B GIO DC V O TO

TRNG I HC KINH T TP. H CH MINH

TRN VIT HUY

GII PHP HON THIN THM NNH TI

CHNH D N U T V KINH DOANH
BT NG SN PHC HP
CHUYN NGNH

: KINH T TI CHNH NGN HNG

M S

: 60.31.12

LUN VN THC S KINH T

NGI HNG DN KHOA HC:
TS. TRN THN K

TP. H CH MINH NM 2009

LI CAM OAN
Ti xin cam oan, y l cng trnh nghin cu ca ring ti. Cc
s liu, kt qu trong lun vn cha tng c ai cng b trong bt
k lun vn no khc.
TC GI LUN VN

TRN VIT HUY

DANH MC CC T VIT TT
CR Capitalization Rate: T sut vn ho
DEP Depreciation: Khu hao
DPP Discounted Payback Period: Thi gian thu hi vn c chit khu
EBIT Earning Before Interest and Tax: Li nhun trc thu v li
EBITDA - Earning Before Tax, Depreciation and Amortization: Li nhun trc
thu, li vay v khu hao
EPS Earning Per Share: Thu nhp trn mi c phn
IRR Internal Rate Of Return: Sut sinh li ni b
NCF Net Operating Cash Flow: Dng tin hot ng thun sau thu
NPV Net Present Value: Hin gi thun
NWC Net Working Capital Vn lun chuyn
OEAT Operating Earning After Tax: Li nhun hot ng sau thu
OEBT Operating Earning Before Tax: Li nhun hot ng trc thu
PI Profitability Index: Ch s sinh li
PP Payback Period: Thi gian thu hi vn
WACC Weighted Average Cost of Capital: Chi ph s dng vn bnh qun
CBRE CB Richard Ellis
UBND U Ban Nhn Dn
TP.HCM Thnh Ph H Ch Minh
SWOT Strenght, Weakness, Opportinities and Threat Phn tch im mnh, im
yu, c hi v thch thc
TNDN Thu Nhp Doanh Nghip
TNCN Thu Nhp C Nhn

DANH MC CC BNG BIU

Bng 2.1 Thng s c bn v d n ............................................................................. 22
Bng 2.2 Vn u t d kin ....................................................................................... 23
Bng 2.3 Nhu cu v gi cho thu cao c vn phng ti TP.HCM............................ 25
Bng 2.4 Ngun cung cao c vn phng ti TP.HCM................................................. 26
Bng 2.5 Lch s gi cho thu cao c vn phng ti TP.HCM.................................... 27
Bng 2.6 Phn tch SWOT ca d n........................................................................... 40
Bng 2.7 So snh EBIT ca mi mt vung khi u t vo cc hng mc khc
nhau .............................................................................................................................. 43
Bng 2.8 Nhng thng s c bn ca d n................................................................. 44
Bng 2.9 K hoch pht trin ca d n....................................................................... 45
Bng 2.10 Bng khu hao ca d n vi phng n 2..................................... ........... 49
Bng 2.11 Bng khu hao ca d n trong 10 nm u vi phng n 1 ................... 50
Bng 2.12 Thu nhp ca d n trong 10 nm u i vi phng n 1 ...................... 55
Bng 2.13 Thu nhp ca d n i vi phng n 2 ................................................... 56
Bng 2.14 Bng 2.14 Phn tch nhy bi nhn t bin i chi ph xy dng v
gi bn cn h nh hng ln NPV.............................................................................. 56
Bng 2.15 Phn tch nhy bi nhn t bin i chi ph xy dng v gi bn
cn h nh hng ln IRR............................................................................................ 56
Bng 2.16 Phn tch tnh hung ca d n................................................................... 59

DANH MC CC HNH V - THN

Hnh 2.1 Lch s gi bn cn h cao cp...................................................................... 25
Hnh 2.2 Lch s ngun cung vn phng ti TP........................................................... 26
Hnh 2.3 Ngun cung th trng bn l ti khu vc Chu ........................................ 28
Hnh 2.4 Thu nhp trung bnh hng thng ti TP.HCM xt theo khu vc.................. 30
Hnh 2.5 Thu nhp trung bnh hng thng ti TP.HCM xt theo nm........................ 31
Hnh 2.6 Doanh thu bn l ti TP.HCM....................................................................... 32
Hnh 2.7 Ngun cung bn l hin ti ti TP.HCM....................................................... 33
Hnh 2.8 Ngun cung bn l trong tng lai ti TP.HCM........................................... 34

Hnh 2.9 Lch s gi cho thu mt bng bn l ti Tp.HCM ....................................... 35

Hnh 2.10 Khch sn 3-5 sao ti Tp.HCM................................................................... 36
Hnh 3.1 th d bo dng ngn lu rng ca d n................................................ 64
Hnh 3.2 th d bo IRR ca d n......................................................................... 65
Hnh 3.3 Xc nh t l chc chn NPV ca d n...................................................... 66
Hnh 3.4 Xc nh t l chc chn IRR ca d n ....................................................... 66

MC LC
CHNG 1: C S L LUN V THM NNH TI CHNH CA CC D N
U T V KINH DOANH BT NG SN PHC HP ..........................................1
1.1 Tng quan v thNm nh d n u t v kinh doanh bt ng sn phc hp.................1
1.1.1

Mt s khi nim................................................................................................1

1.1.1.1 Bt ng sn phc hp ........................................................................................1

1.1.1.2 D n kinh doanh bt ng sn ...........................................................................1
1.1.1.3 D n u t bt ng sn ...................................................................................1
1.1.1.4 ThNm nh ti chnh cc d n u t v kinh doanh bt ng sn phc hp.....2
1.1.2

c im ca bt ng sn phc hp v thNm nh ti chnh cc d n u t

v kinh doanh bt ng sn phc hp .............................................................................3

1.1.3 Qui trnh thNm nh mt d n u t v kinh doanh bt ng sn .......................3
1.2 Tm quan trng ca vic thNm nh ti chnh mt d n u t bt ng sn.................5
1.3 Cc ch tiu s dng thNm nh ti chnh ......................................................................5
1.4 Phn loi cc d n u t v kinh doanh bt ng sn phc hp....................................6
1.4.1 Da trn tnh cht m rng hay thay th ca d n................................................7
1.4.1.1 D n m rng ................................................................................................7
1.4.1.2 D n thay th .................................................................................................7
1.4.1.3 Cc d n pht sinh p ng cc yu cu php l, cc tiu chuNn sc khe
v an ton. ...................................................................................................................7
1.4.2 Da trn mi tng quan kinh t ca cc d n.....................................................7
1.4.2.1 Cc d n c lp ln nhau .............................................................................7
1.4.2.2 Cc d n ph thuc ln nhau .........................................................................8
1.4.2.3 Cc d n loi tr ln nhau .............................................................................8
1.5 N hng nhn t nh hng n thNm nh ti chnh d n u t bt ng sn phc phc
hp 8
1.5.1 Phn tch th trng ca sn phNm .........................................................................8
1.5.2 Phn tch SWOT ca khu t .................................................................................8
1.5.3 La chn cc hng mc thch hp u t ..........................................................9
1.5.4 Xc nh phng n kinh doanh sn phNm sau khi xy dng xong .......................9
1.5.5 p dng phng php hp l xc nh dng ngn lu ca d n .....................9
1.5.5.1 Khi nim dng ngn lu ..............................................................................10

1.5.5.2 Vai tr ca dng ngn lu .............................................................................10

1.5.5.3 Cc nguyn tc xc nh dng ngn lu........................................................10
1.5.5.4 nh gi dng tin ca d n ........................................................................11
1.5.6 La chn t sut chit khu ph hp....................................................................13
1.5.6.1 Khi nim t sut chit khu .........................................................................13
1.5.6.2 Cc ch tiu s dng lm t sut chit khu..................................................14
1.6 Phn tch ri ro d n u t v kinh doanh bt ng sn ..............................................17
1.6.1 Mc ch ca phn tch ri ro...............................................................................17
1.6.2 Cc phng php phn tch ri ro ........................................................................18
1.6.2.1 Phn tch nhy Sensitivity Analysis......................................................18
1.6.2.2 Phn tch tnh hung Scenario Analysis.....................................................18
1.6.2.3 Phn tch m phng - Monte Carlo Simulation ............................................19
KT LUN CHNG I .....................................................................................................20
CHNG 2: THM NNH TI CHNH D N U T V KINH DOANH BT
NG SN PHC HP TRONG THC T..................................................................21
2.1 S lc v d n : ............................................................................................................21
2.1.1 Tng quan v khu phc hp Dynamic Plaza ti qun Tn Bnh TP.HCM. .........21
2.1.2 nh hng u t d n......................................................................................21
2.1.3 N hng thng s c bn ban u ca d n...........................................................22
2.1.4 Vn u t d kin v phng n huy ng vn u t cho d n......................22
2. 2 N ghin cu th trng v xut pht trin d n.........................................................23
2.2.1 Tng quan v th trng bt ng sn TP.HCM thi gian qua v hin ti...........23
2.2.2 Th trng cn h bn ti TP.HCM......................................................................24
2.2.3 Th trng cao c vn phng ti TP.HCM ...........................................................25
2.2.4 Th trng trung tm thng mi ti TP.HCM ....................................................28
2.2.5 Th trng khch sn 3-5 sao ti TP.HCM...........................................................35
2.3 Phn tch v thNm nh ti chnh khu phc hp Dynamic Tn Bnh .............................39
2.3.1

Phn tch SWOT ca d n .......................................................................................40

2.3.2 xut cc hng mc u t ........................................................................................41

2.3.3 Phn tch ti chnh v xc nh kt qu u t..............................................................44
2.3.3.1 N hng thng s c bn......................................................................................44
2.3.3.2 Tin thc hin d n .....................................................................................44

2.3.3.3 Xc nh dng tin ca d n ............................................................................45

2.3.3.4 Thay i doanh thu ca d n (

R)................................................................45

2.3.3.4.1 Cn h bn...............................................................................................45
2.3.3.4.2 Cao c vn phng....................................................................................46
2.3.3.4.3 Trung tm thng mi.............................................................................46
2.3.3.4.4 Ch u xe...............................................................................................47
2.3.4

Thay i chi ph hot ng ca d n (

2.3.5

Thay i chi ph khu hao (

O) ..................................................47

Dep) ................................................................48

2.3.5.1 Phng n tt c cc hng mc u c bn ht sau khi xy dng ............49

2.3.5.2 Phng n m hng mc cn h bn, vn phng, khu thng mi v u xe
cho thu .....................................................................................................................49
2.3.6 Thay i li nhun hot ng thun sau thu (

OEAT) ...................................51

2.3.7 Vn lun chuyn cn thit cho d n ...................................................................51

2.3.8 Xc nh dng tin hot ng thun ca d n (N CF).........................................52
2.3.9

Kt qu kinh doanh ca d n..........................................................................52

2.3.9.1

Phng n 1: Cho thu hng mc vn phng, trung tm thng mi v

ch u xe. ................................................................................................................52
2.3.9.2
2.3.10

Phng n 2: Bn li tt c cc hng mc sau khi u t xy dng.........53

N hn xt kt qu t c ............................................................................53

2.3.11 Phn tch ri ro ca d n...................................................................................53

2.3.11.1 Phn tch nhy (Sensitivity Analysis).........................................................53
2.3.11.2 Phn tch tnh hung (Scenario Analysis) .......................................................57
2.3.11.3 Phn tch m phng (Monte Carlo Slim) ........................................................59
2.3.11.3.1 nh ngha bin gi thuyt .......................................................................59
2.3.12.3.2 nh ngha bin d bo ............................................................................62
2.3.12.3.3 Chy m phng ........................................................................................63
2.3.12.3.4 Din dch kt qu m phng bng th d bo .....................................63
2.3.12.3.5 ngha th d bo trong phn tch ri ro............................................65
KT LUN CHN G II .............................................................................................66
CHNG 3: GII PHP NHM HON THIN PHNG PHP THM NNH
TI CHNH D N U T V KINH DOANH BT NG SN PHC HP ....68
3.1

nh hng pht trin th trng bt ng sn nc ta trong thi gian ti ........68

3.2 Gii php hon thin phng php thNm nh ti chnh d n u t v kinh doanh bt
ng sn phc hp .................................................................................................................69
3.3 Kin ngh hon thin phng php thNm nh ti chnh d n u t v kinh doanh bt
ng sn phc hp .................................................................................................................74
KT LUN CHNG III ..................................................................................................76
KT LUN CHUNG ...........................................................................................................77

LI M U
1. Tnh cp thit ca ti
Thi gian t u nm 2007 n u nm 2008 th trng bt ng sn Vit N am pht
trin mt cch si ng. Bng chng l vn u t nc ngoi vo lnh vc ny
ngy cng nhiu. Trong giai on t u nm 2007 n gia nm 2008, t gi cn h
chung c, t nn d n n gi thu vn phng trung bnh tng 100-200%. iu ny
thu ht mt lng vn ln u t vo lnh vc ny. Cc nh u t trong v ngoi
nc vn vo lnh vc ny nh l mt th trng tim nng mang li nhiu li
nhun. i vi cc nh u t trong nc y l c hi tt chuyn i ngnh ngh
cng nh thm nhp vo cc lnh vc kinh doanh mi. Tuy nhin bt u t giai on
gia cui nm 2008 vi vic Chnh ph tht cht tin t nhm kim ch lm pht
Ny gi bt ng sn gim trung bnh gim 50%-60% so vi giai on nh im.
Thm vo khng hong kinh t bt ngun t M lan sang khp th gii lm
st gim ng k ti sn ca cc ch u t. Cc nh u t nc ngoi bt u rt
dn vn khi Vit N am cng vi ngun tn dng b tht cht lm ngng tr cc d
n trin khai hoc ln k hoch trin khai. Cc d n kh thi t lc cha c
khng hong gi phi xem xt li. T y cho thy nhu cu thNm nh cc d n u
t bt ng sn tng cao hn bao gi ht c bit l cc d n bt ng sn phc hp
mt trong nhng loi hnh bt ng sn mi xut hin gn y nc ta. Bn cnh
, vic thNm nh d n bt ng sn khng ch dng li vic thNm nh tnh kh
thi ca d n m cn phi phn tch c nhng ri ro tim Nn ca chng nhm gip
nh u t c thng tin ra quyt nh. c th thuyt phc c cc nh ti
tr th ngi lp d n phi xy dng v phn tch d n m bo tnh kh thi v ti
chnh. Tuy nhin c th thNm nh mt d n bt ng sn vi qui m vn u t
t hng trm triu n hng t la vi thi gian hot ng hng vi chc nm l
mt vn kh phc tp. Th trng bt ng sn mang li li nhun cao nhng n
cng tim Nn kh nhiu ri ro. iu i hi vic thNm nh cc d n bt ng sn
phi phn tch c nhng ri ro tim Nn nh u t c y thng tin ra
quyt nh. Thc t cho thy giai on t gia nm 2008 khi chnh ph tht cht tin

t kim ch lm pht th gi bt ng sn lin tc gim su, nhiu d n thiu vn

phi tm ngng thc hin. Tnh trng hin nay l vic thNm nh d n bt ng
sn ch dng phn phn tch v thNm nh cc ch tiu ti chnh ca d n m cha
quan tm v d bo c nhng ri ro c th c ca d n nh ri ro do lm pht, gi
bn sn phNm, li sut, gi cho thu gim do tnh hnh cnh tranh gay gt, gi vt liu
xy dng tng, ri ro v cc chnh sch ca nh nc m d n u t bt ng
sn thng phi c thi gian hot ng v thu hi vn kh di nn hn ch ri ro cho
cc nh u t cng l gip th trng bt ng sn nc ta pht trin mt cch bn
vng.
2. ngha khoa hc thc tin ca ti
Thng qua nghin cu ti ny ta s nm c gii php hon thin phng php
thNm nh d n u t v kinh doanh bt ng sn phc hp, cch thc la chn
nhng hng mc u t, la chn hnh thc kinh doanh sau khi xy dng xong, c
cu vn ca d n v phn tch ri ro c th ca d n bt ng sn, phng thc
phn tch cc ri ro v ng dng cho cc d n u t bt ng sn phc hp trong
thc tin ti Vit N am.
3. Mc tiu nghin cu
Mc tiu nghin cu ca ti l hon thin phng php thNm nh ti chnh cc d
n u t v kinh doanh bt ng sn phc hp v phn tch cc yu t ri ro ca cc
d n u t bt ng sn v a ra cc gii php kin ngh gim thiu thp nht cc
ri ro cho cc nh u t vo d n bt ng sn nc ta.
4. i tng v phm vi nghin cu
i tng nghin cu l nhng d n u t v kinh doanh bt ng sn phc hp
5. Phng php nghin cu
Trong phn nghin cu ny c s dng mt s phng php nghin cu khoa hc:
9 phng php thng k nhm a ra cc s liu, thng s lp cc bng biu cn
thit cho qu trnh phn tch d n

9 phng php phn tch sau khi cc tnh ton cc ch tiu cn thit, phng php
phn tch c p dng phn tch cc s liu nhm a ra cc nhn nh phc v
cho cng tc quyt nh la chn d n
9 phng php so snh: so snh cc s liu tnh ton vi nhau a ra cc nhn
nh tnh kh thi ca d n.
6. Kt cu ca lun vn
N i dung ca ti gm 3 phn chnh nh sau:
Chng 1: C s l lun v vic thNm nh d n u t v kinh doanh bt ng sn
phc hp
Chng 2: ThNm nh d n u t v kinh doanh bt ng sn phc hp trong thc
tin
Chng 3: xut ca tc gi nhm hon thin thNm nh d n u t v kinh
doanh bt ng sn phc hp
7. Ni dung nghin cu
gii quyt cc vn nghin cu c nu phn trn, ta cn phi lm r cc ni
dung sau:
- Xc nh cc ch tiu ti chnh xc nh dng tin ca d n v phng php
xy dng gi bn, chi ph xy dng, la chn t sut chit khu ti chnh cho cc c
cu vn khc nhau, phng n kinh doanh khc nhau ca d n sau khi xy dng.
- Tm tt s lc v d n u t c th: a im v vn u t, s lc v th
trng bt ng sn TP.HCM, nhu cu v cao c vn phng, trung tm thng mi,
cn h cao cp v khch sn 3-5 sao ti thnh ph H Ch Minh trong thi gian ti,
i tng khch hng, chin lc marketing ca d n, k hoch bn trc.
- xut mt s gii php nhm nng cao m hnh thNm nh d n u t bt ng
sn trong thc t.
- Phn tch ri ro ca d n: phn ny ti s i su ba ni dung:
9 Th nht, phn tch nhy ca cc yu t u vo ca d n bt ng sn, khi
cc yu t u vo thay i th cc ch tiu ti chnh ca d n s thay i nh th

no v khi no th d n s phi i mt vi ri ro, yu t no tc ng nhiu nht

n ri ro ca d n.
9 Th hai, phn tch tnh hung xc nh tnh hung no tt nht v bt li nht
cho d n.
9 Th ba l phn tch m phng cho bit mc chc chn ca cc bin d bo cn
xem xt sau khi t cc bin gi thuyt. Sau khi phn tch m phng ta s bit c
d n c bao nhiu phn trm chc chc s t kt qu nh mong mun.

CHNG 1: C S L LUN V THM NNH TI CHNH CA

CC D N U T V KINH DOANH BT NG SN PHC
HP
1.1 Tng quan v thm nh d n u t v kinh doanh bt ng sn phc hp
1.1.1 Mt s khi nim
1.1.1.1 Bt ng sn phc hp
Bt ng sn phc hp l d n bt ng sn bao gm nhiu hn mt hng mc trong
mt d n. Cc bt ng sn phc hp trn th gii thng bao gm cn h kt hp
vi trung tm thng mi, khch sn, cao c vn phng, cn h cho thu. Mc ch
ca pht trin bt ng sn phc hp l tn dng ti a thun li ca v tr bt ng
sn mang li. N goi ra, vic pht trin bt ng sn phc hp gip phn b dn s
hp l hn cho mt th, mang n nhng tin ch tt nht cho ngi dn.
1.1.1.2 D n kinh doanh bt ng sn
Theo Lut kinh doanh bt ng sn s 63/2006/QH11 ngy 29/06/2006, kinh doanh
bt ng sn l vic b vn u t to lp, mua, nhn chuyn nhng, thu, thu mua
bt ng sn bn, chuyn nhng, cho thu, cho thu li, cho thu mua nhm mc
ch sinh li.
1.1.1.3 D n u t bt ng sn
u t bt ng sn l hot ng b vn u t nhm thit lp m hnh kinh doanh
trn mt khu t cung cp dch v bt ng sn. Trong thc t c cc loi d n
u t nh sau:
- D n u t kinh doanh cao c vn phng;
- D n cn h cho thu;
- D n trung tm thng mi;
- D n khch sn, nh hng;
- D n v dch v nh ;

- D n h tng khu cng nghip;

- D n kt hp cung cp cc loi hnh dch v trn;
Do d n u t bt ng sn thc cht l hot ng kinh doanh bt ng sn
nhng giai on to ra bt ng sn cho th trng. y l mt trong nhng khu
quan trng nht ca th trng bt ng sn v s to ra hng ho mi cho th trng
bt ng sn. y l khu phc tp nht trong cc hot ng kinh doanh bt ng sn
khc so vi cc hot ng mua bn li bt ng sn. So vi hot ng mua bn bt
ng sn th nh u t ch cn xc nh c gi mua v, chi ph lin quan n bt
ng sn nh thu chuyn mc ch s dng, chi ph mi gii, li vay, chi ph c hi,
thu chuyn nhng v li nhun k vng l c th xc nh c gi bn. i vi
hot ng u t nh u t s i t khu u tin l chn khu t, xin giy php xy
dng, thit k, thi cng to ra bt ng sn. Sau khi xy dng xong bt ng sn
nh u t phi quyt nh phng n kinh doanh bt ng sn to ra nh bn tt
c hay khai thc kinh doanh. Theo s liu thng k ca cc t chc qun l bt ng
sn trn th gii th m hnh kinh doanh bao gm: cn h bn kt hp vi cc m
hnh khc nh trung tm thng mi, cao c vn phng v khch sn chim ph bin
nht. y c xem l m hnh thch hp nht cho mi hot ng u t xy dng
bt ng sn. T m hnh ny nh u t s phi chn lc li nhng hng mc no
ph hp vi d n ca mnh v loi b nhng hng mc khng hiu qu hoc pht
trin tt c cc hng mc nhm mc ch phn tn ri ro.
1.1.1.4 Thm nh ti chnh cc d n u t v kinh doanh bt ng sn phc
hp
ThNm nh ti chnh ca cc d n u t kinh doanh bt ng sn phc hp l thNm
nh hiu qu ti chnh ca d n k t khi tin hnh mua t, thit k, thi cng n
sau khi hon tt vic kinh doanh d n. Vic thNm nh ny c th c thc hin
cho tng phng n kinh doanh khc nhau ph thuc vo mc tiu ca nh u t.
N h u t s chn la phng n kinh doanh trong s nhng phng n sau:
Bn li tt c d n sau khi xy dng xong

Bn mt s hng mc v kinh doanh mt s hng mc

Kinh doanh tt c cc hng mc.
Vic thNm nh ti chnh cng s xut cho cc nh u t u l phng n kinh
doanh ph hp nht i vi mc tiu ca cng ty mnh.
1.1.2 c im ca bt ng sn phc hp v thm nh ti chnh cc d n
u t v kinh doanh bt ng sn phc hp
c im ca bt ng sn phc hp
N hiu hng mc kinh doanh trong cng mt d n
Thng qua thNm nh tnh kh thi mi quyt nh c cn u t vo hng mc
no
Cc hng mc thng c c im hot ng khc nhau. i vi d n m tt c
cc hng mc c bn ht th thi gian ca d n l t khi bt u xy dng n
sau khi bn xong. i vi hng mc kinh doanh th thi gian u t ca d n
ko di t 50 n 70 nm.
Hng mc ny s lm gia tng gi tr cho cc hng mc khc
c im ca thm nh ti chnh cc d n u t v kinh doanh bt ng
sn phc hp
T nhng c im ca bt ng sn phc hp nh trn do cng vic thNm nh
ti chnh cc d n bt ng sn phc hp l xc nh hiu qu v mt ti chnh ca
d n bt ng sn c xem xt n vic la chn cc hng mc phc hp u t.
Bn cnh d n bt ng sn phc hp s c nhiu hng mc c phng n hot
ng khc nhau cho nn phi xc nh phng n kinh doanh ph hp sau khi u
t xy dng cho tng hng mc ny.
1.1.3 Qui trnh thm nh mt d n u t v kinh doanh bt ng sn
pht trin mt d n u t bt ng sn nh u t s phi tin hnh rt nhiu
bc thNm nh i n quyt nh chn la d n u t, bao gm:

Thm nh v mc tiu ca d n: mc tiu ca cc d n bt ng sn thng

bao gm:
Xy dng cng trnh nh cho x hi: mt s d n ch u t s thc hin xy
dng cc cng trnh cho x hi nh xy dng nh cho ngi thu nhp thp, xy
dng nh ti nh c
Xy dng cng trnh kinh doanh: ch u t c c ton quyn quyt nh v
sn phNm ca mnh
Kt hp gia hai mc tiu trn: mt s d n ch u t s c nh nc giao
t sau s xy dng mt phn cng trnh phc v x hi, phn cn li nh u
t s t kinh doanh.
Thm nh v th trng: phn tch th trng hoc mc cu cn c nh
gi xem sn phNm u t s hng n l i tng no, hin nay trong khu vc
d n c bao nhiu d n tng ng, mc gi bn ca sn phNm nh th no so
vi d n mnh d nh thc hin. T nghin cu trn s a ra mc gi hp l cho
d n d nh s u t.
Thm nh v k thut cng ngh: thng khu thNm nh ny cc nh u t s
thNm nh k thut s thi cng cng trnh nh my mc cng trnh lm mng,
cng ngh xy dng i vi cng trnh thit k c ct v khng c ct, cng ngh
xy dng nhanh s s dng b tng thng hay b tng nhanh khvic thNm
nh cng ngh ny s gip tit kim c rt nhiu chi ph khi xy dng cng
trnh.
Thm nh v kinh t x hi
D n s ng gp cho x hi nh th no nh to ra qu nh cho x hi nh
th no
S lng vic lm c to ra cho ngi lao ng.
N gha v ng gp cho ngn sch nh nc

Cc ch tiu khc nh: gp phn pht trin chung ca nn kinh t, tho mn nhu
cu bc thit v nh ca ngi dn, gp phn nng cao mc sng cho ngi
dn.
Thm nh v mi trng sinh thi: vic thNm nh ch tiu ny cn c thc
hin cho c giai on xy dng v sau khi a sn phNm vo s dng.
Giai on xy dng thng din ra trong thi gian di v vic xy dng nh
hng rt ln n khu vc xung quanh nh ting n, bi, nc thi. ThNm nh
ch tiu ny nhm mc ch gip nh u t c cc bin php gim thiu nhng
tc ng ny n mi trng.
Giai on a sn phNm vo s dng s phi thNm nh nhng tc ng nh sau:
mc nhim do nc thi gy ra, ting n do c dn ca d n gy ra. ThNm
nh ch tiu ny nh u t cn xy dng h thng nc thi p ng nhu cu
ca c dn trong d n, xy dng li i ring
Thm nh v ti chnh: l xc nh d n c hiu qu hay khng v mt ti chnh
thng qua vic tnh cc ch s ti chnh. Vic thNm nh ny a phn s quyt nh
c la chn u t d n hay khng.
1.2 Tm quan trng ca vic thm nh ti chnh mt d n u t bt ng
sn.
ThNm nh ti chnh ca mt d n l mt trong cc khu thNm nh chnh i n
quyt nh la chn d n u t. Vic thNm nh ti chnh ca cc d n bt ng
sn trong thc t thng din ra thng xuyn nh trc khi tin hnh mua t, sau
khi thit k tng, sau khi thit k c s v trc khi trin khai d n. Trong cc
bc thNm nh d n th thNm nh ti chnh l khu thNm nh quan trng nht i
vi mt d n u t bt ng sn. Mt d n c nh gi l kh thi khi t sut
sinh li mang li ln hn hoc bng t sut li nhun mong i ca nh u t hoc
sut chit khu th trng. Thm vo d n phi c thi gian thu hi vn ngn v
c xc sut sinh li nh mong i l cao nht.
1.3 Cc ch tiu s dng thm nh ti chnh

