Attachment 1 ORED Enrollment Forecast

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Stafford County Public Schools Out-of-Capacity Table by Level - Design Capacities

OREd Student Generation Factor


Capacities

Pre-K

2014-15

2015-16

2016-17

18
32

743
881
538
607
514
564
791
554
764
852
681
624
611
786
697
847
716

760
910
535
628
517
573
801
584
776
887
689
598
613
820
704
880
738

762
912
536
628
516
572
803
586
778
886
690
599
611
821
704
883
746

789
966
565
647
531
560
820
604
814
897
716
594
612
849
727
908
842

814
999
583
636
538
563
805
614
829
905
717
552
587
845
731
896
923

813
1013
576
630
539
559
784
614
829
898
723
547
582
847
737
897
960

814
1011
582
629
552
558
781
618
817
900
721
551
582
844
735
902
1014

170

11770

12014

12033

12439

12537

12549

1100
650
1100
1100
1100
1100
1100
920

796
493
926
852
1104
910
489
784

788
562
922
879
1145
940
481
741

776
605
915
902
1120
967
510
780

788
656
856
900
1093
965
532
764

800
671
860
937
1057
1009
563
778

8170

8170

6354

6458

6573

6554

2000
2000
2000
1925
2000

2000
2000
2000
1925
2000

2000
2000
2000
1925
2000

1758
1964
1814
1645
1874

1757
1971
1815
1647
1885

1782
2033
1721
1639
1923

9925

9925

9925

9925

9055

9074

32690

32690

32908

33858

27179

27546

2015-16

2016-17

2017-18

2018-19

2019-20

2020-21

2023-24

2012-13

950
950
794
732
768
754
950
649
950
950
754
843
843
950
794
843
925

950
950
794
732
768
754
950
649
950
950
754
843
843
950
794
843
925

950
950
794
732
768
754
950
649
950
950
754
843
843
950
794
843
925

950
950
794
732
768
754
950
649
950
950
950
843
843
950
794
843
925

950
950
794
732
768
754
950
649
950
950
950
843
843
950
794
843
925

950
950
794
732
768
754
950
649
950
950
950
843
843
950
794
843
925

950
950
794
950
768
754
950
649
950
950
950
843
843
950
794
843
925

950
950
794
950
768
754
950
649
950
950
950
843
843
950
794
843
925
950

7
19

Totals

14399

14399

14399

14595

14595

14595

14813

15763

Grades 6-8
DIXON SMITH MS
DREW MS
GAYLE MS
HH POOLE MS
RODNEY E THOMPSON MS
SHIRLEY C HEIM MS
STAFFORD MS
WRIGHT MS

1100
650
1100
1100
1100
1100
1100
920

1100
650
1100
1100
1100
1100
1100
920

1100
650
1100
1100
1100
1100
1100
920

1100
650
1100
1100
1100
1100
1100
920

1100
650
1100
1100
1100
1100
1100
920

1100
650
1100
1100
1100
1100
1100
920

1100
650
1100
1100
1100
1100
1100
920

Totals

8170

8170

8170

8170

8170

8170

Grades 9-12
BROOKE POINT HS
COLONIAL FORGE HS
MOUNTAIN VIEW HS
NORTH STAFFORD HS
STAFFORD HS

1800
1875
1800
1925
1850

1800
1875
1800
1925
2000

2000
2000
1800
1925
2000

2000
2000
2000
1925
2000

2000
2000
2000
1925
2000

Totals

9250

9400

9725

9925

System Totals

31819

31969

32294

32690

Grades K-5
ANTHONY BURNS ES
CONWAY ES
FALMOUTH ES
FERRY FARM ES
GARRISONVILLE ES
GRAFTON VILLAGE ES
HAMPTON OAKS ES
HARTWOOD ES
KATE WALLER BARRETT ES
MARGARET BRENT ES
MONCURE ES
PARK RIDGE ES
ROCKHILL ES
ROCKY RUN ES
STAFFORD ES
WIDEWATER ES
WINDING CREEK ES
ES 18 (open 2023, capacity = 950)

Projected Month-1 Membership


2017-18
2018-19
2019-20
2020-21

Month-1
2013-14

2014-15

19
29

11
17
18

170

2021-22

2022-23

2023-24

827
1010
592
625
556
560
775
624
815
898
722
542
571
842
738
907
1055

824
1010
594
623
556
561
772
627
819
898
721
543
565
842
740
910
1078

817
1013
600
625
562
560
762
644
818
904
723
534
544
843
739
930
1171

818
1017
602
622
564
553
758
664
811
906
718
533
542
838
731
962
1306

12611

12657

12684

12788

12946

801
707
871
965
1083
1031
548
780

818
722
927
1070
1127
1076
587
792

828
731
960
1131
1152
1104
609
799

835
737
977
1160
1166
1119
613
790

839
738
986
1176
1173
1127
616
786

826
740
971
1201
1175
1131
604
777

6675

6787

7120

7313

7398

7441

7424

1809
2081
1742
1637
2038

1884
2132
1712
1727
2153

1942
2126
1723
1722
2211

1946
2127
1722
1719
2208

2046
2232
1697
1744
2253

2119
2311
1756
1747
2275

2181
2376
1773
1756
2298

2295
2587
1851
1757
2390

9099

9307

9609

9725

9722

9972

10207

10383

10879

27705

28300

28820

29061

29452

29942

30289

30612

31249

Capacity Legend
< 95%

August 18, 2014

95% - 100%

100% - 105%

> 105%

Operations Research and Education Laboratory


Institute for Transportation Research and Education
North Carolina State University

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