BI TP QUN TR CHUI CUNG NG CHNG

:
Bi 1: Cng ty Thnh Tm chuyn doanh my vi tnh. Sn lng bn trong
su thng qua minh ha biu sau
Thng
1
2
3
4
5
6

Doanh s
18000
22000
16000
18000
20000
24000

a. V d liu trn.
b. D bo nhu cu cho thng 7 s dng cc k thut sau:
(1) Bnh qun trt 4 giai on
(2) Bnh qun trt c trng s vi trng s tng ng 0.5 cho thng
6, 0.3 cho thng 5 v 0.2 cho thng 4.
(3) D bo xu hng tuyn tnh
(4) San bng m vi h s san bng 0.4, gi s rng nhu cu d bo
cho thng 2 l 18000.
(5) Phng php san bng m c iu chnh xu hng (gi s bnh
qun trt cho thng 2 l 22000 v xu hng trt l 1300, S dng
h s san bng 0.2 v h s trt xu hng l 0.4).
Bi 2: S liu d bo t hai k thut c s dng tng ng nh sau:
Thng
1
2
3
4

Sn lng
269
289
294
278

D bo 1
275
266
290
284

D bo 2
168
287
292
298

5
268
270
274
6
269
268
270
7
261
261
259
8
275
271
275
Tnh cc ch tiu MSE, MAD v MAPE v tn hiu theo di cho mi
phng php d bo. Phng php no tt hn? Ti sao?
Bi Gii
Cu 1:
a)v d liu trn:

b) D bo nhu cu c thng 7 s dng cc k thut sau:

1.

Bnh qun trt 4 giai on:

D bo nhu cu cho thng 7 s dng bnh qun trt 4 giai on:
t

p dng cng thc Ft+1=

i t n 1

ta c d bo nhu cu cho thng 7 :

F7=

16000 18000 20000 24000

19500
4

Vy nhu cu d bo cho thng 7 l 19500.

2.

Bnh qun trt c trng s tng ng 0.5 cho thng 6 , 0.3 cho thng
5 v 0.2 cho thng 4
t

p dng cng thc d bo F t+1=

i t n 1

* Ai

Ta c d bo nhu cu cho thng 7 : F7=0.2*18000+0.3*20000+0.5*24000=21600

Vy nhu cu d bo cho thng 7 l 21600
3.

D bo xu hng tuyn tnh:

Thng( x)
1
2
3
4
5
6
x 21
b1=

Nhu cu (y)
18000
22000
16000
18000
20000
24000
y 118000

n ( xy ) x y
n x ( x )

bo=

y b1 x
n

x2
1
4
9
16
25
36
x 2 =91

6( 426000) 21(118000 )
=742.857
6(91) (21) 2

118000 742.857 * 21
17066.667
6

xy
18000
44000
48000
72000
100000
144000
xy 426000

ng d bo l :

Y 17066.667+742.857X

D bo cho thng 7 ta thay x=7 vo phng trnh xu th trn v ta c:

Vy nhu cu d bo cho thng 7 l=17066.667+742.857*7=22266.666
4.

San bng m vi h s san bng 0.4 gi s nhu cu d bo cho thng 2 l

18000

p dng cng thc F t+1=At +(1-)Ft vi =0.4 v F2=18000

T
F3=A2+(1-)F2=0.4*22000+(1-0.4)*18000=19600
F4=A3+(1-)F3=0.4*16000+(1-0.4)*19600=18160
F5=A4+(1-)F4=0.4*18000+(1-0.4)*18160=18096
F6=A5+(1-)F5=0.4*20000+(1-0.4)*18096=18857.6
F7=A6+(1-)F6=0.4*24000+(1-0.4)*18857.6=20914.56
Vy nhu cu d bo cho thng 7 l 20914.56
5.

Phng php san bng m c iu chnh xu hng(gi s bnh qun trt

cho thng 2 l 22000 v xu hng trt l 1300,s dng h s san bng l 0.2 v
h s trt xu hng l 0.4
p dng cc cng thc : Ft= *At+(1- )(Ft-1+Tt-1)
Tt=(Ft-Ft-1)+(1- )Tt-1
V d bo iu chnh xu hng TAF t+m=Ft+mTt vi F2=22000,T2=1300, =0.4,
=0.2, A3=16000
Ta c
F3=0.2*16000+(1-0.2)*(22000+1300)=21840
T3=0.4*(21840-22000)+(1-0.4)*1300=716
Vy TAF7=F3+4*T3=21840+4*716=24704
Vy d bo c iu chnh xu hng cho thng 7 l 24704

Bi 2:
i vi k thut d bo 1:
Sai s
Giai

Sn lng

on

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8

269
289
294
278
268
269
261
275

D bo

Sai s

(e)

275
266
290
284
270
268
261
271
Tng

-6
23
4
-6
-2
1
0
4

cng
Trung
bnh
Tng sai s d bo: RSFE1 = 18
Tn hiu theo di = RSFE1/MAD = 18/5.75=3.13

i vi k thut d bo 2:

Sai s

bnh

tuyt

phng

trung
6
23
4
6
2
1
0
4

bnh
4.5
66.125
2
4.5
0.5
0.125
0
2

46

79.75

Sai s
phn
trm
tuyt i
0.27881
0.99481
0.170068
0.269784
0.093284
0.046468
0
0.181818
2.035042

5.75 9.96875
0.25438
MAD
MSE
MAPE

Sai s
Giai

Sn lng

on

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8

269
289
294
278
268
269
261
275

D bo

Sai s

(e)

168
287
292
298
274
270
259
275
Tng

Sai s

bnh

tuyt

phng

trung

101
2
2
-20
-6
-1
2
0

101
2
2
20
6
1
2
0

cng
Trung
bnh

134

bnh
1275.125
0.5
0.5
50
4.5
0.125
0.5
0

Sai s
phn
trm
tuyt i
4.693309
0.086505
0.085034
0.899281
0.279851
0.046468
0.095785
0

1331.25 6.186233

16.75 166.4063 0.773279

MAD
MSE
MAPE

Tng sai s d bo: RSFE2= 80

Tn hiu theo di = RSFE2/MAD = 80/16.75= 4.78
T kt qu trn th tn hiu d bo cho thy K thut u tin t sai lch hn.
ng thi sai s trung bnh ca d bo so vi thc t trong mi thi k k
thut 1 l 0.3, nh hn so vi k thut 2 l 0.8. V vy, k thut 1 s tt hn.