Tiu chuNn hin gi thun (N PV)

Hin gi thun (N PV) ca mt d n l gi tr ca dng tin ca dng tin d kin
trong tng lai c quy v hin ti tr i vn u t d kin ban u
N PV=Gi tr hin ti ca dng tin d kin trong tng lai u t ban u
Tiu chuNn t sut sinh li ni b (IRR)
T sut sinh li ni b ca mt d n l li sut chit khu m ti N PV ca d n
bng 0.
Tiu chuNn ch s sinh li (PI)
Ch s sinh li (PI) c nh ngha nh l gi tr hin ti ca dng tin ca d n
u t so vi u t ban u
PI =

PV
I

Tiu chuNn thi gian thu hi vn (PP)

Thi gian thu hi vn ca d n l khong thi gian thu hi li vn u t ban u
ca d n
Tiu chuNn thi gian thu hi vn c chit khu (DPP)
Tiu chuNn PP khim khit l b qua tnh cht gi tr tin t theo thi gian v tiu
chuNn DPP s khc phc im yu ny. Phng php thi gian thu hi vn c chit
khu DPP l khong thi gian cn thit tng hin gi tt c thu nhp trong tng
lai ca d n va b p s vn u t ban u b ra.
Vic tnh ton cc ch tiu trn khng qu phc tp v c s h tr ca my vi tnh
nh hin nay. Tuy nhin, xy dng c nhng con s phc v cho vic tnh ra
cc ch tiu ny cn s am hiu v c th ca ngnh ngh cng nh xy dng c
ngun s liu u vo chnh xc v c tin cy cao. Trong thNm nh ti chnh ca
d n bt ng sn th cc yu t ng vai tr rt quan trng nh: tin thc hin
d n d kin, chi ph xy dng, gi bn sn phNm, chi ph chit khu, chi ph hot
ng, tc tng gi bn v cho thu...Xc nh chnh xc cc yu t ny s gip cho
kt qu ti chnh ca d n c tin cy cao.
1.4 Phn loi cc d n u t v kinh doanh bt ng sn phc hp

1.4.1 Da trn tnh cht m rng hay thay th ca d n

Cc d n c nhiu mc ch khc nhau. Tuy nhin tt c cc d n c th xp thnh
nhm: d n m rng, d n thay th, d n pht sinh p ng cc yu cu php
l.
1.4.1.1 D n m rng
Cng ty Keppel Land u t cao c vn phng Si Gn Center 65 L Li Qun 1
nhn thy nhu cu cao c vn phng v trung tm thng mi gia tng ng k cho
nn cng ty quyt nh u t m rng thm cao c th hai k bn cnh.
1.4.1.2 D n thay th
Thi gian gn y cc khu ch truyn thng nh ch Tn Bnh, B Chiu, Vn
Thnh tr nn qu c k khng an ton cho cng vic kinh doanh cng nh
khng phn nh c b mt pht trin ca thnh ph . Do ch trng ca thnh
ph l ku gi cc nh u t u t xy dng mi cc khu ch ny khang trang hn
nhm p ng nhu cu mua sm ngy cng cao ca c dn. Thnh ph s u tin
dnh mt phn t trong khu ch cho ch u t xy dng cc hng mc kinh doanh
nhm thu hi vn u t b ra xy dng li cc ch ny.
Khng ging nh cc ngnh ngh khc l phi u t lin tc tm kim sn phNm
mi thay th cc sn phNm tr nn li thi. Thng thng cc d n thng mi
ln trong ngnh bt ng sn c thi gian hot ng kh lu ( t 50 n 70 nm ) vi
s vn u t t chc triu ln n hng trm triu USD do trin khai ri th
khng c c hi u t thay th.
1.4.1.3 Cc d n pht sinh p ng cc yu cu php l, cc tiu chun sc
khe v an ton.
Cc d n ny bao gm cc xut u t cho cc thit b kim sot nhim, thng
gi v phng chy trong cc ta nh cao c. Khi phn tch tt nht l nn c xem
nh cc d n ph thuc.
1.4.2 Da trn mi tng quan kinh t ca cc d n
1.4.2.1 Cc d n c lp ln nhau

Cc d n c gi l c lp ln nhau v kinh t nu vic chp nhn loi b d n

ny khng lm nh hng n quyt nh chp nhn hay loi b cc d n khc.
1.4.2.2 Cc d n ph thuc ln nhau
N u dng tin ca mt d n b tc ng bi quyt nh chp nhn hay loi b d n
khc th d n th nht gi l ph thuc vo d n th hai. Mc khc, d n th hai
cng gi l ph thuc vo d n th nht. V d vic la chn xy dng sn golf s
gip vic bn cc bit th trong khu sn golf t c gi cao hn v khch hng mua
bit th ny s th hng c nhng tin ch m sn golf mang li. N gc li,
khch hng trong cc bit th ny s thng xuyn chi golf hn. iu ny s gp
phn lm tng doanh thu cho khu sn golf. Do , d n villa v sn golf l hai d n
ph thuc ln nhau.
1.4.2.3 Cc d n loi tr ln nhau
Hai d n gi l loi tr ln nhau nu nhng khon thu nhp t mt d n u t no
s bit mt hon ton nu d n khc c chp nhn. Vic chp nhn mt d n
ny c ngha l t b hon ton d n khc. V d nh u t quyt nh pht trin
khu vn phng Si Gn Trade Center th s b d n xy khch sn ti v tr ny.
1.5 Nhng nhn t nh hng n thm nh ti chnh d n u t bt ng
sn phc phc hp
1.5.1 Phn tch th trng ca sn phm
y l mt trong nhng giai on quan trng khi tin hnh thNm nh mt d n bt
ng sn phc hp m cc nh u t bt ng sn Vit N am thng hay b qua.
Cng on ny s gip nh gi nhu cu, ngun cung cng nh lch s ca cc hng
mc ny. Thng qua nhng thng tin ny gip chng ta nh gi chnh xc c
nhng i th cnh tranh trn th trng, quyt nh n gi bn ca sn phNm chng
ta d nh u t cng nh quyt nh n vic la chn cc hng mc no cn pht
trin nhm t c hiu qu cao nht.
1.5.2 Phn tch SWOT ca khu t

Phn tch SWOT nhm xc nh c nhng im mnh, im yu ca d n cng

nh c hi v thch thc. Vic phn tch ny s ch ra u l im mnh u l im
yu ca d n nhm mc ch pht huy im mnh v hn ch tc ng ca im
yu. N goi ra, phn tch SWOT cng s gip nh u t tn dng tt c hi v cng
gim thiu nhng nguy c e do n d n.
1.5.3 La chn cc hng mc thch hp u t
y l nhng bc quan trng thc hin mt d n bt ng sn phc hp thnh
cng. D n bt ng sn phc hp khc vi nhng d n khc vic chn la sn
phNm u t. N u nh nhng d n thng thng nh u t bit chc chn l u
t vo sn phNm g trc khi bt u thNm nh, sau khi thNm nh xong nu hiu qu
th u t cn khng hiu qu th khng thc hin. Trong khi i vi d n bt ng
sn phc hp th a phn sau khi thNm nh nh u t mi bit l nhng sn phNm g
cn u t. y l mt im khc bit ca cc d n bt ng sn phc hp. Vic la
chn cc hng mc u t cn phi thc hin mt cch khoa hc v s nh hng
rt ln n thnh cng ca d n. N hng c s la chn hng mc ph hp l
phn tch SWOT ca d n cng vi phn tch v th trng quyt nh xem l sn
phNm no ph hp vi v tr ca khu t d nh xy dng. N goi ra, vic la chn
hng mc u t cn hiu r c im hot ng ca cc sn phNm d nh u t.
1.5.4 Xc nh phng n kinh doanh sn phm sau khi xy dng xong
Vic xc nh phng n kinh doanh ca cc d n bt ng sn phc hp thng l
quyt nh bn tt c sn phNm hay s ng ra khai thc kinh doanh. Hng mc
thng c bn ht sau khi xy dng l cn h bn cn cc hng mc khc thng
nh u t s ng ra kinh doanh hoc cho thu. Tuy nhin, trong nhiu trng hp
mt s nh u t s bn ht tt c sau dng li nhun t c u t vo d n
mi. Vic la chn phng n kinh doanh s nh hng n li nhun ca nh u
t. N h u t cn xc nh li nhun mong i c phng n kinh doanh hp l.
1.5.5 p dng phng php hp l xc nh dng ngn lu ca d n
Mt d n c u t mi hay u t m rng th vic phn tch hiu qu ti chnh
ca n l mt yu cu khng th thiu cho cc nh u t da vo ra quyt

10

nh. Phn tch u t vn l mt chc nng qun tr ti chnh ch yu trong mt

trong nhng yu t hng u c cc nh u t quan tm l dng ngn lu d kin
t c t cc hot ng u t ca mnh, iu ny khng ch p dng i vi cc
d n u t xy dng mi m cn p dng cho nhng chng trnh hot ng kinh
doanh ca doanh nghip nh u t cho cc chin dch qung co hay u t cho
nghin cu pht trin. V vy, vic phn tch u t vn l mt ni dung quan trng
cn xem xt trong nh gi tnh kh thi ca d n hay mt quyt nh u t.
1.5.5.1 Khi nim dng ngn lu
N gn lu l bng d ton thu chi trong sut tui th ca d n, n bao gm nhng
khon thc thu v thc chi ca d n tnh theo tng nm. Quy c ghi nhn dng tin
vo v dng tin ra ca d n u c xc nh thi im cui nm.
1.5.5.2 Vai tr ca dng ngn lu
V dng ngn lu phn nh thi im thc thu v thc chi ca dng tin nn trong
phn tch ti chnh d n, ta s dng dng ngn l c s nh gi d n. Li nhun
khng phn nh chnh xc thi im thu chi tin ca d n, v vy khng phn nh
mt cch chnh xc tng hiu qu ca d n theo thi gi ca tin t.
1.5.5.3 Cc nguyn tc xc nh dng ngn lu
Dng tin nn c o lng trn c s tng thm (Incremental Basis)
nh gi dng tin cho mt d n c th trn gc ton b dng tin ca doanh
nghip s b tc ng nh th no nu d n c chp nhn so vi tc ng khi d
n khng c chp nhn. V vy, nn a vo phn phn tch tt c cc thay i
trong dng doanh thu, dng chi ph v dng thu pht sinh do vic chp nhn d n.
N gc li, khng tnh n dng tin khng b d n thay i.
Dng tin nn c tnh ton trn c s sau thu
V u t ban u cho mt d n i hi chi ph bng tin mt sau thu, nn thu nhp
t d n cng phi c tnh bng dng tin sau thu m bo cng n v trong
tnh ton.
Tt c cc tc ng gin tip ca mt d n phi c xem xt khi nh gi
dng tin

11

Dng tin ca d n phi c xem xt nh gi trong mi quan h qua li gia tt

c cc nhn t khc ca ton doanh nghip. Chng hn nh nu mt doanh nghip
xut xy dng thm mt cao c vn phng bn cnh th s tc ng th no dng
tin v li nhun ca d n hin ti.
Cc chi ph thit hi khng c tnh vo dng tin ca d n
Chi ph thit hi l nhng chi ph c chi ra. V cc chi ph thit hi khng th
thu hi li c nn khng c tnh trong quyt nh chp nhn hay t chi mt d
n. Chi ph ny c gi l chi ph chm.
Cn quan tm n chi ph c hi ca d n khi tnh ton dng tin.
Chi ph c hi l nhng khong thu nhp m cng ty phi mt i do s dng ngun
lc ca cng ty vo d n. Chi ph c hi khng phi l mt khon thc chi nhng
phi c tnh vo v l khon thu nhp m cng ty phi mt i khi thc hin d
n.
1.5.5.4 nh gi dng tin ca d n
Trong phn tch ti chnh ca d n ni chung v d n bt ng sn ni ring th
phn tch dng tin l ni dung u tin v quan trng nht i hi cc nh phn tch
quan tm nht v dng tin ca d n l kt qu mong mun dng nh gi tnh
hiu qu ca mt d n u t. N i dung cn nh gi y l dng tin hot ng
thun sau thu ( N et operating cash flows N CF) ca mt d n
N CF =

OEAT +

Dep -

N WC

(1)

Trong :
OEAT : l thay i thu nhp hot ng sau thu .
Dep

: l thay i chi ph khu hao

N WC : l thay i trong u t vn lun chuyn cn thit h tr cho d

n. Do cc khon u t vo vn lun chuyn lm gim dng tin thun N CF. Tuy
nhin vo nm cui cng ca i sng kinh t ca d n th N WC s c thu hi li
do thu tin t vic bn cn h hoc hot ng cho thu khch sn v vn phng th
N WC s gim lm cho N CF tng.

12

Cng thc tnh dng tin N CF (1) cho thy dng tin ca d n ph thuc vo 3 ch
tiu chnh:
OEAT c tnh da vo thay i trong thu nhp hot ng trc thu
(

OEBT) x (1-T) vi T l thu sut thu thu nhp doanh nghip

OEAT =

OEBT bng thay i trong doanh thu

hot ng

O v thay i khu hao

(2)

OEBT (1-T)

R tr i cc thay i trong cc chi ph

Dep

OEBT =

R-

O-

Dep

(3)

OEAT==
OEAT

(4)

OEBT(1-T)
(1-T)
OEBT

Thay vo phng trnh (2) ta c:

OEAT = (

R-

O-

Dep)(1-T)

(5)

Thay phng trnh (4) vo phng trnh (1), ta c:

N CF = (

Trong

R = R1-R0,

R-

O-

Dep)(1-T) +

O = O1 O0,

Dep -

N WC

(6)

Dep = Dep1 Dep0 vi:

R1 : l doanh thu ca doanh nghip khi khng c d n

R0 : l doanh thu ca doanh nghip khi c d n
O1 : Cc chi ph hot ng khng tnh chi ph khu hao khi doanh nghip khng c
d n
O0 : Cc chi ph hot ng khng tnh chi ph khu hao khi doanh nghip c d n
D1 : Cc chi ph khu hao ca doanh nghip khi khng c d n
D 0 : Cc chi ph khu hao khi doanh nghip c d n
T phng trnh (5) c vit li nh sau:
N CF = [(R1 -R0) (O1 - O0) (Dep1 Dep0)](1-T) + (Dep1-Dep0)-

N WC

(7)

13

N goi ra, nu nm cui cng ca i sng kinh t ca d n gi tr ti sn c thu

hi sau thanh l th gi tr thanh l sau khi tr cc khon thu s c cng thm vo
dng tin ca d n vo nm cui cng ny tnh tng gi tr dng tin ca d n
sut thi gian d n hot ng.
Vn lun chuyn ca d n c thu hi ton b sau khi kt thc d n: trong sut
i sng kinh t ca d n doanh nghip s u t vn lun chuyn tng thm, vn
u t ny s c thu hi li bng tin mt sau khi kt thc d n v khon thu hi
ny cng c cng vo tnh ton dng tin ca d n.
Mt ch tiu cn quan tm trong xc nh dng tin ca d n l khu hao v t l
khu hao, phng php khu hao c nh hng rt ln n dng tin ca d n do
gi tr khu hao l khon chi ph c khu tr trc khi tnh thu. Hin nay, c ba
phng php khu hao mi phng php khu hao m doanh nghip s dng c nh
hng ng k n dng tin ca d n l khu hao dng ng thng, khu hao
nhanh v khu hao da trn s nm gim dn.
1.5.6 La chn t sut chit khu ph hp
1.5.6.1 Khi nim t sut chit khu
T sut chit khu l t sut dng chit khu dng tin ca d n v thi im lp
d n. Thng thng t sut chit khu ph thuc vo rt nhiu yu t nh: c cu
vn ca d n, a im d n c d nh u t, lnh vc u t, thi gian u
t... Trong thc t li sut vay di hn, chi ph s dng vn bnh qun (WACC), t
sut sinh li trung bnh ngnh c s dng lm t sut chit khu. Tuy nhin mi
yu t s c mt ngha khc nhau v c s dng trong nhng giai on khc
nhau. Trong giai on nn kinh t bnh thng th chi ph s dng vn bnh qun
c u tin hng u lm t sut chit khu. Bi v, hu ht cc d n bt ng
sn trong thc t c ti tr ch yu t cc ngun sau: n vay, c phn u i, thu
nhp gi li, c phn thng. Do phn nh chnh xc t sut chit khu, chi ph
s dng vn bnh qun nn c dng lm t sut chit khu cho cc d n bt ng
sn. Li sut vay di hn ch phn nh phn vn c ti tr bng n ca d n. T
sut trung bnh ngnh cng l mt ch tiu quan trng la chon lm t sut chit

14

khu tuy nhin vic tnh t sut trung bnh ngnh hin nay cha tin cy v c
s d liu ngnh tnh ton cn nhiu hn ch. Thc t khi chn t sut chit khu
s gp mt ro cn rt ln l li sut vay ngn hng. Cc nh u t k vng mt
t sut chit khu lun lun ln hn li sut vay ngn hng nhng thc t nm 2008
li sut ngn hng tng mt cch bt thng v giao ng mc t 18% n 20%.
iu ny s rt kh mt d n bt k mang tnh kh thi nu ly t sut chit khu
ln hn hoc bng li sut vay ngn hng v li sut trung bnh cc ngnh giao ng
t 14% n 16%.
Chi ph s dng vn cn c th c hiu l t sut sinh li ti thiu m doanh
nghip s i hi khi thc hin mt d n u t mi. N u mt d n u t mi to
ra t sut sinh li ni b IRR ln hn chi ph s dng vn th gi tr ca doanh
nghip s tng (hay d n u t kh thi) ngc li nu mt d n u t mi to ra
IRR thp hn chi ph s dng vn, gi tr ca doanh nghip s gim (hay d n u
t khng kh thi).
Hu nh khng c ch tiu no c s dng cho tt c cc d n m ph thuc vo
quan im ca tng ch u t. C ch tiu ph hp vi d n ny nhng c ch tiu
ph hp vi d n khc. N hng ch tiu sau y trong thc t c chn lm t sut
chit khu ca cc d n bt ng sn.
1.5.6.2 Cc ch tiu s dng lm t sut chit khu
1.5.6.2.1 Li sut vay di hn ngn hng
Trong thc t li sut vay di hn ngn hng cng thng c chn lm t sut
chit khu cho d n v nhng l do sau:
n gin trong vic tnh ton.
D thy c s hiu qu ca d n hay khng. N hiu d n nh u t ch cn
xem xt IRR ln hn li sut ngn hng l c th u t c. V nhiu c ng c
th vay vn ngn hng u t vo d n cho nn mc li sut ngn hng l mt
ch tiu d nhn thy s hiu qu.
Tuy nhin ch tiu ny rt t dng lm t sut chit khu trong cc d n bt ng sn
v vn u t cho bt ng sn rt ln do thng c ti tr t nhiu ngun nh:

15

vn ch s hu, huy ng trc t khch hng, vay n, li nhun gi li. Mc khc

mt d n bt ng sn thng ko di hng chc nmcho nn li sut vay khng
phn nh c tt c cc chi ph s dng vn m d n c ti tr.
1.5.6.2.2 T sut sinh li trung bnh ngnh
y l mt ch tiu cng rt c s dng v phn nh c mc li nhun m ngnh
ngh mang li. Trong nhng giai on m nn kinh t bin ng ln th ch tiu ny
c u tin la chn. N h giai on nm 2008 lm pht tng cao, Chnh ph
thc hin chnh sch tht cht tin t. Kt qu l li sut ngn hng tng ln mc cao
nht trong lch s. T y vic la chn t sut chit khu da trn phng php
WACC v li sut vay ngn hng gp nhiu kh khn. V chi ph li vay tng cao nn
dn n t sut chit khu theo phng php WACC s tng ln cao. T sut chit
khu ca mt d n bt ng sn thng mi c la chn cho c mt giai on 50
70 nm cho nn t sut ny khng phn nh chnh xc c im di hn ca d n
bt ng sn. N u la chn bng li vay ngn hng th hu nh khng d n no t
hiu qu. Do t sut trung bnh ngnh c chn la s l phng php ti u cho
cc d n bt ng sn.
Hin nay theo thng k t sut trung bnh ngnh ca cc d n bt ng l nm trong
khong 14% n 16%/nm. T l 14% thng c s dng nh gi ti sn bn,
cn mc 16% thng c p dng lm t sut chit khu tnh ch s N PV.
1.5.6.2.3 Chi ph s dng vn bnh qun (WACC)
Chi ph s dng vn bnh qun WACC l chi ph bnh qun gia quyn ca tt c cc
ngun ti tr di hn m mt doanh nghip ang s dng. Chi ph s dng vn bnh
qun WACC ca mt doanh nghip hay mt d n c tnh ton nh sau:
WACC = (WD x r*D) + (WP x rP) + (We x re hoc rne)
Trong :
WD : T trng ngun ti tr bng vn vay di hn trong cu trc vn
WP : T trng ngun ti tr bng vn c phn u i trong cu trc vn
We : T trng ngun ti tr bng vn c phn thng trong cu trc vn
WD + WP + We = 1

16

r*D : Chi ph s dng vn vay di hn sau thu

rP : Chi ph s dng vn c phn u i
re : Chi ph s dng vn li nhun gi li
rne : Chi ph s dng vn c phn thng pht hnh mi
Nhn xt:
- Chi ph s dng vn bnh qun l ch tiu thch hp cho cc d n v d n bt ng
sn i hi vn u t ln v thi gian u t di nn hu ht c ti tr t tt c
cc ngun ti tr sn c trn th trng. Do ch tiu ny s phn nh tt c chi ph
s dng vn ca d n vo ch tiu ny.
- Tuy nhin vi cc d n bt ng sn c bit l d n cn h bn, ch u t lun
lun huy ng vn trc t khch hng. N gun vn ny ch u t s s dng m
khng tn chi ph. Do , nu s dng ch tiu chi ph s dng vn bnh qun th s
lm cho ch tiu ny c chi ph s dng vn rt thp v c mt t l vn rt cao khng
tn chi ph s dng vn. Tuy nhin trong thc t ch u t s chu p lc ln v vic
s dng ngun vn ny nh:
9

Ch c huy ng vn t khch hng khi hon thnh xong phn mng

Ch c huy ng ti a 70% trc khi bn giao cn h

Khch hng s phi cam kt bn giao sn phNm ng hn, nu khng s b pht

tr hn m trong cc d n bt ng sn ln tr hn giao nh l iu rt hay xy ra v

tnh cht phc tp ca cng vic thi cng. Do , phn chi ph ny thc t c pht
sinh chi ph nhng rt kh xc nh c. N goi ra, nu c tin n v d n khng
tt khch hng c th ko n i tin li hng lot lc ch u t khng th kim
u ra tin tr li cho ngi mua v tin ng trc chuyn sang sn phNm
xy dng d dang. Do , thc t phn chi ph ny nh u t cng tn chi ph nhng
khng o lng c.
9

N goi ra y l phn thu trc ca khch hng nhng cng c th l mt

phn li nhun ca ch u t v t im ca bt ng sn l cn thi gian di

hon thnh. Tuy nhin xc nh c phn no l thu trc, phn no l li nhun
th rt kh v theo chuNn mc ghi nhn doanh thu l khi chuyn a s ri ro sang

17

ngi s dng lc mi c ghi nhn l doanh thu. Do , cha iu kin

hoch ton doanh thu th iu cng c ngha l cha ghi nhn c li nhun.
N goi ra trong c cu ca ch tiu WACC c bao gm chi ph n vay. Trong mt giai
on no chi ph n vay tng ln t bin s lm cho WACC tng ln cao. M t
sut chit khu p dng cho c mt vng i d n ch khng phi trong mt vi
nm, nn p dng ch tiu ny s khng thch hp.
Do , ch tiu ny l mt trong nhng ch tiu rt hay c s dng trong cc d n
ni chung v cc d n bt ng sn khc ni ring nh d n cao c vn phng,
trung tm thng mi hay khch sn.
1.5.6.2.4 T sut sinh li trong qu kh:
y l mt ch tiu phn nh t sut sinh li (ROE) ca nhng cng ty hot ng
trong qu kh. N hiu c ng s xem xt vic u t m rng d n s mang li
nhun nh th no so vi nhng g h ang t c. C ng s quyt nh u t
nu t sut sinh li ca d n mi bng hoc ln hn t sut sinh li hin ti.
Nhn xt:
- Ch tiu ny c u im l thy c hiu qu ca d n u t m rng. Trong
trng hp d n m rng khng mang li li nhun cao hn hoc bng d n hin
ti th ch u t s khng quyt nh u t vo d n m thay vo tm kim
c hi khc c t sut sinh li cao hn hoc s dnh ngun lc tp trung vo khai
thc d n hin ti.
- Tuy nhin i vi nhng cng ty hoc d n mi hot ng th khng th s dng
c ch tiu ny lm t sut chit khu.
1.6 Phn tch ri ro d n u t v kinh doanh bt ng sn
1.6.1 Mc ch ca phn tch ri ro
Hu ht cc d n bt ng sn u tn ti nhng ri ro nh chi ph vt liu xy
dng, chi ph nhn cng, chi ph nhn chuyn quyn s dng t, s thay i ca
chnh sch php lut v quyn s hu t ai hay chnh sch thu v t ain s
st gim mnh ca gi bn, gi cho thu sn phNm.

