nhng trong nhiu tnh th - c bit trong cc th
trng ti chnh c th ni v mt thin kin thnh hnh.
Khi u, kt qu c th xc nhn tnh hp l ca nh kin
thnh hnh, nhng khi thin kin thnh hnh tng qu mc,
kh nng ca n tc ng ln din tin ca cc s kin c th
khng cn m bo rng kt qu cng c k vng. Khi
s khc bit gia kt qu v k vng tng ln, thin kin thnh
hnh ngy cng kh duy tr. Nu v khi nhng ngi tham gia
nghi ng hoc t b nh kin ca h, mt qu trnh t tng
cng c th c khi ng theo chiu ngc li. Thin kin
T duy v Thc ti
__________________________________________________



11
thnh hnh cng ph thuc vo qu trnh t hp l ho v s
khc bit gia kt qu v k vng cng ln, th xc sut cho
mt s o ngc nh vy xy ra cng ln. Ti s cho mt s
th d v tnh phn thn trong cc th trng ti chnh
Chng 3.
Qu trnh phn thn l ra theo thi gian. Ti mt thi im
cho trc, ngi dn c hng dn bi mt tp cc k vng
m qua cc quyt nh ca h dn n nhng kt qu no ;
cc kt qu c th lm thay i k vng ca ngi dn, ci c
th lm thay i tp cc quyt nh tip theo to ra cc kt qu
mi, vn vn, nhng tng tc tn thi gian.
C th l l rng cc hm nhn thc v tham gia thc s
khng can thip vo nhau bi v chng c cch li khi nhau
bi thi gian tri qua. Ti bt k thi im no thin kin ca
ngi tham gia l cho trc; ch c thi im k tip n mi
c th b tc ng bi mt kt qu bt ng.
L l ny khng hp l bi s thc l t duy ca ngi
tham gia khng gii hn cc s kin th gii bn ngoi v
s thay i t duy ca h khng nht thit c kch bi cc
s kin bn ngoi. c bit khi con ngi ngh v bn thn
mnh hoc v nhau, hai hm s hot ng ng thi. Hy xt
tuyn b nh Anh yu em hay Hn l k th ca ti. Cc
tuyn b ny tc ng n ngi m chng cp ngay khi
n c ni ra. Khi mt ngi thay i t nhn thc ca
mnh, tc ng cn tc thi hn. S cch li do thi gian tri l
khng c, v c mt s chp mch tht gia hai hm s. Khi
ngi dn thay i kin ca mnh, h cng thay i ng x,
v s thay i khng c xc nh bi hon cnh bn ngoi.
Khi mt s thay i nh vy xy ra, n nh hng trc tip
n t duy ca ngi tham gia nhng ch gin tip n th
gii bn ngoi. Tc ng ca tnh phn thn trong to hnh t-
quan nim, t nhn thc ca ngi tham gia, cc gi tr ca
h, v nhng k vng ca h l ph bin trn lan hn nhiu so
vi nh hng ca n ln din tin ca cc s kin. mc
ln, c tnh v c im ca con ngi c xy dng nn
mt cch phn thn. Chui ban u t tng cng nhng cui
GEORGE SOROS
___________________________________________________

12
cng t th tiu m ti m t trc xy ra t thng xuyn
hn, nhng khi xy ra n c tm quan trng lch s.
S bt nh tht trong ci nhn v chnh mnh hoc v
ngi khc ca ngi tham gia cng a mt yu t bt nh
vo tin trnh cc s kin. Xt vic hn nhn: C hai ngi
tham gia c t duy, nhng t duy ca h khng hng ti
thc t l ci tch bit v c lp vi ci h ngh v cm nhn.
ngh v cm ngh ca mt ngi tc ng ln ng x ca
ngi kia, v ngc li. C cm ngh v ng x c th thay
i khin khng th nhn ra c na khi hn nhn tin trin.
Ngay c khi t duy hng n cc s kin th gii bn
ngoi, cc s kin khng thc s phi xy ra v t duy ca
ngi tham gia thay i. Hy xt cc th trng ti chnh: ct
li ca cc quyt nh u t l d tnh, hoc chit khu,
tng lai. Nhng tng lai l bt nh bi v gi m cc nh
u t sn lng tr cho c phiu hm nay c th nh hng
n vn may ca cng ti theo nhiu cch khc nhau. Ni cch
khc, s thay i v k vng hin hnh c th nh hng n
tng lai m h chit khu. iu ny lm cho gi c trn th
trng ti chnh l bt nh tht s.
Khng phi tt c cc hin tng x hi c t cch l
phn thn, nhng hu ht cc qu trnh lch s th c. Thc
vy, c th l l rng chnh tnh phn thn l ci lm cho cc
s kin thc s mang tnh lch s. C th phn bit gia cc
s kin bun t, xy ra hng ngy, khi hai hm s khng c
tng tc vi nhau mt cch ng k, v cc s kin lch s,
khi chng c. Ly mt th d: Li xe i lm l mt s kin
nhm chn, nhng pht biu ca Nikita Khrushchev trc i
hi Hai mi ca ng Cng sn Lin X l mt s kin lch
s. Mt s kin lch s ch thc khng ch lm thay i th
gii; n cng lm thay i hiu bit v th gii ca chng ta-
v hiu bit mi, n lt n, c tc ng mi v khng th
tin on trc ln tin trnh ca cc s kin.
T duy v Thc ti
__________________________________________________



13

S phn bit gia cc s kin bun t v lch s, tt nhin,
mang tnh tautology
*
, song tautology c th soi sng. Cc i
hi ng Lin X l kh nhm chn, l chuyn c th d
on c, song pht biu ca Khruskchev trc i hi Hai
mi l khc. Bng cch phi by v bc b ti c ca Stalin,
Khrushchev lm thay i cm nhn ca ngi dn, v ngay
c ch cng sn khng thay i tc th, bi pht biu
c cc h qu khng th lng trc: quan im ca nhng
ngi i u ca glasnost ba thp nin sau c nh hnh
trong thi thanh nin ca h bi s tit l ca Khrushchev.


Tnh Khng Xc nh

Cho d c l l mt im hin nhin, cn nhn mnh rng yu
t bt nh m ti ni n khng c to ra bi mt mnh
tnh phn thn; tnh phn thn phi i cng vi s hiu bit
khng hon ho. Nu gi nh do may mn no m con
ngi c ph cho tri thc hon ho, th tng tc gia t
duy ca h v th gii bn ngoi c th c b qua. Kt qu
ca cc hnh ng ca h s tng ng hon ho vi cc k
vng ca h bi v trng thi tht ca th gii c phn nh
mt cch hon ho trong cc quan im ca h. Tng t, nu
t duy ca ngi tham gia gi nh c xc nh hon ton
bi hon cnh bn ngoi hoc xung ng bn trong, yu t bt
nh s c loi tr. Trng thi cng vic ny l khng thc
t, th m n li c xut mt cch nghim tc. Karl
Marx cho l cc iu kin vt cht ca sn xut quyt nh
thng tng kin trc t tng; Sigmund Freud cho rng ng
x ca con ngi c v thc ch ng; v l thuyt kinh t
c in da trn gi thit v tri thc hon ho. Trong mi
trng hp, s thi thc l nh nhau: cho mt gii thch
khoa hc v ng x ca con ngi. Ph hp vi cc tiu
chun thnh hnh th k mi chn, s gii thch phi l tt
nh c th c coi l khoa hc.

*
Lp tha, ni i ni li trng .
GEORGE SOROS
___________________________________________________

14
Tnh Phn thn trong Khung cnh

Khi nim phn thn cn bn n ni kh c th tin rng ti l
ngi u tin tm ra n. Tht vy, khng phi ti. Phn thn
ch l mt ci nhn mi cho tng tc hai chiu gia t duy
v thc ti n su vo lng tri ca chng ta. Nu nhn ra
ngoi a ht khoa hc x hi, chng ta thy nhn thc rng
ri v tnh phn thn. Li sm tin tri Delphic l phn thn,
cc v kch Hi Lp cng vy, theo ngha l cc li tin tri
c hp l ho bi tc ng m chng gy ra.
Ngay c trong khoa hc x hi, i khi c s tha nhn:
Machiavelli a mt yu t bt nh vo phn tch ca
mnh v gi n l s phn; Robert Merton lu n cc li
tin tri t tho mn v nh hng thnh hnh; v mt khi
nim ging phn thn c Alfred Schutz a vo x hi hc
di ci tn tnh lin ch quan: intersubjectivity. Cc nh x
hi hc nh Anthony Giddens dng thut ng tnh phn
thn theo ngha gn ht nh ti dng.
Mi y hn, c mt khoa hc mi, l thuyt h thng tin
ho, pht trin nghin cu tng tc hai chiu gia th
sn mi v con mi, hoc tng qut hn gia ngi tham gia
v mi trng. Ngi tham gia khng nht thit l con ngi
v ng x ca n khng nht thit c ch dn bi hiu bit
khng hon ho, nhng mi quan h l ging nhau mc n
dnh n s tng tc hai chiu. L thuyt h thng tin ho
pht trin cc thut ton nghin cu mi quan h. L
thuyt tr chi cng bin thnh tin ho. N khi u bng
gi thit v tnh duy l, nhng gi thit dn dn c b i v
nghin cu ng x duy l c thay bng ng x thch nghi.
Tnh phn thn khng cn xa l ngay c vi l thuyt kinh t.
y l nhng pht trin mi y. D qun rng cho n gn
y cc nh khoa hc x hi, c bit cc nh kinh t hc,
ct cng xua ui tnh phn thn khi ch ca h. V sao
li nh th s c tho lun Chng 3.
Ti bt u t duy bng tnh phn thn gn nm mi nm
trc. C th l th gi li ti n vi tng th no.
T duy v Thc ti
__________________________________________________



15

l thng qua cc ch thch ca cun Open Society and its
Enemies ca Karl Popper. Cc ch thch ny cp vn t-
dn chiu. T-dn chiu ch c h xa vi phn thn. T-dn
chiu l mt tnh cht ca tuyn b; n hon ton thuc a
ht ca t duy. Phn thn kt ni t duy v thc ti; n thuc
c hai lnh vc. Nhng hai khi nim c ci g chung: mt
yu t khng xc nh.
S thc rng cc tuyn b c th tc ng n ch th m
n dn chiu c xc lp u tin bi Epimenides ngi x
Creta khi ng a ra nghch l k ni di. Nhng ngi Creta
lun ni di, ng bo, v ni th ng t vn v tnh ng
n ca tuyn b ca mnh. L mt ngi Creta, nu ngha
ca ci ng ni l ng, th tuyn b ca ng phi l sai;
ngc li, nu tuyn b ca ng l ng, th ngha m n
truyn t phi l sai.
4

Nghch l k ni di t lu c coi nh mt s k l tr
tu v c b qua bi v n quy ri s theo ui chn l mt
khc (vn) c kt qu. Chn l c nh ngha nh s
tng ng ca tuyn b vi s thc bn ngoi. Ci gi l l
thuyt tng hp v chn l c chp nhn rng ri u th
k hai mi. l thi k nghin cu v s thc em li cc
kt qu y n tng v khoa hc c ngng m rng ri.
c thnh cng ca khoa hc khch l, Bertrand Russell
lao vo x tr nghch l k ni di. Gii php ca ng l
phn bit hai loi tuyn b: mt lp gm nhng tuyn b dn
chiu n chnh mnh, v mt lp loi tr cc tuyn b nh
vy. Ch c cc tuyn b thuc lp sau c th c coi l
ng th thc theo ngha l c mt gi tr chn l xc nh.
Trong trng hp cc tuyn b t dn chiu, c th khng c
kh nng xc nh liu chng ng hay sai.
Cc nh thc chng logic a l l ca Bertrand Russell
ti kt lun logic ca n v tuyn b l nhng pht biu, m
gi tr chn l ca n khng c xc nh hoc bi s thc

4
Nghch l k ni di c th c din gii nh mt trng hp phn hi m. Nu vn
(tc l, liu tuyn b ca Epimenides c ng khng) c np vo mt my tnh, cu tr li
l mt chui v tn Khng, C, Khng, C.
GEORGE SOROS
___________________________________________________

16
thc nghim hay bng hnh thc logic ca chng, l v ngha.
Nn nh rng, l thi k khoa hc cho cc gii thch tt
nh i vi phm vi ngy cng rng ca cc hin tng trong
khi trit hc li tr nn qu xa thc t. Ch ngha thc chng
logic l mt gio l cm siu hnh hc v cao tri thc khoa
hc nh hnh thc duy nht ca s hiu bit xng vi ci tn
. Nhng ngi hiu l l ca ti, Ludwig Wittgenstein
ni trong kt lun ca cun Tractatus Logico-Phylosophicus
ca ng, phi nhn ra rng mi th ti ni trong cun sch
u l v ngha. Dng nh con ng cho suy ngm siu
hnh chm dt v chin thng hon ton ca tri thc tt
nh, da trn s thc, l ci c trng cho khoa hc.
Tuy vy, ngay sau , tro lu r hng. Wittgenstein nhn
ra rng nh gi ca mnh qu nghim khc, v ng bt tay
vo nghin cu ngn ng hng ngy. Trong lc , ngay c
khoa hc t nhin tr nn t tt nh hn. N gp cc
ranh gii m qu chng th khng th gi nhng quan st khi
ch th ca chng. Cc nh khoa hc tm cch thu hiu ranh
gii, u tin vi thuyt tng i ca Einstein, ri vi
nguyn l bt nh ca Heisenberg. Gn y hn, cc nh
nghin cu dng l thuyt h thng tin ho bt u khm
ph cc hin tng vt l phc tp m din tin ca chng
khng th c xc nh bng cc nh lut c hiu lc mi
mi. Cc s kin i theo mt qu o khng o ngc c
trong ngay c nhng nhiu lon nh c khuych i vi
thi gian. L thuyt hn n (chaos) c xy dng trn nhn
thc ny v c kh nng lm sng t nhiu hin tng
phc tp, nh thi tit, m trc y tr ra vi nghin cu
khoa hc. Nhng tin b ny lm cho tng v mt v
tr ph thuc vo qu o thay cho v tr tt nh, ni cc s
kin i theo mt tin trnh n nht, khng thun nghch, c
th chp nhn c hn. Dn dn tng tm c cch
ti cc khoa hc x hi, ni n thc s thuc v bi v n c
trng cho qu o m cc hin tng phn thn i theo.
Ti bt u p dng khi nim phn thn hiu cng vic
x hi, v c bit trong cc th trng ti chnh, vo u cc
T duy v Thc ti
__________________________________________________



17
nm 1960 trc khi l thuyt h thng tin ho ra i. Bng
cch a ra khi nim, ti hi vng lt ngc ch ngha thc
chng logic. Ch ngha thc chng logic coi cc tuyn b t
dn chiu l v ngha. Ti cho rng cc tuyn b m gi tr
chn l ca n khng xc nh, cn xa mi v ngha, thm ch
cn quan trng hn cc tuyn b m gi tr chn l ca n
c bit. Nhng ci sau to thnh tri thc: Chng gip chng
ta hiu th gii nh n l. Nhng nhng ci trc nhng
biu hin ca s hiu bit khng hon ho ca chng ta gip
nh hnh th gii trong chng ta sng.
Ti thi im rt ra kt lun ny, ti coi n l mt s
thu hiu ln. Khi nim phn thn v tnh bt nh i cng
vi n dng nh ra mt chng i l phi c tha nhn
rng ri. Ngay c khi vt l hc t b quan im tt nh,
cc khoa hc x hi ni chung v kinh t hc ni ring vn c
khng khng bm ly n.
Thi th thay i n th no! Ch ngha thc chng
logic mt s ng h ti mc ti cm thy nh mnh nh
mt con nga cht. L thuyt h thng tin ho xm
nhp mnh m khng ch vo cc khoa hc vt l v sinh hc
m c cc khoa hc x hi. Trong khi cc k vng duy l v
la chn duy l vn cn mnh, nhiu nh kinh t hc t b
gi thit v tnh duy l v bt u khai ph cc con ng
kh d khc v xem xt ng x kinh t.
Nh ta c th k vng mt th gii phn thn, nhng s
thay i khng gii hn t duy; chng cng nh hng
n thc ti. Trong chng mc no y, my tnh ph v
s tch bit gia t duy v thc ti, bi v ni dung v cc
lnh iu hnh c cha trong cng thng ip. iu ny
lm ny n ra mt cch mi nhn vo th gii trong t
duy v thc ti tng tc vi nhau thay cho to thnh cc
phm tr tch bit. N cng biu l tm quan trng ca thng
tin. Nhiu kha cnh ca thc ti, nh tng trng hu c, m
trc kia c din gii bng nng lng c th c hiu tt
hn bng thng tin. Cc dng cha tn ti trc y ca thng
tin v truyn thng, (x l) nh my tnh, cng ngh sinh hc,
GEORGE SOROS
___________________________________________________

18
gii m gen ngi, Internet, v cc hnh thc thc t o a
dng, ng vai tr ngy cng tng trong i sng chng ta.
tng rng thc ti bng cch no tch bit v c lp
vi t duy tr nn li thi. S thay i ny trong nhn thc
v thc ti c tng tc trong cc nm gn y n im
m n chng khc g mt cuc cch mng thc s. Phn hi
v phn thn c tha nhn nh cc hin tng sng thc.
Phn thn c th khng c cng nhn nh mt khi nim,
song khng cn do n mu thun vi hiu bit thnh hnh;
ng hn, n c th b b qua v n tr nn qu hin nhin.
S bin i cch mng ny p xung m ti khng c
chun b. iu c th hiu c: l c trng ca cc
cuc cch mng m tc thay i vt qu nhn thc ca
chng ta. Gi nh nu ti bt u li t u, c l ti chng
cm thy cn nhn i nhn li khi nim phn thn v quan h
ca n ti t-dn chiu. Nhng ti tin c ci g c th thu
c t cch tip cn ca ti: Ngy nay ngi ta c th sn
sng coi tnh phn thn l nghim nhin, nhng h c th
khng thc c y v tt c cc h lu ca n. V c
th ti khng phi l ngi duy nht thy kh iu chnh
vi s thay i trit v thi . Thc ra, a s ngi dn c
th khng nhn thc c l mt s bin i trit xy ra
- nhng ngi tr bi v h t hiu bit v ngi ta ngh ra
sao nm mi nm trc, nhng ngi gi bi v h khng
iu chnh c t duy ca mnh v do cm thy bi ri
trc mi trng hin ti.
Chng ta qun rng ch ngha thc chng logic rt c
nh hng ban u th k ny; n thc s ngn cm tnh
phn thn bng cch tuyn b rng cc pht biu m gi tr
chn l ca n khng th c xc nh dt khot l v ngha.
ng nh iu ny, bi v n nhc nh chng ta nhng gii
hn ca s hiu bit ca chng ta c hiu ti n th
no. Chng ta bit l chng ta c th sai lm, th m chng ta
khng hiu v sao. Chnh s thc rng chng ta l ngi tham
gia l ci hn ch nng lc ca chng ta vi t cch l cc nh
quan st. Chng ta khng th trnh da vo lng tin ci c th
T duy v Thc ti
__________________________________________________



19
tc ng n tnh hiu lc ca ring n, v chng ta khng th
t c s chc chn loi c th c trong cc lnh vc ni
chn l c th c xc lp trn c s s thc. Hy xt ci
cht v s hp hi: Chng ta c th nghin cu n mt cch
khoa hc, nhng khi n ci cht ca chnh chng ta, khoa
hc khng cho cu tr li; chng ta phi t thu xp ly.
C nhiu cch ho gii vic ng thi l nh quan st v
ngi tham gia, nhng chng cch no l hon ton tho mn.
Ch ngha thc chng logic lm iu ny bng cm cc
tuyn b t-dn chiu v lm th n n gin lng trnh tnh
th kh x ca mt ngi tham gia c t duy. Ch ngha thc
chng logic ch a cc t tng Khai Sng v l tr vi t
cch l ci g tch ri khi thc ti n kt lun logic ca
n. Ti t duy, cho nn ti tn ti, Descartes ni. T tng
Khai Sng rng l tr c kh nng gii thch v tin on thc
ti vn hn su trong cch suy ngh ca chng ta. Trong kinh
t hc, th d, n c hin thn l thuyt cnh tranh hon
ho v k vng duy l, nh chng ta s thy, l ci cung cp s
bin minh khoa hc cho tn iu thnh hnh ca thuyt th
trng chnh thng (market fundamentalism). Cc k vng
khng th l duy l khi chng gn vi ci g tu thuc vo
chnh n. Khi nim cn bng trong kinh t hc da trn nhn
thc li thi v thc ti v l tr nh cc phm tr tch bit.
Hin thi, li sc bn ca mt tr tu li vung sang thi
cc ngc li: phn kin trc (deconstruction) thc ti thnh
cc quan im ch quan v nh kin ca nhng ngi tham
gia tr thnh mt trong cc mn x hi. Chnh c s trn
cc quan im khc nhau c th c nh gi - c th l,
chn l khch quan - b nghi ng. Ti chng c my thin cm
vi nhng ngi tm cch phn kin trc thc ti. Ti coi iu
ny l mt thi cc khc lm lc ngang nhau, v khi nim
phn thn phi gip ti nu r vn ca mnh.
Tnh phn thn da trn s tha nhn rng c mt thc ti
v chng ta l mt phn ca thc ti y: l v sao hiu bit
ca chng ta li khng hon ho mt cch c hu. Thc ti l
duy nht v quan trng khc thng. N khng th c rt
GEORGE SOROS
___________________________________________________

20
gn hoc phn r thnh cc quan im v nim tin ca nhng
ngi tham gia, chnh xc l bi v thiu s tng ng gia
ci ngi ta ngh v ci thc s xy ra. Ni cch khc, thc ti
l nhiu hn cc quan im ca ngi tham gia.
Thiu tng ng cng cn tr s tin on cc s kin trn
c s nhng khi qut c gi tr ph qut. C mt thc ti,
du cho khng th tin on c. iu ny c th kh c
chp nhn, nhng v ch, thm ch ht sc nguy him, i t
chi n nh bt k ngi tham gia no mt tin cc th
trng ti chnh c th xc nhn. Cc th trng him khi lm
va lng cc k vng, th m phn x ca chng l thc t
gy au kh v mt mt v chng c quyn khng co.
c gi c th thy l l ti a th trng ti chnh nh
mt th d ca thc ti; i vi a s ngi dn n dng nh
khng thc. Song iu ch chng t s hiu bit ca chng
ta v thc ti b mo m. Chng ta ngh v thc ti nh ci g
c lp vi nhc im ca con ngi, trong khi hiu bit
khng hon ho ca chng ta l mt phn rt tht ca thc ti.
Th trng ti chnh phn nh cc quan im thin lch ca
nhng ngi tham gia; chng ng mt vai tr quan trng
trong nh hnh din tin cc s kin. Din tin cc s kin
khng th c hiu n gin bng nghin cu quan im ca
nhng ngi tham gia; chng ta cng phi kho st din tin
thc s ca cc s kin khc cc quan im ra sao. Khc i
chng ta c th b st vic tnh n s khc bit gia cc k
vng v kt qu - v l mt s bp mo ng k thc ti.
Ti tm cch ho gii mu thun c hu v ng thi l
ngi tham gia v nh quan st bng cch coi tnh c th sai
ca chng ta nh im xut pht. Trnh by li Descartes, ti
l mt phn ca th gii ti tm cch hiu, v vy s hiu bit
ca ti l khng hon ho mt cch c hu. iu ny p dng
vi hiu lc c bit i vi cc kha cnh ca thc ti khi c
nhng ngi tham gia c t duy. N lm cho c s hiu bit
ca chng ta ln din tin ca cc s kin khng chc chn.
V s bt trc khng th c loi b, tt hn nu chng ta
coi n l im xut pht ca mnh. Lm vy khng loi tr
T duy v Thc ti
__________________________________________________



21
vic suy ngm hoc v bn cht ca thc ti hoc v bn cht
ca tri thc, nhng n to c s vng chc hn cho hiu bit
th gii trong chng ta sng so vi v ring tng ci. V
n s dn n khi nim x hi m nh mt hnh thc ng
mong mun ca t chc x hi.
Trong khi chng ta tr nn quen vi phn thn nh mt
hin tng, chng ta vn cha bit nh gi cc h lu ca n.
Chng ta phi tha nhn rng thc ti khng phi l ci g
tch ri v c lp vi t duy ca chng ta. Tri thc hon ho
l khng th t c, nhng ngay c vi s hiu bit khng
hon ho chng ta vn c kh nng nh hng ln th gii m
chng ta sng. Chng ta phi nh, tuy vy, rng tnh c th sai
ca chng ta c kh nng to ra s khc bit gia nh v
kt qu. Thay cho s theo ui v ch thit k hon ho - bt
lun dng ca ch ngha cng sn hay dng th trng c
khuynh hng dn ti cn bng chng ta phi t tho mn
vi ci tt nht k (tt th nh): mt x hi t m ra cho s
thay i v ci thin. l khi nim v x hi m.


Mt Khi nim Phn thn v Chn l

Ch ngha thc chng logic tm cch loi b v coi cc tuyn
b t-dn chiu l v ngha. S r rng rt ph hp vi
mt v tr tch bit v c lp vi cc tuyn b dn chiu n
n, nhng rt khng thch ng cho s hiu bit th gii ca
cc tc nhn c t duy. lun c kh nng tn cng lp
trng thc chng logic ti bin bng cch v ra cc tuyn b
no m gi tr chn l ca n l bt nh th d, Vua hin
thi ca nc Php hi u. Nhng cc tuyn b nh vy
hoc v l hay c sp t trc; c hai cch, chng ta c
th sng m chng cn n chng. Ngc li, cc tuyn b
phn thn l khng th thiu c cho s hiu bit ng n
cng vic x hi. Chng ta khng th lm m khng c cc
tuyn b phn thn bi v chng ta khng th loi tr cc
quyt nh lin quan n s phn chng ta; v chng ta khng
GEORGE SOROS
___________________________________________________

22
th i ti cc quyt nh m khng da vo cc l thuyt v
nhng tin on c th nh hng n i tng ch th m
chng dn chiu ti. B qua vic s dng cc tuyn b phn
thn khi tt c chng ta u dng chng, hoc buc chng vo
cc phm tr ng v sai, l din gii sai vai tr ca t
duy trong cng vic ca con ngi. Thay cho phn loi chng
ch nh ng hay sai, c th hu ch hn a ra mt phm
tr th ba: cc tuyn b phn thn m gi tr chn l ca n
tu thuc vo tc ng ca chng.
Mi tuyn b v gi tr u c c tnh phn thn: Sung
sng thay nhng ngi ngho, v thin ng l ca h.
Nu tin vo tuyn b ny, th ngi ngho thc s c phc
lnh vi kh nng l i nhng cng vic kh nhc ca
mnh nhng h s t c thc y thot khi cnh kh cc
ca h. Theo cng cch, nu ngi ngho b cho l c ti v
s khn kh ca ring mnh, th h chc t nhn c bt k
s khuy kho no v s c t l do coi mnh l c phc.
Hu ht nhng khi qut ho v lch s v x hi tng t u
c c tnh phn thn: Nhng ngi v sn trn th gii
chng c g mt ngoi xing xch ca h hoc Li ch
chung c phng s tt nht bng cch cho ngi dn
theo ui li ch ring ca h. C th thch ng khng
nh rng nhng tuyn b nh vy khng c gi tr chn l xc
nh, nhng tht sai lm (v v mt lch s rt nguy him)
coi chng nh v ngha. mc chng c tin, chng
tc ng ln tnh hnh m chng dn chiu n.
Ti khng i hi rng mt phm tr th ba v chn l l
khng th thiu c gii quyt cc hin tng phn thn.
Mt s phn bit c sng knh lu i gia ng v sai c
th l , min l chng ta tha nhn rng cc tuyn b khng
cn phi l ng hay sai l c ngha. Nhng tin on lin
quan n cc s kin n nht l ng hay sai ph thuc vo
liu chng c xy ra hay khng. Ch khi n cc l thuyt tin
on th s bt trc gn vi tnh phn thn ni c vai tr. C
l c gii quyt tt nht mc cc l thuyt hn l mc
cc tuyn b. im mu cht l trong cc tnh trng phn thn
T duy v Thc ti
__________________________________________________



23
s thc khng nht thit cung cp mt tiu chun c lp theo
tnh ng n hay hp l ca cc l thuyt c th c
nh gi. Chng ta i n coi s tng ng nh du xc
nhn ca chn l. Nhng s tng ng c th c dn n
theo hai cch: hoc a ra cc tuyn b tng ng vi cc s
thc, hoc lm cho cc s thc tng ng vi cc tuyn b.
Ch c trng hp u s tng ng l ci m bo ca
chn l; trng hp th hai s tng ng c th l s chng
nhn cho tc ng ca mt nim tin hn l cho tnh ng n
hay hp l ca n. Li cnh bo ny p dng cho hu ht cc
tuyn b chnh tr v nhiu l thuyt x hi. Thay cho l ng
hay sai, chng tu thuc vo vic c c tin khng.
Ti hu nh khng cn nhn mnh ngha su sc ca
xut ny: i vi t duy chng g cn bn hn khi nim chn
l. Chng ta quen ngh v cc tnh trng c ngi tham gia
bit suy ngh theo cng cch nh ngh v cc hin tng t
nhin, nhng mi quan h gia s thc v tuyn b l khc:
Thay cho ng mt chiu, ta thy mt c ch phn hi hai
chiu- phn thn. V vy chng ta phi xt li k lng cch
chng ta ngh v th gii cng vic con ngi v x hi.


Mt Quan nim Tng tc v Th gii

Trong lnh vc x hi chng ta c th a ra s phn bit gia
tuyn b v s thc, gia t duy v thc ti, nhng chng ta
phi nhn ra rng s phn bit ny l do chng ta a vo vi
mt n lc lm cho th gii m chng ta sng c ngha;
n khng thnh hnh trong th gii . T duy ca chng ta
thuc cng mt v tr m chng ta ngh v. iu ny gy ra
v s kh khn khng tn ti khi cp n cc kha cnh ca
thc ti ni t duy v thc ti c th c tch ri ra thnh
hai ngn kn k (nh trong khoa hc t nhin). Thay cho cc
phm tr tch bit, chng ta phi coi t duy nh mt phn ca
thc ti. Tnh c, nhng kh khn tng t ny sinh khi
chng ta th hiu thc ti nh mt tng th (v chng ta l
GEORGE SOROS
___________________________________________________

24
mt phn ca n), nhng khng phi l trng tm chnh
ca tho lun ny.
Khng th hnh thnh mt bc tranh v th gii chng ta
sng m khng c mo m. Theo ngha en, khi mt ngi
to ra mt hnh nh th gic c mt im m ni dy thn kinh
mt gn vi h thng thn kinh. Hnh nh hnh thnh trong c
chng ta ti to th gii bn ngoi r mt cch xut sc, v c
th thm ch lp kn im m bng cch ngoi suy t phn
cn li ca bc tranh, du cho chng ta khng th thc s
thy ci g vng do im m che ph. y l mt n d hu
ch cho vn chng ta i mt. S thc rng ti da vo mt
n d gii thch vn c l l mt n d cn tt hn.
Th gii chng ta sng l cc k phc tp. hnh thnh
mt quan nim v th gii c th dng nh c s cho cc
quyt nh, chng ta phi n gin ho. S dng nhng khi
qut ho, n d, tng t, so snh, phn i, v cc kin trc
tinh thn khc dng a trt t no vo mt v tr mt
khc rt kh hiu. Nhng mi kin trc tinh thn mc
no lm mo m ci n i din, v mi s mo m thm
ci g vo th gii m chng ta cn hiu. Cc tng c
mt cch c cuc sng ring ca chng. Ti s cho mt
minh ho thc tin v iu ny trong quan h vi khi nim
v x hi m (xem Chng 5). Chng ta t duy cng nhiu,
chng ta phi suy ngh cng nhiu. l v thc ti khng
phi l mt ci c cho trc. N hnh thnh trong cng qu
trnh nh t duy ca nhng ngi tham gia: T duy cng
phc tp, thc ti cng tr nn phc tp. T duy chng bao
gi c th bt kp thc ti, v thc ti lun lun phong ph
hn nhn thc ca chng ta. Thc ti c kh nng lm cc nh
t tng ngc nhin, v t duy c kh nng to ra thc ti.
nh l Gdel lm cho ti thy r im ny. Gdel
chng minh v mt ton hc rng lun lun c nhiu qui lut
trong ton hc hn ta c th chng minh c v mt ton
hc. K thut m ng dng l biu th cc qui lut ton hc
bng cc s Gdel. V s cc s nguyn l v hn, lun c th
thm mt s vo v tr m cc s ny thuc v, l, cc
T duy v Thc ti
__________________________________________________



25

nh lut ton hc. Bng cch ny, Gdel c th chng
minh khng ch rng s cc qui lut l v tn m c rng n
vt qu s qui lut c th c bit n bi v c cc qui lut
v cc qui lut v cc qui lut ad infinitum (c th mi); ci
phi c bit tri rng ra theo bc vi tri thc ca chng ta.
Cng dng lp lun c th p dng cho tnh trng c nhng
ngi tham gia c t duy. hiu iu ny, chng ta cn xy
dng mt m hnh cha quan im ca tt c nhng ngi
tham gia. Bn thn nhng quan im cng li to thnh cc
m hnh ci phi cha quan im ca tt c nhng ngi tham
gia. Nh th chng ta cn cc m hnh ca cc nh xy dng
m hnh m cc m hnh ca h bao hm cc m hnh ca cc
nh xy dng m hnh, v vn vn, c th mi, ad infinitum.
Cc m hnh nhn ra cng nhiu mc, c cng nhiu mc cn
phi nhn ra - v nu cc m hnh khng nhn ra chng, nh
sm mun chng phi th - chng khng cn ti to thc ti.
Nu gi nh ti c k nng ton ca Gdel, ti phi c kh
nng chng minh theo dng suy ngh ny rng cc quan im
ca nhng ngi tham gia khng th tng ng vi thc ti.
5

y khng phi l ch tho lun nhiu cch khc nhau
trong t duy c lm mo m ln lm thay i thc ti. Hin
ti c th gp chng li di ci tn tnh c th sai. C cc
vn khng c li gii cui cng no, v n lc tm gii
php c th lm trm trng vn . Mt ngi tham gia c t
duy tm cch nhn tri thc hay th ng u vi vin cnh
v ci cht ca mnh i mt vi cc vn khng c li gii.
Ti m ch cc loi vn ny nh thn phn con ngi.
Tuy nhin, cc vn khng c li gii khng gii hn thn
phn con ngi. Ta bt gp chng trong nhiu bi cnh: Thit
k mt h thng t gi hi oi, khc phc s lm dng thuc
[ma tu], duy tr tnh n nh ca cc th trng ti chnh - tt

5
William Newton-Smith ch ra cho ti rng din gii v cc s Gdel ca ti l khc vi
ca bn thn Gdel. Hnh nh Gdel hnh dung mt v th kiu Platon trong cc s Gdel
tn ti trc khi ng khm ph ra chng, trong khi ti ngh rng cc s Gdel c ng
pht minh ra, do m rng v tr trong ng hot ng. Trong trng hp , din gii
ca ti v nh l Gdel c th coi nh mt lm tng mu m: fertile fallacy. (Khi nim
ny s c gii thch mun hn trong chng ny).
GEORGE SOROS
___________________________________________________

26
c cc vn khng gii quyt c hin nay, ni gii php
c chp nhn nht thit gy ra cc vn mi.


Hai Phin bn ca Tnh C th Sai

Ti xut tho lun hai phin bn ca tnh c th sai: th
nht, mt phin bn hnh thc, n ho, d chng minh hn
mang tnh c hu trong khi nim phn thn v bin minh cho
mt li t duy ph phn; th hai, mt phin bn trit , mang
tnh c nhn, v c tnh hn ci thc s hng dn ti trong
cuc sng v to thnh c s ca l thuyt ca ti v lch s.
Phin bn hnh thc, n ho ca tnh c th sai c tho
lun ri. Tnh c th sai c ngha l thiu s tng ng gia t
duy ca ngi tham gia v trng thi tht ca s vic; nh
mt kt qu, cc hnh ng c nhng hu qu khng d tnh
trc. Kt qu khng nht thit khc ch , nhng c kh
nng nh vy. C nhiu s kin thng, bun t din ra ng
nh d kin, song cc s kin biu l mt s khc bit l l
th hn. Chng c th bin i quan nim ca ngi dn v
th gii v khi ng mt qu trnh phn thn, u tin t-hp
l v t-tng cng nhng cui cng tr thnh t-th tiu.
Khi xy ra, mt qu trnh nh vy c th y cc quan im
thnh hnh v trng thi tht ca s vic ra kh xa nhau m
khng c bt k m bo no rng chng s bao gi c ko
li vi nhau. Thng thng, cc sai lm c xu hng c
sa cha, nhng khi cc quan im l t-hp l khng hin
nhin rng chng l sai lm cho n mun hn nhiu trong
qu trnh- v vo lc , thc ti lm c s cng thay i.
Tnh c th sai nghe c v tiu cc, song n c kha cnh
tch cc quan trng hn v nhiu mt. Ci khng hon ho c
th c ci thin. S thc l hiu bit ca chng ta khng
hon ho mt cch c hu lm cho c th hc v nng cao
hiu bit ca chng ta. Tt c ci cn l tha nhn tnh c th
sai ca chng ta v thit lp mt c ch sa sai. iu ny m
ng cho t duy ph phn, v khng c gii hn cho s thu
T duy v Thc ti
__________________________________________________



27
hiu ca chng ta c th i xa n u. Phm vi cho ci thin
l v tn chnh xc v s hon ho l khng th t c.
iu ny khng ch ng cho t duy m cho c x hi
chng ta. S hon ho n trnh chng ta; d ta chn bt c
n no, n nht thit c thiu st. V vy chng ta phi tho
mn vi ci tt th nh: mt hnh thc x hi khng hon ho
song m ra cho s ci thin. chnh l tnh u vit ca n
trn x hi ng, x hi tm cch t chi s bt hon ho ca
ring n ngay c khi th gii xung quanh thay i. S tha
nhn tnh c th sai ca chng ta l cha kho cho s tin b.


Tnh C th Sai Trit

Ti im ny, ti s thay i chin thut. Thay cho tho lun
tnh c th sai ni chung, ti c gii thch n c ngha g vi
c nhn ti. N l nn tng khng ch cho quan nim ca ti
v th gii m cng cho c tnh ring ca ti, v nh vy n
c phn nh trong ng x ca ti. N hng dn hnh
ng ca ti c nh ngi tham gia trong cc th trng ti
chnh v nh mt nh t thin, v n l nn tng ca l thuyt
ca ti v lch s. Nu c bt k g c o trong t duy ca
ti, th l phin bn trit ny v tnh c th sai.
Ti c quan nim nghim ngt hn v tnh c th sai so vi
l l l thuyt trc ca ti c th l gii. Ti cho rng mi kin
trc ca tr c con ngi d b hp ni su kn ni ti ca
t duy ca chng ta hay c bc l ra th gii bn ngoi
dng cc mn hc, cc h t tng, v cc nh ch - u c
thiu st theo cch no . Cc thiu st c th biu hin
dng cc mu thun ni b hay mu thun vi th gii bn
ngoi hay mu thun vi mc ch m chng c d kin.
nh ny, tt nhin, mnh hn nhiu s tha nhn rng
tt c cc kin trc ca chng ta c th l sai. Ti khng ni
v mt s thiu tng ng n thun m v mt thiu st thc
s trong t duy ca chng ta v mt s khc bit tht gia
nh v kt qu. Nh ti gii thch trc y, nh ny
GEORGE SOROS
___________________________________________________

28
ch p dng cho cc s kin lch s ni s khc bit khi ng
mt qu trnh ban u t-tng cng nhng cui cng t-th
tiu. Trong cc tnh hung thng, nhm chn, cc sai lm
c sa cha. l l do v sao phin bn trit ca tnh c
th sai c th dng nh c s cho mt l thuyt v lch s.
Lun im rng tt c mi kin trc ca con ngi u c
sai st nghe m m v bi quan, nhng khng c l do cho
tuyt vng. Tnh c th sai nghe c v tiu cc ch v chng ta
nui cc hi vng gi v s hon ho, vnh cu, v chn l cui
cng - vi tnh bt t c nm thm vo. nh gi bng cc
tiu chun nh vy, thn phn con ngi nht thit l khng
va . Thc ra, s hon ho v bt t n trnh chng ta, v s
vnh cu ch c th thy trong ci cht. Nhng cuc sng cho
mt c hi ci thin s hiu bit ca chng ta chnh xc l
v n khng hon ho, v x hi m to c hi ci thin th
gii trong chng ta sng chnh xc v n tha nhn tnh
khng hon ho ca n. Trong mt x hi hon ho, chng
cn g m phn u.
C hai cch x l vic nhn ra mi kin trc u thiu
st: tm cch trn thot, hay tm nhng ci thin thiu hon
ho. X hi ng theo ui o tng v s hon ho v vnh
cu; x hi m chp nhn thn phn con ngi. Khi tt c cc
kin trc u khng hon ho, cc la chn no l tt hn
nhng ci khc, v chng ta chn ci no to ra s khc bit
hon ton. C nhiu ci c t s tha nhn tnh c th sai
ca chng ta. X hi m nn c a hn x hi ng.
Tuy nhin, lun im ca ti rng mi kin trc con ngi
v x hi u c thiu st khng t cch l mt gi thuyt
khoa hc v n khng th c kim chng mt cch thch
hp. D ti c th cho l quan im ca nhng ngi tham
gia lun lun khc thc ti, ti khng th chng minh n v
ti chng bao gi bit thc ti s ra sao khi khng c quan
im b thin lch ca chng ta. Ti c th i cho cc s kin
chng t mt s khc bit vi k vng, nhng, nh ti ch
ra, cc s kin k tip khng c dng nh mt tiu chun
T duy v Thc ti
__________________________________________________



29
c lp cho quyt nh cc k vng no l ng, v cc k vng
khc nhau c th dn n nhng kt qu khc nhau.
Tng t, ti c th cho l mi kin trc con ngi u
thiu st, nhng ti khng th nu ra cc sai st g cho n
sau s thc, v ngay c khi ti c th b tranh ci v tn.
Cc sai st thng bc l ra thi im tng lai no ,
song khng phi l bng chng rng kin trc c sai st
thi im n c hnh thnh. Nhc im ca cc t tng
thng tr v dn xp nh ch tr nn hin nhin ch vi thi
gian tri i, v khi nim phn thn ch bin minh cho i hi
rng mi kin trc con ngi u c tim nng sai st. l l
do v sao ti trnh by xut ca ti nh mt gi thit hot
ng, m khng c chng minh logic hay a v khoa hc.
Ti gi n l mt gi thit hot ng bi v n hot
ng cho ti nh mt nh u t. N c v ti tm ra cc
sai st trong mi lun im u t v, khi ti tm thy cc sai
st ny, tn dng s sng sut. Khi ti thit lp mt lun
im u t, ti tha nhn rng din gii ca ti v tnh hnh
nht thit b mo m. iu ny khng lm ti nn lng c
mt quan nim; ngc li, ti tm ra cc tnh hung ni l gii
ca ti bt ho vi l phi thnh hnh, bi v chnh l ci
cho mt c hi kim li. Nhng ti lun lun canh chng
li lm ca mnh; khi ti pht hin ra n, ti nm bt n vi
s st sng. S khm ph ra sai lm c th cho php ti gi
bt k li nhun no ti kim c t s hiu bit sai ban
u ca mnh - hoc ct thit hi nu s hiu bit chng
mang li ngay c mt khon li nhun tm thi.
Hu ht mi ngi u min cng tha nhn l h sai; ti
thy nim vui khi pht hin mt sai lm, bi v ti bit l n
c th cu ti khi ni au ti chnh. V ti gi thit rng mi
lun im u t u nht thit c sai st, ti thch bit cc sai
st l g. iu ny khng ngn ti u t; ngc li, ti
cm thy an ton hn nhiu khi ti bit cc im nguy him
tim tng bi v chng bo ti ng ti cc du hiu no loi
tr tn tht. Khng c u t no cho li tc cao mi. D mt
cng ti c mt v th th trng mnh, c ban qun l xut sc,
GEORGE SOROS
___________________________________________________

30
v li gp c bit, c phiu c th c nh gi cao, ban
qun l c th tr nn t mn, v mi trng cnh tranh hay
iu tit c th thay i. Khn ngoan tm con su lm ru
ni canh; khi bn bit n l g, bn tri hn trong cuc chi.
Ti pht trin bin th ring ca m hnh Popper v
phng php khoa hc cho mnh (ti s m t chng sau)
s dng cc th trng ti chnh. Ti thit lp mt gi
thuyt trn c s ti u t. Gi thuyt phi khc vi quan
im c chp nhn; s khc bit cng ln, li nhun tim
nng cng cao. Nu khng c s khc bit no, th chng ng
ly mt v th. iu ny tng ng vi lun im ca Popper
- b nhiu trit gia khoa hc ph phn - l th thch cng
nghim ngt, th gi thuyt rng n vt qua cng gi tr.
Trong khoa hc, gi tr ca mt gi thuyt l v hnh; trong
cc th trng ti chnh, n c th c o d dng bng tin.
Ngc vi cc gi thuyt khoa hc, mt gi thuyt ti chnh
khng cn l ng sinh li do c tnh phn thn ca n; l
rng n phi c chp nhn rng ri. Song mt gi thuyt
sai khng th thnh hnh mi. chnh l l do v sao ti thch
u t theo cc gi thit sai c c hi c chp nhn rng
ri, min l ti bit sai st ca chng. Cch tip cn ny
cho php ti bn kp thi. Th d, ti tham gia vo t
hng thnh t hp c quyn (conglomerate boom) chnh xc
v ti bit cc im yu l g (xem gii thch chng 2).
Ti gi cc gi thuyt sai ca ti l cc lm tng mu m,
v ti xy dng l thuyt ca ti v lch s, cng nh thnh
cng ca ti cc th trng ti chnh, xung quanh chng.
Gi thuyt hot ng ca ti - rng tt c cc kin trc con
ngi u sai st khng ch l phi khoa hc m cn c mt
sai st cn bn: n thc t khng ng. Nh chng ta thy,
c kh nng a ra cc tuyn b ng v xy dng cc l
thuyt ng n. Khoa hc t nhin l mt lu i v ci tr c
con ngi c kh nng to nn. D sao gi thuyt vn hot
ng trong thc tin. Cc kin trc ng n l him n mc
khi thy mt ci chng ta c xu hng lm n qu ti hay m
rng qu gii hn ring ca n. Phng php khoa hc l mt
T duy v Thc ti
__________________________________________________



31
th d tt: N hot ng i vi t nhin; v vy chng ta
mun dng n cho x hi. C ch th trng l mt trng
hp khc nh vy: N hot ng tt trong phn b ngun lc
gia cc nhu cu c nhn; v th chng ta b cm d da
vo n tho mn cc nhu cu cng cng. Tng t vi cc
nh ch: Mt khi chng c thit lp chng ta c xu
hng da vo chng ngay c sau khi chng mt tnh hp
l hay s bin minh ca chng. Mi nh ch gy ra yu im
vi thi gian tri i, nhng iu ny khng c ngha l n
khng ph hp hay phi hiu qu thi im c thit lp.
Thit lp cc nh ch, ging cc hot ng khc, c cc h
qu khng ch ; nhng hu qu nh vy khng th lng
trc c lc thit lp. Cho d chng c th, vn c th xy
ra, bi v cc h qu khng ch c th ny sinh trong tng
lai v gia chng nh ch c th tho mn nhu cu hin ti.
Nh th gi thuyt cng vic ca ti khng phi khng tng
thch vi tng rng mt tin trnh hnh ng l tt hn tin
trnh khc, rng thc ra c mt tin trnh hnh ng ti u ti
mt thi im v mt ch cho trc. N, tuy vy, ng rng
ti u ch p dng cho mt thi im c th trong lch s; ci
l ti u mt thi im c th thi l vy thi im k
tip. y l mt khi nim hc ba, c bit vi cc nh ch
khng th trnh khi sc no . Th d, mt dng thu c
hiu lc cng lu, th cng c kh nng l n s b lch; c th
c l do chnh ng thay i hnh thc nh thu sau mt
thi gian song khng c l khng nh thu. Ly mt v d
khc, Thin cha Gio tin ho thnh ci g kh khc
ci m Jesus hnh dung, song khng phi l l do bc
b cc gio hun ca Ngi. Chng ta c th gi cc kin trc
ca con ngi l sai st ch nu chng ta k vng chng hp l
vnh vin, nh cc qui lut khoa hc.
Ni cch khc, cc l thuyt v chnh sch sai st c th hu
ch tm thi thi im no ca lch s. Cc lm lc mu
m l cc kin trc sai st vi cc nh hng tt ban u. Cc
tc ng tt ko di bao lu ph thuc vo cc sai st c c
nhn ra v sa cha kp thi khng. Theo cch ny, cc kin
GEORGE SOROS
___________________________________________________

32

trc c th tr nn ngy cng tinh t (s tin ho ca ngn
hng trung ng l mt v d tt). Nhng chng c lm lc
mu m no c th ko di mi mi; cui cng, c hi ci tin
v pht trin n s cn kit, v mt lm lc mu m mi s
chim c tr tng tng ca con ngi. Ci m ti sp ni
c th l mt lm lc mu m, song ti thin v din gii lch
s cc tng nh bao gm cc lm lc mu m. Ngi khc
c th nhc n chng nh cc h thuyt: paradigms.
6

S kt hp ca hai tng ny d cho mi kin trc tr
tu u sai st, mt s trong chng l mu m - nm li ca
phin bn tnh c th sai trit ca ring ti. Gi thit cng
vic ca ti cho php ti hnh ng vi cc lm lc mu m.
Ti dng chng cho th gii bn ngoi v cc hot ng ring
ca mnh vi sinh lc nh nhau, v chng phc v ti tt
c nh nh qun l qu ln, gn y hn, nh mt nh t thin.
Liu cc tng ny cng s phc v ti tt vi t cch nh
t tng c kim chng ngay by gi, bi v tnh c th sai
trit to nn tng cho din gii cc th trng ti chnh v l
thuyt v lch s m ti dc sc lm cun sch ny.


Mt Ti bt Ring t

Tnh c th sai trit i vi ti khng ch l mt l thuyt
tru tng m cng l vn ca nim tin c nhn su sc.
Nh mt nh qun l qu, ti ph thuc rt nhiu vo xc
cm ring ca mnh, bi v ti thc c v nhng thiu
hiu bit ca mnh. Cc xc cm tri hn m ti hot ng
vi l s bt trc v s hi. Ti c nhng giy pht hi
vng, thm ch hn hoan, nhng cc xc cm ny lm cho ti
khng an ton; lo lng lm ti cm thy an ton hn. Nh th
nim vui ch thc duy nht m ti tri nghim l khi ti
khm ph ra ci g lm cho ti phi lo lng. Nhn chung,

6
Kuhn, The Structure of Scientific Revolutions.
T duy v Thc ti
__________________________________________________



33

ti thy qun l mt qu t bo him (hedge fund)
7
l cc k
vt v. Ti chng bao gi c th cng nhn thnh cng ca
mnh n c th ngn ti khi lo lng - nhng ti chng bn
khon tha nhn cc sai lm ca mnh.
Ti mi ch cht nhn ra gn y thi t ph phn ny l
l n th no. N lm ti ngc nhin l nhng ngi khc
ngc nhin v cch t duy ca ti. Khm ph ra mt sai lm
trong t duy hay cc v th u t ca ti l mt ngun vui
hn l s hi tic. iu c qu nhiu ngha i vi ti
n mc ti ngh n phi c ngha vi c nhng ngi
khc; nhng khng phi th. Hu ht mi ngi c ht sc
t chi hay che y cc sai lm ca mnh. Thc vy, cc quan
nim sai v hnh ng sai ca h tr thnh mt phn khng
tch ri ca tnh cch h. Ti s chng bao gi qun kinh
nghim ti c khi ving thm Argentina nm 1982 ng
ti ni n nn m t nc tch li. Ti tm mt s
cc chnh tr gia phc v cc chnh ph trc v hi h,
h s gii quyt tnh hnh ra sao. Tt c chng tr mt ai, h
u ni h s p dng cng cc chnh sch nh h theo
ui khi h cn nm quyn. Him khi ti gp nhiu ngi
n nh vy nhng ngi hc t n vy t kinh nghim.
Ti khng c phng i trng hp v mt thi t ph
phn. N khng th hot ng bi chnh n. N phi gn vi
mt mc thnh cng no mang li kt qu tch cc.
Mt thi t ph phn l mt phn ca mt qu trnh phn
thn ci c th l t tng cng theo c hai chiu. thc
c cc hn ch ca mnh, t n, khng gip khc phc
chng; tri li, s t-nghi ng c th d dng tr nn t-hp l
bng cch lm xi mn lng t tin. Ngc li, kh nng sa
cha sai lm nng cao thnh tch v thnh tch cao t ta vo
v th mnh nhn ra v sa cha sai lm. Ti bit ti ni v
ci g bi v ti tri qua c hai kinh nghim. Thi t ph

7
Cc qu t bo him tin hnh mt lot cc hot ng u t. Chng chuyn cho cc nh
u t tinh vi v khng phi chu cc qui ch c p dng cho cc qu h tng dnh cho
qung i qun chng. Cc nh qun l qu c n b trn c s thnh tch hn l mt t l
c nh ca ti sn. Cc qu thnh tch c th l mt m t chnh xc hn.
GEORGE SOROS
___________________________________________________

34
phn ca ti c trc khi ti dnh lu n th trng c phiu.
Ti may mn ri vo kinh doanh u t ni ti c th em
thi vo mc ch tt. Ti khng chc liu cng thi
y s t ra cng b ch ngang th trong vit cun sch ny.
Ti khng do d tha nhn cc sai lm ca mnh nhng iu
c th khng lm ti thnh cng nh ti lm trong th
trng c phiu.
Ti mang thi ph phn ny vo cc hot ng t
thin ca ti. Ti thy t thin y b n vi nhng nghch l
v hu qu khng ch . Th d, vic thin c th bin nhng
ngi nhn thnh cc i tng b th. Cho c gi thit l
gip ngi khc, nhng trong thc t n thng n thun ch
phc v cho s lm va lng ci ti ca ngi cho. Cn t
hn, ngi ta thng xuyn tin hnh vic thin bi v h
mun cm thy t t, ch khng v h mun lm iu thin.
Gi cc quan im ny, ti thy c bn phn i theo con
ng khc. Ti thy mnh c x theo cch nh trong kinh
doanh. Th d, trong kinh doanh ti khng n hn v vic lm
tn thng xc cm ca nhm u t ca ti khi thnh tch
ca qu u t ca ti b lm nguy; tng t, ti cho s mng
ca qu t thin a v cao hn quyn li ca nhn vin ca
qu hay ca c nhn nhng ngi xin tr cp. Ti thng ni
a rng qu chng ti l qu ght ngi duy nht trn th
gii. Ti nh vic gii thch quan im ca ti v cc qu ti
cuc hp nhn vin Karlovi Vari, Tip Khc, khong nm
1991, v ti chc chn nhng ngi hin din s chng bao
gi qun. Ti gii thch rng cc qu phi t s mng ca
mnh ln trn li ch ring ca chng nhm bin minh cho s
tn ti ca chng, nhng iu i ngc li bn cht con
ngi. Nh mt kt qu chng y ry tham nhng, v thiu
minh bch v mc tiu ca chng dn ti phi hiu qu. Ti
khng quan tm n c mt qu nh vy, v ti coi vic dp
b mt qu sa st l mt thnh tu ln hn i lp mt ci mi.
Phi th nhn ti du hn vi thi gian tri i. C mt
qu t thin l rt khc vi vic iu hnh mt qu t bo
him. V c bn thiu p lc bn ngoi, v ch c k lut ni
T duy v Thc ti
__________________________________________________



35
ti l ci gi cho thi ph phn sng ng. Hn na, ng
u mt qu t thin ln cn n qun l con ngi hn l
qun l tin. Ngi ta khng thch nghe cc nhn xt ph phn
- h mun khen ngi v ng vin. Khng nhiu ngi chia
s s thch nhn din sai lm ca ti, v cn t hn na nhng
ngi chia s nim vui ca ti trong vic tm thy n. l
nh lnh o hiu qu, phi lm hi lng ngi ta. Ti hc
kh khn nht ci dng nh l t nhin i vi cc chnh tr
gia v nhng ngi ng u cc cng ti.
Cng c mt nh hng khc tc ng. Ti phi xut hin
trc cng chng, v khi ti c k vng t ra rng r t
tin. Trong thc t, ti b ho mn bi thiu t tin, v ti thch
cm gic y. Ti rt tic mt n. C mt khong cch rng
gia con ngi cng khai ca ti v ci ti coi l thc mnh,
nhng ti thc c v quan h phn thn gia hai ci. Ti
theo di vi s kinh ngc s pht trin con ngi cng
chng nh hng n ti ra sao. Ti tr thnh mt
ngi ni ting c sc thuyt phc: charismatic. May thay,
ti khng hon ton tin vo mnh nh nhng ngi khc tin.
Ti c nh cc hn ch ca mnh, d l ti khng cm thy
chng su sc nh ti thng cm thy. Nhng cc nhn vt
c sc thu ht khc khng t ti a v lnh o ca h
theo cng l trnh. H khng c cng tr nh. H c l nh
rng h lun lun c khin ngi khc tin vo h, v cui
cng h thnh cng. Thiu t tin khng lm h ho mn,
v h khng cn kim ch s thi thc by t n. Chng
ngc nhin l thi ca h i vi tnh c th sai ca ring
h l khc. Hn na, nu h tha nhn cc nhc im, h c
th khng gi c v tr lnh o ca mnh. Ngi ta khng
mun lnh o ca mnh c th sai. l mt trong nhng
thiu st ti t nht ca cc nn dn ch ng thi ca chng
ta: Cc nh lnh o ca chng ta c gi vi cc tiu chun
m c l h khng th tho mn.
Tht hp dn xem con ngi cng chng mi t c
ca ti quan h th no vi bn ng trc ca ti nh nh
qun l qu. Khi ti cn l mt nh qun l qu tch cc, ti
GEORGE SOROS
___________________________________________________

36
lng trnh s cng khai; ti coi vic xut hin trn ba ca
mt tp ch ti chnh l mt n ch t. iu ny chng khc
g mt s m tn, nhng n c xc nhn tt bi kinh
nghim. D thy v sao. S cng khai c th gy ra cm gic
hoan h lng lng, v d cho ti c km nn n, n c th nm
ti khi s tin b ca mnh. V nu ti by t mt quan nim
th trng cng khai, ti c th thy kh thay i ca mnh.
Trong kip mi ca ti, cng lun ci ngi khc ngh v
ti ng mt vai tr quan trng hn. N lm cho ti kh
nng tho thun bun bn, thm ch thao tng cc th trng,
nhng n lm cho ti khng t cch qun l tin. Nhng li
ni ca ti c th lay ng th trng, mc d ti ht sc c
gng khng lm dng quyn nng . ng thi, ti mt
kh nng l mt nh qun l tin thnh cng. Ti trit ph
c ch au n v lo lng ci thng hng dn ti, v ng
thi con mt thin h trn thc tin lm cho l khng th i
vi ti i hot ng nh mt ngi tham gia t nhiu n danh.
C th thy rng hot ng trong cc th trng ti chnh
i hi mt li ngh khc cch cn thit hot ng trong
mt khung cnh x hi, chnh tr, hoc t chc - hoc thc ra
hot ng nh mt ngi bnh thng. i vi mt nh
qun l tin, ch c mt th c ch n: thnh tch. Tt c
cc cn nhc khc phi t xung di n. Th trng l mt
ngi c cng h khc: N khng cho php s b tha hay
quan tm n ngi khc. Ci m nhng ngi khc ngh v
bn l quan trng, song kt qu - o bng mt tiu chun
khch quan, tin quan trng hn. C mt tiu chun khch
quan khuyn khch thnh tch khch quan. l ci lm cho
cc th trng ti chnh hiu qu n vy: Chng bin con
ngi thnh ci my lm tin. iu c gi tr ca n, song
mt x hi b ch ng bi cc th trng ti chnh c th d
tr nn d man. y khng phi l ngh vin vng m l
mt mi nguy him hin thi.
Phin bn tnh c th sai trit m ti chp nhn nh mt
gi thit cng vic chc chn t ra hu hiu trong cc th
trng ti chnh. Thnh tch ca ti vt qu ci gi thuyt
T duy v Thc ti
__________________________________________________



37

bc ngu nhin
8
cho php vi mt chnh lch thuyt phc.
Liu n c p dng cho cc kha cnh khc ca s tn ti ca
con ngi? iu ph thuc vo mc ch ca chng ta l
g. Nu chng ta mun hiu thc ti, ti tin n hu ch; song
nu mc ch l thao tng thc ti, n s khng hot ng
tt. Sc thu ht (charisma) hot ng tt hn nhiu.

Quay li cm xc ring ca ti, ti hc cch thch nghi
vi thc ti mi trong ti hot ng. Ti thng thy s
pht biu ca ngi v bit n l ht sc phin nhiu, nhng ti
nhn ra rng y l mt phn x st li t nhng ngy ti
cn l nh qun l tin tch cc; Ti phi c ch dn bi cc
kt qu ca hnh ng ca ti, ch khng bi ci nhng ngi
khc ngh v chng. Ti vn b lng bit n lm cho lng
tng, v ti vn tin rng lm vic thin - nu n ng ca ngi-
phi t thnh tu ca s mng ca n ln trn vic lm va
lng bn ng. Tuy nhin, ti sn lng nhn li khen, bi v
vic lm t thin ca ti thc ra tho mn iu kin ny. Liu
n c th tip tc nh th di nh sng ca s thay i thi
ca ti v s ca ngi l vn lm ti lo lng, nhng
chng no ti cn lo lng th cu tr li c l s vn l khng
nh.

8
Gi thuyt bc ngu nhin (random walk) cho rng cc th trng ti chnh lm cho mi
thng tin l sn c cho mi ngi tham gia. N cho rng, trn c s k vng duy l trong mt
th trng hiu qu, khng ai c th thng th trng mt cch nht qun.
CHNG 2

Ph phn Kinh t hc









nh c th sai v phn thn t ra nhng vn nghim
trng cho khoa hc x hi ni chung v cho l thuyt
kinh t ni ring. Ti mun kho st cc vn ny chi
tit mt cht, cho d n buc chng ta lu hn trong lnh
vc tru tng tinh vi. Khi ti ni rng cc n ca tnh phn
thn cn cha c hiu mt cch thch ng, ti ch yu
ngh n cc vn ny. Chng ta cn hiu chng tt hn
t nn tng l thuyt cho ci ti gi l mt x hi m ton
cu.
T
Cc vn c th nhm li di hai tiu . Mt lin quan
n i tng ch th, mt lin quan n nh quan st. Ti s
tho lun chng theo th t ny, mc d hai lnh vc vn
c quan h vi nhau.


Tnh Phn thn trong cc Hin tng X hi

Chng ta cn s hiu bit c bn v phng php khoa hc
hot ng ra sao. Cho mc ch ca tho lun ny, ti s vin
dn n l thuyt phng php khoa hc ca Karl Popper. M
hnh n gin v tao nh ca ca Popper cho thy cc hin
tng c th c th khin mang li nhng khi qut ho c
gi tr ph qut ra sao v n lt chng c th c s dng
th no gii thch v tin on cc hin tng c th. M
Ph phn Kinh t hc
__________________________________________________



39
hnh bao gm ba thnh phn v ba thao tc. Ba thnh phn l
cc iu kin ban u c th, cc iu kin cui cng c th,
v nhng khi qut ho mang tnh gi thuyt. Cc iu kin
ban u v cui cng c th c xc minh bng quan st trc
tip; cc gi thuyt khng th c xc minh, ch c th
chng minh l sai. Ba thao tc khoa hc c bn l tin on,
gii thch, v kim tra. Mt khi qut ho mang tnh gi
thuyt c th kt hp vi cc iu kin ban u c bit
cho mt tin on c th. N c th kt hp vi cc iu kin
cui cng c th cho mt gii thch. V gi thuyt khng
ph thuc vo thi gian, hai thao tc tin on v gii thch
c tnh thun nghch. iu ny cho php kim chng, bng
cch so snh bt k s lng no ca cc iu kin ban u v
cui cng xem liu chng c ph hp vi gi thuyt khng.
Chng s lng kim chng no s xc minh mt gi thuyt,
nhng chng no mt gi thuyt cha c chng minh l sai
(falsify) n c th c chp nhn nh c hiu lc tm thi.
M hnh khng bt phi m t cc nh khoa hc lm vic
th no trong thc tin; n ch ra, v l thuyt, khi qut ho
c kh nng tin on v gii thch cc s kin n nht c
th c xc lp ra sao. Mt khi qut ho khng th c
kim chng; l nu n cha c chng minh l sai, min
l n c th c chng minh l sai bng trc nghim. Gi tr
chnh ca kin trc ny l ch n trnh cc cm by ca lp
lun quy np. Chng ta khng cn khng khng rng mt tri
s lun lun mc ng ng ch bi v ngy no n cng
mc nh vy; l nu chng ta chp nhn gi thuyt mt
cch tm thi - tc l, cho n khi n c chng minh l sai.
y l mt li gii rt tao nh cho ci nu khc i th l mt
vn logic khng th vt qua c. Mo l ch phn bit
gia kim chng v chng minh l sai. N cho php cc gi
thuyt cung cp nhng tin on v gii thch m khng c
ni kim chng. Bn thn tin on v gii thch c th l tt
nh hay xc sut, ph thuc vo bn cht ca gi thuyt.
Nhn ra s bt i xng gia kim chng v chng minh l
sai, theo ti, l ng gp to ln nht ca Popper khng ch
GEORGE SOROS
___________________________________________________

40

cho trit hc khoa hc m cho c hiu bit ca chng ta v th
gii chng ta sng. N ho gii cc thnh tu khoa hc vi
tng rng chn l cui cng l ngoi tm vi ca chng ta.
C l cha c nhn mnh rng cc gi thuyt phi c
gi tr bt tn lm cho trc nghim kh thi. Nu mt kt
qu ring khng th c ti to, th trc nghim khng th
c coi l thuyt phc. Nhng tnh phn thn gy ra cc qu
trnh lch s khng o ngc c; cho nn n khng thch
hp cho khi qut ho c gi tr c lp vi thi gian. Chnh
xc hn, nhng khi qut ho c th c a ra v cc s
kin phn thn khng th c trc nghim, bi v cc iu
kin ban u v cui cng khng th c ti to. Chng c
th thm ch mang li nhng d on v gii thch c xc sut
cao, nhng xc sut ca chng khng th c o theo cch
ht nh trng hp mt gi thuyt c th kim tra c. S
thc rng chui s kin no ph bin trong qu kh vi
tn sut no khng ko theo rng xc sut ca n vn s
th trong tng lai. Ngc li, s khm ph ra phn b xc
sut chc hn s thay i n.
9
y c s tng t no
vi nguyn l bt nh Heisenberg, nhng c mt s khc bit
c bn: Trong c lng t, chnh mt hnh ng - c th l,
php o - l ci xen vo; cn trong cc th trng ti chnh v
cc tnh th phn thn, li chnh t duy hay lng tin l ci nh
hng n ch th m n dn chiu n.
im ti va nu khng h lm mt hiu lc ca m hnh
tao nh ca Popper v phng php khoa hc mt cht no.
M hnh vn c hiu lc; n ch khng p dng cho cc hin
tng phn thn. S hn ch ny, tuy vy, ko s ch n
mt chia tch quan trng gia khoa hc t nhin v x hi,
bi v tnh phn thn ch xut hin khi tnh th c ngi tham
gia bit suy ngh. Chnh s chia tch ny bn thn Popper
khng chu cng nhn. ng xut hc thuyt s thng nht
ca khoa hc, cho rng cng cc phng php v tiu chun
p dng cho c khoa hc t nhin v x hi. Hc thuyt ny

9
Ti cho mt th d c th lin quan n cng ti Long Term Capital Management Chng
10.
Ph phn Kinh t hc
__________________________________________________



41
cho php ng chng minh rng cc l thuyt nh Ch ngha
Marx khng c t cch l khoa hc bi v chng khng th c
kh nng c chng minh l sai. Ti c quan him hi khc.
Ti cho rng cc hin tng phn thn ni chung khng hp
vi m hnh Popper v phng php khoa hc v rng
khng ch Ch ngha Marx l khng khoa hc. Thuyt th
trng chnh thng, a ra s bin minh khoa hc ca n t
kinh t hc thuc xu hng chnh, cng l h t tng gi
mo nh Ch ngha Marx.
C s khc bit cn bn gia khoa hc t nin v khoa hc
x hi cn phi c nhn ra mt cch ng n. hiu n
tt hn, chng ta phi xem xt vn th hai: quan h ca cc
nh quan st khoa hc vi i tng ch th ca h.


Tnh Phn thn v cc Nh Khoa hc X hi

Khoa hc l mt qu trnh x hi, v nh vy n c tim nng
l phn thn. Cc nh khoa hc kt ni vi i tng ch th
ca mnh nh nhng ngi tham gia v nh quan st, nhng
nt ni bt ca phng php khoa hc - nh c minh ho
trong m hnh Popper - l hm tham gia khng c php can
thip vo hm nhn thc. Khoa hc c dnh hiu bit
thc ti, v nhm mc ch ny s thc c cch li nghim
ngt khi cc tuyn b khoa hc dn chiu ti n. S thc
thuc v mt v tr, tuyn b thuc mt v tr khc. Theo
cch ny, s thc c th dng nh tiu chun c lp theo
tnh ng n hay hp l ca tuyn b c th c nh gi.
Cc nh khoa hc tham gia vo cc th nghim, nhng c ht
sc khng nh hng n kt qu. Cc th nghim phi c
th c lp li bi ngi khc c t cch l khoa hc.
Trong thc t, cc iu kin l tng ny khng thnh hnh,
ngay c trong khoa hc t nhin. La chn cc l thuyt cng
nh hng n s la chn s thc kim tra chng; h qu
l, v tr trong mt khoa hc hot ng khng nht thit l
ht nh v tr m n cho rng n m t. Tuy vy, s tch bit
GEORGE SOROS
___________________________________________________

42
gia v tr s thc v v tr cc tuyn b vn khng b vi
phm, v cc s thc tip tc cung cp mt tiu chun c lp
nh gi tnh ng n ca cc tuyn b. Tt c iu
xy ra khi mt khoa hc gn cho mt tp c th cc s thc l
v tr to bi cc tuyn b khng tip gip vi th gii
chng ta sng. Khi s khc nhau gia hai ci tr nn qu hin
nhin, p lc dn ti s chuyn dch h thuyt. y l mt c
im quan trng ca lch s khoa hc.
Khoa hc c mt lch s, v lch s l phn thn. Cc
gi thuyt dn ti nhng khm ph v pht minh c gi tr tr
nn ni ting; khi tim nng ca n cn kit chng c xu
hng mt nh hng ca mnh trong tm tr con ngi v c
nhiu kh nng tip thu cho nhng cch nhn nhn khc v s
vt. l cch chuyn dch h thuyt din ra. Chnh bn thn
Popper hon ton thc c iu ny: ng khuyn ti
c Thomas Kuhn v Paul Feyerabend. Thomas Kuhn, tt
nhin, l ngi sng to ra thut ng chuyn dch h thuyt.
Cc khoa hc x hi thm ch cn xa vi cc iu kin l
tng c m hnh Popper ly lm nh hn cc khoa hc
t nhin. l v cc s thc c khoa hc x hi nghin
cu bao gm cc tng v lng tin; s tch bit c sn gia
tuyn b v s thc c trng cho khoa hc t nhin khng
thnh hnh y. C th c kh nng gi cho tuyn b ca
cc nh khoa hc v tuyn b thuc v i tng ch th tch
bch nhau, nhng iu i hi mt n lc c thc. N
lc l cn lm cho vic xc lp tnh ng n ca cc tuyn
b khoa hc l c th. iu ny nu ra cu hi hu nh khng
cn t ra trong khoa hc t nhin: Mc ch ca khoa hc l
g? hiu thc ti hay bin n lm li cho chng ta?
Trong khoa hc t nhin, s thc (khc vi la chn cc s
thc) khng th b thay i bi a ra cc tuyn b v n.
Thc ti khng th c bin thnh c li cho chng ta m
khng hiu n trc tin. Cc th nghim c th b gi mo,
nhng vic gi mo nht thit b pht hin bi v th nghim
phi c kh nng c lp li bi ngi khc. V th gian ln
khng c ngha. C kh nng la chn cc s thc cho
Ph phn Kinh t hc
__________________________________________________



43
kho st, nhng ngay c kha cnh ny cng c li tin
cng gn n thc t cng tt, bi v chng ta c th c li
t s hiu bit ca mnh tt hn nhiu nu n lin h n thc
ti hn l n mt v tr nhn to no .
Khng phi vy vi khoa hc x hi. Khi v tr cc s thc
cha cc tuyn b, cc tuyn b v s thc c th tng tc
mt cch phn thn, iu c ngha l cc tuyn b c th lm
thay i s thc thng qua quyt nh ca nhng ngi tham
gia. iu ny ng c vi cc nh khoa hc ln vi nhng
ngi m h nghin cu, bi v khng c s cch li c sn
gia cc tuyn b v s thc, nh trng hp khoa hc t
nhin. Cc nh khoa hc phi c n lc c bit gi cho
cc tuyn b ca mnh khi nh hng n i tng ch th
m chng dn chiu ti. l ni m cu hi v mc ch ca
khoa hc vo cuc chi.
Chng no s cch li gia cc tuyn b v s thc cn kn
k, chng c nghi ng g v mc ch ca khoa hc: thu
nhn tri thc. Mc ch ca ring cc nh khoa hc c th
khc. Mt s c th theo ui tri thc v tri thc, ngi khc
v li ch n c th mang li cho nhn loi, nhng ngi khc
na li v thng tin c nhn. Bt lun ng c l g, thc o
thnh cng, tuy vy, l tri thc, v n l mt tiu chun khch
quan. Nhng ngi tm thng tin c nhn c th lm vy ch
bng cch a ra cc tuyn b ng; nu h gi mo th
nghim, h nht nh b tm ra. Nhng ngi mun bt t
nhin theo mun ca h c th lm vy ch bng cch thu
nhn tri thc trc tin. T nhin i theo din tin ca n bt
chp mi l thuyt lin quan n n; v vy chng ta c th
lm cho t nhin phc v nhu cu ca mnh ch bng hiu cc
qui lut iu khin hnh vi ca n. Khng c ng tt no.
i n nhn ra nguyn l cn bn ny l qu trnh lu
di. Hng ngn nm, ngi ta th loi ma thut, nghi l,
v m tng tc ng n t nhin mt cch trc tip; h
min cng chp nhn nguyn l khc nghit m phng
php khoa hc p t. Cc qui c ca phng php khoa hc
mt nhiu thi gian chng t tnh u vit ca chng,
GEORGE SOROS
___________________________________________________

44
nhng cui cng, khi khoa hc tip tc mang li nhng pht
minh c tc ng mnh m, n t a v ngang vi ca ma
thut trong cc thi i trc. Thng nht v mc ch, s
chp thun cc qui c nht nh, s sn c mt tiu chun
khch quan, kh nng thit lp nhng khi qut ho khng
ph thuc vo thi gian - tt c nhng th ny kt hp li lm
cho khoa hc thnh cng. N c tha nhn ngy nay nh
thnh tu tuyt ho ca tr tu con ngi.
S kt hp p ny b tranh ci khi i tng ch th l
phn thn. Mt mt, cc kt qu tch cc t c kh hn,
bi v i tng ch th khng thch ng cho khm ph ra
nhng khi qut ho hp l mi mi (v v th c th kim tra)
ci c thm quyn l cc nh lut khoa hc. Xt v bng
chng, chng ta c th thy cc thnh tu ca khoa hc x hi
khng so snh c vi khoa hc t nhin. Mt khc, tnh c
lp ca tiu chun khch quan - c th l, cc s thc - b suy
yu. iu ny lm cho kh thc thi cc qui c khoa hc. S
thc c th b nh hng bi to ra lng tin hoc bi xut
cc l thuyt v chng. iu ny ng khng ch vi nhng
ngi tham gia m c vi cc nh khoa hc. Tnh phn thn
ng mt s chp mch gia cc tuyn b v s thc, v s
chp mch ny l sn c cho cc nh khoa hc cng nh
nhng ngi tham gia.
y l mt im quan trng. Hy ti lm sng t n
bng so snh tnh bt nh lin quan n phn thn v tnh bt
nh quan st c trong hnh vi ca cc ht lng t. Tnh
bt nh l ging nhau, song quan h ca nh quan st ti i
tng ch th th khng. ng x ca cc ht lng t vn nh
th bt lun nguyn l bt nh Heisenberg c c nhn ra
hay khng. Nhng hnh vi ca con ngi c th b tc ng
bi cc l thuyt khoa hc ht nh bi cc nim tin khc. Th
d, phm vi ca nn kinh t th trng m rng v ngi ta
tin vo s thn k ca th trng. Trong khoa hc t nhin, cc
l thuyt khng th lm thay i cc hin tng m chng lin
quan ti; trong khoa hc x hi, chng c th. iu ny gy ra
mt yu t bt nh thm, thiu nguyn l Heisenberg. Yu
Ph phn Kinh t hc
__________________________________________________



45
t bt nh thm ny lin quan ti vai tr ca nh quan st
khoa hc v nh hng ca cc l thuyt khoa hc.
Phi th nhn, nh khoa hc c th phng xa cch li cc
tuyn b ca h khi i tng - th d, bng cch gi kn cc
tin on ca mnh. Nhng v sao h phi lm vy? Mc ch
ca khoa hc l thu lm tri thc v tri thc hay v li ch
khc no ? Vi khoa hc t nhin, vn khng ni ln v
li ch c th c thc hin ch bng cch u tin nhn
c tri thc. Khng phi vy vi khoa hc x hi: Tnh phn
thn cho mt con ng tt. Mt l thuyt khng cn ng
tc ng ln hnh vi con ngi. ng thi, tin cy ca s
thc nh mt tiu chun khch quan b tn thng. Bng cch
ny, c kh nng xut cc li tin tri t-tho mn.
Cn c vo uy tn m khoa hc c sn, xut mt l thuyt
cho l khoa hc c th l mt cch hu hiu nh hng ln
thc ti; n tc ng cng nhiu ln i tng m n dn
chiu, cng tt. Karl Marx lm iu mt cch c thc,
v din gii ca ng v lch s l kh bc b. Thc vy, Karl
Popper phi pht trin mt l l tinh vi lm mt uy tn
hc thuyt Marxist bng cch chng t l n khng khoa hc.
Ti tn thnh l l ca Popper, song ti mun i mt bc
na: Ti cho rng s lm dng l thuyt khoa hc cho cc mc
ch chnh tr khng ch gii hn cc h t tng ton tr; n
p dng cho thuyt th trng chnh thng vi ngha ngang
nhau. L thuyt kinh t c in d b lm dng cho cc mc
ch chnh tr nh (hay nh) hc thuyt Marxist.
Ti c bit nghi ng quan nim cn bng. N ng mt
trng thi ng mong mi, mt im ngh khng th c ci
thin. Nhng ngi theo thuyt th trng chnh thng cho
rng cc th trng c xu hng tin ti cn bng v rng mi
s can thip chnh tr u c hi. c ch ra rng trong
nhiu trng hp khng c im cn bng xc nh duy nht.
John Maynard Keynes chng minh rng nn kinh t c th
t cn bng m khng c ton dng lao ng. Trong l thuyt
kinh t hin i, kh nng v nhiu im cn bng c
tha nhn rng ri. Th nhng t tng rng cc th trng c
GEORGE SOROS
___________________________________________________

46

xu hng tin ti cn bng vn cn v c dng nh mt c
s t nhn l khoa hc cho thuyt th trng chnh thng.
10

Th d c in v cc nh gi khoa hc c th p t ch
ca h ln i tng ch ca h l n lc bin kim loi
kim thnh vng. Cc nh gi kim thut cm ci bn ni
chng ca h cho n cui cng c thuyt phc b vic
lm do thiu thnh cng. S tht bi ca h l khng th
trnh khi bi v hnh vi ca cc kim loi kim b chi phi bi
cc nh lut c hiu lc ph qut nhng ci khng th b thay
i bi bt k tuyn b, s hin thn, hay nghi l no. Cc nh
gi kim thut thi trung c nhm ln. Cc kim loi kim
khng th bin thnh vng nh truyn kip, nhng ngi ta c
th tr nn giu c trong cc th trng ti chnh hay hng
mnh trong chnh tr bng xut cc l thuyt gi v cc li
tin tri t tho mn. Hn na, c hi thnh cng ca h tng
ln nu h c th i lt khoa hc. ng lu l c Marx v
Sigmund Freud ln ting i a v khoa hc cho cc hc
thuyt ca mnh v t c s cho nhiu kt lun ca h nh uy
quyn m h nhn c do l khoa hc. Mt khi iu ny
c thm nhun, chnh t khoa hc x hi tr nn ng
ng; n tr thnh mt cm t thn diu c cc nh gi kim
thut x hi dng p t ch ca mnh ln i tng ch
th ca h thng qua s truyn kip hc c.
Cc nh khoa hc x hi rt nhc nhn th bt chc
khoa hc t nhin song vi rt t thnh cng. N lc ca h
thng mang li chng my hn mt s nhi li khoa hc t
nhin. Ch khi h t b s tng t gi v theo ui i tng
ch th ca h bt lun n c th dn ti u th h mi to ra
cc kt qu ng gi. Vi cng trnh hay nht c t trong
bi cnh lch s thay cho nhm ti tnh hp l ph qut,
nhng vn khng tho mn cc i hi ca m hnh Popper.
Cc l thuyt hp l ph hp vi khun mu tht ho hon.

10
Ti phi ch ra, tuy vy, rng du cho hu ht cc nh kinh t tn thnh khi nim cn bng,
h khng nht thit l ngi theo thuyt th trng chnh thng (market fundamentalist). Hn
na, khi nim phn thn ngy cng c tha nhn trong l thuyt kinh t ng thi. Xem,
th d, Maurice Obstfeld, Models of Currency Crises with Self-Fulfilling Features,
European Economic Review (April 1996).
Ph phn Kinh t hc
__________________________________________________



47
S bt chc m qung khoa hc t nhin n khp tt vi
khi nim tnh c th sai trit ca ti. Tnh c th sai trit
da vo i hi phi th nhn l cng iu rng tt c cc
kin trc ca con ngi u sai st. Phng php khoa hc
lm xi mn i hi bng a ra nhng khi qut ho tin
on v gii thch cc nt c trng ca t nhin. Th nhng,
chnh xc v khoa hc t nhin thnh cng kinh ngc n
vy, m khoa hc x hi c k vng c cng kh nng nh
th i vi x hi. Mt phng php hot ng mt lnh
vc c m rng ra cho lnh vc khc ni n t thch hp
hn. y c s tng t vi cc i hi qu ng c a
ra cho c ch th trng. Chnh v cc th trng hu ch
n vy trong t chc hot ng kinh t, by gi chng c
k vng cung cp cu tr li cho mi vn v t chc x hi.
C s khc bit ct yu gia tht bi ca cc nh khoa hc
x hi v tht bi ca cc nh gi kim thut. Mc d tht bi
ca cc nh gi kim l hon ton, cc nh khoa hc x hi
chim ot thm quyn ca khoa hc t nhin tm c
cch li du n ln x hi. Hnh vi ca con ngi chnh
xc v n khng b chi phi bi thc ti - d dng b tc ng
bi cc hc thuyt. Trong lnh vc cc hin tng t nhin,
phng php khoa hc c hiu qu ch khi cc l thuyt l
ng; nhng trong cc vn x hi, chnh tr, v kinh t, cc
l thuyt c th c hiu lc m khng cn ng. Mc d gi
kim thut tht bi vi t cch l khoa hc, khoa hc x hi
c th thnh cng vi t cch gi kim thut.


Karl Popper thy mi nguy him l cc h t tng li
dng uy tn khoa hc nh hng n din tin ca lch s;
mi him nguy tr nn c bit nghim trng trong trng
hp ca Ch ngha Marx. bo v phng php khoa hc
khi loi lm dng ny, ng tuyn b rng cc l thuyt
khng th c chng minh l c th sai khng t cch l
khoa hc. Nhng nu dng m hnh Popper v phng php
khoa hc nh tiu chun, th rt t l thuyt x hi t. Tnh
GEORGE SOROS
___________________________________________________

48
phn thn gy ra mt hnh mu duy nht, khng thun nghch
khng thch hp cho ti to v kim tra. L thuyt kinh t
c ht sc loi tr tnh phn thn nhm c t cch l khoa
hc, v n tr nn xa vi vi thc t; ngay c vy, n
chng th trnh khi b lm dng cho cc mc ch chnh tr.
Th d, cc nh kinh t ht cch trnh a ra phn xt
gi tr, song chnh v s thc m cc l thuyt ca h b
nhng ngi ch trng laissez-faire chim ot v dng nh
c s cho phn x gi tr trn lan nht c th hnh dung ra:
rng chng c kt qu x hi no tt hn cc kt qu c th
tng t c di cnh tranh th trng.
Theo ti, c cch bo v phng php khoa hc tt
hn cch Popper gi . Tt c ci cn lm l i tuyn b rng
khoa hc x hi khng c c a v m chng ta ban cho
khoa hc t nhin. iu ny s chn cc l thuyt x hi khi
tr hnh trong b o gip i mn; n cng cn vic bt chc
m qung khoa hc t nhin cc lnh vc khng thch hp.
N khng cm nghin cu khoa hc hnh vi con ngi, nhng
n gip gim k vng ca chng ta v kt qu. Gi ca ti
cng to nn mt s mt a v ng k i vi cc nh khoa
hc x hi, v th n chc khng c h a chung lm.
Qui c m ti xut - tc a v khoa hc ca cc khoa
hc x hi - s c ch li cho php chng ta chu chp nhn
cc hn ch v hiu bit ca chng ta. N s gii phng khoa
hc x hi khi tri buc m s theo ui a v khoa hc
p buc ln n. l ci ti xut trong Gi Kim thut Ti
chnh khi ti gi rng khoa hc x hi l mt n d sai. M
hnh Popper c kt qu vi nhng khi qut ho khng ph
thuc vo thi gian. Phn thn l mt qu trnh khng thun
nghch, gn vi thi gian v sao n phi hp vi m hnh
Popper? C th c nhng cch hiu cc hin tng x hi
tt hn xut cc l thuyt c hiu lc ph qut. Mt cch
tip cn c bit ha hn ni ln trong nhng nm gn y:
nghin cu cc qu trnh tin ho khng thun nghch v thit
k cc m hnh phi tuyn m t chng. Cc m hnh ny
khng hp vi m hnh Popper v phng php khoa hc -
Ph phn Kinh t hc
__________________________________________________



49
chng khng cho php kim tra cc nh lut ph qut -
nhng chng c cho cc thut gii c th hu dng.
Tha nhn cc hn ch ca khoa hc x hi khng c ngha
l chng ta phi t b vic theo ui chn l trong khm ph
cc hin tng x hi. N ch c ngha l theo ui chn l i
hi chng ta nhn ra rng mt s kha cnh ca hnh vi con
ngi khng b chi phi bi cc nh lut c hiu lc mi mi.
iu ny phi c v chng ta khai ph nhng con ng khc
hiu bit, nh ti lm trong cun sch ny. Tm chn l
cng buc chng ta phi tha nhn l cc hin tng x hi c
th b tc ng bi cc l thuyt c a ra gii thch
chng. Nh mt h qu, nghin cu cc hin tng x hi c
th c thc y bi cc mc tiu khc s theo ui chn l.
l s tht lm c s cho qui c m ti xut. Cch tt
nht phng s lm dng phng php khoa hc l i
tha nhn rng cc l thuyt x hi khng xng ng a v
m chng ta ban cho khoa hc t nhin. iu ny khng ngn
cn cc l thuyt ring bit xc lp a v khoa hc trn cng
lao ring ca n, nhng n cn tr cc nh l lun khi s i
lt khoa hc.
Ng vo lch s, kh thot khi kt lun rng phi c s
khc bit cn bn gia khoa hc t nhin v x hi. Nng lc
ca loi ngi i vi t nhin tng ln rt nhanh, song
khng c s tin b tng ng trong gii quyt cc vn
chnh tr v x hi. Hu ht nhng tin b v iu kin x hi,
nh ci thin tiu chun sng hay tui th d tnh, c th qui
cho khoa hc t nhin, ch khng cho khoa hc x hi. Thc
vy, cc xung t x hi tr nn tn ph hn bi v chng ta
c c s kim sot tng ln i vi cc lc t nhin. Kh
nng git ln nhau ca chng ta tng ln rt nhiu. n
lc chng ta phi nhn ra iu v tm nhng cch mi
gii quyt v kim ch xung t.



GEORGE SOROS
___________________________________________________

50
Mt Ph phn L thuyt Kinh t


L thuyt kinh t l mt n lc i xa nht m phng khoa
hc t nhin, v n thnh cng nht. Vt l hc Newton
truyn cm hng cho cc nh kinh t hc c in. H nhm
ti thit lp nhng nh lut c hiu lc ph qut c th dng
gii thch v tin on ng x kinh t v hi vng t mc
tiu bng cch da vo khi nim cn bng. Cn bng l
gi m ti cu v cung c lm cho thng bng v khng
ngi mua hay ngi bn no khng c tho mn. N l
mt khi nim hp l r rng trong mt th trng ni nhng
ngi mua v ngi bn n vi nhau tin hnh trao i t
do. N cho php phn tch kinh t tp trung vo kt qu cui
cng v b qua nhng nhiu lon tm thi. iu ny chun b
c s cho cc qui tc c hiu lc mi mi v vai tr to cn
bng ca cc th trng.
Khi nim cn bng l kh d lm ln. N c v v ci g
mang tnh kinh nghim, nhng n tng khng c
bin minh. Bn thn cn bng him khi quan st c trong
i sng thc t (gi c th trng c thi xu thay i tht
thng). Qu trnh c th quan st c gi thit tin ti cn
bng, nhng cn bng c th chng bao gi t c. ng l
nhng ngi tham gia th trng iu chnh ti gi th trng,
nhng h c th iu chnh ti mt mc tiu chuyn ng lin
tc. Trong trng hp , ni v mt qu trnh iu chnh
c th l mt s nhm tn.
Cn bng l sn phm ca mt h thng tin . L thuyt
kinh t c xy dng ging nh logic hay ton hc: N da
trn cc nh no , v tt c mi kt lun ca n c
dn ra t chng bng thao tc logic. Gi tr ln lao ca n l
n thch hp vi x l ton hc: Cn bng c th c trnh
by di dng cc phng trnh.
Kh nng rng cn bng c th chng bao gi t c
khng lm mt hiu lc ca kin trc logic. Ch khi mt cn
bng mang tnh gi thuyt c trnh by nh mt m hnh
Ph phn Kinh t hc
__________________________________________________



51
cho thc ti th s mo m ng k c a vo. Hnh hc
v thin vn hc l cc h thng tin c hiu lc hon ho,
nhng chng gy ra cc din gii sai v thc ti, nh lng tin
rng tri t phng hay l trung tm ca v tr (v ta bit ci
g xy ra vi nhng ngi nghi ng cc s tht nh vy).
L thuyt kinh t xut pht bng cch coi cc ng cu v
cung c cho trc mt cch tch bit; s tng tc ca cc
ng cu v cung sau xc nh im cn bng. Kin trc
ny cho cu v cung l cc i lng xc nh v c th o
c. Chng i ti cc bn i din ca bn cn, v mt qu
trnh iu chnh a chng thng bng nhau. Khi nhng ngi
bn bit h sn lng cung cp vi gi bao nhiu v ngi mua
bit h sn sng mua vi gi bao nhiu, tt c ci cn xy ra
t cn bng l th trng tm ra gi duy nht khp cu v
cung. Nhng nu bn thn nhng bin ng gi lm thay i
thin ca nhng ngi mua v ngi bn trao i hng
ho ca h gi cho trc, th d, bi v mt s gim gi lm
cho h k vng gi c s rt hn na trong tng lai th sao?
Kh nng ny, mt s thc chi phi cuc sng trong cc th
trng ti chnh cng nh trong cc ngnh vi tin b cng
ngh nhanh chng, n gin b l i.
L thuyt kinh t c in l a con ca thi i Khai sng.
Chng ta thy thi Khai sng c gng thit lp thm
quyn ca l tr bng cch coi thc ti nh ci g th ng
ch c hiu. L tr khi c th t ti tri thc bng a
ra cc tuyn b tng ng vi s thc. Thnh tu khoa hc
xut sc ca thi Khai sng l vt l hc Newton, v l thuyt
kinh t tm cch bt chc n. Cn bng l mt khi nim
kiu Newton, v l thuyt kinh t st sng chp nhn n. Nu
t duy c th tch bit khi thc ti, th cu, mt yu t c
bn l ch quan, cng th c th tch bit khi cung, mt yu
t ch yu l khch quan. Tng hp hnh vi ca nhng ngi
tham gia khc nhau gy ra nhng kh khn, nhng c th
khc phc chng bng cch a ra nh coi hiu bit l
hon ho. L thuyt cnh tranh hon ho gi thit tri thc hon
ho. Gi thit rt hp vi quan nim ca thi Khai sng v th
GEORGE SOROS
___________________________________________________

52

gii, nhng khng vt qua c s kim tra ph phn. Hiu
bit hon ho c th t ra l mt gi thit qu tham vng, v
n c thay th bng thng tin hon ho. Mt mnh thng
tin hon ho, tuy vy, khng h tr l thuyt cnh
tranh hon ho, th nn n phi c cng c bng ci
Lionel Robbins
11
gi l mt qui c phng php lun: Cc
iu kin cung v cu c coi c nh l c xc nh mt
cch c lp. Nhim v ca l thuyt kinh t, Robbins lp
lun, l i nghin cu khng phi cc iu kin ca cung
v cu m l nghin cu cc mi quan h gia chng. V vy
l thuyt kinh t c th coi cc iu kin v cung v cu nh
c cho trc v chng t, vi s gip ca cc phng
trnh, th trng c th phn b nhng ngun lc hn ch gia
v s mc ch v a cung v cu n cn bng ra sao.
L l ca Lionel Robbins, rt c nh hng nm mi
nm trc khi ti hc kinh t hc di s ch dn ca ng, v
c bn b qun, nhng s cch li kn k gia cung v cu
vn hn su trong phn tch kinh t. Vi t cch mt sinh
vin, ti thy gii php ca Robbins ng ch trch bi v n
loi b phn hi phn thn bng mt s ln trnh phng
php lun. N cho php cc nh kinh t hc tip tc coi cc
th trng nh mt c ch thun tu th ng m vai tr duy
nht ca n l phn nh cc lc lng ca cu v cung.
Kh nng rng nhng bin ng gi c th trng c th lm
thay i dng ca cc ng cu v cung n gin b pht l
i. S thi thc sau cch tip cn ny l kht vng to ra
cc kt qu so snh c vi vt l hc Newton. N lm trch
hng ch khi cc th trng nh mt nh ch (ci, theo
tnh c th sai trit , nht thit c sai st mc t nhiu)
v duy tr mi mi o tng v cc th trng hon ho.
Gi thit rng cc ng cu v cung c cho trc mt
cch c lp l cn xc nh gi th trng. Khng c n,
gi c s khng c xc nh mt cch duy nht. Cc nh
kinh t hc s b tc mt kh nng a ra nhng khi qut

11
Lionel Robbins, An Essay on the Nature and Significance of Economic Science (London:
Macmillan, 1969).
Ph phn Kinh t hc
__________________________________________________



53
ho so snh c vi ca khoa hc t nhin. tng rng cc
iu kin v cung v cu c th bng cch no ph thuc
ln nhau hay ph thuc vo ng x th trng c th xem l
phi l i vi nhng ngi xy dng l thuyt kinh t; th m
chnh xc l ci khi nim phn thn ng v l ci m
ng x ca cc th trng ti chnh chng t.
Gi thit v cc iu kin v cung v cu c cho trc
mt cch c lp loi b kh nng ca bt k tng tc phn
thn no. S b st quan trng n u? Tnh phn thn quan
trng th no trong ng x ca cc th trng v cc nn kinh
t? Trong phn tch kinh t vi m, c th an ton khng cn
m xa n tnh phn thn; khi n vi kinh t v m, s b
qua l nghim trng hn. iu ny tng ng vi s phn bit
chng ta a ra gia cc s kin nhm chn v cc s kin
lch s. Ti s kim tra nh ny chng tip, dng cc
th trng ti chnh nh phng th nghim ca ti.


