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NY-18 Internal Poll For GOP Former Rep. Nan Hayworth's Campaign.
NY-18 Internal Poll For GOP Former Rep. Nan Hayworth's Campaign.
NY-18 Internal Poll For GOP Former Rep. Nan Hayworth's Campaign.
MEMORANDUM
TO: NANHAYWORTHFORCONGRESSCAMPAIGNTEAM
FROM: ROBERTBLIZZARDPUBLICOPINIONSTRATEGIES
DATE: OCTOBER14,2014
RE: RECENTNEWYORKCD18POLLINGRESULTS
OnbehalfofNanHayworthforCongress,PublicOpinionStrategiesconductedasurveyof400likely
voters(marginoferror+4.9%)inNewYorks18
th
CongressionalDistrict,October1213,2014.
Fully25%oftheinterviewswereconductedviacellphone,andthepartisanbreakdownofthesurveyis
32%Republican35%Democrat.
KEYFINDINGS
Inthelastfewweeks,NanHayworthhascutSeanMaloneysleadinhalf,trailingnowbyjustfour.
WiththreeweekstogountilElectionDay,Dr.HayworthtrailsCongressmanMaloneybyjustfour
points(39%43%)withthethirdpartycandidateScottSmithreceiving2%.Thisiscomparedtothe
midSeptemberSienaPoll,whichfoundHayworthdownbyeightpoints.
BOTTOMLINE
TheresareasonwhytheDCCCchangedplanslastweekandshiftedtheirresourcesaroundjusttohelp
SeanMaloney.ItsbecauseNanHayworthhassomemomentumintheraceforCongressinNewYorks
18
th
district.
Despitebeingoutspentsignificantlyoverthepastfewweeks,shehasactuallynarrowedMaloneyslead
ontheballot.ThisdataisprettyclearwiththreeweekstogountilElectionDay,NanHayworthis
withinstrikingdistanceofSeanMaloney.Thissituationiseerilysimilarto2012,whenDr.Hayworthhad
asevenpointleadintheOctober1617SienaPoll,onlytohaveitslipaway.
BottomlineiftheHayworthcampaignisabletoappropriatelyfundpaidmediaforthefinalpushtoget
Nansmessageouttovotersinthedistrict,shecanwinbackthiscongressionalseatonNovember4
th
.