18

- a s cc bin c nh hng n N PV nh gi bn, gi cho thu, chi ph xy dng,

t l lm pht. u c mc chc chn khng cao.
- Thng tin v d liu cn cho cc d bo chnh xc l tn km.
- hn ch kh nng thc hin mt d n khng hiu qu trong khi li b qua
mt d n c hiu qu.
Hin nay, phn tch ri ro 3 phng php sau c s dng ph bin:
(1) Phn tch nhy Sensitivity Analysis,
(2) Phn tch tnh hung- Scenario Analysis,
(3) Phn tch m phng Monte Carlo Simulation.
1.6.2 Cc phng php phn tch ri ro
1.6.2.1 Phn tch nhy Sensitivity Analysis
Trong mt d n bt ng sn hu ht cc bin l khng chc chn v chng s mt
rt nhiu thi gian tm ra bin no c d bo chnh xc. Chnh v vy, vn
t ra y l chng ta phi xc nh c bin no c nh hng trng yu n kt
qu m chng ta quan tm v chng ta ch tp trung vo bin trng yu nht. Phn
tch nhy l cng c gip chng ta xc nh c kt qu ca d n s bin ng
nh th no khi cc yu t trng yu thay i.
Nhn xt:
u im ca phng php ny l nhiu d n ch thng qua phn tch nhy th
ch u t a ra c quyt nh l c u t vo d n hay khng. V nhiu
d n cc yu t khc c th kim sot c hoc nm trong k hoch ch mt vi
bin s quan trng l c chc chn cha cao nn thng qua phn tch nhy l
c th quyt nh c vic u t vo d n hay khng.
Tuy nhin, nh cp trn phn tch nhy ti a ch c 2 bin cho nn
khng thy c s thay i ca kt qu trong trng hp c nhiu hn 2 bin cng
thay i.
1.6.2.2 Phn tch tnh hung Scenario Analysis
Phn tch nhy xc nh c bin no quan trng nht nhng chng ta ch nhn
thy tc ng vo kt qu mt cch n l. Phn tch tnh hung s cho thy s kt

19

hp nh hng ca s thay i tt c cc bin ny cng mt lc. Cc bin kt hp vi

nhau s to ra cc tnh hung khc nhau l tnh hung xu nht ngha l tnh
hung m tt c cc bin c nh hng n kt qu u thay i bt li, tnh hung
tt nht ngha l tnh hung m tt c cc bin c nh hng n kt qu thay i tt
nht cng mt lc v trng hp cui cng l trng hp k vng chnh l tnh
hung c mong i nh kt qu ang xem xt hin ti.
Nhn xt:
Vi phng php ny khc phc c nhc im ca phn tch nhy l thy
c s thay i ca kt qu trong trng hp c nhiu hn 2 yu t thay i dn
n thay i v kt qu.
Vic phn tch ny s thc hin thng qua cng c ca phn mm excel, tuy nhin
chng ta phi t gi nh rt nhiu tnh hung c th xy ra cc kt qu khc nhau.
Da trn nhng kt qu ny chng ta s xc nh c tnh hung no l ng tin cy
nht.
1.6.2.3 Phn tch m phng - Monte Carlo Simulation
Mt phng php khc o lng ri ro l phn tch m phng Monte Carlo
Simulation. Phn tch m phng tng t nh phn tch tnh hung do my tnh vn
hnh hng ngn d bo mt cch t ng cng mt lc. Mi mt bin trong m hnh
c gi nh l bin ngu nhin tun theo mt quy lut phn phi xc nh. T cc
bin ny ta thc hin cc php tnh cho tng gi tr ca bin mi gi tr tng ng
ca bin cho ra mt kt qu trn m hnh. Tin trnh ny c lp li theo yu cu
ca php th. Sau khi kt thc s ln th cc kt qu s c hin th trn th d
bo.
Phn tch m phng cho kt qu r rng hn phn tch tnh hung, trong phn tch
tnh hung ch a ra cc tnh hung xut nht, tt nht v k vng nhng kt qu
ca phn tch m phng th li th hin r rng khong, on no l xu nht, tt nht
ca kt qu d bo. N goi ra, mt c im m phn tch m phng vt tri hn
phn tch tnh hung l kt qu trong phn tch m phng c chnh xc cao hn v
c kh nng xy ra nhiu hn trong thc t.

20

Trong phng php phn tch ny c tin cy cao l phi chn hm phn phi
ph hp cho cc bin v lch chuNn ca cc bin phi xc nh tng i chnh
xc vi m hnh thc t. iu ny c th kh nht l i vi trng hp khng c s
liu lch s v i hi mt kh nng phn on tt ca ngi phn tch thng thng
xc nh cc thng s cho cc bin cn m phng ngi ta da vo cc nguyn tc
chung v s hiu bit l thuyt xc nh phn phi ng cho cc bin.
Nhn xt:
Phng php ny c tin cy cao nht trong tt c cc phng php v my tnh
phi tnh ton hng ngn d bo a ra vng tin cy.
Tuy nhin phng php ny kh thc hin v s phc tp cng nh cn mt c s d
liu hon chnh mi c th p dng c phng php ny.

KT LUN CHNG I
Cng vic thNm nh ti chnh l mt trong nhng khu quan trng nht trong qu
trnh u t v kinh doanh bt ng sn . D n bt ng sn phc hp c c im
khc vi cc d n khc l:
- Vn u t rt ln: thng u t mt to nh 20 tng khong 30-40 triu USD.
- Thi gian hot ng di: thng thng mt d n bt ng sn c thi gian hot
ng 50 n 70 nm mc d nhiu d n ch u t c th bn ht sau khi xy dng
nhng nh u t cng s sn sng cho phng n hot ng trong trng hp khng
bn c ht tt c sn phNm. Do , bn cht ca cc d n bt ng sn l hot
ng lu di.
V nhng l do trn nn a phn d n u t bt ng sn rt kh c c hi sa i
sau khi xy dng xong. Do , cng vic thNm nh ti chnh cc d n bt ng sn
cng phi ch trng hn na. N goi ra, trong thc t rt nhiu cc d n bt ng sn
ch dng li vic thNm nh hiu qu m qun i cng tc phn tch ri ro. y l
mt phn kh quan trng trong vic ra quyt nh c u t hay khng vo d n
ca ch u t.

21

CHNG 2: THM NNH TI CHNH D N U T V

KINH DOANH BT NG SN PHC HP TRONG THC T.
N i dung ca chng ny nhm trnh by cch thc hon thin vic thNm nh d n
bt ng sn phc hp trong thc t. Trong sut qu trnh phn tch ca lun vn ny
d n xy dng v kinh doanh khu phc hp Dynamic Plaza ti qun Tn Bnh c
tnh ton lm v d minh ha. Qua nghin cu cc m hnh u t bt ng sn
trong thc t th m hnh ny l ph bin nht. Trong thi gian sp ti m hnh ny s
c pht trin nhiu cc thnh ph ln nc ta.
2.1 S lc v d n :
2.1.1 Tng quan v khu phc hp Dynamic Plaza ti qun Tn Bnh TP.HCM.
Trong nhng nm gn y nhu cu v cn h cao cp, cao c vn phng v trung tm
thng mi tng ln ng k do s pht trin nhanh ca kinh t thnh ph H Ch
Minh. Bn cnh qun Tn Bnh l qun c dn s ng nht ti TP.HCM do
nhu cu v nh v trung tm thng mi rt cao. p ng nhu cu , khu phc
hp Dynamic Plaza gm trung tm thng mai, cao c vn phng, khch sn v cn
h bn ta lc ti giao l Trng Chinh Hong Vn Th thuc qun Tn Bnh
TP.HCM m ch u t hng n. D n s ng vai tr l trung tm mua bn, gii
tr, nh cao cp v khch sn sang trng bc nht ti Qun Tn Bnh. D n c din
tch rng 1 hcta to lc ti giao l Trng Chinh Hong Vn Th, mt trong
nhng trc ng chnh ni qun Tn Bnh vi cc qun 1,3, 11, 12, Ph N hun.
y l mt v tr rt thun li pht trin cn h cao cp, cao c vn phng, trung
tm thng mi cng nh khch sn.
2.1.2 nh hng u t d n
tng ban u ca ch u t l pht trin 4 hng mc nh sau: cn h bn, trung
tm thng mi, vn phng cho thu v khch sn. Tuy nhin d n mang tnh
kh thi cao ngoi cc yu t nh v tr, cht lng d n, qui m d n th yu t la
chn cc hng mc u t cng ng mt vai tr kh quan trng. N h u t nn
xem xt n yu t l nn u t vo nhng hng mc no v sn phNm dch v sp

22

cung ng cho th trng c im no ni bt vt tri hn so vi cc sn phNm dch

v hin ang cung cp, i tng khch hng m d n s hng ti l tng lp c
thu nhp thp, thu nhp trung bnh hay thu nhp cao, iu tra tc tng trng
hin ti v d bo c tc tng trng trong tng lai ca ngnh ngh, lnh vc
m chng ta ang c nh tham giav hin nay c bao nhiu d n tng t ang
c pht trin trong khu vc ln cn v ti thnh ph, gi c ca cc d n mang
tnh tng ng, nhn nh v xu hng ca th trng Tt c nhng thng tin ny
cc nh u t phi quan tm u tin trc khi quyt nh thnh lp mt d n.
Vi v tr chin lc nh trn ch u t mong mun pht trin d n thnh mt khu
phc hp cao cp bc nht ti qun Tn Bnh bao gm cc hng mc: cn h cao cp,
cao c vn phng, trung tm thng mi v mt khch sn 3-5 sao. Vic pht trin tt
c cc hng mc nh trn vo d n hay s mt hoc mt vi hng mc trn vo d
n ph thuc vo vic nghin cu v d on th trng ti thi im hin ti v
tng lai.
2.1.3 Nhng thng s c bn ban u ca d n
Bng 2.1: Thng s c bn v d n
Thng s

S liu

n v

10.000

m2

Tng cao (khng gm tng hm)

19

tng

Tng hm

tng

Mt xy dng

60%

Tng din tch sn

102.000

m2

H s s dng t

10

ln

Tng din tch tng hm

12.000

m2

t giao thng & cy xanh

4.000

m2

Din tch t

2.1.4 Vn u t d kin v phng n huy ng vn u t cho d n

Tng s vn u t ban u ca d n d kin l 115 triu USD. C cu ngun vn
v phng n huy ng c th hin nh sau:

23

Bng 2.2: Vn u t d kin

Ngun vn

T l

S vn (triu

Phng n huy ng

USD)
Vn ch s hu ban u

15%

17,25

- Pht hnh c phn thng

Vay n

25%

28,75

- Vay ngn hng

Huy ng t khch hng

60%

69,00

- Thng qua hnh thc bn

trc cn h khi hon thnh
phn mng

Tng cng

100%

115,0

2. 2 Nghin cu th trng v xut pht trin d n

Thc hin vic nghin cu v th trng cn h cao cp, trung tm thng mi, cao
c vn phng v khch sn 3-5 sao ti TP.HCM m ch u t cn nghin cu trc
khi quyt nh u t vo d n ny l mt phn quan trng trong vic thnh cng
ca d n. Cc thng tin v th trng sau cn phi nghin cu k trc khi thc hin
d n:
9 Tng quan v th trng bt ng sn TP.HCM trong qu kh v hin ti,
9 Th trng cn h bn ti TP.HCM,
9 Th trng cao c vn phng ti TP.HCM,
9 Th trng trung tm thng mi ti TP.HCM,
9 Th trng khch sn ti TP.HCM
Da trn nhng thng tin nghin cu v ngun cung, cu qu kh, hin ti v d
on tng lai a ra nhng d on v cc s liu cn a vo m hnh thNm
nh ti chnh.
2.2.1 Tng quan v th trng bt ng sn TP.HCM thi gian qua v hin ti
Th trng bt ng sn TP.HCM hin ang pht trin nhanh nht c nc tnh tng
s d n v tng s vn u t vo lnh vc ny. Hu ht cc d n ln u tp trung
vo TP.HCM, y c xem l mt th trng y tim nng pht trin cc d n
bt ng sn. Tnh n cui thng 06/2009 tng s vn FDI u t vo lnh vc bt
ng sn thnh ph H Ch Minh l 5,18 t USD chim 24,3% tng vn u t vo

24

bt ng sn c nc. Cc d n m cc nh u t trong v ngoi nc hng n

vo cn h cao cp, khch sn 4-5 sao, trung tm thng mi v cao c vn phng.
y c xem l mt trong nhng lnh vc mang li li nhun cao v ngun cung
khng p ng c nhu cu.
2.2.2 Th trng cn h bn ti TP.HCM
a) Nhu cu
N hu cu v nh ti cc thnh ph ln Vit N am pht trin mnh trong nhng nm
va qua, c bit l ti TPHCM. Theo s liu thng k, t ai dnh cho vic pht
trin v xy dng nh khng p ng nhu cu nh tng nhanh trong thi gian ny
l mt trong nhng nguyn nhn khin gi nh tng nhanh. Di y l cc nguyn
nhn chnh khin nhu cu v nh tng cao ti Thnh ph H Ch Minh.
TP.HCM c tc gia tng dn s nhanh chng (c v gia tng t nhin ln c hc),
iu ny dn n nhu cu v nh tng cao. Tc gia tng dn s bnh qun ca
thnh ph l 3,5%/nm. S liu thng k cho thy nm 2006, dn s thnh ph t
mc hn 7 triu ngi v theo s liu ca S Cng An Thnh ph cung cp, s lng
dn nhp c t cc tnh thnh c ng k tm tr di hn chim 30% tng s dn
ton thnh. Hng nm, dn s TP.HCM tng thm khong 200.000 ngi.
b) Ngun cung
Tnh n nay, ngun cung ca cc khu cn h bn hin i cao cp ti TP.HCM
khong 63 d n c hon thnh v a vo s dng ti TP.HCM vi hn
15.000 cn h. Hu ht trong s l cc khu cn h trung bnh v khng nm ti
khu trung tm thnh ph.
c) Gi bn

25

Hnh 2.1: Lch s gi bn cn h cao cp

S THAY I GI BN CA NHNG D N CN H CAO CP

USD/ m 2
6,000

5,000

5,500

5,200

5,100

5,000
4,000
2,800

3,000
2,000

2,050

1,000

930

2,700

2,400

2,100

2,300

2,190

1,500
1,200

0
2004

2005

2006

2007

Q1/08

luxury

Q2/08

Q3/08

high-end

N gun: CB Richard Ellis

Gi bn cn h c nghin cu bao gm hai loi l cn h sang trng (luxury) v

cn h cao cp (high-end). Cn h sang trng l nhng cn h nm ti trung tm Q1
v c thit k theo tiu chuNn quc t v y tt c cc tin nghi nh khch sn.
Cn h cao cp l nhng cn h ngoi trung tm Q1 v cng c thit k cng nh ni
tht theo tiu chuNn cao cp. Gi bn 2 loi cn h ny tng t bin vo gia nm
2008 v bt u gim xung vo cui nm 2008 theo suy gim ca nn kinh t.
d) xut
T nhng nghin cu trn d n c xut xy dng hai khi cn h cao cp vi
s h quy hoch l 2.000 c dn tng ng vi 530 cn h. i tng khch hng
m d n hng ti l nhng ngi Vit N am c thu nhp cao, nhng Vit kiu v
i tng ngi nc ngoi c mua nh theo N gh nh 181 N CP ca chnh ph.
Gi bn xut ban u l 2.100 USD/ m2. Gi bn xut da trn s so snh ca
nhng d n tng ng cng nh d on nhu cu v cn h cao cp trong tng
lai.
2.2.3 Th trng cao c vn phng ti TP.HCM
a) Nhu cu
Bng 2.3 Nhu cu v gi cho thu cao c vn phng ti TP.HCM
Hng A

Hng B

Hng C

Tng cng

26

Tng nhu cu
Din tch cho thu (m2)
T l cho thu (%)
Gi cho thu (khng bao
gm ph dch v v thu
VAT)

81.054
100%
63 65USD
(din tch
thc)

192.941
100%
40 65USD
(din tch
thc)

204.127
490.851
94%
97%
25 48USD 25 65USD
(din tch
(din tch
thc)
thc)
N gun: CB Richard Ellis

b) Ngun cung
Bng 2.4 Ngun cung cao c vn phng ti TP.HCM
Tng ngun cung
S lng ta nh
Din tch c th cho thu
(m2)
Gi cho thu hng thng
(USD/m2)

Hng A

Hng B

Hng C

Tng cng

5
81.054

18
205.670

98
217.462

121
504.186

44 45USD
(din tch
sn)

29 45USD
(din tch
sn)

18 34USD
(din tch
sn)

18 45 USD
(din tch
sn)

N gun: CB Richard Ellis

N hn tng quan, th trng vn phng TP.HCM ang trong giai on u pht trin
c v ngun cung v cht lng dch v vn phng cho thu. Cng vi tc pht
trin kinh t v qu trnh th ha, th trng cao c vn phng cho thu c u
t xy dng ngy cng nhiu, mang n mt din mo hin i cho Thnh ph.
n thi im cui Q1/2008, Thnh ph H Ch Minh c tt c 135 cao c vn
phng ang hot ng, cung cp 752.418 m2 din tch sn (tng ng 583.356 m2
din tch s dng) trn ton thnh ph. Qun 1, c xem l khu trung tm hnh
chnh thng mi ca thnh ph H Ch Minh, hin l khu vc tp trung nhiu nht
cao c vn phng cho thu cc loi, chim 57% tng din tch vn phng ca ton
thnh ph
Hnh 2.2: Lch s ngun cung vn phng ti TP.HCM

27

LCH S NGUO N CUNG VAN PHONG TPHCM

THO NG QUA DIE N TCH HOA N THA NH M I QUA CA C NA M
sm
800,000
700,000
600,000
500,000
400,000
300,000
200,000
100,000
0
1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

Nguo n cung hie n co

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

Q1.08

Nguo n cung m i

N gun: CB Richard Ellis

c) Gi cho thu
Bng 2.5 Lch s gi cho thu cao c vn phng ti TP.HCM
1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

Hng A

$28,0

$26,5

$25,5

$22,8

$16,5

$19,8

Hng B

$23,0

$21,5

$16,3

$14,5

$15,7

$16,7

Hng C

$22,7

$15,5

$13,7

$10,0

$11,0

$13,2

$23,8

$22,5

$19,3

$17,0

$15,2

$17,2

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

Hng A

$23,5

$24,5

$26,2

$29,0

$33,0

$61,0

Hng B

$17,5

$18,3

$19,0

$20,8

$22,5

$28,5

Hng C

$13,9

$14,7

$15,0

$16,5

$17,8

$22,0

bnh $18,8

$19,4

$20,1

$21,7

$23,2

$31,0

Trung
A,B,C

Trung

bnh

A,B,C

N gun: CB Richard Ellis

28

Qua thng k chng ta thy gi thu vn phng bin ng mnh theo s bin ng
ca nn kinh t. Trong giai on khng hong ti chnh chu nm 1997 gi vn
phng rt mnh, sau mt mt thi gian di nn kinh t phc hi th gi vn phng
tng cao. n nm 2008 nn kinh t c du hiu khng hong th gi vn phng gim
theo.
d) xut
T nhng phn tch trn, d n c xut pht trin cao c vn phng hng B
vi din tch sn l 12.000 m2, p ng nhu cu ca cc cng ty mun m rng mt
bng nhng khng mun thu cc cao c ti trung tm thnh ph vi mc gi kh
cao.
2.2.4 Th trng trung tm thng mi ti TP.HCM
a) Nhu cu:
So vi cc thnh ph trong khu vc nh Singapore, Hng Kng, Bng Cc, Thng
Hi, Manila, Jakarta, th trng bn l Vit N am vn cha pht trin. Theo s liu
thng k, n Qu 1/2008 din tch mt bng bn l ch t khong 140.923 m2, thp
hn nhiu so vi Hng Kng, Manila, Jakarta v Thng Hi.
Hnh 2.3: Ngun cung th trng bn l ti khu vc Chu
NGUN CUNG TH TRNG BN L
TI MT S NC CHU
12,000,000
10,000,000
8,000,000
6,000,000
4,000,000
2,000,000
0
Hong Kong

Manila

Jakarta

Shanghai

TP.HCM

(Ngu n: CB Richard Ellis)

Hin ti, ngun cung cho th trng kinh doanh bn l ti TP.HCM khng p ng
nhu cu v trong giai on 2008-2011 s c khong 350.000m2 mt bng c

29

a vo s dng. n cui nm 2011, tng ngun cung ca th trng bn l

TP.HCM s vo khong 650.000 m2, vn thp hn ngun cung ca cc thnh ph
khc trong khu vc, v thp hn nhu cu ca cc thng hiu quc t ang tm kim
mt bng bn l, nhng nh kinh doanh bn l d nh m rng h thng bn l v
mt s lng ln cc ca hng chuyn bit d nh chuyn t cc cn nh mt tin
ng vo cc trung tm thng mi tng hp, trung tm thng mi, v.v.
N goi ra, chng ta c th tm hiu thm mt vi yu t mang tnh cht tng i
ang gy thm p lc cho mt th trng vn d khan him:
TP.HCM c lng ngi tiu dng tr v ngy cng tinh t hn
Mt trong nhng nhn t chnh to sc hp dn cho tim nng v kinh doanh bn l
ca TP.HCM l lng ngi tiu dng tr di do v ngy cng tinh t hn . Theo
kho st ca S Thng K TP.HCM trong giai on 1999 2004, 55% dn s Thnh
ph tui di 30. Trong 10 nm na, s ngi dn di tui 30 vn s chim
khong 50% dn s. V vy, TP.HMC c xem l mt th trng bn l tim nng
so vi cc thnh ph khc trong khu vc nh vo lng ngi tiu dng tr tim
nng.
Thu nhp ngi dn TP.HCM tip tc tng
Theo hu ht cc nh kinh doanh bn l th gii, thu nhp bnh qun l mt trong
nhng tiu chuNn quan trng quyt nh thm nhp vo mt th trng. Trong
nhng nm gn y, TP.HCM thu ht thm nhiu nh kinh doanh bn l quc t
ni ting nh vo mc thu nhp bnh qun u ngi ang tng cao. Trong bo co
ca S Thng K TP.HCM nm 2006, mc thu nhp bnh qun hng thng tnh trn
u ngi tng ln 92USD/ngi, cao hn nhiu so vi con s
56USD/ngi/thng ca nm 2002, tng n 64%.
N goi ra, s ngi dn c thu nhp cao ti TP.HCM tng trong nhng nm gn
y. Theo kho st ca AC N ielsen, tng lp hng A&B (thu nhp trn 8 triu
ng/thng) t 12%, tng gp i so vi nm 2002. Tng lp trung lu c thu
nhp t 5 8 triu ng/thng) cng tng t 14% nm 2002 ln 39% nm 2006.
Mc thu nhp tng nn thu nhp thc t cng cao hn v ngi tiu dng sn sng
mua cc mt hng khng phi l hng ha c bn v cc sn phNm mang tnh t tha

30

mn nhu cu c nhn. V th yu t ny lm cho nhu cu ca th trng kinh

doanh bn l cng cng nh th trng bt ng sn phc v kinh doanh bn l ti
Thnh ph H Ch Minh cng cao hn.
Hnh 2.4: Thu nhp trung bnh hng thng ti TP.HCM xt theo khu vc
THU NHAP TRUNG BNH A U NGI
HANG THAN G TAI TP.HCM
Quan noi thanh

Huyen ngoai thanh

Toan thanh pho

US$
150

97

100

80
63

50

73
62

56
35

92

45

2002

2004

2006
(Nguon: S thong ke TP.HCM)

31

Hnh 2.5: Thu nhp trung bnh hng thng ti TP.HCM xt theo nm
THU NHP TRUNG BNH TNH TRN U NGI MI THNG

%
100%

6
14

80%

11

12

18

15

23

26

>8 tiu ng

24
30
39

60%

5-8 triu ng

47

48
53

54
58

53

40%

51

2-5 triu ng

43

20%

31

33

21

24
14

0%
2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007F

14

2008F

2009F

<2 triu ng

(Ngun: AC Nielson)

Doanh thu bn l ca TP.HCM tip tc tng

Theo Cc Thng K TP.HCM, doanh thu bn l ca TP.HCM tng 22% so
vi nm 2005, t mc 8,24 t USD. Cc Thng K cng d on doanh thu bn l
ca TP.HCM vn gi mc tng trng tch cc trong khong 20%-25% trong giai
on 20072010.

32

Hnh 2.6: Doanh thu bn l ti TP.HCM

DOANH THU BN L TI TP.HCM

12.00

30.00%

10.00

25.00%

8.00

20.00%

6.00

15.00%

4.00

10.00%

2.00

5.00%

0.00
Doanh thu bn l TP.HCM
T l tng ti TP.HCM

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

5.20

6.09

7.31

8.24

10.40

13.68%

18.11%

21.13%

22.00%

26.60%

0.00%

N gun: CB Richard Ellis

Doanh thu bn l ca TP.HCM tng cho thy Thnh ph l mt th trng bn l c
kh nng sinh li y hp dn. N gy cng c nhiu nh kinh doanh bn l c d nh
thit lp hot ng kinh doanh ti Thnh ph H Ch Minh
b) Ngun cung

N gun cung hin ti

33

Hnh 2.7: Ngun cung bn l hin ti ti TP.HCM

NGUN CUNG HIN HU TRUNG TM THNG MI
TNG HP V TRUNG TM THNG MI
Khu vc nm ngoi khu trung tm thng mi

Khu trung tm thng mi

68, 126

13

7 2 ,7 9 7

12

4 8 ,7 9 7

11

4 8 ,7 9 7

10

66, 846
69, 446
69, 446

4 8 ,7 9 7

69, 446

30,797

54, 776

30,797
37, 776

3 0 ,7 9 7

37, 776

30,797

5
4

4, 000

4, 000

4, 000

24, 176

9,000

9,000
9,000
9,000

1
0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

(Ngu n: CBRE)

N gun cung tng lai

34

Hnh 2.8: Ngun cung bn l trong tng lai ti TP.HCM

NGUON CUNG MAT BANG BAN LE
C TNH TRONG TNG LAI

The Mansion, Huye n Bnh Cha nh

15,036

Dragon City, Nha Be

25,000

2010

2011

Richland Hill, Qua n 9

Saigon Sport City
Qua n 2
Sunrise
Qua n 7
SATRA
Qua n 1
SJC Tower
Qua n 1
Saigon Pearl
Bnh Tha nh

40,000
88,000
30,312
27,000
8,292
30,000

Phu c Ye n Tower, Qua n Ta n Bnh

12,700

Khu thng ma i Ta n Phong, qua n 7

70,000

Saigon M&C
Qua n 1
CapitaLand Vista
Qua n 2
Khu da n c 13C, Huye n Bnh Cha nh

23,000
10,000
3,342
9,500

2009

Tha nh Co n g Tower
Kumho Asiana
Qua n 1
The EverRich
Qua n 11
Peninsula
Qua n 7
Ho a Bnh
Qua n 7
15 Le Tha nh To n
Qua n 1
Times Square
Qua n 1
Paujar
Qua n 11
Ta n a Court Qua n 5

2008

Hoa ng Tha p Plaza, Huye n Bnh Cha nh

Happiness Square
Qua n 1
C.T Plaza
Ta n Bnh
Sailing Tower
Qua n 1
Mirae
Qua n 10
Sa i Go n Paragon
Qua n 7

6,880
24,000
2,000
4,400
12,000
970
25,458
4,300
1,500
11,882
12,185
2,560
15,056
12,000

N gun: CB Richard Ellis

35

d) Gi thu
Hnh 2.9: Lch s gi cho thu mt bng bn l ti Tp.HCM
G I T HU V T L CHO T HU MT BNG BN L T I T P .HCM
(Q1 .2 0 0 8 )

USD/m2/thng
$90.00

101%

$80.00

100%

$70.00

99%

$60.00

98%

$50.00

97%

$40.00

96%

$30.00

95%

$20.00

94%

$10.00

93%

$0.00

92%
1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

Q1.2008

Gi thu trung bnh khu trung tm thng mi

Gi thu trung bnh khu vc ngoi khu trung tm thng mi
T l cho thu

N gun: CB Richard Ellis

e) xut
T nhng phn tch nh trn, d n c xut pht trin mt khu trung tm
thng mi vi din tch sn n 20.000 m2 sn. V tr ca nm tng trt v tng 1
v 2 ca khi ta nh.
2.2.5 Th trng khch sn 3-5 sao ti TP.HCM
a) Nhu cu
V phn khc khch sn 3-5 sao, n nm 2010, tt yu s c hin tng khan him
phng khch sn 3 n 5 sao trong 3 nm ti y. Thnh ph ang ngh thu ht
nhiu u t hp dn hn trong lnh vc khch sn c 3 n 5 sao nh l gii php
lm tng s lng phng tiu chuNn quc t cho du khch.
Tuy nhin, vi s m rng v pht trin ca cc khch sn cao cp, hng lat phng
cht lng cao s c cung cp cho nhu cu Thnh ph trong nm 2010 dn n
s cnh tranh nhiu hn gia cc khch sn hin hu.