Vn v cc Gi tr

Ti mun hon tt ph phn l thuyt kinh t bng kho st
vn gi tr. L thuyt kinh t coi s thch ca ngi tham
gia th trng l cho trc. Di chiu bi qui c phng
php lun ny, n ngm a ra cc gi thit no v gi tr.
Quan trng nht trong s ny l ch cn tnh n cc gi tr th
trng - tc l, ch nhng cn nhc c trong u ngi tham
gia th trng khi quyt nh sn lng tr bao nhiu cho ngi
tham gia khc trong trao i t do. Khng nh ny c bin
minh khi mc tiu l xc nh gi th trng, song n b qua
nhiu gi tr c nhn v x hi khng c biu hin trong ng
x th trng. Cc gi tr ny khng nn b b qua trong quyt
nh cc vn khc gi th trng. X hi phi c t chc
ra sao, ngi dn nn sng th no - khng nn gii p cc
vn ny trn c s gi tr th trng.
Th m, chnh xc l ci ang din ra. Phm vi v nh
hng ca l thuyt kinh t m rng ra ngoi nhng gii
GEORGE SOROS
___________________________________________________

54
hn m cc nh ca mt h thng tin nn p t.
Nhng ngi theo thuyt th trng chnh thng bin i
mt l thuyt mang tnh tin v trung lp v gi tr thnh
mt h t tng c nh hng ln ng x chnh tr v kinh
doanh mt cch mnh m v nguy him. l mt trong
nhng vn then cht m ti mun cp trong cun sch
ny: Cc gi tr th trng thm nhp th no vo cc lnh vc
ca x hi m chng chng n nhp g.
Cc gi tr c l thuyt kinh t coi l cho trc lun ko
theo mt s la chn gia cc la chn kh d: bao nhiu ca
mt th c th ngang bng vi by nhiu ca th khc.
tng rng c cc gi tr no khng th mc c c khng
c tha nhn, hoc, chnh xc hn, nhng gi tr nh th
khng c xem xt. Ni chung, ch cc s thch c nhn
c nghin cu; cc nhu cu tp th b b qua. iu ny c
ngha l ton b lnh vc x hi v chnh tr khng c tnh
n. Nu gi nh l l ca nhng ngi theo thuyt th trng
chnh thng - rng li ch chung c phng s tt nht bng
cch theo ui t li mt cch khng hn ch - l ng, th
chng c tai hi ln no; nhng s thc rng kt lun c rt
ra bng cch b qua cc nhu cu tp th tht l vn i.
Nhng nghin cu thc nghim v ra quyt nh chng
t rng, ngay c trong cc vn s thch c nhn, hnh vi
ca con ngi khng ph hp vi nhng i hi ca l thuyt
kinh t. Bng chng ch ra rng thay cho l nht qun v
khng i, s thch ca con ngi thay i tu thuc vo h
hnh dung cc vn quyt nh ca mnh ra sao. Th d, l
thuyt kinh t tng gi thit t Daniel Bernoulli (khong
1738) rng cc tc nhn kinh t nh gi kt qu la chn ca
h bng trng thi ca ci cui cng. Thc ra, cc tc nhn
nhn chung nh khung kt qu nh li v l tng i so vi
im tham chiu no . Hn na, nhng thay i ny trong
nh khung c th c nh hng su sc n quyt nh: Cc
Ph phn Kinh t hc
__________________________________________________



55

tc nhn nh khung kt qu ca h bng ca ci c xu hng
t khng a ri ro hn cc tc nhn ngh v mt tn tht.
12

Ti i xa hn cc nh kinh t hnh vi. Ti cho rng ngi
dn ng x khc nhau ph thuc vo khung dn chiu m h
s dng. Trong khi c s nht qun no trong la chn
khung, cn lu mi c th tin c, v thng c s gin
on ng ch gia cc khung khc nhau. Ti c th ni v
kinh nghim c nhn. Ti thng cm thy c nh mnh c
nhiu nhn cch: mt cho kinh doanh, mt cho trch nhim x
hi, v mt (hay nhiu) cho i t. Cc vai tr hay b nhm
ln, gy cho ti rt nhiu bi ri. Ti c n lc ch tch
hp cc kha cnh khc nhau ca s tn ti ca mnh, v ti
vui sng thng bo rng ti thnh cng. Ti thc mun
ni l: Tch hp cc mt khc nhau ca nhn cch ca ti
l mt thnh tu ch yu v mt ngun tho mn ln lao.
Ti phi th nhn, tuy vy, rng ti khng th t c
iu ny nu gi nh ti vn l mt ngi tham gia tch cc
trong cc th trng ti chnh. Qun l tin i hi mt s hin
thn duy nht cho mc ch kim tin; tt c cc quan tm
khc phi t di n. Ngc vi cc dng vic lm khc,
qun l mt qu t bo him nht thit to ra tn tht cng nh
li nhun, v bn khng bao gi ri mt c. ng ch l
cc gi tr hng dn ti trong cc hot ng kim tin
ging nh cc gi tr i hi bi l thuyt kinh t: Chng ko
theo s cn nhc thn trng gia cc la chn kh d, chng
mang tnh cn bn (cardinal) hn l th t (ordinal),
13
chng
l lin tc v t t, v chng c hng chuyn tm n ti
u ho t l gia ri ro v phn thng bao gm c chp
nhn ri ro cao ti cc thi im khi t l thun li.
Ti sn sng khi qut ho t kinh nghim c nhn ca
mnh v tha nhn rng ng x kim li nhun c l thuyt

12
Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky, Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision Under
Risk, Econometrica 47 (1979): 263-91
13
y l mt im quan trng. Ngc vi hu ht cc nh qun l qu, nhng ngi quan tm
n thnh tch tng i, ti c hng dn v c thng theo thnh tch tuyt i. Theo
ui thnh tch tng i l mt ngun bt n nh trong cc th trng ti chnh l ci c th
khng c nhn bit rng ri. Ti s tr li im ny Chng 7.
GEORGE SOROS
___________________________________________________

56
kinh t coi l nh thc ra l thch hp vi cc hot ng
kinh t ni chung v vi cc th trng ti chnh ni ring.
Khi qut ho c bin minh bi v nhng ngi tham gia
th trng khng t li nhun ln trn hu nh tt c cc cn
nhc khc chc b loi b hoc gim tm quan trng bi p
lc cnh tranh. Nhng c cc kha cnh khc ca tn ti cn
c xem xt.
Ti nh sng ng mt dp khi ti lao t ngn hng ny
sang ngn hng khc thnh ph London, dn xp mt hn
mc tn dng m thiu n th qu t bo him ca ti c th
b xo sch. p lc ln n mc, i dc ph Leadenhall,
ti ngh sp b mt cn au tim. Ti bng tnh rng nu ti
cht, ti s kt thc nh ngi thua trong vn bi m ti
chi vi s hot bt n vy.
ng x kinh t ch l mt loi ng x, v cc gi tr m l
thuyt kinh t coi l cho trc khng phi l loi gi tr duy
nht quan trng i vi loi ngi. Phin l cc gi tr kinh t
c bit l gi tr ti chnh ch ng cuc sng chng ta.
Nhng ngi bun bn tin t ngi bn ca mnh mua v
bn s lng ln cc ng tin ca cc nc Th gii Th ba.
nh hng ca bin ng tin t ln ngi dn sng cc
nc l vn h chng tm. H cng khng c
tm; v h c mt vic lm. Th nhng nu chng ta ngng
li suy ngh, chng ta phi hi chnh mnh c phi nhng
ngi bun bn tin t (khng dng t kch ng hn, nhng
k u c) iu tit cuc sng ca hng triu ngi hay
khng.
Cc gi tr kinh t lin h n cc loi gi tr khc th no?
khng phi l cu hi c th c tr li theo cch ng
mun tha, ph qut, tr ni rng cc gi tr kinh t, t
chng, khng th l duy tr c nhn hay x hi. Cc gi
tr kinh t ch by t ci m mt ngi tham gia th trng sn
lng tr cho ngi khc trong trao i t do v mt ci g .
Cc gi tr ny gi nh trc rng mi ngi tham gia l mt
trung tm li nhun v c xu hng ti a ho li nhun loi
tr mi cn nhc khc. Mc d s m t c th thch hp cho
Ph phn Kinh t hc
__________________________________________________



57
ng x th trng, phi c cc gi tr khc no hot ng
duy tr x hi - qu thc, duy tr cuc sng con ngi.
Tht kh thy cc gi tr thuc v cc lnh vc khc ny c th
tun theo php tnh vi phn c gi nh chng l cc ng
bng quan.
Nhng gi tr khc ny l g, v lm sao chng c th dung
ho c vi cc gi tr th trng? Cu hi m nh ti, v
n lm ri tm tr ti. Hc kinh t khng phi l mt s chun
b tt gii quyt n - chng ta phi vt ra khi l thuyt
kinh t. Thay cho coi cc gi tr l cho trc, chng ta phi
coi chng l phn thn. iu c ngha l cc gi tr khc
nhau thnh hnh trong cc iu kin khc nhau, v c mt c
ch phn hi hai chiu kt ni chng vi cc iu kin thc t,
v th to ra mt qu o lch s duy nht. Chng ta cng phi
coi cc gi tr nh l c th sai. iu c ngha rng cc gi
tr thnh hnh bt c thi im no trong lch s chc t ra
khng tho ng v khng thch hp thi im khc no .
Ti dm chc rng ti thi im hin nay cc gi tr th trng
nhn mt tm quan trng vt qu xa ci l thch hp v c
th duy tr c.
Ti phi ch ra rng nu chng ta mun p dng khi nim
phn thn cho cc gi tr cng nh cho k vng, chng ta phi
s dng khi nim mt cht khc i so vi c m t
Chng 1. Trong trng hp k vng, kt qu c dng nh
mt s kim tra thc t; trong trng hp gi tr, khng phi
vy. Nhng ngi thin cha t v o khng t b lng
trung thnh ca h ngay c khi b nm cho s t. iu ny
lm cho tho lun v gi tr kh hn nhiu tho lun v k
vng. Trong trng hp k vng, chng ta c th ni v s
khc bit gia kt qu v k vng; trong trng hp gi tr,
kh trnh by s khc bit.
Ti quay li tnh th lng nan ny Chng 4.
CHNG 3

Phn thn trong cc Th trng Ti chnh











i a ra li xc nhn rt to bo rng l thuyt kinh
t trnh by sai cn bn v cc th trng hot ng
th no. Ging nh mi lm lc mu m, lun im ny
l cng iu. C nhiu trng hp ni gi thit rng cc iu
kin cung v cu c cho trc mt cch c lp khng gy
ra bt k vi phm no vi thc t; trong cc trng hp ny l
thuyt kinh t c in cho nhng thu hiu c gi tr. Nhng
c t nht mt lnh vc quan trng ni phn tch kinh t to
ra nhng kt qu sai lc cn bn. Ti ngh n cc th trng
ti chnh y.
T
Cc th trng ti chnh khc cc th trng khc ch
nhng ngi tham gia th trng khng bun bn cc i
lng c bit; h c gng chit khu mt tng lai b l
thuc vo vic th trng hin ti chit khu n ra sao. iu
ny lm cho cc iu kin cung v cu khng ch khng c
bit m l khng th bit c. Thiu tri thc, nhng ngi
tham gia buc phi da vo mt yu t phn on hoc thin
kin i n quyt nh, iu n lt n a mt yu t
bt nh vo i tng m quyt nh ca h lin quan n.
y l mt lnh vc khng th c hiu ng n m khng
tnh n tnh phn thn; th m cc nh kinh t hc ht sc

Phn thn trong cc Th trng Ti chnh
__________________________________________________



59
c gng trnh lm vy. L thuyt cho php h thc hin
chin cng anh hng ny l l thuyt v cc k vng duy l.


Nhng K vng Duy l

Ti thy mnh v th yu ph phn l thuyt k vng duy
l, bi v ti cha bao gi nghin cu n k lng. Nh ti
hiu, gi ca cc cng c ti chnh c gi thit l phn nh
nhng ci cn bn- fundamentals: mt dng thu nhp tng
lai v c tc v trin vng ca cc giao dch vn tng lai
trong trng hp c phiu, mt dng chi tr li tng lai trong
trng hp tri phiu, v (ti suy ra) tnh sn c trong tng
lai ca cung kt hp vi cu d kin trong trng hp hng
ho. Ti khng bit r cc k vng no c gi thit lin
quan n trong trng hp tin t. im chnh l mt th
trng hiu qu phn nh tt c mi thng tin v nhng ci
cn bn c bit n hin thi, v hp l i vi nhng
ngi tham gia nhn ra s thc ny. V vy, khi thiu
thng tin ni b th l phi l i vi cc nh u t i cho rng
mnh c th lm tt hn th trng. Th trng cn bng mi
mi v bt k s sai lch tm thi no u mang bn cht ca
bc ngu nhin.
Ti khng chc mnh m t chnh xc l thuyt bi v,
nh ti ni trn, ti cha bao gi nghin cu n. Ti gt
b n ngay lp tc v n hin nhin mu thun vi khi nim
phn thn. N coi cc th trng nh s phn nh th ng
ca nhng ci cn bn, v n coi cc quyt nh c nh chng
c th da trn thng tin.
Ti dm chc rng nhng ngi tham gia trong cc th
trng ti chnh, thay cho t c s cc quyt nh ca mnh
trn k vng duy l, khng th trnh khi a thin kin vo
vic ra quyt nh ca h. Ti dng t thin kin m t mt
yu t phn xt khng th trnh khi, yu t s nh hng n
kt qu. Mi ngi tham gia th trng i mt vi nhim v
t mt gi tr hin ti ln din tin tng lai ca cc s kin,
GEORGE SOROS
___________________________________________________

60
nhng din tin tu thuc vo nh gi thnh hnh cc th
trng ti chnh. l l do v sao nhng ngi tham gia th
trng buc phi s dng mt yu t phn on. Nt quan
trng ca cc phn xt thin lch l chng khng thun tu
th ng: Chng nh hng n din tin ca cc s kin m
chng c gi nh phi phn nh. Chng l phn thn.
S thc rng vi t cch mt ngi tham gia th trng, ti
c th i qua m khng ch n l thuyt k vng duy l
bn thn n l mt li buc ti hng hn, nhng n cn xa
mi l mt s bc b c l l. Thay cho m chm vo mt l
thuyt m ti coi l ti hn v dng, ti s a ra mt din
gii hon ton khc. Sau c gi c th t quyt nh.


Mt Quan nim Kh d khc

Ti hnh dung mt mi lin h hai chiu gia t duy v thc
ti. Nhng ci c bn nh hng n cc gi tr m nhng
ngi tham gia gn cho cc cng c ti chnh, v s nh gi
cng c th nh hng n nhng ci cn bn. Tng tc hai
chiu gy ra mt qu trnh khng bao gi kt thc, khng nht
thit dn ti cn bng. Bin ng gi dn ti mt cn bng l
thuyt mt thi gian v ri khi n vo lc khc, nhng cn
bng thc s vn khng xc nh v bn thn n t nht mt
phn b nh hng bi bin ng gi.
Mi quan h gia nhng ci cn bn v nh gi l kh
hiu. Ngoi im m ti nhc n, c th l nhng ci cn
bn c th b tc ng bi gi c thnh hnh trn cc th
trng ti chnh, c s rc ri khc: Khi mua v bn cc cng
c ti chnh, nhng ngi tham gia th trng khng c gng
chit khu nhng ci cn bn; h tm cch d tnh gi tng
lai ca chnh cc cng c ti chnh y. Mi lin h gia nhng
ci cn bn vi gi th trng l hi ht hn l phi thng
thng c th gi , v vai tr ca thin kin ca ngi tham
gia l ln hn. S ca ti tp trung vo thin kin ca
ngi tham gia hn vo nhng ci cn bn. Tuy vy, cn nhn

Phn thn trong cc Th trng Ti chnh
__________________________________________________



61
mnh rng c th l sai lm i b qua nhng ci cn bn ht
nh b qua thin kin ca ngi tham gia. Ci lm cho thin
kin quan trng l n c th nh hng n nhng ci cn
bn. Khi n khng nh hng, c th an ton b qua n m
khng gy ra bt k vi phm ln no vi thc ti. l ci l
thuyt k vng tm cch lm.


Thin kin ca Ngi tham gia

Thin kin l mt khi nim hc ba. N khng th o c
mt cch thch hp, v chng ta khng th bit th gii khng
c thin kin c din mo ra sao. Nhng ngi khc nhau c
cc thin kin khc nhau, v khng th hot ng m khng
c thin kin no . iu ny ng ngay c trong trng hp
gii hn khi mt ngi tham gia d kin chnh xc tng lai.
May thay, c mt tiu chun th gii bn ngoi, theo
thin kin ca ngi tham gia c th c phn xt: c th l,
din tin tht ca cc s kin. Nhng tiu chun ch cho
mt ch bo ch khng phi mt php o thin kin. l v
khng c thc ti c lp vi t duy ca ngi tham gia, ch
c mt thc ti ph thuc vo n. Ni cch khc, c mt
chui cc s kin thc s xy ra, v chui bao hm tc
ng ca thin kin ca ngi tham gia.
Cc th trng thng dng nh d kin tng lai mt
cch ng n. iu ny, tuy vy, khng phi v cc s kin
tun theo k vng, m bi v k vng c th nh hng n
nhng ci gi l cn bn m chng c gi thit i chit
khu. L thuyt k vng duy l cho rng, theo nh ngha, cc
th trng lun lun ng. Ti dm chc rng cc th trng
ti chnh hu nh lun lun sai, nhng chng c nng lc hp
l ho mnh - n mt im no . L thuyt k vng duy l
kt lun rng v di hn khng th vt trung bnh th trng
v rng bt k s lch no v thnh tch c nhn u mang
tnh ngu nhin. Kt lun ny l sai rnh rnh, v ti vui
sng chng minh n trong thc tin.
GEORGE SOROS
___________________________________________________

62
Phn ln thi gian, din tin tht ca cc s kin chc khc
vi k vng ca ngi tham gia. iu ny ng ngay c cc
trng hp khi thin kin ca ngi tham gia ban u t-hp
l ho. S khc bit gia kt qu v k vng c th c coi
nh mt ch bo ca thin kin hot ng. ng tic, n ch
c th coi l mt du hiu - ch khng phi s o y ca
thin kin - v din tin tht ca cc s kin hm cha nh
hng ca thin kin ca ngi tham gia ri. Tuy nhin, ch t
chng ta c th phn bit gia thin kin gi ln v gi xung.
Thin kin ca ngi tham gia l mt hin tng c th
quan st c mt phn v mt phn chm trong din tin ca
cc s kin, v nh th n c gi tr hn ch vi t cch l
mt i tng cho nghin cu khoa hc. iu ny c th gii
thch v sao cc nh kinh t hc lo lng n vy loi n
khi v tr ca h. Tuy nhin, ti coi n l mu cht cho hiu
cc th trng ti chnh, cho d n khng thch hp hnh
thnh cc l thuyt khoa hc. Khng phi mi hin tng u
c th c gii thch v tin on bi nhng khi qut ho c
hiu lc ph qut - nu khng th chng ta chng cn da vo
linh cm ra cc quyt nh.
n gin, hy tp trung vo th trng c phiu. Theo
din gii li thi, gi c phiu c cho l phn nh nhng ci
cn bn ca cc cng ti trong c phiu i din mt s
tham gia s hu. Nh ti ni trc y, quan nim ny l
sai. Gi th trng khng chit khu mt dng thu nhp v c
tc tng lai, n c d kin gi c phiu trong tng lai. Tuy
nhin, nhng ci cn bn ng mt vai tr quan trng. Gi c
th trng c th quan st c d dng, nhng bn thn
chng khng tit l bt k th g v cc thin kin ca nhng
ngi tham gia. nhn din thin kin, chng ta cn mt
bin s khc no khc vi thin kin. Nhng ci cn bn
cho mt bin s nh vy, cho d chng b nhim thin kin.
Cho mc ch ca tho lun ny, ti s nh ngha cn
bng nh mt s tng ng gia quan im ca ngi tham
gia v nhng ci cn bn. iu ny khc cch dng t trong
kinh t hc, nhng ti tin n hp vi khi nim cn bng di

Phn thn trong cc Th trng Ti chnh
__________________________________________________



63
hn. Cc nh kinh t hc phn bit gia cn bng ngn hn,
t c trc khi c bt k ti phn b ngun lc sn xut
no, v cn bng di hn, phn nh nhng phn b li nh
vy. Vi cn bng ngn hn, l rng gi thnh hnh phi
lm cn bng (clear) th trng; tc l, khng cn ngi mua
hay ngi bn no khng c tho mn. Dng nh ngha ti
thiu ny v cn bng, c th l l rng cc th trng ti chnh
nm trong cn bng lin min - mc d ti nghi im ny, m
ti s nu ra mun hn trong chng ny. Nhng iu
chng ni my v vai tr phn b ngun lc ca cc th
trng ti chnh. Vn l th tht s l liu c ci gi l cn
bng di hn hay khng, v l vn m ti cp y.
Nhng ci cn bn l ci quan trng, th li trong tng
lai. Gi c phiu khng c gi thit l phn nh thu nhp,
bng cn i, v c tc nm ngoi, m phn nh dng tng
lai ca thu nhp, c tc v gi tr ti sn. Dng khng c
cho trc; v th n khng l i tng ca tri thc m ca
phng on. Phng on da vo s kt hp thng tin v
thin kin. V th thin kin c din t trong gi c phiu,
v gi c phiu c cch tc ng n nhng ci cn bn. Th
d, mt cng ti c th huy ng vn bng bn c phiu, v gi
n bn c phiu s nh hng n thu nhp trn c phn. Gi
c phiu cng tc ng n iu kin m cng ti c th vay.
Cng ti cng c th ng vin ban qun l bng pht hnh
quyn chn (option). C nhng cch khc m hnh nh cng ti
c i din bi gi c phiu ca n c th nh hng n
nhng ci cn bn. Th d, n c th thu ht khch hng.
Khi iu xy ra, kh nng ca tng tc hai chiu, phn
thn xut hin, v cn bng tr thnh mt khi nim lm ln
v nhng ci cn bn ngng cung cp mt bin s c lp theo
gi c phiu c th tng ng. Cn bng tr thnh mt
mc tiu di ng, v tng tc phn thn c th lm cho n
hon ton bin i v bin ng gi c phiu c th y nhng
ci cn bn theo cng chiu vi bin ng c phiu. S in
lon gn y v c phiu Internet l mt trng hp nh vy.
GEORGE SOROS
___________________________________________________

64


Chui Boom-Bust

Lin h hai chiu gia gi c phiu v nhng ci cn bn c
th khi ng mt qu trnh t-tng cng c th a c
nhng ci cn bn ln gi c phiu ra kh xa ni chng c th
l di mt cn bng qui c. iu ny c th bin minh ng
x theo xu hng, c th a cc th trng ti chnh n ci
ti gi l lnh a xa cn bng. Cui cng s khc bit gia
hnh nh v thc t, gia k vng v kt qu, nht thit tr nn
khng th duy tr c, v qu trnh nht thit o ngc.
im quan trng l ng x theo xu hng khng nht thit l
phi l. Ht nh cc ng vt no c l do chnh ng di
chuyn theo by, cc nh u t cng vy. Ch ti cc im r
ni xu hng thnh hnh i chiu th ngi theo xu hng
khng cn ng no s b tn thng. Theo cng cch, cc
nh u t c c n may nh nhng ci cn bn chc s b
by n gim nt. Ti lun lun n cc im r.
Ch i khi gi c phiu ca mt cng ti c th nh hng
n nhng ci cn bn ca cng ti theo cch t tng cng,
ging con ch ui theo ci ui ca mnh. Song khi xt bc
tranh v m, ln hn, chng ta thy cc tng tc phn thn l
l thng, ch khng phi ngoi l. Th d, bin ng tin t
c xu hng t-hp l ho; m rng v thu hp tn dng
thng c xu hng theo mt chui boom-bust (hng thnh
bt pht-suy sp). Cc qu trnh t tng cng nhng cui
cng t th tiu l c trng trong cc th trng ti chnh.
Trong Gi Kim thut Ti chnh, ti nhn din v phn
tch vi trng hp phn thn khng th gii thch c bng
l thuyt cn bng. Trong trng hp th trng c phiu, ti
tp trung vo hin tng n by vn c phn. Khi mt cng
ti hay ngnh c nh gi cao, n c th pht hnh c phiu
v s dng tin thu c bin minh cho k vng c thi
phng - n mt im. Ngc li, khi mt cng ti pht trin
nhanh c nh gi thp c th khng c kh nng tn dng

Phn thn trong cc Th trng Ti chnh
__________________________________________________



65

cc c hi n bt gp, do bin minh cho s nh gi thp,
li ln na, ch n mt im.
Xt th trng tin t, ti phn bit s ph bin ca cc
vng c (vicious) v thin (virtuous) t gi hi oi v ci
gi l cn bn m chng c gi thit phn nh lin kt vi
nhau mt cch t tng cng, to ra cc xu hng t duy tr
mt thi gian di cho n cui cng chng o ngc. Ti
nhn din mt vng c i vi ng la ln cc im nm
1980, v phn tch mt vng thin din ra trong giai on
1980-1985. Ti gi n l vng quc Reagan. Gi nh ti
vit cun sch y mun hn, ti c th phn tch mt vng
quc tng t c, n ra do s thng nht nc c
nm 1990. N din ra khc i bi nh hng ca n ln c
ch t gi hi oi Chu u: N dn n ph gi ng bng
Anh nm 1992. Khng hong 1997-1999 gy ra mt vng c
tng t cho cc nc ngoi vi v mt vng thin cho Hoa
K. S hin din ca cc xu hng ko di v c th nhn din
r nh vy khuyn khch u c theo xu hng, v tnh bt n
nh c xu hng tch lu. iu ny, mt ln na, c chng
t bi s st gi t-tng cng ca ng euro t khi a n
vo.
*
Cc nh chc trch khng sn lng can thip; ti tin l
cc th trng cui cng s buc h phi lm vy tr khi nn
kinh t M c du hiu gim bt. Cc nh chc trch c th
bt nhiu au bun gi nh h c hiu bit tt hn v cc th
trng ti chnh. Cn xa mi phn nh nhng ci cn bn, cc
th trng to ra thc ti ring ca chng, v cc nh chc
trch c th ngn thi qu i qu xa bng cch can thip kp
thi. iu ny i ngc li thuyt chnh thng thnh hnh.
Nghin cu h thng ngn hng v cc th trng tn dng
ni chung, ti quan st thy quan h phn thn gia vic
cho vay v gi tr ti sn th chp. Gi tr ca ti sn th chp
ph thuc vo cc ngn hng sn lng cho vay bao nhiu.
iu ny gy ra mt chui boom-bust bt i xng trong

*
V ta chng kin s o ngc ca ng euro va qua.
GEORGE SOROS
___________________________________________________

66

m rng tn dng v hot ng kinh t ly tc dn dn v
cui cng n mt kt thc t ngt. Quan h phn thn v
hnh mu bt i xng c th thy r trong boom cho vay
quc t ln ca cc nm 1970 ln n cc im trong khng
hong Mexico 1982. Mt qu trnh tng t xy ra nm 1998
khi ti vit cun The Crisis of Global Capitalism.
Ti mun dng mt trng hp c bit t Gi Kim thut
Ti chnh minh ho: ci gi l conglomerate boom, t cc
im vo cui cc nm 1960. Khi cc nh u t sn lng
tr mt h s nhn
*
thu nhp cao cho cc cng ti c kh nng
to ra tng trng nhanh v thu nhp trn c phn. S quan
tm ny - tng trng thu nhp - hin ra to ln trong u cc
nh u t hn nhng ci cn bn khc, nh c tc v bng
cn i ti sn, v cc nh u t khng tht s phn bit
cch tng trng thu nhp trn c phn t c ra sao. Mt
s cng ti li dng thin kin ny bng cch dng c phiu
ca mnh thn tnh. in hnh cc conglomerate (tp on,
t hp c quyn kinh t) l cc cng ti cng ngh cao
qun s c tng trng cao trong qu kh va qua v do c
h s nhn thu nhp cao. Chng c th dng c phiu c gi
cao ca mnh thn tnh cc cng ti khc m gi c phiu
c bn vi h s nhn thp, to ra kt qu thu nhp trn c
phiu cao hn. Cc nh u t nh gi cao tng trng thu
nhp v chp nhn cc h s nhn cao hn i vi c phn,
iu lm cho cc cng ti tip tc qu trnh. Nhanh chng
c nhiu ngi bt chc. Ngay c cc cng ti khi u
vi c phiu c h s nhn thu nhp thp c th t mt h
s nhn cao n gin bng cng b nh ca chng tr
thnh cc tp on [conglomerate]. Boom c khi ng.
u tin, thnh tch ca mi conglomerate c nh gi
theo cng trng ring, nhng dn dn cc conglomerate c
nhn ra nh mt tp on. Mt loi mi ca cc nh u t
xut hin, c gi l cc nh qun l qu u c (go-go fund),
hoc nhng k cp c sng, h pht trin mt mi quan

*
multiple: h s nhn (gi c phiu = h s nhn x thu nhp trn c phn).

Phn thn trong cc Th trng Ti chnh
__________________________________________________



67

h c bit vi ban qun l ca cc conglomerate. Cc ng
thng tin trc tip c m gia h vi nhau, v cc
conglomerate hc c cch iu khin cc nh u t cng
nh thu nhp ca mnh. C phiu leo ln cao, nhng cui
cng thc t khng th duy tr c k vng. Cc cuc thn
tnh phi tr nn ln hn v ln hn na duy tr , v cui
cng chng vp phi gii hn v qui m. im ngot n khi
Saul Steinberg c th thn tnh Chemical Bank: y l
iu qu ng vi chnh quyn, v c gng b tht bi. Thay
cho d kin mt im ngot, nh c th mong i t k vng
duy l, cc nh u t b xu hng cun theo. V th khi n
cc im, th trng b vng m khng c chun b.
S suy sp t-tng cng. Nhng vn ni b ca cc
conglomerate, c giu di thm trong thi k tng trng
nhanh t bn ngoi, bt u l ra. Bo co thu nhp tit l cc
iu ngc nhin kh chu. Cc nh u t v mng, v sau
nhng ngy bc ng v thnh cng da vo thn tnh, t nh
qun l mun bt tay gnh vc vic gay go iu hnh cc cng
ti ca h. Nhng ngi lm buc phi dn sch, c ngha
l bo co cc khon thu nhp gy sc cho cc nh u t.
Nh mt trong cc nh qun l ny ni vi ti, ti chng
c khn gi no biu din. Tnh hnh cn b suy thoi lm
nghim trng. n lc , cc nh u t sn sng tin vo
iu xu nht, v trong mt s trng hp iu xu nht tht
s xy ra: Vi conglomerate ng l tan r. Trong mt
vi trng hp, thc t ho ra l tt hn k vng, v cui cng
tnh hnh n nh li, vi cc cng ti cn sng st, thng vi
ban qun l mi, t vn ng dn dn khi ng nt.
14

Dng conglomerate boom nh h thuyt, ti ngh ra mt
nguyn mu v chui boom-bust. N khi u vi mt thin
kin thnh hnh v mt xu hng thnh hnh. Trong trng
hp conglomerate boom, thin kin thnh hnh l s a
thch tng trng nhanh thu nhp trn c phn m khng ch

14
George Soros, The Alchemy of Finance: Reading the Mind of the Market (New York: John
Wiley and Sons, 1987), p.57. Bn ting Vit Gi kim thut Ti chnh (2002) tr. 57.
GEORGE SOROS
___________________________________________________

68
nhiu n xy ra th no; xu th thnh hnh l kh nng
ca cc cng ti to ra tng trng cao thu nhp trn c phn
bng dng c phiu ca mnh i thn tnh cc cng ti khc
c bn vi h s nhn thp hn. iu ny c minh ho
Hnh 3.1: giai on u (1), xu th cn cha c nhn ra.
Ri n giai on tng tc (2), khi xu th c nhn ra v t
tng cng bi thin kin thnh hnh. Mt giai on kim tra
(3) c th xen vo khi gi st. Nu thin kin v xu th duy
tr, c hai hin ra mnh hn bao gi ht (4). Ri n gi pht
th thch (5) khi thc t khng cn duy tr c k vng b
phng i, tip theo mt giai on chng vng (6) khi ngi ta
tip tc cuc chi, mc d h khng cn tin vo n, vi hi
vng h s c cu gip bi nhng k kh di hn. Cui
cng n mt im giao (7) khi xu th st gim v ngay c
nhng k kh di nht t b hi vng. iu ny dn n mt
s gia tc thm khc theo chiu ngc li (8), thng c
bit n nh mt s sp .

Hnh 3.1



Phn thn trong cc Th trng Ti chnh
__________________________________________________



69
Nh minh ho trn Hnh 3.1, chui boom-bust c dng bt
i xng, vi boom ko di hn v bust c c hn. Hnh ny
gii thiu trng hp nguyn mu, nhng cc th ca cc
conglomerate thc t khc nhau tun theo kh st n. Khng
phi mi qu trnh boom-bust theo cng hnh mu. Trong Gi
kim thut Ti chnh, ti m t trng hp nguyn mu
khc trong bn ln v bn xung i xng hn. in hnh
ca cc th trng tin t l nh th, ni bn ln v bn xung
t nhiu thun nghch. Trong thc t, cc qu trnh phn thn
tng tc, to ra cc hnh mu k l v n nht. Mi trng
hp l khc nhau, v cc th c s dng khc nhau nh s
cc trng hp. S sp lng tin t ngt vo cc th trng
ti chnh Vin ng nm 1997 lm bin i nhng ci cn
bn khp Chu v phn ln th gii l mt trng hp
hin nhin nh vy (s c phn tch Chng 7).
Chng c g nh r v trng hp nguyn mu m ti m
t trn. Cc giai on khc nhau c th c bin v trng
khc nhau. Tuy vy, chui cc giai on dng nh c
logic c s no . S l l khi gp giai on tng tc sau gi
pht th thch hoc im giao trc gi pht th thch. Song
khng th ni chng ta u tr khi nhn li; th d, giai on
chng vng (6) chuyn thnh mt giai on kim tra (3) tr
khi tip theo mt im giao (7). Thc vy, qu trnh c th
chng bao gi c khi ng. Trong nhiu trng hp, c
ch phn hi phn thn l t-hiu chnh hn l t-tng cng
khi ng. Mt chui boom-bust y l mt ngoi l
hn l thng l, nhng tnh phn thn - bt k t-hiu chnh
hay t-tng cng - l thng l trong cc th trng ti
chnh.


Boom Internet

Chng ta mi y tri qua mt chui boom-bust y v
c phiu Internet. N bt u hu nh khng cm nhn c
khi vi cng ti tin hnh thng mi Internet nim yt bn c
GEORGE SOROS
___________________________________________________

70

phiu cho cng chng. Cc cng ti ny cung cp cc dch
v c cng chng nh gi rt cao. Cc c phiu cng
c cng chng nh gi cao, v s a chung ca i
chng vi c phiu gip thc y tnh i chng ca cc
dch v c cung cp. Xu th thnh hnh v thin kin thnh
hnh tr nn tng cng ln nhau, v boom tng tc. Do
Internet m rng, s cc nh u t tim nng tng theo hm
s m, v cung c phiu khng th theo kp nhp . Cu v
c phiu lm tng gi bi cc nh mi gii cho thng
mi trc tuyn, trong khi cung c gii hn v nhng hn ch
php l khc nhau v bn c phiu bi nhng ngi ni b
nhng ngi mua trc khi ra cng chng. S nh gi t
mc l lng. t trong s cc cng ti ny c li, nhng cc nh
u t chng bn tm. H nhn vo s khch hng hay
s thu bao nh c s nh gi c phiu. Cc cng ti bt
u cho khng dch v, nhn ra rng nu h tng s khch
hng h c th huy ng vn vi cc iu kin thun li hn.
Tn ca cuc chi tr thnh huy ng vn, ch khng phi
lm ra li nhun. l mt m hnh kinh doanh khng th
duy tr c, v chng cn l thin ti ti chnh nhn ra
rng hng thnh (boom) nht thit phi dn ti suy sp (bust),
nhng kh hn nhiu phng on khi no n xy ra.
Boom Internet khng theo hnh mu conglomerate boom
minh ho Hnh 3.1. Gi pht th thch l ra phi n vo
ngy 28-7-1999, khi t Wall Street Journal ng mt bi bo
trn trang nht
15
gii thch sai st trong m hnh kinh doanh.
iu ny ngu nhin trng vi mt t l pht hnh mi v
o hn ca giai on nm gi i vi cc nh u t ban u
mt s cng ti dn u nh America Online. Nhng ngi
ni b hu nh khng th i trt c phiu h ang nm
gi. Gi c phiu Internet rt hn 50 phn trm. Ti tin rng
t im giao v rng s sp sp xy ra. Th m c
phiu Internet phc hi, v mt s t nh cao mi. Cc
nh ch sng v cht bi thnh tch tng i buc phi

15
George Anders, Internet Firms Offer Goods in a Bid to Increase Traffic, Wall Street
Journal, July 28, 1999.

Phn thn trong cc Th trng Ti chnh
__________________________________________________



71
tng s c phiu h nm gi v cui nm n gn. Khi
Yahoo! c tnh n trong ch s Standard and Poor (S&P),
n tng 30 phn trm trong ch mt ngy. N en ang n, v
cc cng ti Internet dc ht sc tng lng bn. Hiu ng
ca ci ca bong bng th trng c phiu ging mt ma N
en mnh. Cho khng, qung co, v s no ng do c phiu
Internet gy ra kt hp li m bo rng ci gi l lng bn
thng mi in t vt mi s mong i. Do cc c phiu
Internet c nh gi trn c s tng trng doanh thu, t
hng thnh thm c mt chn na. Ci l ra phi l giai
on chng vng (6) tr thnh mt kim tra thnh cng (3).
Nhng ngi ging nh ti bn non c phiu Internet buc
phi b p chng vi khon tn tht to ln. Ti vn tin chc
rng mt s sp nht thit s n, nhng ti khng th
c sc bnh vc nim tin chc ca mnh. Nh ngn ng
Wall Street ni, ngi b chy sng chin u cho mt
ngy khc. S sp n vo cui qu mt, ng nh ti
d tnh, nhng lc ti khng dm nh cuc v n na.
Bong bng v. Hu ht c phiu Internet bn di gi
cho. Internet cn li, song nhiu cng ti khng cn c th
ti tr tng trng ca mnh bng bn c phiu vi gi khng
ngng tng ln chc s tht bi. Cui cng ch c cc cng ti
c kh nng hot ng c li s sng st (xem Biu 3.1).
Cn phi xem s n v bong bng Internet s nh hng
n phn cn li ca th trng ra sao. Cho n nay n c t
nh hng mt cch khc thng. Ch s Nasdaq chng t
kh nng phc hi ng k, gi li ng x ca c phiu
Internet mt nm trc , v ch s S&P rng hn ln vn
khng xa mc cao mi thi ca n (xem Biu 3.2). Ngi
ta hc c rng c li mua qung trng, v h s
khng t b thi quen cho n khi n thi khng sinh li. Ti
tin l iu sp xy ra v nn kinh t qu nng, v Cc D
tr Lin bang tng li sut hng hi hn cho n nay. Thot
u, cc nh u t c th dch chuyn sang cc cng ti tng
trng cao vi nim tin sai lm rng chng c min dch



















Biu 3.1 Ch s Internet Tng tc (Interactive Internet Index)

Phn thn trong cc Th trng Ti chnh
__________________________________________________




Biu 3.2: Ch s a hp NASDAQ (NASDAQ Composite Index)



i vi li sut tng ln, song cui cng cc c phiu cng
b bt kp mt th trng gi xung. Ht nh boom c tc
ng dng ln nhng ci cn bn, bust s c tc ng m.
Tng gi c phiu kch thch tiu th thng qua ci gi l hiu
ng ca ci (wealth effect), v chng kch thch chi tiu vn
vo cng ngh thm ch hn na. Boom c tc ng tng tc
thi gian. Cc cng ti khng th i cc i mi mi nht
ln tu v s b th trng c phiu trng pht. Th d, John
Kay ch ra trong Financial Times
16
rng Vodafone phi
tr gi rt cao cho c quyn kinh doanh khng dy th h ba
ln nht Anh hp l ho gi c phiu hin ti ca n. S
tng tc lm nghing cn cn cu v cung c li cho cc cng
ti cng ngh, lm tng bin li nhun ca chng; n cng cho
php cc cng ti non nt vi cng ngh mi nht chim th
phn mc khng th hnh dung ni thi k bnh thng.
Tt c iu ny chc hn s o ngc khi th trng ngui i,
nhng phn hi phn thn ny khng th hin gi c phiu
hin thi. Theo ti, nhc tt, song hu ht ngi dn vn
cn ma. Ti th khng. Ti cng b bin Qu Quantum
ca ti thnh mt phng tin bo th hn gi l Qu Tr cp
vn Quantum (Quantum Endowment Fund) t 30-4-2000.
Th d ny ng l bi hc chng t rng l thuyt boom-
bust ca ti cn xa mi rt r rng v tin on din tin cc
s kin. Khng hong 1997-1999, ti s tho lun chi tit hn
Phn II, l mt trng hp na nh vy. Ti mt nhiu
tin trong c hai. Th th mt l thuyt phng c ch g nu n
khng em li cc tin on ng tin cy? Cu tr li l nu
cc th trng l khng th tin on c tht, th tt hn
c mt l thuyt lm cho r im ny; l thuyt cho rng cung
cp mt gii thch khoa hc nht thit l sai. chc chn l
trng hp vi ci gi l gi thuyt bc ngu nhin.
L thuyt ca ti b cc nh kinh t nh Robert Solow
gt b v khng tho mn tiu chun phng php khoa hc.
17

Ti sn sng tha nhn rng l thuyt ca ti khng t cch
khoa hc, song ti c th l l rng khi nim phn thn mang

16
May 1, 2000.
17
Robert Solow, The False Economies of George Soros, New Republic, February 8, 1999.
Phn thn trong cc Th trng Ti chnh
__________________________________________________

75

tnh [hng] dn hn khi nim cn bng hiu cc th
trng ti chnh. Chc chn n to kt qu tt hn qua hng
nm so vi c th k vng t gi thuyt bc ngu nhin.
Quantum Fund em li cho cc c ng ca n thu nhp
hn 30 phn trm mi nm (tr ph qun l) sut hn ba mi
mt nm, ngay c sau gim st 20 phn trm na u 2000;
100.000 $ u t nm 1969 by gi c gi tr 420 triu $.


Tnh Phn thn trong cc Th trng Ti chnh

Khng phi mi din bin ca th trng c phiu u c th
c din gii bng mt qu trnh ban u t-tng cng
nhng cui cng t-th tiu, tuy vy cc th trng ti chnh
khng c hiu ng n m khng tnh n kh nng .
Nh cc th d trc biu l, cc chui boom-bust khng th
c tin on vi bt k chc chn no. Tht vy, s l
khng nht qun ni ti nu gi nh iu l c th, bi v
khm ph ra mt l thuyt tin on ng s lm thay i din
tin ca cc s kin. iu khng c ngha rng nhng
ngi tham gia no khng th phn on tt hn nhng
ngi khc. Cn i li, ti lm kh tt bi v ti sn
sng tha nhn cc sai lm ca mnh. Gi thuyt cng vic
ca ti v tnh c th sai trit c ch cho ti.
Mt l thuyt v phn thn c l khng th cung cp cc
gii thch v tin on tt nh; mt l thuyt v cn bng
c mong i lm vy. Nhng khi xt n bng chng,
chng ta phi kt lun rng ci sau chng my lin quan n
thc t. Tuy vy, khi nim cn bng c tnh hu ch no .
Thc vy, tht kh lm sng t c ch phn hi phn thn m
khng vin dn n khi nim ny. Chng ta s khng th ni
liu mt qu trnh dn ti hay i xa cn bng. Chng ta cng
chng th ni my v thin kin ca ngi tham gia m khng
a ra khi nim v nhng ci cn bn, d ti cho rng ci gi
l cn bn khng xc nh vic nh gi c phiu. Biu v
c phiu conglomerate chng c my ngha m khng c
GEORGE SOROS
___________________________________________________

76
dng biu th thu nhp trn c phn (tc l ci cn bn), cho
d bn thn thu nhp b nh hng mt cch phn thn bi
nh gi th trng.
Th th cn bng l g? Ti nh ngha n nh trng thi
trong c s tng ng gia cc k vng v kt qu. (y
ch l s pht biu li tng qut hn ca nh ngha trc y
ca ti). Loi cn bng ny khng t c cc th trng
ti chnh, nhng phi c th xc lp liu mt xu th thnh
hnh c tin ti n hay ri khi n khng. Bit ngn y c th
l mt bc tin ln trong s hiu bit ca chng ta ri.
Nu chng ta c th nhn ra mt xu th thnh hnh v mt
s khc bit gia thc t v k vng, n cho php lp mt gi
thuyt v din tin tng lai ca cc s kin. iu ny khng
d, v khng th c tin hnh mt cch khoa hc, song n
to mt c s thch hp cho ra quyt nh u t.
Ti sa l thuyt phng php khoa hc ca Popper cho
hp vi mc ch ny. Ti thit lp mt gi thuyt (hay lun
cho gn) nh c s cho cc k vng ca ti, sau ti kim
tra n vi din tin tng lai ca cc s kin. Nu lun sai,
ti bn. Th d, ti mua Cng ti Bo him Bo lnh Th chp
[Mortgage Guarantee Insurance Corporation] (Magic)
thi im khng hong bt ng sn California vi lun l
cng ti s sng st v, sau khi vt qua th thch khc lit, n
s c chp nhn vi nh gi cao hn nhiu. Thnh cng
nh o thut. Trong nhng ngy qun l tin tch cc, ti
thng b kch thch c bit khi ngi thy mi ca mt lun
ban u t-tng cng song cui cng t-th tiu. Ming
ti a nc ming c nh ti l mt trong nhng con ch ca
Pavlov. Thng ti nh hi sai. Ht nh ngi ta bo cc
nh kinh t hc tin on mi trong s ba t suy thoi,
ti cng lm th vi cc chui boom-bust. Ti sai hu
ht thi gian, bi v tuy mi tnh th l phn thn hu ht l
t-hiu chnh hn l t-tng cng. Nhng vi c hi khi ti
ng lm cho n lc ng gi, bi v li nhun tim nng
ln hn nhiu so vi trong tnh th gn cn bng. iu ny
lin quan nhiu n thnh cng ca ti nh mt nh qun l
Phn thn trong cc Th trng Ti chnh
__________________________________________________

77

qu. N i hi c tng tng, trc gic, v mt thi ph
phn nghim khc. ng tic, nhng ngy huy hong qua:
Qu nhiu ngi c sch ca ti, v ti mt li th.
Ti ghi li mt trng hp c bit trong Gi Kim thut
Ti chnh: cc trust u t bt ng sn (REIT) vo u cc
nm 1970. Trng hp ng lu v nhiu mt. Ti cng
b mt bo co mi gii tin on mt qu trnh boom-bust,
v sau kch bn din ra, ging nh mt v kch Hi Lp,
chnh xc nh ti d on. Dng biu khng ging
Hnh 3.1 v bo co mi gii ca ti gy ra mt bong bng
ban u ri b m thng khi n li cun nhiu REIT mi
khai trng. Chui boom-bust tht s khi ng sau . Bn
thn ti l nhn vt chnh, hng li y t kch bn c
bn tng ln bn st. c thuyt phc bi phn tch ring
ca mnh l hu ht REIT s ph sn, ti tip tc bn non
c phiu khi chng st gi, kt thc vi li hn 100 phn trm
v th ngn ca ti - mt k cng dng nh khng th.
Ngay c trong cc dp khi lun ca ti ho ra sai, ti
thng c th rt lui vi mt khon li nhun v thi t
ph bnh gip ti pht hin ra cc sai st trong lun ca
mnh trc khi nhng ngi khc lm vy. Ti theo qui tc
u t trc v iu tra mun hn. Khi mt lun c v
hp l, iu ny thng cho ti c hi lt li vi mt khon li
nhun v vn cn nhng ngi khc sn sng tin vo chuyn
ngay c sau khi ti vt b n. Ngay c trong cc trng
hp m ti sai v ti nhc ti hai trng hp, khng
hong 1997-1999 v boom Internet ti c th hng li
do c lun v n gip ti nhn ra sai lm ca mnh. Tm ra
mt sai st lun an i ti; khng bit yu im tim nng lm
cho ti bc dc, v ti tin chc rng mi lun u sai.
Da vo kinh nghim ring, ti thit lp mt lun kh
l th v th trng c phiu: ti a ra nh l th trng
c phiu ng vai mt s thch nghi ca l thuyt Popper v
phng php khoa hc c bn nh ti lm, vi s khc bit l
n khng bit mnh lm th. Ni cch khc, n chp nhn mt
lun v kim tra n; nu sai - nh thng th - n th mt
GEORGE SOROS
___________________________________________________

78

lun khc. l ci to ra bin ng th trng. N xut
hin cc mc khc nhau, v cc hnh mu c to ra l
qui, rt ging nh cc fractal Mandelbrot (tc l, cc cu trc
qui trong cu hnh khng u c lp li mi cp).
iu ny dn ti n gi thuyt cng tc l cc th trng
trong bt cn bng lin min. Ti khng loi tr cn bng,
song ti coi n l mt trng hp gii hn. Ti thm ch cn
i xa na: Ti tin rng gi khng lm cn bng [clear] th
trng. Lun cn ngi mua v ngi bn khng c tho
mn, hoc v h khng th thc hin ton b n hng phin
bn cui cng hoc v h khng th quyt nh c. C hai
cch, h nht thit b nh hng bi hot ng th trng. L
thuyt kinh t ni rng mt s tng gi c khuynh hng lm
gim cu v tng cung. Khng phi vy trong th trng c
phiu. Mt s tng gi c th lm tng s kht khao ca
nhng ngi mua, v ngc li, gy ra hin tng ng x
theo xu th. iu ny c cc nh kinh doanh chng
khon chuyn nghip khai thc mt cch c h thng th
trng c phiu London c, ni cc nh mi gii buc phi
thng qua cc nh kinh doanh. Khi cc nh kinh doanh mun
bo him v th ngn ca mnh h khng nng gi hi mua;
ngc li th h gim gi ca mnh. H gi n l rung cy.
iu ny c cc h lu l thuyt quan trng, v n bin
minh cho phn tch k thut.
18
Th d, cc du kim ln
[uptick] v kim xung [downtick] tr thnh ci d on quan
trng ca xu th gi. Chng cn ni, quan nim ny mu
thun trc tip vi quan nim thnh hnh, coi th trng cn
bng ngn hn mi mi.
Lun c th trng chp nhn hay l tm thng; n
c th chng hn ni l gi ca cc cng ti, tp on, thm ch
ton th trng no i ln hay i xung. Trong cc trng
hp ny, n khi mt ngi tham gia hnh dung ra v sao th

18
Hai cch tip cn chnh cho phn tch chng khon l cn bn v k thut. Phn tch
cn bn theo qui tc ca l thuyt kinh t v coi gi c phn nh phn nh gi tr cn bn ca
cng ti. Phn tch k thut b qua l thuyt kinh t v nghin cu ng hc ca bin ng gi
v cc hnh mu ca ng x th trng.
Phn thn trong cc Th trng Ti chnh
__________________________________________________

79

trng chp nhn mt lun no c th qu mun -
lun b vt b ri. Tt hn nhiu i d kin bin ng
bng nghin cu cc hnh mu th trng. l ci phn tch
k thut lm. Ti cha bao gi quan tm c bit n phn
tch k thut, song ti tha nhn tnh tho ng ca n. Ti
thch i mt lun khng tm thng - tc l, c tnh lch
s - mt boom-bust. Tt nhin, th trng din n ri trc
khi ti c th nhn ra lun nh vy, song ti vn c th i
trc hu ht cc nh u t khai thc n. Cc lun lch
s, phn thn ch th hin tng cn, v c th c cc giai on
b hoang gia khi c th tt hn cho ti l chng lm g c.
Ti nghi l ti vn c th c mt li th trong nhn ra cc
lun ln, mang tnh lch s, v nhng ngi tham gia th
trng by gi nhn thc c tim nng ca tnh phn
thn. c mt s thay i ng ch , th d, xa ri nhng
ci cn bn v sang bun bn theo nhng cn nhc k thut.
Do lng tin ca ngi tham gia vo nhng ci cn bn gim
i, phn tch k thut tr nn thm ch quan trng hn. iu
ny c mt s lin can n tnh n nh ca cc th trng,
nhng trc khi xem xt chng, ti phi a ra mt s phn
bit ng vai tr then cht trong khung kh quan nim ca ti.


Bt Cn bng ng

Ti mun phn bit cc iu kin gn cn bng v xa cn
bng. Ti vay mn cc thut ng ny t thuyt hn n, m
cch tip cn ca ti c s thn thuc no y. Trong cc iu
kin gn cn bng, th trng hot ng vi lun tm
thng, khng c kh nng nh hng n nhng ci cn bn,
sao cho mt s xa ri cn bng chc gy ra mt bc i li
ko gi tr v v tr m n bt u. Nhng bin ng ny
ging bc ngu nhin hay gn sng trong mt h bi.
Ngc li, nu lun phn thn tm c cch thit lp,
n s khng ch nh hng n gi m n c nhng ci cn
bn, v s o ngc s khng to s tr li vi hin trng.
GEORGE SOROS
___________________________________________________

80
N s ging mt t sng thn hay mt v l tuyt. Cc chui
boom-bust y thm nhp vo lnh a xa cn bng. l
ci lm chng khc bc ngu nhin v cho chng tm quan
trng lch s. Ti thng ni vi mnh rng ti gii nhn ra
cc t sng thn nhng khng chi c vi cc gn sng.
ng ranh gii u? Ngng ca bt cn bng ng b
vt qua khi mt xu th thnh hnh trong th gii thc tr nn
ph thuc vo mt thin kin thnh hnh trong tm tr ngi
tham gia, v ngc li. C xu th v thin kin sau tin
trin hn na so vi c th nu thiu lin h phn thn, phn
hi kp. Th d, trong cc nm 1990 s hng hi ca cc nh
u t v ngn hng quc t vi cc ti sn chu to ra
cc boom ni a c kch thch bi nh gi cao v tn dng
d di. Cc boom ny y nhanh tng trng ca cc nn
kinh t v tng nh gi, iu n lt n li hp l ho v
khuyn khch dng vn chy vo thm na t nc ngoi.
Nhng c con su trong ni canh: Boom khng th tin
trin n nh th m khng c neo la cho php cc nc
ny duy tr mt thm ht thng mi di hn h c th. Khi
neo b v, n gy ra v ng tin, ti sn, v nn kinh t.
Mt thin kin thnh hnh t n khng to bt cn
bng ng; n phi tm c cch hp l ho bng thit lp
hoc tng cng mt xu th trong th gii thc. Ti tha nhn
im ny l tautologic: Khi mt c ch phn hi kp hot
ng, chng ta c th ni v bt cn bng ng. Nhng ng
lm im ny: T duy ca ngi tham gia lun c thin kin,
nhng n khng lun lun bin thnh mt chui boom-bust.
Th d, conglomerate boom c th on trc nu cc nh
u t bit trc rng khi nim tng trng thu nhp trn
c phn ca h l sai ngay khi cc conglomerate bt u li
dng n. Boom chu c th c ct ngn nu cc nh u
t v ngi cho vay nhn ra rng neo ng tin chc s v.
Ti kho st ranh gii gia cc iu kin gn v xa cn
bng Chng 4. N s l ng lc chnh ca l thuyt ca
ti v lch s. Ti thi im ny, ti mun a ra mt im
Phn thn trong cc Th trng Ti chnh
__________________________________________________

81

thm v nhng tc ng tr li ca din gii ca ti v cc th
trng ti chnh ln bn thn cc th trng ti chnh.
Ci g xy ra khi quan h phn thn gia ci cn bn v
nh gi c ngi tham gia th trng nhn ra? N cng tr
thnh mt ngun bt n nh. N c khuynh hng dn ti
nhn mnh ci gi l cc yu t k thut b qua ci cn bn
v gy ra u c theo xu th. iu ny c tc ng lm mt n
nh. Lm sao c th duy tr s n nh? Mt cch l tip tc
da vo ci cn bn, bt chp s thc rng n c th b nh
hng bi s nh gi ca chng ta. iu ny c th t c
bng tp luyn ngu dt. Nu ngi tham gia th trng khng
bit v phn thn, lng tin vo ci cn bn s c khuynh
hng gi cc th trng n nh; song s ngu dt lm cho
cc th trng b nguy him vi s o ngc khi sai st trong
din gii thnh hnh c bc l (nh trong conglomerate
boom). Lm sao c th duy tr n nh khi ngi tham gia th
trng bit tnh phn thn? Cu tr li l n khng th c
thc hin ring bi nhng ngi tham gia th trng: Duy tr
tnh n nh phi tr thnh mt mc tiu ca chnh sch cng.
C th thy bn thn khi nim phn thn l phn thn theo
ngha l chng mc n c nhn ra n s lm thay i ng
x. L thuyt kinh t c in thc s khuyn khch xu th
ti cn bng bng cch b qua tnh phn thn v nhn mnh
tm quan trng ca ci cn bn. Tng t, l thuyt th trng
hiu qu c th c tc ng n nh bng cch khuyn khch
cc hot ng kinh doanh chnh lch gi san bng cc nh
gi bt bnh thng, vi iu kin n khng c lm qu
nh trong trng hp ca Long Term Capital Magagement
(LTCM, mt qu t bo him dng n by mnh phi cu
vt). Ngc li, l l ca ti dn n kt lun l khng th
mc th trng t gii quyt. Bit tnh phn thn ch lm tng
bt n nh tr phi cc nh chc trch cng thc ngang th
v n v can thip khi bt n nh e do vt khi tm tay.
Vn bt n nh tr nn trm trng hn. Lng tin vo
nhng ci cn bn ang b xi mn, v ng x theo xu th
ang tng. N c c v bi nh hng ngy cng tng ca
GEORGE SOROS
___________________________________________________

82
cc nh u t nh ch m thnh tch ca h c o bng
thnh tch tng i hn l tuyt i v ca cc ngn hng
trung tm tin hot ng nh nhng ngi kin to th trng
v tin t v cc cng c phi sinh: H c li t tnh d
bin ng tng ln c nh nhng ngi kin to th trng ln
nh cc nh cung cp cc c ch t bo him. Vai tr ca cc
qu t bo him c tnh nc i hn: nh ngi s dng n
by, h gp phn vo tnh d bin ng, song mc h
c thc y bi thnh tch tuyt i h thng i ngc xu
th. V phn thn l mt qu trnh lch s, hon ton c th l
cc th trng tr nn bt n nh hn k c gn y (mc d
ti loi tr s lp li ca 1929). Ti cp vn ny Phn
II, ni ti kho st khng hong 1997-1999.


So snh Hai Cch Tip cn

Ti cho rng khi nim phn thn cho mt din gii v cc th
trng ti chnh hot ng ra sao tt hn khi nim cn bng.
Cc th trng ti chnh lun trong bt cn bng, i khi di
xa, i khi tin ti ci c th coi l cn bng - tc l, mt s
tng ng gia k vng v kt qu. Bn thn cn bng hin ra
ch nh mt trng hp gii hn.
Ti tin cung cp th d chng t tnh hp l ca
cch tip cn ca ti. Rt cuc, duy nht mt th nghim vt
en mt tri chng t thiu st ca vt l hc Newton
v thit lp tn nhim l thuyt tng i ca Einstein. Nhng
c s khc bit to ln gia l thuyt ca Einstein v ca ti.
Einstein c th tin on cc hin tng c th: Th nghim
Michelson-Morley chng minh tnh bt bin ca tc nh
sng v im gn mt tri ca sao Thu xc minh tnh
tng i tng qut. Ti khng th tin on bt k th g tr
tnh khng th tin on c - v iu khng che
du l thuyt ca ti di lt ca s ng tn trng khoa hc.
Cc nh kinh t hc nh Robert Solow loi b din gii ca
ti v n khng cho bt k gii thch tt nh hay tin on v
Phn thn trong cc Th trng Ti chnh
__________________________________________________

83

ng x th trng no. Tt nhin, h ng. Lun im ca ti
l, tnh phn thn a vo mt yu t bt nh ci lm cho cc
th trng ti chnh l khng th tin on c mt cch c
hu. Ti cho rng tha nhn s thc ny t chng ta vo mt
v th tt hn lng trc v phn ng vi bin ng th
trng so vi mt l thuyt c cho l khoa hc; nhng ti
khng to ra mt l thuyt khoa hc.
Cc nh kinh t hc chc thy l l ny l khng th chp
nhn c. H c th dn nguyn l bt nh Heisenberg l
l ngc li. N lin quan n bt nh, nhng n to ra cc
tin on c th kim tra c da trn xc sut thng k.
l ci ta mong i t mt l thuyt khoa hc, h ni, v h c
im ng. Din gii ca ti khng to ra xc sut thng k;
n coi mi trng hp nh mt s kin lch s, duy nht. Hn
na, ti tin rng, ngc vi vt l lng t, khng th rt gn
cc chui boom-bust thnh cc xc sut thng k. L do l cc
th trng ti chnh l khng t khp kn. Chng c th nh
hng n nhng ci cn bn m chng c cho l phi
phn nh. Tc ng l khc nhau mi thi im, lm cho
mi trng hp l duy nht.
Nu chng ta b qua tc ng ln nhng ci cn bn, chng
ta c th ti gn nhng khi qut ho thng k. l ci phn
tch k thut lm. N coi th trng c phiu nh mt h thng
khp kn ni ch ci xy ra trong ni b th trng l c lin
quan. iu ct b yu t lm cho mi trng hp l duy
nht. Khi chng ta cn li vi mt s cc trng hp c th
to ra cc xc sut thng k. Th d, nu th trng to mt
gi thp nht, phc hi, v sau th li gi thp nht
nhng khi lng v s c phiu to ra gi thp nht mi t
hn dp trc th c nhiu kh nng th trng to mt
gi y tt, t n chc s phc hi. C nhiu ch s k thut
tinh vi, v c nhiu ngi kim sng bng nghin cu chng.
Nhng c mt sai st trong cch tip cn ny. Th trng
khng phi l mt h thng khp kn. N nh hng n thc
ti, nn cc xc sut thnh hnh hm nay khng phi l nh
chng l trong cc dp trc. i khi iu ny c ngha,
GEORGE SOROS
___________________________________________________

84

i khi khng. L do m cc chui boom-bust khng th c
rt gn thnh cc xc sut thng k l, cc th trng ti chnh
tng tc mi lc vi nhng ci cn bn khc nhau. Ngay c
nu th trng theo cng cc qui tc ng x, thc t cng
khng, v cc khu vc thc t khc nhau lin i cc thi
im khc nhau. Cc cng ti Internet giao im ca th k
hai mi mt khc cc conglomerate ca cui cc nm 1960.
Mt trong cc l do ti nh gi sai cng v trng
ca boom Internet l ti b cc trng hp trc nh hng
qu nhiu. Mi bong bng c mt c s thc t, v nhng
thay i trong thc t gn vi boom Internet l quan trng hn
nhiu so vi, th d, cc thay i trong conglomerate boom,
hay bowling boom, hay boom c bc. Nu cc l thuyt khoa
hc phi cung cp nhng gii thch v tin on tt nh hay
xc sut, th cc th trng ti chnh c th khng tun theo
cch gii quyt khoa hc.
Li ln na, cc nh ph bnh ca ti khng tn thnh. H
ch ra rng, trong khong thi gian k t khi ti vit Gi Kim
thut Ti chnh, c nhiu tin b trong l thuyt kinh t tin
ti phn tch khoa hc cc hin tng phn thn.
B ch trch chc tc, ti cm thy buc phi kim tra vn
. Ti phi cng nhn l mt vi s phn i ca h c
bin minh. Ti khng phi l ngi duy nht nhn ra thiu st
ca cc th trng ti chnh. Nhiu im m ti mun a ra
c cc ngi khc trong tro lu t tng chnh v kinh
t hin i trau chut ri. Th d, tng v a cn bng
c chp nhn rng ri, v ci gi l cc l thuyt th h hai
v khng hong tin t cho phn hi phn thn pht huy y
.
19
C mt mn mi kinh t hc hnh vi - pht trin
nghin cu cc khc bit gia hnh vi thc s v duy l.
Ti c th ang qut con nga cht khi ti tn cng k vng
duy l, cng nh ti lm khi c lt ngc ch ngha thc
chng logic. t n im khi cc l thuyt v cnh tranh
hon ho, v k vng duy l, v v cc th trng hiu qu c

19
Xem Robert Flood and Nancy Marion, Perspective on the Recent Currency Crisis
Literature, National Bureau of Economic Reasearch Working Paper No. W6380, Jan., 1998.
Phn thn trong cc Th trng Ti chnh
__________________________________________________

85

nhiu l hng hn ni dung. Tnh hnh chn mui cho
chuyn dch h thuyt; th m s chuyn dch vn cha xy
ra. Cc l l khot cc l hng trong cc th trng hiu qu
vn c din t bng cn bng hn l bt cn bng ng.
Theo ti, khi nim a cn bng l mt s dng t sai; bt
cn bng ng thch hp hn. Thiu st ch yu ti thy l
hu ht tho lun c din t bng thng tin, ch khng
bng phn on. iu ny dn ti cc l l v thng tin bt i
xng, khng v thay i thin kin thnh hnh. Ni cc dch
chuyn thin kin c tha nhn, chng c c tnh tu tin,
trong khi ti nhn mnh c ch phn hi phn thn. l s
khc bit gia a cn bng v bt cn bng ng thc s.
Ti, tuy vy, phi th nhn rng l thuyt boom-bust c
phc tho trong cun sch ny thm ch c nng lc tin on
t hn mt s trong ti liu khoa hc gn y: N c th lm
khp bt k qu trnh boom-bust no sau khi xy ra, v n
cng khai t chi bt k nng lc tin on no cho din tin
tng lai ca cc s kin. Th nhng, ti tin rng l ci tt
nht chng ta c th lm: thit lp cc gi thuyt v kim
chng chng i vi cc s kin khi chng bc l. Rc ri vi
cc gi thuyt ny khng phi l chng khng th c chng
minh l c th sai; m l chng t ra l sai qu thng xuyn.
Song vn tt hn gi thuyt bc ngu nhin, vi iu kin
chng ta c trc gic no v sn sng sa cc sai lm ca
mnh. S thc l l thuyt boom-bust ca ti to ra kt qu
tt hn bc ngu nhin. Cng ng th vi phn tch k thut
thnh tho, s khc bit l ch n da vo cc khi qut ho
thng k trong khi cch tip cn ca ti coi cc th trng ti
chnh nh mt din tin lch s, duy nht ca cc s kin.
Ti khng ngh ti c th b cho l chu trch nhim v
khng to ra c mt l thuyt c kh nng tin on din
tin lch s, duy nht ca cc s kin khi ti cho rng khng
th c l thuyt no nh vy. D c ng nh th, phi c
cch tt hn nghin cu cc hin tng khng th tin
on c mt cch c hu nh vy. Ti tin mnh ng khi
cho rng n lc pht trin mt h thuyt mi. Ti thiu
GEORGE SOROS
___________________________________________________

86
nng lc lm vy v ti khng c k nng ton hc cn
thit. Nhng, hnh th ca h thuyt mi th kh r trong tm
tr ti, v ti s th m t n bng li.


Mt H thuyt Mi

Chng ta phi t b hai nh kin c yu mn ca l thuyt
kinh t lin quan n cc th trng ti chnh. Mt l ng x
duy l; hai l cn bng, bao gm lun im l gi lm cn
bng [clear] th trng.
Cc k vng duy l l thch hp trong mt th gii ni cc k
vng ca nhng ngi tham gia khng c nh hng ln cc
s kin m chng gn vi. Khi ngi tham gia v tr ca
mt nh quan st c th thu thp mi thng tin sn c v i
n quyt nh ca mnh trn c s thng tin . Cc quyt
nh y c ci g xc nh tng ng vi - c th l, cn
bng d kin. Tt nhin, chng ngi tham gia no c tt c
thng tin sn c, nhng theo nh ngha ngi tham gia khc
no c - nu khng th thng tin s khng l sn c. Nh
th th trng bit nhiu hn bt k ngi tham gia ring no;
n bit mi th cn phi bit; v th th trng lun lun
ng. Nhng ngi tham gia c gi thit l duy l
nhn ra s thc ny v hnh ng mt cch ph hp. l s
bin minh, th d, cho u t trong cc qu ch s. Nu thc t
lch khi cn bng phi c l do cho vic y; l do thng
c tm thy trong thng tin bt i xng. Th d, a cn
bng gn vi khng hong tn dng c th qui cho thng tin
bt i xng sn c cho cc lp khc nhau ca cc ch n.
khng phi l cch th gii hot ng. Nhng ngi
tham gia khng n thun l cc nh quan st; quyt nh ca
h nh hng n tng lai. H t c s cho cc quyt nh
ca mnh trn linh cm, khng trn thng tin, v thng tin v
linh cm tr nn sn c ch sau khi n lm cho nh hng
ca n c th cm nhn c. Trong cc hon cnh ny,
khng hp l hnh ng trn c s cc k vng duy l. Mt
Phn thn trong cc Th trng Ti chnh
__________________________________________________

87


s ngi c th lm vy, ngi khc c th khng. Nhng
ngi khc nhau theo cc qui tc quyt nh khc nhau, v h
sa chng di nh sng kinh nghim. Thay cho ng x duy
l, thch hp v sng t hn ni v ng x thch nghi.
iu ny to h thuyt mi m chng ta cn. ng x thch
nghi c th c nghin cu c theo thi gian, ln vt tin ho
ca n, hay theo khng gian, so snh cc trng hp c biu
hin ging nhau. C hai cch tip cn tch lu s ti liu
ng k. Cch tip cn tin ho c xc lp k cc lnh vc
nghin cu khc, c bit l sinh hc tin ho v cc dng
khc ca l thuyt cc h thng tin ho. N cng bt u xm
nhp kinh t hc qua p dng l thuyt tr chi. L thuyt tr
chi bt u vi gi thit ng x duy l song n em li kt
qu l th hn nhiu t khi n t b gi thit . Bng cch
kho st th lng nan ca phm nhn (prisoners dilemma)
qua cc cuc tranh ua my tnh, mt ti ti s tho lun
chi tit hn Chng 4. tng chung l nhn din cc
chin lc m nhng ngi tham gia p dng hn l nhn
din mt chin lc c bit nh mt chin lc duy l. Khi
c th nghin cu cc chin lc ny tin trin th no qua
m phng hay quan st trn my tnh. C phng php lun
c pht trin tt lm iu ny: N bao gm vic xc lp
s tng trng hay suy gim ca s ngi (population) s
dng cc chin lc c bit. N c bit thch hp cho nghin
cu tng tc gia cc th sn mi v con mi, nhng n c
th c dng tng qut hn. Ti bit cch tip cn ny nh
cng trnh ca Peter Allen, ngi tin hnh nghin cu ngh
c Canada.
20
ng gi thit rng ng dn chia ra hai nhm:
Nhng ngi theo Decartes tp trung vo cc khu vc tm
thy c ri, v nhng ngi thc dng th li rng hn.
Jeffrey Frankel v Kenneth Froot
21
dng mt cch tip cn

20
Peter M. Allen, Evolving Complexity in Social Science, trong Systems: New Paradigms
for the Human Sciences, edited by Gabriel Altman and Walter A. Koch (Berlin: Walter de
Gruyter, 1998), trang 3-38.
21
Jeffrey A. Frankel and Kenneth A, Froot, Chartists, Fundamentalists, and the Demand for
Dollars, trong Private Behavior and Government Policy in Interdependent Economies,
edited by Anthony Courakis and Mark Taylor (Oxford, U. K.: Clarendon Press, 1990).
GEORGE SOROS
___________________________________________________

88
tng t khi h phn bit gia cc nh u t theo th v
theo thuyt chnh thng. Cch tip cn ny phn nh bn cht
ng ca tng tc phn thn gia t duy v thc ti, gia cc
k vng v kt qu. N khng loi tr mt cn bng cui
cng, nhng khng nht thit to ra mt cn bng. Tt c cc
kt lun da trn gi nh cn bng u vp ng.
dng cch tip cn ny trong cc th trng ti chnh,
quan trng l phi nhn ra rng gi thnh hnh khng nht
thit lm cn bng th trng. iu ny i ngc mt trong
nhng nh kin c yu mn nht v th trng v cn mt
li gii thch. L thuyt kinh t coi cc th trng ti chnh c
nh chng trong cn bng lin tc; tt hn nhiu i tha
nhn rng chng trong bt cn bng lin tc. Ti bt k thi
im no, c nhng ngi mua v bn tim nng c th b x
ra bn l bi bin ng th trng. Mt s thc s khng c
tho mn: H mun mua hay bn nhiu hn h c th vi gi
. Nhng ngi khc do d, v mt bin ng th trng c
th kch mt quyt nh hoc theo cng hay ngc chiu.
Khng c qui tc a priori (tin nghim) no xc nh nhm
no mnh hn. Chc chn khng c l do no gi thit rng
mt s gim gi s lm tng cu v lm gim cung v ngc
li. Nhng ngi theo xu th c th hn nhng ngi c
gi l cc nh u t gi tr. Vic s dng option (quyn
chn) v cc cng c phi sinh (derivatives) cng to ra cu
v cung kim ch, ci thng cng c xu th thnh hnh.
Trong cc hon cnh nht nh, sc y t cc cng c phi
sinh c th mnh gy ra mt s gin on.
Mt li th ca cch nhn cc th trng theo cch ny l n
bin minh cho phn tch k thut. Nu gi nh gi th trng
phn nh th ng nhng ci cn bn, th phn tch k thut
khng c ngha g; nhng nu cc th trng trong bt cn
bng lin tc, cc du kim ln v kim xung cho thng tin
c gi tr v cng ca cu v cung, v phn tch k thut
c vai din vai ln n u ph thuc vo cc chin lc
m nhng ngi tham gia chp nhn. im quan trng l c
ch cho cc chin lc khc nhau, v c ngha nghin
Phn thn trong cc Th trng Ti chnh
__________________________________________________

89

cu ng x thch nghi. L thuyt tr chi tin ho, nh php
lp (iteration) ca th lng nan ca phm nhn, t ra c bit
ha hn i vi ti. Tuy ti khng v th pht trin y
h thuyt mi, ch t ti c th thy hnh th n s ly. N
s thay cc phng trnh ca l thuyt cn bng bng qui
hoch phi tuyn ca l thuyt cc h thng tin ho.
H thuyt mi s ly i nn mng khoa hc ca thuyt th
trng chnh thng. Khng cn th coi l d nhin, rng cc
th trng c khuynh hng tin ti cn bng; thc vy, cc
m hnh phi tuyn chng t r l thng th chng khng.
C s bnh vc mnh m cho cc th trng t do, nhng
s bin h khng da vo xu hng tin ti cn bng. N xut
pht t tc ng gii phng ngi dn theo ui mc ch
ca h. Cc th trng t do gii phng nng lc sng to ca
tr tu con ngi. V kha cnh ny, chng ging nh cc
quyn t do khc, v ngn lun v t duy v v hi hp chnh
tr. Quyn t do c gi tr ring ca n, v n cng l mt
ngun to ra ca ci. To thnh vng l mt qu trnh ng,
trong khi l thuyt cn bng l tnh; v th n khng thy phm
cht ch yu ca h thng t bn ch ngha. C ch th trng
l mt phn thit yu ca mt x hi m. iu ny khng phi
v cc th trng c khuynh hng tin ti cn bng m v
chng cho nhng ngi tham gia quyn t do la chn.
Phn tch k thut, nh hin n c dng, s dng cch
tip cn khc nh ti nhc n, so snh cc trng hp
khc nhau c hnh mu ng x tng t v th c lng cc
xc sut trn c s kinh nghim qu kh. Phn tch k thut
khng b vng vu bi gi thit v tnh duy l song phm vi
ca n b gii hn bi s thc l cc th trng ti chnh
khng to thnh mt h thng khp kn. Chng lin tc nhn
c cc xung lc t th gii bn ngoi ci m bo rng
tng lai s khng l s lp li c hc ca qu kh. Bn thn
phn tch k thut l mt xung lc nh vy; l l do v sao
n ging gi kim thut hn l khoa hc. V cc phng php
khoa hc khng thch hp cho nghin cu cc hin tng x
GEORGE SOROS
___________________________________________________

90

hi, phn tch k thut khng th b gt b v n khng l khoa
hc; ta phi, tuy vy, phng bn cht gi kim thut ca n.
Cc nh kinh t hc bt u s dng phn tch so snh
cho nhiu loi hin tng khc cc th trng ti chnh. Th
d, cc nh kinh t hc Ngn hng Th gii ang th phn
tch cc hin tng nh tham nhng
22
v khi ngha v
trang
23
bng cch coi chng nh cc hot ng kinh t. Cch
tip cn ca h b cng hn ch nh phn tch k thut: Trong
th tnh cc xc sut, h mt khung cnh trong mi
trng hp c bit xy ra. Chng cn b thm mt bt li: H
phi tm cch lng ho d liu ca h, cn cc nh nghin
cu cc th trng ti chnh c sn d liu c lng ho
dng. Tuy vy, ti thy cc n lc tin phong ny tht hp
dn. Ti coi chng nh cc lm lc mu m: Chng a ra
nhng thu hiu gip hiu cc vn nhng chng khng
to ra mt khung kh ton din x l chng. Khi qut ho
cn c kt hp vi tri thc cc b
24
v s kt hp ca hai
th ha hn ci thin thnh tch ca cc nh hoch nh chnh
sch. Ngay c ng nh th, ng dng k thut x hi s
chng bao gi c kh nng t tin cy ca k thut c kh.
C s tng t y vi tnh bt trc trit i mt vi
nhng ngi tham gia trong cc th trng ti chnh.
Tm tt li: Trong khun kh ca h thuyt mi v ng x
thch nghi tch bit khi ng x duy l, c ch cho mt cch
tip cn theo chiu dc, nghin cu s tin ho ca cc h
thng theo thi gian v mt cch tip cn theo chiu ngang, so
snh cc tnh hung tng t. Cch tip cn u tin c xu
hng dng qui hoch phi tuyn, cch th hai, phn tch hi
qui. C hai cn c b sung bng tri thc a phng.

22
Daniel Kaufman, Aart Kraay and Pablo Zoido-Lobaton, Governance Matters
(Washington D.C: World Bank Policy Research Working Paper No. 2196, August 1999).
Xem c Daniel Kaufman, Corruption: The Facts (Washinhton D.C: Foreign Policy,
Summer 1997).
23
Pau Collier, Economic Causes of Civil Conflic and their Implications for Policy
(Washington D.C: World Bank, June 15, 2000).
24
Mt im c Ivan Krustev nu r trong The Strange (Re)Discovery of Corruption
trong The Paradoxes of Unintended Consequenses (Budapest: CEU Press, 2000).


CHNG 4

Phn thn trong Lch s












i din gii cc th trng ti chnh nh mt qu
trnh lch s khng thun nghch; v th din gii ca
ti cng phi c tnh tho ng no i vi lch s
ni chung. Ti phn cc s kin thnh hai loi: cc s kin
bun t thng nht khng gy ra mt s thay i v nhn
thc, v cc s kin lch s, duy nht nh hng n thin
kin ca ngi tham gia v, n lt n, dn ti thay i v
nhng ci cn bn. S phn bit mang tnh tautologic nhng
hu ch. Loi s kin u tin nhy cm vi phn tch cn
bng, loi th hai th khng: N ch c th c hiu ch nh
mt phn ca mt qu trnh lch s.
T


Php Bin chng

Trong cc s kin thng nht, c hm tham gia ln hm nhn
thc khng thay i ng k. Trong trng hp nhng din
bin duy nht, khng thun nghch, c hai hm s hot ng
ng thi theo cch c quan im ca ngi tham gia ln tnh
GEORGE SOROS
___________________________________________________

92
hnh khng cn nh nhau. l ci bin minh cho s m t
s pht trin nh vy l c tnh lch s.
Qu trnh lch s, theo ti, l c ng. Khi mt tnh th
c nhng ngi tham gia bit suy ngh, chui s kin khng
dn trc tip t mt tp cc s thc sang tp tip theo; ng
hn, n kt ni s thc vi nhn thc v nhn thc vi s
thc theo mt hnh mu dy giy. Nhng lch s l mt loi
dy giy rt c bit. Hai bn ca giy khng c lm t
cng vt liu; thc vy ch mt bn l vt cht - bn kia gm
cc tng ca nhng ngi tham gia. Hai bn khng khp
nhau, v s khc bit gia chng xc nh hnh th ca cc s
kin buc chng li vi nhau. Cc nt c buc ri c
hnh th xc nh, song tng lai c b ng.
iu ny l kh khc c ch m chc nng ca n c th
c gii thch v tin on bi cc qui lut c hiu lc ph
qut. Trong din tin lch s, qu kh v tng lai l khng
thun nghch, nh trong m hnh Karl Popper v phng php
khoa hc. Ci lm cho tng lai khc qu kh l s la chn
m nhng ngi tham gia buc phi (v c c n) thc hin
da trn c s thng tin khng hon ho ca h. S la chn
a mt yu t bt nh vo din tin ca cc s kin.
Nhng mu toan loi b n bng thit lp cc qui lut v ng
x con ngi phi chu s phn tht bi.
L thuyt dy giy ny v lch s l mt loi bin chng
gia t duy ca chng ta v thc ti. Vi t cch nh th, n
c th c din gii nh mt s tng hp ca bin chng v
cc tng ca Hegel v ch ngha duy vt bit chng ca
Marx. Georg Wilhelm Friedrich Hegel a ra mt lun
rng cc tng pht trin mt cch bin chng v cui cng
dn n s kt thc ca lch s - s t do. Karl Marx, hoc
chnh xc hn Friedrich Engels, cung cp mt phn cho
rng s pht trin ca cc tng c cc iu kin v quan
h sn xut xc nh; thng tng kin trc t tng ch l
phn nh ca h tng c s. L thuyt dy giy khi c th
c coi l mt s tng hp. Thay cho hoc cc t tng hay
cc iu kin vt cht tin ho mt cch bin chng ring bit,
Phn thn trong Lch s
__________________________________________________



93
chnh s tng tc gia hai th l ci to ra qu trnh bin
chng. Ti gi s tng tc ny l tnh phn thn, v l do duy
nht ti khng dng t bin chng mt cch d thy hn l
ti khng mun b qu ti bi hnh l tha i cng vi n. Rt
cuc, Marx xut mt l thuyt tt nh v lch s ngc
hon ton vi din gii ca ring ti. S tng tc gia vt
cht v l tng l l th chnh xc v chng khng tng ng
vi nhau hoc xc nh ln nhau. Thiu tng ng lm cho
thin kin ca nhng ngi tham gia l lc lng nhn qu
trong lch s. Tnh c th sai - c biu hin trong nhng sai
lm ng cng vai tr trong cc s kin lch s nh t bin
gen trong cc s hin sinh hc: N lm nn lch s.


Gen ch k

Sinh hc tin ho tr thnh mt lnh vc nghin cu l th.
Phng php c s dng l i thit lp cc m hnh ng
m t s tin ho ca mt loi trong tng tc vi mi trng.
Mi loi thuc v mi trng ca loi khc. S tin trin ca
tt c cc loi cc th trng ti chnh, gia nh, nh ch -
v l thuyt c th c nghin cu bng cng phng php.
Trong cc hon cnh no , chng ta c th k vng qu trnh
n nm yn ti mt im cn bng ni khng xy ra s thay
i na nu khng c mt nhiu lon t bn ngoi. Nhng
s l mt trng hp c bit. Trong cc trng hp khc, qu
trnh c th tip tc v hn nh m khng h i n nm yn.
L thuyt kinh t bn tm vi vic tm ra im cn bng;
nghin cu lch s phi tp trung vo qu trnh xy ra lin tc.
Khng c bng chng no l lch s s c bao gi i n kt
thc chng no loi ngi cn tn ti.
Trong nghin cu lch s, s l sai lm i coi con ngi ht
nh cc loi khc. C phm cht no kh nh v v nh
ngha - ci lm cho con ngi ni bt ln. Hn l nng lc la
chn - con chut trong mt m cung lm iu - chnh l
nng lc la chn cc ng c thc y ca mnh l ci phn
GEORGE SOROS
___________________________________________________

94
bit con ngi vi cc ng vt khc. Khng c s bt nh
no v ng c ca mt con chut khi n chn mt con ng
hn l con ng khc: N mun ming ph mt. Khng c
s chc chn tng ng v cc ng c thc y ca con
ngi, v l mt sai lm i b qua s khc bit.
Sinh hc tin ho hin i cho tng chn lc t nhin
ca Darwin cuc sng mi. Cc chin lc c theo ui
mc loi c th thy hu hiu mc gen: Cc chin lc
thnh cng dn n s lan truyn ca cc gen trong cc
chin lc ny c ghi vo. iu ny to ra nh v gen
ch k. Tn gi, tt nhin, c tnh n d, v s l gi mo
qui mt ng c thc y cho gen, v nhng ngi theo
thuyt Darwin hin i cn thn ch ra iu ny. S nhn ln
ca cc gen l khng c ch ; n l h qu t nhin ca s
sng st ca c th thch hp nht - tc l, ca mt chin lc
thnh cng. Qui tc ny xem ra l ph qut, p dng cho con
ngi cng nh cc loi khc.
Nhng, vn c mt s khc bit cn bn: Con ngi tin
hnh hnh vi c ch . Mi lin kt gia cc chin lc thnh
cng v s truyn lan gen t trc tip hn so vi cc loi khc.
N khng hon ton vng; con ngi khng b mt ngun
gc ng vt ca n. Khng c ng phn chia t ngt;
ng hn l, con ngi chng mt lp hnh vi khc ln c
s ng vt, v lp khng b ch ng bi cu to gen ca
h cng mc nh hnh vi mang tnh bn nng hn ca
h. Chnh lp c ch ny l ci gii thch hu ht nh hng
m con ngi c kh nng dng i vi mi trng ca h.
Lp c ch cng a vo mt yu t bt nh - c th l, s
bt nh v nh l ci thiu vng hnh vi ca cc sinh
vt khc.
K thut gen hin nay ang c nhng tin b nhanh. Chng
ta ngy cng c th nh hng n no ngi hot ng ra
sao. Nhng, nu khng bin con ngi thnh robot, th chng
ta s khng c kh nng loi b tnh bt trc c hu trong
hnh vi con ngi. Ti tin khi nim v tnh phn thn v l
Phn thn trong Lch s
__________________________________________________



95
thuyt dy giy v lch s din t tnh bt trc ny tt hn l
thuyt gen ch k.
C mt s khc nhau gia nh v kt qu; kt qu lm
thay i nh, ci n lt n li lm thay i kt qu trong
mt qu trnh chng bao gi kt thc, chng mc no l
ging vi tin ho sinh hc, nhng chng mc no y l
khc. l ci ti c nh khi ti ni rng s thay i sinh
hc ct t bin gen v c th c o bng s lan truyn
gen, trong khi bin i lch s ct nhng nhn thc sai v c
th o c bng khong cch gia nh v kt qu.
Khi n vi hnh vi con ngi, c th nghi ng rng lch s
c th c gii thch n mc no bng cc qui tc ca
gen ch k. i khi ngi ta nui dng cc nh tng ng
vi li ch ca gen ch k, nhng khng phi lun lun. Gen
ch k ng mt vai tr quan trng hin nhin trong ni ngi
triu i, nhng ngay c Shakespeare a ra vi nhn xt
l th nh tn ti hay khng tn ti- ci vt qu xa gii
hn ca l thuyt gen ch k.


M hnh Boom-Bust

Vn l th l bin i lch s c th c m hnh ra sao.
Nh ti nhc ti Chng 3, ti tin l thuyt tr chi tin
ho vch phng hng: Nghin cu hnh vi (ng x) thch
nghi dng nh c ngha hn gi thit ng x duy l.
Ti th nhn chng ri, ti khng c kh nng
pht trin mt h thuyt mi. C sinh hc tin ho ln l
thuyt tr chi tin ho i theo tin ho ca dn s (s c th)
theo ui cc chin lc no : Cc ng dn theo Decartes
v thc dng trong ngnh c Canada, cc nh u t gi tr v
nhng ngi bun bn theo trong trng hp th trng
chng khon. Ti coi cch tip cn ny c ha hn hn l
thuyt k vng duy l, nhng ti thiu k nng pht trin n.
Ti xut mt m hnh boom-bust cho cc th trng ti
chnh, mc d n ch l mt minh ho v hot ng phn thn
GEORGE SOROS
___________________________________________________

96
hn l mt l thuyt khoa hc. Ti thy n hu ch nh mt
ch da trong cc quyt nh u t ca ti, nhng n c th
d dng sp nu ta t qu nhiu trng ti ln n. By gi
ti s m rng m hnh cho lch s ni chung bng a ra
mt din gii boom-bust v s ni ln v sp ca h thng
Soviet. y s l mt s phiu diu tng tng hn l mt
minh ho, song n c u im cho php ti a ra khung kh
quan nim ca mnh bng cch s dng mt th d c th c
th nh s gim nh d chu khi tho lun tru tng.
lm vic ny ti n thun theo nh v tnh c th sai trit
bng cch y mt lm lc mu m n gii hn ca n.


S Ni ln v Sp ca H thng Soviet

Ti dnh dng tch cc vo lm tan r h thng Soviet. Vi
t cch mt ngi phn i cc x hi khp kn (ng), ti
ho hc gip cho s qua i ca n. Ti pht trin mt
din gii boom-bust v tnh hnh, hng dn hnh ng ca
ti. Ti cng b n nm 1990 trong mt cun sch c ta
M H thng Soviet (Opening the Soviet System). Phn tip
s trnh by ti phn tch tnh hnh lc ra sao.
Thin kin ban u (h t tng cng sn) v xu hng ban
u (n p) dn ti mt x hi ng. c mt mi quan
h tng cng ln nhau gia tnh cng nhc ca gio l cng
sn v s cng nhc ca cc iu kin x hi thnh hnh. H
thng t nh im ca n trong vi nm cui ca s cai tr
ca Stalin. N bao trm ton b: mt hnh thc ca chnh
ph, mt h thng kinh t, mt ch lnh th, v mt h t
tng. H thng bao hm ton din, c lp khi th gii
bn ngoi, v khng nao nng. c mt vc thm gia hon
cnh thc t v din gii chnh thng v n, ci rng hn
nhiu so vi c th duy tr c trong mt x hi m. Ti coi
iu ny nh mt trng hp bt cn bng tnh.
Sau ci cht ca Stalin, c mt gi pht ngn ngi, gi
pht th thch, khi Nikita Khrushchev tit l mt vi b mt
Phn thn trong Lch s
__________________________________________________



97
cai tr ca Stalin, nhng cui cng h thng th bc ti khng
nh mnh. Mt giai on chng vng bt u, khi gio l vn
c duy tr bng cc phng php hnh chnh nhng khng
cn c cng c bng lng tin vo hiu lc ca n. L th l,
tnh cng nhc ca h thng tng ln. Chng no cn c
mt nh chuyn ch ang sng cm li, ng li ca ng
Cng sn c th thay i theo hng ca ng ta. Song by gi
ch c cc nh quan liu iu hnh, tnh uyn chuyn
mt i. ng thi, s khng b buc ngi dn chp nhn
gio iu cng sn cng du i, v mt qu trnh sa st t nh
bt u. Cc nh ch dng mnh kho c a v. V chng
ci no c quyn t tr, mi nh ch phi tin hnh mt
dng trao i vi cc nh ch khc. Dn dn mt h thng
tinh vi v mc c nh ch thay cho ci c coi l k
hoch ho tp trung. ng thi, mt nn kinh t phi chnh
thc pht trin b sung v lp cc l hng do h thng
chnh thng li. Nn kinh t k hoch ho c th sp
nu khng c n. Giai on chng vng ny l ci nay
c gi l thi k tr tr. S khng tho ng ny ca h
thng ngy cng tr nn hin nhin, v p lc cho ci cch
tng ln.
Ci cch gia tc qu trnh tan r, v n a ra hay hp
php ho cc la chn kh d khc (trong khi h thng ph
thuc vo s thiu cc la chn kh d cho s sng st ca
n). Ci cch kinh t c mt thi k u thnh cng trong
mi nc cng sn, vi ngoi l ng ch ca bn thn Lin
X. Cc nh ci cch Trung Quc gi pha ny l giai on
vng, khi tng lng vn c hng li tho mn nhu
cu ca ngi tiu dng. Lin X khng thc hin c
ngay c nhim v tng i d ny.
Cc n lc ci cch h thng cng sn da trn mt nhn
thc sai: H thng khng th c ci cch, v n khng cho
php phn b kinh t ca vn. Cn s thay i trit hn.
Khi nng lc hin ti c ti nh hng, qu trnh ci
cch bt u cn kit ngun lc. C th hiu c v sao iu
ny li th. Ch ngha cng sn mun l thuc gii c cho
GEORGE SOROS
___________________________________________________

98
ch ngha t bn, ci lm cng nhn xa lnh cc t liu sn
xut. Tt c ti sn c nh nc nm ly, v nh nc l
s hin thn ca li ch tp th nh c ng xc nh. V
th ng chu trch nhim phn b vn. iu ny c ngha l
vn c phn b khng trn c s kinh t m trn c s ca
mt gio iu chnh tr, gn nh tn gio. S tng t hay
nht l vic xy dng kim t thp ca cc pharao: Phn
ngun lc dnh cho u t c ti a ho, trong khi li ch
kinh t t n vn cc tiu. Mt im tng t khc l cc
khon u t c hnh thc ca cc d n s nguy nga.
Chng ta c th xem cc p thu in khng l, cc nh my
thp, cc phng i p hoa cng nguy nga ca tu in
ngm Moscow, v cc nh chc tri c kin trc Stalinist nh
bao nhiu kim t thp c cc pharao hin i xy dng.
Cc p thu in c to ra nng lng in, cc nh my
thp c sn xut ra thp, nhng nu thp v nng lng c
dng to ra nhiu p thu in v nhiu nh my thp
hn, th tc ng ln nn kinh t chng khc my tc ng ca
xy cc kim t thp.
Khung kh l thuyt ca chng ta ni vi chng ta rng
trong hon cnh xa cn bng ca mt x hi ng phi c
nhng mo m khng th hnh dung ni trong mt x hi m.
Ta c th kim minh ho no tt hn nn kinh t Soviet? H
thng cng sn chng qui cho vn gi tr no; chnh xc hn,
n khng cng nhn khi nim quyn ti sn. Kt qu l, hot
ng kinh t di h thng Soviet n gin khng mang tnh
kinh t. lm th, ng phi khc bit vai tr ca n vi t
cch ngi canh gc v phn b vn. Chnh im ny m
mi n lc ci cch nht thit tht bi.
L th l, s tht bi ca cc ci cch kinh t lm tng tc
qu trnh tan r v n chng t nhu cu v ci cch chnh tr.
Vi s xut hin ca perestroika Lin X, qu trnh tan r
bc vo pha kt thc ca n v ci cch ch yu mang
tnh chnh tr v, nh ti nhc ti trc, giai on vng
thiu cho nn ci cch to ra t hoc khng to ra li ch
kinh t no. Khi mc sng bt u gim, cng lun quay li
Phn thn trong Lch s
__________________________________________________



99

chng ch , dn ti s tan r th thm ln n nh im
s sp hon ton ca Lin X.
Hnh mu l hu nh ng nht vi hnh mu chng ta
quan st thy cc th trng ti chnh - vi mt s khc bit
ch yu: Trong cc th trng ti chnh, qu trnh boom-bust
dng nh t th hin mnh nh mt qu trnh tng tc, trong
khi trng hp ca h thng Soviet ton b chu k bao gm
hai pha, mt l mt qu trnh gim tc ln nh im trong
bt cn bng tnh ca ch Stalin, pha khc l mt qu trnh
tng tc dn ti s sp th thm.
25

Sau ti i tip ch ra rng c kh nng tm ra mt qu
trnh boom-bust gm hai pha tng t trong cc th trng ti
chnh. l ni s minh ho bin thnh phiu diu tng
tng. Ti trch dn trng hp ca h thng ngn hng Hoa
K, c iu tit mt cch cng nhc sau s sp ca n
nm 1933. N vn ra sut khong ba mi lm nm. Nm
1972 ti vit mt bo co u t c ta The Case for
Growth Banks - Trng hp cc Ngn hng Tng trng cho
rng mt ngnh m yu sp hi sinh. Ngnh b iu tit mc
cao, cc ban qun l l v khng a ri ro, v gi c phiu
khng phn nh thu nhp, nhng tt c sp thay i. Mt
ging mi ca cc nh ngn hng c nui dng
Citibank, v h dn dn to ra ton quc. Di s qun l ca
h, cc ngn hng bt u s dng vn ca mnh mt cch
tho vt hn, v mau chng h s cn kch thch gi c phiu
ca h nhm huy ng thm vn v theo ui vic thn tnh.
Tn hiu c pht ra khi Citibank ng cai mt cuc hp cho
cc nh phn tch chng khon - mt s kin cha tng thy.
B c phiu do ti khuyn ngh tng gi 50 phn trm trong
vng mt nm. Ngay sau l khng hong du m nm
1973, v cc ngn hng quc t quay vng thng d ca
cc nc sn xut du, dn n boom cho vay quc t ca cc
nm 1970. H thng ngn hng lm vo bt cn bng ng,
ln nh im khng hong cho vay quc t nm 1982.

25
C ng t Chng 4 ca George Soros, Opening the Soviet System (London: Weidenfield
and Nicolson, 1990; do CEU Press in li, Budapest).
GEORGE SOROS
___________________________________________________

100

Nt ni bt ca s so snh khin cng ny gia s ni ln
ri sp ca h thng Soviet v s sp ri ni ln ca h
thng ngn hng M l chng t rng hon cnh xa cn
bng c th thnh hnh c thi cc thay i ln thi cc
khng thay i. X hi ng l mt tng ng ca cch mng
v hn n; mt qu trnh phn thn hot ng c hai thi
cc, s khc bit l cp thi gian. Trong mt x hi
ng, chng c g my xy ra sut thi gian di; trong cch
mng nhiu iu xy ra trong thi gian ngn. Trong c hai
trng hp, nhn thc l rt xa thc ti.
y l mt thu hiu quan trng. Tho lun cc qu trnh
boom-bust trong bi cnh cc th trng ti chnh, thng a
ta n ngh bng tng tc. Nhng xu hng cng c th biu
l dng gim tc, hoc khng c thay i. Mt khi nhn ra
kh nng ny, ti c th tm ra mt th d thc s trong th
trng c phiu: trng hp ca c phiu ngn hng t i
Suy thoi n 1972.
26
Trong lch s, cc trng hp v tr tr,
khng thay i, hoc bt cn bng tnh, l ph bin hn nhiu.


Mt Khung kh Quan nim

Tho lun trn gip thit lp mt khung kh quan nim
phn chia cc tnh hung lch s thnh ba loi: bt cn bng
tnh, gn cn bng, v bt cn bng ng. Kh nng v cn
bng tnh b loi ra bi s thc l nhng ngi tham gia lun
t cc quyt nh ca mnh trn c s din gii thin lch v

26
Ti bt gp mt trng hp tng t Thu in trong cc nm 1960. Th trng c
phiu Thu in khi y hon ton c lp khi phn cn li ca th gii; ta phi bn c phn
Thu in c nm gi nc ngoi c th mua c phn Thu in Thu in. Cc
cng ti c php gi li thu nhp m khng phi ng thu bng cch lp ra cc qu d tr
khc nhau, nhng chng khng th dng cc qu d tr tng c tc. C phn c nh
gi trn c s thu nhp c tc. Kt qu l, c s khc nhau khng khip v t l gi-thu nhp,
v cc cng ti tt nht b nh gi thp mt cch kinh khng (cho n khi ti xut hin v ch
ra vic nh gi thp trong vi bo co). C phn Thu in c nm gi nc ngoi
tng vi cc khon chnh lch to ln, nhng do nhng hn ch v bun bn, mi quan tm
m ti gi ra khng c tho mn, v cui cng th trng quay li ng cho n khi qui
ch thay i.
Phn thn trong Lch s
__________________________________________________



101
thc ti. S tng ng gia kt qu v k vng l kh c
c, v ngay nu n xy ra n c th do thin kin thnh
hnh nh hng n trng thi thnh hnh hn l nhng ngi
tham gia hot ng trn c s tri thc hon ho. Cn li ba
kh nng.
Mt l, tng tc gia cc hm nhn thc v tham gia ngn
t duy v thc ti ri qu xa nhau. Ngi ta hc t kinh
nghim; h hnh ng trn c s quan im thin lch, nhng
c mt qu trnh ph phn hot ng c xu hng sa thin
kin. Tri thc hon ho vn khng th t c, nhng ch t
c mt xu hng cho t duy v thc ti n gn nhau hn.
Hm tham gia m bo rng th gii tht, nh c nhng
ngi tham gia tri qua, lin tc thay i, nhng ngi ta da
kh vng vo mt tp cc gi tr cn bn rng thin kin ca
nhng ngi tham gia khng th lch qu xa vi cc s kin
thc t - ni cch khc, gn cn bng. Trng thi ny c
trng cho x hi m, nh Phng Ty. Loi x hi ny gn
cht vi li suy ngh ph phn. Chng ta c th gi quan h
ny gia t duy v thc ti l bnh thng, v chng ta quen
vi n t kinh nghim ring ca mnh.
Khi chng ta bt gp tp hon cnh th hai trong quan
im ca ngi tham gia l kh xa cch m s vt thc s l
v hai th khng chng t xu hng no l chng tin n
gn nhau trong cc hon cnh no chng c th thm ch
b ko xa hn na. mt thi cc, c cc ch hot ng
vi mt thin kin thc h, v chng khng sn lng iu
chnh theo hon cnh thay i. Chng c p t thc t vo
khung kh quan nim ca h du cho l h c l khng th
thnh cng. Di p lc ca gio l thnh hnh, cc iu kin
x hi c th cng tr nn kh cng nhc, song thc t c kh
nng vn kh xa din gii c cho php ca n. Tht vy,
thiu mt c ch hiu chnh hai th c kh nng ri xa nhau
hn na, v chng c mc p buc no c th ngn thay i
trong th gii thc, trong khi gio l c kh nng vn khng
nao nng. Trng thi ny l c trng ca cc x hi ng,
GEORGE SOROS
___________________________________________________

102

nh Lin X hay ch c ti tn gio Iran. y l bt cn
bng tnh.
thi cc khc, cc s kin c th xy ra nhanh n mc
s hiu bit ca ngi tham gia khng th theo kp chng v
tnh hnh nm ngoi tm kim sot. S khc nhau gia quan
im thnh hnh v iu kin thc t c th tr nn khng th
duy tr c, y nhanh mt cuc cch mng hoc s sp
loi khc no . Li ln na, c s khc nhau xa gia t duy
v thc ti, nhng n nht thit mang tnh qu . Ch c
b qut sch cui cng s c thay th bng mt ch mi.
y l trng hp thay i ch , hoc bt cn bng ng.
Cch mng Php l th d c in, nhng Cch mng Cng
nghip v cc mng truyn thng hin thi cng t cch.

S phn chia ba m ti va gii thiu c th so snh vi ba
trng thi ca nc c th thy trong t nhin: lng, rn, v
hi. S tng t l khin cng, nhng gy hng th. lm
cho n c ngha, chng ta phi nhn din hai ng ranh
gii tch hon cnh gn cn bng v xa cn bng. Trong
trng hp nc, cc ng ranh gii c biu hin bng
nhit . Trong trng hp lch s, cc ng ranh gii
khng th chnh xc v mang tnh nh lng nh vy, song
chng phi cho s phn bit c th nhn bit c; nu khc
i th ton b khung kh quan nim ch l s bay bng ca tr
tng tng.
thit lp ci Popper c th gi l tiu chun v gii
tuyn, ti phi vin dn khi nim v x hi ng v m.
y l cc loi l tng, tng ng vi hon cnh bt cn
bng tnh v gn cn bng.
27
Ti xy dng chng khong bn

27
X hi m v x hi ng to thnh cc loi l tng. M hnh ho cc loi l tng l mt
phng php chnh ng cho nghin cu x hi. N c Max Weber hp php ho v c
cc nh thc tin mun hn s dng, nh Ernest Gellner. N c u im hay nhc im
l n c th ng khng ch vai tr cp thng tin m c vai tr chun tc na. Cnh tranh
hon ho nh c l thuyt kinh t a thnh nh l mt loi l tng nh vy.
Phn thn trong Lch s
__________________________________________________



103

mi nm trc, vo u cc nm 1960, di nh hng ca
Open Society and its Enemies ca Karl Popper.
28



X hi M i li X hi ng

Cc m hnh da trn thi i vi thay i lch s. Ti
phn bit gia cch suy ngh truyn thng, b qua kh nng
thay i v chp nhn trng thi thnh hnh nh trng thi c
th duy nht (tc l, x hi hu c); mt cch t duy ph
phn, khai ph nhng kh nng v thay i mc y nht
(x hi m); v mt cch t duy gio iu, khng th chp
nhn s bt nh (x hi ng). Ti l l rng ba hnh thc t
chc x hi tng ng vi ba cch t duy (hu c/truyn
thng; m/ph phn; ng/gio iu). Ti cm thy cn phn
bit gia x hi hu c v x hi ng v c s khc bit hon
ton gia cch t duy truyn thng, pht l kh nng ca mt
la chn kh d, v cch t duy gio iu, tm cch loi b cc
la chn kh d bng v lc. X hi hu c, ging nh Vn
a ng, trong qu kh huyn thoi: Tnh trinh nguyn,
mt khi mt, khng th ly li c. V cc mc ch thc
tin, s la chn l gia x hi m v ng.
Chng cn ni, s tng ng gia cc cch t duy v c
cu x hi l khng hon ho. C x hi m v x hi ng
u b qun ci g ng khao kht m, theo nh ngha, ch
c th thy trong x hi kia. X hi ng ha hn s chc
chn v vnh cu ci b thiu trong x hi m, v x hi m

28
Istvn Rev cho rng quan tm ca ti vi cc loi l tng v cc tiu chun phn gii
tuyn ca ti l sai lm. Lch s l mt qu trnh, tnh phn thn l mt qu trnh, v ti tm
cch din gii lch s nh mt qu trnh phn thn. V sao ti phi c rt gn cc qu trnh v
mt quan nim thnh cc trng thi? l mt cu hi c c s. Mc ch ca ti l chng t
rng qu trnh lch s c th to ra cc trng thi khc nhau v mt nh tnh, nh nc, bng,
v hi nc khc nhau. Cc m hnh phi c xy dng nh nhng ci tr gip cho vic
hiu thc ti, khng nh biu din thc ti. Ni cch khc, chng phi khng c hiu qu
theo ngha en. Nhng, ti vn coi khi nim v x hi m mt cch nghim tc, c nh mt
s biu din thc ti ln nh mt mc tiu ng theo ui. iu ny gy cho ti nhng
kh khn to ln v quan nim m ti s thut li chi tit khi chng ta tip tc y v
Chng 5. Ti khng coi s phn bit gia cc s kin bun t v s kin lch s rt nghim
tc, v ti tin c gi s cng khng coi nh th.
GEORGE SOROS
___________________________________________________

104

ha hn quyn t do ci b t chi i vi c nhn trong x
hi ng. H qu l, hai nguyn l t chc x hi ng i lp
vi nhau. X hi m tha nhn kh nng c th sai ca chng
ta; x hi ng t chi n.
Khi ti thit lp khung kh quan nim ny, vo u cc
nm 1960,
29
ti khng dm khng nh tnh u vit ca x
hi m, v ti khng th chng minh n v n khng c
bng chng ng h: Ch ngha cng sn vn ln sn. Ti
khng nh rng bao hm mt s la chn tht (iu ny
ng), v ti kin quyt ng v pha x hi m. Ti tin vo
x hi m mnh n mc, khi c hi m ra, ti chuyn nim
tin chc ca mnh thnh hnh ng. Ti s tm tt cc hot
ng t thin ca ti v chng c lin quan.


