Tips To Perform A Ram Study Webinar Presentation - tcm4-539661

Victor Borges, RAM Product Manager
Tips to perform a RAM study

DNV Software - Webinar material
Feb 28 2013
Det Norske Veritas AS. All rights reserved.
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Agenda
What is advanced RAM analysis?
Quantitative picture of Performance
DNV solution
Top 5 tips to perform an effective RAM Study
Defeat is ensured for the one who beforehand does not have all things in order,
people call it misfortune. While victory is ensured for the one who beforehand has
learned to be prepared, people call it luck.
Roald Amundsen
We call it RAM!
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DNV calls it
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What is Advanced RAM
Analysis?
What is Advanced RAM analysis?
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What is Advanced RAM analysis?
RAM is a methodology used to predict asset performance for a given configuration in terms of
Reliability, Availability and Maintainability
Our products go beyond traditional RAM analysis by adding capabilities related to operations
tailored to the Oil and Gas industry which provides as result utilisation and production
efficiency.
Takes into consideration all factors affecting production in order to forecast performance over
the life of the asset
Examples of factors are Equipment Performance, Redundancy, Maintenance Strategies,
Logistics, Demand Requirements etc.
Simulation
How it works
- The user specifies a configuration in terms of
equipment reliability and dependencies, as
well as the associated asset operations
- By discrete event simulation using a Monte
Carlo method, a number of life cycles given
the specified configuration are simulated
- By performing a large enough number of life
cycle simulations a reliable prediction of the
asset performance is produced
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The benefits with simulation are
- It can be used with process complexities
and uncertainties where exact analytical
solutions are not possible
- It allows for easy extension of the analysis
to include large inventories & sensitivity
studies (what-ifs)
- It highlights the weak links in the
configuration (equipment criticality) and
allows you to optimise asset configuration
and operations
Why are we doing this?
Slide 7
Maximizing
Plant efficiency / reliability levels
Product generation/throughput
Minimizing
manning costs
materials costs
maintenance work load
transportation and support
downtime affecting revenue/operating costs
whilst
Maintaining
contractual nominations
safety case requirements
and
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Quantitative picture of
Performance
Quantitative Picture Of Performance
Slide 9
Reliability
Equipment performance data
(failure frequencies)
System configuration
Maintainability
Maintenance resources
Shift constraints
Mobilization delays
Spares constraints
Availability
Equipment/System uptime
Availability
Slide 10
Pump on
Pump failed
Pump on
Pump failed
Pump on
Actual
Pump always on
Potential
Time
Aua||ah|||ty =
Actua|
Putent|a|
1%
Slide 11
Reliability
Maintainability
Shift constraints
Mobilization delays
Spares constraints
Availability
Operability
Plant interdependencies
Plant re-start times
Production/demand rates
Storage Size
Tanker Fleet and Operations
Production Efficiency
Achieved production
Production losses
Criticality
Contract shortfalls
Delayed cargoes
Production Efficiency (Utilization)
Slide 12
Time
Production Rate
Pump always on
Potential
Volume
Pump on
Pump failed
Pump on
Pump degraded
Pump on
Actual
Volume
Pruduttun eIItteny =
Actua|
Putent|a|
1%
Slide 13
Reliability
Maintainability
Shift constraints
Mobilization delays
Spares constraints
Availability
Operability
Plant interdependencies
Plant re-start times
Production/demand rates
Storage Size
Tanker Fleet and Operations
Unit Costs/Revenue
Product price
Man-hour/spares costs
Transport costs
Discount rates
Net Present Value
Lost Profit Opportunity
Achieved production
Production losses
Criticality
Contract shortfalls
Delayed cargoes
Operational Expenditure (OPEX) / Lost Revenue
Slide 14
Maintenance
Expenditure
Lost Profit Opportunity
Pump on
Pump off
Pump on
Pump degraded
Pump on
Actual
Volume
Lost Revenue
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Products
Maros
Maintainability Availability Reliability
Operability Simulation program
Tool of choice for analysis of upstream and
LNG assets for the past 25 years
In use since 1984 with continuous
development efforts
Provides functionality for modelling of all
issues pertinent to process equipment and
units in the upstream market
Features include time varying production
flow profile, multiple products, production
recovery techniques, tanker export
operations, financial modelling and more
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Taro
Total Asset Review & Optimization
Specialised for modelling of refinery
complexes
Developed since in 1995
Provides capability for the integration of
shipping and storage into performance
models
Features include multiple streams, unit
interdependencies, yield rates, blending
rules, advanced storage and more
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Top 5 tips to perform an effective
RAM Study
Top 5 tips to perform an effective RAM Study