36

u nm 2009 vi tnh hnh nn kinh t c tc pht trin chm li do nh hng

ca cuc khng hong kinh t th gii trong ngnh du lch b tc ng mnh m,
chnh ph a ra cc bin php kch cu nh gim 50% gi phng v cc ph vn
chuyn. iu ny hy vng s thu ht mt lng ln khch tr li Vit N am trong thi
k tht lng buc bng nh hin nay.
b) Ngun cung
Thnh ph H Ch Minh c khong 965 khch sn vi tng s 25.769 phng, trong
6.942 phng l ca 42 khch sn t 3-5 sao. Sau y l thng k cc khch sn 3
n 5 sao ti TP.HCM
Hnh 2.10: Thng k khch sn 3-5 sao ti Tp.HCM
S KHCH SN T 3 N 5 SAO NM 2008
Loi

S phng

S khch sn

S phng

5 sao

3.611

11

328

4 sao

1.271

169

3 sao

1.977

23

86

Tng cng

6.942

42
N gun: CB Richard Ellis

28.48
%

52.02
%

19.50
%
5 star

4 - star

3 - star

T kt qu trn cho thy khch sn 3 sao chim t trng ln nht v c nhng li th

ca khch sn nh nh c th p ng nhiu i tng khch hng, gi r do t l
t phng t t l cao. K n l khch sn 5 sao v tm l ca nh u t l u

37

t n 4 sao th c gng u t t chuNn 5 sao. t tiu chuNn 5 sao s c nhiu

thun li trong vic khai thc i tng khch quc t. y l nguyn nhn chnh
dn n t l khch sn 4 sao chim t l nh hn so vi 2 loi cn li. Mc d vy
khch sn 4 sao vn c nhng li th vn c ca n, nh khng qu kn khch hng
nh khch sn 5 sao, t l t phng cng v th m cao hn. Loi khch sn ny
thch hp cho khch Vit N am v khch trong khu vc vn chim t l cao trong tt
c cc loi khch du lch n Vit N am.
Mt c im na cn lu khi la chn xy khch sn l v tr. Yu t ny cng rt
quan trng khi quyt nh n t l t phng. Biu sau th hin s phn b khch
sn hin ti cc qun trong thnh ph.

Dist. 1

Dist. 3

Dist. 5

Tan
Binh
Dist.

Phu
Nhuan
Dist.

Hnh 2.11: Thng k khch sn 3-5 sao phn theo qun ti Tp.HCM
Star 3
Star 4
Star 5
Star 3
Star 4
Star 5
Star 3
Star 4
Star 5
Star 3
Star 4
Star 5
Star 3
Star 4
Star 5
-

1
2
3
2
2
1
18
5

10

15

20

N gun: CB Richard Ellis

T biu trn cho thy khch sn ti v tr Q1 chim n 75% tng s khch sn
trong thnh ph. y l mt im cn ht sc lu khi u t khch sn. Khch sn
trong trung tm thnh ph s gp s cnh tranh khc lit hn so vi cc qun khc
nhng b li s c mt lng khch n nh v khch chi tiu nhiu hn. Trong khi
cc khch sn ti cc qun khng l trung tm s chu t sc p v cnh tranh hn

38

nhng tri li lng khch t hn rt nhiu v khch hng vo cc khch sn khu vc

ny ch yu hn l gii tr.
c) Gi phng bnh qun
Hnh 2.12: Gi phng khch sn bnh qun ti Tp.HCM
$166.7

180.00
160.00

120.00

$134.0

$128.2

140.00

5 star

$108.0

100.00

$95.0

4 star

$80.0

80.00
60.00

$60.1

$53.4

$45.0

3 star

40.00
20.00
0.00

2005

2006

2007

N gun: CB Richard Ellis

Gi phng bnh qun ca khch sn t 3-5 sao trong 3 nm qua tng c 3 loi v
t mc trung bnh 120 USD/ m i vi hng 5 sao, 90,0 vi hng 4 sao v $53,1
vi hng 3 sao. y l mc gi cao so vi mt bng chung ca Vit N am v TPHCM
l trung tm kinh t ln nht nc v s khch sn ti thnh ph cn rt t so vi nhu
cu. Do mt khch sn c xy dng s t c mt t l t phng v mc gi
cao trong tng lai.
d) T l t phng
Bng s liu sau th hin t l t phng bnh qun ca khch sn 3-5 sao ti
TP.HCM. Khch sn cng t sao th t l t phng cng cao. iu ny l hp l v
gi phng khch sn cng thp sao c gi cng thp. y l mt yu t quan trng
la chn hng khch sn pht trin. N u hng cng cao th mc gi cng cao
nhng t l t phng thp v ngc li.

39

Hnh 2.13: T l t phng khch sn bnh qun ti Tp.HCM

84.00%
82.00%

81.50%

80.00%
78.00%

83.33%

82.50%

82.20%
80.90%

77.43%

77.00%

75.30%

76.00%

73.92%

74.00%
72.00%
70.00%
68.00%

2005
5 star

2006
4 star

2007
3 star

N gun: CB Richard Ellis

e) xut
T phn tch trn cho thy ti qun Tn Bnh cha c khch sn no t tiu chuNn
5 sao. Khch hng ca khch sn 5 sao l nhng thng nhn quc t n thnh ph
cng tc. Do h c xu hng ti cc trung tm thnh ph nhm mc ch thun
tin cho cng vic. N goi ra khch du lch cng ti cc khch sn 5 sao khu trung
tm thnh ph c nhng khu vui chi gii tr v mua sm. Mc d qun Tn Bnh gn
sn bay quc t Tn Sn N ht nhng khng phi l qun trung tm, do khng
thch hp pht trin khch sn 5 sao. T nhng phn tch trn, cng vi ch
trng ca thnh ph l ch cp php cho cc d n khch sn 4 n 5 sao ti nhng
khu t vng. Bn cnh vic u t vo mt khch sn 5 sao s tn chi ph hn rt
nhiu so vi khch sn 4 sao. Do d n xut pht trin mt khch sn 4 sao v
s phng cho mt khch sn hng ny thng thng gm 250 phng. S phng
xut da trn s phng nghin cu c hiu qu nht v tiu chuNn ca mt khch sn
khch sn 4 sao trn th gii.
2.3 Phn tch v thm nh ti chnh khu phc hp Dynamic Tn Bnh

40

2.3.1 Phn tch SWOT ca d n

Bng 2.6 Phn tch SWOT ca d n
im mnh (Strength)
-

im yu (Weakness)

V tr p trn ng L Thng -

N m ngoi khu vc vn phng ti

Kit mt trong nhng con ng khu trung tm thng mi ca thnh ph

chnh ca qun Tn Bnh hng v cc qun 5, 10 v 11
-

Trc giao thng ti khu vc d n

thng xy ra ch tc giao thng, c

Gn sn bay quc t Tn Sn N ht, bit l trn trc ng chnh ca Tn

thun tin cho vic kinh doanh khch Bnh hng t khu trung tm thng
sn phc v nhu cu khch trong nc mi thnh ph v pha d n d kin u
v quc t n tham quan Tp.HCM
-

C s h tng pht trin, bao gm h

thng giao thng, in nc, vin thng

v thot nc.
C hi (Opportunity)

Nguy c (Threat)

- Cc v tr xa trung tm ang ni ln - D kin mt lng ngun cung ng

ti TP.HCM

k, vo khong 916.074 m2 s c a

- N hu cu lin tc tng cao t cc cng vo s dng trong 5 nm ti.

ty mi tham gia th trng, cc cng ty - Hn 20 khu t vng trong khu trung
mun m rng hot ng v ln sng tm thng mi ca thnh ph ang ch
cc cng ty trong nc mun chuyn i cc nh u t. Cc khu t ny d
vn phng t cc cn bit th/nh ph kin s c dng u t cc d n
vo cc cao c c cht lng, t cc thng mi bao gm cc hng mc vn
tiu chuNn v vn phng, ch u xe, phng, thng mi, cn h cho thu
lc lng bo v

hoc khch sn.

- N gun cung hn ch tip tc tip din - C xu hng u t cc d n vn

trong ngn hn

phng ti cc khu th mi ti qun 7

- D kin gi thu s t mc k lc ti v Th Thim

khu vc trung tm thng mi ca thnh - Cc qui nh thay i khng th on

41

ph trong mt vi nm ti y

trc nh hng n th trng bt ng

sn

2.3.2 xut cc hng mc u t

i n quyt nh chn la cc hng mc chnh cn a vo d n trc tin phi
cn c trn qui hoch chi tit 1/500 ca d n. Cn c vo y xc nh cc hng
mc no nn c u t ti khu vc ny, tip theo cn c trn nghin cu th trng
xc nh cc hng mc no th trng chp nhn sau khi a vo khai thc.
Da vo phn tch SWOT, v tr thch hp pht trin cc hng mc sau:
9 Khu thng mi
9 Khu cao c vn phng
9 Khu cn h bn
9 Khch sn
Tuy nhin mt d n pht trin qu nhiu hng mc s dn n kh thu c li
nhun cao nht v s c nhng hng mc ph hp vi v tr ny nhng khng ph
hp vi v tr khc. Mt khc u t dn tri vo nhiu hng mc th phi b tr li i
ring cho tng hng mc v i tng khch hng thng l khc nhau. N u cng
mt li i th s to ra s ln xn v khng chuyn nghip cho d n. Mt khu phc
hp c khch hng nh gi cao thng khng qu 3 hng mc. T phn tch trn
chng ta thy c 4 hng mc thch hp pht trin vo khu phc hp Dynamic
Plaza, nh vy s c mt hng mc khng c la chn pht trin.
Do , chng ta phi lp bng thNm nh ti chnh cho 3 phng n sau:
Phng n s 1:
9 Khu thng mi ( b tr tng trt, tng 1 v 2)
9 Khu cn h bn
9 Khu vn phng
Phng n s 2:
9 Khu thng mi (b tr tng trt, tng 1 v 2)
9 Khu vn phng
9 Khu khch sn
Phng n s 3:

42

9 Khu thng mi (b tr tng trt, tng 1 v 2)

9 Khu cn h bn
9 Khu khch sn
N u lp bng phn tch ti chnh cho 3 phng n sau xc nh phng php ti
u bng cch p dng nguyn tc cho cc d n loi tr ln nhau la chn phng
n ti u cho d n th s tn nhiu thi gian mi c th xc nh c. Tuy nhin,
chng ta c th la chn c cc hng mc pht trin l tnh EBIT cho tng
hng mc cn c trn kt qu nghin cu th trng cng nh kt qu d bo. Ch
tiu ny c tnh bng cch ly doanh thu tr chi ph u t v chi ph hot ng
trn mi m2 khi u t vo cc hng mc khc nhau. N u hng mc no hot ng
trong thi gian di th p dng t sut vn ha a dng thu nhp thun v hin
ti.

43

Bng 2.7: So snh EBIT ca mi mt vung khi u t vo cc hng mc khc

nhau
Trung tm

Vn

thng mi
90%

phng
85%

sn
65%

Thi gian hot ng (nm)

46

46

46

Gi cho thu hng thng/m2

38

32

36

456

384

427

20%

20%

30%

364.8

307

299

14%

14%

14%

14%

2.100

2.606

2.194

2.135

750

950

650

1.000

1.350

1.656

1.544

1.135

Hng mc
T l bn/cho thu c nh
Gi bn thc/m2

Cn h
bn
100%
2.100

Tng doanh thu gp hng nm/m2

Chi ph hot ng/ kinh doanh
Tng doanh thu thun hng nm/m2
T sut vn ho/nm
Gi tr li nhun ha/m2
Chi ph u t xy dng (USD/m2)

Khch

EBIT/m2

Kt qu tnh ton bng trn th EBIT trn mi mt vung sn xy dng ca hng

mc khu thng mi l ln nht, khu vn phng, cn h bn v cui cng l hng
mc khch sn. Theo kt qu ny nu mc cu l 100% th ch u t nn u t vo
trung tm thng mi th s mang li li nhun cao nht. Tuy nhin, thc t nhu cu
ca trung tm thng mi gii hn khong 25.000 m2 sn xy dng, mc khc trung
tm thng mi cn cao trn t nht l 6m, nu trung tm thng mi nhiu th
din tch sn gim i do hu ht cc d n cao tng b khng ch chiu cao xy dng.
Do , ch u t cn la chn thm cc hng mc khc pht trin. Vi vic t
sut sinh li ca hai hng mc cn h bn v vn phng cho thu cao nh bng phn
tch trn, ch u t nn chn hai hng mc ny pht trin trong d n.
Do phng n xut cho d n Dynamic Plaza s bao gm:
9 Mt trung tm thng mi t tng trt v tng 1 v 2 ca khi to nh
9 Mt thp vn phng
9 Hai thp cn h bn

44

2.3.3 Phn tch ti chnh v xc nh kt qu u t

2.3.3.1 Nhng thng s c bn
N hng thng s c bn di y c xut cn c vo thng tin nghin cu th
trng v k hoch ban u ca ch u t.
Bng 2.8 Nhng thng s c bn ca d n
Thng s

S liu

Din tch t

n v

10.000

Tng cao (khng gm tng hm)

Tng hm
Mt xy dng

m2

19

tng

tng

60%

102.000

m2

Din tch vn phng

15.600

m2

Din tch tm thng mi

24.000

m2

Din tch cn h

62.400

m2

Tng din tch sn

2.3.3.2 Tin thc hin d n

Tin thc hin d n chim mt phn quan trng trong qu trnh thnh cng ca
d n. Mt d n bt ng sn ni chung v d n bn cn h ni ring ngoi cc yu
t khc th vic a ra th trng ng thi im s gip d n t c gi bn nh
k hoch. D n bt ng sn khc vi cc d n thng thng khc l c th hon
tt trong mt khong thi gian xy dng ngn nhng c thi gian hot ng rt di t
50 nm n 70 nm i vi cc hng mc hot ng.

45

Bng 2.9 K hoch pht trin ca d n

Nm

Hng mc

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014-2038

n b gii ta
Xy tng hm & khu thng mi
Xy khi cn h
Xy khi ta nh vn phng

Thi gian xy dng

Thi gian bn/ kinh doanh

2.3.3.3 Xc nh dng tin ca d n

Dng tin ca d n l mt trong nhng ch tiu quan trng nh gi tnh kh thi
ca d n. Mt d n c nh gi l tt, ng c u t th dng tin thun ca
d n phi dng tc ln hn 0. Chnh v vy, khi xem xt phn tch nh gi mt d
n ngi ta lun quan tm n dng tin thun vn t ra y l dng tin ca
d n c tnh ton c chnh xc khng, ng tin cy khng? Trong bi lun vn
ny chng ta s i su vo phn tch, nh gi dng tin ca d n trong thc t.
Cu thnh ca dng tin thun ca d n bao gm: thay i li nhun hot ng
thun sau thu m d n mang li, thay i chi ph khu hao khi c d n, thay i
vn lun chuyn cn thit h tr cho d n.
Dng tin ca d n s c xc nh theo cng thc sau:
2.3.3.4 Thay i doanh thu ca d n (

R)

D n khu phc hp Dynamic Tn Bnh gm cc hng mc sau: Cn h bn, vn

phng cho thu, trung tm thng mi v ch u xe. c im hot ng ca tng
hng mc khc nhau nh sau:
2.3.3.4.1 Cn h bn
i vi hng mc ny ngi mua s s hu vnh vin cn h mnh mua. Cn h
bn s bao gm hai phn l phn s hu chung v phn s hu ring. Phn s hu
chung l din tch bn trong cn h v c th hin trong giy chng nhn nh ,
phn s hu ring bao gm hnh lang cng cng, cng vin, li i b. N goi ra cn

46

c mt phn s hu chung nhng a s cc d n nc ta phn ny c s hu

bi ch u t l khu cng ng, khu vui chi gii tr phc v c dn trong to
nh.
2.3.3.4.2 Cao c vn phng
y l hng mc ch yu l cho thu. Tuy nhin nhiu ch u t Vit N am a phn
l khng chuyn v qun l v kinh doanh vn phng cho thu cho nn s c 2 cch
kinh doanh sau khi xy dng xong d n:
+ Thu mt n v chuyn v qun l v cho thu vn phng: nhng n v ny s
ng ra tm khch thu, k hp ng vi khch thu cng nh qun l mi hot ng
ca cao c. Ch u t s tr 2 loi chi ph cho n v qun l cao c l chi ph
tip th v chi ph qun l. i khi chi ph qun l s nm trong chi ph thu vn
phng v khch thu s tr trc tip cho nh qun l cao c. Do , trong hp ng
thu cn phi nu r v khon chi ph ny.
+ Bn li cho n v chuyn kinh doanh cao c vn phng: gi bn c xc nh
nh sau. p dng phng php t sut vn ho xc nh gi bn
Gi bn = (Gi cho thu x t l cho thu n nh chi ph hot ng)/ t sut vn ho
Hin nay t sut vn ho ti th trng cao c vn phng Vit N am l 14%, t sut
vn ho ny c tnh bng cch ly t sut sinh li trung bnh ca ngnh kinh doanh
bt ng sn hin nay nc ta.
i vi d n Dynamic Tn Bnh gi bn vn phng cho thu nh sau:
Gi bn vn phng cho thu = [gi cho thu /m2/thng x t l cho thu c
nh x (1-% chi ph hot ng) x s thng trong mt nm]/t sut vn ho
Gi bn vn phng cho thu= [32 USD/m2/thng x 85% ( 1-20%) x 12]/14%= 1.587
USD/m2
2.3.3.4.3 Trung tm thng mi
Cng ging nh vn phng cho thu ch u t cng c th t thu n v qun l
trung tm thng mi cng nh c th bn li mt n v chuyn kinh doanh trung
tm thng mi vi vic p dng phng php ging vi vn phng cho thu xc
nh gi bn.

47

Gi bn trung tm thng mi = [gi cho thu /m2/thng x t l cho thu c

nh x (1-% chi ph hot ng) x s thng trong mt nm]/t sut vn ho
Gi bn trung tm thng mi = [38 USD/m2/thng x 90% x (1-20%) x 12]/14%=
307,2/14%= 1.993 USD/m2
2.3.3.4.4 Ch u xe
Vic kinh doanh ch u xe cng c th c thc hin bng hai cch nh sau:
Thu n v ng ra qun l hot ng bi xe v bn li ch u xe cho n v khc.
+ Trong trng hp ch u t t ng ra kinh doanh bi u xe th s thc hin
nhng vic nh thu n v chuyn kinh doanh bi xe, tr cc chi ph hot ng nh
thu nhn vin, tin in, nc, ph hnh chnh, mua bo him cho bi xe. Chi ph
hot ng ny chim khon 20% tng doanh thu.
+ Trong trng hp ch u t bn li ch u xe th gi bn c xc nh nh sau:
Doanh thu nm/1 ch u xe hi ( 25 m2) = gi gi xe/lt (1-% chi ph hot ng)
x s lt/ngy x t l hot ng c nh x 30 ngy x 12 thng/ t sut vn ho
Doanh thu nm/1 ch u xe hi (25 m2) = [1,3 USD (20.000 VN D) x (1-20%) /lt
x 3 lt/ngy x 80% x 30 ngy x 12 thng]/14% = 6.418 USD/ch u xe
Nhn xt: i vi ch u t khng chuyn th nn bn li cho n v khc chuyn
kinh doanh bi xe h kinh doanh. Ch u t c th dng tin bn c u t vo
cc d n nhm tm kim li nhun tip theo trong lnh vc chuyn mn ca mnh.
2.3.4

Thay i chi ph hot ng ca d n (

O)

Mt trong nhng im khc bit ca mt d n bt ng sn tr hng mc khch sn

vi cc d n khc l chi ph hot ng chim mt phn nh trong chi ph u t,
thng thng chi ph ny bao gm chi ph qun l, chi ph bo tr bo dng, chi ph
in nc, chi ph chung khc tt c cc chi ph ny khng cu thnh nn gi thnh
u t ca sn phNm, dch v v khi sn phNm dch v c tiu th th ngi s
dng s phi tr chi ph ny trc tip cho nh cung cp. N goi ra, trong chi ph hot
ng cn c chi ph bn hng v chi ph qun l doanh nghip.
Chi ph hot ng ca d n khu phc hp Dynamic Plaza c xc nh da vo:

48

Hng mc bn: chi ph hot ng cho khu ny trong qu trnh bn s bao gm chi ph
tip th, chi ph hoa hng bn hng v chi ph khc. Chi ph ny c thng k nh
sau:
9 Chi ph tip th chim 1% trn doanh thu
9 Chi ph hoa hng chim 2% trn doanh thu: chi ph ny ch u t s tr cho cc
cng ty chuyn v tip th v phn phi bt ng sn nh: CB Richard Ellsi, Savills,
Colliers
- Hng mc cho thu: i vi hng mc ny ch u t s phi b ra cc chi ph nh
sau:
9 Chi ph tip th chim 1% trn doanh thu
9 Chi ph hoa hng l mt thng tin thu. Theo thng k s c khong 30% khch
hng s tr li ch trong nm v c ngha l tng ng vi s lng s l khch
hng mi thu li nhng ch ny. Vy chi ph ny s bng:
Chi ph hoa hng = 1/12 x 30% = 2% doanh thu
9 Chi ph vn hnh nhng hng mc ny s chim 15% tng doanh thu.
2.3.5

Thay i chi ph khu hao (

Dep)

y l mt ch tiu c xc nh tng i n gin, ph thuc vo nguyn gi ca

ti sn u t cho d n v phng php s dng trch khu hao. Hin nay ba phng
php trch khu hao c p dng l: Phng php khu hao tuyn tnh c nh SLN (Khu hao ng thng), phng php khu hao tng s (SYD), phng php
khu hao s d gim dn (DDB) mi phng php c u nhc im ring ty theo
c im ca tng doanh nghip tng ngnh m ta la chn phng php khu hao
ph hp. i vi nhng my mc thit b m c t l hao mn v hnh cao do nhanh
b lc hu th phng php khu hao tng s v khu hao s d gim dn l ph hp.
Hn na, khu hao c tc ng ng k n dng tin ca doanh nghip v khu hao
tiu biu cho mt chi ph khng bng tin mt c th c khu tr thu v vy s
tin khu hao trong mt k cng ln thu nhp chu thu ca doanh nghip cng thp,
iu ny rt c ngha khi xc nh ch tiu hin gi dng tin rng ca d n (N PV)
v lm gia tng ch tiu ny do thu nhp ca nhng nm u d n cao.

49

Tu theo phng n kinh doanh sau khi hon thnh cng tc xy dng m c khu
hao nh sau:
2.3.5.1 Phng n tt c cc hng mc u c bn ht sau khi xy dng
i vi phng n ny th chi ph khu hao c tnh bng cch phn b chi ph u
t trn t l doanh thu thu c ca tt c cc hng mc.
Bng 2.10 Bng khu hao ca d n vi phng n bn tt c sau khi xy dng
xong Phng n 2.
Giai on Tng gi tr khu hao
Nm
Hng mc bn
126,445,923
Khu cn h bn
69,212,505
Khu thng mi
26,620,194
Khu vn phng
17,303,126
Khu u xe
13,310,097
Tng cng
126,445,923

1
2009

2
2010
5,916,461
5,916,461

5,916,461

3
2011
32,150,417
32,150,417
5,324,039
3,460,625
2,662,019
43,597,101

4
2012
31,145,627
31,145,627
21,296,155
13,842,501
10,648,078
76,932,362

2.3.5.2 Phng n m hng mc cn h bn, vn phng, khu thng mi v u

xe cho thu
- i vi hng mc cn h bn: v y l hng mc s chuyn giao cho khch hng
ngay sau khi xy dng xong cho nn ton b chi ph u t s c phn b theo t
l doanh thu hng nm.
- i vi hng mc trung tm thng mi, cao c vn phng v bi u xe:
9 Phn cng trnh: y l nhng hng mc hot ng lu di (thng thng 50 nm
v sau gia hn thm 20 nm na) cho nn chi ph pht trin ca cc hng mc ny
s c khu hao theo s nm hot ng. Mc d theo nguyn tc l nh vy nhng
thng thng trong thc t nhng d n bt ng sn thng c khu hao trong 20
n 35 phn nh s gim dn ca gi tr cng trnh theo thi gian.
9 Phn my mc thit b: thit b khu cao c vn phng v trung tm thng mi v
khu u xe c khu hao bng phng php ng thng trong thi gian 10 nm.
Theo thng k trong thc t chi ph ny chim 15% gi tr cng trnh xy dng.
- Gi tr thu hi sau khi thanh l l ca d n ny l 0 v gi tr s dng t c nh
nc giao quyn s dng trong 50 nm. Sau thi gian ny nh nc s thu hi li.
Gi tr cn h, khu vn phng, khu thng mi sau 50 nm s ht hn s dng v gi
tr thanh l s trang tri chi ph thanh l.

Bng 2.11 Bng khu hao ca d n trong 10 nm u vi phng n hot ng sau khi xy dng xong
n v tnh: USD
Giai on
Nm
Hng mc hot ng
Khu thng mi
Khu vn phng
Khu u xe
My mc thit b
Hng mc bn
Khu cn h bn
Tng cng

1
2009
57,996,900
22,929,007
14,903,855
11,464,503
8,699,535
70,135,786
70,135,786

2
2010

3
2011

4
2012

6,160,391
6,160,391
6,160,391

32,414,291
32,414,291
32,414,291

31,561,104
31,561,104
31,561,104

35
35
35
10

5
2013
2,278,450
655,114
425,824
327,557
869,953

6
2014
2,278,450
655,114
425,824
327,557
869,953

7
2015
2,278,450
655,114
425,824
327,557
869,953

8
2016
2,278,450
655,114
425,824
327,557
869,953

9
2017
2,278,450
655,114
425,824
327,557
869,953

10
2018
2,278,450
655,114
425,824
327,557
869,953

2,278,450

2,278,450

2,278,450

2,278,450

2,278,450

2,278,450

51

2.3.6 Thay i li nhun hot ng thun sau thu (

OEAT)

Ch tiu thay i li nhun hot ng thun sau thu l ch tiu phn nh thu nhp
t hot ng u t m d n mang li sau khi tr i thu thu nhp doanh nghip.
Ch tiu ny c tnh ton da trn bng bo co thu nhp d ton hng nm trong
sut i sng kinh t ca d n. Khi xc nh ch tiu li nhun hot ng thun ca
d n ta cn lu ba trng hp ca mt d n:
Sau khi xc nh c chi ph khu hao v chi ph hot ng ca d n ta c th
tnh c li nhun hot ng thun

OEAT ca d n u t cn khu phc hp

qua cng thc:

OEAT = (

R-

O-

Dep) (1-T)

(1) D n u t mi hon ton: trng hp ny th li nhun hot ng thun ca

d n chnh l li nhun cui cng ca d n sau khi tr i cc chi ph ca d n
v thu.
(2) D n u t m rng t d n ban u: trng hp ny th li nhun hot ng
thun ca d n chnh l phn li nhun tng thm t hot ng u t m rng ny
mang li sau khi tr i cc chi ph v thu
(3) D n u t thay th: trng hp ny th li nhun hot ng thun ca d n
l phn li nhun thu c t hot ng u t ca d n sau khi tr i cc chi ph
v thu v tr i phn li nhun ca d n b thay th l ra thu c.
Ch tiu li nhun hot ng thun ca d n c lin quan n ch tiu thay i chi
ph khu hao

Dep v chi ph hot ng ca d n khng tnh khu hao (

OEAT =
OEBT =

V vy xc nh c

Dep)

OEBT(1-T)
R-

O-

Dep

OEAT ta cn phi xc nh c

R,

O v

Dep

Da vo s liu trn ta c bng tnh li nhun hot ng thun theo Ph Lc 1 v

Ph Lc 2 nh km sau lun vn ny.
2.3.7 Vn lun chuyn cn thit cho d n
Trong mt d n bt ng sn vn lun chuyn nhiu hay t tng hay gim l ty
thuc vo:

52

+ Qui m ca d n
+ Kh nng chim dng vn ca cc nh t vn, nh thu ca d n
+ Chim dng vn ca khch hng mua d n
Cc d n u t bt ng sn thng thng nh u t k hp ng vi cc nh t
vn, thit k nh thu ngay t lc ban u. Ring chi ph thit k, t vn ch u t
thng phi thanh ton t u trc khi khi cng d n. Sau ch u t s
thanh ton cho cc nh cung cp dch v theo tin hp ng. Vn ny thng
thng c d tnh trong vn ch s hu b ra ngay t ban u. Vn lun chuyn
ny ch u t s thu li sau khi d n kt thc.
2.3.8 Xc nh dng tin hot ng thun ca d n (NCF)
i vi mt d n, ch tiu m cc nh u t quan tm u tin l dng tin
hot ng thun ca d n. Mt d n c nh gi l kh thi khi c N CF tr i
vn u t ban u ca d n >0, s tin chnh lch chnh l thu nhp ca d n hay
l li nhun m nh u t kim c t d n ny. V vy, cc nh u t lun
lun mong mun N CF cng ln th d n cng ng u t m N CF tng khi li
nhun hot ng thun ca d n tng, khu hao tng v vn lun chuyn u t
cho d n phi gim. Dng tin thun ca d n c xc nh nh sau:
Dng tin thun = Dng tin vo Dng tin ra
Trong :
Dng tin vo bao gm: khon vay v EBITDA
Dng tin ra:chi ph pht trin d n, thanh ton n vay v thu TN DN
Da vo cng thc trn dng tin thun ca d n s c xc nh theo Ph Lc 1
v Ph Lc 2 trong phn cui ca ti ny.
2.3.9 Kt qu kinh doanh ca d n
2.3.9.1Phng n 1: Cho thu hng mc vn phng, trung tm thng mi v
ch u xe.