Ti thit lp Open Society Fund (Qu X hi M) vo nm
1979. S mnh ca n, nh ti trnh by n lc , l gip
m cc x hi ng, gip lm cho x hi m c th ng
vng hn, v nui dng cch t duy ph phn. Sau mt
khi u cht yu Nam Phi, ti tp trung vo cc nc
di s cai tr cng sn - c bit t nc qu hng ti,
Hungary. Cng thc l n gin: Bt k hot ng hay s lin
hp no khng nm di s gim st hay iu khin ca cc
nh chc trch to ra cc la chn kh d khc v do lm
yu c quyn ca gio iu. Qu ca ti Hungary, thnh
lp nm 1985 nh mt lin doanh vi Vin Hn lm Khoa hc
Hungary, hot ng nh nh bo tr cho x hi dn s. N
khng ch h tr x hi dn s, m x hi dn s ng h
n; kt qu l, n c min khi nhiu h qu xu khng
ch m cc qu thng phi chu ng. Vic thin thng c
khuynh hng bin nhng ngi nhn thnh cc i tng t
thin; nhng ngi n ni vi qu ci m qu mun nghe,
v nu h nhn mt khon tr cp h tin hnh lm ci m h
mun lm u tin. Hungary, khng h c chuyn nh

29
Sao li hu nh nguyn vn trong Opening the Soviet System.
Phn thn trong Lch s
__________________________________________________



105

vy. Qu trao quyn cho x hi dn s lm ci m n mun
lm trong mi trng hp, v chng cn kim sot: X hi
dn s bo v qu bng bo ng cho chng ti khi tin qu
ca chng ti b dng sai. Ti nh mt dp khi chng ti c
cnh bo l hi ngi m, nhn mt khon tr cp cho loi
sch ni c, s dng sai tr cp. Ai c th kim c s
gim st tt hn m khng c n lc no t pha chng ti?
c khch l bi thnh cng ca qu Hungary, ti tr
thnh mt ngi lm t thin bt chp thi ph phn ca
ti vi vic t thin. Khi ch Soviet bt u sp , ti lao
vo trn. Ti nhn ra rng trong mt giai on cch mng
nhiu th tr thnh c th ci khng th hnh dung ni vo
nhng lc khc. Ti cm thy vi s gip ca m hnh
boom-bust ca mnh ti hiu tnh hnh tt hn hu ht nhng
ngi khc; ti c cam kt mnh cho x hi m; v ti
c cc cng c ti chnh ng h n. iu ny t ti vo
mt v th c mt khng hai, v ti khng tic sc. Ti
tng qui m ca cc qu ca ti ln mt trm ln - t 3 triu $
ln 300 triu mt nm trong khong vi nm.
Ch trong tin trnh sp ca h thng Soviet ti mi pht
hin ra mt sai st trong khung kh quan nim ca ti: N coi
x hi m v x hi ng nh cc la chn kh d. S phn
i c th thch hp trong thi gian Chin tranh Lnh, khi
hai nguyn l xy dng x hi ngc hon ton i u vi
nhau trong xung t ch t, nhng n khng hp vi cc iu
kin thnh hnh t khi Chin tranh Lnh chm dt.
Ti buc phi nhn ra rng s sp ca mt x hi ng
khng t ng dn ti s thit lp mt x hi m; ngc li,
n c th dn n s tan v ca quyn lc v s tan r ca x
hi. Mt nh nc yu c th l mt e do i vi x hi m
cng nhiu nh mt nh nc chuyn ch.
30

Ti khm ph ra mt iu khc: Ngi dn sng trong cc
x hi m khng thc tin vo x hi m nh mt l tng ph
qut. H c th sn lng bo v cc nh ch dn ch trong

30
Stephen Holmes, What Russia Teaches Us Now: How Weak States Threaten Freedom,
The American Prospect (July-August 1997): 30-39.
GEORGE SOROS
___________________________________________________

106
t nc ring ca h, nhng khng nht thit sn lng chu
hi sinh ln thit lp cc nh ch dn ch cc nc khc.
y l mt vin thuc ng phi nut. Khi ti lao vo lp cc
Qu X hi M ht nc ny sang nc khc, ti ngh rng
mnh i tin phong v nhng ngi khc s theo; khi ti ngoi
li, chng c ai sau mnh. y khng ch l mt s tht
vng m cng l mt thiu st trong khung kh quan nim
ca ti, thc vy l li ti t nht trong phn tch ca ti. Ti
buc phi cn thn xem xt li khi nim x hi m; khung
kh ti gii thiu y l kt qu ca s xem xt li .


Thay cho phn i ra x hi m v ng, nay ti hnh dung
x hi m vng t gia bp bnh, ni n b e do bi cc
nim tin gio iu thuc mi loi - mt s c th p t mt
x hi ng, s khc c th dn ti s tan r ca x hi. X
hi m tiu biu cho trng thi gn cn bng; cc la chn
khc bao gm khng ch bt cn bng tnh ca x hi ng m
c bt cn bng ng ca hn n v mt phng hng.
Ti thc c nhng thiu st nht nh trong cc x
hi m nhng ci c th dn n s v ca chng, nhng
ti cho rng s v s dn n hnh thnh mt x hi
ng. y l h qu ca s phn i m ti thit lp - rng
x hi m v x hi ng l nhng la chn kh d duy nht;
ci m mt x hi thiu th c th thy trong x hi khc. Ti
khng nhn ra rng hon cnh ca bt cn bng ng c
th duy tr mi mi, hoc, chnh xc hn l, mt x hi c th
ln vn g ca hn n (edge of chaos) m khng thc s
vt qua g hn n. y l mt s sut l lng v pha ti,
v ti bit lun im ca l thuyt cc h thng tin ho
rng cuc sng xut hin ti g ca hn n.
Qu o thc s m lch s theo khng th c vch r,
nhng chng ta c th th a ra nhng nt c bit no
vo khng gian m trong phm vi n xut hin. l ci
ti lm khi ti phn bit gia x hi m v x hi ng
di nh hng ca Karl Popper. Ngy nay, di nh sng
Phn thn trong Lch s
__________________________________________________



107

ca kinh nghim, ti cn xc nh li khng gian trong lch
s din ra v tha nhn thm mt loi: bt cn bng ng.
iu ny dn n s phn ba ging nh nc, bng, v hi
nc: x hi m (gn cn bng), x hi ng (bt cn bng
tnh), v hn n hoc cch mng (bt cn bng ng). Cho
nn, do chim vng gia bp bnh, x hi m b e do t hai
pha: bi bt cn bng ng cng nh bi bt cn bng tnh.
y l mt khung kh kh khc s phn i n thun gia
x hi m v x hi ng m ti bt u vi. S tng t
vi nc, bng, hi nc l thch hp, v x hi m l lng,
x hi ng l cng nhc, v cch mng l hn n.
Ba trng hp ny to thnh cc loi l tng hay nhng
ci ht l: strange attractors
*
li vay mn mt thut ng
khc t l thuyt hn n. Cc s kin mang mt c trng
khc nhau trong phm vi qu o ca chng. Nu chng ta
chng c th hc c g khc v lch s ngoi iu ny,
chng ta hc c ci g c gi tr. Cc th trng ti
chnh ng x theo mt cch gn cn bng v cch khc xa cn
bng, v cng ng th vi lch s ni chung. Th d, nhiu
th l c th trong cc tnh hung cch mng nhng ci khng
th hnh dung c trong thi gian bnh thng. Nhn ra cc
c hi khi chng ny sinh l nh cao ca chnh khch, cng
l cha kho cho thnh cng cc th trng ti chnh.
Ti may mn c mt s hiu bit sc so v s khc bit
gia hon cnh gn cn bng v xa cn bng, iu ny ti hc
c t cha ti. ng l mt t binh trong Chin tranh Th
gii I, v ng trn thot t mt tri giam Siberia trong
thi gian Cch mng Nga. ng tri qua nhng cuc phiu
lu l thng ci dy ng s khc bit gia hon cnh bnh
thng v cch mng. ng lm ti thch th vi nhng
chuyn ca ng khi ti cn l mt a tr. Khi ti ln mi
bn, vo nm 1944, ngi c chim Hungary v tin

*
Mt ci ht (attractor) l mt tp ng bt bin c mt ln cn sao cho qu o ca h thng
ng hc xut pht t mt im ln cn s tin vo attractor (bao gm cc trng thi cn
bng n nh, cc qu o tun hon n nh v cc xuyn bt bin n nh cha cc qu o
gn tun hon). Cc attractor l l cc tp ng bt bin ch gm cc qu o khng n nh,
thc ra, l cc qu o c bit.
GEORGE SOROS
___________________________________________________

108

hnh dit chng chng li nhng ngi Do Thi; ti c th
khng sng st nu khng phi do cha ti. ng nhn ra
y l mt tnh hung xa cn bng trong cc qui tc bnh
thng khng c p dng. ng dn xp khng ch cho
gia nh ng m cho nhiu ngi khc quanh ng - mang
nhn dng gi.
31
Hu ht chng ti sng st. ng thi, ti
thy ci g xy ra vi nhng ngi t chun b hn i ph
vi hon cnh c bit: H b tng vo cc tri lao ng, y
i Auschwitz, hoc b bn trn b sng Danube. y l kinh
nghim nh hng n s hnh thnh nhn cch ca i ti, l
do v sao ti coi khi nim x hi m nghim tc n vy.
Ti hc c rng cng cc qui tc khng p dng cho
mi thi k. Khng n gin l cc qui tc khc nhau p dng
trong hon cnh cch mng so vi trong thi k bnh thng;
chnh nt phn bit ca bt cn bng ng l cc qui tc cng
b thay i, v ci l quyt nh ng ti mt thi im c th
l sai thi im tip theo. Kh thy r y tm quan
trng ca khng nh ny, v cn kh hn i n quyt
nh ng ti thi im ng. c bit, cc nh ch quan liu
do bn cht l khng thch hp cho nhim v. l l do v
sao chng c khuynh hng v v sp nu bt cn bng
ng tr nn qu khc nghit v cc s kin tut khi tm
kim sot.
Ti thc su sc rng quan nim v lch s m ti trnh
by y mang nng tnh c nhn v phong cch ring. S
thc rng ti phi xt li s phn i v thay n bng s
phn ba phi cnh bo chng ta l s phn chia ny bp bnh
n th no. iu khng lm gim gi tr ca s thu hiu
m chng cung cp, nhng n nhc nh chng ta mt cch
mnh m rng cc phm tr ny do chng ta a ra ch
khng phi thy trong thc t.
iu ny lm ny sinh cu hi liu cc phm tr ti a ra,
c bit l khi nim x hi m, c bt k s tho ng no
cho hon cnh ngy nay hay khng. Ti khng nghi ng rng

31
Tivadar Soros, Maskerado: Dancing around Death in Nazi Hungarry (Edinburgh:
Cannongate Books, October 2000).
Phn thn trong Lch s
__________________________________________________



109
s phn bit gia x hi m v x hi ng l tho ng vi
Chin tranh Lnh; thc vy, n cho s thu hiu ci g ang
lm nguy tt hn s phn bit gia ch ngha t bn v ch
ngha cng sn. Ti cng bit l khi nim x hi m l c
ngha i vi ring ti. Cu hi mu cht l liu n c, hoc
phi c, mt ngha cho x hi ni chung hay khng. Mc
ch ca cun sch ny chng t rng n phi c.


Cc Tuyn Ranh gii

By gi hy ti quay li cu hi m ti nu ra trc y:
Ci g tch hon cnh gn cn bng khi xa cn bng? Khi
no mt chui boom-bust hay qu trnh bt cn bng khc no
ph hu hon cnh gn cn bng ca mt x hi m?
Chng ta thy rng tng tc hai chiu gia t duy v thc
ti c th d dng dn n thi qu, ci c th y tnh hnh
theo hng hoc cng nhc hoc hn n. cho x hi m
thnh hnh, phi c ci neo no ngn cn t duy ca nhng
ngi tham gia b ko qu xa khi thc ti. Ci neo l g?
tr li cu hi, u tin chng ta phi phn bit gia cc
k vng v gi tr. Rt cuc, cc quyt nh da khng ch trn
cm nhn ca ngi ta v thc ti m cng c trn cc gi tr
m h s dng. Trong trng hp cc k vng, ci neo l d
nhn din: l bn thn thc ti. Chng no ngi ta nhn
ra rng c s khc bit gia t duy v thc ti, cc s thc
cho mt tiu chun theo hiu lc ca cc k vng ca
ngi dn c th c phn x. Tnh phn thn c th lm
cho cc s kin l khng th tin on c, nhng mt khi
qua i chng tr thnh xc nh mt cch duy nht, nh th
chng c th c dng quyt nh liu tin on ca
chng ta ng hay khng. Nh chng ta thy, s tin
on c th nh hng n kt qu, nh th kt qu khng l
mt tiu chun hon ton c lp cho nh gi tnh hiu lc
ca cc l thuyt m k vng da vo. l v sao s hiu bit
ca chng ta l c th sai v chng ta ch c th ni v hon
GEORGE SOROS
___________________________________________________

110
cnh gn cn bng. Tuy nhin, thc ti to thnh mt tiu
chun hu ch.
Trong hon cnh bt cn bng tnh, t duy v thc ti l
cch xa nhau v khng biu l xu hng tin gn nhau hn.
Trong mt x hi hu c, n gin khng c s phn bit
gia t duy v thc ti: Thn thnh cai tr th gii. Trong mt
x hi ng, cc k vng c neo vo gio iu, ch khng
vo thc ti, v cc k vng i trch khi gio iu chnh
thng thm ch khng th c by t. C mt khong cch
gn sn gia phin bn chnh thng v thc ti v s thc; xo
b n mang li s an i v cng v mt ngha gii phng.
Trong hon cnh bt cn bng ng, chng ta c tnh trng
ngc li: Tnh hnh thay i qu nhanh i vi s hiu bit
ca ngi dn, gy ra mt s cch bit ln gia t duy v
thc ti. S din gii cc s kin khng theo kp nhp din
bin ca cc s kin; ngi dn mt phng hng v cc s
kit tut khi tm kim sot. V vy thc ti khng cn th
ng vai ci neo cho cc k vng. l ci din ra trong
thi gian tan r ca h thng Soviet. Nh ti s tranh lun, x
hi ring ca chng ta c th cng trn b ca bt cn bng
ng, mt phn v nhp thay i nhanh v mt phn v s
thiu st ca cc gi tr c chia s.


Vn v Gi tr

Cc gi tr no l cn duy tr hon cnh gn cn bng ca
x hi m? Ti y ti trn mnh t khng chc chn hn
trng hp cc k vng, v c l do ch quan v khch quan,
v l l ca ti mang tnh thm d hn. Ti nhc ti cn
nhc ch quan: Ti c o to nh mt nh kinh t v ti
lun lun vt ln hnh dung ra cc gi tr th trng lin h
th no vi cc gi tr hng dn cc quyt nh trong cc lnh
vc tn ti khc x hi, chnh tr, c nhn. Thng ti b
lm cho ri tr thc s, v ti ng rng ti khng n c v
kha cnh ny. X hi Phng Ty ng thi dng nh ln
Phn thn trong Lch s
__________________________________________________



111
ln v cc gi tr ni chung v v quan h gia cc gi tr th
trng v gi tr x hi ni ring. Nh th kh khn ch quan
ho vo kh khn khch quan. Hy ti pht biu vn
nh ti hiu, u tin mc l thuyt ri n mc thc tin.
mc l thuyt, nhn thc c mt tiu chun khch quan -
l, thc ti - theo n c th c phn x. Nh chng ta
thy, tiu chun l khng hon ton c lp, nhng c lp
gi l khch quan: Khng ngi tham gia no v th
p dt ch ca mnh ln din tin ca cc s kin. Ngc li,
cc gi tr khng th c nh gi bng bt k tiu chun
khch quan no v chng khng c gi thit l tng ng
vi thc ti: Cc tiu chun dng nh gi cc th c c
nhn hay nhm chp nhn chng la ra. Ni cch khc, cc
gi tr c hiu lc v chng ta tin vo chng. iu ny lm cho
chng phn thn hn k vng. Khng phi tt c cc k vng
u c th t hp l ho v chng lin h n thc ti, v cc
s thc khi chng tin trin - p t mt rng buc thp ln
tnh hp l ca cc k vng. Nhng cc gi tr li khng b
rng buc bi thc ti. So snh vi cc nim nhn thc,
chng c th thay i trn mt di rng hn nhiu. Chng
thm ch khng cn nht qun, chng no ngi dn c th t
thuyt phc mnh v tnh hp l ca chng ti thi im
chng tc ng ln h. Chng thm ch khng cn lin h n
th gii ny. Nhiu tn gio qui cho th gii khc tm quan
trng ln hn th gii ny. iu ny gy kh khn n vy
cho bt c tho lun no v gi tr. L thuyt kinh t rt
kho coi chng l cho trc. Vi s gip ca cng c
phng php lun , l thuyt kinh t thit lp khi nim cn
bng. Mc d ti hay ph phn khi nim ny, n khng th
thiu c cho phn tch ca ti. Ti ch c th ch ra rng
hon cnh xa cn bng c th ny sinh ra sao trong cc th
trng ti chnh ch v khi nim cn bng (m t thc ti
c th lch i) c pht trin k. Khng c khi nim
tng t no l sn c cho khu vc phi th trng ca x hi.
Ti nh ngha cn bng nh s tng ng gia k
vng v kt qu. Lm sao ti c th p dng nh ngha
GEORGE SOROS
___________________________________________________

112
cho cc gi tr c cho l gn x hi li vi nhau? Ti s th
thit lp mt nim tin vo x hi m nh mt iu kin cn
cho s tn ti ca mt x hi m, nhng s khng phi l
mt l l d: X hi m l mt khi nim kh nm bt; cn
kh hn coi n nh mt l tng. X hi m da trn s
tha nhn tnh c th sai ca chng ta. S hon ho ln trnh
chng ta; v th chng ta phi bng lng vi ci tt th nh;
mt x hi khng hon ho t ng cho s ci thin. c
l mt l tng c th kch thch tr tng tng ca dn
chng?
Chc chn n kch thch ti. Nhng nu ti l ngi duy
nht, ti chng hn mt k cung tn. Cun sch ny l mt
n lc thuyt phc nhng ngi khc t nim tin vo x
hi m nh mt hnh thc ng mong mi ca t chc x hi.


mc thc tin, x hi ng thi dng nh b mt thiu
st gay gt v cc gi tr x hi c chia s. Cc gi tr
khng tn ti trong chn khng; chng l phn thn. Chng
c nho nn, nhng khng c quyt nh - bi kinh
nghim. Cc gi tr c chia s l kt qu ca cc k vng
c chia s. Ngi ta than vn v s sa st gi tr x hi
c chia s sut qu trnh lch s, nhng c mt nhn t hot
ng, nhn t lm cho hin ti khc cc thi k khc: s lan
rng ca cc gi tr th trng cho t li a v cao hn li ch
chung. Khng ch s theo ui t li c ng nht vi li
ch chung nh vo bn tay v hnh; s theo ui li ch chung
b ln n l ngun gc ca tham nhng, xung t, v phi hiu
qu thuc mi loi v khng phi khng c bin minh. Vi
o c suy i, cc gi tr th trng xm nhp vo cc
lnh vc x hi m trc y c cc cn nhc phi th trng
ch ng. Cc lnh vc cho n nay ngoi gii hn ny bao
gm cc quan h c nhn, chnh tr, v ngh nghip nh lut
v y khoa. Th nht, cc mi quan h lu di b thay bng cc
giao dch ring. Ca hng tp ho ni ch v khch hng c
quan h quen bit - nhng ch cho siu th v gn y
Phn thn trong Lch s
__________________________________________________



113
hn cho Internet. Th hai, cc nn kinh t quc gia c thay
bng mt nn kinh t quc t, nhng cng ng quc t,
mc n tn ti, li chia s t gi tr x hi.


X hi Giao dch

Thay mi quan h bng giao dch l mt qu trnh lch s
ang din ra, qu trnh s chng bao gi t ti kt thc logic
ca n, nhng tin trin nhiu - xa hn nhiu so vi u
cc nm 1960, khi ti n t nc ny v quan st thy n
ln u tin. Ti n t nc Anh v b n tng bi s
khc bit: Quan h Hoa K d hn nhiu thit lp v t
b. Xu hng thm ch cn tin xa hn na k t . Vn c
kt hn v gia nh, nhng, th d, trong hot ng ngn hng
u t, cc giao dch hu nh thay th hon ton mi quan
h. iu ny cung cp mt th d r rng v nhng s thay
i xy ra trong nhiu lnh vc hot ng khc.
Khi ti bt u lm vic Thnh ph London trong cc
nm 1950, hu nh khng th tin hnh bt k vic kinh
doanh no m khng c mt mi quan h trc. Vn
khng phi l, bn bit ci g m l bn bit nhng ai. l l
do chnh ti ri London: v ti khng c nhiu quan h
, cc c hi ca ti tt hn nhiu New York. Trong
mt thi gian ngn, ti thit lp cc mi tip xc bun bn
u n vi cc hng hng u mc d ti lm vic mt
hng mi gii tng i khng ni ting; ti khng th lm
iu London. Nhng ngay c New York vic bao tiu
(pht hnh) chng khon vn hon ton c ch ng bi cc
mi quan h: Cc hng tham gia vo cc t hp trong mt
lnh gp nht no , v l mt s kin ln khi mt hng
vt ln hoc i xung qu mt gii hn. Tt c iu ny
thay i. Mi giao dch hin nay ng ring mt mnh, v cc
nh ngn hng u t cnh tranh v mi doanh v.
S khc bit gia giao dch v quan h c l thuyt tr
chi phn tch k dng th nan gii ca phm nhn: Hai k
GEORGE SOROS
___________________________________________________

114

nghi can cng la o b bt v b thm vn. Nu mt nghi
can cung cp bng chng chng li nghi can khc c ta c th
hng mt n c gim, nhng k tng phm b kt ti chc
hn. S tt hn cho h cng nhau nu h vn trung thnh vi
nhau, nhng tch ri th mi ngi c th kim li lm hi
cho k khc. Phn tch cho thy trong trng hp giao dch
ring c th c l phn bi song trong mi quan h lu di
c li trung thnh. C th coi iu ny nh mt minh ho
v hnh vi hp tc c th pht trin ra sao vi thi gian, song
n cng c th dng chng t hp tc v lng trung thnh
c th b s thay mi quan h bng giao dch lm xi mn ra
sao.
32
Ton cu ho tc ng theo cng chiu, lm tng phm
vi ca cc giao dch v gim s ph thuc vo mi quan h.
Tt c iu ny lin quan n thiu st ca cc gi tr c
chia s trong x hi ng thi. Ta c xu hng coi cc gi tr
x hi hay o c l nghim nhin. Chng ta dn chiu n
n nh ni ti hay cn bn, ng rng tnh hiu lc ca
n theo cch no l c lp vi tnh hung thnh hnh.
Chng g c th xa s tht hn th. Nu c th coi cc gi tr
x hi nh c cho trc - nh l thuyt kinh t lm vi cc
gi tr th trng - chng ta s chng c kh khn g xc lp
ci g tin ti trng thi cn bng. Nhng khng phi vy.
Cc gi tr x hi l phn thn. Chng chu nh hng ca cc
iu kin x hi v, n lt n, chng ng vai lm cho cc
iu kin x hi l ci chng l. Ngi dn c th tin rng
Cha truyn xung Mi iu rn v, tin nh vy, c th lm
cho x hi cng bng v n nh hn. Ngc li, thiu cc
rng buc o c c th gy ra bt cng v bt n nh.
Mt x hi giao dch lm xi mn cc gi tr x hi v lm
lng cc rng buc o c. Cc gi tr x hi by t s quan
tm n nhng ngi khc. Chng ng l c nhn thuc v
mt cng ng - gia nh, b lc, quc gia, hay nhn loi m

32
Robert Axelrod, The Complexity of Cooperation: Agent-Based Models of Competition and
Collaboration (Princeton: Princeton Studies in Complexity, Princeton University Press,
1997) v The Evolution of Cooperation (New York: basic Books, 1984); Anatol Rapoport
and Albert M. Chammah, with Carol J. Orwant, Prisoners Dilemma: A Study in Conflict and
Cooperation (Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press, 1965).
Phn thn trong Lch s
__________________________________________________



115
li ch chung c a v cao hn t li c nhn. Th nhng mt
nn kinh t ton cu l bt c th g ch khng phi l mt
cng ng. N gm c nhng ngi c truyn thng khc
nhau m vi h hu ht nhng ngi khc i din cho cng
ng khc khng phi cng ng m h thuc v. Trong mt
mi trng cnh tranh khc lit, kh quan tm n ngi
khc; n mc quan tm ti c nhn loi l yu cu ci khng
th. Tnh hnh b tn iu thnh hnh ca thuyt th trng
chnh thng lm nghim trng thm. N kin nh rng li ch
cng c phng s tt nht bng mi ngi theo ui t
li ring. iu ny ban phc lnh o c cho s theo ui t
li. Nhng ngi chp nhn tn iu c xu hng vt tri v
h khng vng vu bi nhng n o o c trong cuc xu
x ln nhau - v thnh cng nh vy c th l t tng cng.
Chng ta khng c cng iu. Cc rng buc ngoi do
cng ng p t c th b s pht trin ca nn kinh t giao
dch, ton cu lm xi mn, v theo ui t li c th c
bin minh o c, nhng nht thit cn mt s rng buc ni
ti. Ngay c nu ngi ta bin thnh cc nh cnh tranh
chuyn tm, h khng c sinh ra nh th. S bin i
mi xy ra kh gn y, v vn cha hon tt. Mc d chng
ta n gn mt x hi giao dch hn bt k thi k no trong
lch s, mt x hi thun giao dch chng bao gi c th tn
ti. Ngi ta dng nh c mt nhu cu bm sinh v gi tr x
hi. Vi t cch l loi hu tnh, h khng th trnh bit bn
cht ph du ring ca h, s cht ca h. H c xu hng vi
ti cc gi tr tri ra ngoi bn ng hn hp ca h. Ngay c
khi h theo ui t li ca mnh, h dng nh c nhu cu
bin minh hnh vi ca h bng quan tm n cc nguyn l
vt qu bn thn h. Nh Henri Bergson ch ra, tnh o
c c th c hai ngun: s thuc v b lc v thn phn con
ngi ph qut. Chnh ci sau l ci m x hi m phi neo
vo. Ti s th pht trin l l ny chng tip theo.


CHNG 5

X hi M nh mt L tng









u lun im ca ti, rng chng ta chu mt thiu st
v cc gi tr x hi c chia s, l ng, th thch
thc ln nht ca thi i chng ta l i xc lp mt
tp cc gi tr cn bn p dng cho mt x hi ton cu, ch
yu mang tnh giao dch. Ti mun bn n thch thc . Ti
xut khi nim x hi m nh mt l tng m x hi ton
cu ca chng ta nn khao kht. Lun im ca ti l chnh v
li ch ca cc x hi m gip nui dng s pht trin ca
cc x hi m trn khp th gii v thit lp cc nh ch
quc t ph hp vi mt x hi m ton cu. Ti mun nhn
c s ng h cho tng ny c kh nng chuyn n
thnh hin thc.
N
iu ny nghe nh mt n lc khng tng. Ngi dn
thm ch cn cha bit khi nim v x hi m; h cn rt xa
vic coi n nh mt mc tiu ng phn u. Th m n
khng l khng tng nh n c v. Phi nh rng x hi m
l mt l tng rt c bit. N da vo s tha nhn rng s
hiu bit ca chng ta l khng hon ho v rng mt x hi
hon ho l ngoi tm vi ca chng ta; chng ta phi t tho
mn vi ci tt th nh: mt x hi khng hon ho t m ra
cho, v phn u v, s ci thin. Dng nh ngha ny, Hoa
K, Lin minh Chu u, v nhiu phn ca th gii n rt
gn c t cch nh cc x hi m. Chng chc chn
X hi M nh mt L tng
__________________________________________________



117
c cho l khng hon ho. Ci cn thiu l mt s hiu bit
v khi nim x hi m v s chp nhn n nh mt l tng.
Nhng ngay c trong kha cnh ny, thc ti khng qu xa
mc tiu mong i. Dn ch i din l mt thnh phn ct
yu ca x hi m. Mt nn kinh t th trng cng vy. Dn
ch i din thnh hnh nhiu nc, v thc y dn ch
cc phn khc ca th gii tr thnh mt mc tiu chnh
sch c tha nhn cho cc nn dn ch Phng Ty. Nn
kinh t th trng thnh ra ton cu tht s trong mi nm
va qua, v cc nguyn l ca n c xc tin vi nhit
huyt s mnh thc s.
Th th sai ci g? Ti tin s thc y cc nguyn l th
trng i qu xa v tr thnh qu phin din. Nhng ngi
theo thuyt th trng chnh thng tin rng li ch chung c
phc v tt nht bng theo ui t li khng b hn ch. Lng
tin ny l sai, th nhng n tr nn rt c nh hng. N cn
ng ca mt x hi m ton cu. Chng ta rt gn mc
tiu , nhng chng ta khng th ti tr phi chng ta
nhn ra cc sai lm ca thuyt th trng chnh thng v sa
s vnh lch gia t chc kinh t v chnh tr ca th gii.
Phi nhn mnh l thuyt th trng chnh thng khng tri
hon ton vi x hi m nh cch ch ngha cng sn v ch
ngha tn gio chnh thng tri ngc. N n thun l mt s
mo m. Friedrich Hayek, m cc tng ca ng b th
tc ho bi nhng ngi theo thuyt th trng chnh thng
ngy nay, l mt ngi tin vng chc vo x hi m. C
ng v Karl Popper mun bo v quyn t do c nhn
chng li mi e do bt ngun t cc tn iu tp th ch
ngha nh ch ngha cng sn v ch ngha x hi quc gia
(quc x); h ch khc nhau v cc cng c thc hin
chng. Popper xng dng k thut x hi tng phn -
pieacemeal social engineering; Hayek t nim tin ca mnh
vo c ch th trng v ng bn tm n cc h qu khng
ch , c hi ca kim sot nh nc. Mi bn tm ca ng
b cc t theo ng trng phi Chicago y n thi
qu. Theo ui t li c thng tin thnh mt nguyn l ph
GEORGE SOROS
___________________________________________________

118
qut thm su vo mi kha cnh ca tn ti: khng ch l s
la chn c nhn nh c by t cc th trng m c la
chn x hi nh c biu l trong chnh tr. N thm ch cn
m rng tm vi n lut hp ng; n chi phi khng ch
hnh vi c nhn m c ng x ca cc quc gia, khng nhc
n gen ch k. C mt s ging nhau kh chu gia thuyt th
trng chnh thng v ch ngha cng sn: C hai c nn tng
trong khoa hc x hi - kinh t hc th trng mt trng
hp, ch ngha Marx (mt l thuyt ton din hn v cc h
thng x hi, bao gm kinh t hc) trng hp kia.
Ti coi thuyt th trng chnh thng nh mt mi e do
ln hn cho x hi m ngy nay so vi ch ngha cng sn.
Ch ngha cng sn v thm ch ch ngha x hi b mt tn
nhim, nhng thuyt th trng chnh thng ang ln. Nu c
bt k gi tr c chia s no ngy nay trn th gii, chng
da trn nim tin rng ngi dn phi c theo ui t li
ca h v rng c v ch ln phn tc dng mong i chng
c thc y bng li ch chung. Tt nhin, khng c s
thng nht chung no v im ny, nhng chc chn ph bin
hn nim tin vo x hi m. Hn na, thuyt th trng chnh
thng nhn c s tng cng mnh m t cc kt qu tch
cc m cc chnh sch theo hng th trng mang li, c
bit gia nhng ngi hng li ca cc chnh sch . n
mc chnh tr b tin nh hng, nhng ngi ny c khuynh
hng tr nn c nh hng nht.
Nh th nhim v ca ti chng ny gm hai phn:
chng minh cc sai lm ca thuyt th trng chnh thng, v
thit lp cc nguyn l ca x hi m. Phn u tng i d.
Ti ch ra ri rng cc th trng ti chnh khng nht thit
c khuynh hng tin ti cn bng. Tt c ci ti cn ch ra
by gi l cc gi tr x hi khng tm thy cch biu hin
trong cc th trng. Cc th trng phn nh s phn b hin
hnh ca cc ti sn; chng khng c thit k ti phn
phi cc ti sn theo cc nguyn l v cng bng x hi.
Suy ra rng cng bng x hi nm ngoi kh nng ca nn
kinh t th trng. L thuyt kinh t hc coi phn b ca ci
X hi M nh mt L tng
__________________________________________________



119
c cho trc, v n cho rng bt k chnh sch no cho
php nhng ngi thng cuc n b nhng ngi thua m
vn cn li ci g s lm tng phc li. N lm thinh v
vn liu nhng ngi thng phi n b nhng ngi thua
hay khng, v l vn v cc gi tr x hi v kinh t hc
tm cch gi mnh c lp vi gi tr. Da trn l l ny nhng
ngi theo thuyt th trng chnh thng lp lun rng chnh
sch hay nht l cho cc th trng t do hot ng.
Nu gi nh th trng to ra cn bng chung, v vn
cng bng x hi c quan tm, th h s c mt l l hp l;
nhng c hai iu kin u khng tho mn. iu ny a ra
nhu cu v loi can thip chnh tr no trong nn kinh t
duy tr n nh v gim bt bnh ng. Phin ni cc quyt
nh chnh tr cn khng hon ho hn cc th trng. y l
mt l l mnh m ng h th trng t do, hng mnh nht
trong kho v kh ca cc nh theo thuyt th trng chnh
thng; song h thin v lm dng n. Khng suy ra t s thc
l can thip chnh tr gy tr ngi cho tnh hiu qu ca th
trng, rng phi chnh tr khng xen vo nn kinh t.
Chnh tr c th khng hiu qu v tham nhng, song chng ta
khng th lm m khng c n. L l theo thuyt th trng
chnh thng c th p dng cho mt th gii hon ho, song
khng th p dng cho ci tt th nh. X hi m l s truy
tm ci tt th nh.
Phn nhim v th hai ca ti kh hn. X hi m khng l
mt khi nim d, v ti khng lm vic rt tt lm sng
t n. Ngc li, ti dng nh lm ht sc gy ri tr
bn c. Ti dng thut ng t nht ba cch khc nhau. Ti
t ngang x hi m vi hon cnh gn cn bng; ti cng
ni rng x hi m l mt loi (type) l tng c th gn ng
nhng khng th t c trong thc t. Dng nh c mu
thun gia hai khng nh ny, v gn cn bng c th t
c trong thc t. By gi ti mun t x hi m nh mt
mc tiu ng phn u. Tt c cc th ny tht rm ri. X
hi m l mt l tng, hay l mt m t hon cnh thc t?
C th hn, cc nn dn ch Phng Ty l cc x hi m hay
GEORGE SOROS
___________________________________________________

120
khng? Cu tr li l, x hi m c l mt l tng v mt s
m t thc ti, v x hi m l mt l tng rt l: mt x hi
bt hon ho t coi mnh l m cho s ci thin. V cc nn
dn ch Ty Phng c t cch nhiu tr mt kha cnh:
Chng khng tha nhn x hi m nh mt mc tiu mong
mi. Ngay c nu h chp nhn n t nc ring ca h,
h khng tha nhn n nh mt nguyn l ph qut nn c
dng nh mt mc tiu ca chnh sch quc gia. Quan h
quc t vn da vo nguyn l ch quyn quc gia. X hi m
c th dng nh mt nguyn l ph qut? N c th ho gii
vi nguyn tc ch quyn quc gia? l vn mu cht
i mt vi chng ta ngy nay.
Chng ta s cp n vn phn hai ca cun sch
ny, ni ti bn v thi im hin ti trong lch s. chng
ny ti mun kho st vi kh khn quan nim m x hi m
nh mt nguyn l ph qut gp phi. Chng ny mang tnh
cht thm d trit hc nhm chun b cho mt s xem xt thc
tin hn ca vn mu cht m ti nhn din ra.


Tnh Tho ng ca cc T tng Ph qut

X hi m bnh vc t do, dn ch, php tr, nhn quyn,
cng bng x hi, v trch nhim x hi nh mt t tng ph
qut. Mt trong nhng tr ngi cho vic chp nhn x hi m
nh mt mc tiu chung l s t chi kh ph bin ca cc t
tng ph qut. Ti pht hin ra iu ny sau khi ti thit
lp mng li cc qu ti tr ca mnh v, ni thng, n lm
ti bt ng. Trong thit lp mng li cc qu ca ti, ti
chng kh khn tm nhng ngi c cc nguyn l v x
hi m gy cm hng, cho d h khng dng cng thut ng.
Ti khng cn gii thch ti hiu x hi m l g: Mi ngi
u hiu n ngc li vi x hi ng trong h sng.
Thi ca Phng Ty gy bi ri hn. u tin ti ngh
ngi dn Phng Ty ch chm nhn ra c hi lch s; cui
cng ti buc phi i n kt lun rng h thnh thc khng
X hi M nh mt L tng
__________________________________________________



121
quan tm v x hi m nh mt t tng ph qut c
nhiu n lc nhm gip cc nc nguyn cng sn tin hnh
chuyn i. Ti b tuyn truyn ca Chin tranh Lnh la
di. Tt c li ni v t do v dn ch ch l: tuyn truyn.
Sau sp ca h thng Soviet, s hp dn ca x hi m
nh mt l tng bt u lu m ngay c cc nc nguyn
cng sn. Ngi dn b cun vo cuc vt ln sng st, v
nhng ngi tip tc bn tm vi li ch chung, trong khi
nhng ngi khc hi ra tin, phi t hi liu mnh c bm
vo cc gi tr ca mt thi i qua v thng h l vy.
Ngi dn tr nn ng cc t tng ph qut. Ch ngha cng
sn l mt t tng ph qut v hy xem n dn ti u!
iu ny buc ti phi xem xt li cn thn khi nim x
hi m. Ti phi tha nhn l s c cm vi cc t tng ph
qut l c c s. Chng c th rt nguy him, c bit nu
chng t n kt lun logic ca chng. Chnh l mt nt ca
tnh c th sai ca chng ta m cc t tng c th c cuc
sng ring ca chng, i qu xa thc ti v vn c nh hng
ln n. Theo cng cch, chng ta khng th hot ng m
khng c cc t tng ph qut. (Theo ui t li cng l mt
tng ph qut cho d n khng c tha nhn l vy).
Th gii trong chng ta sng ng l qu phc tp c
bt k ngha g m khng c cc nguyn l hng dn no
. Dng t duy ny dn ti n khi nim v tnh c th
sai nh mt tng ph qut, v ti th t c s cho khi
nim x hi m trn s tha nhn tnh c th sai ca chng ta.


Thi Khai sng

y ti gp phi nhng kh khn khng th vt qua. S
tha nhn tnh c th sai ca chng ta l ci lm cho x hi
m; nhng, t n, l khng gi x hi li vi nhau. Cn
n ci g khc - mt t quan tm n ngi khc, mt t
gi tr c chia s. Cc gi tr ny phi c truyn bi s
tha nhn tnh c th sai ca chng ta, nhng khng th dn
GEORGE SOROS
___________________________________________________

122
ra t n bng logic. Gi nh nu iu l c th, th chnh
tng v tnh c th sai ca chng ta b nghi ng. iu ny c
ngha l x hi m nh mt tng ph qut khng th c
nh ngha mt cch thch hp; mi x hi phi hnh thnh
nh ngha ring ca mnh, nhng nh ngha phi bao hm
cc nguyn l chung no , bao gm tnh c th sai v quan
tm n nhng ngi khc.
Karl Popper phn i nh ngha cc khi nim t tri sang
phi: X hi m l, v tip theo l nh ngha. ng thch lm
t phi sang tri: M t ci g , ri gn cho n mt ci nhn.
iu ny lm cho vn ng lng cng vi cc ch ngha.
Tuy nhin, ti c theo li khuyn ca Popper. Trong mng
li qu ca ti, chng ti khng bao gi nh ngha x hi
m. Gi nh chng ti lm th, t chc tr nn cng nhc
hn; th m, tnh uyn chuyn l du phm cht ca chng
ti. Nhng nu ti mun khi nim x hi m c chp nhn
ni chung, ti phi ni n l g. Ti phi chng t lm sao s
tha nhn tnh c th sai ca chng ta dn n cc nguyn l
ca x hi m.
Nh ti c gng c bit ch ra, y s khng l mt
nhim v d. Mi l l trit hc c th nu ra khng ngt cc
vn mi. Nu ti th xut pht t hai bn tay trng, ti
khng th tin trin c my v ti s b mc vo li do
mnh dt nn. Ti ni t kinh nghim: n xy ra vi ti.
Mt ln ti b ra ba nm ca i mnh th trnh by trit l
ca ti, v ti kt thc im ti bt u.
May thay, ti khng phi xut pht t v tr khng. Cc trit
gia ca Thi Khai sng, Kant ng u trong s h, th
suy din ra ngha v c hiu lc ph qut t ting gi ca l
tr. Thnh cng khng hon ho ca h chng thc cho nh
v tnh c th sai v to c s cho l l ca ti.
Thi Khai sng to thnh mt bc tin khng l khi cc
nguyn l o c v chnh tr thnh hnh trc . Cho
n lc , uy quyn o c v chnh tr c dn ra t cc
ngun bn ngoi, c thn thnh ln th tc. cho l tr quyt
nh ci g tht v gi, ci g ng v sai, l mt s i mi
X hi M nh mt L tng
__________________________________________________



123
gh gm. N nh du khi u ca thi hin i. Bt lun
chng ta nhn ra n hay khng, Thi Khai sng to nn
mng cho cc t tng ca chng ta v chnh tr v kinh t
hc, qu thc, cho ton b quan im ca chng ta v th
gii. Cc trit gia Thi Khai sng khng cn c c na
c nhn ti thy h kh c - nhng cc tng ca h n
su vo cch suy ngh ca chng ta. L tr (rule of reason),
tng v kh c x hi nh c s ca x hi v quc gia, uy
quyn ti cao ca khoa hc, tnh anh em ph qut ca nhn
loi y l mt s trong cc ch chnh ca h. Cc gi tr
chnh tr, x hi, v o c ca Thi Khai sng c pht
biu mt cch ng khm phc Tuyn ngn c lp, v ti
liu tip tc l ngun cm hng cho nhn dn ton th gii.
Thi Khai sng khng ny sinh t khng u: N c
ngun gc t trit hc Hi Lp v mc t hn t o
Thin cha, ci n lt n li c xy dng trn truyn
thng thuyt mt thn ca Kinh Cu c. ng lu l tt c
cc tng ny c din t di dng ph qut, vi
ngoi l ca Cu c, trong rt nhiu lch s b lc c
ho trn vi thuyt mt thn. Thay cho chp nhn truyn
thng nh uy quyn ti thng, Thi Khai sng t truyn
thng di s thm tra ph phn. Cc quan h truyn thng c
th c thay bng cc quan h hp ng: t c kh c
x hi. Kt qu tht phn khi. Nng lc sng to ca tr tu
con ngi c gii phng. Khng ngc nhin l cch tip
cn mi c y n thi qu! Trong Cch mng Php, uy
quyn truyn thng b lt v l tr c xc du thnh cng
nhn nh quan to ti thng. L tr t ra khng kham ni
nhim v, v s hng hi ca 1789 sa o thnh khng b
ca 1793. Nhng cc gio l c bn ca Thi Khai sng khng
b bc b; ngc li, cc i qun ca Napoleon mang cc
t tng ca thi hin i n phn cn li ca Chu u.
Thnh tu ca thi hin i vt mi so snh. Phng php
khoa hc to ra nhng pht minh ng kinh ngc, v cng
ngh cho php chuyn chng sang dng trong sn xut.
Loi ngi tr nn ch ng t nhin. Cc doanh nghip kinh
GEORGE SOROS
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124
t nm li th c hi, cc th trng dng khp cung v
cu, v c sn xut v mc sng tng ln n cc nh cao
khng th hnh dung ni trong bt k thi i trc no.
Bt chp cc thnh tu y n tng ny, l tr khng th
xng vi cc k vng c gn cho n, c bit trong v i
chnh tr v x hi. Khong cch gia nh v kt qu khng
c khp li; qu thc, nh cng trit , th kt qu cng
tht vng. iu ny, theo ti, p dng c cho ch ngha cng
sn ln thuyt th trng chnh thng, c hai u t cho l c
c s khoa hc. Ti mun nu bt mt trng hp c bit ca
cc hu qu khng ch v n c bit xc ng cho tnh hnh
hin ti. Khi cc t tng chnh tr ban u ca Thi Khai
sng c chuyn sang thc tin, chng hp cho vic cng c
t tng v nh nc quc gia. Trong n lc thit lp s cai
tr ca l tr (l tr: rule of reason), ngi dn ni ln chng cc
nh cai tr ca h, v quyn lc m h chim c l quyn
lc v ch quyn. l cch m nh nc quc gia, trong
quyn ti cao thuc v nhn dn, sinh ra. Bt k u im
ca n l g, n khc xa cm hng ph qut lun ca n.
Trong vn ho, s h b quyn uy truyn thng gy ra s
dy men tr tu to ra ngh thut v vn hc kit xut, nhng
sau mt giai on di th nghim hp dn, vo na sau ca
th k hai mi mi quyn uy u b thch thc v phn ln
cm hng dng nh b tiu tn. Di kh nng tr nn qu
rng to phng php rn luyn cn thit cho sng to
ngh thut. Mt s ngh s v nh vn tm cch thit lp ngn
ng ring ca h, nhng mt bng chung dng nh tan r.
Tnh trng kh chu cng loi dng nh tc ng n x
hi ni chung. Cc trit gia Thi Khai sng, Kant ng u
trong s h, tm cch thit lp cc nguyn l c hiu lc
ph qut v o c da trn cc thuc tnh ph qut ca l
tr. Nhim v m Kant t cho mnh l chng t rng l tr to
mt c s tt hn cho o c so vi uy quyn truyn thng,
bn ngoi. Nhng trong x hi giao dch hin i ca chng
ta, bt c mt th o c no cng u b a ra suy xt.
Ngi ta ln la cho mt nn o c no a ng
X hi M nh mt L tng
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125
dn li; thc vy, so vi qu kh, s chn ch trong vic la
chn o c ngy cng tr nn nghim trng. Nhng cc
nguyn l v qui tc c th cung cp s ch dn b nghi
ng. V sao phi bn tm v s tht khi mt ngh khng
cn phi ng c kt qu? V sao phi trung thc khi thnh
cng, ch khng phi tnh chn tht hay c hnh l ci mang
li s knh trng cho con ngi? Mc d cc gi tr x hi v
qui tc o c b nghi ng, khng h c nghi ng v gi tr
ca tin. l cch tin tr thnh k chim ot vai tr ca
cc gi tr ni ti. Cc t tng ca Thi Khai sng thm su
vo quan im ca chng ta v th gii, v cm hng cao
thng ca n tip tc nh hnh cc k vng ca chng ta,
song tm tnh thnh hnh l xoay x kim tin.
n lc t l tr, nh c Thi Khai sng hiu, di s
kho st ph phn cng loi m Thi Khai sng ging
xung uy quyn bn ngoi, ch ng, c thn thnh ln th tc.
Hin chng ta sng di Thi i L tr sut hai trm nm
qua - di nhn ra l l tr c cc hn ch ca n. Chng
ta sn sng bc vo Thi i ca Tnh C th Sai. Kt qu c
th phn khi ngang vy v, sau khi hc kinh nghim ca
qu kh, chng ta c th c kh nng loi b mt s thi qu
c trng cho bui bnh minh ca mt thi i mi.


Trit l o c

Chng ta cn bt u xy dng li o c v cc gi tr x
hi bng chp nhn c tnh phn thn ca n. iu ny l t
nht qun v phm vi rng cho th v sai. N s l mt nn
tng vng chc cho loi x hi ton cu m chng ta cn.
Kant c th dn ra ngha v tuyt i ca mnh t s tn
ti ca mt tc nhn (agent) o c c hng dn bi
ting gi ca l tr loi tr t li v dc vng. Mt tc nhn
nh th c quyn t do siu vit v t do ch, ngc vi s
pha tp ca tc nhn m ch ca n l thuc vo cc cn
GEORGE SOROS
___________________________________________________

126

nguyn bn ngoi.
33
Tc nhn t tr, duy l ny c kh nng
nhn ra ngha v o c v iu kin, khch quan theo ngha
l chng p dng ph qut cho mi sinh vt c l tr. Coi mi
ngi l mc ch, khng phi l phng tin; lun lun hnh
ng c nh l lm lut ph qut; v x s vi nhng ngi
khc nh vi mnh - y l ngha v tuyt i. Uy quyn v
iu kin ca ngha v c dn ra t nim ca ngi dn l
nhng tc nhn t tr v duy l.
Phin ni tc nhn duy l c Kant m t khng tn ti.
N l mt o tng do qu trnh tru tng ho to ra. Cc
trit gia ca Thi Khai sng mun ngh v mnh nh khng
vng vu, nhng trong thc t h bn r su vo x hi ca
mnh vi o c Thin cha gio ca n v thm m thc
trch nhim x hi. ng h khng th hnh dung v mt
x hi giao dch ni cc mi quan h b cc tnh ton t li ch
dn. i lp lun, nh cc nh nghin cu lut v x hi theo
thuyt th trng chnh thng lm, rng c th c li vi
phm hp ng l chuyn nm ngoi khung dn chiu ca h.
Cc trit gia Thi Khai sng mun thay i x hi ca
h. Cho mc ch ny, h ch ra mt c nhn khng b rng
buc, c ph cho l tr, ch tun theo ting gi lng tm
ca ring mnh, ch khng theo ting gi ca uy quyn bn
ngoi. H khng nhn ra rng c nhn c tch ra, khng
b rng buc tht s c th khng c lng tm; c th hon
ton ch k hay hon ton mt phng hng. thc trch
nhim c c s trong x hi, khng trong c nhn khng can
d. Cc gi tr x hi c th c nhp tm, nhng chng c
gc r trong gia nh, cng ng, xut thn, v truyn thng
m c nhn thuc v, v chng tin ho mt cch phn thn.
Mt nn kinh t khng to thnh mt cng ng, c bit
khi n hot ng qui m ton cu; c mt cng ti thu
lm vic khng ging nh thuc v mt cng ng, c bit
khi ban qun l cho ng c li nhun u tin trn mi cn
nhc khc v c nhn c th b ui vic ngay tc khc. Trong

33
Roger Scruton, Kant (Oxford, U. K.: Oxford University Press, 1989).
X hi M nh mt L tng
__________________________________________________



127

x hi giao dch ngy nay ngi ta khng c x c nh h
c ngha v tuyt i chi phi; cc tnh ton c th lng
nan ca phm nhn minh ho lm sng t hn v ng x ca
h. Php siu hnh ca Kant v o c thch hp cho mt
thi i khi l tr phi u tranh vi uy quyn bn ngoi,
song ngy nay n xem ra khng tho ng l thng khi thiu
uy quyn bn ngoi. Chnh nhu cu phn bit gia ng v sai
b nghi ng. V sao li bn tm, chng no din tin hnh
ng t kt qu mong mun? V sao phi theo ui s tht?
V sao phi chn tht? V sao phi quan tm n ngi khc?
Chng ta l nhng ai nhng ngi to thnh x hi ton
cu, v cc gi tr no l ci chc hn gi chng ta li vi
nhau? Ngy nay y l nhng cu hi cn c tr li.
Tuy vy, s sai lm i gt b trit l o c v chnh tr ca
Thi Khai sng ch v n khng thc hin c cc tham vng
v i ca mnh. Vi tinh thn ca tnh c th sai, chng ta
phi sa s thi qu ca n, ch khng nhy sang thi cc i
lp. Mt x hi khng c cc gi tr x hi khng th tn ti,
v mt x hi ton cu cn cc gi tr ph qut gn kt n
li. Thi Khai sng cho mt tp cc gi tr ph qut, v k
c v n vn sng ng du cho dng nh n m nht i
cht t. Thay cho gt b n, chng ta phi cp nht n.


C nhn Can d
34


Cc gi tr Thi Khai sng c th lm cho tho ng vi hin
ti bng cch thay l tr bng tnh c th sai v thay c nhn
can d cho c nhn khng can d ca cc trit gia Thi Khai
sng. Di c nhn can d, ti hiu l nhng c nhn x hi
cn, nhng c nhn khng th tn ti trong s cch li hon
ho song b ly i thc thuc v, thc chim mt phn
ln nh th ca i sng con ngi Thi Khai sng, vy m

34
Vit on ny ti chu nh hng ca Michael Sandel, Democracys Discontent
(Cambridge: Havard University Press, 1996).
GEORGE SOROS
___________________________________________________

128
h thm ch khng thc c. T duy ca cc c nhn
can d b nh hng bi, nhng khng c quyt nh bi
mi trng x hi, gia nh, v cc rng buc khc, bi vn
ho trong h c nui dy. H khng chim mt v tr
mi mi, khng c vin cnh. H khng c ph cho tri thc
hon ho v h khng phi khng c t li. H sn sng u
tranh tn ti, nhng h khng t tc; d h cnh tranh gii
n u, h s khng sng st v h khng bt t. H cn phi
thuc v ci g ln hn v lu di hn, mc d, do l c th
sai, h c th khng nhn ra nhu cu . Ni cch khc, h l
nhng ngi thc t, cc tc nhn bit suy ngh m t duy ca
h c th sai, khng phi l nhn cch ho ca l tr tru
tng.
Trong xut tng v c nhn can d, tt nhin, ti tin
hnh t duy tru tng cng loi nh cc trit gia Thi Khai
sng. Ti ngh mt s tru tng ho khc da vo kinh
nghim ca chng ta vi cc l thuyt ca chng. Thc ti
lun phc tp hn din gii ca chng ta. Di ca nhng
ngi sng trn th gii thay i t nhng c nhn khng xa
cc l tng Thi Khai sng n nhng ngi ch mi hnh
ng nh cc c nhn, vi ng phn b nghing mnh v
nhng ngi sau. Khi nim c nhn can d bao gm c di.
im ct yu l mt x hi ton cu chng bao gi c th
tho mn nhu cu thuc v ca cc c nhn can d. N chng
bao gi c th l mt cng ng. N ng l qu ln v a
dng cho vic , vi qu nhiu nn vn ho v truyn thng
khc nhau. Nhng ai mun thuc v mt cng ng phi i
kim ni khc. Mt x hi ton cu phi lun l ci g
tru tng, mt t tng ph qut. N phi tn trng cc nhu
cu ca c nhn can d, n phi nhn ra rng cc nhu cu
khng c tho mn, nhng n khng c tm cch tho
mn chng y , v khng hnh thc t chc x hi no c
th tho mn chng mt ln cho mi mi.
Mt x hi ton cu phi nhn thc c cc hn ch ring
ca n. N l mt tng ph qut, v cc t tng ph qut
c th nguy him nu c a i qu xa. C th l, mt nh
X hi M nh mt L tng
__________________________________________________



129
nc ton cu a tng v mt x hi ton cu i qu xa.
Tt c ci m x hi m nh mt tng ph qut c th lm
l dng nh mt c s cho cc qui tc v cc nh ch cn
thit cho s cng tn ti ca qu nhiu c nhn v v s cng
ng to thnh mt x hi ton cu. N khng to ra cng
ng ci c th tho mn nhu cu thuc v ca cc c nhn.
Tuy nhin, t tng v mt x hi m ton cu phi i din
cho ci g nhiu hn s tch t n thun ca cc lc lng
th trng v cc giao dch kinh t. Phi c cc li ch cng
ng no , cc gi tr c chia s no gn x hi li.
Cc li ch cng ng mt phn c to ra bi cc vn
chung m ngi dn i mt v mt phn bi cng ng dn
c i mt vi cc vn .
Cc vn chung khng kh kim trong th gii ph thuc
ca chng ta. Trnh cc xung t v trang tn ph, c bit l
chin tranh ht nhn; bo v mi trng; duy tr h thng ti
chnh v thng mi ton cu: t ngi khng tn thnh cc
mc tiu ny. Ci kh l thit lp cng ng dn c i mt
vi cc vn ny.
Thi Khai sng t c s cho tnh anh em ph qut ca
nhn loi trn tc nhn duy l, c nhn khng can d. C s
t ra khng vng v tc nhn duy l l c th sai v c ch
dn bi t li hn l bi t tng ph qut v tnh anh em.
Chng ta phi tm mt c s vng vng hn. Ti kin ngh
thay bng tc nhn c th sai, c nhn can d. C mt tnh anh
em ti thiu ca nhn loi da vo tnh c th sai chung ca
chng ta, s t vong, v hy th nhn tnh ch k. Chng ta
l khng hon ho vi t cch l cc c nhn, chng ta cn
thuc v x hi. Do hin nay nn kinh t tr nn ton cu,
chng ta cn mt x hi ton cu. Chng ta khng th c mt
x hi m khng tha nhn rng c cc li ch chung no
c quyn u tin trn t li ring ca c nhn; nhng tnh c
th sai ngn chng ta bit cc li ch chung l g. V th
chng ta cn cc qui tc theo chng ta c th thng nht v
cc li ch chung l g v chng ta c th t chng tt nht
th no. iu ny dn chng ta n nhu cu i vi lut quc
GEORGE SOROS
___________________________________________________

130
t v cc nh ch quc t. N khng dn chng ta n mt
nh nc ton cu, nhng n c dn chng ta n kt lun
rng ch quyn quc gia phi c t di li ch quc t
chung. N cng dn chng ta n nguyn l ph: Tha nhn
quyt nh v li ch chung l kh khn n th no, cc quyt
nh phi c a ra mc thp nht c th. Mc cng thp,
th cng c th l n to thnh mt cng ng m c nhn sn
lng t t li ca mnh xung di; nhng thuc v mt
cng ng phi l t nguyn - l mt nguyn l ph qut
phi c thc thi mi mc, k c nh nc.


Cc Nguyn l ca X hi M

Sau s chun b ny, ti cui cng sn sng ni ti hiu x
hi m l g. N c th gy tht vng. Ti s phn bit cc
nguyn l c hiu lc ph qut mi mi v mt m t c th,
c gii hn thi gian ca ci m mt x hi m phi c thi
im hin ti ca lch s. Tt nhin, cc thi i khc nhau,
cc x hi, v cc c nhn cng c th cho cc nh ngha
khc nhau v cc nguyn l ph qut. nh ngha ca ti bao
gm cc quyn t do khc nhau v quyn con ngi, php tr,
v thc no v trch nhim x hi v cng bng x hi.
Quyn t do t tng v ngn lun v quyn t do la chn
c th dn ra t tnh c th sai ca chng ta: V chn l cui
cng l ngoi tm vi ca chng ta, chng ta phi cho
ngi dn suy ngh cho bn thn h v thc hin s la chn
ca ring h. S thc rng hiu bit ca chng ta l khng
hon ho khng c ngha l khng c chn l cui cng;
ngc li, thiu tri thc tho ng ng nhu cu v mt yu
t nim tin. X hi m chng c g chng tn gio. Nhng cc
nguyn l ca x hi m s b vi phm nu tn gio c sai
khin nhng ngi khng ng vi n.
Quyn t do t tng cho php t duy ph phn v quyn
t do la chn cho php c ch th trng hot ng. C hai
u l cc qu trnh gia c nhn vi nhau; bng cch m
X hi M nh mt L tng
__________________________________________________



131
bo cc iu kin cho hot ng ng n ca chng, tt c
chng ta u c li. Quyn t do hi hp lin quan nhiu
n vic chng ta l cc ng vt x hi.
Cc quyn con ngi ring c th c dn ra t vic
chng ta l cc tc nhn c t duy, thc c v mnh v c
kh nng t ly cc la chn. T tng v quyn con ngi
cng gn vo t tng Thin cha gio v tm hn con ngi.
Chng ta phi, tuy vy, nhn ra rng cc quyn con ngi
khc nhau c th i n mu thun vi nhau. Th d, quyn
ca ph n c ngc li vi quyn ca bo thai. V
ti dn quyn con ngi t vic l mt tc nhn c t duy, ti
khng c do d no v quyn ca ai c u tin hn; th m
c nhng ngi t c s cho l l ca h vo linh hn con
ngi v i n pha ngc li. y l mt vn gy chia r
Hoa K ngy nay. Cc x hi khc nhau cc giai on pht
trin khc nhau, v s pht trin ca chng c th c cc hnh
thc khc nhau. V th thc hin quyn con ngi c th khc
nhau gia cc x hi. Cc nh cai tr ca cc nc chm pht
trin i rng chng phi c thc hin mc thp hn. H
c im ng trong chng mc lin quan n cc iu kin
sng, nhng khng kha cnh quyn t do t tng v ngn
lun. Ti c th l l rng quyn con ngi ca nhng ngi
c th ngh cho chnh mnh cn phi thm ch c bo v tha
thit hn cc nc chm pht trin so vi cc nn dn ch
chn mui v chng c gi tr khan him.
Ti hon ton lu c v ci gi l quyn t do x hi v
kinh t v quyn con ngi tng ng: quyn t do khi b
i hoc quyn c n no. Quyn cn c thc thi; thc thi
cc quyn kinh t c th ri vo nh nc v iu s cho
nh nc vai tr qu ln trong nn kinh t. iu ny c th t
ng trch nu gi nh nh nc thc ra l c quan tt nht
lo v cc nhu cu kinh t. Nhng xut c th v
ho ra l tht bi hon ton. Ti thch tha nhn nhu cu gim
i ngho trc tip hn bng a ra thc no v cng
bng x hi nh mt trong nhng nguyn l ct li ca x hi
m. Cch tip cn ny c li th l n ct ngang cc ng
GEORGE SOROS
___________________________________________________

132
bin gii. Chng ta phi tha nhn rng di ch ngha t bn
ton cu cc nh nc ring c nng lc hn ch lo v
phc li cho cng dn ca mnh nhng ngi giu phi c
nhim v gip ngi ngho; v th cng bng x hi l vn
ca mi quan tm quc t.
Cng bng x hi dt khot khng c ngha l bnh qun, v
iu ko thng chng ta li vi ch ngha cng sn. Ti a
khi nim v cng bng x hi ca Rawls hn, cho l mt s
tng ln v tng ca ci cng phi mang li li ch no cho
ngi chu thit thi nht. No c ngha l g phi c
mi x hi xc nh cho chnh mnh, v nh ngha hn c th
thay i theo thi gian. Nhng to ra mt sn chi bnh ng
hn phi c xc nh r nh mt mc tiu ca cc nh ch
quc t. Ti s pht trin t tng ny Chng 12.
Cn quyn s hu th sao? Chng phi c tha nhn nh
mt nguyn l ct li ging nh quyn con ngi? Ti c th
tr li cu hi theo c hai cch. Ti khng nghi ng rng
quyn s hu t nhn l cn bn i vi quyn t do v t tr
v vi t cch l mt phn khng th tch ri ca x hi
m; song ti cng tin chng c quyn no m khng c ngha
v. iu ng vi quyn con ngi v quyn s hu; song
trong trng hp s hu, quyn v ngha v ri vo cng mt
c nhn, trong khi vi nhn quyn c s phn bit r gia c
nhn ngi hng cc quyn v cc nh chc trch nht thit
phi tn trng chng. Chng ta c th bao hm quyn s hu
gia cc quyn t do v quyn, song chng ta khng c
qun mt khim nh ca n: trch nhim x hi nh c
biu l, th d, vic ng thu v thu (tha k) lc cht.
Nhn chung, c xung t din ra gia quyn v ngha v m
cn n cc tho hip v lun cn tnh ton v xem xt li.
Isaiah Berlin nhc n xung t tim tng ny gia cc gi tr
x hi khc nhau nh a nguyn gi tr. Cc tho hip phi
l ra u khng th c quyt nh trn c s ca cc
nguyn l c bn, song cc nguyn l phi c tn trng
mt x hi c t cch nh mt x hi t do v m. V ngi
ta c gi thit l hc bng th v sai, tht t nhin l quan
X hi M nh mt L tng
__________________________________________________



133
im ca h phi tin ho theo thi gian, nhng khng x hi
no c th tn ti lu di m khng c thc no v cng
bng x hi m hu ht thnh vin ca n thy c th chp
nhn c.
Mt x hi m khng th c tho mn, tuy vy, bi mt
nh ngha tng i nh th v cc nguyn l c bn ca n,
v s chuyn ch ca a s (hoc ca thiu s, nh trng hp
Nam Phi di apartheid) khng to thnh mt x hi m. Dn
ch bu c l khng ; n phi c b sung bng s bo v
hin nh ca cc quyn thiu s. Li ln na, cc quyn l
g s thay i tu tng trng hp. Ti gii thch nhng
nguyn l ct li ca x hi m bao gm php tr (rule of law).
Danh mc khng c ngha l ton din; n n thun ch ra
cm cc tng to thnh cc nguyn l ca x hi m.
Lm sao cc nguyn l ny c th chuyn thnh cc iu
kin c th ca mt x hi m ti thi im hin nay ca lch
s? Ch tch qu ca ti, Aryek Neier, gi by iu kin:

Bu c t do, cng bng v u n;
Truyn thng i chng t do v a nguyn;
Php tr c duy tr bng t php c lp;
Bo v hin nh cho cc quyn thiu s;
Mt nn kinh t th trng tn trng quyn s hu v
to c hi v mng li an sinh cho ngi thit thi;
Cam kt gii quyt xung t mt cch ho bnh; v
Lut c thc thi hn ch tham nhng.

Nhng ngi khc c th a ra cc danh mc khc. im
l th l chng ta c th thy cc nc ring t nhiu tho mn
cc tiu chun ny, nhng x hi ton cu ca chng ta th
khng. Thiu st rnh rnh nht l khng c php tr quc t;
v chng ta b tc mt nhng dn xp s ng nht cho duy
tr ho bnh.
Hnh dng chnh xc m nhng dn xp ny phi ly l g
khng th c dn ra t cc nguyn l c bn. i ti thit k
thc ti t trn xung s vi phm cc nguyn l ca x hi m.
GEORGE SOROS
___________________________________________________

134
l ch tnh c th sai khc vi tnh duy l. Tnh c th sai
c ngha rng chng ta khng bit li ch chung l g. Tuy th,
ti tin rng tnh c th sai v c nhn can d to mt c s tt
hn thit lp cc qui tc nn tng cho mt x hi m ton
cu so vi l tr v c nhn khng can d.
L tr thun tu v qui tc o c da trn gi tr c nhn
l cc pht minh ca vn ho Phng Ty; chng c t cng
hng trong cc nn vn ho khc. Th d, o c Khng
gio da trn gia nh v mi quan h v khng khp vi cc
khi nim ph qut nhp t Phng Ty. Tnh c th sai cho
php mt di rng ca s khc bit vn ho, v c nhn can
d cho cc mi quan h tm quan trng ng. Truyn thng
tr tu Phng Ty khng c p t mt cch ba bi ln
phn cn li ca th gii nhn danh cc gi tr ph qut. Hnh
thc dn ch i din ca Phng Ty c th khng phi l
hnh thc duy nht ca chnh ph tng thch vi mt x hi
m.
Tuy nhin, phi c cc gi tr ph qut no c chp
nhn rng ri. X hi m c th l a nguyn v quan nim,
song n khng th i qu xa trong theo ui ch ngha a
nguyn n mc khng cn phn bit c gia ng v sai.
Khoan dung v s iu cng c th c a n thi qu.
Chnh xc ci ng l g c th c pht hin ch bng qu
trnh th v sai. nh ngha hn c th thay i vi thi gian
v a im, nhng phi c mt nh ngha ti bt k thi gian
v a im no.
Trong khi Thi Khai sng a ra trin vng ca chn l
vnh cu, x hi m tha nhn rng cc gi tr l phn thn v
phi thay i trong tin trnh lch s. Cc quyt nh tp th
khng th da trn ting gi ca l tr; th m chng ta khng
th hot ng m khng c cc quyt nh tp th. Chng ta
cn n lut chnh xc l v chng ta khng th chc chn ci
g l ng v sai, v th chng ta cn c n gii thch r
rng. Chng ta cn cc nh ch tha nhn tnh c th sai
ring ca mnh v cung cp mt c ch cho sa sai lm ring
ca chng.
X hi M nh mt L tng
__________________________________________________



135
Mt x hi m ton cu khng th c hnh thnh m
khng c nhng ngi tn thnh cc nguyn l c bn ca n.
Ngi ta phi nhn ra x hi m nh mt dng ng mong
mi ca t chc x hi x hi m thng th. l thnh
phn cn thiu trong th gii ngy nay. Tnh c th sai v tnh
phn thn l cc iu kin ph qut. Nu chng c kt hp
vi s cng nhn cc li ch chung trn qui m ton cu,
chng c th to nn tng chung cho tt c mi ngi trn th
gii. Mt x hi m ton cu s l nn tng chung - v
nhn thc v tnh c th sai ca chng ta s gip chng ta
trnh mt s cm by gn vi cc khi nim ph qut.
Tt nhin, x hi m khng phi khng c cc nhc im
ca mnh, nhng thiu st ca n l ch n cho mi qu t
hn l qu nhiu. Chnh xc hn, khi nim l qu chung
cung cp mt cng thc cho cc quyt nh c th. Cc qui tc
khng c thit lp bng lp lun suy din. S mu thun vi
nguyn l v tnh c th sai nu mi vn u c gii php.
Nhng ngi cho rng mnh bit tt c cc li gii s to ra
mt x hi ng. Bng cng cch, s thc l chng ta khng
bit li ch chung l g khng bin minh cho chng ta t chi
s tn ti ca n. R rng l, tng rng theo ui t li s
chm lo cho li ch chung l quyn r song l tng sai.
Chng ta cn to ra cc nh ch y mnh li ch
chung, bit tht y rng chng nht thit l khng hon
ho. Chng ta cng phi xy dng trong cc nh ch ny mt
nng lc thay i ph hp vi nhng nhn thc v li ch
chung ang tin ho - mt i hi rt kh di nh sng ca
tnh nh ch. Cc i hi ny ch c th tho mn bi mt
qu trnh lin tc ca th v sai.
C kh nng tin ti mt s ng thun v cc nguyn l
ca x hi m? y l cc nguyn l trit hc, tru tng, v
suy ra t tnh c th sai ca chng ta rng cc nim tin ca
chng ta khng c l tr sai khin: V th khng c kh nng
nhn c s chp nhn chung cho cc nguyn l n
gin bng gii ngha chng kh xa s khng tho ng ring
ca ti v trnh by chng. Ci g khc cn phi xy ra.
GEORGE SOROS
___________________________________________________

136
Ngi dn phi c khuy ng, c v, v h phi kt hp
li xung quanh s nghip chung cho li ch chung hn hn
cc li ch c bit.
N c th xy ra trong mt x hi ng, ni s khao kht t
do to ra mt s nghip chung cho ngi dn vi cc li ch
khc hn nhau. N c th xy ra trong mt x hi m? Ti
phi t hi mnh, liu ti c cam kt n nh vy cho x hi
m nh mt l tng nu gi nh ti khng hc c vo
thi tr rng mt x hi ng c th nguy him n th no
cho sc kho ca bn?
Ti thy x hi m chin thng nh mt t tng t
nc qu hng ti, Hungary. Tt c nhng ngi phn i
ch tp hp quanh qu ca ti. Qu ng h phe i
lp gm nhiu loi - v n c h ng h theo ngha l ngn
qu c s dng ng m khng c bt k s gim st no -
nhng mt khi ch b lt nhng loi (ngi) khc nhau
ny quay ra chng ln nhau. l cch n phi l trong mt
nn dn ch. Phin ni cc ng khc nhau, mt thi lin
kt trong vic phn i ca h vi x hi ng, khng cn
c hng dn bi cc nguyn l ca x hi m trong phn
i ln nhau. N l mt bi hc thc t buc ti phi nhn ra
sai st trong khi nim x hi m m ti ch nhn thc l
m. Ti bit, th d, rng khi nim c sai st v mi kin
trc ca con ngi u c sai st, nhng l mt l l
tru tng; y ti i mt vi mt kinh nghim c th.
Ti c kh khn no trong trnh by vn . Mt cch
din t l x hi m cn nhng k th. Karl Popper t tn
cho cun sch ca mnh l X hi M v Nhng K th ca
N (Open Society and its Enemies). Ti, thc t, cng to ra
mt k th mi bng cch tn cng thuyt th trng chnh
thng. Nhng k th xy dng cc cng ng: Chnh l nhng
ngi xy cc thnh ph c tng bao bc cng nh ngi
dn sng trong cc thnh ph ny. y l mt cch khc
ni rng x hi m khng phi l mt cng ng v rng ch
cc cng ng c th c cc tng c chia s ci c
quyn u tin hn t li ca cc thnh vin ca chng.
X hi M nh mt L tng
__________________________________________________



137
iu ny lm r tnh th kh x m chng ta i mt trong
n lc to ra mt x hi m ton cu. Cc cng ng c
xy dng trn s loi tr (ngi khc), trong khi x hi m
tm cch bao hm tt c trn qui m ton cu. Liu c th
thm nhun x hi m vi mt ni dung tch cc hay n lun
phi chng li ci g ? May thay, lun c ci g u
tranh chng li: ngho i, bnh tt, him ho mi trng. K
th khng cn phi l mt nh nc knh ch. Nhng tr phi
chng ta nhn ra mt k th chung m chng ta c th lin
hip chng li, th chng ta chc s c mt th gii chia r
trong cc nh nc quc gia s chin u chng li nhau.
Chng ta tm cch lin kt mc ca nh nc c ch
quyn: Chng ta c cc nh nc dn ch vi php tr v tn
trng ln nhau. By gi chng ta phi i mt vi vn
qui m ton cu.
Gii php khng th ging ht nh quy m nh nc:
Mt nh nc ton cu s to thnh mt mi e do ln hn
i vi t do so vi nh nc ring bit. Chng ta cng khng
th phc ho mt gii php tru tng: iu cng s mu
thun vi cc nguyn tc ca x hi m. V th chng ta phi
xem xt tnh hnh nh n l hin nay. l ci ti s lm
na th hai ca cun sch ny. Da vo s nh gi y, khi
chng ta c th th pht trin mt chng trnh to ra
mt x hi m ton cu. Ti s lm vic cc chng kt
thc. V mc ch gi ng th t, ti mun ch ra trc rng
ti s dng thut ng x hi m cn theo mt ngha khc
na. y ti th xc lp n nh mt t tng ph qut;
ti ti s th chng t lm th no n c th chuyn thnh
hin thc thi im hin ti ca lch s.


CHNG 6

Vn v cc Gi tr X hi





rong chng ny ti s kho st vn v cc gi tr x
hi su hn. iu ny s t nn mng cho xem xt ph
phn h thng t bn ch ngha ton cu nh n thnh
hnh ngy nay.

T

Cc Gi tr Th trng i li cc Gi tr X hi

Mi quan h gia cc gi tr th trng v gi tr x hi khng
d tho g. Vn khng phi l xc lp rng c s khc bit
gia hai th; m l trong quyt nh khi no chng ta phi
c hng dn bi mt th v khi no bi th khc. Nhng
ngi theo thuyt th trng chnh thng c th b qua cc
gi tr x hi bng l l rng cc gi tr - bt lun chng l
g - c th hin trong ng x th trng. Th d, nu ngi
ta mun quan tm n nhng ngi khc hay bo v mi
trng, h c th pht biu kin bng chi tiu tin; ch
ngha v tha ca h tr thnh mt phn ca tng sn phm
quc ni (GNP) ht nh tiu dng d thy ca h. Tt nhin,
c cc vn cn n cc quyt nh tp th, nhng cc la
chn x hi c hng dn bi cng cc nguyn l nh la
chn c nhn.
chng minh rng l l ny l sai ti khng cn vin dn
n tru tng ho, m chng ta c qu nhiu ri; ti c
th rt ra t kinh nghim c nhn ca mnh.
Vi t cch mt ngi tham gia n danh trong cc th
trng ti chnh, ti chng bao gi phi cn nhc cc hu qu
Vn v cc gi tr x hi
___________________________________________________



139

x hi ca cc hnh ng ca ti. Ti lun thc c
rng trong nhng hon cnh no cc hu qu c th c hi,
nhng ti cm thy c bin minh trong b qua chng
trn c s l ti chi theo lut. Tr chi l cnh tranh, v
nu ti p t cc rng buc thm ln mnh, ti c th kt thc
nh mt ngi thua cuc. Hn na, ti hiu r rng s n
o c nhn chng to ra s khc bit v kt qu: Nu ti king
k, ai khc s ly ch ca ti. Trong quyt nh mua hay
bn c phiu hay ng tin no, ti c ch dn bi duy nht
mt cn nhc: ti u ho tin li ca ti trn vn bng cch
cn nhc ri ro i li phn thng. Tuy nhin, cc quyt nh
ca ti c cc hu qu x hi: Khi ti mua c phn ca
Lockheed v Northrop sau khi cc ban qun l b buc ti
tham nhng, ti gip duy tr gi ca c phiu ca h. Khi
ti bn non ng Bng anh nm 1992, Ngn hng Anh quc
pha bn kia ca cc giao dch ca ti, v ti thc t
ly tin t ti ca nhng ngi Anh ng thu. Nhng nu gi
nh ti th tnh n cc hu qu x hi, n s vt tnh ton
ri ro-phn thng ca ti i, v li nhun ca ti gim
xung. May thay, ti khng cn cn nhc cc hu qu x
hi, v chng ng no cng xy ra: Nu gi nh ti khng
mua Lockheed v Northrop, tha ai khc mua. Ngi
Anh ph gi ng Bng bt lun ti sinh ra hay khng.
Nu ti khng lm vic , ai khc s lm l s gi trch
nhim thng thng; nhng trong trng hp ny n c cn
c vng vng. Cc th trng ti chnh c nhiu ngi tham
gia n mc khng mt ngi tham gia n l, n danh no
c th c mt nh hng c th cm nhn c v kt qu.
Ko lng tm x hi ca ti vo qu trnh ra quyt nh s
chng lm nn s khc bit no trong th gii thc; nhng n
c th tc ng xu n kt qu ring ca ti.
L l ny ng ch cho cc th trng ti chnh. Nu gi nh
ti i ph vi con ngi ch khng phi cc th trng, ti
c th khng trnh la chn o c v, l ngi hi kh
tnh, c th khng thnh cng n vy trong kim tin. i
n vn may dn ti n cc th trng ti chnh v cho
GEORGE SOROS
___________________________________________________

140
ti gi cho bn tay ti sch: Pecunia non olet (tin khng c
mi). Nhng ngi tham gia th trng ni chung c min
tr cc la chn o c chng no h chi theo lut. Trong
ngha ny, cc th trng ti chnh khng tri o c; chng
l phi o c. Nhng ngi hon ton ng knh mua v bn
c phn v hng ho c th nh hng n vn may ca ngi
dn nhng ni xa xm: cc th m ng Chu Phi hay cc
cng nhn xy dng Indonesia c th mt k sinh nhai v
mt s thay i v gi hng ho hay t gi hi oi. Nhng
cc kt qu ny khng b nh hng bi cc quyt nh ca
nhng ngi tham gia th trng ring bit; cho nn chng
khng cn i vo tnh ton ca h. Cc vn do bin ng
th trng gy ra ch c th c cp mc chnh sch.
Ti hiu r l l l ny khng cn p dng c by gi,
khi ti tr thnh mt nhn vt c nhiu ngi bit n
m cc hnh ng v tuyn b ca ti c th tc ng n cc
th trng. iu ny lm ny sinh cc vn o c m
trc y ti c min tr v lm cho a v ca ti nh
mt ngi tham gia th trng phc tp hn nhiu.
y l mt th d: Ti l mt ngi ng h tch cc hip
c cm mn, nhng cc qu ca ti c c phn trong mt
cng ti sn xut mn. Ti cm thy bt buc phi bn cc c
phn du cho ti coi chng l mt khon u t hp
dn, v thc ra chng ln gi ng k sau khi ti bn n.
Ti c th khng bn n trc khi ti thnh mt nhn vt
ni ting. Tht ra m ni, vic bn c phn ca ti chng
c nh hng g n sn xut mn, nhng ti khng cn c th
bin minh cho s s hu chng bng cch cho rng mnh l
mt ngi tham gia th trng n danh.
Khng cn l n danh, ti phi cc k cn trng v ci ti
ni. Ti nu r mt im l khng ni bt c th g c th
mang li cho ti nh mt nh u t. D sao i na, ti vn
thng b rc ri. Bc th ca ti cho t Financial Times ti
thi im ca khng hong Nga (xem Chong 9) l mt
trng hp nh vy. Th lng nan cn gay gt hn khi ti
phi quyt nh liu c i ni ci g hay khng ci c th
Vn v cc gi tr x hi
___________________________________________________



141


lm hi ti nh mt nh u t. Th d, ng h thu Toobin
(xem Chng 10), ti trc tip i chng li cc li ch kinh
doanh ca mnh. Thng ti bnh vc Tu chnh ln th Nm
*

(Fifth Amendment); tc l, ti c khng lm hi li ch ring
ca ti, song i khi ti khng th trnh ni ci ti tin. S
thc, l mt nhn vt ni ting trn thc tin lm cho khng
th ng thi l mt nh u t tch cc.
35
May thay, ti
khng cn tch cc trong qun l cc qu ca ti, v ti u
quyn cho cc nh qun l tch cc b qua v tr ca ti nh
mt nhn vt ni ting khi ra cc quyt nh u t. Song y
l mt tho hip ry r, v n lm cho ti nh gi cao li th
ca s n danh.
L quan trng phn bit gia phi o c (amorality) v
tri o c (immorality). Coi cc th trng ti chnh nh tri
o c c th can thip vo vn hnh bnh thng ca chng
v tc mt mt trong cc thuc tnh hu dng nht ca
chng - c th l, tnh phi o c ca n. Tnh phi (ngoi)
o c gip lm cho cc th trng ti chnh hiu qu hn.
o c nu ra cc vn kh m nhng ngi tham gia
trong cc th trng ti chnh c th lng trnh mt cch thun
tin bng cch da vo l l m ti dng.
L l ng vng d cc nh u t c lo u v o c hay
khng. Cho n kh gn y nhiu nh u t trnh mua c
phn ca cc nh my ru, nhng cc quyt nh ca h nh
cc nh u t to ra s khc bit rt nh i vi tiu th
ru cn. Cng th vi mi trng. ng, c nhng thay
i quan trng trong thi ca cc cng ti, nhng nhng
thay i ny xy ra nh kt qu ca p lc x hi, chnh tr, v
php l, ch khng phi quyt nh ca c nhn cc nh u
t. C phn thuc l khng c a thch, nhng s sa st ca
chng l do quyt nh ca to n gy ra, ci c phn nh
ng trong nh gi ca th trng.

*
ca Hin php Hoa k ni v cc quyn c nhn.
35
Ngi nhm chc v cng thng phi t cc khon u t ca h vo mt trust t m.
**

**
(blind trust: nh u t khng h bit giao dch no; chnh khch trnh xung t li ch).
GEORGE SOROS
___________________________________________________

142
Phi tha nhn, cc th trng ti chnh khng ch phn nh
th ng nhng ci cn bn; chng cng c th c vai tr tch
cc trong nh hnh thc ti. Tuy vy, chng ta cn phn bit
ng x tp th v ng x c nhn. ng x tp th ca cc th
trng c cc h qu su rng; ng x c nhn ca nhng
ngi tham gia th trng ch c mt tc ng nh nhoi, v
lun c ngi chi khc sn sng vo cuc vi mt gi khc
cht t. Chnh nh ngha ca th trng hiu qu l khng
ngi tham gia n c no c th nh hng n gi.
Cc th trng ti chnh c th c dng nh v i ca
hnh ng tp th. Th d, s ty chay cc khon u t Nam
Phi ho ra thnh cng thc y s thay i ch
Nam Phi. Nhng hnh ng tp th l ngoi l hn l l
thng, v n phi nh vy, v cng trng ch yu ca cc th
trng l kh nng ca chng biu l cc s thch c nhn.
Cc li ch tp th phi c bo v bng hnh ng chnh tr
v cng dn. S dng cc th trng ti chnh cho hnh ng
cng dn l mt kh nng, nhng khng phi l vic s
dng chnh ca chng. Chp nhn s thc rng cc th trng
l thun khit phi o c phi dn n s tha nhn rng
chng ta khng th hot ng c m khng c khu vc phi
th trng. Tnh phi o c ca th trng lm cho vic cc
gi tr x hi c din t trong cc qui tc chi phi th
trng (cng nh cc kha cnh khc ca x hi) cng quan
trng hn bao gi ht. Ngi tham gia n danh c th b qua
nhng cn nhc o c, chnh tr, v x hi, song nu chng
ta ng ti tc ng do cc th trng ti chnh gy ra chng ta
khng th khng tnh n nhng cn nhc nh vy. Nh
thy trong khng hong 1997-1999, cc th trng ti chnh
c th hnh ng nh tri n ph, ph cc nn kinh t.
Mc d chng ta c bin minh l chi theo lut, chng ta
cng phi ch n lut m chng ta chi. Qui tc do cc nh
chc trch to ra, nhng trong cc nn dn ch cc nh chc
trch b nh hng bi nhng ngi chi.

Vn v cc gi tr x hi
___________________________________________________



143

Mt Phn bit Quan trng

Tham gia th trng v ra qui tc l hai chc nng khc
nhau. L sai lm i nh ng ng c li nhun hng dn
nhng ngi tham gia c nhn vi nhng cn nhc x hi phi
hng dn vic lp qui tc. y chnh l sai lm m mt s
ngi theo thuyt th trng chnh thng vp phi khi h c
m rng tnh ton kinh t sang cc lnh vc hot ng khc,
nh chnh tr hoc lut hp ng. Lm sao h c th xoay x
xong vic ny? Tuyn bo v th nht ca h l h ch m
hnh ho ngi dn ng x ra sao: Ngi ta c th ni v ci
ng v ci sai, nhng khi vi tin h hnh ng theo li ch
ca h. ng tic, c nhiu s tht trong lun im ny. Vic
ra quyt nh tp th trong cc nn dn ch ng thi ch
yu l mt cuc chi quyn lc gia cc quyn li cnh tranh
nhau. Ngi ta c b cong qui tc c li cho ring h.
Nhng l l theo thuyt th trng chnh thng khng vng
chc. Th nht, chng khng m hnh ho ng x thc s;
ng hn, chng to cc m hnh trn gi thit c bit v tnh
duy l. Th hai, cc gi tr l phn thn, v thuyt th trng
chnh thng c khuynh hng cng c ng x t phc v
trong chnh tr. nh hng ca thuyt th trng chnh thng
cng ln, m hnh ca h v ng x ca con ngi tr nn
cng thc t hn. Th ba, ngay cho d cc m hnh ca h c
tng ng vi thc ti, th iu cng chng lm cho l l
ca h ng. Cc hnh ng kinh t c nhng h qu x hi
khng th b qua vi l do con ngi l ch k.
l ch tuyn bo v th hai ca thuyt th trng chnh
thng gp phn: Cc th trng c khuynh hng tin ti cn
bng, v th theo ui t li cng phc v cho li ch chung.
Nhng ngi theo thuyt th trng chnh thng cho rng h
quan tm n phc li chung nh bt k ai khc, v l thuyt
cn bng chung l mt s pht kin v phc li. N c cho
l trung lp vi gi tr, nhng n cho cc th trng t do mt
sc thi o c mnh m bng cch l l rng cn bng chung
l ti a ho phc li. Ti tin ti chng t mt s thiu st
GEORGE SOROS
___________________________________________________

144

ca l thuyt cn bng. y ti phi ch ra rng n mu
thun trc tip vi khi nim x hi m. L thuyt cn bng
chung p dng ch cho mt th gii hon ho, cn gio l cn
bn ca x hi m l s hon ho l ngoi tm vi ca chng
ta. Suy ra rng tuyn bo v th hai ny khng p dng cho
th gii thc t. Do thiu cn bng chung, theo ui t li c
th c nhng h qu x hi xu.
Ngi theo thuyt th trng chnh thng c th gt b s
chng i ca ti trn c s rng li ch ca cc th trng t
do l cho mi ngi trng thy. Ti s l ngi u tin
cng nhn rng cc th trng t do c v vic to ra ca ci;
chng cng l thnh phn ct yu ca x hi m v chng cho
ngi dn thc hin la chn. Nhng nhng ngi theo
thuyt th trng chnh thng, bng cch cu khn n khi
nim cn bng, din gii sai qu trnh. Khng phi xu hng
ti cn bng l ci to ra ca ci m l s gii phng nng lc
sng to. To ca ci l mt qu trnh ng. N khng t iu
chnh, v n khng m bo cng bng x hi.
Tt c iu ny l kh d hiu; nhng kh khn thc s bt
u mt khi c s phn bit gia cc gi tr th trng v gi
tr x hi. Chng lin h vi nhau ra sao? R rng cc gi tr
th trng phn nh li ch ca c nhn ngi tham gia th
trng, trong khi cc gi tr x hi ng n cc li ch x hi
nh c cc thnh vin ca n cm nhn. Cc gi tr th
trng c th c o bng tin, nhng cc gi tr x hi th
phc tp hn: Chng kh quan st v cng kh o lng hn.
o li nhun l d - ch nhn vo dng cui.
*
Nhng lm sao
o cc h qu x hi ca mt ng li hnh ng? Hnh
ng c cc h qu ch v khng ch tri ra gia cc dng
trn dng cui. Chng khng th rt gn v mt dng n
nht, v chng tc ng n nhng ngi khc nhau mt cch
khc nhau. iu lm cho nh gi kt qu kh hn nhiu.
Li ch chung l mt khi nim m h hn t li c nhn

*
Li nhun xut hin dng cui ca bng cn i (theo k ton quc t, v Vit nam).
Vn v cc gi tr x hi
___________________________________________________



145

nhiu, v n d b l i. Cc chnh tr gia lun lm th, v do
khi nim m h n vy h trnh khi n.
Nh mt nh t thin, ti c phc v ci ti coi l li ch
chung, nhng ti nhn thc su sc tt c cc h qu khng
ch m hnh ng ca ti c th gy ra. Ti c cn nhc
chng khi ra cc quyt nh ca mnh. Ti phm nhiu sai
lm, nhng ch t ti c li th l ch ca chnh mnh v th ti
c th sa chng vi s min pht. Cc nh chnh tr khng
c hng s xa hoa nh vy: Th nhn sai lm hn c th
b pht thi k bu c. V th h c bin minh cho cc hnh
ng ca mnh bng bt k l l no h c th tp hp c,
v li ch chung b mt ht trong qu trnh. Do thiu mt tiu
chun khch quan ging nh li nhun, cuc tranh lun sa o
thnh buc ti ln nhau gia chng ta v chng n cho n
khi cng dn bnh thng tin rng tt c chnh tr u thi nt.
y l mt tri ca s c i hon ho: Chng ta t ra cc
tiu chun m cc nh lnh o ca mnh khng th c c,
ri li ch trch h thiu t cch. Bt k ngi bit iu no
u c th thng nht rng s hon ho l khng th t c.
Th m h t tng theo thuyt th trng chnh thng c dn
xp thit lp s hon ho nh tiu chun. N cho rng th
trng l hon ho ngha l n c khuynh hng ti cn
bng hoc ch t hiu chnh nhng thi qu ring ca n; v th
ta phi da vo th trng trong cc quyt nh chnh tr ca
chng ta mc ln nht c th v o thnh tch chnh tr
tng phn vi thnh tch ca cc th trng. L l l sai trong
mi kha cnh, nhng n tr nn chi phi m lun cng khai.
S thc l qu trnh ra quyt nh khng th hot ng
cng tt trong chnh tr v i sng x hi nh trong khoa hc
t nhin hoc cc th trng. Khoa hc c mt tiu chun c
lp, khch quan, c th l cc s thc, l ci cho php s tht
bc l cho d n tri vi l phi thng thng. Cc th trng
cng c mt tiu chun khch quan: li nhun. Trong i
sng chnh tr v x hi, tiu chun sn c duy nht c tnh
ch quan: ngi dn ngh ci g. V hai l do, y khng phi
l c s tin cy cho qu trnh gia cc c nhn v t duy ph
GEORGE SOROS
___________________________________________________

146
phn. Mt l do l kh xc minh thc s ngi dn ngh g.
Tht qu d che giu. Nh chng ta thy, khoa hc x
hi t c kt qu hn khoa hc t nhin v vn ng c
tham gia vo tho lun. Cc nh Marxist, th d, thng lm
lch hng s ph bnh gio l ca h bng kt ti nhng
ngi phn bin l h c hng dn bi li ch giai cp.
Cc nh phn tm hc thng ni rng nhng ngi phn
khng phn tm hc l chi t. V th qu trnh ph phn t
hiu qu hn khi n lin quan n ng c hn l s thc. L
do th hai l cc s thc khng dng c nh mt tiu chun
c lp theo s tht hay tnh hiu lc ca cc nim tin c
th c nh gi. iu ny gi li mt im trc y: Cc
qu trnh phn thn c th l t hp l ho. S thc rng mt
chin lc hay chnh sch hot ng khng chng minh rng
n hp l; sai st s tr nn r rng ch sau khi n ngng hot
ng. Ly mt v d n gin: tng nhanh thm ht ngn sch
hay thm ht thng mi. N to cm gic hay chng no n
cn duy tr, nhng c th l a ngc phi tr mun hn.
Mt s so snh trc tip gia cnh tranh dn ch v c ch
th trng s chng t chnh tr c khuynh hng hot ng t
tt bng cc th trng. y khng phi l s so snh thng
c a ra, v th n c th cho s thu hiu l th no .


