Understanding opinion surveys POLL resultsarenot to betaken lightly or readily accepted at face value, ‘This is a reminder on considering results of opinion polls, said Carole Sarthou, managing director of Syno- vate Inc., inthe recently held Market- ing and Opinion Research Society of the Philippines” (Moves) Fourth Gen- eral Membership Meeting, Sarthou joined Butch Africa, vice president of the Philippine Statistical Association (PSA); and Terry Solivas, amember of the board of directors of PSA, in a discussion on what to look for when presented with and report- ing the result of opinion polls The discussion is in line with a project currently being conducted by PSA-Mores, titled "Evaluating Opinion Polls.” The objective of PSA-Mores is to raise the consciousness of pollsters, the mediaand the publicaboutresponsible polling and reporting of results. “People should ask relevant ques tions pertaining to the gathering of data presented in each opinion poll,” added Sarthou. Solivas recommended that for ev- ery opinion survey that publishers comeacross, theyshould firstlook for potential biases in the poll results. Thiscan begained, hesaid, through careful scrutiny of the data and ask- ing relevant questions such as: Who conducted thepoll and whe sponsored it? [tisalsoimportantto knowdetails about the data collection, the ques- tions that were asked, and how the data were analyzed. Inaddition, itis also significant to know the profile of the sample that was used in the opinion poll. This is to ensure that it is aligned with the profile of the target population that it was meant to represent, inorder to avoid any skews or aver- or underrep- resentationof particular subsegments of the population. Knowing the types of questions asked would put things in perspective foranyonewhowants tointerpret the ¥esults, The timeframe when the poll was conducted also helps contextual- ize the results. Moreover, according to Africa, itis imperative that, other than checking, for the details concerning the gather- ing of data for the opinion poll, pub- lishers and readers shouldcheckif the statistical organization that released the results is a trustworthy one, “if the pollster is not willing to give all of the data that has been pre- sented here, then maybe you should just forget aboutit,” said Africa, “It is nice to know, but you shouldn't lose sleep about it.” UP profs question veracity of poll surveys ‘TWO professors of the University of the Philippines, meanwhile, assailed as “full of inconsistencies” news re- portson recentelectoralsurveys inan apparent attempt to unduly influence public perceptions in favor of certain presidential candidates. “The professors noted that news re- portsonwhat wasflauntedasthelatest poll showing the sudden surge of ppro- administration presidential candidate Gilbert Teodoro were “disturbingly in- consistent with previous surveys.” Prospero de Vera Ill, professor of UP’s College of Public Administration and Governance, said the wide dis- crepancies in the findings of recent Social Weather Stations, Pulse Asia and the Advocacy Center need to be publicly explained, otherwise it will put in question all surveys leading to the May 2010 election. A published report on a survey purportedly conducted by a so-called Advocacy Centerconducted the“poll” among 1,200 respondents showing a decrease in the lead of presidential candidate Sen. Benigno Aquino II! over Sen, Manny Villar and a surge in the support for Teodoro. Forher part, Roxanne Girlie Cipria- no of the Department of Communica- tion Research of the UP College of Mass Communication noted that the survey reportis“full ofinconsistencies"—and thus “the survey is not credible.” jpriano noted that even the ter- minologies used by theallegedsurvey group “do not fit the time-honored lingo and practice of the science of research.” She said there is no such thing as a “stationary dive,” “signifi- cantly dropped,” or “pro-rated.” “The wrong.use of such terminolo- gies raises serious questions about the professional competence of the so-called research group.” DeVera, whohasconsistentlyealled for public presentations of survey groups, said: “Itistimethatwedemand more accountability from the groups behind these surveys, including their owners, directors and analysts, and who pays for their surveys.”