53

Hin gi thun ca D n (NPV)

T sut thu hi ni b (IRR)
Ch s sinh li (PI)
Thi gian hon vn (PP)
Thi gian hon vn c chit khu (DPP)

16.492.465
19,8%
1,18
7,03
10,32

2.3.9.2Phng n 2: Bn li tt c cc hng mc sau khi u t xy dng.

Hin gi thun ca D n (NPV)
T sut thu hi ni b (IRR)
Ch s sinh li (PI)
Thi gian hon vn (PP)
Thi gian hon vn c chit khu (DPP)

8.188.853
31,6%
1,09
3,37
3,64

2.3.10 Nhn xt kt qu t c
Phng n 1 c N PV ln hn phng n 2. Tuy nhin phng n 2 li c IRR ln
hn phng n 1. Trng hp ny nu ch da vo hai ch tiu ny th nh u t s
rt kh khn la chn phng n u t. Do , chng ta s dng thm mt ch
tiu na l ch s sinh li PI. Trong 2 phng n ny th r rng phng n 1 c PI
ln hn phng n 2. Do phng n 1 s l phng n tt hn phng n 2. Tuy
nhin nh phn tch trn tu theo khNu v ca ch u t m s quyt nh la
chn phng n no u t. Phng n 2 c N PV v PI thp hn phng n 1
tuy nhin li c thi gian hon vn ngn hn v c IRR cao hn nhiu so vi
phng n 1. Phng n 2 thch hp vi nhng nh u t khng chuyn trong lnh
vc kinh doanh bt ng sn ch tm kim li nhun trong vic xy dng xong ri
bn li tt c. Phng n 1 thch hp vi nhng nh u t am him v hot ng
ca lnh vc vn phng, trung tm thng mi. N hng nh u t ny chp nhn
thi gian hon vn lu hn kim c N PV cao hn.
2.3.11 Phn tch ri ro ca d n
2.3.11.1 Phn tch nhy (Sensitivity Analysis)
Vic phn tch nhy s da trn phn tch yu t trng yu nh hng n kt
qu kinh doanh ca d n. Thng thng cc yu t c tc ng ln n kt qu
kinh doanh ca d n bt ng sn bao gm:

54

N hu cu i vi bt ng sn gim st, c bit l nhu cu cn h cao cp,

vn phng cho thu, trung tm thng mi gim st khin cho u ra ca sn phNm

khng th bn hoc cho thu ht.

Gi bn cn h, gi thu vn phng, gi thu trung tm thng mi gim st

lm cho kt qu kinh doanh ca d n khng t hiu qu. c bit, gi bn cn h

khng nh k hoch s lm vn u t vo d n tng hn so vi d kin v ch u
t khng th s dng tin t vic bn cn h u t tip vo d n.

Chi ph u vo gia tng c bit l chi ph vt liu v nhn cng.

T l lm pht cao s lm thu nhp thc t ca ngi dn gim i do s

nh hng n nhu cu sn phNm.

Chi ph s dng vn cng s nh hng n kt qu kinh doanh ca d n

c bit cc d n s dng vn vay. Trong nm 2008, vn vay ngn hng vo

khong 18%/nm lm cho nhiu doanh nghip bt ng sn lm vo cnh khn
n, nhiu d n b nh tr, nhiu ch u phi bn li d n cho ch u t khc.
i vi d n Dynamic qun Tn Bnh, yu t trng yu nh hng n kt qu
kinh doanh ca d n l chi ph xy dng v gi bn cn h cao cp. Sau y l cc
bc thc hin phn tch nhy:
+ xc nh bin thay i ca cc bin thng qua s liu thng k trong qu
kh s dng phng php c lng khong hay cn gi l phng php khong
tin cy theo cng thc:
X - < m < X +

Trong :
X : gi tr trung bnh ca bin
X=

1
(Xi) vi i=1n
n

: chnh xc ca c lng
= u1 / 2

= uy

55

Vi tin cy 1- cho trc, tra bng phn v chuNn ta s tm c gi tr phn v

chuNn u y = u1 / 2
: lch chuNn. Trong trng hp cc bin ng xc sut ta c:

( Xi X )

n 1

Gi bn cn h bn:

Gi bn cn h hng A qua cc nm:

STT
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10

N m
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999

Gi bn bnh qun
2.300
2.400
1.500
1.200
930
750
720
650
600
580

Tng/Giam
-4,17%
60,00%
25,00%
29,03%
24,00%
4,17%
10,77%
8,33%
3,45%

c lng khong thay i ca gi bn cn h bn hng A trong thi gian ti vi

tin cy 95%.
T s liu trn ta c X =17,84%, chuNn =3,35%
tin cy 1-=95%, tra bng phn v chuNn ta c uy=u0,975=1,96

= u y

=1,96

17,84%
= 11,66%
9

Vy khong tin cy ca gi bn cn h cao cp l (17,84%-11,66%;

17,84%+11,66%;) hay (6,18%;29,50%)

Chi ph xy dng qua cc nm:

STT
1
2
3
4

Nm
2008
2007
2006
2005

Tng/Gim
+30.15%
+15.17%
-3.25%
-6.15%

56

5
2004
c lng khong thay i ca chi ph xy dng trong thi gian ti vi tin cy
95%.
T s liu trn ta c X =8,23%, chuNn =2,19%
tin cy 1-=95%, tra bng phn v chuNn ta c uy=u0,975=1,96

= u y

=1,96

2,19%
= 1,92%
5

Vy khong tin cy ca chi ph xy dng l (8,23%-1,92%; 8,23%+1,92%)

hay (6,31%;10,15%)
Phn tch nhy nh hng ln N PV:
Bng 2.14 Phn tch nhy bi nhn t bin i chi ph xy dng v gi bn cn

Thay i gi bn cn h (%/nm)

h nh hng ln N PV
16.492.465
6,18%
8,51%
10,84%
13,18%
15,51%
17,84%
20,17%
22,50%
24,84%
27,17%
29,50%

6,31%
10.165.359
11.676.762
13.233.449
14.836.522
16.487.102
18.186.329
19.935.359
21.735.371
23.587.560
25.493.143
27.453.353

6,69%
9.829.751
11.341.139
12.897.812
14.500.870
16.151.436
17.850.648
19.599.665
21.399.663
23.251.839
25.157.409
27.117.606

7,08%
9.492.601
11.003.974
12.560.632
14.163.676
15.814.227
17.513.425
19.262.428
21.062.413
22.914.576
24.820.132
26.780.316

Thay i chi ph xy dng (%/nm)

7,46%
7,85%
8,23%
9.153.905
8.813.660
8.463.747
10.665.264
10.325.003
9.983.189
12.221.906
11.881.631
11.539.802
13.824.936
13.484.645
13.142.802
15.475.473
15.135.168
14.793.310
17.174.657
16.834.338
16.492.465
18.923.646
18.583.313
18.241.426
20.723.617
20.383.270
20.041.370
22.575.766
22.235.406
21.893.492
24.481.309
24.140.936
23.799.008
26.441.480
26.101.094
25.759.153

8,61%
8.086.906
9.639.817
11.196.415
12.799.400
14.449.893
16.149.034
17.897.981
19.697.911
21.550.020
23.455.523
25.415.654

9,00%
7.708.265
9.294.884
10.851.466
12.454.437
14.104.915
15.804.042
17.552.975
19.352.891
21.204.985
23.110.475
25.070.594

9,38%
7.327.821
8.948.386
10.504.953
12.107.908
13.758.372
15.457.484
17.206.403
19.006.304
20.858.385
22.763.861
24.723.967

9,77%
6.945.568
8.574.680
10.156.869
11.759.810
13.410.259
15.109.356
16.858.261
18.658.148
20.510.216
22.415.678
24.375.770

10,15%
6.561.502
8.190.607
9.807.213
11.410.138
13.060.572
14.759.655
16.508.545
18.308.419
20.160.472
22.065.921
24.025.999

Phn tch nhy nh hng trn IRR:

Bng 2.15 Phn tch nhy bi nhn t bin i chi ph xy dng v gi bn cn

Thay i gi bn cn h (%/nm)

h nh hng ln IRR
19,82%
6,18%
8,51%
10,84%
13,18%
15,51%
17,84%
20,17%
22,50%
24,84%
27,17%
29,50%

6,31%
15,7%
16,6%
17,6%
18,7%
19,8%
21,0%
22,4%
23,8%
25,3%
27,0%
28,8%

6,69%
15,5%
16,4%
17,4%
18,5%
19,6%
20,8%
22,1%
23,5%
25,0%
26,7%
28,5%

7,08%
15,3%
16,2%
17,2%
18,2%
19,3%
20,5%
21,8%
23,2%
24,8%
26,4%
28,2%

Thay i chi ph xy dng (%/nm)

7,46%
7,85%
8,23%
15,1%
15,0%
14,8%
16,0%
15,8%
15,6%
17,0%
16,8%
16,6%
18,0%
17,8%
17,6%
19,1%
18,9%
18,6%
20,3%
20,1%
19,8%
21,6%
21,3%
21,1%
23,0%
22,7%
22,4%
24,5%
24,2%
23,9%
26,1%
25,8%
25,5%
27,9%
27,5%
27,2%

8,61%
14,5%
15,4%
16,4%
17,3%
18,4%
19,6%
20,8%
22,2%
23,6%
25,2%
26,9%

9,00%
14,3%
15,2%
16,1%
17,1%
18,2%
19,3%
20,6%
21,9%
23,4%
24,9%
26,6%

9,38%
14,1%
15,0%
15,9%
16,9%
18,0%
19,1%
20,3%
21,6%
23,1%
24,6%
26,3%

9,77%
13,9%
14,8%
15,7%
16,7%
17,7%
18,9%
20,1%
21,4%
22,8%
24,3%
26,0%

10,15%
13,7%
14,6%
15,5%
16,5%
17,5%
18,6%
19,8%
21,1%
22,5%
24,1%
25,7%

Nhn xt:
Da trn phn tch nhy ta c th a ra nhn xt nh sau:
- Chi ph xy dng tng nu cc yu t khc khng i s lm hiu qu ca d n
gim xung. N u kim sot c chi ph xy dng tt d n c th t c ch s
IRR l 24,4%.

57

- S thay i gi bn cn h nh hng ng k n kt qu. iu chng t kt

qu rt nhy vi bin s gi bn cn h. Qua , ch u t nn lu n yu t
ny, nn chn thi im thch hp tung sn phNm ra th trng nhm t c
gi bn tt nh k hoch.
2.3.11.2 Phn tch tnh hung (Scenario Analysis)
Phn tch nhy ch phn tch c ti a 2 yu t thay i. Do , khng phn
nh ht nhng tc ng ca nhiu yu t xy ra cng mt lc. gii quyt c
vn ny chng ta s dng cng c phn tch tnh hung. Cng c ny ging vi
phng php phn tch nhy, trc tin l phi xc nh c cc yu t trng
yu s nh hng n kt qu. Sau kt hp nhiu yu t thay i ny s tm ra
c trng hp no d n t c hiu qu cao nht.
Trong d n Dynamic Tn Bnh chng ta phn tch bin ng ca kt qu d n do
s tc ng ca cc yu t sau: gi bn cn h, chi ph xy dng, gi thu vn
phng v gi cho thu trung tm thng mi.

Gi thu vn phng hng A qua cc nm:

STT

Nm

2008

Gi thu bnh
qun (USD)
40,00

2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13

2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996

61,00
33,00
29,00
26,20
24,50
23,50
19,80
16,50
22,80
25,50
26,50
28,00

Tng/Gim
-34,43%
84,85%
13,79%
10,69%
6,94%
4,26%
18,69%
20,00%
-27,63%
-10,59%
-3,77%
-5,36%

58

c lng khong thay i ca gi thu vn phng hng B trong thi gian ti vi

tin cy 95%.
T s liu trn ta c X =6,45%, chuNn =8,27%
tin cy 1-=95%, tra bng phn v chuNn ta c uy=u0,975=1,96

= u y

=1,96

8,27%
= 4,68%
12

Vy khong tin cy ca gi bn cn h cao cp l (6,45%-4,68%;

6,45%+4,68%) hay (1,77%;11,13%)

Gi thu trung tm thng mi qua cc nm:

STT

N m

Gi thu bnh qun

Tng/Gim

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13

2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996

48
68
60
80
68
59
43
49
30
30
80
80
80

-29,41%
13,33%
-25,00%
17,65%
15,25%
37,21%
-12,24%
63,33%
0,00%
-62,50%
0,00%
0,00%

c lng khong thay i ca gi thu trung tm thng mi trong thi gian ti

vi tin cy 95%.
T s liu trn ta c X =1,47%, chuNn =9,70%
tin cy 1-=95%, tra bng phn v chuNn ta c uy=u0,975=1,96

= = u y

=1,96

9,70%
= 5,73%
12

Vy khong tin cy ca gi thu trung tm thng mi l (1,47%-5,73%;

1,47%+5,73%) hay (- 4,62%;7,20%)

59

T s liu c lng trn, ta c bng phn tch tnh hung cho cc thng s sau tc
ng cng mt lc ln kt qu ca d n l: gi bn cn h, gi cho thu vn phng,
gi cho thu trung tm thng mi v chi ph xy dng.
Bng 2.16 Phn tch tnh hung ca d n
Scenario Summary
Changing Cells:
Thay i chi ph xy dng
Thay i gi bn cn h
Thay i gi cho thu vn phng
Thay i gi cho thu khu thng mi
Result Cells:
Hin gi thun ca D n (NPV)
T sut thu hi ni b (IRR)
Ch s sinh li (PI)
Thi gian hon vn (PP)
Thi gian hon vn c chit khu (DPP)

Current Values:

Trng hp xu nht

Trng hp d xy ra nht

Trng hp tt nht

8,23%
17,84%
6,45%
1,47%

6,31%
6,18%
-4,63%
1,77%

8,23%
17,84%
6,45%
1,47%

10,15%
29,50%
7,20%
11,13%

16.492.465
19,82%
1,18
7,03
10,32

10.485.512
17,78%
1,11
7,21
10,92

16.492.465
19,82%
1,18
7,03
10,32

32.644.086
23,71%
1,35
6,77
9,42

2.3.11.3 Phn tch m phng (Monte Carlo Slim)

Phn tch m phng Monter Carlo l mt phng php phn tch ri ro ca d n c
chnh xc cao hn hai phng php phn tch nghin cu trn do s ln th
nhiu hn, c tnh n cc phn phi xc sut khc nhau v cc min gi tr tim
nng khc nhau i vi cc bin chnh ca d n, cho php c tng quan (cng
bin thin) gia cc bin. Phng php phn tch m phng Monter Carlo c
thc hin trn bng tnh Excel c h tr ca phn mm Crystal Ball.
Trnh t phn tch m phng bng Crystal Ball gm ba ni dung chnh: (1) nh
ngha bin gi thuyt, (2) nh ngha bin d bo, (3) din dch kt qu.
2.3.11.3.1 nh ngha bin gi thuyt
nh ngha mt gi thuyt cho mt gi tr bng cch chn mt phn phi xc
sut m t tnh khng chc chn ca d liu trong , trong thc t chn mt phn
phi xc sut ng cn phi:
- Xc nh bin cn phn tch v lit k tt c nhng g chng ta bit v cc iu
kin xung quanh cc bin ny. Chng ta c th thu thp cc thng tin c gi tr v
bin khng chc chn t d liu trong qu kh.
- Xem xt phn m t mt cch chi tit tng dng phn phi xc sut, iu kin c
bn la chn phn phi xc sut m t cho bin.
- La chn mt phn phi c trng cho bin, mt phn phi c coi l c trng
cho bin khi cc iu kin ca phn phi p ng c cc iu kin ca bin

60

nh ngha bin gi thuyt cho mt gi tr ta thc hin cc bc sau:

9 Chn gi tr cn nh ngha.
9 Chn thc n Define Assumption khi trn mn hnh s xut hin bng phn
phi xc sut ta la chn hm phn phi xc sut.
9 Tnh cc s liu yu cu cho tng hm phn phi xc sut chn.
nh ngha bin gi thuyt ca 4 bin ca khu phc hp Dynamic Plaza l: chi ph
xy dng, gi bn cn h cao cp, gi cho thu vn phng v gi cho thu trung tm
thng mi
a) Bin gi thuyt chi ph xy dng
Ta s dng hm phn phi chuNn m t bin gi thuyt chi ph xy dng ca d
n v bin ny tha 3 iu kin ca dng phn phi ny:
9 Mt s gi tr ca bin khng chc chn c kh nng xut hin nhiu y l gi
tr trung bnh ca bin
9 Kh nng m bin khng chc chn c gi tr ln hn tr trung bnh cng bng
vi kh nng m n c gi tr nh hn tr trung bnh
9 Cc gi tr ca bin khng chc chn c kh nng xut hin nhiu vng ln
cn ca gi tr trung bnh hn l xa gi tr.
Gi tr trung bnh Mean= 8,23%, lch chuNn l Std Dev=2,20%

b) Bin gi thuyt gi bn cn h cao cp:

Ta s dng hm phn phi chuNn m t bin gi thuyt gi bn cn h cao cp
gi tr trung bnh Mean= 17,84%, lch chuNn l Std Dev=3,35%

61

c) Bin gi thuyt gi thu trung bnh trung tm thng mi:

Ta s dng hm phn phi chuNn m t bin gi thuyt gi cho thu trung tm
thng mi gi tr trung bnh Mean= 1,47%, lch chuNn l Std Dev=9,70%

d) Bin gi cho thu vn phng:

Ta s dng hm phn phi chuNn m t bin gi thuyt gi cho thu vn phng
gi tr trung bnh Mean= 6,45%, lch chuNn l Std Dev=8,27%

62

2.3.12.3.2 nh ngha bin d bo

Sau khi nh ngha cc gi thuyt, chng ta cn phi nh ngha d bo. Cc
d bo thng cha cng thc tham chiu n mt hoc nhiu gi thuyt. Cc
d bo phi hp cc gi tr trong cc gi thuyt to ra kt qu mong mun.
Trnh t nh ngha d bo nh sau:
9 Chn kt qu d bo cn hin th
9 Chn Define Forecast trong thc n Cell. Hp thai nh ngha d bo s hin
th
9 in cc thng tin vo d bo
Forecast N ame-> t tn cho bin d bo
Units: nhp n v tnh ca bin
nh ngha bin d bo ca hai kt qu ca d n khu phc hp Dynamic Plaza:
bin N PV v IRR ca d n.
(1)

nh ngha bin d bo N PV ca d n

(2)

T sut sinh li ni b ca d n (IRR):

63

2.3.12.3.3 Chy m phng

Sau khi nh ngha cc gi thuyt v d bo ca m hnh bng tnh th sn
sng chy m phng. Trong khi chy m phng trong Crystal Ball chng ta c th
dng, tip tc hoc ti lp m phng bt k lc no, c th hin th th d bo i
vi mi d bo.
Trc khi chy m phng cn phi thit lp s tng thch khi chy bng cng c
Run Preferences

Bao gm cc ni dung sau:

- Maximum N umber of Trial: s ln th ti a ca m hnh
- Dng li nu chnh xc ca m phng t 95%
- N gng m phng nu xy ra sai xt tnh tan.
2.3.12.3.4 Din dch kt qu m phng bng th d bo
Khi chy m phng Crystal Ball to ra mt th d bo cho mi bin d bo bng
cch s dng cc phn phi tn s. Mt phn phi tn s cho thy con s hay s cc
gi tr xy ra trong mt khong nhm cho trc. Sau khi chy m phng t c

64

s ln th theo yu cu, Crystal Ball s cho kt qu ca cc bin d bo, c 5 dng

xem kt qu chy m phng:
9 Dng thng k (Statistics)
9 Dng phn trm (Percentiles)
9 Dng biu tn s (Freqcency chart)
9 Dng biu tch ly (Cumulative chart)
9 Dng biu tch ly nghch o (Reverse Cumulative chart)
Trong nm dng trn ch c bn dng u l thng dng nht, dng biu tch ly
nghch o t thng dng, cn dng biu tn s l mc nhin kt qu cho ra sau
khi chy. hiu r hn v th d bo ta xem cc thnh phn ca mt th d
bo nh sau:
Xt th d bo ca bin dng ngn lu rng ca d n Dynamic Plaza (N PV)
Hnh 3.1: th d bo dng ngn lu rng ca d n

Theo mc nh, khong hin th bao gm tt c gi tr cch gi tr trung bnh mt

khong bng 3 ln lch chuNn (xp x 98,734% cc gi tr d bo). Crystal Ball
s lm trn khong hin th sang s nguyn k tip v th cc gi tr nm ngoi c
th b loi ra khi khong hin th. S lng cc gi tr nm ngoi c trnh by
gc trn bn phi. S lng s ln chy m phng cho d bo ny c trnh by
gc trn bn tri ca th. Khong hin th l khong cch tuyn tnh t u mi
tn bn tri n mi tn bn phi v th d bo cng din t khong chc chn
cho d bo. Ct bn phi ca th biu din s ln xut hin thng xuyn cc kt
qu bn di ca bin, chng hn nh trong 30.000 kt qu chy m phng th c

65

1.700 ln N PV ca d n bng 16,5 triu USD v y cng l gi tr xut hin

thng xuyn nht, c biu din trn th l gi tr trung bnh ca bin N PV.
Ct pha bn tay tri ca th d bo biu din xc sut t gi tr ca bin trong
khong cho trc, chng hn ti gi tr trung bnh ca bin N PV trn th th hin
0.06 ngha l c hi t gi tr ny trong khong cho trc l 6%.
Xt th d bo ca bin IRR ca d n Dynamic Plaza
Hnh 3.2: th d bo IRR ca d n

Trong 30.000 kt qu chy m phng th c 1.400 ln IRR ca d n bng 19% v

y cng l gi tr xut hin thng xuyn nht, c biu din trn th l gi tr
trung bnh ca bin IRR. Ct pha bn tay tri ca th d bo biu din xc sut
t gi tr ca bin trong khong cho trc, ti gi tr trung bnh ca bin IRR trn
th th hin 0.05 ngha l c hi t gi tr ny trong khong cho trc l 5%.
2.3.12.3.5 ngha th d bo trong phn tch ri ro
Da vo th d bo ta c th xc nh mc chc chn ca cc bin d n vi
cc bin gi thuyt thay i trong khong cho trc, t chng ta c th xc nh
khong gi tr no l d n c ri ro v mc ri ro ca d n l bao nhiu phn
trm so vi tng th.
Hnh 3.3: Xc nh t l chc chn NPV ca d n

66

Xt th d bo ca bin N PV ca d n, ta thy gi tr ca bin ny thay i t 0

USD n 60 triu USD, gi tr trung bnh ca bin 16,5 triu USD. N u ta loi tr
cc gi tr m ca bin ny th c 98,734% l gi tr N PV ca d n >0, ngha l ch
c 1,266% l d n ny b l mt kh nng thu hi vn u t ban u.
Hnh 3.4: Xc nh t l chc chn t sut sinh li ni b (IRR) ca d n

Xt th d bo ca bin t sut sinh li ni b ca d n, ta thy gi tr ca bin

ny thay i t 0% n 30%, gi tr trung bnh ca bin 19%. N u ta loi tr cc gi
tr c IRR thp hn t sut chit khu l 16% th c 85,099% l gi tr IRR ca d
n >t sut chit khu, ngha l ch c 14,99% l d n ny c IRR< T sut chit
khu.

KT LUN CHNG II
u t vo bt ng sn cn s vn rt ln, sau khi u t ri th kh c c hi
sa cha. Do , ch u t cn c mt phng php ng tin cy chn la
nhng hng mc u t ph hp vi khu t ca mnh. N goi ra cn phi xc nh

67

c nhng phng n kinh doanh khc nhau sau khi xy dng xong d n. N h
u t cn nm r phng php chuyn i t gi cho thu sang gi bn hp l
nhm cn i li mc tiu ca mnh. Xc nh c ng gi bn ny s gip nh
bn c sn phNm vi gi th trng bn cnh nh u t cng c c s so
snh c phng n no s hiu qu hn. Qua , chn phng n kinh doanh hp
l ph hp vi mc tiu ca mnh.
Bn cnh i khi cc ch tiu N PV v IRR cha c s ra quyt nh chn
la d n no trong trng hp hai d n loi tr nhau v d n ny c N PV cao
nhng IRR thp v ngc li d n loi tr kia c N PV thp nhng IRR cao. Trong
trng hp ny chng ta nn p dng thm ch s sinh li PI quyt nh chn
phng n no.
N goi ra, trong thc t nhiu bo co kh thi ch dng li vic tnh ton ra cc ch
tiu ti chnh m qun i vic phn tch nhng ri ro m d n c th b tc ng.
Ba phng php phn tch ri ro l phn tch nhy, phn tch tnh hung v phn
tch m phng gip cho cc nh u t c ci nhn tng qut hn v d n u t
ca mnh. Qua , an tm hn trong cng tc ra quyt nh u t vo d n.