Dn ch i din

Dn ch cung cp mt c ch ra cc quyt nh tp th. N
c nh t cng mc tiu cho la chn tp th nh c ch
th trng t c cho la chn c nhn. Cc cng dn chn
cc i din nhng ngi t hp ra cc quyt nh tp th
bng cch b phiu. y l nguyn l i din.
Dn ch i din gi thit trc mt mi quan h loi no
gia cc cng dn v nhng ngi i din. Cc ng vin
i din thuyt v ni cho cc cng dn h ng h ci g; sau
cc cng dn chn ngi m h tin v knh trng nht.
l loi i din m Thomas Jefferson l trong nhng ngy
Vn v cc gi tr x hi
___________________________________________________



147

tt p xa kia, tr vic ng nh trong t vn ng. V
vy dn ch da trn gi thit rng cc ng c vin s thng
thn vi c tri, iu tt nhin l khng thc t. Cc ng c
vin pht hin ra t lu rng c hi trng c ca h cao
hn nu h thay vo ni cho c tri ci c tri mun nghe.
Sai st ny khng tai ho, v h thng cho php n; nu cc
ng vin khng gi li ha, h c th b gt khi chc v.
Trong trng hp , tnh hnh gn cn bng. Cc c tri
khng lun c c nhng ngi i din h mun, nhng h
c th sa sai lm ca mnh vng bu c tip theo.
Tnh hnh, tuy vy, c th tr chiu kh xa cn bng thng
qua qu trnh phn thn. Cc ng vin pht trin cc k thut
khai thc khong cch gia li ha v hnh ng. H tin
hnh kho st cng lun v cc cuc hi hp ca cc nhm c
trng im pht hin ra c tri mun nghe g v sau to
thnh mt thng ip khp vi mong mun ca c tri. Qu
trnh to ra s tng ng gia cc tuyn b ca ng vin v
mong mun ca c tri, nhng n lm th cho khp li ha
ca ng vin vi k vng ca c tri hn l tho mn cc k
vng . Thay cho to ra s lnh o, cc chnh tr gia theo d
lun, v t nc khng c s lnh o m n thc s cn. C
tri tr nn tht vng v mt nim tin vo qu trnh.
Cc c tri khng phi khng ng trch. H c cho l
ng h cc i din t li ch tt nht ca cng ng tn
y lng, nhng h li thng t t li thin cn ln trn li
ch chung. Cc ng vin n lt mnh li li cun t li ca
ngi dn, v v h khng th tho mn tt c mi ngi, h
mc c vi cc nhm quyn li c bit. Qu trnh sa o khi
c tri thi khng n s la o v di tr ca cc ng
vin ca mnh min l h phc v li ch c nhn ca c tri.
Thc o khng phi l tnh chnh trc hay thng minh m l
kh nng kim phiu bu. S mo m c tin cng c.
Qung co TV l i bi c hai mt: Chng thay cc tuyn
b chn tht bng nhng li di tr, chua cay, v chng c
tr bng tin ca ngi biu (hy hiu l cc gii quyn li).
Chc chn Hoa K cc ng vin khng th c tin
GEORGE SOROS
___________________________________________________

148
c bu m khng c mc c vi cc gii quyn li. H
thng l t duy tr mi mi v n thin v nhng ngi ng
nhim, v h khng mun thay i n. y l tnh hnh thnh
hnh ngy nay.
So snh tnh hnh ny vi conglomerate boom m ti m
t Chng 3. Cc ban qun l conglomerate tm c
mt cch khai thc quan h phn thn gia nh gi v
nhng ci cn bn. H pht hin ra rng h c th lm tng
li tc trn c phn bng ha lm tng li tc trn c phn
qua thn tnh. iu ny ging nh tm ra ci c tri ngh v sau
ni cho h ci h mun nghe. C hai u l cc th d v
bt cn bng ng. Nhng c mt s khc bit khng l.
Conglomerate boom c hiu chnh bng mt bust. Cc th
trng c mt cch hiu chnh nhng thi qu ca chng
cc th trng gi xung theo sau cc th trng gi ln.
Nhng dn ch i din t c kh nng phc hi kha cnh
ny. ng, cc chnh ph v c quan lp php u n thay
th nhau, nhng dn ch dng nh khng c nng lc sa
cc sai st ca ring mnh; ngc li, (ton b) c tri dng
nh ngy cng t tho mn vi n. iu ny c biu l bi
s h hng v ch k gia cc c tri v s tng ln ca cc ng
vin dn tu.
Mt li thn trng: Ti nhn mnh l cc th trng c th
hiu chnh cc thi qu ca chng, ng lc khi cc th trng
ti chnh c th ri mt kh nng . Cc nh u t
mt nim tin vo nhng ci cn bn, nhn ra rng cuc chi l
v kim tin, khng phi v cc gi tr c s. Nhiu thc o
c xa nh gi c phiu vp ng, v nhng ngi tip
tc tn trng chng b thua thit so vi nhng ngi tin
vo rng ng ca mt nn kinh t mi. Nhng kt lun l
chng ta thy mnh lnh a xa cn bng s ch c cng
c nu gi nh cc th trng cng mt ci neo ca chng.
Ci ng vi chnh tr cng ng ngang th vi cc gi tr
x hi. Theo cch no , cc gi tr x hi ti hn cc gi tr
th trng. Chng khng th c nh lng - chng thm
ch khng th c nhn din mt cch ph hp. Chng chc
Vn v cc gi tr x hi
___________________________________________________



149

chn khng th c qui v mt mu s chung l tin. Tuy
nhin, mt cng ng xc nh r rng c cc gi tr xc nh
rnh mch; cc thnh vin ca n c th tn trng hay vi
phm chng, c chng duy tr hay b chng p bc, nhng
ch t h bit cc gi tr l g. Chng ta khng sng trong
loi cng ng . Chng ta c kh khn v quyt nh gia
ci ng v sai. Nh th tnh phi o c ca cc th trng
lm xi mn o c thm ch cc lnh vc m x hi
khng th hot ng m khng c n. Khng c s ng
thun v cc gi tr o c nh quyn sng hay quyn la
chn. Cc gi tr tin t t ln ln hn nhiu. Khng ch l
chng c th o c, m chng ta c th cm thy yn tm l
chng c nh gi cao bi nhng ngi xung quanh chng
ta. Chng cho mi mt s chc chn m cc gi tr x hi
nh mt. l cch m cc gi tr chuyn ngh b ng c
li nhun th ch v cc ngh nh lut v y - chng nhc n
chnh tr, hc thut, v thm ch cc t chc t thin v phi
chnh ph - li chuyn thnh kinh doanh.
Cc gi tr x hi c th m h hn cc gi tr th trng,
nhng x hi khng th tn ti m khng c chng. Cc gi tr
th trng c thng tin ln v tr ca cc gi tr x hi,
nhng chng khng thc hin chc nng . Chng c
thit k cho vic ra quyt nh c nhn trong mt bi cnh
cnh tranh v khng ph hp cho ra quyt nh tp th trong
tnh trng cn hp tc cng nh cnh tranh.
s ln ln chc nng xy ra, v l ci lm xi
mn qu trnh ra quyt nh tp th. Cc gi tr th trng
khng th ly ch ca tinh thn v mi ngi hay, dng li ni
c, c hnh cng dn. Mi khi cc li ch chnh tr v kinh
doanh giao nhau, c nguy c l nh hng chnh tr s c
dng cho cc mc ch kinh doanh. L mt truyn thng ng
vng rng nhng i din c bu ch n li ch ca c
tri ca h. Nhng chng ta vch ranh gii u gia ci g l
hp php v ci g khng? S ni tri gn cho cc li ch kinh
doanh v t li ca cc chnh tr gia - y ng ranh
GEORGE SOROS
___________________________________________________

150
gii qu im m hu ht c tri thy c th chp nhn c.
T m c s v mng v bt bnh ca h.
S ln ln chc nng l c bit r rt trong quan h quc
t. Chnh sch i ngoi thng b nhng cn nhc chnh sch
i ni ch ng. Xu hng l c bit mnh Hoa K vi cc
khi c tri sc tc. Cng c truyn thng y cc li ch kinh
doanh bng cc cng c chnh tr. Tng thng ca mt nc
ng u ni vi ti ng ta b sc ra sao khi trong mt cuc
hp vi Jacque Chirac, tng thng Php dng hu ht thi
gian thc y ng chiu c mt ngi mua Php trong v
bn mt cng ti xi mng quc doanh. Ti s thm ch khng
nhc n bn v kh.
lun c tham nhng trong chnh tr, song ngi ta c
cho l xu h v n v c che giu. Hin nay do ng c li
nhun c thng tin thnh mt nguyn l o c, cc chnh
tr gia mt s nc cm thy ht sc xu h khi h khng
li dng c v tr ca mnh. Ti quan st thy iu ny trc
tip cc nc ti c cc qu ti tr. Ukraine, ngi ta ni, l
kht ting tham nhng. Ti cng tin hnh mt nghin cu
cc nc Phi Chu v thy rng nhn dn cc nc giu v
ngho ti nguyn u ngho nh nhau; s khc bit duy nht
l chnh ph ca cc nc giu ti nguyn tham nhng hn.
Th m i gt b s ra quyt nh tp th chnh v n phi
hiu qu v tham nhng l so snh c vi t b c ch th
trng chnh v n bt n nh v khng cng bng. S thi
thc trong c hai trng hp n t cng ngun gc: s khao
kht cho s hon thin v s bt lc chp nhn rng mi
kin trc ca con ngi u c sai st.
Cc tng ca chng ta v c c ch th trng ln dn
ch i din u c hnh thnh di nh hng ca Thi
Khai sng. Chng ta thin v coi quan im ca nhng ngi
tham gia v thc ti m chng lin h n c nh chng c
lp vi nhau. Cc th trng ti chnh c cho l chit khu
tng lai c lp vi cc nh gi hin ti; cc i din c
bu c cho l i din cho cc gi tr no c lp vi bt
k kht vng c bu no. Song khng phi l cch
Vn v cc gi tr x hi
___________________________________________________



151

th gii hot ng. Cc gi tr l phn thn. Do , c c ch
th trng ln dn ch i din chc u khng lm trn c
nhng k vng gn cho chng. Th nhng, chng c l do g
t b bt k ci no. C qu trnh chnh tr v c ch th
trng cn c ci thin, khng phi hu b.
Nhng ngi theo thuyt th trng chnh thng ght ly
quyt nh tp th bt c dng no v n thiu c ch t sa
sai ca th trng. H l l rng li ch cng c phc v tt
nht gin tip, bng cch cho cc th trng t do nh
ot. C gi tr no trong l l ca h, song nim tin ca h
vo th trng b t sai ch v ba l do. Th nht, cc th
trng khng c d kin gii quyt cc vn v cng
bng phn phi; n coi phn b ca ci hin ti l cho trc.
Th hai, li ch chung khng c biu l ng x th
trng. Cc cng ti khng nhm to cng n vic lm; chng
s dng ngi lm (cng t v cng r cng tt) kim li
nhun. Cc cng ti chm sc sc kho khng kinh doanh
cu mng sng; chng cung cp dch v chm sc sc kho
kim li nhun. Cc cng ti du khng tm cch bo v
mi trng tr nhm p ng cc qui ch hoc bo v hnh
nh cng cng ca chng. ng c li nhun c th c
dng nh mt khuyn khch to ra cc kt qu x hi mong
mun, nh cng n vic lm y , y t c gi phi chng,
hoc mt mi trng lnh mnh, nhng nu cc qui tc iu
tit cc ngnh nh chm sc sc kho li b li nhun iu
khin, th nhng h qu khng mong mun no nht thit
xy n. Thc vy, gi nh nu cnh tranh c ph mc cho
c ch th trng th c th khng c cnh tranh g c. Cc
hng cnh tranh nhm kim li nhun, khng phi duy tr
cnh tranh, v nu chng c th, chng s loi b mi s cnh
tranh. Karl Marx nu r im ny khong 150 nm trc.
Th ba, cc th trng ti chnh l bt n nh mt cch c
hu. Ti hon ton hiu r gi tr ca cc th trng ti chnh
nh mt c ch phn hi khng ch cho php m cn buc
nhng ngi tham gia sa cc sai lm ca h, nhng ti phi
ni thm l bn thn cc th trng ti chnh cng to ra cc
GEORGE SOROS
___________________________________________________

152
sai lm. tng, rng cc th trng lun ng, l sai. Bn
thn thuyt th trng chnh thng cng cn c sa bng
mt qu trnh th v sai. Cc ngn hng trung ng l c bit
ph hp vi cng vic v chng tng tc vi cc th trng
ti chnh v nhn phn hi, cho php chng sa sai lm ring
ca mnh. Nhng ngi theo thuyt th trng chnh thng ch
ra kh nng mau phc hi xut sc ca cc th trng ti chnh
bc b tnh bt n nh cn bn ca chng. Hy xem chng
phc hi nhanh th no t khng hong 1997-1999, h ni.
Nhng h khng tnh n vai tr to cn bng ca cc nh
chc trch tin t; ngc li h cho l khng hong ny sinh
trc ht v IMF to ra ri ro o c khuyn khch cho
vay thi qu. Nh ti s l l Phn II ca cun sch ny, h
thng ti chnh ton cu c th sp nu khng c can
thip kp thi ca Cc D tr Lin bang, v n thm ch
gi cho nn kinh t khng trng trnh k t ; IMF t thnh
cng hn v cc nn kinh t mi ni phi tr gi t cho
vic . Cc nh chc trch tin t quc t rt cn ci cch.
Ti cng chia s s c cm thnh hnh i vi chnh tr. Ti
l mt thuc h ca cc th trng v ti thch quyn t do v
cc c hi m chng to ra. Nh mt ngi tham gia th
trng, ti ra cc quyt nh ca ring mnh v hc t nhng
sai lm ca mnh. Ti khng cn thuyt phc nhng ngi
khc lm vic g c, v kt qu khng b hot ng
chnh tr vn phng lm bi ri. Nghe c v l, tham gia vo
cc th trng ti chnh lm tho mn s truy tm chn l ca
ti. Nh th d cho ti c nh kin c nhn ght chnh tr v
cc hnh thc khc ca ra quyt nh tp th, ti tha nhn l
chng ta khng th hot ng m khng c chng.


Cc Gi tr X hi trong mt X hi M

Qu trnh ra quyt nh tp th c th c ci thin ra sao
trong mt x hi m? Ti xut mt qui tc kh n gin:
Ngi ta phi tch vai tr ca h nh ngi tham gia th
Vn v cc gi tr x hi
___________________________________________________



153

trng khi vai tr nh ngi tham gia chnh tr. Nh ngi
tham gia th trng, ngi ta phi theo ui t li c nhn ca
h; nh ngi tham gia qu trnh chnh tr, h phi c ch
dn bi li ch cng cng.
S bin minh cho qui tc ny cng kh n gin. Trong
tnh hnh gn cnh tranh hon ho, khng mt ngi cnh
tranh n l no c th nh hng n kt qu; cho nn cc
quyt nh th trng ring l khng c nh hng no n
tnh hnh x hi, bt lun c lo lng n li ch chung hay
khng. Nhng cc quyt nh chnh tr c nh hng n tnh
hnh x hi; cho nn c s khc bit hon ton liu chng
phc v li ch cng hay khng.
Bn c tinh s n mt sai st tin tng trong l l
ny. Nu nhng ngi tham gia th trng c min khi
xem xt cc h qu x hi ca hnh ng ca h v nh hng
ca h ln kt qu ch t i, cng cc cn nhc nh vy c p
dng cho cng dn bnh thng tham gia lm ra cc qui tc
khng? Chng phi nh hng ca c tri n l cng khng
c ngha sao? ng, song tham gia th trng v tham
gia chnh tr l hai loi hot ng khc nhau. Nhng ngi
tham gia th trng theo ui t li ring qua t do trao i
vi nhng ngi khc; cc c tri biu l quan im ca mnh
v li ch tp th. Cho nn cc hot ng khc nhau phi c
nh gi bng cc thc o khc nhau: cc quyt nh th
trng bng cc hu qu c nhn, tham gia chnh tr bng cc
hu qu x hi.
C nhiu trng hp cc quyt nh chnh tr chm n
quyn li sng cn ca cc nhm hay cc c nhn no . i
hi h c ch dn bi li ch cng l qu nhiu. Tuy vy, l
, nu ngi dn tun th s phn bit vai tr khi khng dnh
n quyn li sng cn ca h. Qun chng khi s to
thnh trng ti phn x nhng ngi chi c hai mt ca
mt vn . Chng no trng ti c li ni cui cng, li ch
chung c c hi tt thng th.
Nhim v ca trng ti rt phc tp bi s thc rng cc
quyt nh chnh tr ngy nay ch yu l v ngn sch, ch
GEORGE SOROS
___________________________________________________

154

khng v lm ra qui tc. Ngn sch l chuyn tin bc, v kh
m v t v n. Tuy nhin, ti l l rng s phn bit gia lm
lut v chi theo lut c p dng. Xt vn bi b thu di
sn, ni ln ng vo lc vit sch ny. Nh mt cng dn ti
chng s bi b; nh mt ngi chi ti li dng mi l hng
php l.
36

Ti phi nhn mnh rng ti xut qui tc ca mnh nh
mt qui tc o c, khng phi nh la chn duy l m ngi
ta nht thit phi theo chng no h l duy l. S l tai hi nu
trong chc nng lm lut ca mnh chng ta cho rng ngi
dn thc ra sn sng tun theo qui tc o c ny. Cc nh
sng lp ra cng ho M khng phm sai lm . H cho
rng ngi ta ch k, v thit lp kim tra v cn bng (checks
and balance)
*
lm cn cc tc ng hn lon ca t li.
Tuy nhin, cc nh sng lp c th coi mt cht c
hnh cng dn l nghim nhin. H khng tnh n s tng
ln ca cc th trng giao dch, cnh tranh. Uy lc ca ng
c li nhun trn c hnh cng dn lm xi mn qu trnh
chnh tr. iu chng thnh vn nu c th da vo c
ch th trng mc m nhng ngi theo th trng chnh
thng i hi. Nhng hnh ng c cc hu qu x hi. S lan
rng ca thuyt th trng chnh thng v s thm nhp ca
ng c li nhun vo cc lnh vc m n khng thch hp t
cc nh ch ca nn dn ch M vo mi nguy him, iu v
c bn khng xy ra sut hai trm nm lch s ca n.
Trong thc tin, s phn bit gia lm lut v chi theo lut
hon ton b l i. Vn ng hnh lang v bn nh hng li
c thc hnh v chp nhn rng ri. Nhng chng ta khng
c n gin b cuc v nhp vo m ng. S lun c
nhng ngi t li ch c nhn ca h ln trn li ch chung.
Vn n khng, hng khng - freerider ny lm ri
lon s hp tc, nhng vn c th c khc phc nu

36
George Soros, No, Keep It Alive to Help the Needy, The Wall Street Journal (New
York), July 14, 2000.
*
C ch phn quyn cc c quan khc nhau c th kim tra ln nhau sao cho quyt nh
c cn i gim thiu s lm quyn.
Vn v cc gi tr x hi
___________________________________________________



155

ng ngi nhn ra s khc bit gia cc gi tr th trng v
gi tr x hi.
Gi tr th trng l phi o c cn gi tr x hi l tinh
tu o c. Cc gi tr th trng l v thng cuc; cc gi tr
o c l v lm ci ng, thng hay thua. Nu c ch dn
bi ci nhng ngi khc lm, chng ta s hnh ng nh
nhng ngi tham gia trong mt cuc ua ni thng cuc l
vic quan trng. Nu tht s tin vo cc gi tr o c, chng
ta phi lm ci ng cho d nhng ngi khc khng lm.
Vn n khng n gin khng p dng, v mc tiu khng
phi l kim c li th cnh tranh m l lm ci ng.
Ti chng bao gi qun nhng li ca Sergei Kovalev,mt
ngi Nga bt ng quan im v nh hot ng nhn quyn,
ni vi ti rng ng t ho nh cc trn lun tht bi
sut c i ng. Ti khng snh c vi tiu chun ca ng,
nhng ti thc hnh ci ti thuyt ging. Ti c gng l mt
ngi thng cuc nh mt ngi tham gia th trng v ti n
lc phc v li ch chung nh mt cng dn v mt con
ngi. i khi kh gi hai vai tr tch bit, nhng nguyn l
l r rng. Ch t n r vi ti. Gi nh n r rng cho
ng ngi, vn n khng s bin mt. a s s lm ci
ng bt chp nhng k n khng v nhng k n khng s
ngng ch ng (quang) cnh. H c th thay i ng x ca
h. Cc c nhn can d, dng cch ni trc y ca ti, rt lo
v vic ngi khc ngh v h th no. H c th chuyn tm
trong theo ui thnh cng, nhng h khng th coi n l mt
thnh cng nu h chu s nhc ni chung. c t li hng
dn, nhng k n khng s phi giu gim hn cch c x ca
mnh. iu s l mt s ci thin ln so vi tnh trng hin
ti, ni n khng c chp nhn l hp php v thit thc.
o c thng ng mt vai tr quan trng hn trong
i sng x hi, nhng n i km rt nhiu o c gi v
gi v. C phi ti thc s kin ngh quay li tnh trng ?
Ti khng tin l c th, hay khn ngoan, quay ng h li.
Mi th h phi t s ho gii ring ca mnh gia cc
nguyn l o c v tnh thit thc. Vo thi Trung C, khi
GEORGE SOROS
___________________________________________________

156

tn gio l ti cao, c s thch nghi gia nh th v nh
nc, i din bi Gio Hong v Hong Roma Thnh
thin. Ngy nay, khi th trng tr nn c uy th n vy,
cn mt loi thch nghi khc, mt loi dn xp da trn s
phn bit gia lm lut v cnh tranh.
Ngi dn phi c th theo ui t li chng no h cnh
tranh theo lut v h chng cn t ra cao o v vic .
Cn v lm lut, tuy nhin, li ch chung phi c a v cao
hn. ng, mt yu t o c gi s ln vo v ngi ta mc
chng lm ra v tng thn tng i trong l l bin minh
trng hp ca mnh, nhng iu hp hn vi s theo ui
t li hin nhin thnh hnh trong chnh tr ngy nay.
Kh ni ngi dn khng th c iu kin ch n
li ch chung. H thng t bn ch ngha ton cu da trn
cnh tranh, v cnh tranh tr nn cng thng n mc ngay
c ngi thnh cng nht cng khin phi u tranh cho s
tn ti. Thc vy, ngi thnh cng nht l ngi di p
lc cng thng nht, nh v Microsoft minh ho.
37
y l mt
tnh trng ng bun. Di s phn phi trc y, ngi
giu v thnh cng hng mc t tr v nhn ri ln
hn. Tng lp qu tc ch t c th hin dng mnh cho cc
th cao qu hn trong cuc i. Ngay c John D. Rockefeller
ti nh cao thnh cng ca mnh c th b thi gian i mt
chuyn du ngon Chu u di. Nhng cc nh t bn ngy
nay l nhng k n l ca cc th trng ti chnh. H phi
thc hin mi qu. Thng c s ng ngi khng theo
kp trong cnh tranh: cc nh chuyn nghip, tr thc, cng
chc, ngi sng bng li tc, nng dn; s lng h
gim. X hi ca chng ta giu c hn, song ti tin tt c
chng ta ngho i v n. Phi c nhiu hn cho cuc i
hn l s tn ti, th m khn sng mng cht tr thnh
du xc nhn phm cht ca nn vn minh ca chng ta.

37
Ngi ta thng ch trch Bill Gates, Ch tch Microsoft, v khng biu cho nhiu hn t
ca ci ca ng. H khng nhn ra rng nhng i hi cp bch ca cng vic kinh doanh ht
ht nng lc ca ng ta. Gi y chin u chng li phn xt chng c quyn ca B T
php, lm t thin l mt phn chin lc kinh doanh ca ng ta.

Vn v cc gi tr x hi
___________________________________________________



157

Ti tin tt c nhng iu ny lm mo m ci l ra phi
l mt x hi m, nhng ti phi thn trng trnh by tnh th
ra sao. Ti khng th coi mnh nh trng ti cui cng phn
x ci g to thnh x hi m. Tt c ci ti c th ni l thay
th ng c li nhun cho cc gi tr x hi l mt s lm lc.
Ngi dn c hng dn bi cc loi gi tr khc nhau
thng mu thun vi nhau. Vi t cch nhng k cnh tranh,
h c gng ti a ho li nhun ca mnh; nh nhng con
ngi, h cng c nhng lo u ca h. Isaiah Berlin gi n l
a nguyn gi tr. Ch ngha a nguyn gi tr c th xem
nh mt kha cnh ca tnh c th sai v khng c cch no
trnh xung t gia cc gi tr v kht vng khc nhau. Th
d, tnh bn v s quan tm khc n con ngi c th mu
thun vi ng c li nhun khi phi sa thi ngi. Thuyt th
trng chnh thng, bng nh ngha ng x duy l l theo
ui t li, thc t t tt c nhng cn nhc khc xung di
ng c li nhun. V th thuyt th trng chnh thng vi
phm mt nguyn l ct li ca x hi m bng cch t chi
ch ngha a nguyn gi tr.
lp li: Cc th trng ti chnh l khng tri o c,
chng l phi o c. Ngc li, ra quyt nh tp th khng
th hot ng thch hp m khng nu ra s phn bit gia ci
ng v sai. Chng ta khng bit ci g l ng. Nu gi nh
chng ta bit, chng ta chng cn n chnh ph dn ch;
chng ta c th c mt ng vua trit hc cai tr. Nhng
chng ta phi c thc c bn v ci ng v ci sai, mt nh
sng thm kn hng dn ng x ca chng ta nh cc cng
dn v cc nh chnh tr. Khng c n, dn ch i din khng
th hot ng. ng c li nhun lm lu m nh sng .
Tnh thit thc c t trn cc nguyn l o c. Trong
mt x hi giao dch cnh tranh cao, quan tm n li ch ca
nhng ngi khc c th ho thnh mt bt li. C mt qu
trnh chn lc t nhin c hi hot ng: Nhng ngi khng
c hnh l ca nhng cn nhc c khuynh hng vt ln
nh. Nu ng c li nhun c ch ng v i chnh tr,
th x hi b tc mt bt k c s o c no. Chng no
GEORGE SOROS
___________________________________________________

158
cn c th cho mt x hi tn ti m khng c mt c s o
c, n khng phm cht nh mt x hi m. Trong mi
trng hp, ai mun sng ?


Xem xt Li

Ti pht hin ra t phn ng vi phin bn ban u ca
cun sch ny rng ngi dn gp kh khn trong chp nhn
cc th trng l phi o c. Nhiu ngi, nhng ngi quan
tm n o c (v mt s nh bo n v mt kha
cnh tt) coi cc th trng ti chnh l tri o c. tng
rng ng x th trng l (phi) ngoi o c nm ngoi
khung dn chiu ca h. H nghi rng l l ca ti nhm t
phc v: Ti dng n nh mt li bo cha bin minh cho
cc hot ng tri o c ca ti vi t cch mt nh u c
ti chnh. S thc rng ti hay bt gp phn ng ny n nh
vy lm cho ti ngh rng c th ti ang ni v ci g mi
v quan trng. Phi nh rng s pht trin ca o c v tn
gio i trc s pht trin ca cc th trng ti chnh. Nh
mt nh u c ti chnh ti c th c mt vin cnh khc
nhng ngi khc ngh v nhng vn ny.
Ti tham gia vo mt cuc chin hin nay v ti ny
vi Frederik van Zyl Slabbert, ch tch ca Sng kin X hi
M cho min Nam Chu Phi (OSISA: Open Society Initiative
for Southern Africa). ng l mt ngi sng o su sc
ngi khng th chp nhn tng rng bt k hnh ng
no c th l phi o c. Thc vy, ng coi tnh phi o c
l ti li ti t hn tnh tri o c. iu ny nu ra cu hi
liu o c lin quan n nh hay kt qu; cn c vo qui
lut v cc hu qu khng d tnh trc c, hai th khng
ging ht nhau. Ti sn sng tha nhn ng im l o c
phi p dng cho cc nh, v kt qu khng th bit trc
c. D c ng nh th th, ti nht quyt rng chng c
ngha g trong p dng phn x o c i vi cc quyt
nh khng c kt qu - v l trng hp lin quan n nh
Vn v cc gi tr x hi
___________________________________________________



159

hng x hi ca cc quyt nh u t c nhn. Cc quyt
nh nh hng n li nhun ca cc c nhn, ch khng
n gi thnh hnh trn th trng. l ci ti mun ni khi
ti ni rng cc th trng l phi o c: Ngi tham gia n
danh khng cn phi lo v cc hu qu x hi ca quyt nh
ca mnh. Ngc li, cc hnh ng chnh tr, nh b phiu
hay vn ng hnh lang hay thm ch l l, c cc hu qu x
hi. l l do v sao chng ta cn phn bit vai tr ca mnh
vi t cch ngi tham gia th trng v vi t cch ngi
tham gia chnh tr, gia lm lut v chi theo lut. Vi t cch
nhng ngi chi, chng ta phi c t li hng dn; vi
t cch ngi lm ra qui tc, chng ta phi c ch dn bi
quan im ca mnh v li ch chung. Nu chng ta theo qui
tc ny, c t li ln li ch chung s c p ng tt.
Ti i n qui tc ny khi ti cn l mt ngi tham gia th
trng n danh. iu che giu s nghip ca ti v ti
chnh cho n v bao gm c t ph gi ng bng Anh nm
1992. Ti vt tm mn che khi ti cho mnh c bit n
nh ngi nh sp Ngn hng Anh quc. K t , ti
c loi tri nghim khc. Ti mt tnh n danh ca mnh.
Ti tr thnh mt nhn vt ni ting m li ni ra c th tc
ng n kt qu. Ti khng cn c th trn thot vic phi
a ra phn xt o c. iu ny trn thc tin lm cho
vic ti hot ng nh mt ngi tham gia th trng l
khng th.
Kinh nghim ny dy ti v nhng hn ch ca qui tc
ca mnh. N khng gii quyt c th lng nan ca nhng
ngi khng l ngi tham gia n danh, v iu bao gm
trn thc tin tt c mi ngi tin hnh kinh doanh v hot
ng chnh tr. Hai vai tr xung t nhau trn mt di rng
cc tnh hung: th d, khi mt ngi iu hnh doanh nghip
c mi tham gia mt u ban hnh ng chnh tr, hoc khi
mt chnh tr gia c yu cu nu lp trng v mt vn
l mi quan tm ca mt trong nhng ngi ng h ca mnh.
Qui tc t ra cc nan gii o c; n khng gii quyt
chng. iu mi c nhn v mi x hi phi t gii quyt
GEORGE SOROS
___________________________________________________

160
ly cho ring mnh. Hn na, qui tc khng cho mt ch dn
tin cy cho cch x s bnh thng v kinh doanh. Khng c
cc qui tc chung phi i x vi ngi, phi cn i s lu
tm n ngi khc v i hi v thnh tch kinh doanh ra
sao; mi ngi phi t dn xp v sng vi cc hu qu.
Nhng ph phn m ti nhn c lm cho ti nhn thc r
v v tr c bit m ti chim gi nh mt ngi tham gia
th trng n danh. Trong hu ht s nghip ca mnh, ti
thm ch khng c mt t chc kinh doanh u tranh
vi. Ti n c. Ti c th tp trung vo th trng m
khng ri tr. Ti coi giao thip vi con ngi - dng cc
nh u t, cc i tc, nhn vin, nh mi gii l mt s
ri tr. thnh cng trong cc th trng ti chnh ngi ta
cn chuyn tm v n. Ti mun thnh cng, song ti
khng sn sng t b bn sc ring ca mnh theo ui
thnh cng. l l do v sao ti thch gi cuc sng kinh
doanh v cuc sng c nhn ca mnh mt cch tch bch
nghim ngt. cng l l do v sao ti thit lp qu ti tr
mt khi ti c nhiu tin hn ti cn cho s dng c nhn
ca mnh. Cng thc c kt qu. Ti thy d hn kim tin
v cho tin hn l a nhng cn nhc o c vo cc
hot ng kim tin ca mnh. Nh ti ni ni khc, ti
tr nn ging nh mt ng tiu ho khng l, nhn tin vo
mt u v y n ra u kia.
chnh t im li th ny m ti hnh thnh quan im
ca mnh v vai tr ca cc th trng ti chnh nh mt c
ch hiu qu nhng d man, v ti tin s hiu thu ca ti c
gi tr. Cc th trng ti chnh l phi o c, v l l do
v sao chng li hiu qu n vy trong tp hp quan im
ca nhng ngi tham gia. Chnh xc v phm cht , chng
khng c chu trch nhim quyt nh tng lai. Ti tin
s phn bit gia lm lut v chi theo lut l c hiu lc;
nhng n cn xa mi l mt ch dn o c ton din. Rt t
ngi thy mnh c lp trng ging nh ca ti, v lp
trng ca ti cng thay i.
Vn v cc gi tr x hi
___________________________________________________



161

Khi ti tr thnh mt nh t thin thc s, ti kin quyt
gi cc qu ti tr ca ti tch bit nghim ngt khi cng vic
kinh doanh ca ti nh ti gi vi i t ca ti. Ti tin
chc l iu ny ng gp vo thnh cng ca chng, v n
cho php ti ch tm vo vic lm t thin nh ti lm vi
cng vic kinh doanh ca mnh. Nhng ti khng c kh
nng duy tr s phn li. Cc nc m ti c qu ti tr cng rt
cn n u t nh h cn t thin, v sau nhiu t vn lng
tm ti quyt nh u t vo Nga. iu ny ko ti vo
rc ri kh lng, nh ti s k li Chng 9. ng thi,
cc qu ti tr ngy cng dnh lu n cc hot ng kinh
doanh, h tr cc t bo, xut bn, cc l m doanh nghip,
Internet, v cho vay cc nh. Nhng pht trin ny buc ti
phi xem xt li lp trng ca mnh. Ti vn ranh mnh v
ho trn kinh doanh v t thin, nhng ti nhn ra rng iu
khng th trnh khi. Ti c c n c th trnh n
chng no m ti lm. By gi ti chun b i xa hn na:
Khng phi trnh n. Ti l l rng chng ta khng th
hot ng m khng c chnh tr du cho n tham nhng v
phi hiu qu. Cng l l p dng cho trch nhim x hi
trong kinh doanh. Nu chng ta khng th trnh ho trn kinh
doanh vi o c (nh ngi tham gia n danh c th trong
mt th trng hiu qu), chng ta vn c th c gng lm tt
vic . Kt qu nht thit l khng tho mn: Cc doanh
nghip kinh doanh hn c th t trch nhim x hi xung
di theo ui li nhun. Hnh nh c a v cao hn thc
cht, v ngay c nhng ngi c ng c tht s cng buc
phi cho li ch kinh doanh ca h mt trng lng xng
ng. Nhng c kt qu no l tt hn khng c. Nu p
lc x hi khin cc cng ti hnh ng vi s quan tm ln
hn n mi trng hay nhng cn nhc x hi khc, cng
nhiu cng tt - mc d chng ta khng th b qua l cc
nhm mi trng thng a ra nhng i hi qu ng.
Tuy vy, s l mt sai lm cc cn nhc x hi cho cc
cng ti lo. Cc cng ti do cng chng s hu l cc t chc c
mt mc ch - kim tin. Cnh tranh cng khc lit, h cng
GEORGE SOROS
___________________________________________________

162
t c kh nng i trch. Nhng ngi chu trch nhim c
th l nhng ngi c dng tt v l cc cng dn ngay
thng, song phm vi vn ng ca h b hn ch nghim ngt
bi a v m h chim. H buc lng phi gi vng li ch
ca cng ti. Nu h ngh thuc l c hi cho sc kho, hoc c
v ni chin kim c c nhng khai m l tng tn
lng tm, h nn b vic lm ca mnh. Ch ca h s c
chim bi nhng ngi sn lng tip tc. l qu trnh chn
lc t nhin c hi m ti nhc ti trc.
Cng vy p dng cho cc t chc phi chnh ph (NGO).
Chng, cng th, l cc t chc c mt mc ch khng th li
thn khi cc mc tiu m chng chp nhn. Trn phng
din no , lnh o ca cc t chc phi chnh ph tn tm
i vi mc ch ca h hn cc nh iu hnh doanh nghip
vi li nhun v h cm thy mnh pha cc thin thn, trong
khi nhng ngi kinh doanh c th cm thy t chnh ng
hn v cc li ch kinh doanh ca h. Ti bit ti ni v ci
g, v ti l ngi sng lp mt mng li c l ln nht th
gii ca cc t chc phi chnh ph. Ti ngh cc t chc phi
chnh ph c th lm rt nhiu vic tt bo v quyn li
ca cc khu vc t c bo v ca x hi, nhng chng
khng th c giao vic lm qui tc hn cht no so vi khu
vc kinh doanh. Chng c th ch trng mt quan im c
bit no , v gii kinh doanh cng c th vy, v mt chnh
ph dn ch s m cho mi vin cnh, nhng quyt nh
phi cui cng vo tay ca cc cng dn. hon thnh
vai tr nh ngi trng ti, cc cng dn phi c kh nng
tch mnh khi vai tr nh ngi tham gia m li ch b ng
chm. iu ny d thc hin hn l bo cc cng ti do cng
chng s hu t ng c li nhun xung di li ch cng.
Nh ti ni trc, khng nht thit l tt c mi cng dn
phi tun theo qui tc ny, chng no mt s cng dn lm
nh vy bt chp nhng ngi khc lm g. Ti s chc chn
tip tc lm vy cho d nhng ngi khc khng lm.
Ni ti sa i lp trng ca mnh l lin quan n tinh
thn khi nghip x hi (social entrepreneurship). Ti
Vn v cc gi tr x hi
___________________________________________________



163

thng c tuyt n v s ght bm sinh ca ti vi ho trn
kinh doanh v t thin. Kinh nghim dy ti, tuy vy, rng
ti sai: Nh mt nh t thin ti thy nhiu doanh
nghip x hi thnh cng, v ti tham gia vo vi trong s .
Cui cng, ti pht hin mt sai lm trong logic ca ti.
Khng c chuyn l mt l tri, khng c trn ln cc ng c
trong mt doanh nghip x hi v c s ho hp trch nhim
x hi vi ng c li nhun; trong doanh nghip x hi, li
nhun khng phi l mt ng c, n l mt phng tin cho
mt mc ch. Cc doanh nghip khng v li nhun i mt
vi mt nhim v kh hn cc doanh nghip v li nhun v
thiu mt tiu chun n l, li nhun, m theo thnh tch
ca n c th c nh gi. Nhng khng phi l l do
e ngi lng trnh chng; ngc li, chng t ra thch thc
ln hn. Vic t thin, cng vic x hi, v mi dng can
thip chnh thng b vy vo vng bn quan liu. Th m c
nhng ngi sng to, giu tr tng tng nhng ngi thc
s chm lo cho tnh trng x hi. Ti thay i suy ngh l
tnh sng to kinh doanh c th t c ci m cc qu trnh
quan liu khng th t c. Th d, ti cho mt khon bo
lnh 50 triu $ cho mt nh ch th chp ti chnh Nam
Phi, t chc ti tr hn 100.000 n v nh c gi r.
Cho n by gi, khng phi dng n mt xu no ca bo
lnh ca ti, v nh ch c qun l tt. Kh khn l v xc
lp cc thc o ph hp cho thnh cng. Hy xem cho vay
cc nh (microlending): N l mt phng php hu hiu
xo i gim ngho. Ngn hng Grameen v nhng ngi
ngang hng ca n lm thay i bc tranh x hi ca
Bangladesh. Phin ni cho vay cc nh i hi vn t bn
ngoi cho tng trng. Nu tiu chun thch hp c th c
pht trin, ti chc chn rng nhiu hn nhiu vn bn ngoi
c th c thu ht cho lnh vc ny.
Tm li, ti gi li s phn bit ca mnh gia lm lut v
chi theo lut, nhng ti xt li quan im c tuyt trc y
ca mnh v doanh nghip x hi.


PHN II



THI IM HIN TI
TRONG LCH S




165



CHNG 7

H thng T bn Ch ngha Ton cu








y gi chng ta n im then cht ca vn : Khung
kh l thuyt tru tng m ti trnh by k lng
lm sao c th soi ri ln thi im hin ti ca lch
s? Lun im ca ti l h thng t bn ch ngha ton cu
thnh hnh ngy nay l mt dng b bp mo ca x hi m.
N tin qu nhiu vo ng c li nhun v cnh tranh v
khng bo v li ch chung thng qua ra quyt nh hp tc.
ng thi, n qu nhiu quyn lc vo tay cc nh nc c
ch quyn, thng vt qu s kim sot dn s. Nhng thi
qu ny phi c sa cha vi thc y v tnh c th
sai ca con ngi, tha nhn rng s hon ho l khng th
t c.
B
Chng ta sng trong mt nn kinh t ton cu c c
trng khng ch bi thng mi t do v hng ho v dch v
m thm ch nhiu hn bi s lun chuyn t do ca vn. Li
sut, t gi hi oi, v gi c phiu cc nc khc nhau c
quan h mt thit vi nhau, v cc th trng ti chnh c nh
hng gh gm ln tnh hnh kinh t. Cn c vo vai tr quyt
nh m vn ti chnh quc t ng trong vn may ca cc
nc ring bit, thch hp ni v mt h thng t bn ch
ngha ton cu.
H thng bit i vn ti chnh, v vn t do n ch c
thng cng nhiu nht. iu ny n lt n li dn n s
tng trng nhanh ca cc th trng ti chnh ton cu. Kt
GEORGE SOROS
___________________________________________________

168
qu l mt h thng lu thng khng l, ht vn vo cc nh
ch v th trng ti chnh trung tm, sau bm n n
ngoi vi hoc trc tip, dng tn dng v u t chng
khon, hoc gin tip thng qua cc cng ti siu quc gia.
Chng no h thng lu thng cn cng trng, n p o
mi ngun vn a phng. Qu thc, hu ht vn a phng
cui cng bin thnh vn quc t. Vn mang li nhiu li ch:
mt s tng ln v nng lc sn xut cng nh ci thin v
phng php sn xut v cc i mi khc; mt s tng ln v
ca ci cng nh cm gic chung v tin b. iu ny lm
cho cc nc ganh ua quyt lit thu ht v gi vn, v
nu h mun thnh cng h phi t cc i hi ca vn quc
t ln trn cc mc tiu x hi khc.
Bn thn h thng c sai lm su sc. Nhng dn xp kinh
t v chnh tr khng c th t. D pht trin ca nn kinh t
ton cu khng khp vi s pht trin ca mt x hi ton
cu. n v c bn ca i sng chnh tr v x hi vn l nh
nc quc gia. Nh nc quc gia c kh nng lm cc
dch v x hi no cho cng dn; nng lc lm nh vy
ca n b kh khn nh thu vn v p lc cnh tranh trn
cc th trng quc t lm suy yu. Nhng nh nc khng
lu m i vi t cch l ngun quyn lc ti thng; n ch
ngng l ngun ch yu v phc li. Trn nhiu phng din,
y l mt pht trin ng hoan nghnh: Mc thu cc nh
nc phc li l qu cao, v thng mi v di chuyn vn
t do hn mang li nhng li ch to ln; nhng nhiu nhu cu
x hi trc kia c nh nc quc gia bo m tr nn
khng tho mn.
Quan h gia trung tm ca h thng t bn ch ngha v
ngoi vi ca n cng bt bnh ng su sc. Cc nc trung
tm hng qu nhiu li th so vi ngoi vi. H khng ch
giu c hn m cng n nh hn v h iu khin c vn
mnh ring ca mnh. S hu nc ngoi v vn tc mt
tnh t tr ca cc nc ngoi vi v thng cn tr s pht
trin ca cc nh ch dn ch. Dng chy quc t v vn
chu nhng gin on thm khc. H qu l, kh bo ton vn
H thng T bn Ch ngha Ton cu
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169
ngoi vi hn trung tm, v cc nh t bn ngoi vi c
khuynh hng tch t vn nc ngoi. i khi dng chy
ngc vt qu di chuyn ra. S cch bit mang tnh tch lu,
v nhng bt li dn tch li cho cc nc ngoi vi do l thnh
vin ca h thng t bn ch ngha ton cu c th i khi
vt qu cc li ch.
Nhng rc ri thnh ra thm ch su hn. Cc nh ch
quc t gi gn ho bnh gia cc quc gia v php tr
trong phm vi cc nc khng xng ng vi nhim v. S
thiu cu trc nh ch ny chc c th cui cng gy ra s
tan r ca h thng t bn ch ngha ton cu. Nu c khi no
nn kinh t ton cu vp ng, p lc chnh tr c th x n tan
tnh. iu xy ra trc y. Kip trc ca h thng t
bn ch ngha ton cu, mt th k trc, b Chin tranh
Th gii I v cc cuc cch mng tip ph hu. Mc d ti
khng tin on chin tranh th gii, ti phi ch ra rng
nhng tin b cng ngh t khi tng kh nng ph hu
ca chng ta m khng c s ci thin tng ng v cc dn
xp an ninh.

Ph phn ca ti vi h thng t bn ch ngha ton cu
c lit vo hai tiu chnh. Mt lin quan n cc sai st
ca c ch th trng, ch yu l tnh bt n nh gn sn vo
cc th trng ti chnh quc t. Th hai lin quan n nhng
thiu st ca khu vc phi th trng, trc ht l tht bi ca
chnh tr mc quc gia v quc t. Nhng thiu st ca khu
vc phi th trng c nh hng nhiu hn cc sai st ca c
ch th trng.
Ba chng u trong Phn II (cc Chng 7-9) dnh ht
cho cc nhc im ca h thng t bn ch ngha ton cu,
ba chng cui (cc Chng 1-12) dnh cho to lp mt x
hi m ton cu. Chng ny cung cp phn tch chung v h
thng t bn ch ngha ton cu theo nh sng ca khung kh
l thuyt c xc lp trc y. Chng 8 phn tch khng
hong ti chnh 1997-1999. Chng 9 kho st cch h thng
t bn ch ngha i x vi s sp ca h thng Soviet.
GEORGE SOROS
___________________________________________________

170
Chng 10 xut mt kin trc ti chnh mi c th lm cho
h thng t bn ch ngha ton cu n nh v cng bng hn.
Chng 11 tho lun mt trong nhng th thch khc nghit
nht i mt vi chng ta thi im hin ti ca lch s - c
th l, s n nh ca vng Balkan. Nu chng ta khng th
khc phc vn ph hp vi cc nguyn l ca x hi
m, th chng c my ngha trong tho lun cc nguyn l
nh vy mt cch tru tng. Chng 12 chuyn t ci c
bit sang ci chung v tm cch pht trin mt cu trc chnh
tr ph hp vi x hi m ton cu.

iu phin mun vi thi im hin nay ca lch s l n
khng ng yn. Chng ta sng trong mt thi k bt cn
bng ng trong nhp thay i l rt nhanh. Thng
Mi Mt 1998, khi cun sch u ca ti a vo nh in, h
thng t bn ch ngha ton cu c v c nh th sp tan r
n ni. Hai nm sau khng hong 1997-1999 xem ra hu nh
ging mt k c xa xi. Khng phi khng thch ng, bi
vy, xem cc phn khc nhau c vit khi no. Chng ny
c xut x t mt bi bo vit thng Hai 1997 ng trong The
Atlantic Monthly, nn phn nhiu thi im trc khng
hong; cc on sau ca chng ny v Chng 8 c vit
u 1998 v c cp nht ng khi khng hong n gn
nh im vo ma thu 1998. Ti th t khng hong vo
khung cnh ca m hnh boom-bust ca ti, v cc s kin
khng dng nhng tin on ca ti, thng chng minh
chng l khng c cn c. Tuy vy, nhm gi tnh xc tht
ca phn tch ban u ti khng xt li cc tin on ca
mnh, tuy nhin ti cho php mnh a ra nhng xt li lm
sng t v trau chut cc l l ban u. Ni quan im ca ti
thay i ti ni nh th mt cch r rng, sao cho c gi
c th theo di s tin trin v cc tng ca ti. Ti
khng cm thy b rng buc tng t phn cn li ca
cun sch; nh th cc Chng 9-12 c xt li hon ton
hay cha ni dung hon ton mi.

H thng T bn Ch ngha Ton cu
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171

Mt ch Tru tng

Cu hi u tin cn phi tr li l liu c ci nh l mt h
thng t bn ch ngha ton cu hay khng. Cu tr li ca ti
l c, nhng n khng l mt th. Chng ta c mt xu hng
bm sinh vt ho hay nhn cch ho cc quan nim tru
tng - n c cy vo trong ngn ng ca chng ta - v lm
nh th c th c cc hu qu khng may. Cc khi nim tru
tng c cuc sng ring ca chng, v tht qu d ri
sang ng sai v tr thnh rt xa thc t; th m chng ta
khng th trnh ngh di dng tru tng, v thc ti ng l
qu phc tp c th hiu c hon ton. l l do v sao
cc tng li ng vai tr quan trng nh vy trong lch s -
quan trng hn l chng ta nhn ra.
Sau khi cnh bo chng vt ho, by gi ti s tin
hnh vic . H thng t bn ch ngha c th so snh vi
mt ch ton cu hn v tm ph ca n so vi bt k
ch trc y no. N thng tr ton b mt nn vn minh, v
nhng ngi ngoi bc tng ca n c coi l nhng k
man r. N khng phi l mt ch lnh th, v n thiu ch
quyn v mi cm by ca n; qu thc ch quyn quc gia l
hn ch chnh ln quyn lc v nh hng ca n. Cho nn
ch hu nh v hnh, khng c c cu hnh thc.
Php tng t ch l thch hp v h thng t bn ch
ngha ton cu cai tr nhng ngi thuc v n v khng d
khng tham gia. Hn na, n c mt trung tm v ngoi vi
ging mi ch khc, trung tm c li vi ph t ca
ngoi vi. Quan trng nht, ch ngha t bn ton cu biu l
cc xu hng bnh trng. Cn xa mi tm kim cn bng, n
khng khng xm chim. N khng th ngi yn chng no
cn c cc th trng v ngun lc cha c hp nht vo h
thng. Khi ti ni v bnh trng, ti khng ch mun ni
v mt a l m c phm vi v nh hng ca n. y l
mt cch ni khc rng cc gi tr th trng ang m rng
GEORGE SOROS
___________________________________________________

172

th lc ca n sang cc lnh vc hot ng m trc y c
cc gi tr phi th trng cai tr.
Mc d php tng t ch l ph hp, n cng nguy
him. Th thng tr ca cc gi tr th trng gy ra s
phn i mnh lit t cc gii khc nhau - dn tc ch ngha,
tn gio, vn ho, v tr thc. Ngi ta ni v vi loi ch
ngha quc. i vi tai ngi M v Chu u c th nghe
nh ph hoi, nhng quan trng l phi hiu c xc cm
ng sau n. Ch ngha t bn ton cu trng v cm thy c
v rt khc ngoi vi so vi trung tm.
Ngc vi th k th mi chn, khi ch ngha quc
bnh trng lnh th theo ngha en dng cc thuc a, h
thng t bn ton cu ng thi hu nh hon ton mang
tnh phi lnh th - thm ch ngoi lnh th. Cc lnh th c
cc nh nc cai tr, v nh nc thng gy tr ngi cho s
bnh trng ca ch ngha t bn. iu ny ng ngay c vi
Hoa K, nc t bn nht trong cc nc t bn. H qu l, s
hu vn c xu hng ra hi ngoi.
H thng t bn ton cu c bn cht ti chnh thun tu, v
khng ngc nhin chc nng m n phc v l kinh t: sn
xut, tiu th, v trao i hng ho v dch v. Quan trng
lu rng trao i bao hm khng ch hng ho v dch v
m c cc yu t sn xut na. Nh Marx v Engels ch ra
khong 150 nm trc, h thng t bn ch ngha bin t
ai, lao ng, v vn thnh hng ho.
38
Khi h thng bnh
trng, chc nng kinh t tr nn ch ng cuc sng ca
ngi dn v cc x hi. N thm nhp cc lnh vc trc kia
khng c coi l kinh t - vn ho, chnh tr, y hc, gio dc,
v lut hc. Tt nhin, nh hng qu mc ca tin chng c
g mi c. C l th d u tin l khi Moses tr v t Ni
Sinai v p tan cc tm bia l lut vo lc pht hin ra rng
ngi dn bt u tn sng Moloch
*
khi ng vng.

38
Vit on ny, ti b nh hng su sc bi Karl Polnyi, The Great Transformation
(Boston: Beacon Press, 1989).
*
Con b (bng) vng; ngha en l vua: Khi Moses gp c Cha trn ni Sinai v thy dn
chng gom vng c con b tn sng, ng tc gin p v cc tm bia L lut. Xem Kinh
thnh, Cu c & Tn c, NXB Tp. HCM, 1998; Xut hnh 32; tr. 164-165.
H thng T bn Ch ngha Ton cu
__________________________________________________



173
Bt chp bn cht phi lnh th ca n, h thng c mt
trung tm v ngoi vi. Mc d v tr chnh xc ca trung tm
l m h, v mc ch thc tin n c ng nht vi Hoa K
v mc t hn vi Chu u, v Nht Bn im tnh u
gia trung tm v ngoi vi. Trung tm l nh cung cp vn;
ngoi vi l ngi s dng vn. Trung tm cng l ngi nh
hng, nh i mi, v phng thanh ton b tr cho thng tin.
c im quan trng nht ca trung tm l n iu khin cc
chnh sch kinh t ca ring mnh v nm trong tay vn mnh
kinh t ca cc nc ngoi vi. iu ny c th ng ngay c
nu gi nh khng c nhng khc bit ln v ca ci v pht
trin gia trung tm v ngoi vi. Th d, trong H thng Tin
t Chu u, c l trung tm; sau thng nht nc c,
Bundesbank tng li sut v cc l do trong nc v y
nho cc nc ngoi vi vo suy thoi. Nhng tt nhin trong
ni b h thng t bn ton cu c nhng khc bit khng l
v ca ci v pht trin.


Ch Hin thi

H thng t bn quc t khng phi mi hay thm ch mi l.
Tin s ca n truy v n tn cc quc gia th v Lin
minh Hanseatic, trong cc thc th chnh tr khc nhau
c lin kt vi nhau bi cc rng buc thng mi v ti
chnh. Ch ngha t bn tr nn ln t trong th k th mi
chn v duy tr nh th n khi n b ph v bi Chin tranh
Th gii I. Ch thnh hnh hin nay c th c vi c im
mi l lm cho n khc cc tin kip trc y. Tc truyn
thng l mt nt, song ng ng l n mi l n u: S xut
hin ca ng st, in tn, v in thoi biu hin mt s
tng tc ln th k mi chn nh truyn thng my tnh
ngy nay. ng l cch mng thng tin c nhng nt c sc
v song, nhng cch mng giao thng th k mi chn
cng vy. Nhn tng th, th, ch hin thi l kh ging ch
GEORGE SOROS
___________________________________________________

174
thnh hnh mt trm nm trc y, mc d n khc c
bn ch thnh hnh ng nm mi nm trc y.
Nt khu bit ca h thng t bn ton cu l di chuyn vn
t do. Trao i hng ho v dch v l cha to ra mt
nn kinh t ton cu; cc yu t sn xut cng phi c th trao
i c. t ai v cc ti nguyn thin nhin khc khng
dch chuyn c, v di chuyn dn s l kh; nh th tnh di
ng ca vn, thng tin, v ti kinh doanh (entrepreneurship)
chu trch nhim v hi nhp kinh t.
V vn ti chnh cn di ng hn u t vt cht, n chim
mt v tr c n: N c th trnh xa cc nc m n phi chu
cc loi thu v qui ch phin h. Mt khi mt nh my c
xy dng, kh di chuyn. ng l, cc cng ti xuyn quc
gia c s linh hot v nh gi ni b v c th s dng p lc
thi im h quyt nh u t, nhng tnh linh hot ca h
khng so c vi quyn t do la chn m cc nh u t
chng khon quc t c hng. Di cc c hi u t sn
c cng c nng cao do trung tm ca nn kinh t ton
cu hn l ngoi vi. Tt c cc yu t ny kt hp li thu
ht vn vo cc trung tm ti chnh v phn b n thng qua
cc th trng ti chnh. l l do v sao ngy nay cc th
trng ti chnh ng mt vai tr thng tr n vy trn th
gii v v sao nh hng ca chng tng nhanh n vy.
Thc ra, lun chuyn vn t do l mt hin tng tng i
mi. Vo cui Chin tranh Th gii II, cc nn kinh t ch
yu vn mang tnh cht quc gia, thng mi quc t trong
thi k suy sp, v c u t trc tip v cc giao dch ti
chnh trn thc t ngng tr. Cc nh ch Bretton Woods
Qu Tin t Quc t (IMF) v Ngn hng Th gii (WB)
c d kin lm cho thng mi quc t c th trong mt
th gii khng c lun chuyn vn quc t. Ngn hng Th
gii c d kin b cho thiu u t trc tip, IMF b
cho thiu tn dng ti chnh b cho mt cn i thng
mi. Vn quc t trong cc nc chm pht trin ch yu
tham gia vo khai thc ti nguyn thin nhin, v cc nc,
khng khuyn khch u t quc t, c nhiu kh nng chim
H thng T bn Ch ngha Ton cu
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175
ot n. Th d, cng ti Anglo-Iranian Oil b quc hu ho
nm 1951 (tip theo l cc ln sng quc hu ho khc v
thit lp T chc cc Nc Xut Du [OPEC] nm 1973).
Quc hu ho cc ngnh chin lc l vn trng tm
c Chu u na. Hu ht u t cc nc chm pht trin
l cc thng v gia chnh ph v chnh ph, ging nh
s u phng [lc] xu s ca Anh Chu Phi.
Sau chin tranh, u tin thng mi quc t phc hi, tip
n l u t trc tip. Cc hng M di sang Chu u, ri
sang phn cn li ca th gii. Cc cng ti c xut x cc
nc khc bt kp mun hn. Nhiu ngnh - t, ho cht,
my tnh - b thng tr bi cc cng ti a quc gia. Cc th
trng ti chnh quc t pht trin chm hn v nhiu ng
tin khng chuyn i c hon ton v nhiu nc duy
tr kim sot giao dch vn. Kim sot vn ch c tho d
dn dn; Vng quc Anh n c chnh thc xo b ch
vo 1979.
Khi ti bt u kinh doanh London 1953, cc th trng
ti chnh v cc ngn hng b iu tit ngt ngho trn c s
quc gia, v h thng t gi hi oi c nh thnh hnh vi
nhiu hn ch v lun chuyn vn. c mt th trng v
ng bng chuyn loi v la tin cc- t gi hi oi
c bit p dng cho cc ti khon vn. Sau khi ti di sang
Hoa K nm 1956, bun bn quc t v chng khon c t
do ho dn dn. Vi s hnh thnh Th trng Chung, cc nh
u t Hoa K bt u mua cc chng khon Chu u, nhng
cng vic k ton ca cc cng ti lin quan v cc dn xp
thanh ton cn nhiu thiu st, tnh hnh khng khc my mt
s th trng mi ni hin nay, tr cc nh phn tch v nhng
ngi mua bn c k nng km hn. l khi u ca s
nghip ti chnh ca ti: Ti l mt ng vua cht x m.
V mi n 1963 Tng thng M John F. Kennedy xut ci
gi l thu lm ngang bng i vi cc nh u t M mua cc
c phiu nc ngoi; k ban hnh thnh lut nm 1964, trn
thc tin n ui ti ra khi kinh doanh.

GEORGE SOROS
___________________________________________________

176
Cc th trng ti chnh ton cu bt u ni ln vo cc
nm 1970. Cc nc sn xut du tp hp li vi nhau di
OPEC v tng gi du, ln u vo 1973 t 1,90 $ ln 9,76 $
mt thng, sau vo 1979 (p li cc s kin chnh tr
Iran v Irc) t 12,70 $ ln 28,76 $ mt thng. Cc nc xut
khu du t ngt c thng d ln, cn cc nc nhp khu
phi ti tr cc khon thm ht ln. Ngi ta cc ngn
hng thng mi, vi s c v ca cc chnh ph Phng Ty
hu trng, quay vng tin . Eurodollar c ngh ra, v
cc th trng hi ngoi ln pht trin. Cc chnh ph bt
u gim thu v a ra cc nhng b khc li ko vn
quay v nc. Tr tru thay cc bin php ny li cho vn hi
ngoi kh nng vn ng ln hn. Boom cho vay quc t
chm dt vi mt bust nm 1982, nhng n lc quyn t
do lun chuyn vn ti chnh c xc lp chc.
S pht trin ca cc th trng ti chnh quc t c y
mnh nhiu khong 1980 khi Margaret Thatcher v Ronald
Reagan ln nm quyn vi mt chng trnh loi nh nc ra
khi nn kinh t v cho php c ch th trng lm cng vic
ca mnh. iu ny c ngha l p t k lut tin t kht khe,
c tc ng ban u nhn chm th gii vo suy thoi v
y nhanh khng hong n quc t 1982. Nn kinh t th gii
mt dm ba nm phc hi - M Latin h ni v mt
thp nin b mt- nhng n phc hi. T nn kinh t
ton cu c mt thi k di bnh trng hu nh lin tc.
Bt chp cc cuc khng hong c chu k, s pht trin ca
cc th trng vn quc t c tng tc n mt im m
chng c th c m t l tht s ton cu. Bin ng v t
gi hi oi, li sut, v gi c phiu cc nc khc nhau c
mi lin h mt thit vi nhau. kha cnh ny, c im ca
cc th trng ti chnh thay i khin khng cn nhn ra
c na sut bn mi lm nm m ti dnh dng vi chng.
Ch t bn ch ngha hin thi bt u t khi no? l
cc nm 1970, khi th trng hi ngoi v Eurodollar c
thit lp? l khong 1980, khi Thatcher v Reagan ln
nm quyn? Hay l nm 1989, khi ch Soviet tan r v ch
H thng T bn Ch ngha Ton cu
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177

ngha t bn tr nn tht s ton cu? Ti chn 1980, v l
khi thuyt th trng chnh thng tr thnh tn iu thng tr
trung tm.
Ngy nay nng lc ca nh nc cung cp phc li cho cc
cng dn ca mnh b suy yu nghim trng bi tnh di ng
ca vn. Cc nc tu chnh ch an sinh x hi v vic
lm ca mnh Hoa K v Vng quc Anh ng u trong
s h - phn thnh v kinh t, cn cc nc khc tm cch
duy tr chng minh ho bi Php v c - tt hu.
39

Trit ph nh nc phc li l mt hin tng tng i
mi, v nh hng y ca n vn cn cha cm thy. T
cui Chin tranh Th gii II, phn ca nh nc trong GNP
cc nc cng nghip tnh nh mt nhm hu nh tng gp
i.
40
Ch sau 1980 xu th mi i hng. L th l, phn nh
nc trong GNP khng gim mt cch cm nhn c. Ci
xy ra thay vo l thu trn vn v vic lm gim
xung cn cc dng khc ca thu (c bit ln tiu dng)
tip tc nhy cc ln. Ni cch khc, gnh nng thu c
chuyn t nhng ngi ch vn sang ngi tiu dng, t cc
ngi giu sang ngi ngho v tng lp trung lu. hon
ton khng phi l ci c ha hn, nhng khng th ni
chng l cc hu qu khng ch v chnh xc l ci
nhng ngi theo thuyt th trng chnh thng d nh.


Mt Ch Cha y

Mc d chng ta c th m t ch ngha t bn ton cu nh
mt ch , n l mt ch cha y : N ch cai tr hot
ng kinh t, cho d hot ng ny chim a v cao hn
nhng th khc; cc chc nng chnh tr v x hi vn da
vo nh nc ch quyn.

39
Khng ng vi chm sc sc kho. Php ng u, Vng quc Anh th mi tm, v
Hoa K th ba mi by.
40
Dani Rodrik, Has Globalization Gone Too Far? (Washington, D. C.: Institute for
International Economics, 1997).
GEORGE SOROS
___________________________________________________

178
Cn cn li th cho n nay nghing v pha vn ti
chnh n mc thng ni rng cc cng ti a quc gia v cc
th trng ti chnh quc t bng cch no y thay th ch
quyn quc gia. Khng phi vy. Cc quc gia vn gi ch
quyn ca mnh v s dng quyn lc php l v thc thi m
chng c nhn hay cng ti no c th hi vng c. Nhng ngy
ca Cng ti ng n v Cng ti Vnh Hudson vnh vin
qua i. C mt s xm ln ch quyn, tuy vy, t nh hn.
Mc d cc chnh ph vn gi quyn can thip vo nn
kinh t, chng ngy cng tu thuc vo cc lc lng cnh
tranh ton cu. Nu mt chnh ph p t cc iu kin bt li
cho vn, th vn s i ni khc. Ngc li nu mt chnh ph
gi lng thp v cung cp nhng khuyn khch cho cc
doanh nghip u i n c th nui dng s tch t vn. Nh
th h thng t bn ton cu gm nhiu quc gia c ch
quyn, mi quc gia c chnh sch ring ca mnh, nhng u
l thuc vo cnh tranh quc t khng ch v thng mi m
c v vn. y l mt trong cc c im lm cho h thng
phc tp n vy: Mc d chng ta c th nhn din mt ch
ton cu v cc vn kinh t v ti chnh, khng c ch
ton cu v chnh tr; mi quc gia duy tr ch ring ca
mnh. Trong cc nn dn ch chn mui, quyn thc thi nm
di s kim sot thng dn, nhng cc phn khc ca th
gii th khng phi vy.
Chng c g mi trong s kt hp ca mt nn kinh t ton
cu vi nhng dn xp chnh tr da trn ch quyn quc gia.
Ht vy c p dng mt trm nm trc. S khc bit l
mt th k tri qua v c cc quc gia ln cc th trng
thay i. Th d, mt th k trc nh nc ch cung cp
cc dch v x hi s ng; sau Chin tranh Th gii II t
tng nh nc phc li bn r khp Phng Ty, v mt
s nc thy kh b n. Mt th k trc cc thuc a
gia tng nhanh chng; ngy nay ch ngha thc dn l khng
th chp nhn c. Hn na, chng ta c mt trm nm
nhn li. Chng ta c th thy ch t bn ch ngha ton
cu trc y kt thc trong chin tranh th gii, tip theo
H thng T bn Ch ngha Ton cu
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179
l cc cuc cch mng, cc ch c ti, v mt cuc chin
tranh th gii na. Liu chng ta c th lm tt hn?
Lun trung tm ca cun sch ny l phin bn hin thi
ca ch ngha t bn ton cu l mt dng cha hon chnh v
b mo m ca x hi m ton cu. Nhng thiu st a phn
l nhng dn xp chnh tr v x hi hn l pha kinh t.
Thc vy, thiu st ch yu ca ch ngha t bn ton cu l
n qu thin v mt bn: N qu nhn mnh n theo ui li
nhun v thnh cng kinh t v sao nhng nhng cn nhc x
hi v chnh tr. iu ny c bit ng trong v i quc t.
C mt nim tin rng ri l ch ngha t bn c lin kt
ra sao vi dn ch trong chnh tr. S thc l cc nc
trung tm hin nay l dn ch, nhng khng ng vy cho
mi nc ngoi vi. Thc ra, nhiu ngi cho rng mt loi
c ti no l cn thit to pht trin kinh t. Pht trin
i hi tch t vn, tch t t bn n lt n cn n lng
thp v t l tit kim cao. Mt ch chuyn quyn c kh
nng p t mun ca n ln ngi dn c th thun li cho
t bn hn l mt ch dn ch d b c tri sai khin.
Ly Chu , qu hng ca cc trng hp pht trin kinh
t thnh cng nht gn y, lm th d. Di m hnh chu,
bn thn nh nc lin minh vi gii kinh doanh a
phng v gip h tch t t bn. Chin lc cn n s lnh
o ca chnh ph v chnh sch cng nghip, n mt mc
cao v n by ti chnh, v mc bo h no cho nn
kinh t ni a, cng nh kh nng kim sot lng. Nht Bn
i tin phong vi chin lc ny, chin lc c li
ca cc nh ch dn ch do s chim ng hu chin ca
Hoa K a vo. Hn Quc c bt chc Nht Bn mt
cch m qung nhng khng c cc nh ch dn ch. Chnh
sch c thc hin bi c ti qun s thng tr mt nhm
nh cc conglomerate (chaebol). S kim tra v cn i, ci
thnh hnh Nht Bn, nh th thiu ( Hn Quc). Ti
Indonesia, c lin minh tng t gia qun i v tng lp
kinh doanh ch yu l ngi Hoa. Singapore, bn thn nh
nc tr thnh mt nh t bn bng cch lp nn cc qu u
GEORGE SOROS
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180
t c qun l tt v rt thnh cng. Ti Malaysia, ng cm
quyn cn nhc ng h cc gii kinh doanh vi li ch cho
sc tc ngi Malay a s. Thi Lan nhng dn xp chnh
tr l qu kh cho ngi ngoi c th hiu: Qun i an
xen vo kinh doanh v ti chnh dnh vo bu c l hai yu
im rnh rnh. Ring Hng Kng l khng c mi quan h
lon lun gia chnh ph v kinh doanh nh a v thuc a
ca n v do c php tr nghim ngt. i Loan cng ni bt
do hon tt thnh cng qu t mt ch p bc sang
mt ch dn ch chnh tr.
Ngi ta thng l l rng cc ch chuyn quyn cui
cng dn n s pht trin ca cc nh ch dn ch. L l c
gi tr no : Mt tng lp trung lu l rt c ch to ra
cc ch dn ch. Nhng cc cuc khng hong ti chnh
nh k lm kh cc nc ngoi vi thng lm chm s pht
trin ca tng lp trung lu. l ci din ra ng Nam
v Nga nh hu qu ca khng hong 1997-1999. Hn
na, khng ng rng s thnh vng kinh t nht thit dn
n s tin ho ca cc quyn t do dn ch. Cc nh cm
quyn min cng bung khi quyn lc ca mnh - h
thng phi b thc p. Th d, Lee Kwan Yu ca Singapore
tr nn cng ln ting hn trong xut cc gi tr ca con
ng chu sau cc thp k thnh vng.
C mt kh khn cn bn hn na vi l l rng ch ngha
t bn dn ti nn dn ch. Cc lc lng trong ni b h
thng t bn ton cu c th y cc nc n dn ch l kh
yu. Cc ngn hng quc t v cc cng ti a quc gia thng
cm thy thoi mi hn vi mt ch chuyn quyn mnh
hn l mt ch dn ch yu. Vn nc ngoi tr thnh
mt ngun tham nhng v rng ct chnh ca ch c ti,
c bit nhng ni dnh dng n ti nguyn thin nhin
nh du hay kim cng.
C l lc hiu nghim nht cho dn ch l t do lu chuyn
thng tin, lm cho vic chnh ph a thng tin sai cho ngi
dn tr nn kh khn. Nhng t do thng tin khng c
nh gi qu cao. Malaysia, th d, ch thng tr cc
H thng T bn Ch ngha Ton cu
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181
phng tin thng tin i chng mc cho php Th
tng Mahathir Mohammed a c tnh c bit ring ca
mnh ln cc s kin m khng b trng pht. Thng tin cn b
hn ch hn Trung Quc, ni chnh ph kim sot thm ch
c Internet. Trong bt c trng hp no, lu chuyn thng
tin t do s khng nht thit y ngi dn n dn ch, c
bit khi ngi dn sng trong cc nn dn ch khng tin vo
dn ch nh mt nguyn l ph qut.
Ni tht, mi quan h gia ch ngha t bn v dn ch gii
nht l rt mong manh. Th m, ch ngha t bn li cn n
cc nh ch dn ch kim ch v hiu chnh nhng thi
qu ca n. Chu u th k th mi chn, nhng tin on
khc lit ca Tuyn ngn Cng sn thc ra b s m rng
quyn bu c chnh tr lm cho v hiu. V ngy nay c cc
ch chuyn quyn v cc nh nc ang tan r to thnh
cc mi e do mnh i vi ho bnh v thnh vng, c v
mt ni b ln quc t.


Vai tr ca Tin

Mt h thng kinh t ton cu khng khp vi mt h thng
chnh tr ton cu l kh phn tch, c bit di nh sng
ca mi quan h quanh co gia ch ngha t bn v dn ch.
Nhim v c n gin ho bi s thc rng c mt nguyn
l thng nht trong h thng t bn ton cu: tin. Tin khng
phi l mt nguyn l c a vo v mc ch n gin ho;
n tht s chi phi. Ni v cc nguyn l th trng t do c
th lm ln ln vn , v tin c th c cp nht bng cc
cch khc cnh tranh; nhng cui cng tt c u qui li v li
nhun v ca ci c o bng tin.
Bt k s tm hiu no v h thng t bn ton cu phi bt
u vi vai tr m tin ng trong . Cc sch gio khoa ni
rng tin c ba chc nng chnh: n v thanh ton, phng
tin trao i, v lu tr gi tr. Hai chc nng u c hiu
r; c s nghi ng no v chc nng th ba. Theo din gii
GEORGE SOROS
___________________________________________________

182
c in, tin l cng c cho mc ch, khng phi l bn thn
mc ch; n i din cho gi tr trao i, khng cho gi tr
ni ti. Tc l, gi tr ca tin ph thuc vo gi tr ca hng
ho v dch v m v n c th c trao i. Nhng ci g
l cc gi tr ni ti m cc hot ng kinh t c cho l
phng s? Cc nh kinh t hc th k mi chn ni v tnh
tho dng, nhng khi nim khng qua c kho st ph
phn. Rt cuc cc nh kinh t quyt nh l khng cn gii
quyt vn - h coi gi tr ca tc nhn kinh t l cho trc.
S thch ca h c biu din dng cc ng bng
quan, v cc ng bng quan c th dng xc nh gi.
Phin ni trong th gii thc cc gi tr khng c cho
trc. Trong mt nn kinh t, ngi dn t do la chn,
nhng h khng nht thit bit ci h mun. Trong tnh hnh
bin i nhanh, khi truyn thng mt nh hng v ngi dn
c gi t mi pha, cc gi tr trao i rt c th thay th
cho cc gi tr ni ti. Tin c cc c tnh no m gi tr
ni ti thiu: N c mt mu s chung, n c th lng ho,
v n hu nh u c ngi khc coi trng. Cc c im
ny l ci lm cho tin t cch l phng tin trao i -
song khng nht thit nh mc tiu cui cng. Hu ht ch li
gn cho tin sinh ra t chi tiu n; kha cnh ny tin c
dng nh mt cng c cho mc ch. Nhng tin cng c th
dng ct tr gi tr. chng mc m nhng ngi khc
mun c tin v sn sng lm hu nh mi th kim c
n, tin l quyn lc, v quyn lc c th l mt mc ch t
thn. Nhng ngi k nghip c th khng bit lm g vi tin
ca h, song ch t h bit rng nhng ngi khc thm mun
thnh cng ca h, v ca ci cho h mt thc v quyn lc.
iu ny c th l gi cho h tip tc mi mi ngay c
thiu bt k ng c no khc. Nhng ngi gi vng n c
quyn lc v nh hng nht trong h thng t bn.
Khng i no ti coi nh li ch ca ca ci; nhng lm
cho tch lu ca ci l mc tiu cui cng b qua nhiu kha
cnh khc ca s tn ti m chng cng ng xem xt, c
bit nu nhu cu vt cht cho tn ti c tho mn. Ti
H thng T bn Ch ngha Ton cu
__________________________________________________



183
khng th nu r cc kha cnh khc l g; chnh do bn cht
ca cc gi tr ni ti m chng khng th c qui v mt
mu s chung. Con ngi c t duy c quyn quyt nh cho
chnh mnh - l mt c n h c hng mt khi h
tho mn cc nhu cu tn ti. Nhng thay cho hng th xa x
chng ta li i trch ng ca mnh lm trm trng cuc
u tranh v tn ti.
H thng t bn nhn mnh cnh tranh v o thnh cng
bng tin bc. Cc gi tr tin bc chim ot vai tr ca
cc gi tr thc cht, v cc th trng tr nn thng tr cc
lnh vc tn ti m ng ra chng khng thuc v. Lut v y
hc, chnh tr, gio dc, khoa hc, ngh thut, thm ch quan
h c nhn thnh tu hay phm cht cn c nh gi v
mc ch ring ca chng li c chuyn i ra bng tin;
chng c nh gi bng tin chng kim c hn l bng
cng trng thc cht ca chng.
Khng o su vn thm na, ti s coi n nh mt s
thc rng gi tr p o trong h thng t bn ton cu l theo
ui tin. Ti c th lm vy v c cc tc nhn kinh t m
mc ch duy nht ca h l kim tin, v h thng tr i
sng kinh t hin nay nh cha tng bao gi c trc y. Ti
ni v cc cng ti c cng chng s hu. Cc cng ti ny
c cc nh chuyn nghip qun l nhng ngi p dng cc
k thut qun l hin i vi mt mc tiu duy nht l ti a
ho li nhun. Cc k thut ny c th p dng ph bin cho
mi lnh vc v thc p cc nh qun l cng ti mua v bn
cc doanh nghip nh cc nh qun l chng khon mua v
bn c phiu. Cc cng ti, n lt n, li ch yu do cc nh
qun l chng khon s hu m mc ch duy nht ca h
trong s hu c phiu l kim tin.
Trong l thuyt cnh tranh hon ho, hng l mt thc th
ti a ho li nhun, nhng trong thc tin doanh nghip
khng lun c qun l vi duy nht mc ch trong u.
Cc ch t nhn thng c cc mc ch khc hng dn:
t ho v hng ho v dch v m h sn xut; cng n vic
lm cho gia nh v bn b; cc nguyn l tn gio, o c
GEORGE SOROS
___________________________________________________

184
hay tri o c; quyn lc v uy tn. Ngay c cc cng ti bn
c phiu cng khai thng c cc nh qun l cm thy c
phng v tt c cc ng c khc: bng lc, li sng,
quyn lc, c l c kht vng v tha hay dn tc ch ngha.
Cc nh qun l ca cc cng ti a quc gia ln ca c theo
truyn thng coi mnh chu n cng nhn, cng chng cng
nh cc c ng. Cc nh qun l Nht theo ui th phn, v
mi quan h thng c u tin hn li nhun. Hn Quc a
th d Nht n thi qu.
Tuy nhin, trong h thng t bn ton cu hin nay c s
dch chuyn r rt ng h ng x ti a ho li nhun v s
tng cng tng ng ca p lc cnh tranh. Ch ca cc
doanh nghip t nhn hng quyn rng ri hn cc nh qun
l cng ti; nhng do cc th trng tr nn ton cu, cc cng
ti t nhn th bt li v duy tr hay ginh c th phn; cc
cng ti cn huy ng vn t cc c ng ngoi khai thc
cc c hi do ton cu ho mang li. Kt qu l, cc cng ti
do cng chng nm gi tr nn thng tr tnh hnh, v chng
ngy cng tr nn chuyn tm theo ui li nhun.
Hoa K, cc c ng tr nn qu quyt hn i vi ban
qun l. Thnh cng c o bng thnh tch ngn hn, v cc
nh qun l c thng bng quyn chn c phiu hn l
bng th lao. Nhng ngi tht bi b thay th nhanh chng
hn. Chu u, cc cng ti thng khng nhn mnh n
li nhun, c trong hnh nh ln trong li ch ca h trc
cng chng. Li nhun cao hn c xu hng gy ra lng v
i hi thu cao hn, v c cho l khng nn thu ht s
ch n tnh sinh li ca mnh. Nhng p lc cnh tranh
ton cu lm nh i hi v lng v gim kh nng p t
thu ca nh nc; ngc li, nhu cu bnh trng ti chnh
tr nn thc bch hn. Kt qu l, thi ca cc nh qun l
tri qua s bin i phi thng, v cc cng ti a quc gia
Chu u tr nn ging nh cc cng ti a quc gia ca M.
Vic to ra Lin minh Chu u nh mt th trng duy
nht vi mt ng tin duy nht lm tng cuc tranh cp
th phn. Gi c phiu tr nn quan trng hn nhiu, c
H thng T bn Ch ngha Ton cu
__________________________________________________



185
huy ng vn ln nh cng c thn tnh (hoc trong trng
hp gi c phiu thp, nh s cm d b thn tnh). Cc
mc tiu x hi, nh to cng n vic lm, phi ngi ch ng
sau. Cnh tranh buc hp nht, gim qui m (downsizing),
v chuyn sn xut ra nc ngoi. y l nhng yu t quan
trng trong mc tht nghip cao ko di Chu u.
Cho nn du xc nhn phm cht ca dng hin thi ca
ch ngha t bn ton cu - c im lm cho n khc cc
phin bn trc y - l tnh thnh cng trn khp ca n: s
tng cng ca ng c li nhun v s ngm su ca n vo
cc lnh vc m trc y do cc cn nhc khc chi phi. Cc
gi tr phi tin t thng ng mt vai tr ln hn trong
cuc sng con ngi; c bit, vn ho v cc ngh c cho
l b chi phi bi cc gi tr vn ho v ngh nghip v khng
to thnh cng vic kinh doanh. Nn mng gia nh v s sinh
sn c coi l nhiu hn ca ci; ch ngha yu nc v
tn gio thng hin ra to ln hn. hiu ch t bn
ch ngha hin thi khc th no vi cc ch trc y ta
phi tha nhn vai tr tng ln ca tin nh thc o. Khng
ngoa khi ni rng tin ch ng cuc sng ca con ngi nh
cha tng bao gi. Xu hng lun lun hin din, nhng
mi y theo ui li nhun a n kt lun logic ca n.
V bt c nguyn l no tr nn nguy him hn khi n khng
cn c lm du bi nhng cn nhc khc.


Tn dng nh mt Ngun Bt n nh

Tin gn mt thit vi tn dng, nhng vai tr ca tn dng
khng c hiu tht r. Tn dng l mt hin tng phn
thn trong tnh sn c ca tn dng ph thuc vo gi tr
th chp v gi tr ti sn th chp li b nh hng bi tnh
sn c ca tn dng. iu ny c bit ng vi bt ng sn,
mt dng th chp c a chung. Cc ngn hng thng
sn lng cho vay da vo bt ng sn m khng trng cy
vo ngi i vay, v bin s chnh trong gi tr ca bt ng
GEORGE SOROS
___________________________________________________

186
sn l lng tin m ngn hng sn lng cho vay da vo n.
C th c v l, quan h phn thn khng c nhn ra trong
l thuyt, v thng b qun i trong thc tin. Ngnh xy
dng kht ting v c tnh boom-bust ca n, v sau mi t
suy sp (bust) cc nh qun l ngn hng tr nn rt thn trng
v quyt tm khng bao gi t phi ra cho ri ro na. Nhng
khi h y kh nng tin mt v rt cn a tin vo hot
ng, mt chu k mi li bt u.
Cng hnh mu c th quan st c trong cho vay quc
t: Kh nng tr c n ca cc nc i vay c ch quyn
c o bng cc t l no - n nh phn trm ca GNP,
dch v n nh phn trm ca xut khu, v cc t l tng t.
Cc s o ny mang tnh phn thn v s thnh vng ca
nc i vay ph thuc vo kh nng i vay ca n. Li mt
ln na, quan h phn thn thng b b qua. l iu
xy ra trong boom cho vay quc t ln ca cc nm 1970: Sau
khng hong 1982, c th ngh rng vic cho vay trn lan s
chng bao gi ti din. Th m n vn xy ra, Mexico nm
1994 v ln na Hn Quc, Nga, v cc ni khc nm 1997.
Hu ht cc nh l thuyt kinh t khng nhn ra tnh phn
thn. H tm cch xc lp cc iu kin cn bng, v tnh phn
thn l mt ngun bt cn bng. John Maynard Keynes
thc rt nhiu v cc hin tng phn thn - ng m t cc th
trng ti chnh nh mt cuc ua sc p ni ngi ta phi
phn on xem nhng ngi khc phn on ra sao v nhng
ngi khc phn on ra sao v bn thn kim c bn tin
nh mt nh u c - nhng ngay c ng vn trnh by l
thuyt ca mnh bng khi nim cn bng lm cho n c
th chp nhn c v mt hc thut.
Cch c a thch trnh tnh phn thn c hu trong tn
dng l tp trung vo cung tin. N c th o c, v c
cho l phn nh cc iu kin tn dng. Bng cch ny cc
hin tng phn thn gn vi m rng v thu hp tn dng c
th b khng c tnh n. Tuy nhin, mt cung tin n nh
khng to ra mt nn kinh t n nh. Thi qu c th t hiu
chnh - nhng vi ci gi no? Trong th k mi chn, khi
H thng T bn Ch ngha Ton cu
__________________________________________________



187
cung tin c cc qui tc v t ca bn v vng quc t iu
tit, s hong lon tn ph ko theo suy thoi kinh t.
Trong i Suy thoi ca cc nm 1930 Keynes khng
tin ch ngha trng tin v thay n bng mt l thuyt tha
nhn tm quan trng ca tn dng. n thuc ca ng cha
thiu pht l chi tiu ca chnh ph dn n s ni ln ca cc
khu vc nh nc phng ln v cc xu hng lm pht. Sau
ci cht ca ng, cch tip cn ca ng khng cn c a
chung. (Gi nh Keynes cn sng, chc c l ng thay
n thuc ca mnh). Duy tr tnh n nh tin t li tr thnh
mc tiu hng u. iu ny dn n s ti pht minh ra l
thuyt trng tin bi Milton Friedman. Nhng l thuyt ca
Friedman c sai st, v n b qua yu t phn thn trong m
rng v thu hp tn dng.
Trn thc tin, chnh sch tin t t gia cc nm 1980
hot ng kh tt, nhng ch yu bng cch b qua l thuyt
trng tin. Cc ngn hng trung ng khng da ch ring -
hoc thm ch ch yu vo cc o lng v cung tin m
cng tnh n cc yu t khc nhau khc (bao gm tnh h hi
phi l ca cc th trng) trong quyt nh duy tr tnh n nh
tin t th no. Ngn hng trung ng c c duy tr o
tng c ch dn bi cc tng lng tin t, nhng nhng
ngi tham gia th trng hc c t ng x ca n rng
iu ny phn nhiu l mt huyn thoi. Ngc li, Cc D
tr Lin bang theo thuyt bt kh tri hn v cng khai th
nhn rng chnh sch tin t l vn v phn xt. Cc tuyn
b ca Ch tch Cc D tr Lin bang Alan Greenspan l cc
bi tp v tnh phn thn v ging nh cc li sm ca nh
tin tri Delphic. Khi ch tch ca mt ban quc hi cm n
ng do m t tnh tnh kinh t rt r rng, Greenspan tr
li, Th th ti e l ti b hiu lm.
Tn dng ng mt vai tr quan trng trong tng trng
kinh t. Kh nng c th vay lm tng rt nhiu tnh sinh li
ca cc khon u t. Mt khon u t cng c th da vo
n by (ti chnh), th sut li tc cng cao - vi iu kin
chi ph tin t nh nhau. Chi ph v tnh sn c ca tn dng
GEORGE SOROS
___________________________________________________

188

nh th tr thnh cc yu t quan trng nh hng n mc
hot ng kinh t. Cn c vo tnh phn thn ca n, tn dng
khng biu l xu hng ti cn bng; thc vy n c l l
nhn t quan trng nht quyt nh hnh th bt i xng ca
chu k boom-bust. C th c cc nhn t khc tham gia, nhng
chnh thu hp tn dng l ci lm cho bust t ngt hn nhiu
boom i trc n. Khi buc phi thanh l cc khon n, bn
ti sn th chp y gi tr ca ti sn th chp xung, gy ra
mt qu trnh t-tng cng b nn li v mt thi gian hn
pha m rng nhiu. iu ny ng bt lun tn dng c cc
ngn hng hay cc th trng ti chnh cung cp v bt lun
vic vay da vo chng khon hay cc ti sn vt cht.
Tn dng quc t c bit bt n nh v n khng c
iu tit tt nh tn dng ni a cc nc kinh t pht trin.
K t khi ch ngha t bn ra i, tng c cc khng hong
ti chnh c chu k, thng vi cc hu qu tn khc. ngn
chn s ti din, cc ngn hng v th trng ti chnh phi b
iu tit, nhng cc qui ch thng gii quyt khng hong
va qua ch khng phi ci k tip, cho nn mi cuc khng
hong mi dn n mt kt cu ti chnh mi. l cch m
hot ng ngn hng trung ng, gim st hot ng ngn
hng, v gim st cc th trng ti chnh tin ho n
trng thi rt tinh t hin thi.
Nhng nhng s pht trin nh vy khng mang tnh tuyn
tnh. S sp 1929 v s tht bi thip theo ca h thng
ngn hng Hoa K dn n mi trng iu tit hn ch i
vi cc ngn hng M cng nh ca th trng c phiu. Sau
Chin tranh Th gii II, mt qu trnh ci m hn bt u,
u tin rt chm nhng tng tc dn dn. V d l s tch
bit gia cc ngn hng v cc nh ch ti chnh khc c
Lut Glass-Streagal p t khng c bi b hng thp k,
qui ch ca c cc ngn hng v th trng ti chnh ngy
cng c ni lng.
41



41
Lut Glass-Steagal cui cng c bi b vo 12-11-1999.
H thng T bn Ch ngha Ton cu
__________________________________________________



189
Phi iu tit v ton cu ho cc th trng ti chnh xy
ra mt cch phn thn mt thit vi nhau. Hu ht cc qui ch
c phm vi quc gia, cho nn ton cu ho cc th trng c
ngha l t iu tit hn v ngc li. Nhng khng phi l
con ng mt chiu. Ngay khi cc qui ch quc gia c ni
lng, cc qui ch quc t c a vo. Hai nh ch Bretton
Wood, IMF v Ngn hng Th gii, thch ng vi thay i
v tr nn tch cc hn nh nhng ngi kim sot ton cu.
Cc nh chc trch tin t ca cc quc gia cng nghip dn
u thit lp cc knh hp tc, v mt s qui ch quc t
ch thc c a ra. Quan trng nht l nhng yu cu v
vn i vi cc ngn hng thng mi c xc lp di s
bo h ca Ngn hng Thanh ton Quc t Basle nm 1988.
Thc ra, nu khng c s can thip ca cc nh chc trch
tin t th h thng ti chnh quc t c th sp t nht
bn ln: 1982, 1987, 1994, v 1997. Tuy nhin, s kim sot
quc t vn rt khng tho ng so vi mi trng iu tit
thnh hnh cc nc tin tin. Hn na, cc nh chc trch
tin t trung tm chc c th phn ng vi cc khng hong
nh hng trc tip n h hn l vi cc khng hong m
nn nhn ca chng ngoi vi. ng lu l s sp 1987
ca th trng c phiu Hoa K, c xut x thun tu ni a,
dn n cc thay i qui ch, c th l, a ra ci gi l
ngt mch (tm dng giao dch); nhng s nhiu lon trong
cc th trng ti chnh quc t khng gy ra p ng
tng t. Mc d vic a ra cc yu cu v vn theo Tho
c Basle 1988 l mt cu tr li chm cho khng hong
1982, s thc vn l cc qui ch quc t khng theo kp
bc vi s ton cu ho ca cc th trng ti chnh.
S khng tho ng ca cc qui ch quc t c th qui mt
phn cho s tht bi hiu bn cht phn thn ca tn dng
v mt phn cho tm trng thnh hnh v chng iu tit,
nhng ch yu do thiu cc nh ch quc t thch hp. Cc
h thng ti chnh quc gia l do cc ngn hng trung ng v
cc nh chc trch ti chnh khc cai qun. Nhn chung, h
lm vic tt, v khng c s sp c h thng no trong
GEORGE SOROS
___________________________________________________

190
cc nc cng nghip ch cht hng thp k nay. Nhng ai
chu trch nhim v h thng ti chnh quc t? Cc nh ch
ti chnh quc t v cc nh chc trch ti chnh quc gia hp
tc vi nhau khi c khng hong, nhng khng c ngn hng
trung ng quc t, khng c cc nh chc trch iu tit
quc t na n nh cc nh ch mc quc gia. Cc nh ch
Bretton Woods th lp l trng v thnh cng mt lc.
Nhng cui cng khong cch gia ngun lc ca chng v
khi lng ca dch chuyn vn quc t tr nn qu ln, v
trong khng hong 1997-1999 chng tht bi mt cch ngon
mc. S p li chnh tr lm gim thay cho tng cng
quyn lc v nh hng ca IMF. Nh ti s tranh lun
Chng 10, iu ny lm c cu ti chnh quc t yu nhiu
i.


Bt i xng, Bt n nh, v s C kt

Theo nh ngha, trung tm l nh cung cp vn, ngoi vi l
ngi nhn. S thay i t ngt v s sn lng ca trung tm
cp vn cho ngoi vi c th gy ra hn lon nghim trng
cc nc tip nhn. Bn cht ca hn lon ph thuc vo dng
vn c cung cp. Cc cng c n v tn dng ngn hng c
th gy ra ph sn v khng hong ngn hng; nu u t
dng c phiu, n c th y nhanh ri lon ca th trng c
phiu. u t trc tip t gy hn lon nht; ci xu nht c
th xy ra l thiu u t mi. Thng tt c cc hnh thc
vn dch chuyn theo cng chiu.
Ci g xy ra khi mt nc khng tr c n ca n? Cu
tr li b bao ph trong s huyn b, bi v v n chnh thc
thng c trnh. C cm tng chung rng nc lin quan
s chu tn tht khng sa c, nhng trong thc t nhiu
nc khng tho mn cc ngha v, v ngi ta tm ra
nhng cch dn xp chng. Tip theo khng hong n
quc t 1982, Cu Lc B Paris c thit lp gii quyt
n chnh thc, Cu Lc B London cho n thng mi. Khi
H thng T bn Ch ngha Ton cu
__________________________________________________



191
bi lng xung, ci gi l tri phiu Brady c pht hnh
thay th cc tri phiu cn tn ng.
Cho n mi y, cc ch n c xu hng lm n tt hn
nhiu so vi con n trong khng hong n quc t. H c th
phi gia hn cc khon vay, ko di ngy o hn, hoc thm
ch cho mc nhng b, song h khng phi t b quyn i
ca h. Mc d IMF khng c cho l thin v vi ngi cho
vay, s mng hng u ca n l duy tr h thng tin t quc
t, v tm cch trnh cc c sc t ngt i vi kh nng tr
c n ca cc ngn hng ch yu. Hn na, n khng c
ngun lc hnh ng nh ngi cho vay cui cng; v
vy n cn huy ng s gip t cc ngn hng, v cc
ngn hng bit li dng th no v th chin lc ca
chng. i khi thm ch h c th thuyt phc cc nc mc
n nhn trch nhim ca cc ngn hng ni a, cc t chc
nu khc i s b qut sch ( l ci xy ra Chile 1982,
Mexico 1994, v ln na, mc hn ch, Hn Quc
1998). Tt nhin, nhng ngi cho vay phi lp cc qu d
phng, nhng rt cuc chng thng thu c mt phn ng
k cc khon n xu. Hn na, cc ngn hng thng da vo
s gip ca cc nh chc trch tin t quc gia b p
cc tn tht tn dng. Cc D tr Lin bang gi li sut
ngn hn thp Hoa K mt cch ch t 1991 n 1993
cho php cc ngn hng M cht vt ti lp tnh sinh li; Ngn
hng Nht Bn lm nh th t 1995. Song cc nc mc
n khng c hng s gim nh c th so snh c. S
gip quc t thng c thit k lm cho h c kh
nng tho mn ngha v n. Mc d h c th khng c kh
nng tr ht n, h buc phi tr mc gii hn ca kh nng
ca h. Gnh nng thng ghm h xung hng nm tri.
iu ny tri ngc r rt vi cc khng hong n ni a
cc nc tin tin, ni cc th tc ph sn hng ti bo v
cc con n. Th d, cc ngn hng Hoa K mt nhiu tin
trong khng hong tit kim-v-vay cc nm 1985-1989 hn
trong khng hong n quc t 1982. Trong trng hp cho
vay quc t, kt qu thun ca cc chnh sch ca IMF l
GEORGE SOROS
___________________________________________________

192
cu gip cc ch n, gy ra him ho o c nguy him. Tt
c iu ny by gi ang thay i (xem Chng 10).
Bt i xng v i x vi nhng ngi cho vay v i vay
l mt ngun bt n nh chnh. Mi khng hong ti chnh
u xy ra sau khi m rng tn dng khng th duy tr ni.
Nu tn dng c th kim c t do, th l qu nhiu i k
vng cc con n t kim ch. Nu khu vc cng i vay, mn
n phi c chnh ph tng lai tr - tng nhanh n l ca
thot him tuyt vi cho cc ch yu. Th d, ch cng
sn ci cch Hungary th mua lng trung thnh ca nhn
dn bng tin i vay cho n khng hong 1982 lm chm dt
tp qun . Nhng khng ch c khu vc cng thiu kim
ch, v nu cc mn n tch t bi khu vc t nhn cc nh
chc trch tin t thm ch khng bit n n cho n khi qu
mun. l trng hp nhiu nc Chu nm 1997.
Tuy nhin, s bt i xng cng l mt ngun c kt. Mi
loi p lc ti chnh v chnh tr u cha vo cc nc mc
n, lm kh cho h quyt nh khng tham gia vo h
thng bng cch bi c cc ngha v. p lc dng gi h
thng li vi nhau ngay cho d n l au n vi cc nc
l thnh vin. Th d, cuc bu c dn ch u tin Hungary
nm 1990 c th cho mt c hi tuyt vi vch ng
ranh gii gia n nn c v cc ngha v mi m ch dn
ch mi rng buc vo. Ti c chun b mt s nh
vy, nhng th tng tng lai, Joseph Antal, nut li v ng
ta qu chu n nc c, ch n ln nht ca Hungary. C
cc th d khc; ti nh mi Chile nm 1982. Di nh hng
ca trng phi Chicago, h thng ngn hng Chile c
t nhn ho, v cc nh kinh doanh mua cc ngn hng s
dng tin vay t bn thn ngn hng. Nm 1982, khi cc ngn
hng khng th tho mn cc ngha v quc t ca mnh, nh
nc gnh trch nhim v n ca cc ngn hng c t
nhn ho v ch Pinochet, thiu tnh hp php trong nc,
hm h duy tr mc tn nhim ca n nc ngoi. Kt
qu l, nhng ngi ng thu phi thanh ton ho n.
H thng T bn Ch ngha Ton cu
__________________________________________________



193
Cn phi nhc ti bt i xng khc na. Pht hnh tin l
c quyn quc gia, v cc quc gia m ng tin ca h d
c chp nhn trong cc giao dch quc t c v th tt hn
nhiu so vi cc nc khng th i vay bng ng tin ca
mnh. y l mt trong cc li th chnh trung tm i
li vi ngoi vi. Li ch kim c li c tin (tit kim li
bng cch pht hnh giy bc ngn hng hn l tn phiu kho
bc) l tng i khng quan trng so vi t chu trch nhim
v chnh sch tin t ca ring mnh. Cc nc ngoi vi phi
theo s ra hiu t trung tm - trc ht l Hoa K. V chnh
sch tin t ca cc nc trung tm c cc cn nhc ni a
ch dn, cc nc ngoi vi c t kim sot vi s phn ring
ca mnh.
S thc cc ng tin ch yu bin ng so vi nhau cng
l mt ngun bt n nh. S thay i li sut v t gi hi
oi nh vo cc nc ph thuc nh cc c sc bn ngoi,
d cho thc t n l ni sinh i vi h thng. Khng hong
n quc t 1982 c y nhanh bi s tng mnh li sut
ni a Hoa K; khng hong Chu 1997 gn vi s ln
gi la M. Nm 2000, ng euro yu gy cng thng.
S cch bit gia trung tm v ngoi vi khng gii hn h
thng ti chnh ton cu; n cng hin din trong C ch
T gi hi oi u Chu (ERM). Bundesbank ng vai tr
kp: Theo hin php c n c bn phn duy tr gi tr ng
mark c, v ng thi n de facto l trng ti ca chnh sch
tin t cho h thng tin t u Chu. Hai vai tr tr nn mu
thun sau khi thng nht nc c. Nhng cn nhc ni a
i chnh sch tin t cht; tnh hnh kinh t ca phn cn li
ca Chu u i hi iu ngc li. Khng ngc nhin cc
cn nhc ni a thng th, v ERM sp nm 1992.

Hai bt i xng ny - gia ngi cho vay v ngi i vay
v gia trung tm v ngoi vi - l cc ngun cn bn song
khng duy nht - ca bt n nh trong h thng ti chnh
quc t. Cc khon u t chng khon cng kht ting bt n
nh. V mt lch s, cc khon u t nc ngoi thng
GEORGE SOROS
___________________________________________________

194
xut hin cc giai on cao ca cc th trng gi ln, khi
cc c phiu ni a c nh gi qu cao v c li dng
qu mc, v cc nh u t tr nn phiu lu hn. S quan
tm t ngt n mt th trng nc ngoi s y gi
ln n nh, cui cng s rt cng nhanh th khi th trng
gi ln ni a chm dt v cc nh u t lo lng rt tin
v. y l lnh vc chuyn mn khi u ca ti, v ti tri
qua nhiu tnh tit nh vy. Tnh hnh t thay i. u
t nc ngoi khng cn l hot ng thi thong m ng
hn tr thnh k sinh nhai ca cc nh u t nh ch.
Mc d nhp c bit ca u t nc ngoi m ti quen
c th li thi, s ngu xun ngh rng cc th trng c
phiu khng cn d b tn thng vi bt cn bng ng.
Trong thi k bt trc, vn c xu hng quay v ch ban u
ca n. l l do khc na v sao cc nhiu lon thng c
nh hng ln khng cn xng ngoi vi so vi trung tm.
Thng mt nhiu lon nh trung tm b phng i ln
thnh mt khng hong ngoi vi. Khng hong ti chnh
1997-1999 l khc thng, thm ch c nht, kha cnh ny
v xung khng n t trung tm.
Bt chp tnh bt i xng v khng n nh ca n hay
ng hn v n - h thng t bn ton cu biu hin s c kt
ng k. ngoi vi c nhng bt li ca n, song khng tham
gia khng phi l mt la chn kh d. S c lp c th tc
mt ca cc nc ngho khng ch vn m c i mi cng
ngh na.
t ch vo vin cnh, h thng t bn ton cu
mang li li ch vt cht to ln. Ngi ta c lng rng ton
cu ho lm tng 1 phn trm hng nm cho nn kinh t th
gii. Mc d cc qun bi c sp xp c li cho trung tm,
cc nc ngoi vi c kh nng thu ht vn cng thnh
vng. Khng hong 1997-1999 ging xung Chu sau mt
thi k tng trng bng n, v s phc hi nhanh hn c
th k vng. Cho nn cng vi tnh c kt ca n, h thng
cng chng t kh nng hi phc mau ng k, i trng li
vi mt tiu cc ca n v bt i xng v bt n nh.
H thng T bn Ch ngha Ton cu
__________________________________________________



195


Tng lai ca H thng T bn Ton cu

C th ni g v tng lai ca h thng t bn ton cu? Lch
s cho cc manh mi no . y khng phi l ln u vn
(t bn) chy t do. Theo cch no , phin bn th k mi
chn ca ch ngha t bn ton cu n nh hn. N c
mt ng tin duy nht vng - trong khi ngy nay c ba
ng tin chnh dollar, yen, v euro x y nhau nh cc
a tng. Lc cc cng quc quc, Anh ng u trong
s h - kim li t h thng bin minh cho vic phi
cc pho hm n cc vng xa xi duy tr ho bnh v thu
n; ngy nay Hoa K t chi l cnh st th gii. Quan trng
nht, ngi dn bt r chc vo cc gi tr cn bn hn
ngy nay. Thc ti vn c coi l ci g bn ngoi,
v t duy vn c coi l cng c th t ti tri thc. ng v
sai, tht v gi c coi l cc tiu chun khch quan m
ngi dn ph thuc vo. Khoa hc cho cc gii thch v
tin on tt nh. C cho l nh vy, c cc mu thun
gia cc n thuc ca khoa hc v tn gio, nhng cng
nhau chng cho mt s ch dn ng tin cy cho th gii.
Chng to ra mt nn vn minh ch ng th gii bt
chp cc mu thun ni ti ca n.
H thng t bn ton cu ny chm dt do Chin tranh
Th gii I. c mt s khng hong ti chnh trc cuc
chin , vi trong s rt gay gt, gy ra trc trc v suy
gim kinh t nhiu nm tri. Tuy nhin, khng phi cc
khng hong kinh t l ci hu dit h thng m l chin
tranh v cc cuc cch mng chnh tr sau .
Mt kip khc ca ch ngha t bn quc t tip theo trong
cc nm 1920, mc d n khng ng l ton cu v qui m.
N sp nm 1929, nhng ti nghi ng l mt tnh tit
tng t s ti din, v cho h thng ngn hng Hoa K sp
l mt sai lm chnh tr m chng ta chc s khng mc
li. Tuy nhin, ti thy bt n nh trc mt.
GEORGE SOROS
___________________________________________________

196
Boom-Bust

Ti min cng p dng m hnh boom-bust vi h thng t
bn ton cu v ti coi h thng qu b ng v cha y
khp vi hnh mu. Hu nh chng li nh gi tt hn ca
ti - khng nn din gii mi th nh mt hin tng boom-
bust - ti c th nhn ra cc yu t ca hnh mu boom-bust:
mt xu th thnh hnh - c th l, cnh tranh quc t v vn;
v mt thin kin thnh hnh - c th l, qu tin vo c ch th
trng. Trong boom, c thin kin v xu th tng cng ln
nhau; trong bust, c hai s tan v. Ci g gy ra bust? Ti tin
cu tr li c tm thy s cng thng gia phm vi ton
cu ca cc th trng ti chnh v phm vi quc gia ca chnh
tr. Trc ti m t h thng t bn ton cu nh mt h
tun hon khng l ht vn v trung tm v y n ra ngoi
vi. Cc quc gia c ch quyn hot ng nh cc van trong h
thng. Khi cc th trng ti chnh m rng, cc van m,
nhng nu v khi dng tin vn o ngc chng c th ng,
gy ra s v h thng. Theo gi thuyt ny, ti s kho st
h t tng thnh hnh u tin, th n l xu th thnh hnh.