1. Definition
- Define the objectives and scope
- Define boundaries for the study
2. Collecting
- Collate all required data
3. Preparation
- Prepare a study basis
- Build the model in stages
- Verify model operation at each stage
4. Results
- Compare over all results with expectations
- Perform sensitivity analyses
- Generate reports
5. Document and archive model files
Slide 19
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Definition
Define Objectives and Scope
Most common objective is what production efficiency can we expect from this
design
Some other examples:
- What reliability should we specify for the export compressor?
- What platform availability gives an acceptable overall security of oil supply?
- What is the most cost effective way to improve security of gas supply?
- What is the impact of alternative maintenance strategies?
Slide 21
Define Boundaries For The Study
Model core system
Can external influences be synthesised or must they be explicitly included
Can we estimate the influence of external factors? If so we can decide which to
include and which to exclude
A good model contains the minimum amount of detail that still yields a valid answer
i.e. most complex is not necessarily the best
Slide 22
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Collecting
Collate All Required Data
What is unique to this study??
Reservoir data
Gas sales agreements
Basis of design document
PFDs, P&IDs, schematics, cause and effect charts
Maintenance logistics and strategies
Reliability data
Etc.
Slide 24
Reliability data
Getting the right data is a crucial step in a RAM Study
Sources
- Generic Reliability Data
- In-House Reliability Data
- OREDA Offshore Reliability Data
- AEA Reliability Databank
- European Reliability Industry Data Bank Handbook (EIReDA)
- RAC Reliability Data books
- CCPS Process Equipment Reliability Database (PERD)
- Cox, Lees & Ang
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Generic data Versus In-house data
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Data Sources Advantages Disadvantages
Generic-published Easy to obtain
Non-specific boundaries and
assumptions unknown
Generic-applied
Can be produced relatively
quickly
Requires detailed knowledge of
proposed application and
factors influencing reliability
Collected-maintenance data Uses existing records
Many not have data in the
correct form or detail required,
or sufficient amount of data
Collected-formal scheme
Very detailed reliability
parameters can be obtained on
specific items and in correct
form
Long term project in order to
collect sufficient experience
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Preparation
Prepare The Study Basis
Assumptions
Objectives
Description of model to be built
Reliability Block Diagrams (RBDs)
Data Register
Slide 28
Typical Model Development Path
Slide 29
Final model runs
Run model, review results, reconfigure
Operational considerations
Maintenance strategies
Maintenance resources - manpower, spares, tools
Equipment configuration and reliability data
Flow/Reservoir Deliverability
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Results
Compare Results With Expectations
Can the results be explained?
Are there any areas of unexpectedly low or high criticality?
If necessary generate and check log files to investigate further
Slide 31
Analysis Results
Availability (uptime)
Production Statistics
Complex / Platform / Equipment Criticality
Frequency of Shutdowns
Maintenance Resource Expenditure
Utilization
Slide 32
RAM Applications (Study Types)
Conceptual Design Screening Studies
Facilities Optimization
Detailed Engineering
Development of Operations Reference Plan / Asset Reference Plan
Maintenance Strategy Evaluation (RCM)
Manning Studies
Workload Assessments (e.g. Vessel utilization)
Risk Analysis (e.g. Well Risk)
Slide 33
RAM Applications (Asset Types)
Subsea (Remote & Deep water)
Normally Unmanned Installations (NUIs)
Minimum Manned Platforms
Central Processing Facilities
Onshore Oil & Gas Processing Terminals
LNG Plants
Refinery Unit and Site Optimisation
Co-generation Power Plants
Petrochemical Plants
Slide 34
Life Cycle Performance Analysis
Analysis is not just about producing one availability figure, which can then be quoted
as the performance figure for the development.
Analysis is about a picture of performance (transparency) which the project team can
use to make decisions
Slide 35
Life Cycle Performance Analysis
Performance assessed to a number of criteria - build a picture of performance
Transparency of performance criteria leads to confidence in the assessment
Analysis is best in a comparative assessment of competing designs or operating
scenarios
Utilize sensitivity scenarios to understand risk or uncertainty in the performance
figures
Where absolute figures are required some degree of calibration or benchmarking is
required
Slide 36
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For further interest, trial version, software demo or a
quotation please do not hesitate to contact us:
software.marketing@dnv.com
Best regards,
DNV Software
Safeguarding life, property
and the environment
www.dnv.com
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Victor Borges, RAM Product Manager

Tips to perform a RAM study

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