68

CHNG 3: GII PHP NHM HON THIN PHNG PHP

THM NNH TI CHNH D N U T V KINH DOANH
BT NG SN PHC HP
3.1 nh hng pht trin th trng bt ng sn nc ta trong thi gian ti
Qu trnh nhn thc ca nc ta v t ai v bt ng sn trong tin trnh i mi
rt vt v. Giai on 1986 - 1992, mi ch i mi c ch s dng t sn xut
nng nghip da trn chnh sch giao t cho h gia nh, c nhn trc tip sn xut
s dng n nh lu di trong qun tnh ca t duy bao cp. Giai on 1993 2003, trong vi nm u trng tm i mi chnh sch t ai vn ch tp trung ch
yu vo kin to nn sn xut hng ho trong nng nghip trn c s N h nc trao
cho ngi s dng t sn xut nng nghip, t 5 quyn chuyn i, chuyn
nhng, cho thu, tha k, th chp v xc nh t c gi do N h nc quy nh
(Lut t ai 1993). Bo co Chnh tr ti i hi ng kho VIII (1996) quyt
nh ch trng pht trin th trng bt ng sn vi ni dung ch yu l qun l
cht ch t ai v th trng bt ng sn; thc hin ng Lut t ai v hon
chnh h thng php lut v t ai; xc nh ng gi t trong giao t, cho thu
t; khc phc tnh trng u c t v nhng tiu cc, yu km trong qun l v s
dng t; chm lo gii quyt vn nh cho nhn dn; pht trin cc DN nh
nc v khuyn khch cc thnh phn kinh t tham gia xy dng kinh doanh nh
theo s hng dn v qun l ca N h nc.
Bo co chnh tr ti i hi ng kho IX (2001) quyt nh ch trng v th
trng bt ng sn vi ni dung ch yu l hnh thnh v pht trin th trng bt
ng sn theo quy nh ca php lut; tng bc m th trng bt ng sn cho
ngi nc ngoi tham gia u t. Ch trng c iu chnh nhm to vn pht
trin hng ho bt ng sn t ngoi lc. Du mc i mi quan trng v th trng
bt ng sn l N gh quyt s 26-N Q/T ngy 12/3/2003 ca Hi ngh ln th 7
Ban Chp hnh T ng kho IX v tip tc i mi chnh sch, php lut v t
ai trong thi k Ny mnh cng nghip ho, hin i ho t nc. N gh quyt

69

quyt nh nhiu ni dung i mi, trong c ni dung quan trng l t ai

khng ch l ti nguyn qu gi, l t liu sn xut c bit, m cn l ngun ni lc
v ngun vn to ln ca t nc. Ch trng tm thy ngun vn u t t ni
lc ang tim Nn trong t ai v bt ng sn. Lut t ai nm 2003 quyt
nh p dng c ch 1 gi t ph hp vi gi t trn th trng trong iu kin
bnh thng v a ra h thng chnh sch t ai nhm Ny mnh qu trnh u
t pht trin kinh t phi nng nghip, ng thi bo m i sng, vic lm cho
ngi sn xut nng nghip b thu hi t.
3.2 Gii php hon thin phng php thm nh ti chnh d n u t v
kinh doanh bt ng sn phc hp
c th ca cc d n bt ng sn l vn u t rt ln. Do , khi u t ri th
rt t c hi sa cha. T kinh nghim thc t tc gi xut mt s gii php v
kin ngh di y nhm hon thin m hnh thNm nh cc d n bt ng sn
phc hp.
Th nht: cc chnh sch thu v bt ng sn phi nht qun
D n bt ng sn tng i khc vi cc d n khc l thi gian xy dng ngn
nhng thi gian hot ng rt di. d n c th kh thi trong giai on thNm
nh nhng qua thi gian do s thay i ca chnh sch lm cho d n khng cn
kh thi. Trong nhiu trng hp nhng thay i chnh sch ny lm nhiu nh u
t t lm n c li nhun chuyn sang thua l. Gn y nht l hai cng vn ca
tng cc thu lin quan n vic gp vn l bt ng sn:
Cng vn s 2926 TC/TCT ngy 14/03/2005 nu r i vi ti sn gp vn
thnh lp doanh nghip, ti sn iu chuyn gia cc n v thnh vin trong
doanh nghip, phn phi, hp nht trong trng hp chia tch doanh nghip,
st nhp, hp nht, i tn doanh nghip, khng thuc i tng np thu gi
tr gia tng v thu thu nhp doanh nghip
Tuy nhin vo ngy 21/08/2009 B Ti Chnh li c cng vn s 11769 BTCTCT v vic x l chnh lch li do nh gi li ti sn th Trng hp doanh

70

nghip c pht sinh khon chnh lch do nh gi li ti sn c nh khi gp

vn lin doanh, lin kt t nm 2008 tr v trc phi tnh thu thu nhp doanh
nghip nhng cha tnh thu thu nhp doanh nghip th khon chnh lch do
nh gi li ti sn c nh c phn b dn vo thu nhp khc khi xc nh
thu nhp chu thu ca k tnh thu nm 2009 tr i v khon thu thu nhp
doanh nghip ny khng phi tnh pht np chm. Cng theo cng vn ny th
trng hp chnh lch do nh gi li quyn s dng t gp vn vo cc
d n u t xy dng nh, h tng bn c pht sinh thu nhp th khon
chnh lch do nh gi li quyn s dng t phi tnh vo thu nhp khc khi
xc nh thu nhp chu thu thu nhp doanh nghip
N h vy 2 cng vn nu ln cng mt vn nhng ni dung li khc nhau hon
ton. Trong khi cng vn 2926 TC/TCT ngy 14/03/2005 nu r vic gp vn
thnh lp doanh nghip th khng phi np thu thu nhp doanh nghip. iu ny
c ngha l cc gp vn c nh gi li hay khng nh gi li u khng phi ng
thu thu nhp doanh nghip. T cng vn ny cc doanh nghip hoch ton vo
s sch ca mnh m khng bao gm thu TN DN trn. N hiu d n u t xy
dng v kt thc. Trong khi cng vn 11769 BTC-TCT ngy 21/08/09 th qui
nh vic nh gi li gp vn thnh lp doanh nghip th phi tnh thu thu nhp
doanh nghip trn phn chnh lch ny v hi t li cho khong thi gian trc khi
ngh nh ny ra i. T cng vn ny rt nhiu doanh nghip c nhiu cng vn
kin ngh ln B Ti Chnh v vn ny nhng n nay cng cha c vn bn no
nh chnh cng vn 11769 BTC-TCT c. i vi cc d n bt ng sn c xy
dng trc nm 2008 cc doanh nghip bt ng sn hin nay khng bit phi x l
th no v gi tr gp bt ng sn vo thnh lp lin doanh, doanh nghip mi
trc kia hu nh khng tnh n khon thu ny.
Th hai: cc chnh sch thu v bt ng sn phi d hiu v d p dng
Vic ra cc vn bn v bt ng sn cn phi r rng trnh vic ai c xong vn bn
th hiu sao cng c, hoc khng bit phi p dng nh th no. Gn y nht l
Thng t 161/2009/TT-BTC ca B Ti Chnh hng dn v thu thu nhp c nhn

71

i vi mt s trng hp chuyn nhng, nhn tha k, nhn qu tng l bt ng

sn v Cng vn 3929/TCT-TN CN v vic thu thu nhp c nhn i vi chuyn
nhng bt ng sn, trong qui nh v hai mc thu sut phi ng khi chuyn
nhng hp ng gp vn l 2% trn tng gi tr hp ng chuyn nhng trong
trng hp khng xc nh c gi vn v 25% trn gi bn tr i gi mua trong
trng hp chuyn nhng nhiu ln. Tuy nhin nh th no l nhiu ln chuyn
nhng th khng thy 2 vn bn ny hng dn. C hai mc thu sut nhng
ngi dn khng c quyn la chn mc thu ng m c quan thu s xc
nh cch ng thu no c li cho N h nc th n nh cch ngi dn
ng. T s hng dn khng r rng ny nn mi ni hiu mi khc v ngi dn
phi ch i rt lu c ng thu v nhiu ni khng bit tnh thu th no
nn gi h s v k khai thu ca ngi dn rt lu. iu ny dn n ri ro cho cc
nh u t v d n khng th chuyn nhng do s khng r rng ca chnh sch
thu ny. Theo xut ca tc gi nn chn mt mc thu sut c nh l 2% trong
thi gian p dng ban u, trong khi p dng nn tng bc hng tt c cc giao
dch bt ng sn phi qua sn. Thi gian sau nn chuyn dn sang p dng
mc thu sut trn li nhun thu c.
Th ba: n gin ho nhng th tc v u t bt ng sn
Hin nay cc th tc v cp php u t tuy c nhiu thay i nhng vn cn rc
ri. Mt d n t khi xin php u t n khi nhn c giy php u t thng
din ra t 12 n 24 thng. Vi thi gian ko di v phi qua rt nhiu ca th c
hi ca nh u t tri i mt. a s cc thng s a vo d n da trn yu t
th trng nhng thi gian ko di qu th nhng yu t ny khc xa so vi lc lp
d n. Hin nay theo qui nh xin c giy chng nhn u t nh u t cn t
nht 45 ngy. H s xin giy chng nhn u t np ti S K Hoch u T,
phng nhn h s nhn xong chuyn sang chuyn vin phng thNm nh u t, sau
h s chuyn sang ph phng u t, sau c chuyn ln trng phng u
t, sau c chuyn ln ph gim c s k hoch u t, sau c chuyn
ln gim c s k hoch u t, sau c chuyn qua chuyn vin thNm nh d

72

n Thnh ph, sau c chuyn ln trng phng thNm nh u t, sau h s

c chuyn sang Ch tch u ban nhn dn thnh ph. Do nhn c giy
chng nhn u t nh u t phi ch i rt lu i khi nh u t s chuyn sang
th trng khc v c hi u t sau khi xin c giy chng nhn u t s mt i.
o , theo xut ca tc gi cn 10-15 ngy sau khi nh u t np y h s
xin giy chng nhn u t. Hn th na, khng cn thit phi chuyn sang u
ban nhn dn k h s m gim c s k hoch u t nn c u quyn k
mi giy chng nhn u t v s k hoch u t hiu hn ai ht l h s xin giy
chng nhn u t l hp l hay khng.
Th t: minh bch ho th trng bt ng sn
Minh bch ho th trng bt ng sn l iu kin th trng bt ng sn pht
trin bn vng v gim thiu ri ro cho nh u t. Vic nhng giao dch trn th
trng c cng khai ho s gip cho cc chnh sch ca nh nc s i st vi th
trng. N goi ra iu ny s gip cho cc t chc xy dng c nhng ch s bt
ng sn chnh xc. Hin nay cc giao dch bt ng sn trong thc t hu ht l cc
c nhn t mua bn v tho thun gi vi nhau, khi lm hp ng thng khai thp
hn gi giao dch. Vic ny s to iu kin trnh phi np thu cao. N goi ra
nhng thng tin giao dch ny khi c cng b s lm sai lch thng tin cho th
trng. Hin nay, cc nh u t bt ng sn da vo thng tin khng chnh xc
nn nhng nhn nh v phn on s sai lch so vi thc t. xut ca tc gi l
Ny nhanh tin cp giy chng nhn quyn s dng t cho cc bt ng sn v
gng m s cho tt c bt ng sn. Bn cnh xy dng h thng d liu bt
ng sn trn c nc, khi c bin ng v bt ng sn th cp nht thng tin vo
h thng d liu. Tng bc bt buc cc thanh ton cho giao dch bt ng sn nn
thc hin thng qua chuyn khon ngn hng.
Th nm: a dng ho ngun vn cho th trng bt ng sn
Mt c im ca bt ng sn l cn rt nhiu vn do a dng ho ngun vn l
mt yu cu th trng bt ng sn pht trin bn vng. Khi thNm nh d n
u t, nh u t thng d tnh ngun vn l s huy ng c vi chi ph nh

73

th. Tuy nhin, trong thc t v c qu t ngun vn nn nu khng huy ng c

vn vi chi ph c tnh th nh u t phi chp nhn huy ng vn vi chi ph cao
hn rt nhiu nu khng mun d n ca mnh b nh tr. N h nc nn pht trin
cc ngun ti chnh c kh nng cho vay di hn l cc qu thu ht c ngun tin
tit kim di hn ca t nhn nh qu hu tr, ph bo him ng vo cc cng ty
bo him, c bit l cc qu tn thc bt ng sn (REIT - Real Estate Investment
Trust). y l loi hnh thu ht tin tit kim t cc nhng i tng c thu nhp n
nh v bn vng.
Th su: c tnh ngun vn chnh xc v chun b y
Vn u t cho bt ng sn thng rt ln, do hu ht cc ch u t khi u t
vo d n bt ng sn thng s dng n vay ngn hng phn ln. Bn cnh
i vi cc d n cn h ch u t s dng phn nhiu vn t s ng trc ca
khch hng.
Xc nh lng vn cn thit cho d n c th hon tt vic xy dng. i vi d
n bt ng sn vn u t thng rt ln v thi gian u t v khai thc thng
rt lu. Do , ch u t cn phi chuNn b trc khi lp thNm nh. Thm vo
theo ngh nh 153/N -CP qui nh ch u t phi c t nht t 15% i vi d n
di 20 hecta v 20% vn ch s hu vi d n rng hn 20 hecta khi thc hin d
n. Hn na theo ngh nh 181/N CP ch u t ch c quyn huy ng vn
ca khch hng sau khi hon thnh xong phn mng v huy ng ti a 70%
theo tin thc hin d n, 30% phn cn li ch c huy ng sau khi bn
giao nh. hon thnh phn mng phi mt t 6 n 12 thng v thng thng chi
ph xy dng phn mng chim 25% n 30% gi tr ca cng trnh. Do trong
iu kin m cc ngn hng tht cht tn dng th ch u t khng th tm u ra
ngun vn tip tc pht trin. Vn l yu t quan trng nht trong qu trnh thit
lp cng nh trin khai d n, c mt d n thnh cng iu u tin v quan
trng nht l phi c vn. Mt d n bt ng sn c lng vn cn thit th
mi m bo tin thi cng cng trnh. Do , m bo yu t vn, cc d n
u t phi xc nh lng vn cn thit trong mt thi gian hp l. Cc nh u t

74

cn phi tnh ton lng vn trn c s hp l ha cc chi ph cn thit nh ch ph

u t ban u, vn lun chuyn trong sut vng i ca d n, tnh hnh kinh
doanh trong tng giai on ca d n.
Th by: bo m an ton cho ngi lao ng cng nh cng trnh trong qu
trnh xy dng, mua bo him cho ngi lao ng v cng trnh xy dng.
Thi gian gn y cc cng trnh xy dng thng xy ra nhng tai nn cht ngi.
N guyn nhn do cc ch u t t quan tm n an ton trong xy dng hoc nu c
quan tm th thng rt ch trng giai on ban u v t quan tm trong giai
on v sau. Thc t hin nay l hu ht cc d n bt ng sn no nc ta trong
qu trnh thi cng u xy ra tai nn. N hiu d n b cc c quan c thNm quyn tm
ngng trong thi gian rt di do gy ra nhng tai nn ny. N hiu ch u t phi
thu l nng v nhng tai nn trong qu trnh xy dng. Do , ch u t mua bo
him cho cng trnh v ngi lai ng, ban hnh nhng tiu chuNn v an ton lao
ng v gim st cht ch t khi bt u thi cng n khi kt thc d n.
3.3 Kin ngh hon thin phng php thm nh ti chnh d n u t v
kinh doanh bt ng sn phc hp
Kin ngh i vi Nh nc:
9 Trc khi ra mt vn bn no cn phi thng k li tt c nhng vn bn cn
hiu lc hin hnh nhm trnh vic vn bn ra i sau qui nh ngc li vi
vn bn ra i trc. Bn cnh , cc chnh sch v bt ng sn nn trnh vic
hi t nhm trnh ri ro cho nh u t v cng nhm trnh vi phm cc nguyn
tc chung ca lut php.
9 N n c nhng b phn nghin cu th trng c nhng c s ban hnh chnh
sch trc thc t, trnh trng hp chnh sch lun i sau thc t.
9 Cc vn bn ra i cn phi ly kin t nhiu ban ngnh c th thc thi
c khi p dng trong thc tin, trnh trng hp c ban hnh vn bn khi p
dng sai n u sa n .
9 N n c b phn sn sng tr li nhng thc mc cho nh u t
9 N n sm lp qu tn thc bt ng sn (REIT - Real Estate Investment Trust)

75

9 N h nc nn x l nghim cc v li dng quyn hn cu kt vi nhau

nhm gip nh u c ginh c gi u thu thp. Bn cnh cn c qui
nh v vic pht cc nh u t trong trng hp trng u gi nhng khng
thc hin d n.
9 N n giao d n cho nhng nh u t c nng lc ti chnh thc s trnh giao
cho nhng nh u t ch chuyn mua i bn li d n lm cho chi ph u vo
tng ln rt nhiu kt qu l sn phNm u ra gi rt cao. Hu qu l nh u t
gp nhiu ri ro do bn khng c sn phNm, ngi tiu dng phi mua sn
phNm vi gi qu cao.
9 Gim thiu cc th tc v cp php xy dng, thNm nh d n nhm gim thiu
ri ro cho nh u t khi d n ko di hn d kin.
Kin ngh i vi nh u t:
9 Trc khi u t cn tm hiu k v lut php bt ng sn, nhng qui nh no
khng chc chn th nn c cng vn hi cc ban ngnh c lin quan. N u sau
ny chnh sch v bt ng sn c thay i th cng c c s bo v quyn li
cho mnh.
9 Vic thu thp thng tin nghin cu th trng cn phi tham kho nhiu
ngun thNm nh tnh chnh xc ca thng tin.
9 i vi nh u t khi thc hin giao dch mua bt ng sn phi yu cu ngi
bn khai gi giao dch ng vi gi tr mua bn nhm gim thiu ri ro cho mnh
v sau ng thi gip th trng pht trin minh bch.
9 ChuNn b y vn theo qui nh ca php lut nhm gip d n xy dng
ng tin .
9 Thc hin tt an ton lao ng nh mua bo him cho cng trnh v ngi lao
ng, thc hin mc tiu cng trng khng tai nn v c nhng phn thng
xng ng cho nhng c nhn t tt mc tiu ny.

76

KT LUN CHNG III

Hin nay th trng bt ng sn nc ta tn ti nhiu yu t lm cho cc nh u
t vo bt ng sn gp phi rui ro nh:
-

S khng nht qun ca cc chnh sch thu bt ng sn trong mi thi k

khc nhau
-

Th trng bt ng sn khng minh bch

Th trng vn cn rt hn ch, rt t ngun vn cho th trng bt ng sn.

Cc vn v cp giy chng nhn quyn s hu t v cc ti sn gn lin

trn t thay i lin tc s tc ng n tnh kh thi ca bt ng sn.

-

Tai nn trong qu trnh thi cng xy dng

Gii quyt c nhng vn trn s gip cho th trng bt ng sn nc ta pht

trin lnh mnh. Cc nh u t s yn tm khi quyt nh u t vo th trng bt
ng sn nc ta v h c th d kin c nhng ri ro cng nh mc ri ro m
h chp nhn c. y cng l nhng iu kin th trng bt ng sn pht
trin tt gp phn gii quyt tnh trng gi nh rt cao so vi thu nhp ca ngi
dn nh hin nay.

77

KT LUN CHUNG
ThNm nh ti chnh bt ng sn l mt trong nhng khu quan trng nht khi
quyt nh u t vo mt d n bt ng sn phc hp. N gy nay nhiu ch u t
phi chi ra hng vi chc ngn n hng trm ngn USD thu cc cng ty
quc t chuyn v lp thNm nh tnh kh thi thNm nh d n ca mnh. iu ny
cho thy cc ch u t ngy cng quan tm n cng tc thNm nh ti chnh ca
d n bt ng sn. Th trng bt ng sn mang li li nhun cao nhng cng
cha ng nhiu ri ro.
Sau khi nghin cu xong ti Xy dng m hnh thNm nh ti chnh d n u
t bt ng sn phc hp ti Vit N am phn no gip ngi c nm c
phng php xy dng mt m hnh thNm nh mt d n bt ng sn phc hp
trong thc t. Phng php kinh doanh bt ng sn trong trng hp ch u t t
kinh doanh v phng php ch u t bn li tt c cc hng mc sau khi xy
dng xong. T vic xc nh cc hng mc cn u t, lp tin d n xy dng,
xc nh cc thng s cn thit a vo m hnh d n n lp mt c cu vn
hp l cho mt d n bt ng sn. N goi ra ti cn gip ngi c hiu cc
phng php phn tch nhng ri ro nhm gip ch u t c ci nhn tng qut
hn v d n trc khi quyt nh u t.
Mong rng lun vn ny s gip cc cng ty u t bt ng sn ti Vit N am c c
s hn lp nn nhng d n thnh cng nhm gip cho th trng bt ng sn
nc ta pht trin nh cc nc trong khu vc.

TI LIU THAM KHO

Ting Vit
1. Trn N gc Th, Ti chnh doanh nghip hin i, N XB Thng K
TP.HCM 2007
2. N guyn Th N gc Trang, Qun tr ri ro ti chnh, N XB Thng K 2006
3. Thi bo kinh t Si Gn s 31,32 & 35/2008
4. Lut kinh doanh bt ng sn nm 2003
5. N gh nh ca chnh ph 181/2004/N -CP ngy 29 thng 10 nm 2004 v
hng dn thi hnh lut t ai
6. N gh nh ca chnh ph 198/2004/N -CP ngy 03 thng 12 nm 2004 v
thu tin s dng t.
7. N gh nh 153/N -CP ngy 15 thng 10 nm 2007 quy nh chi tit v
hng dn thi hnh lut kinh doanh bt ng sn.
8. N gh nh 198/2004/N -CP ngy 03/12/2004 v thu tin s dng t
9. N gh nh 84/2004/N -CP ngy 27/05/2007 qui nh b sung v cp giy
chng nhn quyn s dng t
10. Cng vn 11769/BTC-TCT ngy 21/08/2009 v vic x l chnh lch do
nh gi li ti sn
11. Cng vn 2926/TC-TCT ngy 14/03/2005 v vic chng t, thu i vi
ti sn dch chuyn, gp vn ca doanh nghip
12. "Chnh sch, php lut t ai vi kinh t th trng Vit N am" ca
Gs.Ts Kh. ng Hng V ti Chng trnh Ging dy Kinh t Fulbright
Ting Anh
1. Rose,R., Corporate Finance (2001), Chapter 9: Discount Rate, Sixth
Edition, Yale University
2. Benninga and Sarig (2005), Corporate Finance: A Valuation Approach
3. Tran Tri Dung, Principles of Finance with Excel, Chapter 9: Choosing a
Discount Rate, N ew York Oxford, Oxford University Press.
4. Quarterly Report Q1,Q2,Q3&Q4/2008; Q1,Q2/2009 CB Richard Ellis
(Vietnam)

5. Savills, Hotel Briefing; Retail Briefing; Office Briefing; Apartment for

sale Briefing, Quarter 2- 2007

THM NNH TI CHNH KHU PHC HP DYNAMIC - QUN TN BNH - PHNG N HOT NG
BNG 1
NHNG GI NNH CHNH

Cc hng mc
Cc hng mc bn/cho thu
Khu thng mi
Khu cn h bn
Khu vn phng
Khu u xe ( tng hm)
Cc hng mc khng bn/khng cho th
t giao thng, cy xanh & cnh quan
Tng cng

Thng s k thut khu thng mi

Din tch t
xy dng
(m2)

S tng cao

6.000
6.000
4.800
1.200
6.000
4.000
4.000
10.000,0

S liu

19
4
13
13
2

Tng din tch c th cho thu

20.400

m2

62.400
85

m2
%

Tng din tch c th bn

S cn h bn

53.040
530

m2
s cn

PH LC 1

600
650
550
400

15.840.000
49.077.600
11.419.980
5.280.000

100

400.000
82.017.580

n v

Tng din tch sn xy dng

H s hiu dng

100

24.000
62.400
15.600
12.000

n v
m2
%

Din tch trung bnh ca mi cn h

Tng chi ph
xy dng

Mt xy
dng (%)
60,00%

114.000

24.000
85

S liu

Chi ph xy
dng (USD
mi m2)

40,00%

Khu thng mi (4 tng)

H s hiu dng

Thng s k thut khu cn h bn

Tng din tch

sn xy dng
(m2)

m2

Trang 1 of 13

THM NNH TI CHNH KHU PHC HP DYNAMIC - QUN TN BNH - PHNG N HOT NG
BNG 1
NHNG GI NNH CHNH
Thng s k thut khu cao c vn
phng

S liu

n v

Tng din tch khu vn phng cho thu

H s hiu dng

15.600
85

m2
%

Tng din tch c th cho thu

13.260

m2

Thng s k thut khu u xe

S liu

n v

Tng din tch khu u xe

H s hiu dng

12.000
70

m2
%

Tng din tch c th cho thu

S ch u xe my
S ch u xe hi

8.400
2.016
134

m2
ch
ch

Tc tng gi xy dng
Tc tng gi xy dng

%/nm
8,23%

Tin pht trin

Giai on 1
Tin hnh cc th tc php l
Giai on 2
Hon tt tin trnh tr tin thu/mua
Giai on 3
Xy dng c s h tng v cc khu vc cng cng
Xy dng khu u xe
Xy dng khu thng mi
Xy dng khu cn h bn
Xy dng khu cao c vn phng
Tip th v th tc php l
Thit k, t vn & qun l
D phng ph

PH LC 1

Tng cng

1
2009

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%

100%
30%

40%
40%
20%

2
2010

70%
50%
30%
30%
30%
20%

Trang 2 of 13

3
2011

4
2012

50%
30%
50%
20%
20%
20%

40%
50%
10%
10%
40%

THM NNH TI CHNH KHU PHC HP DYNAMIC - QUN TN BNH - PHNG N HOT NG
BNG 1
NHNG GI NNH CHNH
Chi ph pht trin
Chi ph t
Chi ph s dng t

$2.500

Chi ph cng
Xy dng c s h tng v cc khu vc cng cng
Chi ph n b gii ta
Xy dng khu u xe
Xy dng khu thng mi
Xy dng khu cn h bn
Xy dng khu cao c vn phng
Chi ph mm
Chi ph tip th v th tc php l
Chi ph thit k, t vn & qun l
D phng ph
Tng chi ph pht trin
C cu vn
Tng vn ch s hu
Vn ch s hu
Vn huy ng t khch hng
Cn h bn
Tng n vay
Vay ngn hng
Tng cng

PH LC 1

25.000.000
25.000.000

1
2009
25.000.000
25.000.000

82.017.580
400.000

1.984.000
400.000

28.507.003

33.212.263

32.126.783

5.280.000
15.840.000
49.077.600
11.419.980

1.584.000
-

4.000.181
8.571.816
15.935.006
-

9.277.276
17.246.457
6.688.530

24.887.787
7.238.996

3.772.809
984.211
1.640.352
1.148.246
30.756.809

3.116.668
738.158
1.230.264
1.148.246
31.623.671

2.460.527
492.105
820.176
1.148.246
35.672.791

2.952.633
246.053
410.088
2.296.492
35.079.416

1
2009
22.452.470
22.452.470
8.304.338
8.304.338
30.756.809

2
2010
10.102.215
10.102.215
21.521.455
21.521.455
31.623.671

3
2011
35.672.791
53.155.090
-

4
2012
35.079.416
51.755.977
-

35.672.791

35.079.416

Tng cng

3%
5%
7%

Phn trm
17%
61%
22%
100%

12.302.637
2.460.527
4.100.879
5.741.231
133.132.686
Tng cng
22.452.470
22.452.470
80.854.422
29.825.794
29.825.794
133.132.686

2
2010
-

3
2011
-

Trang 3 of 13

4
2012
-

THM NNH TI CHNH KHU PHC HP DYNAMIC - QUN TN BNH - PHNG N HOT NG
BNG 2
LNCH THANH TON KHON VAY
Khon n vay trong giai on xy dng
Thng
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
Tng cng

PH LC 1

Khon vay/thng
$692.028
$692.028
$692.028
$692.028
$692.028
$692.028
$692.028
$692.028
$692.028
$692.028
$692.028
$692.028
$1.793.455
$1.793.455
$1.793.455
$1.793.455
$1.793.455
$1.793.455
$1.793.455
$1.793.455
$1.793.455
$1.793.455
$1.793.455
$1.793.455
$29.825.794

Khon vay/nm

$8.304.338

$21.521.455

Khon n vay tr dn trong giai on xy dng

Khon vay = $29.825.794
Thng
Rt khon vay
1
$692.028
2
$692.028
3
$692.028
4
$692.028
5
$692.028
6
$692.028
7
$692.028
8
$692.028
9
$692.028
10
$692.028
11
$692.028
12
$692.028
13
$1.793.455
14
$1.793.455
15
$1.793.455
16
$1.793.455
17
$1.793.455
18
$1.793.455
19
$1.793.455
20
$1.793.455
21
$1.793.455
22
$1.793.455
23
$1.793.455
24
$1.793.455
Tng cng

$29.825.794

Li sut
12%
12%
12%
12%
12%
12%
12%
12%
12%
12%
12%
12%
12%
12%
12%
12%
12%
12%
12%
12%
12%
12%
12%
12%

Tng khon vay (Li + gc) =

Li
Khon vay
$692.028
$6.920
$698.948
$13.910
$705.938
$20.969
$712.997
$28.099
$720.127
$35.300
$727.329
$42.574
$734.602
$49.920
$741.948
$57.339
$749.367
$64.833
$756.861
$72.401
$764.430
$80.046
$772.074
$87.766
$1.881.221
$106.579
$1.900.033
$125.579
$1.919.034
$144.769
$1.938.224
$164.152
$1.957.606
$183.728
$1.977.182
$203.500
$1.996.954
$223.469
$2.016.924
$243.638
$2.037.093
$264.009
$2.057.464
$284.584
$2.078.038
$305.364
$2.098.819
$2.809.448

$32.635.242
D n
$692.028
$1.390.977
$2.096.915
$2.809.912
$3.530.039
$4.257.368
$4.991.970
$5.733.918
$6.483.285
$7.240.146
$8.004.576
$8.776.650
$10.657.871
$12.557.904
$14.476.938
$16.415.162
$18.372.768
$20.349.950
$22.346.904
$24.363.828
$26.400.921
$28.458.385
$30.536.423
$32.635.242

Tng khon n
S nm
Li sut/nm
S ln thanh ton/nm
S ln thanh ton

32.635.242
2,5
12%
4
10

STT.