Thuyt Th trng Chnh thng

H thng t bn ton cu c mt thc h bn r vo l
thuyt cnh tranh hon ho ng h. Theo l thuyt ny cc th
trng c xu hng ti cn bng, v v tr cn bng i din
cho s phn b ngun lc hiu qu nht. Bt k rng buc no
ln cnh tranh t do u gy tr ngi cho tnh hiu qu ca th
trng; v vy phi phn i chng. H t tng ny c
gi l laissez-faire th k mi chn, nhng ti tm ra
thut ng tt hn cho n: thuyt th trng chnh thng.
Thuyt chnh thng hm nim tin c thc hin n cc
oan. Chnh l nim tin vo s hon ho, nim tin cung cp
mt gii php cho mi vn . N tha nhn mt uy quyn
c ph cho tri thc hon ho, cho d l tri thc nh vy
H thng T bn Ch ngha Ton cu
__________________________________________________



197

nhng ngi bnh thng khng d tip cn c. Tn gio
c th l mt uy quyn nh vy, v trong thi hin i khoa
hc tr thnh ci thay th ng tin cy. Ch ngha Marx t
cho l c c s khoa hc, v thuyt th trng chnh thng
cng vy. C s khoa hc cho c hai thc h c xc lp
th k mi chn, khi khoa hc vn ha hn cung cp chn l
cui cng. Chng ta hc c rt nhiu k t v cc hn
ch ca phng php khoa hc v nhng bt hon ho ca c
ch th trng. Cc h t tng Marxist v laissez-faire b
mt uy tn hon ton. H t tng laissez-faire l ci u tin
b gt b, nh hu qu ca i Suy thoi v s ni ln ca
kinh t hc Keynes. Ch ngha Marx nn n bt chp thi qu
ca ch ngha Stalin, nhng tip theo s sp ca h thng
Soviet by gi n gn lu m hon ton.
Vo nhng ngy sinh vin ca ti u cc nm 1950,
laissez-faire thm ch khng c chp nhn hn can thip
ca nh nc vo kinh t ngy nay. tng n xut hin li
hnh nh khng th hnh dung ni. Ti tin s hi sinh ca
thuyt th trng chnh thng c th c gii thch ch bng
nim tin vo ma thut, ci thm ch cn thuyt phc hn c s
khoa hc. Tng thng Reagan ni v ma thut ca thng
trng bn tay v hnh l ma thut hng mnh tht s.
Nt ch cht ca bt k nim tin chnh thng no u da
vo cc nh gi trng-en, hoc-hoc. Nu mt nh hay
chnh sch l sai, ci ngc li phi ng. Logic non sequiter
*

ny nm tm ca c Ch ngha Marx v thuyt th trng
chnh thng. Ch ngha Marx cho rng quyn s hu t nhn
v vn l bt cng v khng th dung th; nn phi thay bng
s hu nh nc. Thuyt th trng chnh thng cho rng can
thip nh nc l phi hiu qu v c hi; v vy khng c
bt k ci g can thip vo c ch th trng. ng l, can
thip nh nc vo nn kinh t lun to ra cc kt qu tiu
cc no . iu ny ng khng ch vi k hoch ho tp
trung m c vi nh nc phc li v qun l cu ca Keynes.

*
Latin: Li ni (cu) khng hp
GEORGE SOROS
___________________________________________________

198

T quan st tm thng ny, cc nh theo thuyt th trng
chnh thng vi kt lun rng th trng t do phi hon ho.
Cng bng m ni, l l ng h cc th trng khng b iu
tit him khi c trnh by mt cch th tc nh vy. Ngc
li, nhng ngi nh Milton Friedman tch cp hng tp s
liu thng k, v cc l thuyt gia v k vng duy l s dng
ton hc b n m ngi thng kh theo ni. Cc m hnh
tinh vi c pht trin qui s thiu cc iu kin hon
ho - c th l, cn bng ti a ho phc li - cho thng tin
khng hon ho hay bt i xng. Hu ht song khng phi
tt c cc m hnh ny c dng xc lp cc iu kin cn
bng. N lm ti nh n cc tho lun thn hc thi Trung
c v s cc thn tin nhy ma trn u mt chic kim.
Thuyt th trng chnh thng ng mt vai tr mu cht
trong h thng t bn ton cu. N cung cp h t tng thc
y nhiu ngi tham gia thnh cng v pht ng chnh
sch. Thiu n, chng ta c th khng c bin minh ni
v mt h thng t bn ton cu. Thuyt th trng chnh
thng tr nn ch ng chnh sch vo khong 1980, vi s ni
ln ca Reagan v Thatcher. Xu th thnh hnh - cnh tranh
quc t v vn - bt u sm hn, vi hai khng hong du
cc nm 1970 v s thit lp cc th trng hi ngoi v cc
ng tin Euro
*
, nhng ch sau khi nhng thay i chnh tr
do Thatcher v Reagan a ra th vn v ti kinh doanh
(entrepreneurship) - mi chim u th. Thin kin v xu
hng tng cng ln nhau k t .


Chin thng ca Ch ngha T bn
42


Cnh tranh ton cu v vn cho vn ti chnh u th. Cc
nc ring l phi cnh tranh thu ht v gi n. Xu hng

*
Eurocurrency: mi loi tin dng nc ngoi u gi l tin Euro, nh ng Yen dng
M cng gi l Euroyen; ng ln vi ng euro l ng tin chung ca cc nc Chu u.
42
on ny c vit thng Tm 1998, khng c cp nht gi tnh chnh xc lch s
tr ch c ni r.
H thng T bn Ch ngha Ton cu
__________________________________________________



199
c Hoa K tng cng, n s dng p lc chnh tr m
cc th trng vn.
Hoa K, cc cng ti c c phiu bn cng khai ngy cng
tng v s lng v qui m, v li ch ca c ng hin ra
cng ln hn. Cc ban qun l cng quan tm n th trng
cho c phiu ca h nhiu nh th trng cho sn phm ca
h. Nu phi la chn, cc tn hiu t cc th trng ti chnh
c u tin hn tn hiu t cc th trng sn phm: H s sn
sng gt b cc b phn hoc bn c cng ti nu n lm tng
gi tr ca c ng. Cc cng ti phi hoc i thn tnh hoc b
thn tnh trong mt th trng ton cu ngy cng hi nhp
hn; c hai cch, ban qun l cn gi cao cho c phiu ca h.
Cc phn thng c nhn cng ngy cng gn vi gi c
phiu. S thay i ni bt nht trong khu vc ngn hng,
ngnh tri qua s hp nht nhanh chng. C phiu ngn hng
c bn mc nhiu ln gi tr s sch, nhng cc nh qun
l, lu tm n quyn chn c phiu ca mnh, tip tc mua li
c phn, lm gim s c phn cha n hn thanh ton v lm
tng gi tr th trng ca chng bt k khi no c th.
Sp nhp v thn tnh t mc cha tng c khi cc ngnh
hp nht trn c s ton cu. Cc giao dch gia cc nc ph
bin hn. Vic thit lp mt ng tin duy nht Chu u
cho s hp nht khp Chu u s thc y to ln. V s sp
xp li cc cng ti xy ra nhanh hn ta c th hnh dung. Cc
c quyn v c quyn nhm ton cu ang ni ln
(Microsoft v Intel l cc th d sm). Ch cn bn cng ti
kim ton chnh trn th gii; s tp trung tng t nhng t
r rt hn ang xy ra trong cc chc nng ti chnh khc.
ng thi, s cc c ng tng ln, v tm quan trng
tng i ca s hu c phn trong ca ci ca h gia nh
tng nhanh. iu ny xy ra da trn c s tng bn vng v
nhanh v gi vn c phn. Trc thng Tm 1998 t sp gi
ln ln cui trong th trng gi ln khi u vo u cc nm
1980 xy ra nm 1987, v ch s Standard and Poor (S&P)
tng hn 350 phn trm k t . c, th trng
GEORGE SOROS
___________________________________________________

200

tng 300 phn trm t thng Chn 1992.
43
Tng trng v
hot ng kinh t khim tn hn nhng bn vng. Ch tm
vo tnh sinh li dn n gim s ngi lm v tng sn
lng u ra trn mi nhn vin, trong khi tin b nhanh v
cng ngh ng gp vo tng nng sut. Ton cu ho v li
dng cc ngun lao ng r gi chi ph sn xut thp, v
li sut, cn i li, chng t mt xu hng gim t u cc
nm 1980 gp phn lm tng gi vn c phn.
S ph bin ca s hu c phiu qua cc qu u t tn thc
gy ra hai ngun bt n nh tim tng, c bit Hoa K.
Mt l ci gi l hiu ng giu c (wealth effect). Ba mi
tm phn trm ca ci ca h gia nh v 56 phn trm ca
cc qu hu tr c u t vo c phiu. Cc ch c phiu c
li nhun trn giy ln, h cm thy giu c, v thin hng
tit kim ca h gim n im bin mt. Tit kim c nhn
tnh bng phn trm ca thu nhp kh dng by gi gim
xung cn 0,1 phn trm t nh 13 phn trm nm 1975. Nu
c s gim st ko di trong th trng c phiu, cm tnh ca
cc c ng c th o ngc, gp phn vo suy thoi v tng
cng s st gim th trng.
Ngun bt n tim tng khc l t cc qu u t tn thc
(qu tng t). Cc nh qun l qu c nh gi trn c s
thnh tch ca h so tng i vi cc nh qun l qu khc,
khng trn c s thnh tch tuyt i. iu ny nghe nh mt
im b n, nhng n c cc h lu ln, v thc tin n buc
cc nh qun l qu ng x theo xu hng. Chng no h cn
theo kp by n, khng c tn hi no n vi h ngay cho
d cc nh u t c mt tin; nhng nu h th chng li xu
hng v thnh tch tng i ca h thit hi ngay d ch
tm thi, h c th mt vic lm. (y chnh l ci xy ra
vi Jeff Vinik, nh qun l ca qu ln nht ca Fidelity. T
ng rt thnh cng ring mnh, nhn ph thnh cng trn
c s thnh tch tuyt i). n ma thu nm 1998, cc qu
u t tn thc, do quen vi dng tin mt mi chy vo

43
Gia ma thu 1998 v gia thng Ba 2000, ch s S&P tng thm 42 phn trm, Nasdaq
238 phn trm, v ch s DAX c 100 phn trm.
H thng T bn Ch ngha Ton cu
__________________________________________________



201
lin tc, gi d tr tin mt thp nht t trc n gi. Nu
xu th i hng, h buc phi huy ng tin mt, li ln na
lm tng p lc theo chiu xung.
D iu ny c th ng lo n u, cc ngun bt n ch
yu c thy trong v i quc t. H thng t bn ton cu
ang tri qua th thch khc nghit nht ca s tn ti ca n:
Khng hong Chu v hu qu ca n. Kim tra to thnh
giai on th ba trong hnh mu boom-bust. Nh trong mi
chui boom-bust, n khng th c tin on vi s chc
chn liu mt xu hng c qua c th thch thnh cng hay
o ngc t ngt. Hu ch hn l a ra cc kch bn kh d
cho th thch thnh cng hay tht bi.

Nu h thng t bn ton cu vt qua c giai on th
thch hin thi, tip theo giai on ny s l mt t tng tc
na ci s ko h thng vo a ht xa cn bng (thc ra nu
chng ta cha ri). Mt trong cc c im ca hnh thc
mi, v cc oan hn ca ch ngha t bn ton cu s l s
loi b mt la chn kh d hp l i vi t tng th trng
t do mi ni ln gn y: ci gi l m hnh Chu, hay
Khng gio. Nh kt qu ca khng hong hin thi, cc nh
t bn Hoa Kiu v Hn Kiu m ca ci ca h b tn hi
nghim trng s phi t b s kim sot gia nh. Nhng
ngi sn lng lm vy s sng st v mt kinh t; nhng
ngi khc chc s dit vong. Khng hong cng lm trm
trng thm tnh hnh ca cc cng ti mc n nhiu tt c cc
nc Chu. Cc cng ti c n nc ngoi thy cc t l n-
trn-vn c phn ca mnh xu i; cc cng ti c n trong
nc b ging bi s kt hp ca li sut tng v thu nhp
gim. Cch thot duy nht l chuyn n thnh vn c phn
hoc huy ng thm vn c phn. iu ny khng th c
lm bi gia nh; thng khng th lm c ni b trong
nc. Khng c la chn khc l bn cho ngi nc ngoi.
Kt qu thun s l chm ht cho m hnh Chu v bt
u ca mt thi i mi trong cc nc ngoi vi s hi
nhp mt thit hn vo h thng t bn ton cu. Cc ngn
GEORGE SOROS
___________________________________________________

202

hng quc t v cng ti a quc gia s c v tr vng mnh.
Trong cc cng ti a phng, mt th h mi ca cc thnh
vin gia nh hay nh qun l chuyn nghip c o to
nc ngoi s gi a v lnh o. ng c li nhun c a v
cao hn o c Khng gio, v thin kin theo thuyt th
trng chnh thng s c tng cng. Mt s nc, nh
Malaysia, c th vp ng nu c chp vi cc chnh sch bi
ngoi v phn th trng, cn cc nc khc s thnh cng.
44

Cho nn nu h thng t bn ton cu ni ln thng li t
cuc khng hong hin thi, c th d kin rng nn kinh t
th gii s b thng tr thm ch cn hn na bi cc cng ti
quc t do cng chng s hu. Cnh tranh khc lit s khng
cho php h nhiu n nhng cn nhc x hi. H s, tt
nhin, ng h sung cc s nghip ng knh trng nh mi
trng, c bit nu h phi giao thip trc tip vi cng
chng, nhng h s khng c kh nng duy tr cng n
vic lm nu tn hi n li nhun.
Tuy nhin, rt c th l h thng t bn ton cu s khng
qua ni khng hong hin thi. Cc m my bo t ang t
tp chn tri chnh tr, cho d l tc ng ban u ca khng
hong tng cng dn ch. Cc ch tham nhng v chuyn
quyn b lt vi nc. Hn quc may la chn
c mt tng thng mi, Kim Dae Jung, ngi t lu l
mt ngi ph phn thng thng mi quan h lon lun gia
chnh ph v gii kinh doanh. Th tng hin thi ca Thi
Lan c mn m chung v tnh chn tht ca ng, v c
vy quanh bi mt ni cc c gio dc Phng Ty v
ng h th trng. Indonesia, Suharto b cch mng lt .
Ch Mahathir Malaysia l thnh cng gi quyn lc cho
mnh v chin hu bng cch kim sot vn. Nhng st gim
kinh t vn cha din bin ht, v nhng cng thng chnh tr
tng ln. Trung Quc, nhng ngi ci cch kinh t ng
u, nhng c mi him nguy tht l nu cc iu kin kinh t
tip tc xu i nhng ngi ci cch s thua nhng ngi

44
Khi xy ra, Malaysia vt qua cn bo tt hn Indonesia v Thi Lan.
H thng T bn Ch ngha Ton cu
__________________________________________________



203

cng rn. S on gin chng M, chng IMF, chng nc
ngoi ang tch t ri khp Chu - k c Nht Bn. Bu c
Indonesia c th to ra mt chnh ph hi gio, dn tc ch
ngha ly cm hng t cc tng ca Mahathir.
45

Ci din ra trung tm s c tnh quyt nh. Cho n mi
y rc ri ngoi vi mang li cho trung tm. N lm
mt tc dng ca p lc lm pht chm n, khin cc nh
chc trch tin t khng tng li sut, v cho php cc th
trng c phiu t cc nh cao mi. Nhng cc tc ng
tch cc ca khng hong Chu bt u mn i, v cc tc
ng tiu cc bt u ni ln. Bin li nhun chu p lc tng
ln. Mt s cng ti b nh hng trc tip bi gim cu hoc
cnh tranh khc lit hn t nc ngoi; ngnh dch v khng
b nh hng trc tip ca cnh tranh quc t thy nh hng
ca tng chi ph nhn cng.
Boom th trng c phiu Hoa K cng kt thc.
46
Nu
th trng sa st, hiu ng giu c c th chuyn sa st th
trng thnh sa st kinh t. iu c th lm tng chng i
nhp khu, ci n lt n kch ng s on nght ngoi vi.
K t khi n ra khng hong Chu vn chy khi
ngoi vi. Nu cc nc ngoi vi t b hi vng rng dng chy
s li tip tc, h c th bt u dng ch quyn ngn dng
chy ra. iu s khin cc nh u t nc ngoi b chy
khi cc nc khc trong khi h c th, v h thng s sp .
Hoa K cng ngy cng nhn hng ni. S t chi ca Quc
hi cp thm tin cho IMF ngy nay c th ng cng vai tr
nh thu quan bo h Smoot-Hawley ng trong i Suy
thoi.
47

Ci no trong hai kch bn chc s xy ra? Nh mt ngi
tham gia th trng, ti phi duy tr u c thong, m. Ti

45
Li ln na, cc s kin din ra khc i. Indonesia bu mt gio s hi gio,
Abdurraman Wahid, lm tng thng, mt ngi tin chc vo x hi m. Trung Quc, cc
nh ci cch ly li c nh hng sau t gii lao khng vng, mc d ch ngha dn tc
thm ch tr nn vng vng hn nh h t tng thay th cho ch ngha cng sn.
46
Ti chng cn ch ra rng kt lun ny l hp tp.
47
Trong khi kch bn thm khc ny b s kin bc b, ti coi nhng pht trin IMF nh
mt ngun ca rc ri tng lai (xem Chng 10).
GEORGE SOROS
___________________________________________________

204
khng h do d, tuy vy, trong khng nh rng h thng t
bn ton cu s khng chu ni cc sai st ca n, nu khng
phi dp ny th dp tip theo - tr phi chng ta nhn ra rng
n c sai st v hnh ng kp thi sa cha cc thiu st.
Ti c th thy r ri nhng ng nt ca cuc khng
hong cui cng. N mang c tnh chnh tr. Cc phong tro
chnh tr bn x chc s ny sinh tm cch tc ot cc cng
ti a quc gia v ot li ca ci quc gia. Mt s trong s
c th thnh cng theo kiu ca Phin lon Ngha ho on
Trung Quc hay Cch mng Zapatista Mexico. Thnh cng
ca h khi c th lm lung lay s tin tng ca cc th
trng ti chnh, gy ra mt qu trnh t tng cng chiu
sa st. Liu n c xy ra dp ny hay dp tip theo cn l mt
cu hi ng.
Chng no mt qu trnh boom-bust vt qua th thch, n
c tng cng. Th thch cng nghim ngt, s tng cng
cng mnh. Sau mi th thch thnh cng th n giai on
tng tc; sau mt giai on tng tc n gi pht quyt nh.
Chnh xc chng ta u trong chui ny l khng th xc
nh c tr khi nhn li.


Ti bt Ph phn

Vn bn ny c vit ma thu nm 1998. Nn kinh t ton
cu vt qua sng gi tt hn nhiu so vi ti d kin.
Nhn li t khung cnh ca nm 2000, chng ta thy khng
hong ti chnh 1997-1999 nh mt c vp nh trong cuc
hnh qun chin thng ca ch ngha t bn. Nu ti mun
trung thnh vi cch tip cn boom-bust ca mnh ti c th
ni rng h thng t bn ton cu tri qua mt th thch
gay gt, do cng c thin kin theo thuyt th trng chnh
thng. Nhng ti s l l Chng 10 rng s tin cy c
tn ln vo k lut th trng lm yu kin trc ti chnh
ton cu cho th thch tip theo.
H thng T bn Ch ngha Ton cu
__________________________________________________



205
Ti cm thy, tuy vy, buc phi ch ra mt sai st trong
phn tch ring ca ti. Ti tp trung vo vai tr ca vn,
c bit l vn ti chnh, v khng coi trng cc li ch
ca ti kinh doanh (entrepreneurship). y l mt s b st
nghim trng. Ti nhic mc l thuyt kinh t v bn r
vo qu kh, v ti li ri vo ng by .
Tranh lun gia ch ngha t bn v ch ngha x hi c
xut x ca n th k mi chn, v nh vy n b nh
hng ca cc khi nim kinh t th k mi chn. Chnh
thut ng ch ngha t bn c dn ra t s phn chia cc
yu t sn xut thnh lao ng, t ai, v vn. Ti kinh
doanh l mt khi nim n mun hn i vi s phn chia
ny khi c khm ph ra rng gi tr ca u ra khng th
c dn t cc yu t sn xut dng sn xut ra n; ti
kinh doanh c a ra tnh n s khc bit ny. Cho nn
khi ta ni cho vn bn tay t do, chng ta thc ra ni v ti
kinh doanh: theo ui li tc cao hn cho vn - li nhun. Li
nhun l sn phm ca ti kinh doanh hn l ca vn. Th d,
vi t cch mt nh qun l qu t bo him nhm ca ti v
ti u t tin ca ngi khc, v chng ti nhn c 20
phn trm li nhun. Cho nn khng c ng xu no khi
ng, ti c th tr thnh mt nh t bn.
Ti kinh doanh c th lm tng hiu sut ca vn. Ton cu
ho, xo b cc hn ch ca chnh ph, v cho ng c li
nhun bn tay t do dn n s bng n thc s v nng
sut. Lm sao ti li c th b qua iu ? Ti c th l l
rng s gia tc trong nhp i mi cng ngh ch l s
trng hp ngu nhin, nhng ngay c khi n vn l mt s
thc. Trong mi trng hp, nh mt ngi tin vo tnh phn
thn ti khng mun treo ci m ca ti vo ci mc . C
th c yu t trng hp ngu nhin; rt cuc, tng nng sut
lin h mt thit vi s pht trin ca nn kinh t mng, v
Internet t khi lng ti hn trong vi nm va qua.
Nhng bn thn s tng trng bng n ca Internet l thng
li ca ng c li nhun. Internet khi u nh mt mng
nghin cu do chnh ph ti tr m ngi ta mc vo, ging
GEORGE SOROS
___________________________________________________

206

nh nhng ngi chim t mc ly trm in. Ch khi n
bt u c dng cho thng mi v qung co n mi tr
thnh mt yu t quan trng nui dng nng sut, tng
trng kinh t, v mt boom th trng c phiu.
48
Nhng i
mi cng ngh, m th tc Internet ch l mt trong s ,
cng lin kt mt cch phn thn vi xo b c quyn trong
ngnh in thoi. V s thm nhp ca ng c li nhun vo
nghin cu sinh hc lm tng tc cch mng cng ngh
sinh hc. Phi tha nhn rng g b iu tit v cho ng c
li nhun uy quyn t do c th gii phng cc nng lc sng
to - ging nh th thn linh ra khi ci chai.
l mt li nghim trng khng cho yu t ny mt trng
lng ln hn. N l ra phi l mt phn khng tch ri ca
phn tch boom-bust ca ti. Ti l l rng s sp ti
chnh ngoi vi cho cc nc trung tm mt ch th t lc
bt u lm pht. C mt yu t ng trong l l , v n c
trng lng ln i vi cc nh chc trch tin t. Nhng nn
kinh t th gii by gi phc hi v lm pht vn cha ngoi
ci u xu xa ca n ln. Cc D tr Lin bang thc t thy
mnh cng v tr nh trc khi bt u khng hong ti
chnh 1997-1999: N cm thy buc phi tng li sut, mt
phn ngn chn p lc lm pht khi pht trin, nhng ch
yu chn trc mt bust cui cng th trng c phiu.
Nh ti ch ra trc y, ci lm cho cc th trng ti
chnh l khng th tin on c mt cch c hu l qu
trnh boom-bust da vo ci g thc, v thc ti, ci tng
tc vi cm nhn ca nhng ngi tham gia, c hnh th mi
lc mt khc. Nu gi nh cc th trng ti chnh l mt h
thng khp kn chng c th d tin on hn. Trong dp ny
nh hng ca nhng i mi cng ngh l thc v quan
trng, v ti phm mt sai lm nghim trng b n ngoi

48
Ti phi th nhn mt thin kin lin quan n Internet ci rt cuc l s m qung. Ti
bit v Internet trc khi n sinh ra v ti l mt nh u t trong Bolt, Beranek and
Newman cng ti thit k mng tin thn ca n, mng Arpanet, vo cui cc nm 1970. Ti
thy tim nng ca cng ngh Internet nh cng c thc y x hi m, v ti chi
hng chc triu la a n vo Lin X trc y; tuy th ti khng u t vo n cc
giai on u khi n i vo thng mi.
H thng T bn Ch ngha Ton cu
__________________________________________________



207
phn tch ca mnh. N khng lm thay i quan im ca ti
l boom th trng c phiu hn c th ko theo mt bust, v
Cc D tr Lin bang ng c chn trc n. Lm sao
gi nhng thi qu v nh gi ti sn sao cho nm trong
cc gii hn c th chu c tr thnh mt phn s mng
ca n.
Nhng ti phi thay i li tin tri ca ti lin quan n ci
cht cui cng ca h thng t bn ch ngha. Ti tin
on cc lc lng dn tc ch ngha s tin hnh tc ot
in cung. iu ny t c kh nng hn nhiu khi u t
nc ngoi mang li cng ngh tin tin so vi khi u t
ch hng ch yu ti khai thc ti nguyn thin nhin v
cng ngh cn thit cho sn xut xc lp tt. Di tnh
hnh hin thi n gin khng c li khng tham gia h
thng. iu khng c ngha rng mt s nc no s
khng n lc th, nhng n ng c ngha l xu th chc
khng lan rng. C th c cc nh nc x l no , nhng
chng chc khng lm sp h thng t bn ch ngha. Kt
thc ca h thng hin ti khng trong tm nhn. C nhng
mi nguy him t nh hn hin ra l l, m ti s khm ph
su hn ba chng cui ca cun sch.



CHNG 8

Khng hong Ti chnh 1997-1999
















Khng hong chu
49


Khng hong ti chnh khi u Thi Lan nm 1997 c
bit lm bc mnh v qui m v tnh khc lit ca n. Soros
Fund Management chng ti c th thy mt khng hong
n su thng trc nh nhng ngi khc, nhng mc
trc trc lm cho mi ngi ngc nhin. Nhiu mt cn bng
tim tng v dng nh khng lin quan c kch hot,
v s tng tc ca chng gy ra mt qu trnh xa cn
bng m kt qu ca n hon ton ngoi t l vi thnh phn
to ra n.
Cc th trng ti chnh ng mt vai tr khc xa vai tr
c l thuyt kinh t phn cho chng. Cc th trng ti
chnh c gi thit lc nh mt qu lc: Chng c th giao
ng d di di phn ng vi cc c sc bn ngoi, nhng

49
c bit ban u vo ma h 1998; cp nht khi cn.
Khng hong ti chnh 1997-1999
__________________________________________________



209

cui cng chng c cho l i n mt im cn bng c
cho l phn nh nhng ci cn bn. Thay vo cc th
trng ti chnh c x nh mt tri ph, bn t nc ny
sang nc khc, lm nhng ch yu nht v bin i
nhng ci cn bn. Nguyn nhn trc tip nht ca rc ri
l s khp khnh ca cc ng tin. Cc nc ng Nam
duy tr nhng dn xp phi chnh thc gn ng tin ca h
vo ng dollar M. S n nh b ngoi ca neo dollar ny
khuyn khch cc ngn hng a phng vay dollar v
chuyn thnh ni t m khng c t bo him; cc ngn hng
sau cho vay hay u t vo cc d n a phng, c bit
l bt ng sn. y dng nh l cch kim tin khng c
ri ro chng no neo phi chnh thc cn vng. Nhng s dn
xp b p lc, mt phn t boom tn dng m n gy ra, mt
phn t gim bt hot ng Nht, mt phn t s ln gi
ca ng dollar M vi ng yen Nht. Cn cn thng mi
ca cc nc lin quan xu i, mc d thm ht thng
mi c b bi dng chy lin tc v ng k vo cc ti
khon vn.
Vo u nm 1997, r vi Soros Fund Management rng
s tri ngc gia ti khon thng mi v ti khon vn
tr nn khng th gi vng c. Chng ti bn non ng
bt Thi v ringgit Malaysia u nm 1997 vi ngy o hn
t su thng n mt nm.
50
Sau Th tng Malaysia
Mahathir ln n ti gy ra khng hong, mt s buc ti
hon ton v cn c. Chng ti khng l ngi bn ng
tin trong hay vi thng trc khng hong; ngc li, chng
ti l ngi mua khi ng tin bt u gim gi chng ti
mua ringgit kim li nhun trn khon u c trc y
ca mnh. (Ho ra l qu sm. Chng ti b hu ht li
tim nng trn bn v chng ti s l Mahathir s p t
kim sot vn. ng ta lm vy, nhng mun hn nhiu).
Nu r vi chng ti vo thng Ging 1997 rng tnh
hnh khng th ng vng c, n cng phi r vi nhng

50
Tc l, chng ti lm cc hp ng giao vo thi im tng lai ng bt Thi Lan v
ringggit Malaysia m hin thi chng ti khng nm.
GEORGE SOROS
___________________________________________________

210
ngi khc. Tuy nhin, khng hong khng n ra cho n
thng By 1997, khi cc nh chc trch Thi Lan t b neo v
th ni ng tin. Khng hong n mun hn d kin ca
chng ti v cc nh chc trch tin t a phng tip tc
ng h ng tin ca mnh qu lu v cc ngn hng quc t
tip tc ko di tn dng, mc d h phi thy im g. S
tr hon khng nghi ng g ng gp vo tnh gay gt ca
khng hong. Cc khon d tr rng tuych, v s v,
khi n n, ln hn mc cn thit. T Thi Lan, s v
ca neo tin lan nhanh sang Malaysia, Indonesia, Philippene,
Hn Quc, v cc nc khc. Nhng vi nc khc b cun
vo khng hong chu khng c neo dollar phi chnh
thc. Th th, cc nc b nh hng c ci g chung? Mt s
ngi l l rng vn l s ph thuc chung ca h vo dng
mo m hoc cha chn mui ca ch t bn nay c m
t mit th l ch ngha t bn cnh hu nhng trc kia
c ca tng l m hnh chu. C s tht no cho l l
, song qui khng hong c th cho cc c tnh chu hin
nhin khng cho ta bc tranh y , v sau khng hong
lan sang M Latin, Nga, v ng u. Trn thc tin tt c
cc nc ngoi vi b tc ng, mc d cc nc c cc th
trng vn khp kn v cc nc cho php ng tin ca mnh
mt gi lm n kh hn.


Kh c th trnh kt lun rng bn thn h thng ti chnh
quc t to nn thnh t chnh trong b. N chc chn
ng mt vai tr tch cc mi nc, d cho cc thnh phn
khc thay i t nc ny sang nc kia. Kt lun ny kh
ho gii vi quan nim rng ri rng cc th trng ti chnh
c khuynh hng tin n cn bng. Nu quan im ca ti l
ng, th thi hng ti gi cc th trng ti chnh di
s kim sot no nn c xem xt li trit . kim tra
lun im ny, hy lit k cc thnh phn khc lin quan v
sau nhn vo din tin tht ca cc s kin.

Khng hong ti chnh 1997-1999
__________________________________________________



211


Ci cht ca M hnh chu

c nhiu im yu v c cu trong cc nn kinh t chu.
Hu ht cc doanh nghip c gia nh s hu, v ph hp
vi truyn thng Khng gio cc gia nh mun iu hnh
kinh doanh cho li ch ring ca h. Nu h pht hnh c
phn cho cng chng, h c thin hng coi nh quyn ca
cc c ng thiu s. n mc khi h khng th ti tr tng
trng bng thu nhp, h a da vo tn dng hn l ri ro
mt s kim sot. ng thi, cc quan chc chnh ph
dng tn dng ngn hng nh cng c ca chnh sch cng
nghip; h cng dng chng thng gia nh v bn b
mnh. c mi quan h lon lun gia gii kinh doanh v
chnh ph, m y ch l mt cch biu hin. S kt hp ny
to ra cc t l n-trn-vn c phn rt cao v mt khu vc
ti chnh chng minh bch cng khng lnh mnh. tng
rng cc ngn hng c th thc hin k lut no vi cc
cng ti m h cho vay n gin khng c p dng.
51

Th d, nn kinh t Hn Quc c ch ng bi cc tp
on do gia nh kim sot, cc chaebol. Chaebol dng n
by ti chnh cao. T l n-trn-vn c phn trung bnh ca ba
mi chaebol ln nht (tnh gin tip chim khong 35 phn
trm sn xut cng nghip Hn Quc) l 388 phn trm nm
1996, vi chaebol c bit ln n 600-700 phn trm. Vo
cui thng Ba 1998, trung bnh tng ln 593 phn trm.
Cc ng ch dng s kim sot ca mnh bo lnh cho
khon n ca cc thnh vin khc ca tp on, do vi
phm quyn ca cc c ng thiu s. Lm cho vn ti
hn, cc cng ti Hn Quc hot ng vi bin li nhun rt
thp: Mc bo chng tr li
*
ca ba mi chaebol ln nht
nm 1996 l 1,3 nhng ch cn 0,97 vo nm 1997 (c ngha

51
Nhiu ngi l l rng cho vay ngn hng l mt c ch ch cht hnh s kim sot
chnh tr ln kinh doanh Chu . Xem, th d, Joseph E. Stiglitz, Credit Markets and the
Control of Capital, Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking 17 (2) (May 1985): 150.
*
T s ca thu nhp sau thu trn li vn vay.
GEORGE SOROS
___________________________________________________

212
rng chi ph tr li vay khng c m bo bi thu nhp).
Cc ngn hng Hn Quc m rng tn dng d dng nh mt
phn ca chnh sch cng nghip. Chnh ph quyt nh
khuyn khch cc ngnh no , v cc chaebol lao vo, s
rng h c th b loi ra. iu ny dn n s m rng hp tp
m khng n li nhun. kha cnh ny, Hn Quc
bt chc c ch Nht Bn ca nhng ngy u, nhng ho
ra l mt s bt chc th thin mt m hnh tinh t hn
nhiu. Nh ti nhc ti trc, Nht Bn hng li ca
cc nh ch dn ch, cn Hn Quc c c ti qun s
sut phn ln lch s hu chin ca mnh. Truyn thng ng
thun ca Nht Bn v kim tra v cn i c trng cho mt
nn dn ch thiu ( Hn Quc).
Khi cc khon vay khng tr c bt u tch lu, cc
ngn hng Hn Quc kim cch ra khi l hng bng vay
thm ch nhiu tin hn nc ngoi v u t vo cc cng
c c li tc cao v ri ro cao cc nc nh Indonesia, Nga,
Ukraine, v Brazil. y l mt nhn t ng gp quan
trng trong khng hong Hn Quc.


Khng phi l cc ngn hng Nht hot ng tt hn
nhiu. Rc ri ca Nht Bn truy nguyn v tn v 1987
ca Wall Street. H thng ti chnh Nht c B Ti chnh
(MOF) kim sot cht ch. Cc quan chc MOF to thnh
gii u t tr tu, so c vi Inspecteurs de Finance Php.
H hiu tnh phn thn tt hn bt k nhm no khc m ti
gp, v h hnh dung tng v i rng Nht Bn c
th chuyn sc mnh cng nghip ca n sang a v thng tr
ti chnh bng cung cp thanh khon (tin mt) cho th gii.
Khi nim c mt quan chc MOF gii thch r cho ti sau
sp 1987. ng ta m bo vi ti rng s khng c lp
li ca 1929 v Nht Bn s lm trn ngp th gi bng thanh
khon. ng tic nhng ngi Nht khng tnh n mt
kha cnh quan trng ca tnh phn thn - c th l, tnh c th
sai ring ca h ci dn n cc hu qu khng ch . Quyt
Khng hong ti chnh 1997-1999
__________________________________________________



213
nh ca h p o cho vay quc t gip th gii khc phc
cc tc ng ca sp Wall Street, nhng n cc nh
ch ti chnh Nht vi nhiu tn tht nc ngoi. Chnh
sch ca Nht cng gy ra mt bong bng ti chnh v bt
ng sn trong nc t nh im vo nm 1991. Do s
kim sot cht ca n vi cc nh ch ti chnh, MOF c
kh nng lm xp bong bng m khng c v - ln u tin
trong lch s mt k cng nh vy c thc hin. Nhng n
li nhiu ti sn xu khng tiu ho c lm mng m
cc bn tng kt ti sn ca cc nh ch ti chnh. S gim
st gi tr ti sn ko di hn nhng khng km nghim trng
hn gi nh n do sp gy ra. Ch s th trng c phiu
Nikkei gim t nh cao 39.000 vo thng Ging 1991 xung
nh thp 14.000 vo thng Tm 1992 v mt y th hai
12.800 vo thng Mi 1998. S gim st gi tr bt ng sn
cn ln hn v ko di hn. Tin ca ngi ng thu
khng th dng cu vt cc ngn hng cho n khi nhu cu
tr nn khng th cng li c; ngay c khi , tp qun
Nht i hi rng cc quan chc ca MOF phi b trng pht,
v cui cng h b. Khng ngc nhin l MOF cng li
tng v ti c cu trit cng lu cng tt.
Khi khng hong chu n ra, Nht Bn tin hnh chnh
sch gim thm ht ngn sch. Chnh xc l chnh sch sai,
v khng hong chu n chnh xc khng ng lc. Cc
ngn hng Nht, c cc khon vay ln b ri ro Thi Lan,
Indonesia, v Hn Quc, bt u gim bng tng kt ti sn
ca mnh, gy ra thu hp tn dng gia trn ngp thanh khon.
Ngi tiu dng, b khng hong chu v vi v ph sn
trong nc lm hong ht, tng thin hng tit kim ca
h. Li sut thp khuyn khch vn chuyn ra nc ngoi.
ng yen st gi v nn kinh t trt vo suy thoi. Cui
cng chnh ph c thuyt phc ct gim thu v dng
tin cng ti cp vn cho cc ngn hng, nhng l qu t
v qu mun. Suy thoi Nht Bn, nn kinh t ln th hai
trn th gii v mt i tc thng mi quan trng ca cc
GEORGE SOROS
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214
nc chu khc, lm trm trng thm s suy sp kinh t
khp Chu .


Chng ta c th nhn ra nhiu thiu st trong m hnh
chu v pht trin kinh t: yu km v c cu trong h thng
ngn hng v s hu doanh nghip, mi quan h lon lun
gia kinh doanh v chnh tr, thiu minh bch, v khng c t
do chnh tr. Mc d nhng thiu st ny hin din nhiu
nc b nh hng, chng c thiu st no trong s hin
din tt c cc nc: Hng Kng hu nh khng mc phi,
Nht Bn v i Loan c t do chnh tr; s hu gia nh ca
cc cng ti ch yu khng c trng cho Nht Bn; Singapore
c mt h thng ngn hng mnh.
Hn na, m hnh chu vi t cch nh th l mt
chin lc pht trin kinh t rt thnh cng v c gii kinh
doanh ngng m rng ri. M hnh chu to ra s gia
tng y n tng v mc sng, tng trng thu nhp trn u
ngi trung bnh 5,5 phn trm mt nm sut mt thi k di -
s tng trng nhanh hn tng trng t c bt k
nn kinh t no trong cng thi gian v bt k thi im no
ca lch s thnh vn. V th ngay c khi khng hong bc
l, cc nh lnh o chu nh Lee Kwan Yu ca Singapore,
Suharto Indonesia, v Mahathir ca Malaysia t ho tuyn
b nim tin ca h rng cc gi tr chu u vit hn cc gi
tr Ty phng. H i xa n mc thch thc Tuyn b
Ph qut v Nhn quyn ca Lin Hp Quc. Lee Kwan Yu
coi cc nn dn ch Ty phng l suy i, Mahathir tc
gin truyn thng ca ch ngha thc dn, v Suharto ca
tng c hnh ca ch ngha gia nh tr. Hip hi cc Quc
gia ng Nam (ASEAN) kt np Myanmar (Min in)
lm thnh vin thng Su 1997 - mt thch thc trc tip i
vi cc nn dn ch Ty phng, cc nc coi ch p bc
ca Myanmar l khng th chp nhn c v mt chnh tr
v con ngi. (S ln n cng khai ca ti vi bc i ca
ASEAN c th kch Mahathir tn cng li ti).
Khng hong ti chnh 1997-1999
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215
Mt m hnh pht trin kinh t thnh cng n vy sao li
ho ra xu i n th nhanh n vy? Cu hi khng th c
tr li m khng tnh n cc sai st ca h thng t bn ton
cu. S thc rng khng hong chu khng gii hn Chu
m nhn chm tt c cc th trng mi ni trc khi n kt
thc cng c thc t rng ngun bt n nh ch yu phi thy
bn thn h thng ti chnh quc t.


Bt n nh ca Ti chnh Quc t

Nhn vo h thng, phi phn bit gia cc nh u t trc
tip, cc nh u t chng khon, cc ngn hng thng mi,
v cc nh chc trch ti chnh nh IMF v cc ngn hng
trung ng. Cc nh u t trc tip, nh cc cng ti a quc
gia, khng ng vai tr bt n nh c l tr t bo him v
u c vi thanh khon ca h. Trong trng hp cc nh u
t chng khon, chng ta c th lc ra cc nh u t nh ch
cai qun tin ca nhng ngi khc, cc qu t bo him s
dng n by (vn vay), v cc nh u t c nhn.
Cc nh u t nh ch o thnh tch tng i vi nhau,
to ra mt by nhng ngi theo xu hng. H phn b ti
sn ca mnh gia cc th trng quc gia khc nhau; khi mt
th trng tng gi tr h cm thy c ngha v tng phn b
ca mnh v ngc li. Ngoi ra, cc qu u t tn thc chc
c th hp dn cc nh u t khi chng lm n tt v mt h
khi chng b tn tht. Cc nh u t nh ch khng y
nhanh s v, nhng h lm trm trng n, u tin bng
qu lu khi d chu, ri qu gp gp khi rt i. Thng h
l nhng ngi bn bt buc nhm tho mn vic chuc li.
Cc nh qun l qu t bo him v nhng ngi khc u
c vi tin vay ng mt vai tr tng t. Khi gp vn h
c th tng c cc ca mnh ln; khi thua h buc phi bn
gim n by. y cng l mt ngun ly ch yu: Cc
nh u t v nhng ngi u c chu tn tht mt th
trng thng phi buc bn i cc th trng khc. Quyn
GEORGE SOROS
___________________________________________________

216
chn (option), t bo him (hedge), v cc cng c phi sinh
(derivative) khc c tnh cht tng cng xu hng tng t.
Cc nh qun l qu t bo him v nhng ngi u c khc
c th mua bn tin trc tip m khng mua hay bn chng
khon. Cc ngn hng cng vy, c cho bn thn h v cho
cc khch hng ca h. Cc ngn hng l quan trng hn
nhiu trong cc th trng tin t so vi cc qu t bo him,
nhng phi tha nhn rng cc qu t bo him nh qu ca
ti c ng mt vai tr trong ri lon tin t chu. V cc
qu t bo him hay quan tm n thnh tch tuyt i hn l
thnh tch tng i, chng chc dnh lu tch cc hn vo
y nhanh thay i xu hng. Tt nhin, iu ny phi h ra
cho ph phn khi s thay i l kh chu, song, nu mt xu
hng l khng th duy tr c, th chc chn tt nu n i
chiu sm hn l mun. Th d, bng bn non ng bt Thi
thng Ging 1997 Quantum Fund do cng ti qun l qu ca
ti qun l gi mt tn hiu th trng l ng bt c th
c nh gi cao. Gi nh cc nh chc trch phn ng
vi s suy yu cc khon d tr, s iu chnh c th xy ra
sm hn v t au n hn. Song cc nh chc trch d
tr ca h chy xung; s v, khi n n, th thm.
iu ny nu ra cu hi liu u c tin t c ng mong
mun hay khng. Xt li bng chng, trong khng hong hin
thi cc nc vi ng tin t do chuyn i chu s trc
trc ti hn cc nc duy tr s kim sot no v bun bn
tin. Thi Lan m hn Malaysia, v Thi Lan b trc trc ln
hn; Trung Hoa lc a t b nh hng hn Hng Kng, mc
d Hng Kng c h thng ngn hng v ti chnh lnh mnh
hn nhiu. Trng hp ca Trung Hoa i li Hng Kng l
c bit c sc thuyt phc v mt h thng ngn hng yu
hay lm trm trng khng hong. Nu gi nh ng nhn dn
t c th bun bn t do, h thng ngn hng Trung Quc
phi b sp . C suy ra rng phi cm u c tin t? Khng
cn thit. Th nht, cn xa mi chc rng u c tin t l c
hi. Nh chng ta thy trong trng hp ca Thi Lan, u
c c th cho cc tn hiu th trng hu ch. Th hai, ngay c
Khng hong ti chnh 1997-1999
__________________________________________________



217
nu u c l c hi, bun bn tin t l khng th thiu c
cho thng mi quc t, u t quc t, v tip cn n h
thng ngn hng quc t. Chng ta vch ng ranh gii v
u c tin t u ph thuc vo giai on pht trin ca h
thng ngn hng v cc th trng ti chnh ni a. C cch
c th kim ch u c m khng can thip qu mc vo bun
bn tin hp php. Trong mi trng hp, hn hp chnh sch
ng n c th c quyt nh ch trn c s tng trng
hp mt. Trong cc nc chu, c l c qu nhiu p lc
t Hoa k v IMF m ca cc th trng ti chnh ni a
trc khi h c chun b thch hp cho vic ; y l
mt yu t ng gp quan trng cho khng hong.


iu ny dn chng ta n vi vai tr ca cc ngn hng
thng mi. Mi nc c h thng ngn hng v cc nh chc
trch iu tit ring ca mnh; chng tng tc thng qua mt
mng li rc ri to ra h thng ngn hng quc t. Mt
s ngn hng ln trung tm dnh su vo cc giao dch quc
t n mc t cch nh ngn hng quc t. Chng thng
s hu cc ngn hng ni a hoc tin hnh cc hot ng
trong nc nh tn dng tiu dng nhiu nc. Hu ht cc
nc dnh n khng hong 1997-1999, tuy vy, c cc h
thng ngn hng tng i khp kn, tc l t ngn hng trong
nc do nc ngoi s hu. Hng Kng v Singapore l cc
ngoi l: Cc ngn hng ch yu c t cch quc t.
Cc ngn hng quc t v trong nc lin kt vi nhau
bng cc mc tn dng xc nh cc gii hn tham gia vo cc
giao dch khc nhau nh bun bn tin t, hon i li sut, v
cc giao dch ging th. Chng cng c th kt ni qua tn
dng di hn. C cc mc tn dng ln khon vay c c
nh bng dollar hay ng tin mnh no . cc nc nh
Hn Quc v Thi Lan c bo lnh ngm nh hay tng
minh t ngn hng trung ng cho ngha v ca cc ngn
hng thng mi ch yu. Cc bo lnh gii thch s min
GEORGE SOROS
___________________________________________________

218

cng ca cc ngn hng quc t gim mc tn dng ca
h ngay c khi h c th thy trc trc ang ti.
Trong cc nc m ng tin c neo mt cch chnh
thc hay phi chnh thc vo ng dollar, cc ngn hng trong
nc v nhng ngi vay cho rng neo c th vng. Thng
h khng t bo him chng li ri ro tin t. Cho nn khi
cui cng neo v h thy mnh vi nhng ri ro tin t ln
khng c bo him. Tranh cp v tin cc, h to mt p
lc khng khip ln cc ng tin a phng bng cch mua
ng tin ghi trong kh c vay. Cc ng tin lao xung qu
mc, gy ra s xu i t ngt trong bng tng kt ti sn ca
nhng ngi i vay. Th d, Siam Cement, cng ti ln nht v
mnh nht Thi Lan, chu mt khon tn tht 52,6 t bt nm
1997 so vi vn c phn ban u 42,3 t bt v li nhun 6,8 t
bt nm 1996.
52
Cc cng ti yu hn lm n ti hn nhiu.
Nhiu ngi i vay dng tin vay ti tr bt ng sn,
v gi tr bt ng sn suy sp ri khi neo tin b v. t
nhin c c ri ro tn dng cng nh ri ro tin t, lm gim
s sn lng ca nhng ngi cho vay m rng tn dng.
Cng vi s trn chy ca cc nh u t nc ngoi khi cc
th trng suy sp, iu ny to ra mt qu trnh t tng
cng gy ra st gi ng bt 42 phn trm v 59 phn trm
th trng c phiu Thi Lan (tnh bng ng tin a phng)
gia thng By 1997 v cui thng Tm 1998. Kt qu kt
hp l tn tht 76 phn trm tnh bng dollar trong mi bn
thng. (So vi 86 phn trm tn tht ca Wall Street trong ba
nm gia thng Mi 1929 v thng T 1933).
S hong lon lan sang cc nc lng ging bi cc th
trng ti chnh - ti dng hnh tng v mt tri ph; nhng
ngi khc m t s ly ti chnh nh dng hin i ca bnh
dch hch. S thiu cn bng mt vi nn kinh t b khng
hong t r rt hn. Nn kinh t Malaysia qu nng, nhng
s bnh trng tin t ch yu l ni b; v thm ht thng
mi kh khim tn. Tuy nhin, Malaysia b n nng ht nh

52
T gi hi oi l 24,35 bt cho mt dollar M trc khi neo tin b loi b ngy 2 thng
By 1997; t gi l 45,9 vo cui nm.
Khng hong ti chnh 1997-1999
__________________________________________________



219

Thi Lan. Nhng ci cn bn Indonesia xem ra kh lnh
mnh; vn ch yu l Indonesia vay qu nhiu t cc
ngn hng Hn Quc v Nht Bn cc ngn hng c cc
vn ring ca chng v khng v th c th gia hn
cc khon cho vay ca mnh. Th m, s tn ph Indonesia
ln hn nhiu Thi Lan. Khi ng dollar Hng Kng b
tn cng, h thng hi ng tin t gy ra tng li sut a
phng ci n lt n ko gi tr bt ng sn v c phiu
xung. Cc ngn hng quc t kinh doanh vi cc ngn hng
Hng Kng pht hin ra ri ro tn dng trc y cha c
bit. Khi h tham gia hon i li sut gip lng,
53
h gi
thit rng ri ro l nh nhau c hai pha, v th cc ri ro tn
dng kh ln nhau; mau chng h nhn ra rng nu t gi hi
oi thay i i tc Hng Kng ca h t ngt n h nhiu
tin hn h n i tc Hng Kng. iu ny buc cc ngn
hng quc t ct bt mc tn dng cho Hng Kng. Th
trng Hng Kng st 62 phn trm trc khi cc nh chc
trch can thip n nh th trng.
Ri ro tn dng tr thnh vn thm ch ln hn Hn
Quc, ni mt s ngn hng thc s khng thc hin c
bo lnh ca mnh. Khng lu trc khi khng hong ti
chnh buc Thi Lan, ri n Hn Quc v Indonesia, tm
IMF kim h tr.


Vai tr ca Qu Tin t Quc t (IMF)

IMF thy mnh i mt vi cc vn m n trc kia cha
tng gp phi. Khng hong chu l mt khng hong phc
tp, vi mt thnh phn tin t v mt thnh phn tn dng.
Thnh phn tn dng, ln lt, c kha cnh quc t v kha
cnh ni a, v tt c cc thnh phn khc nhau tng tc vi
nhau. Ci lm cho khng hong chu khc vi bt k khng

53
Hon i nh vy xy ra khi mt ngn hng chuyn i khon vay gia li sut c nh v
li sut thay i i vi khch hng ca mnh i li s chuyn i ngc ca ngn hng
nc ngoi tng ng ca n.
GEORGE SOROS
___________________________________________________

220
hong no trc l n c xut x t khu vc t nhn; khu
vc cng cng tng i lnh mnh.
IMF k n thuc truyn thng c dng khi khu vc
cng cng gp rc ri: tng li sut v gim chi tiu chnh ph
nhm n nh ng tin v khi phc lng tin ca cc nh u
t nc ngoi. N nhn ra cc thiu st c cu tng nc
ring v cng p t cc iu kin may o sn, nh ng ca
cc nh ch ti chnh khng lnh mnh. Nhng cc chng
trnh ca IMF khng khi phc c lng tin ca cc nh
u t quc t v chng ch cp vi kha cnh ca khng
hong, khng phi tt c. V cc kha cnh tng quan vi
nhau, chng ci no c th c cha mt cch tch bit. c
bit, cc ng tin khng th c n nh cho n khi cc
vn n c gii quyt, v cc con n x i m bo ri
ro ca mnh ko ng tin xung, v ng tin yu n lt
n li tng ri ro ca cc con n theo mt vng lun qun.
V sao IMF khng nhn ra iu ny? C l cu tr li l
IMF khng pht trin mt phng php lun gii quyt
cc bt cn i trong khu vc t nhn; chc chn mt s quan
chc IMF c hiu bit khng tho ng v cc th trng
ti chnh hot ng ra sao. iu ny c minh chng
Indonesia, ni IMF khng khng i ng ca mt s ngn
hng m khng lp cc khon d phng bo v nhng
ngi gi tin, gy ra rt tin t hu nh tt c cc ngn
hng. (S thiu hiu bit tng t t ra Nga mun hn).
Indonesia, s hong lon ti chnh lm yu quyt tm
ca tng thng Suharto tun theo cc iu kin ca chng
trnh cu tr ca IMF m ng khng a ri v n chm n
nhng c li ca gia nh v bn b ng. Cuc ci v gia
Suharto v IMF y ng rupiah ri t do. Soros Fund
Management b thit hi ln v chng ti mua ng
rupiah Indonesia khong bn ngn rupiah mt dollar, ngh
rng ng tin lao xung qu ri t 2.430 rupiah mt dollar
k t thng By 1997. N tip tc ri xung nhanh chng hn
16.000 - mt kinh nghim i. Ti thc y v s
tham nhng ca ch Suharto, v ti khng khng i
Khng hong ti chnh 1997-1999
__________________________________________________



221
bn c phn ca chng ti trong mt nh my in Indonesia
trong cc thnh vin gia nh Suharto c li ch ti chnh
n thun v ti khng mun b gn vi h. Th m chng
ti y, mt tin Indonesia ng khi n g v chung
ng.
IMF b ph phn do a ra qu nhiu iu kin v can thip
qu nhiu vo cng vic ni b ca cc nc nh n tr gip
ca n. Cng vic ca IMF l ci g, ngi ta hi, nu mt ch
l tham nhng hoc c cu ngn hng v cng nghip qu
thin dng vn vay? Tt c ci c ngha ch l mt nc
phi c kh nng tho mn cc ngha v ca mnh. Cng vic
ca IMF l gip kim ch khng hong thanh khon (tin
mt); cc vn c cu tt nht l cho nc lin quan.
Ti li l l ngc li. Cc khng hong thanh khon lin h
khng th tch khi vi nhng bt cn i c cu. Khi cc
ngn hng v cng ti mc qu nhiu n nn, tnh hnh ca h
khng th c sa bng cho h vay nhiu hn - cn mt s
tim vn c phn. Rc ri l trong mt khng hong c vn c
phn mi ln tn dng thm u khng sn c.
Gii php hiu qu duy nht l p t mt tho thun hon
tr n tip theo mt s chuyn n thnh vn, nhng iu
vt qu xa quyn lc v kh nng ca IMF. N c th
lm gim nh p lc ln t gi hi oi v trnh phi p t li
sut trng pht; c th t nhng iu chnh c cu cn thit
m khng y cc nc vo suy thoi. Nhng n khng th
c thc hin m khng c s tp hp ch chnh tr cn
thit c trong nc ln quc t. Kim Dae Jung Hn Quc
c th hoan nghnh n, nhng khng chc Suharto ca
Indonesia li tn thnh. Trong mi trng hp, khng th hnh
dung c rng cng ng quc t, c bit l Kho Bc Hoa
K, c th dung th mt s hon tr n tm thi. iu c
th gy chn ng thng qua h thng ngn hng quc t v
y nhanh nhng trc trc xy ra mun hn lin quan n
v n ca Nga. N cng biu hin cho s on tuyt hon
ton vi cc tp qun qu kh. Ton b hc thuyt ca IMF
c dng ln quanh nhu cu bo v li ch ca h thng
GEORGE SOROS
___________________________________________________

222
ngn hng quc t. iu ny ang c xem xt li, nhng
ch sau khi khng hong qua i. Bi vy cc s kin din
ra nh trong mt bi kch Hi Lp. V d l ti c cu n thnh
vn c phn khng th trnh khi ang din ra, ch sau khi
cc nc tri qua mt kinh nghim tan hoang.
Hin nhin y c vn mang tnh h thng, v IMF l
mt phn ca vn hn l gii php. IMF hin nay ang
trong khng hong ring ca mnh. Lng tin th trng l
mt thnh t thit yu trong thnh cng qu kh ca n, v uy
tn ca n b suy yu. Cc nh ch ti chnh quc t cng
thy mnh b p lc t Quc hi M. Quan trng nht, bn
thn IMF mt nim tin vo hc thuyt ch o cc hot
ng ca n trong qu kh, v n ang tht bi v n lc tm
cch cu khu vc t nhn. Ti s kho st ti ny y
hn Chng 10.


Khng hong Lan ra

Ma thu 1997 s sp Indonesia t cc ngn hng Hn
Quc vo th th v lm xi mn lng tin ca nhng ngi
cho vay quc t vo h thng ngn hng Hn Quc. T Hn
Quc tri ph bn sang Nga v Brazil, trn ng st qua
ng u v ph hu Ukraine. Cc ngn hng Hn Quc
u t Nga v Brazil, nhng ngi Brazil u t Nga.
Nhng ngi Hn Quc v Brazil phi thanh l s c phiu
h ang nm gi, v Brazil v Nga phi tng li sut
cao bo v ng tin ca h khi b bn. Brzil dng
khng hong a ra nhng ci cch c cu cn n t lu,
gip km ch tnh hnh - nhng ch c vi thng.
Khng hong quc t t nh im u tin ca n vo
cui thng Mi Hai 1997 khi, bt chp chng trnh ca
IMF, cc ngn hng nc ngoi t chi gia hn cc khon vay
ca h i vi cc ngn hng Hn Quc. Cc ngn hng trung
ng phi can thip v dng sc mnh buc cc ngn hng
thng mi di quyn hn ca chng gia hn cc khon vay
Khng hong ti chnh 1997-1999
__________________________________________________



223
ca mnh. Mt gi cu tr th hai ca IMF cng c a ra.
Ngay sau s hong s bt u du i. Ch tch Cc D tr
Lin bang Alan Greenspan ni r rng cc trc trc chu
loi tr bt k kh nng tng li sut no, v cc th trng
tri phiu v c phiu hng hi ln. Tri ph dng li m
khng thm nhp vo M Latin, ngoi tr c va p ban u
vo Brazil. C Hn Quc v Thi Lan hng li t bu c
ra cc chnh ph ton tm cho ci cch. Ch Indonesia tip tc
xu i, v cui cng Suharto b buc ri quyn lc. Xut hin
nhng ngi lng c phiu gi hi; cc ng tin mnh ln;
v vo cui thng Ba 1998 cc th trng c phiu chu, k
c Indonesia, phc hi gia mt phn ba v mt na tn
tht ca h (ln na, c o bng ng tin a phng).
y l s phc hi in hnh sau suy sp ln ca th trng.
l mt bnh minh gi. S sp ti chnh ko theo suy
sp kinh t. Cu ni a cc nc mc n nhiu chng li v
nhp khu co li, cn xut khu tnh bng dollar khng m
rng v cc ng tin mt gi. Mt phn ln xut khu l sang
cc nc cng b nh hng. Ngoi ra, xut khu tp trung
vo mt s hn ch cc mt hng ni p lc bn ko gi
xung. Cc cht bn dn, trong Hn Quc, i Loan, v,
mc t hn, Nht Bn ginh git th trng th gii, c bit
b n nng. S suy sp kinh t nhanh chng lan sang cc
nc ban u khng b dnh vo. Nht Bn trt di vo suy
thoi, v tnh hnh kinh t Trung Quc xu i. Hng Kng
cng nm di p lc mi li. St gim gi hng ho, c bit
l du, gy thit hi cho Nga v cc nc sn xut hng ho.
Vn Nht Bn hu nh hon ton mang tnh ni b.
Chnh ph Nht, cn c vo d tr tin khng l v thng d
thng mi ln v gia tng, c nng lc ti vn ho h
thng ngn hng v kch thch nn kinh t. ng tic, cc
chnh sch ca n b quan nim sai dn dt. Cc ngn hng
phi ph sn v b trng pht trc khi c th dng n tin
cng cng. Cc nh ngn hng v cc quan chc ca B Ti
chnh lm tt c trong thm quyn ca mnh tr hon
ngy xui xo y. Kt qu l mt t thu hp tn dng y
GEORGE SOROS
___________________________________________________

224
nn kinh t vo suy thoi, gy p lc kinh khng ln cc nc
chu khc.
Trung Quc i mt vi cng cc kh khn nh Hn Quc.
N c mt h thng ngn hng c ch dn bi chnh tr hn
l bi cn nhc thng mi, v tch t n xu thm ch cn ti
hn Hn Quc. c boom (hng thnh bt pht) gh gm v
pht trin nh t (vo lc khng hong chu n ra ngi ta
ni rng na s cn cu ca th gii ang hot ng Thng
Hi). Dng u t nc ngoi chy vo - vi 70 phn trm
ca ton b l t Hoa Kiu - tm ngng li.
S khc bit ln - thc ra l ci b li khim khuyt ca
Trung Quc - l ng tin ca n khng chuyn i c;
nu khc i th tri ph chc chn s lm vic ca mnh bt
chp cc khon d tr tin chnh thc khng l. Trung Quc
c cc khon vay ngoi t tn ng m ln ca n, nh
cc nc chu khc, khng c bo co mt cch tin cy,
v cc nh u t nc ngoi, c bit l Hoa Kiu, c l
b chy, hoc ch t t bo him cc khon u t ca mnh
trn th trng k hn, nu h c c hi. Nh tnh hnh ny,
kim sot vn mua thi gian cho chnh ph.
Chnh ph Trung Quc n lc s dng khong thi
gian y kch cu ni a. ng Cng sn Trung Quc
mt s u tr ca tri trong cuc thm st Thin An Mn,
nn n phi chu cp s phn vinh trn mt t c tha
th. iu ny c ngha l mt s tng trng 8 phn trm.
Nhng cc u tu ca tng trng - xut khu v u t nc
ngoi - hin nay b tt. Cu ni a phi th ch ca chng.
Chnh ph phi vin n cc n thuc tt c ca Keynes:
khuyn khch cc d n h tng c s ln v c gng kch
thch xy dng nh . Trung Quc quyt tm trnh ph gi
ng tin ca mnh v mt s l do. N mun nng cao a v
ca mnh trn th gii, xy dng mt mi quan h mnh m
hn vi Hoa K, v gia nhp T chc Thng mi Th gii
(WTO); n cng s gy ra cc bin php bo h tr a Hoa
K nu n ph gi. Ph gi cng c th lm xi mn hi ng
tin Hng Kng, v chnh ph Trung Quc nhit tnh cam kt
Khng hong ti chnh 1997-1999
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225
vi tng mt nc, hai h thng kinh t v n mun
Trung Hoa lc a tr nn ging Hng Kng hn. N cng
mun to tin l thun li cho thng nht vi i Loan trong
tng lai.
Vo ma h 1998 cn xa mi r liu cc chnh sch ny c
hot ng hay khng. Chnh ph Trung Quc hi vng t
cng hiu qu nh ph gi bng cch p t hn ch nhp
khu v tr cp xut khu, nhng c bun bn nhn nhp
v cc mt hng nhp khu b mt, c bit vi cc doanh
nghip gn vi Qun Gii phng Nhn dn, iu xn bt
cu v cc sn phm ni a. H thng ngn hng v cc bng
tng kt ti sn ca cc doanh nghip nh nc (SOE) Trung
Quc tip tc xu i. Thng d thng mi l o tng v mi
loi bun lu. Cc khon d tr chnh thc va duy tr v
s o tu vn tr hnh. Cc bc khuyn khch s hu nh
t nhn c nh hng ngc khuyn khch tit kim. H
thng ngn hng s dng cc khon tit kim duy tr cc
doanh nghip quc doanh hp hi, iu ch lm tng n nn
ca nh nc vi cc cng dn ca mnh m khng kch thch
nn kinh t. Cn n nhng ci cch c cu trit , nhng
chng b ngng li v chng c th gy ra no ng x
hi.

Khng hong ti chnh ton cu t nh im cui cng
ca n vo ma thu 1998 khi Nga v n trong nc, do
lm rung chuyn h thng ti chnh quc t gn li ca n
v gy ra s gn v n ca Long Term Capital Management
(LTCM), mt qu t bo him c n by cao (dng nhiu
vn vay).
Ti s phn tch kinh nghim Nga chi tit hn Chng 9.
Hin ti, hy tp trung vo nh hng ca s v n ca Nga
ln cc th trng ti chnh. Cc th trng trung tm
vt qua khng hong ngoi vi mt cch xut sc. Gi c
phiu v tri phiu thc t hng li t s du i ca p lc
lm pht. Cc D tr Lin bang sp tng li sut khi khng
hong chu n ra; s loi b mi e do n nh mt
GEORGE SOROS
___________________________________________________

226

s lm nh bt cho cc th trng. chnh lch (spread)
gia cc cng c ti chnh t ri ro v nhiu ri ro hn ni
rng ra nh mt kt qu ca khng hong, v cc ngn hng
vi nhiu khon ri ro cc nc ngoi vi c thin hng
gim ri ro bn tng kt ti sn ca mnh, nhng cho n
khi Nga v n p lc gim pht ny c km ch tt.
V n ca Nga lm thay i tt c. Mt s ngn hng v
ngn hng u t dnh nhiu n ti tr cc ngn hng
Nga, u c vo tn phiu kho bc ni a Nga thng qua cc
giao dch tin cng nh tn dng; h cng c mt s
exposure
*
trc tip, c cho ring h v cho khch hng. By
gi h i mt vi bt ton xo s. Nhng tm quan trng ca
nh hng trc tip ny lu m i so vi cc nh hng gin
tip. Rt cuc, th trng tn phiu kho bc Nga b to so vi
cc th trng hon i v chnh lch quc t khc nhau:
tri phiu chnh ph i li cc chng khon bo lnh bng
vn t th chp; tn phiu kho bc i li Eurodollar;
Eurodollar i li Eurosterling; li sut c nh i li li sut
thay i, v vn vn. Cc phng giao dch ring ca cc ngn
hng ln v ngn hng u t cng nh mt vi qu t bo
him (khng phi ca ti) tham gia kinh doanh cc
chnh lch ny: mua cc th dng nh c nh gi thp, k
vng rng cc chnh lch s tr li mc bnh thng hn.
Cc chnh lch ny t mc hay gn mc k lc ri v
khng hong chu; by gi chng ln n kch trn.
Ngi chi ln nht trong lnh vc ny l LTCM, qu t
bo him c lp ra bi John Merriweather v nhm ca ng
khi h ri b Salomon Brathers, mt ngn hng u t ln
by gi l mt phn ca Citigroup. H thnh cng, mang
li li tc tuyt vi cho cc nh u t ca mnh v c danh
ting cao nht. H dng cc m hnh tinh vi da trn l
thuyt th trng hiu qu cho bun bn, v h c hai kinh t
gia c gii Nobel trong hi ng qun tr ca mnh. Cc i
tc ca h sn sng bun bn vi h m khng i bt k

*
u t phi ra chu ri ro
Khng hong ti chnh 1997-1999
__________________________________________________



227
s chnh lch no. Ngoi ra h c kh nng nhn c tn
dng d phng ln khng c bo m. u 1998 h chia
c tc mt phn quan trng vn ca cc nh u t ca h
nhm tng li tc trn vn cn li. H c bng tng kt ti sn
hn 100 t $ v cc ngha v ngoi bng hn 1000 t $ vi vn
c phn 5 t $. By gi h chu tn tht ln, v vn c phn
ca h co li cn khong 600 triu $ vo thi im Ngn hng
D tr Lin bang New York triu tp cc i tc chnh ca
LTCM, nhng ngi c nhiu mt nht t s v n ca n,
n hp v khuyn khch h lp ra mt qu ln ngn
chn sp . Gi nh h khng lm vy, cc i tc c th
chu tn tht ln c trn exposure ca h vi LTCM v trn
ti khon ring ca h. Gi nh phi thanh l cc v th tn
ng, s kh tm ra ngi mua; hn na, kh nng tr c
n ca cc i tc s b nghi ng, y nhanh s hong lon c
in. Nhng Ngn hng D tr Lin bang New York can
thip. Cc th trng c phiu chu mt t suy gim tm thi,
nhng Cc D tr Lin bang gim li sut ba ln tip nhau
nhanh chng, v cc th trng ly li s bnh tnh ca
mnh. Sut na h thng ti chnh quc t n sp , v
l dp duy nht m cc th trng c phiu trung tm b
tc ng xu bi khng hong ti chnh ton cu.
Lc ti ang hon thnh cun The Crisis of Global
Capitalism ng sau khi Nga v n v ng trc gn ph sn
ca LTCM. Ti thy n ang n v b n nh hng rt
ln. N gt ti ra v lm cho ti tin on ci cht n ni ca
h thng t bn ton cu. y chnh xc ti vit th ny:


H thng t bn ton cu b th thch nghim trng trong
khng hong Mexico 1994-1995, nhng n sng st v
quay li mnh m hn bao gi ht. l khi giai on tng
tc xut hin v boom ngy cng tr nn khng lnh mnh.
S thc rng nhng ngi nm gi tn phiu kho bc Mexico
ni ln t khng hong v s nu mt tm gng xu cho
nhng ngi u c v tn phiu kho bc Nga. im ngot
GEORGE SOROS
___________________________________________________

228

n vi khng hong Thi thng By 1997. N o ngc
chiu ca dng tin chy
u tin, s o ngc lm li cho cc th trng ti
chnh trung tm v cc l do ti gii thch v xu th ln
gi trung tm cng mang li hi vng cho ngoi vi. Cc
th trng c phiu chu tr li hu nh chnh xc mt na
tn tht ca chng tnh bng tin a phng trc khi li li
li. iu ny c th c din gii nh giai on chng
vng. Cui cng cc th trng ti chnh trung tm cng
khng chng ni bust (suy sp). u tin s xi mn l t t
v dng tin chy vo cc qu u t tn thc vn dng,
nhng sp Nga y nhanh cao nh bn, cao nh c
mt s, nhng khng phi tt c, cc du hiu ca y th
trng. Ti tin rng n l ci y gi, ht nh y do cc th
trng c phiu chu gy ra u 1998 ho ra l gi. Ti
k vng mt s tr li n 50 phn trm nhng ti khng th
loi tr kh nng suy gim tip trc khi phc hi. Cui
cng cc th trng phi xung thp hn nhiu, dn ti mt
gim st ton cu. S tan r ca h thng t bn ton cu s
cn tr s phc hi, bin gim st thnh suy thoi.
C ba l do chnh v sao ti tin rng cha t n y. Mt
l s sp ca Nga tit l cc sai st trc kia b b qua
trong h thng ngn hng quc t. Cc ngn hng tham gia
hon i, giao dch k hn, v bun bn cc cng c phi
sinh vi nhau v vi cc khch hng. Cc giao dch ny
khng th hin trong bng tng kt ti sn ca cc ngn
hng.
Khi cc ngn hng Nga khng thc hin c cc ngha
v ca mnh, cc ngn hng Phng Ty b mc vo k c v
ring mnh v v khch hng ca mnh. Cc qu t bo him
v cc ti khon u c cng b tn tht ln. Cc ngn hng
by gi c gng mt cch in r hn ch exposure ca
h, gim n by vn vay, v gim ri ro. C phiu ca
ring h rt xung v mt s thu hp tn dng ton cu ang
hnh thnh.
54

Th hai, s au n ca ngoi vi tr nn cng thng
n mc cc nc ring bit bt u rt khi h thng t

54
K t , Long Term Capital Management sp vi nhng h qu tai hi. [Ch thch
nguyn bn (ca The Crisis of Global Capitalism)].
Khng hong ti chnh 1997-1999
__________________________________________________



229

bn ton cu hoc n gin ng xung bn l ng. u
tin l Indonesia ri n Nga, chu v hon ton kh
chu. Nhng g xy ra Malaysia v, mc t hn,
Hng Kng theo cch no thm ch cn ng ngi hn.
S sp Indonesia v Nga l khng c ch , cn
Malaysia ng mnh li khi cc th trng vn quc t mt
cch c ch . Hnh ng ca n mang li s nh bt tm
thi cho nn kinh t Malaysia v cho php cc nh cai tr ca
n duy tr quyn lc nhng, bng cch buc vn o tu
khi ngoi vi, n t thm p lc ln cc nc c gng gi
th trng ca h m. Nu s o tu vn lm cho Malaysia
c v tt hn cc nc lng ging, chnh sch c th d dng
tm thy nhng ngi bt chc.
Yu t ch yu th ba hot ng lm tan r h thng t
bn ton cu l s bt lc hin nhin ca cc nh chc trch
tin t quc t gi vng n li. Cc chng trnh ca IMF
c v khng hot ng v IMF ht tin. Phn ng ca cc
chnh ph G7 i vi khng hong Nga l khng tho ng
mt cch thm hi, v s mt kim sot tht l rng rn. Cc
th trng ti chnh rt l k, khc thng v kha cnh ny:
Chng ght bt k loi can thip chnh ph no nhng chng
li gi nim tin su sc rng nu tnh hnh thc s gay go th
cc nh chc trch s can thip. Nim tin ny by gi
lung lay.
55

Tng tc phn thn gia cc yu t ny dn ti i n
kt lun rng chng ta vt qu im giao nhau v s o
xu hng c tng cng bi s o ngc ca thin kin
thnh hnh. Cc s kin s din bin ra sao ch yu ph
thuc vo phn ng ca h thng ngn hng, cng chng u
t, v cc nh chc trch trung tm. Di xc sut tri t s
suy gim ni tip nhau ca cc th trng c phiu v mt
qu trnh xu i ko di hn.
Ti ngh s la chn sau c kh nng hn. C sc i vi
h thng ti chnh quc t chc s qua i; vic thanh l bt
buc cc v th s c hp thu. Mt trong cc ngun cng
thng chnh, l ng dollar mnh v ng yen yu, c
sa ri. Mt a im rc ri khc, Hng Kng, dng nh

55
Cc im ny xut hin trong iu trn trc Quc hi ca ti ngy 15 thng Chn, 1998.
[Ch thch nguyn bn].
GEORGE SOROS
___________________________________________________

230
tm c cch ly li kim sot v s phn ring ca
n. Nga c bt ton xo s. C trin vng ct li sut.
Cc c phiu st nhiu mc cho nhiu trong s
t ra hp dn. Cng chng hc c rng c li mua
cc qung trng trong mt th trng gi ln khng ngt v
s cn thi gian trc khi pht hin ra rng th trng gi ln
khng ko di mi mi. Cho nn cn thi gian cho ba lc
tiu cc chnh lm cho nh hng ca chng cm nhn
c.
Nhng tip theo rng ng gi s l mt th trng gi
xung ko di, ht nh trong cc nm 1930 v Chu
hin nay. Cng chng s dng mua qung trng v bt u
chuyn t c phiu sang cc qu th trng tin t hay sang
tn phiu kho bc. Hiu ng giu sang (ca ci) s ly ph
ca n v cu tiu dng s sa st. Cu u t cng s gim,
v mt s l do: Li nhun b p lc, nhp khu ca Hoa K
tng v xut khu gim, v cung vn cho cc doanh nghip t
danh ting hn v cho cc thng v bt ng sn cn kit.
Gim li sut s lm m cho sa st th trng v nn kinh t
c th cui cng s phc hi nu h thng t bn ton cu
gi vng vi nhau. Nhng xc sut tan r tng ln nhiu.
Nu v khi nn kinh t Hoa K gim bt hot ng, s sn
sng dung th thm ht thng mi ln s gim i v thng
mi t do b nguy him.
Trc y ti ngh rng khng hong chu c th
dn ti thng li cui cng ca ch ngha t bn: Cc cng ti
a quc gia s thay th cc gia nh Hoa Kiu v m hnh
chu c th c ng ho vo m hnh t bn ton cu.
iu vn c th xy ra, nhng by gi c nhiu kh nng
hn l cc nc ngoi vi s ngy cng rt khi h thng
khi trin vng ca h v thu ht vn t trung tm lu m i.
Cc ngn hng v cc nh u t chng khon chu thit
hi nghim trng v s cn nhiu na. Nga chc s v n v
cc ngha v dollar ca n. Thit hi Indonesia s cng
phi c nhn ra. Cc ngn hng b cc c ng ca h
trng pht do cc ri ro ca h ngoi vi: Chng s khng
mun tng cam kt ca mnh. Ch c hnh ng quc t ca
cc chnh ph c th bm tin ra ngoi vi, nhng khng c
du hiu no cho hp tc.
Khng hong ti chnh 1997-1999
__________________________________________________



231


Nhn li, tin on ca ti r rng sai. N minh ho vic
a ra cc tin on khng mp m l nguy him th no, c
bit khi khung kh l thuyt ca ti v phn thn coi tng lai
l c b ng. Tt nhin, ta khng th tham gia vo cc th
trng ti chnh m khng chp nhn gi thuyt no v
tng lai. y, ti nh cuc v thua. l mt kinh
nghim au n phi chu ng c v mt c nhn ln chuyn
mn.
Mc d b trng pht, ti c thy gi tr no trong kinh
nghim v n phi by s yu im no trong phn tch
u tin ca ti. Ti trch nguyn vn d on sai lm ca
mnh v quan trng hiu n sai u. Sai lm c th ca
ti l ti ngh rng Cc D tr Lin bang khng can thip
cu LTCM. Rt cuc, cng vic ca n l bo v h thng
ti chnh Hoa K, v s ph sn ca LTCM c th gy nguy
him cho nhim v . Ti l l rng sn chi ca ch
ngha t bn ton cu nghing v ng h trung tm. Ti c th
i chng minh no tt hn l s khc bit gia kh nng ca
cc nh chc trch ti chnh Hoa K bo v nn kinh t M
v s bt lc ca cc nh chc trch tin t quc t bo v
nn kinh t ton cu?
Tuy vy, sai lm ca ti su hn th. Bn tm vi cc sai
st trong cc dn xp ti chnh quc t, ti khng cho trng
lng tho ng cho nhng ci thin to ln v nng sut do
i mi cng ngh, c bit v truyn thng v x l thng tin,
mang li. Nhng ci ny t khi lng ti hn v bt u
c nh hng mnh m ln nn kinh t cng nh ln th
trng c phiu. Internet to ra bong bng ring ca mnh,
bong bng ging nh cc bong bng trc nhng vt chng
v qui m. c bong bng gip , Internet v nhng i
mi khc mang li nhng thay i cn bn i vi cch
kinh doanh c tin hnh. Nhng iu ny s c nhng nh
hng su rng ln vn may ca tng cng ti ring bit v
tng nghnh. Chng cng nng cao li th cnh tranh ca Hoa
GEORGE SOROS
___________________________________________________

232
K v lm thay i quan h gia trung tm v ngoi vi. iu
ny lm cho vic rt khi h thng cung cp khng ch vn
m c ci thin cng ngh, l kh hn nhiu. Quc hu ho
cc ti sn c th ch t c li ban u khi cng ngh s
dng cc ti sn t nhiu n nh v c bit; l
trng hp vi cc cng ti du. Nhng khi ti kinh doanh hn
l vn l ci quyt nh, khng c la chn kh d no khc l
khuyn khch ti kinh doanh.
Nhn li, hin nhin l phn tch ca ti thm m mt
thin kin gi xung. Ti hnh dung s suy gim vi hnh
dng v qui m khc nhau, nhng tng rng th trng c
phiu c th i n nh cao mi khng ln vo tm nhn
ca ti. Tht kh o ngc thin kin gi xung khi nhiu l
do c s vn cn c hiu lc. trnh c s thu hp tn
dng ton cu, v p lc ri b h thng khng tr
thnh hin thc. Th nhng, s cch bit gia trung tm v
ngoi vi tr nn r rt hn, v nng lc ca cc nh ch ti
chnh quc t kim sot hay nh hng n cc th trng
ti chnh yu i. Tnh bt n nh ca h thng ln hn bao
gi ht; ti s cp vn Chng 10.
Soros Fund Management rt kh khn trong tng kh
thin kin gi xung ca n. M hnh boom-bust ca ti cho
l c mt giai on tng tc sau mt th thch thnh cng, v
chng ti tm cch tham gia trong nhng khng ton
tm. Ti th chi c phiu Internet bn non qu sm, v
chng ti ri tr: Vo thng Nm 1999, Quantum Fund
rt 20 phn trm t u nm. Mt ln na chng ti li tm
c cch sa tnh hnh bng nhn din ng nhm tip theo
ca cc cng ti hng u gia cc cng ti cng ngh, v chng
ti kt thc nm vi khon li 35 phn trm. iu c ngha
l s nhy vt gn 70 phn trm t im thp ca 1999. Lc
ny chng ti qu lu v b dnh vo hi phiu tr ngay
bt u vo thng Ba 2000. Ci xe lc o in l qu
nhiu cho ngi ch huy: Stan Druckenmiller, tng qun l
u t ca qu, quyt nh ra i. Ti, v phn mnh, cm thy
bt buc phi dng v bin i Quantum Fund thnh mt
Khng hong ti chnh 1997-1999
__________________________________________________



233

phng tin u t bo th hn vi s a dng ho ri ro
rng.
Rt cm d li v chi th trng bn non by gi
khi n g cui cng v chung ng, nhng s l mt
cng thc cho thm ho. Ti khng cn t cch c vai
tr tch cc trong qun l mt qu t bo him. Cng vic i
hi s chuyn tm cho nhim v, v ti c qu nhiu li ch
v cam kt khc.
56
Ti chng cn tnh nhn ni hp thu s
cng thng v au n m cng vic gy ra. Ti s c th c
rt nhiu mt hn l c bng cch quay li u
trng. Chng c g tht thm bi hn l mt nh v ch
trung bnh c chin u ti cng. Cho d l ti c tm cch
kim chc mt bust sp xy ra, n s khng gii quyt vn
thc ca ti: dn xp vic qun l thch hp ti sn ca ti
th no. Ti c c n him c l c kh nng hnh ng
nh ngi thi hnh ti sn ring ca mnh; gii thot trch
nhim ca mnh mt cch thch hp bn thn ti khng c
qun l ti sn ca mnh.
Xem xt li cc s kin ca vi nm qua, ti phi nghi ng
tnh hu ch ca m hnh boom-bust. N chng bao gi c
ngha nhiu hn mt minh ho v tnh hnh gn cn bng c
th chuyn thnh xa cn bng ra sao, nhng ti mang mt
th d hot ng tt cho conglomerate boom i qu xa.
Ngay c php tng t gia h thng Soviet v h thng ngn
hng Hoa K l mt s chiu c, v cui cng n lc ca
ti khp hnh mu ny cho din tin cc s kin trong
khng hong 1997-1999 tr thnh phn tc dng. Ti ci
ci l mt lm lc (o tng) mu m (fertile fallacy) n
kit sc.



56
Tht l th phng on rng vic vit The Crisis of Global Capitalism ti vi mt
thin kin gi xung ci cn tr chng ti trong boom tip theo. Mi lin h tng t xy
ra nm 1987 khi ti qu bn rn tho lun cun The Alchemy of Finance vi cc kinh t
gia Boston c hnh ng lng trnh ng trc sp . Trong thi cc thnh ca mnh
ti thng c mt qui tc chng li nhng cng b cng khai.
GEORGE SOROS
___________________________________________________

234
Ti khng ngh bi tp ny v t trng pht lm mt hiu
lc cch tip cn ca ti. Ngc li, n ti cng c tm quan
trng ca s nhn ra tnh c th sai ca chng ta. Ti lm
dng mt m hnh boom-bust c th, nhng tng c bn
vn ng n: Mt thin kin thnh hnh v mt xu hng
thnh hnh c th tng tc theo cch ban u t tng cng
nhng cui cng t th tiu. Cng ng l mt th thch
thnh cng c xu hng tng cng mt thin kin thnh
hnh, trong khi th thch khng thnh cng c xu hng o
ngc n. Gi pht quyt nh v giai on chng vng l cc
khi nim ng nghi hn: Chng c th c nhn ra ch
mun mng, nu c th nhn ra.
Phi th nhn khng ng v phng php lun i a
ra mt tin on v iu kin nh vy, v l thuyt phn thn
ch cho php lp ra cc kch bn kh d. Nhng nhng ngi
tham gia khng c s xa x tun theo phng php khoa hc;
h phi hnh ng trn c s cc gi thuyt sai. Sau khi a
ra mt tin on sai, ch t ti chng minh rng cc gi
thuyt, m ti hot ng vi, l c th c chng minh l
sai. Mt cch k l phn tch sai lm ca ti phc v cho vic
bin minh mt cch tip cn da vo s tha nhn tnh c th
sai v sa cha sai lm - nh Soros Fund Management c
kh nng lm sut ba mi nm.


CHNG 9

Ai Mt nc Nga?













sp ca ch Soviet nm 1989 v sau Lin X
nm 1991 cho mt c hi lch s bin i khu vc
thnh cc x hi m. Nhng cc nn dn ch phng
Ty tht bi nm ly c hi; c th gii chu cc hu
qu. Lin X v sau nc Nga cn s gip t bn
ngoi v x hi m l mt hnh thc t chc x hi tinh t hn
x hi khp kn. Trong mt x hi ng, ch c mt khi nim
x hi phi c t chc ra sao: l phin bn c cho
php, c p t bng v lc. Trong khun kh x hi m,
cc cng dn khng ch c php m c i hi phi ngh
cho chnh mnh, v c nhng dn xp nh ch cho php
ngi dn vi cc li ch, xut thn, v kin khc nhau cng
tn ti trong ho bnh.
S
H thng Soviet c l l mt dng ton din nht ca x hi
khp kn trong lch s loi ngi. N thm nhp vo hu nh
tt c mi kha cnh ca s tn ti: chnh tr v qun s cng
nh kinh t v tr tu. lc hung hng nht n thm ch
th xm ln khoa hc t nhin nh trng hp ca Trofim
GEORGE SOROS
___________________________________________________

236

Lysenko chng t.
57
tin hnh qu sang x hi m
cn s thay i cch mng v ch vic khng th c
hon thnh m khng c gip bn ngoi. S thu hiu ny
thc gic ti lao vo v thit lp Qu Ti tr X hi M t
nc ny n nc khc khp ch Soviet trc y.
Nhng cc x hi m ca Phng Ty thiu s thu hiu
ny. Nm 1947, tip theo s tn ph ca Th Chin II, Hoa K
a ra K hoch Marshall lch s ti thit chu u; sau
s sp ca h thng Soviet, mt sng kin nh vy l
khng th hnh dung ni. Ti kin ngh ci g ging vy
mt hi ngh vo ma xun 1989 ti Potsdam, thnh ph
vn l mt phn ca ng c, v ng theo ngha en l ti
b ci nho. William Waldegrave, mt b trng trong b
ngoi giao ca Margaret Thatcher, dn u cc li ch
nho. Thatcher l mt ngi bo v trung thnh ca t do -
bt k khi no b n thm cc nc cng sn b khng khng
i gp nhng ngi bt ng chng kin nhng tng
rng x hi m cn phi c xy dng v vic xy dng
c th cn n v xng ng - s gip bn ngoi hin
nhin vt qu s hiu bit ca b. Nh mt ngi theo
thuyt th trng chnh thng, b khng tin vo can thip
chnh ph. Thc ra, cc nc cng sn b t phi lo liu
ly; mt s thnh cng, nhng cc nc khc th khng.
C nhiu t vn lng tm v t co ang din ra lin quan
n Nga. Cc bi bo c vit t cu hi Ai mt nc
Nga? Ti c thuyt phc l chng ta cc nn dn ch
phng Ty - chu trch nhim chnh v ti li b qun l do
chnh quyn Bush v Thatcher phm phi. Thnh tch ca Th
tng c Helmut Kohl hp hn. C m rng tn dng ln
cho tr cp, c l ngi ng gp ti chnh ln nht cho
Lin X v, mun hn, cho Nga, nhng ng c thc y
Kohl l mong mun mua s ng thun v thng nht nc
c hn l gip ci bin nc Nga.

57
Trofim Lysenko mt nh nng hc c chng minh, ng h ch ngha Marx, rng cc
c im kim c c th c k tha.
Ai mt nc Nga
__________________________________________________



237

Ti dm chc rng nu cc nn dn ch Ty phng gi
nh thc s cam kt, nc Nga c th c xc lp chc
chn trn con ng ti mt nn kinh t th trng v mt x
hi m. Ti nhn ra rng mt lun im nh vy i ngc vi
quan im thnh hnh. N phn s thc v, thc ra, cc n lc
ci cch kinh t tht bi bun thm. Ta c th phi tin vo
tnh hiu qu ca vin tr nc ngoi l l rng kt qu c
th khc i. Nhng vin tr nc ngoi c thnh tch xu, v
tng rng can thip chnh ph c th thc s gip mt nn
kinh t l i ngc thin kin thnh hnh theo thuyt th
trng chnh thng. Cho nn s ch tp trung vo ai lm
g sai. Nhng chnh thin kin theo thuyt th trng chnh
thng l ci phi chu trch nhim v kt qu. N chin u
chng s cam kt tht s gip Lin X v Nga mun hn.
Ngi ta cm thy ng cm, nhng l loi mi phi thai.
Cc x hi m Phng Ty khng tin vo x hi m nh
mt tng ph qut, m vic thc hin n bin minh cho n
lc ng k. y l s tht vng v nh gi sai ln nht ca
ti. Ti b li ni hoa m ca Chin tranh lnh la di.
Phng Ty sn lng ng h chuyn i bng li nhng
khng bng tin, v bt k vin tr hay li khuyn no
c a ra u b thin kin th trng chnh thng lm lc
li. Nhng ngi Soviet v ngi Nga d nhn, thm ch
ho hc, cc li khuyn bn ngoi. H nhn ra h thng
ca h thi nt v c xu hng thn tng ho phng
Ty. Thng thay, h phm cng sai lm nh ti: H
cho rng phng Ty thnh tht quan tm.
Ti lp mt qu ti tr Lin X t 1987. Khi Mikhail
Gorbachev in thoi cho Andrei Sakharov b qun thc
Gorki v yu cu ng tip tc cc hot ng yu nc ca
mnh Moscow, ti nhn ra rng mt s thay i cch
mng ang hnh thnh. Ti m t kinh nghim ca mnh
ni khc.
58
Ci lin quan y l nm 1988 ti kin ngh
lp mt nhm cng tc quc t nghin cu vic to ra mt

58
George Soros, Underwritting Democracy (New York: Free Press, Macmillan, 1991).
GEORGE SOROS
___________________________________________________

238
khu vc m trong nn kinh t Lin X, v ti hi ngc
nhin - khi ti l mt nh qun l qu v danh - kin ngh
ca ti c cc quan chc Lin X chp nhn.
tng l to ra mt khu vc th trng trong ni b nn
kinh t ch huy, chn mt ngnh nh ch bin thc phm,
ngnh c th bn sn phm ca n cho khch hng vi gi th
trng hn l gi ch huy (vi mt h thng thch hp
chuyn t gi ch huy sang gi th trng). Khu vc m ny
sau c th c m rng dn dn. Mau chng tr nn hin
nhin rng tng l phi thc tin v nn kinh t ch huy
qu bnh hon nui dng phi thai ca mt nn kinh t
th trng. Tc l, vn chuyn nh gi khng th gii
quyt c. Nhng ngay c mt tng nng ni nh vy t
mt ngun tm thng cng c ng h mc cao nht.
Th tng Nikolai Ryzhkov ra lnh cho lnh o ca cc
c quan Soviet ch cht - U Ban K hoch, U ban Vt t, v.
v. tham gia. ng l ti c th thu ht cc nh kinh t
phng Ty nh Wassily Leontief v Romano Prodi tham gia
t pha phng Ty.
Mun hn ti a mt nhm chuyn gia phng Ty li
vi nhau, nhng ngi t vn cho cc nhm kinh t gia
Nga khc nhau chun b cc chng trnh ci cch kinh t
cnh tranh nhau. Sau ti dn xp cho cc tc gi ca
kin ngh chnh ca Nga cho ci cch kinh t - ci gi l K
hoch Shatalin do Grigory Yavlinsky lnh o, c mi
n cuc hp nm 1990 ca IMF/Ngn hng Th gii
Washington. Gorbachev lng l v k hoch v cui cng
quyt nh chng li n. ng ln trnh hai vn : t nhn ho
t ai, v ng thi gii tn Lin X cng vi vic lp mt
lin minh kinh t. Ti vn ngh K hoch Shatalin c th
mang li mt s chuyn i c trt t hn so vi din tin tht
s ca cc s kin.
Ngay sau Gorbachev mt quyn lc, Lin X tan r, v
Boris Yeltsin tr thnh tng thng Nga. ng u thc nn kinh
t cho Yegor Gaidar, ng u mt vin nghin cu kinh t,
ngi hc l thuyt kinh t v m t sch gio khoa chun
Ai mt nc Nga
__________________________________________________



239
ca Rudi Dornbusch v Stan Fischer. Gaidar th p dng
chnh sch tin t vo mt nn kinh t khng tun theo cc tn
hiu tin t. Cc doanh nghip quc doanh tip tc sn xut
theo k hoch, cho d chng khng c tr tin v vic .
Ti nh cuc gi in cho Gaidar thng T 1992 ch ra l
n gia cc cng ti tng n mc bng mt phn ba GNP;
ng tha nhn vn nhng tip tc khng m xa n.
Khi Gaidar tht bi tip theo l mt hnh ng cn i kh
chu, v cui cng Anatoly Chubais, t mt vin nghin cu
khc, ni ln nh ph th tng ph trch kinh t. ng t u
tin cho chuyn ti sn t nh nc sang tay t nhn. ng tin
rng mt khi ti sn nh nc c t hu ho, cc ch s
hu s bt u bo v ti sn ca mnh v qu trnh tan r s
c th dng.
khng phi l cch n c tin hnh. Mt s phn
pht voucher (phiu), m ngi dn sau c th dng
mua cc cng ti quc doanh, tr thnh mt cuc chim
ot ti sn nh nc mnh ai ny lm. Cc ban qun l chim
quyn kim sot cc cng ti bng cch la cng nhn ly
voucher hay gom mua c phn vi gi r. H tip tc ht thu
nhp v, thng xuyn, ti sn vo cc cng ti m t
Cyprus, mt phn trnh thu, mt phn tr tin cho c
phn m h mua, mt phn tch t ti sn nc ngoi do
thiu lng tin vo nhng g din ra trong nc. Nhng s
tin kch x c kim trong chc lt ngay c trong khi cc
k thiu thn v tin v tn dng, c rp v la.


T cc iu kin hn lon ny nguyn l ca mt trt t
kinh t mi bt u ni ln. N l mt dng ca ch ngha
t bn nhng l dng rt l k v n sinh ra theo mt trnh t
khc vi trnh t c th k vng di cc iu kin bnh
thng. T nhn ho u tin l t nhn ho an ninh cng
cng, v theo cch no n thnh cng nht. Cc qun
i t nhn tp nham v cc bng nhm mafia c dng ln,
v chng cai qun ni chng c th. Cc ban qun l ca cc
GEORGE SOROS
___________________________________________________

240
doanh nghip quc doanh lp cc cng ti t nhn, ch yu
Cyprus, cc cng ti ny k kt hp ng vi cc doanh nghip
quc doanh. Cc nh my thua l, khng ng thu, v kht
n lng v n nn vi cc cng ti khc. Dng tin mt b ht
sang Cyprus. Cc ngn hng mi c thnh lp, mt phn
bi cc doanh nghip nh nc v ngn hng quc doanh, mt
phn bi cc nhm thng mi mi ni. Mt vi ngn hng
kim s tin kch x bng cch cai qun ti khon ca cc c
quan nh nc khc nhau, k c Kho bc Nga.
Sau , lin quan n s t nhn ho cc doanh nghip
nh nc bng phn pht voucher, mt th trng c phiu
c sinh ra, trc khi cc c ch ng k c phiu v
thanh ton hu hiu cc giao dch c thit lp mt cch ph
hp - v trc xa vic cc doanh nghip, m c phiu ca
chng c bun bn, bt u ng x ging cc cng ti. Mt
vn ho phm php tr nn thm m trc xa cc lut v qui
ch thch hp c th c ban hnh. Tin bn t s
voucher khng dn li cho nh nc hay bn thn cc cng
ti. u tin cc nh qun l phi cng c kim sot v trang
tri cc khon n h mc trong qu trnh chim quyn
kim sot; ch sau h mi c th bt u to ra thu nhp
trong ni b cng ti. Ngay c khi , c li cho h che giu
hn l bo co thu nhp tr phi h c th hi vng tng vn
bng bn c phn. Song ch c t cng ti n giai on .
Nhng s sp xp ny c th c m t mt cch chnh
ng l ch ngha t bn k cp, v cch hu hiu nht
tch t t bn t nhn l chim ot ti sn nh nc nu
hu nh khng c g khi ng. Tt nhin, c mt s
ngoi l. Trong mt nn kinh t thm kht cc dch v, c
th kim tin t nhiu hp php bng cung cp cc dch v y,
th d, thng qua cng vic sa cha hay vn hnh cc khch
sn v nh hng n.
Vin tr nc ngoi ch yu cho hai nh ch ti
chnh quc t - IMF v Ngn hng Th gii - v cc nc
phng Ty khng sn lng gp tin t ngn sch ring
ca h. Ti phn i cch dn xp ny vi l do rng IMF
Ai mt nc Nga
__________________________________________________



241
v mt t chc khng ph hp vi cng vic. N hot ng
bng i cc chnh ph k mt th ng tn trng cc iu
kin nh hng n tnh n nh ca ng tin v ngn sch
trung ng, gia cc i hi khc, v n ngng cp tin nu
chnh ph khng tho mn cc iu kin. Khi mt nc khng
c mt chnh ph hu hiu, phng php ny m bo rng
chng trnh s tht bi. l ci xy ra Nga. Chnh ph
trung ng khng c kh nng thu thu, v cch duy nht
n c th tho mn cc mc tiu cung tin l t chi tho
mn cc ngha v ngn sch. Kht tin lng v n gia cc
cng ti tch t ln mc khng th qun l ni. Ti l l rng
cn n mt cch tip cn xm nhp ba, trc tip hn, v n
c th c chp nhn mt cch hm h khi y. Nhng c
ngha l phi a tin tht ra, v cc nn dn ch phng Ty
chn bc trc trin vng.
Khi IMF gia hn khon vay 15 t $ cho Nga, ti l l
trong mt bi bo ng trn Wall Street Journal ngy 11
thng 11, 1992, rng tin phi c nh du chi tr cc
khon an sinh x hi v rng vic chi tiu cc khon tin ny
phi c gim st cht ch. V ng rp mt gi, tin hu ch
cn 8 $ mt thng, cho nn tin phi cho chi tr ton b
lng hu. Kin ngh ca ti khng c xem xt nghim
tc v n khng hp vi phng thc hot ng ca IMF.
Cho nn ti quyt tm chng t rng vin tr nc ngoi c
th c kt qu.
Ti lp ra Qu ti tr Khoa hc Quc t vi 100 triu $ (chi
cui cng l 140 triu $). Hnh ng u tin ca chng ti l
phn chia 500 $ cho mi ngi trong s 40.000 nh khoa hc
gii nht ca Nga vi hi vng rng iu ny s khuyn khch
h li Nga v tip tc cng vic khoa hc ca h. Vic ny
tn 20 triu $, v n cho php cc nh khoa hc ny tn ti
mt nm. Cc tiu chun la chn ngi c nhn l cng
khai, minh bch, v khch quan: Cc nh khoa hc phi c
ba bi bo ng trong cc xut bn phm khoa hc hng u.
Vic phn pht c hon tt trong vi thng, vi t l chi ph
t hn 10 phn trm, v s m bo chi tr bng la
GEORGE SOROS
___________________________________________________

242
cho mi ngi nhn khp Lin X trc y. iu ny
chng t kin ngh ca ti v kim sot gii ngn l c tnh
thc tin.
Phn tin cn li c dng h tr nghin cu trn c s
mt qu trnh duyt ng ng c t chc tm quc t
trong cc nh khoa hc ni ting nht trn th gii tham
gia. (Boris Berezovsky, ngi mun hn tr thnh mt k u
s tai ting, ng gp 1,5 triu $ cho tr cp i li v cc l
do ring ca ng ta. y l khon ng gp duy nht t Nga).
Tt c tin c cam kt cho thi hn t hn hai nm.
Cc l do m ti ng h cc nh khoa hc l phc tp. Ti
mun chng minh rng vin tr nc ngoi c th thnh cng,
v ti chn khoa hc nh lnh vc chng minh v ti c th
tnh n s ng h ca cc thnh vin ca cng ng khoa
hc quc t, nhng ngi sn lng hin thi gian v nng lc
ca h cho nh gi cc d n nghin cu. Nhng phng
thc phn chia vin tr khn cp c th c kt qu cho nhng
ngi v hu cng nh cc nh khoa hc.
C cc l l khc ng h vic gip cc nh khoa hc. Trong
thi gian ch Soviet nhiu b c tuyt nht gia nhp cc
vin nghin cu ni t duy c lp c khoan dung hn so
vi phn cn li ca x hi Soviet, v h lm ra loi khoa hc
ng u cc thnh tu ca nhn loi. N l mt xu hng
khc mt cht so vi khoa hc phng Ty - mang tnh suy
on hn v t tin tin hn v mt k thut tr vi lnh vc u
tin. Cc nh khoa hc cng i u trong ci cch chnh tr.
Andrei Sakharov c bit c nhiu ngi bit n v c
ngng m, nhng cn nhiu ngi khc na. Ngoi ra, c
mi nguy him l cc nh khoa hc ht nhn c th b cc
nc x l cm d.
Ton b cng vic l mt thnh cng vang di v cho
qu ti tr ca ti danh ting khng th b cng kch. c
nhiu cuc tn cng chng chng ti v chng ti tham gia
vo cc chng trnh c th gy tranh ci. Th d, chng ti t
chc mt cuc thi cc sch gio khoa mi khng c thc h
Marxist-Leninist v b ln n u c u c sinh vin. Mt
Ai mt nc Nga
__________________________________________________



243

ln Duma tin hnh nghe iu trn v co buc chng ti
kim b mt khoa hc mt cch r tin, mc d mi nghin
cu do qu ti tr u phi c cng b v thuc v ti sn
cng cng. Ton b cng ng khoa hc ng ln ng h
chng ti, v v th Duma kt thc thng qua biu quyt
cm n. Khi ti ni l lch s c th c din tin khc i nu
cc nn dn ch phng Ty n gip nc Nga sau sp
ca h thng Soviet, ti v th c th da vo th nghim
ring ca ti.
*
Hy tng tng nhng ngi Nga c th ngh
v Phng Ty ngy nay khc th no nu gi nh IMF tr
tin lng hu cho h khi h bn l ca s cht i.


