Global Warming:

The IPCCs Failing Paradigm

of a Sensitive Climate System
Dr. Roy W. Spencer
Principal Research Scientist
The University of Alabama in Huntsville The University of Alabama in Huntsville
25 September 2014
Climate Impact of Adding CO
2
to
the Atmosphere
~1% decrease in the ability of the Earth to cool to outer space (energy imbalance)
=> direct warming of ~1 deg. C from 2XCO2 (based upon theory, high confidence)
=> indirect magnification of warming (2 to 3X, based upon feedback theory, low conf.)
Change in weather patterns?
=> VERY uncertain, still no observational evidence for increased storminess => VERY uncertain, still no observational evidence for increased storminess
=> uncertainty is because natural variability is so great
IPCC hindcasts of warming have largely failed, both
for GLOBAL AVERAGE conditions
and REGIONAL conditions.
Ocean temperature increase since the 1950s can be explained* with:
1) IPCC assumed forcings (mostly increasing CO2),
2) low climate sensitivity [1.3 deg. C], and
3) more frequent El Ninos causing radiative imbalance
*Spencer, R. W., and W. D. Braswell, 2014: The role of ENSO in global ocean
temperature changes during 1955-2011 simulated with a 1D climate model.
Asia-Pac. J. Atmos. Sci., 50(2), 229-237.
Why have models failed?
(my favored explanations)
1. Climate sensitivity is lower than modelers assume
(e.g. cooling effect of clouds increasing with warming)?
2. Extra energy being stored in the deep oceans
(increased ocean mixing cooling the surface)?
Some of both?
The climate system isnt static anyway,
~1% energy imbalances might be common
1. IPCC models have been based upon the
assumption of a sensitive climate system
2. Observations suggest the climate system
in not as sensitive as modelers assume
The Bottom Line
3. If climate sensitivity is high, and the extra
energy is temporarily being sequestered in
the deep ocean, then RAPID WARMING of
surface temps. must resume at some point.