Lch tr n
N gc

Li vay

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10

($2.846.789)
($2.932.192)
($3.020.158)
($3.110.763)
($3.204.086)
($3.300.208)
($3.399.215)
($3.501.191)
($3.606.227)
($3.714.414)

($979.057)
($893.654)
($805.688)
($715.083)
($621.760)
($525.638)
($426.631)
($324.655)
($219.619)
($111.432)

Tng cng

($32.635.242)

($5.623.218)

Tng cng Thanh ton theo

nm
($3.825.846)
($3.825.846)
($3.825.846)
($3.825.846)
($15.303.384)
($3.825.846)
($3.825.846)
($3.825.846)
($3.825.846)
($15.303.384)
($3.825.846)
($3.825.846)
($7.651.692)

$32.635.242

Trang 4 of 13

($38.258.460)

THM NNH TI CHNH KHU PHC HP DYNAMIC - QUN TN BNH - PHNG N HOT NG
BNG 3
DOANH THU V CHI PH D KIN
Giai on
Nm

1
2009

Doanh thu
Khu cn h bn
Khu thng mi
Khu vn phng
Khu u xe
Tng doanh thu
Chi ph
Khu cn h bn
Khu thng mi
Khu vn phng
Khu u xe
Tng chi ph

2
2010

3
2011

4
2012

5
2013

6
2014

7
2015

8
2016

9
2017

10
2018

11
2019

12
2020

13
2021

14
2022

2023 - 2058
16 - 50
2023

10.862.597

57.156.011

55.651.588
4.651.200
4.073.472
1.917.821
66.294.081

6.607.402
4.607.224
2.193.247
13.407.873

8.141.216
4.904.390
2.563.357
15.608.963

8.746.826
5.220.723
2.563.357
16.530.907

8.875.405
5.557.460
2.819.693
17.252.557

9.005.873
5.915.916
2.819.693
17.741.482

9.138.259
6.297.493
3.101.662
18.537.414

9.272.592
6.703.681
3.101.662
19.077.935

9.408.899
7.136.068
3.411.828
19.956.796

9.547.210
7.596.345
3.411.828
20.555.383

9.687.554
8.086.309
3.753.011
21.526.874

9.829.961
8.607.876
3.753.011
22.190.848

1.354.517
921.445
449.616
2.725.578

1.668.949
980.878
525.488
3.175.315

1.793.099
1.044.145
525.488
3.362.732

1.819.458
1.111.492
578.037
3.508.987

1.846.204
1.183.183
578.037
3.607.424

1.873.343
1.259.499
635.841
3.768.682

1.900.881
1.340.736
635.841
3.877.458

1.928.824
1.427.214
699.425
4.055.463

1.957.178
1.519.269
699.425
4.175.872

1.985.949
1.617.262
769.367
4.372.578

2.015.142
1.721.575
769.367
4.506.084

10.862.597

57.156.011

760.382

4.000.921

760.382

4.000.921

3.895.611
953.496
814.694
393.153
6.056.955

10.102.215

53.155.090

60.237.126

10.682.295

12.433.647

13.168.174

13.743.570

14.134.058

14.768.732

15.200.477

15.901.333

16.379.511

17.154.296

17.684.763

Khu hao chi ph pht trin

6.400.782

33.679.163

32.792.683

2.367.359

2.367.359

2.367.359

2.367.359

2.367.359

2.367.359

2.367.359

2.367.359

2.367.359

2.367.359

1.463.459

Thu nhp trc li v thu (EBIT)

3.701.433

19.475.927

27.444.444

8.314.935

10.066.288

10.800.815

11.376.211

11.766.698

12.401.372

12.833.117

13.533.973

14.012.152

14.786.937

16.221.305

3.393.482

1.898.684

331.052

3.701.433

16.082.445

25.545.759

7.983.884

10.066.288

10.800.815

11.376.211

11.766.698

12.401.372

12.833.117

13.533.973

14.012.152

14.786.937

16.221.305

925.358

4.020.611

6.386.440

1.995.971

2.516.572

2.700.204

2.844.053

2.941.675

3.100.343

3.208.279

3.383.493

3.503.038

3.696.734

4.055.326

2.776.075

12.061.834

19.159.320

5.987.913

8.100.611

8.532.158

8.825.024

9.301.029

9.624.838

10.150.480

10.509.114

11.090.203

12.165.979

Thu nhp trc li, thu, khu hao v n (EBITDA)

Li vay
Thu nhp trc thu (EBT)
Thu thu nhp doanh nghip
Li nhun thun

PH LC 1

25%

7.549.716

Trang 5 of 13

THM NNH TI CHNH KHU PHC HP DYNAMIC - QUN TN BNH - PHNG N HOT NG
BNG 4
KHU HAO CHI PH PHT TRIN
Giai on
Nm
Hng mc hot ng
Khu thng mi
Khu vn phng
Khu u xe
My mc thit b
Hng mc bn
Khu cn h bn
Tng cng

PH LC 1

1
2009
60.260.058
23.823.744
15.485.433
11.911.872
9.039.009
72.872.628
72.872.628

2
2010

3
2011

4
2012

6.400.782
6.400.782
6.400.782

33.679.163
33.679.163
33.679.163

32.792.683
32.792.683
32.792.683

35
35
35
10

5
2013
2.367.359
680.678
442.441
340.339
903.901

6
2014
2.367.359
680.678
442.441
340.339
903.901

7
2015
2.367.359
680.678
442.441
340.339
903.901

8
2016
2.367.359
680.678
442.441
340.339
903.901

9
2017
2.367.359
680.678
442.441
340.339
903.901

10
2018
2.367.359
680.678
442.441
340.339
903.901

11
2019
2.367.359
680.678
442.441
340.339
903.901

12
2020
2.367.359
680.678
442.441
340.339
903.901

13
2021
2.367.359
680.678
442.441
340.339
903.901

14
2022
2.367.359
680.678
442.441
340.339
903.901

2.367.359

2.367.359

2.367.359

2.367.359

2.367.359

2.367.359

2.367.359

2.367.359

2.367.359

2.367.359

Trang 6 of 13

2023 - 2058
16 - 50
2023
1.463.459
680.678
442.441
340.339

1.463.459

THM NNH TI CHNH KHU PHC HP DYNAMIC - QUN TN BNH - PHNG N HOT NG
BNG 5
DNG TIN D KIN
Giai on
Nm
Dng tin vo
Rt khon vay
Thu nhp trc li, thu, khu hao (EBITDA)
Tng dng tin vo
Dng tin ra
Chi ph pht trin
Thanh ton khon vay
Thu thu nhp doanh nghip
Tng dng tin ra
Dng tin thun
Dng tin thun cng dn

1
2009

8.304.338

2
2010

8.304.338

21.521.455
10.102.215
31.623.671

30.756.809

31.623.671

3
2011

4
2012

5
2013

Hin gi ca dng tin thun

Hin gi thun ca dng tin 2008-2023
Hin gi thun ca Gi tr cn li
Hin gi thun ca D n (NPV)
T sut thu hi ni b (IRR)
Ch s sinh li (PI)
Thi gian hon vn (PP)
Thi gian hon vn c chit khu (DPP)

PH LC 1

7
2015

8
2016

9
2017

10
2018

11
2019

12
2020

13
2021

14
2022

15-50
2023 - 2058

53.155.090
53.155.090

60.237.126
60.237.126

10.682.295
10.682.295

12.433.647
12.433.647

13.168.174
13.168.174

13.743.570
13.743.570

14.134.058
14.134.058

14.768.732
14.768.732

15.200.477
15.200.477

15.901.333
15.901.333

16.379.511
16.379.511

17.154.296
17.154.296

17.684.763
17.684.763

30.756.809

925.358
32.549.029

35.672.791
15.303.384
4.020.611
54.996.786

35.079.416
15.303.384
6.386.440
56.769.239

7.651.692
1.995.971
9.647.663

2.516.572
2.516.572

2.700.204
2.700.204

2.844.053
2.844.053

2.941.675
2.941.675

3.100.343
3.100.343

3.208.279
3.208.279

3.383.493
3.383.493

3.503.038
3.503.038

3.696.734
3.696.734

4.055.326
4.055.326

(22.452.470)
(22.452.470)

(925.358)
(23.377.829)

(1.841.696)
(25.219.524)

3.467.887
(21.751.638)

1.034.632
(20.717.006)

9.917.075
(10.799.930)

10.467.971
(331.960)

10.899.518
10.567.558

11.192.383
21.759.941

11.668.389
33.428.330

11.992.197
45.420.527

12.517.839
57.938.366

12.876.473
70.814.839

13.457.562
84.272.402

13.629.437
97.901.839

H s chit khu:
H s chit khu:

6,220
0,125

36
14

Gi tr cn li: p dng h s chit khu ca k 2023 cho ton b chu k t 2023 n 2058
Hin gi thun ca Gi tr cn li: p dng h s chit khu
Thi hn (n)
H s hin gi (PVIF)

6
2014

1,0
0,862
(19.355.578)
5.878.815
10.613.650
16.492.465
19,8%
1,18
7,03
10,32

2,0
0,743
(687.692)

3,0
0,641
(1.179.897)

16%
16%

84.776.724
10.613.650

4,0
0,552

5,0
0,476

6,0
0,410

7,0
0,354

8,0
0,305

9,0
0,263

10,0
0,227

11,0
0,195

12,0
0,168

13,0
0,145

14,0
0,125

1.915.283

492.602

4.070.387

3.703.877

3.324.630

2.943.071

2.645.032

2.343.478

2.108.791

1.870.006

1.684.824

Trang 7 of 13

THM NNH TI CHNH KHU PHC HP DYNAMIC - QUN TN BNH - PHNG N HOT NG
BNG 6
CHI PH V DOANH THU D KIN KHU CN H BN
Khu cn h bn

Nm 2011

n v

Tng cng

Din tch c th bn
T l bn d kin

m2

53.040
100%

Din tch bn c

m2

53.040

1.800

1.800

Q1

Q2

Nm 2012
Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Nm 2013
Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Cn h

USD/m
Gi bn d kin
Tc tng gi (chu k mi nm)
17,8%
TNG DOANH THU
TNG DOANH THU
Chi ph tip th
1%
Chi ph hoa hng
2%
Chi ph php l v dch v
1%
Chi ph khc
3%
Thu nhp trc li, thu v khu hao (EBITDA)
Lch biu thanh ton
Khu cn h bn

PH LC 1

1.800
17,8%
123.670.196
123.670.196
1.236.702
2.473.404
1.236.702
3.710.106
115.013.282

10%
5.304
1.961
8,9%
10.398.810
3.258.779
32.588
65.176
32.588
97.763
3.030.665

10%

10%

5.304
1.961
10.398.810
7.603.818
76.038
152.076
76.038
228.115
7.071.551

5.304
2.135
8,9%
11.326.384
5.873.529
58.735
117.471
58.735
176.206
5.462.382

Nm 2011
Q3/2011
Q4/2011
Q1/2012
Q2/2012
Q3/2012
Q4/2012
Q1/2013
Q2/2013
Q3/2013
Q4/2013

100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%

15%

10%
25%

Trang 8 of 13

5%
5%
30%

10%
5.304
2.135
11.326.384
10.513.388
105.134
210.268
105.134
315.402
9.777.451
Nm 2012
10%
10%
10%
40%

10%
5.304
2.326
8,9%
12.336.698
28.402.075
284.021
568.041
284.021
852.062
26.413.929

5%
5%
5%
5%
45%

10%
5.304
2.326
12.336.698
12.367.020
123.670
247.340
123.670
371.011
11.501.328

10%
10%
10%
10%
10%
55%

10%
5.304
2.533
8,9%
13.437.131
6.183.510
61.835
123.670
61.835
185.505
5.750.664

5%
5%
5%
5%
5%
5%
60%

15%
7.956
2.533
20.155.697
12.367.020
123.670
247.340
123.670
371.011
11.501.328
Nm 2013
10%
10%
10%
10%
10%
10%
10%
70%

15%
7.956
2.759
8,9%
21.953.585
30.917.549
309.175
618.351
309.175
927.526
28.753.321

25%
25%
25%
25%
25%
25%
25%
25%
95%

6.183.510
61.835
123.670
61.835
185.505
5.750.664

5%
5%
5%
5%
5%
5%
5%
5%
5%
100%

THM NNH TI CHNH KHU PHC HP DYNAMIC - QUN TN BNH - PHNG N HOT NG
BNG 7
CHI PH V DOANH THU D KIN KHU THNG MI
Khu thng mi

Giai on
Nm

DOANH THU
T l thu d kin
Din tch thu
Gi thu d kin
Tng doanh thu hng nm
T l tng gi
Chu k tng gi
TNG DOANH THU
CHI PH HOT NG
Ph hoa hng
Ph tip th
Ph bo tr
Chi ph vn hnh
TNG CHI PH
Thu nhp trc li, thu v khu hao (EBITDA)

PH LC 1

2
20.400 m
38 USD/m2/thng
12 thng
1,47%
1 nm

3%
1%
2%
15%

1 thng tin thu

tng doanh thu
tng doanh thu
tng doanh thu

4
2012

5
2013

6
2014

7
2015

8
2016

9
2017

10
2018

11
2019

12
2020

13
2021

14
2022

2025 - 2058
15
1905

50%

70%

85%

90%

90%

90%

90%

90%

90%

90%

90%

90%

10.200
38,0
4.651.200
1

14.280
38,6
6.607.402
1

17.340
39,1
8.141.216
1

18.360
39,7
8.746.826
1

18.360
40,3
8.875.405
1

18.360
40,9
9.005.873
1

18.360
41,5
9.138.259
1

18.360
42,1
9.272.592
1

18.360
42,7
9.408.899
1

18.360
43,3
9.547.210
1

18.360
44,0
9.687.554
1

18.360
44,6
9.829.961
1

4.651.200

6.607.402

8.141.216

8.746.826

8.875.405

9.005.873

9.138.259

9.272.592

9.408.899

9.547.210

9.687.554

9.829.961

116.280
46.512
93.024
697.680
953.496

165.185
66.074
132.148
991.110
1.354.517

203.530
81.412
162.824
1.221.182
1.668.949

218.671
87.468
174.937
1.312.024
1.793.099

221.885
88.754
177.508
1.331.311
1.819.458

225.147
90.059
180.117
1.350.881
1.846.204

228.456
91.383
182.765
1.370.739
1.873.343

231.815
92.726
185.452
1.390.889
1.900.881

235.222
94.089
188.178
1.411.335
1.928.824

238.680
95.472
190.944
1.432.081
1.957.178

242.189
96.876
193.751
1.453.133
1.985.949

245.749
98.300
196.599
1.474.494
2.015.142

3.697.704

5.252.884

6.472.266

6.953.727

7.055.947

7.159.669

7.264.916

7.371.710

7.480.075

7.590.032

7.701.605

7.814.819

Trang 9 of 13

THM NNH TI CHNH KHU PHC HP DYNAMIC - QUN TN BNH - PHNG N HOT NG
BNG 8
CHI PH V DOANH THU D KIN KHU VN PHNG
KHU VN PHNG

Giai on
Nm

4
2012

5
2013

6
2014

7
2015

8
2016

9
2017

10
2018

11
2019

12
2020

13
2021

2023 - 2058
14
15
2022
2023

80%

85%

85%

85%

85%

85%

85%

85%

85%

85%

85%

85%

10.608
32,0

11.271
34,1

11.271
36,3

11.271
38,6

11.271
41,1

11.271
43,7

11.271
46,6

11.271
49,6

11.271
52,8

11.271
56,2

11.271
59,8

11.271
63,6

DOANH THU
Vn phng
T l thu d kin
Din tch thu
Gi thu d kin
Tc tng gi
Chi k tng gi
Tng doanh thu mi thng
Doanh thu t khu vn phng
TNG DOANH THU
CHI PH HOT NG
Ph hoa hng cho thu
Ph tip th
Chi ph duy tu bo dng
Chi ph vn hnh
TNG DOANH THU

13.260 m
32 USD/m2/thng
6,45%
1 nm
12 thng

2%
1%
2%
15%

Thu nhp trc li, thu v khu hao (EBITDA)

PH LC 1

tng doanh thu

tng doanh thu
tng doanh thu
tng doanh thu

339.456
4.073.472
4.073.472

383.935
4.607.224
4.607.224

408.699
4.904.390
4.904.390

435.060
5.220.723
5.220.723

463.122
5.557.460
5.557.460

492.993
5.915.916
5.915.916

524.791
6.297.493
6.297.493

558.640
6.703.681
6.703.681

594.672
7.136.068
7.136.068

633.029
7.596.345
7.596.345

673.859
8.086.309
8.086.309

717.323
8.607.876
8.607.876

81.469
40.735
81.469
611.021
814.694

92.144
46.072
92.144
691.084
921.445

98.088
49.044
98.088
735.659
980.878

104.414
52.207
104.414
783.108
1.044.145

111.149
55.575
111.149
833.619
1.111.492

118.318
59.159
118.318
887.387
1.183.183

125.950
62.975
125.950
944.624
1.259.499

134.074
67.037
134.074
1.005.552
1.340.736

142.721
71.361
142.721
1.070.410
1.427.214

151.927
75.963
151.927
1.139.452
1.519.269

161.726
80.863
161.726
1.212.946
1.617.262

172.158
86.079
172.158
1.291.181
1.721.575

3.258.778

3.685.779

3.923.512

4.176.579

4.445.968

4.732.733

5.037.994

5.362.945

5.708.855

6.077.076

6.469.047

6.886.301

Trang 10 of 13

THM NNH TI CHNH KHU PHC HP DYNAMIC - QUN TN BNH - PHNG N HOT NG
BNG 9
CHI PH V DOANH THU D KIN BI U XE
Bi u xe
DOANH THU
Khu gi xe - tng hm
T l u xe d kin
S ch u xe t
S lt u xe trong ngy
Ph u xe t
Tng ph u xe mi ngy
S ch u xe mt
S lt u xe trong ngy
Ph u xe m t
Tng ph u xe mi ngy
T l tng gi
Chu k tng gi
TNG DOANH THU HNG NM
CHI PH HOT NG
Ph hoa hng
Ph tip th
Ph bo tr
Chi ph vn hnh
TNG CHI PH
Thu nhp trc li, thu v khu hao (EBITDA)

PH LC 1

Giai on
Nm

2016 ch
3 lt/ ngy
1,25 USD/ch/lt
134 ch
3 lt/ ngy
0,125 USD/ch/lt

4
2012

5
2013

6
2014

7
2015

8
2016

9
2017

10
2018

11
2019

12
2020

13
2021

14
2022

2025 - 2058
15
1905

70%
1.411

80%
1.613

85%
1.714

85%
1.714

85%
1.714

85%
1.714

85%
1.714

85%
1.714

85%
1.714

85%
1.714

85%
1.714

85%
1.714

1,25
5.292
94

1,25
6.048
108

1,38
7.069
114

1,38
7.069
114

1,51
7.775
114

1,51
7.775
114

1,66
8.553
114

1,66
8.553
114

1,83
9.408
114

1,83
9.408
114

2,01
10.349
114

2,01
10.349
114

0,13
35

0,14
44

0,15
52

0,15
52

0,17
57

0,17
57

0,18
63

0,18
63

0,20
69

0,20
69

0,22
76

0,22
76

10%
2 nm

3%
1%
2%
15%

1 thng tin thu

tng doanh thu
tng doanh thu
tng doanh thu

1.917.821

2.193.247

2.563.357

2.563.357

2.819.693

2.819.693

3.101.662

3.101.662

3.411.828

3.411.828

3.753.011

3.753.011

47.946
19.178
38.356
287.673
393.153

54.831
21.932
43.865
328.987
449.616

64.084
25.634
51.267
384.504
525.488

64.084
25.634
51.267
384.504
525.488

70.492
28.197
56.394
422.954
578.037

70.492
28.197
56.394
422.954
578.037

77.542
31.017
62.033
465.249
635.841

77.542
31.017
62.033
465.249
635.841

85.296
34.118
68.237
511.774
699.425

85.296
34.118
68.237
511.774
699.425

93.825
37.530
75.060
562.952
769.367

93.825
37.530
75.060
562.952
769.367

1.524.668

1.743.631

2.037.869

2.037.869

2.241.656

2.241.656

2.465.821

2.465.821

2.712.404

2.712.404

2.983.644

2.983.644

Trang 11 of 13

THM NNH TI CHNH KHU PHC HP DYNAMIC - QUN TN BNH - PHNG N HOT NG
BNG 10

PHN TCH NHY

Thay i gi bn cn h (%/nm)

Thay i gi bn cn h (%/nm)

17,84%
16.492.465
6,18%
8,51%
10,84%
13,18%
15,51%
17,84%
20,17%
22,50%
24,84%
27,17%
29,50%

19,82%
6,18%
8,51%
10,84%
13,18%
15,51%
17,84%
20,17%
22,50%
24,84%
27,17%
29,50%

PH LC 1

8,23%
6,31%
10.165.359
11.676.762
13.233.449
14.836.522
16.487.102
18.186.329
19.935.359
21.735.371
23.587.560
25.493.143
27.453.353

6,31%
15,7%
16,6%
17,6%
18,7%
19,8%
21,0%
22,4%
23,8%
25,3%
27,0%
28,8%

6,69%
9.829.751
11.341.139
12.897.812
14.500.870
16.151.436
17.850.648
19.599.665
21.399.663
23.251.839
25.157.409
27.117.606

6,69%
15,5%
16,4%
17,4%
18,5%
19,6%
20,8%
22,1%
23,5%
25,0%
26,7%
28,5%

7,08%
9.492.601
11.003.974
12.560.632
14.163.676
15.814.227
17.513.425
19.262.428
21.062.413
22.914.576
24.820.132
26.780.316

Thay i chi ph xy dng (%/nm)

7,46%
7,85%
8,23%
9.153.905
8.813.660
8.463.747
10.665.264
10.325.003
9.983.189
12.221.906
11.881.631
11.539.802
13.824.936
13.484.645
13.142.802
15.475.473
15.135.168
14.793.310
17.174.657
16.834.338
16.492.465
18.923.646
18.583.313
18.241.426
20.723.617
20.383.270
20.041.370
22.575.766
22.235.406
21.893.492
24.481.309
24.140.936
23.799.008
26.441.480
26.101.094
25.759.153

8,61%
8.086.906
9.639.817
11.196.415
12.799.400
14.449.893
16.149.034
17.897.981
19.697.911
21.550.020
23.455.523
25.415.654

9,00%
7.708.265
9.294.884
10.851.466
12.454.437
14.104.915
15.804.042
17.552.975
19.352.891
21.204.985
23.110.475
25.070.594

9,38%
7.327.821
8.948.386
10.504.953
12.107.908
13.758.372
15.457.484
17.206.403
19.006.304
20.858.385
22.763.861
24.723.967

9,77%
6.945.568
8.574.680
10.156.869
11.759.810
13.410.259
15.109.356
16.858.261
18.658.148
20.510.216
22.415.678
24.375.770

10,15%
6.561.502
8.190.607
9.807.213
11.410.138
13.060.572
14.759.655
16.508.545
18.308.419
20.160.472
22.065.921
24.025.999

7,08%
15,3%
16,2%
17,2%
18,2%
19,3%
20,5%
21,8%
23,2%
24,8%
26,4%
28,2%

Thay i chi ph xy dng (%/nm)

7,46%
7,85%
8,23%
15,1%
15,0%
14,8%
16,0%
15,8%
15,6%
17,0%
16,8%
16,6%
18,0%
17,8%
17,6%
19,1%
18,9%
18,6%
20,3%
20,1%
19,8%
21,6%
21,3%
21,1%
23,0%
22,7%
22,4%
24,5%
24,2%
23,9%
26,1%
25,8%
25,5%
27,9%
27,5%
27,2%

8,61%
14,5%
15,4%
16,4%
17,3%
18,4%
19,6%
20,8%
22,2%
23,6%
25,2%
26,9%

9,00%
14,3%
15,2%
16,1%
17,1%
18,2%
19,3%
20,6%
21,9%
23,4%
24,9%
26,6%

9,38%
14,1%
15,0%
15,9%
16,9%
18,0%
19,1%
20,3%
21,6%
23,1%
24,6%
26,3%

9,77%
13,9%
14,8%
15,7%
16,7%
17,7%
18,9%
20,1%
21,4%
22,8%
24,3%
26,0%

10,15%
13,7%
14,6%
15,5%
16,5%
17,5%
18,6%
19,8%
21,1%
22,5%
24,1%
25,7%

Trang 12 of 13

THM NNH TI CHNH KHU PHC HP DYNAMIC - QUN TN BNH - PHNG N HOT NG
BNG 11
PHN TCH TNH HUNG

Scenario Summary
Current Values:

Changing Cells:
Thay i chi ph xy dng
8,23%
Thay i gi bn cn h
17,84%
Thay i gi cho thu vn phng
6,45%
Thay i gi cho thu khu thng mi
1,47%
Result Cells:
Hin gi thun ca D n (NPV)
16.492.465
T sut thu hi ni b (IRR)
19,82%
Ch s sinh li (PI)
1,18
Thi gian hon vn (PP)
7,03
Thi gian hon vn c chit khu (DPP
10,32
Notes: Current Values column represents values of changing cells at
time Scenario Summary Report was created. Changing cells for each
scenario are highlighted in gray.