Ti king u t c nhn vo Nga, mt phn trnh bt
k xung t li ch no nhng ch yu v ti khng thch ci
ti thy. Ti khng can thip, tuy vy, cc nh qun l qu
ca ti ngi mun u t, v ti cng chp thun s tham
gia ca h trong mt qu u t do Nga iu hnh vi cc iu
kin ngang nhau vi cc nh u t phng Ty khc.
Ti d Din n Kinh t Th gii Davos thng Ging
1996 ni ng vin tng thng cng sn, Gennadi Zyuganov,
c cng ng kinh doanh tip n nng nhit. Ti gp
Boris Berezovsky v ni rng nu Zyuganov c bu th ng
ta, Berezovsky, s b treo trn ct n. Ti mun ng ng h
Grigory Yavlinsky, ngi ti coi l nh ci cch chn tht duy
nht gia cc ng vin, nhng ti u tr. Ti khng nhn ra
mc m Berezovsky dnh lu vo cc thng v bn
thu vi gia nh Yeltsin. Theo tuyn b cng khai ca ng ta,
cnh bo ca ti v s an ton ca ng ta tp trung s ch
ca ng ta. Cng vi cc nh doanh nghip Nga hng u
tham d hi ngh Davos, h nhm hp v lp mt nhm
hot ng cho s ti c ca Eltsin.
l cch h tr thnh u s. Mt th thut chnh tr xut
sc: Yeltsin bt u vi mt c lng chp thun thp hn

*
Ring cho nn khoa hc Lin x v Nga, n nay Soros biu tng cng hn 700 triu USD.
GEORGE SOROS
___________________________________________________

244
n.

10 phn trm, v h thnh cng ng ta c ti c.
Cuc vn ng do Anatoly Chubais qun l. Ti khng bit
chi tit, nhng ti c th dng tr tng tng ca mnh. Khi
mt trong nhng tr l ca Chubais b bt khi ri Nh Trng
Nga - tng hnh dinh ca th tng v chnh ph - cng vi
khong 200.000 $ trong mt chic cp ti chc khng phi
tin chi. Nhng k u s tng mt gi nng cho s ng
h Yeltsin ca h. H nhn c phn ca cc cng ti nh
nc gi tr nht nh ti sn m bo cho cc khon vay m
h cho ngn sch nh nc vay trong s tai ting cho vay
i ly c phn. Sau khi Yeltsin thng c, cc cng ti ny
c a ra u gi v bn u s chia chc chng vi nhau.
Ti bit k Chubais. Theo ti, ng l mt nh ci cch tht
s ngi bn linh hn mnh cho qu d chin u chng
li ci ng gi l mi e do -nu - s kt hp ca ch
ngha x hi v ch ngha dn tc - ci ng tin s ch ng
nc Nga tr phi ng lm ci g ngn chn n. Sau ti
c ca Yeltsin, ng li ph trch kinh t, nhng ng gp
kh khn kim sot nhng k u s du kh. Ti c ng
vin nhiu khi Yeltsin a Boris Nemtsov, thng c ci cch
ca Nizhny Novgorod, vo chnh ph v coi ng nh con
nui. Chubais b cuc bu c lm i bi, cn Nemtsov th
trong sch: ng c th gi vng ni Chubais khng th. Ti
coi y l mt tn hiu rng ch Yeltsin, di s lnh o
ca Chubais, tht s mun ri xa ch ngha t bn n cp
sang ch ngha t bn hp php. Ngn sch nh nc v cung
tin c gi trong gii hn, v thu qu hn bt u c
thu. Lm pht v li sut gim. Quyn ca c ng c tn
trng hn, v th trng c phiu hng pht. Tin nc ngoi
vo c phiu v cc cng c n. Nhng ngi Nga i vay
c th nhn c khon vay nm nm ch vi 250 im c
s
*
cao hn li sut lin ngn hng Londo


*
basis point = im c s = 0,01% (tc l c th vay vi li sut LIBOR + 2,5%).
Ai mt nc Nga
__________________________________________________



245
Chnh da vo c s ny m nm 1997 ti quyt nh
tham gia vo u gi Svyazinvest, cng ti m, quc doanh v
in thoi. Ti au kh v quyt nh, do qu bit v tham
nhng trn lan Nga. d hn gi cho bn tay ti sch
bng cch bm cht vo vic t thin. Nu nc Nga khng
th chuyn i t ch ngha t bn n cp sang ch ngha t
bn hp php, th mi vic t thin ca ti l v ch. Cho nn
ti quyt nh tham gia u thu cnh tranh mua Svyazinvest,
vic u thu ho ra thng. y l cuc u gi tht s
trong nh nc khng b la. Mc d chng ti tr mt gi
hp l - di 2 t $ mt cht, gn mt na do cc qu ca ti
a ra - ti tnh rng n s l mt khon u t rt ng nu
qu sang ch ngha t bn hp php sun s.
ng tic khng phi l ci xy ra. Cuc u gi b
x y thnh mt cuc u , u l th ga nhng k u
s, mt cuc ci v gia bn n cp. Mt s k u s hm
h cho qu sang hp php trong khi nhng k khc khng
c v h khng c kh nng hot ng mt cch hp php. K
phn i ch yu cuc u gi v kt qu ca n l Boris
Berezovsky. Sau khi lin minh ca ng ta thua u gi, ng ta
th tiu dit Chubais. Ti c mt s cuc ni chuyn thnh
tht vi ng ta, nhng ti khng tm c cch can ngn
ng ta. Ti ni rng ng ta l mt ngi giu, c gi tr
hng t trn giy. Ti sn chnh ca ng ta l Sibneft, mt
trong nhng cng ti du ln nht th gii. Tt c ci ng ta
cn lm l cng c v th ca mnh. Nu ng ta khng t mnh
lm c, ng ta c th thu mt nh ngn hng u t. ng
ta bo l ti khng hiu: Vn khng phi l ng ta giu c
n u m l ng ta so ra sao vi Chubais v vi nhng
k u s khc. H c mt s dn xp, v h phi bm vo
n. ng ta phi tiu dit hoc b tiu dit.
Ti chng kin rt gn mt cnh tng lch s kinh d
trong nhng k u s hng mnh c th o ngc kt
qu khng ch ca cuc u gi m ca ton b n lc ca
chnh ph kim sot nhng k u s. C nh ti ang
xem nhng ngi nh ln nhau trn mt chic thuyn khi n
GEORGE SOROS
___________________________________________________

246
b cun n mt thc nc. Nh mt phn ca chin dch
buc ti v buc ti chng tr, Berezovsky tit l rng
Chubais nhn 90.000 $ t mt hp ng sch gi, thc ra
l s tr cng ca cc u s khc cho s phc v ca ng vi
t cch nh qun l cuc vn ng ca Yeltsin. Chubais yu i
v b ri bi do lin tc phi t bo v. Vic thu thu cn s
can thip c nhn ca ng nu vic phi tin trin, v tin
thu thu st gim. C mt s tri dt xung nguy him
trong nn kinh t nm 1998 ng lc khng hong chu bt
u lm cho tc ng ca n cm nhn c. N ln nh
im v n ni a Nga vo thng Tm 1998, lm rung
chuyn cc th trng ti chnh quc t.
Cc ngn hng Hn Quc v Brazil u t nhiu vo th
trng Nga phi thanh l cc v th ca h. Mt s ngn
hng Moscow cho vay cng b ri ro v chng c cc v th
u c tri phiu ln v cng c cc hp ng k hn bng rp
khng c m bo. c nhng gi pht gieo neo vo
thng Mi Hai 1997, nhng chng tri qua. Li sut tng
t ngt v chi tiu chnh ph gim st, nhng Duma do d
thng qua cc lut cn thit cho ci cch c cu. Ngy 24
thng Ba 1998, Yeltsin sa thi Viktor Chernomyrdin khi
chc th tng v ngy 24 thng T buc Duma chp nhn
Sergei Kiriyenko, mt nh k tr tr do Gaidar v Chubais kin
ngh, thay th. Mt thong, nc Nga c mt chnh ph ci
cch, chnh ph tt nht t khi Lin X tan r, v thng By
1998 IMF thng qua mt khon vay gi tr 8,5 t SDR
(khong 11,2 t $ US), trong 3,6 t SDR (khong 4,8 t $
US) c gii ngn. Nhng khng .
Ti im ny, ti s quay sang ci ti gi l th nghim thi
gian thc. Ti bt u n ngay trc sp cui cng. Ti
sao li mt cch trung thc nhng ghi chp m ti vit
trong hai tun trong khi khng hong lan ra.
Ai mt nc Nga
__________________________________________________



247

Mt Th nghim Thi gian thc

Ch nht, 9-8-1998

Rp (giao ngay) = 6,29
Rp K hn
59
= 45%
GKO
60
= 94,52%
Prins
61
= 21,79%
S&P = 1.089,45
Tri phiu kho bc M 30 nm = 5,63%

Ti khng theo di cht din bin Nga cho n hai hay
ba ngy va qua - ti qu bn vit cun sch ny. Ti
bit rng tnh hnh vn tuyt vng ngay c sau khi IMF
ng mt gi cu tr 18 t $. Li sut ca n chnh ph vn
mc v cng ln - gia 70 phn trm v 90 phn trm cho
tn phiu kho bc mt nm c mnh gi bng rp (GKO).
Nhm mua 25,1 phn trm ca Svyazinvest cng ti m
v in thoi ca Nga - v trong chng ti l ngi
tham gia nc ngoi ln nht, c chnh ph Nga tip cn
cung cp mt khon vay bc cu tm thi cho t bn 24,9
phn trm tip theo ca Svyazinvest. Li ch ca chng ti l
vic bn thnh cng nhng ti khng thch tng qung tin
ti sau ci xu - l l do v sao ti tp trung vo tnh hnh.
Mau chng tr nn r rng l ti ti tr n chnh ph l mt
vn dng nh khng th vt qua ni. Chng trnh IMF
gi thit rng nhng ngi nm gi n ni a s gia hn
n (ti u t) cc khon n ca h khi o hn; vn ch l
vi gi no. Nu chnh ph thnh cng trong thu thu, li sut
cui cng s xung mc c th chu c, th d 25 phn
trm, v khng hong s qua i. Ci m dng lp lun ny
khng tnh n l phn nhiu ca n l do nhng ngi trong

59
Li sut ngm nh v cc hp ng k hn mt thng khng c giao cho ng rp bun
bn bng la.
60
Sut thu nhp ca tn phiu kho bc Nga c mnh gi bng rp.
61
Sut thu nhp ca tn phiu kho bc Nga c mnh gi bng la.
GEORGE SOROS
___________________________________________________

248
nc nm gi nhng ngi khng v th c th gia hn
GKO ca h khi o hn vi bt k gi no. Cc cng ti b
buc phi np thu, v ci h tr thu khng th c ti u
t vo GKO. Quan trng hn, khu vc ngn hng mua
GKO bng tin i vay, tr Sberbank mt ngn hng tit kim
quc doanh. Do suy gim ca th trng c phiu v tri phiu
Nga hu ht cc ngn hng ny khng c kh nng tr n
v ngay c cc ngn hng c kh nng tr n khng th gia
hn mc tn dng ca mnh. Kt qu l, khng ch chng
khng l ngi mua, m mt phn ca cc chng khon do h
nm gi phi c thanh l tho mn yu cu t thm tin
chnh lch. Phn nhiu tn dng l t cc ngn hng nc
ngoi, mt vi trong s h c thanh l cc v th ring ca
mnh na. Cc ln sng bn p n bng ng ola ca Nga
xung mc thp k lc. C mt khng hong ngn hng n r
ang trong qu trnh.
Mt khng hong ngn hng thng c km ch bi can
thip ca ngn hng trung ng v cung cp thanh khon, th
d bng cho vay i li th chp t sut nhng b; nhng
trong trng hp ny ngn hng trung ng b ngn cn lm
vy v cc iu khon ca tho thun IMF. l ci lm cho
tnh tnh dng nh khng th gii quyt c.
Vo th Su ngy 7 thng Tm, ti gi in cho Anatoly
Chubais, ng ang ngh h, v Yegor Gaidar, ngi chm lo
cng vic. Ti ni vi c hai ng rng theo ti tnh hnh kt
thc: chnh ph s khng th gia hn cc khon n ca mnh
sau thng Chn ngay c nu t gii nhn th hai ca khon
vay IMF c thc hin. Lm cho tnh hnh thm nghim
trng, chnh ph Ukraine ang trn b v n khon vay 459
triu $ do Nomura Securities dn xp o hn vo th Ba ti.
Trong hon cnh ny ti khng th bin minh cho vic tham
gia vo cho vay bc cu: ri ro v n qu ln. Ti thy mt
li ra duy nht: sp t mt s ng ti tr ln bo m
nhu cu ca chnh ph Nga cho n cui nm. N s phi l
mt s kt hp cng cng v t nhn. Nhm Svyazinvest c
th tham gia, th d, 500 triu $, nhng ring bn thn khu
Ai mt nc Nga
__________________________________________________



249
vc t nhn khng th c tin. Ti hi cn bao nhiu.
Gaidar bo ti, 7 t $. iu ny gi thit rng Sberbank, ngn
hng duy nht c s tin gi ln t cng chng, c th c kh
nng gia hn cc chng khon do mnh nm gi. Hin thi
cng chng khng rt tin gi khi cc ngn hng qui m
ng k. iu c ngha l ng ti tr phi c lp vi
10 t $, ti ni, ti thit lp lng tin ca cng chng.
Mt na c th l t ngun cc chnh ph nc ngoi, nh
Qu n nh T gi (Exchang Stabilization Fund) (nm di
s kim sot ca B Ti chnh Hoa K) v na khc t khu
vc t nhn. ng ti tr s hot ng khi t gii ngn th
hai ca IMF c thc hin vo thng Chn. N c th bao
tiu cc tn phiu GKO mt nm , th d, 35 phn trm mt
nm, dn dn gim xung th d 25 phn trm. (T sut hin
hnh l khong 90 phn trm). Chng trnh s c cng b
trc; iu s thu ht mt s cng chng mua: c ngha
u t mc 35 phn trm khi mt chng trnh ng tin
cy thc t s gim xung 25 phn trm vo cui nm. Nu
thnh cng, ch mt phn nh ca 10 t $ thc s c s
dng. C hai thnh phn cng cng v t nhn l kh sp xp
li vi nhau, nhng c s sn lng lm th. C th hiu
Gaidar nhit tnh.
Ti gi cho David Lipton, Th trng ph trch i Ngoi
ca B ti chnh Hoa K. ng hon ton thc c v vn
nhng h khng thm ch ngh n dng Qu n nh T
gi. Thi Quc hi l phn i mnh m bt k loi cu
tr no. Ti ni ti bit iu song ti khng thy la chn
kh d no khc. C s hong lon v l li ch quc gia ca
chng ta i ng h mt chnh ph ci cch Nga. Nu c s
tham gia t nhn th n phi lm cho s cu tr c th chp
nhn c v mt chnh tr. Tuy nhin, n i hi nhng
ngi Nga phi bin h mnh m i Capitol (Quc hi
M). Cng rt kh khn sp xp nhng ngi tham gia t
nhn v h l cc ngn hng u t v cc nh u c nh
chng ti v cc nh chc trch khng d huy ng h nh
cc ngn hng thng mi ln.
GEORGE SOROS
___________________________________________________

250
Chnh khai thc mi la chn kh d, ti gi li cho
Gaidar hi liu c th p mt khon ph ln nhng ngi
nm gi GKO ngi mun ly tin mt khi hon tr. ng ta
ni s phn tc dng v n s tiu hu mc tn nhim ca
GKO. Tt nhin ng ta ng.
Nh tnh hnh ny, ti tin rng [nu] khng c s ca ti
chnh ph s v n vi cc h qu tai bin; ngay c vi s
y, hu ht cc ngn hng Nga s b ph hu nhng s l sai
lm thm ch i cu vt chng.

Ti th Ba, 11 thng Tm

Rp (giao ngay) = 6,30
Rp K hn = 91%
GKO = 147%
Prins = 23,92%
S&P = 1.068,98
Tri phiu kho bc M 30 nm = 5,60%

Ti ni chuyn ngn vi Lipton ngy th Hai. Chnh quyn
Hoa K vn cha i n kt lun. ng ta ha s gi li. Ngy
th Ba c s sp trong th trng ti chnh Nga. Bun
bn trn th trng c phiu tm ngng. Tri phiu chnh ph
tht mc thp nht mi. Thm ch cc th trng quc t b
nh hng. S m ti kin ngh khng cn kh thi na. Ch
mt gi cu tr ln ti thiu 15 t $ mi c th n nh th
trng v khng th k vng nh u t t nhn no a tin
vo. Lipton bay i Moscow m khng gi li cho ti. Ti
nghe qua tin vt rng ng ta cu tit i m chng c g
ngh. Ti quyt nh vit bc th sau cho Financial Times:

Tha ngi, s sp cc th trng ti chnh Nga
n pha kt thc. Cc nh ngn hng v mi gii nhng
ngi vay i li cc chng khon khng th tho mn
gi vn bin v vic bn bt buc trn y c th trng c
phiu v tri phiu. Th trng c phiu tm thi b ng
Ai mt nc Nga
__________________________________________________



251

ca v khng th thanh ton vic bun bn; gi tri phiu
chnh ph v tn phiu kho bc lao xung vc thm. Mc
d vic bn tm thi c hp thu, c nguy c l dn c s
li bt u rt tin tit kim. Cn n hnh ng ngay lp
tc.
Phin l hnh ng cn thit ng u vi mt
khng hong ngn hng l ngc hon ton vi hnh ng
thng nht vi Qu Tin t Quc t ng u vi
khng hong ngn sch. Chng trnh IMF p t chnh
sch tin t v ti kho ngt ngho; khng hong ngn hng
i hi bm thanh khon. Hai i hi khng th ho thun
m khng c s gip quc t thm. Chng trnh ca
IMF gi nh rng s c ngi mua tri phiu chnh ph vi
mt ci gi: khi chnh ph tip tc thu thu v ct bt chi
tiu li sut s h xung v khng hong s du i. Gi thit
l sai v phn ln n tn ng c gi ti bin v mc tn
dng c th khng c gia hn. C mt k h ti tr cn
c lp. K h s tr nn ln hn nu cng chng bt u
rt tin gi.
Gii php tt nht l a ra mt hi ng tin t
*
sau
mt t ph gi va phi t 15 n 25 phn trm. Cn ph
gi hiu chnh st gi du v gim khon d phng
cn n cho hi ng tin t. N cng pht nhng ngi
nm gi n chnh ph c mnh gi bng rp, c tuyt chi
ph cu gip.
Cn n khong 50 t $ d tr: 23 t $ m bo M1
[lng cung tin ngn do cng chng nm gi] v 27 t $
m bo cho thm ht n ni a o n cho nm tip
theo. Nga c d tr 18 t $; IMF ha 17 t $. Nhm G7
cn phi a thm 15 t $ lm cho hi ng tin t kh
thi. S khng c cu gip h thng ngn hng. Tr mt vi
t chc gi tin gi ca cng chng, cc ngn hng phi t
lo ly. Gi tri phiu chnh ph c th phc hi ngay tc
khc v cc nh ch ti chnh lnh mnh hn c th sng
st. Khong 40 t $ c nhng ngi Nga gi bng tin
nc ngoi. Vi mt hi ng tin t h c th c quyn
r mua tri phiu chnh ph c mnh gi rp vi sut thu

*
Currency board: mt h thng t gi c nh c bit trong ng tin ni a c m
bo 100% bng cc khon d tr ngoi t. T gi c c nh vi mt ngoi hi no .
GEORGE SOROS
___________________________________________________

252
nhp hp dn. Nu h lm vy, tn dng d phng ca G7
khng cn phi dng n. Vic gim li sut s gip chnh
ph tho mn cc mc tiu ti kho ca mnh.
Nu gi nh G7 sn lng a 15 t $ ngay tc th, tnh
hnh c th c n nh thm ch khng cn n hi ng
tin t, mc d n ko di hn v thit hi s ln hn. S
kh thc hin s hiu chnh tin t hn ch m khng c
mt hi ng tin t v p lc ph gi tip na s tr nn
khng th cng c, nh xy ra Mexico thng 12-
1994.
Nu hnh ng b tr hon, ci gi cho cu nguy s tip
tc tng ln. Chi ph ch l 7 t $ mt tun trc y.
ng tic, cc nh chc trch ti chnh quc t khng
nh gi ng tnh khn cp ca tnh hnh. Cc la chn
kh d khc l v n hay siu lm pht. C hai s u c
cc hu qu ti chnh v chnh tr tn khc.


Th Nm, 13 thng Tm

Rp (giao ngay) = 6,35
Rp K hn = 162%
GKO = 149%
Prins = 23,76%
S&P = 1.074,91
Tri phiu kho bc M 30 nm = 5,65%

Sau khi ti vit bc th cho t Financial Times, Ph Thng
c Ngn hng trung ng Nga p t mt s hn ch ln tnh
chuyn i ca ng rp. N c mt tc ng tn ph ln
th trng Nga: Cc c phiu m mc thp hn 15 phn
trm v khng phc hi my. Bc th ca ti nhn c
nhiu ch , nhng h li nhn mnh ch trng ph gi ca
ti, ch khng v xut ca ti v mt hi ng tin t. N
tr thnh mt yu t trong ci c gi l Th Nm en
ti. Ti b kt ti u c chng ng rp. khng phi l ci
Ai mt nc Nga
__________________________________________________



253
ti c nh. Ti cm thy buc phi a ra mt tuyn b
nh sau:

S ri lon trong cc th trng ti chnh Nga khng do
bt k ci g ti ni hay lm. Chng ti khng c v th
ngn bng rp v khng c nh no bn non ng tin.
Thc ra, danh mc u t ca chng ti s b hi bi bt k
s ph gi no.
Mc ch ca bc th ca ti cho t Financial Times
l a ra mt li ku gi cnh tnh cho cc chnh ph G7.
Trong khi chnh ph Nga ang lm mi th trong quyn
hn ca mnh i ph vi tnh hnh, n khng th thnh
cng m khng c tr gip thm t nc ngoi.


Th Su, 14 thng Tm

Rp (giao ngay) = 6,35
Rp K hn = 162,7%
GKO = 172%
Prins = 23,01%
S&P = 1.062,75
Tri phiu kho bc M 30 nm = 5,54%

Ti ni chuyn vi B trng B Ti chnh Rubin v
nhn mnh tnh khn cp ca tnh hnh. ng ta hon ton
thc c nhng mi quan tm ca ng khng c cc chnh
ph G7 khc chia s, iu ch yu khng t c do ngh h.
Ngh s Mitch McConnel lin h vi ti v ti thc gic ng
gi in thoi cho Rubin m bo vi ng ta s ng h ca
ng Cng ho trong ci c th l mt hnh ng rt ri ro.
Mun hn trong ngy ngi ta tip cn ti nhn danh
Kiriyenko. ng ta vn tm kim khon vay bc cu 500 triu $
nhng khon khng cn thc t. Ti ngh bay sang
Moscow tho lun cc vn ln hn nu iu c th
gip c g.

GEORGE SOROS
___________________________________________________

254

Ti Ch Nht, 16 thng Tm

Rp (giao ngay) = 6,35
Rp K hn = 162,7%
GKO = 172%
Prins = 23,01%
S&P = 1.062,75
Tri phiu kho bc M 30 nm = 5,54%

Ti dng hu ht cui tun Nga. Ti tr li phng vn
trn i pht thanh Echo [Ting vng] Moskva gii thch lp
trng ca ti, v mt tuyn b ca ti c c trn TV
Nga. Ti hi vng tm c cch sa li n tng sai rng ti
ch trng ph gi khi ti cu khn lp hi ng tin t hoc
rng ti c th c li t ph gi bng cch no . Ni
chuyn vi Gaidar dm ba ln. Chun b mt bi ch trng
gii php hi ng tin t v gi cho ng ta chun y. ng
by gi (6:30 chiu Th Hai, gi Moscow) ng ta ni vi ti
rng ng ni chuyn vi Larry Summers [Th trng Ti
chnh] v khng c tr gip no; h s phi hnh ng n
phng. Ti ni bi bo ca ti khng cn thch hp nhng
ng thc ti cng b n du sao i na. Ti khng.

Th Ba, 18 thng Tm

Rp (giao ngay) = 6,80
Rp K hn = 305%
GKO
62
=
Prins = 29,41%
S&P = 1.101,20
Tri phiu kho bc M 30 nm = 5,56%

Th Hai, a ngc bung ra. Nc Nga p t vic hon n
v ni rng di mua bn ng rp, thc t ph gi n n 35

62
Bun bn GKO ngng li t 17 thng Tm, cho nn khng c s liu v loi ny cho cc
bng cn li.
Ai mt nc Nga
__________________________________________________



255
phn trm. Ti hn, cc ngn hng Nga khng c php
thc hin cc ngha v vi nc ngoi ca h. iu ny gy
tn ph gia cc i tc nc ngoi, bn tng bn tho cc
chng khon Nga vi bt k gi no. David Lipton gi cho ti
nh gii thch v gi ti vit cho h mt th bo.
c li ti thy n hi b xuyn tc. im m ti th a ra
l vn cha qu mun tm mt gii php xy dng cho
khng hong Nga. G7 phi a ra ngh a tin mnh
cn cho vic lp mt hi ng tin t vi iu kin Duma
thng qua cc lut cn thit tho mn cc iu kin ca
IMF. C hai kh nng: Duma c th ng hay t chi kin
ngh. Trong trng hp u, gi tr ng rp s c phc
hi, n bng rp c th c ti c cu mt cch trt t, v
cc ci cch c cu (bt cc cng ti khng np thu ph sn,
v. v.) c th c tin hnh. Hu ht cc ngn hng Nga s
v v cc ngn hng v qu quc t c hp ng vi cc ngn
hng s chu tn tht; nhng cc ngha v ca chnh ph
Nga s ly li c gi tr no y, cc ngn hng tt hn s
sng st, v s sp s ngng li. Trong trng hp th hai,
s sp tip tc nhng trch nhim s ri vo Duma.
Yeltsin c th gii tn Duma, nh ngy bu c, v thc hin
ci cch. Nu chng thnh cng, chng s c c tri tn
thnh. Ngay c nu Eltsin khng c kh nng i ph vi tnh
hnh hay ci cch t thnh cng hn, chng ta c th lm
ci chng ta c th v chng ta gi cho ngn la ci cch vn
cn Nga. N l mt chin lc c ri ro cao nhng khng
lm g thm ch cn c ri ro cao hn.

Th By, 22 thng Tm

Rp (giao ngay) = 7,15
Rp K hn = 443%
GKO = ngng giao dch
Prins = 36,05%
S&P = 1.081,18
Tri phiu kho bc M 30 nm = 5,43%
GEORGE SOROS
___________________________________________________

256

Cc th trng quc t b tc ng xu bi khng hong
Nga trong hai ngy cui cng. Th d, th trng c phiu
c st 6 phn trm ngy Th Su. Ti thy ngc nhin l
nhiu thi gian n vy cho ng penny (xu M) st. Cng
s ca ti m bo vi ti rng th trng c phiu Hoa K
c mt y tm thi rt tt vo th Su v chng ti l
ngi mua c phiu v ngi bn cc quyn chn bn. Gia
chng, trong ton b th nghim thi gian thc ny chng ti
khng mua bn bt k chng khon Nga no.
Ti c thc y tng ca ti cho bt k ai ngi c
th nghe trong tun nhng chng ch g. N c th gip
tnh hnh chnh tr Nga. Nh tnh hnh ny, Duma s khng
thng qua cc lut v IMF s khng gii ngn t hai ca gi.
Khng cn c tin n t nc ngoi trong tng lai thy
trc c, Yeltsin phi nh m chnh ph hin thi v tm
mt ngun ng h mi trong nc. Nhng u? Nhng k
u s b yu i ch t. Gazprom v mt vi cng ti du vn
cn. Tr li vi Chernomydin? ng ta chc chn khao kht.
Nhng chng ch no thnh cng, v thiu ch chnh tr
sa cha cc sai st c cu. Pha xung c b ng.

Ch Nht, 23 thng Tm

Yeltsin gii tn chnh ph v ti ch nh Chernomydin. By
gi ti khng th tin on n c na.

Th T, 26 thng Tm

Rp (giao ngay) = 10,00
Rp K hn = 458%
GKO = ngng giao dch
Prins = 42,83%
S&P = 1.084,19
Tri phiu kho bc M 30 nm = 5,42%

Ai mt nc Nga
__________________________________________________



257
Khng c gii hn liu s sp c th i xa n u. S tan
r ca h thng ngn hng Nga ang xy ra mt cch v trt
t. Cc ngn hng ngng chi tr v cng chng hong lon.
Cc iu khon v kin ngh chuyn i GKO c cng b
v lc u chng c tip nhn rt tt nhng ng rp ri
t do, lm cho kin ngh v gi tr v thc tin. H thng ti
chnh quc t tri qua vi ri lon. C th c cc hp ng
tin t c 75-100 t $ ang tn ng v khng r ci no trong
s c thc hin. Mt hng t vn v tn nhim h
hng ngn hng thng mi c ln nht. Mt yu t m
nht v ri ro tn dng c a vo cc giao dch hon i
lin ngn hng quc t. Chc n l tm thi nhng c th tit
l cc yu im khc v mc n by cao c dng.
Cc th trng c phiu chu u v Hoa K rng mnh
nhng chc s im tnh li c. S sp Nga kt thc
vi cc h qu chnh tr v x hi khng lng c.
l kt thc ca nht k.


nh hng ca s v n Nga ln cc th trng ti chnh
quc t c tho lun ri. Tc ng ln nn kinh t Nga
t tn khc hn d tnh. S v n v tn phiu kho bc em
li s du bt cho ngn sch; s phc hi gi du gip
c cn i ti kho v thng mi; v s ph gi do Yeltsin
cng b ma h 1998 dn ti cu tng ln i vi cc sn
phm ni a. Sau c sc ban u do sp h thng ngn
hng gy ra, nn kinh t n y v bt u phc hi. Cc
ngn hng v nhng k u s chu tn tht nghim trng,
nhng trong vng mt nm GNP ca Nga cao hn mc
trc khng hong ti chnh. Ngay c cc ch n nc ngoi
cng c ngh cch gii quyt m h thy thun li
chp nhn.
Tin ho chnh tr v x hi Nga t tho mn hn nhiu.
Gia nh Yeltsin, di s ch o ca Boris Berezovsky,
tm kim mt ngi k v ngi s bo v h khi b truy t
sau bu c tng thng. Cui cng h tm c mt ngi
GEORGE SOROS
___________________________________________________

258
Vladimir Putin, gim c C quan An ninh Lin bang. Ma
h 1999, ng ta c a ra lm th tng v c chn nh
ng vin ca Yeltsin cho chc tng thng. c bng n v
hot ng khng b Chechen. Khi Shamil Basayev, mt th
lnh du kch Chechen, xm ln lng ging Dagestan, Putin
phn ng mnh lit. Cc lc lng an ninh Nga tn cng
nhng ngi Chechen v Putin a ra ti hu th, tuyn b
rng bn khng b Dagestan s c qut sch vo 25 thng
Tm. Mc tiu thi gian t c. Dn c Nga phn
ng li cch gii quyt tnh hnh ca Putin mt cch nhit
tnh, v s ni ting ca ng ln rt cao.
Sau mt lot v n y b n Moscow ph hu ton b
mt s nh chung c, git hi khong ba trm ngi khi h
ng. Trong hong lon xy ra sau , s lo ngi v cm gin
hng chng li nhng ngi Chechen, c tr gip bi mt
chin dch phi hp cn thn gia cc phng tin bo ch v
TV. Putin xm chim Chechnya, v bu c Duma c tin
hnh trong bu khng kh cung chin. Rt t cc ng c vin
dm chng li s xm chim.
Grigory Yablinsky l mt trong s t . ng ng h
chin dch chng khng b Dagestan nhng vch ng
ng xm ln Chechnya. S mn m ca i chng vi
ng ca ng (Yabloko) rt thm hi v ch va ngng 5
phn trm phiu bu c mt Duma. ng ng h chnh
ph, ng Thng nht, va c vi v nn ra m khng c
bt k chng trnh nht qun no, v hng th hai sau nhng
ngi Cng sn, vi 23 phn trm. Lin minh cc Lc lng
cnh Hu, do Chubais, Sergei Kiriyenko, v cc nh ci cch
khc lnh o, i theo Putin v t thnh tch kh vi 8,6 phn
trm. Yevgeni Primakov, ngi vi s ng h ca Th trng
Moscow Yuri Luzhkov c coi l mt ng vin tng
thng sng gi, b nh bi hon ton; ng ca h ch
c 13 phn trm. S dng do thng li v bu c Duma
em li, Yeltsin cng b vic t chc ca mnh vo m Giao
tha, hu nh thc s m bo s la chn Putin nh ngi
k v ca mnh. Primakov rt khi danh sch ng c vin.
Ai mt nc Nga
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259
S ni ln k l, chng bit t u, ca Putin ging k
qui vi mu m chnh tr m bo s ti c ca Yeltsin nm
1996. T kinh nghim lu i vi Berezovsky, ti thy bn
tay ca ng ta trong c hai hot ng. Ti gp ng ta ln u
lin quan n ng gp 1,5 triu $ ca ng vo Qu Khoa hc
Quc t khi gim c iu hnh qu, Alex Goldfarb, gii thiu
chng ti vi nhau. Ti m t cuc tho lun c bit r
Davos; ri sau Berezovsky t cho l chnh cuc ni chuyn
ny l ci a ng n lp ra mt hi ng h cho vic ti c
c ca Yeltsin. Trong nm 1996 chng ti c mt s cuc
trao i rt thng thn v cuc vn ng ti c; ti mun bit
ng ta hnh ng ra sao.
Th ri n th ch trong u gi Svyazinvest, nhng
chng ti tip tc ni chuyn. Ti c th ci bin ng ta t
nh t bn n cp thnh nh t bn hp php; ng c li
dng ti trong t vn ng cho chc ch tch Gazprom - t
chc thng mi hng mnh nht nc Nga. Thng Su 1997
ng mi ti n Sochi thm Viktor Chernomydin, ngi
l ch tch Gazprom trc khi ng tr thnh th tng, v sau
a ti v Moscow trn chic my bay ring ca ng.
Berezovsky ni vi ti rng c Chubais ln Nemtsov ng h
s c ng. Ti khng tin ng ta, nn ti hi Nemtsov.
l ln u tin ng nghe v chuyn . Vt qua xc ca
ti l phn ng ca ng.
Sau ti n tra vi Berezovsky cu lc b ca
ng ta, c trang tr, c ch hay khng, rt ging s miu
t Hollywood v mt ni lui ti ca mafia. Ti l khch duy
nht. Ti khng ni cho ng ta Nemtsov ni g, nhng ti
ni vi ng ta rng ti hi Nemtsov v ng ta t chi
bit bt k th g v yu cu ca Berezovsky i vi chc ch
tch Gazprom. iu ny lm cho Berezovsky rt tc gin, v
s tc gin ca ng lm ti n lnh. Ti thc s cm thy ng
ta c th git ti. V tuy ng ta khng ni tot ra, ng ta lm
cho ti cm thy rng ti phn bi ng ta bng cch ni
chuyn vi Nemtsov. l im ngot trong quan h ca
chng ti. Chng ti tip tc ni chuyn vi nhau - mt ln
GEORGE SOROS
___________________________________________________

260
Berezovsky bay sang New York gp ti nhng t ti c
gi khong cch.
Nh ti ni, s bt ho gia nhng k u s, v c
bit mu thun gia Berezovsky v Chubais, l mt tnh tit k
qui, mc d khng k qui nh tin c Putin lm ngi k v
Yeltsin. Berezovsky nhn th gii qua lng knh ca li ch
ring ca mnh. ng ta chng kh khn g t s phn ca
nc Nga di s phn ring ca mnh. ng ta tht s tin
rng ng v nhng k u s du kh mua chnh ph bng
cch tr cho s ti c ca Yeltsin v rng chnh ph bi
c bng cch cho php u gi tht s i vi Svyazinvest.
ng ta quyt tm h b Chubais v phn bi ng ta. Khi ti
cnh co ng ta rng ng ta ang ph hu ci lu quanh mnh,
ng ta tr li rng ng ta khng c la chn no; nu ng ta
chng t bt k s yu ui no ng ta khng th sng st.
Ti khng th hiu iu ny lc , nhng sau nhn li
n hon ton c l. Berezovsky khng th tin hnh chuyn
i sang hp php; c hi duy nht ca ng ta tn ti l gi
ngi ta mc vo tm li cc quan h bt hp php m ng
ta dt ra. ng ta nm cht Yeltsin v s gip bt hp
php m ng ta dn xp cho gia nh Yeltsin. Th d, ng ta
lm cho con r ca Yeltsin lm gim c Aeroflot, thu
nhp ngoi t mnh ca hng hng khng c hng sang
mt cng ti Thu S gi l Forus, m h gii thch cho ti, n
gin c ngha l: For us: Cho Chng ta. iu ny cho
ng ta quyn lc i vi Eltsin m chng k u s no c
c. Berezovsky cng nm chc Chubais, v khi n cc
im ca trc trc ng ta khng do d s dng n. 90.000
$ m Chubais nhn c dng hp ng cho mt cun sch
rm gy ra s suy sp tm thi ca ng.
y l vin cnh m ti p dng cho cc s kin tip theo.
Berezovsky v gia nh Yeltsin tm cch duy tr mi quyn
min tr m h hng di chnh quyn Yeltsin. H th
nhiu cch, mt s tht l bch. Mt lc Yeltsin, vi s xi
gic ca Berezovsky, thng bo cho ch tch Duma l ng s
b nhim Nikolai Aksyonenko lm th tng, song Chubais
Ai mt nc Nga
__________________________________________________



261
can thip; vn bn chnh thc gi Duma b nhim Sergei
Stepashin. Ri th Stepashin b y khi chc v. Tnh hnh
ca Berezovsky tr nn tuyt vng khi scandal v ra tin bt
hp php ngn hng Hoa K n ra nm 1999, v ng ta bit
rng ng ta khng cn c th tm thy ni n nu phng
Ty. Bng cch ny hay cch khc ng ta phi tm ra mt
ngi k v Yeltsin ngi c th bo v ng ta. l khi k
hoch bt ng vin Putin c ngm ngm by t.
Trong chuyn bay t Sochi v Moscow vo nm 1997
Berezovsky ni vi ti chuyn ng ta tr tin nhng
ngi cm u qun s chng Nga Chechnya v Abkhasia
ra sao. Cho nn khi nh lnh o Chechen Shamil Basayev
xm chim Dagestan, ti nghi ng c s di tr. V ti t ra
mt th nghim: Liu Basayev c rt vo thi hn m Putin
a ra khng? ng ta rt lui. Ngay c ng nh th, ti
khng th tin lm rng cc v n cc to nh chung c
Moscow c th l mt phn ca k hoch bin minh cho
chin tranh. N qu c c. N c th khng l n nht
lch s Nga y ry cc ti c do nhng k khiu khch b nh
gy ra, t Azev ip vin thi sa hong cho n mu st
Kirov, c dng bin minh cho s thanh trng ca Stalin
nhng bn thn n tuy vy s l mt hng tht khc bit.
Tuy nhin, ti khng th loi tr kh nng y. T quan
im ca Berezovsky vic t bom c l hon ton. Cc cuc
tn cng khng b ny khng ch chn mt tng thng, ngi
s cho Yeltsin v gia nh ng s min tr; chng cng cho
Berezovsky nm chc Putin. Cho n nay, khng c bng
chng no ni ln ph nhn l thuyt ny.
Trong khi chng ta c th chng bao gi tm ra s tht v
cc v n Moscow, khng c nghi ng g rng chin tranh
Chechnya y Putin n chin thng. Ti thy iu ny,
ni gim nh i, gy au n. Gia 1994 v 1996, trong chin
tranh trc Chechnya, dn Nga b au kh khi h nhn trn
TV s tn ph v au kh m s xm ln Chechnya gy ra. S
phn i ca cc b m nhng ngi lnh v cc nh hot
ng nhn quyn nh Sergei Kovalev gip dn n s gii
GEORGE SOROS
___________________________________________________

262

quyt qua m phn. Ln ny phn ng ca dn c Nga tri
ngc r rt vi thi trc. Phi tha nhn l nhng k
khng b Chechen phi chu li chnh; chng bt cc cng
nhn tr gip v cc nh bo, gi h i tin chuc, v
nhiu khi git h. Fred Cuny, anh hng ca Sarajevo, b
mng theo cch ny. Hu nh chng c ai dm dnh vo
chuyn gip nhng ngi Chechen hay a ra cng khai s
tn nhn m h phi chu. Cng c s thao tng kho lo
tnh cm cng chng chng li chng. S thc vn l thi
ca dn Nga l rt khc thi vi nm trc.
Ban u ca thi k sau Gorbachev, ngi Nga c c cm
tch cc chng li bo lc. Thc ra, c rt t mu chy trong
nhng ngy u, v him khi ngi ta b git - Tbilisi,
Georgia, Vilnius, Lithuania, v thng Mi 1993 tr s
ca Duma cng lun quay ra phn i nhng k s dng v
lc. Khng cn th na. Bng bu Putin thng Ba nm 2000,
ngi dn Nga b dnh lu vo s chm git Chechnya.
C mt l thuyt rng mt nn nhn, ngi b hnh hung
mc, tr thnh b li ko vo bo lc. Hnh mu khp vi
trng hp ca nhiu k phm ti hung d v n dng nh
cng p dng cho bo lon sc tc.
63
Nhng ngi Serb t lu
t coi mnh l cc nn nhn, v Slobodan Milosevic c th
li dng tnh cm ny trong theo ui chnh sch thanh lc
sc tc. Ci g tng t dng nh xy ra Nga.
Putin s c ti lp mt nh nc mnh, v rt c th ng s
thnh cng. Theo nhiu cch, c th l mt s pht trin
ng mong mi. Nh bi hc Nga dy chng ta, mt nh
nc yu c th e do n t do. Mt chnh quyn c th
thc thi php lut l khng th thiu c cho s hot ng
ca mt nn kinh t th trng. Bng thc hin chuyn i t
ch ngha t bn n cp sang ch ngha t bn hp php,
Putin c th hon ton ch huy s phc hi kinh t Nga; cc
khon u t ca ti Nga bao gm Svyazinvest cui
cng c th c kt qu.

63
Xem Richard Rhodes, Why They Kill: The Discoveries of a Maverick Criminologist (New
York: Knopf, 1999).
Ai mt nc Nga
__________________________________________________



263
Nhng nh nc ca Putin chc khng c xy dng trn
cc nguyn l ca x hi m; c kh nng hn n s da trn
s suy i o c, ni nhc, v tht vng m nhn dn Nga
tri nghim sau s sp ca h thng Soviet. Putin s tm
cch ti thit lp uy quyn ca nh nc trong nc v vinh
quang ca nc Nga nc ngoi. Nc Nga khng mt i;
ngc li, n c th hi sinh vi Putin. Nhng phng Ty
mt Nga nh mt ngi bn v ng minh v nh mt ngi
ng h cc nguyn l ca x hi m. Mt th r nh pha l:
Trin vng m chng ta i mt nc Nga c th trnh
c nu bn thn cc x hi m ca phng Ty cam kt
vng chc hn cho nguyn l ca x hi m.
Trong bi ni t bit, Yeltsin xin nhn dn Nga th li:

V s thc l nhiu hi vng ca chng ta khng thnh
hin thc. V nhng vic dng nh n gin i vi chng
ta li ho ra gay go. Ti mun xin c lng th v s thc
rng ti khng c kh nng bin minh cho hi vng ca
mt s ngi tin rng chng ta c th c kh nng tin ln
trong mt t t kch t qu kh ton tr xm ngt v tr tr
sang mt tng lai ti sng, giu sang v vn minh. Bn
thn ti tin th. Nhng n khng xy ra nh vy. Theo
cch no , ti qu u tr.

Ci m Yeltsin khng ni l ng v nhiu ngi khc
t nim tin ca h vo phng Ty, nhng phng Ty
khng xng ng vi cc k vng, phi th nhn c cng
iu, ca h. Ti c th ni ch cho chnh mnh. u tin ti
ngh rng cc chnh khch Ty phng n gin khng
hiu ci g ang xy ra. Rng Gorbachev sn lng thay i
h thng l qu tt c th l tht, nn h mun th thch
ng ta. H t ra cc chng ngi, v khi Gorbachev
vt qua chng, h t cc chng ngi cao hn. Cui cng
h phi tha nhn rng s thay i l thc s, nhng gia
chng h mt mi s tn trng i vi Nga nh mt siu
cng. H bt u coi ngi Nga nh nhng k n my. H
tm thy tin Lut Nunn-Lugar gip h gii tr v kh ht
GEORGE SOROS
___________________________________________________

264
nhn, song chng c my cho bt k vic g khc. Ti nh
mt kinh t gia Nga, Nikolai Schmelyov, ni vi ti l nm
1990 ng ta bay nm gi lin vi B trng B Ngoi giao
Hoa K James Baker cu xin gip - chng ch g.
Ti cng nh Alexander Yakovlev, ng lc ng sau
Gorbachev, ni vi ti, mun hn nhiu, ng cm thy nhc
nh ra sao khi giao thip vi nhng ngi M. Vi s hi tic
ti phi kt lun rng phng Ty khng ch my n x
hi m nh mt nguyn l ph qut. Gi nh h lm vy,
chuyn i vn au n, vi trc trc v tht vng, nhng ch
t nc Nga tin theo hng ng. Nc Nga c th tr
thnh mt nn dn ch tht s, mt ngi bn tht s ca Hoa
K, ht nh nc c sau Th Chin II v K hoch Marshall.
khng phi l trin vng i mt chng ta hm nay.

Qu ti tr ca ti vn tch cc Nga v nhn c s ng
h mnh m ca x hi Nga. Chng ti thit lp ba mi
hai trung tm my tnh cc trng i hc a phng. iu
ny gip pht trin h tng c s Internet Nga, v thng tin
trc tuyn ni ln y nh mt la chn kh d i vi bo
ch ngy cng b hm do. Trong hu ht cc chng trnh
mi y ca chng ti, chng ti nhn mnh ngn qu i ng
ca cc nh chc trch a phng. Th d, chng ti cung
cp sch cho nm ngn th vin a phng, v chng ti yu
cu 25 phn trm ph tn cho nm u tin, 50 phn trm cho
nm th hai, v 75 phn trm cho nm th ba v thc s
chng ti nhn c. Khi chng ti mun a ra mt chng
trnh ci cch gio dc su vng (oblast), mi lm vng
kin ngh ngn qu i ng. Ti tip tc cam kt ng h cng
vic ca qu chng no n nhn c s ng h t x hi Nga
v n c php hot ng t do. S tm kim mt x hi m
l ngn la khng th b dp tt ngay c bi khng b ca
Stalin. Ti tin chc rng n s tn ti Nga, bt k tng lai
ca n th no.



CHNG 10

Mt Cu trc Ti chnh Ton cu Mi













hng hong ti chnh 1997-1999 by gi l lch s.
Ngay c nu gi nh cc th trng ti chnh c sp
ngy mai, n s phi c coi l mt khng hong
mi, khng phi ko di ca khng hong va qua. di
ca khng hong ngn hn nhiu v s sa st v hot ng
kinh t nng hn c th d kin lc . iu ny c coi
nh bng chng rng cc th trng ti chnh c cch t hiu
chnh v rng h thng t bn ton cu nh c cu to hin
nay l c bn lnh mnh. Theo l phi thng thng, cc thiu
st l cc nc vp phi khng hong, ch khng phi
bn thn h thng. Cc thiu st ang trong qu trnh sa. H
thng s ni ln mnh hn bao gi ht. Nhng quan st ny
c cng c bi s thc l nn kinh t th gii li tng ln.
K
Ti khng chia s s nh gi lc quan ny. Ti tin rng h
thng t bn ton cu cn xa mi n nh. ng l mt s
khc bit thnh hnh trc khng hong ang c sa cha,
nhng cc khc bit mi th ch chng. i vo khng
hong, can thip ca IMF dng cu cc ch n quc t, to
ra ci by gi c bit n nh him ho o c. Tnh th
GEORGE SOROS
___________________________________________________

266

by gi o ln: S nhn mnh l v ko khu vc t
nhn vo - tc l, khin cc ch n chia s gnh nng ca
cc hot ng cu nguy. iu ny s gii quyt vn him
ho o c v ngn chn cho vay qu th, song cha c dn
xp no c a ra b p cho s khng tho ng hin
ra l l ca dng vn chy n cc nc ngoi vi. Cn i li,
h thng ti chnh ton cu tr nn km vng chi v IMF
mt phn ln quyn lc v danh ting ca mnh.
Ti cao im ca khng hong ngi ta ni nhiu v c
cu ti chnh ton cu v nhu cu cho mt Bretton Woods
mi. S thi thc v ci cch trit by gi lng xung,
v bt k cch no cha c khi ng th khng chc c
xem xt. Kin ngh ci cch trit duy nht l t mt u ban
t vn do Quc hi Hoa K ch nh, U ban Meltzer.
64
N
ch trng thu nh quyt lit cc nh ch ti chnh quc t.
Trong khi t c kh nng c thc hin cc nh ch quc
t khng d thay i n vy n chc s c nh hng g
b, tiu cc ln hot ng ca chng. l iu ng tic.
Chng ta cn cc nh ch quc t mnh hn, hot ng tt
hn, ch khng phi cc t chc yu hn, b bao vy.
V mt lch s, cc khng hong ti chnh lun dn n
tng cng cc qui ch. l cch m hot ng ngn hng
trung ng tin ho n giai on hin thi, rt tinh vi. Cc
th trng ti chnh tr thnh ton cu, v chng ta phi
cng c, tng cng iu tit quc t. Nhng khng hong
1997-1999 ha hn l mt ngoi l: Xu hng hin thi l
gim iu tit. iu c l bi v khng hong ch gy thit
hi cho ngoi vi, khng phi cho trung tm.
Cc ci cch hin ang tin hnh l kh hp v phm vi.
Nhn chung, chng c hng ti sa cha cc thiu st c
cu cc nc i vay v tm cch lm nn lng vic cho vay
khng lnh mnh. tng, rng c th c ci g sai v mt
c cu vi cc th trng ti chnh ton cu, b bc b. Cc

64
International Financial Institution Advisory Commission, U ban T vn nh ch Ti
chnh Quc t (U ban Meltzer), Ch tch U ban Allan H. Meltzer np bo co cui cng
cho Quc hi Hoa K v B Ti chnh ngy 8-3-2000.
Mt cu trc ti chnh ton cu mi
__________________________________________________



267

hc thuyt thnh hnh ca kinh t hc ti chnh vn khng
thay i. N gi thit rng cc th trng, vi thng tin tt
hn, c th t lo cho mnh hoc, chnh xc hn, nu chng
khng t lo c cho chnh mnh th khng ai khc c th; v
th - l l tip tc - nhim v ch yu l lm cho thng tin cn
thit l sn c v trnh bt k quy ry no vo c ch th
trng. p t k lut th trng vn l nguyn l ch o.
Minh bch v thng tin l cc t then cht. Dng php n d
hp thi, mc tiu l sa cha h thng ng nc hn l ti
thit k ton b to nh.
Ti khng h phn i sa cha ng ng nc. Khng
nghi ng g, nhng sai st trong cc h thng ngn hng ni
a l mt yu t chnh trong xc nh mc thit hi.
Ging nh mt cn lc, khng hong gy tc hi nhiu nht
cho cc nc m s chng yu nht, v v th c li
nhiu bng cch cng c cc h thng ngn hng a phng.
Nhng iu l vn liu s phng th quc t cng cn
phi c cng c hay khng. Chng ta khng c qun c
cu ln hn v khng hong va qua tit l mt s yu im
c cu nghim trng, v tht quan trng i sa cc vt nt
trn tng trc khi chng ta trt va che chng i.
*

Thc ra, mt s thay i quan trng xy ra ri trong c
cu ti chnh ton cu m ngi dn khng bit y v
chng. Nhn chung, cc thay i nhm lm nn lng vic cho
vay quc t khng lnh mnh. Khng nghi ng g iu s
gip ngn chn s lp li ca khng hong va qua, do cho
vay khng lnh mnh gy ra. Theo ti, tuy vy, iu ny c
th chun b gy ra khng hong tip theo, ci c th do mt
dng vn chy ti ngoi vi khng tho ng gy ra. Tnh hnh
gi cho ti nh ti Phng tuyn Maginot Php; c xy
dng bo v t nc chng li s lp li ca Th Chin I,
n t ra v dng trong Th Chin II.



*
nguyn vn: trc khi bi giy ln tng ( cc nc tin tin h bi giy thay cho trt va)
cho phng v p.
GEORGE SOROS
___________________________________________________

268
Cc Thiu st ca C cu Trc

Ni v c cu ti chnh ton cu, c bn chng ta tho lun
vai tr ca cc nh ch ti chnh quc t, c bit l Qu Tin
t Quc t. Xem cch IMF hot ng trc v trong khng
hong 1997-1999, chng ta c th nhn ra hai thiu st hoc,
chnh xc hn, hai bt i xng chnh. Mt l s khc bit
gia ngn chn khng hong v can thip vo khng hong;
ci khc l s khc bit v i x vi nhng ngi cho vay v
i vay. Hai ci lin kt vi nhau, v chng l mt phn ca h
thng; nh th khng th tht s li cho ban lnh o IMF.
Phi th nhn, IMF c nhiu sai lm chnh sch. N khng
khng ct chi tiu cng cng khi nguyn nhn trc trc li
c nh v khu vc t nhn; n nh gi thp tnh khc
lit ca s ly lan; v trong trng hp Indonesia n y
nhanh s rt tin t bng cch ng ca mt s ngn hng
m u tin khng thit lp s bo him tin gi. Nhng
cc sai lm c th khng phi l mi quan tm ca chng ta
y. Mc ch ca chng ta l nhn din cc thiu st cu
trc, v chng l nhng thiu st cn n thay i cu trc.
Di cc qui tc thnh hnh, IMF khng c my ting ni
trong cng vic ni b ca cc nc thnh vin tr trong mt
khng hong khi mt nc thnh vin n nh IMF gip .
N c th thm ving v t vn, nhng trong thi k bnh
thng n khng c s u thc cng chng c cng c can
thip. S mnh hng u ca IMF l bo tn h thng. Khi
can thip n ch tm trc ht n tnh n nh ca h thng.
N khng th cung cp bt k s nh bt n no cho cc nc
mc n trong mt khng hong v iu c th c nh
hng tn ph ln cc th trng ti chnh. Cc khon vay n
cung cp v cc iu kin n p t nhm cho php cc nc
mc n tho mn cc ngha v ca h. Bt k s gim nh n
no phi i cho n khi tnh hnh yn lng li.
IMF khng c ngun lc hnh ng nh ngi cho
vay cui cng. N cn s hp tc ca cc th trng ti chnh
lm cho cc chng trnh ca n thnh cng, v cc ngn
Mt cu trc ti chnh ton cu mi
__________________________________________________



269

hng v ngn hng u t bit li dng v th ca h ra sao.
Ngoi ra, IMF b cc nc trung tm ca h thng t bn
ch ngha kim sot; n s i ngc li ch quc gia ca cc
c ng kim sot nu IMF pht nhng ngi cho vay.
Cc iu kin do IMF p t thng bao gm ct bt thm
ht ngn sch v tng li sut. Tc ng l y nc mc n
vo suy thoi, lm gim nhp khu v khuyn khch xut
khu. Thng d thng mi sinh ra cho php nc mc n
lm dch v n
*
v tr n ca mnh. Trong tnh trng khn
cp, cc nh chc trch ti chnh c th cng t p lc ln
nhng ngi cho vay gia hn cc khon vay ca h, nhng
chng thn trng lm ra v l vic cho vay l t nguyn sao
cho cc bng tng kt ti sn ca cc ngn hng khng b yu
i qu mc trong khi khng hong si sc. Mun hn, khi
tnh hnh yn n hn, c th c ti c cu lu di hn v n.
l ci xy ra trong khng hong cho vay quc t ln
nm 1982. Nhiu nm sau khng hong, n tn ng c ti
c cu v ci gi l tri phiu Brady c pht hnh.
Tc ng thun ca cch tip cn ny l t gnh nng
iu chnh ch yu ln cc nc i vay. H c yu cu dch
v cc khon n ca h mc gii hn nng lc ca h.
Nhng ngi cho vay khng th bnh yn v s, nhng s
thit hi ca h nh hn nhiu so vi h phi b nu khng c
can thip ca IMF. Th d, cc ngn hng Hoa K chu thit
hi ln hn nhiu do cc khon u t ri ro ca h i vi
ngnh tit kim-v-cho vay so vi hot ng cho vay quc t
ca h trong cc nm 1980. Ngay c nh th, cc ngn hng
khng mun khoanh tay. Sau kinh nghim ca cc nm 1980,
h tr nn min cng tin hnh cho vay di hn; h thch
bn tri phiu pht hnh cho cng chng hn l a cc khon
vay vo bn tng kt ti sn ring ca h. Nhng ngi nm
gi tri phiu nhy cm t hn nhiu vi p lc t cc nh
chc trch ngn hng so vi cc ngn hng thng mi, nn

*
debt service = dch v n = tin cn c tr li v phn gc n hn.
GEORGE SOROS
___________________________________________________

270
chuyn t cho vay trc tip sang pht hnh tri phiu tng
cng s kim sot v cng c v th u tin ca h.
iu ny tr nn hin nhin trong khng hong Mexico
nm 1994. Trong khng hong , ngi nc ngoi nm gi
tesobonos (tn phiu kho bc Mexico c mnh gi la) vt
qua bnh an v s, mc d khi h mua, sut thu nhp trn
tesobonos ngm nh mt ri ro cao. Khi Mexico khng
th tr, B Ti chnh M v IMF can thip vo, gii thot cho
cc nh u t. ngi ng thu Mexico phi thanh ton.
Kinh nghim ny ng mt vai tr quan trng trong hnh
thnh k vng ca nh u t Nga. Cc ngn hng, nh mi
gii, v qu t bo him tip tc mua tn phiu kho bc Nga
(GKO) ngay c khi mi ngi u thy tnh hnh xu i. Nga
c cho l qu quan trng c th b v n, c th tnh n
cc nh chc trch quc t s n cu. Ngay c nu ngi
nm GKO c b n, t l ri ro-phn thng c coi l hp
dn. Mt s ngi tip tc mua GKO vi sut thu nhp ngy
cng tng cho n khi bn nhc cui cng dng hn li. Ma
mai thay, k vng ca nhng ngi nm gi GKO cho rng h
s c cu vt, gy kh khn cho cc nh chc trch ti
chnh quc t lm vy. Him ho o c vn c trong
phng php hot ng ca IMF c nhn ra, v p lc
chnh tr chng li vic cu vt cc nh u t tr nn qu
mnh. N lm cho cc nh chc trch hu nh bt lc ngn
s v n ca Nga.
S thay i quan trng nht nm y, iu xy ra
trong c cu ti chnh ton cu trong din bin ca khng
hong 1997-1999: N xy ra t t v hu nh khng nhn
thy. Hu ht ngi dn vn cha thc y v n.


C cu Mi ang Ni ln

Vo u khng hong, hai bt i xng m chng ta nhn
din ra - mt gia i x vi ngi cho vay v ngi i vay,
v mt gia ngn nga khng hong v can thip c hiu
Mt cu trc ti chnh ton cu mi
__________________________________________________



271
lc hon ton. V c bn chng gii thch v sao cc chng
trnh chu ca IMF li khng thnh cng n vy. Hy ng
ti ba nc chu cu vin n IMF: Thi Lan, Indonesia,
v Hn Quc. C ba u b mt cn i cu trc: Khu vc t
nhn vay qu nhiu bng ngoi t mnh m khng c t
bo him, v t l vn c phn trn n ca cc cng ti
khng tho ng. Ph gi, khi n, lm tng t l n nc
ngoi trn vn. Li sut cao v s sp t ngt v cu ni
a do chng trnh IMF p t lm tng gnh nng n nn,
gy nghi ng v kh nng tr n ca cc con n. Cho h vay
thm tin khng gip ch. Ci m cc nc ny cn l cch
chuyn n thnh vn gp. Nhng p t s hon tr n v cho
php mt s chuyn i n thnh vn gp s lm tn hi
n cc ngn hng quc t v nhng ngi nm gi tri phiu,
v IMF khng th thm ch d nh mt bc i nh vy. V
th IMF p dng n thuc bnh thng, vi cc hiu ng ph
y cc nc vo suy thoi.
Nhng st gim v hot ng kinh t khng chn s st
gim v tin v gnh nng n nn nng hn bao gi ht.
Cc con n chen ln m bo cc ngha v v ng tin
mnh ca mnh, v cc ch n quc t th c rt bt k ti sn
no h c th. ng tin tng vt - trng hp Indonesia l
ri t do - lm cho cc ch n b thit hi nghim trng. y
l liu thuc gii c kinh tm cho him ho o c. Th ri
n Nga, ni s nhn ra him ho o c cn tr s cu vt.
Cc ch n chu thit hi cn ln hn.
Khi khng hong Brazil ln nh im, him ho o c
tr thnh mt cn nhc tt bc. IMF v cc b ti chnh ca
cc nc tham gia khc nhau khng sn sng chi trc bt
k khon tin no cho Brazil m khng c cam kt t cc
ngn hng thng mi duy tr mc tn dng ca h. Chnh
ph Brazil cng li p lc v cm thy rng mc tn nhim
ca n s b nh hng xu. Cc cuc thng lng ko l
th, cho cc ngn hng c hi gim mc tn dng ca h
hay thit lp cc v th ngn i li vi chng. Cao nh,
khi xy ra, rt khc lit.
GEORGE SOROS
___________________________________________________

272
Vo lc thi ca IMF thay i 180 : Thay cho
cu vt (bailing out), chnh sch chnh thc tr thnh ko
vo (bailing in). Ko vo, theo ti, l s v ngha nguy hi.
N l v ngha v n c ngha l mc nc vo chic thuyn
ang chm; n l nguy hi v n lm chm thuyn.
IMF by gi khng sn lng cho vay i vi cc nc tr
li sut qu cao cho tri phiu ca h tr phi nhng ngi
nm gi tri phiu sn lng chp nhn b n. IMF tm mt
nc ni c th chng minh cch tip cn mi ca n sut t
. N th vi Rumani, song Rumani khng mun v
n; n tr cc khon vay n hn vi cc khon vay mi
cn t hn trc khi nhn khon vay ca IMF cho php
n vay r hn - mt kt qu khng tht tho mn. Cui cng
chnh sch mi c p dng cho tri phiu Brady ca
Ecuador, gi i mt thng ip r rng cho cc th trng ti
chnh rng tri phiu quc t khng phi l khng c ri ro.
Mt trong nhng ci cch hin c xut, song cha
c thc hin, l a ra cc iu khon gi l hnh ng tp
th vo cc tri phiu quc t. iu ny s lm cho vic thc
hin cc s ti c cu n d dng hn. Khng ngc nhin
l xut gp s khng c mnh lit ca nhng ngi nm
gi tri phiu v cc ngn hng u t.
ng thi, tm quan trng ca phng nga khng hong
c nhn ra. Cc n lc khc nhau xc lp cc tiu chun
v tp qun tt nht, c bit trong hot ng ngn hng,
nhm ti phng nga; cc Mc Tn dng D phng Bt
thng m IMF a ra mi y cng vy.
Nh th c th ni l cc xut ci cch khc nhau cp
s khc bit ny hay khc bit khc m chng ta nhn ra.
Mc Tn dng D phng Bt thng c a ra gn y
thm ch bt u lin kt hai s khc bit li vi nhau. To
iu kin thun li cho cc nc theo ui cc chnh sch
lnh mnh to khuyn khch cho h lm vy. Ti ch
trng mt chnh sch nh vy, v ti coi n l s thay i
tch cc nht trong c cu ti chnh ton cu n lc ny.
ng tic t nc biu l mi quan tm li dng iu kin
Mt cu trc ti chnh ton cu mi
__________________________________________________



273
thun li. iu ny khng ng ngc nhin nhn t s thc
rng s sn c ca mc tn dng b rng buc bi thiu vn.
Cc qu no Nhng Dn xp Chung Vay v Nhng
Dn xp Mi Vay (General Arrangements to Borrow and
the New Arrangements to Borrow) l sn c ch cho cc
nc gy ra ri ro h thng; iu ny b ri cc nc nh
cng d b ly nhim. Ti ngh cc Mc Tn dng D phng
Bt thng, c ngha, phi c ng h bi pht hnh
Quyn rt c bit (SDR), nhng iu khng c th.
Xu hng l lm gim, hn l tng, quyn lc v ngun lc
ca IMF. y l xu hng nguy him (nh ti ni r ngay
t u). Mi n lc u hng ti lm nn lng cho vay
khng lnh mnh. Cho n y mi vic u n. Nhng by
gi c mi nguy him l dng vn chy ti ngoi vi s khng
tho ng, c v mt chi ph v khi lng. Mi nguy him
ny khng nhn c s c no v s a chung ph bin l
da vo c ch th trng. c bit n ni chung rng
ri ro ca cho vay quc t c nh gi khng tho ng,
v s mo m c qui cho him ho o c do IMF gy ra.
Tt c iu cn, theo din gii ny, l iu tr him ho o
c. Thc s him ho o c by gi c cha tr, v
iu lm tng ri ro ca cho vay quc t. Trong nhng iu
kin ny, khng m bo rng ri ro c nh gi tho
ng; phi tin hnh cc bc gim ri ro. Nhng xut
ny khng hp vi cch t duy thnh hnh.
Him ho o c tr thnh cu ni thng dng mi
cho nhng ngi theo thuyt th trng chnh thng - v l
cu kh c nh hng. N a ra mt s ng h o c cho
mt nh ch - c th l, th trng - ci l phi o c mt
cch c hu, v n cung cp mt l do bo cha hon ho cho
phn i mi loi can thip vo th trng. Nhng s thc vn
cn l khng th duy tr ngi cho vay cui cng hay chc
nng bo him m khng xy ra kh nng v him ho o
c. U ban Meltzer khuyn ngh rng IMF phi c dng
hu nh l ngi cho vay cui cng i vi cc nn kinh t
mi ni, nhng trong s st sng loi b him ho o c n
GEORGE SOROS
___________________________________________________

274
p t cc iu kin nng n lm cho IMF khng c hiu qu
trong vai tr . U ban Meltzer tuyn b rng cc khon
vay thanh khon phi c o hn ngn, cho vay vi li sut
pht (trn li sut th trng gn y ca nc i vay) v c
m bo bng tri quyn u tin r rng i vi ti sn ca
ngi i vay. t cch, cc nc phi m ca h thng
ti chnh ca h cho cnh tranh nc ngoi, m bo rng cc
ngn hng ca h c cp vn tho ng, v theo cc chnh
sch ti kho thch hp do IMF xc nh. ng nghi l liu
nhiu nc c t cch hay khng v nu liu n c tt
my cho h khng. Chng c my him ho o c
song cng chng my gip ch cho cc nn kinh t mi ni.


y ti mun a ra mt cu ni thng dng khc i
trng vi him ho o c: mt sn chi bng phng. Trong
ti chnh ton cu, sn chi l bt k th g ch khng bng
phng trc khng hong mi y. Chuyn dch t cu vt
sang ko vo s lm nghing thm sn chi chng li ngoi
vi. tng ko vo dnh n loi hi sinh no ca khu vc
t nhn - gia hn khon vay hay ha duy tr mc tn dng.
Nhng khu vc t nhn khng quen hi sinh m khng tnh
tin cho vic . K vng v vic b ko vo s lm cho tn
dng t hn.
Chi ph v vn l mt trong nhng bin s quan trng nht
trong tnh cnh tranh. Cho nn khong cch gia trung tm v
ngoi vi cng dong ra. iu ny xy ra ri. chnh lch
(spread) bt cc nc ngoi vi phi tr cao hn nhiu so vi
trc khng hong 1997-1999.
Ngi ta l l nhiu rng tt c iu ny ch tt hn, v
chnh lch qu thp v cc nc ngoi vi vay qu nhiu.
Lnh mnh hn nhiu nu vic i vay c thay th bng u
t trc tip. L l ny c hiu lc chng mc no . Cc
chnh lch thc qu thp, v u t trc tip n nh hn
v t c kh nng gy ra v hn so vi c u t chng
khon hay cho vay ngn hn. Nhng vn v sn chi
Mt cu trc ti chnh ton cu mi
__________________________________________________



275
khng bng phng vn cn ; tht vy, n b cng iu bi
chnh lch tng ln trong chi ph i vay. Cc cng ti a
quc gia, c ngun lc ln hn v c tip cn tt hn ti vn,
c th tr gi cao hn, sng lu hn, v pht trin nhanh hn
cc cng ti cnh tranh a phng. Ly trng hp Argentina:
Tt c cc ngn hng ch yu tr mt ci u nm trong tay
ngi nc ngoi. Trong t nhn ho cng ti du Argentina,
YPF, do nh nc s hu, cng ti Ty Ban Nha Repsol d
dng tr gi cao hn nhng ngi mua Argentina v n c th
vay r hn nhiu, v cui cng n c th thn tnh ton b
cng ti. S giao dch chng khon Buenos Aires co li
thnh khng ng k v nhiu quy chnh tr thnh cng ti
con ca cc cng ti nc ngoi.
iu ny c th khng ti n th. Thc vy, s quc t
ho v s tuyn b ca cc cng ti a quc gia c th cung
cp cu tr li cho nhiu cn bnh ca th gii km pht trin.
N c th ngn chn cc chnh ph tham nhng v c ti
khi t nn kinh t di cc li ch v li ca chng, v n
c th mang li cc li ch v qun l v cng ngh hin i.
Nhng c mt ci gi phi tr. Cc nc ngoi vi ri s
cm thy v tr thnh thm ch b gt sang bn l hn. iu
ny s khng th chp nhn c v mt chnh tr tr phi n
mang li s ci thin r rt v cc iu kin sng. Khng phi
th trong nhiu phn ca th gii ngy nay.
Cc cng ti kinh doanh kim li nhun, khng phi
truyn b li ch. Cn c vo cc ri ro thm, chng cn li
gp cao hn hot ng phn km pht trin ca th gii.
Mt s dn xp l cn b li cho s khc bit ny. C nh
tnh hnh ny, s hin din ca cc cng ti nc ngoi khng
nht thit ci thin tnh hnh kinh t v chnh tr. Ngc li,
cc cng ti nc ngoi thng hot ng di s mc ngoc
vi cc chnh ph tham nhng v c ti. S bc lt ca nc
ngoi cn ng ch hn s bc lt ni a, v n c th d
kch ng phn ng chnh tr cc oan. Lch s y ry cc
th d: Ni lon Ngha ho on Trung Quc, ch ngha
Pern Argentina, s sung cng cc cng ti du trn khp th
GEORGE SOROS
___________________________________________________

276

gii. Mi e do v no lon chnh tr c th c tc ng lm
gim gi tr ti sn cc nn kinh t mi ni v lm rng
khong cch gia trung tm v ngoi vi. N c th gy ra s
ly lan t nc ny sang nc kia, ging nh khng hong ti
chnh 1997-1999.
Ti khng mun to s bin h ca mnh ng h sn chi
bng phng hn trn mi e do bc lt. Nh ti ch ra
Chng 7, u t nc ngoi mang li ti kinh doanh v cng
ngh rt cn n. Cc nc ngoi vi c th chu ng nhiu s
khng cng bng, v rt khi h thng s cn bt li hn.
Nhng c ci g sai v mt o c trong duy tr mi
nhng s bt cng bng, c bit khi chng l c th trnh
c. Tnh o c thng khng len vo nhng tnh ton
kinh doanh ng ngnh, nhng n phi nm trong nhng tnh
ton chnh tr. Nhng ngi chp ly s bt cng c cm
nhn c th gy ra nhiu thit hi. Chnh l li ch ca cc
nc trung tm h thng t bn ton cu nui dng s
pht trin kinh t v chnh tr ca cc nc ngoi vi.


Mt xut Khim tn

Lm sao chng ta c th to ra mt sn chi bng phng hn?
Ti quan tm n vic to thun li cho dng vn chy t
trung tm ti ngoi vi k t khi khng hong n ra. Ti vit
mt bi bo trong Financial Times (London) ngy 31-12-
1997,
65
ch trng mt s bo lnh tn dng quc t. Ti
bn lun su v tng trong phin bn ban u ca cun
sch ny, l l rng nh ch cp bo lnh s phi hot ng
nh mt loi ngn hng trung ng quc t. Ngy 4 thng
Ging 1999, ti vit mt bi bo khc trn Financial Times,
66

l l bin h cho mt ngn hng trung ng quc t. Ti phi
cng nhn rng t khi khng hong lng i, cc tng ny

65
Avoiding a Breakdown: Asias Demands a Rethink of International Regulations,
Financial Times (London), December 31, 1997.
66
To Avert the Next Crisis, Financial Times (London), January 4, 1999.
Mt cu trc ti chnh ton cu mi
__________________________________________________



277
l qu cp tin. V th ti kin ngh mt ci cch khim tn
hn khng a ra bt k tng cp tin mi no, tuy th c
th lm cho c cu ti chnh ton cu cn i hn v v th c
th ng vng c. Kin ngh ca ti s dng cc yu t ci
cch c a ra ri v lin kt chng li vi nhau theo
cch lm cho chng nht qun hn v ng h ln nhau hn.
l ci c cu c cho l phi lm.


Nhiu bin php cp n hai s khc bit ch yu m
chng ta nhn din. Cc bin php hng ti khc bit th
nht v c bn mang tnh trng pht: cc iu khon hnh
ng tp th cho tri phiu v nhng dn xp khc nhau cho
vic cu cc ngn hng thng mi vo cc gi cu nguy ca
IMF. Chng c thit k loi tr him ho o c bng
cch lm cho nhng ngi cho vay phi chu cc h qu ca
cho vay khng lnh mnh. Cc bin php hng ti s khc
bit th hai v c bn mang bn cht phng nga: gim st tt
hn hot ng ngn hng, s gim st tt hn ca IMF v cc
chnh sch kinh t v m v chnh sch c cu, tnh minh bch
ln hn, v nhng ci tng t. Nhng khng c s lin kt
no gia hai tp cc bin php, vi mt ngoi l: Mc Tn
dng D phng Bt thng, tuy vy, li thiu ngun lc cn
thit. Ti cho rng s lin kt cn phi c tng cng bi
s b sung cc bin php trng pht bng cc khuyn khch
tch cc. C th ti kin ngh gim nh tc ng trng pht
ca cc iu khon hnh ng tp th bng min tr cho cc
nc theo cc chnh sch lnh mnh.
y l cch n hot ng. Di cc ci cch mi c kin
ngh, IMF cam kt ri pht hnh Thng bo Thng tin
Cng khai (Public Information Notices) theo sau cc tham vn
di iu 4 ca iu l IMF, cho cc nh gi ca n v sc
kho kinh t v m ca mt nc v mc tun th ca n vi
cc tiu chun v cc qui tc ng x c xc lp. Ti kin
ngh rng IMF nn i mt bc xa hn v phn loi cc nc
theo thnh tch ca chng. cc nc tho mn cc tiu
GEORGE SOROS
___________________________________________________

278
chun cao nht, cc chng trnh IMF s khng cho php ti
c cu n, cho nn nhng ngi nm gi tri phiu khng
phi s l cc iu khon hnh ng tp th s c vin dn
tr trng hp tht bi ca cc cng ti ring l. iu ny s
lm cho cc nc lin quan c kh nng vay trn th trng
vi li sut thp. cc nc vi cc tiu chun thp hn mt
cht, IMF s khng i ti c cu n trc khi tham gia vo
mt chng trnh, trong khi cc trng hp vi cc tiu
chun thp nht th IMF nht thit i.
iu ny cho IMF mt cng c phng nga hng mnh m
khng xm phm ch quyn ca cc nc thnh vin. IMF c
th phng nga vic vay qu nhiu, th d, bng cnh bo mt
nc rng n s b h cp (nh gi). (Khng c nguy him
no v vay qu nhiu bi cc nc loi thp nht ri).
S m bo ca IMF s gii hn cc tri phiu pht hnh
cng khai v s loi tr cc mc tn dng ngn hng. Cho cc
ngn hng s bo lnh ngm nh li ca trc trc trong
khng hong va qua, v n khng c duy tr mi. Trong
trng hp cc ngn hng, mc n by m IMF cn c th
c cung cp bi cc nhu cu v vn khc nhau di Tho
c Basle tu theo im s m IMF cho. Tho c Basle
ang c xem xt li; iu ny c th c a vo cc qui
nh c xt li.
Ti ch trng thm rng Mc Tn dng D phng Bt
thng phi c tng cng bi s ng h n bng s pht
hnh c bit Quyn Rt c bit (SDR). Pht hnh bnh
thng ca SDR c th c cc h lu lm pht; nhng SDR
c nh du cho Mc Tn dng D phng Bt thng c
th ch phc v cho lm mt tc dng p lc lm pht.
Ba s thay i ny cng nhau s cung cp c cc cy gy v
c c rt m IMF cn tr thnh mt nh ch hu hiu cho
phng nga khng hong. Hn na, cc c c rt s khuyn
khch cho vay di hn, v cc cy gy lm nn lng cho vay
ngn hn. y s l mt pht trin lnh mnh.
Ti tin kin ngh ny c ngha xut chng, th m n vp
phi s chng i kch lit. Th d, Nhm Cng tc c lp
Mt cu trc ti chnh ton cu mi
__________________________________________________



279
v C cu Ti chnh Quc t Tng lai ca U ban Quan h
i ngoi bc b xut ca ti, v ti b t vo bt
ng kin. Mt trong nhng s ch trch l IMF s khng
dm h hng ca mt nc v lm th c th y nhanh khng
hong m n c cho l phi ngn nga. Nhng IMF c li
ch ch nh v duy tr h thng, v h thp hng ca mt
nc sm hn, hn l mun hn, s lm gim s khc lit ca
khng hong. iu ch trch khc l s phn bit gia cc
nc c v khng c t cch s to ra qu nhiu gin on.
Nhng s gin on c th c lm du i bng phn bit
gia cc nc ni phi c ti c cu n, cc nc ni n c
th chu ng nhng khng cn phi c, v cc nc ni n
khng th chu c. Cc yu cu v vn cho cc ngn hng
cng c th c chia cp . Nhng s phn i ch yu tp
trung vo vn him ho o c. Phi chng mt s bo
lnh ca IMF s khuyn khch cho vay khng lnh mnh? Cu
tr li l khng. Nu cho vay khng lnh mnh gy ra khng
hong, th IMF phi chp nhn cc h qu v cung cp tr
gip m khng vin dn n cc iu khon hnh ng tp
th. IMF s chu ri ro tht, nhng khng c him ho o
c dnh vo. N chng t khi nim v him ho o c b
lm dng ra sao.
Cc bin php ti kin ngh - lin kt thnh tch ca cc
nc ring ti loi tr gip m h k vng t IMF - hu nh
khng cch mng g c. N l phin bn thu nh ca s
bo lnh khon vay ban u ca ti. Than i, ngay c mt
xut khim tn nh vy n gin khng c trin vng thnh
cng trong mi trng chnh tr ngy nay. Tm trng ph bin
l th nghch vi bt k can thip no vo c ch th trng.


Th nhng nhu cu vn cn . Thnh cng ca Cc D tr
Lin bang v bo ton s thnh vng Hoa K hon ton tri
ngc vi tht bi ca IMF cng lm vic cho cc nc
ngoi vi. Trong khng hong mi y, IMF p t li sut
pht, v cc nc lin quan lao vo suy thoi su sc. Nhng
GEORGE SOROS
___________________________________________________

280

khi khng hong e do Hoa K th Cc D tr Lin bang
h thp li sut, v nn kinh t Hoa K thot khi v s.
Phi th nhn, tnh hnh ca hai nh ch cn xa mi ging
nhau. Cc D tr Lin bang chu trch nhim v mt h thng
ti chnh m trn n, v cc nh chc trch lin bang khc,
c th kim sot; IMF phi quan h vi cc quc gia c ch
quyn m trn n khng c quyn lc g. Ta khng th k
vng IMF cp thanh khon cho cc ngn hng Nga thng Tm
1998 theo cch Cc D tr Lin bang cung cp thanh khon
cho Wall Street thng Mi 1987. Mt nh chc trch ti
chnh quc t c trch nhim duy tr s n nh ca h thng
ti chnh ton cu phi hot ng theo phng cch khc hon
ton vi mt ngn hng trung ng quc gia. iu ny khng
loi tr nhu cu i vi mt nh chc trch nh vy.
S phn i nng k nht cho tng cng IMF l n thiu
phng php lun phn bit gia cc chnh sch kinh t
lnh mnh v khng lnh mnh.
67
Ti chp nhn tnh hp l
ca s phn i ny, c bit di nh sng ca nhng din
bin mi y. C IMF v B Ti chnh Hoa k, lm ch tnh
hnh IMF, b loi ra khi cch ca mnh tho hip v
nguyn tc vi cc xu th theo thuyt th trng chnh thng
ca Quc hi. iu ny bo trc im g cho nng lc ca
IMF a ra cc ch dn chnh sch ng cho cc nc
ring bit. Sau mt thnh tch rn nt trong khng hong
1997-1999 v by gi di s tn cng, IMF dng nh mt
phng hng ca mnh.
Ti khng v th thit k phng php lun m IMF
cn dng nu gi nh n hot ng nh mt loi ngn hng
trung ng quc t, nhng ti tin bn thn IMF c kh nng
lm vy nu n c cp ngun lc v trch nhim. Hy nh
rng cc ngn hng trung ng quc gia cng thiu
phng php lun thch hp khi chng ln u c giao ph
trch nhim ngn nga khng hong ti chnh v gi cc nn
kinh t ca mnh vng chc, nhng chng pht trin n v

67
Cng s phn i nh th p dng cho cc khuyn ngh ca U ban Meltzer rng IMF phi
thit lp nhu cu ti kho ph hp cho cc nc t cch cho cc khon vay IMF.
Mt cu trc ti chnh ton cu mi
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281
tr nn rt thnh cng vi cng vic ca mnh; ht vy c th
xy ra vi IMF.
Ngn hng Th gii

Ba bin php ti xut s cho IMF sc mnh no ngn
nga khng hong, song chng khng i rt xa to ra mt
sn chi bng phng hn. c bit, chng mang li rt t li
ch cho cc nc ngho nht v mc n nhiu nht, cc nc
nh mt qui tc khng tip cn c ti cc th trng vn
quc t. i vi cc nc cn cc bin php thm. y
ti tm thy s ng h t mt ngun khng ngh n, c th l,
bo co ca U ban Meltzer np cho Quc hi Hoa K.
Bo co Meltzer ngh rng tt c cc khon n ca cc
nc ngho, mc n nhiu, thc hin chin lc pht trin
kinh t cng vi Ngn hng Th gii, phi c c cc ch n
a phng ln song phng xo ton b. Ni chung hn, n
ngh Hoa K phi chun b tng ng k s ng h ngn
sch ca n cho cc nc nh vy. V mc vin tr hin thi
ch l 6 $ trn mt cng dn Hoa K (tng l 1,5 t $), c phm
vi cho s gia tng ng k min l kt qu bin minh cho n.
y l mt li khuyn sng sut, v ti hon ton nht tr.
c s ng h rng ri cho s min n lin quan n K
nim nm 2000, nhng nhng gi ny b lm trt bnh
bi s t chi ca Quc hi Hoa K ng gp phn ca n
vo chi ph cho Ngn hng Th gii chng phi mt th d
khai tr v ch ngha bo th nhn i. S gim bt m cc
nc ngho c th nhn c di s hin hnh vn s
h vi nhiu n m h c th tr v s khng cho php h
pht trin mt ng lc tng trng. Ti i thm mt bc v
nng cao s min n vi mt bin th no ca mt s
bo him tn dng ci c th thu ht vn ti cc nc ny.
Lin quan n Ngn hng Th gii, U ban Meltzer kin
ngh rng n phi rt khi vic cho vay hon ton v chuyn
thnh mt t chc cp tr cp. Cho vay khng hong phi l
trch nhim ca IMF; Ngn hng Th gii nn chuyn mn
ho v tr gip k thut. nh ca U ban Meltzer l thu nh
GEORGE SOROS
___________________________________________________

282
Ngn hng Th gii. Cc nc c gi l c thu nhp mc
trung nh Brazil, Trung Quc, v Nga s tr nn khng t
cch i vi tr gip ca Ngn hng Th gii, v Ngn hng
Th gii s c yu cu gii phng bo lnh do cc nc
pht trin cp khi cc khon vay c cc nc chm pht
trin tr. iu ny rt cuc l mt s chuyn giao ngun lc
ngc ch yu t nc ngho sang nc giu v n to ra ci
ngc vi mt sn chi bng phng. Tuy vy, U ban Meltzer
ng tin hnh xem xt li trit vai tr m Ngn hng
Th gii nn ng trong th gii ngy nay.
Ngn hng Th gii c thit lp cung cp vn cho cc
nc chm pht trin ti thi im khi khng sn c vn t
nhn no c. Vn ca n ch yu c ng gp dng bo
lnh t cc nc cng nghip ho, i li Ngn hng Th gii
c th vay trn cc th trng vn vi mc nh gi AAA.
iu l ca Ngn hng Th gii i hi rng cc khon cho
vay ca n phi c chnh ph ca cc nc i vay bo lnh.
iu ny gy ra hn ch nghim trng ln cc hot ng cho
vay ca Ngn hng: N khng th cho cc doanh nghip hay
cc t chc phi chnh ph (NGO) vay trc tip. Cc bo lnh
tr thnh cc cng c kim sot trong tay cc chnh ph tip
nhn. iu ny khng tin cho pht trin cc x hi m.
Chnh ph ca cc nc pht trin cn c nh hng bt
chnh hn ln cc hot ng cho vay ca Ngn hng Th gii:
H thc y cc khon vay c li cho ngi dn nc h v
ph quyt cc khon vay c th to ra cnh tranh hay lm hi
n li ch ca h.
Ban u Ngn hng Th gii tham gia ch yu vo cc
n h tng c s ln, nhng di s lnh o ca Jim
Wolfensohn n ti nh hng mnh mt cch trit ti ci
cch mang tnh h thng nhm to ra vn con ngi v vn x
hi v xo i ngho. Cng vic ny c th c tin hnh
hiu qu hn nhiu bng cp tr cp v gii quyt cc yu t
khc ca x hi bn cnh chnh ph trung ng - khu vc t
nhn, chnh quyn a phng, v cc t chc phi chnh ph
(NGO). Ngn hng Th gii c b my nhn vin ln v gii
Mt cu trc ti chnh ton cu mi
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283
qu ln, theo Bo co Meltzer, ch yu ly t Th gii Th
ba, quen thuc vi tnh hnh a phng v quan tm n cc
vn x hi. Tuy vy, n b qu qut do phi gii quyt vi
v thng qua cc chnh ph. Theo ti, li ch ch yu ca
cc hot ng cho vay l chng b i mt s tin tu nghi.
Di ch Wolfensohn, Ngn hng Th gii bt tay vo
mt s sng kin x hi rt cn thit, t cho vay cc nh ti
hc t xa, nhng trong quan h vi chi tiu tu nghi ca n
thc s n tha nhn vin. N c th tr nn hiu qu hn
nhiu nu n c nhiu ngn qu tu nghi hn (tc l ngn qu
khng gn vi bo lnh ca chnh ph ca nc tip nhn). S
tin ny c th dng cho vay hay tr cp dt khot hoc
kt hp ca c hai (nh, th d, trong cho vay cc nh).
U ban Meltzer ngh thay tn Ngn hng Th gii thnh
C quan Pht trin Th gii (Wold Development Agency). Ti
rt ng h mt c quan nh vy, nhng ti khng dm ch
trng rng Ngn hng Th gii phi b k sinh nhai ca
mnh - cng vic cho vay - v ti s rng trong bu khng kh
chnh tr hin thi n c th dn n gim ngun lc ca Ngn
hng Th gii, ch khng tng v ngn qu tu nghi ca n.
, thc t, l ci U ban Meltzer kin ngh. N c mt nh
ngha rt hn ch v tnh t cch: Cc nc c thu nhp
trn u ngi hn 4.000 $ b loi tr, v bt u t 2.500 $
vin tr chnh thc b hn ch. Vn c th c gi gp s
c gim theo mc gim danh mc cho vay; Cng ti Ti
chnh Quc t (IFC) s sp nhp vo C quan Pht trin Th
gii v 5,3 t $ vn s tr li cho cc c ng; v C quan Bo
lnh u t a phng (Multilateral Investment Guarantee
Agency) s c gii th. Tht chng khc g mt s chuyn
giao ngun lc t t Ngn hng Th gii cho cc nc giu.
Ti ng l vic cho vay ca Ngn hng Th gii l phi
hiu qu, khng cn thch hp, v theo cch no , l phn
tc dng v n cng c vai tr ca chnh ph trung ng cc
nc tip nhn. Nhng ti khng th ng rng vai tr ca
C quan Pht trin Th gii c kin ngh phi c hn ch
nh U ban Meltzer mun. Vn cn qu nhiu ngho i
GEORGE SOROS
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284
cc nc nh Nga, Brazil, v Indonesia. Cc nc chm pht
trin cng chu s khc bit v chi ph vn. Cc doanh nghip
a phng, nht l cc doanh nghip va v nh, b pht so
vi cc cng ti a quc gia. V th khng c bin minh cho
chuyn li vn n cc nc giu hay hu b vn c th c
gi gp ca Ngn hng Th gii. Ngc li, vn c th c
gi gp phi c dng tch cc hn bng ngh tng tn
dng cho cc doanh nghip va v nh.
Bin i Ngn hng Th gii thnh mt c quan vin tr v
pht trin khng phi l khng c cm by. Loi c quan ny
l kht ting phi hiu qu v k lut m bo tnh hiu qu
chi ph vn cn phi c pht minh ra. Nhng thch thc l
rt xng ng chp nhn. Ht nh cc ngn hng trung ng
tm cch pht trin k lut gi cho nn kinh t vng vng,
mt C quan Pht trin Th gii c th cng lm nh th cho
vic phn pht vin tr. Ban qun l ca c quan phi c
c lp hn vi chnh ph cc nc ti tr. Nguyn nhn suy
bi ca vin tr quc t l li ch ca cc nh ti tr c a v
cao hn nhu cu ca ngi nhn. ng thi, phi c cc bc
ngn chn li ch ca nhn vin khi ch ng c quan.
iu ny c th thc hin tt nht bng t gii hn thi gian
cho vic lm. Hin ti Ngn hng Th gii c nhn vin l
nhng ngi rt c trnh , ch yu t cc nc Th gii
Th ba, m mc tiu hng u ca h l khng phi v nc.
Cch tt nht gi mt c quan c trch nhim s l nht
quyt rng n phi chi tiu cc ngun lc sn c ca n trong
mt thi k c gii hn. iu ny buc n phi quay li cc
nc ti tr xin b sung. Phi u tranh cho sng cn chc
s kch thch c quan nhiu hn bt k phng php kim sot
qui c no.
y khng phi l ci U ban Meltzer ngh n. Tuy
nhin, ti ngc nhin mt cch th v thy im chung no
vi bo co ca u ban. Ti coi hu ht cc thnh vin ca
n l nhng ngi theo thuyt th trng chnh thng. Khng
nghi ng g h phi a ra mt s nhng b v mt trn
i ngho nhn c s chp thun ca mt trong cc
Mt cu trc ti chnh ton cu mi
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285
thnh vin, Jeffrey Sachs; d c ng nh th, s ng h ca
h cho C quan Pht trin Th gii lm ti vui mng. N cho
thy thuyt th trng chnh thng v x hi m khng tri
ngc hon ton vi nhau; s khc bit mang tnh sc thi
tinh t hn.
Ti phn i iu ng trong Bo co Meltzer rng tn s
v tnh khc lit ca cc khng hong ti chnh l do him ho
o c m IMF gy ra hiu hn l do tnh bt n nh vn c
ca cc th trng ti chnh. Tnh bt n nh khng bao
gi c cng nhn trong bo co; s tn ti ca mt sn chi
khng bng phng v nhu cu v hnh ng phng nga bi
IMF cng khng. Tuy nhin, U Ban Meltzer c tha nhn
i ngho nh mt vn cn s can thip tch cc ca cc
nc giu hn. N dng nh ng rng pht trin kinh t
i hi ci cch nh ch cng nh, theo hm , ci cch
chnh tr. Ti hoan nghnh ging sc bn ca bo co. Ti
khng ng vi tt c l l ca n, nhng ch t, ti tm c
vi iu trong tranh lun. Nh mt qui tc chung, ti
thy nhng ngi theo thuyt th trng chnh thng l sng
to v cp tin hn trong t duy so vi nhng ngi t do
theo li c. H c li l c gi ng sau lng h. Ti khng
dm ch trng bin i Ngn hng Th gii thnh C quan
Pht trin Th gii, v s rng n b teo i ch cn g; nhng
h khng s v chnh xc l ci h mun t ti.
Ti tn thnh vi U ban Meltzer rng s mnh v cc
phng php hot ng ca cc nh ch ti chnh cn phi
c xem xt li. By gi khi khng hong trc mt tri
qua, tnh t mn li bt u. Tuy nhin, thi gian tt nht
a ra ci cch l khi khng c tnh trng khn cp trc mt.
Cc ci cch m ti ngh ti l hi khc vi Bo co Meltzer.
Ti s tho lun chng k lng hn Chng 11, ni ti
tho lun c cu chnh tr ton cu. Trong chng ny, ti
mun gii thch chi tit tho lun ca ti v cc th trng ti
chnh.


GEORGE SOROS
___________________________________________________

286

Cc Ch Tin t

Vn ln cha c gii quyt ca h thng ti chnh quc
t l ch tin t. Hin nay chng ta khng c mt h thng
t gi hi oi c xc nh r rng. Cc ng tin chnh dao
ng t do i vi nhau, nhng chng ta khng c s th ni
t do, v thng cm thy rng cc nh chc trch nn can
thip (thnh thong h can thip tht). Cc ng tin th yu
tri t th ni hon ton n t gi hon ton c nh da vo
mt hi ng tin t, vi hu ht cc ng tin nm u
gia.
Kinh nhim ch ra rng bt k ch tin t no thnh hnh
nht thit c sai st. Cc ng tin c th ni t do l bt
n nh mt cch c hu v u c theo xu hng; hn na,
s bt n nh c tch t, v u c theo xu hng hay tng
tm quan trng theo thi gian. Cn cc ch t gi hi oi
c nh l nguy him v chng qu cng nhc, v s v,
khi xy ra, c th l thm khc. Nhng dn xp gia l c
bit phin h. Neo (ghim) ng tin l nguyn nhn trc
tip ca khng hong chu. Ti thng so snh dn xp tin
t vi dn xp hn nhn: Bt k ch no thnh hnh, ci i
lp vi n c v hp dn hn.
nh hng ca khng hong 1997-1999 lm mt uy tn
nhng dn xp na n na kia. Cc hi ng tin t gi vng,
nhng bt k h thng t gi hi oi c nh t nghim ngt
u khng chng ni s tn cng. Hu ht neo tin t
v, v cc nc c bo v ng tin ca mnh lm n km
hn cc nc cho php ng tin mt gi. Kt qu l, chng ta
b b gia hai thi cc: hi ng tin t v t gi th ni, vi
s tri hn ca loi sau. Nhiu chuyn gia th bin h cho
s phn cc ny, nhng h c mt nhim v kh khn v kinh
nghim chng t rng chng thi cc no c th ng vng
c: S bt n nh ca nhng dn xp tin t gia hai cuc
chin tranh dn n Bretton Woods, v Bretton Woods,
Mt cu trc ti chnh ton cu mi
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287
n lt n, v. Ti tin tnh th hin thi l khng n
nh v s khng ko di.
Trong nhng tnh th no , mt hi ng tin t c
bin minh. l trng hp cho cc nc n gia nhp
Lin minh chu u v cho cc nc Balkan hi vng c li
t Hip c n nh cho ng Nam u (xem Chng 11).
Nhng cc bt li ca hi ng tin t c minh ho d d
trong trng hp Argentina. Khi Brazil ph gi, Argentina b
b vi mt ng tin c nh gi qu cao, v li thot hin
nhin b hi ng tin t chn li. Argenina thy mnh
trong tnh trng ti t nht trn i: tht nghip cao gn vi li
sut cao. N phi chp nhn cc chnh sch au n
gim c thm ht ngn sch v thm ht thng mi. Tnh
hnh ging nh ca Anh nm 1925 khi n ti thit lp bn v
vng t gi hi oi khng th duy tr c, nh c J. M.
Keynes phn tch trong cun The Economic Consequences of
Mr. Churchill. Cha c cch no c tm thy iu chnh
t gi hi oi di mt hi ng tin t khi ng tin c
nh gi qu cao.
T gi hi oi th ni t do cng c nhng bt li nghim
trng: N lm cho ri ro khi i vay bng tin nc ngoi v
phi ng tin ni a ra cho tn cng u c. Thiu cc la
chn kh d, cc nc c th b y n ch p t kim sot
vn. iu ny c th lm cho cc nc tm cch gi cho cc
th trng vn ca mnh l m d b nguy him hn, cui
cng gy ra s v mang tnh h thng. Nhu cu pht
trin mt la chn kh d khc l bc bch, ngay c nu s
cp bch khng c cm nhn thy. Cc nc nh nh Thi
Lan l c bit b phi ra cho ri ro.
H thng t gi hi oi l mt trong nhng vn khng
c gii php vnh cu. Hi vng duy nht l lm nh bt vn
thng qua mt qu trnh th v sai. Mt s khi u ha hn
c th l gim di dao ng gia cc ng tin ch yu. Mc
thay i hn 50 phn trm l vt qu cc gii hn c th
chu c. Paul Volker, nguyn ch tch Cc D tr Lin
bang, ch trng a ra cc min (zone) mc tiu cho cc
GEORGE SOROS
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288
ng tin ch yu. Trong khi nh l tuyt vi, phng php
c kin ngh th khng. Cc min mc tiu chnh thc cung
cp chnh xc ci m tn ng : cc mc tiu cho cc nh
u c c gng t ti.
Tnh n nh ca t gi hi oi l ng mong mi, nhng
l khng th xc nh t gi cn bng hay t gi trung tm
phi l bao nhiu. Hy xt tnh hnh hin ti. Hoa K c thm
ht thng mi hn 3 phn trm GNP v ang tng ln, gi
rng ng la phi rt; th m nn kinh t th c nguy c qu
nng, gi rng cn mt ng la mnh. Ngc li, vng
t Euro (mi mt thnh vin ca khu vc euro) v Nht
Bn c hai u c thng d thng mi, lm mnh thm cho
ng tin, nhng cc nn kinh t m yu, biu th ng tin
yu. Sa mt cn i kinh t v mt cn i thng mi nh
th i hi ng tin di chuyn theo hng ngc li. C kh
nng l cc ng tin s thc ra di chuyn u tin theo mt
hng v sau theo hng khc. Mo l hnh dung ra khi
no s thay i hng xy ra - v theo th t no - v chng
lin h mt thit vi vn may ca cc th trng ti chnh v
nn kinh t khc nhau. Hnh ng ca cc nh chc trch c
nh hng ln n kt qu m khng thc s quyt nh n v
c cc h qu khng d tnh trc. Mt th l chc chn: Tnh
hnh khng th c hiu di dng cn bng.
p t mt min mc tiu ln cc nh chc trch s phn
tc dng v n lm gim phm vi vn ng ca h. S n nh
cn c theo ui bng cc phng tin tinh t hn, v mt
phn quan trng ca hnh ng cn i l iu chnh phng
php theo cc iu kin thnh hnh. Cc nh chc trch v cc
th trng tham gia vo tr chi mo-chut khng bao gi
chm dt: C hai pha cn iu chnh theo ng x ca nhau.
Cc nh chc trch cn gi cho cc th trng v nn kinh t
vng vng. Nhng khng phi l mc tiu duy nht. H
mun m bo s tng trng, kim sot lm pht, v, ph
thuc vo cc din chnh tr ca chnh ph, thc y tm nhn
ca h v cng bng x hi. H cng mun ko tm chn v
pha mnh: c li vi s thit hi ca ngi khc. Cc
Mt cu trc ti chnh ton cu mi
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289
min mc tiu khng th dung ho c vi nhiu mc tiu
ny.
Tuy nhin, s n nh ca h thng ton cu phi c xp
hng cao hn mc hin nay. Nim tin rng h thng s lun
lun ly li thng bng l mt li tin tri t hu hoi. H
thng ly li thng bng, v ti sai khi tin on ci cht
tc khc ca n, nhng n c cu bi hnh ng ca cc
nh chc trch ti chnh phn ng li vi mi him nguy sp
xy ra. Thuyt th trng chnh thng c th lm xi mn
quyt tm ca cc nh chc trch trong trng hp cn thit.

Hin ti quyn lc v trch nhim i vi h thng ti
chnh ton cu ch yu thuc v Hoa K. Cc nh chc trch
ti chnh Hoa K thc c iu v c sng theo n,
nhng trch nhim hng u ca h l cho nn kinh t Hoa
K. Nu nhng cn nhc ni a v quc t mu thun nhau,
khng h c nghi ng g ci no s thng. Lp trng ca Cc
D tr Lin bang l tng t nh lp trng ca Bundesbank
trong ni b ERM (C ch T gi hi oi) nm 1992, v tt
c chng ta u bit ERM v. Xung t gia nhng cn
nhc ni a v quc t t r rng hn trong khng hong
1997-1999; tuy nhin hin nhin l Hoa K lm n kh hn
phn cn li ca th gii.
Ti khng c gii php no cho vn ny. Tt c ci ti
c th lm l thu ht s ch vo n. S rt b ch nu c tri
v Quc hi M bit nhiu hn v tnh mong manh ca cc
dn xp hin thi, nhng kh nng mau phc hi ca cc th
trng cn tr bt k ci cch c cu no. Ti kin ngh ba
bc nh, nhng ngay c chng cng khng th chp nhn
c. Ti tin rng hin ti tnh bt n nh ca h thng ti
chnh quc t khng c gii php cu trc no; n nhiu hn
l mt thch thc cho ban qun l hng ngy. Ban qun l ny
c th thnh cng ch nu cc quan chc loi b gi thit theo
thuyt th trng chnh thng rng cc th trng t do t
chng s t ng dch chuyn n cn bng v to ra kt qu
c th chp nhn c v mt x hi.
GEORGE SOROS
___________________________________________________

290
V di hn, c th c mt gii php vnh cu: t b cc
ng tin quc gia. Vic to ra ng euro ang ch ng.
Ngy cng c nhn ra rng c mt ng tin quc gia l bt
li cho mt nn kinh t nh. Trong cnh khn cng, mt s
nc M Latin ang tin n chp nhn ng la nh ng
tin quc gia ca h; nhng iu lm cho s ph thuc ca
h vo cc quyt nh chnh sch c a ra Hoa K cng
hin nhin hn. Cc ng tin quc gia khng th b bi b
m khng to ra mt ngn hng trung ng quc t, v l
mt iu xa vi. Ngay by gi xu hng l ngc li.


Cng c Phi sinh, Hon i, v Chnh lch

Tnh d bin ng (volatility) cc th trng tin t c th
gim i bng lm cho n t c li cho cc nh chuyn nghip?
James Tobin kinh t gia c gii Nobel tin vy, v ti thin
v ng vi ng, song ti cng tin l s sng ch ra cng c
phi sinh (derivative) lm cho kin ngh thu Tobin kh p
dng. on tip, dnh cho vai tr ca cng c phi sinh, nhm
kch thch tho lun, ch khng nhm cho mt n thuc.
Cc cng c phi sinh c xy dng trn c s l thuyt
th trng hiu qu. S thc l chng c dng rng ri n
vy dng nh ng rng l thuyt th trng hiu qu c
hiu lc. Ti khng tn thnh, song ti phi thn trng pht
biu s bt ng ca ti th no; nh trc nhc n, ti
khng nghin cu l thuyt th trng hiu qu chi tit, ti
cng chng mt nhiu thi gian xem cc cng c phi sinh
c lp ra sao. Beta, gamma, v delta, phn ln i vi ti,
l cc ch Hi Lp. C th l iu bt ng t mt thin ti ti
chnh nh ti, song l s thc. N cng l mt biu l s
thiu tin tng ca ti vo l thuyt cc th trng hiu qu.
Nh ti hiu n, tnh d bin ng c th o c, v c
th mua bo him chng li n bng cch tr mt khon ph
cho cc quyn chn (option). Nhng ngi nhn ri ro bng
cch bn cc option c th hoc b ri ro i li cc v th
Mt cu trc ti chnh ton cu mi
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291
hin c ca h hoc ti bo him mnh bng tham gia vo ci
gi l t bo him (hedging) delta. y l mt chin lc
phc hp, nhng n rt li thnh mt phng php kh th v
hn ch ri ro. N ko ngi bn option mua li mt phn ca
chng khon c s khi gi bin ng chng li ngi .
Nhng ngi t bo him delta thng l nhng ngi kin
to th trng (market maker) chuyn nghip kim li nhun
ca mnh t chnh lch (spread) gia gi hi mua v gi
cho bn v hn ch ri ro ca h bng t bo him delta.
Thc hin ng, chin lc ny phi mang li li nhun v
di hn, song t bo him delta to ra ng x t ng theo xu
hng. Khi th trng dch chuyn theo mt hng no ,
nh t bo him delta t ng di chuyn theo cng hng,
mua khi gi ln, bn khi gi xung. Theo cch ny, cc nh
kin to th trng chuyn ri ro ca h cho th trng. Nu
gi nh l thuyt th trng hiu qu c hiu lc, iu ny c
ngha l ri ro bin mt. Ti dm chc rng l thuyt l sai.
Theo ti, tnh d bin ng khng th o c vi bt k
chc chn no v hnh ng o c th tc ng n ci c
o mt cch phn thn. R rng tp qun t bo him delta c
th gy ra mt ri ro bt n nh m trc kia khng c. N
hon ton ph thuc vo liu cc v th ca cc nh kin to
th trng tng thm nhau hay kh ln nhau. Nh mt qui tc
chung, chng kh nhau v nhng ngi tham gia th trng
khc nhau di chuyn theo cc hng khc nhau. Rt t khi, ri
ro tch t mt bn ca th trng v t bo him delta c th
gy ra mt gin on trong bin ng gi. Trong nhng dp
ny, l thuyt th trng hiu qu v. Cc c hi l him
khng lm nn lng vic kinh doanh bnh thng vn c
li, song khi xy ra chng c th c tc ng tn ph. S sp
th trng c phiu 1987 l mt trng hp nh th.
Qun l ri ro, nh c thc hnh cc phng giao dch
ring ca cc ngn hng thng mi v u t, nh gii hn
cho lng tn tht m mt thng gia c th chu. N hot
ng theo cng cch nh t bo him delta. N buc thng
gia gim cc v th giao dch khi chng bin ng chng li
GEORGE SOROS
___________________________________________________

292
mnh. Tc l, thc t, l mt lnh chn ng thua l t p t,
ci cng c xu hng gy ra tn tht trc nht. Cc mi
him nguy ca qun l ri ro nh hin c tin hnh tr nn
hin nhin khi Long Term Capital Management gp kh khn.
ng x theo xu hng ni chung v t bo him delta ni
ring hay lm tng tnh d bin ng ca cc th trng,
nhng nhng ngi kin to th trng c li t tnh d
bin ng v h c th i mt khon chnh lch cao hn v
option; ngi mua option khng th phn nn v chnh lch
cao c bin minh bng tnh d bin ng cao. C th c cc
chi ph che giu i vi cng chng, song chng c che y
rt kho. Nh nguyn ch tch Cc D tr Lin bang Paul
Volker ni, mi ngi u ku ca v tnh d bin ng
nhng chng ai lm bt k th g vi n v cng chng khng
th phn nn v nhng ngi kin to th trng v cng c
phi sinh kim li - bng cch gy ra tnh d bin ng v bn
bo him chng li n.
Cc cng c phi sinh ngy cng tr nn tinh vi, v mt s
mang theo ri ro gy gin on ln hn s khc. S sp th
trng c phiu nm 1987 c y nhanh bi vic s dng
rng ri mt k thut t bo him delta c mua bn di ci
tn bo him danh mc u t. Nhng ngi mua bo him
ny u t mnh hn vo th trng so vi h c th nu
khc i. Khi gim st th trng kch hot bo him, khi
lng bn t ngt gy ra mt gin on, v th trng sp
. ngn ti din, cc nh iu tit a ra ci gi l ngt
mch - ngng giao dch tm thi lm mt hiu lc ca gi
thit lin tc m cc chng trnh t bo him delta da vo.
Cc cng c phi sinh nguy him tng t c s dng
rng ri cc th trng tin t, song chng g c lm
lm nn lng vic s dng chng. Th d, option o vn
ht hn khi t mt gii hn gi no , ngi mua option
khng c bo him. Cc option o vn thng rt c cc
nh xut khu Nht a chung v chng r hn nhiu option
bnh thng. Khi tt c chng b o vn ng thi, thng Hai
1995, ni kinh s xy ra sau a ng yen t khong
Mt cu trc ti chnh ton cu mi
__________________________________________________



293
100 yen mt la ln di 80 yen mt la trong vi tun.
Cc v th option khng cn i gy ra mt bin ng tin
t ln khc v dng nh khng c bin minh lc . Tnh
hnh i s iu tit - hoc ch t s gim st - song ln na,
nh Volcker gii thch, chng c on c tri no la v n.
Ni chung khng c i hi bin hay gii hn qui m no
cho cc cng c phi sinh, hon i, v cc giao dch k hn,
tr khi chng c thc hin trn cc phng giao dch c
ng k. Cc ngn hng v ngn hng u t hot ng nh
nhng ngi kin to th trng c th thc hin cc cam kt
ny nh cc khon ngoi bng. Cc cng c ny c pht
trin trong mt thi i khi ngi ta tin vo kh nng t sa
ca cc th trng ti chnh. Tri li, i hi bin trn mua c
phiu c li t mt thi k d vng. Nu lun im ca
ti ng, v mt s cng c v k thut bun bn ti chnh
mi c sng ch ra da trn mt l thuyt sai cn bn v cc
th trng ti chnh, thiu i hi bin c th gy ra ri ro
mang tnh h thng nghim trng.
mc cn bn hn, chng ta nn xem xt li thi ca
mnh vi cc i mi ti chnh. i mi c coi l mt trong
nhng li ch chnh ca th trng t do, nhng trong trng
hp cc th trng ti chnh i mi c th to ra bt n nh.
Chng ta nn coi cc i mi ti chnh khc cch chng ta
xem xt cc by chut tt hn, cc t ph v cng ngh
truyn thng, v cc sng ch khc. iu ny i hi mt s
iu chnh hon ton, v cc b c tt nht th gii c
thu ht vo cc th trng ti chnh, v s kt hp ca nng
lc my tnh v l thuyt th trng hiu qu to ra s tng
trng bng n v cc cng c ti chnh mi v cc loi
nghip v arbitrage (kinh doanh chnh lch gi) mi. Cc
mi him nguy m chng mang theo b b qua v cc th
trng c gi thit l t sa, nhng l mt o tng. C
cc nh iu tit ln nhng ngi thc hnh khng hiu
ng cc cng c v k thut i mi; cho nn chng gy ra
mt mi e do cho s n nh.
GEORGE SOROS
___________________________________________________

294
Nh ti hiu, l thuyt th trng hiu qu hot ng vi
tng rng chng no gi lm cn bng th trng th n l
cn bng mi mi. Ti hot ng vi tng ngc li: Theo
ti, cc th trng trong bt cn bng thng xuyn v s bt
trc cn bn m nhng ngi tham gia phi ng u. Ti
ngh chnh tng v o ri ro l c sai st v n b qua tnh
phn thn. Long Term Capital Management tin vo
tng rng ri ro c th o c, v lng tin thay i
ln ca ri ro m LTCM gp phi trong hot ng ca n.
C l cc cng c phi sinh v cc cng c ti chnh tng
hp khc phi c cp php theo kiu cc t pht hnh mi
v chng khon phi c ng k vi U ban Chng khon
v Giao dch. N tri vi rng nng lc sng to ca cc nh
i mi [khng] phi chu nhng rng buc do cc nh quan
liu cm ci l m cai qun, nhng chnh xc l ci ti
xut. i mi mang li s kch thch tr tu v li nhun cho
cc nh i mi, nhng duy tr s n nh hoc, chnh xc
hn, ngn chn nhng thi qu phi c u tin hn.
Khi ti ni iu ny ti i ngc li ch c nhn v s a
thch ring ca mnh. Ti l mt ngi ca th trng, v ti
gh tm cc hn ch quan liu. Ti c tm ra cch ca mnh
gia chng. Th d, ti gii hn s cc qu m ti khuyn bo
cho nn ti khng phi ng k vi U ban Chng khon v
Giao dch. Nhng ti tin rng cc th trng ti chnh l
khng n nh mt cch c hu; Ti cng tha nhn rng cc
qui nh c sai st mt cch c hu: Cho nn tnh n nh rt
cuc ph thuc vo tr chi mo-chut gia cc th trng v
cc nh iu tit. Cn c vo s vng v ca cc nh iu tit,
c gi tr no thu hp phm vi v lm chm tc ca
nhng i mi ti chnh.
S v Nga thng Tm 1998 tit l mt s ri ro mang
tnh h thng. S ph sn ca LTCM, mt qu t bo him i
tin phong v s dng k thut qun l ri ro da trn c s l
thuyt th trng hiu qu, chng t s tht bi ca l thuyt.
S thc rng n lc cu vt phi c Cc D tr Lin
bang b tr kho lo chng t rng dnh n mt ri ro c
Mt cu trc ti chnh ton cu mi
__________________________________________________



295
tnh h thng. Nh ti nhc trc, LTCM c mt bn
cn i ti sn hn 100 t $ trn vn c phn t hn 5 t $.
Ngoi ra, n c cc ngha v ngoi bng hn 1 ngn t $.
S trc trc do sp Nga gy ra xi mn vn c phn
xung cn 600 triu $ thi im cu vt. Nu gi nh
LTCM c cho ph sn, cc i tc ca n s c tn tht
ln hng t, c bit v h c cc v th tng t ca ring
h. C nh tnh hnh ny, cc i tc t hp li vi nhau di
s thc gic ca Cc D tr Lin bang v a thm vn vo
cng ti ang ph sn cho php mt s tho g t t. Cc
D tr Lin bang lm ci n c cho l phi lm: ngn
chn s tht bi mang tnh h thng. Mt khi tnh trng khn
cp qua i, h thng phi c xem xt li, v mt s ti din
c ngn nga. Ci cch c th l hi ht, nh vic a ra
ci gi l ngt mch sau sp th trng c phiu nm 1987,
hoc n c th l cn bn hn. Hu nh chng cn nhc li
rng ti ng h mt s t duy li cn bn hn v ti tin rng
cc quan im hin thi ca chng ta v cc th trng ti
chnh da trn cc gi thuyt sai lm.
Tuy nhin, ti khng chc liu a ra i hi bin v hon
i v cc cng c phi sinh hoc cc qui ch khc s lm
gim tnh d bin ng hay khng, v iu ny cng lm gim
khi lng vn m cc nh kin to th trng sn lng dnh
cho vic kinh doanh ca h. Kt qu thun ca qui ch c th
l gim su ca th trng hn l gim tnh d bin ng.
Trong trng hp cc th trng tin t, iu ny c th l
mt vic tt. Hin ti cc nh chc trch thy kh can thip
v khi lng ca cc giao dch - su ca th trng - l
qu ln. Nu gi nh th trng nng hn, cc nh chc trch
c th ly li nh hng ca h. Bng gim tnh d bin ng,
h c th lm gim cu cho t bo him v lm gim bt nh
hng ca ng x theo xu hng. Cc giao dch lin quan n
thng mi v u t s tr nn c nh hng hn, v t gi
hi oi s tr nn tng quan mt thit hn vi nhng ci
cn bn v mt kinh t so vi hin nay.

GEORGE SOROS
___________________________________________________

296
Cc Qu T Bo him v cc Qui ch
Hot ng Ngn hng

Tip theo s cu LTCM ngi ta ni nhiu v iu tit cc
qu t bo him. Ti tin cuc tho lun b hng sai i.
Cc qu t bo him khng phi l cc t chc duy nht s
dng n by; cc phng giao dch ring ca cc ngn hng
thng mi v u t l nhng ngi chi ch yu v cng c
phi sinh v hon i. Hu ht cc qu t bo him thm ch
khng tham gia vo cc th trng . Th d, Soros Fund
Management khng trong tuyn kinh doanh . Chng ti s
dng d xn cc cng c phi sinh v hot ng vi t n by
hn nhiu. LTCM v cch no l c bit: thc ra, n l
phng giao dch ring ca mt ngn hng u t (Solomon
Brothers) cy vo mt thc th c lp. Sau khi t ra thnh
cng, n bt u ra y bn bt chc. Ngay c nh th,
cc qu t bo him nh mt nhm khng ngang bng v
qui m vi cc phng kinh doanh ring ca cc ngn hng v
cc nh mi gii, v chnh mi e do m LTCM t ra cho
cc nh ch thc y Cc D tr Lin bang can thip.
Ti khng bo v cc qu t bo him, v ti tin rng cc
qu t bo him phi c iu tit ging nh bt k ngi
tham gia th trng no khc. Chng l kh iu tit bi v
nhiu qu hot ng hi ngoi, nhng nu cc nh iu tit
hp tc vi nhau th iu ny khng phi l kh khn khng
th vt qua. Cc qu t bo him chng th c min iu
tit cng khng c chn ra cho cch i x c bit.
Theo ti, qui nh v gim st phi c p dng im
ni tn dng c m rng, c th l, cc ngn hng thng
mi v u t. Cc nh chc trch iu tit c quyn lc
can thip ti im , v h c th a cc thc th hot ng
hi ngoi vo di quyn phn xt ca h. Phin l h c
th thiu chuyn mn. Cc giao dch ti chnh tr nn cc
k phc tp, v tr nn hu nh khng th i vi mt gim
st vin nh gi mc n by v ri ro bng cch ng vo
s sch t bn ngoi. Cc nh iu tit thng p t cc i
Mt cu trc ti chnh ton cu mi
__________________________________________________



297
hi bin, ci c gi l cc mc ht tc, v nhng ci tng
t. Cch tip cn ny tr nn khng thc t v cc qui tc th
thin l kh p dng cho cc cng c tinh vi mi c a ra.
Nhng ngi tham gia th trng c th dng cc cng c
lm b tay cc nh iu tit. Nhiu cng c phi sinh c
thit k c bit lch cc qui nh. Cc trng hp rnh
rnh nht xy ra Nht Bn ni cc ngn hng u t quc
t dng nn mt ngnh t ci gi l cc giao dch khng l
khng li (wash). Ti thng ngc nhin bi mt s bin ng
th trng bt bnh thng ch c th c gii thch bng cc
th on c ngh ra tho mn cc i hi ca B Ti
chnh. Credit Suisse mi y b thu hi giy php Nht
Bn do c che y cc hot ng qu kh trong lnh vc ny.
Cc nh iu tit Hoa K nhn ra rng h khng th o ri
ro t bn ngoi v khn ngoan hn da vo cc k thut qun
l ri ro do bn thn cc ngn hng pht trin. Phin vi cch
tip cn ny l cc ngn hng ch phng ri ro khi n nh
hng n ring h v b qua nhng ri ro m ng x ca h
c th t ra cho tp th h. Nh ti ni trc, qun l ri
ro ca h ch l mt lnh chn ng thua l tinh vi. Khi nhiu
lnh chn ng thua l cng c kch, chng c th gy ra
mt dng thc. l ci xy ra trong khng hong LTCM.
Cc nh ch ti chnh c th thn trng hn trong khi khng
hong LTCM vn sng ng trong k c ca h, nhng iu
c th ch mang li mt s cho hon tm thi.
Tho c Basle nm 1988 a ra cc i hi v vn no
cho cc ngn hng thng mi hot ng trn phm vi quc
t. Cc tiu chun chng p dng l th v, ho ra l, lm trm
trng thm khng hong ti chnh ton cu 1997-1999, c
bit Hn Quc. Cc ngn hng quc t kinh doanh vi Hn
Quc c min lp cc khon d tr c bit mt khi Hn
Quc tr thnh thnh vin ca T chc Hp tc v Pht trin
Kinh t (OECD), v iu ny khuyn khch cc ngn hng
cho Hn Quc vay. hon tt n, ngn hng trung ng
Hn Quc ch yu cu ng k cc khon vay c thi hn
trn mt nm, cho nn hu ht vic vay c thc hin di
GEORGE SOROS
___________________________________________________

298

mt nm v ngn hng trung ng chng bit g v khi lng
lin quan. Cc yu t ny lm cho khng hong, khi n n ra,
kh un nn hn. Tho c Basle by gi c xem xt li,
v cc bt bnh thng ny chc c loi b.


Kim sot Vn

Thng l mt tn iu rng kim sot vn phi c bi b
v cc th trng ti chnh ca cc nc ring l, bao gm c
h thng ngn hng, phi m ca cho cnh tranh quc t.
Trc khng hong mi y, IMF thm ch cn kin ngh sa
i iu l ca n lm cho cc mc tiu ny tng minh
hn. Kinh nghim ca khng hong chu lm cho chng
ta ngp ngng. Cc nc gi cho cc th trng ti chnh ca
mnh khp kn chu ng sng gi tt hn cc nc c cc
th trng c m. n t b nh hng hn cc nc
ng Nam ; Trung Quc c cch li tt hn Hng
Kng. kin by gi chia r hn.
c tha nhn rng ri l cc dng vn ngn hn c th
gy bt n nh,
68
v ci gi l m hnh Chile c ca tng
nhiu. Chile p t i hi k qu ln dng tin chy vo
pht cc dch chuyn ngn hn. Chile cng ci cch h thng
an sinh x hi ca mnh, ci to ra mt ngun vn ni a di
hn. Kt qu l, n tng i v s khng hong Mexico
1994-1995 v trong khng hong ton cu 1997-1999.
V phn mnh, cc bin ng vn ngn hn c l hi nhiu
hn l li. Nh khng hong chu chng t, rt ri ro
cho nc tip nhn cho php dng dng vn ngn hn chy
vo cho cc mc ch di hn. Chnh sch thch hp l kh
trng dng vn chy vo. iu thng c tin hnh
bng tch t cc khon d tr, iu l tn km v c khuynh
hng thu ht thm dng chy vo. S bin minh ch yu cho

68
Khng ngc nhin. Vi t cch mt sinh vin ti nghin cu chi tit nh hng gy mt
n nh ca nhng bin ng tin nng trong thi k gia hai cuc chin.
Mt cu trc ti chnh ton cu mi
__________________________________________________



299
vic gi cc th trng ti chnh m, khi , l to thun li
cho thng mi quc t v dng chy t do ca cc cng c
ti chnh di hn nh c phiu v tri phiu.
Cng c tha nhn l m ca qu sm cc th trng ti
chnh gia cc nc mi cng nghip ho Chu l mt
yu t ng gp chnh cho khng hong 1997-1999. Trong
m hnh chu, h thng ngn hng c dng cho cc
mc ch chnh tr. Ban qun l cc ngn hng tr nn quen
vi vic ly ch th t cc bc thy chnh tr ca h, v khng
c chun b cho cnh tranh trn cc th trng m ca.
iu ny ng ngay c vi Nht Bn, nc c mt chnh
ph dn ch; n p dng vi lc mnh hn nhiu cc nc
vi ch chuyn quyn v tham nhng.
Kinh nghim ch ra vic sa sai ny kh n th no. Nht
Bn, nn kinh t ln th hai th gii, vt ln vi n nhiu
nm v vn cha thot. Vn vt qu s qun l cc ngn
hng thng mi n cc nh chc trch gim st. Cc ngn
hng trung ng Indonesia, Hn Quc, v Thi Lan, khng
ni ti Malaysia, lm ti bn phn trong khng hong.
Kinh t gia Paul Krugman chng t l cc nc ring l c
th c li t p t kim sot vn, v Mahathir chng
minh n trn thc tin Malaysia. Nhng gi cc th trng
ti chnh khp kn l khng ng mong mi v mt chnh tr.
Kim sot vn l li mi gi tham nhng v lm quyn. Mt
nn kinh t khp kn l mi e do t do. Mahathir tip tc
vic ng ca cc th trng ti chnh vi cuc truy lng
chng i th chnh tr ca mnh, Anwar Ibrahim.
Nhng vic m ca cc th trng ti chnh cng p t
mt ci gi chnh tr. Trong cc th trng ton cu, cc cng
ti a quc gia v cc nh ch ti chnh c li th ng k hn
cc t chc ni a. Chng c tip cn tt hn ti vn, c c
s rng hn ti tr nghin cu v trin khai, v mt s
phn tn ri ro rng hn. Khng c cc bin php bo h cc
doanh nghip ni a, cc cng ti a quc gia c th nut
chng chng. M hnh chu v pht trin thnh cng n
vy chnh xc v n bo h s tch t ca vn a phng.
GEORGE SOROS
___________________________________________________

300
Quan trng hn, cc th trng ti chnh m hay tc ot
s kim sot s phn ring ca t nc. Cc quyt nh
chnh sch c a ra trung tm h thng ton cu, vi cn
nhc ni a trong u. iu ny c th c cc h qu khng
may ngay c ni khng c s khc bit v ca ci gia trung
tm v ngoi vi. l trng hp ca H thng Tin t Chu
u, ni cc hnh ng ca Bundesbank gy ra v C
ch T gi ERM nm 1992. Trong h thng t bn ton cu
hu ht cc nc ngoi vi ph thuc vo trung tm v cung
vn. iu hn ch quyn t do hnh ng ca h. H cn
duy tr nim tin ca cc nh u t nc ngoi - hoc khc i
th a ngc v ra. C th l l rng y l iu tt v n buc
cc chnh ph vo k lut th trng. Song k lut th trng,
khi p dng cho mt nc ngoi vi, l hi tai c: N i tng
li sut thi im suy thoi. N tng cng bt cn bng
hn l i trng n. khng phi l ci Keynes k n.

Khng nghi ng g l cc th trng ti chnh m s l nt
c bit rt ng mong mi, nu khng phi l khng th
thiu c, ca mt x hi m ton cu. Nhng cc th trng
ti chnh c th khng cn m tr phi chng ta tm c cch
duy tr s n nh v to ra mt sn chi bng phng hn.
Thiu cc bin php tp th, mi nc phi tm li ch ring
ca mnh, iu n lt n c th dn n p t kim sot
vn. Da trn cc bi hc hc c trong khng hong
1997-1999, cc nc di s thc p chc c kh nng hn
vin dn n kim sot vn hn trc. iu ny c th cho h
mt s khuy kho tm thi, nhng, v lm lung lay lng tin
ca nh u t, n c th lm hi cc nc khc tm cch gi
cho cc th trng ca mnh m. Kim sot vn c coi l
chnh sch n xin lng ging, chnh sch c th ph v h
thng t bn ton cu. ng tic n dc ca chng ta
chng li s vic c th xy ra nh vy cn kit. ng by
gi chng ta trong mt qu trnh lm yu cc nh ch ti
chnh quc t di danh ngha loi b him ho o c.


CHNG 11

Cu trc Chnh tr Ton cu















heo sau khng hong ti chnh ton cu, ngi ta ni
nhiu v cu trc ti chnh ton cu. Hu nh khng c
tho lun no v cu trc chnh tr ton cu. y l mt
s b st k l, cn c vo nn chnh tr quc t y ry xung
t, v cc dn xp c ngh ra gii quyt chng l yu
hn nhiu so vi v i ti chnh.
T
Chng ta khng c mt bin ng chnh tr so snh c
vi khng hong ti chnh ton cu, nhng c qu nhiu
xung t cc b, v do thiu mt c ch ho gii hu hiu mt
s trong chng t ra c sc tn ph gh gm. Nu chng ta
ng ti mt lc a duy nht Chu Phi cc cuc xung t
l v s m. Phi th nhn chng khng gy nguy
him cho h thng t bn ton cu, nhng khng th ni nh
th v cuc chy ua v kh ht nhn gia n v Pakistan
hay nhng cng thng Trung ng v Balkan, khng nhc
ti i Loan. Kip trc ca ch ngha t bn ton cu kt
thc vi Th Chin I. Ti khng mun gi bng ma ca mt
GEORGE SOROS
___________________________________________________

302
cuc chin tranh th gii khc, nhng ti tin rng h thng c
th b ph v bi nhng din bin chnh tr mt cch d dng
ht nh bi s bt n nh ti chnh; rt c th hai th s tng
cng ln nhau to ra bin ng.
Dng nh cc cuc xung t cc b ngy cng tr nn
kh khc phc. Trong thi Chin tranh Lnh chng bao
hm trong mt xung t ln hn y hai siu cng chng li
ln nhau. Mi bn u c gi cho nh mnh trt t v khai
thc cc im yu ca i phng. S dn xp l xa l tng,
v mt s xung t cc b day dt hng nm, nhng t cuc b
b mc v khng cuc no c cho php leo thang thnh
mt cuc chin qui m ton din gia cc siu cng. Ngy
nay chng phi tr thnh cc cuc khng hong n ht c
trc khi chng nhn c s ch , v ngay c khi cng
kh tp hp ch chnh tr gii quyt chng.
Hu ht xung t cc b ny sinh t cc quan h bn trong
mt quc gia c ch quyn: cng thng sc tc, tham nhng,
trn p, sp quyn lc trung ng. Rt cuc chng c th
trn qua bin gii quc gia, song n lc chng c th day
dt di s bo h ca ch quyn dn tc. l l do v sao
nhiu cuc n th pht trin thnh khng hong ht c.
Cc mi quan h quc t thng lin quan n cc mi
quan h gia cc quc gia; ngy nay ci xy ra trong ni b
cc quc gia tr nn quan trng hn, v khng c dn xp hu
hiu no gii quyt cc xung t bn trong. Cc qui tc ch
ng cc quan h quc t p dng cho cc mi quan h gia
cc quc gia. Trong ni b cc quc gia, ch quyn c gi
thit l thng th tr trng hp mt quc gia t b hay u
thc ch quyn ca n theo tho c quc t. Cc dn xp ch
ng quan h gia cc quc gia cn xa mi tho ng, nhng
c thiu st ln hn nhiu i vi tnh hnh trong ni b cc
quc gia. Khng c c ch hu hiu no ngn chn khng
hong tin trin. Bt k s can thip bn ngoi no u to
thnh s can thip vo ch quyn. V ngn nga khng hong
i hi mc can thip bn ngoi no , nhng dn xp
hin hnh l d b khng hong.
Cu trc chnh tr ton cu
__________________________________________________



303
y chng c g mi. Nguyn l rng cc nh nc c ch
quyn phi c php quyt nh h i x vi thn dn ca
mnh ra sao c xc lp trong Hip c Westphalia nm
1648 sau ba mi nm chin tranh tn gio. T cc mi
quan h quc t da trn nguyn l ch quyn quc gia.
Cc nh nc c ch quyn c li ch quc gia ch dn.
Cc li ch quc gia khng nht thit trng vi cc li ch ca
cng dn ca n, v cc quc gia thm ch c l t quan tm
n cng dn ca cc quc gia khc. C vi c ch an ton
c cy vo nhng dn xp ny bo v li ch ca ngi
dn. Lin Hip Quc thng qua Tuyn b Ph qut v
Quyn Con ngi, song khng c c ch thc thi. C mt s
hip c v nh ch quc t, song nh hng ca chng ch
b gn cc lnh vc hp m cc quc gia c ch quyn
u thc cho chng. Cc s kin bn trong cc ng bin gii
quc gia nh th phn ln c min gim st quc t.
D sao, ngi dn sng di cc ch n p cn s bo
v bn ngoi. Cc quc gia chc lm quyn hn trong quan h
vi cng dn ca n so vi trong quan h vi cc quc gia
khc v chng chu t rng buc hn. i vi ngi dn sng
di cc ch p bc, s gip t bn ngoi thng l cu
tinh duy nht. Nhng ngi dn sng ni khc t quan tm
n gip h. Nhn chung, ngi dn sng cc nn dn
ch sn sng bo v quyn t do ring ca h khi n b nguy
him. Nhng khng c s ng h cho x hi m nh mt
nguyn l ph qut. S thiu st ny nghim trng ra sao? N
c th c sa? Chng ta u tin s nghin cu thi
thnh hnh i vi cc quan h quc t v sau n tnh hnh
thc t.


Ch ngha Hin thc a Chnh tr

Cc quan h quc t khng c hiu k. Chng khng c mt
mn khoa hc da vo, mc d c mt hc thuyt gi l
ch ngha hin thc a chnh tr i a v khoa hc. Ht
GEORGE SOROS
___________________________________________________

304

nh l thuyt v cnh tranh hon ho, a chnh tr c gc r
th k mi chn, khi khoa hc c k vng cung cp nhng
gii thch v tin on tt nh. Theo a chnh tr, ng x ca
cc quc gia ch yu c quyt nh bi bn nng thin ph
v a l, chnh tr, v kinh t. Henry Kissinger, tng ca
a chnh tr, cho rng ngun gc ca a chnh tr truy nguyn
thm ch xa hn, n Hng y Richelieu, ngi tuyn b rng
cc quc gia khng c cc nguyn l, ch c cc li ch.
69

Hc thuyt ny c s tng t no vi hc thuyt laissez-
faire: C hai coi t li l c s thc tin duy nht gii thch
hay tin on ng x ca i tng. i vi laissez-faire, i
tng l c nhn ngi tham gia th trng; i vi a chnh
tr, l quc gia. C h gn vi c hai l bin th th tc ca
ch ngha Darwin, theo s sng st ca c th thch hp
nht l qui tc ca t nhin. Mu s chung ca ba hc thuyt
l chng u da trn nguyn l v t li v loi tr tt c cc
cn nhc lun l hay o c. Trong trng hp a chnh tr,
iu ny c ngha l li ch quc gia, ci khng nht thit
trng vi li ch ca nhn dn. tng rng nh nc phi
i din cho cc li ch ca cc cng dn l vt qu khung
dn chiu ca n. C, tt nhin, cc quan im khc v quan
h quc t c tnh n cc cn nhc o c, nhng chng
c coi l mm yu v l tng ch ngha. Cc nh chc
trch ca quc gia thng cm thy h khng th c iu kin
lang thang qu xa ch ngha hin thc a chnh tr trong giao
thip vi cc quc gia khc.
Trin vng ny mang li mt s kt qu l k. Ch ngha
hin thc a chnh tr khng th ng u, th d, vi s
phn i chin tranh Vit Nam ca nhn dn. Gn y hn n
khng th i ph vi s tan r ca cc quc gia nh Lin X
v Nam T. Theo a chnh tr, mt quc gia l mt quc gia
l mt quc gia. Chng ta c dy ngh v chng nh cc
con tt trn mt bn c. Ci xy ra bn trong con tt khng
phi l cng vic ca a chnh tr.

69
Henry Kissinger, Diplomacy (New York: Simon and Schuster, 1995).
Cu trc chnh tr ton cu
__________________________________________________



305
Th v l, l thuyt kinh t c nhc im tng t. a
chnh tr da trn quc gia; kinh t hc da trn c nhn tch
bit, con ngi kinh t - homo economicus. Chng kin trc
no mnh chu c sc nng ca l thuyt c xy
dng trn n. Cc con ngi kinh t c gi thit l c tri
thc hon ho, c v nhu cu ring ca h ln v cc c hi
m ra cho h, v c kh nng a ra cc la chn duy l da
trn thng tin . Chng ta thy rng cc gi thit ny l
phi thc t; chng ta cng thy l thuyt kinh t lch kh
khn bng coi c cc s thch v c hi l cho trc. Nhng
chng ta b b li vi cm tng rng con ngi c t li
ca h ch dn nh cc c nhn c lp. Trn thc t, con
ngi l ng vt x hi: S sng st ca c th thch hp
nht phi ko theo s hp tc cng nh cnh tranh. C mt
thiu st chung trong thuyt th trng chnh thng, ch ngha
hin thc a chnh tr, v ch ngha Darwin thng tc: s b
qua bt k ng c no khc vi t li hp hi.


Khng c Trt t Th gii

Chuyn t l tng sang thc t, hy nhn vo hon cnh thc
t trong cc quan h quc t. Nt tiu biu ca tnh trng hin
thi l n khng th c m t nh mt ch . Khng c
h thng chnh tr tng ng vi h thng ti chnh ton cu;
hn na, khng c s ng thun rng mt h thng chnh tr
ton cu l hoc kh thi hay ng mong mun.
y l mt tnh trng tng i mi. Cho n khi ch
Soviet sp , ta c th ch ra mt ch trong cc quan h
quc t - Chin tranh Lnh - v n c bit n nh: Hai
siu cng i din cho hai hnh thc khc nhau v t chc x
hi b kt trong xung t ch t. Mi bn u mun tiu
dit bn kia, v c hai chun b cho n bng tin hnh chy
ua v kh ht nhn. H qu l, mi bn tr nn mnh
trt s tn ph ln bn kia nu b tn cng. iu ny ngn
chn chin tranh ton b n ra, mc d n khng ngn
GEORGE SOROS
___________________________________________________

306
chn cc cuc giao tranh nh bn l v dng mo kim
u th.
Mt s cn bng quyn lc, nh c th hin bi Chin
tranh Lnh, ni chung c tha nhn nh mt cch duy
tr ho bnh v n nh trn th gii; b quyn ca mt cng
quc quc l mt cch khc; mt t chc quc t c kh
nng ho gii hu hiu c th l cch th ba. Hin ti chng ta
chng c ci no trong s k trn.
Hoa K cn li l siu cng sng st duy nht, nhng n
khng c quan im r rng v vai tr ca n trn th gii.
Trong Chin tranh Lnh, Hoa K c l mt siu cng ln
ngi lnh o ca th gii t do, v hai vai tr cng c ln
nhau. Vi s tan r ca ch Soviet, tnh ng nht d chu
ny cng tan r, nhng ngi ta khng nhn ra n. Hoa K
c th vn l ngi lnh o ca th gii t do, nhng lm
vy n phi hp tc vi cc nc c u c dn ch khc, u
tin gip xy dng nn mng dn ch cc nc nguyn
cng sn, sau cng c cc nh ch quc t cn thit duy
tr mt x hi m ton cu. Hai dp trc y khi Hoa K ni
ln nh ngi lnh o ca th gii t do vo cui Th
Chin I v II n lm chnh xc vic : N bo tr Hi
Quc Lin, ri n Lin Hip Quc. Tuy nhin, c hai n lc
t ra v ch. Trong trng hp th nht, Quc hi t
chi ph chun Hi Quc Lin; trng hp th hai, Chin
tranh Lnh lm cho Lin Hip Quc phn ln v hiu qu.
C hi lm cho Lin Hip Quc cng trng li n
khi Mikhail Gorbachev tr thnh ngi ng u Lin X.
Gorbachev hi vng lm cho Lin Hip Quc (LHQ) hot
ng theo cch m cc nh sng lp ra n d kin bng
cch to dng mt lin minh vi Hoa K. l phn mch lc
nht ca chng trnh ca ng, c gi l novoye myshlenie
(t duy mi), c tho t m cng phu ch bi mt mng ca
b my quan liu Soviet ng h cc ci cch ca ng - B
Ngoi Giao. Cc tng ca ng v ci cch kinh t th t
mch lc hn nhiu; ng k vng bn ng minh sp ti
ca mnh, Hoa K, n gii cu ng.
Cu trc chnh tr ton cu
__________________________________________________



307
Mt trong nhng hnh ng u tin ca Gorbachev l
tr cc khon tin cha ng cho Lin Hip Quc. Ri ng
n trc i Hi ng LHQ say sa yu cu hp tc quc
t. N nhn c s quan tm t i. Hoa K nghi l c th
on v mun kim tra tnh chn tht ca ng. Khi ng tho
mn bi kim tra, bi kim tra mi c ngh ra. Vo lc ng
a ra mi nhng b i hi ng ta, th tnh hnh Lin X
xu i nhiu n mc lnh o phng Ty c th kt lun
rng qu mun dnh cho s tr gip m Gorbachev hi
vng. Mc d vy, c Gorbachev ln ngi k v ng, Boris
Yeltsin, khng a ra bt k kh khn nghim trng no
cho hot ng ng n ca Hi ng Bo an LHQ trong
khong nm hay su nm.
C hi lm cho Hi ng Bo An hot ng theo cch
n c d kin ban u tiu tan mt, u tin bi s c
ng tic Somalia v sau bi xung t Bosnia. Kinh
nghim Somalia xc lp nguyn tc l lnh M s khng phc
v di s ch huy ca LHQ - mc d h khng nm di s
ch huy ca LHQ khi s c xy ra. N cng dy chnh ph
Hoa K rng cng chng c s chu ng rt thp i vi cc
ti xc cht. Tuy nhin cuc khng hong Bosnia c th
c kim ch tt hn nu cc thnh vin thng trc phng
Ty ca Hi ng Bo an thng nht vi nhau. Nhim v
c th giao cho NATO - nh cui cng l th - v thm
kch c th trnh c. Nm 1992 Nga c th khng a ra
phn i no. Nhng, b kinh nghim Somalia lm cho s hi,
Tng thng Clinton khng dng quyn lnh o, v vng
quc Anh, ch tch khi ca Cng ng Chu u, thch a
i qun gn gi ho bnh ti ni khng c ho bnh m
gi. S giao chin v cc hnh ng tn c ko l th cho n
khi cui cng Hoa K ly phng chm mnh m.
Trong hu qu ca xung t Bosnia, Hoa K i n tin
rng chng c g c tin hnh c tr phi n gi vai tr lnh
o. Chu u khng th khin hnh ng ca n li vi nhau,
v tnh c lp ca Lin Hip Quc c xem nh s lng m
vi s lnh o ca Hoa K. Di sc p ca quc hi, Hoa
GEORGE SOROS
___________________________________________________

308
K thm ch khng ng ph ca mnh cho Lin Hip Quc.
Sau sp Rwanda, khng cng iu khi ni rng Lin
Hip Quc ngy nay cn t hiu qu hn thi Chin tranh
Lnh. ng thi, Hoa K khng sn lng lnh o trong
hu ht cc vn quc t, do thiu s ng h trong nc.
Kt qu l, cc vn mng ln cho n khi t im khng
hong khi chng khng cn c th c b qua. Tnh trng
ny r rng l khng tho mn. C nhu cu cp bch cho vic
t duy li v t chc li cc mi quan h quc t.


Tin ti mt X hi M Ton cu

Ti l l rng chng ta khng th c mt nn kinh t ton
cu m khng c x hi ton cu. Nhng lm sao tng v
mt x hi ton cu c th dung ho c vi cc quc gia c
ch quyn? Cc quc gia c nhng li ch nhng khng c
nguyn tc no. Lm sao c th li ch chung ton cu cho
chng chm sc? Ch nu cng dn ca cc quc gia dn ch
s dng nh hng ca mnh ln cc chnh ph v lm cho
chng p ng nhit tnh vi nhu cu ca mt x hi ton cu.
Ti kin ngh rng cc quc gia dn ch trn th gii nn
lp ra mt lin minh vi mc ch l thit lp mt x hi m
ton cu. iu ny s dnh n hai nhim v khc bit nhng
c lin quan: c v s pht trin cc x hi m trn khp th
gii, v xc lp cc qui tc v nh ch no chi phi ng
x ca cc quc gia i vi cng dn ca h v gia h vi
nhau. y l mt d n kh s, v n c th b gt b nh
mt tng khng tng; nhng x hi m tha nhn cc
hn ch do thc t gy ra. Cc gii php hon ho l khng
th t c. Do chng ta phi t tho mn vi ci tt th
nh: nhng dn xp khng hon ho c th c ci thin
bng th v sai. Cc dn xp phi thay i theo thi gian v
a im. Trc ht chng ta phi nh rng cc hnh ng c
ch tt thng c cc h qu xu khng lng trc. iu
ny c bit ng vi nhng can thip bn ngoi. Khi ngi
Cu trc chnh tr ton cu
__________________________________________________



309

ta c p t bin th ca h v chn l cui cng ln nhng
ngi khc n c th dn ti chin tranh tn gio, t tng,
hay chng tc v s khng c kt thc u tranh. l ci
xy ra trong Chin tranh Ba mi Nm. Bng cch t c s
cho cu trc chnh tr quc t trn cc nguyn l x hi m,
mi nguy him ny c th trnh c. X hi m da trn s
tha nhn rng chn l cui cng l ngoi tm vi ca chng
ta. Chng ta phi chp nhn rng ngi dn c cc quan im
v li ch khc nhau v chng ta phi tm cch cho php h
chung sng ho bnh vi nhau.
To ra mt x hi m ton cu s khng th trnh khi dnh
n s can thip bn ngoi no vo cng vic ni b. Suy
ra t c hai nguyn l v tnh c th sai v nguyn l ch
quyn (mt thc t hin nay) rng mc ln nht c th s
can thip phi mang tnh ng thun v xy dng hn l
cng bc. Trng tm phi l phng nga khng hong hn
l can thip trng pht. Vic phng nga khng th bt u
sm, nhng giai on sm th l khng th nhn din ra
cc im rc ri tim nng. Cch tt nht ngn nga cc
cuc khng hong l khuyn khch s pht trin cc x hi
m trn khp th gii. S pht trin phi l v kinh t cng
nh v chnh tr. im c Amartya Sen nu rt r khi ng
nh ngha pht trin nh l quyn t do chnh tr.
70

Ti tin khi nim v x hi m c th cung cp mt s
nguyn tc ch o cai qun cc mi quan h quc t,
nhng p ng cho nng lc khi nim tru tng phi
c bin thnh mt khi nim hot ng. Chun b mt bn
k hoch cho x hi m ton cu s i ngc li cc nguyn l
ca x hi m; n cng s l mt bi tp v tch s. X hi
m khng th c thit k t cc nguyn l hng u: N
phi c to dng bi nhng ngi tin vo n.
X hi m nh mt khi nim hot ng cn phi c
pht trin bi mi x hi v mi thi i cho chnh mnh. Mt

70
Amartya Sen, Development as Freedom (New York: Alfred A. Knof, 1999), bn ting
Vit: Pht trin l Quyn t do (Vin Qun l Kinh t TW- NXB Thng k 2002).
GEORGE SOROS
___________________________________________________

310
x hi m ton cu phi c to ra bi cc x hi m ca th
gii lm vic cng nhau. chnh xc l ci ti xut.
Qu trnh m Karl Popper khuyn ngh l ci bin x hi
(social engineering) dn dn. Ti khng hon ton va lng
vi thut ng, v mt thay i ch mang tnh cch mng,
nhp l qu nhanh cho php chng ta xa hoa vi hnh
ng t t; l v sao cc s kin tut khi vng kim sot.
S sp ca h thng Soviet l gy pht lch s. Nhng
giy pht qua i, v nh ti l l trc, chng ta
b l mt c hi lch s. Quang cnh chnh tr quc t hin
nay yn lng hn nhiu, vi cc vn c th dn dn tr
nn sc si. Bi vy mt cch tip cn dn dn l thch hp.
Cho nn ti s tp trung vo mt trng hp c bit - s tan r
ca Nam T - iu nu ra cc vn i mt vi chng ta
theo cch c bit chua xt. Ti s c xy dng l l bin h
cho x hi m bng i t c bit sang tng qut.


S Tan r ca Nam T

K t ln xut bn ban u ca cun sch ny, khng hong
Kosovo tr nn nguy kch. S can thip ca NATO to thnh
mt tin l quan trng, trong mt lin minh cc quc gia
dn ch can thip vo mt cuc xung t ni b trong
phm vi mt quc gia c ch quyn nhn danh cc nguyn l
ph qut, cho d cc nguyn l khng c xc nh
mt cch thch ng.
S can thip thnh cng, nhng n l st nt, v gy
nn nhiu vn rc ri. Cnh tng cc my bay NATO b
bom t trn cao ht sc gy bi ri, v v nhiu mt
trc tip phn tc dng. N y nhanh s thanh lc sc tc
m n c cho l phi ngn chn; n tm thi lm cm lng
s phn i ni a i vi Slobodan Milosevic; n chia r
th gii hn l thng nht n li ng sau cc nguyn l ph
qut m n vin dn n. Kt qu cui cng lm nh bt
mt s tc ng xu ny, v tht qu cm d qun cc vn
Cu trc chnh tr ton cu
__________________________________________________



311
rc ri v tuyn b thng li. Nhng iu khng c
tnh trng hin thi bin minh.
Nhng hi vng gn vi can thip NATO khng c
tho mn. Milosevic vn nm quyn Nam T. S phc hi
lut v trt t Kosovo chm chp v khng y . Xung
t sc tc ang din ra, do Milosevic c v, trc tip lm li
cho ng ta. Cng thng tng ln gia Serbia v Montenegro.
Tt c cc din tin ny chng t rng cc thnh vin NATO
tht bi tip tc cuc giao chin vi s cam kt xy
dng. Cc thnh vin NATO cn a qu trnh tan r n kt
thc bng cch hi nhp khu vc vo cng ng kinh t v
chnh tr ca Chu u. Nhu cu c cc nh lnh o
chnh tr nhn ra; by gi vn l thc hin. Ti hi vng n
khi cun sch ny c xut bn s c tin b ng k. S
phn ca Nam T trc y v cc nc lng ging ca n
to thnh mt trng hp th thch cho x hi m.


Hy xem li s tan r ca Nam T. Ti c mt s hiu bit
trc tip v ch . Ti c cc Qu ti tr X hi M hot
ng mi nc khu vc Balkan tr Hi Lp v Th Nh K.
Trc khng hong Kosovo chng ti c cc chi nhnh ca
Qu Nam T Kosovo v Montenegro; cc chi nhnh ny by
gi c bin thnh cc qu c lp.
Ti Belgade thng T 1990 v gp th tng Ante
Markovic ng vo ngy ng cng b thnh lp mt ng lin
bang, ng s tranh c mi nc cng ho. Chng ti m
phn v thit lp mt Qu X hi M m chnh ph lin bang
s cung cp vn i ng. Lc Nam T c tnh hnh kinh t
tt hn Ba Lan nhiu. N ci m hn v thnh vng hn
Ba Lan sut thi k cng sn. C hai nc mc cn bnh
siu lm pht, v c hai a ra chng trnh n nh ho do
IMF ti tr - chng trnh c bit n nhiu hn nh v
n ln- vo 1 thng Ging 1990. Nam T c li th v cc
chuyn gia c o to bi cc nh ch ti chnh quc t
Washington, v chng trnh tin tin hn nhiu so vi
GEORGE SOROS
___________________________________________________

312
Ba Lan. Gi thc t rt vo thng T l l do v sao
Ante Markovic chn a ng ca ng ra lc . Ri sau
Milosevic b thm ht ngn sch ln Serbia, lm sp
chng trnh n nh ho v thng cc cuc bu c Serbia.
Ti cng Belgrade thng Su 1991 ngay trc khi
chin s n ra Slovenia v Croatia. Ti n sng vi i
s Hoa K Warren Zimmerman, ngi ni vi ti rng B
trng Ngoi giao James Baker va thm Belgrade v bo cc
nh lnh o qun i Nam T rng Hoa K khng phn i
nu h tuyn b tnh trng khn cp, m bo cc ng bin
gii, v tin hnh bu c lin bang vi s gim st quc t
trong vng su thng. Ti cng gp B trng Ngoi giao
Leko Loncar, ngi ni vi ti rng Cng ng Chu u
ngh mt khon cho vay 3 t ecu, mt s tin khng nh,
nu Nam T vn li vi nhau, nhng ng ta khng hi vng.
Hn na ngn sch lin bang dng chu cp cho qun i,
ch yu di s chi phi ca ngi Serb; hn na ngn sch
lin bang l t thu quan thu c Slovenia. Khng ngc
nhin l qun i lo m bo ngun thu nhp ch yu ca
n v Slovenia khng sn lng cung cp. Khi xung t v
trang xy ra, nc i u tin ca qun i Nam T l c
chim cc c im bin gii Slovenia, nhng nhng ngi
Slovenia quyt tm hn v thng.
Khi lin bang Nam T tan r, ti lp cc qu mi nc
cng ho k tc. Ti c tic mi l lm chm qu trnh vi
hi vng m bo c vn i ng t chnh ph lin bang.
c mt nhm cc nh tr thc cam kt bin i Nam T
thnh mt nn dn ch, nhng ngi tm s ng h ca ti; ti
trao trch nhim cho h iu hnh cc qu. H phn i
nhng xc cm dn tc ch ngha ngy cng tr nn chi phi
khi s tan r ca Nam T tip din v cc hnh ng tn bo
tng ln. H vn ho hc hp tc vi nhau; h thy xung t
khng phi dng ca nhng ngi Serb, Croat, Bosnia, v
Albani m l dng ca x hi m i li x hi ng. iu
ny lm cho h bt ho khng ch vi ch cai tr m, trong
trng hp ca Bosnia, vi x hi ni chung. Qu Croatia
Cu trc chnh tr ton cu
__________________________________________________



313
c nguy c b giam cm trong khu ghetto do n t to ra,
v ti min cng thay ban lnh o cho qu c th
c chp nhn hn i vi mt mng rng hn ca x hi.
Khi khng hong Bosnia n ra v Sarajevo nm di s
bao vy, ti cam kt 50 triu $ cho Cao u Ngi T nn
Lin Hip Quc (UNHCR). l vo thng Mi Hai 1992.
Suy ngh ca ti l bng cch ng h cc t chc t nguyn
i vo nc ti cng c th ko lc lng gn gi ho bnh
LHQ vo bo v h, vic s gip ngn chn cc hnh
ng tn c. y ho ra l mt ng i sai. Tuy nhin, ti
vn gi c mc kim sot no i vi qu biu ca
ti, v tin c tiu c bit kho. Di s lnh o ca mt
nh t chc cu tr ti ba, Fred Cuny, ngi sau b git
Chechnya, mt h thng cung cp nc khc c thit lp,
a in n qua mt ng hm, mt n v sn xut plasma
c lp t bnh vin, phn pht ht ging cho ngi dn
trng rau cc ming t nh hay trn ban cng, v. v. Tuy
vy, ti coi qu ca ti l mt s th nhn tht bi: C th tt
hn nhiu nu khng hong c th c ngn chn v tin
c tiu trong cc nc khng b ph hu.
Ti thm Sarajevo thng Mi Mt 1993, bay trn mt
chic Ilyushin, mt trong nhng my bay ln nht trn th
gii, ch ng gas m Fred Cuny dng m rng h thng
cung cp hi t t nhin. l mt chuyn i kinh hong,
vi phi hnh on Ukraina sit cht hay ni lng cc dy ai
gi cc ng li vi nhau khi my bay nghing sang bn ny
hay bn kia; chng ti ngi trn mt gh bng dc theo cc
ng c th nt chng ti nu dy ai b tut. Sarajevo,
ti c yu cu d khch thnh h thng cung cp nc.
Cany xy dng mt nh my lm sch nc theo modul v
thu ch n sang tng mng. Chng va vn vo bn trong
chic Ilyushin v c th c d ra khi khoang trong vng
tm pht - thi gian bc d c php Sarajevo. Chng
c lp bn trong mt ng hm dc con sng; nc c
ht t sng v c lc sch. Cuny thm ch tm thy mt
b cha khng c dng sn i bn cnh do nn qun
GEORGE SOROS
___________________________________________________

314
ch oHung b li ni c th cha nc v phn phi nh
trng lc. ng tic cc nh chc trch a phng khng
cho php ni nc vo. Chng ti chng bao gi tm ra c
v sao - hoc l v n c th gy tr ngi cho mnh li phn
phi nc hay v chnh ph cn n nhng hnh nh m mu
trn CNN cho thy cnh tng ngi dn b git trong khi ch
ly nc. Ti phi e do s a ra cng khai s phn i
ca mnh trc khi giy php c cp.
Qu X hi M Bosnia v Herzegovina c mt nt
ring bit khi hot ng cu tr nhn o. Mc tiu ca n l
h tr x hi dn s, v n gi khong cch vi cc nh chc
trch. N duy tr tinh thn phn khng ku gi lng tm ca
th gii. N chc chn ku gi lng tm ca ti. Cuc
ving thm ca ti n thun xc nhn ci m ti bit ri
t xa: s cam kt anh dng ca h cho cc gi tr ca x hi
m.
Trn ng quay v ti dng Zagreb v c mt cuc
gp duy nht vi Tng thng Franjo Tudjman. ng ln n ti
ng h nhng k phn bi t nc ca ng v truyn b t
tng mi nguy him c gi l x hi m. Qu tip tc chu
s th ch t pha chnh ph do n ng h cc phng tin
truyn thng i chng c lp. S kim sot cc phng tin
truyn thng i chng l ton din hn Croatia so vi
Nam T, v c t lng nhc hn t Chu u v cc mi lin h
tn gio v lch s. N lm cho qu b c lp v b phi ra mt
cht.
Ti cng dnh lu su vo Macedonia. Hi Lp p t cm
vn ln Macedonia, trong tranh chp v tn, iu ph v
nn kinh t Macedonia mt cch nghim trng. Macedonia
gia t lin v c cung cp du t Hi Lp. u nm 1993,
ti cho Macedonia vay 25 triu $ lm cho n c th mua
du vt qua ma ng. Macedonia l mt x hi a
sc tc vi nhm thiu s Albani ln. N c th tn ti nh
mt nc c lp ch nu n coi mi cng dn ca mnh
ngang nhau, v chnh ph dng nh nhn ra sc thuyt phc
ca l l ny. l l do v sao ti cm thy rt quan trng
Cu trc chnh tr ton cu
__________________________________________________



315
vi v gip h. Chnh ph tr mn vay, nhng v mt
khc n khng hon ton gi li ha. C l n c gng
nhng vp phi nhiu s phn i t gii tr thc Macedonia.
c bit, khng c php dy bng ting Albani trng
i hc. Khi mt trng i hc Albani bt hp php c
dng ln Tetovo, ti khn cu Tng thng Kiro Gligorov
ng phn n vi s khiu khch nhng v ch: Mu chy.
Khi ti cng khai by t s tht vng ca mnh chnh ph coi
ti l persona non grata (ngi khng c chp nhn). i
li ti cng c cm gic th vi chnh ph. Ti au kh
thy o c cng xu i dn dn. Trong nhng ngy u c
lp v trong thi gian cm vn ca Hi Lp, ti cm thy
nhiu tinh thn v vic chung, thm ch ch ngha l tng,
trong chnh ph. Khi Nam T b cm vn tnh hnh thay
i. Bun lu v cc hot ng lu truyn b tham nhng.
c mu toan m st Tng thng Gligorov, trt st mc tiu.
Ti thy rng cc quan chc chnh ph trung thc trc kia
t b cuc chin u v tr nn v s v tham nhng.
Qu ca chng ti Nam T ng l lun lun bt ho
vi ch , nhng n tm c cch bn r mnh trong x
hi dn s. Bn cnh vic n ng h truyn thng i chng
c lp v cc khon tr cp khc lm cho chnh ph phn n,
qu cn tin hnh nhiu hot ng na - c bit v y t cng
cng, gio dc, vn ho, v h tr nhng ngi t nn m
chnh ph khng th cng khai phn i. Ti mt im vic
ng k ca qu b thu hi, nhng n vn tip tc hot ng,
v cui cng vic ng k c phc hi. Sau khi ti thm
qu vo thng Su 1997, ti c Milan Milutinovic, khi l
B trng Ngoi giao, tip. Chng ti, ni theo ngn ng
ngoi giao, c mt cuc tho lun thng thn.
Qu Nam T c cc chi nhnh Vojvodina, Montenegro,
v Kosovo. Chi nhnh Kosovo ng h h thng gio dc song
hnh m dn c Albani thit lp khi b loi b khi h
thng chnh thc. Mc d hu ht s tr gip ca qu l cho
s nghip ca ngi Albani bao gm cc phng tin truyn
thng i chng ting Albani n khng hot ng theo cc
GEORGE SOROS
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316
phng chm sc tc, v khi ti thm Kosovo 1997 ti gp ti
qu nhng ngi t mi thnh phn ca x hi dn s. Thnh
vin ngi Albani ca hi ng qun tr ca qu, Veton
Surroi, v vn l mt ting ni quan trng cho l tr v
s iu . ng ng vai tr then cht trong cu vt Hi
ngh Rambouillet (6 n 23 thng Hai, 1999), xy ra trc s
can thip qun s vo Kosovo, khi tht bi hon ton.
Ti cng phi nhc n s dnh lu ca ti Albania v
Bulgaria. Albania, ti tin hnh ti thit cc trng hc
v mt vt l. y l mt s i trch khi cch tip cn thng
thng ca chng ti, tc l ch hn ch ci xy ra bn
trong cc trng hc, nhng s thc l rt nhiu trng hc
b ph hu khi ch cng sn b lt lm cho iu
l cn thit. Chng ti tm c cch thit lp hot ng
xy dng hiu qu, khng c tham nhng, v ko cc cng
ng tham gia ti thit. Ti bit l chng ti thnh cng khi
mt nh thu xy dng biu tin xy li trng lng ca
ng ta. Sau , khi ch Berisha b lt bng bo ng
nm 1997, nhiu to nh li b ph hu, nhng khng c to
nh no ca chng ti b ng n. My tnh ca chng ti b
cp t kho hng, ch khng phi t cc trng hc. Cc s
kin dy ti rng nhng ngi Albani c cc tiu chun
o c mnh v rng s bc b chnh ph khng c nh
ngang vi thiu o c cng. Nhn tng th, ti c kinh
nghim rt tch cc Albania, v qu c ng h v tn
trng rng ri. Cng ng th Bulgaria.


Ti a nhng chi tit ny ra mt phn xc lp chng
ch tn nhim ca ti v mt phn ni r vin cnh (thin
kin) ca ti. Cc qu ca ti u tranh cho mt x hi m
nhng v ch. Tuy nhin, ti tin rng ng chin u cc trn
nh b thua; ti cng tin rng nu gi nh cc cng quc
phng Ty c cc nguyn l ca x hi m ch dn th
c th thng trn nh. Khng thch hp nu chi tit nhng
tip xc ca ti vi cc nh hoch nh chnh sch phng
Cu trc chnh tr ton cu
__________________________________________________



317
Ty; l ni rng ti thng ph phn cc chnh sch
phng Ty c cng khai ln kn o, v nhng tuyn b cng
khai ca ti gip ti c iu trn ring. Th d, ti c
dm ba cuc tho lun vi Tng th k LHQ khi , Buotros
Boutros-Ghali, v ti l l rng ng ta nn t chc hn l
chp nhn mt s mnh gn gi ho bnh ci khng th thc
hin c nhng t chc l chuyn xa vi nht trong u c
ng. Ti ng h mt phng chm mnh m chng li c
Milosevic v Tudjman, v ti cm thy thc trch nhim
c nhn mnh khi cui cng ti ly mt phng chm mnh
m Kosovo khng phi v ti c tham vn (ti khng
c hi) m bi v ti ng h n.
Ti khng mun nu chi tit cc s kin Nam T, ch nu
vi nhn xt chung. Th nht, cc nn dn ch phng Ty
Chu u v Hoa K - dnh lu su sc. Ti nhc ti cuc
ving thm ca B trng Ngoi giao Baker v s cho mi
khon cho vay 3 t ecu ca Chu u. Ti c th l l rng s
dnh lu l ra phi bt u thm ch sm hn, khi Milosevic
hu b s t tr ca Kosovo v Vojvodina hay khi ng ta lm
tan v chng trnh ci cch kinh t, v n phi da vng
chc hn vo cc nguyn l ca x hi m. S dnh lu quc t
khng th bt u sm, nhng ngay c khi thnh cng
khng c m bo.
Th hai, khng nn dn ch Ty phng no c li ch
quc gia b e do, nhng Chu u v Hoa K c li ch
chung trong ci xy ra Nam T. C l v l , m chnh
sch ca Phng Ty thiu thng nht v s r rng v mc
ch. Hu ht thi gian, mc tiu nhm duy tr hin trng
status quo v trnh xung t v trang. iu ny ng vo
thng Su 1991 khi B trng Ngoi giao James Baker ng
vi vic tuyn b tnh trng khn cp; n ng Bosnia,
ni cc cng quc phng Ty chn can thip nhn o thay
cho can thip v trang theo iu 6 v gn gi ho bnh thay
cho iu 7 v kin to ho bnh trong Hin chng LHQ.
iu ny ng trong khng hong Kosovo, trong Hoa
K khai ph mi i l cho Milosevic. Khi vo ma thu
GEORGE SOROS
___________________________________________________

318
1998 Milosevic tin hnh chin dch chng ni dy qui m
ln chng li Qun i Gii phng Kosovo (KLA), di di
khong 400.000 ngi Albani dn lng sng Kosovo, c s
Hoa K Richard Holbrooke t mt tho thun vi
Milosevic a cc nh quan st khng v trang t T chc
An ninh v Hp tc Chu u (OSCE) vo Kosovo. Cc quan
st vin c rt i v Hi ngh Rambouillet c dn xp ch
sau khi Milosevic ph v tho thun v cho php cc hnh
ng tn bo tip tc trc s hin din ca cc quan st vin.
Nghin cu k cc s kin dn ti n kt lun rng Milosevic
mun b b bom nhm tin hnh s thanh lc sc tc qui
m ln, c chun b k cng, vic c th chun b c s
cho s phn chia de facto - tht s - ca Kosovo.
Ni chung, cc nn dn ch phng Ty tng i
khng nhy cm vi tnh hnh chnh tr ni b cc nc
cng ho khc nhau; h b nh hng hn nhiu bi nhng
cn nhc tn gio, lch s, v dn tc. Th d, nc c
khng khng i cng nhn Crotia v Slovenia nh cc nc
c lp m khng a ra cc iu khon tho ng bo v
nhng ngi Serb thiu s. Php, Hi Lp, v mc t hn
Vng Quc Anh c thin cm vi nhng ngi Serb.
Thnh kin chng nhng ngi Hi gio ph bin Chu
u. Hoa K k kt Hip c Dayton m khng gii quyt cc
vn ang mng m ca Kosovo. Nh lnh o ca nhng
ngi Albani Kosovo, Ibrahim Rugova, tin vo s phn khng
bt bo ng, t s phn ca mnh vo cc nn dn ch Ty
phng; sau hip c Dayton ng bt u mt nh hng, v
KLA ln sn. Khng ngoa ni rng khng hong Kosovo
nm 1999 l h qu trc tip ca Hip c Dayton nm 1995.
Cc nh hoch nh chnh sch Ty phng phi nhn ra
rng xung t Nam T khng ch l gia nhng ngi
Serb, Croat, Bosnia, v Albani m cng l gia x hi ng
v x hi m. S nhn ra ny c th lm cho cc nh hoch
nh chnh sch nhy cm hn vi cc vn nh thiu cc
phng tin truyn thng i chng c lp v cc cuc bu
c gian ln. N c th lm nn lng h khi da vo cc
Cu trc chnh tr ton cu
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319
ch n p ging nh cc ch ca Slobodan Milosevic,
Franjo Tudjman, v mc t hn ca Alija Izetbegovic
Bosnia; h c th khng b qua cc vn Kosovo c
mt thp k.
Th ba, s can thip t bn ngoi r rng l khng thnh
cng. N c nhiu dng, song chng hnh thc no hot ng
c. Bosnia, cng ng quc t can thip trong khun kh
ca LHQ, v kt qu tht tai hi. Hc t bi hc , Kosovo
cc cng quc phng Ty da vo NATO, nhng kt qu
chng tt hn my; cui cng phi cu khn n nh chc
trch LHQ to mt s dn xp. Trc LHQ p t
cm vn kinh t vi cc h qu khng lng trc. Cc nh
doanh nghip m m c th vi phm s trng pht vi s gip
ca cc nh chc trch. iu ny dn n nhng lin minh
ti li gia cc ch cai tr v cc bng nhm mafia Nam
T v mt vi nc lng ging. Cng ng Chu u thm ch
th hnh ng phng nga bng ha cho vay nu Nam T
li vi nhau, nhng v ch. Tm li, chng ci no c kt
qu c. Can thip qun s Kosovo c t c mc tiu
qun s trc mt, song n khng mang li ho bnh.


Cc Bi hc ca Nam T

Cc s kin Nam T ng h l l chung ca ti. Can thip
trng pht c khuynh hng khng hiu qu v n thng
phn tc dng. iu ny ng vi trng pht kinh t, gn gi
ho bnh, v hnh ng qun s. Ngn chn khng hong
khng th bt u sm, v n phi da vo cc nguyn l
ca x hi m. Ngay c ng nh th, khng c m bo no
rng hnh ng phng nga s thnh cng; cho nn chng ta
khng th khng c nhng trng pht. Cc trng pht ny s
c bin minh tt hn v mt o c v chnh tr nu vt
cn tt c cc la chn xy dng.
cc giai on sm, phng nga khng hong l tng i
khng au n v r tin; mun hn, thit hi v chi ph leo
GEORGE SOROS
___________________________________________________

320
thang theo hm s m. Phin l, phng nga khng hong,
du cho bt u sm n u, khng nht thit s thnh cng.
L mt phn ca khi nim v x hi m rng khng phi mi
vn u c mt gii php. Th d, vi thin ch tt nht trn
i, chng c g c th duy tr c hin trng Nam T.
Nu gi nh cc nn dn ch phng Ty phn i vo
nm 1989 khi Slobodan Milosevic hu b t tr ca Kosovo,
c kh nng l Milosevic khng c th c kh nng cng
c quyn lc ca ng ta Serbia, v do c th c mt
qu ho bnh hn sang ch mi. Nhng nu s can thip
tht bi, th hnh ng qun s c th khng th trnh khi.
Mc d th, hnh ng sm c th t tn km hn. Thit hi
c th t hn nhiu nu gi nh NATO can thip khi hi
qun Nam T nm bom Dubrovnik thng Mi Hai 1991.
Mt trong nhng tr ngi chnh cho can thip khng hong
sm l mt t l ri ro-phn thng nghch. Chng ai c
vinh d do gii quyt cc cuc khng hong vn cha n ra;
nu s ngn chn thnh cng, khng khng hong no xy ra
c. Ch c s tht bi mi c ghi nh. Chnh ph hay cc
nh ch no li sn lng chp nhn s nh cc nh vy?
Ti tin tr ngi c th c khc phc vi s gip ca l
l o c m ti xut trc: Khi l vn lm vic
ng, ta phi chun b chin u cc trn thua. Ti mun lm
r im ny bng ng ti mt lnh vc khng hong vn cha
ni ln trong thc chung: Thung lng Ferghana.


Thung lng Ferghana

t ngi thm ch nghe ni v Thung lng Ferghana, ni
Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, v Kyrgyzstan. Cn t ngi hn bit
rng rc ri nghim trng ang mng ln y. Ti c th
cng chng bit n n nu gi nh ti khng c cc qu cc
nc . Uzbekistan l quc gia ln nht v mnh nht trong
khu vc, c ph cho nhiu du v khong sn v phi chu
mt ch p bc. S n p c hng ch yu chng li
Cu trc chnh tr ton cu
__________________________________________________



321
tro lu Hi gio chnh thng, v coi mi biu hin ca Hi
gio nh biu hin ca tro lu chnh thng, ch c rt
nhiu trn p. Kyrgyzstan, nc lng ging, nh hn v
ngho hn nhiu. N c mt tng thng c thin hng dn
ch nhng bt lc. Tajikistan b tn ph bi nhiu nm ni
chin, mi c gii quyt gn y. Cc ng bin gii
trong Thung lng Ferghana l kh kim sot, v bn thn
thung lng li d tip cn t Afganistan. Thung lng suy tn
v kinh t, bun bn ma tu v khng b ng tr. Cc s c v
trang xy ra Kyrgyzstan nhiu hn Uzbekistan chnh xc
v Uzbekistan c on hn. Bu c tng thng c d nh
Kyrgyzstan vo thng Mi 2000, d kin vi phe i lp
ng k. Di p lc t mi pha, chnh quyn ngy cng
phc hi cc bin php trn p, hm do cc phng tin
truyn thng v bt gi cc ng vin tng thng tim nng.
Chng c l do g tin rng cc ng vin s l dn ch
hn cht no so vi ngi ng nhim. Trin vng m m.
S n p v khng b tng cng ln nhau. Chng ta
trong giai on u ca xung t leo thang. kha cnh ny,
tnh hnh gi nh li Nam T nm 1990. Phi lm g? Ti
khng nhn thy mt chin lc o ln xu hng thnh
hnh, ti li vi hai la chn: tip tc lm ci m qu ca
chng ti lm tt nht - h tr gio dc, x hi dn s, v
php tr - hoc t b hon ton n lc. N lc dng nh v
ch, v kha cnh no n thm ch t ra phn tc dng.
Th d, nu chng ti thnh cng trong thc thi php tr
Kyrgyzstan v tng thng tng i kh c ch , th ng ta
c th thua bu c i vi mt nhn vt cng rn hn. Nhng
ti tin chc rng rt ra s l mt sai lm.
Thung lng Ferghana tiu biu cho trng hp ni xng
ng tip tc bt lun kt qu ngn hn l g. Chng ta
ang gieo nhng ht ging ca x hi m, v mt vi trong s
ht s bn r. T l mt mt sp ti lm nn lng, nhng
cc ht ging sng st c th tr nn cc k c gi tr chnh
xc v t n vy s sng st. Ti nh l Hungary, khi ti
mun lp mt trng kinh doanh, cc ng vin tt nht
GEORGE SOROS
___________________________________________________

322
lnh o n nghin cu nc ngoi theo hc bng ca
Qu Ford hai mi lm nm trc.
Kt lun m ti rt ra khng hon ton tho mn, v n
khng cho mt con ng ra khi khng hong hin thi. Bn
thn iu xem ra lm xi mn l l bin h cho phng nga
khng hong. Chng ta nhn din ra mt khng hong
giai on tng i sm, chng ta mun ngn chn n, th m
chng ta khng tm c cch lm iu . Nhng l thn
phn con ngi: Khng phi mi vn u c li gii. Kh
nng rng mt cuc khng hong Thung lng Ferghana l
khng th trnh khi trn thc t lm vng mnh l l ng h
loi cng vic m cc qu ca ti gnh vc. Ti l l rng
phng nga khng hong khng th bt u sm, v rng
n c thc hin n cng, tt nht bng cch t nn mng
cho cc x hi m. Gi nh nu chng ta bit ngn chn
khng hong th no, th n thuc ca ti c th qu hoang
ph; c nh tnh hnh ny, n c th l s la chn sn c tt
nht. V cho d n c hoang ph, chc chn n khng v
dng. C thi k khi c th tm ra mt chin lc ha hn.
Trong cc giai on u ca s sp h thng Soviet, ti
c th hu nh lun lun hnh dung c cc chin lc y
ha hn no , v ti c gng ng h chng, mc d
khng thnh cng. C cc thi k khc khi chng c chin
lc no xem ra hot ng c, v xu hng c nh ri.
S gii tn Nam T l trng hp nh vy; Thung lng
Ferghana c th l trng hp khc na. Trong cc trng
hp ny, chng ta phi dng n n thuc ca Sergei
Kovalev v tip tc chin u cc trn thua. Nghch l thay, n
s m bo cho thng li cui cng bi v nhng ngi sn
sng chin u cc trn thua gi cho ngn la t do khng
ngng chy. X hi tr nn gn hn ti l tng x hi m so
vi n c th nu ngi dn ch theo ui t li ca mnh.
l s bin minh cho lm vic ng bt lun nhng ngi khc
lm g.


Cu trc chnh tr ton cu
__________________________________________________



323
Vin tr Nc ngoi

Khi ti ch trng can thip mang tnh xy dng v mc ch
kin thit cc x hi m, ti ch trng vin tr nc ngoi.
Theo mt ngha, l vic cc qu ca ti lm, v l ci ti
ch trng cho mt lin minh cc x hi m.
Vin tr nc ngoi mang ting xu, v ng th. N l
mt hnh ng khi nghip, v nhiu mt kh hn vic iu
hnh mt doanh nghip v li nhun, th m n li c rt
gn thnh mt bi tp quan liu. Cc b my quan liu hay
quan tm n vic t duy tr hn l n thc hin s mnh ca
mnh. Trch nhim gii trnh l mt nt ct yu ca nn dn
ch, nhng n khuyn khch hnh vi phng ng, on theo, v
buc ti ln nhau. Chng ta bt cc cng chc theo cc tiu
chun cao hn cc nh doanh nghip. Chng ta chu thit hi
trong kinh doanh nhng khng chu trong vin tr nc
ngoi. Chng ngc nhin l nhng ngi chu trch nhim
trnh ri ro ngay c vi ci gi trnh lun c thnh cng.
Trong l l ng h vin tr nc ngoi, ti i ngc dng.
Thuyt th trng chnh thng tm cch gii thot cc hot
ng kinh t khi bt k loi can thip chnh thng no, v
phi tha nhn l n to ra mt s kt qu tuyt vi bng
cch gii phng nng lc sng to ca tr tu con ngi. V
y, ti th p t nh hng nng n ca b my quan liu.
khng phi l ci ti bnh vc. Ti cng nhn cc gi tr
ca mt nn kinh t th trng. Ti tin chng da chnh xc
vo s gii phng cc nng lc sng to, ch khng vo to ra
cn bng. Nhng ng c li nhun l khng duy tr x
hi. Nn kinh t th trng ch l mt phn ca x hi m.
Phi c n lc no c v s pht trin ca cc x hi
m, v n phi c mt thnh phn mang tnh xy dng bi v
nhng trng pht bn thn chng khng th lm c vic;
chng cng chng th c bin minh v mt o c. iu
c ngha rng chng ta phi tin hnh vin tr nc ngoi
vi thc y v s bt hon ho ca n.
GEORGE SOROS
___________________________________________________

324

Ti tin s sng to trong theo ui mc tiu x hi ngang
nh s sng to trong theo ui li nhun l khng vt qu
nng lc tr tu ca con ngi.
Ti c chng minh iu ny trong cc hot ng t thin
ca ring ti. Ti to ra ci ti gi l mt phin bn
fractal
*
ca x hi m, thit lp mt mng li cc qu c
cai qun bi cc hi ng gm nhng ngi dn ca cc nc
m chng phc v. Ti da vo h quyt nh qu nn lm
ci g, v h chu trch nhim v cc hnh ng ca h. Ti
thng ngc nhin bi ci h lm. Mt s chng trnh hay
nht l nhng chng trnh ti chng bao gi hnh dung ra.
Phi tha nhn n l chuyn h ho. Chng ti c mt s
thnh cng ln, mt s kt qu xong xong, v thi thong
nhng tht bi i hi phi thay nhn s.
Ti mun cch tip cn ny c th c lp li mt qui
m ln hn, nhng ti nhn ra rng n khng th c thc
hin. Tht vy, mng li qu ca ring ti t qui m m
n mt mt s tnh uyn chuyn xa kia ca n v bt u
mang tnh cch ca mt b my quan liu. Tuy nhin, ti l
mt tc nhn c lp. Ti c kh nng tha nhn v sa
cc sai lm ca ti; l l do v sao cc n lc ca ti a
phn thnh cng. Cc nh chnh tr v cc cng chc
khng hng s xa x nh vy, v h phi bin minh hnh
ng ca h trong con mt ca cng chng khng thn thin.
iu ny lm cho h khng a ri ro trong cc tnh hung ni
kh to ra cc kt qu tch cc m khng m nhn ri ro.
Vin tr nc ngoi chnh thc c l khng th c hiu qu
nh n lc t thin ca ti (mc d n c th b li bng s
lng ci n thiu v cht lng). Th m, chng ta khng th
lm m khng c n nu chng ta mun xy dng mt x hi
m ton cu. Cng l l p dng cho cc hnh thc can
thip chnh thc khc: S thc rng n khng hiu qu khng
c ngha rng n khng cn thit; n c ngha l chng ta phi

*
fractal: cu trc hnh hc t lp li mi qui m to ra cc hnh th khng u khng
th to ra bi hnh hc c in. Cc fractal c s dng rng ri m phng bng my
tnh cc hin tng t nhin, mt khi nim quen thuc ca cc h thng c phc tp cao.
Cu trc chnh tr ton cu
__________________________________________________



325
c lm cho n hiu qu hn. Cc khuyn khch da vo qui
tc hp hn vi cc chng trnh do chnh ph qun l. l
l do v sao cu trc chnh tr v ti chnh ton cu tr nn
quan trng n vy. Nhng ngay c trong cc chng trnh
c qun l phi c th gii phng nng lc sng to ca
nhng ngi quan tm - chng c l do v sao tinh thn kinh
doanh li phi hn ch theo ui li nhun.


Hip c n nh cho ng Nam u

iu ny ko chng ta li vng Balkan. Ti ni v s tan
r ca Nam T nh mt tnh hung v vng ni chng g c
kt qu c. Sau can thip ca NATO, tnh hnh thay i.
Mt c hi ny sinh vch ra mt kt qu tch cc, v
chng ta bt buc phi nm ly. Ti khng phi l ngi duy
nht bng hong su sc bi cc vn o c do vic nm
bom ca NATO gy ra. Cm thy rng ri rng s dnh lu
ca chu u Balkan l qu rt r v mang tnh phn ng
li. Lin hip chu u cn pht trin mt chnh sch tch cc,
nga trc i vi khu vc, ci s ngn nga khng hong
hn l phn ng li vi chng. Vn c Janvier Solana,
tng th k NATO lc , nu ra ln u tin vi ti, trc khi
NATO can thip. Mng li qu ca ti bt u thc hin mt
chng trnh ton din cho khu vc, song Trung tm Nghin
cu Chnh sch chu u (CEPS), mt think-tank Brussels,
nhng ngi c Romano Prodi, ch tch c bu ca U
ban chu u, hu thun, i trc chng ti. Thay cho pht
minh li chic bnh xe, chng ti chp nhn k hoch
nh c s cho t duy ca mnh. Chng ti t chc mt
cuc hi tho ca hai mi lm vin chnh sch t khu vc
Ljubljana t 18 n 20 thng By 1999, v a ra mt tuyn
b ci l s tho t m ca kin ngh CEPS.
tng then cht l ko cc nc trong khu vc li gn
nhau hn v ko h li gn chu u hn. Lin hip chu u
c th hot ng nh mt ci nam chm v nhn dn trong
GEORGE SOROS
___________________________________________________

326
khu vc c ht vo n. p v cc ro cn thu quan ngn
cch cc nc vi nhau v vi Lin hip chu u s loi b
mt ngun ch yu ca tham nhng v can thip chnh tr.
Cc nc ng Nam u s nhn c h tr ngn sch, c
th lm cho h c kh nng s dng ng euro nh ng tin
ca mnh. S h tr ngn sch s c cc iu kin chnh tr to
nn mng cho x hi m. Vin tr c phn pht trn c s
khu vc hn l c s song phng. Cc nc tham gia s
buc phi cnh tranh v ti tr u t v tr gip k thut thay
cho vic c kh nng kim sot lung tin v khai thc n v
li ch c nhn v chnh tr.
y l mt k hoch ton din c th trnh lp li cc sai
lm xy ra Bosnia. Ti thit Bosnia tht bi v hai l do
chnh: lnh th qu nh, v cc nh chnh tr th bn tay
nh bn ca h vo mi ming bnh. Cch tip cn khu vc
s loi b c hai nhc im. Mt th trng chung v mt
ng tin chung, tr vo kt cu h tng ca nn kinh t th
trng, s cho php pht trin kinh t. Cn rt nhiu vic phi
lm v mt x hi v chnh tr v ho gii vi nhng ti li
v thng tn ca qu kh, nhng con ng n mt tng
lai tt p hn c vch ra r rng.
Khng kh to s ng h a phng cho k hoch
ny, v chu u rt hp dn vi khu vc. Mng li qu ca
ti huy ng x hi dn s hu thun n. Cc chnh ph khc
nhau (vi ngoi tr hin nhin ca Milosevic) hm h hp
tc. Cng c nhiu ng h trong ni b Lin hip chu u.
Ngoi Romano Prodi ra, cc quan chc chnh ph c, ,
Anh, v cc nc khc pht biu cng theo ng hng
ny. Chnh ph Hoa K cng ng h, c bit bi v chi ph
ch yu do Lin Hip chu u gnh chu.
Mc d k hoch gi nh li k hoch Marshall, chi ph s
kh khim tn v khu vc l nh xu v mt kinh t, nh hn
c H Lan. Tuy nhin, tin l mt vn . Cc nc thnh
vin phn i mnh m vic tng ngn sch ca Lin hip
chu u; h mun duy tr kim sot ngn qu ca h bng
cch i qua cc hi ngh ti tr. iu ny ph hoi mt trong
Cu trc chnh tr ton cu
__________________________________________________



327
cc tng chnh ca k hoch: Cc nc trong khu vc phi
cnh tranh v tr gip, hn l cc nc ti tr cnh tranh nhau
v cho php nhng k gc cng iu ngn qu cho cc mc
ch ring ca h.
Vn khc l t chc. Trong chuyn nim thnh thc t,
cc b trng ngoi giao ca cc nc Lin hip chu u
ngh ra Hip c n nh, chng l g khc m l mt khung
kh rng i nhi ni dung vo; cc b trng ti chnh
khng thch khung kh ny v t chi cp ngn qu. Cc nh
quan liu ca Lin hip chu u cng chng thch n. H
quen vi cc tho thun song phng, gia chnh ph v
chnh ph; con ng a thch ca h l k kt ci gi l cc
Tho c n nh v Lin kt vi tng chnh ph. Kt qu l,
cch tip cn khu vc, khng phi chnh ph, c th mt i.
Khi c cc thc th quan liu khc nhau ko theo cc
hng khc nhau, gii php thng l to ra mt thc th mi
iu phi chng. Kt qu thun l s sinh si ny n cc t
chc. l ci xy ra Kosovo. Quyn lc c chia gia
qun i do NATO dn u (KFOR) v nh chc trch dn s
do LHQ dn u (UNMIK). Nh chc trch dn s li c bn
tr ct: UNHCR cho cng vic nhn o; LHQ cho chnh
quyn dn s lm thi; OSCE cho xy dng cc nh ch
chnh tr; v Lin hip chu u cho ti thit kinh t. Lm cho
tnh hnh ti hn, tng hnh dinh LHQ New York mun
thc thi kim sot chi tit vi UNMIK.
Kt qu l tai hi. Su thng sau gii quyt khng hong
Kosovo, trt t khng c vn hi v ngi dn khng th
cm thy an ton. Cc i qun KFOR thnh cng trong
bo v bn thn mnh, ch khng bo v c dn c dn s.
LHQ khng c kh nng a ra mt lc lng cng an
tho ng. Tnh hnh c ci thin t khi , nhng s
thit hi khng th c tho g. Dn c ngi Serb phi trn
trnh trong cc vng b bao quanh, nhng ngi di gan b xua
ui, v dn c Albani sng trong s hi.
Thiu ngn qu v s ln ln ca cc nh chc trch lm
chnh quyn LHQ tht bi mi bc. N khng th tr
GEORGE SOROS
___________________________________________________

328
lng cho gio vin v cc vin chc dn s khc, phc hi
cc dch v cng thit yu, thit lp c s s ng cho h
thng t php, hoc thm ch cung cp cc ti liu ng k dn
s. Nhm tng ngun thu, n a ra thu quan i vi hng
ho n t Macedonia - mt bc tht li to ra s chm tr
mo m v tham nhng trng trn v mu thun trc tip vi
mc tiu lm gim tm quan trng ca cc ng bin gii.
Hu qu ca khng hong Kosovo tit l mt s khc
bit kinh khng gia cc ngun lc c th c huy ng cho
hnh ng qun s v ngun lc sn c cho cc mc ch xy
dng. Trong trng hp Hoa K, ngn sch quc phng l 260
t $, vin tr nc ngoi 13 t $. NATO chi 2 n 4 t $ cho
nm bom Nam T, nhng cc nc NATO gp kh khn tm
ra 50 triu $ gip Montenegro tin hnh cc ci cch kinh
t. Tuy nhin, nu ch Djukanovic Montenegro c th
duy tr n nh kinh t cn ng dinar ca Nam T mt gi
tr, th ch Milosevic chc chn b bt n nh hn l do
mi cuc nm bom. Cc kh khn v cam kt xy dng b
trm trng thm bi s chm tr v huy ng ngun lc.
S khc bit gia nh v thc t l rng to ra tnh
hung xa cn bng. N s c gii quyt ra sao? Phn nhiu
ph thuc vo s cn i khng ch s phn ca Nam T
trc y m c tng lai ca Lin hip chu u v tnh hiu
lc ca khi nim v x hi m. Vng Balkan khng phi l
lnh vc vn duy nht trn th gii c qu nhiu lit
k: Indonesia (c th l Nam T rt r rng), Chechnya,
Thung lng Ferghana, Congo, Angola, Kashmir, i Loan, v
v. v. Tuy nhin, s phn ca Balkan t ra mt thch thc trc
tip cho NATO. Nu chng ta khng mun cam kt mt cch
xy dng, th chng ta khng c quyn g can thip trng
pht; v nu chng ta khng sn lng can thip vo cng vic
ni b ca mt quc gia c ch quyn nhng p bc, th
chng ta khng th hi vng v mt x hi m.


Cu trc chnh tr ton cu
__________________________________________________



329
C nhng giy pht no khi lch s l ng hn lc
khc. Chng ta khng li dng c giy pht nh vy
Lin X nm 1989; chng ta ang giy pht nh vy
Balkan vo u th k mi. Chng ta chng c th lm c
my Chechnya: Chng ta cng phn i, chng ta cng nui
dng tm trng dn tc ch ngha cay ng Nga. Nhng
hon ton trong nng lc ca chng ta lm thay i din
tin ca cc s kin tr nn tt hn Balkan.
Ti rt hi vng rng tng v x hi m s qua c th
thch ln ny. C nhiu nhn t ng h n. Ci g ging
mt k hoch Marshall cho Balkan ang c tho lun, v
n c s ng h ca nhng ngi c v tr c trch nhim:
iu ny chng t chng ta c tin b. Ti khng cm thy c
n nh ti thy sau sp ca Lin X. Tuy nhin, s
ng h cng khai ang yu i. Khi NATO bt u nm bom
Nam T, Kosovo nm trung tm ch ca th gii; by gi
n b cc cuc khng hong khc th ch. Trch nhim ca
cc hnh ng ca chng ta vn cn . Cc chnh ph dn
ch p li ch ca nhn dn; tr phi nhn dn cam kt cho
cc nguyn l ca x hi m chng ta khng th k vng x
hi m thng th. Chng ta phi theo ui n cng v chnh
chng ta.



CHNG 12

Lin minh X hi M















T
in t ci c th sang ci chung, by gi ti mun to
dng s bin h cho mt x hi m ton cu. Ti
kin ngh mt lin minh ca cc nc dn ch vi mc
tiu kp: c v s pht trin ca x hi m trn khp th gii,
v thit lp mt s qui tc nn tng chi phi hnh vi ca
cc quc gia i vi cng dn ca chng v gia chng vi
nhau. Lin minh X hi M s phi c cc nn dn ch
pht trin lnh o; cho nn ti s bt u bng kho st tnh
hnh hin ti Hoa K v Lin hip chu u - tho lun
cc vn ca Nht bn s a chng ta i qu xa. Lin minh
s c mt thnh phn qun s cng nh thnh phn pht trin;
cho nn ti s kho st NATO trc khi tho lun bn thn
Lin minh. Lin minh s c kh nng hot ng trong hoc
ngoi khun kh LHQ; cho nn ti s kho st cc trin vng
ci cch LHQ trc khi ti a ra l l cui cng ng h vic
thnh lp Lin minh.
Lin minh x hi m
__________________________________________________



331


Hoa K

Hoa K l siu cng duy nht cn li, v tnh u vit qun s
ca n ln hn bao gi ht. N c th v th to ra mt
x hi m, nu gi nh n c mt tm nhn r rng v n nn
nh th no. ng tic Hoa K khng c ci nhn r rng v
vai tr ca n trn th gii, hoc, chnh xc hn, cc quan
im ca n l khng nht qun v ni ti. Hoa K ang b
mt khng hong v bn sc m thm ch n khng nhn ra.
lun c hai ch chnh trong chnh sch i ngoi M:
ch ngha hin thc a chnh tr, v ci c th gi l ch
ngha l tng x hi m. Hoa K l ngoi l gia cc Cng
Quc ca lch s v cam kt ca n cho cc nguyn l ph
qut no , c pht biu chi li trong Tuyn ngn c
lp v c ti khng nh trong Hin chng i Ty Dng
(c phn nh trong Li ni u ca Hin chng LHQ).
Ngay c Henry Kissinger cng tha nhn ci ng gi l ch
ngha ngoi l M: American exceptionalism.
71

Hai xu hng thng bt ho vi nhau. C th ni
Theodore Roosevelt dng cch tip cn a chnh tr, cn
Woodrow Wilson dng tm nhn x hi m. Cn i li, ch
ngha l tng hay thua cc nhm dn tc, ch nh, v quyn
li khc, song cc chnh sch phi c din t bng ngn t
o c nhm tho mn cng lun. Kt qu thun l mt yu
t o c gi trong chnh sch i ngoi ca Hoa K.
Trong Chin tranh Lnh Hoa K hng mt cuc i tt
p nht c th trn trn gian: N c th l c siu cng
ln ngi lnh o th gii t do. Chnh sch i ngoi M
cng c li ca s ng h ca hai ng. S hi ho ny
b Chin tranh Vit Nam ph v khi chnh sch i ngoi v
chnh tr i ni tr nn mu thun trc tip vi nhau. S
phn i trong nc cui cng lm cho khng th theo

71
Henry Kissinger, Diplomacy (New York: Simon and Schuster, 1995).
GEORGE SOROS
___________________________________________________

332
ui Chin tranh Vit Nam. Kinh nghim li cc vt
thng hn su v nhng k c chua xt.
Chin tranh Lnh kt thc vi s sp ni b ca h
thng Soviet v s n tung ch Soviet. iu ny c xem
l mt chin thng ln cho Hoa K. Nhng bn cht ca chin
thng cha bao gi c hiu ng v hai vai tr siu cng
v lnh o th gii t do - b ln ln. Cng chng r l th
gii t do c ngha l g: ch ngha t bn hay x hi m. Phi
chng s sp l do s theo ui hung hng Sng kin
Phng th Chin lc (ci gi l s Chin tranh cc V
sao), do tnh u vit ca ch ngha t bn, hay do s khao
kht t do trong ni b ch Soviet gy ra? Phn ng vi s
sp cng b ln ln ngang vy.
Chnh sch i ngoi ca Hoa K vn b ln ln sut t .
Khng nghi ng g chng ta thch cn li l siu cng duy
nht. Song chng ta cng mun l ngi lnh o th gii t
do, nh trong Chin tranh Lnh, v l ni s ln ln ln
vo bc tranh. Trong Chin tranh Lnh chnh s tn ti ca
th gii b e do v tm s bo v ca mt siu cng.
Cc nn dn ch phng Ty tp hp trong NATO, di s
chi phi ca Hoa K. Song Chin tranh Lnh qua, v mi
e do c loi b. Cc nc khc chng cn cng l do
chu qui phc ch ca mt siu cng. Cho nn vn l
ngi lnh o th gii t do chng ta phi thay i ng x
ca mnh. Chng ta phi lnh o bng xy dng mt hi i
tc (partnership) chn tht v chu theo cc qui tc m chng
ta tm cch p dng cho nhng ngi khc.
Chng ta chn con ng khc. Chng ta cm thy a
v siu cng phi ban cho chng ta cc c quyn c bit,
v khi thuc v cc nh ch quc t no th chng ta c
quyn chi phi chng. Chng ta hm h m rng NATO;
chng ta thuc v T chc Thng mi Th gii (WTO), Qu
Tin t Quc t (IMF), v Ngn hng Th gii (WB), nhng
Lin minh x hi m
__________________________________________________



333

ch v chng ta c th chi phi chng.
72
Chng ta v c
nh mnh LHQ. V di nh hng ca cc nh lnh o
bo th theo ng li cng rn nh Ngh s Jesse Helms
chng ta tuyt i phn i mi s vi phm ch quyn ca
chng ta. Tuy nhin, chng ta li mun vi phm ch quyn
ca cc nc khc nhn danh nhn quyn v dn ch. Chng
ta khng chu c cc ti xc cht, th m chng ta p t
trng pht thng mi v th bom t trn cao bo v cc
nguyn l ca chng ta. Cc nguyn l ca chng ta c cho
l c tnh hp l ph qut, tuy th, chng ta khng khng phn
x chng phi c p dng ra sao v khi no. C mt tiu
chun kp hot ng, ci c th xc phm phn cn li ca
nhn loi, v nhng ngi M thm ch khng thc c v
n.
Thi ca chng ta c th c bin minh trn c s tnh
u vit qun s: Hoa K l siu cng duy nht v v vy c
th lm vng lm tng. Song iu ny khng th dung ho
vi i hi ca chng ta l ngi lnh o th gii t do.
l ch v th ca chng ta tr nn ni ti khng nht qun.
V trong khi chng ta t cho l mnh ng v pha mnh,
nhng ngi khc thy ch yu l s ngo mn v quyn lc.
Hoa K c s vt tri v qun s, nhng n li khng sn
lng hnh ng nh cnh st duy nht ca th gii. Nh th l
tt hn, v Hoa K khng nhn c li ch t h thng t
bn ton cu bin minh cho nhng hi sinh m s duy tr
ho bnh mt mnh c th gy ra. Chi phi th gii cng
chng d dung ho vi x hi m.
Nhng th gii ng cn phi c cc qui tc v tiu chun
ng x v cc phng tin thc thi chng. Thiu chng, th
k mnh s khng ch k yu, c v mt quc t v ni b.
Cc qui tc ng x c th c thit lp ch qua tho thun
quc t. Nu chng c mt siu cng n phng p t
th s l mt v d v k mnh khng ch ngi yu. l ni

72
So vi IMF, Ngn hng Th gii c lp hn vi nh hng ca Hoa K; ngay c ng nh
th, ph tng gim c cao cp v kinh t gia trng trc tnh ca n, Joe Stiglitz, thy
ph hp l xin t chc khi cc quan im ca ng chc tc Hoa K.
GEORGE SOROS
___________________________________________________

334

m vic l mt siu cng v i hi lm lnh o th gii t
do tr nn mu thun nhau.