PH LC 1

Trng hp xu nht

Trng hp d xy ra nht

Trng hp tt nht

6,31%
6,18%
-4,63%
1,77%

8,23%
17,84%
6,45%
1,47%

10,15%
29,50%
7,20%
11,13%

10.485.512
17,78%
1,11
7,21
10,92

16.492.465
19,82%
1,18
7,03
10,32

32.644.086
23,71%
1,35
6,77
9,42

Trang 13 of 13

THM NNH TI CHNH KHU PHC HP DYNAMIC - PHNG N BN TT C CC HNG MC

BNG 1
NHNG GI NNH CHNH

Cc hng mc
Cc hng mc bn/cho thu
Khu thng mi
Khu cn h bn
Khu vn phng
Khu u xe ( tng hm)
Cc hng mc khng bn/khng cho thu
t giao thng, cy xanh & cnh quan
Tng cng

Thng s k thut khu thng mi

Din tch t
xy dng (m2)

S tng cao

6.000
6.000
4.800
1.200
6.000
4.000
4.000
10.000,0

S liu

19
4
13
13
2

Tng chi ph
xy dng

Mt xy
dng (%)
60,00%

24.000
62.400
15.600
12.000

114.000

600
650
550
400

15.840.000
49.077.600
11.419.980
5.280.000

100

400.000
82.017.580

n v

24.000
85

m2
%

Tng din tch c th cho thu

20.400

S liu

n v

Tng din tch sn xy dng

H s hiu dng

62.400
85

m2
%

Tng din tch c th bn

S cn h bn

53.040
442

m
s cn

Din tch trung bnh ca mi cn h

120

Thng s k thut khu cao c vn phng

S liu

n v

Tng din tch khu vn phng cho thu

H s hiu dng

15.600
85

m2
%

Tng din tch c th cho thu

13.260

PH LC 2

Chi ph xy
dng (USD
mi m2)

40,00%

Khu thng mi (4 tng)

H s hiu dng

Thng s k thut khu cn h bn

Tng din tch

sn xy dng
(m2)

Trang 1 of 13

THM NNH TI CHNH KHU PHC HP DYNAMIC - PHNG N BN TT C CC HNG MC

BNG 1
NHNG GI NNH CHNH
Thng s k thut khu u xe

S liu

n v

Tng din tch khu u xe

H s hiu dng

12.000
70

m2
%

Tng din tch c th cho thu

S ch u xe my
S ch u xe hi

8.400
2.016
134

m
ch
ch

Tc tng gi xy dng
Tc tng gi xy dng

%/nm
8,23%

Tin pht trin

Giai on 1
Tin hnh cc th tc php l
Giai on 2
Hon tt tin trnh tr tin thu/mua
Giai on 3
Xy dng c s h tng v cc khu vc cng cng
Xy dng khu u xe
Xy dng khu thng mi
Xy dng khu cn h bn
Xy dng khu cao c vn phng
Tip th v th tc php l
Thit k, t vn & qun l
D phng ph

PH LC 2

Tng cng

1
2009

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%

100%
30%

40%
40%
20%

2
2010

70%
50%
30%
30%
30%
20%

Trang 2 of 13

3
2011

4
2012

50%
30%
50%
20%
20%
20%

40%
50%
10%
10%
40%

THM NNH TI CHNH KHU PHC HP DYNAMIC - PHNG N BN TT C CC HNG MC

BNG 1
NHNG GI NNH CHNH
Chi ph pht trin
Chi ph t
Chi ph s dng t

$2.500

Chi ph cng
Xy dng c s h tng v cc khu vc cng cng
Chi ph n b gii ta
Xy dng khu u xe
Xy dng khu thng mi
Xy dng khu cn h bn
Xy dng khu cao c vn phng
Chi ph mm
Chi ph tip th v th tc php l
Chi ph thit k, t vn & qun l
D phng ph
Tng chi ph pht trin
C cu vn
Tng vn ch s hu
Vn ch s hu
Vn huy ng t khch hng
Cn h bn
Tng n vay
Vay ngn hng (50%)
Tng cng

PH LC 2

25.000.000
25.000.000

1
2009
25.000.000
25.000.000

82.017.580
400.000

1.984.000
400.000

28.507.003

33.212.263

32.126.783

5.280.000
15.840.000
49.077.600
11.419.980

1.584.000
-

4.000.181
8.571.816
15.935.006
-

9.277.276
17.246.457
6.688.530

24.887.787
7.238.996

3.772.809
984.211
1.640.352
1.148.246
30.756.809

3.116.668
738.158
1.230.264
1.148.246
31.623.671

2.460.527
492.105
820.176
1.148.246
35.672.791

2.952.633
246.053
410.088
2.296.492
35.079.416

1
2009
22.452.470
22.452.470
8.304.338
8.304.338
30.756.809

2
2010
8.081.772
10.102.215
23.541.898
23.541.898
31.623.671

3
2011
35.672.791
53.155.090
-

4
2012
35.079.416
51.755.977
-

35.672.791

35.079.416

Tng cng

3%
5%
7%

Phn trm
17%
59%
24%
100%

12.302.637
2.460.527
4.100.879
5.741.231
133.132.686
Tng cng
22.452.470
22.452.470
78.833.979
31.846.237
31.846.237
133.132.686

2
2010
-

3
2011
-

Trang 3 of 13

4
2012
-

THM NNH TI CHNH KHU PHC HP DYNAMIC - PHNG N BN TT C CC HNG MC

BNG 2
LNCH THANH TON KHON VAY
Khon n vay trong giai on xy dng
Thng
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24

Khon vay/thng
$692.028
$692.028
$692.028
$692.028
$692.028
$692.028
$692.028
$692.028
$692.028
$692.028
$692.028
$692.028
$1.961.825
$1.961.825
$1.961.825
$1.961.825
$1.961.825
$1.961.825
$1.961.825
$1.961.825
$1.961.825
$1.961.825
$1.961.825
$1.961.825

Tng cng

PH LC 2

$31.846.237

Khon vay/nm

$8.304.338

$23.541.898

Khon n vay tr dn trong giai on xy dng

Khon vay = $31.846.237
Thng
Rt khon vay
1
$692.028
2
$692.028
3
$692.028
4
$692.028
5
$692.028
6
$692.028
7
$692.028
8
$692.028
9
$692.028
10
$692.028
11
$692.028
12
$692.028
13
$1.961.825
14
$1.961.825
15
$1.961.825
16
$1.961.825
17
$1.961.825
18
$1.961.825
19
$1.961.825
20
$1.961.825
21
$1.961.825
22
$1.961.825
23
$1.961.825
24
$1.961.825
Tng cng

$31.846.237

Li sut
12%
12%
12%
12%
12%
12%
12%
12%
12%
12%
12%
12%
12%
12%
12%
12%
12%
12%
12%
12%
12%
12%
12%
12%

Tng khon vay (Li + gc) =

Li
Khon vay
$692.028
$6.920
$698.948
$13.910
$705.938
$20.969
$712.997
$28.099
$720.127
$35.300
$727.329
$42.574
$734.602
$49.920
$741.948
$57.339
$749.367
$64.833
$756.861
$72.401
$764.430
$80.046
$772.074
$87.766
$2.049.591
$108.262
$2.070.087
$128.963
$2.090.788
$149.871
$2.111.696
$170.988
$2.132.813
$192.316
$2.154.141
$213.858
$2.175.683
$235.614
$2.197.439
$257.589
$2.219.414
$279.783
$2.241.608
$302.199
$2.264.024
$324.839
$2.286.664
$2.924.362

$34.770.598
D n
$692.028
$1.390.977
$2.096.915
$2.809.912
$3.530.039
$4.257.368
$4.991.970
$5.733.918
$6.483.285
$7.240.146
$8.004.576
$8.776.650
$10.826.241
$12.896.328
$14.987.116
$17.098.813
$19.231.626
$21.385.767
$23.561.449
$25.758.889
$27.978.302
$30.219.910
$32.483.934
$34.770.598

Tng khon n
S nm
Li sut/nm
S ln thanh ton/nm
S ln thanh ton

34.770.598
2
12%
4
8

STT.

Lch tr n
N gc

Li vay

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8

($3.910.176)
($4.027.481)
($4.148.306)
($4.272.755)
($4.400.937)
($4.532.966)
($4.668.955)
($4.809.023)

($1.043.118)
($925.813)
($804.988)
($680.539)
($552.356)
($420.328)
($284.339)
($144.271)

Tng cng

($34.770.598)

($4.855.753)

Tng cng Thanh ton theo

nm
($4.953.294)
($4.953.294)
($4.953.294)
($4.953.294)
($19.813.176)
($4.953.294)
($4.953.294)
($4.953.294)
($4.953.294)
($19.813.176)

$34.770.598

Trang 4 of 13

($39.626.351)

THM NNH TI CHNH KHU PHC HP DYNAMIC - PHNG N BN TT C CC HNG MC

BNG 3
KHU HAO CHI PH PHT TRIN
Giai on Tng gi tr khu hao
Nm
Hng mc bn
133.132.686
Khu cn h bn
72.872.628
Khu thng mi
28.027.934
Khu vn phng
18.218.157
Khu u xe
14.013.967
Tng cng
133.132.686

PH LC 2

1
2009

2
2010
6.400.782
6.400.782

6.400.782

3
2011
33.679.163
33.679.163
5.605.587
3.643.631
2.802.793
45.731.175

4
2012
32.792.683
32.792.683
22.422.347
14.574.526
11.211.174
81.000.729

Trang 5 of 13

THM NNH TI CHNH KHU PHC HP DYNAMIC - PHNG N BN TT C CC HNG MC

BNG 4
DOANH THU V CHI PH D KIN
Giai on
Nm

1
2009

Doanh thu
Khu cn h bn
Khu thng mi
Khu vn phng
Khu u xe
Tng doanh thu

2
2010
10.862.597

10.862.597

Chi ph
Khu cn h bn
Khu thng mi
Khu vn phng
Khu u xe
Tng chi ph

760.382

760.382

Thu nhp trc li, thu, khu hao v n (EBITDA)

10.102.215

3
2011

4
2012

57.156.011 55.651.588
8.312.059 33.248.237
4.208.724 16.834.896
740.739
2.962.957
70.417.533 108.697.678

4.000.921
581.844
294.611
51.852
4.929.227

3.895.611
2.327.377
1.178.443
207.407
7.608.837

65.488.306 101.088.841

Khu hao chi ph pht trin

6.400.782

45.731.175

81.000.729

Thu nhp trc li v thu (EBIT)

3.701.433

19.757.131

20.088.112

3.454.458

1.401.295

3.701.433

16.302.673

18.686.817

925.358

4.075.668

4.671.704

2.776.075

12.227.005

14.015.113

Li vay
Thu nhp trc thu (EBT)
Thu thu nhp doanh nghip
Li nhun thun

PH LC 2

25%

Trang 6 of 13

THM NNH TI CHNH KHU PHC HP DYNAMIC - PHNG N BN TT C CC HNG MC

BNG 5
DNG TIN D KIN
Giai on
Nm
Dng tin vo
Rt khon vay
Thu nhp trc li, thu, khu hao (EBITDA)
Tng dng tin vo
Dng tin ra
Chi ph pht trin
Thanh ton khon vay
Thu thu nhp doanh nghip
Tng dng tin ra
Dng tin thun
Dng tin thun cng dn
T sut chit khu

8.304.338

2
2010

8.304.338

23.541.898
10.102.215
33.644.114

30.756.809

31.623.671

30.756.809
(22.452.470)
(22.452.470)

3
2011

4
2012

65.488.306
65.488.306

101.088.841
101.088.841

925.358
32.549.029

35.672.791
19.813.176
4.075.668
59.561.634

35.079.416
19.813.176
4.671.704
59.564.296

1.095.085
(21.357.386)

5.926.671
(15.430.714)

41.524.545
26.093.831

16%

Thi hn (n)
H s hin gi (PVIF)
Hin gi ca dng tin thun
Hin gi thun ca D n (NPV)
T sut thu hi ni b (IRR)
Ch s sinh li (PI)
Thi gian hon vn (PP)
Thi gian hon vn c chit khu (DPP)

PH LC 2

1
2009

1,0
0,862
(19.355.578)
8.188.853
31,6%
1,09
3,37
3,64

2,0
0,743

3,0
0,641

4,0
0,552

813.826

3.796.968

22.933.637

Trang 7 of 13

THM NNH TI CHNH KHU PHC HP DYNAMIC - PHNG N BN TT C CC HNG MC

BNG 6
CHI PH V DOANH THU D KIN KHU CN H BN
Khu cn h bn

n v

Tng cng

Nm 2011
Q1

Q2

Nm 2012
Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Nm 2013
Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Cn h
Din tch c th bn
T l bn d kin

53.040
100%

Din tch bn c

m2

53.040

1.800

1.800

USD/m
Gi bn d kin
Tc tng gi (chu k mi nm)
17,84%
TNG DOANH THU D KIN
TIN THC THU
Chi ph tip th
1%
Chi ph hoa hng
2%
Chi ph php l v dch v
1%
Chi ph khc
3%
Thu nhp trc li, thu v khu hao (EBITDA)
Lch biu thanh ton
Khu cn h bn

PH LC 2

1.800
17,84%
123.670.196
123.670.196
1.236.702
2.473.404
1.236.702
3.710.106
115.013.282

10%
5.304
1.961
8,9%
10.398.810
3.258.779
32.588
65.176
32.588
97.763
3.030.665

10%

10%

5.304
1.961
10.398.810
7.603.818
76.038
152.076
76.038
228.115
7.071.551

5.304
2.135
8,9%
11.326.384
5.873.529
58.735
117.471
58.735
176.206
5.462.382

Nm 2011
Q3/2011
Q4/2011
Q1/2012
Q2/2012
Q3/2012
Q4/2012
Q1/2013
Q2/2013
Q3/2013
Q4/2013

100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%

15%

10%
25%

Trang 8 of 13

5%
5%
30%

10%
5.304
2.135
11.326.384
10.513.388
105.134
210.268
105.134
315.402
9.777.451
Nm 2012
10%
10%
10%
40%

10%
5.304
2.326
8,9%
12.336.698
28.402.075
284.021
568.041
284.021
852.062
26.413.929

5%
5%
5%
5%
45%

10%
5.304
2.326
12.336.698
12.367.020
123.670
247.340
123.670
371.011
11.501.328

10%
10%
10%
10%
10%
55%

10%
5.304
2.533
8,9%
13.437.131
6.183.510
61.835
123.670
61.835
185.505
5.750.664

5%
5%
5%
5%
5%
5%
60%

15%
7.956
2.533
20.155.697
12.367.020
123.670
247.340
123.670
371.011
11.501.328
Nm 2013
10%
10%
10%
10%
10%
10%
10%
70%

15%
7.956
2.759
8,9%
21.953.585
30.917.549
309.175
618.351
309.175
927.526
28.753.321

25%
25%
25%
25%
25%
25%
25%
25%
95%

6.183.510
61.835
123.670
61.835
185.505
5.750.664

5%
5%
5%
5%
5%
5%
5%
5%
5%
100%

THM NNH TI CHNH KHU PHC HP DYNAMIC - PHNG N BN TT C CC HNG MC

BNG 7
CHI PH V DOANH THU D KIN KHU THNG MI
Khu thng mi

n v

Tng cng

Nm 2011
Q1

Q2

Nm 2012
Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Nm 2013
Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Khu thng mi
Din tch c th bn
T l bn d kin

20.400
100%

Din tch bn c

m2

20.400

20.400

1.993

1.993

2.008

2.037
0,74%
-

2.037

2.022
0,74%
-

2.022

2.008
0,74%
-

USD/m
Gi bn d kin
Tc tng gi (chu k mi nm)
1,47%
TNG DOANH THU D KIN
S TIN THC THU
Chi ph tip th
1%
Chi ph hoa hng
2%
Chi ph php l v dch v
1%
Chi ph khc
3%
Thu nhp trc li, thu v khu hao (EBITDA)
Lch biu thanh ton
Khu cn h bn

PH LC 2

1.993
1,47%
41.560.297
41.560.297
415.603
831.206
415.603
1.246.809
38.651.076

100%

Nm 2011
Q3/2011

41.560.297
8.312.059
83.121
166.241
83.121
249.362
7.730.215

2.052
0,74%
10.390.074
103.901
207.801
103.901
311.702
9.662.769

Nm 2012

100%

20%

Trang 9 of 13

25%

2.052
10.390.074
103.901
207.801
103.901
311.702
9.662.769
Nm 2013
25%

2.067
0,74%
10.390.074
103.901
207.801
103.901
311.702
9.662.769

25%

2.078.015
20.780
41.560
20.780
62.340
1.932.554

5%

THM NNH TI CHNH KHU PHC HP DYNAMIC - PHNG N BN TT C CC HNG MC

BNG 8
CHI PH V DOANH THU D KIN VN PHNG CHO THU
Vn phng cho thu

n v

Tng cng

Nm 2011
Q1

Q2

Nm 2012
Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Nm 2013
Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Vn phng cho thu

Din tch c th bn
T l bn d kin

13.260
100%

Din tch bn c

m2

13.260

13.260

1.587

1.587

1.587

1.587

1.587

1.587

1.587

1.587

1.587

1.587

1.587

1.587

21.043.620
4.208.724
42.087
84.174
42.087
126.262
3.914.113

5.260.905
52.609
105.218
52.609
157.827
4.892.642

5.260.905
52.609
105.218
52.609
157.827
4.892.642

5.260.905
52.609
105.218
52.609
157.827
4.892.642

USD/m
Gi bn d kin
Tc tng gi (chu k mi nm)
6,5%
TNG DOANH THU D KIN
S TIN THC THU
Chi ph tip th
1%
Chi ph hoa hng
2%
Chi ph php l v dch v
1%
Chi ph khc
3%
Thu nhp trc li, thu v khu hao (EBITDA)
Lch biu thanh ton
Khu cn h bn

PH LC 2

21.043.620
21.043.620
210.436
420.872
210.436
631.309
19.570.567

100%

Nm 2011
Q3/2011

Nm 2012

100%

20%

Trang 10 of 13

25%

Nm 2013
25%

25%

1.052.181
10.522
21.044
10.522
31.565
978.528

5%

THM NNH TI CHNH KHU PHC HP DYNAMIC - PHNG N BN TT C CC HNG MC

BNG 9
CHI PH V DOANH THU D KIN CH U XE
Khu cn h bn
Ch u xe my
S ch c th bn
T l bn d kin
S ch bn c
Gi bn d kin
Tc tng gi (chu k mi nm)
Ch u xe hi
S ch c th bn
T l bn d kin
S ch bn c
Gi bn d kin
Tc tng gi (chu k mi nm)

Lch biu thanh ton

Khu cn h bn

PH LC 2

Nm 2011

n v

Tng cng

ch

2.016
100%
2.016
1.587

1.587

1.587

134
100%
134
1.587

1.587

ch
USD/ch
5%
ch
ch
USD/ch

TNG DOANH THU D KIN

S TIN THC THU
Chi ph tip th
Chi ph hoa hng
Chi ph php l v dch v
Chi ph khc
Thu nhp trc li, thu v khu hao (EBITDA)

1%
2%
1%
3%

3.703.696
3.703.696
37.037
74.074
37.037
111.111
3.444.437

Q1

Q2

Nm 2012
Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q4

1.666
5,0%

1.666

1.750
5,0%

1.750

1.837
5,0%

1.587

1.587

1.587

1.587

1.587

1.587

Nm 2011
Q3/2011

Nm 2013
Q3

Q1

100%
2.016
1.837

100%
2.016
1.587

3.703.696
740.739
7.407
14.815
7.407
22.222
688.887

Q2

20%

Trang 11 of 13

Q4

1.929
5,0%

1.929

2.025
5,0%

1.587

1.587

1.587

925.924
9.259
18.518
9.259
27.778
861.109

925.924
9.259
18.518
9.259
27.778
861.109

925.924
9.259
18.518
9.259
27.778
861.109

Nm 2012

100%

Q3

25%

Nm 2013
25%

25%

185.185
1.852
3.704
1.852
5.556
172.222

5%

THM NNH TI CHNH KHU PHC HP DYNAMIC - PHNG N BN TT C CC HNG MC

BNG 10

PHN TCH NHY

Thay i gi bn cn h (%/nm)

Thay i gi bn cn h (%/nm)

17,84%
8.188.853
6,18%
8,51%
10,84%
13,18%
15,51%
17,84%
20,17%
22,50%
24,84%
27,17%
29,50%

31,65%
6,18%
8,51%
10,84%
13,18%
15,51%
17,84%
20,17%
22,50%
24,84%
27,17%
29,50%

PH LC 2

8,23%
6,31%
149.357
1.664.407
3.224.769
4.831.548
6.485.862
8.188.853
9.941.677
11.745.512
13.601.554
15.511.018
17.475.139

6,31%
16,3%
19,3%
22,4%
25,5%
28,5%
31,6%
34,8%
37,9%
41,1%
44,2%
47,4%

6,69%
149.357
1.664.407
3.224.769
4.831.548
6.485.862
8.188.853
9.941.677
11.745.512
13.601.554
15.511.018
17.475.139

6,69%
16,3%
19,3%
22,4%
25,5%
28,5%
31,6%
34,8%
37,9%
41,1%
44,2%
47,4%

7,08%
149.357
1.664.407
3.224.769
4.831.548
6.485.862
8.188.853
9.941.677
11.745.512
13.601.554
15.511.018
17.475.139

Thay i chi ph xy dng (%/nm)

7,46%
7,85%
8,23%
149.357
149.357
149.357
1.664.407
1.664.407
1.664.407
3.224.769
3.224.769
3.224.769
4.831.548
4.831.548
4.831.548
6.485.862
6.485.862
6.485.862
8.188.853
8.188.853
8.188.853
9.941.677
9.941.677
9.941.677
11.745.512
11.745.512
11.745.512
13.601.554
13.601.554
13.601.554
15.511.018
15.511.018
15.511.018
17.475.139
17.475.139
17.475.139

8,61%
149.357
1.664.407
3.224.769
4.831.548
6.485.862
8.188.853
9.941.677
11.745.512
13.601.554
15.511.018
17.475.139

9,00%
149.357
1.664.407
3.224.769
4.831.548
6.485.862
8.188.853
9.941.677
11.745.512
13.601.554
15.511.018
17.475.139

9,38%
149.357
1.664.407
3.224.769
4.831.548
6.485.862
8.188.853
9.941.677
11.745.512
13.601.554
15.511.018
17.475.139

9,77%
149.357
1.664.407
3.224.769
4.831.548
6.485.862
8.188.853
9.941.677
11.745.512
13.601.554
15.511.018
17.475.139

10,15%
149.357
1.664.407
3.224.769
4.831.548
6.485.862
8.188.853
9.941.677
11.745.512
13.601.554
15.511.018
17.475.139

7,08%
16,3%
19,3%
22,4%
25,5%
28,5%
31,6%
34,8%
37,9%
41,1%
44,2%
47,4%

Thay i chi ph xy dng (%/nm)

7,46%
7,85%
8,23%
16,3%
16,3%
16,3%
19,3%
19,3%
19,3%
22,4%
22,4%
22,4%
25,5%
25,5%
25,5%
28,5%
28,5%
28,5%
31,6%
31,6%
31,6%
34,8%
34,8%
34,8%
37,9%
37,9%
37,9%
41,1%
41,1%
41,1%
44,2%
44,2%
44,2%
47,4%
47,4%
47,4%

8,61%
16,3%
19,3%
22,4%
25,5%
28,5%
31,6%
34,8%
37,9%
41,1%
44,2%
47,4%

9,00%
16,3%
19,3%
22,4%
25,5%
28,5%
31,6%
34,8%
37,9%
41,1%
44,2%
47,4%

9,38%
16,3%
19,3%
22,4%
25,5%
28,5%
31,6%
34,8%
37,9%
41,1%
44,2%
47,4%

9,77%
16,3%
19,3%
22,4%
25,5%
28,5%
31,6%
34,8%
37,9%
41,1%
44,2%
47,4%

10,15%
16,3%
19,3%
22,4%
25,5%
28,5%
31,6%
34,8%
37,9%
41,1%
44,2%
47,4%

Trang 12 of 13

THM NNH TI CHNH KHU PHC HP DYNAMIC - PHNG N BN TT C CC HNG MC

BNG 11
PHN TCH TNH HUNG

Scenario Summary
Current Values:

Trng hp xu nht Trng hp c kh nng xy ra

Changing Cells:
$D$44
8,23%
6,31%
$D$45
17,84%
0,62%
$D$46
6,45%
-4,63%
$D$47
1,47%
1,77%
Result Cells:
$D$33
8.188.853
9.794.364
$D$34
31,6%
34,5%
$D$35
1,09
1,11
$D$36
3,37
3,33
$D$37
3,64
3,59
Notes: Current Values column represents values of changing cells at
time Scenario Summary Report was created. Changing cells for each
scenario are highlighted in gray.

PH LC 2

Trang 13 of 13

Trng hp tt nht

7,27%
21,57%
4,20%
-1,67%

10,15%
29,50%
7,20%
11,13%

8.198.431
31,7%
1,09
3,37
3,64

9.114.819
33,1%
1,10
3,36
3,62

CC D N NH CAO CP TI KHU VC KHO ST

Tn D n

The Everich
Ch u t: Cng ty Pht t
a ch: ngay gc ng L i Hnh v
3/2, Qun 11

Ph Th Thun Vit
Ch u t: Cng ty LD Thun Vit
a ch: Khu thng mi Ph Th Thun
Vit , L Thng kit, Qun 11

Ph Nhun
Ch u t: Cng ty TNHH Phng Hong
a ch: 20 Hong Minh Gim, Ph Nhun

Phc Yn
Ch u t: Cng ty Phc Yn
a ch: 2/11A Phan Huy ch, Phng 5,
Qun Tn Bnh

Hnh minh ha

Nm khi cng

2006

Q4/05

Q3/06

Q1/07

Nm d kin
hon thnh

2008

Q4/08

Q4/08

2009

T l bn

100%

100%

100%

100%

2,000 2,500
(Gi bn khi im: 1,000)

1,700 1,900
(Gi bn khi im: 877)

1,900 2,300
(Gi kh im: 880)

950 1,200
(Initial price: 600)

Gi bn
(US$/m2, khng
bao gm VAT)

Quy m d n

362
(2 khi nh 26 tng, 10 cn h/ sn)
Loi 2 phng ng: 119cn h (33%)
Loi 3 phng ng: 230 cn h (64%)
Loi 4 phng ng: 5 cn h (1%)
Loi Penthouse: 8 cn h (2%)

PH LC 3

195
(4 khi nh 17 tng, 4 cn h/ sn)
Loi 2 phng ng: 78 cn h (40%)
Loi 3 phng ng: 117 cn h (60%)

Trang 1 of 1

129
(Khi nh 14 tng, 11 cn h/ sn)
Loi 2 phng ng: 70 cn h (54%)
Loi 3 phng ng: 55 cn h (43%)
Loi Penthouse: 4 cn h (5%)

360
(Khi nh 17 tng, 24 cn h/ sn)
Loi 2 phng ng: 336 cn h (93%)
Loi Penthouse: 24 cn h (7%)