C th gy sc khi ni rng chnh Hoa K tr thnh cn
tr ln nht thit lp php tr trong cc quan h quc t. C
cc ch p bc duy tr km kp cht i vi thn dn ca
mnh, nhng phng chiu quyn lc ca h ra nc ngoi h
thc su sc rng h c th nh thc ngi khng l ang
ng. Hoa K c th l bt k th g, nhng khng p bc
trong nc, th m n ph trng quyn lc ca n trn
phng din quc t hn bt k nc no khc. N i khi
hnh ng nh mt k xm lc khi n khng thy mi nguy
him ca ti xc cht th d, nm bom mt nh my dc
Sudan. Thm ch nt ni bt hn, n mang tnh xm lc
trong t chi hp tc. N t chi tr ph ca mnh cho LHQ;
n do d b sung cho IMF trong thi gian khng hong ti
chnh ton cu; n n phng p t s trng pht ngay tc
khc hay, chnh xc hn, do s xi gic ca cc c tri on
trong nc. Hoa K l mt trong vn vn by nc b phiu
chng vic thnh lp To Hnh s Quc t (ICC). Cc nc
ngoan c khc l Trung Quc, Irc, Israel, Libya, Qatar, v
Yemen. Lu nm gc, phn i vic nhn vin qun s Hoa
K phi chu di quyn phn x php l quc t, i xa n
mc ch th cho cc tu vin qun s cc i s qun M
trn khp th gii i tranh th cc nh lnh o qun s ca
cc chnh ph s ti i vn ng hnh lang chng li To
Hnh s Quc t. y l mt chin thut c bit ng ng
cc nc ni quyn lc dn s i vi cc lc lng v trang
cha c xc lp vng chc.
Hoa K ch t c l l c v hp l chng li ICC, c th
l ICC c th khng cung cp cng s bo m cho cc cng
dn M nh Hin php Hoa K.
73
Nhng chng c bin minh
no cho s tht bi ca Quc hi ph chun cc hip c

73
Ti khng tn thnh l l ny v vn khng ny sinh chng no mt to n Hoa K sn
lng xt x, nh th d, v tn st M Lai.
Lin minh x hi m
__________________________________________________



335
quc t khng ai bn ci nh Lut v Qui c Bin v Qui
c v a dng Sinh hc. Hoa K l mt trong chn quc gia
cha chu ph chun Qui c sau cng vi Afganistan,
Kwait, Liberia, Lybia, Malta, Thi Lan, Tuvalu, v Nam T -
mt ton bu bn khng tht xut sc lm.
Khng nhn c khi ni rng Hoa K phi hp tc vi
nhng ngi khc. Nhng ngi c ch ngha hin thc a
chnh tr hay thuyt th trng chnh thng hay ch ngha
Darwin thng tc ch dn, nhng ngi nh ngang hng s
sng st ca k thch hp nht vi sc mnh kinh t v qun
s, c th khng thy bt k gii hn no cho ch quyn ca
n. Ch nu chng ta mun sng trong mt x hi m th mi
suy ra rng chng ta phi t ch quyn ca chng ta di cc
qui tc v cc tiu chun ng x c hiu lc ph qut. Nh ti
au n ch ra, dnh n s la chn tht s: Khng nhn
thc y cc h lu, Hoa K chn hnh s quyn lc ca
mnh lm hi cho hp tc quc t.
Hoa K c th ly li a v lnh o th gii t do bng lp
mt lin minh ca cc quc gia c kin ging nhau ht lng
thc y cc nguyn l ca x hi m v mt quc t v ni b
ring tng nc. Nhng iu ny i hi s thay i trit
v thi - t ch ngha n phng hng hch sang mt
cch tip cn hp tc hn. Mt s thay i nh th l c th?
Ti tin l c. Hoa K duy tr mt s cam kt t lu i
vi cc l tng ca x hi m, khi u bng Tuyn ngn
c lp. Theo cc cuc thm d d lun, Lin Hip Quc, bt
chp s t lit hin thi, vn c cng chng a chung hn
Quc hi hay tng thng. Tt c ci cn phi lm l nm li
s ng h tim tng ny cho s hp tc quc t.
Trc cc cuc bu c M nm 2000 mt a s bo th
Quc hi kin quyt chng li hp tc quc t. Lp trng
ca n khng nht thit i din cho cng lun. Mt lin minh
ry r thnh hnh gia nhng ngi theo thuyt th trng
chnh thng v cc mn khc nhau ca t tng ch quyn
quc gia tri t ch ngha bit lp ca nhng ngi tn gio
chnh thng, n cch tip cn M -trc ht ca cc nghip
GEORGE SOROS
___________________________________________________

336
on, v n ch ngha n phng ca Jesse Helms. V mc
d chng thng nht trong s phn i ca chng vi cc nh
ch a phng, chng c cc mc tiu kh khc nhau trong
u. Nhng ngi theo thuyt th trng chnh thng chng
can thip ca chnh ph vo nn kinh t; nhng ngi sng
o chnh thng phn i cc tiu chun t do, nh quyn ph
thai, do nh nc p t. Nhng ngi theo thuyt th trng
chnh thng chng hp tc quc t v cng l do m h khng
thch chnh ph ln: H mun cho kinh doanh bn tay t do.
Nhng ngi theo ch ngha bit lp, thnh vin nghip on,
v theo tn gio chnh thng phn i n v l do ngc li:
H bc bi v mi e do m cc th trng ton cu nu ra
i vi cc gi tr v li ch ca h. Tht ht sc ngc nhin l
lm sao cc nhm khc hn nhau ny li c th dung ho
nhng khc bit ca h bng cch tp trung vo mt k th
chung, c th, l nh chc trch chnh ph v quc t. Ti cho
rng h s thy s thng nht ny ngy cng kh duy tr khi
h tin gn hn n vic t c cc mc tiu ca h.
S la chn ct yu i vi Hoa K l gia cch tip cn
n phng v a phng. Cch trc dn n ti lp mt cn
bng quyn lc v trin vng i u v trang gia cc khi
chng i nhau; cch tip cn sau dn n mt x hi m.
Khng c kh nng l s la chn s c trnh by cho cc
c tri M mt cch thng thn nh vy trong bu c thng 11-
2000 ch ngha a phng l mt t qu di l mt khu
hiu bu c. Albert Gore r rng c thin cm hn vi
tng so vi George W. Bush, song chc ng ta thy qu ri
ro a n ra nh mt vn bu c. Tuy nhin, chnh sch
i ngoi chc s hin ra ln hn trong bu c nm 2000 so
vi nm 1992 khi Bill Clinton ch khng nhn mnh ch
, v cm gic thnh hnh v thnh vng kinh t c th d
chuyn thnh thin cm ln hn vi hp tc quc t.
Sau bu c c th c s mt s ti sp xp quang cnh
chnh tr trong nc, vi nhng ngi theo ch ngha quc t
thuc cc mu sc khc nhau cng ng h mt x hi m ton
cu. N c th xy ra trn c s hai ng, v c mt s truyn
Lin minh x hi m
__________________________________________________



337
thng trong ni b c hai ng c th c phc hi. Trong
ng Dn ch, l truyn thng t do, Chnh sch Kinh t
X hi mi; trong ng Cng ho, l truyn thng quc t
ch ngha, th trng t do. Tt c ci cn cho nhng ngi
ng h ton cu ho thuc ng Cng ho l nhn ra x hi
m nh mt mc tiu ng mong mun. Nh s tn thnh
mt C quan Pht trin Th gii ca Bo co Meltzer t ra,
rng n khng kh tin nh n c v.
Thng cn n mt khng hong thc y mt s thay
i c ngha v chiu hng. Ta c th hi vng rng cc
cuc khng hong Kosovo, ng Timor v chu Phi
sc tp trung tr tu. Nu chng ta phi i mt cuc khng
hong c nh hng xu n v th ca Hoa K trn th gii,
th c hi cho M dn loi ngi n mt x hi m ton cu
c th mt i. Cho nn tht cp bch thit lp x hi m
nh mt mc tiu chnh sch ca Hoa K, trong khi Hoa K
vn duy tr a v siu cng khng b tranh ci ca n.


Lin hip chu u

Trong to ra Lin hip chu u, chng ta chng kin mt
th nghim khng l v ci m Karl Popper gi l ci bin
x hi t t: piecemeal social engineering. Xng ng
khai ph s pht trin ny cn thn hn v n a ra vn
ct yu ca thi i chng ta: lm sao khc phc c nhng
cn tr do quyn t ch quc gia gy ra i vi theo ui li
ch chung. Trong sng to ra Lin hip chu u, khng phi
i mt trc tip vi vn ; gi nh nu phi, qu trnh
chng th i xa nh n i. ng hn n c tip cn mt
cch gin tip, bng nhn din ra mt mc tiu c th v thu
thp s ng h cho n. N khi u vi Cng ng Than
v Thp, v n i xa n tn ng tin chung. Mi bc v
pha trc to ra mt loi thiu cn bng no c th c
chnh sa ch bng i mt bc na v pha trc.
GEORGE SOROS
___________________________________________________

338

Chng g c th thch hp hn vi mt x hi m. Tuy
nhin, qu trnh y bt trc, v tht kh ni n s tin trin
thm bao nhiu. Mi bc u b khng c, ch yu v kh
nng l n s dn n cc bc thm theo cng hng. Nhng
ni lo s ny rt c cn c. Vic to ra mt ng tin chung,
th d, hn c th t ra yu nu khng c mt chnh sch ti
kho chung. Liu s c kh nng thu c s ng h chnh tr
cho a ra mt chnh sch ti kho chung hay khng cn l
mt cu hi b ng.
Ton b qu trnh vp phi nhng kh khn. N c gii
u t chnh tr pht ng v ang mt s ng h ca qun
chng. tng v mt chu u thng nht v cng hp
dn, c bit khi m k c v Chin tranh Th gii II cn cha
phai m v chu u b phi ra cho mi e do Soviet. Thc t
ca Lin hip chu u (EU), tuy vy, t quyn r hn nhiu.
V mt chnh tr n vn ch l mt hip hi ca cc quc gia
u thc quyn t ch no cho mt Lin hip ln hn.
Trong lnh vc kinh t, ni s u thc xy ra, th trng
duy nht hot ng c bit tt; nhng trong lnh vc chnh tr
hu nh khng c s u thc no, v kt qu lm tht vng.
Mi hip hi nh vy ca cc quc gia u chu ci c gi
l thiu ht dn ch: democratic deficit.
74
Li ch quc gia
khng nht thit trng vi li ch ca ngi dn ca quc gia
, nhng trong mt nh nc dn ch nhn dn c th thc
hin kim sot ng x ca chnh ph thng qua nhng ngi
i din c bu ca h; trong mt hip hi cc quc gia,
thiu s kim sot v quyn quyt nh c trao cho cc
chnh ph, ch khng phi nhn dn.
Chnh quyn Lin hip chu u ang gia mt cuc
khng hong su sc. C quan hnh chnh trung ng, U ban
chu u, di quyn ca Hi ng chu u, bao gm chnh
ph ca cc nc thnh vin. Hi ng c hng dn nhiu
bi cc li ch quc gia hn l bi li ch chung. Cho nn
ngay c cc quyt nh t nht cng mang c tnh ca cc

74
William Maynes, Americas Fading Commitments, World Policy Journal (Summer
1999).
Lin minh x hi m
__________________________________________________



339
hip c quc t - kh t, thm ch kh hn sa i. Cc
thnh vin ca U ban c ch nh trn c s quota quc
gia, v hot ng ca U ban mc mi li ca mt b my
quan liu phc v khng phi mt ng ch m l mi lm
ng. Cc quan chc hay bo v mnh chng li cc ng ch
chnh tr bng cch trnh cc quyt nh m h c th b
li. Khi h c trch nhim khng phi vi mt m vi mi
lm ch nhn, tc ng lm t lit; s thiu ht dn ch c
tng cng bi s thiu ht v nng lc quyt nh. Hu nh
khng th tin c, mi V l mt c o i vi chnh mnh,
v mt U vin khng th ra lnh cho ngi khc. Cc quc
gia thnh vin v c cn tr chi tiu nhm gi cho ng gp
ca h vo ngn sch EU c thp; ng thi, cc i s ca
h ti Brussels lm vic mit mi chim ot cng nhiu
ngn sch EU cho li ch quc gia ca h cng tt. Mi chi
ph, bt lun cho nng nghip, nghin cu khoa hc, hay vin
tr nc ngoi, phi i qua cng cc th tc nhiu kh ny.
Ci m ngi dn nhn thy t bn ngoi l mt b my quan
liu nng u lm vic theo cch qun li nhau b che ph
trong b mt. N dng nh khng chu trch nhim vi bt
k gii c tri no du cho Ngh vin chu u mi y c
c thm quyn hn gim st v Hi ng trc y b h b
do kt qu iu tra ca Ngh vin v tham nhng. B my
quan liu b mt tinh thn v cng chng v mng. Ngh vin
chu u tip tc t c tn trng, nh c chng t bi t l
tham gia thp trong bu c va qua.
Mt thiu s ang tng ln bc b tng v chu u v
theo cc xu hng dn tc ch ngha v bi ngoi. Hi vng l
gii u t chnh tr s c kh nng khch ng cng lun ng
h mt bc na v pha trc, v ln ny bc i phi hng
chng li bn thn gii u t chnh tr. Nhn dn phi thc
hin quyn kim sot trc tip trn chnh quyn EU. Mt
nc i nh vy phi i mt vi vn ch quyn quc gia
trc tip hn trc, v s thnh cng ca n cn xa mi c
m bo. Thc ra, s tht bi c th dn ti s tan r ca Lin
hip chu u, v nht th ho, hi nhp l mt qu trnh ng:
GEORGE SOROS
___________________________________________________

340
Nu n khng tin ln th nht nh li li. Chnh da vo nn
ny m cc vn m rng thnh vin phi c gii quyt.
Trin vng tht l mong manh.
Lm cho vn ti hn, Lin hip chu u rt khng
thnh cng trong lnh vc chnh sch i ngoi. Ct tr th
hai ca Hip c Maastricht dnh cho mt chnh sch i
ngoi chung, nhng n khng nh hng n ch quyn
ca cc nc thnh vin. Kt qu c th tin on c:
Chng c chnh sch chung no hin ln. Chnh sch i
ngoi vn l thuc vo i sng chnh tr ni b ca cc nc
thnh vin. Chnh sch chung b mt tn nhim chnh hnh
ng m phn Hip c Maastricht: Nh mt phn ca cuc
mc c dn ti hip c, nguyn b trng ngoi giao c,
Hans-Dietrich Genscher, ngi c chu u cng nhn v
mt Croatia v Slovenia c lp, do y nhanh chin
tranh Bosnia. Lin hip chu u him khi c kh nng ni
cng mt ting ni v cc vn chnh sch i ngoi, v
thm ch l ting ni ca mt cng quc nh. iu ny l
hin nhin trong cch Lin hip chu u x l vn tan r
ca Nam T - rt, rt thn trng. By gi dng v ny c th
thay i do Lin hip chu u ch nh mt ng hong
chnh sch i ngoi, Javier Solana, nguyn tng th k
NATO, nhng ngay c ng nh th vn khng c ng
thun rng Lin hip chu u phi tr thnh mt quyn lc
ln. Tnh hnh hin thi ni nh i l khng tho mn, v Lin
hip chu u, ging nh Hoa K, cn mt liu mnh v t vn
lng tm khi ng n cc quan h quc t. Hip c n
nh cho ng Nam u c dng nh mt cuc st hch.
C nhiu vn chnh sch i ngoi m cc nc thnh
vin c nhng li ch dn tc xc nh khc vi cc li ch
ca cc thnh vin khc, c bit trong lnh vc thng mi
v u t. S kh bin minh mt s u thc quyn lc cho
Lin hip chu u v cc vn nh vy. Ly mt v d n
gin: di din ngoi giao cc t chc quc t. Anh, Php, v
c c cc li ch ti chnh v cng nghip khc m khng
th c i din mt cch tho ng bi Lin hip chu u.
Lin minh x hi m
__________________________________________________



341
Tuy nhin, c cc vn m li ch chung phi c u tin
hn cc li ch ca cc quc gia thnh vin ring l. Trong
cc trng hp ny li ch chung thng vt qu Lin hip
chu u. Ci g xy ra khu vc Balkan, Trung ng, Bc
Phi, v Lin X trc y lin quan khng ch n Lin hip
chu u m c Hoa K v phn cn li ca th gii na. C
cc x hi m l mt li ch chung ca tt c cc x hi m.
theo ui mc tiu i hi s hp tc vt ra ngoi
Lin hip chu u n Hoa K v cc nc dn ch khc.
C th thy rng hu ht cc vn chnh sch i ngoi
phi c gii quyt hoc mc cao hn hay thp hn mc
Lin hip chu u. Lin hip chu u cn to dng mt lin
minh ca cc nh nc dn ch - thm ch cn hn c Hoa K.


NATO

Rt may c ri mt lin minh vi cc thnh vin thch hp:
NATO. Nhng NATO l mt lin minh qun s, v nhim v
c v cc x hi m l bt k g song khng l qun s.
NATO ng l c mt chiu chnh tr, v cc mc tiu chnh
tr ca n c tuyn b r rng l c v dn ch. iu
khng ngc nhin, v NATO l con ca Chin tranh Lnh.
Nhng chiu chnh tr chng bao gi c kch hot v vn
l mt phn ph cha c dng ca lin minh qun s.
Sau kt thc ca Chin tranh Lnh, NATO tr thnh mt
nh ch khng c s mng. Cc mc tiu ca n phi c
suy tnh li. Mt cuc tho lun si ni din ra sau ,
nhng n c nh khung bi c tnh qun s ca lin
minh. c nhng ting ni ng h mt loi lin minh mi
bao gm c Nga na, nhng c nhng ting ni khc b chi
phi bi nhng cn nhc a chnh tr. Cui cng, t mt s
tho hip: NATO c th m rng v phng ng, thu np
mt s thnh vin ca Khi Warsaw trc y, thit lp mt
ng hi v Ho bnh (Partnership for Peace) vi cc nc
nguyn cng sn, v gi ng kh nng thm cc thnh vin
GEORGE SOROS
___________________________________________________

342

trong tng lai. Cui cng thm ba thnh vin mi: Ba Lan,
Hungary, v cng ho Czech. Rumani v Slovenia chu kh
vn ng vo nhng tht bi; Slovakia b loi v l do
chnh tr; cc nc khc khng c xem xt nghim tc.
*

Ti c gng tham gia mt cch c ngha vo cuc tho
lun bng cch t chc mt cuc hi ngh i Hc Trung
u Budapest. Nhiu ngi tham d, gm c Manfred
Wrner, tng th k NATO lc v l mt ngi c tnh
chnh trc cao, hon ton cam kt cho cc nguyn l ca x
hi m; lc ng giai on au yu cui. Ti xut bn
mt pamphlet trong ti l l nhiu im cng nh ti l l
ngy nay, c th l, th gii hu cng sn cn mt loi lin
minh khc v ng hi v Ho bnh cn phi gn vi mt
ng hi v Thnh vng (Partnership for Prosperity).
Nhng kin ngh qu cp tin. thng qua vic m rng
NATO, tt c mi lc lng ng h n phi c huy ng:
cc nh a chnh tr v cc chin binh ca Chin tranh Lnh
cng nh nhng ngi quan tm hn n c v cc x hi
m. M rng NATO l mt s tho hip khng thoi mi
gia duy tr v cng c s chia r chu u v thc y cc
nguyn l ca x hi m, vi cn cn nghing v ci trc.
Kt qu chng t iu ny. Ly trng hp ca Belarus:
Alexander Lukashenko thit lp s c ti ca tng thng
ph hu dn ch Belarus v cng to ra mt mi e do cc
lc lng dn ch Nga; nhng Nga n nhn Lukashenko v
mi e do do m rng NATO gy ra c coi l quan trng
hn. Trong trng hp ny, s m rng NATO hot ng
trc tip chng li cc li ch ca x hi m.
Trong trng hp Kosovo, NATO can thip nhm bo
v cc nguyn l ca x hi m. Khng mt nc NATO no
c li ch quc gia sng cn b e do, song c mt li ch
chung phn khng mt th d na ca thanh lc sc tc. Cc
nn dn ch phng Ty c lch s tht bi trong i ph

*
Thng 4-2004 kt np thm 7 thnh vin mi: Rumani, Slovenia, Slovakia, Bulgaria,
Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania. V h (tr Bulgaria v Rumani) cng 3 nc trc s l thnh
vin ca EU t 1-5-2004.
Lin minh x hi m
__________________________________________________



343
vi s tan r ca Nam T, nhng dp ny h sn sng ly
mt lp trng cng rn. c s chia r ni b trong chnh
quyn Hoa K, vi B Ngoi giao ng h ti hu th ca
NATO v B Quc phng phn i n. Cui cng chnh l
tng ch huy cc lc lng NATO, Tng Wesley Clark,
ngi lm nghing cn cn ng h can thip. Lu Nm gc
chng bao gi tha th ng v vic y: N bt u cuc chin
chng Tng Clark cng nhiu nh chng Milosevic. Th d,
n ph hoi vic s dng my bay ln thng Apache. V
ng b v hu sm.
Khng hong Kosovo l mt s kin au bun cho c
nhn ti. Ti l mt ngi ch trng phng chm cng
rn chng Milosevic, cho nn ti cm thy thc trch nhim
c nhn v ci xy ra cho d ti chng tham gia vo qu
trnh ra quyt nh. Ti ng h hnh ng qun s, nhng cc
kt qu lm ti ht sc au kh. Theo ti vic nm bom ch
c th c bin minh nu n i sau hnh ng xy dng ci
c th mang li ho bnh v thnh vng cho khu vc.
Trng hp chng Milosevic l kn k. Khng ch ng ta
tin hnh cc hnh ng hung bo c ghi li m v vy ng
ta b to n Hague buc ti; ng ta cng vi phm mt
tho c quc t m ng ta k vi thng trc. Nhng cch
m NATO hnh ng li t lm yn lng. Th bom t trn cao
xc nhn l hng gia gi tr ca cc mng sng M v ca
mnh sng ca nhng ngi m h c cho l phi gip .
S can thip khng ngn chn thanh lc sc tc; ngc li,
n y nhanh vic . Ngay c cc ng c can thip cng
ng nghi ng: N c dng trng pht Milosevic, bo v
dn c Kosovo, hay chng t sc mnh qun s ca NATO?
Cn phi nh rng NATO ang dn ti k nim nm mi
nm thnh lp: Chng phi vinh quang i c hnh k nim
bng mt chin thng qun s?
Nhng thay cho thng nht th gii ln n Milosevic,
can thip ca NATO chia r n. Kt qu cng ng ng.
Loi b vic s dng b binh, tng thng Bill Clinton lm
cho kh hn chin thng, v khi vic Milosevic cui cng
GEORGE SOROS
___________________________________________________

344
chu nhng kim sot Kosovo n nh mt s ngc nhin
tht s vi mi ngi lin quan. Ti khng thch ngh ci g
c th xy ra nu ng ta khng nhng b.
Theo ti, hai yu t ch yu thuyt phc ng ta thoi
lui. Mt l vai tr ca Qun i Gii phng Kosovo (KLA);
hai l vai tr ca Nga. (Vic nm bom cng c nh hng
khi n bt u vi phm qui tc chng nh cc mc tiu dn
s). Mc d tng thng Clinton loi b b binh, li c cc
i qun KLA trn b, v khi h nh nhau vi qun i Nam
T n tr nn d b tn thng vi tn cng t trn khng.
Cc b binh ngi Albani ho ra l mi e do cho qun i
Nam T hn l b binh NATO c th l. Nga ng vai tr
kp. Mt mt, Viktor Chernomyrdin cc k gip ch bng
cch lm cho Milosevic tnh ng l s khng c bt k s ng
h no ca Nga; NATO mc n ng lng bit n. Mt khc,
qun i Nga lm NATO ngc nhin bng cch tin vo
sn bay Pristina trc NATO; cn n mu mo no
dng k pht l s hin din qun s ca Nga. Chng tm
thn phn lit ny phn nh s chia r gia nhng cn nhc
chnh tr v qun s: V mt chnh tr Nga cn t im vi
phng Ty v s ph thuc ca n v kinh t v ti chnh; v
mt qun s, NATO c coi l mt mi e do.


Lin minh X hi M

Xung t Kosovo cng c nim tin chc chn ca ti rng
NATO cn c b sung bng mt lin minh chnh tr m
mc ch dt khot ca n l thc y cc gi tr v cc
nguyn l ca x hi m. Can thip qun s ng h quyn
con ngi lun lun n qu mun, v thng phn tc dng.
Trng tm phi l phng nga khng hong.
Phng nga khng hong khng th bt u sm. N bt
u cng sm, th n cng t cn l cng bc. p lc ngoi
giao hay kinh t c th l , v phn thng c th hiu qu
hn nhng trng pht. Th d, cc quc gia vng Baltic hm
Lin minh x hi m
__________________________________________________



345
h gn vi chu u. Latvia v Estonia ban hnh cc lut v
quyn cng dn hn ch gy ra cc mm mng xung t vi
Nga. Lin hip chu u v T chc An ninh v Hp tc chu
u (OSCE) dng p lc bn b v mang li s thay i v
i x vi cc sc tc thiu s. Latvia v Estonia hin nay l
cc ng vin tham gia EU. Gi nh cng ng quc t biu
l s khng hi lng khi Milosevic hu b tnh t tr ca
Kosovo nm 1989, ng ta c th khng cng c c quyn
lc ca mnh v chnh ph lin bang khng nm trong s
kim sot ca ng ta lc . Gi nh nu NATO can thip
khi hi qun Nam T nm bom Dubrovnik thng 12-1991,
c th trnh c khng hong Bosnia.
Mt lin minh chnh tr c th ngn nga khng hong tt
nht bng y mnh cc gi tr v nguyn l ca x hi m.
iu i hi nhng g?
Khng c thit k n nht cho x hi m. Cc nc c cc
truyn thng khc nhau, vi mc pht trin khc nhau. Ci
lm cho mt x hi l m, l cng dn ca n t do quyt
nh x hi nn c t chc ra sao. Song c vi tin m
bo rng cc cng dn s hng quyn t do . Lin minh
X hi M quan tm n thit lp v duy tr cc tin :
mt hin php dn ch, php tr, t do ngn lun v bo ch,
mt b my t php c lp, v cc kha cnh quan trng khc
ca t do. Ln na, khng c cc tiu chun khch quan, rnh
rnh theo cc tin y c th c nh gi. Lin minh
X hi M s phi thit lp cc tiu chun ring ca mnh vi
thc y v tnh c th sai ca n. N cho mi x hi
phm vi rng ri nht quyt nh c tnh ring ca mnh.
Ci phn bit Thi i C th Sai khi Thi i L tr l
chng ta i n tha nhn rng l tr khng cung cp cc gii
php khng mp m, khng th bn ci. Hy xt lut: Lut La
M v lut Anglo-Saxon l kh khc nhau v c tnh. S l
khng thch hp thc y mt loi lut trn loi kia, nhng
nhiu hn thch ng nht quyt khng nh php tr. Hoc
xt tnh c lp v t php: Khng c phng php an ton
m bo n; ngay c s c lp ca t php Hoa K b
GEORGE SOROS
___________________________________________________

346
nguy him trong cc nm gn y v hot ng chnh tr mang
tnh ng phi. Tuy nhin, ng mong mun ci thin s c
lp v trnh ca ngnh t php mi quc gia.
Mc tiu ca Lin minh s l iu phi hnh ng ca cc
nc thnh vin trong thc y mt x hi m ton cu. C
hai mc tiu tch bit nhng lin quan cn phi t c: Mt
l gip s tin ho ca cc x hi m trong ni b cc
nc ring l; hai l khuyn khch pht trin lut quc t v
cc tiu chun ng x quc t.
Lin minh X hi M theo ui mc tiu u tin bng s
kt hp khn ngoan ca cc cy gy v c c rt. Tip cn
n thng mi v u t hin ra to ln trong c hai loi.
l ch cu trc chnh tr ton cu tr nn tip gip vi cu trc
ti chnh ton cu, v nhiu cy gy v c c rt c th l v
mt ti chnh. Cn nh rng cu trc ti chnh mi ang ni
ln rt thiu cc khuyn khch. Ti kin ngh tng cng nng
lc ca IMF thng cc nc theo ui cc chnh sch
lnh mnh. Ti ng h khuyn ngh ca U ban Meltzer
chuyn Ngn hng Th gii thnh mt C quan Pht trin Th
gii vi iu kin l cc ngun lc ca n c nng cao, hn
l b gim i, v vn cha c gi ca n c dng mt
cch tch cc hn bo lnh cc khon tn dng cho cc
doanh nghip nh v va. Ti ng h vic xo n cho cc
nc ngho thc hin ci cch kinh t v chnh tr. Cc bin
php thm c th cn n trn c s tng trng hp mt.
Hip c n nh cho ng Nam u l mt trng hp nh
vy.
Cc tiu chun do IMF dng quyt nh cc chnh sch
lnh mnh l g s ch yu l v ti chnh; nhng khng c
ng phn ranh cng nhc gia ti chnh v chnh tr. Mt
h thng ngn hng minh bch, c iu hnh mt cch
chuyn nghip, c gim st tt, h thng khng th c
lm dng cho li ch chnh tr, s gip nhiu cho pht trin x
hi m; tnh minh bch ti chnh ch l mt bc ngn t t
do ngn lun v bo ch, v trong cc nc ni t do bo ch
b hn ch, cc tn phiu ti chnh thng cung cp s che ph
Lin minh x hi m
__________________________________________________



347
chnh tr tt nht. C quan Pht trin Th gii c th dng cc
tiu chun chnh tr r rt hn trong phn pht vin tr, c
bit nu n chp nhn tng ca Amartya Sen v pht trin
vi t cch l quyn t do.
C nhiu lnh vc m cc nc dn ch c cc li ch cnh
tranh nhau; h s tip tc theo ui chng mt cch cnh
tranh. Nhng trong s dng cc cy gy v c c rt h phi
hnh ng mt cch hp tc. iu c ngha l t bn thn
h di cc quyt nh tp th. Xt vn nhng trng pht
thng mi: Chng c th c hiu qu ch khi c p dng
tp th. Hoa K c thi quen n phng p t trng pht; n
phi t b thi quen . Th nhng, tt c cc thnh vin phi
thng nht thc hin nhng trng pht c tp th thng
qua; khc i th h khng cn l thnh vin ca Lin minh.
Nhng can thip trng pht trong quan h quc t ca tng
nc ring s c gi mc ti thiu v chng c nhng h
qu khng d tnh trc c. Trng pht thng mi t ra
phn tc dng: Chng hay cng c ch m chng c cho
l phi lm suy yu v nhng k bun lu cn s h tr ca
ch v i li chng phi ng h ch . Trong trng hp
Nam T, a vo danh sch en nhng k ng h ch t
ra c hiu qu hn nhiu. C l l bin h mnh m cho vic
thay trng pht thng mi bng a vo danh sch en h
khi no c kh nng. N s nh trng nhng k ng b nh
v s lm yu, hn l tng cng, ch n mun trng pht.
Can thip qun s, nh mt phng php s dng p lc,
cn t ng mong mun hn l trng pht thng mi. N
khng ch lm tn thng cc nc m n tm cch gip nhn
dn ca h; n cng kh duy tr. Cc nn dn ch khng vui
v chu cc ti xc cht. Mc tiu ca lin minh chnh tr phi
l ngn nga s cn thit ca hnh ng qun s. S sn c
ca cc khuyn khch v trin vng b a vo danh sch en
phi m bo s tun th t nguyn trong hu ht cc trng
hp. S c cc ngoi l, tt nhin, l l do v sao cng cn
n mt lin minh qun s. Khi cn n hnh ng qun s,
s thc l n ch xy ra sau cc hnh ng ngn nga s cho
GEORGE SOROS
___________________________________________________

348

n tnh hp php ln hn. D c ng th, vic s dng v
lc phi c coi l s tha nhn tht bi.
75

Lin minh X hi M s phi tch bit khi NATO sao cho
n khng b sa ly vo kha cnh qun s. c c tnh
hp php ln hn NATO, n phi c s thnh vin rng ri
hn. N phi c ng cho bt k nc no tn thnh cc
mc tiu ca n bt chp v tr a l. Cn c vo s khc bit
gia ngoi vi v trung tm, tuy vy, Lin minh phi bao gm
cng nhiu nc ngoi vi cng tt. Cn c vo s t i ca cc
nn dn ch chn mui ngoi vi, cc nc mong mun dn
ch cng c th c kt np nh cc thnh vin ng c,
nhng phi chm sc c bit cho ng x ca h phi phn
nh kht vng ca h. Mt thiu st thng gp ca cc t
chc quc t l chng him khi khai tr hay tm nh ch cc
thnh vin mt khi c kt np. Lin minh X hi M
phi khc kha cnh ny.
T cch thnh vin ca Lin minh c th khng bao gi
thay th chnh sch i ngoi; thc y x hi m s lun
lun phi cnh tranh vi cc mc tiu khc. Nhng lin minh
s to thm mt yu t, rt thiu, vo trong cc quan h
quc t - c th l, h tr v nhng khuyn khch cho s pht
trin chnh tr v kinh t. Lin minh s c hiu qu nht trong
quan h vi nhng ngi nhn c quyt tm. Trong cc nc
ging nh Indonesia, n c th to s khc bit gia thnh
cng v tht bi. Cc cng c ch yu ca n s dng p
lc i vi cc chnh ph ngoan c s l gi li cc li ch v
ty chay cc th lnh ca ch . Mi trng hp i hi cch
x l khc nhau. Tht vy, c th nn lp ra cc lin kt ring
bit gii quyt cc lnh vc c th: Balkan, Thung lng

75
T chc cc Quc gia chu M (OAS) cho mt tin l hu ch. Ngh quyt Santiago nm
1991, yu cu tng th k OAS triu tp mt cuc hp cc b trng ngoi giao ca cc nc
thnh vin trong vng mi ngy sau mt cuc o chnh hay s gin on ca mt chnh
ph c bu mt cch hp php. Ngh quyt s 1080 c dng bn ln: Sau o chnh
Haiti nm 1991, t o chnh Peru nm 1992 v Guatemala nm 1993, v mi e do
chnh ph Paraguay nm 1996. Trong mi trng hp, c ch gip tp hp s ng h
chnh tr hiu qu cho phc hi nn dn ch hin nh.
Lin minh x hi m
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349
Ferghana, hay Burundi. Lin minh cng c th cp cc vn
mi trng nh s nng ln ton cu.
iu ny dn chng ta n mc tiu ch yu th hai ca
Lin minh, l c v s pht trin lut quc t v cc tiu
chun ng x quc t. Trong khung cnh ny, ti s kho st
T chc Thng mi Th gii (WTO), sau n Lin Hip
Quc.


T chc Thng mi Th gii (WTO)

T chc Thng mi Th gii l mt nh ch kh m c.
Cc qui tc ca n cn phc tp hn Lut Thu nhp Ni a
(Thu) ca Hoa K v c thit lp bi cc cuc mc c ng
sau cc cnh ca ng kn mt. Tht tnh mt ti c ra mi
khi cuc tho lun chuyn sang WTO; song n l mt nh
ch quan trng cung cp cc qui tc c s cho thng mi t
do trn khp th gii. N c Hoa K v Lin hip chu u
ng h, mc d h thng ci nhau v cc vn c bit.
Mi y WTO len vo sn khu th gii trong thi gian
hi ngh ca n Seattle, bang Washington. Trc kia c
mt n lc thit lp mt iu l cho u t quc t, iu l
s phi lut ho cc li th m vn nc ngoi c hng
trong h thng t bn ton cu. iu ny b mt lin kt quc
t ca cc t chc phi chnh ph (NGO) lm tht bi. Ti hi
ngh Seattle, Hoa K mun a ra vn cc tiu chun
quc t v lao ng v mi trng. N cho cc NGO mt c
hi tn cng WTO. H lp mt lin minh ng bin ngay
vi cc lc lng ch trng bo h Hoa K, ch yu l cc
nghip on, v hi ngh Seattle sp trong huyn no m .
l iu ng tic nht, v cc vn ny sinh Seattle i
vo ng tm im ca mt x hi m.
Cc tiu chun v lao ng v mi trng l mt li ch
chung quan trng b WTO b qua v n c th c dng nh
mt s bo cha cho ch ngha bo h. Nhng thng mi t
do cng l mt li ch chung quan trng. N to ra ca ci cho
GEORGE SOROS
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350
php chng ta quan tm n cc vn lao ng v mi
trng. Tt nhin, to ra ca ci cng lm trm trng thm
chnh cc vn . Li ch chung no phi c u tin l
vn thuc trin vng; c hai u quan trng. Lm sao c
th dung ho chng? Khng c li gii d. Nu WTO p t
hnh pht cho vic vi phm cc tiu chun lao ng v mi
trng n s pht cc nc km pht trin v h l nhng
ngi phm li chnh. N s lm nghing sn chi hn na
chng li h. Cc nc chm pht trin s chng bao gi tha
th cho iu , v WTO s sp .
y l ni mt cch tip cn xy dng phi bt u vo
cuc. Cc nc chm pht trin phi c n b cho vic
a ra cc tiu chun lao ng v mi trng. Chnh cc nc
giu l cc nc mun p t cc tiu chun, v cc nc
ngho khng th c iu kin thc hin chng. Nn l
lun rng cc nc giu phi ra nhng khuyn khch hn l
p t cc hnh pht. Ci g tng t xy ra trong bun
bn cc quyn thi [ nhim]. Cc hnh pht s ph hu
thng mi t do; cc khuyn khch s WTO yn trong khi
li ci thin tnh hnh lao ng v mi trng.
Cc NGO phi nhn bc tranh ln hn, nhng qu thng
xuyn h tr thnh nhng ngi ch trng li ch c bit.
Trong ngha , h chng tt hn cc i din ca li ch kinh
doanh, d l h cm thy chnh ng hn. Mt cch no ,
th, mt s NGO tr thnh ging vic kinh doanh, to ra thu
nhp bng cch ch trng mt s nghip. Trong khi x hi
dn s l mt phn quan trng ca x hi m, li ch chung
khng th c duy nht cho h chm lo. Chng ta cn cc
nh ch cng bo v cc li ch cng cng. WTO l mt
nh ch nh vy; s tht ng tic i hu hoi n. Nhng n
c hin dng cho thc y mt li ch chung thng mi
t do - loi tr nhng li ch khc. Chng ta phi tm ra mt
cch thc y cc li ch chung khc m chng ta coi l
quan trng. Lin Hip Quc c th gip?


Lin minh x hi m
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351
Lin Hip Quc

Tht quan trng hiu ci g Lin Hip Quc c th v
khng th lm. N l mt nh ch c thiu st cn bn, v n
l mt hip hi ca cc quc gia v nh th b nhim thiu ht
dn ch. Cho d l nhn dn c th kim sot i din ca
ring nc h ti Lin Hip Quc, h khng c kim sot g
i vi bn thn t chc Lin Hip Quc c. Thiu ht dn
ch c cng c khi mt s quc gia thnh vin cn cha l
dn ch. Cc quc gia thnh vin thc hin quyn b nhim
cho mi b nhim nhn s. Thiu st ch yu ca Lin Hip
Quc l cc mc tiu ca n c nu trong Li ni u ca
Hin chng c din t di dng nhn dn trong khi
bn thn t chc li c cu trc di dng cc quc gia; kt
qu l, Lin Hip Quc c l khng th hon thnh cc ha
hn cha trong Li ni u.
l mt s thc ng tic, nhng mt khi chng ta tha
nhn n v h thp cc k vng ca chng ta mt cch tng
ng, Lin Hip Quc c th rt c ch. Khi cc nh ch quc
t yu i, Lin Hip Quc c tim nng to ln. N c bn
thnh phn chnh: Hi ng Bo an, i Hi ng, Ban Th
k, v mt lot cc c quan c bit. Hy xem tng ci mt.
Hi ng Bo an l mt cu trc c ngh ra kho v c
th c hiu lc trong p t ch ca n ln th gii nu cc
thnh vin thng trc c th thng nht vi nhau. Kt thc
ca Chin tranh Lnh to mt c hi Hi ng Bo an
hot ng nh n c d kin ban u, nhng c hi b
ph phm mt khi ba thnh vin thng trc phng Ty -
Hoa K, Vng quc Anh, v Php khng thng nht
c vi nhau v gii quyt khng hong Bosnia ra sao. H
gi cc i qun gi gn ho bnh n ni chng c ho
bnh gi. Uy tn ca cc hot ng gn gi ho bnh Lin
Hip Quc b tn hi khng sao sa cha c. C hi
chc khng ti din trong tng lai gn v c Nga ln Trung
Quc u chc khng d sai bo nh vo nm 1992. Hi ng
Bo an c th hu ch trong cc trng hp c th, nhng s
GEORGE SOROS
___________________________________________________

352
khng khn ngoan i da vo n nh cng c duy tr ho bnh
ch yu.
i Hi ng hin nay l din n sung (talking-shop),
nhng n c th tr thnh ging mt c quan lp php hn
cho x hi m ca chng ta nu Lin minh X hi M
n n. Mt hi ng cc quc gia c ch quyn c th khng
ph hp cho vic thc hin cc chc nng chp hnh, nhng
n rt t cch nh mt c quan lp php quc t vi iu
kin l thiu ht dn ch c th c khc phc. ng tic c
t thin hng hin nay s dng i Hi ng vo bt c
vic g ngoi nh mt din n sung. Ban th k cng c th
ng mt vai tr quan trng hn hin nay vi iu kin
phng php la chn Tng th k c thay i. Hin ti,
cc thnh vin thng trc ca Hi ng Bo an c quyn
ph quyt (veto), v Hoa K, ring n, khng mun c mt
Tng th k Lin Hip Quc mnh v c lp.
Cc c quan c bit nh Chng trnh Pht trin Lin
Hip Quc (UNDP), T chc Pht trin Cng nghip Lin
Hip Quc (UNIDO), T chc Gio dc, Khoa hc, v Vn
ho Lin Hip Quc (UNESCO), v cc t chc khc to
thnh mt yu t ca Lin Hip Quc ng cho s ph phn.
Ch vi trong s chng hot ng c hiu qu. S b nhim
c tin hnh trn c s bo tr quc gia, khng trn c s
phm cht, ti nng. Kh sa thi cc quan chc v cn kh
hn dp b cc c quan khi chng khng cn s mng.
Chnh cc c im ny l ci gy ting xu cho Lin Hip
Quc.
Cc b my quan liu quan tm n t-duy tr hn l n
thc hin s mng ca mnh. Khi mt b my quan liu chu
trch nhim khng phi vi mt ch nhn m vi ton b cc
thnh vin ca Lin Hip Quc, n nm ngoi vng kim
sot. Mt hip hi ca cc quc gia khng ph hp vi vic
thc hin bt k chc nng thi hnh no. Trong chng mc c
cc chc nng thi hnh phi c thc hin, chng phi c
u thc cho cc nh ch c bit vi cc quan chc iu
hnh, ngn sch, v hi ng (qun tr) ring ca n v nhng
Lin minh x hi m
__________________________________________________



353
ngi iu hnh phi bo co cho hi ng qun tr. Cc nh
ch Bretton Woods, bt chp tt c nhc im ca chng,
hot ng tt hn cc c quan Lin Hip Quc nhiu, v thm
ch hi ng qun tr nm qu nhiu quyn lc.
Do cch m cc quc gia thnh vin i x vi n, c bit
l Hoa K, Lin Hip Quc mt nhiu thin ch v uy tn
m mt thi n c. Bt chp nhng khim khuyt ca n,
Lin Hip Quc thng c mt quyn lc o c v s tn
trng no . M xanh thng cho qun lnh ca Lin Hip
Quc mt mc bo v no . Nhiu trong s nay b
mt v s kh ly li.
c tha nhn rng ri rng Lin Hip Quc cn phi
c ci cch. V s cc nghin cu c tin hnh a ra
kin ngh hng lot ci cch, nhng chng ci cch no c
thc hin v cc quc gia thnh vin khng th thng nht. Do
Lin Hip Quc vn l mt nh ch b h hi, kh sa
cha.
Lin minh X hi M, hn bt k sng kin no khc, s c
c hi phi chng lm cho Lin Hip Quc sng theo kh
nng ca n nu cc thnh vin ca Lin minh c th thng
nht gia h vi nhau. Lin minh c la chn hot ng
hoc trong phm vi hay ngoi Lin Hip Quc, cho n n
by m khng ci cch no khc c.


Lin minh lm sao c th ci t Lin Hip Quc? N c th
a ra qui tc a s v bin i Hi ng thnh mt c quan
lp php. Cc lut do i Hi ng thng qua ch c hiu lc
cc nc ph chun chng, nhng cc thnh vin ca Lin
minh X hi M cam kt s ph chun cc lut mt cch t
ng, min l chng c a s t cch t nguyn ph
chun. Cc nc khng tn trng quyt nh ca a s t
cch s b khai tr khi Lin minh. Theo cch nhiu lut
quc t c th c pht trin m khng vi phm nguyn l
ch quyn quc gia.
GEORGE SOROS
___________________________________________________

354
Ci g to thnh a s t cch? Ti thy tng v b
ba tri buc do Richard Hudson xut lin quan n Lin
Hip Quc l rt hp dn. N c th c chp nhn cho Lin
minh. Mt a s t cch s c to thnh bi hai phn ba
cc nc thnh vin, hai phn ba dn s ca h, v hai phn
ba ca tng sn phm quc ni (GDP) ca h. Nhng ti
khng t cch quyt nh nhng chi tit nh vy; chng
phi c quyt nh bi cc thnh vin ca Lin minh.
Nu Lin minh tm cch kim sot c Lin Hip Quc,
n s ch nh tng th k, ngi s chu trch nhim v Ban
Th k, v Ban Th k s hng dn cng vic lp php ca
i Hi ng. V tr tng th k s i th tng ng vi
th lnh c bu ca ng chim a s trong mt quc gia
dn ch. Xt thy quyn hn c tng cng rt nhiu ca
c quan, s ng mong mun tng th k chu s bi min
thng qua b biu bt tn nhim ca Lin minh.
Hi ng Bo an c th vn gi nguyn chc nng, nhng
cc thnh vin thng trc s mt quyn ph quyt, v cc
thnh vin nht thi s do Lin minh la chn hn l c
lun phin thun tu trn c s a l. Nhng thnh vin
thng trc thuc Lin minh s t b quyn ph quyt bi
c hnh l thnh vin ca Lin minh, v h buc lng phi
tn trng cc quyt nh a s t cch ca n. C th hi v
sao hai thnh vin thng trc khc, Nga v Trung Quc, s
sn lng t b c quyn ca h. Cu tr li l h c th thch
vn l thnh vin thng trc m khng c quyn ph quyt
hn l thy Hi ng Bo an b thay th bi mt t chc khc
m h khng l thnh vin.
ng nghi ng hn nhiu l liu Hoa K s c sn lng tn
trng cc qui tc ca Lin minh hay khng. N i hi s thay
i trit v thi thnh hnh. Trn thc t, Hoa K c rt
t s vic t b quyn ph quyt so vi cc thnh vin
thng trc khc, v hu nh khng chc xy ra l Lin minh
s i chng li mun ca mt siu cng m lng trung
thnh ca n l rt cn thit lm cho Lin minh hu hiu.

Lin minh x hi m
__________________________________________________



355

Trong Thi i ca Tnh C th Sai chng ta phi t b gi
thit duy l. Th nhng, c cc l do chnh ng v sao mt
cch tip cn a phng li c th thu ht tr tng tng ca
cng chng M. Hoa K c th c li nhiu t tham gia vo
lin minh v n c th chia s gnh nng hot ng nh cnh
st th gii. Hoa K c th cung cp h tr hu cn v k thut,
da vo ngi khc cung cp qun b.
Ngay c khng c cc ci cch su rng ny, ch t c mt
bc quan trng m Hoa k nn ng h ngay by gi: to
nng lc thng xuyn trong ni b Lin Hip Quc cung
cp cnh st dn s cho cc tnh hung nh Kosovo, Haiti, v
ng Timor. Tng th k Lin Hip Quc, Kofi Annan,
yu cu nng lc nh vy, v chnh quyn Clinton ng h,
song Quc hi li t chi phn b tin.


L l ng h Lin minh X hi M

L l ng h Lin minh X hi M c th c xy dng trn
hai lp lun. Mt khn ngoan, mt mang tnh l tng ch
ngha. L l khn ngoan l ngy nay Hoa K c u th qun s
ln hn bt k thi k no trong lch s; mi e do chnh i
vi ho bnh v thnh vng n t tnh hnh ni b thnh
hnh cc nc khc, tnh hnh c th b cc nh lnh o v
lim s li dng, v Hoa K khng th gii quyt cc mi e
do ny ring mt mnh; cho nn n cn lp mt lin minh vi
cc nc c kin ging nhau.
Bng cch dn u mt lin minh nh vy, Hoa K c th
ly li v gi c v tr lnh o ca n trn th gii v s
tham gia ca Hoa K l khng th thiu c lm cho
tng thnh cng. Bng cch tham gia vo mt lin minh nh
vy, cc nc dn ch khc c th c ting ni ln hn trong
cai qun cc quan h quc t. H cng s c li ch t mt trt
t th gii n nh hn.
GEORGE SOROS
___________________________________________________

356
Nu Hoa K tip tc hnh ng mt cch n phng, th
ch cn l vn thi gian trc khi cc nc phn n vi s
thng tr ca n n mc h lp lin minh ca ring h lm
i trng vi quyn lc ca n; v th u vit ca Hoa K s
mt i. V h thng i trng quyn lc l cn xa mi chc
chn duy tr ho bnh, kh nng v mt xung t ln thm
khc s tng ln ng k.
L l ny l hp l, nhng kh lm cho n thuyt phc bi
v n hon ton mang tnh gi thuyt. Phi v ra nhng vin
cnh ng s v i cho n khi chng xy ra mi c th ni
rng, ti bo m. l mt bi tp khng b cng, nh
ti pht hin ra lin quan n Nga. Ti thy hp dn hn
trnh by tng trn c s l tng ch ngha chn thnh.
Mt x hi m s lm cho th gii l mt ch tt hn, v Hoa
K mnh v giu thc y n. y l mt ngh n
gin v gy cm hng. im yu ca n l ch ngha l tng
c coi l mm yu v mp m v hay b thua cc nhm li
ch c bit. N lun lun thua khi xung t vi cc li ch
c bit. Yu im c th c khc phc bng cch lm du
ch ngha l tng i vi s tha nhn tnh c th sai ca
chng ta. iu ny lm du bt cc k vng ca chng ta, lm
cho chng ta khoan dung hn vi nhng khuyt im ca can
thip xy dng, v bo v chng ta khi mt s cm by ca
ch ngha tch cc chnh tr. X hi m l mt l tng l k
khng hng ti s hon m. N cung cp mt khung dn
chiu trong phm vi ch ngha l tng c th thnh cng.
Tht l, ng l x hi m ln nht trn th gii - Hoa K -
chng bao gi chp nhn cc hn ch c hu trong khi
nim v x hi m. N a ra cc tiu chun cho i cng
m khng chnh tr gia no c th p ng, v n cho rng
mnh c quyn p t cc tiu chun ring ca n v nhn
quyn v cc gi tr dn ch cho cc nc khc. Khng ngc
nhin l nhng kht vng cao thng ca chng ta phi chu
s phn tht vng. Chng ta c th t nhiu hn bng k
vng t hn. Thay cho p t cc gi tr ca chng ta, chng ta
phi tha nhn tnh c th sai ca chng ta. Thay cho hnh
Lin minh x hi m
__________________________________________________



357
ng n phng, chng ta phi tham gia to ra cc qui tc
m chng ta sn lng tn trng.
Lin minh X hi M s tm s t nguyn phc tng,
nhng vi ch tt nht trn i n khng th lun lun thnh
cng. V vy s la chn qun s khng th b loi tr. Nu
Lin minh khng kim sot c Hi ng Bo an, n vn c
th b qua Hi ng Bo an v khch hot NATO m khng
c chun y ca Hi ng Bo an, nh n lm trong khng
hong Kosovo. S thc rng Lim minh vt cn ht cc la
chn mang tnh xy dng s cho cc hnh ng trng pht ca
n tnh chnh ng ln hn NATO c trong trng hp
Kosovo.
Liu Lin minh X hi M, bt lun hot ng trong hay
ngoi khun kh Lin Hip Quc, c kh nng trnh nhng
thiu st dng nh lm au bun mi hip hi cc quc gia,
c th l thiu ht dn ch v thiu ht nng lc ra quyt nh
hay khng? C l khng. Nhng nhng tc ng c hi nh
vy c th c gim i bng cch nhn ra chng t trc.
Th d, c th a vo mt iu khon hong hn (sunset
clause) s t ng chm dt Lin minh, th d, sau hai mi
lm nm. Mi khi mt nh ch mi c thnh lp, n
thng thm m bi mt thc s mnh b mn mt i vi
thi gian. iu ny ng vi Lin Hip Quc. N to ra s
hng hi ln lao khi n c thnh lp, nhng hu ht nhng
ngi cam kt ng h n by gi qua tui v hu. Lin
Hip Quc c th chc chn c li t mt iu khon
hong hn. Khng gii php no l hon ho hay c hiu lc
mi mi. Bt k lin minh x hi m no u phi ng cho
xem xt li v ci thin.
Thiu ht dn ch l mt vn c hu trong mi t chc
quc t, nhng nu Lin minh X hi M tht s thnh cng
trong chuyn i Hi ng thnh mt c quan lp php, c
th chng ta ch c mt liu qu nhiu v dn ch, vi mi
NGO x ca vi cc kin ngh lp php. X hi dn s
quc t c kh nng t cc thnh tu to ln nh cm mn,
nhng vi s gip ca Internet, n nhiu khi c th tr nn
GEORGE SOROS
___________________________________________________

358
qu . Tt c chng ta u thy ci g xy ra cuc hp
WTO ti Seattle. May thay c s bo v vng chc chng
nhng thi qu v lp php. Lut ch c hiu lc cc nc
chun y chng, v chng phi c chun bi a s t
cch ca Lin minh trc khi cc thnh vin khc buc phi
lm vy. Tt nhin, cc lut cng s phi tri qua s xem xt t
m v mt t php mi nc bao gm c To n Ti cao
Hoa k. iu ny cho thm mt tp cc kim tra v cn i
(checks and balances) thit yu i vi bt k x hi m no.
Trong khi ti kh nghi ng cnh gic v cc NGO t b
nhim, t cho l ng, ti c lng tin ln hn vo nhn vin
ca Lin minh v, nu Lin minh thu tm c Lin Hip
Quc, vo nhn vin Lin Hip Quc. D tuyn nhn vin
chuyn tm cho cc t chc quc t, min l h c la chn
trn c s ti nng phm cht ch khng trn c s bo tr
quc gia. C nhiu, rt nhiu ngi tt phc v cho Lin Hip
Quc bt chp mi s tht vng. ci thin tnh hnh, tng
th k v nhng ngi lnh o cc c quan khc nhau ca
Lin Hip Quc phi c trao quyn tuyn v sa thi nhn
vin v chu trch nhim v thnh tch ca t chc ca mnh.


Ti khng mun i tho chi tit cc c tnh ca mt Lin
minh X hi M v ti cng dn thm th ti cng thy mnh
b bao ph trong mt bu khng kh ho huyn. Chi tit phi
do nhng ngi tham gia vch ra. Lin minh c th c nhiu
hnh thc, t mt lin minh chnh thc n cc lin kt tu
hng (ad hoc) cp n cc nc hay cc vn c bit.
Xt theo quan nim ny, tng cn xa mi ho huyn; tht
vy, n trong qu trnh c thc hin ri. Mng li qu
ca ti tham gia vo mt lot cc lin kt tu hng, tri t
Hip c Mn n Qu Cho vay Pht trin cc Phng tin
Truyn thng, chuyn tm cho vic c v cc phng tin
truyn thng c lp cc nc cn n chng.
Sng kin to mt x hi m ton cu khng th k vng
n t cc chnh ph; n phi c s ng h ca cc c tri
Lin minh x hi m
__________________________________________________



359
on. Cc chnh ph dn ch c cho l p li nhng mong
mun ca c tri; tr phi nhn dn tht s quan tm n cc
nguyn l ca x hi m, cc nguyn l s khng thng th.
C th hi, lm sao c th dung ho tuyn b ny vi nhn
xt tn nhn trc y ca ti v nhng ngi bo v t b
nhim, t cho mnh l ng ca x hi dn s? Rt d. Trong
khi xung lc thc y cc nguyn l ca x hi m phi
n t nhn dn, x hi dn s khng th t n lm c cng
vic ny; n phi tranh th c s ng h ca cc chnh ph.
Cc qu ca ti thy rng chng c th c nh hng ln
hn nu chng hp tc vi hoc gy p lc ln cc chnh ph.
nh hng l kp: Chng gy ra nhng s thay i trong lnh
vc c th m chng tham gia, th d, ci cch nh t, gio
dc, hay bo v nhng ngi thiu nng tinh thn; ng thi
chng cng ci thin cht lng ca chnh ph.
Quan trng din t r rng tm nhn v i v mt x
hi m ton cu; nhng x hi m c th c tip cn ch
mi bc mt lc. l l do v sao ti khng mun trang
im ci c th m thch tp trung vo ci thc tin. X hi
m i mt vi mt st hch thc tin Balkan. Mt lin
minh chnh thc ca cc quc gia dn ch c cam kt ri
, v chnh l nng lc ca h thnh cng. Nu chng ta
lm tt bn phn ca mnh Balkan; n s a chng ta thm
mt bc gn hn ti l tng ca mt x hi m ton cu.
Theo cng cch , nu chng ta tht bi , trin vng
cho mt x hi m ton cu s cng b tht li. Cc qu ca
ti cam kt lm cho Hip c n nh thnh cng v chnh
n v v x hi m. Ti tin chng ta c th to ra mt x hi
m ton cu tng bc mt.



KT LUN



Khi ti a bn tho ca cun sch ny cho nh xut bn, ti
trn y s pha trn ca ni lo u v nhng k vng ln lao.
Nh ti biu l trong dn nhp, ti min cng ri n.
Ti trnh by cc tng ca mnh r nh ti c th?
Chng c nht qun khng? Chng cng c ngha nhiu cho
nhng ngi khc nh cho chnh ti? y l nhng cu hi
lm ti y ny. Nhng lo lng ca ti c tng cng bi s
thc l ti c th ci thin bn tho cho n pht cui
cng. Nhng ti lm n chng mc bn thn ti c th.
Ti hc c rt nhiu t ph phn ca nhng ngi khc,
v ti c th tip tc lm vy sau khi sch c xut bn.
Nhng k vng ca ti tp trung vo Lin minh X hi M.
Ti khng bit xut ca mnh s gi ln phn ng g, song
ti bit rng chng ta cn to ra tin b theo phng hng
ny nu chng ta mun tn dng cc kh nng m s pht
trin ca nn kinh t ton cu m ra cho chng ta. Liu ti c
thuyt phc c nhng ngi khc hay khng, ti tm
cch t thuyt phc mnh. Sau mt giai on hot ng in
r trong ti c mt tng r rng v cn lm ci g, ti
cm thy cn phi sp xp li cc tng ca ti v x hi
m. Ti lm vy trong cun sch ny. Mt ln na, ti c
thc r rng v s mnh ca mng li qu ca ti. Ti s
khng nu r n ra y v n c th xen vo tnh phn thn
ca ti trong thc hin n c mt s tng t y vi vn
a ra cc tuyn b cng khai khi ti cn tham gia tch cc
vo cng vic kim tin nhng ti s th tuyn b mt cch
tng qut: c v thnh phn x hi dn s ca Lin minh
X hi M.

GEORGE SOROS
Thng 8, 2000



CH MC

A
Aksyonenko, Nikolai, 260
Albania, qu ; Albania, foundation
in, 316
Allen, Peter, 87
America Online, 70
Annan, Kofi, 355
Antal, Joseph, 192
Argentina, h thng ngn hng v
ti chnh; banking and financial
system, 275, 287
ASEAN, 214
n khng, vn ; Free rider
problem, 154-155
n d im m; Blind spot
metaphor, 24

B
Ba Lan, qu x hi m; Poland,
open society foundations, 311-312
Baker, James, 264, 312, 317
Balkan
cc qu x hi m ; open
society foundations in, 311
Xem Hip c n nh cho
ng Nam u
Bangladesh, chng trnh cho vay
cc nh; microlending programs,
163
Basayev, Shamil, 258, 261
Basle, tho c 1988; Basle Accord
of 1988, 189, 278, 297
Bt cn bng ng; Dynamic
disequilibrium, 79-82, 107-108
cc ng ranh gii;
demarcation lines, 109-110
Bt trc, nhn t; Uncertainty,
element of, 13
Belarus
qu b cm ; foundations
banned in, x
tnh hnh chnh tr; political
stuation, 342
Berezovsky, Boris, 242, 243, 245,
258, 259, 260
Bergson, Henri, xx, xxi, 115
Berlin, Isaiah, 132-133, 157
Bernoulli, Daniel, 54
Bin chng, php; Dialectics, 91-93
Boom-bust, m hnh, Xem M hnh
boom-bust
Boutros-Ghali, Boutros, 317
Brazil
u t Nga; Russian
investment, 246
tnh hnh ti chnh; financial
situation, 222, 271, 287
v Ngn hng Th gii; and
World Bank, 282, 284
Bretton Woods, cc nh ch;
Bretton Woods institutions, xiv,
174, 189, 190, 266, 287, 352
Bulgaria, qu ; foundation in, 316
Bundesbank, 289, 300
Burma Xem Min in
Bush, George, 236, 336

C
C nhn can d; Encumbered
individual, 127-130
Cch mng giao thng th k 19;
Transportation revolution of 19
th

century, 173
Cch mng Php; French
Revolution, 123
Cch mng truyn thng th k 20;
Communications revolution, of the
20
th
century, 173
Ci bin (ci t) x hi; Social
engineering, 310
Cnh tranh hon ho, l thuyt v;
Perfect competition, theory of, xiii,
52, 183, 196, 304
Cm mn; Land mines ban, 140, 358
Cn bn, nhng ci; Fundamentals,
75-76
v nh gi; and valuations, 60-
61
v gi c phiu; and stock prices,
63-64
v thin kin ca ngi tham
gia; and participants bias, 62
Cn bng di hn i li ngn hn;
long-term vs. short-term
equilibrium, 63
Ch mc
__________________________________________________


362

Cn bng di hn; Long-term
equilibrium, 63
Cn bng ngn hn; Short-term
equilibrium, 63
Cn bng, nh ngha; Equilibrium,
definition, 63, 76, 111
Cn bng, l thuyt; Equilibrium
theory, xiii, xxvi, 19, 45-46, 50-51
Cu trc chnh tr ton cu; Global
political architecture, 301-329
ch ngha hin thc a chnh tr;
geopolitical realism, 303-305
Cu trc chnh tr, nhc im
trong; Political architecture,
weakness in, xiv
Cu trc chnh tr. Xem Cu trc
chnh tr Ton cu
Cu trc ti chnh ton cu; Global
financial architecture, 265-300
cc cng c phi sinh;
derivatives, 290-295
cc qu t bo him v qui nh
hot ng ngn hng; hedge
funds and banking regulations,
296-298
cu trc mi ( xut ci cch);
new architecture (reform
proposals), 270-276
him ho o c; moral hazard,
273, 274
kim sot vn; capital controls,
298-300
mt xut ci cch khim tn;
a modest reform proposal, 276-
280
sn chi bng phng; a level
playing field, 274, 276
v Ngn hng Th gii; and the
World Bank, 281-286
Cu trc ti chnh Xem cu trc ti
chnh ton cu
Centre for European Policy Studies
(CEPS);Trung tm Nghin cu
Chnh sch u chu, 325
Chn l; Truth
nh ngha; definition of, 15
khi nim phn thn v; reflexive
concept of, 21-23
l thuyt tng hp;
correspondence theory of, 5-7,
15
Chu u, cng ng; European
Community, 307, 312
Chu u, lin hip; European
Union (EU), xviii, 184, 287, 325,
326, 330, 337-340, 344, 349
Chu u, U ban; European
Commission, 325, 338-339
Chu Phi; Africa
v tham nhng chnh tr; and
political corruption, 150
vin tr nc ngoi; foreign aid,
xviii
xung t; conflicts, 301
Chechnya
hot ng khng b; terrorist
activities, 258-259
Nga xm chim; Russian
invation, 261-262, 313
tnh hnh chnh tr; political
situation, 328
Chernomyrdin, Viktor, 246, 256,
259, 344
Chin tranh Lnh; Cold War, xv,
105, 302, 305-307, 331, 332, 341
Chin tranh Th gii I; World War
I, 107, 169, 173, 195, 267, 302
Chin tranh Th gii II; World War
II, xiv, xxi, 177, 178, 338
K hoch Marshall; Plan, 236,
264
Phng tuyn Maginot; Line, 267
Chin tranh Vit Nam; Vietnam
War, 304, 331
Chile
khng hong n 1982; debt
crisis of 1982, 191, 192
kim sot vn; capital controls,
298
Chirac, Jacques, 150
Chi theo lut (qui tc); Playing by
the rules, xxvi
Index
__________________________________________________



363

Chn lc t nhin; Natural
selection, 94
Ch ngha cng sn; Communism,
104
v thuyt th trng chnh thng;
and market fundamentalism,
118
Ch ngha a nguyn gi tr; Value
pluralism, 133, 157
Ch ngha Darwin; Darwinism, 94,
304, 305, 334-335
Ch ngha quc; Imperialism,
172
Ch ngha hin thc a chnh tr;
Geopolitical realism, 303-305
Ch ngha Marx; Marxism, 41, 45,
47, 146, 197
Ch ngha pht xt; Fascism, xi
Ch ngha thc chng logic;
Logical positivism, 16, 17, 18, 21
Ch quyn, nh nc quc gia;
Sovereignty, nation-state, 124, 168
Chubais, Anatoly, 239, 244, 245,
246, 248, 258, 259, 260
Citibank, 99
Citigroup, 226
Clark, Wesley, 342-343
Clinton, Bil, 307, 336, 343
C th Sai, Thi i ca tnh; Age
of Fallibility, 345, 354
C th sai, tnh Xem Tnh c th sai
Conglomerate boom, 66-69, 80, 148
Cng bng x hi; Social justice,
132
Cng ti Bo him Bo lnh Th
chp; Mortgage Guarantee
Insurance Corporation
(Magic), 76
Cng ng chu u; European
Community, 307, 312
C ch th trng; Market
mechanism, 169
C ch t gi; Exchange rate
mechanism (ERM), 193, 289, 300
C quan Bo lnh u t a
phng; Multilateral Investment
Guarantee Agency, 283
C quan Pht trin Th gii; World
Development Agency, 283, 284,
285, 336, 346
Creata, nhng ngi; Creatans, 15
Croatia, chng p bc; Croatia,
resistance to oppression, ix
Cc D tr Lin bang; Federal
Reserve
chnh sch tin t; monetary
policy, 187
v li sut; and interest rate, 71,
191, 206, 223, 280
v nn kinh t Hoa K; and U.S.
economy, 152, 279-280, 289
v s sp kinh t Nga; and
Russian economic collapse,
294-295
Cuny, Fred, 262, 313-314
Cyprus, cc cng ti m ; Cyprus,
holding companies in, 139, 240

D
Darwin, ch ngha; Darwinism, 94,
304, 305, 334-335
Dayton, hip c; Dayton Accords
(1995), 318
Dn ch; Democracy
cc nn dn ch i din;
representative democracies,
146-152
c v pht trin ~; fostering
development of, xvii-xviii
tng quan vi ch ngha t bn;
correlation with capitalism, xi
vn v pht trin ~; capital and
development of, 179-181
Xem c lin minh ca cc nn
dn ch
Descartes, 19, 20
Di gan, ngi; Roma people
(Gypsies), x
Dch chuyn h thuyt, xut x ca
thut ng; Paradigm shift, origin
of term, 42
Din n Kinh t Th gii; World
Economic Forum, 243
Dornbusch, Rudi, 239
Druckenmiller, Stan, 233
Ch mc
__________________________________________________


364



i loan; Taiwan
khng hong ti chnh; financial
crisis, 223
pht trin kinh t; economic
development, 180
thng nht vi Trung Hoa i
lc; reunification with
mainland China, 225
tnh hnh chnh tr; political
situation, 302
i Suy thoi (cc nm 1930);
Great Depression (1930s), xiv,
100, 187, 197, 203
m bo Hu dit ln nhau; Mutual
assured destruction (MAD), xv
a chnh tr, ch ngha hin thc;
Geopolitical realism, 303-305
iu kin gn cn bng, cc; Near
equilibrium conditions, 79, 81,
107
ng hi v Ho bnh; Partnership
for Peace, 341, 342
ng hi v Thnh vng;
Partnership for Prosperity, 342
c, nc; Germany
ng c kinh doanh; business
motivations, 184
tng ca th trng c phiu;
stock market rise, 199-200
c, s thng nht nc; German
reunification, 65, 193, 237

E
Einstein, thuyt tng i ca;
Einsteins theory of relativity, 16,
82
Engels, Friedrich, 92, 172
Epimenides ngi Creta;
Epimenides the Cretan, 15
ERM Xem C ch t gi
EU Xem Lin hip chu u

F
Ferghana, thung lng; Ferghana
valley, 320-322, 328, 348
Feyerabend, Paul, 42
Fidelity, 200
Fischer, Stan, 239
Fractal Mandelbrot, 78
Frankel, Jeffrey, 87
Freud, Sigmund, 13, 46
Friedman, Milton, 187, 198
Froot, Kenneth, 87

G
Gaidar, Yegor, 238, 239, 248, 249,
254
Gates, Bill, 156
Gen ch k; Selfish gene, 93-95
Genscher, Hans-Dietrich, 340
Gi khoa hc, cc nh;
Pseudoscientists, 46
Gi kim thut; Alchemy, 46
Gi thuyt bc ngu nhin;
Random walk hypothesis, 36, 74,
75, 85
Gi thuyt khoa hc; Scientific
hypothesis, 30, 39
Gi thuyt ti chnh; Financial
hypothesis, 30
Gi tr th trng; Market values,
xiii, xxvi, 53-54
i li vi gi tr x hi; vs.
social values, 138-142
Gi tr x hi; Social values, xiii,
138-163
i li cc gi tr th trng; vs.
market values, 138-142
gi tr x hi chung, cc; shared
social values, 112-113, 114
cc cng ng xc nh r; in
well-defined communities, 149
trong mt x hi giao dch; in a
transactional society, 113-115
trong mt x hi m; in an open
society, 152-163
v li ch chung; and common
interest, 141, 147, 149
v tnh phi o c ca cc th
trng ti chnh; and amorality
of financial markets, 138-141,
160
Index
__________________________________________________



365

Gi tr; Values, 53-57, 110-113
chu i li phng Ty;
Asian vs. Western, 214
cc gi tr trao i i li ni ti;
exchange vs. intrinsic values,
182-183
gi tr phi tin t; nonmonetary
values, 185
gi tr ph qut; universal
values, 134
Xem c gi tr th trng, gi tr
x hi
Giddens, Anthony, 14
Glass-Steagal, lut, bi b; Glass-
Steagal Act, repealed, 188
Gligorov, Kiro, 315
Gdel, s; Gdel numbers, 24-25
Goldfarb, Alex, 259
Gorbachev, Mikhail, 23, 237, 306-
307
Gore, Albert, 336
Grameen, Ngn hng; Grameen
Bank (Bangladesh), 163
Greenspan, Alan, 187, 223

H
Hn Quc; Korea
chnh sch kinh t; economic
policy, 202, 223
u t Nga; Russian
investments, 246
ng c kinh doanh; business
motivations, 184
IMF, cc khon vay; IMF loans,
271
khng hong ti chnh; financial
crisis, 186, 191, 222, 297, 299
pht trin kinh t; economic
development, 179, 223
Hayek, Friedrich, 117-118
H thng ngn hng; Banking
system
Chile t nhn ho ~; Chile
privatization of, 192
cng c; strengthening, 267
iu tit qu t bo him; hedge
fund regulations, 296-298
giao dch i li quan h trong;
transactions vs. relationship in,
113
khng hong tit kim-v cho
vay 1985-1989; savings-and-
loan crisis of 1985-1989, 191,
269
ngn hng trung ng quc t;
international central bank, 280
Argentin; in Argentina, 275
Hoa K; in the U.S., 99-100
quan h phn thn; reflexive
connection, 65-66
sp nm 1929 ca ~; crush of
1929, 188, 195
trong khng hong ti chnh
1997-1999; during financial
crisis of 1997-1999, 217-219
H thng t bn ch ngha Xem H
thng t bn ton cu
H thng t bn ton cu; Global
capitalist system, 167-207
bt i xng gia ngi cho vay
v ngi i vay; asymmetry
between lenders and
borrowers, 190-194
ch ngha bnh trng v;
expansionism and, 171-173
m hnh boom-bust v; boom-
bust model and, 196
m hnh Khng gio/ chu v;
Confucian/Asian model and,
201-203
nh mt ch cha hon thnh;
as an incomplete regime, 177-
181
php tng t ch; empire
analogy, 171-173
ti kinh doanh v;
entrepreneurship and, 205-206
thng li ca ch ngha t bn;
triumph of capitalism, 198-204
thuyt th trng chnh thng v;
market fundamentalism and,
196-198
tin, vai tr trong; money, role
in, 181-185
Ch mc
__________________________________________________


366

trung tm v ngoi vi, quan h
gia; center and periphery,
relationship between, xxvi,
xxvii, 168-169, 172-173
tng lai ca; future of, 195
v cc khuyn khch kinh t; and
economic incentives, xix
vai tr ca tn dng trong; credit,
role in, 185-190
Hegel, Wilhelm Friedrich, 92
Heisenberg, nguyn l bt nh;
Heisenbergs uncertainty
principle, 16, 40, 44, 45, 83
Helms, Jesse, 332, 335
Hin tng x hi, tnh phn thn
trong cc; Social phenomena,
reflexivity in, 38-40
Hip c Dayton; Dayton Accords
(1995), 318
Hip c Maastricht; Maastricht
Treaty, 340
Hip c n nh cho ng Nam
u; Stability Pact for
Shoutheastern Europe, xviii, 287,
324-329, 340, 346, 359
Hip c Warsaw; Warsaw Pact,
341
Hiu ng ca ci; Wealth effect, 200
Hoa K, chnh sch i ngoi;
United States, foreign policy, 331-
337
Hc thuyt laissez-faire,
Laissez-fairedoctrine, 196, 197,
304
Hi Quc Lin; League of Nations,
306
Holbrooke, Richard, 318
Hong Kong
h thng ngn hng v ti chnh;
banking and financial system,
216, 219
khng hong ti chnh; financial
crisis, 223, 229, 298
pht trin kinh t; economic
development, 180
Hudson, Richard, 353
Hungary
bu c dn ch 1990; democratic
elections of 1990, 192
ci cch ch cng sn; reform
communist regime, 192
dit chng Do thi; genocide of
the Jews, 107
qu ; foundation in, 104-105
trong Chin tranh Th gii II;
during World War II, 107-108

I
ICC Xem To Hnh s Quc t
IMF Xem Qu Tin t Quc t
Indonesia
IMF, cc khon vay; IMF loans,
271
khng hong ti chnh; financial
crisis, 210, 218-219, 222, 223,
268, 271, 299
pht trin kinh t; economic
development, 179
tnh hnh chnh tr; political
situation, 202-203, 328
v Ngn hng Th gii; and
World Bank, 284
Intel, 199
Internet boom, xxvii, 69-75, 77, 84,
206, 231-232
Izetbegovic, Alija, 319

J
Jefferson, Thomas, 147
Jesus Christ, 31

K
Kant, Immanuel, 122, 124, 126, 127
Kay, John, 74
Kennedy, John F., 175
Keynes, John Maynard, 45, 186,
187, 287, 300
Khai sng; Enlightment, 51, 52,
121-125
Khng nh ng hoc sai; True or
false statements, 22
Kh c x hi; Social contract,
123
Index
__________________________________________________



367

Khng gio/ chu, m hnh;
Confucian/Asian model, 201-203
Khng xc nh; Indeterminacy, 13,
15, 44
Khrushchev, Nikita, 12, 97
Khu vc phi th trng; Nonmarket
sector, 169
Khng hong Bosnia; Bosina crisis
can thip ca Lin Hip Quc;
UN intervention, xv, 307, 313,
317-318, 319, 325-326, 351
can thip nhn o;
humanitarian intervention,
317-318
Khng hong n quc t 1982;
International debt crisis of 1982,
176, 190-191, 193, 269
Khng hong ti chnh 1997-1999;
Financial crisis of 1997-1999, xiv,
xxviii, 65, 69, 74, 77, 142, 152,
170, 208-234
vai tr ca IMF trong; role of
IMF in, 219-222
s bt n nh ca ti chnh quc
t; instability of international
finance, 215-219
cc l do ca; reasons for, 194
phc hi t; recovery from, 194
s lan ra ca khng hong;
unfolding of the crisis, 222-234
Khng hong ti chnh chu;
Asian financial crisis, Xem Khng
hong ti chnh 1997-1999
Kim Dae Jung, 202, 221
Kinh doanh tin t; Currency
trading, 56, 216
Kinh t hc theo Keynes; Keynesian
economics, 197-198
Kiriyenko, Sergei, 246, 253, 258
Kissinger, Henry, 304, 331
Kohl, Helmut, 236-237
Kosovo, khng hong; crisis
can thip ca NATO; NATO
intervention, xviii, 310-311,
319-320, 327-328, 343-345
Hip c Dayton; Dayton
Accords (1995), 318
s mnh gn gi ho bnh ca
Lin Hip Quc; UN
peacekeeping mission, 317,
327
Xem c Nam T
Kosovo, Qun i Gii phng;
Kosovo Liberation Army, 318, 343
Kovalev, Sergei, 155, 261, 322
Krugman, Paul, 299
Kuhn, Thomas, 42
Kyrgyzstan, 320-321

L
Lafontaine Oscar, xiii
Li sut; Interest rates, 71, 191,
206, 223, 280
Lm lc mu m; Fertile fallacy,
xxvi, 25, 30, 31-32, 58
Lm lut, v chi theo lut;
Rulemaking, and playing by the
rules, xxvi, 153, 154
Lm tng mu m Xem Lm lc
mu m
Lee Kwan Yu, 180, 214
Leontief, Wassily, 238
L Quang Diu Xem Lee Kwan Yu
L thuyt cc h thng tin ho;
Evolutionary systems theory, 14,
16, 17, 87, 89
L thuyt cc k vng duy l;
Rational expectations theory, 59-
60, 61-62, 85, 86, 198
L thuyt cn bng; Equilibrium
theory, xiii, xxvi, 19, 45-46, 50-51
L thuyt dy giy v lch s;
Shoelace theory of history, 92
L thuyt kinh t, ph phn; Critique
of Economic Theory, 38-57
L thuyt tr chi; Game theory, 14,
87, 88, 113-114
L thuyt tng i; Theory of
relativity, 16, 82
L tr, qui tc ca; Reason, rules of,
51, 123-125
L tr, Thi i ca; Age of Reason,
345
Lch s, cc s kin; Historic
events, 12-13, 91
Ch mc
__________________________________________________


368

Lin hip chu u; European Union
(EU), xviii, 184, 287, 325, 326,
330, 337-340, 344, 349
Lin Hip Quc; United Nations
(UN)
bo v nhn quyn; human rights
protections, xvi
cc c quan c bit; specialized
agencies, 352
ci cch; reforming, xx, 306-308
i Hi ng; General
Assembly, 351-352, 354, 356
Hi ng Bo an; Security
Council, 307, 351-352, 354,
356
khng hong Bosnia v; Bosnia
crisis and, xv, 307, 313, 351
s c Somalia; Somalia incident,
307
thnh lp; establishment of, xiv,
306
ng h ca Nga; Russian support
of, 306-307
Lin minh ca cc nn dn ch;
Alliance of democracies, xx, 330:
mc ch v mc tiu ca; goals
and objectives of, xvi-xvii, 330
thnh vin ca; membership of,
xviii
Xem c Lin Minh X hi M
Lin minh qun s; Military
alliance, xvii
Lin minh X hi M; Open Society
Alliance, 330-359
Lin X; Soviet Union
s sp ca; collapse of, xxi,
xxii, 96-100, 105, 235, 236,
304, 331-332
tht bi ca ci cch kinh t;
failure of economic reform, 97-
98
vin tr nc ngoi; foreign aid,
xviii
Xem c Nga
Lipton, David, 249, 255
Lockheed, 139
Loncar, Leko, 312
London, cc th trng ti chnh;
London, financial markets, 175
London, cu lc b; London Club,
190
Long Term Capital Management
(LTCM), 81, 225, 226, 227, 228,
231, 292, 294, 296-297
Losonczy, Tamas, xxv
LTCM. Xem Long Term Capital
Management
Lut v Qui c Bin; Law of Sea
Convention, 334
Lukashenko, Alexander, 342
Luzhkov, Luri, 258
Lysenko, Trofim, 236

M
Maastricht, Hip c; Maastricht
Treaty, 340
Macedonia, tnh hnh kinh t v
chnh tr; economic and political
situation, 314-315
Machiavelli, 14
MAD Xem m bo Hu dit ln
nhau
Magic, Xem Cng ti Bo him Bo
lnh Th chp
Mahathir, Mohammed, 180-181,
202, 209-210, 214
Malaysia
chnh sch kinh t; economic
policy, 202, 229
ch ngha pht xt ; fasism in,
xi
hn ch t do thng tin; freedom
of information restricted, 180-
181
khng hong ti chnh 1997;
financial crisis of 1997, 209-
210, 216, 218, 229, 299
pht trin kinh t; economic
development, 179-180
Mandelbrot, cc fractal, 78
Markovic, Ante, 311-312
Marx, Ch ngha; Marxism, 41, 45,
47, 146, 197
Marx, Karl, 13, 45, 46, 92, 151, 172
Index
__________________________________________________



369

McConnel, Mitch, 253
Meltzer, U ban (T vn nh ch
Ti chnh Quc t), xix-xx, 266,
273-274, 281-285, 336, 346
Merriweather, John, 226
Merton, Robert, 14
Mexico
Cch mng Zapatista, 204
khng hong ti chnh 1982;
financial crisis of 1982, 66,
191
khng hong ti chnh 1994;
financial crisis of 1994, 186,
269-270, 298
tesobonos (tn phiu kho bc),
270
Michelson-Morley, th nghim;
experiment, 82
Microsoft, 199
Min in; Burma, Myanmar, 214
ch ngha pht xt ; fascism in,
xi
qu b cm ; foundation banned
in, x
Milosevic, Slobodan, 262, 310-312,
317-320, 343, 344
Milutinovic, Milan, 315
M hnh chu/ Khng gio, ci
cht ca; Asian/Confucian model,
demise of, 201-203, 211-215
M hnh boom-bust; Boom-bust
model, 64-69, 83-84, 95-96
conglomerate boom, 66-69, 80,
148
ngnh xy dng v; construction
industry and, 186
tnh hu ch ca; usefulness of,
233-234
v h thng t bn ton cu; and
global capitalist system, 196
v Internet boom, 69-75, 84
v thu hp tn dng; and
contraction of credit, 188
M hnh phng php khoa hc ca
Popper; Poppers scientific
method model, 30, 38-41, 47
Mua bn tin t; Currency trading,
56, 216
Mc Tn dng D phng Bt
thng; Contingency Credit Lines,
272-273, 277, 278
Myanmar (Burma, Min in), 214

N
Nam Hn; South Korea
chaebol (i cng ti), 211-212
khng hong ti chnh; financial
crisis, 210, 211-212
Nam Phi; South Africa
cc doanh nghip phi li nhun;
nonprofit enterprises, 162-163
qu ; foundation in, 104
Nam T; Yugoslavia
cc bi hc; lessons learned,
319-320
qu ; foundation in, 315-316
s tan r ca; disintegration of,
xxix, 304, 310-318, 340, 342
xung t sc tc ; ethnic
conflict in, 315-316
Xem c Khng hong Kosovo
NATO. Xem T chc Hip c Bc
i Ty Dng
Nazi, ch ngha; Nazism, xxi, 107-
108
Neier, Aryeh, 133
Nemtsov, Boris, 244, 259
Newton-Smith, William, 25
Nga; Russia
cc n lc ci cch kinh t;
economic reform efforts, 237-
239
cho vay thi qu; excessive
lending, 186
u t ; investments in, 244-247
u t , th nghim thi gian
th; investments in, a real-time
experiment, 247-257
h tr nghin cu khoa hc;
support of scientific research,
241-243
K hoch Shatalin; Shatalin
Plan, 238
khng hong ti chnh; financial
crisis, 222, 223, 225-231
Ch mc
__________________________________________________


370

sp ti chnh; financial
collapse, 235-264, 294-295
t nhn ho ; privatization in,
239-240
v Ngn hng Th gii; and
World Bank, 282, 284
v v n ni a; and fault on
internal debt, xxvii, 221, 225-
231, 270
vin tr nc ngoi; foreign aid,
237, 240-241
Ngn hng Anh Quc; Bank of
England, 139
Ngn hng Nht Bn; Bank of
Japan, 191
Ngn hng Thanh ton Quc t;
Bank for International
Settlements, 189
Ngn hng Th gii; World Bank
xut ci cch; reform
proposals, xix-xx, 281-286
nghin cu phn tch so snh;
comparative analysis studies,
90
nh mt c quan cp tr cp; as
a grant-giving agency, 282
thnh lp; establishment of, 174
t cch thnh vin ca Hoa K
trong; U.S membership in, 332
vai tr ca; role of, 189
vin tr nc ngoi cho Nga;
foreign aid to Russia, 241
Ngh c Canada; Canadian
fisheries, 87-88
Nghch l k ni di; Paradox of the
liar, 15
NGO. Xem T chc phi chnh ph
Ngi tham gia i li nh quan st;
Participants, vs. observer, 9-10,
19
Nguyn l bt nh; Uncertainty
principle, 16, 40, 44, 45, 83
Nguyn l ph qut, cc; Universal
principles
bo v; safeguarding, xii, xvii
tnh thch ng ca; relevance of,
120-121
Nh nc c ch quyn; Sovereign
state
v li ch quc gia; and national
interests, 303, 308, 333
xung t trong; conflicts in, xv,
302
Nh nc phc li; Welfare state,
177, 178
Nh th Thin ca gio; Catholic
Church, 31, 156
Nht Bn; Japan
ng c kinh doanh; business
motivations, 184
h thng ngn hng v ti chnh;
banking and financial system,
212-214, 297, 299
li sut; interest rates, 191
pht trin kinh t; economic
development, 179
quan h vi Hoa K; U.S.
relations, 203
suy thoi; recession, 223
trong khng hong ti chnh
chu; during Asian financial
crisis, 212-214, 222
Nhm G7; Group of Seven (G7),
251-252, 255
Northop, 139
Novgorod, Nishny (H Novgorod),
244
Nunn-Lugar, Lut, Act, 263

O
OAS. Xem T chc cc nc chu
M
OPEC. Xem T chc Cc nc Xut
khu Du m
Opening the Soviet System (Soros),
96

P
Paris, Cu lc b; Paris Club, 190
Peru, ch ngha pht xt , xi
Phi sinh, cc cng c; Derivatives,
290-295
Phn tch k thut; Technical
analysis, 78, 88-89
Index
__________________________________________________



371

Phi o c (tnh), ca cc th
trng ti chnh; Amorality, of
financial markets, 138-141, 160
Philippines, khng hong ti chnh
1997; financial crisis of 1997, 210
Phng php khoa hc. Xem M
hnh phng php khoa hc ca
Popper
Polanyi, Karl, 172
Popper, Karl, xx, xxi, 15, 103, 107,
117-118, 122, 136
ci bin x hi dn dn;
piecemeal social engineering,
309-310
Popper, m hnh phng php khoa
hc ca; Poppers scientific
method model, 30, 38-41, 47
Primakov, Yevgeni, 258
Prodi, Romano, 238, 325, 326
Putin, Vldimir, 258, 260, 261, 262,
263

Q
Qu trnh lch s, tnh phn thn
trong; Historical process,
reflexivity in, 10-13, 91-115
Qun i Gii phng Kosovo;
Kosovo Liberation Army, 318, 343
Qu (Ti tr) X hi M; Open
Society Foundations
Bosnia v Herzegovina, 314
cc nc Balkan; in the
Balkans, 311
s mnh i li t li; mission
vs. self interest, 34
v nh ngha ca x hi m;
and definition of open society,
122
Qu Khoa hc Quc t;
International Science Foundation,
241-243, 259
Qui lut ton hc; Laws of
mathematics, 24-25
Qu n nh T gi; Exchange
Stabilization Fund, 249
Qu Quantum; Quantum Fund, 74,
75, 216, 232-233
Qu thnh tch; Performace funds,
33
Qu Tin t Quc t; International
Monetary Fund (IMF)
nh hng gim st; influcence
declining, xiv, xix, xxvii, 190,
266
chnh sch cho vay quc t;
international lending policies,
152, 191, 229, 251, 272
cng c; strengthening, 332
Dn xp chung Vay; General
Arrangements to Borrow, 272-
273
Dn xp Mi Vay; New
Arrangments to Borrow, 273
khon vay cho Nga; loan to
Russia, 241, 249, 251
kin ngh ci cch; reform
proposal, 276-280
Mc tn dng D phng Bt
thng; Contingency Credit
Lines, 272-273, 277, 278
nh ngi cho vay cui cng; as
lender of last resort, 191, 273-
274
Quyn Rt c bit; Special
Drawing Rights (SDR), 273,
278
thnh lp; establishment of, 174
thiu st ca; deficiencies of,
268-269
t cch thnh vin ca Hoa K
trong; U.S. membership in, 332
vai tr trong khng hong ti
chnh 1997-1999; role of ~ in
financial crisis 1997-1999,
219-222, 268
vai tr v s mnh ca; role and
mission of, 189, 191, 268
Qu Tr cp vn Quantum;
Quantum Endowment Fund, 74
Qu t bo him; Hedge funds, 32,
55, 56, 81-82, 215-216, 296-298
Qui c v a dng Sinh hc;
Convention on Biological
Diversity, 334
Ch mc
__________________________________________________


372

Qu X hi M; Open Society Fund,
104
Quyn Rt c bit; Special
Drawing Rights (SDR), 273, 278
Quyn s hu; Property rights, 132

R
Rabouillet, Hi ngh; Conference
(1999), 316, 318
Rawls, 132
Reagan, Ronald, 65, 176, 197, 198
REIT. Xem Trust u t bt ng
sn
Rev, Istvan, 103
Richelieu, Hng y; Cardinal, xvi,
304
Robbins, Lionel, 52
Rockefeller, John D., 156
Roosevelt, Theodore, 331
Rubin, Robert, 253
Rumani, cc khon vay IMF;
Romania, IMF loans, 272
Russel, Bertrand, 15, 16
Rwanda, 308
Ryzhkov, Nikolai, 238

S
Sachs, Jeffrey, 285
Sakharov, Andrei, 237
Salomon Brothers, 226, 296
Sng kin X hi M cho Nam chu
Phi; Open Society Initiative for
Southern Africa (OSISA), 158
Schmelyov, Nikolai, 264
Schutz, Alfred, 14
Sen, Amartya, xviii, 309, 346
Serbia, qu ; foundation in, x
Singapore, pht trin kinh t;
economic development, 179
Sinh hc tin ho; Evolutionary
biology, 94
Slabbert, Frederik van Zyl, 158
Slovakia, phn khng p bc;
resistance to oppression, ix
Solana, Javier, 325, 340
Solow, Robert, 74, 82
Somalia, can thip ca Lin Hip
Quc; UN intervention, 307
Soros Fund Management, 208, 209,
232, 234, 296
Steinberg, Saul, 67
Stepashin, Sergei, 260
S kin lch s; Historic events, 12-
13, 91
S kin nhm chn/hng ngy;
Humdrum/everyday events, 12-13,
26, 28, 91
Suharto, 202, 214, 221, 223
Surroi, Veton, 316
Svyazinvest, tp on (cng ti m
v in thoi ca Nga), 244-245,
247, 248, 259, 260

T
Ti kinh doanh, v h thng t bn
ton cu; Entrepreneurship, and
global capitalist system, 205-206
Tajikistan, 320-321
Thi t ph bnh; Self-critical
attitude, 33
Thi Lan; Thailand
cc khon vay IMF; IMF loans,
271
chnh sch kinh t; economic
policy, 202, 223
khng hong ti chnh 1997;
financial crisis of 1997, 208,
210, 216, 218, 299
tnh hnh chnh tr; political
situation, 180
tnh hnh ti chnh; financial
situation, 287
Thn phn con ngi; Human
conditions, 26
Thatcher, Margaret, 176, 198, 236
The Alchemy of Finance (Soros),
xxv, xxviii, 48, 64, 66, 69, 77, 84
The Crisis of Global Capitalis:
Open Society Endangered (Soros),
xxvii, xxviii, xxix, 66, 227-228
The Economic Consequences of Mr.
Churchill (Keynes), 287
Index
__________________________________________________



373

Th lng nan ca phm nhn;
Prisoners dilemma, 87, 89, 113-
114
Th trng c phiu; Stock market
ch s Nikkei Nht Bn; Japan
Nikkei index, 213
n by vn c phn; equity
leveraging, 65
lun v; thesis about, 77
c; in Germany, 199-200
Thu in; in Sweden, 100
phn tch k thut v; technical
analysis and, 78-79, 88-89
sp nm 1929; crash of 1929,
188
sp nm 1987; crash of 1987,
189
v cc qu tng t; and mutual
funds, 200-201
Th trng ti chnh; Financial
markets
l phi o c; as amoral, 138-
141, 160
nh mt qu trnh lch s; as a
historical process, xxvi
s n nh ca; stability of, xiii
tnh phn thn trong; reflexivity
in, 58-90
Th trng tin t; Currency
markets
cc vng c v thin; vicious and
virtuous circles, 65
tnh d bin ng; volatility,
290-295
v qu trnh boom-bust; and
boom-bust process, 69
Thin cha, o; Christianity, 57,
123
Thin kin ca ngi tham gia;
Participants bias, 10-11, 60, 61-
64
Thin kin thnh hnh; Prevailing
bias, 10-11
v bt cn bng ng; and
dynamic disequilibrium, 80
v conglomerate boom, 67-68
v xu hng thnh hnh; and
prevailing trend, 67-68, 234
Thiu tng ng; Lack of
correspondence, 8-9, 20, 26, 93
Tho c Basle 1988; Basle Accord
of 1988, 189, 278, 297
Thi i C th Sai; Age of
Fallibility, 345, 354
Thi i L tr; Age of Reason, 345
Thng nht nc c; German
reunification, 65, 193, 237
Thc ti, v t duy; Reality, and
thinking, 3-37
Thu in, th trng c phiu;
Sweden, stock market, 100
Thuyt th trng chnh thng;
Market fundamentalism, xii, xiii-
xiv, xxvi, 41, 143-144
v ch ngha cng sn; and
communism, 118
v h thng t bn ton cu; and
global capitalist system, 196-
198
Thuyt tng i ca Einstein;
Einsteins theory of relativity, 16,
82
Tin t, ng tin; Currency
ba ng tin chnh; three major
curencies, 195
bin ng; fluctuation in, 193
c ch t gi; exchange rate
mechanism (ERM), 193, 289,
300
h thng t gi; exchange rate
system, 286-290
Tin t, kinh doanh, mua bn;
Currency trading, 56, 216
Tin t, th trng Xem Th trng
tin t
Tin; money
chc nng chnh ca; major
fuctions of, 181
vai tr ca ~ trong h thng t
bn ton cu; role in global
capitalist system, 181-185
Tn dng, trong h thng t bn
ton cu; Credit, in global
capitalist system, 185-190
Tnh c th sai; Fallibility, xxii,
xxviii, 25, 26-27, 309
Ch mc
__________________________________________________


374

nh mt t tng ph qut; as a
universal idea, 121
v cc s kin lch s; and
historical events, 93
Xem c Thi i ca Tnh c th
sai, Tnh c th sai trit
Tnh c th sai trit ; Radical
fallibility, xxv, xxvi, 27-32, 47, 75
Tnh o c; Morality
mnh lnh o c; categorical
imperatives, 126, 127
cc nguyn l ph qut v;
universal principles of, 124-
125
Tnh trng gn cn bng; Near
equilibrium conditions, 79, 81,
107
Tnh trng xa cn bng; Far-from-
equilibrium conditions, xxvi, 64,
79, 80, 81, 107-108, 148, 208
Tnh phn thn; Reflexivity, xxii,
xxv, xxvi, xxviii, 7-9
cc hm nhn thc v tham gia;
cognitive and participating
functions, 7-8, 11, 41
trong cc hin tng x hi; in
social phenomena, 38-40
trong cc th trng ti chnh; in
financial markets, 56-90
trong khung cnh; in context, 14-
21
v cc nh khoa hc x hi; and
social scientists, 41-49
v qu trnh lch s; and
historical process, 10-13, 91-
115
xut x ca t; origin of term, 7
Tinh thn kinh doanh Xem Ti kinh
doanh
T chc An ninh v Hp tc chu
u; Organization for Security and
Cooperation in Europe (OSCE),
318, 344
T chc cc nc chu M;
Organization of American States
(OAS), 347
T chc Cc nc Xut khu Du
m; Organization of Petroleum
Exporting Countries (OPEC),
174-176
T chc Hip c Bc i Ty
Dng; NATO, North Atlantic
Treaty Organization, xvii, 341-
344
trong Chin tranh Lnh; during
the Cold War, 332
m rng; expansion, 341-342,
348
can thip vo Kosovo;
intervention in Kosovo, xviii,
310-311, 319-320, 327-328,
343-345
T chc Hp tc v Pht trin Kinh
t; Organization for Economic
Cooperation and Development
(OECD), 297
T chc phi chnh ph, cc;
Nongovermental organizations
(NGOs), 161-162, 282, 283, 349,
357-358
T chc Thng mi Th gii;
World Trade Organization (WTO),
xv, xx, 225, 332, 348, 349-350,
357
To Hnh s Quc t; International
Criminal Court (ICC), 334
Trch nhim x hi, trong kinh
doanh; Social responsibility in
business, 161
Tractatus Logico-Philosophicus
(Wittgenstein), 16
Trit l o c; Moral philosophy,
125-127
Tr chi, l thuyt; Game theory,
14, 87, 88, 113-114
Trung Quc; China
ci cch kinh t; economic
reform, 202, 203
doanh nghip quc doanh; state-
owned enterprises (SOEs), 225
h thng ngn hng; banking
system, 216
Index
__________________________________________________



375

kim sot thng tin; controls on
information, 181
Ni lon Ngha ho on; Boxer
Rebellion, 204, 275
thm st Qung trng Thin An
Mn; Tiananmen Square
massacre, 224
tnh hnh kinh t; economic
situation, 223, 224-225, 298
v Ngn hng Th gii; and
World Bank, 282
Trung tm Nghin cu Chnh sch
u chu; Centre for European
Policy Studies (CEPS), 325
Trust u t bt ng sn, cc; Real
estate investment trusts (REITs),
77
T duy, v thc ti; Thinking, and
reality, 3-37
T li, nguyn l v; Self-interest,
principle of, 304
T thin; Philantropy, 33-34
Tudjman, Franjo, 314, 317, 319
Tuyn b t dn chiu; Self-referent
statements, 15, 17, 21
Tuyn b v gi tr; Value
statements, 22
Tuyn ngn Ph qut v Quyn Con
Ngi; Universal Declaration of
Human Rights, 303
Two Sources of Religion and
Morality (Bergson), xx

U
Ukraine
khng tr c khon vay; loan
defaults, 248
khng hong ti chnh; financial
crisis, 222
v tham nhng chnh tr; and
political corruption, 150
UN. Xem Lin Hip Quc
ng x con ngi; Human behavior
gen ch k; selfish gene, 93-95
gii thch khoa hc v; scientific
explanation of, 13
ng x thch nghi; adaptive
behavior, 14, 87, 88, 90
ng x t tng cng; Self-
reinforcing behavior, 64-65
U ban chu u; European
Commission, 325, 338-339
U ban Meltzer Xem Meltzer, U
ban
U ban Quan h i ngoi; Council
on Foreign Relations, 278-279
U ban T vn nh ch Ti chnh
Quc t; International Financial
Institution Advisory Commission.
Xem U ban Meltzer.
Uzbekistan, 320-321

V
Vn n khng; Free rider
problem, 154-155
Vin Hn lm Khoa hc Hungary;
Hungarian Academy of Science,
104
Vin tr nc ngoi; Foreign aid,
237, 240-241, 322-324
Vin X hi M, M; Open
Society Institute, in the U.S., ix
Vit Nam, Chin tranh; Vietnam
War, 304, 331
Vinik, Jeff, 200
Volcker, Paul, 287-288, 292, 293

Vn; Capital
di chuyn t do ca; free
movement of, x, 167-168, 174
kim sot ~; controls on, 175,
298-300
Vng quc Anh; United Kingdom,
307

W
Wahid, Abdurrahman, 203
Waldegrave, William, 236
Warsaw, Hip c; Warsaw Pact,
341
Wesphalia, Hip c 1648; Treaty
of (1648), 303
Wilson, Woodrow, 331
Wittgenstein, Ludwig, 16
Wolfensohn, Jim, 282, 283
Wrner, Manfred, 342
Ch mc
__________________________________________________


376

X
Xa cn bng, iu kin, (tnh trng)
Xem Tnh trng xa cn bng
X hi ng i li x hi m;
Closed society vs. open society,
103-109
X hi giao dch; Transactional
society, 113-115
X hi m, Lin minh; Open
Society Alliance, 330-359
X hi m; Open society
cc iu kin c th ca;
specific conditions of, 133
nh ngha; definition, 130
xut x ca thut ng; origin of
term, xx
































Y
Yahoo!, 71
Yakovlev, Alexander, 264
Yavlinsky, Grigory, 238, 234, 258
Yeltsin, Boris, 238, 243-244, 246,
255, 256, 257, 259, 260, 261, 263,
307

Z
Zimbabwe, ch ngha pht xt ;
fascism in, xi
Zimmerman, Warren, 312
Zyuganov, Genadi, 243






2000 T SCH SOS
2


xut bn:

1. Kornai Jnos: Con ng dn ti nn kinh t th
trng
Hi Tin hc Vit Nam, 2001
Nh Xut bn Vn ho Thng tin 2002

2. Kornai Jnos: H thng X hi ch ngha
Nh Xut bn Vn ho Thng tin 2002

3. Kornai Jnos, Karen Eggleston: Chm sc sc kho
cng ng
Nh Xut bn Vn ho Thng tin 2002

Sp xut bn:

4. Soros George: Gi kim thut ti chnh
5. Hernando de Soto: S b n ca T bn
6. Joseph E. Stiglitz: Ch ngha x hi i v u?
7. Hayek F. A.: Con ng dn ti ch nng n
8. Soros G.: X hi m




T SCH SOS
2


GEORGE SOROS, X HI M


Cun The Crisis of Global Capitalism [Khng hong ca Ch
ngha T bn Ton cu, v l tin thn ca cun sch ny]
tr thnh mt cun sch best seller trn bnh din quc t v
lp tc tr thnh kinh in; mt cun sch phi c c bi
bt k ai quan tm n cc lc lng th trng phc tp ch
ng nn kinh t ton cu ca chng ta v to ra c s thnh
vng ln s bt n nh. By gi Soros a ra ci nhn mi
v khiu khch vo nhng l l m ng a ra trong cun sch
, a nhng din bin mi nht v kinh t v chnh tr ton
cu vo phn tch ca mnh. ng ch ra nhng dn xp kinh t
v chnh tr ca chng ta mt ng b ra sao. Nhn ra rng cc
nh ch hin thi ca chng ta nm di s thng tr ca cc
quc gia c ch quyn, ng xut mt lin minh x hi
m vi mc ch kp l c v cho x hi m tng quc gia
ring bit v t nn mng cho mt x hi m ton cu. Nhm
hng n tm nhn y cm hng ca ng, Soros by t mt
ci nhn p ph thnh tng v th gii, ci nhn hng
dn ng c trong vic kim tin ln trong vic tiu s tin
cho mng li cc Qu X hi M ca ng. Cun sch ny
tng kt cng trnh c i ca mt con ngi c bit. George
Soros l nh qun l qu gii nht trong lch s, mt chnh
khch ti ba khng mang quc tch no, v mt nh t tng
c o.

GEORGE SOROS ng u Soros Fund Management v l
ngi sng lp mng li cc qu h tr cc x hi m.
c c th gii bit n v s nhy bn ti chnh v s cam
kt chnh tr ca ng, Soros l tc gi ca nhiu cun sch
bestseller trc y bao gm The Alchemy of Finance v The
Crisis of Global Capitalism c th c bng ting Vit.